#FOMCRateCallThisWeek

The Fed decides on Wednesday. A week out, @Polymarket and @Kalshi both put a 25bp hike at 55%. That is the closest an FOMC contract has come to a coin flip this late: across 27 settled decisions since 2023, the leading outcome at the same point had a median of 96% and never fell below 79%. Even after August CPI landed on Friday morning, the 25bp hike odds moved from 57% to 80%, a major jump but still below the usual consensus. Polymarket and Kalshi in one schema, with three years of settled

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 87% chance the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 bps at tomorrow's FOMC meeting $BTC may drop because the price is already pricing in the news 🔽🔽

$BTC is facing a very different kind of test now. Not just a price test. A macro test. Bitcoin has climbed back above $70K after falling toward $60K in late August, but rising Treasury yields and expectations around the Fed are creating fresh pressure. At the same time, Bitcoin ETF demand has been showing renewed institutional interest. So I'm watching two things: Liquidity → can risk assets keep attracting capital? Demand → are buyers still willing to accumulate BTC around these levels? That's more interesting to me than trying to predict whether tomorrow's candle will be green or red. Price is the result. The flows and conditions behind it are what I want to understand. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks

“The Clarity Act won’t pass, so $BTC is going to dump further.” “A rate hike is expected tomorrow with FOMC, so BTC is going to dump even more.” Little do they know, the market has already priced in those expectations. That’s why it’s dumping BEFORE the news is released. By the time the news gives the crowd a reason to sell, they are already selling into the very bids that mark the bottom.

BTC holding flat while ETH slips 0.83% is a weak foundation for a broad risk-on call. SOL's marginal gain does little to change that read. With the FOMC rate call in focus, I read this as a market holding its ground, not building momentum. ETH's relative weakness is the detail that matters. Just my read, not advice.$BTC $ETH

$BTC holding flat while $ETH slips 0.83% is a weak foundation for a broad risk-on call. $SOL's marginal gain does little to change that read. With the FOMC rate call in focus, I read this as a market holding its ground, not building momentum. $ETH's relative weakness is the detail that matters. Just my read, not advice.$BTC $ETH

🚨 Worst-case setup for crypto: If the crypto bill fails while a rate hike gets pushed toward October, markets could see a serious risk-off move. A sharp sell-off could potentially drag $BTC toward $71.5K and $ETH toward $2.15K. Some of this risk may already be priced in, but the current weakness suggests downside pressure could still have room to play out. ⚠️ Stay cautious around the FOMC. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged

The most bearish scenario: if the crypto bill fails and a rate hike is pushed to October, crypto could face a major risk-off event. A sharp daily sell-off could send $BTC toward $71.5K and $ETH toward $2.15K. The market may already be pricing in these risks, but current weakness suggests the pain may not be fully reflected yet. Stay cautious around the FOMC. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged

$BTC $ETH $ZEC The 25bp Fed hike landed, yet Bitcoin spot ETFs still saw ~$160M in net inflows. 👀 Markets often price in hikes before they happen, so the actual decision can become “old news.” BTC is now around $78K–$79K, with $82,470 as the key 50-week MA. A clean break and hold above it could signal stronger momentum. Can BTC reclaim $82.5K? 📈 #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow

All the negative news for $BTC has come out, so does that mean it's good news?? Have you ever thought about this question: since the probability of a rate hike has reached 90%, why hasn't the price dropped yet? Could it be because everyone already knows that the rate hike is basically certain, so after that round of decline, the impact of the rate hike won't cause much more volatility#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #CLARITYVoteStillDivided