#AugPayrollsBeat
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About AugPayrollsBeat
US Aug nonfarm payrolls rose 162K, far above expectations of under 60K, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Forecasts had ranged from a 25K drop to a 121K gain, so the print cleared the top of the range. Swaps now price a September Fed hike above 60%, versus roughly 50% on CME futures beforehand. CPI lands Sep 11 and the FOMC meets Sep 15 to 16. BofA calls payrolls the appetizer and CPI the main course and still expects a hike; Morgan Stanley sees a hold, with August core CPI at 0.23% MoM.
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US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly exceeding expectations
Wu reported that in the US, seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, exceeding the market expectation of an increase of 56,000, with the previous value being a decrease of 23,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings in August rose 3.1% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.0%; month-over-month they increased by 0.3%, meeting expectations.
September 🔥 & August 💥 2026
A stronger-than-expected rebound in U.S. nonfarm payrolls could add fresh pressure to the Fed’s September rate decision. Markets had already been pricing in elevated odds of a 25-basis-point hike, and the surprisingly strong jobs report may further fuel those expectations.
With inflation data still ahead, the September FOMC meeting remains a key event for risk assets and crypto.
#AugPayrollsBeat #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC
September 🔥 & August 💥 2026
A stronger-than-expected rebound in U.S. nonfarm payrolls could add fresh pressure to the Fed’s September rate decision. Markets had already been pricing in elevated odds of a 25-basis-point hike, and the surprisingly strong jobs report may further fuel those expectations.
With inflation data still ahead, the September FOMC meeting remains a key event for risk assets and crypto.
#OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #BTCGoldRatioHigh #AugPayrollsBeat
Why did US stocks, bonds, gold, silver, Bitcoin and Ethereum suddenly pump at the same time?
It’s not random — the Fed just gave the market a reason to breathe.
The probability of a rate hike at the September 16 Fed meeting dropped from nearly 70% yesterday to just over 50%.
So what changed?
Fed Governor Chris Waller basically sent a more dovish message.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC
🚨 Why did US stocks, bonds, gold, silver, Bitcoin and Ethereum suddenly pump at the same time?
It’s not random — the Fed just gave the market a reason to breathe.
The probability of a rate hike at the September 16 Fed meeting dropped from nearly 70% yesterday to just over 50%.
So what changed?
Fed Governor Chris Waller basically sent a more dovish message.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC
#WallerEyesAugCPI Waller’s latest comments make the September decision feel more conditional than the market was pricing a few days ago 👀
He said he favors holding if August inflation continues to improve, but could support a hike if the data comes in strong. Next week’s CPI and PPI will be central to that call, while he described the labor market as satisfactory.
Jobless claims came in at 206K, close to expectations and still within this year’s familiar range. Meanwhile, CME odds of a 25bp hike fell to 50.2% from above 70%, as Treasury yields slipped and the dollar weakened 📉
To me, that shift shows how little conviction the market currently has. Expectations are moving sharply even though the underlying data has changed only gradually.
Tonight’s payroll report should add another clue—but inflation still looks like the final test before the September meeting.
$BTC traders have a new number to watch: US jobs.
Fed Governor Waller says he could support holding rates in September if inflation keeps cooling, while a hotter inflation print could still trigger a hike.
Now all eyes are on August payrolls.
A weak jobs report could push hike expectations lower and support risk assets.
A strong print could revive the hawkish case.
**BTC bullish or bearish after the data? 👀**
#WallerEyesAugCPI
The probability of a rate hike in September continues to rise
After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged directly from 35% to nearly 60%-66%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a rate hike has reached 66.1%. The non-farm payroll data this Friday (September 4) will be a key catalyst—if employment exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectation will be confirmed, and the market may take another hit. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood
US August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, still above 50. July JOLTS openings were 7.27M, below the 7.31M consensus but up from June's revised 7.18M. The data are mixed: factory momentum slowed, but labor demand has not collapsed. CME pricing puts the chance of a 25bp September hike near 66%-66.9%. August payrolls arrive Sep 4 at 12:30 UTC. For BTC and equities, the key is whether the report reprices the dollar, Treasury yields and risk appetite.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds
BREAKING: Commerce Secretary Lutnick expects US rates to hold steady and begin falling within 6 months.
$BTC
$SNDK SanDisk dropped below 1580 just one minute after the non-farm payroll data came out. I'm really impressed. I just published an article saying SanDisk would surge tonight, and it fell in less than a minute.
Non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the estimate was an increase of 55,000. This is troublesome; it might really give the Fed the courage to raise interest rates.#AugPayrollsBeat #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC