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Finally, let's wrap up by looking at the news and what to watch next.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the range at 3.75% to 4%. In the days following the hike, the market rebounded to the upper end of the range, without a one-sided breakout.
The latest verifiable spot ETF data: On September 17, Bitcoin absorbed about 160 million, while Ethereum saw outflows of about 39 million, with Ethereum experiencing multiple consecutive days of outflows.
Prices are moving toward the upper range, but capital is not fully returning. Bitcoin had a single-day inflow, while Ethereum continues to see outflows, indicating institutions are still selective and not rushing to chase highs.
There isn’t clear new weekly settlement data for Solana and Ripple these past two days, so no forced numbers will be given. Institutional volume for Dogecoin remains low, with only short positions and no longs.
What to watch next: whether BTC/ETH short positions hold, if ETF inflows can continue, whether SOL reaches 120–130 and XRP around 1.5, and if Dogecoin short positions at 0.09/0.10 will be released.
Short positions near the upper range can be taken, but stop losses must be set. When capital and price don’t align, avoid averaging down.🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $SOL | 15M
BTC remains the structural anchor, ETH confirms market breadth, while SOL reflects higher-beta risk appetite and capital rotation.
Price + volume + Open Interest are the key confirmation layer. Strong participation supports the structure; divergence signals weaker conviction.
BTC holds + ETH/SOL confirm → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/SOL diverge → ⚠️ Narrow Strength
Risk management matters when breadth becomes selective. $UNI I originally just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up giving me half a year's worth of dumplings.
Last night at dawn, I was watching UNI closely. After testing the bottom for a long time without breaking the support, I opened a long position around 6.957. At that time, the market hadn't fully started yet, so I just said: there's someone buying below, don't rush. During the repeated fluctuations in the session, many people got shaken off, but I stayed on the ride.
Now looking at the current price of 8.870, the return is +1375.59%, this profit feels great. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet, those still on the ride must be waking up smiling.
For position management, I first took profit on 70%, pocketing the main chunk; the remaining 30% moved the stop loss near the cost price, letting profits run if it continues to rise, and not letting gains turn uncomfortable if it falls back.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and I'll notify you immediately.
The market is to be waited for, profits are to be held onto. Don't get greedy with gains, don't despair over pullbacks.
$SOL $XRP UNI surges 14%: Under the RWA narrative, Uniswap undergoes value reassessment
Market data shows $UNI briefly surged to $7.841, with a 24-hour increase of 14.28%. Capital is flowing back into the DeFi sector, and the SEC's regulatory exemption policy for tokenized stocks, bridging on-chain and traditional securities markets, has become the core catalyst for this rally.
On the fundamentals side, after the Fee Switch implementation, Uniswap's monthly revenue stabilizes at $7.2 million, and its DEX market share has risen from 21% to 31%. The protocol has integrated with Robinhood, becoming Circle ARC's preferred DEX; V4, UniswapX, and the stablecoin ecosystem continue to expand.
Market valuation logic is shifting: previously, UNI relied on governance premium, but now it is gradually transforming into on-chain financial infrastructure with stable cash flow. RWA, tokenized stocks, and AI Agent trading are expected to continuously bring new trading demand.
However, short-term speculative risks are prominent. After the surge, chips are quickly changing hands, V4 Hooks still have security vulnerabilities, and the sustainability of trading volume and revenue is uncertain. Profit-taking pressure cannot be ignored. #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 ⚠️ On-Chain Hotspot | Frequent Black Hat Coin Thefts
Current Situation
Recently, black hat (black shell) coin theft incidents have surged, with increasing cases affecting personal wallets and small projects. The attacks no longer target only large protocols; a large number of ordinary users have become primary targets. The attacks no longer rely on private key cracking but mostly on phishing, malicious unlimited approvals, blind signatures, and malicious plugins to achieve seamless coin theft. Many users' wallet mnemonic phrases have not been leaked, yet their assets have been transferred away. After obtaining approval, hackers do not steal immediately but monitor the wallet, waiting for users to transfer large amounts of assets before looting all at once, making the attack highly covert.
Mainstream Attack Methods
1. Malicious Unlimited Approvals (Most Frequent)
Airdrop claims, whitelists, token unlock web pages induce wallet signatures granting contracts unlimited transfer permissions. Signature pop-ups do not clearly inform of risks; users think they are just paying gas fees, but in reality, they sign a blank check allowing hackers to transfer all tokens at any time.
2. Phishing Social Engineering Attacks
Private messages on social platforms, ad links, fake official websites, fake wallet apps; search ads top many phishing sites with domain names differing by only a few letters. Importing mnemonic phrases instantly uploads keys to hacker servers. Impersonating customer service or project teams to extract information under the pretext of unlocking assets or upgrading wallets.
3. Trojans and Malicious Browser Extensions
Stealing clipboard contents, hijacking transaction addresses; malicious extensions lurking in browsers listen to wallet signature actions, hijack transaction parameters, and persist in the system even after computer restarts.
4. Blind Signature Attacks
Signature pop-ups only display hexadecimal code with no readable transaction information, and users confirm signatures directly.$BTC $ETH High-level consolidation under macro game, on-chain review before the turning point
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%, entering a market digestion period of "bad news fully priced in." However, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, macro liquidity is still tight, and risk asset valuations are significantly suppressed.
Analysis combining market and on-chain data:
BTC surged to 81,527 on the 15-minute chart before pulling back to 81,365; the MA5/10/20 moving averages are tightly clustered around 81,100, with on-chain chips highly concentrated, indicating a turning point is imminent. ETH shows relatively weaker performance, currently priced at 2,622, having fallen below the MA20 (2,623.44), with the previous high of 2,646 forming short-term structural resistance.
From positions and capital behavior, high-level turnover is intensifying, profit-taking is ongoing, institutional capital inflow has slowed in the short term, and the market lacks incremental funds to break the deadlock.
Macro and data judgment:
· Resistance levels: BTC 81,527 / ETH 2,646.
· Support levels: BTC 80,000-80,500 / ETH 2,580-2,600.
· Observation signals: If BTC breaks below 80,000 with volume or ETH loses 2,600, it indicates macro selling pressure dominance, requiring caution for deeper pullbacks; conversely, if volume shrinks and stabilizes, the high-level oscillation pattern will be maintained.
Allocation strategy:
With no macro turning point yet, it is recommended to focus on spot base positions, strictly controlling contract leverage within 10x. Currently in a high-level game period, avoid blindly chasing rises or selling off.这一轮反弹，三个市场角色正在逐渐分化。 BTC 重新站上 $80K 附近，依然是整个市场的核心方向；ETH 回到 $2,600+，反映资金广度正在改善；而 SOL 一度冲破 $112，短线波动和风险偏好明显更强。 所以现在观察的重点，不只是价格上涨了多少。 价格 + 成交量 + 未平仓合约（OI） 才是判断这波行情是否具有持续性的关键组合。 🟠 BTC 稳住 $80K → 🔵 ETH 能够守住 $2,600 → 🟢 SOL 保持在 $110 上方 这意味着市场参与度正在扩大，资金开始从核心资产向高波动资产扩散。 但如果出现： BTC 维持强势 ETH 跟不上 SOL 开始回落 那么就更像是局部资金推动，而不是全面扩散。 近期市场还有一个值得关注的变化：在美国加密市场结构法案于参议院受阻后，SEC/CFTC 的相关监管行动仍在推进，同时 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 都出现明显反弹。 因此，15分钟级别上，我更关注的是： BTC 定方向，ETH 看扩散，SOL 测试风险偏好。 涨幅可以很快出现， 但真正重要的是—— 成交量能否跟上，OI 是否配合，以及突破后的价格能否站稳。 🔥Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long, position distribution is more short: top accounts long-short ratio 1.684, top positions long-short ratio 0.767; whole market accounts long-short ratio 3.247; price down 0.33%, position amount change +0.046%.
$SUI top accounts and top positions are both more short: top accounts long-short ratio 0.804, top positions long-short ratio 0.806; whole market accounts long-short ratio 2.426; price down 0.82%, position amount change -1.44%. The account number structure and position distribution of the top group are aligned.
$WLD top accounts are more long, position distribution is more short: top accounts long-short ratio 1.088, top positions long-short ratio 0.870; whole market accounts long-short ratio 2.427; price up 0.09%, position amount change -0.22%.
DOGE, WLD: The side with account number dominance is opposite to the side with position dominance, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
DOGE, SUI, WLD: The whole market account structure is biased long, which also differs from the top positions bias.$SOL 一度冲上 $112 附近，24小时涨幅超过 10%，创下数月来的新高。市场数据显示，这轮上涨不仅来自现货买盘，空头平仓也为行情提供了额外推动力。 但我不会只看涨幅。 从近期的交易结构来看，$106–$110 区域正在成为多空争夺的重要位置。买方持续在更高价位承接，而卖方也开始在 $110–$113 一带出现，意味着价格进入了新的压力测试区。 与此同时，Solana 基本面也出现新变化。 网络近期将目标区块时间从 300ms 降至 250ms，理论上的出块速度提升约 17%；另外，Transaction V1 已将单笔交易的数据上限从 1,232 字节提高到 4,096 字节，为更复杂的交易和应用提供了更多空间。 所以接下来真正值得关注的，并不是 SOL 能不能继续上涨几个百分点。 关键在于：突破 $110 后，能否在更高区间站稳，并持续获得成交量与买盘支持。 如果买方能够守住 $108–$110，市场可能继续测试更高阻力；但如果上涨主要由杠杆和空头回补推动，价格也可能重新回踩突破区域。 Momentum is strong. But follow-through is whaInvalidation in one line.
$BTC : lost structure.
$ETH : no flows and worse beta. $ZEC DOGE: attention gone : impulse dies.
If price is still “fine” but your invalidation already printed, the trade is over. Ego is not a stop.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
#CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve Brothers and sisters, BTC shot straight up to around 80900 today, a big bullish candle pulling from 76000, rising nearly 5000 points. I just tried a small long position near 80000 yesterday, and now the floating profit is pretty good. But honestly, with such a sharp rise, I'm a bit nervous. The resistance at 81000 is right there; if it breaks through, it's a new world, but if it doesn't, it might be a pullback. I opened a small position with 5000U, stop loss set at 79500, no holding through losses. Losing 200,000U and recovering now, every step is very cautious, no longer daring to bet heavily on direction like before. What do you think, is the 80,000 level a real breakout or a fake one? $BTC $BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% 1 billion USD. 830% month-over-month growth.
My first reaction when seeing this number was, are people really trading tokenized stocks on Base?
Looking further, Aerodrome alone took 850 million.
Frankly, the story sounds good, but the money is basically concentrated in one place.
I chased the RWA concept last year too, and only realized after buying that the trading volume was entirely propped up by mining subsidies; once the subsidies stopped, volume was cut in half immediately.
This time I specifically went to check and didn’t dare to act.
The lesson is, when you see such explosive growth data, first ask: who is washing volume, and who is genuinely buying.
I will continue to watch the Base line, but what I’m really watching is how much Aerodrome can retain after the subsidy taper.
#SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ #Arc主网上线首日数据出炉 $ZEC $UNI is currently the most worth-watching, and it's no longer about the price.
Uniswap's DEX Volume on Robinhood Chain has already reached about 92%.
In the past, I always asked:
Uniswap has users.
It has trading volume.
It has fees.
But what does that have to do with UNI?
Now, Fee Switch + Burn is completing the final piece.
Real users
→ Real trades
→ Protocol Fees
→ UNI Burn
When a token's value capture mechanism changes,
its valuation model should be recalculated. $UNI 📊A huge game is unfolding! BTC rebounds, betting on the Fed stopping?
The September rate hike dust has settled, but the market has no time to relax, already focusing on October.
According to the latest CME data, the probability of another 25bp rate hike in October has surged to 55.4%. The dot plot signals are even clearer: most Fed officials predict at least one more rate hike this year.
Honestly, I initially thought this round of rate hikes was the end.
But reality is right in front of us: rising energy prices, advancing tariff policies, and continuous capital consumption by AI infrastructure mean inflation risks are not eliminated.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized at 5%, and mortgage rates have surged to 6.95%. In this environment, the Fed is unlikely to easily declare the end of rate hikes.
An interesting divergence emerges.
After the rate hike, US stocks and BTC quickly recovered and rebounded, with BTC rising nearly 2% intraday.
Capital is betting that this round is a limited hike, betting the Fed will not tighten continuously.
But I dare not easily follow this bet.
If the October rate hike happens as expected, this current rebound is essentially an overdrawn optimistic expectation.
Conversely, if the rate hike pauses in October, the funds that missed out will chase the market higher.
In a rate hike cycle, survival is always more important than making quick money in the short term.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $HYPE Honestly, I myself thought it was risky for this trade to survive until now, luck played a big part.
Yesterday in the early morning, the market bottomed out, HYPE support held, and there were buyers below. I advised to wait for a pullback to stabilize before moving, don’t chase.
Just after lunch, I checked the market, and it gave the answer: from 79.380 to 93.306, +877.55%, that profit feels good.
Take profit on 70%, move the remaining 30% to the cost price to protect it, let the profit run, and don’t let a pullback turn gains into discomfort.
The market is waited for, profits are held for. Panic comes from no plan, losses come from overthinking. For those not in yet, now is not the time to rush, wait for the next signal to move.
$BNB $DOGE Whale shorted $ZEC and lost ten million, it's not a market reversal
One address shorted $ZEC for half a month.
In the end, they closed the position at 1548 USD.
What they thought before:
79% win rate, earned 9.11 million in half a year.
In their eyes, this trade was still very likely to win.
What actually happened:
The short was done by borrowing coins to sell; if the price rises, they have to buy back to repay.
When the price rose beyond endurance, they had to accept the loss and close the position.
The 10.68 million loss came from this.
A 79% win rate couldn't save this trade.
One time of not holding on, and all previous gains are given back.
#ZEC再创新高，估值重估受关注 $ZEC Full rebound across the board: $BTC broke through the 80,000 barrier in one go, altcoins are going crazy across the board, and storage chain stocks continue to rise with new materials.
This week, all the negative news has been exhausted, and the market sentiment has changed. Three driving forces to help you see clearly which are true trends and which are just emotional amplifiers:
1. Regulation bypasses Congress and paves its own way: On the 17th, the CFTC submitted two draft crypto market rules to the White House, while the SEC simultaneously pushed for innovative exemptions for tokenized stocks.
After the CLARITY Act died, the administrative route is opening up. The market interprets this as the US not intending to kill this industry, which is the biggest expectation gap in this round.
2. Weak data weakens the case for continued rate hikes: August industrial output was flat, and leading indicators were down 0.1% as announced on Friday, loosening hawkish confidence. That’s why the market started a broad rally yesterday.
3. ETF stops the bleeding: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of 159 million on Thursday, ending the previous two days’ outflow of about 746 million, with institutions coming back in.
Over 470 million in shorts were liquidated across the market in 24 hours; a significant part of this rally was shorts buying themselves out. Today is Saturday, when spot liquidity is thinnest during the week, so altcoins like $FIL will see even higher gains. Just as I opened the space, I got knocked out—I accept it.
Sometimes, the toughest part of the market isn't your misdirection, but that you act too early.
Just now, $ETH opened a small short position, which was immediately eliminated.
I agree.
This stage is indeed not suitable for hard shorting.
Today, ETH climbed from around 2440 all the way up to above 2550, and after touching 1500, $ZEC remained sideways at a high level.
It seems both coins have already risen significantly.
But think calmly:
"It's rising a lot≠ "It's about to drop."
On the ETH side, spot ETFs still have funds supporting the market. Short-term outflows are more like a change in capital rhythm and cannot yet be simply understood as a collective exit by institutions.
Moreover, ETH has already undergone a clear pullback earlier, and now it seems more like a recovery from an oversold condition.
What is this market most afraid of?
There are too many short positions, so the price gently pushes up, clearing out short positions one by one.
$ZEC is even more obvious.
The privacy narrative remains, ETF expectations remain, the shielded pool has locked up some circulating shares, and the short positions in previous contracts have been repeatedly liquidated.
Of course, 1500 can be a resistance level.
But I want to remind myself:
A resistance level doesn't mean it must be short.
ETH and ZEC now share a common trait:
There is buying interest in the spot market, with bearish leverage, and the narrative is far from over.
Under this structure, shorting is most likely to occur:
The direction might be right in the end, but time is simply not on your side.
#DailyOrbit #黄仁勋：英伟达明年芯片销量将翻倍
Jensen Huang spoke again, saying that NVIDIA's chip sales will double next year. Right after he said that, AI cloud provider Nebius notified customers that starting October 1, on-demand GPU computing power prices will increase, with instances like H100, H200, B200, and B300 rising by 17% to 21%.
Looking at these two things together, it's quite contradictory. On one hand, supply is supposed to double, but prices are still going up. Normally, with more supply, prices should drop; the opposite happening only means demand is outpacing supply.
Computing power is now hard currency. Large models keep getting bigger, and inference demands consume more cards than training. Cloud providers simply don't have enough GPUs to go around. Nebius dares to raise prices because they know customers have no choice—if you don't rent, someone else will. Even if NVIDIA doubles shipments, it won't fill this gap in the short term; ramping up production takes time, and TSMC can't just expand capacity on a whim.
Looking at the bigger picture, this AI capital expenditure cycle is far from over. As cloud providers' profit margins get squeezed, they'll try to pass costs downstream, meaning AI application costs will also rise. When computing power prices will peak depends on whether supply expansion can catch up with demand; for now, it looks like it's still early.
For the crypto space, this is indirectly related. The more aggressively AI infrastructure burns money, the faster fiat credit is consumed, making Bitcoin's non-sovereign asset logic more credible. But in the short term, don't expect this news to pump the market; right now, the market is focused on interest rates and inflation, not how many cards NVIDIA sells. $BTC $ETH $NVDA Teacher A's Real Trading Record | Day 259 of Dollar-Cost Averaging into SOL, Enjoying Nearly 60% Profit🚀
📅 Check-in Day: Day 259
💰 Current Holdings: 116.70 SOL
📈 Current Profit/Loss: +58.38% (Unrealized profit about 32000 CNY) 🎉
📊 Current Price: ~114 USDT
Although the profit now is good, looking back at the weekly chart, the current price is still at the foot of the mountain.🏔️
My strategy is simple:
1️⃣ Buy according to plan regardless of rise or fall.
2️⃣ Buy more when it falls, buy less (or not at all) when it rises.
3️⃣ Uninstall the app and live well.
In this market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. Time is the best friend, persistence is victory!💪
Are there any friends also dollar-cost averaging into SOL? Raise your hand in the comments!🙋♂️#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $BTC $SOL 🚨 Defying the market to resist capital outflow! $ETH powerfully retakes 2500, is a new rally about to start?
Here's a very interesting anomaly.
On September 17, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about $39 million again, marking three consecutive days of capital outflow.
However, ETH price stubbornly withstood the selling pressure, firmly holding the 2450-2500 range, and the spot market did not experience a trend sell-off.
Technically, 2400 is the core support level for ETH's current upward move.
Now that it has firmly stood above the 2500 mark again, it means it has reclaimed the previous breakout platform, and the bulls' confidence is back.
The major mid-to-long-term catalysts are already on the way.
RWA, stablecoins, and on-chain institutional finance remain ETH's biggest narrative trump cards.
The SEC's latest Innovation Exemption policy allows certain tokenized US stocks to be traded on-chain, directly fueling Ethereum's RWA sector.
✅ Bullish signal: Breakout with volume above 2550-2560, next target is 2750
🟢 Mid-term lifeline: 2400; if broken, the upward structure needs to be reassessed. Others trade crypto to make money, but for me, trading crypto is a form of punishment.
$UNI went from 3.16 to 9.44, and the group chat is full of daily profit screenshots. I didn’t buy it, not even bothering to say congratulations—what’s flying in the sky isn’t my money, it’s the life I missed out on.
That $ZEC trade was something else. I shorted at 954, it surged all the way to 1583, and now it’s hanging at 1547. An $800 gap, and I’ve been holding for half a month.
Others make money shorting volatility; I short to build courage. This isn’t trading at all—it’s like someone strapped me to a rocket and I have to shout "ignite" myself.
$ETH was originally my only correct move: I entered five orders at 1992, and the highest it reached was 2646. But I just didn’t sell. Now it’s dropped back to 2613, and the profit of over three thousand dollars is leaking out bit by bit. When it rises, I want to wait longer; when it falls, I’m afraid it will rebound once I leave; when it’s sideways, I get anxious—my face is literally drawn by the candlestick chart.
Later I realized: what breaks a person isn’t losing money, but three things hitting all at once—the train you didn’t get on, the horse you can’t get off, and the money you can’t hold.
So tonight I only ask myself one question: if $ZEC rises another half, will I still be alive? If alive, I hold; if dead, I won’t add positions; if not alive, I cut losses immediately and stop thinking about that 822 number.
The market doesn’t remember where I opened my position, only I remember, and remembering only makes it hurt more.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 ⚡Breaking news! Japan officially announces interest rate hike, triggering a global wave of high interest rates, with hidden risks in the crypto market
On September 18, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25bp to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, signaling possible further hikes.
Following the announcement, the yen fell below 157, as the rate hike expectation had already been priced in by the market.
The Bank of England held steady, but three members supported an immediate rate hike, increasing policy divergence.
The US and Japan are tightening consecutively, making rising global borrowing costs a clear trend.
The biggest risk comes from the yen carry trade.
After the BOJ rate hike, low-cost financing funds are forced to close positions and exit, causing liquidity to be passively withdrawn. If long-term bond yields continue to rise, risk asset valuations will remain under pressure.
$BTC's movement is intriguing: it dipped to 75,000 after the rate hike, then strongly rebounded to 80,000.
The market is betting that the Fed's rate hikes are only temporary, but the probability of a hike in October has already exceeded 50%. If inflation rebounds, this rally could abruptly end at any time.
💡My judgment: Do not chase the rally.
Current spot buying volume has not increased, so the rebound may be a bull trap.
Prioritize light positions and observe; focus on the ongoing global high interest rate cycle as the main theme. Half a month, $1548, closed the position.
My first reaction when I saw this number was not to mock, but to admire.
An experienced short seller with a 79% win rate earned 9.11 million from June until now, but lost it all in this trade and even ended up over a million in the red. It's not that he didn't hold on, he held on for half a month, but in the end, the price forced him to admit defeat.
Old traders are very familiar with this scene. The direction was right many times before, so next time they dare to increase their position, and then the market wipes out all your previous correct calls with a single move.
What I admire is not that he lost money, but that he really dared to admit it at the $1548 level.
If it were me, I would probably still be shouting in the group, "Wait a little longer, it will come back."
So don't be quick to laugh at others; first check if you have any "wait a little longer" orders in your own account.
I'm going to check mine first.
#摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金
#全球高利率预期再升温 #美联储10月再加息概率破55% $ETH $ETH went from a floating loss of millions to a floating profit with just one big bullish candle
At the 2356 level, just a few days ago, it was the spot where the whole network was waiting for liquidation.
Current position: standing above 2570, a big bullish 4-hour candle lifted it up.
The previous resistance platform has just been broken, and the short-term traders' stop-loss is around here.
What is it betting on: a 25bp rate hike landing, the bearish news is priced in.
This wave pushed by concentrated short covering is not new money entering, it's shorts stepping on themselves.
There is still trapped volume pressure above at 2620.
A rebound does not mean a one-way move; pullbacks and shakeouts can come anytime, and high leverage can still swallow floating profits in one bite.
I still hold a short-term position; the direction hasn't changed, but I dare not add.
This reversal is too fast, almost like it's here to slap my face.
The life of a five-guarantee household, even if you make money, you can't sleep soundly.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#全球高利率预期再升温 #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $ETH No vision, can't hold on, the profit this time is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. During the bottom grinding in the session, $ZEC never broke 1,010.24, and the ZEC buy orders gradually strengthened. I knew someone was catching below, so after the long signal, I took some off first. While everyone else was still watching, the price had already started to move up.
Now 1,578.56 is right in front of me, +2814.03% income in sight, it was worth the wait. You don't have to catch the whole fish every time; taking a part is already great.
Better to miss a rally than to catch a flying knife and end up with a bloody hand.
Take profit on 70% of the position first, keep the remaining 30% at cost price for protection. Let the profits run if it keeps going up, and don't let gains turn uncomfortable if it pulls back. Time to enjoy a good meal, but don't let greed ruin the rhythm.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Wait for the new structure to emerge, there are still opportunities, don't be anxious.
$BTC $ADA $POL loud noise, little rain! Polygon's burn this time is purely self-excited
Polygon Foundation CEO boldly announced the deployment of a permissionless burn contract, with the first round directly burning 100 million POL,
The deflation narrative is fully hyped, even claiming to surpass Arbitrum and Near in revenue by 2026 according to a ChatGPT analyst
The news sounds impressive, but seasoned investors can see through it at a glance; this is purely much ado about nothing.
Looking at the data to see the essence. 100 million sounds like a lot, but POL's total supply is as high as 10.7 billion, so this burn is less than 1% of the total supply!
What's worse, there is no hard cap set on the burn
Even the official admits that after June 2025, the annual inflation rate will still be 2%
You burn 100 million, but inflation will add over 200 million in a year
This is not deflation; it's just moving money from one hand to the other, using burning as a marketing gimmick.
The market response is the most honest. POL is currently at 0.1048, with a pitiful 4% increase
24-hour trading volume is only 3.1 million USDT, compared to a market cap of 1.122 billion, liquidity is extremely dry
It peaked at 0.1095 and then weakened, unable to break through the 0.11 level
Compared to the historical high of 0.76, it is still stuck in a deep pit.
Don't be fooled by the official deflation PR; without incremental funds and real demand, burning a small amount can't support the price.
This rebound is just an emotional pulse, don't be the bag holder. Watch more, act less, wait for real capital to enter before making moves.Announcing victory while wielding the sanction hammer! What is Trump really playing at?
Trump's latest statement: The U.S. "easily won" the war against Iran, expects it to end soon, and gasoline prices will fall. He insists Iran does not have nuclear weapons and claims that without B-2 strikes, Iran might have already had nukes.
But on the same day, he signed the "2026 Lindsey Graham Sanctions on Russia and Iran Act," expanding sanctions, tariffs, and bans on Russia and Iran, and extending sanctions on Iran.
① Saying victory with words, wielding the big stick in hand
The expectation of a quick end to the war sharply contrasts with the reality of expanded sanctions. Geopolitical risks are not resolved; they have just shifted from hot war to prolonged economic strangulation.
② Impact on the crypto market
· If the expectation of war ending is realized, oil prices will fall, inflation will cool, benefiting risk assets.
· But with expanded sanctions and ongoing geopolitical tensions, risk-off sentiment could flare up at any time.
· In the short term, high oil prices still suppress inflation, limiting rate cut expectations and capping rebound potential for BTC and ETH.
· In the long term, sanctions on Iran and Russia accelerate de-dollarization, which in turn strengthens BTC's censorship-resistance narrative.
Core summary: Victory is a politician's line; sanctions are the market's reality. Don't rush blindly in the smoke screen—see the bottom cards clearly before betting!
$BTC $ETH Hello everyone, I am your uncle! The big boss's operational thinking really confused me.
Bankless co-founder liquidated all $ETH to rush into altcoins, and the market immediately erupted in chaos.
On the chart, Bitcoin surged to 2646 but didn't continue the strong attack, now hovering sideways around 2621, with the one-hour timeframe starting to consolidate.
The moving averages are still all supporting from below, the major uptrend structure remains intact, but the MACD has started to turn down, showing a clear weakening of bullish momentum.
On one side, mainstream coins are stagnating at high levels, while big players in the circle are shifting funds to the altcoin market, causing a clear capital diversion.
The reality now is that holding long ETH positions lacks the strength to push higher, but there is support holding it from falling.
Many people are being influenced by the big boss's comments, rushing to sell mainstream chips to chase various altcoins.
But don't just see others eating meat; altcoins rotate quickly and have many traps.
Mainstream coins have risen a lot in this wave, so even if switching tracks is necessary, you shouldn't impulsively go all-in.
Others can decisively switch coins, but ordinary retail investors blindly following trends are easily hit from both sides—selling mainstream too early and getting stuck in altcoins.
#Bankless co-founder says altcoin season has arrived #ETH consolidates at high levels $ETH10月加息概率破55%，市场为何不跌反涨？
这两天市场出现一个挺有意思的现象：10月美联储再次加息的市场隐含概率已经升到55%左右，按传统逻辑，加息预期升温应该压制BTC和美股，但这两天风险资产反而出现反弹。
为什么？
第一，**利空可能已经提前定价。**市场不是看到“加息”两个字就一定跌，而是看最终结果有没有超出预期。10月加息概率不断上升，本身就是市场已经在消化的事情，如果后续没有更鹰派的信息，价格反而可能出现利空钝化。
第二，**BTC交易的不只是降息预期。**美元、美债收益率、流动性以及资金回补都会影响短期走势。前期市场经历了一轮快速调整后，如果价格没有继续创新低，空头平仓甚至反手做多，都可能推动反弹。
第三，**55%并不等于加息已经板上钉钉。**这只是期货市场根据当前价格计算出的概率，后面的通胀、就业和美联储表态仍然可能改变预期。
所以现在真正值得关注的，不是“10月会不会加息”这一句话，而是：加息概率继续上升时，BTC到底还能不能跌下去？
如果利空不断增加，价格却越来越跌不动，说明市场可能正在提前消化紧缩预期；反过来，如果反弹后再次跌破关键支撑，那就要警惕这轮上涨只是技术$BTC remains the structural anchor. ETH reflects breadth, while small coins represent sentiment.
In this market cycle, many people mistakenly think all coins are moving independently, but when you break it down, the underlying transmission chain has never disappeared.
BTC is the ballast stone of the entire crypto market.
It doesn't have to surge the most, but its position determines the market's risk tolerance. As long as BTC doesn't experience a deep panic breakdown, the whole market still retains the foundation for "speculation"; once BTC chooses to dive, the vast majority of coins will struggle to stay unaffected. It may not be the pioneer of the trend, but it is the reference anchor for all funds:
- BTC oscillating at a high level → the market has room for trial and error;
- BTC continuously weakening → funds generally contract and seek safety.
Many altcoin impulse moves can detach from BTC for a few days, but it's hard to break away from its larger range.
ETH reflects the breadth of the market.
If BTC represents "whether there is a macro environment," ETH represents "whether the macro environment is good."
ETH's movement represents institutional confidence in the entire crypto sector:
- When ETH outperforms BTC, it means incremental funds are willing to flow into DeFi, NFT, Layer 2, AI+Web3 ecosystems; funds are not just buying digital gold but also "application expectations";
- When ETH underperforms BTC, it indicates the market has entered defense mode, where everyone only wants to hold the most hardcore assets and is unwilling to pay for ecosystem narratives, making a flourishing market difficult to appear. 🔥 Let's talk about those who are shorting ZEC
Recently, the trend of ZEC has been interesting, not just in terms of price fluctuations, but what exactly are the shorts betting on?
Many people's logic for shorting is simple: it has risen too much, the valuation is high, and the profit-taking should happen.
But the problem is, if market funds and the privacy narrative continue to heat up, shorts are not facing an ordinary rebound, but a trend of continuous capital absorption.
The most dangerous time for shorts is not when the price has already risen a lot, but when:
👉 More and more people are shorting
👉 The price refuses to drop
👉 Pullbacks are quickly caught by funds
👉 Short stops start to fuel the bulls
Once this structure forms, it easily leads to a chain reaction of short covering → price rising → more short stops → further rises.
So when looking at ZEC, you can't just ask "Can it keep rising after so much increase?" You also need to look at a key variable:
Who is selling, and who is buying?
If shorts keep increasing but the price stubbornly refuses to go down, that is the most alarming signal.$BTC BTC has already surpassed 80,000, and many people are completely confused about the market🔥
The Federal Reserve's rate hike is in place, the tone is hawkish, and there is room reserved for further hikes.
Logically: this is negative for risk assets, so the crypto market should fall.
But in reality: BTC directly holds above 80,000, the more negative the news, the stronger it gets.
Many are puzzled, so I'll explain the real logic:
1. The market trades on expectations, not the present
This rate hike has been fully priced in by the market
Everyone already knew about the 25BP hike
The negative impact was already priced in, so the actual event means the negative is fully out
In capital markets:
Negative news landing = capital dares to enter
Positive news landing = capital tends to exit
2. The core now: the rate hike cycle is nearing its end
Although the tone is hawkish, the market understands one thing:
This round of tightening is about to end
The crypto market doesn't trade current rates
It trades future easing expectations
Capital is positioning early for a rate cut scenario, hence the counter-trend rally.
3. Institutional ETFs provide a floor, the overall market structure has completely changed
Previously, crypto relied on retail sentiment
Now it relies on continuous net inflows from US stock spot ETFs
Institutional buying is steady, dips are buying opportunities
This leads to a resilient, ultra-strong market with a continuously rising base
4. The strongest technical signal: no drop on bad news is a big bullish signal
On the biggest day of rate hike negativity, no drop occurred; instead, it broke through 80,000
This is a typical strong bull structure:
The bears are exhausted, and the bulls are fully in control
Summary for the future
Is this a pump-and-dump, or a bull market reversal? $BTC $ Uniswap's $UNI has seen a standout increase of about 16%, with the price returning near $9. The reason is almost straightforward: the SEC allows tokenized stocks to operate through AMMs and liquidity pools, effectively embedding Uniswap's most familiar product form into regulatory pilot texts. The market immediately began trading on the question of "whether stocks will circulate in pools like altcoins." Of course, this involves some speculation—there are exemptions with limits on the number of underlying assets, transaction proportions, issuer veto rights, and other restrictions—but the narrative is strong enough that capital doesn't wait for detailed rules to be finalized before buying governance tokens. The long-term issues for $UNI remain fee toggles and governance efficiency. A one-day surge indicates the market has priced in "AMMs becoming the new gateway to capital markets" at a high value; if actual stock transactions do not follow, the premium will quickly retract. It is currently one of the most resilient blue chips in the RWA theme and also one of the easiest to have expectations overextended. #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 #星球日报 $ARB is still sideways, the short position from yesterday is still stuck, can it be freed today? 👊
$ARB rose from 0.204 to 0.230 today, now at 0.223, up 5.9 points. The SEC's innovative exemption discussion and tokenized stock AMM narrative have pushed ARB up again, with a generally positive news sentiment. Looking at the 15-minute chart, after surging to 0.230, it started to pull back and is now oscillating near the moving average. STOCHRSI is at 45, neither high nor low, with neither bulls nor bears showing much strength. Volume is 182 million, turnover is 38.82 million, capital inflow is moderate.
The short position opened yesterday is still stuck, this level is neither up nor down, very frustrating. 0.230 is the previous high resistance; if it can't break through, there is still a chance for a pullback; if it really holds above, I have to accept the loss on this position. For now, I'm watching the 0.230 level closely; if it can't break through, there is hope to get out of the position.
Are there any brothers in the comments also stuck? Let's talk about how to hold on.🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #OKX星球话题来啦 Historical gains ≠ the next cycle replay; each bull market has a completely different narrative theme. 2017 was smart contracts, 2021 was public chains + L2 + NFT, this cycle is ETF + RWA.
The star coins of the last bull market may not lead the next rally.
Highly elastic coins have severe downside damage. SOL, MATIC, and other hundredfold bull market coins generally retraced 85%-95% from their highs during the bear market.
Regulation is the biggest variable; XRP and ETH have long faced regulatory risks from the US SEC, and once negative news hits, valuations will be quickly re-evaluated.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 $SOL $ZEC $DOGE This altcoin wave isn't a full market bull run; it's a product of attention and liquidity flowing back simultaneously. USELESS isn't dead, meaning the meme sentiment is still alive; ONE and CNPY are soaring wildly, indicating hot money is starting to look for high-odds exits. Altcoin rallies usually happen in three steps: meme ignition, low market cap diffusion, and short covering acceleration. Right now, it seems to be transitioning from the second step to the third.
Whether the altcoin season can fully arrive depends on the mood of the mainstream. If BTC and ETH rally again, altcoins won't move in unison, but those with crowded shorts, small circulating supply, and fresh narratives are the easiest targets for pinpoint explosions. In thin markets, a single bullish candle can trigger a stop-loss chain, and the covering pushes prices up, creating a fierce short squeeze spiral.
If you hold two short positions in altcoins, the fear isn't about being wrong on direction but mistiming the rhythm. Shorting high beta against the trend is like handing over your stop-loss control to the market. A conservative approach: reduce leverage, set hard stop-losses, and scale out shorts; if you want to open small long positions, wait for a pullback confirmation and don't chase emotional tops.
Altcoin moves are fast and fierce—doubt when they rise, panic when they fall. Control risk first, then talk about positioning.
Altcoin season ignites amid divergence and fades amid consensus.
$ONE
What does everyone think?Behind the 430 USD floating loss lies a more noteworthy signal: cross-market linkage is quietly returning. Have you noticed that recently the trap is often not the direction, but the rhythm? Today, the account drew about 430 USD overall. Among the three short positions, only DOGE was still in the gain; ZEC and ARB were caught in the rebound. ZEC opened at 1067.65, current price 1470.05, 20x position, floating loss of 376 USD, ROI negative 547%, the deepest pain point this round; ARB opened at 0.1912, current price 0.2219, 10x position, unrealized loss of 80U; DOGE opened at 0.09081, current price 0.087956, 20x position, floating profit 25U, still waiting for 0.085. Looks like a personal position accident, but in a cross-market lens, it's actually trading the same thing: when risk appetite recovers, high-beta assets are bought first, bears are forced to cover, and the weakest one is still being sold. Let's talk about signals first. - ZEC's aggressive recovering indicates high short-selling crowding in the early stages. Once prices keep rising, stop-losses and covering will self-reinforce, and the faster the rise, the more trapped it gets. - ARB's synchronized rebound means the L2 sector is following ETH ecosystem sentiment recovery, not an isolated market. - DOGE continues to weaken, indicating that the meme line has not yet caught the return of risk appetite, and funds are more willing to focus on targets supported by narratives. - The probability of another Fed rate hike in October exceeds 55%, US crypto tax and BTC reserve bill advanced, SEC and CFTCLet's take a look at the Bitcoin section.
The current price is about 81,100, which has already reached the higher end of this operational range. The overall framework hasn't changed; the price still falls within the previously set range and hasn't suddenly shifted to a one-sided trend.
The current view is bearish. According to the range rules, you can short after surpassing 80,000, with a stop loss set at 83,000. Adding to positions and adjusting sizes should still follow the previously mentioned rhythm, but be sure to set the stop loss before entering. Take profits depend on personal style and position management; there is no one-size-fits-all answer.
Do not try to average down. Exit when the stop loss is hit, then wait for the next clear position. Until Bitcoin effectively breaks above about 83,000, treat it as range/rebound trading only, and do not interpret it as a full bull market return.
The key levels haven't changed; what has changed is the current price. Execute accordingly, keep your stop loss tight—this is more important than emotional judgment.$OKB 📝｜OKB: Appears Still, But Actually Always "Pretending"
Many people recently looking at OKB have the same feeling:
While the overall market jumps up and down and many coins erupt in turn, it just moves sideways back and forth, neither rising nor falling, as if deliberately "pretending to be calm."
From the 15-minute chart, you can see:
The price repeatedly oscillates within the range of 113.87‑117.61.
The SUPER‑TREND indicator also fluctuates back and forth, sometimes turning bullish, sometimes bearish. Short-term breakouts are always fleeting: it gets pushed down when it hits 117.61, and when it falls near 114, buying support appears. The rise is not decisive, the fall not painful—typical choppy and grinding market behavior.
Why does it show this kind of "pretending" movement?
1. The nature of a platform coin means it won’t go crazy easily
Platform coins differ from MEME and small coins; their price is tied to the exchange’s revenue, buybacks, policy expectations, and market reputation. Institutional funds participate heavily, and there are rarely continuous rallies without reason. Funds prefer to trade in waves rather than a one-sided surge.
When the market is euphoric, it won’t act as a pioneer; when the market panics, it has fundamental support, making deep drops difficult. So it turns into oscillation.
2. Chips are fully exchanged here
The 117‑118 range above is a short-term resistance zone. Every time it reaches here, some short-term profit takers sell to break even; the 113‑114 range below has some bottom-fishing funds who think the valuation is not expensive and buy on dips.
Bulls and bears reach a temporary balance in this narrow range, with neither side showing decisive strength. Why Did BTC Suddenly Reclaim $80K After the Bad News?
Something interesting just happened.
On Tuesday:
The CLARITY Act failed to advance.
The Fed raised rates by 25 bps.
BTC briefly fell to around $75,900.
Many thought:
This could be the start of another leg down.
But just days later,
BTC climbed back above $80,000,
up more than 5% at one point.
What’s even more interesting?
The bad news didn’t disappear.
The Fed still raised rates.
The bill still failed.
Yet BTC moved higher.
What does that tell us?
At least one thing:
The market is no longer trading only on the headlines.
What matters is what capital does
after the news is already priced in.
On September 17,
U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded roughly $159.5M in net inflows,
with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for about $183.7M.
After significant outflows over the previous two sessions,
the question has changed:
Not:
“Why didn’t BTC keep falling?”
But:
“Who started buying after the bad news?”
That is where on-chain data becomes interesting.
I’m watching:
BTC ETF flows
BTC exchange balances
Stablecoin inflows
Whale wallet activity
Spot trading volume
And most importantly:
Is this rally being driven by spot demand,
or by leverage?
Because those two types of rallies
mean very different things.
If spot capital keeps coming in
while BTC exchange balances remain stable,
the market structure deserves attention.
But if leverage is driving the move,
the faster price rises,
the faster risk can build.
So I’m not trying to predict
whether BTC goes up or down next.
I’m watching one contradiction:
The macro environment remains challenging.
Yet capital is starting to come back.
Price tells you what happened.
Capital flows may tell you why.
No guessing the top.
No guessing the bottom.
Just one question:
Who is buying BTC above $80K?After the negative news settled, why did BTC suddenly surge back to $80K?
The most interesting thing happened.
Tuesday:
The CLARITY Act was blocked.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points.
BTC once dropped to about $75,900.
Many thought:
Now it’s really going to keep falling.
But what happened?
Just a few days later,
BTC stood above $80,000 again.
It rose more than 5% at one point.
What’s even more worth studying is:
The bad news didn’t disappear.
The Fed still raised rates.
The regulatory bill still didn’t pass.
But the price went up instead.
What does this mean?
At least it shows one thing:
The market is no longer trading just on the news itself.
More importantly:
After the news settles,
what exactly does the capital do?
Data shows,
On September 17, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $159.5M,
with BlackRock IBIT contributing about $183.7M inflow.
Whereas in the previous two trading days,
BTC ETFs experienced large outflows in total.
So the real question worth studying has changed:
It’s not:
"Why didn’t the negative news cause BTC to keep falling?"
But rather:
"After the negative news settled, who started buying again?"
This is where on-chain data truly holds value.
Next, I will focus on:
BTC ETF capital flows
Exchange BTC balances
Stablecoin inflows
Whale wallet changes
Spot trading volume
And during the price rise,
whether it’s spot capital driving it,
or leverage pushing it.
Because these two types of rallies
have completely different implications.
If spot capital keeps coming in,
and exchange BTC balances don’t increase significantly,
then the market structure is worth continued observation.
But if it’s just leverage driving it,
the faster the price rises,
the faster risks may accumulate.
So the most interesting thing now
is not predicting whether BTC will go up or down next.
But observing a contradiction:
The macro environment is not friendly.
Yet capital is starting to reappear.
The price tells you the result.
Capital flows
may tell you the reason.
So today I won’t guess the top.
Nor the bottom.
I just want to know:
Who exactly is buying BTC above $80K?$HYPE RSI is severely overbought, pullback to the 83.5 area to go long
Trading plan | Short-term direction: bullish bias
Entry zone: 83.5234–84.5878; trigger: 92.808; invalidation: 81.9269; take profit: 87.2486, 89.3773.
Mid-term observation: trend is bullish biased but beware of high-level pullbacks. Key support at EMA60 (81.97); if 4H close breaks below, it turns bearish.
Explanation: 1. RSI at 84.27, severely overbought, short-term technical correction needed; 2. MACD golden cross with expanding histogram, momentum still strong but requires volume support; 3. High open interest, neutral funding rate, caution against rapid deleveraging caused by crowded longs.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% The most interesting state of $BTC right now is that after rising, it hasn't immediately dropped sharply.
It pulled from around $76,000 up to above $81,000. If it can hold steady at the high level and let the market slowly digest the profit-taking, then a retest of $82,000 is worth close attention.
But if the support at the high level is insufficient and it falls back below $80,000, then watch out for the price to seek support around $78,500.
So my current focus order is simple: first see if $80,000 can hold, then see if $82,000 can be broken.
In the meantime, during the fluctuations, no need to rush to buy.$ETH
Honestly, this chart looks like the bulls just fought a tough battle and are now catching their breath.
They pushed from around 2500 all the way up to 2646, such a sharp rise. The bears definitely resisted,
but every time they tried to push down, someone stepped in to buy.
Now the price has pulled back to around 2615, and I’m actually not that worried.
Why?
Because the 15-minute structure hasn’t broken yet; the highs are still rising, and the lows haven’t truly been breached.
Around 2606 is the key level I’m watching closely right now.
If it holds here, I’m still leaning bullish. First target 2625, then 2646.
But 2646 is a tough barrier; the previous surge left clear resistance there. Without volume to push through, I’d rather not chase.
To put it simply, here’s the bottom line:
Bulls, don’t rush to celebrate; bears, don’t pop the champagne yet.
Personally, I prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation.
If 2606 doesn’t break, keep the bullish mindset; but if volume really breaks through 2646,
that’s when the market tells me—this move isn’t over yet.🔥$BTC 81,000, $ETH 2600, do you believe in a breakout or a bull trap?
Today's bulls are optimistic: BTC rebounded from the weekly low of 75,972, once reaching over 81,000, then pulled back to the 80,000 level in about 6 hours; ETH simultaneously bounced from 2,359 support, surging to 2,600. But the comment section is definitely divided:
🅰️ Breakout camp — BTC ETF net buy of 159 million in one day, SEC exemptions favor institutions, steady close at 81k aiming for 83.3k, ETH over 2615 targeting 2670
🅱️ Bull trap camp — interest rates at 3.75%–4.00%, 10Y US Treasury around 5%, ETH ETF outflows totaling over 100 million for three consecutive days, reduce positions above 81k/2600 and wait for a pullback
🅲️ BTC-only camp — ETH has weak capital flow and no exchange rate recovery, prefer to wait for BTC to return to 78.4k support before rising again
🅳️ No position camp — no late nights on weekends, wait for Monday's ETF weekly data to set direction
BTC daily close steady at 81k, pullback not breaking 78.4k → bulls continue
ETH steady close at 2615, and spot ETF turns positive → independent rally begins
If either BTC breaks 75.2k or ETH breaks 2481 → rebound logic downgrades Is the 2750 really the ceiling for Ethereum?
Guys, I'm actually hesitant to chase too much right now.
$ETH If it really hits around 2750, I'd rather wait for a decent pullback than just assume the second main rally has already started.
The reason is simple:
If expectations of further tightening occur in October, market sentiment will continue to be under pressure. Continuous policy tightening is hard to ignore for risk assets.
Now let's look at the cycle.
Bitcoin's next halving is still coming soon. If we enter a super bull market right now, wouldn't it take a year or even nearly two years to keep rising?
Is this pace really reasonable?
So now my approach is simple:
There's nothing wrong with having more, and nothing wrong with being empty either.
But at this level, I personally am more cautious about a major pullback after $BTC and $ETH.
It's not that prices will definitely fall, but the more everyone thinks the "second wave of the bull market is coming," the more I want to wait for the market to give me a more comfortable entry position.
Don't rush to guess correctly, and don't rush to go all-in.
Truly big market trends rarely make everyone so comfortable getting into the car 😏
#DailyOrbit Latest Bearish Moves
🕵️ On-chain “Gambler” 0xff84: Despite forced liquidation, still holds massive short positions
This address was forcibly liquidated again for 288 BTC shorts (about $18.55 million) during the recent BTC rally, but still holds 512 BTC shorts (about $33 million), with a new liquidation price at $64,665. This address once held as many as 2,000 BTC short positions (about $125 million), making it one of the largest BTC shorts on-chain, showing extremely firm directional conviction.
🐻 Hyperliquid's second largest short 0xe2...3c8c: Adding more shorts as price rises
The anonymous whale address 0xe2...3c8c continued to add BTC shorts after the PPI data release, increasing holdings from 623.5 to 740.28 BTC (about $56.92 million), with 20x leverage, an average entry price of $78,475, and current unrealized profit of about $1.1765 million. Despite BTC surpassing 80,000, it maintains a high-leverage short position, clearly showing strong bearish intent.
📉 “Commander of the Shorts”: Historic large short, reversed after $400 million liquidation
This address was long the largest short across multiple coins, with weekly liquidations exceeding $400 million and a single largest liquidation of $13.25 million. After liquidation, it briefly reversed to long positions but overall still mainly shorts. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% Currently, the mainnets related to decentralized storage are basically only $AR, $ICP, and $FIL. Strictly speaking, if you exclude ICP, only AR and FIL remain, so there are very few targets, unlike the public chain sector which is much more crowded. Recently, open-source AI has been rapidly developing under the promotion of domestic AI, coupled with the continuous growth in centralized storage demand, which may drive an increase in demand for decentralized storage and decentralized AI. AR's total market value is still at a low level; if decentralized storage demand picks up later, there is considerable growth potential in the market.BTC surged to 81077, I'm not chasing, I'm waiting to buy at this level
At posting time BTC: 81077
ETH: 2613
Status: After the rate hike landed, the negative news is fully priced in, US stocks recovered + short covering, BTC shot up to 81k in one go.
But—81k is a previous dense chip area, the first time hitting it, it's easy to get a spike that shakes out chasing buyers.
My conclusion:
Don't chase 81k.
If it pulls back to 78500–79200 and doesn't break = second leg of the bulls, I will buy.
Stop loss at 77800, target 83k → 85k.
If it truly breaks through 81500 with volume and holds, chasing later is not too late, target 84k–86k.
My actions:
• Spot: hold the base position firmly, don't sell at 81k, add a position at 79k
• Futures: not opening now; buy 3x at 78500–79200, exit if breaks 77800; or chase 2x if breaks 81500 with volume, exit if falls back below 81k
• Grid: trade volatility in the 79k–81.5k range, don't be greedy
A harsh truth:
Those chasing longs at 81k are the same batch who panicked and cut losses at 75k.
The ones making money are not the "dare to rush", but those who "know where to rush and where to retreat" $BTC