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Earlier data showed that #Bitcoin ETF data weakened significantly compared to the overall crypto market funds last week, but today's speech by Waller brought an opportunity for the market to rise.
At this moment, whether it's driven by sentiment or a breakout on the chart, it would be good if #BTC can rise again. I mentioned last week that the 82,600 daily high level is very critical.
This rebound breaking the previous daily high means that a subsequent pullback to 63,000–65,000 is actually a buying opportunity, and the next rise breaking a new high would mark the start of a new trend, with market confidence increasing accordingly.
Conversely, if this rebound stops here, then after the pullback trend, we need to cautiously observe whether 58,000–60,000 can become effective support again before deciding whether to buy, and market confidence would be relatively weak.
Today's rise mainly comes from macro stimulus and the weakening probability of a September rate hike, but tomorrow's big non-farm payrolls may still reverse the situation, so we can't be too optimistic for now.
There are two uncertainties here: whether the job market can produce risk-free data proving accelerated weakening to further reduce the September rate hike probability, and on the other hand, with high oil prices, I'm not sure if this employment data can further reduce the probability of a September rate cut below 50%.
If tomorrow's data is favorable, and BTC breaks the previous daily high, even touching 84,000, I might consider it the best expectation at the current stage. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC strong break through 81200! It hit my stop loss, but I still refuse to accept it!
Tonight's BTC is crazy! Carelessly, even a genius trader like me got stopped out.
Everyone, look at that 4-hour big bullish candle, it has appeared twice in just one month, how can the bears survive?
I stared at the 81280 price and fell into deep thought! It's almost at the previous high point, circling back to this position. I expected it to come back, but I really didn't expect it to be this fast.
The script I imagined was that the main force would knock out most of the long stop losses, shake out the profit-taking positions, and then rally. I never expected them to be so impatient. The downtrend posed little threat to the bulls, just a mild and steady drop.
For the bulls who have long held positions and profited, this is just a minor event. So, there are still many profit-taking positions holding on, and the resistance to the rise remains.
The 4-hour MACD has crossed bullish again, the main upward wave of the bulls is very standard, showing violent rallies, strong support, and sideways consolidation.
However, although the price rose quite a bit this time, the cost of this rally is much higher than last time.
The reason is that in this rise, the shorts liquidated are not many in the total trading volume, so it’s not a full short squeeze driving the price up, but more real buying capital entering to push the price higher.
It’s important to note that many people think, wow! So many buyers, it must keep rising!
Here, I advise everyone to be clear-headed; the logic is not like that.
For example, the short squeeze on August 19th was triggered by a small amount of capital causing short liquidations and a chain reaction, leading to continuous price rises. Because few shorts entered, the short liquidations offset the selling pressure from the bulls, so after the price went up, it was hard to fall.
This time is different: the bulls flooded in like a tide, so the price surged and there are many profit-taking positions. Without short liquidations supporting the price, once the bulls take profits, there will be a risk of a rush to exit, and a sharp price drop is very likely.
So, the current situation is that shorting is difficult because the bulls are still strong, and going long is difficult because the price is already near a local high.
Therefore, I was liquidated and I really refuse to accept it, but I held back! I won’t short for now; the structure has changed. Watch how I get back what I lost today! So annoying! The market is running ahead on the eve of the non-farm payrolls; it’s important to distinguish: the current rise is due to rate cut expectations, not the actual data release.
The US stock market is no longer playable; the same pattern has been repeating for two weeks.
BTC holding the key range is driving overall market sentiment, and ETH’s Beta characteristics are starting to show. The two are currently showing a clear divergence in strength; $BTC’s holdings are more solid, while $ETH’s rebound relies more on short-term incremental funds.
Tonight’s rally is a leading expectation, with the biggest uncertainty still reserved for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls. If employment data exceeds market expectations, this wave of bulls could easily face concentrated profit-taking, and ETH’s pullback will be larger than BTC’s.ETH has had net capital inflows for 12 consecutive days, which is more worth watching than the price itself.
$ETH recently fell back to around $2400. On the surface, it doesn't look as strong as BTC did a few days ago, but there is a signal on the capital side that I find very important.
In the latest trading day, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $236 million, but ETH ETF continued to have a net inflow of about $11 million, and this has been the case for 12 consecutive trading days.
This is interesting.
Now, with such a poor macro environment, oil prices and US Treasury yields rising together, and high-volatility altcoins like SOL falling, institutional funds in ETH have not shown obvious withdrawal.
So around $2400, I am actually not too pessimistic.
Money is flowing out of $BTC, but money is still flowing into ETH.
If the macro environment eases a bit later, I think it’s only a matter of time before ETH challenges $2500 to $2550 again, and after breaking through, we can look at $2800. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue 🚨 Tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls could shake the entire crypto market — but here’s what most traders are missing.
Friday’s US jobs report is the last major piece of data before the next FOMC meeting, and everyone is watching for one thing: Will the data trigger a real market dump, or create another golden buying opportunity?
In my view, markets don’t simply trade the data — they trade expectations.
#DailyOrbit In the short term, the core issue is not whether bank stablecoins will be launched in 2027, but whether the market will trade on this expectation in advance.
With 21 banks collectively entering the scene, the most direct impact is not on USDT, but on $USDC.
Because once bank coins enter institutional settlement scenarios, the market will reprice USDC's "compliant dollar" premium.
So the short-term logic is simple:
Bank stablecoin expectation ↑ → USDC competitive pressure ↑ → $CRCL valuation under pressure.
Especially before the company entity, blockchain, and custodian are all implemented, this looks more like an expectation trade rather than a fundamental realization.
What’s more worth watching in the short term is not 2027, but the coming weeks:
$USDC circulation, exchange stablecoin spreads, $CRCL capital flows, and the subsequent concrete progress of the banking alliance.
In a word:
Trade expectations in the short term, trade fundamentals in the long term.
$USDC $CRCL
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops Brothers, CORE really has some issues these days.
The project team has confirmed that a few validators previously received CORE rewards exceeding expectations. The problem is now under control, and they are preparing an emergency hard fork to fix it. The key point is that this time it’s not a rollback, and confirmed transactions will not be reversed. The official statement says user assets are unaffected.
Honestly, when I saw the words "emergency hard fork," my first reaction was definitely not excitement but a sinking feeling. After all, CORE is already at a critical stage. The project team has been talking about BTCFi, BTC yields, income, and buybacks, and suddenly this technical issue arises. The market will definitely scrutinize it closely.
But I think we shouldn’t rush to condemn CORE just yet. What really matters now is how the project team handles the aftermath, when the hard fork will be completed, whether the technical review can clearly explain the problem, and exactly how much extra CORE was issued this time.
The BTC ETF is still affecting overall market sentiment. In August, BTC ETF net inflows hit the highest level since 2026 at $3.52 billion. In this environment, whether CORE can cleanly handle this mess is actually much more important than shouting "to the moon."
I still say, you can have faith in CORE, but when the project has problems, you have to keep an eye on it. Now it depends on whether the project team can fully resolve this issue after the hard fork.The non-farm payroll data at 20:30 is the last employment data before the September FOMC meeting. The market expects an increase of about 53,000 to 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September is about 60%. The data results will directly affect rate hike expectations and the trend of the crypto market.
Currently, $BTC has again broken through 80,000, with the 200-day moving average at 72,586 forming mid-term support. Previously, the ADP data showed only an increase of 38,000 jobs, and the market has partially priced in the "weak non-farm" expectation. If the non-farm payrolls are below 40,000, cooling rate hike expectations may drive BTC to rebound and test 80,000 USD;
$ETH broke through 2,400, down about 3.4% in the past week. Key resistance is at 2,430-2,450 USD and the psychological level of 2,500 USD, with support at 2,350-2,320 USD. A break below 2,300 USD could accelerate a drop to 2,200 USD. The good news is that US spot ETH has had net inflows exceeding 1.5 billion USD for 12 consecutive days, with spot buying providing support.
$SOL is holding at the key psychological level of 100 USD, having previously risen to 111-112 USD before retreating. The 20-day moving average at 95.22 USD is short-term dynamic support. Breaking above 102.61 USD is needed to open upward space to 107-112 USD. SOL is much more sensitive to liquidity changes than BTC and ETH, rebounding fastest when non-farm data is weak; if the data is strong and rate hike expectations rise, the 100 USD level may be lost, with the next support at 96-95 USD.Account Position Divergence Radar
Accounts first signal the direction, positions are responsible for verification; if they don't match, don't rush to draw conclusions.
$DOGE accounts lean bullish, while top positions lean bearish; the side with more people is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. Price is going down, positions are going up, risk exposure continues to expand during the decline. The next step for the bullish side is not more accounts, but confirmation of the top position weight.
$ZEC accounts lean bearish, while top positions lean bullish; the number of people and capital weight each stand on opposite sides. Price is going up, open interest is going down, the most certain factor is reduction in positions driving this, but the specific exit party cannot be confirmed by this data alone. The top position ratio moving below 1 indicates position weight starting to catch up with account sentiment.
$SUI account numbers and top position weights are still not aligned, keep the divergence label for now, the next layer is handed over to price and positions. When price falls, open interest increases simultaneously, this is not simply deleveraging, position attribution still needs transaction verification. Currently lacking a consistent direction, only when accounts, top positions, and price positions align consecutively can the divergence be considered truly over.What exactly happened to $BTC? It wasn't a sudden positive surprise; it was a pricing of rate hikes that was fully retraced overnight + a double hit to the US dollar and US Treasuries + BTC and gold simultaneously being redefined as "non-government credit assets." These three forces pulled BTC back from 76.4K to above 78.5K, while gold instantly surged 2.4% breaking 4,490.
One sentence from Waller + ADP 38K, September rate hike probability dropped from 62% to 48%, BTC and gold both surged.
Three triggers lit together.
Waller turns dovish: Fed Governor Waller hinted that if the 9/10 CPI remains good, the Fed could hold steady in September. The market cut the 9/16 25bp rate hike probability from 62.3% to 48%, a 14-point drop in one day.
Double hit to USD and Treasuries: DXY fell 0.64% to 98.92, 2Y Treasury yield dropped 6bps to 4.33%, 10Y yield fell from 4.818% to 4.75% — discount rates down, zero-coupon assets (gold) and long-duration assets (BTC with high beta) are simultaneously revalued.
ADP + initial jobless claims confirm cooling employment: August ADP only 38K (expected 47K), initial claims 206K slightly above expectations, weak employment + sticky inflation leads the market to choose "inflation will eventually force dovishness" rather than "Fed dares to hike aggressively."
Why BTC and gold rallied together?
The 30-day BTC-gold correlation coefficient surged to 0.8, a historic high. The logic has changed: US debt surpassing 40 trillion, inflation at 3.3% not retreating, funds do not choose one or the other but buy both gold + BTC as "non-government credit hedges" — in the past 5 days, combined ETF inflows for both reached $7 billion (SPDR $3.4B + IBIT $1.5B).
Why the overnight $4,800 surge:
Initial claims at 206K weak + Waller's "if inflation is good, no hike in September" → 9/16 25bp hike probability pricing dropped from 62.3% to 50.4% (12 points down in one day)
2Y Treasury at 4.33%, DXY at 98.9 double hit, zero-coupon assets revalued, gold surged breaking 4,490
9/2 BTC ETF net inflow $101.15M, 8/31 inflow $217M, institutions directly bought at 76-77K
Short squeeze: liquidation cluster at 76.5-78.3K triggered by a single spike, short covering accelerated the rebound
Current status of the short commander line:
Previous highs 81,354 (8/28) → 79,379 → 79,218 → 78,830, current 81,200 has broken 78,830 and touched back 81,354 neckline. But note — 81,354 is the right shoulder of a double top, 4H candle cannot hold above 81,400 = false breakout, not a reversal; a true reversal requires weekly close above 82,000 (50-week MA at 81,085 must hold).
Hard boundary marked at 81,200:
Resistance: 81,354 (previous high/double top neckline) → 81,850 (options 82K call concentrated expiry zone) → 82,000 → 83,100
Midline: 81,200 (current)
Support: 80,690 (lower edge of 50-week MA) → 79,387 → 78,830 → 77,382
Three scenarios before Nonfarm (9/4 20:30 is the switch):
4H close above 81,400 → double top invalidated, longs target 82,000, shorts exit all
Fail to surpass 81,354 + volume contraction → false breakout, pull back to 79,387–78,830 range, shorts can lightly enter
Break 79,387 but fail to reclaim 80K → this 76.4→81.2 rally is a short-covering bull trap, retest 78,330
Summary:
76.4K is on-chain absorption, 81.2K is the premium from rate hike probability retracement, the $4,800 in between is not a bull market return but a macro short squeeze before Nonfarm + options expiry (9/4 expiry of 2,000 contracts of 82K calls). If the 62%→50% probability is pushed back above 60% by strong Nonfarm data tonight, 81.2K will be a September fishing line. $BTC $ETH "It's premature to say 'MSCI is about to kick out financial stocks'; currently, it's just a consultation. The real focus is whether financing conditions will worsen.
The official plan sets two layers of screening: existing components must fail for two consecutive years to be removed; a single year of failure only puts them on the watchlist. Strategy sold stocks last week raising $602.8 million, of which $369.7 million was used to buy 4,603 BTC. If the index qualification lowers stock demand, the pressure will shift from financing ability to subsequent BTC buying.
BTC is clinging to resistance at 81,338.4 on the 4-hour chart. Holding above here means the market can still digest this controversy; falling back to the EMA20 at 78,385 means this wave cannot be considered a valid rebound. If MSCI abandons the proposal in October, the risk assessment becomes void.
$BTC
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice.$BTC's recent sharp rally is not a confirmed trend reversal but more like a short squeeze finale combined with resonance from macro news. From 64,000 to 79,500, ETH simultaneously surged to 2,400, but on 8/23 a high-level pullback signal appeared. In the last 24 hours, long position liquidations accounted for 80%, with total network liquidations at 880 million — the chasing-buy orders are being cleaned out.
The driving logic is clear: a drop in long-term US Treasury yields + White House summit expectations + strong forced liquidation of short positions in June (short liquidations exceeding 3 billion) have created a pile-up of buy orders from short covering, not genuine continuous spot accumulation. The ETF net inflow of 1.1 billion over two days is a handover, not ignition.
Strategically, only two entry methods are recognized: first, a pullback to BTC 74,000-76,000 or ETH 2,300-2,350 with volume contraction and stabilization, lightly testing longs with a stop loss below 1.5%; second, a real volume breakout above BTC 80,000 and ETH 2,500 with volume exceeding 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days, then follow up on the right side.
Currently, the daily RSI at 82 is severely overbought. Whales have transferred 7,700 BTC to exchanges in 3 days. Chasing the bullish candle now is equivalent to giving those who bottomed at 64,000 a chance to exit in the opposite direction. A sharp rally without a pullback directly charging up is highly likely a false breakout; waiting for a pullback is 5%-8% cheaper than chasing highs.
ETH is rated B+, better than BTC but requires structural confirmation. Patience is more important than courage. $BTC $BTC broke through $81,000, crazy surge late at night
Up 5.26% in the evening, directly rising from $77,000 to $81,000, and this is stablecoin
Big brother Maji's long position is worth about $100 million, now a large-scale recovery, breaking news shows big brother Maji closed HYPE long positions, overall floating profit over $4 million
$BTC 24-hour liquidations totaled $203 million, long liquidations $14.44 million, short liquidations $188 million, largest single liquidation $5.26 million, market liquidation status: mainly short liquidations, BTC price volatility today over 5.73%, globally 11,389 people liquidated
Currently, most of the market is bullish on Bitcoin, some even say it will hold above $80,000 and aim for $100,000, the bull market has started
However, I think this surge won't last long, the Fed rate hike probability in September is high, US-Iran conflict escalates, security concerns remain, market demand weakens, now it's just market sentiment driven by high price volatility, once stabilized it will lead to a decline
$BTC my view is this is a bull trap, the rise won't last, support levels aren't as strong as imagined, there is a large supply at the $83K-$86K range, just wait and see $SOL has entered the market, but only selectively buying what it favors.
ETF data has exposed the divergence among institutions: on September 1, BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $236 million, while ETH, SOL, and XRP recorded net inflows of $10.95 million, $10.19 million, and $14.38 million respectively. Funds are withdrawing from BTC to fill gaps in other major coins, showing a strong rotation trend.
But don’t rush to call it an altcoin season. This looks more like institutions rebalancing their positions—not stubbornly sticking to BTC alone, but actively diversifying across different sectors with much stricter selection criteria than before.
The real question is: where will the incremental funds go next? Will they continue to spread among mid-sized major coins like ETH and SOL, or circle back to BTC? No one can say for sure at this point.
With non-farm payroll data imminent and macro uncertainties unresolved, even coins supported by funds can see sudden reversals. In this differentiated market, the days of blindly buying and profiting are over. Going forward, continuous tracking of ETF fund flows will be necessary to judge where institutional preferences will shift next.Bitcoin suddenly surged to 81,000 in the early morning
The shorts got squeezed again
$BTC's rise tonight came very quickly.
The price broke through 81,000 from under 77,000 USD, and one of the catalysts behind this was Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaling that rates might remain unchanged in September, easing market concerns about tightening policies.
At the same time, global bond yields fell back from their 2026 highs, risk assets immediately started to rebound, BTC reclaimed 81,000, and crypto-related stocks also surged.
As a result, shorts were forced to cover again, with about $335 million in leveraged positions liquidated in just 4 hours.
This is why I have always thought that the longer the washout near 80,000 lasts, the more interesting it becomes.
After so many days of chip washing, once macro pressure eases a bit, $BTC can immediately pull back up.
If 83,000 is reached next, I think the market will soon start discussing 90,000 USD.BTC takes off strongly!
$BTC soared directly tonight! The real change is in the macro environment. After Waller's dovish remarks, the market's probability of a September rate hike dropped to about 54%, and US Treasury yields also fell accordingly, giving risk assets a breather. Holding above 80,000 is a complete breakthrough!
$ETH saw ETF net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days earlier, but funds have finally started to cool down, indicating that the strong rally in August is entering a digestion phase. The key here is not how much flows out in one day, but whether there will be continuous withdrawals afterward; if it quickly turns positive again, it’s mostly profit-taking, but continuous outflows over several days would indicate that institutional appetite for chasing prices is truly weakening.
$SKHYNIX’s AI storage segment has been weakening recently. However, all the news is positive: Hynix is continuing to expand HBM capacity while also discussing joint production with Kioxia, indicating that data center demand is no longer just about competing for GPUs—storage is becoming a bottleneck as well. Samsung’s faster pace does put pressure on valuations, but if the industry truly expects tight supply through 2030, competition will mainly be for incremental growth.
$XAU also took off directly tonight, as cooling rate hike expectations gave gold a fresh boost; $OKB continues to pull back, washing out earlier floating positions, with no new catalysts so far, so watch the volume; $QQQ benefits from the drop in US Treasury yields, temporarily easing pressure on tech valuations, but oil prices remain at six-week highs, so don’t rush to dismiss macro risks before the nonfarm payrolls report.
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
#30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% Arthur Hayes, the inventor of Bitcoin perpetual contracts, recently spoke again, marking 2030 as a noteworthy milestone. He predicts that Bitcoin could reach one million dollars by then, and the current area around 58,000 dollars might be the bottom of this cycle. In other words, he believes the most severe downturn is over, and what follows is more likely a slow and steady value recovery rather than a sharp V-shaped rebound. Meanwhile, he envisions Ethereum having a mid-to-long-term potential of 20,000 dollars. These figures may seem distant at present, but Hayes' observations are not without basis—his perspective mainly points to the long-term dilution of the fiat currency system and the potential position of crypto assets as alternative stores of value. However, looking at the immediate situation, the market is being driven by another main theme: before the non-farm payroll data release, various indicators show divergence, and expectations for a September rate hike are heating up again. The uncertainty of the interest rate path is compressing the valuation elasticity of risk assets and requires any cycle-based optimistic judgment to be thoroughly tested against macroeconomic data. Hayes' long-term narrative may hold, but the short-term rhythm will still be constrained by policy and liquidity. At such a point of clear divergence, maintaining position flexibility is more important than firmly believing in a single direction. Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; the above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously based on your own situation. $BTC $ETH🔥 $UNI surged over 50% in 30 days, and this time it's not just pure hype!
What really deserves attention is the sudden explosion of decentralized trading volume on Robinhood Chain.
In the past 24 hours, DEX trading volume once hit $1.89 billion, directly pushing Uniswap protocol fees to a new high.
Why is this important for $UNI?
Because the logic is becoming clearer:
Trading volume ↑ → Protocol fees ↑ → UNI buybacks ↑ → Circulating supply decreases → Token value capture strengthens
Previously, people speculated on Uniswap mostly based on the DeFi leader narrative.
But if Robinhood Chain continues to bring real trading volume into the Uniswap ecosystem, $UNI will gradually shift from a “governance token” to an asset capable of capturing protocol cash flow.
This is also one of the core catalysts behind UNI’s recent strength.
Of course, the short-term gains are already significant, and the RSI rising continuously means the risk of chasing the price higher is increasing.
What we really need to watch next is not whether the price can keep rising, but whether Robinhood Chain’s trading volume can be sustained.
If the data is not a flash in the pan, this UNI rally might be more than just a round of hype.
DeFi is starting to retell the story of “revenue + buybacks + deflation.”
UNI $ETH $SOL BTC has not truly broken down under the squeeze of oil prices and U.S. Treasury bonds
Looking at $BTC today, the most interesting thing is not that it dropped to around $77,000, but that it hasn't been smashed through despite such a grim macro backdrop. The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate, risks related to the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices above $90, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the market is again worried about a rate hike in September. According to previous patterns, this combination usually causes risk assets to fall first. But $BTC only retreated from around $80,000 and has been trading back and forth near $77,000, indicating that there is selling pressure in the market, but there are indeed buyers at the lower levels.
Many panic at the pullback, wondering if failing to hold $80,000 means the rally is over. I, on the other hand, think today looks more like the first stress test after the main uptrend. $BTC rose nearly 25% in August, and at the start of September it faced pressure from oil prices, U.S. bonds, and geopolitical conflicts all at once, so short-term profit-taking is normal. The key is not whether it fell 1% or 2%, but whether it triggered panic selling. So far, it hasn't reached that point; it's more about high-level chips being redistributed.
The current trading logic for $BTC is clear: $76,000 to $77,000 is the first support zone, $75,000 is the short-term emotional bottom line, and $80,000 is the confirmation threshold for regaining strength. As long as $75,000 is not effectively broken, bulls have not lost control; if $75,000 is broken with volume, caution is needed as the trend continuing from August may enter a deep shakeout. Short-term pullbacks are not feared; what is feared is no rebound after the pullback.
Another detail in today's market is that the strengthening dollar should theoretically suppress $BTC, but it hasn't collapsed like typical high-beta assets. This is important because the market is viewing $BTC in two ways simultaneously: on one hand, it is still a risk asset suppressed by interest rates; on the other hand, it is a hedge asset that attracts buying amid fiscal, war, and debt pressures. These two forces clash, causing the price to oscillate repeatedly at key levels.
The Trump factor cannot be ignored either. U.S. crypto policy is now more friendly, and the market is willing to discuss $BTC within the framework of "clearer regulation and better institutional allocation." Macro pressures weigh down, policy provides support; this push-pull structure is one reason the price hasn't collapsed outright today.
What will truly determine the next phase are U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve expectations. If employment continues to weaken, the market will bet on looser policy, and $BTC could likely challenge $80,000 again; if employment is strong, oil prices remain high, and rate hike probabilities rise, then $75,000 will be repeatedly tested. This is not a matter of simply "bullish" or "bearish"—one must watch macro data and market support closely.
My approach is simple: don't chase the excitement near $80,000, and don't panic blindly near $77,000. If the price pulls back near $76,000 with shrinking volume and holds, that is a position to observe bulls reorganizing; if it rebounds to $79,000 but volume is insufficient, it means short-term selling pressure hasn't cleared. The truly comfortable signal is a rebound above $80,000 with a pullback that doesn't break support—then the market will change its suspicion of a "false breakout" to a "pre-new-high shakeout."
One more reminder: this $BTC cycle is different from previous retail-driven bull runs. With ETFs, corporate treasuries, and institutional allocations entering, the rise will be slower but the bottom will be firmer. The downside is that getting rich overnight is difficult; the upside is that its mainline status becomes more stable. Today, altcoins have fallen harder than $BTC, signaling that when risk comes, capital prioritizes protecting the mainline, not the story.
So the conclusion is straightforward: today $BTC is not strong enough to ignore macro factors, but strong enough not to be broken by them. As long as $75,000 holds, the market is still consolidating at a high level; reclaiming $80,000 means sentiment turns bullish again; breaking below $75,000 means reducing position size and pace. The market is not denying opportunities now; it is punishing those who react chaotically to volatility.
Looking more closely, if you create content today, don't just write "BTC resists decline," write "who is behind the buying that supports the resistance." Retail investors usually don't buy into bad news; the price holding steady mostly reflects capital with allocation logic. This distinction makes the article more actionable: not just urging others to chase, but showing where capital remains and where it has withdrawn.Today's Cryptocurrency Market Rally Core Reasons (2026.9.4)
1. Macro Core: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Significantly Cool Down (Main Driver)
Fed Governor Waller released dovish remarks, clearly stating that if inflation continues to decline, the September FOMC meeting is inclined to keep rates unchanged and pause rate hikes. CME interest rate futures data show a sharp drop in the probability of a September rate hike, the US dollar index weakens, US Treasury yields decline, and global risk assets (US tech stocks, cryptocurrencies) collectively experience valuation recovery, with risk appetite significantly rebounding.
2. Concentrated Liquidation of Derivatives Shorts Accelerates the Rally
The crypto leverage market saw large-scale forced liquidations of shorts: over $300 million in shorts liquidated within 4 hours, and over $500 million liquidated across the entire market within 24 hours. A large amount of short-selling funds were forced to buy back, pushing prices higher, creating a "short squeeze" scenario that amplified the upward momentum.
3. Positive Expectations for US Crypto Regulatory Policies
The US Senate's "CLARITY Act" crypto regulatory bill is about to advance. The market expects the US to introduce a clear compliance framework for crypto assets, clarifying the distinction between crypto securities and commodities, reducing regulatory uncertainty, and increasing institutional capital willingness to enter. Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, providing long-term buying support.
4. Resonance and Strengthening in External Markets
US tech giants and crypto concept stocks (Coinbase, Galaxy Digital, etc.) rose sharply in sync, creating a positive feedback loop in risk asset sentiment, further driving a bullish atmosphere in the crypto market.CORE 的奖励地址出问题那一刻，最慌的不是散户，是那些靠套利吃饭的节点。 你有没有想过，一个链上合约的小 bug，为什么能让大所集体按下暂停键？ 事情其实不复杂。$CORE 的奖励分发地址出了差错，部分节点实际拿到的奖励超出了应得数量。链上数据骗不了人，超额分配一旦被确认，最直接的后果就是有人可能抢在修复前把多出来的币砸进市场。大所暂停充提，不是为了惩罚谁，而是先把自己从潜在的坏账里摘出来。 我看到很多人在喊"又要崩了"，但市场真正在交易的，其实是另一件事：这次暂停充提把套利通道焊死了，短期抛压被人为切断，可一旦恢复，积压的提现需求会不会变成二次抛售的燃料？ - 偏多的逻辑在于，CORE 作为一条有一定生态底子的公链，只要修复后奖励机制恢复正常，暂停期间积累的恐慌情绪反而可能变成筹码换手的契机。大户没跑，跑的是杠杆。 - 偏空的风险在于，节点奖励出错暴露的是治理层面的粗糙。如果连奖励分发这种核心环节都能出 bug，市场对它的技术信任度会被重新定价，这比短期币价波动更值得警惕。 注意一个被忽略的细节：小库 $BICO 还在公开支持大库，说它是一条优质公链。这种时候的站队，往往是项目方在BTC
Damn, the 10-year US Treasury yield is causing trouble again
It once surged to around 4.817% during the session
The highest since November 2023
Don't be fooled by the rise from 4.7% to 4.8%
In the financial market, these few basis points are no joke
Why is the market so scared?
Because the 10-year US Treasury
is, to some extent, the main valve of the global financial market
When it rises
mortgage rates, corporate financing, stock valuations, bond prices
and even global asset pricing all suffer
What's worse is
now oil prices are hovering around $90
The Middle East situation is still unsettled
Oil prices rise, inflation expectations go up, rate cut expectations go down, and US Treasury yields continue to climb
This creates a pretty nasty cycle
Moreover, the market is even betting on a Fed rate hike in September
The probability has reached about two-thirds
If that's the case
BTC is definitely going to take a hit $DOGE Haha, I am really satisfied with Dogecoin's performance tonight!
Dogecoin is very strong tonight, rising 10% in a few hours, leading the mainstream coins.
The price has risen to 0.08995, just a step away from 0.09, which puzzles me — it’s just 0.00005 short of breaking through, making the data look better?
What’s so scary about the 0.09 level?
I analyzed the fundamentals; the open interest (OI) is currently declining, having fallen below $70 million.
This indicates that the current rally is dominated by a short squeeze, with a large number of high-leverage positions driving this surge.
According to on-chain data, recently a whale accumulated 1.7 billion coins between 0.081 and 0.083.
Additionally, the Xpayments payment benefit has been hyped repeatedly; this news has been circulated over and over, each big surge is promoted again, really putting the main players in a tough spot, as they can’t find a better story to tell! 😂
The price, combined with the previous gains, has already increased significantly.
The short-term price is extremely deviated from the moving average, especially after the short squeeze, with OI continuously falling. I think it’s unrealistic for the main players to spend real money to push up a coin that has already risen so much, so the chance of a pullback is increasing.
Currently, a sideways consolidation is urgently needed to clear out the weak profit-taking positions, which might allow for a higher move.
For bulls, around 0.0895 could be considered for taking some profits to reduce the risk of drawdown caused by a pullback.
I do not recommend going fully short yet, because the uptrend stalling is likely due to insufficient short positions above, making it hard to maintain the short squeeze rally.
Now, there is a high chance that these shorts will become fuel for the main players to push the price up, so it’s best to wait for the market to stabilize, consolidate, and confirm direction before following the trend.
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice! This candlestick in the early morning was somewhat sudden. From 20:00 to 24:00, BTC climbed from around $77,936 all the way to $81,359, reaching a high of $81,377. It rose about 4.7% in the past 24 hours. ETH also climbed back above $2,500, SOL rose to around $105, and both DOGE and XRP rose more than 9%. The previously lackluster market finally came alive a bit, which is quite uplifting. But whether this good mood can continue, we need to first look at the US August nonfarm payroll data at 20:30 tonight. If you only look at new jobs this time, it's easy to misjudge the market. Whether the unemployment rate has changed, whether wage growth is hot, and whether previous values have been revised downward will all affect how the market interprets this report. If employment weakens significantly, funds may continue to ease concerns about a rate hike in September, giving BTC a chance to continue its rally from last night. But if employment and wages are both strong, the bullish sentiment that just heated up will likely cool down quickly. The most frustrating thing is actually the mixed data. For example, new jobs look average, but wages remain hot. No one can immediately draw conclusions about this outcome; it's not surprising if the candlestick first jumps up, then drops down. Waller's speech last night gave the market some breathing room. He said that if data released over the next two weeks continues to show inflation is declining, he tends to maintain current rates; If inflation rebounds in August, then the September 15-16 meeting could still raise rates. That's all for now$EGLD This short position is indeed a bit frustrating.
The total contract open interest across the network is 39 million, with a long-to-short ratio of 6 to 4, meaning 6 out of 10 people are chasing longs. Logically, in this situation, the manipulator should be dumping, but instead, it pulled the price up by 30 points during the market's slow decline, and the contract open interest multiplied several times in one day.
Why the pump?
Essentially, the chip structure is too light. EGLD's circulating market cap is less than 200 million, with very poor spot depth. Whales can push the price up by 30% with just a few million dollars. Additionally, during market oscillations, funds tend to concentrate on speculating small-cap altcoins, amplifying liquidity premiums.
But a pump doesn't mean a reversal.
On-chain data shows frequent large transfers and a clear increase in net inflows to exchanges—this looks more like a sign of a pump-and-dump rather than a trend reversal. Such volume-less pumps usually don't last long.
From a technical perspective, 5.3 is the first resistance level; above that, 5.8-6.0 is a vacuum zone with a chip gap. If it really pumps there, it’s likely to trigger a large number of limit sell orders.
Honestly, the core reason why people lose money shorting altcoins is heavy positions and high leverage, not the market targeting anyone. Small positions can withstand volatility; the altcoin game is that it will eventually come down.
My position is still open; I haven't exited.
If it breaks above 5.5, I admit defeat and will exit; if it doesn't, I'll add to my position when it comes down. Altcoins are about riding volatility—manage your position size well and patiently wait for the right moment. #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Reasons why Bitcoin can't fall further
It might be because leverage has mostly been washed out
$BTC has recently been fluctuating repeatedly between 77,000 and 80,000 USD, which looks exhausting, but the derivatives market has actually undergone a positive change.
After this round of adjustment, the open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has dropped to about 280,000 BTC, reaching the lowest level since May, while the funding rate has also returned to a relatively neutral level.
In other words, the high leverage from previous chasing rallies has been largely cleared out
So now I'm actually less afraid of this sideways movement.
The price is still high, but leverage has already been reduced first.
As long as 76,000 to 77,000 USD continues to hold, I prefer to interpret this period as chip consolidation.
The next time it retakes 80,000, the market might be healthier than before.
$BTC $SPCX Elon Musk's Nine Crazy Toys
Number Two: Kicked out of the driver's seat but didn't lose the race: X.com and PayPal
The public often views Musk being replaced as CEO of PayPal as a failed decision, but looking back at the merger process, it seems more like a corporate power struggle. In 1999, Musk invested the proceeds from Zip2 into X.com, aiming to build not just an online payment tool but a single portal encompassing deposits, payments, investments, and financial services. After X.com merged with Confinity, conflicts over branding, technical architecture, and management style were constant. In 2000, some executives pushed the board to replace Musk with Peter Thiel while Musk was abroad. Musk did not step down voluntarily, and the market did not reject the concept of online finance; he remained on the board and retained one of the largest shareholder positions. PayPal went public in 2002 and was acquired by eBay for about $1.5 billion the same year. It was spun off from eBay in 2015 and remains a publicly traded company today. Psychologically, this event may have made him permanently alert to control issues; without the protection of the board and capital, creative ideas might ultimately be taken over by others. More than twenty years later, he bought back the X.com domain and renamed Twitter to X, as if returning to the game that was forcibly interrupted back then. PayPal is not his decision's tombstone; rather, it proves he foresaw the future of online finance early on, only to have the controller taken from him by his own people in the first round.The ETF flows in the crypto market are revealing an important signal: 💸 $BTC → Outflow of about $236 million 💰 $ETH → Inflow of about $10.95 million 🟣 $SOL → Inflow of about $10.19 million 🟢 $XRP → Inflow of about $14.38 million On September 1, there was a significant capital outflow from the Bitcoin spot ETF, while ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to attract new funds. This does not mean the altcoin season is fully confirmed. But it does indicate one thing: institutional funds have not disappeared; they are just redirecting. 📌 Latest market update: On September 3, it was announced that spot BTC and ETH trading services will be offered to institutional clients in the UAE, showing that traditional financial institutions are still expanding their digital asset footprint. Meanwhile, the market remains influenced by interest rate expectations, oil prices, and geopolitical risks. Federal Reserve officials stated that if inflation continues to ease, they might support keeping rates unchanged in September, but rising oil prices could still change that judgment. So, what really matters now is not: "When will altcoin season start?" but rather: Where will the next round of incremental funds flow first? Can BTC's capital flow strengthen again? Can ETH continue to attract institutional allocations? Can the inflows into SOL and XRP translate into sustained market momentum? Capital is voting. Next, let's see who it will cast its vote for. 👀Capital inflows show divergence, market funds becoming increasingly selective
Currently, the crypto market is experiencing capital inflows, but the flow of funds shows a clear imbalance, with ETF fund data clearly reflecting internal institutional disagreements.
On September 1, BTC ETFs saw a large net outflow, with outflows reaching $236.46 million. In stark contrast, ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to see net inflows of $10.95 million, $10.19 million, and $14.38 million respectively. Institutional funds are flowing out of Bitcoin and reallocating to other major coins, highlighting a pronounced rotation of capital.
This phenomenon does not indicate that a full altcoin market rally has officially begun, nor can it directly confirm the arrival of an altcoin bull market. It more so reflects institutional fund selection; funds are no longer blindly piling into Bitcoin but are actively diversifying into other sectors, becoming more selective in their picks.
While BTC faces institutional sell-offs, other major coins continue to attract capital. The core market question becomes: which direction will the next wave of incremental funds choose? Will it continue to spread around mid-sized major coins like ETH and SOL, or will subsequent funds flow back into BTC?
With non-farm payroll data approaching and macro uncertainties still unresolved, even if some coins receive capital support, the market remains uncertain. Under this capital divergence pattern, the market is no longer a broad rally. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the ongoing changes in ETF funds to judge the direction of shifting capital preferences.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #FOMC last data set before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Elon Musk won big tonight, SPCX and TSLA both surged over 7%+
Nothing much to say, Musk's ecosystem collectively went wild tonight.
SPCX hit 151, up nearly 8 points, TSLA also soared over 7%, directly reaching 382. These two brothers taking off simultaneously is no coincidence.
The logic is basically twofold: first, the market sentiment is truly fomo, with expectations of Fed easing, funds are scooping up quality growth assets; second, Musk's recent moves in AI and aerospace are very frequent, and the market is repricing the "Musk premium."
Simply put, institutions are betting on the synergy of Musk's ecosystem—SPCX's Starlink + TSLA's autonomous driving + AI computing power. This storyline is sexy enough and enough to make funds rush in first.
But a reminder, such dual-line surges often come with short-term sentiment peaks. $TSLA $SPCX 🚨 Beyond Expectations! U.S. Services PMI Soars to 55.4, Recession Predictions Once Again "Proven Wrong"?
Key Data Overview:
- Actual: 55.4 (Significantly above expectations)
- Forecast: 54.3
- Previous: 54.1
- Key Signal: Continuous expansion with strengthening momentum
💥 Data Interpretation: The Resilient U.S. Economy
While the market is still debating between a "hard landing" or a "soft landing," the latest services PMI data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has thrown cold water on the bears.
1. Crushing Expectations, Rejecting Recession
The actual figure of 55.4 not only surpasses the previous 54.1 but also significantly exceeds the market forecast of 54.3. In economics, a PMI above 50 indicates expansion. The 55.4 reading means that the U.S. services sector — the core engine accounting for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy — is not only running but accelerating.
2. Trend Reversal, Momentum Rebound
The long-term chart below clearly shows that after peaking and falling in 2022, the ISM services PMI struggled around the 50 expansion-contraction line between 2023 and 2024. However, the latest green candlestick (green dot) establishes a clear short-term upward trend, indicating economic activity is emerging from the trough and re-entering a strong expansion phase.
📉 Potential Market Impact
This "red-hot" data report is destined to trigger a chain reaction in global financial markets:
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations Cool Down
This is the most direct impact. The strong performance in services suggests inflation may be sticky, and the economy is not fragile enough to require the Fed to immediately implement "preventive large rate cuts." The aggressively priced rate cut path may need revision, and the "Higher for Longer" interest rate environment might last longer than expected.
- U.S. Dollar Index Supported
With fundamentals stronger than Europe and other major economies, combined with delayed rate cut expectations, the dollar exchange rate is typically pushed higher. For non-U.S. currencies, this presents another stress test.
- Risk Assets as a "Double-Edged Sword"
- Positive side: The logic of "no news is good news" still partially applies here. A strong economy means corporate earnings have support, and U.S. stock markets (especially cyclical sectors) may rise short-term due to "recession fears easing."
- Negative side: If the market starts pricing in "no Fed rate cuts," concerns over tightening liquidity will suppress valuations, especially for high-growth tech stocks, where elevated risk-free rates remain a Damocles sword.
🔮 Summary: Don’t Short the U.S. Lightly
The core message from this chart is simple: don’t underestimate the resilience of the U.S. economy.
Despite a prolonged high interest rate environment, the services sector, a pillar of the economy, continues to operate above 55. For investors, now may not be the time to blindly bet on a "deep recession." Following the data’s guidance and staying flexible is the best strategy to navigate the current macroeconomic fog. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 After a sharp surge of nearly twenty thousand US dollars and subsequent consolidation, everyone is very nervous. The 'tyrant chart' has appeared again: many influencers who shouted last month that the price would crash from around 60,000 to thirty or forty thousand, wavered a bit and changed their stance when the price rose a couple of weeks ago. But after a slight short-term pullback in the last two or three days, they started shouting again that it will drop to 60,000. I actually think that if $BTC just consolidates here and pulls back a bit, it might be fine; the real thing to watch out for is if it first creates a higher high around 83,000—completely ending this downtrend. Then, those who originally expected a crash and a bottom in October based on the four-year cycle will believe the bull market has truly arrived, surrender there, and even chase the price up. The real correction is very likely to happen right there. When gathering information, remember to filter out the noise from those who are bullish when prices rise and bearish when prices fall. Non-farm payrolls are about to be released, BTC surged by two thousand points, and many are guessing whether the good news has been priced in advance.
I’m hesitant to chase here; it feels more like funds are preemptively speculating on the data.
Officials’ speeches have released dovish signals, but the services PMI data remains strong, inflationary pressure persists, and the probability of a 25BP rate hike in September remains high.
Tomorrow’s non-farm payroll expectation is an increase of 56,000; if the data strengthens, 80,000 will become a strong resistance again.
Looking at two market targets:
$BEAT is around 0.126, with decent 24-hour trading activity; previous unlocked chip selling pressure still exists. To open up upward space, holding above the 0.13 level is a key test.
$ZEC continues its strong momentum, currently near 860, with sustained large transactions and intense high-level speculation.
In the current situation, chasing highs has a poor risk-reward ratio, and betting against the trend on a pullback is equally risky.
BTC is approaching a key resistance level; I choose to watch patiently and not participate in a tail-end rally, waiting for the data release to seek more certain opportunities. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC $ETH Macro Background: US-Iran Conflict + Interest Rate Hike Expectations, Dual Pressure on BTC
Recently, the pressure on BTC is no longer just a technical issue; the macro environment is clearly deteriorating.
1. Escalation of US-Iran Conflict — The Biggest Geopolitical Risk
In early September, the US-Iran military conflict continued to escalate, causing crude oil prices to surge rapidly. Risk assets came under pressure, and BTC fell from above $79,000 to around $76,000-$77,000.
At the same time, Brent crude briefly broke above $93, and US Treasury yields rose again. The biggest problem caused by the geopolitical conflict is not just a simple risk-off sentiment but the potential for further pushing up energy prices, thereby intensifying inflationary pressure. (TradingView)
2. Interest Rate Hike Expectations — Still a Macro Headwind
After Jackson Hole, the market sharply increased expectations for a September rate hike, with CME data showing the highest probability close to over 60%.
However, the latest situation has changed; the probability of a September rate hike has fallen back to about 48%, mainly influenced by more dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials. In other words, the market has re-entered a phase of uncertainty where both hiking and not hiking are possible. (Barron's)
3. Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls — The Biggest Variable This Week
ADP employment data has shown signs of weakening, but a cooling labor market does not necessarily mean the Fed will not hike rates.
What the market is truly focused on now is: how weak the nonfarm payrolls will be and whether employment data can offset the inflationary pressure caused by rising crude oil prices.
If nonfarm payrolls are significantly weaker than expected, rate hike expectations may cool further, giving BTC a chance to rebound; but if employment data is stronger than expected and crude oil continues to rise, then September rate hike expectations may heat up again, and BTC will still face considerable short-term downside pressure.
Therefore, I will not judge bull or bear markets based on a single data point.
In the short term, watch the nonfarm payrolls first; the real macro key remains: employment + inflation + crude oil.
BTC’s downside needs to focus on the $68,000-$75,000 range, which can serve as a risk protection zone for subsequent market moves.
$BTC $ETH $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 BTC's September trend unfolds chronologically as follows. This report does not cite any specific price, level, probability, or capital data, only analyzing possible trend structures and market sentiment evolution. September 1–11: Upward attempts stalled, news disturbances gradually increase positioning. Time anchors: 9/4 Nonfarm Payrolls → 9/6 Large token unlocks → 9/10 PPI → 9/11 CPI possible scenarios: Buying attempts to advance, but upbound levels are blocked. The market opens with the previous upward momentum, making several attempts to push upward, but each time it approaches a key resistance zone, it is pushed back, forming a "try—fail—try again" cycle. This is not because there is no buying, but rather that buying pressure is insufficient to break through in one go. 9/4 Nonfarm Payrolls is the first watershed. Weak employment data weakens tightening expectations and benefits risk assets; Strong data intensifies tightening pricing and suppresses the market. This is the most important single-day volatility trigger before the FOMC: the unlocked large tokens on 9/6 disrupt supply. Although a large number of token unlocks do not guarantee specific outcomes, they significantly increase volatility and drag down overall market sentiment, causing a double blow to PPI and CPI from 9/10 to 9/11. These are the last two inflation readings before the FOMC, determining how the market bets on the mid-month interest rate decision. If the data is hot, tightening expectations heat up; If cool, it may change market policy bets. The meaning of unresolved challenges: the market is stuck at the "critical point," with volume rising but no result. This stage of rally is not a signal to increase positions but to reduce positionsThe dominance of USDT+USDC stablecoins broke below 9.65% today. Recall that according to our estimates, this level is a "watershed" between the bear and bull markets. A detailed analysis of this chart was made on August 27. Now, the dominance, in addition to the breakout of the level, has returned to a stable downtrend according to our indicator on the 4-hour TF. This is due to the fact that #ETH and 32 other assets from the TOP-200 have returned to a stable uptrend on the 4-hour TF. The nuance is that the chart has one Strong signal of potential loss per hourTonight $BTC and $ETH suddenly rose in sync, and the US stock market also followed suit. My $SPCX also turned green, with a moderate increase in trading volume.
The core reason is not positive news, but the market pricing in advance. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll data may be weak, and funds are rushing to anticipate a rate cut. The correlation between the US stock market and cryptocurrencies indicates the same underlying logic: improved liquidity expectations.
However, this kind of market that sells on expectations and buys on facts often experiences a pullback after the data is released. After tomorrow's non-farm payroll data comes out, whether to chase the rally or wait for a pullback to enter the market can be discussed.
#FOMC last set of data before: this Friday's non-farm payroll #30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days #There has been a clear dynamic change in recent news factors affecting Bitcoin's movement. The sudden shift in Fed policy expectations on September 3 has become the biggest variable currently, while previously feared market concerns about rate hike risks have significantly eased. 1. Short-term Technical Resistance (Mild Impact) 1. Long-term holder selling pressure zone between $83,000 and $86,000 - On-chain data shows that this range concentrates about 1.05 million Bitcoins (worth about $85 billion) of long-term holders, who have not sold after a full downward cycle, forming key resistance. - If the current price remains above $80,000, it will test whether holders take profits near the breakeven point, potentially triggering a phased pullback. 2. Doubts about the sustainability of ETF inflows - In August, the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $3.52 billion, but the inflow structure was highly concentrated: BlackRock IBIT alone contributed 75.6% ($2.3 billion), and there was already a single-day net outflow in the first week of September. - If subsequent inflows cannot be sustained, the market may fall back into liquidity inadequacy. II. Mid-term Market Sentiment Drivers (Moderate Impact) 1. Geopolitical Conflicts and Energy Price Volatility - Tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude prices above $90 per barrel, intensifying inflation concerns and indirectly affecting the Fed's policy path. - Rising oil prices may weaken demand for risk assets by squeezing corporate profits and consumer purchasing power, but the current impact has been partially offset by the Fed's dovish shift. 2. Regulatory Policy Progress - New from the US SECA quick glance at the liquidation data from the past 24 hours reveals the nature of this rally: shorts were forcibly liquidated for over 180 million, while longs only for a little over 10 million — this is a textbook short squeeze, not a rally driven by active buying capital.
A characteristic of a short squeeze is that it relies on the "passive buying" from shorts capitulating and closing positions; once all the stop losses are triggered, the fuel runs out. So after shorts are wiped out, many think the price will keep rising, but this is precisely when short-term tops are most likely to form.
Looking at the funding rates now, they have only mildly turned positive and haven't reached extreme levels, indicating that longs haven't been aggressively adding leverage — but this also means this rally lacks new long consensus to take over.
Don't equate "shorts being cleared" directly with "the start of a bull market"; those are two different things. Here's a subtle but very trade-relevant hidden signal covered by the K-line: Oman quietly rejected Iran's proposal to charge commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz — previously, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard hinted that the two countries had reached an agreement, but now that claim has been contradicted.
Why is this important? Over the past two weeks, oil prices have been rising steadily, with about half of that increase priced in as a "Strait of Hormuz chokepoint" premium. Now that narrative is cooling down, loosening one of the supports for oil price gains.
The transmission chain to crypto is like this: oil → inflation expectations → rate hike bets → pressure on risk assets. So if you reflexively shout "geopolitical tension means bullish BTC" at every sign of trouble, it's time to shelve that old script.
On the market front, don't chase trades in a panic over geopolitical news; the key is to see how it actually prices in.#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch a US Dollar Stablecoin
Twenty-one major overseas banks have come together, planning to release a coin pegged to the US dollar in the first half of 2027.
It will be a digital US dollar on the blockchain, with one coin equivalent to one US dollar.
I think this is a signal that traditional large institutions are gradually starting to accept the crypto ecosystem. In the long run, it will be easier for banks' money to enter the space, which is good for the entire industry.
However, I won’t rush in impulsively to bet on a big surge just because of this news.
First, this is only a plan; the actual launch won’t happen until 2027, so there’s still a long way to go with many uncertainties. Right now, it’s mostly hype and won’t immediately drive a market surge.
Second, products made by banks will definitely have to comply with various regulatory rules. The controls will be much stricter than now, and the user experience may not be the same as what we’re used to.
In the short term, how the market moves still depends on the Federal Reserve, non-farm payroll data, and other indicators. This news won’t change the current market situation. $BTC $ETH $SOL The signal to watch most closely right now: greed is replacing divergence as the biggest market risk
When BTC consolidates with low volume at a high level and altcoins start to rise indiscriminately, what I hear most is no longer "Will it fall?" but "What to buy to double the fastest." Technical analysis in group chats is becoming less frequent, while screenshots of orders and trades are increasing, and even the most conservative friends are starting to ask how to increase leverage — this shift makes me more uneasy than any bearish divergence
The most dangerous moments in the market are often not continuous declines, but when all pullbacks are instantly bought back and the long-short ratio is extremely skewed. At this point, fundamentals no longer matter; chip turnover changes from "exchanging beliefs" to "fool's relay." Once marginal new funds weaken, the structure will collapse under its own weight
Underlying coordinates more worth monitoring than drawing lines:
First, BTC is the "pressure relief valve" of the market. If BTC can maintain a narrow consolidation above the MA120, it indicates systemic risk is still distant; but if it breaks down below the recent consolidation support with volume, no matter how calm the news is, it could trigger a sentiment reversal. The longer the sideways movement, the greater the inertia for a trend change
Second, ETH is the "leading indicator" of altcoin liquidity. If the exchange rate stabilizes and rises, there is confidence for capital to overflow; if the exchange rate continues to weaken or key support is lost, the rotation game of altcoins may pause at any time. If ETH is stable, the sector dares to follow; if ETH is weak, independent rallies are mostly traps
The best current strategy is not to bet on direction, but to reduce leverage and control position size, letting the "fear of missing out" settle down. Real opportunities always come after the next panic8:30 PM tonight, key variable: $BTC Don't rush to judge bullish or bearish.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
On September 4th, 8:30 PM Beijing time, August nonfarm payrolls will be released. The market's habitual reaction: poor data bets on rate cuts as positive, good data bets on tightening as negative. But this time, the script isn't that simple.
Compared to "new additions," the market fears "revisions to previous data" more.
July employment decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by over 100,000 combined — the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' "post-facto corrections" have become routine. If tomorrow night’s new additions turn positive, but the previous two months are sharply revised down, the quality of this "improvement" is questionable. Focusing only on the headline number might mean the market doesn't even understand what it's trading.
For BTC, expectations of rate cuts do not equal direct benefits.
Cooling employment eases rate hike pressure, provided the market believes the economy can "soft land." If the data reveals signs of recession, risk assets will be sold off first, and BTC will hardly be an exception. When the "recession trade" hit in 2022, this correlation was always present.
The core focus: whether the quality of new employment can withstand revisions, and whether wage growth slows down simultaneously.
A reminder: this is the last nonfarm payroll report before the rate decision, but not the final verdict — the CPI on September 11th is the decisive factor. Even if the direction is guessed right tomorrow night, it’s only a preliminary round.
It’s too early to set the tone for the rate hike path based on a single number. If holding positions over the weekend, fasten your seatbelt and leave enough room for error. It’s not hard to guess the direction, but surviving the interim volatility is the challenge.#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
Short term: The non-farm payroll data will determine whether the probability of a rate hike in September rises or falls, directly affecting whether institutions increase or decrease their ETF positions after the data release. The market has already reduced positions ahead of the non-farm data (ending 12 consecutive days of inflows).
Medium term: The CPI on September 11 is the real "decisive factor." The ETF fund flow changes caused by the non-farm data are more likely to be impulsive, while the CPI will determine the final rate decision of the FOMC on September 15-16.
Structural: Even if short-term fund flows fluctuate, the sustained net inflow trend of the Ethereum ETF from the end of August to early September reflects that institutional demand for ETH allocation is still accumulating. This structural demand will not fundamentally reverse due to a single month's non-farm data. $ETH Crude oil hasn't been blocked at the Strait of Hormuz, but it's stuck in the global supply chain.
These past couple of days, crude oil has really pushed emotions to the limit.
The Strait of Hormuz hasn't been completely blocked as many imagined; the real trouble lies in the rerouted supply chain. Saudi exports have dropped to multi-year lows, Red Sea transport is disrupted, and Russian energy facilities are under pressure.
As a result, oil prices have been pushed up continuously, with Brent crude reaching a six-week high again.
But the more I see this, the less I want to chase the long side.
I'm even preparing to try a small short position on crude oil.
Not because I think the supply issues are fake—on the contrary, the problems are real.
But the biggest risk in trading is mixing "facts" with "how much higher prices can still go."
Right now, oil price trading isn't just about crude itself; it's a combination of transport risks, supply concerns, inflation expectations, and emotional premiums all stacked together.
So what I want to try isn't guessing the oil price peak.
I just feel that when all the bad news has already been used to fuel the bulls, can every new piece of news still push the price up by the same magnitude?
If it can keep surging, I'll admit it.
If the risk premium starts to fade, then this small short position of mine becomes interesting.
Small position, no directional bet, just a trading logic:
Crude oil isn't blocked at the Strait of Hormuz, but could the price already be stuck in sentiment?
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $CL $BZ The market sentiment clearly returned today, with ETH rising nearly 5% in one day.
While others are chasing the rally, babala opened a short position at 2500.
I'm not bearish on ETH in the long term, nor do I think this rebound is over.
This trade is based on a short-term logic: ETH quickly surged from around 2370 to a high of 2515, a significant increase in a short time, and 2500–2520 happens to be a round number resistance zone.
When the price rises too fast, more funds chase the long side.
But the more everyone gets excited, the less willing I am to take the last leg at the resistance.
ETH's rise today is partly due to BTC strengthening again, boosting sentiment across the crypto market; and partly because ETH spot ETFs have been continuously attracting inflows recently, reducing circulating supply on exchanges.
These are the bulls' current advantages and also the biggest risk to my short position.
So I won't force myself to believe ETH must fall just because I opened a short.
What I really watch is whether the price can continue to hold above 2520 with volume after breaking 2500.
If it can't hold, the funds chasing the rally earlier may start to take profits, and ETH might first retest 2450, or weaker, 2400–2380.
My plan is:
✔ Open short at 2500
✔ Take partial profit near 2450
✔ If it breaks below 2450, hold remaining position for 2400–2380
✔ If it reclaims 2520, I will actively reduce my position
✔ If it effectively breaks 2535, this short trade will be stopped out
Based on opening at 2500 and stop loss at 2535, my risk is about 1.4%.
The first target at 2450 offers a $50 range, the second target at 2400 offers $100. This risk-reward ratio is acceptable, so I'm willing to try this short.
The worst thing about shorting against the trend is not being wrong in judgment, but continuing to find excuses even when the price clearly tells you otherwise.
I can be bearish at 2500, but if the market holds above 2535, I will admit my mistake straightforwardly.
Trading is not about proving you're always right, but about taking more when you're right and losing less when you're wrong.1. Tonight at 20:30, U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls Report The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report tonight at 20:30 Beijing time. The various forecasts differ somewhat, with new nonfarm payrolls expected to be roughly between 55,000 and 65,000, and the unemployment rate forecasted between 4.1% and 4.2%; July's nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000. This baseline is already weak, so if August employment continues to cool, the market may further lower its expectations for a September rate hike. Conversely, if both employment numbers and wage growth are hotter than expected, the risk appetite that was just restored in the early hours could quickly give back some gains. 2. Waller Speaks, Market Pulls Back Rate Hike Expectations Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool in August, he tends to maintain rates unchanged in September; if inflation heats up again, he would consider supporting a rate hike. After his remarks, U.S. stocks rose, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and BTC accelerated as well. Reuters' technical analysis on September 3 listed around $82,793 as a key resistance level above BTC and $75,674 as a level to watch below. BTC is now not far from the upper resistance, so chasing gains at this level does not actually offer as comfortable odds as a big bullish candle might suggest. 3. ETF Money Flows Back to BTC, ETH Sees Outflows The latest fully disclosed data as of September 2 shows: U.S. spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $101.1 million, with BlackRock's IBIT inflow at $115.4 million, while Grayscale's GBTC saw an outflow of $56.2 million New developments have emerged in Iran's strike range, with reports claiming missiles and drones have targeted the US military base Ali Al Salem in Kuwait. The local air defense system intercepted attacks for the second consecutive night, and a US-related residential area was hit and caught fire. The US side's preliminary assessment indicates no casualties so far, and the extent of damage to the base has not been fully verified. There are discrepancies between the two sides' statements, and more definitive information is awaited.
What truly deserves attention is the change in the conflict radius. Previously, the focus was on direct US-Iran confrontation and the Strait of Hormuz. Now, retaliatory actions are spreading to US-deployed countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq, with risks expanding from a single battlefield to the entire Gulf military network.
However, the market reaction is somewhat restrained, with Brent crude around $95.2 and WTI around $90.8, both declining rather than rising. The reason is the coexistence of geopolitical premiums and short-term cooling expectations: no confirmation of new large-scale clashes within hours, and Trump also stated that the new round of actions will not be prolonged.
Currently, there are two scenarios: if attacks affect energy facilities such as refineries and ports, the probability of oil prices breaking through $100 increases, and inflationary pressure will transmit to Federal Reserve policy and BTC; if the conflict is limited to military targets and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, market sentiment may stabilize. Regarding data, this Friday's nonfarm payrolls are a key reference before the FOMC, and volatility may intensify.
Risk warning: The geopolitical situation changes rapidly, and information verification may lag. Please assess risks cautiously. $BTCMany people focus on the historical average 3% drop in September to short, but actually the past three Septembers all ended up rising. This August also saw one of the strongest performances in recent years, so simply applying seasonality can easily lead to misjudgment. The current core contradiction is: whether ETFs can continue to absorb profit-taking, and whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in mid-September. If interest rates remain unchanged and funds continue to flow in, $BTC could completely break the "September curse" once again. Shouting out a crazy chase of 230 billion for Nvidia: Behind Broadcom's confidence, who is undermining Jensen Huang?
The era when Nvidia monopolized computing power and made the entire industry pay expensive taxes is facing Wall Street's fiercest gravedigger.
Broadcom has directly set an astonishing AI chip revenue target of 230 billion USD for the coming years. Daring to openly compete on Jensen Huang's home turf, its fundamental reliance is not on head-to-head competition with general-purpose GPUs, but on the global tech giants' collective mass exodus from Nvidia.
Think about it, Google, Meta, and major cloud providers have long been fed up with contributing 70% of gross profit to Nvidia. They are frantically investing in developing their own custom chips, and Broadcom is the only super arms dealer behind this group of trillion-dollar giants. From custom chip design to Ethernet switching bases, Broadcom is capturing the biggest dividend as AI infrastructure shifts from general monopoly to self-developed internal competition.
This calculation is also a loud wake-up call for the AI concept hype in the crypto circle.
Many retail investors in the secondary market are still blindly speculating on decentralized computing power projects renting GPUs, unaware that traditional top-tier computing power architecture has already entered the era of custom chips and high-speed clusters. If you only look at hype concepts and ignore the reality that computing power industrialization is rapidly lowering marginal costs, you will often be ruthlessly eliminated by the new hardware of the times.
Understanding this power throne handover, how much longer do you think Nvidia's moat can hold, and can Broadcom truly rewrite the AI chip landscape?
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引