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#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Someone in the group asked me if I’m still holding short positions, but I didn’t dare to reply because I’m pretty panicked myself 😅
After thoroughly reviewing the market, I still have a bearish outlook. It’s not just emotional hype; the signals are too clear. According to online reports, there’s a 68% chance of a rate hike in September, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, Japanese government bond yields have broken 3%, and after Wash’s hawkish stance, the market is moving toward tighter and longer conditions. On-chain whales have been transferring BTC and ETH to exchanges; the sideways movement is a sign of distribution, not accumulation, and ETH is even weaker than BTC. 21 banks issued stablecoins, Broadcom exceeded expectations, Snowflake rose 24%, but $BTC and $ETH only rose slightly. The positive news can’t push prices up, indicating the internal structure is already bearish.
I used to believe the positive news would trigger a catch-up rally, but I chased in and got stuck for half a month, losing 2300 and cutting losses to exit. My judgment is simple: if non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, it will directly break through 76000. Even if non-farm is weak, CPI is the real judge. In Wash’s framework, inflation is the core variable; weak employment doesn’t mean no rate hikes.
Are you still holding long positions? Let me see in the comments how many people are going against me 😂 Don’t blame me if you lose; I’m still holding on myself. What is driving CRV coin towards the 10U mark?
📊 Basic calculations
CRV circulating supply is about 1.55 billion tokens.
If the coin price reaches 10U, the corresponding market cap would need to be: 15.5 billion USD.
Compared to the current market cap in the hundreds of millions, this requires a market cap growth of several tens of times.
The historical CRV peak was 15.37U, which was created by a special environment with very few early bull market chips.
✅ Five core pillars CRV must rely on to reach 10U
1️⃣ Business explosion: crvUSD and Llamalend lending become the second growth curve
Curve’s traditional advantage is low slippage trading of stablecoins; relying only on spot stablecoin trading makes it difficult to support a market cap at the hundred-billion level.
- Wide adoption of crvUSD algorithmic stablecoin, Llamalend V2 lending market volume expansion, lending interest becomes a major new source of protocol revenue.
- Large-scale integration of RWA (real-world assets) and institutional stablecoins into Curve pools, TVL and real trading volume multiply, protocol fee income surges.
Revenue is the foundation of CRV’s value; the protocol’s real profit scale determines the attractiveness of veCRV locking.
2️⃣ veCRV locking flywheel continues to strengthen, large amounts of circulating tokens voluntarily locked
Currently, voluntary (veCRV) locking accounts for about 68% of the circulating supply.
To reach 10U, it requires:
- Protocol dividend income continues to rise, attracting more holders to actively lock CRV into veCRV;
- Further contraction of sellable liquid tokens on the market;
- "Curve wars" replay, whales competing for governance weight, actively absorbing circulating tokens.
Note: veCRV is user voluntary locking, not project team locking; in bearish markets, locks expiring will release large sell pressure.
3️⃣ Inflation pressure is largely hedged, DAO governance optimizes token release
CRV’s biggest long-term burden: continuous inflation issuance from liquidity mining every year, decreasing by 16% annually, continuously producing new CRV distributed to LP miners.
To reach 10U, one of the following must be achieved:
1. DAO votes to significantly reduce mining emission rate, lowering new token supply;
2. Protocol revenue is large enough that dividend income fully covers selling pressure caused by inflation.
The team and investor tokens have long been fully unlocked, so no large team unlock sell pressure exists, which is a major advantage for CRV, but mining inflation remains a long-term constraint.
4️⃣ Defend the moat of the track, prevent competitors from eroding market share
CRV’s foundation is low slippage trading of stablecoins and staked derivatives.
Competitors like Uniswap and Aerodrome continuously compete for stablecoin liquidity pools.
- Must maintain leadership in stablecoin trading;
- Expand multi-chain deployment, spreading Curve protocol to more public chains to enlarge the ecosystem footprint.
Losing core track market share will shrink revenue and invalidate all upward logic.
5️⃣ Super bull market environment, DeFi sector sees institutional capital inflow
10U is a very high target, difficult to achieve by project development alone, relying on external macro environment:
- Overall crypto bull market, large-scale capital returning to established DeFi blue chips;
- Clear DeFi regulatory environment, institutional capital allocating to DeFi underlying protocols;
- Market willing to assign high valuations to DeFi track.#FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday. Don't overhype the impact of Nonfarm Payrolls on the mid-to-long-term market trend.
On the eve of Nonfarm Payrolls, market trading tends to be cautious, with $BTC continuously tugging back and forth between the 77000‑78000 range. Leading employment indicators have weakened, but expectations for rate hikes remain high. Nonfarm Payrolls are just the appetizer; the core factor deciding whether there will be a rate hike in September is next week's CPI report.
Strong data tends to increase downward pressure, while weak data may test higher levels. Tonight, focus on the directional breakout of the range.
Do you think Nonfarm Payrolls will drive the price to break down, or trigger a rebound rally? Robinhood Coin Stock Meme NUDES Market Cap Surpasses $23 Million, Hits New High On September 4th, according to GMGN data, the market cap of the Coin Stock Meme project NUDES on Robinhood Chain surpassed $23 million, reaching a historic high, with a 24-hour increase of over 113% and a trading volume of $13.9 million. NUDES is paired with tokenized US stock Snap, ticker symbol SNAP. NUDES represents the emerging Coin Stock Meme gameplay. Unlike traditional Meme coins paired with USDT or ETH, Coin Stock Meme directly pairs Meme coins with on-chain tokenized US stocks; NUDES is paired with the tokenized US stock Snap. This model retains the high volatility and community-driven speculative nature of Meme coins while leveraging the popularity and narrative of real stocks. Transaction fees often partially flow back to the community treasury to accumulate the corresponding US stock tokens, creating a dual-driven structure of sentiment speculation and real asset anchoring. This market trend reflects a new fusion of tokenized stocks and Meme culture: as traditional broker Robinhood enters the on-chain ecosystem, tokenized US stocks are becoming a new narrative vehicle for on-chain speculative capital, and the derived Meme gameplay is gaining independent popularity and liquidity. However, it must be made clear that the prices of such assets are entirely driven by community sentiment and short-term capital, lacking fundamental support. The explosion in market cap and trading volume does not represent substantial capital inflow into the corresponding stocks, nor does itAs BTC quickly surged from 63,000 to 80,000, traditional finance professionals have started paying attention to the crypto space again.
Over the past week or so, I’ve been invited to calls by more than 20 leading brokerages and traditional buy-side institutions, all asking how to view this Bitcoin rally—whether the bear market is truly over or if it’s just a short squeeze.
Here are a few personal judgments, not investment advice:
1️⃣ Bitcoin has always been known for its large volatility and explosive rallies; it just lost the spotlight to AI over the past year. Now that the AI hype is reaching a turning point, Bitcoin is simply returning to its former self.
2️⃣ Bitcoin is a stubborn asset—every cycle, some people short it out of disbelief, only to end up fueling the rally.
3️⃣ The low of 57,800 in this cycle was most likely caused by market panic triggered by the Strategy board’s approval of coin sales on June 29. Although Strategy has sold coins multiple times since, it hasn’t broken that low again, indicating the market has mentally adjusted.
4️⃣ The highs in AI hardware stocks in May-June were purely emotion-driven, just like every peak in Bitcoin bull markets. This sector remains extremely crowded, with capital continuing to flow out, so only lower highs are expected over the next 12 months.
5️⃣ The macro environment is indeed under pressure, but that’s long-term pressure. Crypto assets still have room to run at this level. Plus, some people outside our industry are even more anxious; our scale is small, so everything is subject to change.
6️⃣ In this rally so far, conservatively 70% of native crypto participants have missed out, and 99% of outsiders have missed out. There’s no worry about a lack of buyers or no one getting on board.
7️⃣ Previous bear markets took 12-13 months to recover, with maximum drawdowns often exceeding 70%. This time, neither the magnitude nor the duration has reached that level.
8️⃣ Speaking of which, it just broke 81,000 again. If it breaks 83,000, we could see prices in the 90,000s.On September 2nd, the total holdings of $BTC spot ETFs rebounded to 1,259,084.11 BTC, with a net increase of 1,637.20 BTC on the day, partially recovering the outflows from September 1st, but the recovery strength is still insufficient.
The net outflow on September 1st was 3,153.48 BTC, and the inflow on September 2nd only recouped about half of that, so the past two days resemble funds being tugged back and forth at a high level rather than returning to the continuous and stable accumulation seen at the end of August.
In the first three trading days of this week, the cumulative net increase was 1,083.06 BTC, and over the past seven trading days, the cumulative net increase was 8,828.45 BTC, indicating that short-term capital flow remains positive, but the advantage has clearly narrowed, with strength not comparable to the last week of August.
Structurally, the BTC capital inflow on September 2nd was still relatively concentrated. The BTC inflow that day was not a broad-based recovery but mainly supported by a few products, especially BlackRock.28x in a single day! Apple paired stock Meme ICOIN market cap surpasses $5.5 million On September 4, according to GMGN market data, the market cap of the stock Meme ICOIN on Robinhood Chain exceeded $5.5 million, reaching a recent high and approaching the all-time peak of $5.8 million, with a 24-hour increase of over 28 times and a trading volume of $8.9 million. The uniqueness of ICOIN lies in that it is not paired with USDT or ETH, but directly forms a trading pair with tokenized Apple stock (AAPL). Stock Meme is a recently emerging on-chain play: it directly binds traditional Meme coins with tokenized stocks, so trading pairs are no longer USDT or ETH, but on-chain stock tokens like NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, etc. This design on one hand retains the high volatility and community-driven speculative nature of Meme coins, and on the other hand leverages the popularity and narrative of real stocks, attracting overlapping attention from two types of capital. Mechanically, the transaction fees of such coins often partially flow back to the community treasury to continuously accumulate the corresponding stock tokens, thus forming a dual-driven model of "sentiment speculation + real asset anchoring." ICOIN's 28x single-day surge is a typical example of this model: Apple's global recognition provides natural topicality for the token, and the on-chain community's capital relay further amplifies volatility. It should be noted that the $5.5 million market cap is still very small, liquidity is limited, and prices are easily driven by small amounts of capital, posing a risk of chasing highs Robinhood Chain volume keeps climbing. Dune shows $1.89B in 24h DEX volume, and DeFiLlama puts 24h chain revenue near $3.38M, above most major chains. Built on Arbitrum's stack, it has generated licensing income for Arbitrum DAO, supporting ARB's revenue narrative. Memes like CashCat and Pons drive most of the heat, so the question is whether this becomes real trading and RWA demand or just hype and subsidies. OKX's built-in DEX now supports Robinhood Chain tokens with 0 gas fee perks.$Today, the brightest star in the crypto market isn't BTC, but ZEC. It surged 13% in a single day, reaching a peak of $950, an eight-year high. Starting from this year's bottom of just over $60, it's already increased 15 times. Many people are still confused, but Stroll Goose will break down why this surge is happening. Five catalysts are fermenting simultaneously, and none can be missing: First, Grayscale's Zcash Trust ETF is officially launched. This is the most critical increment—compliant institutions and traditional funds finally have a direct channel to buy ZEC, so they no longer have to risk on exchanges. After the ETF launched, funds kept flowing in, directly driving up the price. Second, Grayscale released a major research report positioning ZEC as "the core privacy infrastructure to combat financial surveillance in the AI era." This narrative is clever—the more advanced AI becomes, the more valuable data privacy becomes, and Zcash's trading blocking feature hits this pain point. Third, Multicoin Capital co-founder Tushar Jain publicly revealed that he heavily invested in ZEC this year. His reasoning is straightforward: Zcash best fits Satoshi Nakamoto's original cypherpunk vision—privacy, censorship resistance, financial freedom—these things are even scarcer today. Fourth, the Halo2 technology upgrade is implemented. This upgrade completely removes the old issue of "trusted settings," making private transactions faster, lighter, and more secure. Technically, Zcash has already pulled ahead of other privacy coins, which is a real fundamental improvement. Fifth, and the most direct trigger—short liquidation. ChainSun Yuchen's BTC, ETH, and USDT mostly belong to Huobi users, many of which have been repeatedly leveraged through on-chain cyclic loans, so the truly available portion may be far less than the book value.
The book valuation of TRX is about 19.4 billion, but even a slight sell-off could trigger a panic stampede because there simply isn't enough liquidity.
He cannot recklessly squander the assets of Huobi users.
If a run on Huobi occurs, he must sell assets to meet withdrawal demands.🟢 Market and Trading Bulletin: Recovery Conditional on Easing Geopolitical Concerns and Inflation Pressures 🕊️ Geopolitical Scene: On Thursday, markets experienced a rebound and a breather following the subsiding panic caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. This recovery came behind the scenes amid reports that Trump is considering an official announcement to end the war, which led to a decrease in the geopolitical risk premium and a drop in Brent crude prices from $96 on Wednesday to below $95. ⚠️ Analysis: Despite this decline, oil prices remain 40% higher compared to the same period of theAfter a comprehensive review, I remain bearish.
It's not just emotional hype; the signals from the market are too clear.
On the macro level, it's all negative. The probability of a rate hike in September is 68%, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, Japanese government bond yields have broken 3%, liquidity is tightening, not loosening. After Waller turned hawkish, the market's pricing for rate hikes is moving toward "tighter and longer," not "tightening then easing." #日本长债收益率升至高位
On-chain, the chips are loosening. Whales have been transferring $BTC and $ETH to exchanges continuously; a sideways market is a sign of selling, not accumulation. $ETH is weaker than $BTC, and whales have never stopped moving coins to exchanges.
On the news front, all positives have lost effect. Broadcom's earnings beat expectations, Snowflake surged 24%, 21 banks issued stablecoins, yet $BTC and $ETH only rose slightly. Positive news can't drive the market, but negative news triggers a stampede. This only shows the market's internal structure is already bearish. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
The conclusion now is simple: if the non-farm payroll data beats expectations, it will directly break through 76,000. Even if non-farm is weak, CPI is the ultimate judge, and in Waller's framework, inflation is the core variable; weak employment does not mean no rate hikes. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$BTC, $ETH, and $SOL — all three are bearish. Until the direction changes, do not easily turn bullish Can TRUMP still hold? Let's be realistic
The surge in late August was basically driven by two things: the White House crypto meeting calling for the CLARITY Act, and the early brewing expectations for the midterm elections. TRUMP, as a sentiment indicator, is much more volatile than BTC, with funds rushing in all at once.
Now, in early September, the logic has changed. Some of the positive news has been realized, and funds are starting to wait and see, no longer rushing in blindly.
From now on, just watch three lines:
① Progress of the CLARITY Act — verbal calls and actual implementation are two different things; the tug-of-war between the House and Senate will be long, and cooling off would be the biggest negative.
② Midterm election polls — every time the polls fluctuate, TRUMP moves accordingly; this is its pricing anchor.
③ Selling pressure — project teams hold a lot of tokens, unlocking and dumping can crash the market anytime; this is unpredictable and must be guarded against.
To be honest: TRUMP is essentially still a Meme coin, with no fundamentals, relying entirely on narrative and sentiment. It rises fast and falls even faster. In the short term, it will likely oscillate and wear people down; directional choices need new news to ignite.
Control your position size, and don't mistake expectations for results. Multiple negative factors hitting at once do not necessarily mean Bitcoin will plunge deeply.
The escalation of the Middle East situation has driven oil prices and US Treasury yields higher, causing BTC to quickly pull back, and the market has significantly raised the probability of a rate hike in September. Weak ADP data also failed to reverse the market's hawkish pricing, but trading markets often front-run pessimistic expectations.
Non-farm payrolls are the biggest variable this week; contract odds only represent current sentiment and cannot lock in the Fed's final decision. The 68,000‑75,000 range is just a pessimistic estimate, not necessarily the bottom range that will be reached. Geopolitical shocks are mostly short-term pulse fluctuations, and after the data is released, sentiment may actually recover. It is safer to stay on the sidelines and wait for clear signals.
Do you think the non-farm payrolls will trigger a new round of decline, or will the negative factors settle and lead to a rebound?
⚠️ Opinions are for communication only and do not constitute investment advice
$BTCGetting ready for the next move. 🚀
A September Fed hike looks increasingly unlikely, especially if tomorrow’s payrolls come in soft. That could strengthen the case for a rate cut before year-end.
For me, the CPI print matters less than the broader direction of monetary policy.
USD/JPY also looks stretched after its major move, with plenty of room for a potential pullback.
#SaudiCrude9YearLow #SECMarketModernization #LastNFPBeforeFOMC Summarizing Waller's speech, the core message is to weaken the expectation of a rate hike in September, but logically it depends on the inflation data from August, especially the PPI on September 10 and the CPI on September 11.
However, there is a problem here: the market currently does not have mainstream expected values for PPI and CPI, so on what basis does the market believe that August's inflation data can prevent a rate cut? Is there any foundation for this, or is it a desperate and reckless move?
Moreover, international crude oil prices have remained around $85-90 throughout August. In such a high oil price environment, it is actually difficult for inflation to ease significantly, and crude oil is very likely to trigger a secondary inflation, causing core PCE to also show sticky increases.
After Waller's speech, the expectation of a September rate hike was weakened, but bond yields still rebounded, which means gold and the dollar have started trading as if there will be no rate hike, and the market has not shown a one-sided view.
If tomorrow's employment data cannot provide a boost, all the optimism today might be a false hope, and with so much said by Walsh today, doesn't that contradict Walsh's own stance? #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Crypto rises, semiconductors fall policy drives both.
Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments reduced Fed hike odds from 63% to 60%, supporting BTC and major crypto.
Meanwhile, potential U.S. semiconductor tariffs pressured $SNDK , $MU , $xQCOM and the broader chip sector.
One night, two policy signals two very different market reactions.
#OKX #BTC #Crypto #Markets
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops Short sellers collectively got shaken out; this round I stepped into a consolidation trap.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw short positions liquidated up to 420 million, with many shorts like me expecting a pullback, directly swept out by a short-term rally.
From the data, BTC and ETH spot funds have significantly flowed back in short term; BTC net inflow exceeded 400 million in 24 hours, and ETH also saw nearly 90 million in buying. On a 7-day scale, funds are still flowing out. I originally judged this as just a rebound to lure longs, expecting the market to soon return to a downtrend, so I positioned short accordingly.
But the actual price action was far more frustrating than imagined. There was no deep correction; instead, the price slowly rose relying on continuous small buy orders, triggering stop losses for contract shorts repeatedly. Although the overall long-short ratio slightly favored longs without extreme bullish frenzy, the damage from a choppy market far exceeded that of a trending market.
Looking back now, the biggest mistake was using trend-based thinking to trade a consolidation. Clearly, there was no definite breakdown signal on the chart, yet I subjectively predicted a top and rushed to short, ultimately getting chopped back and forth. $ETH can only endure.AI intervention in crypto trading: How ordinary people can establish a relative advantage
Currently, a large number of AI trading agents participate in BTC and the crypto market. AI has natural advantages in data scanning, multi-asset monitoring, execution discipline, and 24/7 continuous market watching. However, AI has inherent shortcomings: it heavily relies on historical training data, and when facing entirely new narratives, black swan events, or market paradigm shifts, it may experience model fitting failures; it also lacks deep understanding of geopolitical, policy, and new market narratives, and is easily misled by false market signals.
We don’t need to compete with AI on speed or high-frequency computing; instead, we should leverage uniquely human advantages.
1. Recognize market paradigm shifts
AI requires a large number of candlestick samples to confirm market patterns. Humans can anticipate macro turning points and narrative rotations in advance, such as non-farm payrolls, policy news, and major product catalysts, capturing turning point opportunities before AI completes model adaptation.
2. Narrative and theme judgment
AI can only statistically analyze keyword popularity but struggles to deeply interpret emerging themes, community consensus, and the funding psychology behind events. The early stage of a new story is the main advantage window for humans.
3. Avoid AI-crowded tracks
Stay away from millisecond-level arbitrage and ultra-short contract scalping where AI dominates. We focus on swing trading, event-driven, and thematic trend trading to compete in a differentiated way.
4. Humans make decisions, AI serves as a tool (human-machine collaboration)
Humans set the overall direction, select trading themes, and define risk boundaries; AI handles data organization, signal filtering, and mechanical execution of take-profit and stop-loss. Humans retain final decision-making authority Recently, due to a significant pullback in the hardware sector since July, many friends heavily invested in this field have felt a poor holding experience and are filled with anxiety. In response to this sentiment, what I want to share with everyone is that looking ahead to the second half of the year, hardware will still be the most core narrative in the entire market. The reason for this judgment is that, in the current market, hardware is one of the few sectors supported by strong fundamentals.
Specifically, in the industry chain, whether chips can be successfully delivered ultimately depends on two key links: optics and packaging & testing. Entering the second half of the year, orders in the packaging & testing and optics fields will see large-scale volume increases. It is especially worth noting that the real demand in the optics field currently far exceeds the market's existing maximum supply level; even if the current capacity is tripled, further expansion is still needed.
The reason why the hardware sector's performance at this stage is unsatisfactory is merely due to short-term market expectation deviations. This phenomenon is very common in the stock market. Looking back at a previous period, whether it was gold, Bitcoin, or the software sector, they all experienced similar adjustment processes.
In the process of investing and trading stocks, the biggest challenge to gaining profits lies in how to fight against one's own emotions. Once impatience arises due to market conditions, rash decisions such as reckless opening of positions will definitely be made. It should be known that those who truly make money in the market are often not the smartest investors, but those who choose to hold on during the moments when persistence is most needed.Now is not the time to chase gains; it feels more like a game where both bulls and bears are struggling to survive. Have you ever had a moment when, even after judging the direction, the price seems to be deliberately working against you, slowly wearing down your patience? I stared at the screen, watching the $BTC and $ETH candlesticks climbing one by one, and the floating losses in my account fluctuated along with them. The most tormenting part of this market isn't a crash, but a frog-like reverse movement in warm water—you know using leverage to take positions is dangerous, but you always think "holding on a bit longer will break even." What is the market actually trading in this round of rebound? On the surface, it looks like a strong $SOL is driving the market, but deeper down, funds are betting on an expectation: if Friday's nonfarm payroll data is really weak, the Fed will have more reason to switch to dovish. Broadcom's better-than-expected earnings and Snowflake's upward guidance have warmed tech stocks, and this spillover of risk appetite naturally spills over into crypto assets. However, I must remind myself of one thing: Saudi crude oil exports have fallen to a nine-year low, and the inflation shadow caused by soaring oil prices has not been fully priced in by the market. If Friday's data is unexpectedly strong, or oil prices continue to push inflation expectations higher, these current long-chasing positions will become fuel for the next round of shakeouts. In terms of sector strength, it's clear that funds are flowing back from pure meme and AI concepts to fundamentally backed Layer 1s and infrastructure. $SOL's on-chain activity is indeed recovering, but its ecosystem tokens haven't kept pace, and this divergence usually means the market is still in the early stages of divergence.#Robinhood Chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up $ARB surged nearly 50% this week, $BTC is still hovering around 77,000, $ETH stuck at 2,390. Why? Robinhood Chain has started paying taxes to ARB.
Robinhood Chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, generating $13 million in fee revenue within two months of launch, with 10% of net revenue returned to the $ARB ecosystem per protocol. $ARB has its first cash flow from a single major client, transforming from a “governance token” into an “interest-bearing asset.”
$BTC is suppressed by macro factors, $ETH can’t keep up, $ARB enjoys a unique narrative premium. But 139 million tokens unlock on September 23, and gas subsidies expire in early October, so be cautious chasing the highs.👊
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Tomorrow night at 20:30, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report drops, and I’m watching this one very closely. The market is currently expecting roughly 60K new jobs. My personal estimate is closer to 30K–40K because recent labor-market signals have been losing momentum. If NFP confirms that weakness, volatility across BTC and altcoins could increase quickly. Here’s how I’m looking at the scenarios 👇 1️⃣ NFP BELOW 40K — MAJOR MISS This would be a serious warning that the labor market is cooling fastThe U.S. Department of Justice has this time investigated Hamas's $560,000 in crypto assets and also took over the fundraising website. The amount isn't large, but the signal is strong: Enforcement of crypto assets has become a routine operation at the national security level. Honestly, $560,000 might be just a drop in the bucket for terror financing, but what the DOJ and FBI want is the deterrent effect of "I can investigate, I can freeze." This is actually good news for public chains like BitcIt is now 12:45 AM, and $BTC Bitcoin is roughly around $80,800 to $81,000. Yesterday's surge from over $77,000 to $81,300 rose by about 4%, closing near $81,300.
Last night's rally was mainly driven by short liquidations. After the price dropped to around $76,900, leveraged short positions were liquidated en masse, creating a chain of buy orders that pushed the price all the way up. This was not a large influx of new funds, but more of a passive short squeeze.
The background is that after the big surge in August, the market has been oscillating between $76,000 and $80,000. In September, there are expectations of interest rate hikes and geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, so this move looks more like a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.The sharp surge on September 3rd where BTC hit 80,500 and ETH touched 2,494 is not a new bull run, but an overnight reaction of “dovish expectation repair + short squeeze forcing shorts to cover":
① Macro view is hot: Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations + Waller hinted "August inflation cooling means no rate hike in September," CME's September rate hike probability dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%, 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.818%, and risk assets collectively loosened.
② Shorts were squeezed: When BTC surged to 80,400, 24h short liquidations dominated (short covering strongly bought into the bullish candle), but the price retreated to 77,500 by the end of the day, a double kill for longs and shorts, with liquidations around 150–250 million USD.
③ ETF took over but did not ignite: BTC ETF net inflow was 3.5 billion in August, and on September 2nd a single-day positive inflow of 101 million (mainly IBIT), acting as support rather than a charge; Coinbase premium 7-day average remains negative, US spot real buying has not returned.
④ Resistance not broken: There is a supply wall of 1.05 million long-term holders between 83,000–86,000, three attempts to break 80,000 were all pushed back to 77,500, RSI daily is overbought at 70+.
In essence = a short-covering rebound triggered by marginal easing of rate hike panic, ETF provides support but US buying is weak. Failure to hold above 80,000 means a retest at 74,000–76,000; a real reversal depends on the triple test of Nonfarm Payrolls + CPI + 9/15 FOMC.Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings look pretty strong, Snowflake up 24%, Broadcom's AI revenue doubled, and yet $BTC and $ETH are like this?
$BTC is still hovering around 77,000-78,000, $ETH can't even hold 2,400, lying at 2,390. AI stocks are soaring like this, but crypto is like dead water, not following at all.
The market is basically not pricing in the AI narrative, but the macro issues. 68% chance of a rate hike before non-farm payrolls, US Treasury yield at 4.8%, Japanese government bonds breaking 3%, who still cares if Broadcom's guidance is high or not? Once liquidity tightens, all risk assets have to kneel. AI earnings at most support sentiment to prevent a sharp crash, pulling the market up? Don't even think about it. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
This news is really no good, positive news is done but prices don't move, it's digesting the negative. Wait for non-farm payrolls and CPI #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$OKB The float hasn't moved, don't rush to pull the rod yet
Today's bearish candle isn't just the crypto world scaring itself
$BTC hit a low of 76,300, closing between 77,300–77,600. $ETH retraced to 2,390–2,430. $SOL broke below the 100 psychological level, OKB slid from 111 to 106, dropping four to five points in a single day. The fear and greed index is still in the greed zone but has clearly cooled off a bit
The market situation boils down to one thing: the 79,000–80,000 resistance above can't be broken, and 76,000 below is temporarily supported. The structure isn't broken, but these past three days haven't provided evidence of a main upward wave
Don't just focus on the crypto market for the reason behind the drop. The US-Iran conflict flared up again, oil prices rose above 90, US Treasury yields climbed, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike has risen above 66%. Crypto assets don't pay interest, so when rate hike expectations rise, capital is the first to flee them
Institutions haven't fled; they're just repositioning. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 3.5 billion in August, with slight outflows in the first two days of September, while Solana ETFs actually attracted 100 million. This is profit-taking after a rise, not an exit
Next, focus on two points: whether 76,000 can hold; and Friday's non-farm payrolls.
The float hasn't moved, don't jump in prematurely
— Fisherman
September 3, 2026
The above is a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 A coin that calls itself "USELESS" surged 2.7 times in a month and even printed its logo on a La Liga giant's jersey
I've seen coins bragging about "disrupting the industry," but have you ever seen an official coin calling itself "I am useless"?
$USELESS, a meme on Solana, has been slacking since its launch: no staking, no governance, no utility, with just one slogan — "zero utility, zero purpose, 100% vibe."
In short, it's a coin specifically mocking those projects in the crypto space that "dare to hype everything."
So what happened? It became the most surreal one in this market wave:
1 Wore the giant's jersey
The limited edition jersey of La Liga's Atlético Madrid even has the USELESS Kraken logo on the sleeve patch, just because it won a community vote. A coin that calls itself useless ended up on the jersey of a top-five league giant — the irony is too strong.
2 Korean KOLs are promoting it
The Korean KOL community is pushing it, with daily trading volume tripling. Sentiment like this is hard to stop once it starts.
3 It also has a deflationary design
Total supply is 100 trillion, with 25% burned, relying on a "buy-to-burn" mechanism, so the more you buy, the less there is.
But to be honest: the crazier this coin rises, the more cautious you should be. On-chain data shows the top 10 wallets hold 30% of the supply, whales control nearly half — in other words, it's a game for big players. If you chase in today, you might just be the counterparty to their sell-off.Iran announced missile and drone attacks on the Ali Al Salem Air Base, a US military base in Kuwait. Kuwait's air defense system intercepted for the second consecutive night, and a US military-related residential area was also attacked by drones, causing a fire. This signals a new scope of conflict: previously focused on direct US-Iran confrontation, the retaliation network is now spreading to US military-hosting countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq. The risk is extending from a "war on Iranian soil" to the entire Gulf base system 😔
However, the market reaction is quite intriguing. Brent crude is around $95.2, WTI about $90.8, both slightly retreating intraday. The reason is that no new large-scale clashes between the US and Iran have been confirmed within hours, and Trump also hinted that this round of actions will not last long, so the geopolitical premium has somewhat receded.
Currently, there are two distinctly different paths: if Iran continues targeting US military bases, even affecting refineries, ports, and energy export facilities, the risk of oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase, and inflation and Federal Reserve pressure will continue to transmit to $BTC; if both sides limit strikes to military targets, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually recover, and risk aversion sentiment will cool down accordingly.
The current assessment is still preliminary. The US side reports no casualties so far, and specific damages are yet to be verified. The situation remains a highly uncertain window, price volatility may intensify, please manage risks cautiously. Divergence between funds and contract signals indicates a short-term market entering a game window
From the perspective of spot fund flows, BTC and ETH have seen large net inflows in the past 24 hours, with BTC net inflow at 404 million and ETH inflow close to 90 million, indicating short-term buying is entering the market. However, over a 7-day period, both major coins still show net fund outflows, suggesting that the current market is dominated by short-term fund games, and large-scale medium- to long-term capital has not yet returned.
An interesting divergence appears on the contract side: the overall network long-short ratio slightly favors longs, with longs accounting for 51.2%, showing a small gap between long and short forces. However, liquidation data sends an opposite signal: total liquidations in 24 hours reached 510 million, with short liquidations as high as 420 million, indicating a large number of shorts were wiped out in a short time.
Spot is buying, shorts are being liquidated, but longs have not formed an overwhelming advantage—this is a typical consolidation and shakeout pattern.
After short-term shorts exit, the market is more likely to enter a choppy tug-of-war. For longs to break upward, incremental funds need to continue increasing. If spot inflows cannot be sustained, the persistence of the rebound is questionable.
Currently, it is not suitable to chase the rally; focus on observing whether spot funds can continue to flow in and the volume situation at key price levels.
$BTC $ETH Latest ETH Analysis: Price and Funding Interpretation After the Fed Turns Dovish $BTC $ETH
⚠️ This article is for market information only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Core Macro Signal: The Fed’s “Swing Hawk” Suddenly Turns Dovish
Fed Governor Waller’s statement on September 3 became a key market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if the August inflation data continues to slow, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. This statement directly reduced the market’s probability of a September rate hike from 63% to 48.4%.
2. Waller, previously a hawkish official, was interpreted by the market as signaling that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is likely nearing its end. The US dollar index weakened accordingly, while gold, silver, and US tech stocks rose simultaneously.
3. The core impact of this signal on the crypto market is that funding pressure under a high interest rate environment is expected to marginally ease. ETH, as a highly elastic risk asset, is more sensitive to Fed policy than BTC.
Be cautious, cautious, and more cautious Bitcoin has reclaimed above 80,000, but this time it's different from previous rounds.
Let's look at the numbers first: current price 80,983, up nearly 5% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 76,950 to a high of 81,000, forming a textbook deep V pattern. Now the context: BTC rose 25% in August, crypto ETFs just recorded their best month this year, and tonight the US dollar weakened while the yen surged sharply, pushing BTC and gold correlation to a six-year high.
What does this indicate? This rally doesn't seem like a retail leveraged sentiment-driven move, but more like macro funds adding BTC to their "hard asset" basket. As US dollar credit loosens, gold and Bitcoin are bought together, with money reselecting store-of-value assets.
When the US dollar starts to lose trust, who do you think is the answer for the next decade? BTC's current round near 60,000 corresponds to 30,000 in 2022
and 6,000 in 2018, sharing the common feature of multiple rebounds after halving.
Ultimately, touching a decline around 0.4 looks more like the mid-stage of a bear market rather than the start of a bull market.
There are two possibilities for BTC next:
Either the rebound has ended and it will decline again,
or it will break through 83,000 and then have a final bull trap before topping out.
Many people shout bull market after a weekly breakout,
but I believe the bear market cycle has not disappeared but has been extended.
If the cycle is only extended and not changed,
then the so-called short-term "bull market" is very likely just a phase within the bear market continuation. In the $UNI order book, the heaviest long position right now isn't from signal callers, but from this address:
0x7583b5364597736a6a72c4ba61ede0a4a37ef4de
Holding a 10x long position of 400,000 UNI in the contract, with a position value of about $2.43 million and an unrealized loss of $111,700. The platform has directly tagged it with two labels: UNI's largest long position and UNI's largest long loss.
The unrealized loss itself isn't that scary, about 4.6%. What really carries information is the flow of funds — 11 receiving addresses, 9 sending addresses, and recent deposits are almost all of the same scale:
• 10-12: 493.64K USDC
• 10-11: 500.02K USDC
• 08-13: 480.80K USDC
• 07-21: 477.81K USDC
Entering in batches of the same magnitude indicates this entity isn't betting on a single candlestick but is extending the position and sustaining the viewpoint. With 10x leverage, an $111,700 unrealized loss is far from a liquidation narrative, so it now acts more like an "order book anchor": as long as this position remains, the UNI long side has a public, traceable, and sufficiently large reference point.
On-chain perpetuals differ from spot. Spot whales can stay silent, but contract whales' positions speak every day. What this position is saying now is simple — it hasn't closed #UNI yet.Trump's single remark causes oil prices to plummet, South Korea surges wildly: We need to understand the underlying liquidity thread
Trump's slight easing of rhetoric toward Iran caused oil prices to cool down a bit, and the South Korean stock market immediately surged impatiently to close higher.
Many people think the South Korean stock market's ups and downs have nothing to do with the crypto space, but this extremely sensitive rebound clearly reveals Asia's extreme hunger for macro liquidity.
South Korea relies almost 100% on crude oil imports; even a slight rise in oil prices puts significant pressure on the won exchange rate, directly cutting into corporate profits and consumer prices. When oil prices ease, pent-up risk capital immediately rushes out to seize the rebound. The same applies to the crypto market: recently, Bitcoin has been repeatedly volatile and altcoins have been bleeding daily. The fundamental macro constraint is that high oil prices block the path for inflation to fall. The retreat of oil prices essentially acts as an implicit rate cut on financing costs across the entire market.
But seasoned on-exchange traders would never treat a politician's empty talk as an anchor for a one-sided reversal.
Verbal easing of geopolitical tensions is extremely fragile; oil prices may fall today due to a single remark, but any slight friction tomorrow can cause a rebound. Before the non-farm payrolls and interest rate decisions are released, such pulse-like rebounds driven by geopolitical news often carry very high risks of a bull trap.
Understanding the true constraints crude oil imposes on liquidity, when facing such news-driven short-term volatility, are you using the rebound to deleverage and defend, or can you not resist chasing it?
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 The sharp rise is not a reversal bell, but a short squeeze tail flame. BTC from 64,000 to 79,000, ETH breaking 2400, with over 80% of long positions liquidated in 24h—a typical three-stage pattern of “short covering pump → retail chasing highs → long positions being washed out.” The drivers are the decline in long-term US Treasury yields + White House summit expectations + forced liquidation of June shorts; ETF net inflows are a relay, not ignition.
Entry is possible, but never chase the wick. True reversal is seen by three criteria: ① BTC retests 74,000–76,000, ETH retests 2300–2350 with volume contraction and stabilization; ② volume rebounds to ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days; ③ ETF net inflows for 3 consecutive days. Missing any one means a false breakout.
Daily RSI at 82 is overbought, whales are moving exchanges, chasing highs = taking the ticket of those who cut losses at 64,000 in reverse. Wait for a pullback to low longs, or a volume breakout above 80,000/2500 with right-side confirmation; anything in between is just itchy hands tax.$SPCX One of Elon Musk's nine crazy toys: Student days and Zip2
Observing Musk's academic trajectory, he early on divided the world into two systems: physics explains how everything works, economics explains how resources flow. As a teenager, he wrote Blastar, which seemed to reveal his way of thinking. He moved from South Africa to Canada, entered Queen's University, then transferred to the University of Pennsylvania. In 1995, he stayed only two days in Stanford's PhD program before turning to chase the internet wave. This doesn't prove he was born to win, but it shows a strong agency: rather than scoring high within established rules, he craved rewriting the rules. Zip2 created city guides, maps, and business directories for newspapers, essentially moving the bulky paper Yellow Pages online. In the early startup days, the brothers slept in the office and washed in public places; in 1999, Compaq still acquired Zip2 for about $307 million, with Musk receiving about $22 million. Psychologically, this success formed a strong positive reinforcement, proving to him that as long as you bet on a technological turning point, what others see as madness can turn into huge rewards. From then on, money was not an end in life for him, but more like new gear obtained after clearing a level. Zip2 also established the entrepreneurial script he repeatedly used later: find a sluggish old system, digitize it, reduce costs, then prove with the market that things don't have to be so difficult. This experience may also have become the psychological starting point for his later cross-industry ventures. The boy's first big toy was not a rocket, but an information map of an entire city. Getting ready to rock n' roll.
Almost zero chance Fed hikes in Sept.
Soft payrolls tomorrow and we see cut before yr end.
Cpi at 2 or 3 irrelevant.
Usd/yen move epic top with long way to drop.
US short rates lower support btc break up.
85k break gets us to 100k pronto.$KO $xKO Looking back at history, during World War II, Coca-Cola was incorporated into the U.S. military logistics system, becoming a special supply to boost the morale of frontline soldiers. The military regarded it as a supply to maintain soldiers' mental state; wherever the army advanced, bottling plants were set up there. War orders helped Coca-Cola complete its early global expansion and deeply tied it to American domestic cultural symbols.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday #EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance #Robinhood chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up
Applying this to current market trading logic:
Once geopolitical conflicts or overseas military deployments occur, theoretically, there are two potential benefits:
1. Increased military logistics demand: U.S. military overseas deployments bring procurement needs for beverage supplies, opening some incremental orders;
2. Risk-averse capital preference: During turbulent situations, capital flees from high-volatility growth stocks and flows into high-dividend, essential consumer blue chips. Coca-Cola, with its strong pricing power, stable cash flow, and continuous dividends, becomes a preferred allocation choice for risk-averse capital. #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Tonight's sentiment is fomo! This rally in crypto and stocks is basically betting that the Fed will back down?
Nothing mysterious, the core is just one thing: the market thinks the Fed won't dare to raise rates in September.
Last night's initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, showing a clearly softer labor market, plus Fed Governor Waller came out dovish, saying he supports pausing rate hikes if inflation drops. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike dropped directly from 63% to around 50%. These institutional traders are betting on a shift in monetary policy and improved liquidity expectations, so they rush in first.
Look, BTC broke through 80,000 directly, ETH followed, and related stocks like Coinbase and Strategy collectively surged. Essentially, it's the same old story—macro eases a bit, risk assets get hyped.
But I have to remind you, this is a game of expectations, not a fundamental reversal.
The real test is the September 15th FOMC meeting; if inflation data doesn't cooperate then, whatever went up will come down $BTC Just now, all AI systems crashed simultaneously! There was a large amount of discussion on X about AI service outages. The real cause could be a technical failure, but this incident raises another question: If one day, AI is no longer just a tool for answering questions but becomes a digital agent capable of taking on tasks, allocating resources, purchasing services, delivering results, and managing assets, what currency would they use? This relates to a change even bigger than the AI models themselves: the Agent economy. If the Agent economy scales up, cryptocurrencies will gain a new use case. In this system, Bitcoin can serve as a store of value, while Ethereum and other programmable blockchains can serve as the infrastructure for settlement, contracts, and collaboration. This is not the simple logic of "AI develops, coin prices rise." It discusses another matter: when economic participants on the internet expand from "humans" to "machines," is the existing monetary system suitable for transactions between machines? 1. The next stage of AI: from answering questions to completing transactions The AI we are familiar with still follows the core pattern of "humans issue commands, AI completes tasks." You ask a question, it provides an answer. You request a proposal, it generates one. You ask to modify code, it modifies the code. The change brought by Agents lies in the complete action chain. After receiving a goal, an Agent can break down tasks, call tools, find services, mobilize other Agents, deliver results, and alsoBTC narrative iteration🔥The argument continues to strengthen: Bitcoin is no longer just "digital gold"
From Reuters Market Perspective: The investment logic of Bitcoin is undergoing a qualitative change and is no longer limited to the single narrative of "digital gold."
As traditional banks and mainstream investment platforms continue to open compliant access channels for BTC, Bitcoin is gradually being integrated into the traditional financial system, transforming from a marginal alternative asset into one of the institutional asset allocation options.
A very meaningful point: Bitcoin itself has not changed the rules; rather, Wall Street is actively adapting to Bitcoin⚡.
It is not crypto projects conforming to the old financial system's rules; instead, ETFs, brokerages, and asset management institutions are continuously remodeling their products and processes to accommodate this set of native on-chain assets. Institutional funds are entering through spot ETFs, and traditional financial advisors are beginning to include BTC in client portfolios—this is a structural change.
Of course, the grand narrative must face the immediate macro test.
Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the most important employment report before the FOMC decision (#LastNFPBeforeFOMC).
Even if the long-term logic continues to strengthen, short-term market trends will still be influenced by employment, wages, and rate cut expectations. The strength or weakness of the Nonfarm data will directly disturb the US dollar and US Treasury yields, causing significant volatility for BTC.
A positive long-term narrative ≠ a short-term one-way rise. Institutional acceptance represents the opening of long-term space, but trading still cannot ignore macro data risks and must maintain proper position management. A Word Carries Great Weight
Waller spoke tonight, and I felt like I heard the "real Fed Chair" speaking.
Key points:
· In the past few months, signs of inflation decline have been seen, consistent with the model's prediction that inflation would peak in summer.
· Giving inflation a chance is not inaction, but "taking responsibility."
· AI improves productivity and output, not inflation.
· The market needs communication, and I believe the right communication is to transparently tell the market the Fed's model framework based on "economic logic"—there's nothing to hide.
· The Fed has a clear view of the current economic data; we are the "model student." We do not misunderstand the data; we fully understand its meaning.
Well, Waller's speech made us feel the "familiar flavor" is back—pragmatic, not mysterious, reflecting economic data truthfully, no need to guess riddles from the Fed.
US Treasury yields plunged, the 10-year dropped from 4.78% to 4.72%, gold broke above 4520, and US stocks rose more than 1%.
In plain terms, assets are broadly rising.
Tonight marks an important turning point; market expectations for rate hikes are starting to retreat. The most dangerous moment is over. For US Treasuries and tech stocks, it's time to wait for gains and enjoy the profits.
Recently, many companies in the US software sector have hit new highs. Tonight, SNOW rose 20 centimeters. The software ETF (IGV) we analyzed before, or Microsoft, which has good monetization, are worth continued attention.
Bitcoin's recent altcoin rally has started; Hood and MSTR are also rising. This is a very good sign of the early bull market. Friends who haven't paid attention can start watching for right-side opportunities.
Tomorrow's big nonfarm payrolls report is not highly anticipated because Waller said tonight the average is 60,000 and won't drop sharply. He probably saw the data in advance; last time he also leaked hints before the PCE.
So the next important data should be next week's CPI. I expect the downward trend to continue, firmly closing the door on a September rate hike.
Wishing everyone plenty of profits!
The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice. Please be aware of risks.Violently reclaiming 80,000! $BTC surged 4% overnight—is this a rebound recovery or the start of a new rally?
The crypto market, silent for days, suddenly exploded.
$BTC surged over 4% in a single day, firmly holding above the 80,000 USD mark; $ETH followed suit, briefly hitting 2,484 USD, with the entire market showing green.
Bullish sentiment was instantly ignited, and voices of "bull market restart" and "aiming for new highs" flooded the scene again.
But the bigger the bullish candle, the more we need to stay calm: is this rise a recovery rebound after overselling, or the beginning of a new main upward wave?
1. This surge is not just random speculation by funds
This rally is not driven by random in-market funds pumping prices; the core driver is a shift in macro expectations.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller recently released dovish signals, directly cooling the market’s ongoing rate hike panic.
Previously, the market was overshadowed by repeated inflation concerns, with investors generally fearing the Fed would maintain high interest rates or even restart hikes, causing a strong dollar and high US Treasury yields that suppressed risk assets.
With this dovish signal, the dollar index and US Treasury yields both plunged, effectively opening a short-term recovery window for global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Simply put: easing rate hike expectations encouraged funds to enter the market.
2. The 80,000 mark hides the truest market battle
The 80,000 USD level has never been just a number.
Recently, the market has repeatedly tugged and pulled around this range, surging and retreating multiple times—essentially a large-scale shakeout:
• Short-term traders with weak positions repeatedly stop out and surrender chips amid volatility
• Long-term holders endure the frustrating fluctuations and finally await the rally.
When the price truly stands above 80,000, another force accelerates entry—those who missed out earlier see the rally take off, anxiety rises, and they chase the price, further fueling the rebound’s momentum.
But we must be clear: 80,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, not the final stop for the rise.
Above this level, a large amount of previously trapped positions still accumulate. The chase driven by FOMO is often fierce but questionable in sustainability. Any slight disturbance could cause a pullback and renewed volatility.
3. Don’t call the bull market just because of one big bullish candle
Every time a big bullish candle appears, the comment sections instantly fill with "bull market start" and "aiming for 100,000".
But the harsh truth of trading is: no bull market has ever started from a single official speech or one big bullish candle.
A shift in macro expectations is a long process, not defined by one statement. Today can be dovish, tomorrow hawkish; today can rise 4%, tomorrow can fall back.
Underlying market constraints remain: Middle East geopolitical risks are still brewing, inflation stickiness hasn’t disappeared, and the Fed’s policy shift is far from confirmed.
It’s too early to declare a "new bull market start" now.
More likely: a short-term recovery window has opened, but volatility and fluctuations remain the norm.
4. The safest current strategy
Facing this rebound, avoid two extremes:
❌ Blindly bearish, fighting the trend and trying to top-pick;
❌ Getting overheated, going all-in, mistaking the rebound for a bull market.
The only correct approach: follow the trend and prioritize risk control.
• Acknowledge the short-term upward trend and participate in the recovery accordingly, but never chase higher or add positions recklessly;
• Always set stop losses for every trade, control position size, and never bet all chips on a single move;
• Near the dense trapped position zone above, take profits in batches, don’t be greedy for the last leg of the rise;
• If the price falls back below key support, exit decisively without stubbornly holding or fighting.
Simply put: respect the current rebound and be wary of reversal risks.
Final thoughts
The most common time to lose money in trading is never during a decline, but during a big rally.
People are cautious when prices fall but greedy when prices soar, often ignoring risks and mistaking rebounds for reversals and recoveries for bull markets.
BTC returning to 80,000 is good—it opens space for short-term recovery.
But it’s not the end, nor a guarantee of a bull market.
Markets always rise hesitantly and end in euphoria.
The hotter the market, the more you must keep your own pace and control your position size.
After all, in this market, survival is always more important than making quick money.
Do you think this wave is a rebound recovery or a bull market start? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Institutions are not buying crypto; they are picking Bitcoin
ETF turned green again, but don't rush to write "faith is back." First, look at the three columns beside it: ETH, SOL, XRP, which were flowing out that day. Institutions are not buying crypto. They are picking Bitcoin
Eastern US September 1: Spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about 236.5 million, the largest single-day sell-off since late July. Eastern US September 2: Reversed to a net inflow of about 101.15 million (common secondary market summary: IBIT about +115.45 million, GBTC about -56.21 million). The green and red flip in one day is more honest than slogans.
More glaring contrast on the same day: Spot ETFs tracking Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all showed net outflows in public reports. The XRP side had a clear outflow of about 7.2 million. So this is not "digital assets being favored together," but "cash returning first to the BTC shelf."
August BTC ETF absorbed about 3.52 billion, the strongest single month in 2026. September started like a whip: first a large outflow, then a small inflow, still not back to the August daily average of about 160 million. The price hovered around 76,000–78,000 (as of September 2–3 secondary market). Don't mistake a single green day for a trend revival.
Category selection ≠ narrative recovery $BTC $BTC surged past $81K, with about $445M liquidated across the network in 24 hours, predominantly shorts. The market shifted from high-level consolidation to an accelerated phase dominated by short squeezes. 1. $BTC rose about 5.3% in 24 hours, breaking above the $81K mark and hitting a new high in this rebound; however, the 7-day increase is only 1.1%, indicating this is a one-time release after narrow consolidation rather than a trend acceleration. 2. Approximately $445M was liquidated network-wide in 24 hours, including $196M in $BTC liquidations, with shorts accounting for $184M (about 94%). Hyperliquid saw about $42M in single-session short liquidations. This rally's fuel is short covering rather than new spot buying, with on-chain and exchange data aligned. 3. OKX / $OKB: Today +2.7%, price around $109.8, 24-hour range $102–$111.7, volume about $30.5M. 4. Polymarket officially launched perpetual contracts covering crypto, stocks, and commodities, with up to 20x leverage; the prediction market platform is entering the derivatives space, expanding on-chain trading scenarios into traditional categories. 5. Metaplanet increased holdings by 1,007 $BTC, reserves surpassing 20,000 BTC, and Capital B is also planning to add 376 BTC during financing; treasury companies remain active above $80KWant to go long, wasn't the plot already spoiled in advance? Why insist on being the fuel?
This round of rise was already mentioned last night, going long, Bitcoin pre-set wave at 765 targeting 810, which has been fully realized, a full 4500 points, Ethereum at 2375 targeting 2510-60, currently the high point is 2519, also over a hundred points.
Then, this morning gave a long strategy again, adjusted the target to 810 in the afternoon in time, and kindly reminded not to stubbornly short today, or else be ready to be liquidated.
The words have been made very clear, the direction is also clear, look for yourself, how many times have the tips been given? If you just listen once, you wouldn't be among those liquidated.
Small losses are not scary, what’s scary is that you keep holding on stubbornly, and eventually your account is gone. If Wukong can give you a glimmer of hope, would you reach out for help?"The crypto market has seen a strong rally, with $BTC climbing from a low of $76,957 to $81,367, a 24-hour increase of 4.70%; $ETH also rebounded strongly from around $2,360 to above $2,510, surging over 5% simultaneously. The rapid rebound after hitting a high resistance level demonstrates the resilience of the bulls.
The core catalyst for this round of market movement comes from the macro level. The latest US initial jobless claims increased more than expected, signaling a cooling labor market; Federal Reserve Governor Waller subsequently stated that if inflation cools in August, it would support keeping interest rates unchanged. As a result, the market's bet on a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63.2% to 50.4%. Meanwhile, the US-Iran military conflict continues to escalate, pushing geopolitical risk premiums higher. Expectations of looser monetary policy combined with safe-haven demand have driven Bitcoin back above the $80,000 mark after several days.
Looking ahead, several key variables need attention. Technically, the $81,000-$82,000 range has repeatedly been a resistance zone for BTC, while ETH faces strong resistance around $2,560-$2,630. The short-term RSI has entered the overbought area, indicating a need for a pullback to digest gains. In terms of liquidity, the current order book depth is very shallow, meaning that any new catalyst could significantly amplify price volatility. The key support level for BTC is at $78,000, while ETH's short-term bull lifeline lies around $2,350-$2,360.
The market will next focus on the US August CPI data to be released on September 11—if inflation exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations may return; if the data is moderate, the rebound trend is likely to continue. The core of the bulls vs. bears battle remains the tug-of-war between macro policy expectations and market liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 I now lean more toward the view that the Fed may not continue raising rates in September. The next key variable is U.S. employment data. If nonfarm payrolls cool significantly on Friday, the market may re-bet on rate cuts before year-end, and short-term U.S. Treasury yields may come under pressure. Meanwhile, inflation figures themselves may not be the only focus. Compared to a single CPI data, the market is more concerned about: 👉 Will the Fed shift to a more accommodative policy in the coming months? 👉 Will short-term U.S. interest rates continue to decline? 👉 Has the dollar entered a phase of weakness? The foreign exchange market is also worth watching. USD/JPY has recently fallen rapidly, the yen has shown a clear rebound, and market expectations for further tightening by the Bank of Japan are also rising. If U.S. short-term interest rates continue to fall and dollar pressure increases, risk assets may find new liquidity support. 🔥 Key BTC positions: $78K → $82K: Short-term breakout range $85K → $90K: Next phase target 🚀 If $90K is effectively broken, the market may further challenge $98K–$105K Of course, if the nonfarm payroll far exceeds expectations and pushes rate hike expectations higher, BTC could also be suppressed again. The real focus now is not just whether CPI is 2% or 3%, but when will liquidity shift again? #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Fed #NFP #FOMC #USDJPY #Ra