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The sharp surge on September 3rd where BTC hit 80,500 and ETH touched 2,494 is not a new bull run, but an overnight reaction of “dovish expectation repair + short squeeze forcing shorts to cover":
① Macro view is hot: Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations + Waller hinted "August inflation cooling means no rate hike in September," CME's September rate hike probability dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%, 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.818%, and risk assets collectively loosened.
② Shorts were squeezed: When BTC surged to 80,400, 24h short liquidations dominated (short covering strongly bought into the bullish candle), but the price retreated to 77,500 by the end of the day, a double kill for longs and shorts, with liquidations around 150–250 million USD.
③ ETF took over but did not ignite: BTC ETF net inflow was 3.5 billion in August, and on September 2nd a single-day positive inflow of 101 million (mainly IBIT), acting as support rather than a charge; Coinbase premium 7-day average remains negative, US spot real buying has not returned.
④ Resistance not broken: There is a supply wall of 1.05 million long-term holders between 83,000–86,000, three attempts to break 80,000 were all pushed back to 77,500, RSI daily is overbought at 70+.
In essence = a short-covering rebound triggered by marginal easing of rate hike panic, ETF provides support but US buying is weak. Failure to hold above 80,000 means a retest at 74,000–76,000; a real reversal depends on the triple test of Nonfarm Payrolls + CPI + 9/15 FOMC.Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings look pretty strong, Snowflake up 24%, Broadcom's AI revenue doubled, and yet $BTC and $ETH are like this?
$BTC is still hovering around 77,000-78,000, $ETH can't even hold 2,400, lying at 2,390. AI stocks are soaring like this, but crypto is like dead water, not following at all.
The market is basically not pricing in the AI narrative, but the macro issues. 68% chance of a rate hike before non-farm payrolls, US Treasury yield at 4.8%, Japanese government bonds breaking 3%, who still cares if Broadcom's guidance is high or not? Once liquidity tightens, all risk assets have to kneel. AI earnings at most support sentiment to prevent a sharp crash, pulling the market up? Don't even think about it. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
This news is really no good, positive news is done but prices don't move, it's digesting the negative. Wait for non-farm payrolls and CPI #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$OKB The float hasn't moved, don't rush to pull the rod yet
Today's bearish candle isn't just the crypto world scaring itself
$BTC hit a low of 76,300, closing between 77,300–77,600. $ETH retraced to 2,390–2,430. $SOL broke below the 100 psychological level, OKB slid from 111 to 106, dropping four to five points in a single day. The fear and greed index is still in the greed zone but has clearly cooled off a bit
The market situation boils down to one thing: the 79,000–80,000 resistance above can't be broken, and 76,000 below is temporarily supported. The structure isn't broken, but these past three days haven't provided evidence of a main upward wave
Don't just focus on the crypto market for the reason behind the drop. The US-Iran conflict flared up again, oil prices rose above 90, US Treasury yields climbed, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike has risen above 66%. Crypto assets don't pay interest, so when rate hike expectations rise, capital is the first to flee them
Institutions haven't fled; they're just repositioning. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 3.5 billion in August, with slight outflows in the first two days of September, while Solana ETFs actually attracted 100 million. This is profit-taking after a rise, not an exit
Next, focus on two points: whether 76,000 can hold; and Friday's non-farm payrolls.
The float hasn't moved, don't jump in prematurely
— Fisherman
September 3, 2026
The above is a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 A coin that calls itself "USELESS" surged 2.7 times in a month and even printed its logo on a La Liga giant's jersey
I've seen coins bragging about "disrupting the industry," but have you ever seen an official coin calling itself "I am useless"?
$USELESS, a meme on Solana, has been slacking since its launch: no staking, no governance, no utility, with just one slogan — "zero utility, zero purpose, 100% vibe."
In short, it's a coin specifically mocking those projects in the crypto space that "dare to hype everything."
So what happened? It became the most surreal one in this market wave:
1 Wore the giant's jersey
The limited edition jersey of La Liga's Atlético Madrid even has the USELESS Kraken logo on the sleeve patch, just because it won a community vote. A coin that calls itself useless ended up on the jersey of a top-five league giant — the irony is too strong.
2 Korean KOLs are promoting it
The Korean KOL community is pushing it, with daily trading volume tripling. Sentiment like this is hard to stop once it starts.
3 It also has a deflationary design
Total supply is 100 trillion, with 25% burned, relying on a "buy-to-burn" mechanism, so the more you buy, the less there is.
But to be honest: the crazier this coin rises, the more cautious you should be. On-chain data shows the top 10 wallets hold 30% of the supply, whales control nearly half — in other words, it's a game for big players. If you chase in today, you might just be the counterparty to their sell-off.Iran announced missile and drone attacks on the Ali Al Salem Air Base, a US military base in Kuwait. Kuwait's air defense system intercepted for the second consecutive night, and a US military-related residential area was also attacked by drones, causing a fire. This signals a new scope of conflict: previously focused on direct US-Iran confrontation, the retaliation network is now spreading to US military-hosting countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq. The risk is extending from a "war on Iranian soil" to the entire Gulf base system 😔
However, the market reaction is quite intriguing. Brent crude is around $95.2, WTI about $90.8, both slightly retreating intraday. The reason is that no new large-scale clashes between the US and Iran have been confirmed within hours, and Trump also hinted that this round of actions will not last long, so the geopolitical premium has somewhat receded.
Currently, there are two distinctly different paths: if Iran continues targeting US military bases, even affecting refineries, ports, and energy export facilities, the risk of oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase, and inflation and Federal Reserve pressure will continue to transmit to $BTC; if both sides limit strikes to military targets, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually recover, and risk aversion sentiment will cool down accordingly.
The current assessment is still preliminary. The US side reports no casualties so far, and specific damages are yet to be verified. The situation remains a highly uncertain window, price volatility may intensify, please manage risks cautiously. Divergence between funds and contract signals indicates a short-term market entering a game window
From the perspective of spot fund flows, BTC and ETH have seen large net inflows in the past 24 hours, with BTC net inflow at 404 million and ETH inflow close to 90 million, indicating short-term buying is entering the market. However, over a 7-day period, both major coins still show net fund outflows, suggesting that the current market is dominated by short-term fund games, and large-scale medium- to long-term capital has not yet returned.
An interesting divergence appears on the contract side: the overall network long-short ratio slightly favors longs, with longs accounting for 51.2%, showing a small gap between long and short forces. However, liquidation data sends an opposite signal: total liquidations in 24 hours reached 510 million, with short liquidations as high as 420 million, indicating a large number of shorts were wiped out in a short time.
Spot is buying, shorts are being liquidated, but longs have not formed an overwhelming advantage—this is a typical consolidation and shakeout pattern.
After short-term shorts exit, the market is more likely to enter a choppy tug-of-war. For longs to break upward, incremental funds need to continue increasing. If spot inflows cannot be sustained, the persistence of the rebound is questionable.
Currently, it is not suitable to chase the rally; focus on observing whether spot funds can continue to flow in and the volume situation at key price levels.
$BTC $ETH Latest ETH Analysis: Price and Funding Interpretation After the Fed Turns Dovish $BTC $ETH
⚠️ This article is for market information only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Core Macro Signal: The Fed’s “Swing Hawk” Suddenly Turns Dovish
Fed Governor Waller’s statement on September 3 became a key market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if the August inflation data continues to slow, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. This statement directly reduced the market’s probability of a September rate hike from 63% to 48.4%.
2. Waller, previously a hawkish official, was interpreted by the market as signaling that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is likely nearing its end. The US dollar index weakened accordingly, while gold, silver, and US tech stocks rose simultaneously.
3. The core impact of this signal on the crypto market is that funding pressure under a high interest rate environment is expected to marginally ease. ETH, as a highly elastic risk asset, is more sensitive to Fed policy than BTC.
Be cautious, cautious, and more cautious Bitcoin has reclaimed above 80,000, but this time it's different from previous rounds.
Let's look at the numbers first: current price 80,983, up nearly 5% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 76,950 to a high of 81,000, forming a textbook deep V pattern. Now the context: BTC rose 25% in August, crypto ETFs just recorded their best month this year, and tonight the US dollar weakened while the yen surged sharply, pushing BTC and gold correlation to a six-year high.
What does this indicate? This rally doesn't seem like a retail leveraged sentiment-driven move, but more like macro funds adding BTC to their "hard asset" basket. As US dollar credit loosens, gold and Bitcoin are bought together, with money reselecting store-of-value assets.
When the US dollar starts to lose trust, who do you think is the answer for the next decade? BTC's current round near 60,000 corresponds to 30,000 in 2022
and 6,000 in 2018, sharing the common feature of multiple rebounds after halving.
Ultimately, touching a decline around 0.4 looks more like the mid-stage of a bear market rather than the start of a bull market.
There are two possibilities for BTC next:
Either the rebound has ended and it will decline again,
or it will break through 83,000 and then have a final bull trap before topping out.
Many people shout bull market after a weekly breakout,
but I believe the bear market cycle has not disappeared but has been extended.
If the cycle is only extended and not changed,
then the so-called short-term "bull market" is very likely just a phase within the bear market continuation. In the $UNI order book, the heaviest long position right now isn't from signal callers, but from this address:
0x7583b5364597736a6a72c4ba61ede0a4a37ef4de
Holding a 10x long position of 400,000 UNI in the contract, with a position value of about $2.43 million and an unrealized loss of $111,700. The platform has directly tagged it with two labels: UNI's largest long position and UNI's largest long loss.
The unrealized loss itself isn't that scary, about 4.6%. What really carries information is the flow of funds — 11 receiving addresses, 9 sending addresses, and recent deposits are almost all of the same scale:
• 10-12: 493.64K USDC
• 10-11: 500.02K USDC
• 08-13: 480.80K USDC
• 07-21: 477.81K USDC
Entering in batches of the same magnitude indicates this entity isn't betting on a single candlestick but is extending the position and sustaining the viewpoint. With 10x leverage, an $111,700 unrealized loss is far from a liquidation narrative, so it now acts more like an "order book anchor": as long as this position remains, the UNI long side has a public, traceable, and sufficiently large reference point.
On-chain perpetuals differ from spot. Spot whales can stay silent, but contract whales' positions speak every day. What this position is saying now is simple — it hasn't closed #UNI yet.Trump's single remark causes oil prices to plummet, South Korea surges wildly: We need to understand the underlying liquidity thread
Trump's slight easing of rhetoric toward Iran caused oil prices to cool down a bit, and the South Korean stock market immediately surged impatiently to close higher.
Many people think the South Korean stock market's ups and downs have nothing to do with the crypto space, but this extremely sensitive rebound clearly reveals Asia's extreme hunger for macro liquidity.
South Korea relies almost 100% on crude oil imports; even a slight rise in oil prices puts significant pressure on the won exchange rate, directly cutting into corporate profits and consumer prices. When oil prices ease, pent-up risk capital immediately rushes out to seize the rebound. The same applies to the crypto market: recently, Bitcoin has been repeatedly volatile and altcoins have been bleeding daily. The fundamental macro constraint is that high oil prices block the path for inflation to fall. The retreat of oil prices essentially acts as an implicit rate cut on financing costs across the entire market.
But seasoned on-exchange traders would never treat a politician's empty talk as an anchor for a one-sided reversal.
Verbal easing of geopolitical tensions is extremely fragile; oil prices may fall today due to a single remark, but any slight friction tomorrow can cause a rebound. Before the non-farm payrolls and interest rate decisions are released, such pulse-like rebounds driven by geopolitical news often carry very high risks of a bull trap.
Understanding the true constraints crude oil imposes on liquidity, when facing such news-driven short-term volatility, are you using the rebound to deleverage and defend, or can you not resist chasing it?
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 The sharp rise is not a reversal bell, but a short squeeze tail flame. BTC from 64,000 to 79,000, ETH breaking 2400, with over 80% of long positions liquidated in 24h—a typical three-stage pattern of “short covering pump → retail chasing highs → long positions being washed out.” The drivers are the decline in long-term US Treasury yields + White House summit expectations + forced liquidation of June shorts; ETF net inflows are a relay, not ignition.
Entry is possible, but never chase the wick. True reversal is seen by three criteria: ① BTC retests 74,000–76,000, ETH retests 2300–2350 with volume contraction and stabilization; ② volume rebounds to ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days; ③ ETF net inflows for 3 consecutive days. Missing any one means a false breakout.
Daily RSI at 82 is overbought, whales are moving exchanges, chasing highs = taking the ticket of those who cut losses at 64,000 in reverse. Wait for a pullback to low longs, or a volume breakout above 80,000/2500 with right-side confirmation; anything in between is just itchy hands tax.$SPCX One of Elon Musk's nine crazy toys: Student days and Zip2
Observing Musk's academic trajectory, he early on divided the world into two systems: physics explains how everything works, economics explains how resources flow. As a teenager, he wrote Blastar, which seemed to reveal his way of thinking. He moved from South Africa to Canada, entered Queen's University, then transferred to the University of Pennsylvania. In 1995, he stayed only two days in Stanford's PhD program before turning to chase the internet wave. This doesn't prove he was born to win, but it shows a strong agency: rather than scoring high within established rules, he craved rewriting the rules. Zip2 created city guides, maps, and business directories for newspapers, essentially moving the bulky paper Yellow Pages online. In the early startup days, the brothers slept in the office and washed in public places; in 1999, Compaq still acquired Zip2 for about $307 million, with Musk receiving about $22 million. Psychologically, this success formed a strong positive reinforcement, proving to him that as long as you bet on a technological turning point, what others see as madness can turn into huge rewards. From then on, money was not an end in life for him, but more like new gear obtained after clearing a level. Zip2 also established the entrepreneurial script he repeatedly used later: find a sluggish old system, digitize it, reduce costs, then prove with the market that things don't have to be so difficult. This experience may also have become the psychological starting point for his later cross-industry ventures. The boy's first big toy was not a rocket, but an information map of an entire city. Getting ready to rock n' roll.
Almost zero chance Fed hikes in Sept.
Soft payrolls tomorrow and we see cut before yr end.
Cpi at 2 or 3 irrelevant.
Usd/yen move epic top with long way to drop.
US short rates lower support btc break up.
85k break gets us to 100k pronto.$KO $xKO Looking back at history, during World War II, Coca-Cola was incorporated into the U.S. military logistics system, becoming a special supply to boost the morale of frontline soldiers. The military regarded it as a supply to maintain soldiers' mental state; wherever the army advanced, bottling plants were set up there. War orders helped Coca-Cola complete its early global expansion and deeply tied it to American domestic cultural symbols.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday #EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance #Robinhood chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up
Applying this to current market trading logic:
Once geopolitical conflicts or overseas military deployments occur, theoretically, there are two potential benefits:
1. Increased military logistics demand: U.S. military overseas deployments bring procurement needs for beverage supplies, opening some incremental orders;
2. Risk-averse capital preference: During turbulent situations, capital flees from high-volatility growth stocks and flows into high-dividend, essential consumer blue chips. Coca-Cola, with its strong pricing power, stable cash flow, and continuous dividends, becomes a preferred allocation choice for risk-averse capital. #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Tonight's sentiment is fomo! This rally in crypto and stocks is basically betting that the Fed will back down?
Nothing mysterious, the core is just one thing: the market thinks the Fed won't dare to raise rates in September.
Last night's initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, showing a clearly softer labor market, plus Fed Governor Waller came out dovish, saying he supports pausing rate hikes if inflation drops. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike dropped directly from 63% to around 50%. These institutional traders are betting on a shift in monetary policy and improved liquidity expectations, so they rush in first.
Look, BTC broke through 80,000 directly, ETH followed, and related stocks like Coinbase and Strategy collectively surged. Essentially, it's the same old story—macro eases a bit, risk assets get hyped.
But I have to remind you, this is a game of expectations, not a fundamental reversal.
The real test is the September 15th FOMC meeting; if inflation data doesn't cooperate then, whatever went up will come down $BTC Just now, all AI systems crashed simultaneously! There was a large amount of discussion on X about AI service outages. The real cause could be a technical failure, but this incident raises another question: If one day, AI is no longer just a tool for answering questions but becomes a digital agent capable of taking on tasks, allocating resources, purchasing services, delivering results, and managing assets, what currency would they use? This relates to a change even bigger than the AI models themselves: the Agent economy. If the Agent economy scales up, cryptocurrencies will gain a new use case. In this system, Bitcoin can serve as a store of value, while Ethereum and other programmable blockchains can serve as the infrastructure for settlement, contracts, and collaboration. This is not the simple logic of "AI develops, coin prices rise." It discusses another matter: when economic participants on the internet expand from "humans" to "machines," is the existing monetary system suitable for transactions between machines? 1. The next stage of AI: from answering questions to completing transactions The AI we are familiar with still follows the core pattern of "humans issue commands, AI completes tasks." You ask a question, it provides an answer. You request a proposal, it generates one. You ask to modify code, it modifies the code. The change brought by Agents lies in the complete action chain. After receiving a goal, an Agent can break down tasks, call tools, find services, mobilize other Agents, deliver results, and alsoBTC narrative iteration🔥The argument continues to strengthen: Bitcoin is no longer just "digital gold"
From Reuters Market Perspective: The investment logic of Bitcoin is undergoing a qualitative change and is no longer limited to the single narrative of "digital gold."
As traditional banks and mainstream investment platforms continue to open compliant access channels for BTC, Bitcoin is gradually being integrated into the traditional financial system, transforming from a marginal alternative asset into one of the institutional asset allocation options.
A very meaningful point: Bitcoin itself has not changed the rules; rather, Wall Street is actively adapting to Bitcoin⚡.
It is not crypto projects conforming to the old financial system's rules; instead, ETFs, brokerages, and asset management institutions are continuously remodeling their products and processes to accommodate this set of native on-chain assets. Institutional funds are entering through spot ETFs, and traditional financial advisors are beginning to include BTC in client portfolios—this is a structural change.
Of course, the grand narrative must face the immediate macro test.
Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the most important employment report before the FOMC decision (#LastNFPBeforeFOMC).
Even if the long-term logic continues to strengthen, short-term market trends will still be influenced by employment, wages, and rate cut expectations. The strength or weakness of the Nonfarm data will directly disturb the US dollar and US Treasury yields, causing significant volatility for BTC.
A positive long-term narrative ≠ a short-term one-way rise. Institutional acceptance represents the opening of long-term space, but trading still cannot ignore macro data risks and must maintain proper position management. A Word Carries Great Weight
Waller spoke tonight, and I felt like I heard the "real Fed Chair" speaking.
Key points:
· In the past few months, signs of inflation decline have been seen, consistent with the model's prediction that inflation would peak in summer.
· Giving inflation a chance is not inaction, but "taking responsibility."
· AI improves productivity and output, not inflation.
· The market needs communication, and I believe the right communication is to transparently tell the market the Fed's model framework based on "economic logic"—there's nothing to hide.
· The Fed has a clear view of the current economic data; we are the "model student." We do not misunderstand the data; we fully understand its meaning.
Well, Waller's speech made us feel the "familiar flavor" is back—pragmatic, not mysterious, reflecting economic data truthfully, no need to guess riddles from the Fed.
US Treasury yields plunged, the 10-year dropped from 4.78% to 4.72%, gold broke above 4520, and US stocks rose more than 1%.
In plain terms, assets are broadly rising.
Tonight marks an important turning point; market expectations for rate hikes are starting to retreat. The most dangerous moment is over. For US Treasuries and tech stocks, it's time to wait for gains and enjoy the profits.
Recently, many companies in the US software sector have hit new highs. Tonight, SNOW rose 20 centimeters. The software ETF (IGV) we analyzed before, or Microsoft, which has good monetization, are worth continued attention.
Bitcoin's recent altcoin rally has started; Hood and MSTR are also rising. This is a very good sign of the early bull market. Friends who haven't paid attention can start watching for right-side opportunities.
Tomorrow's big nonfarm payrolls report is not highly anticipated because Waller said tonight the average is 60,000 and won't drop sharply. He probably saw the data in advance; last time he also leaked hints before the PCE.
So the next important data should be next week's CPI. I expect the downward trend to continue, firmly closing the door on a September rate hike.
Wishing everyone plenty of profits!
The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice. Please be aware of risks.Violently reclaiming 80,000! $BTC surged 4% overnight—is this a rebound recovery or the start of a new rally?
The crypto market, silent for days, suddenly exploded.
$BTC surged over 4% in a single day, firmly holding above the 80,000 USD mark; $ETH followed suit, briefly hitting 2,484 USD, with the entire market showing green.
Bullish sentiment was instantly ignited, and voices of "bull market restart" and "aiming for new highs" flooded the scene again.
But the bigger the bullish candle, the more we need to stay calm: is this rise a recovery rebound after overselling, or the beginning of a new main upward wave?
1. This surge is not just random speculation by funds
This rally is not driven by random in-market funds pumping prices; the core driver is a shift in macro expectations.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller recently released dovish signals, directly cooling the market’s ongoing rate hike panic.
Previously, the market was overshadowed by repeated inflation concerns, with investors generally fearing the Fed would maintain high interest rates or even restart hikes, causing a strong dollar and high US Treasury yields that suppressed risk assets.
With this dovish signal, the dollar index and US Treasury yields both plunged, effectively opening a short-term recovery window for global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Simply put: easing rate hike expectations encouraged funds to enter the market.
2. The 80,000 mark hides the truest market battle
The 80,000 USD level has never been just a number.
Recently, the market has repeatedly tugged and pulled around this range, surging and retreating multiple times—essentially a large-scale shakeout:
• Short-term traders with weak positions repeatedly stop out and surrender chips amid volatility
• Long-term holders endure the frustrating fluctuations and finally await the rally.
When the price truly stands above 80,000, another force accelerates entry—those who missed out earlier see the rally take off, anxiety rises, and they chase the price, further fueling the rebound’s momentum.
But we must be clear: 80,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, not the final stop for the rise.
Above this level, a large amount of previously trapped positions still accumulate. The chase driven by FOMO is often fierce but questionable in sustainability. Any slight disturbance could cause a pullback and renewed volatility.
3. Don’t call the bull market just because of one big bullish candle
Every time a big bullish candle appears, the comment sections instantly fill with "bull market start" and "aiming for 100,000".
But the harsh truth of trading is: no bull market has ever started from a single official speech or one big bullish candle.
A shift in macro expectations is a long process, not defined by one statement. Today can be dovish, tomorrow hawkish; today can rise 4%, tomorrow can fall back.
Underlying market constraints remain: Middle East geopolitical risks are still brewing, inflation stickiness hasn’t disappeared, and the Fed’s policy shift is far from confirmed.
It’s too early to declare a "new bull market start" now.
More likely: a short-term recovery window has opened, but volatility and fluctuations remain the norm.
4. The safest current strategy
Facing this rebound, avoid two extremes:
❌ Blindly bearish, fighting the trend and trying to top-pick;
❌ Getting overheated, going all-in, mistaking the rebound for a bull market.
The only correct approach: follow the trend and prioritize risk control.
• Acknowledge the short-term upward trend and participate in the recovery accordingly, but never chase higher or add positions recklessly;
• Always set stop losses for every trade, control position size, and never bet all chips on a single move;
• Near the dense trapped position zone above, take profits in batches, don’t be greedy for the last leg of the rise;
• If the price falls back below key support, exit decisively without stubbornly holding or fighting.
Simply put: respect the current rebound and be wary of reversal risks.
Final thoughts
The most common time to lose money in trading is never during a decline, but during a big rally.
People are cautious when prices fall but greedy when prices soar, often ignoring risks and mistaking rebounds for reversals and recoveries for bull markets.
BTC returning to 80,000 is good—it opens space for short-term recovery.
But it’s not the end, nor a guarantee of a bull market.
Markets always rise hesitantly and end in euphoria.
The hotter the market, the more you must keep your own pace and control your position size.
After all, in this market, survival is always more important than making quick money.
Do you think this wave is a rebound recovery or a bull market start? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Institutions are not buying crypto; they are picking Bitcoin
ETF turned green again, but don't rush to write "faith is back." First, look at the three columns beside it: ETH, SOL, XRP, which were flowing out that day. Institutions are not buying crypto. They are picking Bitcoin
Eastern US September 1: Spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about 236.5 million, the largest single-day sell-off since late July. Eastern US September 2: Reversed to a net inflow of about 101.15 million (common secondary market summary: IBIT about +115.45 million, GBTC about -56.21 million). The green and red flip in one day is more honest than slogans.
More glaring contrast on the same day: Spot ETFs tracking Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all showed net outflows in public reports. The XRP side had a clear outflow of about 7.2 million. So this is not "digital assets being favored together," but "cash returning first to the BTC shelf."
August BTC ETF absorbed about 3.52 billion, the strongest single month in 2026. September started like a whip: first a large outflow, then a small inflow, still not back to the August daily average of about 160 million. The price hovered around 76,000–78,000 (as of September 2–3 secondary market). Don't mistake a single green day for a trend revival.
Category selection ≠ narrative recovery $BTC $BTC surged past $81K, with about $445M liquidated across the network in 24 hours, predominantly shorts. The market shifted from high-level consolidation to an accelerated phase dominated by short squeezes. 1. $BTC rose about 5.3% in 24 hours, breaking above the $81K mark and hitting a new high in this rebound; however, the 7-day increase is only 1.1%, indicating this is a one-time release after narrow consolidation rather than a trend acceleration. 2. Approximately $445M was liquidated network-wide in 24 hours, including $196M in $BTC liquidations, with shorts accounting for $184M (about 94%). Hyperliquid saw about $42M in single-session short liquidations. This rally's fuel is short covering rather than new spot buying, with on-chain and exchange data aligned. 3. OKX / $OKB: Today +2.7%, price around $109.8, 24-hour range $102–$111.7, volume about $30.5M. 4. Polymarket officially launched perpetual contracts covering crypto, stocks, and commodities, with up to 20x leverage; the prediction market platform is entering the derivatives space, expanding on-chain trading scenarios into traditional categories. 5. Metaplanet increased holdings by 1,007 $BTC, reserves surpassing 20,000 BTC, and Capital B is also planning to add 376 BTC during financing; treasury companies remain active above $80KWant to go long, wasn't the plot already spoiled in advance? Why insist on being the fuel?
This round of rise was already mentioned last night, going long, Bitcoin pre-set wave at 765 targeting 810, which has been fully realized, a full 4500 points, Ethereum at 2375 targeting 2510-60, currently the high point is 2519, also over a hundred points.
Then, this morning gave a long strategy again, adjusted the target to 810 in the afternoon in time, and kindly reminded not to stubbornly short today, or else be ready to be liquidated.
The words have been made very clear, the direction is also clear, look for yourself, how many times have the tips been given? If you just listen once, you wouldn't be among those liquidated.
Small losses are not scary, what’s scary is that you keep holding on stubbornly, and eventually your account is gone. If Wukong can give you a glimmer of hope, would you reach out for help?"The crypto market has seen a strong rally, with $BTC climbing from a low of $76,957 to $81,367, a 24-hour increase of 4.70%; $ETH also rebounded strongly from around $2,360 to above $2,510, surging over 5% simultaneously. The rapid rebound after hitting a high resistance level demonstrates the resilience of the bulls.
The core catalyst for this round of market movement comes from the macro level. The latest US initial jobless claims increased more than expected, signaling a cooling labor market; Federal Reserve Governor Waller subsequently stated that if inflation cools in August, it would support keeping interest rates unchanged. As a result, the market's bet on a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63.2% to 50.4%. Meanwhile, the US-Iran military conflict continues to escalate, pushing geopolitical risk premiums higher. Expectations of looser monetary policy combined with safe-haven demand have driven Bitcoin back above the $80,000 mark after several days.
Looking ahead, several key variables need attention. Technically, the $81,000-$82,000 range has repeatedly been a resistance zone for BTC, while ETH faces strong resistance around $2,560-$2,630. The short-term RSI has entered the overbought area, indicating a need for a pullback to digest gains. In terms of liquidity, the current order book depth is very shallow, meaning that any new catalyst could significantly amplify price volatility. The key support level for BTC is at $78,000, while ETH's short-term bull lifeline lies around $2,350-$2,360.
The market will next focus on the US August CPI data to be released on September 11—if inflation exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations may return; if the data is moderate, the rebound trend is likely to continue. The core of the bulls vs. bears battle remains the tug-of-war between macro policy expectations and market liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 I now lean more toward the view that the Fed may not continue raising rates in September. The next key variable is U.S. employment data. If nonfarm payrolls cool significantly on Friday, the market may re-bet on rate cuts before year-end, and short-term U.S. Treasury yields may come under pressure. Meanwhile, inflation figures themselves may not be the only focus. Compared to a single CPI data, the market is more concerned about: 👉 Will the Fed shift to a more accommodative policy in the coming months? 👉 Will short-term U.S. interest rates continue to decline? 👉 Has the dollar entered a phase of weakness? The foreign exchange market is also worth watching. USD/JPY has recently fallen rapidly, the yen has shown a clear rebound, and market expectations for further tightening by the Bank of Japan are also rising. If U.S. short-term interest rates continue to fall and dollar pressure increases, risk assets may find new liquidity support. 🔥 Key BTC positions: $78K → $82K: Short-term breakout range $85K → $90K: Next phase target 🚀 If $90K is effectively broken, the market may further challenge $98K–$105K Of course, if the nonfarm payroll far exceeds expectations and pushes rate hike expectations higher, BTC could also be suppressed again. The real focus now is not just whether CPI is 2% or 3%, but when will liquidity shift again? #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Fed #NFP #FOMC #USDJPY #RaSeptember 3 BTC Full-Day Summary
Bitcoin experienced a typical V-shaped rebound throughout the day. During the Asian session, the price dipped with momentum, hitting a low of $76,400, which was close to the average holding cost of active on-chain investors ($76,350), receiving buying support. Afterwards, the price oscillated and recovered throughout the day. In the US session, driven by macro news, it accelerated upward, consecutively breaking through the $78,000, $79,000, and $80,000 levels, reaching a high of $81,188, and finally closing above $81,000. The candlestick data shows that the BOLL lower band ($77,018) and upper band ($81,683) precisely framed the intraday trading range.
The core catalyst came from Federal Reserve Governor Waller's dovish signal, indicating a preference to keep rates unchanged in September, with the probability of a rate hike falling from 63% to 60%. The US dollar came under pressure, and risk assets collectively rebounded. This was compounded by risk-off sentiment due to escalating US-Iran military tensions and expectations around the SEC regulatory bill vote, creating a resonance of multiple factors. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $217 million that day, also providing incremental funds for the market.
Technically, the daily bullish trend remains intact, but there is obvious resistance near $82,000 (a dense supply area for long-term holders). The short-term support has moved up to the $78,500–$79,000 range, with stronger support still around $76,200. The intraday volatility was nearly $5,000, with significantly increased volume. The subsequent trend requires close attention to the September 4 non-farm payroll data $BTC's sudden late-night surge is ruthless, shooting straight up to the 81,000 high in less than two hours! Watching ETH and OKB follow suit with collective excitement, the screen full of green is truly intoxicating.
The mastermind behind this rally is the Fed's Waller. The old man’s remark, "If inflation cools down, we’ll hold steady," instantly cut the panic over a September rate hike in half. Once the macro tightening spell loosened, hot money immediately sniffed the opportunity and rushed in.
The pause in rate hikes is indeed sweet, but don’t forget, tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls are the "ultimate judgment" waiting ahead, which is the real key to the market’s future.
Although this surge looks great, the biggest risk is "buying the rumor, selling the fact." Such violent pumps often come fast and go fast. At the current levels, it’s advised to hold back and not get carried away; chasing highs is no joke in terms of risk. Pre-Market Thoughts — 3 Sep 2026 Yields retraced roughly 5bps across the curve, while oil also cooled off. US markets saw weak price action overnight, but there were early signs of seller exhaustion across semis and related names. $NVDA led the move, potentially helped by reports that the company told JPM it could have delivered 100% revenue growth if not for supply constraints. Heading into Asia, markets initially rallied nicely. Then around 12PM HKT, rumors emerged that the US could be preparShorted $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payroll tonight!
Just now, $ETH gave me a comfortable short position near 2510, and the position is already entered.
Why dare to short at this level?
$ETH has rebounded continuously to above 2500, but this level clearly has resistance. If it continues to surge in the short term, first observe whether the 2520-2550 area can truly hold.
The real big variable tonight is not ETH itself, but the US non-farm payroll.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US will release August non-farm employment data.
The market currently expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1.
What’s more noteworthy is that the leading data is not particularly strong: August ADP private employment only increased by 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; July non-farm payroll actually decreased by 23,000.
So if tonight’s non-farm payroll is significantly below expectations, the market may re-trade the logic of "weaker employment → Fed policy shift," supporting risk assets, and ETH might see a quick rally.
Conversely, if the non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected, combined with no rise in the unemployment rate, the rate cut expectations may cool further, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, and ETH will need to be cautious about continued short-term pressure.
So my short near 2510 this time is not a blind bearish bet but a preemptive short-term play.
My thinking is simple:
Below 2500 → continue to watch the bears.
2470-2450 → watch the strength of the first pullback.
If it reclaims 2520 with sustained volume → admit the short position was wrong.
After the non-farm data is released tonight, whether up or down, first watch the initial sharp move, then decide the next step.
In this kind of data-driven market, the biggest taboo is chasing after a big bullish or bearish candle immediately.
My $ETH short near 2510 is already in place; tonight we’ll see if the non-farm payroll gives an opportunity.
In data-driven markets, make money on what you understand.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Do you know why it's rallying? Just three words: repricing
It's not that things are broken, it's that money has become more expensive.
The US Treasury yield has hit 4.8%, so putting money in the bank earns a guaranteed 4.8% in a year. Gold $XAU, silver, Bitcoin $BTC, tech stocks—whether you have a story or not, they all get discounted first.
Why are oil prices still rising?
The US and Iran are still attacking each other, Trump says he's ready to strike again anytime, and shipping through the strait remains unsafe. Now $CL WTI is at 91, Brent is approaching 96.
This is a geopolitical premium, moving opposite to interest rate logic.
Why are gold and silver rebounding?
The ADP small nonfarm payrolls surprised—only 38,000 added in August, below expectations. The probability of a rate hike dropped from 67% to 62%, giving gold and silver a breather. But tonight's nonfarm payrolls will decide life or death, with an expectation of 58,000.
Good data → rate hike expectations retreat → gold and silver continue to fall
Poor data → rate hike expectations drop → gold and silver bounce back
(Please take notes, there might be a quiz next time)
Why is Bitcoin rallying?
Short term it rose from 80,727 to 81,367, up 0.6%. With the US and Iran clashing, BTC is being bought as "digital gold." But above 80,000, 1.05 million BTC are pressing down, so breaking through isn't that easy.
Japan is even more intense
The probability of a rate hike in September is 94%, and Kazuo Ueda himself said a rate hike is possible. The world's cheapest borrowing place is about to close.
Summary: Oil prices are waiting for geopolitical tensions to cool, gold and silver are waiting for the nonfarm payrolls, BTC is waiting to break through 80,000, and everyone is waiting for the Fed's decision on September 16.
Wait for me to release data before tonight's nonfarm payrolls $FIL This rebound is indeed quite interesting.
The overall market is still fluctuating, but FIL has risen 15% against the trend, with short positions liquidated over $1.54 million in a single day. The market is once again pricing Filecoin as a "decentralized data layer."
Why the increase?
On one hand, AI training data demand is truly exploding—Filecoin's storage utilization rate has climbed from single digits two years ago to 36%, with 925 clients storing over 1000TB of data. Since the Onchain Cloud mainnet launched in January this year, FVM lock-up has further tightened short-term supply.
The bigger highlight is the first halving in October. Block rewards will be cut from 32 to 16, and the annual inflation rate will drop from 18% to about 7%. The market always speculates on expectations months in advance, and now is the window period.
Volume is also cooperating—24-hour trading volume is about $250 million, with a clear increase in activity.
But don't forget the other side of FIL: there is still 16%-18% new supply added over the past year, and the largest historical drawdown is close to 99.7%. This asset has historically caused many losses.
In the short term, around 0.78 is support, and 0.86 is previous high resistance. If it can hold above 0.8, there is room to rise; if 0.78 is effectively broken, the AI + halving narrative will have to pause first.
So I tend to treat FIL as a highly elastic position in the AI + storage sector—take advantage of the momentum when there is a market, but don't talk about faith when there isn't one. #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 Market news: Saudi Arabia has set the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil shipped to the United States in October at a premium of $4.60 per barrel over the ASCI (Argus Sour Crude Index) benchmark.
Quick science: ASCI is the spot index for sour crude oil in the US Gulf of Mexico. Saudi Arabia's long-term contract crude oil shipments to the US are priced based on this index. An increase in the premium indicates Saudi Arabia's optimistic outlook on North American crude oil spot demand.
Signal interpretation
1. The rising OSP premium indicates that Saudi Arabia assesses US refinery purchasing demand as strong, the US Gulf crude spot market supply and demand is tight, refinery operations remain at a good level, and refineries are willing to accept higher import premiums.
2. This is Saudi Aramco's monthly official long-term contract pricing, directly reflecting the real spot market conditions, and indirectly influencing WTI and Brent futures markets. An increase in the premium is generally a bullish signal for oil prices.
3. However, it is important to distinguish that this pricing is only for the US region and must be considered alongside Saudi Arabia's OSP quotes for Asia and Europe, OPEC+ production cut compliance, US crude inventories, and tonight's nonfarm payroll data for a comprehensive judgment.
Market impact logic
✅ If nonfarm payroll data shows resilience, a stronger US dollar may partially offset the spot crude oil bullishness;
✅ If nonfarm payroll data misses expectations, a weaker US dollar combined with Saudi spot price hikes may amplify bullish sentiment in oil prices;
⚠️ Geopolitical conflicts, rig counts, and inventory data remain key variables disrupting oil prices.
Objective reminder: An increase in spot premiums does not equate to a unilateral rise in oil prices; long-term contract pricing reflects monthly terms. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls are the final major labor-market signal before the next FOMC meeting. Market consensus is around 55K, while I’m expecting a weaker print near 35K.
My scenarios:
🔴 Below 40K — 40%
Major miss → rate hike could be pushed to October.
🟡 40K–80K — 35%
More balanced result → CPI and Fed commentary become the deciding factors.
🟢 Above 80K — 25%
Stronger jobs → hike expectations rise, and $BTC could fall toward $75K.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50-point expansion threshold and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The policy decision in September may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农🟢 تغطية خاصة: بيانات الوظائف غير الزراعية (NFP) – المحطة الأخيرة قبل اجتماع الفيدرالي (FOMC) تتجه الأنظار غداً في تمام الساعة 20:30 نحو إصدار بيانات الرواتب غير الزراعية، وهي المؤشر الأهم حالياً لرسم اتجاه السوق. 📊 القراءة التحليلية للتوقعات: يستقر إجماع السوق حالياً عند إضافة 55,000 وظيفة. لكن بالنظر إلى السلبية العامة في المؤشرات الاقتصادية المساعدة، أميل شخصياً لسيناريو أضعف حول 35,000 وظيفة. فالتقديرات القادمة من السوق غالباً ما تبالغ في التفاؤل (كما حدث في بيانات يوليو عندما رجّح التوقع إTrump is still powerful!
One sentence can move the entire market!
So amazing!
Long $ETH position taken at 2357
Currently floating profit of 11171U
Do not close the long position for now
Just sweep the liquidity above once, then you can withdraw
This round of rally is not all because of Trump's remarks
Waller signals that rates may remain unchanged in September
US stocks and crypto are warming up together
Trump is responsible for igniting
Rate expectations are responsible for pushing funds back
ETH has pulled back near 2500
Intraday gain over 4%
Rushed from around 2370 to 2515
2515 to 2550 is the first resistance ahead
After breaking through, next is 2600
2600 with volume taken
Liquidity above 2700 will truly open
However, on September 2, ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of 48.2 million USD
Indicating that although the price is strong
Institutional funds have not fully synchronized
Long positions can continue to be held
This position is not suitable for recklessly adding hundredfold leverage
$BTC has surged back above 80000
Intraday high has already touched above 81300
On September 2, spot ETF net inflow was 101.1 million USD
Funds that flowed out the previous day are being replenished
The real big resistance ahead is between 82700 and 83000
Breaking through here
The market will reprice the 90000 expectation
Falling back below 79000
This round of sentiment rally will be discounted
$SNDK did not follow the market rally today
Intraday decline about 1%
Short-term support near 1510
1555 to 1600 remains a resistance area
But fundamentals have not suddenly worsened
Latest quarterly revenue 8.97 billion USD
Sequential growth 51%
Full-year revenue growth 175%
Data center business growth 437%
Company also added a 14 billion USD buyback plan
Currently more like high-level consolidation digesting chips
Only after reclaiming 1560
Is there room to continue pushing upward
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance 🚀 $BTC | GETTING READY FOR THE NEXT MOVE
I’m leaning toward no Fed hike in September.
If tomorrow’s payroll data comes in soft, the market could start pricing in a rate cut before year-end.
CPI at 2% or 3% may matter less than the broader rate outlook.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY move looks like it may have already peaked, with plenty of room for a reversal.
Lower U.S. short-term rates could give $BTC the fuel to break higher.
🔥 $85K breaks → $100K could come fast.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC The pre-market today is very strong, with gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all rising. It seems to be because of Waller's recent statement.
Waller said whether to support a rate hike in September will depend on the August CPI data released next Friday.
This effectively changes Waller's baseline at the Jackson Hole meeting from "hike unless the data is good enough" to "no hike unless the data is hot enough." Influenced by this speech, the CME's probability of a September rate hike dropped by ten percentage points to 50.4%.
According to the logic that gold prices rise when the rate hike probability falls and fall when the probability rises, the recent gold price surge is pricing in this 10% drop in the rate hike probability.
In other words, the previous price of 4280 might be the lowest point of this pullback. If tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls, next week's CPI, or even the 9.16 FOMC meeting bring prices close to this level again, be ready to jump back in.
Moreover, after gold's recent rise, the yields on US Treasuries for 2, 10, and 30 years all showed a significant decline. If yields rebound, today's sharp jump might still be given back. $XAUT # Not a complete reversal! This wave is a short squeeze tail wave + macro resonance⚠️
Many mistakenly believe the market reversal is confirmed, but in reality, it's the tail end of short squeeze combined with macro expectations driving it. $BTC surged to 81,300, $ETH rose above 2500, but both retreated from highs on August 23. 24h long liquidations account for 80%, totaling $880 million, indicating the chasing buyers are being shaken out.
Sources of the rise: decline in long-term US Treasury yields, White House summit expectations, and forced liquidation of over $3 billion in shorts triggering passive buying, not continuous spot inflows. The ETF net inflow of $1.1 billion is a relay, not the ignition of the market.
Two entry conditions, choose one; avoid blindly chasing highs:
1. Pullback to low longs: BTC 74,000-76,000, ETH 2300-2350 with volume contraction and stabilization, light long positions, stop loss 1.5% below.
2. Right-side follow-up: solid close above BTC 80,000, ETH 2500, with volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days before participating.
Daily RSI at 82 is severely overbought; a whale transferred 7,700 BTC to exchanges in 3 days. Chasing the bullish candle directly risks catching the top; rapid rallies without pullbacks are likely false breakouts. Waiting for a pullback can reduce costs by 5-8%. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 I am Cige. Tonight at 8:30, the August nonfarm payrolls, the last piece of the puzzle before the FOMC.
ADP has already given the answer: private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January. The Beige Book also said that 10 of the 12 districts showed only moderate growth, with employment growth slowing. Data is cooling down, but CME shows a 62.3% chance of a rate hike in September. On the inflation side, core PCE remains at 3.3%, with 54% of the 178 PCE components rising more than 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is signaling cooling, inflation is still rising, and the market cannot price unilaterally.
Nonfarm payroll expectations are very divided. Reuters survey expects an increase of 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, Wells Fargo and NBC expect 80,000. The difference in expectations is the source of volatility; any miss on either side will cause a strong reaction.
If nonfarm payrolls are below 58,000, rate hike expectations will be extinguished, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 80,000. If nonfarm payrolls exceed 80,000, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, BTC will continue to be under pressure, looking down to 75,000 or even 72,000. Don't bet on the data; wait for it to land before making a move. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH $SOL This is quite interesting. Let's first look at the data: This year, the US Treasury yield rose by 58 basis points, but the US dollar index only increased by 0.9%, barely moving. According to the traditional script, when yields go up, the dollar should take off accordingly, but this time it didn't keep up. So the logic has changed. Previously, people thought high yields meant buying dollars, but now the market is starting to think high yields mean greater fiscal pressure, so the dollar is actuallEveryone tells you: halving landing + continuous ETF net inflows → Bitcoin directly hits new highs, the main bull market wave fully opens the door.
The reality is: in the 83,000 to 86,000 range, nearly $3 billion of high-leverage long positions have already been liquidated, and the 90-day correlation between $BTC and US tech stocks is actually rising. The so-called "independent hard asset market" is not as solid as everyone thinks.
This is not a drill. On September 4, just after breaking the 80,000 mark, top market makers immediately placed a large sell order of 15,000 BTC at 80,800, instantly wiping out one-third of the long positions chasing the high. Wall Street asset managers openly stated that at the current position they only reduce floating profits and do not add new positions, while retail community long positions have surged to 87%, with almost everyone fully invested, waiting for a breakdown.
Bitcoin dropped directly from the intraday high of 80,900 to 79,100, with $800 million long positions forcibly liquidated in less than two hours.
What’s the most ironic? The bull market trend is clearly on the table, yet you go all-in with leverage expecting to hit 86,000, only to be washed out and liquidated first.
Everyone says that only dying longs make big money in a bull market, but no one tells you that every key resistance level in a bull market is a liquidation trap tailor-made for those chasing highs.
In the past month, whales transferred out 120,000 BTC above 75,000, and most of the chips didn’t go into new institutional pockets but flowed entirely into retail accounts on exchanges. The so-called "institutions continuously bottom-fishing" is essentially whales using the bull market consensus to distribute chips to those chasing highs at the top. 86,000 is not a new high starting point; it’s clearly their best hunting ground for mass harvesting high-leverage longs.
Next, remember three iron rules when watching the market: don’t go all-in chasing longs in the 80,000-82,000 range; daily spot net inflows under 10,000 BTC mean all breakouts are fake; wait for a pullback to the 77,000-79,000 support range to build positions in batches, avoiding the liquidation pool above 83,000, which doubles your winning rate; once the 75,000 defense level is effectively broken, immediately reduce positions unconditionally, don’t hold expecting a "quick rebound."
You think this is the stage of the bull market where you can blindly win by holding, but the ingrained "dying long" knowledge will ultimately become the scythe that cuts you off.
$ETH @米花Lilac_OKX #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The $CORE project team is playing word games. They say they are burning the amount of tokens minted beyond the 2.1 billion supply, not the amount within the 2.1 billion supply. At first glance, it might seem like they are burning tokens within the 2.1 billion supply. It should be noted that the amount minted this time is definitely not less than 150 million tokens, probably over 200 million. Previously, the circulating supply on exchanges seemed to be just over 1.2 billion tokens. $BTC $ETH are back!
This time, 21 banks are joining forces to launch a US dollar stablecoin, targeting a launch in the first half of 2027, and even a company has been established!
Yesterday, these 21 globally systemically important banks have already made the decision.
The playbook is exactly the same as the TradFi beachhead we discussed before.
Strong lineup: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Mitsubishi UFJ are all included, covering five continents and basically the global US dollar clearing flow. This is a settlement layer alliance, not a marketing show.
The timing is tight. Only 10 banks were exploring last October, doubling in less than a year; behind this is Trump's January 2025 executive order banning CBDCs and only supporting private US dollar stablecoins. This wave from banks is policy-driven to grab payment licenses.
The target is directly USDC and USDT. The stablecoin market is $309.6 billion, with USDT accounting for $183.4 billion, but the bank coin is aimed at institutional settlement and corporate treasury.
Circle was backstabbed in June by Visa/Mastercard/Stripe with the establishment of Open USD, causing its stock price to crash. This time, with 21 banks joining, Circle is the one truly worried.
However, the company name, blockchain, and custodian are all undecided, and JPMorgan Chase is not in the group. The real outcome will be seen in 2027.
An 18-month slow variable, 7-day signals are not important.
The winning move: the bank coin going on-chain will be the first to rewrite USDC's regulatory premium and exchange stablecoin spread. In the short term, bearish on Circle's chips, bullish on the "compliant settlement layer" narrative.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 Three scenarios for the non-farm payrolls, prepare your market plan in advance
First, get me out of this position, I’m leaving, so scared
1. Non-farm payrolls and wages both below expectations: employment cools down, inflation pressure eases, rate cut expectations rise. US Treasury yields decline, $BTC holds key levels, $ETH fully releases its elasticity, rebound potential opens up.
2. Data around expectations: no surprises, market continues original oscillation pattern, BTC and ETH battle back and forth within range, hard to break out into a strong one-sided trend.
3. Non-farm employment exceeds expectations with wage growth remaining high: rate cut expectations delayed again, US Treasury yields rebound. Risk assets under pressure, ETH’s pullback will be significantly larger than BTC’s.
ADP has already taught the market a lesson; positive news often leads to buying the expectation and selling the fact. Even if data is good, watch out for the risk of profit-taking after the spike.
Volatility will significantly increase after the non-farm release, prioritize managing your positions; surviving in crypto is more important than one-time huge profits
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ BTC hovers near 77,000 with neither bulls nor bears daring to blink first
Today $BTC feels most like a breath-holding contest. The price grinds back and forth around $77,000. Yesterday it even briefly dipped below $80,000. Logically, with oil prices surging, US Treasury yields rising, and the market revisiting September rate hike probabilities, this backdrop is unfavorable for risk assets. Yet it didn’t break down accordingly; instead, it held steady near 77,000. This kind of price action is more worth watching than a big bullish candle.
Many like to judge $BTC simply as "up means strong, down means weak," but today that’s too crude. It already rose about 25% in August, and after that, with US-Iran tensions escalating, oil near highs, and Treasury yields pressuring the market, short-term profit-taking is normal. The real key isn’t that it pulled back, but who is buying on the dip. If volume near 77,000 remains controlled, it means this isn’t panic selling but high-level rotation.
The biggest difference between this $BTC cycle and previous retail-driven bull runs is the addition of slow money like ETFs and corporate treasuries underneath. Slow money won’t flee after a single bearish candle like Meme funds do; they focus on dollar credit, fiscal deficits, asset allocation, and long-term scarcity. The more chaotic the short-term macro environment, the more BTC is sold as a risk asset; but the same macro chaos also leads some funds to buy it as a hard asset. This creates today’s conflicted price action.
I’m watching three key levels: 75,000 as short-term defense, 78,000 as sentiment recovery, and 80,000 as re-attack line. As long as 75,000 isn’t decisively broken with volume, bulls haven’t lost ground; if it reclaims 78,000, the market will start repairing doubts caused by yesterday’s dip below 80,000; if 80,000 is taken back and holds on a pullback, that’s when the next leg up truly begins.
This isn’t a time for mindless chasing, nor for shorting just because of headlines. Oil prices and Treasury yields do suppress risk appetite, but the Trump administration’s friendlier crypto regulatory backdrop remains, and institutional allocation frameworks haven’t disappeared. One factor pressures, another supports, so price naturally oscillates in this key range.
I prefer to see today as a "bulls’ test day." If bulls are strong, 75,000 won’t break with volume; if bears are strong, the bounce near 78,000 won’t hold with volume. Whoever breaks the other side’s key line first gains short-term initiative. The few thousand dollars of chop in between is the easiest trap for chasing highs and lows.
A simple message for traders: now isn’t the time to guess the top, but to watch who’s absorbing the moves. As long as $BTC stays above 75,000, the main market thesis is intact; if it breaks below 75,000 and can’t recover, don’t preach faith to the chart. The biggest fear in a strong market isn’t a pullback, but a pullback with no buyers.
This piece isn’t about urging others to rush in, but about focusing readers on the two thresholds: 75,000 and 80,000. If these hold, neither bulls nor bears should get too cocky; if broken, the market will naturally reveal the next direction.
If I were to make this more actionable, the conclusion must be a plan: aggressive traders watch for pullback absorption; conservative traders wait for 80,000 to firmly reclaim; those out of the market shouldn’t chase back and forth in the range. The most valuable info today isn’t the price itself, but that it didn’t crash amid bad news. If bad news can’t push it down, good news has room to amplify; if bad news breaks support, all the narratives are just consolation.
The downside risks must also be clear. If oil prices keep pushing inflation expectations higher, and Treasury yields keep rising, $BTC will still be dragged down short-term as a risk asset. Don’t mistake "long-term bullish" for "no short-term dips." The mature approach is to acknowledge BTC’s hard asset logic while clearly explaining risks if 75,000 fails.
If the market stays sideways tonight, I’ll treat it as chip rotation; if volume suddenly surges to 80,000, I’ll watch for pullback confirmation; if it crashes below 75,000, I’ll cool down the bull narrative first. Trading isn’t about taking sides, it’s about waiting for the market to finish speaking. $BTC hasn’t finished talking today.Gold suddenly accelerates!!
$XAU Gold suddenly accelerated to around 4470 tonight. The core reason is not a geopolitical escalation, but Waller's remark "we can wait a bit" which pushed the September rate hike probability down from around 60% to 54%, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall together. A couple of days ago, rate expectations were being cut, but today the logic reversed. The short-term indeed turned stronger, but since the non-farm payroll data hasn't been released yet, I prefer to wait for data confirmation.
$BICO Still the same issue: the hype brought by Upbit has mostly faded, and the price now relies not on news but on real buying. If volume continues to shrink and the price moves sideways here, it's actually not bad, indicating fewer people willing to sell aggressively; on the contrary, if suddenly there is huge volume but the price fails to reclaim the previous platform, beware of holders using the rebound to escape. Before a breakout, treat it as a bottoming process.
$OKB Continues to pull back today, with a 24-hour drop of about 3%, but the positioning of X Layer as a Gas asset remains unchanged. The previous sharp rise now lacks new catalysts, so a shakeout is not unexpected. I pay more attention to whether volume decreases during the pullback; as long as there is no continuous volume-driven sell-off, this sideways digestion is healthier than a hard pull-up.
$QQQ benefits first tonight from the cooling of yields, but oil prices hitting a six-week high remain a hidden risk; concerns about $TRUMP team addresses transferring supply into exchanges persist, so the rebound depends more on sentiment; $HYPE buybacks remain strong support, with a cumulative scale of about $1.3 billion. Going forward, the focus is not just on unlock numbers but on actual claim volume and high-level absorption.
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 MicroStrategy restarts buying spree, BitMine earns passive cash flow
On the same day, two completely different paths.
MicroStrategy made a move again after ten weeks of silence, with funds coming from a stock issuance. BitMine quietly increased its position by 53,501 ETH, spending $131 million, continuing uninterrupted for 65 weeks. Two companies, two treasury philosophies, no superiority, only different paths.
MicroStrategy's logic is a one-way bet: issue stock → buy BTC → BTC rises → company value increases. This closed loop works in a bull market but reveals weaknesses in a volatile market. The average purchase price this round was $80,318, while $BTC is currently $77,000, showing an unrealized loss of about 4%. Total holdings are 845,050 BTC, valued at $66.1 billion, an astonishing amount, yet it generates no cash flow. Short-term volatility cannot be hedged, so it must be endured.
BitMine takes a different route. Holding 5.9 million $ETH, it doesn't rely on price appreciation but on staking yields, producing stable cash flow exceeding $300 million annually. This is not a capital gains game but a compounding accumulation of income-generating assets. Even if ETH's price remains flat, the cash flow keeps snowballing.
MicroStrategy bets on BTC becoming the world's reserve asset, BitMine bets on ETH becoming the income layer of the internet. One is a bet on the endgame, the other on detailed accounting. $BTC $ETH
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Nonfarm payroll countdown, $BTC directly surged violently by 2000 points, the market suddenly got lively.
Did someone know something in advance?
Honestly, this rally feels a bit like a "jump start."
Waller verbally gave some dovish hints, but looking at the data—US Services PMI directly hit 55.4, the price index still stuck at a high 72.6, the shadow of inflation hasn’t lifted at all. The market’s expectation for a 25BP rate hike in September remains around 64%, no cooling down.
Tomorrow’s nonfarm forecast is an increase of 56,000; if the data is even a bit stronger, the 80,000 level could instantly flip from support to resistance.
Looking at $BEAT now, hovering around 0.124, 24-hour volume is only about 6.7 million U. The unlocked chips haven’t been fully digested yet, so continuous rallies with this volume are quite difficult. At least it needs to prove it can hold 0.13, otherwise it’s all just talk.
$ZEC has some action, around 850, with 24-hour volume still at 440 million USD, very active turnover at high levels. But the biggest fear for such a strong coin is a sharp move triggered by nonfarm data, jumping up and down—neither chasing longs nor shorts is safe.
So when $BTC really approaches 80,000, I’d rather watch others feast than catch this last leg.
At this level, it’s not about who’s braver, but who lasts longer. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 [Pharaoh's Market Watch] How come Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings reports are worlds apart? Pharaoh says it straight: Broadcom's data exploded, but its stock fell 6% after hours because the market's measuring stick has changed — just beating expectations isn't enough anymore; you have to beat them outrageously. Broadcom's Q3 revenue was ¥29.591 billion, up 86% year-over-year, AI semiconductors at ¥16.7 billion, soaring 221%, EPS $3.32 all beating expectations. The CEO also raised the AI revenu