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$BTC surged past $81K, with about $445M liquidated across the network in 24 hours, predominantly shorts. The market shifted from high-level consolidation to an accelerated phase dominated by short squeezes. 1. $BTC rose about 5.3% in 24 hours, breaking above the $81K mark and hitting a new high in this rebound; however, the 7-day increase is only 1.1%, indicating this is a one-time release after narrow consolidation rather than a trend acceleration. 2. Approximately $445M was liquidated network-wide in 24 hours, including $196M in $BTC liquidations, with shorts accounting for $184M (about 94%). Hyperliquid saw about $42M in single-session short liquidations. This rally's fuel is short covering rather than new spot buying, with on-chain and exchange data aligned. 3. OKX / $OKB: Today +2.7%, price around $109.8, 24-hour range $102–$111.7, volume about $30.5M. 4. Polymarket officially launched perpetual contracts covering crypto, stocks, and commodities, with up to 20x leverage; the prediction market platform is entering the derivatives space, expanding on-chain trading scenarios into traditional categories. 5. Metaplanet increased holdings by 1,007 $BTC, reserves surpassing 20,000 BTC, and Capital B is also planning to add 376 BTC during financing; treasury companies remain active above $80KWant to go long, wasn't the plot already spoiled in advance? Why insist on being the fuel?
This round of rise was already mentioned last night, going long, Bitcoin pre-set wave at 765 targeting 810, which has been fully realized, a full 4500 points, Ethereum at 2375 targeting 2510-60, currently the high point is 2519, also over a hundred points.
Then, this morning gave a long strategy again, adjusted the target to 810 in the afternoon in time, and kindly reminded not to stubbornly short today, or else be ready to be liquidated.
The words have been made very clear, the direction is also clear, look for yourself, how many times have the tips been given? If you just listen once, you wouldn't be among those liquidated.
Small losses are not scary, what’s scary is that you keep holding on stubbornly, and eventually your account is gone. If Wukong can give you a glimmer of hope, would you reach out for help?"The crypto market has seen a strong rally, with $BTC climbing from a low of $76,957 to $81,367, a 24-hour increase of 4.70%; $ETH also rebounded strongly from around $2,360 to above $2,510, surging over 5% simultaneously. The rapid rebound after hitting a high resistance level demonstrates the resilience of the bulls.
The core catalyst for this round of market movement comes from the macro level. The latest US initial jobless claims increased more than expected, signaling a cooling labor market; Federal Reserve Governor Waller subsequently stated that if inflation cools in August, it would support keeping interest rates unchanged. As a result, the market's bet on a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63.2% to 50.4%. Meanwhile, the US-Iran military conflict continues to escalate, pushing geopolitical risk premiums higher. Expectations of looser monetary policy combined with safe-haven demand have driven Bitcoin back above the $80,000 mark after several days.
Looking ahead, several key variables need attention. Technically, the $81,000-$82,000 range has repeatedly been a resistance zone for BTC, while ETH faces strong resistance around $2,560-$2,630. The short-term RSI has entered the overbought area, indicating a need for a pullback to digest gains. In terms of liquidity, the current order book depth is very shallow, meaning that any new catalyst could significantly amplify price volatility. The key support level for BTC is at $78,000, while ETH's short-term bull lifeline lies around $2,350-$2,360.
The market will next focus on the US August CPI data to be released on September 11—if inflation exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations may return; if the data is moderate, the rebound trend is likely to continue. The core of the bulls vs. bears battle remains the tug-of-war between macro policy expectations and market liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 I now lean more toward the view that the Fed may not continue raising rates in September. The next key variable is U.S. employment data. If nonfarm payrolls cool significantly on Friday, the market may re-bet on rate cuts before year-end, and short-term U.S. Treasury yields may come under pressure. Meanwhile, inflation figures themselves may not be the only focus. Compared to a single CPI data, the market is more concerned about: 👉 Will the Fed shift to a more accommodative policy in the coming months? 👉 Will short-term U.S. interest rates continue to decline? 👉 Has the dollar entered a phase of weakness? The foreign exchange market is also worth watching. USD/JPY has recently fallen rapidly, the yen has shown a clear rebound, and market expectations for further tightening by the Bank of Japan are also rising. If U.S. short-term interest rates continue to fall and dollar pressure increases, risk assets may find new liquidity support. 🔥 Key BTC positions: $78K → $82K: Short-term breakout range $85K → $90K: Next phase target 🚀 If $90K is effectively broken, the market may further challenge $98K–$105K Of course, if the nonfarm payroll far exceeds expectations and pushes rate hike expectations higher, BTC could also be suppressed again. The real focus now is not just whether CPI is 2% or 3%, but when will liquidity shift again? #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Fed #NFP #FOMC #USDJPY #RaSeptember 3 BTC Full-Day Summary
Bitcoin experienced a typical V-shaped rebound throughout the day. During the Asian session, the price dipped with momentum, hitting a low of $76,400, which was close to the average holding cost of active on-chain investors ($76,350), receiving buying support. Afterwards, the price oscillated and recovered throughout the day. In the US session, driven by macro news, it accelerated upward, consecutively breaking through the $78,000, $79,000, and $80,000 levels, reaching a high of $81,188, and finally closing above $81,000. The candlestick data shows that the BOLL lower band ($77,018) and upper band ($81,683) precisely framed the intraday trading range.
The core catalyst came from Federal Reserve Governor Waller's dovish signal, indicating a preference to keep rates unchanged in September, with the probability of a rate hike falling from 63% to 60%. The US dollar came under pressure, and risk assets collectively rebounded. This was compounded by risk-off sentiment due to escalating US-Iran military tensions and expectations around the SEC regulatory bill vote, creating a resonance of multiple factors. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $217 million that day, also providing incremental funds for the market.
Technically, the daily bullish trend remains intact, but there is obvious resistance near $82,000 (a dense supply area for long-term holders). The short-term support has moved up to the $78,500–$79,000 range, with stronger support still around $76,200. The intraday volatility was nearly $5,000, with significantly increased volume. The subsequent trend requires close attention to the September 4 non-farm payroll data $BTC's sudden late-night surge is ruthless, shooting straight up to the 81,000 high in less than two hours! Watching ETH and OKB follow suit with collective excitement, the screen full of green is truly intoxicating.
The mastermind behind this rally is the Fed's Waller. The old man’s remark, "If inflation cools down, we’ll hold steady," instantly cut the panic over a September rate hike in half. Once the macro tightening spell loosened, hot money immediately sniffed the opportunity and rushed in.
The pause in rate hikes is indeed sweet, but don’t forget, tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls are the "ultimate judgment" waiting ahead, which is the real key to the market’s future.
Although this surge looks great, the biggest risk is "buying the rumor, selling the fact." Such violent pumps often come fast and go fast. At the current levels, it’s advised to hold back and not get carried away; chasing highs is no joke in terms of risk. Pre-Market Thoughts — 3 Sep 2026 Yields retraced roughly 5bps across the curve, while oil also cooled off. US markets saw weak price action overnight, but there were early signs of seller exhaustion across semis and related names. $NVDA led the move, potentially helped by reports that the company told JPM it could have delivered 100% revenue growth if not for supply constraints. Heading into Asia, markets initially rallied nicely. Then around 12PM HKT, rumors emerged that the US could be preparShorted $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payroll tonight!
Just now, $ETH gave me a comfortable short position near 2510, and the position is already entered.
Why dare to short at this level?
$ETH has rebounded continuously to above 2500, but this level clearly has resistance. If it continues to surge in the short term, first observe whether the 2520-2550 area can truly hold.
The real big variable tonight is not ETH itself, but the US non-farm payroll.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US will release August non-farm employment data.
The market currently expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1.
What’s more noteworthy is that the leading data is not particularly strong: August ADP private employment only increased by 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; July non-farm payroll actually decreased by 23,000.
So if tonight’s non-farm payroll is significantly below expectations, the market may re-trade the logic of "weaker employment → Fed policy shift," supporting risk assets, and ETH might see a quick rally.
Conversely, if the non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected, combined with no rise in the unemployment rate, the rate cut expectations may cool further, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, and ETH will need to be cautious about continued short-term pressure.
So my short near 2510 this time is not a blind bearish bet but a preemptive short-term play.
My thinking is simple:
Below 2500 → continue to watch the bears.
2470-2450 → watch the strength of the first pullback.
If it reclaims 2520 with sustained volume → admit the short position was wrong.
After the non-farm data is released tonight, whether up or down, first watch the initial sharp move, then decide the next step.
In this kind of data-driven market, the biggest taboo is chasing after a big bullish or bearish candle immediately.
My $ETH short near 2510 is already in place; tonight we’ll see if the non-farm payroll gives an opportunity.
In data-driven markets, make money on what you understand.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Do you know why it's rallying? Just three words: repricing
It's not that things are broken, it's that money has become more expensive.
The US Treasury yield has hit 4.8%, so putting money in the bank earns a guaranteed 4.8% in a year. Gold $XAU, silver, Bitcoin $BTC, tech stocks—whether you have a story or not, they all get discounted first.
Why are oil prices still rising?
The US and Iran are still attacking each other, Trump says he's ready to strike again anytime, and shipping through the strait remains unsafe. Now $CL WTI is at 91, Brent is approaching 96.
This is a geopolitical premium, moving opposite to interest rate logic.
Why are gold and silver rebounding?
The ADP small nonfarm payrolls surprised—only 38,000 added in August, below expectations. The probability of a rate hike dropped from 67% to 62%, giving gold and silver a breather. But tonight's nonfarm payrolls will decide life or death, with an expectation of 58,000.
Good data → rate hike expectations retreat → gold and silver continue to fall
Poor data → rate hike expectations drop → gold and silver bounce back
(Please take notes, there might be a quiz next time)
Why is Bitcoin rallying?
Short term it rose from 80,727 to 81,367, up 0.6%. With the US and Iran clashing, BTC is being bought as "digital gold." But above 80,000, 1.05 million BTC are pressing down, so breaking through isn't that easy.
Japan is even more intense
The probability of a rate hike in September is 94%, and Kazuo Ueda himself said a rate hike is possible. The world's cheapest borrowing place is about to close.
Summary: Oil prices are waiting for geopolitical tensions to cool, gold and silver are waiting for the nonfarm payrolls, BTC is waiting to break through 80,000, and everyone is waiting for the Fed's decision on September 16.
Wait for me to release data before tonight's nonfarm payrolls $FIL This rebound is indeed quite interesting.
The overall market is still fluctuating, but FIL has risen 15% against the trend, with short positions liquidated over $1.54 million in a single day. The market is once again pricing Filecoin as a "decentralized data layer."
Why the increase?
On one hand, AI training data demand is truly exploding—Filecoin's storage utilization rate has climbed from single digits two years ago to 36%, with 925 clients storing over 1000TB of data. Since the Onchain Cloud mainnet launched in January this year, FVM lock-up has further tightened short-term supply.
The bigger highlight is the first halving in October. Block rewards will be cut from 32 to 16, and the annual inflation rate will drop from 18% to about 7%. The market always speculates on expectations months in advance, and now is the window period.
Volume is also cooperating—24-hour trading volume is about $250 million, with a clear increase in activity.
But don't forget the other side of FIL: there is still 16%-18% new supply added over the past year, and the largest historical drawdown is close to 99.7%. This asset has historically caused many losses.
In the short term, around 0.78 is support, and 0.86 is previous high resistance. If it can hold above 0.8, there is room to rise; if 0.78 is effectively broken, the AI + halving narrative will have to pause first.
So I tend to treat FIL as a highly elastic position in the AI + storage sector—take advantage of the momentum when there is a market, but don't talk about faith when there isn't one. #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 Market news: Saudi Arabia has set the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil shipped to the United States in October at a premium of $4.60 per barrel over the ASCI (Argus Sour Crude Index) benchmark.
Quick science: ASCI is the spot index for sour crude oil in the US Gulf of Mexico. Saudi Arabia's long-term contract crude oil shipments to the US are priced based on this index. An increase in the premium indicates Saudi Arabia's optimistic outlook on North American crude oil spot demand.
Signal interpretation
1. The rising OSP premium indicates that Saudi Arabia assesses US refinery purchasing demand as strong, the US Gulf crude spot market supply and demand is tight, refinery operations remain at a good level, and refineries are willing to accept higher import premiums.
2. This is Saudi Aramco's monthly official long-term contract pricing, directly reflecting the real spot market conditions, and indirectly influencing WTI and Brent futures markets. An increase in the premium is generally a bullish signal for oil prices.
3. However, it is important to distinguish that this pricing is only for the US region and must be considered alongside Saudi Arabia's OSP quotes for Asia and Europe, OPEC+ production cut compliance, US crude inventories, and tonight's nonfarm payroll data for a comprehensive judgment.
Market impact logic
✅ If nonfarm payroll data shows resilience, a stronger US dollar may partially offset the spot crude oil bullishness;
✅ If nonfarm payroll data misses expectations, a weaker US dollar combined with Saudi spot price hikes may amplify bullish sentiment in oil prices;
⚠️ Geopolitical conflicts, rig counts, and inventory data remain key variables disrupting oil prices.
Objective reminder: An increase in spot premiums does not equate to a unilateral rise in oil prices; long-term contract pricing reflects monthly terms. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls are the final major labor-market signal before the next FOMC meeting. Market consensus is around 55K, while I’m expecting a weaker print near 35K.
My scenarios:
🔴 Below 40K — 40%
Major miss → rate hike could be pushed to October.
🟡 40K–80K — 35%
More balanced result → CPI and Fed commentary become the deciding factors.
🟢 Above 80K — 25%
Stronger jobs → hike expectations rise, and $BTC could fall toward $75K.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50-point expansion threshold and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The policy decision in September may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农🟢 تغطية خاصة: بيانات الوظائف غير الزراعية (NFP) – المحطة الأخيرة قبل اجتماع الفيدرالي (FOMC) تتجه الأنظار غداً في تمام الساعة 20:30 نحو إصدار بيانات الرواتب غير الزراعية، وهي المؤشر الأهم حالياً لرسم اتجاه السوق. 📊 القراءة التحليلية للتوقعات: يستقر إجماع السوق حالياً عند إضافة 55,000 وظيفة. لكن بالنظر إلى السلبية العامة في المؤشرات الاقتصادية المساعدة، أميل شخصياً لسيناريو أضعف حول 35,000 وظيفة. فالتقديرات القادمة من السوق غالباً ما تبالغ في التفاؤل (كما حدث في بيانات يوليو عندما رجّح التوقع إTrump is still powerful!
One sentence can move the entire market!
So amazing!
Long $ETH position taken at 2357
Currently floating profit of 11171U
Do not close the long position for now
Just sweep the liquidity above once, then you can withdraw
This round of rally is not all because of Trump's remarks
Waller signals that rates may remain unchanged in September
US stocks and crypto are warming up together
Trump is responsible for igniting
Rate expectations are responsible for pushing funds back
ETH has pulled back near 2500
Intraday gain over 4%
Rushed from around 2370 to 2515
2515 to 2550 is the first resistance ahead
After breaking through, next is 2600
2600 with volume taken
Liquidity above 2700 will truly open
However, on September 2, ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of 48.2 million USD
Indicating that although the price is strong
Institutional funds have not fully synchronized
Long positions can continue to be held
This position is not suitable for recklessly adding hundredfold leverage
$BTC has surged back above 80000
Intraday high has already touched above 81300
On September 2, spot ETF net inflow was 101.1 million USD
Funds that flowed out the previous day are being replenished
The real big resistance ahead is between 82700 and 83000
Breaking through here
The market will reprice the 90000 expectation
Falling back below 79000
This round of sentiment rally will be discounted
$SNDK did not follow the market rally today
Intraday decline about 1%
Short-term support near 1510
1555 to 1600 remains a resistance area
But fundamentals have not suddenly worsened
Latest quarterly revenue 8.97 billion USD
Sequential growth 51%
Full-year revenue growth 175%
Data center business growth 437%
Company also added a 14 billion USD buyback plan
Currently more like high-level consolidation digesting chips
Only after reclaiming 1560
Is there room to continue pushing upward
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance 🚀 $BTC | GETTING READY FOR THE NEXT MOVE
I’m leaning toward no Fed hike in September.
If tomorrow’s payroll data comes in soft, the market could start pricing in a rate cut before year-end.
CPI at 2% or 3% may matter less than the broader rate outlook.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY move looks like it may have already peaked, with plenty of room for a reversal.
Lower U.S. short-term rates could give $BTC the fuel to break higher.
🔥 $85K breaks → $100K could come fast.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC The pre-market today is very strong, with gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all rising. It seems to be because of Waller's recent statement.
Waller said whether to support a rate hike in September will depend on the August CPI data released next Friday.
This effectively changes Waller's baseline at the Jackson Hole meeting from "hike unless the data is good enough" to "no hike unless the data is hot enough." Influenced by this speech, the CME's probability of a September rate hike dropped by ten percentage points to 50.4%.
According to the logic that gold prices rise when the rate hike probability falls and fall when the probability rises, the recent gold price surge is pricing in this 10% drop in the rate hike probability.
In other words, the previous price of 4280 might be the lowest point of this pullback. If tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls, next week's CPI, or even the 9.16 FOMC meeting bring prices close to this level again, be ready to jump back in.
Moreover, after gold's recent rise, the yields on US Treasuries for 2, 10, and 30 years all showed a significant decline. If yields rebound, today's sharp jump might still be given back. $XAUT # Not a complete reversal! This wave is a short squeeze tail wave + macro resonance⚠️
Many mistakenly believe the market reversal is confirmed, but in reality, it's the tail end of short squeeze combined with macro expectations driving it. $BTC surged to 81,300, $ETH rose above 2500, but both retreated from highs on August 23. 24h long liquidations account for 80%, totaling $880 million, indicating the chasing buyers are being shaken out.
Sources of the rise: decline in long-term US Treasury yields, White House summit expectations, and forced liquidation of over $3 billion in shorts triggering passive buying, not continuous spot inflows. The ETF net inflow of $1.1 billion is a relay, not the ignition of the market.
Two entry conditions, choose one; avoid blindly chasing highs:
1. Pullback to low longs: BTC 74,000-76,000, ETH 2300-2350 with volume contraction and stabilization, light long positions, stop loss 1.5% below.
2. Right-side follow-up: solid close above BTC 80,000, ETH 2500, with volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days before participating.
Daily RSI at 82 is severely overbought; a whale transferred 7,700 BTC to exchanges in 3 days. Chasing the bullish candle directly risks catching the top; rapid rallies without pullbacks are likely false breakouts. Waiting for a pullback can reduce costs by 5-8%. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 I am Cige. Tonight at 8:30, the August nonfarm payrolls, the last piece of the puzzle before the FOMC.
ADP has already given the answer: private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January. The Beige Book also said that 10 of the 12 districts showed only moderate growth, with employment growth slowing. Data is cooling down, but CME shows a 62.3% chance of a rate hike in September. On the inflation side, core PCE remains at 3.3%, with 54% of the 178 PCE components rising more than 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is signaling cooling, inflation is still rising, and the market cannot price unilaterally.
Nonfarm payroll expectations are very divided. Reuters survey expects an increase of 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, Wells Fargo and NBC expect 80,000. The difference in expectations is the source of volatility; any miss on either side will cause a strong reaction.
If nonfarm payrolls are below 58,000, rate hike expectations will be extinguished, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 80,000. If nonfarm payrolls exceed 80,000, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, BTC will continue to be under pressure, looking down to 75,000 or even 72,000. Don't bet on the data; wait for it to land before making a move. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH $SOL This is quite interesting. Let's first look at the data: This year, the US Treasury yield rose by 58 basis points, but the US dollar index only increased by 0.9%, barely moving. According to the traditional script, when yields go up, the dollar should take off accordingly, but this time it didn't keep up. So the logic has changed. Previously, people thought high yields meant buying dollars, but now the market is starting to think high yields mean greater fiscal pressure, so the dollar is actuallEveryone tells you: halving landing + continuous ETF net inflows → Bitcoin directly hits new highs, the main bull market wave fully opens the door.
The reality is: in the 83,000 to 86,000 range, nearly $3 billion of high-leverage long positions have already been liquidated, and the 90-day correlation between $BTC and US tech stocks is actually rising. The so-called "independent hard asset market" is not as solid as everyone thinks.
This is not a drill. On September 4, just after breaking the 80,000 mark, top market makers immediately placed a large sell order of 15,000 BTC at 80,800, instantly wiping out one-third of the long positions chasing the high. Wall Street asset managers openly stated that at the current position they only reduce floating profits and do not add new positions, while retail community long positions have surged to 87%, with almost everyone fully invested, waiting for a breakdown.
Bitcoin dropped directly from the intraday high of 80,900 to 79,100, with $800 million long positions forcibly liquidated in less than two hours.
What’s the most ironic? The bull market trend is clearly on the table, yet you go all-in with leverage expecting to hit 86,000, only to be washed out and liquidated first.
Everyone says that only dying longs make big money in a bull market, but no one tells you that every key resistance level in a bull market is a liquidation trap tailor-made for those chasing highs.
In the past month, whales transferred out 120,000 BTC above 75,000, and most of the chips didn’t go into new institutional pockets but flowed entirely into retail accounts on exchanges. The so-called "institutions continuously bottom-fishing" is essentially whales using the bull market consensus to distribute chips to those chasing highs at the top. 86,000 is not a new high starting point; it’s clearly their best hunting ground for mass harvesting high-leverage longs.
Next, remember three iron rules when watching the market: don’t go all-in chasing longs in the 80,000-82,000 range; daily spot net inflows under 10,000 BTC mean all breakouts are fake; wait for a pullback to the 77,000-79,000 support range to build positions in batches, avoiding the liquidation pool above 83,000, which doubles your winning rate; once the 75,000 defense level is effectively broken, immediately reduce positions unconditionally, don’t hold expecting a "quick rebound."
You think this is the stage of the bull market where you can blindly win by holding, but the ingrained "dying long" knowledge will ultimately become the scythe that cuts you off.
$ETH @米花Lilac_OKX #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The $CORE project team is playing word games. They say they are burning the amount of tokens minted beyond the 2.1 billion supply, not the amount within the 2.1 billion supply. At first glance, it might seem like they are burning tokens within the 2.1 billion supply. It should be noted that the amount minted this time is definitely not less than 150 million tokens, probably over 200 million. Previously, the circulating supply on exchanges seemed to be just over 1.2 billion tokens. $BTC $ETH are back!
This time, 21 banks are joining forces to launch a US dollar stablecoin, targeting a launch in the first half of 2027, and even a company has been established!
Yesterday, these 21 globally systemically important banks have already made the decision.
The playbook is exactly the same as the TradFi beachhead we discussed before.
Strong lineup: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Mitsubishi UFJ are all included, covering five continents and basically the global US dollar clearing flow. This is a settlement layer alliance, not a marketing show.
The timing is tight. Only 10 banks were exploring last October, doubling in less than a year; behind this is Trump's January 2025 executive order banning CBDCs and only supporting private US dollar stablecoins. This wave from banks is policy-driven to grab payment licenses.
The target is directly USDC and USDT. The stablecoin market is $309.6 billion, with USDT accounting for $183.4 billion, but the bank coin is aimed at institutional settlement and corporate treasury.
Circle was backstabbed in June by Visa/Mastercard/Stripe with the establishment of Open USD, causing its stock price to crash. This time, with 21 banks joining, Circle is the one truly worried.
However, the company name, blockchain, and custodian are all undecided, and JPMorgan Chase is not in the group. The real outcome will be seen in 2027.
An 18-month slow variable, 7-day signals are not important.
The winning move: the bank coin going on-chain will be the first to rewrite USDC's regulatory premium and exchange stablecoin spread. In the short term, bearish on Circle's chips, bullish on the "compliant settlement layer" narrative.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 Three scenarios for the non-farm payrolls, prepare your market plan in advance
First, get me out of this position, I’m leaving, so scared
1. Non-farm payrolls and wages both below expectations: employment cools down, inflation pressure eases, rate cut expectations rise. US Treasury yields decline, $BTC holds key levels, $ETH fully releases its elasticity, rebound potential opens up.
2. Data around expectations: no surprises, market continues original oscillation pattern, BTC and ETH battle back and forth within range, hard to break out into a strong one-sided trend.
3. Non-farm employment exceeds expectations with wage growth remaining high: rate cut expectations delayed again, US Treasury yields rebound. Risk assets under pressure, ETH’s pullback will be significantly larger than BTC’s.
ADP has already taught the market a lesson; positive news often leads to buying the expectation and selling the fact. Even if data is good, watch out for the risk of profit-taking after the spike.
Volatility will significantly increase after the non-farm release, prioritize managing your positions; surviving in crypto is more important than one-time huge profits
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ BTC hovers near 77,000 with neither bulls nor bears daring to blink first
Today $BTC feels most like a breath-holding contest. The price grinds back and forth around $77,000. Yesterday it even briefly dipped below $80,000. Logically, with oil prices surging, US Treasury yields rising, and the market revisiting September rate hike probabilities, this backdrop is unfavorable for risk assets. Yet it didn’t break down accordingly; instead, it held steady near 77,000. This kind of price action is more worth watching than a big bullish candle.
Many like to judge $BTC simply as "up means strong, down means weak," but today that’s too crude. It already rose about 25% in August, and after that, with US-Iran tensions escalating, oil near highs, and Treasury yields pressuring the market, short-term profit-taking is normal. The real key isn’t that it pulled back, but who is buying on the dip. If volume near 77,000 remains controlled, it means this isn’t panic selling but high-level rotation.
The biggest difference between this $BTC cycle and previous retail-driven bull runs is the addition of slow money like ETFs and corporate treasuries underneath. Slow money won’t flee after a single bearish candle like Meme funds do; they focus on dollar credit, fiscal deficits, asset allocation, and long-term scarcity. The more chaotic the short-term macro environment, the more BTC is sold as a risk asset; but the same macro chaos also leads some funds to buy it as a hard asset. This creates today’s conflicted price action.
I’m watching three key levels: 75,000 as short-term defense, 78,000 as sentiment recovery, and 80,000 as re-attack line. As long as 75,000 isn’t decisively broken with volume, bulls haven’t lost ground; if it reclaims 78,000, the market will start repairing doubts caused by yesterday’s dip below 80,000; if 80,000 is taken back and holds on a pullback, that’s when the next leg up truly begins.
This isn’t a time for mindless chasing, nor for shorting just because of headlines. Oil prices and Treasury yields do suppress risk appetite, but the Trump administration’s friendlier crypto regulatory backdrop remains, and institutional allocation frameworks haven’t disappeared. One factor pressures, another supports, so price naturally oscillates in this key range.
I prefer to see today as a "bulls’ test day." If bulls are strong, 75,000 won’t break with volume; if bears are strong, the bounce near 78,000 won’t hold with volume. Whoever breaks the other side’s key line first gains short-term initiative. The few thousand dollars of chop in between is the easiest trap for chasing highs and lows.
A simple message for traders: now isn’t the time to guess the top, but to watch who’s absorbing the moves. As long as $BTC stays above 75,000, the main market thesis is intact; if it breaks below 75,000 and can’t recover, don’t preach faith to the chart. The biggest fear in a strong market isn’t a pullback, but a pullback with no buyers.
This piece isn’t about urging others to rush in, but about focusing readers on the two thresholds: 75,000 and 80,000. If these hold, neither bulls nor bears should get too cocky; if broken, the market will naturally reveal the next direction.
If I were to make this more actionable, the conclusion must be a plan: aggressive traders watch for pullback absorption; conservative traders wait for 80,000 to firmly reclaim; those out of the market shouldn’t chase back and forth in the range. The most valuable info today isn’t the price itself, but that it didn’t crash amid bad news. If bad news can’t push it down, good news has room to amplify; if bad news breaks support, all the narratives are just consolation.
The downside risks must also be clear. If oil prices keep pushing inflation expectations higher, and Treasury yields keep rising, $BTC will still be dragged down short-term as a risk asset. Don’t mistake "long-term bullish" for "no short-term dips." The mature approach is to acknowledge BTC’s hard asset logic while clearly explaining risks if 75,000 fails.
If the market stays sideways tonight, I’ll treat it as chip rotation; if volume suddenly surges to 80,000, I’ll watch for pullback confirmation; if it crashes below 75,000, I’ll cool down the bull narrative first. Trading isn’t about taking sides, it’s about waiting for the market to finish speaking. $BTC hasn’t finished talking today.Gold suddenly accelerates!!
$XAU Gold suddenly accelerated to around 4470 tonight. The core reason is not a geopolitical escalation, but Waller's remark "we can wait a bit" which pushed the September rate hike probability down from around 60% to 54%, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall together. A couple of days ago, rate expectations were being cut, but today the logic reversed. The short-term indeed turned stronger, but since the non-farm payroll data hasn't been released yet, I prefer to wait for data confirmation.
$BICO Still the same issue: the hype brought by Upbit has mostly faded, and the price now relies not on news but on real buying. If volume continues to shrink and the price moves sideways here, it's actually not bad, indicating fewer people willing to sell aggressively; on the contrary, if suddenly there is huge volume but the price fails to reclaim the previous platform, beware of holders using the rebound to escape. Before a breakout, treat it as a bottoming process.
$OKB Continues to pull back today, with a 24-hour drop of about 3%, but the positioning of X Layer as a Gas asset remains unchanged. The previous sharp rise now lacks new catalysts, so a shakeout is not unexpected. I pay more attention to whether volume decreases during the pullback; as long as there is no continuous volume-driven sell-off, this sideways digestion is healthier than a hard pull-up.
$QQQ benefits first tonight from the cooling of yields, but oil prices hitting a six-week high remain a hidden risk; concerns about $TRUMP team addresses transferring supply into exchanges persist, so the rebound depends more on sentiment; $HYPE buybacks remain strong support, with a cumulative scale of about $1.3 billion. Going forward, the focus is not just on unlock numbers but on actual claim volume and high-level absorption.
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 MicroStrategy restarts buying spree, BitMine earns passive cash flow
On the same day, two completely different paths.
MicroStrategy made a move again after ten weeks of silence, with funds coming from a stock issuance. BitMine quietly increased its position by 53,501 ETH, spending $131 million, continuing uninterrupted for 65 weeks. Two companies, two treasury philosophies, no superiority, only different paths.
MicroStrategy's logic is a one-way bet: issue stock → buy BTC → BTC rises → company value increases. This closed loop works in a bull market but reveals weaknesses in a volatile market. The average purchase price this round was $80,318, while $BTC is currently $77,000, showing an unrealized loss of about 4%. Total holdings are 845,050 BTC, valued at $66.1 billion, an astonishing amount, yet it generates no cash flow. Short-term volatility cannot be hedged, so it must be endured.
BitMine takes a different route. Holding 5.9 million $ETH, it doesn't rely on price appreciation but on staking yields, producing stable cash flow exceeding $300 million annually. This is not a capital gains game but a compounding accumulation of income-generating assets. Even if ETH's price remains flat, the cash flow keeps snowballing.
MicroStrategy bets on BTC becoming the world's reserve asset, BitMine bets on ETH becoming the income layer of the internet. One is a bet on the endgame, the other on detailed accounting. $BTC $ETH
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Nonfarm payroll countdown, $BTC directly surged violently by 2000 points, the market suddenly got lively.
Did someone know something in advance?
Honestly, this rally feels a bit like a "jump start."
Waller verbally gave some dovish hints, but looking at the data—US Services PMI directly hit 55.4, the price index still stuck at a high 72.6, the shadow of inflation hasn’t lifted at all. The market’s expectation for a 25BP rate hike in September remains around 64%, no cooling down.
Tomorrow’s nonfarm forecast is an increase of 56,000; if the data is even a bit stronger, the 80,000 level could instantly flip from support to resistance.
Looking at $BEAT now, hovering around 0.124, 24-hour volume is only about 6.7 million U. The unlocked chips haven’t been fully digested yet, so continuous rallies with this volume are quite difficult. At least it needs to prove it can hold 0.13, otherwise it’s all just talk.
$ZEC has some action, around 850, with 24-hour volume still at 440 million USD, very active turnover at high levels. But the biggest fear for such a strong coin is a sharp move triggered by nonfarm data, jumping up and down—neither chasing longs nor shorts is safe.
So when $BTC really approaches 80,000, I’d rather watch others feast than catch this last leg.
At this level, it’s not about who’s braver, but who lasts longer. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 [Pharaoh's Market Watch] How come Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings reports are worlds apart? Pharaoh says it straight: Broadcom's data exploded, but its stock fell 6% after hours because the market's measuring stick has changed — just beating expectations isn't enough anymore; you have to beat them outrageously. Broadcom's Q3 revenue was ¥29.591 billion, up 86% year-over-year, AI semiconductors at ¥16.7 billion, soaring 221%, EPS $3.32 all beating expectations. The CEO also raised the AI revenuThe market is testing critical levels as majors consolidate. $BTC is hovering near $80,960 while $ETH trades around $2,502, reflecting cautious institutional positioning. Meanwhile, $SOL is holding near $104.50 as ecosystem activity builds. With upcoming macro catalysts and thin sell-side order books, eyes remain on spot buyers to see if momentum pushes past overhead resistance. Are you accumulating here or waiting for a breakout?
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops $BTC is holding near $78K, while $ETH remains around $2.4K, keeping the 4H structure in a tight consolidation.
More importantly, $BTC is still leading the market. A clean break above resistance could strengthen $ETH as well, while losing support would keep the pullback risk alive.#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3, up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points.
For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment, as service sector business activity remains resilient.
According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January, below expectations. September's policy judgment may rely more on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 $ETH $BTC $TSLA Cybercab Countdown: Tesla's Autonomous Driving Big Gamble Turns the Market into a Speculative Casino
In September 2026, the global technology and financial markets will simultaneously focus on one coordinate—Tesla's upcoming launch of the Cybercab. This self-driving taxi, hailed by Musk as a "complete redefinition of urban mobility," has yet to reveal its true form but has already sparked a classic "event-driven speculative storm" in the capital markets. Options market implied volatility has soared, social media is flooded with posts proclaiming "Robotaxi is coming," and short-term funds are rushing into Tesla stock and related concept assets like sharks sensing blood. But history repeatedly proves: the more highly anticipated a launch is, the more it becomes a hotbed for short-term intense volatility and the most dangerous gap between expectations and reality.
1. Why is Cybercab driving the market so crazy?
Because it’s not just a car, it’s a narrative. Tesla no longer wants to be valued merely as a car manufacturer; Musk has repeatedly emphasized over the years that Tesla is an AI and robotics company. Cybercab is the ultimate carrier of this narrative: no steering wheel, no pedals, fully reliant on the FSD (Full Self-Driving) system, attempting to overturn the century-old human definition of "car."
If Cybercab successfully launches and scales operations, Tesla will shift from "one-time hardware sales revenue" to "recurring revenue from mobility services," completely rewriting its valuation model. This potential is enough to send any speculator’s adrenaline soaring. Tesla’s recent pulsating stock price surge shows the market is pricing in this possibility ahead of time—even though it has yet to be proven feasible.
2. Specific manifestations of speculative interest: sentiment indicators are overheated across the board
The options market is the most honest thermometer of sentiment. Tesla options implied volatility has recently risen significantly, call option open interest has surged, and a large number of out-of-the-money call options have been snapped up by speculative funds, forming a typical "Gamma squeeze" precondition. This means if the stock price breaks directionally around the launch, volatility will be amplified; but if expectations fall short, the stampede will be equally brutal.
On social media, discussion heat around Cybercab topics is rising exponentially. Key opinion leaders compete to release "inside information" and "leaked images," with authenticity hard to verify. In short-term trading communities, the chant of "buy before the launch, sell after the launch" is incessant. This emotional atmosphere often signals a short-term top or a severe shakeout.
3. Three sources of short-term volatility
First: the event’s own uncertainty. Cybercab’s technological maturity, mass production timeline, cost control, and regulatory approval progress are all unknowns. Musk has a tradition of "painting a rosy picture at launches and slowly filling in the gaps over time." If the launch lacks substantive details, speculative funds will quickly flip to short positions.
Second: the gap between expectations and reality. The market has already priced in some optimistic scenarios for Cybercab. If the launch content remains conceptual or delivery is much later than expected, even without bad news, just "not good enough" could trigger sell-offs.
Third: resonance with macro and market structure. Global risk assets are currently in a liquidity-sensitive period, the Fed’s policy path is unclear, and market sentiment is fragile. Tesla, as a high-beta stock, tends to experience amplified declines when negative news hits.
4. Historical analogy: Tesla’s "launch curse"
Looking back at Tesla’s major product launches, stock price behavior shows a striking pattern: weeks before the launch, speculative funds push prices up; on the launch day or the next day, good news is realized, and the stock opens high but closes lower or experiences large swings. Examples include the 2017 Model 3 launch, 2019 Cybertruck launch, and 2022 AI Day—without exception.
This is because the market always "buys the rumor, sells the fact." When a stock’s price has already surged due to an event that hasn’t happened yet, the event itself often becomes the trigger for selling. The Cybercab launch is very likely to replay this script.
5. How should investors respond?
For short-term traders, the period around the Cybercab launch is a high-volatility, high-risk game window. Participation requires strict position control and readiness for both directions, avoiding reckless bets on a single direction. For medium- to long-term investors, the real focus should not be the stock price movement on launch day but whether Cybercab can demonstrate a verifiable commercialization path within the next 12 to 18 months.
The market’s attention is fixed on Cybercab, and the flame of speculation has been ignited. But remember: the most dazzling fireworks moments are often the second before darkness falls. When everyone is boiling over the same story, the real risk is quietly approaching. Focus on tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls
$ETH funding suddenly cools down
Tonight, I will actually pay more attention to $2400
ETH is still around $2400 tonight, the price hasn't clearly broken through, but the strongest ETF funds earlier have started to cool off.
Latest data shows that ETH ETF daily inflows have dropped from $102 million and $88 million previously to about $9 million.
I think this needs attention.
Because earlier, ETH was able to quickly rise from around $2000 to $2500, and institutional funds continuously entering was a very important part.
Now that funds are slowing down, ETH needs to rely more on spot buying to prove its strength.
So tonight, I won't rush to call $3000.
Hold $2400 and wait for tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls.
If the data is favorable to risk assets and $ETH retakes $2500, I think the next phase will truly begin. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue $ETH With BTC rising above $81,000, ETH also followed suit and directly surpassed $2,500. Earlier, I mentioned going long at $2,400, and many have already realized profits now. The reason I was clear about going long earlier is mainly because I believe there are too many ETH short positions around $2,200, and these are high-leverage shorts deeply trapped.
Therefore, I think ETH's price will not easily break below $2,300, which would release those high-leverage shorts from being trapped. Since those shorts are stuck, they either have to add margin or continue to add short positions at high levels to average down their price. This creates a great opportunity for ETH to rise. Additionally, ETH has been consolidating recently, and everyone is panicking, fearing a crash, with shorting sentiment spreading throughout the crypto community.
Based on the above analysis, I called for going long on ETH at $2,400 and was rewarded by the market. The fact proves that when everyone is obsessed with shorting, you need to choose to change your strategy and take a different path.Three Nonfarm Payroll Scenarios and Preparing Market Plans in Advance
Let me catch my breath first; this position is indeed tough. But don't let fear dominate your operations. We break it down into three situations:
1. Weak Data in Both Employment and Wages (both below expectations)
The market will directly price in a "soft landing + early rate cut." U.S. Treasury yields will plunge, the dollar will come under pressure, BTC will likely surge impulsively, and ETH will have the greatest rebound elasticity in an oversold state. However, note that ADP has already rehearsed the "good news turning bad upon realization" scenario. If prices spike to key resistance zones (such as BTC above 65000), be wary of bull traps. At that time, the opportunity to exit at breakeven is the best window.
2. Neutral Data (employment slightly increases, wages meet expectations)
No incremental logic; the market maintains a stock game. BTC will continue to grind within a converging triangle, and ETH’s characteristic of falling with BTC but not rising as much may become more apparent. In this case, sideways movement is not a bottom. If your position cost is relatively high, it is recommended to reduce your safety buffer while volatility is still low; don’t bet on direction.
3. Strong Data Exceeding Expectations (hot employment + sticky wages)
Rate cut expectations will be further suppressed, and the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields will weigh on all risk assets. ETH’s volatility will be greater, with drawdowns typically 1.5 to 2 times that of BTC. If this happens, don’t stubbornly hold on; prioritize executing stop-loss discipline.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Brent crude oil has returned to $94.65, approaching a six-week high. On September 1, the US military launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran, reigniting conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, and market concerns over supply disruptions have intensified again. But the bottleneck is not only in Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in August dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2017, due to attacks by Houthi forces on the Red Sea alternative route bypassing the strait. On the Russia-Ukraine front, Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have extended the diesel export ban until the end of September. With three supply lines simultaneously narrowing, oil prices are likely to rise in the short term and hard to fall.
The transmission chain to BTC is very clear. The continuous rise in oil prices will strengthen inflation concerns, possibly prompting the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, which puts pressure on risk assets including BTC. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September is already above 66%. As oil prices continue to push higher, the interest rate balance will only tilt further. BTC has fallen back from above 80,000 to around 77,000, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening in sync. Technically, BTC is oscillating near 77,500, with resistance above at 78,500 and key support between 76,000 and 77,000; a break below would target 75,000 to 74,000. Oil prices still have room to rise in the short term; as long as the geopolitical risk premium does not fade, BTC's macro pressure will not be relieved.
The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. That's all, think it over, think it through.
✌️✌️✌️
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $BTC Why can it surge back to 81,376 this time?
On the surface, it looks like a technical breakout,
but the real emotional catalysts are more than one.
First, let's look at the capital side.
The US spot BTC ETF has been continuously attracting funds,
with a cumulative net inflow of about $924 million from August 24 to 28,
institutional funds have once again provided liquidity support to the market.
Next, the macro perspective.
The US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases,
the market began to re-trade the logic of "financial repression + dilution of dollar assets",
BTC is therefore being reconsidered as an alternative asset allocation.
There is also a narrative that is easy to overlook:
MemeBitcoin just completed an $8 million financing round,
bringing topics like "Satoshi-era dormant BTC, quantum computing, private key security" back to the market.
The core is not how much BTC this $8 million can buy,
but that it reminds the market again:
Will the security of over a million early BTC
become a real market variable in the future?
So this surge of BTC to 81,376 is essentially:
Capital inflow + changes in macro expectations + warming of Bitcoin's long-term security narrative + technical breakout
Multiple factors resonating together.
But above 81K is already a strong resistance zone,
true strength is not just touching 81K,
but whether it can hold firmly with volume.
Only by holding can it continue to push towards 83K or even higher.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ This is quite interesting. Let's first look at the data: This year, the US Treasury yield rose by 58 basis points, but the US dollar index only increased by 0.9%, barely moving.
According to the traditional script, when yields go up, the dollar should take off accordingly, but this time it didn't keep up.
So the logic has changed. Previously, people thought high yields meant buying dollars, but now the market is starting to think high yields mean greater fiscal pressure, so the dollar is actually less favored.
Consider the difference in this shift.
Bitcoin fits into a very comfortable position in this new logic—when people start doubting the fiat currency system, hard assets become more attractive.
Today, as the US dollar index weakened, $BTC immediately held steady at 77,700.
At the very least, the market's current attitude toward US Treasuries and the dollar definitely deserves a fresh reconsideration.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC RWA Is Moving From Narrative to Financial Infrastructure
The most interesting crypto development may not be another token launch.
It is the continued migration of traditional financial assets onto blockchains.
$ONDO is one of the clearest names in this transition, with Ondo building infrastructure around tokenized Treasuries and other real-world financial products. Its platform is explicitly focused on bringing institutional-grade assets and financial markets onchain.
The important question is whether tokenization becomes a temporary crypto narrative or a permanent part of financial infrastructure.
The evidence is increasingly pointing toward the second.
Tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs are already expanding beyond crypto-native users, while partnerships are connecting onchain assets with established financial institutions and payment infrastructure.
My radar is watching the infrastructure layer.
$LINK matters because reliable data and cross-system connectivity become increasingly important when traditional assets move onchain.
$ETH remains central to the broader smart-contract economy, while $SOL and $APT are competing for high-throughput financial activity.
Then there is the DeFi layer.
$AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE could benefit if tokenized assets increasingly become usable as collateral, liquidity and yield-bearing instruments.
This is where the RWA thesis becomes more interesting.
The goal is not simply to put a Treasury or stock on a blockchain.
The bigger opportunity is creating a financial system where those assets can interact with lending, trading, settlement and programmable liquidity.
That could eventually make $ONDO and $LINK less about speculative narratives and more about infrastructure exposure.
But there is still a major risk: adoption must translate into actual onchain economic activity.
The market does not need another RWA headline.
It needs measurable usage.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue $BTC On days when negative news piles up, that's actually when I take the opportunity to add to my position.
With the situation in Iran heating up, US debt, the dollar, and crude oil all hitting new highs, and BTC itself undergoing a correction—despite all these bad news weighing down, Bitcoin has stubbornly held its ground. Moreover, gold has already started to rebound, indicating that funds haven't truly fled. I believe the 77,000 level is worth adding spot positions.
On the macro front, last night's ADP report was a direct flop, marking the worst growth rate this year. The employment weakness signal is clear, and the Federal Reserve is caught in the dilemma of "controlling inflation or preserving employment." The upcoming unemployment claims and non-farm payroll data are critical. Wash's hawkish remarks were also cooled down by the ADP report, with rate hike expectations now split evenly. I tend to think he's just managing expectations—midterm elections are approaching, and as long as the non-farm data is acceptable, the probability of actual rate hikes is low.
Although there are conflicts in Iran, Trump's statement suggests the crackdown won't last long, and signs of easing are emerging.
The anchor point for adding positions is the data from today and tomorrow. The overall trend is upward, but volatility won't be small, so both position size and mindset need to have some buffer. Violent rebound🔥The crypto market collectively rises, BTC returns above $81,000
Led by Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies have experienced a strong rally. Market data shows Bitcoin rising to $81,188.4, up 5.13% in the past 24 hours; Ethereum also strengthened, trading at $2,510.15, up 5.17% in 24 hours.
Market sentiment is ignited by multiple reinforcing factors. Previously, Trump publicly stated "the stock market will rise," spreading risk appetite sentiment outward and heating up the bullish atmosphere in the crypto sector.
However, the market is still constrained by macroeconomic factors: the ISM Services PMI shows economic resilience, US Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels, and the market remains tense awaiting the release of nonfarm payroll data.
Part of the short-term rise comes from sentiment repair, mixed with a short squeeze triggered by forced closing of short positions. Major coins are rising together, the market looks bullish, but verbal statements should not be taken as the core logic for sustained gains.
Caution is needed: whether this rebound is just a pulse-driven sentiment or real capital inflow, Friday's nonfarm report is a critical watershed.
- If employment data weakens, expectations for rate cuts will ferment, further benefiting risk assets;
- If employment data again exceeds expectations strongly, rate hike expectations will return, and this rebound could quickly give back gains.
In this surge, spikes and sharp reversals can occur at any time; do not be blindly tempted to chase the rally. The bigger the rise, the stricter the position control; do not mistake short-term pulses for long-term reversal signals. The recent weakness of Bitcoin is not an isolated price fluctuation; it is more like a mirror reflecting the subtle shift of funds within the crypto world. When BTC repeatedly failed to break through $80,000 and slid to around $77,000, the market's gaze began to grow cautious. 📉 Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple fell in sync, seemingly spreading a general chill, but beneath the surface, undercurrents were already stirring.
The most intriguing signal is hidden in the fund ledgers of exchange-traded products. On September 1st, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $236 million, while at the same time, related products for Ethereum, Ripple, and even Solana maintained net inflows. 🧭 This stark contrast may be telling us that the funds leaving are not completely saying goodbye to the crypto world but are instead carrying their bags, searching for the next more imaginative pasture.
In my view, Solana is the most valuable coordinate to observe in this migration. If $SOL can continue to hold fund preference amid market fluctuations, it may mean the market is trying to re-anchor a new narrative focus beyond the top assets. Of course, a single day's flow data is not enough to outline the full picture; the sustainability over the coming weeks is the real touchstone. Rotation often comes with noise but also hides opportunities. Please stay clear-headed and pay attention to risk control. $BTC $SOLToday ETH was really a bit hard to hold
Closed at 2424, because I was stuck for two days, and in the end it was because I didn't control my position well, my mindset started to get anxious, thinking to get out first.
But as soon as I sold, it directly pulled up to 2500... 🙂
But thinking about it, this time it was still my own problem.
When the position is too heavy, it's easy to be influenced by short-term fluctuations in judgment. It was clearly just a normal shake, but in the end it turned into "hurry up and run."
From a macro perspective, there is no particularly clear direction now.
Recently, US employment data has been weak, ADP added only 38,000 jobs in August, below expectations; Waller's speech today also eased market concerns about a September rate hike. (Reuters)
But this does not mean the Fed has turned dovish.
Inflation is still above target, whether to raise rates in September still depends on the nonfarm and inflation data later.
So my view on ETH is still cautious.
This rebound shows that market pressure has temporarily eased a bit, but whether it can continue upward still depends on whether the subsequent data can continue to support the logic of "declining rate hike expectations."
Not chasing for now.
At least this time I know why I couldn't hold on.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #FOMC Last Set of Data Before Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls
🔥 Brothers, at 8:30 PM this Friday, August Nonfarm Payrolls — the last heavyweight data before the FOMC.
The market expects new jobs to increase by 56,000-58,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. ADP gave a preview on Wednesday — private sector jobs in August only increased by 38,000, below expectations. ADP faltered first; will Nonfarm Payrolls follow suit?
The probability of a rate hike has surged to around 60%. After a hawkish comment from Waller, it briefly spiked to 68%, then slightly retreated after the ADP data, but the market has mostly priced in a September hike. Bank of America says Nonfarm Payrolls are just an "appetizer," with the September 11 CPI being the key to deciding whether to hike.
$BTC has pulled back from 81,500, currently around 77,000. 76,600 is a key support; if it doesn't hold, it might test 75,000; resistance is at 78,000-79,000, and a breakout requires supportive data.
If Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations (>80,000) → rate hike expectations heat up → BTC may retest 76,000 or even 75,000. If data disappoints (<40,000) → rate hike expectations cool down → BTC could bounce back to 79,000-80,000. But don’t expect Nonfarm Payrolls alone to decide everything; the September 11 CPI is the trump card. 📊
At 8:30 tonight, don’t bet your entire position on direction; manage your own risk. 👇
Let's chat in the comments: do you think Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will beat expectations or continue to disappoint?Brothers, take a look at the candlestick, this big bullish candle on ETH is quite interesting.
During the day it was barely holding around 2368, but at night it shot straight up to 2487 in one move. A 3.77% increase, which in this dead market is like a shot of confidence for the bulls.
But don’t get too excited yet. There’s a detail in this rally — Term Labs issued an announcement saying that all fixed-rate loan positions affected in the vault have been fully recovered. This acted like a calming injection for market sentiment. Plus, the US spot ETH ETF has seen net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days, totaling over $1.5 billion.
The problem is, institutions are buying but the price hasn’t risen much. ETH has still dropped 4.57% over the past 7 days. What does this mean? Some are taking the spot market risk, while others are dumping in the derivatives market. These two forces are battling hard around the 2400 level; whoever lets go first loses.
The bigger drama is tomorrow — at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the August nonfarm payrolls.
This is the last full employment data before the September 16 FOMC. August ADP was only 38,000, far below the expected 47,000. If the nonfarm payrolls disappoint again, the probability of a rate hike in September at 62.3% could plummet; if the data unexpectedly holds strong, the hike will be confirmed, and risk assets will take another hit.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $ETH $BTC Tonight $BTC broke above 81,200, rising over 4% in 24 hours.
Catalyst: Fed Governor Waller took a dovish stance, stating that if inflation continues to slow, he tends to keep rates unchanged. Traders' rate hike bets dropped from 63% to 60%, the dollar index plunged below 99, and gold surged simultaneously. The market is trading on "improving liquidity expectations."
Capital flow: On September 2, the US spot BTC ETF shifted from net outflow to a net inflow of $101.15 million, combined with chip accumulation in the 76,000-79,000 range. Bulls took advantage of the positive news to break through 80,000 in one move.
⚠️ There is about 1.05 million BTC held long-term in the 83,000-86,000 range, forming strong resistance; if Friday's nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations and rate hike expectations rise, BTC may quickly retreat. This move looks more like expectation repair rather than a trend reversal, so chasing above 80,000 requires caution.
$SOL $ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Ethena fee conversion vote unanimously approved, programmatic ENA buyback officially launched. The Ethena Foundation announced that the fee conversion proposal was approved with 100% support, and the programmatic ENA buyback is about to begin, gradually scaling up as protocol metrics and milestones are met. Driven by this, ENA rose over 10.5% in 24 hours, currently trading at $0.166. Ethena is a DeFi protocol that issues synthetic USDe, with revenue mainly coming from the price difference between the underlying asset's yield and hedged positions. Fee conversion refers to using the protocol's real income to buy back the platform token ENA, allowing token holders to indirectly share protocol cash flow—a classic DeFi token value capture mechanism. This vote was passed with 100% support, demonstrating the community's strong consensus on the buyback plan. According to the announcement, programmatic buybacks will be launched immediately, but not all at once; rather, they will gradually scale up as protocol metrics and milestones are met, meaning buyback strength is directly linked to protocol revenue performance rather than merely short-term market support. It is worth noting that this fee conversion is not an isolated event. On August 27, the Ethena Foundation announced four ecosystem adjustments: repurchasing locked tokens held by early investors, promoting further alignment of token and equity value, launching a governance proposal for revenue buyback of ENA, and canceling future monthly VC investor unlocks. Looking at the combination of these four measures, Ethena is systematically addressing two major long-term issues facing tokens: early-stage investmentBTC is almost touching $78,000, yet the market is starting to hesitate a bit.
But there's an interesting data point.
On September 2nd, the US spot BTC ETF suddenly recorded a net inflow of $101 million. The day before, it was a $236 million outflow, and on this day it turned positive again.
So what’s most worth watching now isn’t "whether BTC will break through."
Instead, it’s:
Who exactly is still buying at this level?
If it’s just retail investors chasing the rally, the price near $78,000 could easily start to shake again.
But if ETF funds keep flowing in, and BTC can gradually turn $78,000 into support, then the nature of the move is different.
Because this means funds aren’t chasing after a breakout.
They’re already betting before the market consensus is fully formed.
Of course, $101 million is still far from enough to draw conclusions.
The real answer depends on whether funds continue to come in over the next few days.
Breaking through isn’t hard; the hard part is who’s willing to keep buying after the breakout.
$BTC Another giant is about to buy 20,000 BTC: The corporate treasury arms race is fully escalating
The dominance of MicroStrategy as the king of corporate Bitcoin reserves is being completely broken by a new wave of Wall Street capital.
When asset management institutions publicly list 20,000 BTC on their purchase list, it means corporate asset allocation has evolved from Michael Saylor's aggressive experiment to a standard hedging tool favored by conservative funds and anti-ESG asset managers. Once the position is established, the ranking of the world's second-largest corporate Bitcoin holder will be instantly rewritten.
This move represents an extremely hardcore spot market liquidity drain for the crypto secondary market. From MicroStrategy to Strive, traditional capital is treating corporate treasuries as the ultimate stronghold against fiat currency dilution.
The freely circulating supply on exchanges is already at a historic low, and if tens of thousands of coins are locked up by large OTC buyers, the supply side will face an even more severe vacuum gap. But on-exchange traders need to clearly understand the institutions' expectation management tactics; such high-profile buy signals often occur near the end of large OTC block trades. Institutions do this to attract clients to their wealth management services, not to act as philanthropists in the secondary market.
Institutions buy coins to build a long-term moat with their balance sheets. Retail investors who blindly leverage futures to chase prices just because of the positive figure of 20,000 coins will often be violently shaken out after the news settles.
Understanding this corporate treasury arms race, will you hold your spot coins long-term alongside institutions, or wait for this buying wave to push prices up before cashing out?