Post

tvbee
tvbee
Influential Creator
Show original
非常值得关注的一个信号——纽约联储主席的口径,9月加息不是板上钉钉! ┈➤一个特殊的角色 其实纽约联储主席是一个挺特别的角色。 美联储,是美国的央行,他包括两部分,一部分是美联储理事会,这是央行的行政主体;另一部分是12家地区联储银行,负责地方金融市场。 美联储FOMC是负责制定货币政策的,包括美联储理事会的全部7名成员,和5个地方联储主席。 其中,纽约联储主席是FOMC的常驻席位,而其他4个席位在12个地区联储主席中轮流。 并且,纽约联储主席是FOMC的副主席。所以,FOMC是一个地区联储主席的代表人物,具有制衡美联储理事会的作用。 美联储理事会作为行政主体,相比之下具有强的宏观性和政治性,而地区联储与金融市场接轨更紧密、通俗的说更接地气。 所以纽约联储主席,具有在美联储具有平衡政治与金融的作用。 ┈➤一个特殊的背景 当下的美联储处于一个短期的比较特殊的环境。 前主席鲍威尔作为理事继续留任,虽然他已经表现得非常低调了,但是他留下来的主要动机就是因为川普提名沃什上任、防止美联储被川普过度干涉。 而沃什上任时间不长,暂时还没能建立起足够的威望和领袖力。 所以作为这个政治与金融平衡力量的FOMC副主席,这时候纽约联储主席的态度可能有不低的影响力。 ┈➤一个特殊的风险 虽然大家习惯去刻舟,但是世界上,现在的美债的风险,应该是历史上几乎没有过的。 加息会让美债收益率增加、融资成本增加,风险进一步加剧。 所以纽约联储主席威廉姆斯虽然被媒体概括是中立派,但是他最近发的言相对偏鸽一点,认为通胀见顶。 尤其是今天他的发言,在30年美债收益率飙升后。蜂兄怀疑,他考虑的是美债风险。 于是买10刀的9月不加息玩玩。
TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
Last year, after the Bitcoin fell to 80,000, New York Fed President Williams, who triggered a V-reverse, came out to send a message: after Wash's previous forward-looking guidance was canceled, the trend gradually shifted to a bill-based distribution, with regional Fed chairs leaking alternative guidance. The advantage of this is a distributed responsibility—if something unexpected happens in the market, no one can be held responsible. However, this news is actually a rehash, sourced from last Friday's interview. Based on his past performance, he seems more like a bold and forward-looking officer, and Friday's speech was actually explaining why the FOMC was holding back this time. This approach is still the typical shift of shifting responsibility or decision-making power onto data, thereby shirking the Fed's responsibility in case market turmoil occurs. From Trump's perspective, ensuring a steady rise in the stock market before the entire midterm elections is definitely the best plan. In theory, all he can do is pause on Iran and tariff issues to reduce inflation. Since he had recently made quite a bit of money from Japan and South Korea, he had an economic foundation to temporarily calm down on oil and taxes. However, from a practical standpoint, tariffs are also one of the foundations of his governance, so they cannot be conceded. On the crude oil side, Iran will not give in, so in the end, it will depend on the most overseas harvest money to distribute welfare benefits and buy votes.

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!