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Only after all the bottom-fishing longs of $ZEC are buried can it possibly rally$ATOM Niangxipi! The ATOM chart is giving me a blood pressure spike. Outside it's quiet, but inside the market it's dog-eat-dog; the 1.696 level was forcibly pushed up by capital, and the dog market makers are holding their sickles high. Don't talk to me about ecological narratives, purely technically this is a fake breakout. The volume can't keep up, the candlesticks are all upper shadows—this is obviously a shakeout to lure buyers. I've placed a short order, stop loss at 1.74, only breaking below 1.62 would feel truly comfortable. If you want to follow, don't just shout 'charge'; watch the lower levels carefully to set up ambushes, control your position size, and always use stop loss. Which side are you on this round? 👇👇👇Yesterday, a long position of mine was stopped out because I hastily went long without waiting for a bottom reversal signal. The original plan was to buy near the low around 83000, but it turned into catching a falling knife, and I got stopped out in less than two and a half hours. Moreover, this loss was worsened by slippage and fees cutting me twice more; my stop loss was at 82690, but the execution price was 82676. The stop loss was actually too tight, less than 1%, just a slight shake could have triggered it. $BTC This Wednesday, the August PCE Price Index will be released first. Currently, the core PCE year-on-year expectation remains around 3.3%, with a month-on-month increase expected at 0.3%, which is faster than the previous two months. The September non-farm payrolls released on Friday show greater divergence—Wall Street's average expectation is an increase of 100,000 jobs, but Bank of America only forecasts 60,000, considering August's strong performance an exception. This set of data is the biggest short-term variable for BTC. The market has already priced in about a 70% chance of a rate hike in October; if either employment or inflation exceeds expectations, this probability will continue to rise. The 10-year US Treasury yield is already above 5.2%, making the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets increasingly high. Conversely, if the non-farm payrolls unexpectedly weaken—for example, only increasing by fifty or sixty thousand, combined with no acceleration in core PCE month-on-month—the market will immediately reprice the rate hike path, and BTC is very likely to use this momentum to challenge previous highs again. My personal inclination is cautious. After the August non-farm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations at 162,000, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, showing a very clear stance. Until inflation substantially recedes, better data is unfavorable for BTC. Of course, this is just my view; the market will always leave room for surprises. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $ATOM $ATOM This market is a bit strange, it's quiet outside, but inside the order book it's dog-eat-dog. Around 1.698, funds are clearly dumping, the short-term structure is weakening, and the manipulative traders are aggressively shaking out positions. What's worth noting is that volume hasn't dispersed and sentiment is still tugging back and forth; this kind of position is the easiest to trick those itching to trade into catching a falling knife. I'm bearish, first watching to see if it can reclaim 1.7; if not, it will continue to grind. Also, the risk is clear: pure market play, sudden spikes and rebounds can happen anytime, so don't hold heavy positions stubbornly. Where are you guys watching for support? Those on the same page, drop your levels. 👇👇👇$0G pumped 14% and you still lost money? I have to admit, that's impressive. Seeing 0G shoot up like a rocket, I got impulsive and jumped in again. A 5x long position, perfectly bought at the peak of 0.2863. Now the screen shows a splash of green, floating loss of -8.38%, I wish I could just smack my thigh blue. Just yesterday I told myself to control my hands, today I got anxious seeing the surge. Wanting to double profits when winning, wanting to break even when losing, this kind of retail trader mentality is just insane. Brothers, should I just cut my losses and accept defeat on this trade, or hold on stubbornly waiting for it to surge to 0.31 again? Roast me hard in the comments, I'm about to lose my mind!#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 Newbies always open contracts incorrectly! Watching the K-line jump up and down, short or long, trembling fingers tap, in less than 15 minutes, already marked red at 50%, regretting the wrong opening! Regretting impatience, not watching the trend! Within an hour, watching 100x leverage, all in full position, margin rate still at 280%, the email is full of frequent forced liquidation warnings, anxious and restless. What to do! What to do! What to do! _________________________________ Is there a solution? Yes! Here we have to mention the art of adding positions, which also pulls the average price! Newbies adding positions often face a market that diverges too much from their expectations, thinking they've caught the bottom (or touched the top), but the market often continues down or breaks upward, and the so-called resistance level instantly fails. What to do? Besides cutting losses, the only way is to add positions to pull the average price. In this circle, it’s not about coaxing a girlfriend; don’t always think the market ends here. On the contrary, when the market comes, the exaggeration far exceeds imagination. Add a limit order to increase the position by 1.5 times at the next resistance level or add once every 2% drop. Of course, I’m just sharing my own view; actually, I prefer the second method, with 5 times as the upper limit. Generally, adding 5 times means the market has fallen continuously by 10%, which rarely happens unless in extreme cases. Next, RSI enters the oversold zone, waiting for a rebound. Of course, true beginners are more recommended to start with spot trading. $ZEC Oh my gosh, what a big surprise this morning, $ZEC actually dropped, breaking below 1400, now at 1386! This waterfall is really here, the entire crypto market's support is showing fatigue, $BTC fell below 83500 USD, $ETH and SOL are all dropping. Great, my short position opened at 909, the floating loss shrank from -826% to -524%, it really might break even and get out of the red! Let's look at the trend first. ZEC has been crashing down from above 1600 today, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 10%. From the high of 1698, this wave has already corrected nearly 20%. Previously, the long-short ratio had bears at 80%, now bulls are 20% against bears at 80%, bears are still the absolute main force. Some traders expect ZEC to trade between 1070 and 1734, with an average expected price of 1402 USD. On the news front, there's a key point: Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) is undergoing a 3-for-1 share split, with new shares allocated after the close on September 29, and trading at the split-adjusted price starting September 30. The split itself doesn't change the holding value but lowers the price per share and increases liquidity, which may bring short-term volatility. Technically, after breaking below 1400, ZEC's support to watch below is the 50-day moving average at 1360, and further down the 1220-1300 range. Resistance above is at 1500-1520; a rebound hitting this range and facing resistance is an opportunity to short for a quick trade. Short-term trading idea: holders of short positions can continue holding, with the first target at 1360 and the second at 1300. Those looking to go long short-term should wait for a pullback to around 1360 to stabilize before considering, with targets at 1450-1500. Whichever direction, set a good stop loss, take a quick profit, and never get attached to the trade. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Crude Oil Market: Trump uses the chart in Image 1 every day to "numb" the market. Last night featured another dramatic "dialogue," with Saudi media stating that Iran has agreed to stop uranium enrichment in exchange for the US easing sanctions, but this was later denied by Iranian officials. Trump also denied this morning any easing of sanctions on Iran or releasing frozen funds in exchange for Iran taking substantive measures on the nuclear issue. Crude oil prices fell from 96 to 91 yesterday, currently rebounding around 93-94. I'm holding short positions on crude oil at 96-95 and it's making me almost sick. Now the US and Iran are in a tug-of-war stage. The good news is no gunfire yet, and a third party is still mediating. The bad news is neither side is willing to give ground. Here's some experience: once negotiations become effective, don't miss the crude oil drop, at least a 10-point start, with a target directly at 83-85. If hostilities resume, abandon all short positions. [Personal trading opinion only, not investment advice] $CL $PONS current market situation: continue holding for now. This is a typical one-sided sharp decline market, with the overall trend still downward. Long-short ratio: retail investors are frenzied, while large holders are restrained. OKX retail long-short ratio is as high as 2.56, Binance retail is 1.37. Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing. Large holders' long-short ratio by number is 1.86, but their position long-short ratio is only 2.31. Fundamentals (long-term advantages and critical weaknesses): Deflationary mechanism is real and effective: PONS uses about 80% of protocol fees for buyback and burn, having already burned about 29%-30% of the total supply (originally 1 billion tokens, now about 700 million circulating). No unlocking pressure: PONS is 100% fully circulating, with no future VC unlocking selling pressure. Strong protocol revenue: daily revenue once reached $1.34 million, with annualized revenue around $202 million. Core weakness: token value heavily depends on the on-chain popularity of Robinhood Chain. Once Meme trading enthusiasm cools down, protocol revenue and buyback burn scale will shrink accordingly. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Lance | September 29 $ETH rally meets resistance and pulls back to confirm, key support battle and range response Silk Road [Today's Silk Road] Entry: Buy on pullback at 2600–2620 to stabilize, or consider shorting at 2680–2700 resistance. Stop loss: Long positions below 2570, short positions above 2730. Take profit: First target 2660–2680, second target 2720–2750. [Core Conclusion] The Federal Reserve raised rates unanimously in September to 3.75%-4%, with one more hike expected this year. High U.S. Treasury yields suppress risk appetite. Geopolitical tensions push oil prices higher, tightening market sentiment. After four consecutive weeks of net inflows into ETH spot ETFs, there was a net outflow of $140 million, institutional accumulation slows, and the fear and greed index fell to 69, cooling bullish sentiment. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 [Battle Details] Current price near 2620. $534 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with $431 million long liquidations and only $103 million short liquidations, bulls repeatedly harvested. The 2600–2620 zone is a previous heavy chip concentration area, 4-hour moving averages turned bearish, short-term downside risk remains. Do not blindly short near 2600 today; wait for a rebound to 2680–2700 resistance before considering shorting, target 2620, break below 2600 target 2550. If volume supports a hold above 2720, abandon the short Silk Road strategy immediately. #ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化 The leader has something to say NVIDIA is adding $150 billion to its stock buyback program, with a total authorization reaching $235 billion, planned to be executed before fiscal year 2028. The stock rose 1.5% in pre-market trading. What does this indicate? The AI leader has very strong cash flow. In the first half of the year, free cash flow was 70 billion, with 40 billion spent on buybacks. Now increasing the buyback shows confidence in future performance. But for the crypto market, this is a signal of capital diversion. As NVIDIA strengthens, tech stocks attract capital, and liquidity is drawn away from Bitcoin. AI capital expenditure remains high, and risk capital continues to stay in hardware and cloud infrastructure. My Bitcoin long position at 82,800 was closed at 84,000 yesterday, taking a loss of $1,200. This week's PCE and non-farm payroll data are key; no directional bets before the data. No matter how big NVIDIA's buyback is, it cannot change the environment of Fed rate hikes and high interest rates. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop-loss orders set. Good luck.Don't just focus on the K-line; the flow of chips is the real trump card of Bitcoin Bitcoin's price fluctuations affect sentiment, but price is just the result; capital flow is the cause. A recent signal worth noting is that the US Bitcoin spot ETF has had net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, totaling nearly $3 billion, setting a new weekly record this year. This is not short-term speculation driven by retail sentiment but institutional funds continuously and orderly building positions. A more critical change is happening on-chain: Bitcoin is moving from exchange hot wallets to fund custody accounts. Chips are transferring from short-term traders to long-term holders. This means the selling pressure structure is changing, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. Institutions buy Bitcoin not to bet on tomorrow's price movements but to allocate it as an alternative asset. So when the price falls, the bottom is not a vacuum; there is capital supporting it. But be clear: institutional entry does not mean a bull market will start immediately. They are not short-term players and won't rush in just because of a single bullish candle. Coupled with the continued attractiveness of US Treasury yields and returns on idle cash, funds will not all flood into the crypto market. Bitcoin remains the anchor of the entire market. When watching it, don't just look at price ups and downs; pay more attention to who the chips are concentrating with. Prices will fluctuate, but don't let the fluctuations make decisions for you. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 📡 As soon as I opened my eyes this morning, the market showed three abnormal signals A quick glance at the market this morning made me feel that something was off today—three abnormal signals, I'll point them out one by one Signal one, near $SOL 120, abnormal because "it moved before Bitcoin did." Major coins usually follow Bitcoin, but SOL surged above 120 with volume yesterday, and today it retraced with low volume without breaking down, showing a particularly decisive independent trend. On-chain NFT and DeFi transactions are flowing back, and spot ETFs have continuous net inflows—real money is supporting it from two directions. The strong smell of capital entering early; holding above 120 targets 128. Signal two, near $DOGE 0.098, abnormal because of "extremely low volume." Just a hair away from 0.1, yet it has been sideways with low volume for several days—meme coins best reflect retail sentiment, and low volume means bulls and bears are hesitating. But extremely low volume often precedes a directional choice: either a volume breakout above 0.1 ignites the meme sector, or it looks for support downward. Signal three, near $XAUT 4277, abnormal because "interest rates can't suppress it." Long-term interest rates keep rising, gold should be under pressure, but it is holding steady near previous highs without falling—indicating buyers are consistently absorbing supply, and selling pressure can't push it down. After consolidating at 4277, a break above 4300 signals a new upward wave; a retracement to 4250 without breaking is strong. The tug-of-war between high interest rates and buying support means gold stands firm on both sides. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Looking at these three signals together: SOL is entering early, DOGE is waiting for direction, and gold is quietly strong. 9.29 Sora $SOL The rebound touched the 118.0-118.5 range, then directly continued to short. Sora couldn't hold up either, breaking down along with the broader market, dropping straight from the high of 120.71 to 116.87, with a low of 116.25, creating a recent new low. The shorting momentum is very strong. The 118.0-118.5 above is the support level that was just broken, now firmly turned into a resistance zone. The price rebounds to this area will be suppressed by selling pressure and cannot break through. Below, watch the 115.5-115.0 support; once effectively broken, a new round of decline will fully open up space. In terms of operation, enter short positions in batches when the price rebounds to 118.0-118.5, with a stop loss set above 120.0. Target the 116.0-115.5 range. Those wanting to go long should not rush in; the downtrend is already established. It's safer to wait until the decline is sufficient and the market stabilizes before taking action. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 🟠 BTC golden cross reappears, but don't directly rely on historical gains 🔴 Historical comparison BTC has signaled a "golden cross" again, with the previous two occurrences corresponding to gains of 2241% and 1126%, while the current round is about 49%. Just looking at the numbers, it is indeed very attractive. 🟡 Scale effect However, the BTC market size, liquidity, and participant structure in 2017 and 2021 are completely different from now. The same technical signal, based on a larger market cap, usually faces percentage growth limits due to scale. 🟢 What to really watch So the golden cross can be considered a bullish technical signal, but it should not be simply interpreted as "the historical gain percentage indicates the remaining potential this time." Going forward, more attention should be paid to trading volume, capital inflows, key resistance breakthroughs, and whether pullbacks are effective. 📌 **Key point:** The direction can be bullish, but the magnitude cannot be copied from history. History serves as a reference, while the current price structure and capital validate the market. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Starlink｜The real pressure in this round of decline is not just the international situation Many assets are falling together in this round, which cannot be simply attributed to the US-Iran situation or geopolitical risks. The greater pressure actually comes from US inflation, interest rate hike expectations, and the continuous rise in US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield is continuously rising now, meaning the global capital pricing benchmark is readjusting. Gold has already fallen to around 4100, steadily declining. Previously relatively good allocations like HYPE, ZEC, SOL still show no obvious signs of stopping the decline. On the contrary, ETH has recently performed relatively stronger. BTC, although relatively weak, has not truly broken down and is still oscillating within a key range. So in this market, I am no longer focused on any single piece of news. Instead: Can US inflation come down? When will US Treasury yields stop rising? When will market expectations for further rate hikes truly cool down? Before these things show obvious changes, it won't be easy for many assets to directly resume their trends. So there is no need to rush to conclusions about the market now. Look at gold in relation to yields, Look at US stocks in relation to valuations, Look at BTC in relation to key support, Look at high-volatility assets to see if capital is returning. When the market truly changes, prices will naturally tell us. First look at macro, then capital, and finally direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Account Position Divergence Radar $DOGE top accounts are more long, position distribution is bearish: top accounts long-short ratio 1.690, top positions long-short ratio 0.772; overall market accounts long-short ratio 3.408; price down 0.29%, position value change +0.43%. $WLD top accounts and top positions are both bearish: top accounts long-short ratio 0.738, top positions long-short ratio 0.879; overall market accounts long-short ratio 2.303; price down 1.64%, position value change -0.39%. The structure of the top group’s account numbers aligns with the position distribution. $XRP top accounts are more long, position distribution is bearish: top accounts long-short ratio 1.325, top positions long-short ratio 0.873; overall market accounts long-short ratio 2.589; price down 0.13%, position value change +0.93%. DOGE, XRP: The side with the majority of account numbers is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution. DOGE, WLD, XRP: The overall market account structure is biased long, which also differs from the top positions’ bias.$ETH ETH reserves surpass 6 million coins, Bitmine's asset scale reaches $17.2 billion According to Woofun AI, blockchain infrastructure company Bitmine Immersion announced on September 28 that its ETH reserves officially exceeded 6 million coins, marking a new phase in the company's enterprise-level crypto asset allocation. Woofun AI's compiled data shows that as of September 27, the total ETH recorded on the company's balance sheet was 6,001,302 coins, accounting for approximately 4.9% of the total circulating supply of 122.1 million coins across the network. Just in the past week, acquisitions added 17,362 coins, driving the total asset value—including digital assets, cash, and tradable securities—up to $17.2 billion. This scale surpasses many competitors, making it the world's second-largest cryptocurrency reserve holder after MicroStrategy (MSTR.US). Since launching its systematic purchase plan on June 30, 2025, the weekly investment strategy has remained effective, with 5.07 million ETH deployed for network validation. Based on the market price at the end of the week, this staked asset portion is valued at approximately $13.7 billion.Solana led the decline today, which is a different story from $BTC and $ETH — the core development team confirmed today that the Alpenglow upgrade is still on the testnet, with no set date for the mainnet, completely contradicting the previous expectation of "mainnet launch in late September." SOL surged from 112 to 124 in the past few weeks, largely driven by this expectation building long positions. Once the expectation was disproven, event-driven longs immediately closed their positions and exited, which is the direct reason $SOL dropped to 116.61. At the same time, on-chain monitoring detected a transfer of 500,000 SOL (about $60.5 million) to Binance, a typical sell pressure signal. The decline in BTC and ETH follows a different logic: strong economic data pushed up inflation expectations, US Treasury yields came under pressure and rose, combined with Middle East geopolitical tensions supporting the US dollar, all together lowering the market's risk appetite for high-beta assets — as shown in the chart, BTC fell back to 83,006, ETH retracted to 2659.42, both passive declines without new bad news. The difference is this: SOL's story was disproven, while BTC and ETH are facing a cooling environment. Without a set date for Alpenglow, SOL is unlikely to have an independent rally; BTC and ETH are waiting for a turning point in US Treasury yields, not a project announcement. #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化 $BTC is pinned in a 2,400-point cage, and the most crowded trade in the market is losing money while being right about the range. One trader's 79,388 short sits underwater by nearly four thousand points, stuck between 82,600 support and the 79,000 level the bears keep chanting like a mantra. That is not a sob story. It is a map of where the pain is parked. Look at the tape. Price pushed to 84,999 and turned — one dollar shy of 85,000. That is not a coincidence, it is a liquidity magnet doing exa$ZEC is flashing a positioning split that most momentum traders are reading backwards. Longs are sitting on roughly $123 million in unrealized profit, yet the loudest marginal voice in the market is short. That combination — crowded winners plus fresh bearish conviction — is exactly where liquidity gets repriced fastest. The detail that matters is the cost basis: long-term holders are anchored near 1,087, leaving a gap of several hundred points between their entry and current price. That cushion隔夜盘面一句话：涨不动了。 BTC 最高冲到84374没站住，夜里滑到82979，24小时 -1.17%。ETH 原地踏步，-0.02%。SOL 最弱，-3.2%，最低117.2，122上面套的人估计正骂街呢。 费率挺有意思。BTC 0.0049%，ETH 0.0076%，SOL 0.0011%，还都是正的，但薄得像纸。多头连利息都不太愿付了，这温度不对劲。BTC 持仓量OI还有28196个币、约23.4亿美元——价格阴跌持仓不减，这口气悬着，谁也不想先割肉。 今天看三件事：黄金夜里跌到4144美元，避险情绪熄火了，资金往哪跑；SOL 117这个位置能不能稳住，是短线情绪试金石；费率要是再被砸转负，多头可就连装都懒得装了。 不喊单，只说数据。今天你更看好多头先撤还是先死扛？评论区聊聊。DOGE has a market capitalization of $14.69 billion, ranking 12th in the global cryptocurrency market. Placed within a total market cap of $2.6 trillion, this means it firmly holds a spot in the top 0.5% tier — its scale itself is DOGE's strongest asset. Market cap rankings reflect existing consensus. Among thousands of tokens, only a handful can maintain a top position long-term, and DOGE is one of them. The $14.69 billion market cap is not the result of a day's hype but the outcome of years of trading accumulation: full coverage on mainstream exchanges, ample trading pairs, and deep order books. For holders, this scale offers a practical benefit — easy entry and exit. When large funds rebalance, tokens with insufficient depth tend to crash their own prices, but DOGE's liquidity can absorb such volume flows. A high ranking also carries implicit value: attention is a scarce resource. Institutions selecting targets, media allocating coverage, and new capital entering the market often start from the top rankings. Being 12th means always sitting at the main table, unlikely to be pushed out of mainstream view. This position continuously attracts new attention, creating positive feedback. Of course, scale addresses the question of "survival quality," not directly "price increase." $DOGE's volatility is never ambiguous, so position management remains essential. But looking at the bigger picture, an asset that can hold a top 0.5% position in a $2.6 trillion market at least proves one thing: it is not a fleeting visitor but a permanent player in this market.The US spot SOL ETF attracted about $188 million last week, but the current price dropped to around 116.6, down about 4.5%. Institutions entering the box shouldn't be taken as a direct buy signal. Here's what we see: As of the week ending September 25, the US spot Solana ETF had a net inflow of about $188 million, nearly the strongest week since its listing; Bitwise's BSOL accounted for about $128 million, roughly 68%. On Friday alone, it set a net inflow record of about $86.67 million, with cumulative net inflows rolling up to about $1.605 billion and a scale of about $1.964 billion. However, the spot price fell from the weekly high near 118.9 to about 116.6, still about 60% below the all-time high near 293. Simply put: money is flowing into the box, but the on-exchange price is first digesting selling pressure, so inflows and price gains may not align. My view: last week's inflows are real, but don't use weekly data as a forced reason to chase today's bearish candle. I'll keep an observation position for now and won't chase this move; invalidation would be a volume-driven break below the weekly low near 112, or a firm hold above about 122. Do you think it will first grind down to 112 before catching, or will inflows directly push it back to 125? $SOL $BSOL $ETH #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #USIranContinueNegotiationsOnHormuzOpeningConditions$BTC pulled back to 83,000, institutional buying is still holding strong BTC surged to about $87,000 before retreating, currently fluctuating between $83,000 and $84,000, with a slight pullback in the last 24 hours. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to increase holdings, buying about 1,665 more BTC last week. Macro pressures remain significant: high US Treasury yields, ongoing rate hike expectations, US-Iran geopolitical tensions, with risk assets generally under pressure. Altcoins are more volatile, but on-chain data shows spot traders are accelerating their shift to altcoins, with some funds already showing signs of an "altcoin season." Short-term pullbacks coexist with institutional accumulation; the key going forward is whether continued ETF inflows can offset macro pressures. What’s your take? Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity or better to keep watching? Why can't 83000 be pushed down? 1️⃣ Short sellers' ammunition is exhausted: Current trading volume has shrunk drastically (only 67.93k USDT per candle), and the shrinking volume with a slow decline indicates there are hardly any active sell orders in the market. Shorts want to push down, but have no chips, so they can't. 2️⃣ Bulls firmly defend the bottom line: The candlestick shows that the previous dip touched a low of 82,556.6, directly forming a long lower shadow. There is a large amount of buying near 82,996.6 (current support level) absorbing the sell-off; whenever it dips below, it is pulled back. 3️⃣ Technical indicators recovering: The KDJ indicator (K:26.8, D:25.1) is at a low level, and the fast line has started to turn upward, about to form a golden cross. This indicates that the short-term downward momentum has already weakened, and there is a need for a technical rebound. 4️⃣ Institutions buying the dip: The news that "Strategy increased holdings by 1,666 BTC last week" shows institutions are scooping up with real money. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 ZEC short position market far exceeded expectations 🛫 Didn't expect the seasoned target to still be conservative! ZEC market dropped straight from 1599 to 1382 The decline space far exceeded predictions, capturing over 210 points The seasoned trader also fully took the entire market move, pocketing over 4800 u $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Let's summarize what you can do in terms of trading. I'll first slightly revise my views this time. Previously, I told everyone that Bitcoin can go long and gave me a spot to add positions; Now I've noticed that a short signal for Bitcoin has appeared, but the current level isn't very good, so I'm still bullish. However, I recommend adding positions between 81,000 and 80,000, or if you're more conservative, just open positions there. Other coins may fall along with Bitcoin for a while, so everyone should play according to the situation. The price levels haven't changed, and the take-profit and stop-loss options haven't changed. I just think the price may weaken for a while before there is a chance for a rise afterward, so it's still important to operate with discipline. Current prices are approximately: Bitcoin 83,030, Ethereum 2,666, Solana 117.2, Dogecoin 0.0928, Ripple 1.477. Looking at the 24-hour period, Bitcoin fell about 0.5%, Ethereum about 0.8%, Solana about 1.4%, Dogecoin about 1.2%, and Ripple about 1.3%. Last night, Bitcoin briefly climbed above 84,000, Ethereum above 2,700, but it was pulled back in the morning. Let's review the trading strategies for each coin again. Bitcoin: Still bullish. Position additions are now between 81,000 and 80,000; Conservative friends should also open positions within this range, don't chase now. Stop loss unchanged: 78,000 for the very short term, 75,000 for the medium to long term. Target 90,000 or even 100,000, subjective to personal preference. EthereumGenerally speaking, this junk also belongs to the Doomsday Car series, and once it pulls, it signals that this market rally is about to pause! Why did FIL suddenly shoot to the top of the trending searches? It's not just a simple price surge! This sudden burst of FIL's popularity is mainly due to the simultaneous resonance of “supply contraction + price anomaly + new narrative + capital game.” The most critical factor is the change in supply-side expectations. The market is focusing on the end of locked token releases, which could significantly reduce FIL issuance pressure; meanwhile, the price quickly rose from the low point in mid-September, with increased trading volume directly attracting short-term capital attention. Narratively, directions like AI data storage, RWA, and decentralized storage have renewed the imagination space for FIL. So behind FIL topping the trending searches, the essence is that expectations, price, and capital together have pushed attention upward. But the hotter the hype, the more you need to guard against overheated sentiment. Next, the key is to watch whether trading volume can sustain and whether the price can hold key levels. Please consider carefully on your own! $FIL Liquidated nearly 23 million ZEC spot, but this transaction incurred a loss of about $540,000. According to Deep Tide TechFlow on 9/29 citing Onchain Lens: The address Lee Goon Wang (0xf5629…) sold about $22.96 million ZEC spot through approximately 1,740 transactions, realizing a loss of about $542,400; historical cumulative profit still exceeds about $7.44 million. Previously, Odaily/multiple news sources reported: the same entity sold about 15,000 ZEC, approximately $23 million, on Hyperliquid with limit orders, with the order price about $30 (around 2%) lower than the market price. This is a new spot liquidation transaction by a different entity compared to recent ZEC long-short and whale position posts. Selling ≠ necessarily continuing to dump later; monitoring tags ≠ entity confirmation; realized loss ≠ historical total profit and loss zeroed out. At the time of writing, OKX ZEC is about 1386 (24h open about 1582). Not investment advice. $ZEC #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver $BTC remains range-bound at $83K–$85K despite nearly $3B in ETF inflows over six days. Demand is strong, but the breakout is still missing. $ETH is hovering near $2,680, with $2,742 resistance and $2,650 support. My $2,712 short is still partially open. $SOL continues to lead, moving from $117 to $122, but chasing the move could expose traders to a pullback. In this choppy market, patience may be better than constantly flipping position#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 The upcoming week can be described as the first macro super week of Q4, no longer limited to just the two core reports of US PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls. Multiple events such as domestic PMI, OpenAI developer conference, and Micron earnings are densely packed, spanning global inflation and employment, domestic economic conditions, and the fundamentals of the AI industry. Multiple main themes will unfold simultaneously, creating a resonant impact on US stocks, US bonds, gold, and the crypto market. First, let's clarify the key timings and market consensus expectations. At 20:30 Beijing time on September 30, the US will release the August core PCE price index, with the previous value at 3.3% and market expectations at 3.4%. As the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicator, if the core PCE year-over-year rises to 3.4%, it means inflation is rising again, breaking the previous downward trend. This will directly confirm the Fed's concerns and strengthen market pricing for maintaining high interest rates or even further rate hikes. At 20:30 on October 2, the September nonfarm payroll change data will be released. Last month's previous value was 162,000, and the current market expectation has been sharply lowered to 107,000. It is clear that institutions have already priced in a significant weakening in employment. Lowering expectations itself is a double-edged sword: as long as the final data exceeds 107,000, even if it falls compared to August, it will still be interpreted as the labor market remaining resilient, the economy not cooling down, which is bearish for risk assets.BTC 前脚回踩到 8.3 万美元，后脚现货 ETF 资金又传来积极信号，市场甚至重新开始讨论减半周期。按理说利好不断，价格应该走强，但现实却是：消息很热，盘面却很冷。 真正压制市场的，可能并不是币圈内部，而是接下来美国宏观数据带来的不确定性。 本周市场重点盯着两份数据：**PCE 通胀数据和非农就业报告。**PCE 是美联储重点关注的通胀指标，而非农则直接影响市场对后续利率路径的判断。如果通胀继续偏高、就业依然有韧性，市场对更长时间高利率的担忧就很难消退，美元和美债收益率一旦走强，BTC 这种高波动风险资产自然会承压。 反过来，如果通胀和就业数据明显降温，市场重新押注政策转向，美元压力缓解，资金风险偏好回升，BTC 才更容易打开上行空间。 所以现在的 8.3 万美元，更像是一个宏观数据公布前的等待区。 再看长期逻辑，比特币的供给结构并没有发生变化：总量上限 2100 万枚，新增供应仍然有限；现货 ETF 和机构资金持续改变市场筹码结构，企业配置 BTC 的趋势也没有完全停止。下一次减半虽然还要等到 2028 年，但供给稀缺逻辑依旧存在。 短期看数据、利率和美元，长期看供需、资金与周期$RIVER is a stablecoin truly worth paying attention to; it shouldn't just be about putting the US dollar on-chain, but about letting users start forgetting which chain they are actually on. This is also why I've recently been re-examining @RiverdotInc. River's Omni-CDP concept is straightforward: users can collateralize assets like BTC, ETH, BNB on one chain and mint satUSD natively on another chain. The real significance of this isn't just another stablecoin, but that it begins to change the fundamental path of cross-chain capital flow. In the past, users first considered which chain their assets were on, then how to bridge them, and finally where to use them. If chain abstraction truly works, the order should be reversed: first decide what I want to do, and the underlying layer handles the asset and liquidity paths. This is also why I think @River4fun is worth watching alongside. One handles capital and asset flow, the other integrates user contributions into the ecosystem, and together they form a complete on-chain economic cycle. When stablecoins start to serve as an intermediate layer for cross-ecosystem flow, do you think the next phase of DeFi competition will still focus on single-chain liquidity? @Galxe $RIVER @River4fun @RiverdotInc @wallchainBlood flowing like a river.🩸 $XAU broke down, $BTC is slipping down, altcoins generally down 5%-8%. No excuses, it's just liquidity drying up + macro bearish resonance. Don't try to catch falling knives, every cut is fatal. The only strategy now is one word: short. Or, turn off the software and go for a walk. In this market, not losing is winning. Good night, gamblers.🌙前几天我还判断，BTC大概率会围绕 87,000—76,000 区间震荡上行，但随着市场进入关键节点，现在反而需要提高警惕。 真正让我关注的，并不是短线几百美元的涨跌，而是新旧筹码的换手是否足够顺畅。 尤其是在市场对加息的预期重新升温之后，BTC回撤幅度目前还不到2%，说明下方承接力度并没有想象中那么弱。 所以我已经把止损位逐步上移到成本附近，对我来说，目前持仓的风险已经明显降低。 我的思路还是比较明确： 87,000附近作为底仓，84,700附近考虑第一次补仓，同时用高位空单做一定程度的对冲。 这样即使接下来出现剧烈波动，也有一定的应对空间。 现在BTC反复在 83,000附近磨盘，我不想提前猜多空。 接下来一两天，市场很可能会给出真正的方向信号。 目前我的策略就是：继续持有，严格控制风险，目标先看77,000附近的止盈位置。 究竟是在蓄力等待突破，还是已经进入趋势反转阶段？ 答案可能很快就会出现。 📌 本周重点关注：PCE + 非农就业数据 📌 美光财报临近，AI存储需求或成为市场关注焦点 📌 美伊继续磋商，霍尔木兹海峡开放条件仍可能影响能源与风险资产情绪 #BTC #比特币$SOL is currently very weak. Yesterday it bottomed weakly at 118 and rebounded, but it lost momentum as soon as it touched 120. This indicates that the current buying pressure is very weak, and the overall trend is still downward. Next, watch the key level at 115. If it breaks, it could drop to 108-110, which is a weekly high point and should provide very strong support. $BTC is very strong today. Compared to SOL, Bitcoin is consolidating sideways while SOL is trending downward. Bitcoin has very strong support at 82500, but the main focus is on the trend after the US market closes. After 83800, it fell with the opening of gold trading, so today's trend has emerged. 82500 probably won't hold for long BTC下方，约 10.47亿美元多单集中在 80,516美元附近；上方则有约 9.85亿美元空单盯着 88,520美元。 ETH同样危险：2,562美元下方约6.36亿美元多单，2,828美元上方约6.49亿美元空单。 这就是杠杆市场最残酷的地方： 价格突破 → 触发清算 → 清算放大波动 → 更多仓位被迫离场。 真正的趋势甚至还没完全形成，杠杆却已经提前埋下了炸药。 宏观环境也没有给出明确答案。 一边是现货ETF连续多日保持强劲资金流入，近7日累计净流入接近 30亿美元；另一边，美国长期国债收益率仍在高位，融资成本持续压制市场流动性。 所以现在，没必要急着猜多空。 真正值得盯住的，就是这四个位置： 📍BTC：80,516 / 88,520 📍ETH：2,562 / 2,828 哪一边先被击穿，哪一边的清算可能就会变成推动行情加速的燃料。 本周还有PCE和非农等关键数据，叠加美伊继续就霍尔木兹通行问题磋商，波动率可能进一步放大。 现在最重要的不是证明自己看对了，而是别让杠杆把自己淘汰出局。 $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #BTC现MicroStrategy is buying again, so why is $BTC still falling? Last week, Strategy MicroStrategy bought 1,665 $BTC, spending about $143 million, with an average price of $85,681 per coin. Strive hasn't been idle either, adding 1,107 coins. Together, the two companies bought 2,772 coins in one week. Seeing this news, my first reaction was also, shouldn’t Bitcoin show some movement? But today $BTC is still hovering around $83,000, already below the purchase price of this batch. Buying so enthusiastically, yet the price goes down, it’s indeed a bit painful. But there is a timing difference here. Yesterday’s announcement was about coins already bought last week; the announcement doesn’t mean another $237 million rushed into the market today to catch the dip. Current sell orders still need to be matched by current buy orders, and this week’s PCE and non-farm payroll data haven’t been released yet, so funds wanting to enter are hesitating. I see the treasury’s increased holdings as a good sign, at least Strategy and Strive are still buying with real money. As for whether the price can rise in the short term, first let’s see if BTC can reclaim $85,000. Even big players will have unrealized losses after buying, so we don’t need to rush to chase just because we see the words “institutional accumulation.” #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 9.29 Trading Diary From 50 to 100k$, striving to reach the first goal of 500k this month, with two trading days left and a net value around 147. Yesterday, I bought into SOL and LTC; the entry points weren't ideal, currently showing slight unrealized losses. Hoping for the expected pullback and upward momentum in the next two days. Additionally, the multi-day consolidation of XAU and XAG has broken down. Today, I plan to short on the rebound, betting this wave will open downward space. Good luck!The average price at which SanDisk's CEO cashed out was 1574. The price you see now is 1716. When he sold, it was $142 cheaper than your price. The person who knows this company best chose to exit at 1574. And you are still waiting for 2400 at 1716. Reality won't change just because you pretend not to see it. On September 17, CEO Goeckeler cashed out 53.27 million at an average price of 1574. Five days later, Rosenblatt issued its first coverage with a target price of 2400. The person who undersThe most eye-catching thing on today's market is HBAR It rose nearly 30% in 24 hours, and the trading volume directly quintupled During the same period, BTC dropped nearly 2%, Ethereum is also going down, and the entire L1 sector is in the red. Only it is running Looking back, the catalyst is not just air On September 23, The Hashgraph Group in the Hedera ecosystem partnered with IBM They directly listed a chain-based identity tool called IDTrust in the IBM Cloud App Catalog What it does is provide on-chain verifiable identity for AI agents, directly presented to IBM enterprise clients On the same day, Hedera also proposed NVIDIA's AI security open platform, saying the council has secured a seat. AI + enterprise adoption are both sounding simultaneously Additionally, Canary's HBAR ETF has already been listed on Nasdaq, ticker HBR. Institutions wanting to buy no longer need to take detours But the daily overbought signal has already reached 81. The short-term surge is so fierce that no matter how good the story sounds, chasing the high carries the risk of getting trapped. You can watch the excitement, but don't follow blindly. $HBAR ETH Last night, it rebounded to the 4H-level downtrend line around 1:15, then was immediately pushed back upon hitting resistance. This aligns with ETH's basic pattern of oscillating downward seeking bottom support before another upward move. Currently, there is enough time, but this week there are PCE and labor data guidance, so it will still hesitate around 2626. Overall, there are signs of stabilization. However: it is not the time to go long yet. ETH's price is still hovering near resistance, which is risky. If you want to go long, please do so around 2640 on altcoins today, or directly buy ETH to go long. The next support for ETH is at 2566. If it can stabilize smoothly there, you can increase your position significantly. 我們來看一下瑞波幣的部分。 先說明這一輪的看法：比特幣的做空訊號出現了，我覺得其他幣種可能會跟著比特幣一起下跌一段，所以大家見機行事。瑞波的點位都沒變，止盈止損也沒變，還是要紀律操作。 現價約 1.477，24 小時跌了大約 1.3%。以 OKX 來看，24 小時最高 1.532 左右、最低 1.466 左右。昨晚反彈到 1.53 附近被壓回來之後，早上又往下探到 1.466。 操作建議的部分，看法不變：現在的價格到 1.7 之間，都可以分批補空，1.7 止損，止盈看個人。 大盤如果先走弱一段，對瑞波空單是順風，但越順越要守紀律。我的建議是：把你給 XRP 空單的總倉位切成幾份，現價放一小份，反彈到上面的賣壓區再放一份，越接近 1.7，每一份越小。這樣做的好處是，就算中間出現新聞帶出來的急拉，你的平均成本跟總虧損都還在計畫裡。另外，現在價格剛好踩在一條小低點上，短線有可能先反彈，所以已經有獲利的人，可以自己決定要不要先分批落袋。止損一定要掛在交易所上，不要放在心裡。見機行事，不要上頭。 技術面上，一樣看 4 小時圖。瑞波上禮拜衝到 1.65 附近，圖上標為弱高點，之後反彈到 1.62 U Sister 9.29 Tuesday $BTC Analysis Current price: 82992.8 Rebound shorting range: 83800‑84300 Stop loss: Above 84800 First take profit: 82500, second take profit: 81600 Market analysis: Technically, after a high of 87385, the highs continue to decline, the hourly chart shows a descending staircase, and the rebound strength weakens with each attempt, with bullish momentum gradually exhausting. From the news perspective, the market continues to speculate on the Fed's future policy expectations, with rate cut expectations swinging back and forth, and no clear short-term positive catalyst; institutions have not recently entered with large-scale sustained buying, lacking incremental funds to drive the market. Currently, the overall market is in a digestion phase after positive news has been fully priced in, with more of a battle among existing funds. At this stage, it is not recommended to short directly at the current price; wait for the price to rebound to the resistance zone before positioning short orders. If the price effectively holds above 84800, it means the bearish logic is broken, and the short plan should be abandoned immediately. With news fluctuating repeatedly and increased market volatility, be sure to manage your position size carefully. $ZEC touched $1,382, the short squeeze structure is shifting to bear pressure According to the current OKX spot market, $BTC is at $83,020, down 0.84% in 24 hours; $ZEC is at $1,400.97, down 10.75%, with an intraday low of $1,382. ZEC perpetual positions are about $164 million, up again from about $157 million earlier, with a positive funding rate. Previously, price and positions declined simultaneously, indicating bulls retreating; now price remains weak but positions rise, indicating new positions entering. A positive funding rate means longs pay fees; if the rebound fails, these new longs may become the next round of liquidation selling pressure. ZCSH's latest single-day net outflow is about $8.12 million, with a cumulative net inflow of about $298 million; the ETF channel has also shifted from continuous acceptance to redemption testing. ZEC's trading volume in the past 24 hours is about $105 million; volume has expanded but price remains low, indicating sellers have not yet exited, so the bottom cannot be judged solely by the rise in positions. The 3-for-1 stock split on September 30 only adjusts shares, not increasing underlying demand; NU7 still awaits code completion and the October 6 testnet. If ZEC's rebound sees positions decline, it looks more like shorts or trapped longs exiting; if price and positions rise simultaneously, it indicates new funds are taking over again. $TIA current price 0.4277, down 13.73% in 24 hours, MA5=0.43884 has crossed below MA20=0.451175, RSI=28.9 approaching oversold, MACD histogram -0.001091 still bearish, price near the lower Bollinger Band at 0.429478. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment and the MACD green bars have not converged, indicating the downtrend structure has not yet been repaired, but RSI below 30 and funding rate at -0.0018%, with shorts paying longs, suggests short-term short squeeze pressure is high. Here is a reusable method for market analysis: to judge if the trend is healthy, look at the order of "Price—MA5—MA20", then check if RSI and MACD are synchronized. Currently, price < MA5 < MA20, which is a standard bearish structure, so do not rush to go long just because of oversold conditions; however, the negative funding rate combined with RSI < 30 often corresponds to the last drop before short exhaustion, a "bearish trend with extreme sentiment" combination, suitable for waiting for stabilization signals rather than chasing shorts. In terms of operation, I prefer to lightly go long near the lower Bollinger Band: entry 0.4200–0.4280, because this range is close to the lower band and RSI is oversold; take profit 1 at 0.4390 (MA5 resistance), take profit 2 at 0.4510 (MA20 resistance); stop loss set at 0.4120, breaking below the lower band means the bearish structure continues. 💡 $320 million stolen by an "unreleased bug": Technical insights from the Liquid incident On September 6, about 4000 BTC (approximately $320 million) were withdrawn from the Liquid network reserve wallet, nearly 95% of the wallet's balance. The most surreal part: it wasn't a Bitcoin network issue, nor was there a signature key leak. The vulnerability was hidden in a cache key collision bug in the Elements codebase—it made it into the main development branch but never appeared in any official release version. The validation cache was "poisoned," causing illegal requests to be misjudged as legitimate, and the peg-out mechanism "released" real BTC "as designed." The attacker claimed to be a white hat: after Blockstream confirmed the fix, 3400 BTC (about $270 million) were returned, leaving around 600 BTC as "reward." Lessons: ▪️ Audits cover only released code; development branches, build processes, and supply chains remain blind spots ▪️ Cases in 2026 repeatedly prove: breach points are always outside audit scope (Taiko private key mistakenly uploaded to GitHub, Drift pre-signing inducements...) ▪️ For users: understanding "what exactly this transaction authorizes" before interaction is more important than anything else This is also why Cat Wallet integrates transaction parsing and pre-risk warnings into the product: if you don't understand the signature, don't sign. #Web3Security Ethereum is very likely to experience high-level consolidation with an uncertain direction this week, with a more cautious short-term outlook. The current price is around $2,650—$2,700, having just been resisted and pulled back near $2,800, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy. Key ranges Resistance: $2,780—$2,820 The key level to reclaim this week Support: $2,600—$2,670 Short-term bull-bear dividing line Important support: $2,540—$2,570 Breaking below indicates a clear short-term structural weakness Three possible scenarios Bullish scenario: If ETH rallies with volume to reclaim $2,800—$2,820 and closes above on the daily chart, it may test $2,950—$3,000 in the short term. Bearish scenario: If it breaks below $2,600, especially losing $2,540—$2,570, it may further test the $2,400—$2,500 range. Signals to watch this week Changes in US Treasury yields and interest rate expectations will affect risk assets; if liquidity expectations weaken, ETH’s upward momentum will face more resistance. Only bullish if it holds above $2,800; beware of deeper pullbacks if it breaks below $2,540.
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