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$BTC starts the week with a fresh sweep of the lows.
Price went for the weekend liquidity + the 82.8K lows as discussed yesterday.
I actually like this move because Bitcoin is heading towards interesting POI's again.
We consolidated for a couple of days building liquidity on both sides. Now we swept the lows and longs might come in play soon.
My preferred POI for longs is the 82K region, it's a retest of the HTF range-high and top of the consolidation that caused the last pump. 2008 High School Student
Live trading challenge from 850u to 8000u
Day 36
Current principal 1215u #This week faces key Nonfarm and PCE data
The market has been fluctuating these days, but there are several key levels everyone must pay attention to!!!:
1. First resistance: 87374
This round's high point, important daily-level resistance. After a previous surge and pullback, a large amount of trapped positions have accumulated here; to break through again requires volume support.
2. Secondary resistance: 84346
24-hour high point, short-term minor resistance, upper boundary of the 4-hour consolidation range.
1. First support: 82500
Recently tested low multiple times, short-term strength/weakness dividing line at 4-hour level; holding here maintains high-level consolidation.
2. Strong support: 80094 (MA180)
Medium to long-term moving average support; if 82500 breaks, the next target is around 80000, an important defense line for bulls.
3. Bottom strong support: 74896
This round's starting low point, the baseline of this bullish structure. Everyone is welcome to discuss #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Brothers, this afternoon $BTC has surged quite strongly, currently back to 83,884. It climbed all the way up from the morning low of 82,556, and on the 15-minute chart it looks like a golden cross has formed, now stuck just below the 84,000 level.
But don’t rush to call a reversal. Look at the volume—it hasn’t obviously increased, more like an emotional recovery after a sharp drop, not a real breakout. The resistance zone between 84,000-84,400 is heavy; until it breaks above that, it could be slammed down again at any time.
Don’t forget, big money is just playing guerrilla tactics before the data release. At times like this, chasing the rebound is the biggest taboo. Wait for the data to land and see if it’s a fake breakout or a true bull trap #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #ZEC plummets 12%! Whale long positions are just $20 away from liquidation
At 10:30 AM, the news came out that ZEC dropped 12% in a single day, but the whale longs are still holding strong!
The 24-hour low hit $1379. Despite such a large drop, only one million-dollar long position was liquidated.
There are still over $20 million in large long positions, with liquidation prices around $1358, just $20 away from the current price. A slight further drop will trigger concentrated liquidations.
By 12:30 PM, in less than 2 hours, the price was pulled down to a bottom of $1355, wiping out all the $20+ million long positions. So the earlier 100+ point drop was just a light breakfast, and the final 20 points were the main course of delicacies.Are we seriously turning bearish on $BTC over a 5% correction back into the resistance we just broke?
We break resistance and everyone wants higher. We come back to retest it and suddenly people are questioning whether they should be bearish.
This is the retest I laid out as the likely scenario before another push higher. Broken resistance between $81-$83K being tested to see whether buyers will now defend it as support.
Standard procedure. 🚨 $SNDK on H4 looks like a Head and shoulders breakdown
This can go towards 1675, and then look to bounce as it is currently below both SMA50 and EMA55 on H4. A bigger retrace might see it test SMA200 near 1610-1620.$SOL
When the market weakens, can SOL continue to maintain relative strength?
High-frequency trading, stablecoins, and consumer applications provide activity. If on-chain revenue expands in sync with spot volume, the strength may continue.
If the hype relies on short-term speculation, revenue declines, and support at high levels is lost, I will switch to a defensive stance.The first time I got into this stuff, it was because I heard you could get rich quick.
I got impulsive and bought some $BTC.
Right after buying, it dropped, and I was glued to my phone every day.
Watching while eating, sneaking peeks at work, like I’d lost my soul.
Later I realized it wasn’t the coin’s fault, I was just too impatient.
I held some $ETH, wanted to sell when it rose a bit, panicked more when it dropped a bit.
Couldn’t hold on, sold and then regretted it, just torturing myself.
Then I tried $SOL, it was so fast it made my scalp tingle.
It would shoot up in minutes, then crash down in minutes.
If you have a weak heart, really don’t touch this stuff.
Now I hardly check groups.
I treat the trade calls like comedy.
Those showing off profits mostly want you to take over their position.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it’s all traps.
I’ve seen people get insanely cocky after making money.
Also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their family.
This circle changes three times a day.
So I only use spare money, losing it won’t affect my meals.
If I make money, I don’t get arrogant; if I lose, I don’t make a fuss, as long as I can sleep well.
Don’t mistake luck for skill.
Don’t treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market punishes the stubborn, and I’ve long surrendered. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 My Previous #BTC Thesis Is Playing Out. After Breaking The Previous LH + LL Structure, Bitcoin Confirmed A HTF CHoCH With A Daily Close Above $82,850. $BTC Then Expanded To $87,368. Now The Key Question: Is $87,368 The New Higher High? Not Confirmed Yet. For HH Confirmation, I’m Watching A Daily Close Above $80,108 (Inducement) After The Current Retracement Structure Develops. If HH Gets Confirmed, I’ll Be Watching For A HL Reaction Into: 🔹 FVG: $68,883–$65,019 🔹 Bullish OB: $63,700–$62,500 ThDelivering takeout, enduring the sun, wind, and rain, every order's income is earned through hard work and time.
Looking at the empty $NEAR orders in my hand, with unrealized profits displayed on the screen, that urge resurfaces—to pour the money saved from deliveries into increasing my position all in, betting on a complete turnaround this time.
50x leverage is tempting enough, but I've personally experienced the cost countless times.
The memories of holding positions, cutting losses, and being forced out are still vivid. Unrealized profits are just numbers on paper; without closing the position, they don't belong to you. I know all too well how often $NEAR spikes sharply against the trend—any sudden reverse surge can instantly wipe out all profits, even the principal.
I had clearly planned a long-term spot strategy: waiting for the right price points, waiting for interest rate cut signals, and gradually deploying spare funds.
But once inside the contract market, greed keeps tempting me, always wanting to seize the current market wave for a big win.
Thinking carefully, delivering takeout is for living; hard-earned money shouldn't be gambled on high leverage.
Winning is joyful, but once you lose, the savings earned through sun and wind vanish into thin air.
Unrealized profits are not real profits; only when you cash out do you truly have it in hand. $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% BTC market remains volatile, the rebound resistance at 84000-85000 is blocked and pulls back, support for rebound at 82500-83000, quite dull. Running short-term trades, no break no chase!
Intraday rebound at 84500-85000, open short position, target down to 83500-82000-80500, previous high double top resistance at 87500 to add short once, stop loss at 88300
ETH rebound at 2700-2720, open short position, also repeatedly pressured recently, previous high 2810 to add position, target down to 2650-2600-2550
Personal opinion, for reference only! #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH South Korea delays crypto tax, not because they don't want to collect it
The crypto tax scheduled to start in January 2027 has now been halted by insiders.
The ruling party and opposition parties together are demanding a delay.
The original rule says: the law isn't passed yet, so don't collect the tax first.
They are referring to the "Basic Digital Asset Act" which hasn't been released.
The trigger moment: there's no plan on how to track money earned from overseas exchanges.
Whether losses can be deducted is also not written.
Missing either of these two means the tax can't be fully collected.
A common misunderstanding: this is not a relief for coin holders.
It's that the tax authorities themselves are not ready with the tools.
Where it is delayed once, it usually gets delayed again.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $ETH $ZEC DAILY UPDATE | 9.29 ⚠️ Give this daily chart a few seconds... Is ZEC building a real base, or is this simply another relief rally before the next flush? Many traders will look at the pullback and think: “Discounted price = time to buy.” But the current data says patience may be better. A large whale recently moved **25,001 ZEC worth roughly $37.8M** onto the market after accumulating around $425, locking in a very large profit. Another Hyperliquid trader, Boomer, also cut more than $31M in Core drivers of the decline: geopolitical shocks + macro pressure
① Trump rejects Iran's ceasefire proposal (key trigger)
Last weekend, Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without ruling out the possibility of further military action. Brent crude oil immediately surged over 3%, briefly breaking above $108/barrel. Oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → US Treasury yields climb → risk assets come under pressure, a clear transmission chain.
② 10-year US Treasury yield returns above 5.2%
The 10-year US Treasury yield overnight returned above 5.2%, hitting the highest level since 2007. The US dollar index remains near 101, a two-month high. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets has reached its highest point in nearly twenty years.
③ Market loses structural anchor after options expiration
The $15.6 billion quarterly options expiration on Deribit on September 25 has completed. Previously, market makers' hedging operations "pinned" the price near $85,000; after expiration, this derivative structural support disappeared, making the price more susceptible to macro news shocks.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.666, top positions long-short ratio is 0.788; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.152; price increased by 0.06%, position value changed by +0.30%. The side with the majority of accounts is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
$WLD top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.743, top positions long-short ratio is 0.877; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.282; price increased by 0.54%, position value changed by +0.20%.
$SUI top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.659, top positions long-short ratio is 0.870; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 1.877; price increased by 0.41%, position value changed by -0.41%.
DOGE, WLD, SUI: overall market account structure is long-biased, which differs from the top position bias.
WLD, SUI: the account number structure and position distribution of the top groups are aligned.$ETH UPDATE | 9.29 ⚡ ETH dipped into the $2.62K–$2.63K area yesterday, then bounced back above the broken triangle structure. The move above $2.70K didn't get enough follow-through and quickly turned into a rejection wick. So for now, breakout confirmation is still missing. Macro pressure remains in play: • Higher US yields = risk-off pressure • Stronger DXY = headwind for crypto • ETF flows remain supportive • Headlines continue driving short-term volatility KEY LEVELS 👇 Support: $2.62K–$2.65K有不少兄弟问我：“能不能直接给一个明确的进场位置？” 我的回答还是：不会直接给。 市场上有三万个人，就可能有三万种交易思路。每个人的资金、风险承受能力、交易周期和策略都不同。 如果你自己判断当前价格符合你的交易逻辑，那就按照自己的计划执行。交易最重要的不是别人给你一个数字，而是你要知道： 📌 为什么这里做多？ 📌 为什么这里做空？ 📌 风险在哪里？ 📌 如果判断错误，什么时候离场？ 有些人只为了流量直接喊多喊空，却很少解释背后的逻辑。这样的一个点位，对别人未必真的有意义。 我每天在这个星球分享和记录，也是为了监督自己、不断复盘，在市场里一点一点成长。 交易不是跟随别人，而是逐渐建立属于自己的判断体系。 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC$BTC around $83.0K.
Lost $84K. Testing $82.8K.
$83.2K failed. Next $80K. Reclaim still $85.2K.
$ETH around $2,660–$2,686.
$2.60K is the floor. $2.77K is dead until a close.
$SOL — around $117–$119.
Lost $121. $117 is the line. $110 if it fails.
Monday was the print. Tuesday is follow-through.
Don’t buy the first bounce. $80K / $2.60K / $110 decide if last week was real.$LAB has dropped 99.8%, and I actually started going long 😂
From over 25 yuan,
all the way down to 5 cents now.
With a drop like this,
any normal person would want to run.
But instead, I’m starting to get a bit itchy to act.
The market cap is only a few tens of millions now,
the trading terminal is still running,
and fee income is still coming in.
Of course, I know about those past issues with LAB.
So I’m not crazy,
just a small position.
I just want to see:
For a coin that’s been trampled to the floor by the market,
is there anyone willing to give it another chance?
Something that’s dropped 99.8%, a rebound would be really interesting 😂
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH $SOL
Tuesday. Still fading.
$BTC around $83.0K.
Lost $84K. Testing $82.8K.
$83.2K failed. Next $80K. Reclaim still $85.2K.
$ETH around $2,660–$2,686.
$2.60K is the floor. $2.77K is dead until a close.
$SOL around $117–$119.
Lost $121. $117 is the line. $110 if it fails.
Monday was the print. Tuesday is follow-through.
Don’t buy the first bounce. $80K / $2.60K / $110 decide if last week was real.*Bitcoin Latest News｜September 30 $84,132 Chinese*
*1. Market: Trap Zone Consolidation*
$BTC currently at *$84,132*, range $83,174-$85,050, 1-hour converging descending channel, resistance at *$83,800 (trendline+MA100)*, support at *$81K-$82K*
Breaking above $85K will squeeze $2 billion shorts aiming for $90K, breaking below $83.5K targets $80,006 → $74K
*2. Liquidations: Double Kill*
24H *$187 million with 81,000 liquidations*, longs $89.9 million vs shorts $97.1 million, stop-loss chasing wiped out
*3. Real Money: Strongest in a Year*
- *BTC ETF weekly inflow $2.4 billion, a 1-year high*, total assets $160 billion
- *SOL ETF $188 million breaks record*
- *Strategy 1665 coins @$85,681*, total holdings 847,666 coins
*4. This Week's Bombshell*
*Nonfarm + PCE on Friday*, #USTreasuryYieldHigh US bond new highs + gold down 3%, whether bearish is exhausted or bullish pending, avoid heavy positions before data
*Operation:* Short at $83,750-$83,890 resistance, stop loss $84,346, target $80,006, expect consolidation before holding $81K.$ZEC longs above 1560 were bloodied down to 1357! Gongming gives you a practical self-rescue plan
The worst pain is not being trapped, but cutting losses at the lowest point and chasing highs during the rebound.
ZEC dropped from 1699 to 1357, your 1560 long was squeezed for 160 points. This wave is a concentrated profit-taking after doubling in September, plus a long liquidation stampede. Near 1357, there are over 17 million long liquidation lines; breaking it triggers a chain explosion. Now it rebounds to 1400, but the trend is broken, don’t bet on a V-shaped recovery.
Rescue plan:
For those with extra funds: Don’t rush to add. Wait for a pullback to 1357-1370 to confirm stabilization, then add a small position to lower the average cost. When it rebounds to 1450-1480, first close the added position, then reassess the base position.
For heavy holders without ammo: When it rebounds to 1450-1480, grit your teeth and reduce by 1/3, then buy back at 1370-1380. Do two rounds of high sell and low buy to lower your cost.
For small funds that can’t hold: Reduce or exit near 1450. There is dense liquidation below; breaking it triggers chain explosions, don’t stubbornly hold on.
Gongming’s view: This wave of ZEC is a profit-taking stampede, not a project problem. But the short-term trend is broken; rebounds are for reducing positions, not for recovering losses. What you need to do is reduce your position to a level you can sleep well, not fantasize about 1560 at 1400. Follow Gongming, bring your position, and I’ll help you figure out how to rescue. #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 Who is exiting, who is waiting for 2400
1574 is the average price at which SanDisk CEO Goeckeler cashed out; 1716 is the price you see right now. He left earlier than you and at $142 cheaper. The people most familiar with the company choose to exit, while the market is still waiting for 2400.
The timeline is ironic: on September 17, he cashed out $53.27 million; five days later, Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a 2400 target. One speaks with real money, the other tells stories with financial models. The directions are opposite—who do you trust?
The macro environment is also unfavorable: the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.23%, the highest since 2007; the probability of a Fed rate hike in October is 64.8%; oil prices have broken $100, and inflation stickiness exceeds expectations. In such an environment, the first to be drained are often the high-valuation chip stocks propped up by AI narratives.
The market situation is also tough. SanDisk rallied from 989 to 1800 and then consolidated for a long time; the MACD red bars have almost disappeared, and all moving averages are pressing overhead. Not falling doesn’t mean it will rise; the longer the consolidation, the stronger the momentum once a direction is chosen.
Those chasing highs and cutting losses only look at price; I only look at logic: chips, interest rates, position. The CEO selling is not a verdict but a warning sign—when the story is too expensive, first ask who is selling.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% *Bitcoin Latest News｜September 30 Chinese Version $84,132*
*1. Current Price and Liquidations*
$BTC *$84,132*, today $83,174 - $85,050
24h liquidations *$187 million / 81,000 people*, long positions $89.9 million vs short positions $97.1 million, both longs and shorts wiped out to deleverage
*2. Real Money Buying, Hits 1-Year High*
- *BTC Spot ETF: Weekly inflow $2.4 billion, hits 1-year high*, full year net inflow +$800 million, total assets $160 billion
- *SOL Spot ETF: $188 million record inflow*, 13 consecutive weeks of inflows, total assets $1.5 billion, supporting $120
- *Strategy: Bought another 1,665 @$85,681*, total holdings 847,666, cost $75,437
*3. Key Decision Zone $81K-$82K LPS*
The line you mentioned: *Hold $81K-$82K → target $90K+, break below → target $74K-$76K FVG gap*
Currently $84,132 stuck in $83.5K-$85K neutral trap, breaking above $85K has $2 billion shorts waiting to be squeezed, breaking below $83.5K means double liquidation of longs
*4. This Week's Focus #PCEAndPayrollsWeek*
Micron earnings on Tuesday, Friday *Nonfarm + PCE* $ETH 9.29 Ethereum Market Judgment
Establish long positions in the 2665-2670 range;
First take-profit at 2702, reduce positions in batches;
Second take-profit at 2730, close all positions;
Stop loss set at 2630, exit immediately if triggered. #GoldBitcoinMarket# #EthereumChain# #ETHWhaleMovements# #Gold#The first time I bought crypto was because I saw a colleague making money.
He said just hold $BTC with your eyes closed.
I believed him and invested a bit, but it dropped right after I bought.
At that time, I couldn't even afford to order takeout.
Later I realized it wasn't the coin's fault, I was just too greedy.
I held $ETH, wanted to sell as soon as it rose a little.
When it dropped a bit, I regretted it, constantly contradicting myself.
To be honest, I just had no own judgment.
Then I tried $SOL, it was scary how fast it moved.
It surged up in minutes, then dropped in minutes.
People with weak hearts really can't handle it.
Now I don't check groups anymore.
I treat trading calls like comedy.
Those showing off profits mostly want you to take over their positions.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it's all traps.
I've seen people get insanely arrogant after making money.
Also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
This circle changes three times a day.
So I only use spare money; losing it won't affect my meals.
If I earn, I don't get cocky; if I lose, I don't make a fuss, as long as I can sleep well.
Don't mistake luck for skill.
Don't treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market specializes in humbling the arrogant; I've long accepted that. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 SharpLink Gaming staked another 42,074 ETH today, worth $112.8 million.
In total, this company holds 892,000 ETH, about $2.4 billion, and has earned 27,945 ETH in staking rewards alone, equivalent to $75 million.
This company, which transitioned from gambling, has essentially become a machine that raises funds through stock issuance to buy and stake ETH.
What’s worth noting is not how much it has earned, but that this "publicly listed company hoarding coins + earning staking interest" model is being replicated—it turns ETH staking yields into assets that can be priced on the open market and ties equity with on-chain earnings.Last October, everyone was waiting for an interest rate cut in December, thinking the market would keep rising. But on the 11th, there was a huge crash. Later, when BEAT unlocked, everyone thought it would crash again, but instead it was violently pulled up nearly 60% to harvest profits. Many times, you really have to control your hands. Losing money is because you can't control your hands or your emotions ₿ $BTC｜震荡整理 BTC 当前在 $83K 附近横盘，市场正在等待新的催化因素打破区间。 🟣 $SOL｜相对强势 SOL 维持在 $121–122 附近，短线相对强度仍然存在。 💰 SOL ETF｜资金持续流入 过去 5 个交易日累计流入约 $188M，市场正在关注资金是否继续向 SOL 相关资产轮动。 😨 恐惧与贪婪指数：74 7 日均值 72，30 日均值 67。市场热度持续升温，同时追高风险也在增加。 📍 关键价位 BTC 支撑：$82.5K 阻力：$86K SOL 支撑：$116.2 阻力：$120–124 若有效突破该区域，市场将进一步关注 $140 附近。 保持耐心，关注量价变化与关键支撑阻力。 @OKX #DailyOrbit$USELESS Right now this coin is awkward because there's no follow-through on the pump and no support on the dump. The main players either make a strong push to the top to liquidate all shorts at once, or the slowest runners end up in the front row. Let's see which big holder can't resist jumping the gun $MU 美光将于 9月30日美股盘后公布财报，这次我最关注的依然是 HBM需求、DRAM/NAND价格以及下一季度指引。 AI行情已经不只是GPU的故事—— ⚡ HBM决定AI加速器的数据吞吐 💾 DRAM支撑服务器高性能运算 🗄️ NAND/SSD则承接AI数据中心不断增长的存储需求 目前美光此前给出的Q4营收指引约为 500亿美元±10亿美元，非GAAP EPS约 31美元±1美元；同时HBM4已经进入高量出货阶段。 更值得注意的是，三星最新表示，HBM占全球DRAM晶圆产能的比例明年可能接近 30%，高于目前约20%。这意味着AI内存需求增长的同时，传统DRAM供给也可能继续受到挤压。 👀 所以财报真正值得盯的不是单纯“营收有没有超预期”，而是： HBM需求 → DRAM价格 → NAND/SSD需求 → 2027年指引 如果$MU释放更强的AI内存需求信号，$SKHYNIX、$SNDK等相关板块也可能受到市场情绪带动；反之，如果指引低于高预期，热门内存股的波动可能会被放大。 AI需要算力，但算力同样离不开内存。 GPU负责计算，Memory负责喂数据，Storage负责承NVIDIA $NVDAB increases its buyback by $150 billion, raising the total to $235 billion. On the surface, this is to boost market confidence, but essentially it is using real cash to hedge valuation pressure.
The market's concern is not about GPU sales stagnation, but whether the massive capital expenditure on AI computing power can continue. Large model vendors are frantically purchasing chips, but the growth rate of capital expenditure will eventually slow down. Forward PE keeps declining, and the market is starting to price with a cyclical stock logic; relying solely on the story can no longer drive the stock price.
Buybacks can tighten the float and lift EPS. Even if revenue growth slows, performance can be supported by cash flow, turning the AI industry heat into secondary market liquidity.
This move is very smart: model developers are still burning money and struggling to monetize, while NVIDIA, the seller of computing power "shovels," holds a large amount of cash flow to continuously repurchase and retire shares.
However, risks also exist. The buyback plan continues through fiscal year 2028, representing a long-term defensive strategy. If downstream AI applications fail to materialize and major companies cut chip purchases, relying solely on capital operations cannot sustain long-term growth.
At this stage, the $150 billion buyback is enough to prove that NVIDIA holds the largest profit and pricing power in the AI industry chain. #英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Just organized the operational ideas for three targets: two are suitable to follow the plan, one needs further observation.
$BTC is currently around 83,600, with a 24-hour pullback of about 1.5%. It's not untouchable, but don't chase it; waiting for a pullback to buy in batches is more comfortable. The short-term defense is at 82,600 below, with resistance at 84,800-85,000 above. Treat it as consolidation before the Nonfarm/PCE data.
$ETH is around 2,675, with immediate resistance at 2,750-2,800. The Cancun expectations and L2 enthusiasm haven't fully translated into price momentum. If spot/ETF inflows aren't strong, avoid heavy bets before a breakout.
$ENA is stuck in the 0.27-0.29 range, with previous momentum fading and short-term support weak. About 17.2 million tokens will unlock on October 5, creating real selling pressure. We can only wait for volume and structure confirmation; small trials are okay, but no heavy positions.
Strategy: gradually enter BTC and ETH positions, pacing slowly; ENA is high risk, follow only after signal confirmation. With US Treasury yields high and macro data uncertain, being steady is more important than rushing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Your analogy is spot on, *74 is not a peak, it's a temperature*.
*The truth about the number 74:*
The Fear & Greed Index today is *74 (Greed), yesterday was 75*. Many people see 70+ and shout to run, but that's a misinterpretation.
1. *What does it measure:* Volatility (25%) + Volume (25%) + Social media + Bitcoin dominance + Trend. Currently, 76% of the components are price momentum and volume, so $BTC is oscillating around $84,132 with volume still present, naturally it stays high.
2. *It's not a predictor, it's a thermometer:* You're right, the 7-day average is 72, the 30-day average is 67, *the temperature is rising, not cooling down*. This means it's not the false heat from the $86K peak day, but the enthusiasm after $81K-$82K LPS held, with people willing to chase prices.
3. *What does a 74 high mean:* High doesn't mean a drop is coming, it means *those entering now are momentum chasers*. When many chase prices, that's why you see $BTC $187M double blowup / 81,000 people liquidated — everyone chases up and then tramples down at $83,174. The "small drop, big loss" feeling you experience comes from this.
*What really matters is not 74, but the day it turns down:*
Your last sentence is key.
- *Who is still buying when 74 drops to 60?* The ones truly buying now are #BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hitting a near one-year high of $2.4 billion and #$ETH 在 2782 做空，2706 平仓，最终赚到 223U。 没想到平仓之后，ETH 又继续回落到 2666。 刚关掉仓位的那一刻，其实就感觉行情可能还会继续跌。 但当时担心已经到手的利润回吐，所以选择了离场。现在回头看，多少有点“把筹码还给市场”的感觉。😅 再看看 $UNI： 📈 5.744 做多 🚀 最高来到 10.95 📉 但当时没有选择退出 ➡️ 现在回落到 8.59 有时候，真正让人难受的不是亏损，而是看着曾经已经到手的利润，一点一点回吐。 市场没有后悔药，交易只能复盘。 赚到的钱不等于已经锁定的利润，下一次更重要的是提前做好退出和风险管理。#anthropic's prospectus may value it over $2 trillion 2 trillion valuation, 42 billion loss, 518 billion computing power bet: How to view Anthropic's IPO
First, look at the books. Last year revenue was 4.6 billion, a 12-fold increase, quite impressive. But operating loss was 8 billion, computing power expenses 7.3 billion, burning 1.6 for every 1 earned. Cash on hand is 20.3 billion, at this burn rate it won't last long.
The real risk is ahead: computing power commitment expenditure for the next few years is 518 billion, 112 times the annual revenue. This is not business, this is betting one's entire fortune on the future.
A 2 trillion valuation corresponds to a 436x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 revenue. To sustain this price, revenue in 2028 must reach 190-200 billion. A 40+ fold increase in three years, do you believe it?
Another detail: nearly a quarter of revenue comes from two clients, and there are no long-term contracts. If clients leave, the story ends.
IPO may be delayed until after the midterm elections in November. My view is simple: this is a classic case of primary market valuation inversion to the secondary market. Institutions bought in at 965 billion, expecting to sell at 2 trillion upon listing. Will you take it?
If you want to bet on the AI narrative, first think clearly about who will pay the 518 billion bill. $ANTHROPIC #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ BTC 如果没有有效跌破 $83K，而 ETH 仍能守住 $2.6K，那么目前仍可以视为处于较大的震荡区间之内。 短线下跌虽然带来压力，但是否形成真正的趋势反转，还需要观察关键支撑、成交量以及后续价格表现。与其被单日波动影响，不妨保持耐心并做好风险管理。 至于我的 $PONS，这次跌得确实比较狠，真的有点难受 😂 其他资产都快回到前高了，你们两个这是在玩“跷跷板”吗？🎢 #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USIranNuclearTalksGoldman Sachs' roughly $100 billion money market fund FTIXX is now open to institutional crypto companies through LYNQ, running on a private L1 built on Avalanche.
This news is easily underestimated: it’s not just another story of "traditional funds buying crypto," but rather a traditional financial cash management tool running for the first time on a private instance of a public blockchain.
What institutions need is not full decentralization, but an auditable, programmable, and controlled ledger.
The most likely path for tokenization to truly take off is this kind of "private L1 + regulated assets" combination, rather than moving everything onto a public chain.🛢️ Middle East crude exports just climbed back to roughly 80% of pre-war levels
Iran and US officials reportedly met through mediators today to push a ceasefire deal
Iran is waiting on a US response to its proposal — unfreeze Iranian assets, lift oil sanctions, end the port blockade. In return, Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and starts nuclear talks $BTC
Here's the part worth staring at: Hormuz traffic is still only about 62% of pre-war levels
$ETH Can be adapted to a more "breaking news + data analysis" style in Chinese, with a bit of a trading perspective added:
BTC Massive Transfer Breaking News
🚨【Breaking】Strategy transfers 3,568 BTC, valued at approximately $297 million
According to on-chain data, Michael Saylor's Strategy recently transferred about 3,568 BTC, which at current prices amounts to nearly $297 million.
Notably, these BTC were transferred to wallet addresses related to Fidelity's custody system, prompting market speculation: could this be related to over-the-counter (OTC) trading or asset custody adjustments?
⚠️ At present, the wallet transfer alone cannot confirm that Strategy is selling BTC.
If later confirmed to involve large OTC transactions, it may not immediately create direct selling pressure on the market, but for short-term traders, the capital flow remains a key focus.
$BTC's next key points to watch: 1️⃣ Whether these BTC will continue to flow to trading platforms; 2️⃣ Whether BTC price can hold key support and reclaim upper resistance.
Whale transfers ≠ immediate dumping; first, let's see how the on-chain funds move next.📊Tuesday Afternoon Jingyi Gold Strategy Rebound can still be shorted
Gold bulls continue to collapse, after dipping to 4110 yesterday it entered low-level consolidation. The daily chart shows a large bearish candle breaking support, rebound strength is weak, bears dominate the market, no sign of a bottom yet. Previously indicated that after breaking 4200, downside space opened, current key support is at 4100.
Short-term maintain bearish view, but avoid chasing shorts at low levels, the rebound correction phase is not over yet.
4-hour chart: short-term resistance at 4180, strong resistance at 4200-4216, support at 4100. Market is oscillating downward, wait for rebound pressure before choosing short positions, patiently wait for entry opportunities.
Trading suggestion
Short gold at 4160-4180, add shorts on rebound at 4200-4215, stop loss at 4223, target 4100, hold if broken.
$XAU #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 英伟达这波又砸1500亿美元回购，总额直接干到2350亿。很多人觉得这是老黄在表决心，其实没那么简单，这就是用现金给自家估值兜底。$BTC $ETH $ZEC 市场现在怕的不是显卡卖不动，而是怕大厂砸在算力上的天量资本开支哪天突然踩刹车。大模型厂商已经砸了几千亿买芯片，Capex增速不可能一直这么猛。当前向PE越压越低，资金就开始按周期股给它打折，光靠老黄在台上喊“AI革命”已经拉不动股价了。 回购最狠的地方在于直接改变供需和EPS分母。自由现金流这么充足，不断把流通盘缩回去，哪怕未来营收增速从爆发期掉到平稳期，EPS照样能被硬抬上去。对链上和二级市场的资金来说，这等于把AI资本开支的热度直接变成了流动性垫子。 这招确实漂亮，直接把英伟达和那些烧钱做大模型的软件公司拉开了距离。做大模型的还在愁变现周期长、边际成本高，卖铲子的已经拿着真金白银的净现金流开始大规模注销股票了。 但别太上头。回购计划拉到2028财年，说明这不是短线拉盘，是一场长期防守战。如果下游AI应用始终跑不出能闭环的商业化爆款，大厂一两年后开始砍芯片预算，光靠资本运作也扛不住增长逻辑的坍塌。但至少现在英伟达用这1500One third of people are bearish. This number caught me off guard for a moment.
It's not that the price dropped by one third, but that bearish contracts account for such a large proportion of options trading.
Simply put, among those betting real money, one in three is wagering on further decline.
What’s even more painful is another figure. Volatility has dropped to around 35%. What does that mean? People don’t even believe in "big swings" anymore; they quickly sell at the slightest volatility.
Greeks.live puts it bluntly — this looks like a mid-bear market rebound.
I don’t like hearing that, but the data is clear.
Outsiders might think, it’s just a percentage. But think about it, even those betting on volatility are too lazy to bet, how dull must this market be.
To be honest, what’s most feared at times like this isn’t a drop, but that you think it’s the bottom, only for it to be just a halftime breather.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $HYPE The first time I encountered this stuff was while scrolling through short videos.
I saw others showing off their orders, saying $BTC could turn around.
I got impulsive and almost threw in my meal money.
Luckily, I chickened out at the time and only bought a little.
After buying, it dropped, and I cursed myself every day for being reckless.
Later, I held $ETH, nervous whether it would rise or fall.
I couldn't hold on, sold it, and then regretted it—purely self-inflicted pain.
Then I tried $SOL, which was as fast as riding a rocket.
It shot up in minutes and crashed down in minutes.
If you have a weak heart, really don't touch this stuff.
Now I hardly check groups anymore.
Nine out of ten teachers shouting orders want to cut you in.
The profit charts people show off are photoshopped to look more real than real.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts—it's all traps.
I've seen people get insanely arrogant after making money.
I've also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
In this circle, friendships turn sour faster than flipping a page.
So I only use spare money; losing it won't affect my meals.
If I earn, I don't get cocky; if I lose, I don't make a fuss. Being able to sleep well is the most practical.
Don't mistake luck for skill, don't treat the market as an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market specializes in humbling the stubborn; I've long surrendered. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 The BTC 1H chart confirms price action coiling inside a descending parallel channel, meeting heavy rejection at the confluence of the upper trendline and the dynamic MA100 near $83,800. Declining volume confirms buyer exhaustion against sustained trend pressure. The preferred strategy is to enter a Short position near $83,750–$83,890 with a protective stop-loss parameter placed above $84,346, targeting the lower channel floor near $80,006 $BTC
#USTreasuryYieldHigh
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh $xNVDA $BTC Nvidia officially announces an increase in buybacks, adding $150 billion, totaling $235 billion in buyback authorization, to be executed before fiscal year 2028.
This reflects the cash flow strength of the AI giant, with management expressing optimism about the future in cold hard cash.
But it’s important to distinguish: buybacks are a buffer, not an engine.
Buybacks can improve earnings per share and stabilize market sentiment, but they cannot change the AI demand cycle.
If subsequent capital expenditures and orders from cloud providers fall short of expectations, even with buybacks, the stock price will still face pressure.
Short-term sentiment is positive, but the medium to long term depends on fundamentals being realized.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 Under macroeconomic pressure, the crypto market shows mixed performance
US Treasury yields are rising, becoming a valuation constraint for interest-free assets. The main theme in the crypto market has shifted from "capital inflow" to "macro competition."
$BTC has retreated to the 83,000 USD level, dropping only 0.27% in 24 hours, showing resilience with caution. The 81,500–83,000 range is seen by bulls as an accumulation zone, with institutional buying still providing support; if this range holds, the consolidation pattern is likely to continue.
$ETH is narrowly consolidating around 2,670 USD, down 0.51% for the day, with low volume indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears. Sell walls near 2,669 USD account for 80.3% of the top five order levels, about 2.4 times the buy orders; a short-term rebound must first overcome this selling pressure.
$SOL is relatively weak, down 2.66%–3.73% in 24 hours. The 115–118 USD range is a short-term critical line; if broken, 100–105 USD will become the next focus area.
$ZEC is the most volatile, dropping as much as 12.1% in 24 hours to a low of 1,379 USD. The previous smooth uptrend encountered leverage reduction; no project-specific negative news has been found, making it more like a passive liquidation after crowded positions.
Overall, macro pressure remains, and funds are repeatedly testing key levels. BTC holds the line, ETH faces resistance, SOL is under pressure, and ZEC is deleveraging, forming the current "polarized" crypto landscape.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 CCIP 2.0 matters less as a launch headline than as a test of whether institutional requirements can become repeatable cross-chain activity. Custom validation, compliance controls and configurable settlement target frictions that have limited tokenized assets. The real signal will be sustained usage and fee capture, not a single-day LINK move.
#ChainlinkCCIP2Launch Who exactly should decentralized technology protect?
Satoshi Nakamoto once said:
If Bitcoin is used for money laundering, it could very likely destroy the entire system.
The core distinction lies in that privacy technology protects the legitimate rights of vulnerable ordinary people, not providing hackers with a channel to evade accountability.
This issue is especially sensitive for cross-chain protocols:
Permissionless and censorship-resistant are selling points, but when they become transit points for stolen funds, the protocol’s role shifts from infrastructure to, in a sense, an accomplice.
Decentralization does not equal immunity.In the context of a relatively sluggish Robinhood Chain Meme market, Fables remains relatively resilient, with both daily trading volume and LP fees hitting new highs
- Daily trading volume reached $125 million, with ETH/USDG trading volume close to $98 million; the average daily trading volume per person reached a new high of $17,000
- Daily distributed LP fees were about $280,000, with ETH/USDG LP earning $118,000 and PONS/USDG LP earning $41,000; the average daily LP fee per person was $22.5
- The number of daily transactions also hit a new high, exceeding 57,000
However, Fables' TVL has decreased by about $3.5 million compared to the peak of previous days; meanwhile, the number of new LP addresses has slowed down