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Main focus $ETH | Strategy: Short, each high is lower than the previous one, short orders queued to enter
Initial operation: $ETH's high points this week slid from 2788 to 2743 then to 2724, each high lower than the last. Today it touched 2720 but was pushed back, bouncing a couple of times like a "hello" and then losing momentum. Shorting is just right, place shorts at 2690-2700, stop loss at 2735 (above the 2724 swing high), first target 2640, second target 2626. 3x leverage, starting with a risk-reward ratio of 1.6. The fee rate is only 0.002%, longs pay very little every 8 hours, no one wants to hold longs.
$ETH's descending channel is narrowing
From 9/22's 2788 to today's 2668, $ETH hasn't crashed much, but the highs are quietly getting lower: 2788 to 2743 to 2724 to 2720, each rebound is suppressed lower. The support at 2626 held twice (9/23 and 9/27), but the strength is weakening—on 9/23 it dropped to 2626 and bounced back sharply, on 9/27 it dropped to 2634 and then stalled. This pattern shows bulls are fighting for rebounds within the descending channel, while bears are waiting for new lows. The upper shadow at 2720 indicates selling pressure above is stronger than buying below. Don't chase shorts; wait for the price to return to 2690-2700 before placing orders, let the bears come to you. $ZEC — $1,388.40
Down 12.1% in 24 hours, leading losses among major tokens. Intraday low of $1,379.
The drop comes as profit-taking kicks in after ZEC nearly doubled in September. Long positioning remains heavy; the nearest major liquidation line sits at 20M in long exposure concentrated in that zone.
Context: $BTC is testing $83K, oil climbing again, 10Y Treasury yield at 5.25%. Macro pressure is hitting risk assets across the board.
Still up 76.6% over the past month. Long-term HODLing has become a distinct culture: a person chooses an asset and gives the position time.
Trading, sector rotation, and attempts to identify tops and bottoms require constantly guessing the market.
The main question is — what exactly to hold.
Here appears a factor often underestimated: the community.
For a crypto asset, not only technology, tokenomics, liquidity, and product matter. The ability to form a group of people ready to support the project for a long time and perceive it as part of their own identity is important.
Such communities develop a culture: regular DCA, memes, IRL meetings, public support of the project, and readiness to endure multi-year cycles of decline and growth.
Over time, this can become a source of stable attention and demand.
The history of the crypto market provides examples of assets around which such a culture has formed: BTC, XRP, DOGE, LINK, ADA, SOL, and $ZEC.
Their stories differ, so they cannot be directly compared. But the common element is the community’s ability to maintain attention and conviction over a long period.
Hence the main question arises: not which coins already have a global community, but which assets are at an early stage of its formation.
One can recall BTC in 2013, $XRP in 2016, SOL and $DOGE in 2020.
In each of these periods, the scale of the future community was not yet obvious to the entire market.
Therefore, the next big crypto asset may be interesting not only for its technology or chart. One of the early signals is the emergence of a community that behaves not like a temporary crowd of traders but as a long-term movement.
Such communities can survive several cycles, continue DCA during corrections, and transform asset ownership from a speculative position into an element of identity.
This does not automatically make the asset successful.
But in a world where attention becomes a scarce resource, the intensity and resilience of the community can be one of the important factors of long-term value.News from South Korea:
Min Byung-deok, a senior member of the ruling party's policy committee, publicly called for postponing the planned cryptocurrency income tax scheduled to start on January 1, 2027.
The reason is not a refusal to collect the tax, but that the supporting measures are not yet in place—the "Basic Digital Asset Act" has not been implemented, transaction records from overseas exchanges cannot be traced, and losses cannot be carried over to offset gains in the next year. Imposing the tax now would mean only counting profits and not losses.
The main exchange alliance DAXA has taken this stance.
What is worth noting is that the global regulatory trend is shifting from "rushing to set rules" to "first completing the infrastructure."
Delaying the tax is a short-term positive, but compliance costs will inevitably come; it's just a matter of time.ETF buying spree, whale retreat: Who is taking ETH at 2740?
ETH surged near 2740, but the key question is not how much more it can rise, but who is selling. The answer might be harsh: if you chase the price now, you might just be taking over the chips from the "break-even party."
The capital flow is tearing apart. The US spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $86.95 million on September 25, marking the sixth consecutive day of inflows, totaling about $690 million for the week; on September 18, there was a single-day inflow of $143.8 million, briefly surpassing the outflows of the previous three days. It seems institutions are buying.
But on-chain whales are exiting. A three-year-old address that accumulated 52,000 ETH at an average price of $2161 transferred 42,000 ETH to exchanges on September 24, worth about $112 million, clearly taking profits. On September 25, another whale transferred a total of 6,000 ETH, about $16.1 million, to OKX, Kraken, Gate, Bybit, and Binance. Earlier, a mysterious address liquidated 167,855 ETH within five days, valued at $408 million, with about $174 million flowing to OKX, Binance, and Bybit.
ETF buying is about narrative allocation, while whales are selling real money. One is entering, the other is exiting, moving in opposite directions. 2740 is not an impossible buy, but if you jump in just because of FOMO, you are likely not the hunter but the liquidity. $ETH $BTC $SOL
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Don't envy the profits made by holding through losses; the victory of a speculative coin like ZEC is full of luck💲
Many are amazed by the green-hair trader's moves: $ZEC first pumps to wipe out shorts, then a legendary waterfall crushes the longs. Shorts held from a floating loss of 2000U to a profit exceeding 10,000U, and people praise this as vision and perseverance.
But be clear, this profit is luck from an extreme market, not a replicable trading system. ZEC's chips are highly concentrated, allowing the main players to freely create "pump then dump" pin bar moves. Just because this time the rebound was held doesn't mean it will happen next time. Most people facing a 2000U floating loss can't hold until the waterfall comes and have already been liquidated. Holding a position exposes the account to huge risk; this time the market just moved in their favor.
The most misleading thing in trading is these "holding through losses to turn around" cases. They create the illusion that as long as you hold, the market will return. But in manipulated coins, a sustained short squeeze can wipe out all profits or even cause heavy principal losses.
In contrast, $ETH short-term shorts, though only gaining close to 2000U, have relatively mild volatility and controllable risk. Mainstream coins have better liquidity, making illogical extreme pin bars rare and strategies easier to execute.
Don't be brainwashed by this one success story. Gains made by stubbornly holding floating losses can be wiped out by one unexpected market move. Trading is not about whether you can hold to the death, but whether you can maintain risk control and limit the maximum loss on every trade.
$ZEC $ETHBTC负责带动市场节奏，ETH用来观察资金广度，而$ZEC则更像高Beta资产的风险偏好温度计。 真正值得关注的，不只是价格上涨，而是资金和交易活跃度有没有同步跟上。 📈 BTC企稳 + ETH/ZEC同步走强 → 市场扩散增强，风险偏好可能继续升温 ⚠️ BTC维持强势 + ETH/ZEC逐渐转弱 → 出现背离，需要警惕上涨动能减弱 接下来除了关注BTC关键位置，也可以留意ETH、ZEC的相对强弱，以及宏观数据和科技股财报对整体风险情绪的影响。 价格告诉我们发生了什么，资金扩散则帮助判断这波行情是否真正有参与度。 #BTC #ETH #ZEC #Crypto #MicronEarningsAhead#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
Aave V4 has launched Equities Hub on the Base chain, enabling tokenized US stock collateral lending. It supports 7 tech stock tokens issued by Coinbase as collateral to borrow USDC, including Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, and others, available only to non-US qualified users.
Users do not need to sell their stock tokens; they can borrow USDC by collateralizing them while continuing to enjoy stock price gains. Collateral ratios for different assets are set between 65%-79%, with on-chain price oracles provided by Chainlink. There is an initial quota limit, as this is a small-scale pilot phase.
This is an important implementation of RWA (Real-World Assets) on-chain, bridging US stock assets with DeFi lending channels, potentially attracting traditional stock capital into the on-chain ecosystem, which is positive for AAVE's narrative.
However, risks cannot be ignored: during US stock market holidays, oracle prices will pause updates, combined with significant stock price volatility, posing liquidation risks. Currently, this is only a pilot, and regulatory uncertainty remains high, so expectations should not be overly hyped.
Real-world asset tokenization is a long-term direction, but in the short term, it is more of a conceptual catalyst. Widespread adoption still requires time for validation. Macro is noisy (RBA decision + U.S. data today), so BTC can stay range-bound short-term. But the capital is flowing into actual utility: tokenized bank deposits, enterprise settlement, and quantum-ready infrastructure. The alts with real institutional hooks are decoupling. This is how the next leg usually starts, rails first, price later. Don't be blinded by short-term profits from short positions; long-term shorting of ZEC still hides huge risks 💲
Many people see floating profits from ZEC short positions and assume the long-term top-hunting strategy has been validated, thinking that as long as they can withstand volatility and keep a steady mindset, they can wait for the market to settle.
But you must distinguish: the current floating profits are just the result of a temporary pullback in the market phase, not an indication that the trend has completely reversed. ZEC is a highly controlled altcoin, with major funds able to freely create sharp spikes. Even if the overall direction is slowly downward, a violent rebound can be pulled out at any time, wiping out all long-term short positions.
The most dangerous moment in trading is precisely when your position shows a profit. People tend to relax risk control, treat short-term wins as absolute correctness, and choose to hold on stubbornly. Many top-hunting long-term short positions that initially gain profits can have all gains wiped out by a sudden short squeeze, even suffering significant principal losses.
Mindset is important, but it cannot offset the uncertainty of a manipulated market. ZEC's chips are concentrated, the cost of capital movement is low, and news or a large whale order can instantly reverse short-term candlesticks. Even if you plan to hold a small long-term position, you cannot ignore the extreme volatility risk unique to such speculative coins.
Mainstream coins like BTC and ETH have sufficient liquidity and relatively transparent markets, unlike altcoins that are easily manipulated by unilateral funds. It's not that mainstream coins have no risk, but at least they don't experience sudden, unprovoked one-sided violent price spikes.
Don't overestimate the fault tolerance of the top-hunting strategy just because of this one short-term profit. For altcoin long-term short positions, securing profits is always the priority.
$BTC $ETH $ZECHow can the US dollars in hand earn money passively in Crypto?
Goldman Sachs has provided an answer:
Connect about $100 billion of the FTIXX Treasury money market fund to Lynq, a 24/7 crypto settlement network.
This is not tokenization of US Treasuries; FTIXX remains a traditional money market fund, Goldman Sachs just changed the channel.
In the future, idle US dollars from market makers, OTC, and trading platforms can be put in to earn Treasury yields and quickly withdrawn when needed for trading.
In the short term, it won't directly push up BTC because this is not buying crypto funds.
But the medium-term significance is huge: if more and more Treasuries and money market funds connect to the 24/7 settlement network, Crypto will gain an additional layer of a dollar parking + interest-earning + on-demand liquidity capital base.
Goldman Sachs is not giving money to BTC, but building a "parking lot" for institutional dollars entering Crypto in the future.
Institutions will have a place to park funds, earn yields, and quickly return to trading 24/7.
When money is willing to stay, liquidity can stay.
Market overview:
$BTC is currently oscillating around 83,000, first watching the 82,000 support; if held, there is a chance to challenge 85,000, then 90,000;
If it breaks below 82,000, it may retest 80,000–81,500.
$ETH looks at 2650–2700; if it stabilizes, it has a chance to push to 2800; below 2600 turns weak.
$SOL and $XRP have greater elasticity but both need BTC to stabilize first.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 @OKX星球 这也是为什么我近期持续关注 美国国债收益率。 高收益率影响的不只是债券市场，还会通过融资成本、房贷利率、企业估值、美元以及整体流动性，进一步影响投资者对股票和加密资产的风险偏好。 对我来说，真正值得关注的并不是收益率某一天突然上升，而是它能维持高位多久。 如果美债收益率长期保持较高水平，那么资金进入 BTC 和其他高风险资产时，需要面对的“机会成本”也会越来越高。 但这也让当前 BTC 的表现更值得观察： 🔥 高收益率 + BTC持续走强 如果同时伴随现货需求和 ETF 资金流入，说明市场对 BTC 的真实需求依然具有韧性。 ⚠️ 高收益率 + 风险资产走弱 则可能意味着宏观紧缩压力正在重新传导至市场。 所以接下来我会重点观察三个变量： 🇺🇸 美债收益率 💵 美元与整体流动性 ₿ BTC现货及ETF资金流 收益率决定资金的机会成本，BTC 的价格反应则告诉我们风险偏好究竟有多强。 #USTreasuryYieldHigh #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #ETFThe US does not export diesel, and the EU feels the pain first
The Irish Minister for Energy said something.
If the US bans diesel exports, the EU will be greatly affected.
The original rule is:
The ban applies to the US's own diesel exports.
A common misunderstanding:
The EU is not buying US oil, but the US export volume.
If the US blocks it, the EU has to scramble elsewhere.
When many scramble, prices go up.
Diesel is not gasoline at gas stations.
It is used for trucks, farm machinery, and heating.
The US only dares to block exports because it has enough diesel for itself.
The EU doesn't have enough and can only buy at higher prices.
Once you step into this trap, you understand.
Last time it was natural gas, this time it's diesel.
The ones who always suffer are the buyers.
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $HYPE Deribit's competition prize pool exceeds $300,000, with Rolex and Tesla on display. Phemex's summer contest is also distributing USDT. Galxe and Zealy use free NFT as participation certificates, betting on subsequent airdrops. Early projects like Polymarket, Myriad, and Kalshi are also worth noting. Just finished checking the east side basement, signals look good, continuing to watch the market.
ONE current price is 0.002335. The candlestick is slowly declining, with heavy resistance from trapped positions above, and rebounds lack volume. The capital situation is more straightforward: strong short liquidation pressure above the current price, a typical false breakout spike pattern. Bullish momentum has already dried up; this is a high-risk game period.
Trading strategy is short only. Enter short positions in batches when price rebounds to the 0.00238 to 0.00242 range, with stop loss set above 0.00248. First take profit target is 0.00225, second target is 0.00218. Do not chase shorts; wait for the spike to provide entry points. Defense points must be firm; if broken, accept the loss.
This kind of market is about eating liquidity, don't be greedy.
$ONE
#Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损
@OKX星球 #ETH trading is like hunting: if the hunter doesn't shoot, he just misses a prey and still has his bullets, but if he shoots recklessly, not only does he waste bullets, he may also attract fierce beasts. Missed trades cost nothing, but reckless trading can make you lose everything. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 After $QNT rallied, a typical on-chain signal appeared:
Two addresses dormant for over three years woke up simultaneously.
0x6d32 deposited 8,250 tokens to Binance (18.8 million USD); 0xd633 transferred out 34,200 tokens (80.5 million USD), of which 9,000 tokens were sent respectively to Coinbase and Kraken.
Old wallets tend to move during rallies, usually for one of two reasons:
Long-term holders with very low cost are taking profits, or those who were trapped back then are letting go near breakeven.
Either way, this batch of tokens must pass through exchange sell orders.
I tend to view this as short-term selling pressure rather than a trend reversal—it's common for old coins to change hands during an uptrend; the key is whether the buying volume can absorb it.MDB closed around 334.68, dropping about 18.5% in one day: CEO jumps to Meta to run the enterprise platform, I’m not catching this falling knife.
Here’s what happened: Friday closed around 410.44, Monday opened around 311, hit a low of 300, and closed around 334.68; intraday maximum drawdown nearly 27%, volume surged to about 17.8 million shares, a typical high-volume long black candle.
The catalyst is strong — the current CEO stepped down to lead Meta’s enterprise platform, the former CEO returned as interim head, and quarterly and full-year guidance were reaffirmed.
On the same day, Meta itself dropped about 4.8%, SNOW fell about 2.3%, but MDB’s drop is due to company-level personnel shock, not just macro valuation cuts.
Simply put: this looks more like "management vacuum + succession uncertainty" being priced in, not a cut in revenue guidance; catching the falling knife in this range is risky and more likely to get hit by a second cut.
My view: with nonfarm payrolls and PCE data not yet released, and software stocks sentiment fragile, I’m only keeping a watch position for now, not betting on a one-day rebound, nor taking the guidance reaffirmation as a bottom-fishing license.
I won’t catch this knife yet; I’ll wait to see a volume-driven break below about 300 to confirm failure, or a steady hold above about 380 before discussing timing.
Do you think it will first consolidate between 300–350 to digest the investor day, or break 300 and wait for PCE before deciding?
$MDB $SNOW $DDOG
#ThisWeekKeyNonfarmAndPCEData
#US10YYieldHitsHighestSince2007GoldDropsOver3%I am the boss! $BTC current price 84059.0
The 4-hour chart is very clear. Although the short-term has pulled up, the major momentum has not kept up at all, and MACD is still in the negative zone. The heavy resistance of Supertrend above is stuck at 85164.6; without a substantial breakthrough at this level, there is no talk of restarting a new upward rally.
There are reports on-chain about intercepting hackers laundering money, but it is just a small-scale event and does not bring substantial incremental funds. This rebound is more of an internal battle of existing funds. The previous high point at 87374.3 is still above, leaving a considerable gap from the current price.
Many people see the small cycle closing bullish and immediately assume it will retest the historical high, but this idea is too aggressive. The 4-hour volume has not expanded correspondingly, indicating doubts about the bulls' follow-through. For now, it can only be considered a corrective rebound after a decline, not a restart of the main upward wave.
Short-term volatility is possible, but the weak signals on the larger time frame have not been completely eliminated. Don’t be brainwashed by a few minutes of bullish candles and blindly chase long positions at high levels. If the 85164.6 level is not broken soon, there is a high probability of turning down again to retest lower support.
The market is currently in this kind of corrective phase. It looks vibrant but actually hides traps. Don’t mistake the rebound for a new major trend.
This is just chart observation and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC
#Chainflip bridge security incident observation
#BTC 4-hour level rebound correction"Holding positions overnight, waiting for the wind to come"
$ZEC didn't go crazy this round, the entry position was quite comfortable. Unfortunately, the short position near 1660 was closed too early; I should have held on longer, now all that's left is "regret." The most frustrating part of trading isn't being wrong, but being right and not holding steady.
$ETH Last night, the short at 2705 took a small hit, but I still have two short positions: $LIT and Ethereum. Today, I'm still bearish on Ethereum; 2500 seems to be beckoning from afar. It's not obsession, but neither the rebound strength nor the structure has given a signal of strengthening yet.
With this week's Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE data approaching, the market tends to be volatile before the data; position sizing and timing are more important than direction. Knowing how to buy makes you a disciple, knowing how to sell makes you a master, but being able to hold is true cultivation. Remember this regret: next time the signal isn't broken, don't rush to exit.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% In a bull market, 99% of retail investors lose money. It's really not because the market is bad; on the contrary, it's because the market is too good. When the market is good, human nature fully emerges.
A bull market has never been a phase where everyone gets rich together; its essence is the redistribution of chips. Those who endure the bottom and those who rush in during the middle and late stages are destined to be different groups. What truly determines whether you can make money is not during the bull market, but whether you were present before the bull market began.
The problem with retail investors is always about timing. When prices fall, they constantly see bad news, getting more and more scared, and the more scared they get, the less they dare to buy; when prices rise, they start finding reasons to say it's a slow bull or that there will be corrections, but then one bullish candle after another breaks their mentality, and they end up chasing at the exact point where the main force is selling.
The sequence of actions is almost uniform: during declines, they want to survive and sell at the lowest; during rises, they want to double their money and chase at the highest. It's not that they don't try, but every effort is just used in the wrong place.
The harshest thing about a bull market is that it infinitely magnifies your flaws. When greedy, you think you're a genius; after a pullback, you start doubting your life; seeing others double their money, you can't help but switch coins; seeing small coins surge, you start fantasizing about breaking even in one shot, and in the end, you give back all the profits you made before.
More realistically, most people are not here to invest but are gambling under the guise of a bull market. They don't look at cycles, don't understand the structure, don't know what the main force is doing, only focusing on whether it rose today or if it can double tomorrow. For such people, the bull market is just a tool to accelerate losses.
Those who can truly make money in a bull market are often the quietest. Because when others are excited, they have already started to slowly let go; when others are desperate, they have long held their chips firmly. The bull market is just a stage to realize cognition, not a stage to learn cognition.
So, the bull market is not here to save retail investors; the bull market is here to settle accounts. Whether you make money or not has long been written by your previous choices #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH 本季度以来，ETH的相对表现明显增强。按不同统计区间来看，以太坊的涨幅一度明显高于BTC，ETH/BTC也重新成为市场关注的关键指标之一。 更值得注意的是ETF资金。9月中旬以来，ETH现货ETF资金流表现出现改善；而截至9月下旬的一周，美国现货ETH ETF合计净流入约 6.90亿美元，同期BTC现货ETF净流入约 24亿美元。这说明机构资金并没有单边离开BTC，而是呈现出“BTC与ETH同时获得配置”的状态。 🔹 为什么ETH开始受到更多关注？ • ETF资金重新回流，提升机构配置需求 • Staking收益让ETH具备不同于BTC的资金属性 • DeFi、稳定币和L2生态持续强化ETH的基础设施定位 • 市场开始重新讨论ETH作为链上结算与资产代币化基础设施的价值 不过，ETF流入并不等于全部都是长期方向性买盘。部分资金可能涉及套利、收益策略以及机构仓位再平衡，因此仍需要结合ETH/BTC走势和持续资金流来判断。 📈 接下来重点看三个信号： 1️⃣ ETH/BTC能否继续走强 2️⃣ ETH ETF能否维持连续净流入 3️⃣ ETH突破压力位时，成交量是否同步放大 如果这三个#Tether froze nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year
The US is once again using Tether as a tool.
Tether itself said that so far this year, it has frozen nearly $550 million USDT, all related to the Central Bank of Iran and sanction networks. In April alone, it froze $344 million in one go. The US Senate even issued a report stating that among 846 sanctioned wallets, 84% almost exclusively use USDT for transactions, and they still think Tether's actions are not fast enough.
What does Tether say? They say the public chain can track it, and they cooperate with law enforcement. Think about this statement carefully; the meaning is clear: the US is watching me, so I dare not refuse to cooperate.
So what impact does this have on our crypto circle? I'll tell you two points.
First, the neutrality of stablecoins is basically a joke. USDT has the largest market and best liquidity, but when it comes to compliance and sanctions, it absolutely listens to the US. If they say freeze, it freezes. Don't think holding U is absolutely safe; in the face of power, on-chain assets can also be locked with one click.
Second, this actually gives decentralized stablecoins and Bitcoin an opportunity. The more compliant USDT is, the easier it is to be subject to centralized censorship. Those seeking censorship resistance might move their funds to decentralized stablecoins like DAI or directly to Bitcoin. The US's widespread long-arm jurisdiction will instead push some funds toward truly decentralized assets.
There is no truly absolutely safe haven; be prepared for anything. What do you think?
$BTC $ETH #MichaelBurry changed his strategy: from directly shorting to buying put options.
His reasoning is that this allows for a lower cost and a shorter holding period—the options come with leverage, and the maximum loss is limited to the premium.
The strike price is set very low, for example, Micron’s current price is close to $1,054, with the strike price far below.
The narrative around AI and crypto is becoming increasingly linked; on the line of computing power, data centers, and electricity, the same group of funds is allocating to both.
If the AI bubble bursts first, the transmission path is most likely not "AI crashes first then crypto," but rather a simultaneous contraction in risk appetite.
Don’t treat AI and crypto as two independent gambling tables; their downturns are correlated. 1. Bears currently dominate; it is estimated that the current range will need 2-3 more oscillations back and forth. Beware of a false breakout followed by a sharp drop. It is expected that on October 3-4, there will be a breakdown below the range. If broken, the first target is 2560, followed by around 2250.
2. Recently, large on-chain transfers have been especially frequent, which is a dangerous signal indicating an impending storm. Therefore, when opening positions, always use stop-loss orders, at least absolute stop-loss. If you need to exit, do so promptly; securing profits is the most important.
3. A wide double bottom has formed on the 4-hour chart. Therefore, go long around the double bottom with a stop-loss at the lowest point of the double bottom at 2620. If the double bottom is effectively broken downward, short on the rebound. Also, monitor the top area of the bottom of the range for shorting opportunities. Note: do not short below 2650 without a valid bottom formation, and do not go long above 2710.
4. The current situation is unfavorable for bulls, but they are still making efforts. If these efforts show clear results, how will the market react? Considering the current situation, I am personally bullish; refer to point 3 for specific strategies.
5. If it is bearish, an effective drop should occur no later than 4 o'clock, and the drop should not be higher than 2650. Otherwise, it may be a bull trap with a slow rise to lure shorts.
6. Note: pay close attention to bullish pullbacks, including other assets still accumulating at the bottom. Every healthy pullback is an opportunity to test longs. Do not get attached or obsessed with coins nearing the end of their cycle. The core of altcoin trading is to seize opportunities decisively, hold patiently, and exit timely; not to be infatuated with a single coin while it moves on and you remain fixated—that is called infatuation.Staring at the K-line all afternoon, the red and green alternated like a stagnant ripple, not even a decent wick in sight. The system's decision kept hovering on wait-and-see, but my fingers couldn't resist wanting to tap the order screen. This kind of low-volume market is the most insidious; rationally, I know it's a deep pit, but the inner distractions still jump out to persuade me that even entering with a small position is okay. Luckily, I just finished my cigarette; went downstairs to buy a pack and came back, and the screen was still the same dead look. The hardest challenge in trading is indeed battling with yourself. Sometimes being able to calmly admit that you just can't make money right now is much more stable mentally than when losing money.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI This week's macro highlights are here
This week, I think what the crypto world really needs to watch is whether US employment and inflation data can continue to push up the market's expectations for interest rate hikes.
Wednesday: ADP employment numbers, core PCE
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Federal Reserve officials' speeches
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate
Especially Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
Because last week the market already began to trade on the logic that high interest rates will be maintained longer, if this week's employment data remains strong and core PCE does not show obvious cooling, then I believe the market's expectation for continued rate hikes in October may still be affected.
This is quite critical for BTC.
Conversely, if employment starts to weaken and inflation data cools down, and the market lowers its rate hike expectations again, then the pressure on risk assets may also ease #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $ICP Development Progress: This Year is a Big Delivery Year
Mission 70 Deflation Reform (White Paper released on January 14, 2026): This is the most important protocol-level change this year, aiming to reduce the ICP inflation rate by 70% by the end of 2026. Supply-side measures are expected to reduce the annual minting rate from 9.72% (January 2026) to 5.42% (January 2027), while shortening the staking unlock period, changing linear staking rewards to a convex curve, and setting a cap on the governance reward pool.
The 2026 roadmap focus shifts from "proving technical feasibility" to "adoption": AI evolves from demonstration to paid infrastructure (AI Worker charges per inference, Open Caffeine for natural language generation applications); Chain Fusion cross-chain expansion without bridges extends to Dogecoin, BNB Chain, XRPL; scaling protocols Fission and default privacy (VetKeys).
Two recent landmark deliveries: MCP Server public beta in July—standard protocol for AI Agents to access ICP smart contracts (canisters), allowing one authorization to operate across multiple dApps; CODEBASE launched in September—a fully decentralized Git hosting, with commit/pull over HTTP running directly on canisters, no longer relying on GitHub.
On-chain throughput hits record: On September 24, a single day processed 138.9 million transactions, setting a new network record.1. **Direct positive impact on AAVE** (24h +11%):
- Founder Stani stated today that he is **considering introducing an AAVE burn mechanism in Aavenomics 3.0** (token burning)
- SEC updated guidelines on 9/28: clarified that **protocol token buybacks are not automatically considered securities** — clearing the biggest regulatory shadow over Aave's buyback model
- Combined with the V4 stock collateral launch on 9/25 (tokenized stocks of Apple / Nvidia / Tesla can be used as USDC loan collateral)
2. **AVAX mainnet upgrade brewing** (24h +10%): 9/8 Helicon upgrade (staking economy optimization) + three spot AVAX ETFs operating in the US + Hanwha launching tokenized securities platform in September
3. **LINK remains strong** (24h +11%): After CCIP 2.0 release, whales increased holdings by 2.5 million tokens over 10 days, Aave is among the first to adopt $AAVE $LINK Coinbase Approved to Build Its Own U.S. Derivatives Clearinghouse
Coinbase has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to clear fully collateralized futures, options, and swaps through Coinbase Clearing LLC. The exchange, futures brokerage, and clearinghouse are all within the Coinbase ecosystem, and the platform says this will support native $USDC collateral and 24/7 settlement.
This does not mean all Coinbase derivatives can be cleared internally immediately. The approval does not cover leveraged products; margin futures and planned single-stock perpetual contracts still require external partners. The clearinghouse’s role is not to place orders for users but to handle settlement and some counterparty risk between buyers and sellers.
For users, the change feels more like a shift in trading infrastructure: Coinbase is gradually bringing collateral, brokerage, trading, and clearing into a unified compliant chain. This may reduce intermediaries but also increases platform concentration. What remains to be seen is what new products this clearing capability will enable and whether USDC collateral changes contract costs and settlement speed.
#Coinbase #USDCMany people are asking, can we short at 840?
After the early session dropped steadily to around 827, it slowly rose to about 840 and then started to fluctuate. The market has been in a slow upward trend. So, can we short at this time? I suggest waiting a bit. Currently, the short-term bullish momentum is strong, and the Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with room still above. It is recommended to short around 852-854.
For Ethereum, it is suggested to short at 2762-2748 $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 It looks like nearly 300 million was moved out — Strategy-related addresses transferred about 3,568 BTC in 9 hours.
According to Odaily citing Lookonchain on 9/29: In the past 9 hours, Strategy transferred out 3,568 bitcoins, valued at approximately $297 million. Subsequently, on-chain researcher Emmett Gallic clarified: this was not a sale or asset relocation, but normal internal fund allocation within Fidelity Custody; Fidelity treats customer-deposited BTC as interchangeable assets and moves them between addresses as needed. The related addresses have been labeled as Fidelity on Arkham.
Transfer out ≠ sell-off; internal custody allocation ≠ reduction in holdings; monitoring labels ≠ company has sold coins. This is a different event from the approximately 1,665 BTC increase in Strategy's weekly report yesterday (custody allocation vs weekly purchase) NEW. At the time of writing, OKX BTC is about 84,033. Not investment advice.
$BTC $SOL is currently around $119, rebounding intraday from about $116.5, with $120 as a short-term key level; the previous high of $125 remains the main resistance. The recent pullback is related to the Alpenglow mainnet launch time not yet being finalized, but ETF inflows still provide support.
$SPCX is latest around $148, oscillating around $148 for several consecutive trading days, with clear support at $145–146, and resistance still at $150–155 above.
NVIDIA is currently trading around $230, testing resistance near $234–235 in the short term; meanwhile, the company has added a $150 billion buyback authorization, which supports the stock price on the news front, but rising US Treasury yields remain an external pressure that tech stocks need to face.
Overall, all three assets are oscillating near resistance levels. The focus next is whether SOL can hold above $120, SPCX can break above $150 again, and NVDA can break through $235.
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Under the hanging sword, 83000 is not the bottom
Non-farm payrolls and PCE data are about to be released on the same night, with CME showing nearly a 70% chance of a rate hike in October, and Goldman Sachs pointing to the last rate hike of the year on October 27. Before these two swords fall, the oxygen for risk assets has already been sucked out.
But BTC stubbornly hovers around 83000, neither crashing nor surging. This is not strength, but waiting—waiting for the data to set the direction, waiting for the main players to complete their handover.
On-chain data is even more honest: on September 15, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $450 million in a single day, with FBTC alone withdrawing over $200 million. Institutions are exiting with real money, yet retail investors have pushed long positions above 58%, with shorts only making up 40%. Despite macro headwinds, regulatory chill, and bearish news, the crowd is crowded on the same side.
When chips are so concentrated, sideways movement is not building a bottom but the calm before the net closes. Under the double blow of non-farm payrolls and rate hikes, 83000 may not hold.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% A friend asked how Aave V4 supports using 7 types of Coinbase stock tokens as collateral to borrow USDC. Actually, it just broadens the channels for collateral. It's important to know that in traditional financial activities, collateral plays a crucial role. However, the market closure times of traditional stocks naturally conflict with the 7*24 hour settlement on-chain. So, even though Aave has implemented mechanisms to freeze oracle prices over the weekend, the risk of a gap jump at Monday's market open cannot be ruled out. In summary, I think this path is still long, and we shouldn't simply assume it's a positive for $AAVE One-third of the funds are bearish on BTC, and I was a bit stunned when I saw this data.
It's not that the price has dropped by one-third, but that put options account for this proportion of option trades. Simply put, out of every three bets with real money, one is betting that the market will continue to decline.
What’s even more noteworthy is the volatility, which has dropped to around 35%. This means the market no longer expects large swings, and even slight fluctuations cause funds to rush out.
Greeks.live directly comments: This looks more like a mid-bear market rebound.
I’m reluctant to accept this judgment, but the data is right in front of us. Outsiders see just a percentage, but even the funds that gamble on volatility are exiting, indicating how lukewarm the market sentiment is.
Honestly, the scariest thing right now isn’t the decline itself, but that you think the market has bottomed, when in fact it’s just a brief pause in the downtrend.
BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit a near one-year high, Strategy continues to increase BTC holdings, and multiple institutions are simultaneously adding positions. This week also awaits two key data releases: Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE.
Risk warning: Virtual currency trading is not legally protected and is highly volatile. The above is only a market opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH
Market expectations (consensus among multiple parties) for August PCE (the Fed's most watched inflation indicator):
Overall PCE year-on-year: about 3.7% (steady from previous value)
Core PCE year-on-year: about 3.3%-3.4%
Month-on-month expectations: overall about +0.4%, core about +0.3% (rising from previous value)
September Nonfarm Payrolls:
New nonfarm jobs: about 90,000-100,000 (previous value 162,000, expected significant slowdown)
Unemployment rate: remains around 4.1%
Average hourly earnings month-on-month: about +0.3%
These two data points are the most important employment and inflation readings before the Fed's policy meeting at the end of October.
The current context is that the Fed raised rates in September, and the market has a high expectation of whether it will continue to raise rates in October. Russian banks begin discussing crypto asset-backed loans
When banks start seriously discussing using BTC and ETH as collateral
The gap between crypto assets and traditional finance narrows a bit more
One of Russia's largest banks, Sberbank, plans to accept BTC, ETH, and USDT as loan collateral after obtaining regulatory approval
This arrangement is related to Russia's new crypto asset regulatory framework
Market rules will enter a new observation phase after September 1
The truly important aspect of this
Is not that banks suddenly turn bullish on BTC and ETH
But that crypto assets begin to be revalued within the traditional credit system
BTC is more suitable to be seen as a highly liquid digital collateral
Its market depth is greater
Although volatility is obvious, institutions can more easily build risk control models
ETH is more controversial
It is both an asset and a carrier of network usage rights
Its price is influenced jointly by on-chain activity, staking scale, ecosystem revenue, and market sentiment
For borrowers
Using BTC or ETH as collateral can avoid directly selling assets
While obtaining liquidity
But for banks, the risks are also clear
Once prices drop rapidly
The collateralization ratio will quickly deteriorate
Whether this type of business can expand in the future
Does not depend on whether banks are willing to accept crypto assets
But on whether liquidation mechanisms, valuation methods, regulatory boundaries, and capital requirements are mature
If these issues can be resolved
$BTC and $ETH will no longer be just price curves in trading accounts
But may become truly usable collateral assets within the financial system Is there a Zcash answer for Bitcoin?
Researchers [[alloc] init] have introduced Shielded Bitcoin — a protocol for private BTC transactions without a soft fork or a separate sidechain.
The concept uses ideas familiar from Zcash: encrypted notes, public nullifiers, and zero-knowledge proofs.
Transaction data is published via OP_RETURN, and indexers verify their sequence.
At first glance, this challenges the thesis of $ZEC as a "private addition to Bitcoin."
If privacy can be implemented around BTC, why is a separate private asset needed?
However, a fundamental unresolved question remains — peg-in and peg-out, that is, the mechanism for inputting real $BTC into the system and withdrawing it back.
The authors of Shielded Bitcoin leave this part outside the scope of the study and do not claim it will be trustless or censorship-resistant.
The history of the crypto market shows that bridges are often vulnerable.
At the same time, the emergence of Shielded Bitcoin is important for Zcash.
The protocol confirms the demand for the architecture that Zcash has been developing for years. Citrea acquired the private Bitcoin wallet Crest, announcing its intention to bring Zcash-like privacy to Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, $NEAR is developing confidential perps and confidential limit orders.
A broader trend is forming: privacy is becoming an independent infrastructure layer.
The reason is fundamental.
Public blockchains permanently preserve the user's financial history.
AI and data analysis make address clustering and deanonymization cheaper.
In the future, a single transaction through a KYC exchange could reveal a significant part of a person's financial history.
Therefore, Shielded Bitcoin does not necessarily mean the end of the Zcash thesis. Rather, it shows that the market recognizes the problem Zcash solves: Bitcoin can be a global monetary layer, but transparency of all operations does not have to be its final model.
The main question now is different: will privacy become a built-in feature of Bitcoin or a separate specialized layer — and what role will Zcash retain?Tokenized deposits are beginning to enter the core pipeline of the U.S. banking system.
The U.S. payment institution The Clearing House has selected blockchain company Quant to provide underlying interoperability and transaction management technology for its "On-Chain Money Initiative," enabling direct clearing and settlement of tokenized deposits between different financial institutions. It is expected to be open to participating institutions in the first half of 2027.
The key is not that "banks are using blockchain," but that this system directly connects to TCH's existing RTP and CHIPS networks— the latter processes over $2 trillion in payment clearing daily.
Blockchain is not appearing as an asset trading tool outside the banking system but is embedded within traditional funds transfer itself.
$BTC$ZEC ZEC in this wave of decline, I see an opportunity to break even. It dropped 3.2% yesterday and another 4.17% today.
I entered long at 800, kept holding and adding positions, raising the average cost to 1352, and now I finally see the dawn of breaking even.
It's not the shorts who are panicking now, but the longs who bought at high prices.
ZEC had liquidations worth 21.21 million USD in 24 hours, with long liquidations at 19.3 million, shorts only 1.9 million, and the largest single liquidation at 880,000. The daily volatility exceeded 9.94%, with 3,563 people liquidated; the market is harvesting the longs.
Big players are going long, and the number of longs is surging. This kind of market often tends to pull back; breaking even is just within reach.
No cooldown period set; if it rallies again overnight, I'll just keep adding positions. I firmly believe it will drop significantly.Leverage parameter tightening has not yet taken effect, and $ONE on OKX has already shown divergence between spot and perpetual contracts.
In OKX public data at 15:48 (UTC+8), $ONE spot price was 0.002431, down 8.95% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.002375 to 0.002747; the spot trading volume in the past 24 full hours was about 1.151 million USDT, while perpetual contracts were about 39.172 million USDT.
⚠️ In the last full hour, spot rose 1.75% with trading volume down 43.99% compared to the previous hour; perpetual contracts fell 3.10% with trading volume up 150.26%. Current open interest (OI) is about 1.249 billion ONE (approximately 2.869 million USD), with Funding at -0.1738%. The price drop with increased volume on the leverage side and negative Funding indicates significant divergence remains, but a single OI snapshot cannot determine the direction of new positions.
If spot price stabilizes above 0.00256 and perpetual trading cools down, short-term pressure may ease; if spot falls below 0.00239 while perpetual volume continues to increase downward, I will prioritize guarding against deleveraging volatility before parameter adjustments.#Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损
This is forcing the crypto industry and AI to combine!
Anthropic's revenue surged 12 times, but it lost $42 billion in one year! How much money does the AI business really burn?
Anthropic's prospectus reveals that revenue will approach $4.6 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 12 times, but operating losses exceed $8 billion, and net losses reach about $42 billion.
Don't be scared by the “$42 billion loss”; about $34 billion of that comes from the revaluation of financing instruments, not actual operating cash outflows. What really deserves attention is the operating loss exceeding $8 billion.
Even more astonishing, Anthropic's computing and infrastructure expenses reached $7.33 billion last year, accounting for more than half of operating expenses, and future cloud computing and infrastructure commitments are as high as $518 billion.
This actually reveals the core contradiction in the AI industry: demand growth is real, but computing power costs are also skyrocketing.
So what Anthropic's IPO really aims to verify is not just whether there is demand for AI, but whether the “revenue growth rate” can ultimately outpace the “growth rate of computing power costs.”
If it can outpace, the huge infrastructure investment in AI may become a moat; if it cannot outpace in the long term, no matter how high the revenue growth rate is, it will be difficult to prove that the business model is mature.
This is also the most important aspect to watch in the AI sector going forward."Volatile Market: Wait for Confirmation, Don't Rush to Lead"
Nearly $3 billion ETF inflows in six days, yet BTC remains stuck between 83K–85K. Demand isn't weak, but the price hasn't broken through, indicating the buying side still lacks a final push. Chasing longs now risks a false breakout, while shorting goes against the trend. Before the range breaks, patience is more important than direction.
ETH is tugging around 2680, with resistance at 2742 above and support at 2650 below. I’m holding only part of my 2712 short position to keep flexibility and allow time for the market to confirm.
SOL climbed from 117 to 122, the strongest in the short term, but strong doesn’t mean you should chase. The later the impulse phase, the higher the risk of a pullback; waiting for a retracement is more comfortable than chasing the rally.
ZEC currently shows no clear structure; watching and waiting is the strategy.
In a volatile range, frequent position changes are the biggest risk, as fees and emotions will both erode capital. Wait for BTC to break out with volume, for ETH to test boundaries, and for SOL to confirm a pullback. Move less when there’s no signal, act when there is.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Damn, ETH suddenly pulled back to 2714! BTC touched 84000 again, and SOL also started to rebound. This wave of bears is probably feeling a bit uncomfortable. Yesterday they were all diving, but today these three coins are pushing up again. BTC rebounded to 84000, ETH pulled to 2714, and SOL returned to 119.27. Especially ETH, this time it’s clearly stronger than the other two.
I just checked the 15-minute chart; ETH’s MA20 is at 2685, MA10 at 2703, and the MACD red bars are continuously expanding. Short-term buying has indeed returned. Now I’m watching 2720 first; after breaking through, I’ll observe 2725 to 2740. If it can hold above 2703 on a pullback, I’ll continue considering long positions; if it falls below 2685, I’ll lower my expectations.
On the BTC side, MA20 has already risen to 83556, and the price has climbed back above the short-term moving average. But around 84000, there are definitely people looking to take profits. I’m planning to wait for it to break 84300 before considering adding positions.
SOL’s rebound is relatively slower; MA20 is at 118.51, the price has already moved back above the moving average, and the MACD is starting to strengthen. But 120 hasn’t been taken yet, so I’m not chasing for now. After breaking 120, I’ll look at 120.75; if it falls back to 118.5, I’ll wait.
Earlier, ETH spot ETF still had capital inflows, and the short-term trend is now starting to cooperate, but I won’t declare the adjustment over just because of one rebound.
Today I’m more inclined to trade ETH, wait for BTC to break through, and continue observing SOL. After such a big drop, the biggest fear is a rebound of just two bullish candles,$ACT/USDT (1h Chart)
ACT Rounding Bottom Expansion Above Moving Averages
ACT trends upward to $0.010722 following a base build at $0.010133. Price holds above MA5 ($0.010660), MA10 ($0.010574), and MA20 ($0.010512).
Entry: $0.01055 – $0.01070
Target 1: $0.01080
Target 2: $0.01120
Stop Loss: $0.01025
Clearing $0.01080 resistance triggers momentum toward higher targets.
DYOR. Not financial advice (NFA).
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek OKB ground between 117 and 119 on Tuesday, Monday's low at 116.2 hasn't been fully absorbed yet, and the surge to 126.5 is no longer being revisited.
Yesterday's low was 116.20, high 121.68, closing at 117.56. Today opened around 117.54, with a high of 119.31, low of 117.03, current price about 118.56. Volume shrank from 12.98 million to 4.29 million, the rebound is weak.
Resistance remains between 119.31 and 121.68 above; further up is 125.61 to 126.49. If 117.03 breaks below, it’s likely to test 116.20 first; if that doesn't hold, short-term price may seek space down to 114.52.
Short-term focus is whether the current price around 118.56 can hold. If it can't, treat it as still digesting the drop from 126.5, and avoid chasing at this price. Those already holding should watch if today's low at 117.03 can support; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback—if 119.31 can't be surpassed, reconsider; don't catch a falling knife mid-air. $OKB $SEI is slightly bullish, the pullback is somewhat interesting. 4h RSI 55, slightly low; 1h RSI 44.5, slightly low; MACD is moving upward.
The pullback zone is 0.0752–0.0761, and the current price is already within this range.
Timing: Within the pullback zone, suitable for reference (do not chase the rise).
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when reaching the upper target or invalidation, do not hold stubbornly.
Upper target is 0.0865; breaking below 0.0668 indicates this wave's logic is invalid.
After invalidation, do not force trades; wait to retake EMA55 before reconsidering.
Summary: Slightly bullish, pullback zone can be used for reference, whether to trade depends on invalidation.
$CHIP still has a bearish structure but has already broken out of the observation zone. 4h RSI 47.3, slightly low; 1h RSI 57.6, slightly high; MACD is moving upward.
The rebound zone was originally 0.0439–0.0444, current price has broken out, so no shorting for now.
Timing: Already out of the zone, no shorting for now.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when reaching the lower target or invalidation, do not hold stubbornly.
Lower target is 0.042; retaking 0.0457 indicates this wave's logic is invalid.
After invalidation, do not force trades; wait to fall back below EMA55 before reconsidering.
Summary: Bearish structure still present but out of observation zone, no shorting for now.
For analysis only, not advice or trading instructions.It's really different now: whenever $ETH rebounds, the funds come rushing in😬
New address 0x487…476F1 has withdrawn a total of 11,610 $ETH from exchanges in the past 5 hours (roughly matching the ETH rebound trend), valued at 30.97 million USD, with an average withdrawal price of $2667.46, currently showing an unrealized profit of 552,000 USD
Wallet address 0x4876fF2293831Dfd6FbA89aF9F44fd4DDc7476F1The SNDK short position didn't win this time; after dropping to 1661, it pulled back to 1728.
Yesterday's low was 1661, the high touched 1786.7 but didn't break through, closing at 1697.5. Today opened at 1697.4, with a high of 1740.4, a low of 1687.1, and the current price is about 1728.8. Volume has shrunk.
1740 above is still resistance; only above that is yesterday's 1786. Below 1687, if broken again, it will likely revisit 1661 first.
In the short term, watch if 1728 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a retracement and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 1687 support holds; if it doesn't, consider reducing your position. $SNDK $CASHCAT The spot trading volume of this asset is probably less than the principal amount everyone uses to open a single contract.