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You have analyzed this set of numbers very thoroughly — *Rektember has been disproven again this time, and it's a 4 consecutive gains.*
*1. How the "worst month" label came about:*
Starting from 2013, the average return in September is *-2.93% to -4.02%* depending on the data source, *8 out of 13 years had positive returns, with a win rate of only 38%*, hence the name Rektember. From 2017 to 2022, it was 6 consecutive years of losses.
*2. The $78,563 → $84,502 rise you mentioned matches:*
Official data: *around $78,500 at the beginning of September*, after a 25% increase in August, surged to *$87,354, a new high since January this year*, now around $83,600, *a monthly increase of 7.33%, surpassing the 7.29% in 2024, making it the best September on record according to Coinglass.* The *4 rejections at $82K* you mentioned correspond to the mid-month Clarity Act *failing 49-50 + $450 million ETF outflow in a single day + Fed rate hike* days' shakeout.
*3. Why was the curse broken?*
- The *four consecutive gains* you mentioned: *2023 +3.91%, 2024 +7.29%, 2025 +5.16%*, this is the fourth year, so the so-called seasonality has been wrong for 3 years in a row.
- The real driver: *ETF inflows of nearly $1 billion on September 21*, 7 consecutive days of inflows totaling $2.98 billion, directly squeezing out $800 million in short positions Don't just focus on the highs and lows of tonight's PCE; a hidden variable might be more important.
Tonight at 20:30, the PCE data will be released, and everyone is guessing the numbers.
But this time, I think something is easily overlooked: the adjustment in statistical methodology.
The market has already priced in some "possible downward revision of inflation," so even if the PCE comes in below expectations tonight, don't immediately interpret it as BTC ready to take off.
Let's also look at the capital flow.
Last week, BTC ETFs saw inflows of nearly $2.4 billion, and ETH ETFs are still receiving funds, but the prices of BTC and ETH haven't fully caught up.
(Money is flowing in, but prices are still consolidating; this situation is quite intriguing.)
So what we really need to watch tonight is whether the October rate hike expectations can continue to decline after the PCE release, which would also help push down U.S. Treasury yields.
If this pressure eases, the money already flowing into ETFs might gradually reflect in the prices.
If the PCE remains sticky, even with ETF inflows, the price gains won't materialize quickly.
What BTC and ETH might be lacking now isn't money, but a sigh of relief from the macro side.
$ETH $BTC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $BTC
Range bound until proven otherwise.
BTC continues to chop around inside a tight range between $83k and $85k.
Now that buyers have defended the lows once again, I believe another move into the highs next becomes likely.
That way, some more shorts could get hunted out before price rotates back lower and eventually sweeps the other
side of the range as well.
With a move below the lows, price would tap into the currently largest liquidity cluster, Most people still don’t understand the new $UNI setup.
Since the fee switch, protocol fees flow into the pool, and accessing those funds requires UNI to be burned.
The fundamentals improved, but price still suffered a massive drawdown before recovering—showing the real challenge: understanding fundamentals is easy; holding through the volatility is hard.
$UNI’s burn model is also more complex than $HYPE’s straightforward fee-to-buyback approach.
#USIranTalksRestart
#NVIDIA150BBuyback No wonder it's been steadily declining today!
BTC has dropped to around $84,000, ETFs are still buying, but a warning signal has appeared!
On September 28, the US spot BTC ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $31 million, but it was the lowest in eight consecutive trading days.
What does this mean?
Institutional funds haven't clearly withdrawn, but the buying strength is weakening.
The core contradiction BTC faces now is not "whether there is money to buy," but "whether new buying can continue to absorb the selling pressure above."
If ETFs continue to maintain net inflows and BTC can reclaim key resistance levels, it indicates this adjustment is more like high-level rotation.
But if BTC continues to weaken and ETF inflows shrink or even turn negative, then be cautious as funds may switch from "buying the dip" to "risk control."
So the three signals I’m most focused on next are:
BTC price, ETF net flow, and spot trading volume.
Price drops aren’t scary; what’s most concerning is when prices fall and institutional funds start to withdraw simultaneously.
Currently, it looks like demand still exists, but marginal strength is declining.
This is also the "expectation gap" that BTC needs to guard against in the short term.I think people are going to make this $BTC range far more complicated than it needs to be.
My view is that we’re now reaccumulating before the next markup.
We had accumulation near the lows, followed by the first expansion.
That process can include corrections, failed breakouts and weeks of going nowhere. It doesn’t have to look clean while it’s happening.
Every push toward the highs will convince people the next leg has started. $BTC has now tested our key supply zone above, just like $ETH I suspect we are going to form a LTF range here before a deeper push into the 75-79k zone for now.
Can probably fade whichever side of this local range we take first but ideally we get a little PO3 setup to the local highs before a deeper pullback.$GRT
What does GRT's pullback today indicate after becoming the market focus yesterday?
On September 29, market reports listed GRT among the smaller tokens leading the rally. This morning, OKX spot 24-hour range was approximately 0.02896—0.03098, with a trading volume of only about 510,000 USDT, and the current price is near the intraday low. The hype does not match the trading depth on this platform, and a small number of sell orders may also amplify price fluctuations.
If the 15-minute chart recovers above 0.031 with increased volume, it indicates short-term funds are still willing to support. If it continues to break below 0.02896 and rebounds with low volume, I would consider the previous day's rise more driven by liquidity. Long-term value still requires real demand and protocol revenue verification.Your breakdown is clearer than 90% of marketing accounts — *$4 trillion is not on-chain, it’s a registration ledger; what’s on-chain is a copy.*
*Official announcement verified:*
- *Entity:* Brazil licensed central securities depository *CSD BR*, managing *22 trillion reais ≈ $4 trillion* in registered assets
- *Action:* Part of *BTG Pactual* (Latin America’s largest investment bank) fund shares are synchronized to the *XRP Ledger* using XRPL’s MPT multi-purpose token standard
- *Official records remain in the original database:* CSD BR’s own system remains the *sole official source for registration, custody, and settlement*; XRPL is just a *secondary audit layer* to facilitate authorized banks’ real-time reconciliation, replacing the previously slow and costly reconciliation process
*The three “easily misunderstood points” you mentioned are all correct:*
1. *What runs on-chain is the record, not ownership:* XRPL holds a mirror image; who has the right to hold is *still determined by CSD BR*
2. *Tokens can be frozen and revoked; participants must pass identity verification:* *Permissioned access limited to KYC/AML-verified Brazilian companies and bank clients; CSD BR reserves the right to freeze and revoke transactions based on regulatory or court orders*
3. *What can be publicly read is only the circulation trace:* Every change on XRPL, including any revocations made by CSD BR, is publicly recorded; if there is a mismatch between the two sides,侥幸与失控 做交易久了，大部分毁灭性的亏损，往往不是源于一次看错方向，而是源于心底挥之不去的侥幸。 很多时候，盘面已经清清楚楚给出信号，行情已经朝着与自己持仓完全相反的方向行进。趋势已经背道而驰，逻辑已经被现实证伪，但我们依旧不愿意接受现实。 身体明明坐立难安，账户浮亏一点点在扩大，内心却还在不停期盼。总在期待下一秒就会反转，期待行情会按照自己内心预设的剧本运行。明明客观条件已经不再支持原有判断，却依旧抱着一丝幻想，不愿承认错误，不愿离场，不愿执行预先定好的风控。 一点点等待，一次次自我安慰，亏损从小亏演变成深套，局面慢慢走向不可逆。等到反应过来，已经走到无法回头的境地，损失已经惨重。 到了后期，人的心态会彻底破罐破摔。脑海里面会冒出消极的念头：大不了爆仓，亏完就算了。把生存的希望完全交给运气，放弃主观的止损与离场，把命运交给市场随机的波动。 奶油面包 我时常会想起那个经典的比喻：掉落的奶油面包。 面包从桌面滑落，我们内心无比期待落地的时候，是干净面包那一面接触地面。可现实往往事与愿违，大多时候，总是奶油那一面重重砸向地面。 这就是侥幸的本质。 我们主观期待一个对自己有利的结果，但现实Crypto Market Watch: Rally and Correction Coexist
$PUMP is currently at 0.005754, up 18.57% in 24 hours, with perpetual positions increasing by about 35.4% compared to 23 hours ago, showing clear new capital chasing the rally. However, resistance near 0.0060 has been tested multiple times. Bullish content accounts for 90%, indicating overheated sentiment. If the 1-hour candle closes above 0.00604 and holds on a pullback, a light long position can be taken with a stop loss at 0.00578 and a target of 0.00656; if the 1-hour breaks below 0.00556 and the rebound is weak, consider shorting with a stop loss at 0.00580 and a target of 0.00508.
$HYPE is at 85.98, down 1.63%, with positions increasing by 3.3% but no price push, indicating new positions have not formed sustained buying. OKX smart money longs account for 89.1%, but only 3 holders, and total positions are about $439,000 less than 24 hours ago. A high long ratio alone should not be the sole buy signal. Watch 84.80; if broken, consider shorting.
$ZEC is at 1,413, up 2.1%, with positions down 6.1%, the rebound looks more like a correction after position reduction. Watch 1,392; if it fails to recover, consider shorting. Before the core PCE release, reduce leverage and wait for confirmation.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $PHA AI+ privacy computing (TEE) small-cap elastic target, the trend has just started, but the market cap is small and volatility is fierce, suitable only for small positions to speculate on elasticity. Conclusion—logic is correct, on the trend, can hold, but don't overweight.
Why optimistic:
- The sector hits two main lines: Phala uses TEE trusted hardware to run AI inference, data and models are invisible to nodes, focusing on "AI execution layer" + privacy computing, which is exactly the missing link in this AI Agent wave. AI Agent Contract, SayGM inference, Redpill model aggregation continue to be implemented.
- Funds have entered: surged about 83% last week leading HTX weekly chart, named along with GRASS as the dual leaders of AI infrastructure; SOON Network strategic investment endorsement.
- Strong technicals: current price about **$0.068, +40% in 7 days, about +150% in 30 days; RSI about 63, ADX as high as 62 (strong trend), multiple moving averages giving buy signals.
Market and operation: market cap only about $55 million (ranked beyond 430), still about 95% down from ATH $1.39, large upside but light market cap, prone to sharp rises and falls. Support at $0.058, break below looks at $0.045; resistance $0.085–0.10, must hold to open a new round. Recommend small positions at $0.058–0.068 in batches to speculate on elasticity, set stop loss properly, do not chase highs. The most dangerous thing on the chessboard is not being in check, but when your opponent thinks you are only defending while you have already completed a sacrifice to gain momentum. $INJ in this game dropped 5.93% in 24 hours; most see a collapse, but I see the black side's pawn chain overextended—and my knight has already jumped to the 4.76 square waiting.
Look at the board structure. The short-term RSI is at 32.2, the long-term at 49.7, a typical misaligned midgame: short-term sentiment is nearly oversold, while mid-term remains balanced, indicating the selling pressure is panic-driven, not trend-driven. The Bollinger Bands give a key coordinate—the short-term price is at the 13% position, only 0.8% from the lower band; the mid-term is pressed to 2%, just 0.2% from the lower band. What does this mean? It means the price is almost at the bottom of the entire range, and any counterattack will form a breakthrough upward channel.
My position-building principle is always this: never confront the opponent at their strongest, but place pieces when their pawns have advanced beyond the point of no return. The current price is 4.92, and 4.76 below is the extreme extension point of this offensive, with 3.3% room to fall from the current price. That’s not risk; that’s my entry zone. True grandmasters never pay for chasing highs; we wait for the opponent’s pawn structure to self-destruct.
Now look at the targets. The first target is 5.31, corresponding to an 8.0% gain, right near the short-term upper band resistance; the second target is 5.42, 10.2%, close to the mid-term upper band. These two take-profit points are not arbitrarily drawn; they are two key squares I have calculated, where I will place pieces to consolidate. The stop loss is set at 4.19, a 14.8% depth, placed at a structural level—breaking below here means the entire game evaluation must start over, and then I accept the loss without lingering.
The rhythm of this game is: slow then fast, endure then strike. The market sentiment index is now hovering in the fear zone, exactly the harvesting zone for endgame thinking.
📈 Long:
Entry: 4.76 (current price -3.3%)
Take Profit 1: 5.31 (+8.0%)
Take Profit 2: 5.42 (+10.2%)
Stop Loss: 4.19 (-14.8%)
I mark this game as "Reverse Pawn Sacrifice after the Spanish Opening," where the winning move is not tomorrow but the moment the lower band is confirmed. #strategyplaybook$120M leveraged long—everything comes down to one question: does ETH keep falling?
The position is betting on a rebound in ETH, HYPE, and PUMP, with ETH making up the core.
Around 36K ETH at 25x, entry near $2,670 and liquidation around $2,581.
Less than $90 of room. With huge funding costs already piling up, even a small ETH dip can quickly magnify the risk. ⚠️
#USIranTalksRestart
#ZECNears1700NewHigh
#AMDWorldLabsAcquisition The key variable is not whether talks resume, but whether the sequence of concessions becomes credible enough for shipping risk to fade. With Brent near $100, even a partial easing in Hormuz uncertainty could matter for inflation expectations. Without it, energy risk may remain embedded in the macro backdrop.
#USIranTalksRestart $IMX The facade of this building is still being painted, but the load-bearing columns are already creaking.
I've done structural design for twenty years and have seen too many projects blow their entire budget on glass curtain walls. The 24H price rose by 3.56%, looking shiny, but if you measure it against the Bollinger Bands construction coordinate system—the short-term price has already stood outside the upper band, reading 111%, exceeding the upper band by 0.3%. This is not the structure topping out; it's the scaffolding being pushed to its limit by the wind. The mid-term channel position is 89%, with only 0.5% margin left to the upper band, meaning the building's second-floor eaves are completely cantilevered with no pull-back margin.
What makes me more cautious is that the short-term RSI has already burned up to 68.2, while the long-term RSI is only 52.8. The stress on the two beams is completely inconsistent—short-term overload, but the long-term is still laying the foundation. This is a typical case of secondary structure rushing ahead; the main body hasn't been inspected yet, but the decorative layer is already topped out. The signal given is SELL, and I agree with this judgment: when load distribution is uneven, the first to crack will definitely be the cantilevered end.
The current quote is $0.13, leaving 2.7% room for upward movement from my entry point. Once it finishes this last segment of pouring, it will be time to remove the formwork.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.13 (current price +2.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.12 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.12 (-4.2%)
Stop Loss: 0.14 (+13.2%)
Note that the stop loss is set at $0.14, 13.2% higher than the entry, which is equivalent to the allowable displacement of a seismic joint. If volume pushes it up beyond this, it means I misjudged the foundation depth and must exit immediately without hesitation. The take profit zone is at $0.12, a 6.2% and 4.2% drop relative to entry, which is a reasonable settlement amount for backfilling to the upper-level bearing platform—not a collapse, but a return to position.
By the way, the white paper is just a schematic—anyone can make it look good. What really determines whether this building can stand for thirty years is the construction continuity of the development team, the ecological reinforcement ratio, and the node stiffness of the cross-chain bridge. If the drawings can't pass review, no matter how flashy the facade is, it's an illegal building.
Now it stands 0.3% outside the upper band, which is the reading of the temporary support being stressed to the limit.After the report on Anthropic's IPO materials came out, the figure of about $42 billion in net losses is scary enough. But directly saying it "burned $42 billion in cash in one year" misrepresents the situation.
According to media paraphrasing of Reuters' report, about $34 billion of that comes from financing-related non-cash accounting expenses. It affects the net profit on the financial statements but does not mean the company actually paid that amount in computing power bills that year. This distinction must be made clear and should not be omitted for the sake of a sensational headline.
However, clarifying this part does not mean the operational problems disappear. Revenue is expected to approach $4.6 billion in 2025, but operating losses still exceed $8 billion. Rapid growth is true, and the heavy costs required to provide services and conduct R&D are also true.
What caught my attention even more is customer concentration: two customers contribute nearly a quarter of the 2025 revenue. Large customers can quickly bring scale but also have bargaining power. As product usage grows, how much profit remains in the end is worth spending more time studying than just the valuation target.
I am willing to pay for good AI products, but I am not willing to automatically accept any stock price just because the product is good. After going public, user experience and investment returns must be judged separately. At this stage, these figures come from media-reviewed IPO materials reports; once the official documents and complete financial standards are released, we can see if cost improvements continue. There is no need to irrationally defend the $42 billion, nor to treat all accounting losses as cash burned.
#Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损 Your summary is very accurate — *this is the core messaging of Quintenz at KBW2026, and also the real script in Washington now.*
I gathered some on-site information:
*1. His original statement matches the background:*
The agenda of KBW2026 this year starts with *“policy and market structure”*, Quintenz attended as *former CFTC commissioner, current a16z crypto policy head, and board member of Kalshi/Sui*, sitting next to Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Digital Assets Office. Right after the *September 15 procedural vote on the Senate Clarity Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold with a 49-50 vote*, these two institutions immediately took action using old powers.
*2. Your point that “exemption = temporary opening” is completely correct:*
- *On the SEC side: on September 17, they issued a 5-year Innovation Exemption*, allowing compliant licensed platforms to conduct *on-chain tokenized US stock trading* without registering as a securities exchange, *which is exactly what you said about “not enforcing a certain rule for now”*
- *On the CFTC side: in the same week, they issued no-action relief*, allowing passive software providers (including wallet interfaces) to connect directly to regulated derivatives markets without registering as introducing brokers, and also submitted a new crypto rule draft to the White House OMB for review BTC 依旧是市场主结构，ETH 用来观察资金扩散程度，而 SOL 更适合捕捉高 Beta 资金轮动。 📊 当前重点： • BTC：约 $83.1K，短线出现回撤，日内高点约 $84.5K • ETH：关注能否同步维持强势，观察 BTC 上涨是否向主流山寨扩散 • SOL：重点观察 $120–$132 区域的承接与突破表现 🔎 交易信号可以这样看： BTC ↑ + ETH/SOL ↑ + 成交量放大 + OI 健康增长 → 🚀 市场参与度扩大，资金正在从 BTC 向更高 Beta 资产扩散 BTC ↑ + ETH/SOL 跟不上 + 成交量下降 → ⚠️ 可能属于局部强势，暂时不能视为全面轮动 BTC ↓ + ETH/SOL 相对抗跌 → 👀 留意资金是否开始从 BTC 向 ETH/SOL 转移 BTC ↓ + ETH/SOL 同步走弱 + OI 上升 → ⚠️ 杠杆压力增加，短线波动风险可能扩大 📰 市场背景： 近期 BTC 一度突破 $86K，第三季度涨幅超过 40%，但最新市场数据显示上涨动能出现降温迹象，现货需求放缓、部分资金获利了结，同时美国国债收益率处于较高水平，🚨 This week's macro data is intensive, and BTC volatility may further increase!
Key focuses on Wednesday are US ADP, core PCE, GDP, and personal income/spending; on Friday, there is also the non-farm payroll data. Before the data release, funds may continue to reduce leverage.
📌 BTC key points:
Support near $83,000
Key resistance at $85,000
Breaking through and holding above $85K could further improve the short-term structure; breaking the support calls for caution about pullback risks.
Don't rush to chase the rally; first see how the data and price coordinate.📊
#BTC #Bitcoin #Macroeconomics #DailyOrbit$FIL Let's look at a set of data from BN smart money. Currently, the total long positions of BN smart money are 19 million, while the total short positions are 37 million. The short positions are exactly double the long positions, indicating significant short-term pressure. The possibility of miners dumping coins cannot be ruled out, so spot holders should keep only a portion and buy more on dips. At this position, neither going long nor short is appropriate. This position feels like a critical point—neither rising nor falling decisively. Therefore, it's better to avoid contracts. Let's go out and have a good time during the National Day holiday. Also, October is a month full of news events, with eight or nine news items expected. My trading principle remains to buy spot on dips and keep doing T continuously. Wishing everyone a happy and pleasant National Day holiday.OKXOrbitTopics#NVIDIA150BBuyback
On a thirty-meter-high scaffold, the steel pipes creak as the wind blows. The new worker below turned pale with fear. I wiped the cement dust off my face, feeling amused inside.
Recently, the macroeconomic turmoil has shaken the US stock market, causing $GOOGL to sway along, and many in the crypto circle started shouting that the whole building is about to collapse. From my years of experience plastering and tying rebar on construction sites, this is just a few gusts of wind blowing through the open corridors during a change of weather. Only the safety nets on the outer scaffolding are shaking; the load-bearing pillars inside remain untouched.
I stand by the mixer watching the market, feeling a bit puzzled about where these concept guys want to lead the project. On one side, Web3 is hyping dazzling 3D renderings, shouting daily about reconstructing the digital building; on the other side, traditional tech giants have massive construction volumes. The collision sparks dazzling flashes, causing market sentiment to fluctuate wildly, making it hard to tell if the project’s acceptance criteria have changed.
But I personally know that when looking at a building, you can’t just judge by how pretty the facade is painted; the key is the foundation. Google, this "old contractor," has been digging underground for decades. The search algorithms, cloud computing, and Android ecosystem poured in are all high-grade reinforced concrete, already penetrating the backfill soil and firmly anchored in the hardest bedrock.
Those new hot topics popping up in the circle every now and then, threatening to overturn this or reconstruct that, many projects haven’t even done proper geological surveys and dare to start construction and raise funds with just a few sketches. Such shoddy projects collapse at the first heavy rain; but the real giants, even if a few tiles fall off the outer wall, won’t have a single hairline crack in the load-bearing walls.
The market noise is like a big truck speeding past the construction site, kicking up a cloud of dust and deafening noise. But I hold the level in my hand; as long as those tens of thousands of tons of pile foundations underground haven’t settled, the tower crane can still operate steadily in the clouds.
A few gusts shaking the scaffold don’t mean they can shake the foundation drilled into granite. Such amateur talk might fool the owner but not the old bricklayer wielding a trowel every day.🏗️👷Market Express | 15-Minute Short-Term Observation
Overall Market:
Mainstream coins are consolidating at high levels with weak short-term momentum. MACD indicators are tangled below the zero line, indicating the market is in a "direction selection period." Avoid blindly chasing rallies or panic selling.
1. $BTC - Poised to Break Out 🐂
- Highlights: Positive news (sovereign wealth fund buying), strong long-term fundamentals.
- Short-term: Narrow fluctuations between 82,950 (support) and 83,175 (resistance).
- Strategy: Patiently wait for a breakout. A failure to break support can be seen as a healthy pullback; a break below requires caution.
2. $ZEC - Strong Consolidation 🔥
- Highlights: Huge recent gains (5x in six months), currently consolidating at high levels to digest profits, outperforming the broader market.
- Short-term: Support near 1,397 is effective, selling pressure is easing.
- Strategy: As long as it doesn't break the previous low of 1,376, the structure remains healthy. Watch for catch-up rallies or a second wave opportunity.
3. $ETH - Critical Test ⚠️
- Highlights: Weakest among the three, MACD bearish crossover downward.
- Short-term: Facing a critical support test at 2,661, precarious.
- Strategy: Focus on defense. If it breaks this level effectively, downside space may open; if it stabilizes, it could rebound with the broader market.
💡 Trading Advice:
Currently in a "dead zone" with shrinking volatility. For contracts, it is recommended to watch more and trade less, waiting for a breakout signal.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 📊 Illinois releases crypto tax details: stablecoins, DeFi, and cross-chain bridge transfers will all be subject to a 0.2% digital asset tax, and $BTC is also caught up in compliance discussions. Current price is 83,348.4, just above the support zone of 83,211–83,347, RSI at 45.6, momentum is weak. I'm watching to see if this support holds. If it breaks below 82,224, it becomes invalid, meaning the bulls can't hold this wave. Do you think this support can hold?#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 💡 Why has the rate hike expectation fallen, yet the crypto market hasn't surged?
👀 Because in the previous environment of gold plummeting and US Treasury yields above 5.2%, the crypto market basically: didn't crash, but no funds dared to rush in.
If stablecoin net growth doesn't accelerate, it means a "wait-and-see market." $BTC is more like the risk asset suppressed by US Treasury yields, not an independent bull market.
🛡️ With PCE and non-farm payrolls coming consecutively, volatility will increase.
Watch three simultaneous signals:
1️⃣ 10Y US Treasury yield (fall → good for crypto; continue breaking highs → pressure on crypto)
2️⃣ US Dollar Index DXY (weak dollar = friendly to risk assets)
3️⃣ Stablecoin market cap / exchange net inflows (real capital entering means a reversal)
⚠️ Special reminder: If BTC surges after data but US Treasury yields don't fall, it’s likely a false breakout; $ETH / altcoins shouldn’t be chased when "meeting expectations," have more bounce when "below expectations," and avoid catching a falling knife when "above expectations!"
(Source: OKX Planet 09/30)
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 🚨 BTC enters a critical macro week.
US ADP, Core PCE, GDP, Personal Income/Spending and Friday’s jobs data could trigger sharp volatility.
📍 Key levels:
$83K — support zone
$85K — key resistance
$87K–$88K — next upside area
A clean break above $85K with volume could strengthen short-term momentum, while losing $83K would increase downside risk.
Trade the reaction, not the headlines. 📊
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #DailyOrbitConfirmed, what you said is the reason for this morning's dump — *$LIT flash crashed 20% to $3.74, the logic is "expectation of binding fell through"*.
*Official announcement breakdown:*
- On the morning of September 30 Beijing time, Robinhood announced at the annual meeting *Hood Summit 2026*: *perpetual contracts will be available to eligible US users, executed through their acquired Bitstamp, provided by Robinhood Derivatives*, which is a CFTC-registered futures broker
- Products: *BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE* 8 in total, *BTC/ETH up to 10x leverage, others 3x*, no expiration, PnL settled every 15 minutes, promotional fee rate *0.01% until the end of the year*
- Acquisition background: Bitstamp was *acquired for $200 million in June 2025*
*Why did $LIT plummet?*
$LIT used to trade at a premium over all Perp DEXs, with the core narrative being *"Lighter is expected to leverage Robinhood to channel retail flow across the US"*. Previously, Robinhood's overseas perpetuals used Lighter, but *this time in the US they chose their "own son" Bitstamp, not Lighter*
Market interpretation is what you said:
> Lighter did not get this core order flow, which impacts its trading volume and fees,$WLD +2.12%, this increase is negligible compared to Worldcoin. Although Altman’s halo effect is present, privacy controversies and high unlocking sell pressure remain a sword hanging overhead.
If tonight’s US data is negative and market panic spreads, controversial coins like WLD will be the easiest targets for sell-offs. Watching this slight green, I feel uneasy. This doesn’t look like a rise, more like a breather in a downtrend.
I hold WLD purely out of faith in the future of AI, but that faith looks so pale in the face of real financial losses. Tonight, I’m watching the market closely; if the data is off, I will run without hesitation. This is not betrayal, it’s survival. In crypto, sentiment doesn’t pay the bills. WLD, if you can perform, then rise; if not, don’t blame me for being ruthless!$ZEC 这一条线，追到这里。 前面我一直在查： “490万枚 ZEC 进入隐私池，到底意味着什么？” 但查到最后，有一个事实必须说清楚： 490万枚，并不能简单理解成“一笔490万枚ZEC神秘进入Ironwood”。 截至最新链上数据，Zcash 全网大约有 489万枚 ZEC 位于隐私池。 其中 Ironwood 当前约 399万枚。 而从已经封存的 Orchard 池迁移到 Ironwood 的累计数量约 323万枚。 数字看起来很大。 但数字大 ≠ 背后一定有大户。 这就是我连续扒了这么多篇之后，最想告诉大家的一件事。 ⸻ 真正值得看的，其实是： 资金从哪里来？ 什么时候进入？ 进入的是哪个池？ 是不是同一批资金？ 有没有后续动作？ 而不是看到一个“490万”就直接脑补： “庄家进场了。” “有人要拉ZEC了。” “内幕资金正在布局。” 这些，我都没有证据。 Ironwood 是 Zcash 在 2026 年 7 月 28 日启用的新隐私池，旧 Orchard 池则进入只允许退出的状态。 所以一部分资金持续迁移，本身就有协议层面的原因。 这才是链上调查最容易被忽略的地方。 ⸻[Old Chive Observation] "US Stock Earnings Season, One Coin Truly Worth Watching: RENDER"
#StockEarningsSeason $RENDER
In the coming weeks, US stock earnings reports will continuously answer one question:
Are AI companies still pouring money into buying computing power?
Today, let's look at Micron.
HBM demand, AI server memory, profit margins, and next year's guidance will all serve as windows for the market to judge AI infrastructure demand. Later, we'll look at capital expenditures from giants like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta.
At this point, looking back at RENDER becomes quite interesting.
Render itself is a decentralized GPU computing network where GPU providers supply computing power to the network, and users pay for computing tasks. So what really matters is how much actual workload and paid demand the network generates in the future, and how much RENDER token consumption these usages ultimately bring. This is the biggest difference I see between RENDER and many pure AI concept coins. Earnings reports are just upstream validation; RENDER's own network usage and token consumption are the final validation.
RENDER has recently risen from $1.3 to around $1.9, even hitting $2.09 on September 28.
If it can stabilize around $1.86–1.90 on a pullback, it might be worth considering
Entry: $1.86–1.93
Take Profit: $2.05 / $2.20 / $2.40 / $2.65 / $3.00
Stop Loss: $1.78 $ARB Dear teachers, the current price of ARB is 0.20094, closing lower on the daily chart.
There are a total of 346 whale accounts, with a nominal long-short ratio of 77.55%. 201 long whales have an average entry price of 0.21459, currently at an unrealized loss; 145 short whales have an average entry price of 0.183197, also trapped in losses. Both long and short sides are locked in a loss tug-of-war, representing a typical long-short double kill market.
The daily MA5 and MA10 moving averages are both pressing above the price, indicating strong resistance to a short-term rebound. The attack level is 0.207, and the defense level is 0.194.
In this kind of oscillating market where both longs and shorts lose money, stop-loss sweeps back and forth are normal. Do not subjectively predict the direction; patiently wait for the market to choose a breakout.凌晨刷合约的时候，我突然有点想笑。 为什么大家都在盯K线，却没人看那张真正决定方向的资金费率表？ 这两天我把BTC、ETH、SOL、XRP、HYPE的衍生品结构翻了一遍，感受很微妙。价格看起来各走各的，但杠杆那头其实早就连成了一根绳子。 先看最核心的信号。BTC的未平仓合约一直挂在偏高位，可价格没有跟着放大波动，说明什么？多空都在加码，但没人愿意先撤。这种状态最怕的不是方向错，而是某个小催化剂触发一边的止损，然后形成挤压。上涨挤压会让空头被迫回补，下跌挤压会把追多的浮筹直接扫掉。方向没出来之前，仓位本身就是风险。 ETH这边更像一个被低估的弹簧。资金费率比BTC温和，杠杆没有那么拥挤，但生态里的再质押、Layer2叙事一直在悄悄吸筹。它的问题不是没人买，而是买的人太有耐心，短线缺少爆发点。一旦BTC稳住，ETH的补涨往往来得又快又安静。 SOL是情绪温度计。链上活跃、meme热度、合约持仓同步走高，这三件事凑在一起，意味着它现在交易的不是基本面，而是风险偏好。只要市场敢冒险，SOL就敢跑；但一旦BTC掉头，它的杠杆撤退速度会比谁都快。这就是高beta的代价。 XRP更像一张被压在桌角的#Anthropic discloses $84.5 billion SpaceX computing power agreement
The boss has something to say
Anthropic's prospectus reveals big numbers again. The computing power agreement with SpaceX is up to $84.5 billion, lasting until 2029, mainly using Nvidia chips. Along with the previously disclosed $518 billion long-term infrastructure commitment, this company's computing power bill will exceed $600 billion in the coming years.
But looking at revenue. In 2025, revenue is $4.59 billion, operating loss exceeds $8 billion, computing power expenditure is $7.33 billion. Spending $7.3 billion to earn $4.5 billion, the gap is still widening.
I believe these numbers clearly expose the contradictions in the AI business model. Computing power investment is astronomical, revenue growth, no matter how fast, can't catch up. Jeffrey Park publicly questioned Anthropic's IPO risk-reward structure, and market controversy over the high valuation is heating up.
This is indirectly bearish for the crypto market. AI giants continue to attract capital, risk funds remain in hardware and cloud infrastructure, liquidity from Bitcoin and altcoins is being drained. The Fed just raised interest rates, 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.6%, the high interest rate environment remains unchanged. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I have already exited my long Bitcoin position at 84,000, pocketing 1,200 points profit, now in cash. Tonight's PCE is key; I won't bet on direction before the data comes out. If it can hold near 82,000 on a pullback, I will consider light buying.
No chasing highs or panic selling, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.NVDA just added about $150 billion more to its buyback authorization, but yesterday's close fell from a high of about 232.8 down to around 227. Don't mistake buybacks for a breakout signal to chase.
Here's what happened: The board increased the buyback authorization by about $150 billion, raising the remaining authorization to about $235 billion, planned to be used through fiscal year 2028, surpassing Apple's $110 billion authorization for 2024.
On 9/28, the stock rose about 1.7% to close around 228.9; on 9/29, it hit a high near 232.8 but closed around 227.2, down about 0.7%, still stuck below the resistance at about 236.
On the same day, ARK reportedly bought about $78.8 million of NVDA shares while reducing AMD; year-to-date NVDA is up about 20%, clearly underperforming AMD's doubling rally.
Simply put: The company is putting real money on the table signaling undervaluation, but the market hasn't broken through resistance — buybacks show confidence but don't mean an immediate breakout.
My view: With nonfarm payrolls, PCE, and US Treasury yields still high, and the AI narrative noisy, I don't see this as a buy signal yet; I'll watch and not chase the highs.
For now, I'll just observe and firmly avoid chasing this pullback; if it fails, watch for a renewed break below about 213, or if it can't bounce past about 236 before considering entry timing.
Do you think it will first grind past 236 to confirm the buyback, or pull back to 213 before buying in?
$NVDA $AMD $AVGO
#ThisWeekKeyNonfarmAndPCEData
#USTreasuryYieldsHitHighestSince2007GoldDownOver3%Common Methods of Theft Explained
1. Scan code authorization
2. Phishing by mimicking transfer record addresses
3. Installing unknown apps that access your photo album, where mnemonic phrase screenshots may be stored
4. Copying mnemonic phrases that are read from the clipboard by viruses on the phone
5. Connecting to unknown Wi-Fi and having your data monitored
6. Mnemonic phrases captured by public cameras
7. Fake wallets
8. Shared power banks or hotel shared chargers—any device plugged into your phone that requires access permission could potentially steal your tokens
9. Crimes committed by acquaintances
Everyone, please pay attention to these 9 points and be sure to protect your wallet.
Wallet Precautions:
First: Always download wallets from the official website. Do not download from links sent by strangers or search for them online yourself.
Second: Mnemonic phrases must be well preserved. Do not copy, screenshot, or photograph them casually, and never share them with others. Be sure to write them down correctly in a notebook and keep it safe. It is the only, only, only way to recover your assets.
Third: Do not authorize carelessly, do not authorize carelessly, do not authorize carelessly.
Fourth: Do not add tokens from red-flagged free airdrops, do not add, do not add.
Fifth: When participating in investment projects, be sure, be sure, be sure to create a new wallet.
Sixth: Do not buy or sell tokens with strangers online.AAVE surged 15% in a single day with volume and price confirming the move rather than a fake pump
The 4-hour candle went straight from 146.98 to 163.84
Trading volume was 26,361, more than six times the previous 4,376
This is not a pulse, real money is pushing it
Over the full 24 hours, it rose from 145.22 to 169.07, an increase of 15.27%
The upper boundary of the 60-candle range at 169 is right overhead, current price is hugging 168
The 4-hour price has stabilized above 164, the gap at 155 has been fully filled
Funding rate +0.0100%, longs are paying in this long-short divergence
So my judgment is, the breakout is valid but the position is already uncomfortable
The cost-effectiveness of chasing higher is decreasing; a healthy sign is a pullback to 164 without breaking it
Light positions wait for the pullback, heavy positions watch if 169 can hold
$AAVE $BTC $ETH #DeFi #Aave$ETH — $2,674 👀
Up about 0.4% in the past 24 hours, currently still holding the $2,640 support level.
💰 Trading volume: approximately $15.47B
📊 Market cap: approximately $328.46B
Key levels:
🔑 $2,700 = first short-term resistance
🚀 If the hourly close is strong above $2,700, the $2,722–$2,822 range can be watched next
🛡️ $2,640 = current support
📉 $2,605 = 20-day EMA
⚠️ Further support at $2,544 / $2,432
In terms of capital, large holders have increased their positions by over 320,000 ETH in the past week, valued at about $864M. Large market transactions are also worth continued attention.
The key focus next is: can $2,700 be effectively broken and held? 👀
#ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSDT #MicronEarningsAhead #OKX #DailyOrbitIt’s late September, and $BTC is caught in a tug-of-war.
The price is stuck around $83,342, down from a recent push toward 84,000 and $85,000** every time price approaches that zone, supply floods the market.
On the other side, institutions aren't blinking. Bitwise’s research head revealed that 15 major institutions pensions, endowments, sovereign wealth funds held through the brutal correction from $125,000 to $60,000. Some added to positions. Wells Fargo sits at 2–3% allocation; 前面两篇，我一直在追： 490万枚 $ZEC 到底发生了什么？ 但继续往下查以后，我发现一个更值得问的问题： 这些ZEC进入隐私池之后，还有没有继续移动？ 因为一旦进入 Shielded Pool，外部观察者能直接看到的信息就会大幅减少。 所以真正值得追踪的，不再只是： ❌ “490万枚是不是进去了？” 而是： 🔎 进入之前，资金从哪里来？ 🔎 进入之后，是否还有可观察的资金动作？ 🔎 是不是同一批资金？ 🔎 有没有新的地址在接力？ Ironwood 本身就是 Zcash 新的隐私池，主网已经于 7月28日 激活。现在社区甚至已经在做 Ironwood migration、pool flow 和 migration cohort 等链上分析。 所以这条线，我准备继续往下扒。 不猜庄家。 不猜内幕。 也不预测ZEC价格。 只看： 地址 → 时间 → 交易 → 资金路径。 如果最后发现只是一次普通迁移，我照样告诉你。 但如果后面真的还有东西…… 那490万枚，可能只是故事的开头。 🕵️ #ZEC #Zcash #链上侦探 #IronwoodIt's over, this $ZEC has completely softened this time, can it still return to 1700?
Previously, it surged so fiercely, now the pullback is just as tormenting.
It fell all the way from 1459 to 1376, now barely breathing around 1396.
The candlesticks are completely suppressed by the EMA band (1398-1405), not even touching the middle Bollinger Band, the bulls have no fight at all.
The MACD underwater green bars haven't expanded, but overall it's still weak.
Looking at its 7-day drop of -10.08%, it rose too much before, and this wave of profit-taking is indeed fierce.
The 1389 support is precarious, once it breaks below the previous low of 1376, the downside space may open further.
Trying to return to 1700 in the short term is really difficult, unless the overall market strongly leads a rally.
Short-term traders shouldn't rush to catch the falling knife, this kind of weak asset with a slow decline is the most tormenting.
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 These past few days, thanks to ONE, I recovered some capital
But the market heat is starting to decline
Had no choice but to play XDP
Already shorted it
Contract profits in the last 30 days
ONE earned 1204
AKE earned 790
IOST earned 696
LAB earned 594
BTC lost 379
Overall still profitable
ONE really is a lucky star
Several short orders were fully filled
ONE's heat has cooled down
Volatility has decreased
Not much profit left
XDP is a new coin
Just launched
High volatility
Many opportunities
So switched to XDP
Current price 0.0238
24-hour high 0.026
Low 0.02217
Three moving averages converging
Direction unclear
But new coin
High volatility
Suitable for short-term trading
Already shorted it
Position not large
Stop loss set at 0.026
Target 0.022
New coin
Quick in and out
ONE's luck has run out
Switched to XDP
New coin with high volatility
Many opportunities
But also high risk
Small position to test the waters
Quick in and out
Run once target is reached
No lingering in battle
$XDP $BTC $ETH
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 9/30 BTC Market Outlook
BTC has been oscillating between 82500 and 85000 for nearly a week, with the market repeatedly spiking up and down, causing a very exhausting consolidation.
Observing the rebound highs, we can see that the highs are gradually moving lower, the candlesticks are continuously narrowing, the pattern is converging, and trading volume is steadily shrinking. As the old saying goes, a prolonged sideways movement usually leads to a drop; the support at 82500 is unlikely to hold with high probability.
Tonight's core PCE data is the key catalyst for this market turning point.
If the PCE figure exceeds market expectations, the price will quickly break below 82500; if the data meets expectations, the market may continue to tug back and forth around 83000 for some time. From a short- to mid-term perspective, the overall market direction is already bearish.
Of course, this does not mean the bear market has arrived; it is just a healthy correction within a bull market. The turning window is approaching, so short-term downside risks need to be taken seriously. Manage your positions well and wait patiently for the right opportunity. $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $BTC Big brother Maji has pushed the market to a new level — $150 million, all perpetual longs, triple positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL, zero hedging, pure naked exposure.
Compared to the previous $93 million set, the scale has expanded, and the leverage midpoint has also risen. The division of labor remains the same: BTC supports the base, ETH is the absolute core heavy position, and SOL serves as the high-elasticity offensive position. The problem is that the risk attributes of the three targets are almost identical; if one prospers, all prosper, but if one suffers a loss, it’s a triple hit.
The timing is particularly intense: tonight PCE leads the way, followed by non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve officials are speaking intensively, and any slight shake in U.S. Treasury yields will cause this $150 million net value to fluctuate. The market is already clearly under pressure; every weak rebound after a rally is testing his defensive line.
His old playbook is to tough it out, add margin, and buy time. The whale has ample ammunition and can repeatedly tug in the high-pressure zone.
What ordinary people should clearly understand is this: you don’t have his margin for error; blindly copying his full unilateral exposure is like gambling your monthly salary against his pocket money. Remember that day some time ago, at 3:15 AM, my finger hovered over the "One-Click Market Close" button for a full three minutes, watching the $BTC candlestick plunge like a waterfall, with the sound of short sellers' profit notifications ringing in my ears, my heart pounding like a drum. At that moment, all I could think was, "Cut losses quickly, if it falls further the principal will be halved, wait until it drops to 70,000 to buy back."
In the end, I took a deep breath, closed OK, threw my phone to the other side of the sofa, and went to the bathroom to wash my face with cold water.
When I woke up at dawn, $BTC had dipped to a bottom and then rebounded, closing with a long lower shadow on the chart. If I had pressed that button last night, I would have been the cannon fodder at the very bottom of that shadow. Countless lessons have taught me: every time you want to "cut losses and wait to buy back at a lower point," the main algorithm is placing millisecond-level orders, lying in wait at the most panic-stricken positions.
In the face of extreme volatility, human fear is the main player's best harvesting scythe. Control your hands, turn off your market orders, get some sleep, the sky won't fall."Big BTC deep V, ZEC takes a hit, surviving is winning"
Last night the crypto market staged another massacre. BTC once broke below 83,000, hitting a low of 82,563, triggering a flood of stop-loss selling. But before dawn, bulls fought back with a strong bullish candle reclaiming lost ground, now trading around 84,000. When it falls, they call it a bear market; when it rises, they call it a bull market—both longs and shorts get hit, sentiment whipped back and forth.
$ETH mirrored the deep V, bouncing from 2,650 all the way up to 2,740, erasing yesterday’s losses. Capital is flowing back, but it has strong momentum following BTC; when BTC pauses, ETH softens first, so chasing highs requires caution.
The worst hit is $ZEC. Currently around 1,370, down over 12% in a single day. After touching 1,695 on September 26, it dropped a full level in three days, losing 1,500 and 1,450 support consecutively, next support at 1,300. The sharper the rise, the harder the fall—slow buyers are getting run over.
This week, non-farm payrolls and PCE loom overhead, volatility can spike anytime. Cash is king; if you’re itchy, only take small positions, don’t gamble your living expenses on tomorrow. Heavy positions aren’t investments, they’re donations.
Dancing on the edge of a knife, survival is always more important than how much you make.
$BTC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 SHIB还有未来吗？我觉得真正的问题已经不是“是不是Meme币” SHIB还能不能走出来，关键已经不是社区够不够大，而是它能不能把Meme流量真正变成生态需求。
现在的SHIB，已经不只是一个Meme币。Shibarium作为以太坊L2，目前官方数据显示已经累计超过8亿笔交易、激活钱包超过200万，生态还在继续扩展。
但这里有个很现实的问题：生态做大，不等于SHIB价格一定上涨。
SHIB真正的压力依然是供应量巨大，单纯靠小规模销毁很难改变供需结构。近期数据显示，30天销毁约4.77亿枚SHIB，但相对于数百亿亿级的流通规模，实际影响仍然非常有限。
所以我对SHIB的判断很简单：
第一阶段看Meme情绪，第二阶段看Shibarium活跃度，第三阶段才是看SHIB能不能形成真实需求。
真正的牛市逻辑应该是：BTC上涨 → 市场风险偏好提升 → Meme板块轮动 → SHIB流动性回升 → Shibarium使用增加 → 生态收入和销毁机制增强 → SHIB需求进一步提升。
如果只能停留在“涨了就喊销毁，跌了就等下一轮Meme”，那SHIB依然只是情绪资产。
但如果Shibarium真的持The past five days have been characterized by repeated oscillating market conditions. Bitcoin's volatility range is between 82,600 and 85,100. Buy on dips near 82,500-83,000 and sell on rallies near 84,500-85,000; Ethereum's volatility range is between 2,650 and 2,750. Buy near 2,650 and sell on rallies in the 2,750-2,800 range. This approach allows for repeated profits and is more controllable than so-called one-sided markets. Without absolute news to drive a one-sided market currently, maintaining a calm mindset and patience is key to repeatedly profiting #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 ⭐⭐A trader who made over 100 million in profit is now poorer than you and me…
⭐The trader's positions are flowing out, caught on both long and short sides, stuck in an extreme hold:
✅ ETH 100X full long: slight pullbacks cause unrealized losses, extremely limited margin for error with such high leverage
✅ ZEC 50X full short: market moves opposite, losses are the most severe
✅ BTC 5X full short: also in unrealized loss
Betting on both long and short sides, the market moves entirely against them. Although no warning has been triggered yet, this is a hard hold against the market, betting against the current trend.
⚠️The above is only a market review observation and does not constitute any trading advice. @OKX星球 🔥 $BTC LIQUIDITY ALERT — WATCH THE NEXT MOVE! ⚡
TRADE SETUP 🧭 $BTC / USDT TRADE – SHORT 📉
ENTRY: $83,050 – $83,350 TP1: $82,700 TP2: $82,350 TP3: $82,000 TP4: $81,600 STOP LOSS: $83,700
💥 A $41.569K BTC long liquidation was recorded near $82,971. Price could face more downside if sellers stay in control. Watch for rejection before entering — confirmation is key.
⚠️ Manage risk. Don’t overleverage. Wait for confirmation before trading.
#OctoberRateHikeOdds $BTC
From the perspective of the major trend, BTC has a clear support level at 72-74k, another support at 76k, and a support zone at 79-82k.
The 72-74k range has historically been a point where the major trend has repeatedly fallen to, serving as a pivot for declines or rallies.
The 76k level has been tested multiple times during this rally, so the buying pressure here is strong.
The 79-82k range has also been tested many times in the past.
More specifically, the top of this rally is at 87k. If it falls to the following three levels, the respective drawdowns are:
- 72-74k: a drop to 72k represents an 18% decline, to 74k a 15% decline
- 76k: a 13% decline
- 79-82k: a drop to 79k is a 9.5% decline, to 82k a 6% decline
Learning from history, let's look at the drawdowns during previous bull market beginnings:
In February, April, and July 2023, there were pullbacks of around 20%