72 hours. The bill doesn't even qualify to be put on the table.
Monday, August 3rd.
The Senate announced this week's agenda.
The CLARITY Act is not on top.
Instead, it was H.R.6500—a funding bill that had nothing to do with cryptocurrency.
On August 7, the Senate adjourned.
Time left for the bill: 72 hours.
But the problem is—they haven't even reached the starting line.
You think 72 hours is long?
Let me break down the Senate's inhumane procedures:
The first hurdle: submitting a cloture (termination of debate) application, which requires signatures from 16 senators.
16 people. Sounds like nothing? This is a request for "Stop arguing, just vote directly."
Second hurdle: Cloture voting, requires 60 votes.
The Republicans held 53 seats, Hawley and Paul clearly opposed it, McConnell did not vote again after being hospitalized—a reliable vote count of at most 50.
At least seven Democrats would need to be pulled in.
These seven people have been stuck on the bill for two months.
The third hurdle: even if the cloture passes, you can still debate for another 30 hours.
30 hours. Only after the debate is done that a vote on "whether to enter the review" is "not to vote on the bill itself."
Even if the green light is clear, the cloture vote will take place as early as Friday (August 7).
And then? The meeting is adjourned.
The bill itself? The interrogation hasn't even begun.
Do you now understand where the problem lies?
Wednesday (August 5) is the last chance to submit your Cloture application.
Thursday? It was too late. Friday? The meeting is adjourned.
So—if 16 people don't sign today, this bill doesn't even have a chance to be "vetoed." Directly stillborn.
How does the market view it?
BTC fluctuated between $63,000 and $63,500.
But don't be fooled by the price—trading volume plummeted by 71%.
Duokong dared not move.
Why? Because everyone is waiting for the same signal: is there still any chance for the bill?
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is between 26% and 31%.
At the beginning of the year, this figure was 82%.
From 82% to 26%. It has dropped 56 percentage points in half a year.
Galaxy Research is even harsher—cutting the price directly from 50% to 30%.
Thirty percent.
Do you know what that means?
The market believes the probability of a bill passing is even lower than the probability of guessing heads and tails by flipping a coin.
To put it bluntly—
Last week, Grayscale was also urging the Senate to vote quickly.
Finance Minister Besent made a public statement.
Industry representatives have contacted Congress over one million times.
Is it useful?
As soon as Monday's agenda came out—there was nothing.
Both parties are still discussing ethical clauses, stablecoin yields, and whether officials can issue tokens.
A 616-page bill, stuck in just a few words.
The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto.
The Democrats say you're making too much money, and we don't believe this bill.
The Republicans say the terms can be changed, but voting should be arranged first.
Both sides are acting.
The most crucial sentence—
Even if the procedural vote starts this week, it will only leave a "measure" for the resumption in September.
Reunion in September? There are still two months left until the midterm elections.
By then, who will still be able to control your crypto bill?
The probability of passing by 2026 is shrinking by the hour.
If you still have a large amount of altcoins, bet on a wave of price surges after the bill passes—
You're betting on something that is 70% unlikely to happen.
Can I submit today?
My judgment: the probability is extremely low.
16 signatures are not enough. Seven Democrats can't find enough. It doesn't make it on the agenda.
Lummis said that for weeks, the bill has been on the agenda for a reserved place.
But "keeping a seat" and "having someone to sit on it" are two different things.
No movement today, just no movement.
Finally, let me say something heartbreaking—
Jiang Zhuoer said that if the CLARITY Act cannot be passed before the recess, Bitcoin may complete its final bearish dip.
The chip concentration in the $62,000–$63,000 range is as high as 8%, similar to the eve of the FTX collapse in 2022.
High concentration + negative news reallocating = violent redistribution.
You're not holding on.
You are waiting to be assigned.
$BTC$ETH$SOL #CLARITY法案剩72小时, the motion has not yet been submitted
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