Orbit Post Sitemap
8/7 Nonfarm Payrolls, tonight is a crucial battle 🔥🔥🔥
Tonight at 8:30, US non-farm payroll data will be released, and BTC and ETH are very likely to experience a sharp fluctuation
Haitang's judgment is that this data is more favorable for the crypto market. The reason is simple: the ADP employment data released a couple of days ago was far below expectations, indicating that the US job market is cooling down. If the non-farm payroll is also weak tonight, market expectations for a rate cut in September will further intensify, which would be positive for BTC and ETH
In addition, expectations of Fed rate cuts, reshoring U.S. manufacturing, financing demand for the AI industry, and high government debt pressures all make the low interest rate environment increasingly important
However, one thing to note is that the market has already anticipated rate cuts, so even if the data is positive, the market is likely to surge first and then see a wave of profit-taking
Haitang's approach tonight was simple:
Nonfarm payrolls are weak, which is positive for BTC and ETH; Now Ethereum 1900 can be lightly positioned and long
Exit when it rises, beware of pullbacks after good news materializes;
Tonight is destined to be anything but peaceful. Controlling your positions and patiently waiting for opportunities is more important than blindly chasing gains. #Storagestocks plunge after earnings, is the AI memory bull market still stable? 🕐 Current time: August 7, 15:43 | BICO Second Analysis: 11% Surge in 20 Minutes, Retail Investors Collectively Surge—Will They Dare to Chase This Time?
To start with the conclusion: 20 minutes ago I said, "Wait until it falls below 0.0385 before shorting," but it didn't break down. Instead, a big bullish candlestick pulled from 0.0383 to 0.0445, crushing all the shorts. Luckily, I said I'd wait for confirmation and didn't enter early—Yaobi's life was saved by confirmation on the right.
The situation has completely changed now, focusing on three key points:
First, the long-short account ratio jumped directly from 0.35 to 1.98. To put it plainly: 20 minutes ago, three people shorted the entire network before one went long; now, the opposite happens: two people go long for one person to short. Retail investors shifted from collective bearish to collectively bullish chasing—this consistent bullish trend has historically characterized the top area, not the bottom.
Second, the funding rate remains at -0.21%, marking eight consecutive periods of negative results. Short sellers are still paying tolls every day and getting liquidated, which means the momentum from short squeezes hasn't been exhausted, but the retail investors have already changed—now it's the bulls who are taking over.
Third, the divergence is even more extreme. The current price of 0.043 is 1.5 times the 20-period moving average, with the 4H position at 90.7% near the range top, up 267% over the 7th day. The faster the price rises, the farther it is from the moving average, and the tighter the spring of regression is pulled.
The daily upper shadow is still 3.2 times the real body—after today's surge to 0.0462, buying is clearly hard to hold.
Trading reference (more cautious this time than last time):
· Short: Break below 0.0423 (the recent platform low) to confirm a breakout before entering, no top prediction
· Or it may rebound to 0.0440-0.0445 to push higher and stagnate with short exposure
· Stop loss unified at 0.0465 (above the 24-hour high). If broken, admit your mistake and exit
· First target 0.0350, second target 0.0286, profit-loss ratio 1:1.7 to 1:3.3
The only thing to watch out for: in a squeeze market, the coin can pull several big bullish candlesticks. If volume surges above 0.0462, bearish logic is void—don't hold on.
How can I verify that what I said is nonsense? Open OKX and search for BICO, check the long-short account ratio, funding rate, 24-hour high-low points—you can find every number I mention. I suggest saving this first and checking the answer after 72 hours.
📌 Post as proof: Within 72 hours, BICO is 0.035; if you stand at 0.0465, I admit my mistake.
💬 Comment section battle: If you think it can still be shorted, click 1; if you think it's about to peak and pull back, click 2. Who is the next to dissect someone? Name them in the comments.
#行情分析 #妖币解剖 #BICO #深度SOL's attention rate is 1.29 times; what really depends on whether it can be sustained
At 14:00 (China time) on August 7, OKX Onchain OS recorded 26 mentions of SOL in one hour, about 1.29 times the 24-hour average, with the current tone being "bullish with clear advantage."
Here, we need to break down two things: faster mentions only mean more new discussions; Bullish or bearish dominance only indicates text classification; neither is the actual buy or sell order. In this round, X had 25 citations and 1 news story; the more concentrated the sources, the easier it is for a single narrative to be amplified.
I'll wait for the next snapshot to confirm whether the speed and source continue, then check spot transactions, funding rates, open interest, and on-chain usage. If the data can echo each other, this wave of popularity is worth looking forward to.#FedHawksVsWeakJobs July private payrolls added just 44K jobs — the weakest print in six months and way below the 75K forecast 📉
Normally, that would cool rate-hike expectations. Instead, markets still see roughly a 57% chance of a September hike because the Fed remains focused on inflation 😵💫
So now we have weaker jobs pulling one way and stubborn inflation pulling the other. Friday’s payroll report and next week’s CPI could flip the entire September narrative again.
Honestly, this macro tug-of-war is exhausting. Which matters more to the Fed now: jobs or inflation? 👀 #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Recently, a surreal scene unfolded in the US stock market: SanDisk and Western Digital delivered explosive earnings reports, with revenue and profits far exceeding expectations. SanDisk even offered $14 billion in buyback authorizations, but the results were immediately sold off by capital. SanDisk plunged 7% after hours, Western Digital dropped over 11%, and Korean stocks SK Hynix and Samsung were dragged down by pullbacks. Many insiders looked puzzled: with strong earnings, why did stock prices crash? Is this the end of this AI memory super bull market?
The core truth: it's not that AI demand has collapsed directly, but that stock prices have outpaced fundamentals.
This round of storage sector gains this year has been extremely exaggerated, with SanDisk's highest gain exceeding 460%. The market has already priced in the upcoming quarterly price increases and AI demand for HBM in advance into its stock price. The current financial data looks impressive, but the guidance for next quarter did not meet market expectations. The price increase slope has begun to slow, and gross margins have hit a temporary ceiling; Consumer storage for smartphones and PCs remains weak, with growth fully supported by the AI data center sector. Many profit-taking units have cashed out on positive news and fled, staging a "good news comes with negative news."
Here, we break down the two real-life scenarios and explain them thoroughly.
Scenario 1: The AI memory bull market has not ended and has entered the performance validation phase
HBM is a rigid demand for large AI models, GPU computing power depends on high-speed memory, cloud providers have signed numerous long-term supply agreements, and the medium- to long-term supply-demand gap still objectively exists. This wave of decline is essentially a valuation cut, not a demand cut.
As long as cloud giants like Microsoft and Google don't cut capital orders on a large scale, the underlying logic of AI storage remains. It's just that after saying goodbye to blind and mindless rises, every subsequent rally requires solid earnings reports to absorb high valuations, greatly reducing the margin for error.
Scenario 2: The supercycle has peaked, beware of the risk of backlash
Currently, the high profits of memory manufacturers mainly come from chip price hikes, not shipment increases. As companies expand production capacity and supply rises, if downstream cloud vendors can't withstand high prices and start cutting prices, storage prices will turn downward, causing industry profits to shrink rapidly. Combined with the continued slump in consumer electronics, cyclical volatility risks will be further amplified. Once this signal appears, the entire memory sector will undergo a deep adjustment.
Additional Bitcoin Chart Analysis
Storage is a sentiment indicator for AI growth assets, and there is clear cross-market linkage between the two. However, Bitcoin will not simply replicate the rise and fall of storage stocks. Currently, BTC is in a range-bound pattern, with fierce bullish and bearish tug-of-war.
Current market status
Bitcoin is currently grinding back and forth in a large box range between $63,000 and $65,000, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages entangled, showing no clear one-sided trend. ETF inflows are moderate, with no large-scale incremental inflows, and the market heavily relies on risk appetite in the US tech sector.
Key technical points
- Short-term resistance: 64,800-65,200 USD; only with increased volume and a stable position can there be room for upward expansion;
- First support: $63,200-$63,500, box center, bullish defensive position;
- Strong support: $62,000-$62,400. Once it is effectively broken, it signals a collective weakness in risk assets, opening up deeper pullback space.
Two types of linked simulations
1. Continued valuation drops in the storage sector: US AI stocks collectively pulled back, risk appetite weakened, and Bitcoin is likely to come under pressure and may test the lower boundary of the box at 63,200 or even 62,000. Don't rush to bottom-fish at this stage;
2. Storage is only a short-term profit-taking; going forward, HBM quotes and cloud vendor capital expenditure data will remain strong, and the AI sector will stabilize and recover, which will help Bitcoin break out of its box range.Four days ago, I spotted a promising signal about X Layer × USDG Earn, which the market still rarely discussed, and shared it with me. That was also my first article to surpass ten thousand views. Yesterday, I noticed that the X Layer leader sent a clear positive signal and posted a reminder. Today, OKB rose by 4 points. This may not prove that today's rally was driven by this news, but at least it captures the positive signals ahead of this rally. This is the magic of keeping an eye on industry trends and seeking opportunities every day. The deeper the love, the harsher the demands. I feel worried when I see strategies that might be unfavorable to OKB; When I see positive news that the market has not yet discussed, I will try to capture it as soon as possible. I'm not necessarily the most knowledgeable about OKB supporters online, but I'm probably among the ones keeping a close eye on them. So, based on the available information, let's discuss what might happen next. Two overlapping timings: 1. X Layer head Zakk stated: "The two weeks of absence were to confirm all the designs that drove the rise of the X Layer ecosystem." Everything is now fully prepared. A series of moves in the X Layer ecosystem will be rolled out one by one starting mid-August: TVL, RWA, DeFi, MEME. 2. According to currently disclosed information, the second phase of OKX Outcomes will focus on the five major European football leagues, also starting in mid-August. I don't think this is just a simple coincidence of time. Combined with Zakk's tweet, August今晚八点半，非农。本周终极裁判。
ADP 给了 44K，预期 68K，一个很强的下行信号。初请 199K，好于预期的 203K，又往回拉了一把。两个数据方向相反，市场在两头拉扯。
VIX 挂在 15 出头，极低位。整个市场在为软着陆定价。任何方向的意外都会被放大。
三个情境。NFP 低于 10 万，衰退交易，防御加黄金加美债。NFP 在 12 到 16 万之间，预期之内，软着陆叙事继续。NFP 高于 16 万，软着陆确认，下周追价值、周期、小盘。
Mag7 里 $AAPL 唯一收红，涨了不到半个点。$GOOGL 跌一个多点最弱。$NVDA 平盘挂 219 美元。$AMD 跌七个点，$ALAB 跌十二个点暴雷，但 SOX 指数还涨了 0.33%。芯片内部在分化。
美元兑日元周一跌到 155，今天回到 158。日本没有再大量抛美债买日元。
今晚不赌方向。VIX 低位给了期权不对称回报。数据出来再动。
下周：周二 CPI，周三 PPI，周四零售销售。非农决定整个下周的交易框架。
以上为个人交易笔记，不构成投资建议。
#美股#交易笔记#NFPCore: Those who were tricked into coming in now need to see the truth
Many Core holders bought not because they truly understood the technology, but because they were driven by rhetoric like "Bitcoin security + high returns + the next big opportunity." They package complex mechanisms as guaranteed profits in public, but the actual implementation is far from impressive. Below, I'll break it down into three sections to clarify the situation.
1. The pancake of the poster vs. the actual edible food
Core's biggest selling point is the Satoshi Plus consensus: miners borrow hash power, BTC holders lock up non-custodial assets, CORE token staking—three parties select 31 validators together, sounding like they have both Bitcoin security and Ethereum smart contracts. Marketing pitches repeatedly emphasize "truly inheriting Bitcoin's security," "earning interest without handing over assets," and "ecosystem explosion imminent."
But reality is harsh. There are only 31 fixed validators, and decentralization is limited, making it easy for big players and mining pools to have a lot of influence. Whether miners borrow hash power is entirely voluntary; at the slightest sign of trouble on Bitcoin, Core's security narrative is immediately discounted. Non-custodial staking sounds appealing, but there are still few scenarios that can generate stable returns and scale steadily. The most highly anticipated product, SatPay (the new Bitcoin bank), will remain in small-scale testing until August 2026, with no public merchant transactions or a complete commercial closed loop. The ecosystem is almost entirely focused on BTCFi, with other tracks basically idle. Many so-called "applications" are just shell launches, with active users and real fee income being thin.
Many holders initially saw the grand narrative of "trillions in Bitcoin assets flowing into Core," but after actually entering, they found that their coins were mostly supported by token subsidies rather than solid commercial income.
2. The technology is complex, but problems arise very directly
Hybrid consensus may seem clever, but its complexity itself is a risk. The forced mainnet upgrade in January 2026 (v1.2.0) pushed a large amount of CORE and delegated hash power into a temporary unbinding state, triggering a cascade of lending protocol liquidations and halving token prices in a short time. The protocol runs as designed, with no "bugs," but the chain reaction from the upgrade is real. During that round, many holders were liquidated or deeply trapped before reacting.
What's more troublesome is its weak value capture capability. The total token supply is fixed at 210 million, which sounds scarce, but circulation release, staking unlocks, and secondary market selling pressure are amplified in bear markets. The actual revenue from continuous buyback or burn at the protocol layer is limited, and much of the yield logic still relies on inflation and subsidies. Once subsidies weaken or market sentiment cools, price support becomes very vulnerable. There have been multiple large drawdowns in the past, market cap remains low for a long time, liquidity is insufficient, and large trades easily cause obvious slippage.
For ordinary holders attracted by "high returns" and "secure Bitcoin inheritance," these technical details were rarely fully explained at first. Many people only saw the glamorous side when buying, overlooking the drawbacks of few validators, dependence on external sources, easy upgrades to fail, and weak self-sustaining ability.
3. The reality faced by those who were tricked into entering now
A large number of holders entered the market at the peak of the narrative. They repeatedly reinforced "non-custodial," "hybrid consensus," and "BTCFi leaders," but rarely simultaneously emphasized risks: single ecosystem, product delays, centralization risks, strong dependence on miners and the Bitcoin mainnet, and upgrades potentially triggering chain liquidations. As a result, many people only realized that after their coins pulled back sharply from high levels, they realized they were not buying solid infrastructure, but an experimental project still validating their business models.
The technology itself is not without highlights; non-custodial BTC yield and EVM compatibility do lower some barriers. But these highlights currently cannot support the grand prospects once portrayed. There is still insufficient evidence for sustained revenue generation, attracting real users, and forming a positive flywheel. For those already holding on, it's better to calmly see clearly: limited validator numbers, slow ecosystem deployment, weak value capture, amplified market volatility—these are facts that have already happened, not the slogan "will solve it in the future."
The most common tragedies in crypto are often not complete technical failures, but rather that after expectations are overdrawn, ordinary participants become the last to take over. $CORE Right now, the latter is closer to the latter.
#美联储纪要: Interest rate hikes have been discussed, but rates remain unanimously maintained Currently, Perp DEXs are caught in a liquidity divergence between high accumulated funds and declining turnover rates. Although stock derivatives absorb some incremental volume, they cannot independently drive the overall ecosystem's market-making returns out of the trough.
Perp DEX trading volume across the entire network shrank 63.4% from its peak over the past 30 days to $498.2 billion, directly undermining the annualized return logic of the market-making treasury. Hyperliquid HLP's 30-day yield declined to 0.018%, and the pool size shrank by 21.8% to $215 million, proving that after the lack of high-frequency trading commissions, market makers are facing liquidity clearance pressure with returns reaching zero.
The order driving changes in capital structure is: contraction of on-chain risk appetite, asset class migration to traditional US stocks, and declining efficiency of market-making capital. Hyperliquid's cross-chain bridge funds grew 2.9% against the trend to $5.94 billion, indicating that capital remains within the ecosystem, only entering a low-turnover wait-and-see mode.
Traditional stock contract trading showed a partial compensation effect. Trade.xyz average daily turnover grew 32.1% to $5.134 billion, with stock contracts accounting for 62.7%, successfully offsetting nearly a 45% drop in Hyperliquid's crypto contracts. However, due to differences in trading friction and market depth, this increase has yet to be fully recovered in market-making returns across the network.
The next phase of the upward scenario is based on the strong synchronization of native crypto asset volatility and stock tokenization. If the average daily trading volume of stock contracts remains above $5.5 billion, and the on-chain crypto perpetual 7-day turnover rebounds by more than 30%, HLP yields will be anchored above single digits, attracting $5.9 billion accumulated in cross-chain bridges back into the market-making pool.
The downward scenario is triggered by regulatory friction and continued freezing of trading volumes. If US tokenized derivatives face regulatory review causing the Trade.xyz trading share to fall below 50%, and Hyperliquid's crypto daily average trading volume further drops below $2 billion, HLP's loss-avoidance liquidation protection mechanism will trigger a secondary liquidity contraction.
Regardless of how the market unfolds, if the HLP fund pool falls below $180 million and cross-chain bridge funds experience a three-day single-day net outflow exceeding 1%, the premise of stable sedimentary capital will be invalidated, leading to a comprehensive net capital outflow of the trading ecosystem.
In the next seven days, the key focus is whether Trade.xyz stock contract trading can remain above 60%, and whether Hyperliquid's crypto contract daily average turnover can stabilize and return to the $3.5 billion mark.
#西联稳定币卡落地, the Visa payment scenario is advancing #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, AI investment pressure is intensifying, #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻 oil price risks are heating up againWhen the ADP data came out, gold went wild. On August 5th, spot gold surged rapidly, with intraday gains reaching as high as 4.48%, consecutively breaking through the 4100 and 4200 levels. On August 6, it continued to surge, climbing back above $4,300 and setting a new seven-week high. The market is betting real money on one thing: weak employment→ cooling interest rate hike expectations→ benefiting non-interest-bearing assets. The logic is smooth, and the script is clear. What about BTC? Not a single move is needed, and it's still at 64,000 yuan. On August 7, Bitcoin fell intraday to $64,000, down more than 1% from the daily high. ETH fell below $1,900, with a total market cap of $2.285 trillion, down 0.3% in 24 hours. Following the same macro script, gold performed a bull market, BTC staged a sideways consolidation drama. Why? Some say: because the employment data isn't that bad. Indeed. ADP was only 44,000, far below the expected 75,000. But initial jobless claims have been below 200,000 for the third consecutive week, with only 199,000. The job market is weak, but not crashing. Some say: because the Fed is still hawkish. That's true. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September remains around 55%. Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook said that if inflation does not continue to cool, she is prepared to take policy action. Good news and negative factors cancel each other out, leaving BTC unable to find direction. But this is only the surface. The real reason lies in three breaking points. Disconnect 1: Coinbase's premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days. From May 19 until now, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been above the market for 80 consecutive days当前BTC继续维持窄幅横盘，市场已经进入典型的事件前价格压缩阶段。
从订单流结构来看，下方存在持续承接，使空头暂时难以推动趋势性下跌；与此同时，上方缺乏足够的增量现货买盘，价格也迟迟无法有效突破65,000美元。叠加今晚美国非农就业报告即将公布，市场资金没有明显提前押注方向，因此BTC长期维持在狭窄区间内进行低效率博弈。
随着横盘时间延长，65,000美元上方正在不断积累空头止损、突破型多单、空头强平以及趋势算法买单，因此该区域已经形成明显的买方流动性。
与此同时，63,800美元下方也在积累多头止损、突破型空单、多头强平以及趋势算法卖单，形成对应的卖方流动性。
因此，当前真正重要的问题已经不是提前判断BTC最终向上还是向下，而是哪一侧流动性首先被清扫，以及清扫之后市场是否愿意接受新的价格区域。
今晚20:30公布的美国7月非农就业数据将成为最重要的短线催化剂。市场目前预计新增就业约8万人、失业率维持在4.2%左右。由于当前市场仍在交易美联储下一步政策方向，明显偏离预期的数据可能迅速改变美元、美债收益率以及风险资产定价。
资金面方面，美国现货BTC ETF最近四个交易日连续净流入，累计约7.64亿美元。这是BTC近期多次回调却始终无法形成持续性破位的重要原因之一。不过，持续ETF流入并没有推动价格直接突破65,000美元，也说明当前新增需求主要起到吸收卖盘和托底作用，尚不足以完全消化上方供应。
因此，接下来我会重点观察突破后的现货成交量和价格接受程度，而不是只观察合约成交量。
如果BTC突破65,000美元时主要由未平仓量快速增加和空头清算推动，而现货成交量没有明显同步放大，并且价格很快跌回65,000美元以下，我会更倾向将其判断为一次上方流动性清扫。
反之，如果BTC放量突破65,000美元，随后缩量回踩并能够稳定站住该区域，则说明市场开始接受更高价格，ETF资金和宏观催化已经真正转化为趋势性买盘。
向下同理。如果BTC跌破63,800美元后迅速收回，则更可能属于多头流动性清扫；只有放量跌破63,800美元，随后反抽无法重新站回，才能确认下方突破有效。
现阶段最重要的策略仍然是等待价格完成突破和回踩确认，而不是在区间内部提前押注下一轮趋势方向。$BTC #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ There has been a lot of recent discussion about Uniswap acting as a launchpad. But this really can't be seen simply as DEX adding a token issuance feature.
After Pools.trade launched on Robinhood Chain, Uniswap effectively took a step upstream in the new token trading chain. Previously, a new project had to issue tokens elsewhere first to gather the initial users, and only when trading demand arose would Uniswap come in later to handle the swaps. Now, it wants to keep the entire chain of token creation, price formation, liquidity establishment, and subsequent trading within its own ecosystem.
The data is indeed impressive. On the first day of launch, Uniswap v4 on Robinhood Chain had a trading volume of about $73.6 million, while Uniswap v4 on Ethereum mainnet was around $47.2 million during the same period. By August 6, Pools.trade's cumulative trading volume had already exceeded $150 million.
The change in token issuance volume is even more striking. On August 4, there were only 457 new tokens issued within the Uniswap ecosystem, but on August 5, it surged to nearly 12,000. In the same period, Flap had about 6,500, Pons about 2,200, and Pons v2 about 2,500. Uniswap's daily volume surpassed the combined total of these platforms.
This speed is actually not surprising. Uniswap already has the trading infrastructure and liquidity, which is its core strength, something other launchpads can't match.
Regarding the specific mechanism, Pools.trade currently offers two methods: Crowd Launch and Instant Launch. After new tokens are issued, they go directly into Uniswap v4 liquidity pools with liquidity permanently locked, featuring automatic reinvestment and anti-sniping measures. The platform itself does not charge launchpad fees, mainly relying on the 0.25% LP fee from v4 pools.
This fee rate deserves a special mention. Many similar launchpads charge around 1% trading fees, so Pools.trade effectively reduces this cost to a quarter. This doesn't necessarily mean project teams earn more, but for high-frequency traders of new tokens, the fee difference is directly noticeable—the more frequent the trading, the greater the advantage.
So what Uniswap really wants to capture is not just the token issuance tool as a product, but the first wave of traffic after new assets emerge. Previously, launchpads were responsible for creating new assets and hype, while Uniswap handled the trading volume afterward. Now Uniswap positions itself at the entry point, so once a new token emerges, creation, initial liquidity, and secondary trading could all stay within its ecosystem.
This also ties into the old question about UNI. No matter how big Uniswap's business grows, the market always asks: what does this trading volume have to do with UNI?
This question still can't be avoided. A launchpad's explosive volume on day one doesn't mean UNI immediately gains a new valuation logic. But as Uniswap extends from simply handling trades to asset issuance, price discovery, and traffic entry, the trading chain the protocol covers is lengthening.
Especially starting December 2025, Uniswap protocol fees will be integrated into the UNI burn mechanism. If Pools.trade can continuously generate new assets and keep subsequent trading and liquidity within the Uniswap system, what really matters won't be how many tokens were issued, but how much sustained trading volume and liquidity these new assets ultimately accumulate, and whether protocol fees can further expand.
Out of 12,000 new tokens a day, only a few will survive. But that's the nature of the launchpad business—many projects fail, which is not scary. The platform needs a continuous flow of a few assets that achieve significant trading scale. As long as this cycle keeps turning, Uniswap gains what used to be the first entry point belonging to other launchpads.
It's still early to say UNI has opened a new narrative. But the direction has changed. Uniswap has moved from "others issue tokens, I handle trading" to "tokens can also start here." If this step ultimately converts issuance traffic into long-term trading volume, then UNI faces not just a short-term hype but an expansion of Uniswap's commercial boundaries. #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ Today is a special day. Unknowingly, it's already the beginning of autumn. Put on autumn fat at the start of autumn. What are the customs of your place? Nonfarm payroll data released at 20:30 Beijing time; current market expectations are as follows: • Nonfarm payrolls: +83,000, previous 57,000 • Unemployment rate: 4.2%, previous 4.2% • Average hourly earnings: 0.3% month-on-month, 3.5% year-on-year Leading signal: ADP small nonfarm payrolls 44,000, far below expectations Core data pricing priorities: Wages > new jobs > unemployment rate > previous revision Only trading one thing: timing of Fed rate cuts • Data hot → Delayed rate cuts, tightening liquidity • Cold data → Early rate cuts, Loose liquidity affects cryptocurrencies ($BTC/$ETH) 1. Far exceeding expectations (hawkish 📉) > 120,000, rising wages US Treasuries and US dollar strengthen, crypto sector under pressure and retreats 2. Meets expectations (neutral ⚖️) 60,000-100,000 RMB No new policy drive, short-term sharp spikes, then returns to original trend, no major rally 3. Far below expectations (dovish 📈) < 40,000, salary declines Easing expectations heat up, risk assets rebound for US stocks ($QQQ Nasdaq/Technology/Storage) 1. Far exceeding expectations (hawkish 📉) > 120,000, rising wages and rising interest rates suppressing valuations; Nasdaq, AI, semiconductors, and storage stocks suffered heavy losses; Financial value stocks are relatively resilient 2. Meets expectations (neutral ⚖️) 60,000-100,000 Short-term fluctuating back and forth, unchanged original main theme, sector differentiation continues 3. which was far below expectations$ETH ETH的护城河还在吗？⚔️
⚡ Solana、Avalanche、Sui等新一代公链正以极高性价比和用户粘性疯狂侵蚀以太坊的领地。SOL/$ETH 汇率在过去一年暴涨超300%，资金正在用真金白银进行“链置换”。
🧐 以太坊的叙事陷入了尴尬的夹层：说它是“世界计算机”，但L2繁荣后主网变得冷清；说它是“价值存储”，但通胀重启让这一说法站不住脚；说它是“Web3底层”，但市场更看好高性能模块化公链。
📉 DEX成交量占比：以太坊主网DEX日交易量占全市场比重已从一年前的65%降至如今的42%。Uniswap V3上最大的交易对已不再是$ETH /稳定币，而是稳定币之间的做市，可见投机活跃度大幅下降。
📌 但是！以太坊的开发者生态和节点去中心化程度仍是所有公链中最强的。这是它最后也是最坚固的护城河。只要有开发者在，生态就有复苏的种子。
✅$ETH 利好：开发者数量仍居榜首，EIP-4844（Proto-Danksharding）的后续升级仍在推进，长期技术路线清晰。
❌ 利空：短期资金被竞品大幅分流，“以太坊杀手”虽迟但到，叙事端面临严峻挑战。
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解
转发！SanDisk fell 8% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped 11% in after-hours trading.
The better the performance, the harder the drop.
The entire storage sector also crashed—SK Hynix fell over 10% intraday, Samsung dropped over 6%, and Kioxia plunged over 10%.
The person holding the storage shares was completely stunned.
"372% growth—isn't that enough?"
Not enough. Far from enough.
Where did the problem lie? Two words: expectations.
SanDisk's median next quarter revenue guidance is $10.55 billion, with market expectations of $11.15 billion.
The gap was less than 6%, and the stock price crashed by 9%.
Western Digital was even more unlucky — the median guidance for next quarter was $4.1 billion, actually higher than analysts' expectations of $4.06 billion. But it still fell 15% after hours.
Goldman Sachs summed it up in one sentence: "The core issue facing the current storage industry is not fundamentals deteriorating, but that market expectations have exceeded reality."
To put it plainly—
It's not that storage is failing; the market's expectations for storage have reached the point where "you have to be so perfect that even the guidelines need to be significantly revised."
SanDisk has risen 460% this year, and Western Digital has risen 200%.
All the good news had already been priced in.
But what really alerted me was another piece of news.
NVIDIA is evaluating downgrading the HBM configuration of Rubin Ultra.
What does that mean?
NVIDIA's next-generation AI flagship GPU was originally planned to feature 1TB of HBM4e 12hi memory. Now, due to severe HBM supply shortages, they are considering switching to the 8hi version or even downgrading to HBM4.
The memory capacity may be cut by a third.
The world's strongest AI chip company has been forced to proactively "downgrade" its spending.
This isn't a lack of demand. It's that supply is so choked that even Nvidia can't handle it.
This leads to an even deeper contradiction—
Is supply outstripping supply—is it a positive or a constraint?
In the past two years, the market has treated "supply shortage" as the biggest positive factor—price increases, soaring gross margins, and soaring performance.
But now the script has changed.
Supply outstripped supply→ HBM capacity was insufficient→ Nvidia was forced to downgrade→ AI chip performance was discounted→ cloud vendors had to buy more GPUs→ higher costs→ and AI infrastructure efficiency declined.
Each link in this transmission chain erodes the underlying logic of the "AI storage bull market."
What's even more heartbreaking is that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have already sold out all their HBM production capacity for 2027.
The final goods customers receive are only 60%-70% of what they initially requested.
Demand is still rising, and capacity is locked in until 2027.
This is not a "good day when demand exceeds supply"; it is a "prisoner's dilemma strangled by production capacity."
Divisions are turning into cracks.
Citi said: Low inventory, supply-demand adequacy ratio dropping from 70% to 50%, prices can still rise.
Morgan Stanley said: Memory contract prices peaked in Q4.
Renqiao Asset said: The storage industry may have already peaked.
Who is right and who is wrong?
I don't know.
But I know one thing—
When everyone in an industry believes "supply exceeds supply = prices will always rise," the real risk never lies in supply and demand itself—
And when it comes to 'everyone believes,'
Back to investment.
If you ask me: will you still continue to lay out storage now?
My answer is: yes, but no longer buying with eyes closed.
AI's demand for storage is real, structural, and long-term. SanDisk has signed 10 long-term agreements covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion, and more than half of supply locked in by 2027.
This is not a bubble. It is a real demand for money.
But stock movements never depend on "whether demand is real"—it looks at "whether expectations can be higher."
When expectations have already reached the point where "372% growth still feels insufficient"—
Every penny you earn is a bet against the market's most extreme optimism.
$XSNDK $WDC $XSKHY #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? BTC is trading sideways near $64,500, indicating the market is in motion
Waiting for tonight's nonfarm payroll data to provide direction.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US July nonfarm payroll will be released
The industry report will be released. The previous figure is currently 57,000,
The forecast is 80,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remains unchanged
4.2%, same as the front-loading system.
There is significant disagreement regarding forecasts from nonfarm data agencies,
Vanguard only has 10,000 followers, Nomura Securities has 130,000 views
Oblique.
Is this data crucial?
In June, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, showing signs of fatigue. Further closure
The key point is that ADP's "small nonfarm" only increased by 44,000, far from the end
Below expectations. Goldman Sachs pointed out some historical patterns,
In recent years, July nonfarm payrolls have frequently fallen short of expectations. There is still opportunity
The data may show non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations
(Around 50,000), and the unemployment rate was higher than expected (4.3%).
The above is a combination of the above.
Three scenarios impact BTC:
(1) Data fell far short of expectations (below 60,000), so prices declined
Interest rate expectations are rising, the US dollar is weakening, and risk appetite is returning
BTC has room to rebound. After the upset in June non-farm payrolls
BTC surged from $61,500 to approach $64,000
If a similar rally repeats for the US dollar, $65,000 is a resistance
The force level may be broken.
(2) If the data meets expectations (around 80,000), the market
Market volatility and digestion, unclear direction. BTC is very likely to be there
The range between $64,000 and $65,000 continues to move sideways.
(3) The data far exceeded expectations (over 130,000), and the US dollar declined
Strong and rising yields, with rate hike expectations making a comeback,
BTC is under short-term pressure. The $64,000 support level may not be held
Stay.
Tonight's data will break the deadlock. But note: Nonfarm payrolls
After the short-term data shock, the real medium-term direction will be determined
The July CPI and the Federal Reserve's September decision remain the same.#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $BTC $SNDK
短期来看，弱就业数据能暂时压住加息预期，但难以彻底压过通胀风险和联储内部日益升温的鹰派信号。政策路径仍高度依赖后续通胀数据（尤其是核心指标）是否持续降温。
当前背景（截至2026年8月初）
利率：联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%，自2025年底以来多次按兵不动。7月FOMC以9-3投票结果维持不变，但出现三名地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari、Logan）明确支持加息25基点的异议票，为2016年以来同方向异议票最多的一次，显示内部鹰派压力显著上升。
通胀：已连续5年多高于2%目标。6月PCE同比约3.7%、核心PCE约3.3%；此前因中东冲突能源价格上涨推高了整体通胀，6月有所回落（CPI环比转负），但核心仍粘性较强，部分官员指出AI相关资本开支也在推升部分商品和服务价格。主席Warsh反复强调“只有一个2%目标，不存在软目标”，且“63个月高于目标不能靠单月温和数据解决”。
就业：劳动力市场整体稳定但已现放缓迹象。6月非农仅增5.7万（远低于预期，前两月合计下修约7.4万），失业率降至4.2%（部分因劳动力参与率下降）。7月ADP私人部门仅增4.4万（低于预期），官方7月非农报告于8月7日公布，市场预期约7-8万左右、失业率维持4.2%附近。工资增长温和（约3.5%同比），低招聘、低裁员特征明显，并非通胀的主要驱动力。
多位官员（包括Cook、Waller、Logan等）近期表态认为通胀风险目前大于就业风险，劳动市场已大致平衡，为优先处理价格稳定提供了空间。Cook在8月5日讲话中明确称，若看不到持续通缩迹象，已准备好支持加息。
弱就业能否压过通胀？
能起的作用：软就业数据会降低“经济过热”担忧，压制近期加息概率，给联储更多观望时间。6月疲软非农已显著压低了当时的加息押注。若7月及后续数据继续显示招聘乏力、失业率缓升，而通胀不再反弹，市场可能转向“更长时间维持不变”甚至讨论宽松空间。当前利率水平本身已具一定限制性，就业进一步走弱会增加“过度紧缩”风险。
难以压过的原因：
通胀粘性与预期风险：核心通胀仍明显高于目标，能源/供应冲击和AI投资等因素可能延续。长期通胀预期虽相对锚定，但短期有所抬升，官员担心“高于目标时间越长，越易固化到工资和定价行为中”。
联储优先级转变：新主席Warsh强调价格稳定优先，点阵图和官员表态已转向更鹰。多数观点认为就业并非当前主要通胀来源，因此弱就业本身不足以扭转“通胀风险更大”的判断。
数据依赖与内部分歧：政策高度数据依赖。若后续CPI/PCE（尤其核心）再度走高，即便就业偏弱，加息（9月或之后）仍可能成为选项；反之若通胀持续降温，就业疲软会强化按兵不动甚至转向宽松的理由。市场对9月加息的定价此前已显著上升（部分时段超50%-60%），但会随数据波动。
总结：弱就业是“刹车”而非“转向信号”。它能延缓或减少加息压力，但在通胀仍顽固高于目标、联储鹰派声音升温的环境下，无法单独压过通胀考量。关注今日（8月7日）7月非农、后续通胀数据以及Jackson Hole等场合的官员表态。最终路径仍是“数据驱动”，而非单一指标主导。After BitMEX, BitMart also entered its countdown
One has been an exchange for 11 years, the other has been running for nearly 9 years, and both have recently announced their exits.
BitMEX will shut down its exchange on September 23; BitMart has also begun to phase out operations, stopping spot and contract trading services on August 26, and plans to officially shut down platform operations on January 31 next year.
What's even more interesting is how influential was BitMEX back then? Perpetual contracts, a product now found on almost all major exchanges, were among the earliest pioneers on BitMEX. However, Reuters revealed that before its exit, its market share was already below 0.01%.
It is clear that exchange business in the crypto world is becoming increasingly concentrated.
Having history, brand, and product innovation doesn't mean you can stay at the table. Liquidity, users, compliance, products, and costs will ultimately decide who can survive.
Projects change, exchanges change too.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Talking about some solid stuff, those who know, know. $SPCX is up 6% today against the trend, and behind it is a bigger narrative: SpaceX is building its own gas power plant and a massive battery array for the semiconductor giant Terafab in Texas, generating and storing its own electricity. This is no longer just about making rockets; Musk is moving the entire "energy—chip—AI" chain into his own backyard. With vertical integration to this extent, the valuation anchor changes. Don't just focus on the daily ups and downs; watch how this chain develops.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound ETH的护城河还在吗？⚔️
⚡ Solana、Avalanche、Sui等新一代公链正以极高性价比和用户粘性疯狂侵蚀以太坊的领地。SOL/$ETH 汇率在过去一年暴涨超300%，资金正在用真金白银进行“链置换”。
🧐 以太坊的叙事陷入了尴尬的夹层：说它是“世界计算机”，但L2繁荣后主网变得冷清；说它是“价值存储”，但通胀重启让这一说法站不住脚；说它是“Web3底层”，但市场更看好高性能模块化公链。
📉 DEX成交量占比：以太坊主网DEX日交易量占全市场比重已从一年前的65%降至如今的42%。Uniswap V3上最大的交易对已不再是$ETH /稳定币，而是稳定币之间的做市，可见投机活跃度大幅下降。
📌 但是！以太坊的开发者生态和节点去中心化程度仍是所有公链中最强的。这是它最后也是最坚固的护城河。只要有开发者在，生态就有复苏的种子。
✅$ETH 利好：开发者数量仍居榜首，EIP-4844（Proto-Danksharding）的后续升级仍在推进，长期技术路线清晰。
❌ 利空：短期资金被竞品大幅分流，“以太坊杀手”虽迟但到，叙事端面临严峻挑战。
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound 西联把稳定币、Solana 和 Visa 支付场景接起来，这事比很多公链叙事更接地气。
不是又多发了一个稳定币这么简单。西联真正想做的是把链上美元塞进它原本的汇款网络：用户收款、线下兑现、商户消费、跨境结算，都尽量别再被银行工作日和代理行链条卡住。
稳定币最缺的从来不是链上转账速度，而是“最后一公里”。
你可以 3 秒到账，但对方拿不到本地现金、刷不了卡、过不了合规，那就只是钱包里一个数字。西联厉害的地方在于它本来就有全球网点和风控网络，现在把稳定币当成后台结算层。
真正的出圈不是喊 Web3，而是让用户根本不需要知道自己用了链。
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进
期待好用的支付实际落地应用到每一个生活场景
跨过VISA支付太昂贵今晚20:30非农，大饼还卡在6.43万美元附近。 这种时候我最不想做的一件事，就是提前猜数据，然后拿着答案去套盘面。 先看现在市场到底在干什么。 截至15:49，BTCUSDT约 64,342.6美元，过去24小时下跌约 0.73%，最高 64,971美元，最低 64,111美元。 也就是说，非农出来之前，大饼并没有提前走出特别明确的单边行情。 今晚真正的爆点在20:30。 美国劳工统计局已经确认，7月就业报告将在8月7日8:30 ET公布，也就是北京时间今晚20:30。上一次6月非农新增就业只有 5.7万人，失业率为 4.2%。 但我觉得，现在比猜非农数字更有意思的，是看市场有没有提前下注。 从今天凌晨4点到15点，BTC未平仓量大约从 105,710枚 降到 105,565枚，变化只有约 -0.14%。 同时，最近12个小时的主动买入量大约 15,031枚BTC，主动卖出约 15,925枚BTC，卖方只略占优势；最新资金费率约 +0.004611。 所以至少到现在，我没看到特别明显的“全市场提前押一边”。 多空更像是在等今晚的数据给一个借口。 那非农出来以后怎么看？ 我自己不会盯Crypto trading volume shrank by 63%, HLP returns dropped to zero, and stock demand may struggle to keep up with the decline of Perp DEXs
According to TradingBeats monitoring, Perp DEXs have exited their previous high turnover phase. The total market turnover over the past 7 days has dropped about 13.7% month-on-month, with the current 30-day turnover at about $498.2 billion, a 63.4% decrease from the peak of about $1.36 trillion in October last year.
The most obvious ebb trend is crypto perpetual growth. Comparing the storage peak from June 22 to 25 with the two four-day windows from August 3 to 6, Hyperliquid's average daily crypto contract turnover dropped from $5.988 billion to $3.058 billion, nearly halved; Lighter's trading volume dropped from $1.666 billion to $1.111 billion, a decrease of 33.3%;
Additionally, GRVT's weekly average trading volume on Sunday was about 59.1% lower than the previous day's, and dYdX's was about 43.2% lower; During the same period, weekly trading volume on Ethereum and Perp on Solana fell by 26.8% and 22.5% month-on-week, respectively.
The contraction in trading demand has already been transmitted to market-making gains. Hyperliquid's HLP size dropped 21.8% from June to about $215 million, and Lighter LLP dropped 19.9% to $80.62 million; Among them, HLP's 30-day return was only about 0.018%, nearly zero, and as capital scale contracted, strategy treasury returns also nearly stagnated.
It is reported that the well-known crypto market maker Wintermute also obtained a U.S. brokerage license today, preparing to enter the Wall Street market-making business.
But the problem is not that funds are completely fleeing the platform. During the same period, Hyperliquid Bridge's stock increased from $5.773 billion to $5.94 billion, a 2.9% increase; Lighter Bridge also increased by about 2.0%. The funds remain, but currently, Perp DEXs are facing insufficient trading demand rather than simple liquidity flight.
A small portion of the growing demand comes from traditional assets. During the same period, Trade.xyz's average daily turnover rose from $3.888 billion to $5.134 billion, a growth of 32.1%, offsetting about a 42.5% decline in Hyperliquid's crypto contract trading volume. Among both crypto and traditional asset contracts, the share of Trade.xyz trading volume also rose from 39.4% to 62.7%, an increase of 23.3 percentage points.
Traditional assets like stocks are rewriting Hyperliquid's internal trading structure, but not enough to reverse the decline of the entire Perp DEX industry. After the cooling of old crypto trading demand, stocks have become one of the few sectors still capable of handling incremental transactions.$SNDK SanDisk's performance is flawless: but it continues to plunge! How should we view and handle this now?
Just finished reviewing SanDisk's Q4 earnings, the numbers are unbelievably good: revenue hit 8.97 billion, far exceeding the expected 8.39 billion; earnings per share at $39.25 also beat the expected $34.4.
Gross margin soared directly to 84.6%, up more than 6 points from an already impressive 78.4%. Data center revenue reached 2.97 billion, surpassing expectations with 437% growth, and the QLC Stargate product is indeed starting to contribute revenue.
Logically, with such explosive data, the stock should have surged violently after hours.
What happened? It plunged after hours!
Not because of poor performance, but because the market wants the 2027 script, not the 2026 accolades. The Q1 revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, midpoint 10.55 billion, while the market expected 10.8 billion. That 250 million shortfall is just a breath away.
In short, the market logic now is: good performance is expected, good guidance is the real positive. Guidance not hitting the ceiling means failure.
So what now?
Long strategy: Wait for sentiment to settle. If pre-market can stabilize around 1340-1350, which is the support level of this rebound, consider light buying. Set stop loss below 1300, take profit at 1450-1480. The long-term logic of this stock is intact; AI storage shortages will last at least until mid-2027, and institutional average target price remains above 2400.
Short strategy: If the opening rebound can't break through 1430-1450, the high point of this rebound, consider shorting. Set stop loss at 1480, take profit at 1340. If it breaks 1300, increase position targeting 1244.
The performance is undeniably strong, but the best buying points are always after panic selling ends, not chasing in the numbness of "meeting expectations."
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound The on-chain battle between whales and smart money: Is someone quietly bottom-fishing? 🤫
🔍 Despite the overall pessimistic data, Glassnode's "accumulation address" metric shows that "mid-sized whales" holding 1,000-10,000 $ETH net increased by about 150,000 $ETH in the past week. This group of middlemen, neither super whales nor retail investors, is accumulating shares below 1900 against the trend.
📊 The put/call ratio on Deribit has dropped to 0.68, and below 1 means that call trading volume exceeds put options. Some aggressive funds are positioning call options at 1900-2000, betting on an oversold rebound.
🏦 Alternative data: Although ETH's Coinbase premium is still negative recently, the negative margin narrowed from -0.5% to -0.15%, indicating that selling pressure from US institutions is marginally weakening. If this premium turns positive, it will be the first signal of ETH stabilizing.
📉 However, caution is needed: Taker's bid-ask spread (CVD) remains in deep negative territory on $ETH, indicating that active selling continues to dominate the market. Most buy orders are passive orders lacking aggressiveness.
📌 Conclusion: Smart money has started tentatively bottom-fishing, but the strength is not enough to counter whale distributions. Longs and bears are still fiercely fighting for the 1900 level.
✅ Bullish: Medium-sized whales accumulate shares + bullish sentiment on options is heating up, and conditions for a local rebound are in place.
❌ Bearish: Active selling dominates, bottom-fishing funds are defensive, lacking a main upward engine. #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, AI investment pressure intensifies. #Uniswap进军发射台, can UNI open up a new narrative? #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? #特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂
Musk's Tesla + SpaceX joint venture to launch the Terafab Super Wafer Fab, with an initial investment of $16.8 billion, and the total long-term investment expected to rise significantly, aiming for an annual output of 1 terawatt of computing power to cover chips for autonomous driving, humanoid robots, and space data centers.
✅ Bullish logic
Achieving vertical chip self-sufficiency, freeing itself from the constraints of external chip manufacturers.
There is a huge global gap in AI computing power. If the project successfully launches, it will reshape the AI hardware landscape and strengthen the growth potential of Musk-affiliated assets.
⚠️ Bearish logic
The chip factory construction cycle is long, with years from groundbreaking to mass production. The long-term investment scale is enormous, and the pressure of burning money is extremely high.
Grand plans do not necessarily mean realization; technology, capital, and production capacity all involve significant uncertainties, and at this stage, the focus is more on story expectations.
📌 My personal opinion
This is a high-risk gamble on computing power, with only a theme in the short term and no real output.
The vision is ambitious enough, but massive capital expenditures will continue to consume cash flow. Don't be directly swayed by grand narratives; focus on tracking subsequent construction progress and mass production timelines. During the dreamy phase, it's not advisable to give overly high valuations.
Mapping the crypto market:
The news will temporarily stimulate sentiment in AI computing power-related coins. However, the continued large capital expenditures by giants will increase pressure on long-term U.S. Treasuries, which will suppress overall valuations of risk assets in the medium to long term.The July ADP miss sharpens the policy tension rather than settling it. Private payrolls rose 44,000, below the 75,000 forecast and the weakest gain in six months, but Governor Cook’s readiness to act if inflation fails to cool keeps the hawkish path open.
With MarketWatch placing the odds of a 25 bp September hike near 56.9%, crypto faces an asymmetric setup: soft payrolls may support risk appetite, yet persistent inflation could quickly reverse that relief. Friday’s payrolls and next week’s CPI should matter more than the first reaction to ADP. Not advice, just analysis.
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs #OKXOrbitEarnings soared 372%, while stock prices fell 19%—Wall Street finally said "no" to AI storage
Looking at SanDisk's financial report—revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, gross margin of 84.6%, EPS beating expectations, and a $14 billion buyback plan—
Looking at Western Digital's financial report—revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year-on-year, with net profit soaring 12 times year-on-year.
Then waking up—Western Digital fell 19%, SanDisk dropped 12%, and SK Hynix fell 8%.
He was completely stunned.
"Wasn't the performance exploding? Why should it drop? ”
Why? Because Wall Street now doesn't look at "how much money was made in the past," but only "how much more can be earned in the future."
SanDisk's median guidance is $10.55 billion, with the market expectation of $11.148 billion.
The difference is less than 6%.
The stock price has plunged 12%.
Western Digital is even more unfortunate—next quarter's revenue guidance is $4.1 billion, while analysts expect only $4.02 billion.
As a result, it dropped 11% in after-hours trading, and then another 13% the next day.
The better the performance, the worse the decline.
This scene has played out repeatedly this year—SK Hynix dropped 30% intraday after its Q2 earnings report, while Samsung's profits surged 1810% but its stock price fell 6%.
This isn't just a problem for one or two companies—it's that the market's pricing logic for the entire AI storage supercycle is loosening.
Goldman Sachs summed up the essence in one sentence:
"The core problem currently facing the storage industry is not fundamentals deteriorating, but that market expectations have exceeded reality."
Translated into plain language—
It's not because storage is failing, but because market expectations for storage have reached a level where "you have to be perfect, must exceed expectations every time, and even guidance must be significantly raised."
SanDisk's gains have exceeded 460% this year, and Western Digital has risen 200%.
Good news has long been priced in.
When the results materialized, no new catalyst beyond expectations appeared—profit-taking was concentrated to take profits.
What makes people even more anxious is another signal.
NVIDIA is evaluating the reduction of Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration.
Originally planned to use the HBM4e 12hi, now considering various low-end options like HBM4e 8hi and HBM4 12hi.
Even Nvidia can't get enough high-end HBM anymore.
What does this mean?
HBM is not a money printer; it is a bottleneck.
Storage supply and demand are tight, with both positive factors supporting prices and constraints restricting AI chip shipments.
The story of "demand outstripping supply" began to show another face.
But the market is deeply divided.
Citibank said: Low inventory, supply-demand adequacy ratio dropped from 70% to 50%, and capacity cannot meet orders.
China Asset Management said: Within 3 to 5 years, storage supply will still struggle to meet all demands.
Morgan Stanley said: Memory contract prices peaked in Q4.
Renqiao said: The industry has peaked, and the period of extreme profits will inevitably be short-lived.
Both bulls and bears do not deny strong performance.
The disagreement is: how much longer can this strength last?
So my judgment is simple—
The plunge in storage stocks isn't because the fundamentals collapsed, but because the "expectation gap" is causing trouble.
Over the past year, the market has priced AI storage at "better every quarter."
Now SanDisk says "gross margin is flat" — interpreted as a peak.
Western Digital said the "median guidance for next quarter is 4.1 billion"—slightly higher than expected, yet still falls.
When the market is accustomed to "exceeding expectations," any "meeting expectations" is simply falling short of expectations.
Suggestions for operation? Three sentences:
First, don't comfort yourself with "good performance." This earnings season, the market looks at guidance, gross margin trends, and "second-order derivatives"—fast growth isn't important, what matters is whether it can rise faster.
Second, the volatility in the storage sector is far from over. SanDisk plunged 47% in July alone, wiping out 150 billion in market value. SK Hynix hit the 30% limit down on 11 shares of Nextrade before the market opened. When liquidity is exhausted, fundamentals don't work.
Third, if you hold related assets—be prepared for volatility. It doesn't matter whether the bulls or bears are right or wrong; what matters is that uncertainty itself is a reason to reduce positions.
Wall Street is voting with its feet to tell you—
The best days for AI storage may have already passed.
Or rather, the market thinks it's over.
$SNDK $WDC $SKHY #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market stable? Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin is still moving sideways near its bottom, and the current monthly chart resembles November 2022. Could it still drop below $57,750? The likelihood is not very high. 🌿 Even though the lower Bollinger Band on the monthly chart sits at $51,473, price usually doesn't return to touch it—so that level isn't a reliable reference in practice. Solana is similar: its monthly lower Bollinger Band is around $42, but it’s unlikely to fall that far. The $60 area has alrBrothers, KMNO surged today with a sudden surge in the market, with the biggest driving force being the launch of the Upbit Korean won trading pair!
Within 15 minutes of the news, the stock surged 12%, reaching a high of 0.023, then pulled back to consolidation around 0.01967.
Those familiar with the market know that Upbit's Korean funds have always had a strong pulse effect on Solana coins, with short-term buying coming in quickly and withdrawing quickly.
Let's briefly review the project fundamentals
KMNO is the token of Kamino Finance, Solana's leading lending protocol, with protocol deposits exceeding $4 billion, ranking among the top tier in the Solana DeFi lending sector.
Recently, the Institutional Yield Treasury was launched, with the first Commodity Yield officially launched, aiming for an annualized return of 7-8%. Relying on CIMA's regulatory fund to lay out off-chain commodity loans, this is an important attempt to transform the project into RWA institutional yield.
At the token level, the total supply is 10 billion tokens, with about 5.238 billion currently in circulation and a circulation rate of 52.38%. Compared to many new projects, the circulation structure is relatively healthy. But don't overlook the fact that the absolute circulating volume of 5 billion tokens is substantial and requires continuous incremental capital to absorb it. Additionally, protocol fee switching has not yet been activated, so business growth will not directly bring dividends or buyback gains to tokens for now.
Short-term resistance: 0.021-0.023 is the high point for Upbit's news impact. This is the first major hurdle; only a breakout with increased volume can have further upward momentum. Repeated resistance leads to a pullback
Medium-term resistance: 0.026-0.027, with the previous rebound trapping the resistance zone
Short-term support: 0.019-0.0195, currently in a fluctuating range, with bulls defending as the first line of defense
Strong support: 0.0176-0.018, the key bottom repeatedly confirmed in July
Just my personal opinion
This round of rally is essentially an exchange news pulse brought by Upbit's launch; new RWA products are just sentiment buffs, not the core driving force of the market.
The Korean session often experiences a kimchi premium. After a short-term rapid surge, once Korean buyers exit, it's easy to give back the gains.
For Solana coins catalyzed by this kind of news, remember the bottom line: it's suitable for short-term gambling, fast in and out, and don't blindly take long-term single bets to cash out.
Focus on whether the 0.021-0.023 range can hold steady with increased volume; if you can't get through, don't chase. If the defensive position breaks through, adjust your strategy promptly.
Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $KMNO
#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, pressure to invest in AI is intensifying
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Western Digital and SanDisk both released financial reports showing overall better-than-expected results, but their guidance and profit margins for next quarter were cautious, causing both stock prices to plunge. SanDisk's median revenue guidance for the next fiscal quarter fell short of market consensus. Although Western Digital offered growth expectations, it failed to meet the previously elevated optimistic expectations. The storage sector immediately came under collective pressure, with the pressure quickly spreading to Asian markets: South Korea's KOSPI plunged heavily due to semiconductor weighting, SK Hynix briefly crashed pre-market trading, and Samsung Electronics weakened in tandem. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is reportedly evaluating adjustments to some Rubin Ultra memory configurations to address ongoing tight high-end HBM supply. Market discussions shift from "supply shortage is positive" to a more realistic question: Is the storage shortage the driving force behind price increases, or could it limit AI chip shipments and thus constrain sector valuations? Coupled with previous leveraged funds repeatedly experiencing single-day sharp drops on stocks like SK Hynix, the AI storage market is shifting from narrative-driven to a phase of testing whether high expectations can be delivered. The performance itself is not bad. Western Digital's fourth-quarter revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $3.747 billion, with adjusted EPS of $3.56; SanDisk's revenue surged 372% year-over-year to about $8.97 billion, with adjusted EPS reaching $39.25. Cloud and data center demand clearly drove near-line hard drives and enterprise-grade SSDs. What truly triggered the sell-off was the expectation gap—earlier valuations fully reflected the AI supercycle, and any guidance below the optimistic scenario would be interpreted as a negative signal. HBM supply tightness is a real constraint. Expanding high-end bandwidth memory capacity takes time; long-term agreements lock in some demand but also limit short-term surges. The allocation adjustments for clients like Nvidia are essentially trade-offs under hard supply constraints. This doesn't mean the bull market ends immediately, but it does mean volatility will increase, and relying solely on the logic of "shortages = price increases" is no longer sufficient. For OKX Planet traders, the storage sector has moved from a one-sided narrative to a validation phase. Fundamentals still provide support, but managing positions and expectations has become more important. The repeated stepping of leveraged funds reminds everyone: once high-expectations assets fail to meet guidance, the pace of adjustment will far outpace the uptrend. Going forward, focus on follow-up guidance from Samsung, SK Hynix, and others, as well as the actual delivery pace of HBM, rather than short-term sentiment fluctuations.#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 2026年夏天，全球存储芯片板块上演了一场典型的“业绩向左、股价向右”行情。三星电子$SAMSUNG 、SK海力士$SKHYNIX 、美光科技$MU 交出创纪录的财报，闪迪（SanDisk）和西部数据也报出远超预期的营收与利润，但股价却集体承压甚至大跌。A股相关概念股同步剧烈波动，市场开始追问：由AI驱动的内存超级周期，是否已经走到了拐点？ 亮眼财报难敌“预期差” 存储三巨头的业绩堪称“印钞机”级别。三星电子2026年第二季度营业利润达到约89.4万亿韩元（约合580多亿美元），同比暴增逾1800%，单季利润一度超越英伟达，成为全球最赚钱的公司之一。SK海力士同期营收同比增长257%，营业利润率高达76%，连续刷新纪录。美光科技更是把营收做到约414.6亿美元量级，同比增长超过300%，毛利率突破80%。 近期发布的闪迪与西部数据财报同样强劲：闪迪季度营收同比大增数百个百分点，西部数据营收与每股收益均超预期。然而，市场反应冷淡。财报发布后，闪迪、西部数据盘后重挫，SK海力士、铠侠等亚太存储股单日跌幅一度超过10%。自6月末高点以来，全球主要存The bears have started to withdraw: two hours ago, they were still debating the direction of the range, but now several KOLs have shifted their focus to "where to buy more."
WWG will close out $BTC short positions held for nearly three days to guarantee the break-even while continuing to hold long positions; His condition is to hold at 63.9K, first watch 65.9K, then assess below if it falls. Unity Academy also believes the short selling phase is nearing its end, and if it falls deeply to 61K–59K, long positions must be sought. Dongbi Cat began regular investment as a long-term reserve for the next bull market.
OKX's public quote is about 64.3K. Overall judgment: This is a reversal in position direction, not a price breakout yet; Only by holding 63.9K will the upward squeeze path be maintained; if it falls below it, the short-term bullish logic will fail. Will you build a base position first, or wait for the price to be confirmed?
$MON. $ACE Stop-loss has been made; $HFT There are simultaneous risks of cancellation and delisting, along with claims of high returns, with conflicting information. $BTW There is no public catalyst, so no opportunities are listed in this round.
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment adviceStaking and Unlocking: Hidden selling pressure around 1900! 🔓
💰 $ETH Ethereum staking rate is currently about 28%, with a total staked amount exceeding 34 million ETH. However, the core recent risk is that after the Shanghai upgrade, staking unlocking has become extremely smooth, while the current token price is sluggish, and many stakers face pressure to cut losses and exit.
📉 According to beaconcha.in data, although validator exit queues did not surge over the past week, the number of addresses requesting withdrawals increased by 35% quarter-on-quarter. If ETH falls below 1800, it could trigger a chain reaction—a large amount of staked ETH is redeemed and sold on exchanges, creating a vicious cycle.
👀 Whale staking address movements: Three of the top 10 staking pools reduced their staking positions in the past 10 days, with cumulative withdrawals exceeding 80,000 ETH. These sensitive funds seem to anticipate further price declines.
📊 But it's not all negative! Lido's stETH discount rate has narrowed from -1.2% last week to -0.4%, indicating that panic over liquid staking derivatives in the secondary market has eased. If the discount turns positive, it would mean the market is starting to regain confidence in ETH.
📌 Conclusion: The pressure of staking redemption is like the sword of Damocles hanging above 1900. If it breaks below key support, it could trigger a stampede escape.
✅ Positive news: st$ETH discount narrowed, easing panic in the staking market.
❌ Negative news: Exit applications are increasing; if prices accelerate downward, it could trigger large-scale forced liquidations. $ETH #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment beat inflation? #黄金4200美元拉锯, why hasn't BTC followed the rise? #Uniswap进军发射台, can UNI open up a new narrative? #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
SanDisk and Western Digital performed almost identically: strong performance but stock prices fell.
SanDisk's fourth-quarter revenue reached $8.97 billion, up 51% quarter-on-quarter, with about one-third of that driven by shipment growth and two-thirds from price increases. The data center business grew 437% for the year, and the enterprise-level storage demand driven by AI is clearly reflected in the financial report.
Western Digital's fourth-quarter revenue was $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.56, also above Wall Street expectations. However, after the earnings were released, both companies' stock prices dropped significantly, dragging 😅 down storage concept stocks like Micron and SK Hynix
Personally, I think the AI storage industry cycle won't end so soon. After all, the sharp growth over the past year may have triggered an emotional fear of the price hike among investors, so revenue growth alone isn't enough—capital hopes to see growth accelerate further; Performance beating analysts' expectations is not enough, and guidance should be clearly above the most optimistic market estimates; Strong demand is not enough; price, shipments, and gross margins could soar to the outer space 😂
SanDisk's next quarter revenue guidance is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, still in a high-growth range, but not meeting the market's previously raised expectations. Western Digital faces similar issues: its financial report itself passed, but some investors expect it to deliver stronger growth and profit margins than Seagate.
Here's another place that's easy to mix up and discuss:
HBM, DRAM, NAND, enterprise-grade SSDs, and HDDs are all included in the broad concept of "AI storage," but their corresponding needs and business cycles are not the same.
HBM directly works with GPUs for high-speed computing, which remains the core bottleneck for AI hardware; DRAM is responsible for runtime memory; NAND and enterprise-grade SSDs handle high-performance data storage; HDDs benefit from long-term growth in cloud data volume.
AI can drive both markets simultaneously, but the speed of benefit, price elasticity, and competitive landscape will still show significant differences. Looking solely at the stock price performance of SanDisk or Western Digital in one day, it's hard to directly infer that the entire storage cycle has ended.
After doing some research, we can focus on three sets of data next:
First, whether the capital expenditures of cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have slowed down;
Second, can the prices of NAND, DRAM, and enterprise-grade hard drives continue to strengthen;
Third, can storage manufacturers' inventory, gross margins, and orders improve in tandem?
As long as cloud providers continue to expand AI infrastructure, storage prices don't loosen rapidly, and enterprise-level demand keeps growing, this industry theme will persist. However, the difficulty of trading storage stocks has indeed increased.
In the previous stage, capital was willing to offer a premium for the entire AI storage sector; Next, order fulfillment, product structure, and profit margins will gradually widen the gap between companies. The market where buying a concept can surge broadly is gradually moving toward more detailed performance screening. This also has reference value for the crypto market.
US AI concepts, DePIN, computing power, and crypto AI assets in the US stock market often share the same risk appetite. When US stocks begin to revise valuations for "good performance but not continuing to exceed expectations," the AI narrative in the crypto market will face stricter scrutiny. AI demand remains strong, and storage cycles continue. However, the market has already priced in its most optimistic vision for the coming years, and the upcoming gains will require quarter after quarter of profits to absorb it.
$SNDK $WDC #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? AI memory market: The decline is not the end, but the market is beginning to reprice
Recently, the storage sector has seen a noticeable correction, prompting many to wonder: Has the AI wave cooled down?
But on closer inspection, this adjustment feels more like a valuation digestion after expectations were too high, rather than a sudden disappearance of demand.
According to financial reports from storage companies like Western Digital and SanDisk, the performance itself is not bad, with some data even exceeding market expectations, yet stock prices still plunged. The core reason is that the market had already priced AI memory demand too highly. Investors are looking for "stronger growth," not just pure growth.
Over the past year, the biggest change in the AI industry chain has been memory gradually shifting from a cyclical industry to a part of AI infrastructure.
Especially HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which has become a key component in the AI GPU ecosystem. With increasing demands for large model training and inference, data centers continue to demand high-speed memory, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all ramping up related layouts.
But the market is now focused on a very real issue:
Demand for AI servers is truly strong, but can this strong demand continue to support current valuations?
After all, the logic behind past increases was:
AI boom → increased GPU demand→ HBM supply outstripped supply→ boosted memory manufacturers' profits.
The next phase of market verification is:
Increased AI investment → companies truly generate revenue → computing power demand continues to expand.
If the pace of commercialization can't keep up with capital expenditure, the AI industry chain will inevitably experience volatility.
So this time, the storage stock adjustment feels more like a selection process.
In the short term, funds are shifting from "hyping AI stories" to "seeing real profits realized."
In the long run, the volume of data in the AI era will only grow, and the importance of memory and storage will not diminish. What really needs to be focused is not who shouts AI the loudest, but who can consistently secure orders, maintain technological leadership, and turn demand into profit.
What the market fears most is not a drop, but a wild surge without any adjustment.
This current round of volatility is actually revaluating the entire AI chain.
Is the AI bull market still ongoing?
My view is: the story isn't over, but the market has moved from "believing in the future" to "validating the future." @OKX planet After its launch, pools.trade quickly became the most active launch entry on the Robinhood Chain. According to Dune data, on the first day of launch, Uniswap V4 on Robinhood recorded about $73.6 million in trading volume, surpassing Ethereum mainnet's $47.2 million. On August 6, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams publicly disclosed that pools.trade's cumulative trading volume had exceeded $150 million, with some users completing transactions through early smart contract versions before the official UI launch. pools.trade is still in beta, and Hayden Adams stated that the team will continue to roll out upgrades and optimizations.
Uniswap launched its own launch platform at this time, driven by a clear strategic logic. Since Robinhood Chain's launch, meme token trading has been highly active. According to DefiLlama data, the chain's current total locked value is about $433 million, with DEXs trading volume around $550 million in 24 hours. Uniswap handles over 90% of on-chain trading and liquidity provision, contributing about $2.15 million in transaction fees in the past 24 hours, far exceeding Pons V1's roughly $355,000. Although the trading layer is firmly occupied by Uniswap, the token launch phase was previously controlled by third-party platforms like Flap and Pons, which has long played the role of "backend infrastructure" and has not directly reached the entry traffic of creators and early traders.
#Uniswap进军发射台, can UNI open up a new narrative? BTC is trading sideways near $64,500, and the market is waiting for tonight's nonfarm payroll data to set the way.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US July nonfarm payroll report will be released. The previous figure is currently 57,000, while the forecast is 80,000. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, the same as the previous estimate.
Regarding nonfarm data institutions' forecasts, there is a wide divergence: Vanguard only sees 10,000 people, while Nomura Securities expects 130,000.
Is this data crucial?
In June, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, showing signs of fatigue. More importantly, ADP's "small nonfarm" numbers increased by only 44,000, far below expectations. Goldman Sachs pointed out a historical pattern: in recent years, nonfarm payrolls in July have frequently fallen short of expectations. Other institutions have pointed out that the data may show a combination of nonfarm payrolls below expectations (around 50,000) and unemployment above expectations (over 4.3%).
Three scenarios impact BTC:
(1) Data far below expectations (below 60,000), rising rate cut expectations, weakening the dollar, and rebounding risk appetite, giving BTC room to rebound. After the June nonfarm upset, BTC surged from $61,500 to approach $64,000. If a similar rally repeats, the $65,000 resistance level may be broken.
(2) If the data meets expectations (around 80,000), the market will fluctuate and digest the situation, with unclear direction. BTC is very likely to continue trading sideways in the $64,000 to $65,000 range.
(3) Data far exceeds expectations (over 130,000), the US dollar strengthens, yields rise, rate hike expectations are making a comeback, and BTC is under short-term pressure. The $64,000 support may not hold.
Tonight's data will break the deadlock. However, it should be noted that after the short-term impact of nonfarm payroll data, the real medium-term direction will still be determined by the July CPI and the Fed's September decision. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment beat inflation? When it comes to investing, it's often hard to explain so-called 'luck,' but one thing is very real.
When those around you who have weathered several bull and bear cycles and have been navigating the capital market for years start forming a unified risk assessment, stories that were repeatedly discussed six months or a year ago suddenly spark a nationwide wave of sentiment. When you notice moms, office workers, and even people who have never been involved in investing start showing off their returns and shouting slogans, it often means that this feast is nearing its end.
The greatest danger in the capital market has never been ignorance, but that everyone firmly believes they can make money.
Behind Nvidia's rise lies the fate of the United States, the AI revolution, the midterm elections, capital returns, and market god-making all shaping the atmosphere of the times.
But the storage industry doesn't have that kind of fate.
Essentially, it remains a highly cyclical industry that cannot bear such a huge valuation premium. Looking back now, what many people buy is not the asset itself, but the "fate premium" imposed by sentiment.
After the bubble bursts, many people's half-life savings, even the savings of the rest of their lives, vanish into thin air.
Is there still a chance to turn things around?
Of course there are, but in the end, they're just rare and rare.
More people may return to ordinary life, quietly repaying the price they paid for their past fanaticism through the day-to-day work.
The harshest part of the financial market is not losing money, but the shattering of the illusion of wealth that makes people re-understand themselves and the times.
Why are some people richer and more powerful than me willing to join me in bragging about NB? When luck is on your side, there's nothing you can do.下午非农来了喔
失业率前值4.2预期4.2
非农就业人口前值5.7预期8
说实话
这个数据主要看的是经济冷热
好了加息概率增加
坏了加息概率降低
前几天的小就业数据就业已经疲软了
所以7月的就业数据可能没有那么强
因为前几天的数据大概就能体现7月发展了
失业率可能符合预期或者大于4.2
就业人口可能不及预期8
但是数据又不能显示经济过冷
如果经济过冷就代表经济下行了
代表经济下行就算降低了加息的概率但是对金融市场也不会太友好
所以今天的数据应该就在预期值附近
整体应该是降低加息概率的
目前美股在日线支撑附近
美元指数在100下方附近
最近人民币对美元的汇率在走强
这些都显示美联储加息概率不大
别看美联储天天嘴上喊的凶
但是身体是很诚实的$ETH ETF's nightmare: capital is fleeing wildly! 🏦
🇺🇸 Since its listing, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen only a small net inflow on the first day, but have shown net outflows for several consecutive days since. Grayscale's ETHE has even surged like a flood, with daily outflows stabilizing at $100 to $200 million. Compared to the BTC ETF fundraising boom, ETH ETFs are like abandoned babies.
📊 According to Farside data, Ethereum ETFs have accumulated net outflows exceeding $500 million, with no signs of slowing down. Institutional investors are using ETFs as an exit to massively reduce their Ethereum holdings. This contrasts sharply with the $BTC ETF's net inflow of $750 million.
🤯 Deeper reason: Institutions feel confused about ETH's positioning. BTC is clearly described as "digital gold," while ETH faces fierce competition from high-performance public chains like Solana, and L2 scaling solutions have sharply reduced mainnet revenue. Traditional funds fail to see ETH's unique value capture logic and naturally vote with their feet.
📉 On-chain verification: Coinbase's premium index is also negative for ETH, with US institutions selling ETH even more aggressively than BTC. Although there are sporadic dip-buying in the Asian market, the volume is completely insufficient to offset US selling pressure.
📌 Conclusion: Continued outflows from $ETH ETFs are the core external factor suppressing prices. Before outflows slow, ETH is difficult to organize a valid rebound.
✅ Positive: Under extremely pessimistic expectations, if there is a catalyst beyond expectations (such as the approval of staking ETFs), there is huge room for a rebound.
❌ Bearish: Currently, there are no signs of a stabilization in liquidity, and Grayscale's selling pressure is far from over.
#Uniswap进军发射台, can UNI open up a new narrative? #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻, oil price risks heat up again. #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC see new growth? Jobs are almost gone, and they still dare to raise interest rates? $BTC Tonight, wait for an answer
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
The current U.S. economy is quite conflicted.
The company is becoming more cautious with hiring, but prices still can't be brought down. The Fed is not facing a simple question of whether to raise rates or cut rates; employment and inflation are being pulled in two directions.
In June, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%; In July, ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, significantly below market expectations. Employment is indeed cooling down, and it's not just a day or two.
But the Fed remains tough.
At the July meeting, the meeting voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, with Hamak, Kashkali, and Logan directly demanding a 25 basis point hike. Three rate hike bills appeared at a meeting, signaling clearly: as long as inflation remains high, some officials are willing to accept continued employment declines.
Therefore, tonight's 20:30 Beijing time nonfarm payroll cannot be judged solely by new job numbers.
If employment is weak but wage growth remains high, the Fed can fully interpret it as "companies hiring less but still competing for limited labor." Such data can only lower the probability of a recent rate hike and will make it difficult for the Fed to truly turn dovish.
The combination that can truly keep hawks in check is the continued decline in new employment, rising unemployment, and the cooling of wages. Only when these three sectors weaken together does it indicate that high interest rates are suppressing demand.
For #$BTC, the easiest pitfall is seeing nonfarm payrolls below expectations and immediately chasing the rally.
If it's just employment gaps and wages and inflation remain unchanged, BTC might surge first, then be pushed back by US Treasury yields and the dollar. What the market needs now is not a piece of "bad data," but data that proves inflation will follow.
My view leans toward the Fed holding steady in September, but don't overthink rapid rate cuts either. Weak employment can block the door to rate hikes, but it may not immediately open the door to rate cuts.
Whether BTC can move tonight may be more important than the nonfarm payroll data.The sudden reduction in the reinforcement ratio of the top-floor load-bearing wall is not a structural hazard, but rather that the foundation has become so hard that the rebar layer is unnecessary.
As an architectural designer who makes a living from this, I tend to treat every market announcement as a construction change order. Today's change order is for the VIP 9 unit on the top floor of the financial tower: the bill rate was tightened from -0.0075% to -0.0050%, and the bill rate was reduced from 0.0175% to 0.0150%. The numbers are small, but those who know what they see is that the load coefficient on the rooftop helipad has been recalibrated.
Many people stared at the renderings in the white paper, while an experienced craftsman like me only flipped through construction logs. The rate adjustment is the on-site concrete test block report—after 28 days, the compressive strength reaches 115% of the design value, and the supervisor will naturally notify you that the formwork can be removed. What is the negative rate? It's a subsidy from the construction party to the top-floor owner. To attract flagship tenants, developers are willing to bear part of the structural reinforcement costs. Now the subsidy has shrunk, and there's only one explanation: the tower's concrete has reached the design strength, the settlement observation curve has leveled, and there's no longer a need for extra diagonal bracing to maintain its stance. The negative rebate for VIP9 is essentially temporary support; removing it is because the main structure can stand on its own.
Some see this adjustment as a liquidity tax, but I prefer to compare it to adjusting the wind load coefficient of a curtain wall. When a tower has completed a full construction cycle, the structural engineer recalculates the actual wind pressure and converts the excess redundancy into usable area. A 0.0025 percentage point rebate difference is the few removed ballast lead blocks. As for the linked tower in the US stock market across the strait, it shares the same foundation as this platform—the wind tunnel effect from rate changes travels along the basement corridor but does not change the bearing capacity of any pile.
Next, the adjustment time: August 14, 3 to 5 p.m., two hours. In construction, this is called the window period—concrete pouring must avoid periods with large temperature fluctuations. Choosing this time shows that the operator knows the structure inside out and knows which period experiences the least thermal expansion and contraction. The announcement page only states the date, not the exact time, as if the general contractor only issued a sub-project acceptance notice, leaving the exact seconds to the on-site engineer. This composure itself signals structural stability.
VIP9 is the pinnacle of the tower; only whale-level funds can stand on that floor. Adjusting their rates is like adding a tuned mass damper to the top sightseeing floor—when strong winds hit, the tower body doesn't bear the load but swings with the momentum, dissipating energy invisible. Reducing negative rates means replacing the previously "attraction anchors" made with real money for structural rigidity to win.
That small line of change in numbers on the drawings was, in my eyes, another confirmation of gravity for the entire load-bearing system. No beam needed reinforcement, nor did a single curtain wall need to be replaced.
#影响周期·Weekly Level #OKX动态·Rate #VIP 9· Maker -0.0050%· Taker 0.0150%Let's talk about a particularly magical phenomenon on $DOGE: the $0.1 level seems to be welded into everyone's minds. Currently, DOGE is hovering around 0.07, which is just over 40% away from 0.1, but if you look at the market and community discussions, the screen is full of "If it hits 0.1, I'll break even" and "Only if it hits 0.1 is a bull market," as if this integer is not the price but a psychological wall.
Behavioral finance studies this is called the integer anchoring effect. People have a natural obsession with round whole numbers, placing orders, taking profit, and cost memories all piling them onto the whole number. DOGE amplifies this effect tenfold because its retail investor concentration is too high. There are two groups of people pressing above 0.1: one group fell from 0.12 and 0.2 last year all the way down, trapped inside, with the cost line stuck around 0.1, then breaking even and crashing; the other group missed out, waiting for the "0.1 break confirmation trend" before getting in. So every time this level breaks through, it becomes a meat grinder—the one in April this year hit 0.0948, just one step away, but then uneven and profit-taking positions flooded in and pushed back again.
What's even more remarkable is that this obsession is self-fulfilling. The more people focus on 0.1, the thicker the order wall there becomes, making it harder to break through, which in turn reinforces the consensus that "0.1 is very important." Market makers and quant traders love this kind of place—liquidity is dense, stop-loss is concentrated, and they come to buy back and cut corners.
So how do you break the deadlock? You can't just grind it down; you need a liquidity-level shock—for example, a collective recovery of large-scale risk assets, the launch of ETFs or payment narratives, with real money and incremental gains that swallow up the sell orders on the wall all at once. Before that, 0.1 is DOGE's inner demon and the best shield for bears. As a bull, I'm not in a hurry; the longer you wear down the round number threshold, the more violent it will be when it really breaks.The selling pressure on memory stocks this round is very typical: the industry logic hasn't broken, but the holding sentiment has deteriorated first.
AI's demand for HBM, DRAM, and storage still exists, and supply hasn't suddenly loosened. However, Korean and US storage chain stocks surged too much earlier, and investors have already taken "AI servers continuing to lack memory" as the default answer. Now, as long as a company's guidance isn't blown out of the sky, the market starts to sell off.
This is not simply bearish on storage, but a deleveraging of leveraged positions.
I think whether Korean stocks can reverse depends not only on the fundamentals of SK Hynix and Samsung but also on two small things: whether retail margin financing has been cleared, and whether foreign capital is willing to revalue. No matter how good the fundamentals are, if the market is full of people eager to get their money back, the rebound will be very tiring.
AI storage is a good story, but even a good story fears overcrowding. #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
It's really outrageous! Western Digital and SanDisk's earnings both outperform the market, yet the stock price crashed?
This is the current market: as long as the guidance is a bit more conservative, institutions start to dump stocks like crazy. The most outrageous thing is that NVIDIA is actually considering lowering Rubin's VRAM configuration? It's like buying a top-tier computer, only to find the manufacturer telling you there's not enough memory and need to downgrade.
The current AI storage market has long shifted from a so-called "shortage bull market" to an "expectation trap." Everyone is betting on that cash-in day, but if it doesn't, it's a huge bubble.
I started to wonder if we were being fooled by the narrative of AI memory. Once shipment volume is restricted, the valuation of the entire sector becomes a castle in the air.
Positions: Directly clear all AI-related storage positions. I now only trust cash, not financial reports!It's been a long time! From February until now, the market has given us six months to place our bets. It reminds me of March to October 2024, the same struggle and patience tests.
But times have changed. Back then it was a bull market, now it's a bear market. A bull market is building upward, but who knows if it's actually charging downward now? Isn't there an old saying: "If you stay sideways for a while, you'll fall?"
But no matter what, I remain firmly confident about the market outlook!
Over the past six months, BTC has been circling around a single line;
<10y Realized Price — A reference line closer to the market average cost after removing BTC held unchanged for over 10 years from the cost base.
As shown in the chart, the previous three rounds of morale were all strong resistance, but this round has become support. Can you handle that?
I've always wondered if this could be a kind of market language.
It is testing us in its own way, whether we can understand and have patience.
"Sellers give up when prices are below average; Buyers see opportunities when prices are below average." If supply and demand hadn't been balanced, why would they have persisted here for so long?
As the saying goes, as the saying goes, it's true!
As long and vertical as possible, chips are once again fully rotated. Hopefully, the next bull market will use this as a foundation to surprise us.On Wednesday, a 14% drop was called a "performance blowdown," and on Thursday, a 6% rise was said to have "all negative news has been exhausted"—the same SPCX, but two groups of people are playing together
On Wednesday night, you see SpaceX's first earnings report—
Revenue reached $7.8 billion, a 92% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations.
Net loss narrowed from 1 billion to 540 million.
However, AI capital spending reached $18.37 billion, a year-on-year surge of 550%, nearly 40% above analysts' expectations.
After hours, the stock price plunged sharply, dropping 14% the next day.
The market ruled: "Burning money is too aggressive, it doesn't deserve this valuation." ”
On Thursday, the first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares was unlocked.
What does that mean? Tradable shares surged from 639 million shares to 1.55 billion shares, with potential selling pressure approaching $100 billion. Media headlines flooded the media—"The Billion-Dollar Unlock Flood Approaches" and "SpaceX's Most Dangerous Day."
And then?
The stock price rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. A total of 255 million shares were traded throughout the day, marking a one-and-a-half-month high.
The same company, which fell 14% on Wednesday, rose 6% on Thursday.
What exactly happened?
First, Wednesday's 14% plunge is itself an "unlocked" trend.
With 200 million shares traded in a single day, it has already washed out those who wanted to leave. Market participants have long understood—bears are not betting on a fundamental collapse, but on insiders selling off after the lock-up is lifted.
But insiders barely sold, leaving the bears dumbfounded.
Second, short positions are too full, and a short squeeze is imminent. As of Wednesday's close, short positions accounted for 36% of the float, with a book unrealized profit exceeding $9 billion.
Thursday's opening didn't fall, are the bears panicking? Of course they're panicking. Covering back means buying, buying pushes the stock price higher.
Third, Wall Street is voting with real money.
Morgan Stanley reiterated its target price of $300, and JPMorgan Chase raised its price from 225 to 240. At least six brokerages maintained their buy ratings.
Morgan Stanley's analysts put it bluntly: "SpaceX is a rare, multi-generational company."
Even the options market is betting on bottoming out—some institutional traders sell $90 put options while buying $220 call options, betting that the stock price won't fall 20% or even double in the next ten months.
But don't get too happy too soon.
This is not the end. SpaceX adopted a nine-stage, phased unlocking mechanism. August was just the first wave; several subsequent batches of shares were gradually unlocked.
The biggest thunderstorm will be in June 2027—Musk's 6.4 billion shares will be unlocked at that time.
It is now below the IPO price of $135.
Just because the price didn't fall after the ban was lifted doesn't mean it won't fall in the future. The supply shock was only delayed, not eliminated.
To be honest—
Are those who criticized AI for burning money on Wednesday the same group as those who shouted "all negative news has been gone" on Thursday?
No.
On Wednesday, short-term funds were sold off; on Thursday, long-term beliefs followed.
Retail investors net bought $22.7 million in the first hour of Wednesday's crash—in their view, aggressive investment in AI is not negative news, but a signal of rising long-term winner probabilities. Institutions are cautious due to soaring capital expenditures, while retail investors see high investment as a prerequisite cost for future hegemony.
The same financial report, two different ways to read it.
What is the outlook for SPCX next?
In the short term, the unlocking negative news temporarily took hold, with strong marginal support appearing near $105-110.
But in the long run, three things truly determine the stock price:
Can Starlink sustain its profits—In Q2, Starlink revenue reached 4.3 billion, making it the only profitable segment, with users doubling to 12 million.
Can AI investment translate into revenue—AI business revenue was 2.56 billion, up 247% year-on-year, but still losing 1.26 billion. More than half of Morgan Stanley's target price comes from AI valuation.
Can Starship move on time—the aerospace business is still losing 540 million, and R&D investment keeps increasing.
If it drops 14% on Wednesday, you're panicking; if it rises 6% on Thursday, you're in FOMO. But the real profiteers see the bottom signal during panic and the next mineshell during the frenzy.SNDK midday market analysis: The 4-hour period showed sharp ups and downs, rebounding from a low of 972.20 to a high of 1518.23 before sharply pulling back. It is currently in a recovery and consolidation phase after a pullback. After the rally, selling pressure is released, resulting in net capital outflows, and short-term bull-bear competition is intense.
- Pressure range: 1340-1380
- Support range: 1220-1180
- Operation Approach:
If the rebound hits resistance at the resistance zone, you can position a short position, with a stop loss at 1420 and a target of 1250-1200;
If the support range stabilizes after a pullback, you can position a long position, with a stop loss at 1140 and a target of 1330-1370 $SNDK