Your BTC candlestick chart is actually a shadow of oil prices and Fed speeches
I woke up this morning and glanced at my account.
BTC is still hovering around $64,000. No rise or fall, just stagnant water.
But have you ever thought that what truly determines the direction of your holdings isn't the few lines on the candlestick chart at all?
It is the Strait of Hormuz.
On August 5, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ghaliba Badi said that the agreement between Iran and Oman on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was "close to finalization."
The market breathed a sigh of relief. Oil prices fell.
But three days passed.
Insiders revealed that reaching an agreement does not mean the strait will immediately reopen. Iran also said: As long as the U.S. continues hostile actions, the strait will remain closed.
Even more ruthless—the Iranian parliament is reviewing a bill to ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from entering the Strait of Hormuz, with violators fined up to one-fifth of the cargo's value.
So what if you sign the agreement? If it can't be enforced, it's as good as not signing.
Now, let me draw a transmission chain for you. This chain is deciding the life or death of your holdings.
👇
Disruptions in Hormuz → oil prices soaring → rising inflation expectations → Federal Reserve rate hikes → non-yielding assets BTC under pressure → shrinking your holdings
Dismantling them one by one.
First Ring: How Important Is the Strait of Hormuz?
About one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes through this strait. On July 23, the strait's traffic volume once dropped to single digits.
Second link: Oil prices have gone crazy.
Today, WTI crude rose 4.06% to $78.27 per barrel. Brent crude rose 5.04%.
Up 5% in one day. The geopolitical risk premium is being re-priced into oil prices.
Third link: Inflation is about to rise.
Energy prices are the core input variable for CPI. For every additional day the strait is blocked, the upward pressure on oil prices increases. Market forecasts for August CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since January.
Fourth link: The Fed can't sit still.
Latest report: Federal Reserve Chair Wash has already opened the door for a rate hike in September. Insiders revealed that if inflation data remains elevated in the coming weeks, Wash will be prepared to raise rates at the September meeting.
U.S. Treasury yields have already moved—the 10-year Treasury yield surged 6 basis points to 4.67%. The market directly voted with its feet: "Wash, we don't believe you're stubborn, we believe the data." ”
Fifth Link: BTC Under Pressure.
This is the most crucial link.
In the past, geopolitical conflicts (such as Russia-Ukraine) would simultaneously drive up oil prices and safe-haven demand for gold/BTC.
But this time was different.
The weight of "interest rate hike suppression" has surpassed that of "safe-haven demand."
That's why—gold actually fell when the war escalated.
The same goes for BTC. The Fed raises rates → sell-off of interest-free assets→ tightening liquidity→ shrinking your holdings.
Today, BTC is trading sideways above $64,000. But sideways movement does not mean safety.
Do you understand?
Your BTC candlestick chart is actually a shadow of oil prices and Fed speeches.
If you can't understand geopolitics, you can't understand the direction of the candlesticks.
Finally, here are two indicators to watch the market:
👉 WTI crude oil prices — If oil prices break 80, inflation expectations can no longer be suppressed.
👉 The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note — if the yield breaks 4.7%, the probability of a Fed rate hike rises sharply.
These two indicators predict BTC's medium-term direction better than any candlestick.
Don't focus on the 15-minute K-line.
Go check oil prices. Go check US Treasury yields.
That is the true "fundamentals" of your holdings.
Every day the Strait of Hormuz closes, your BTC moves one step away from 65,000.
$BTC$BZ$CL #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻, oil price risks have intensified again
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