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The market makers are really ruthless.
In the past hour, the entire network liquidated 238 million, with the longs themselves accounting for 230 million, and the shorts only 6.83 million. All of them were longs chasing highs being crushed to the ground, while the shorts didn't even get a sip.
What was I shouting in my post last night? That the big coin has trapped positions above 86k and 87k, don't chase highs, don't chase highs. But some still didn't believe it. When the big coin surged to 87399, they desperately rushed in. Now look, one sharp drop wiped everything out.
Liquidation data doesn't lie. 230 million longs, this is a clear washout. The market makers deliberately pushed the price up, waiting for retail investors to FOMO into longs, then reversed to smash the market and trigger long leverage. After burning through 230 million in fuel, the longs are cleaned out, and the market looks healthier.
I kept saying yesterday, if there’s no pullback position, I won’t enter. I took profits early on my longs at the high. At this position now, I definitely won’t recklessly catch falling knives.
Plan unchanged: If the big coin can stabilize on a pullback between 84500 and 85000, I’ll add some longs, stop loss at 84000, target 86000. For the second coin, buy between 2700 and 2720, stop loss 2680, target 2800. For SOL, buy between 114 and 115, stop loss 113, target 120.
Just liquidated 230 million longs, the panic selling isn’t over yet, don’t rush to bottom fish. Wait for the sharp drop to recover and volume to stabilize before making a move.July 2027. The Russian Central Bank gave a pretty specific deadline, saying the gray area of illegal currency exchange must disappear before then.
Sounds like they're about to take action, but what I care more about is the attitude behind it.
To put it plainly, they’re not trying to ban currency; they want to move currency exchange from street stalls to official counters. From now on, the white market stays white, the black market stays black, and there’s no room left for the gray area in between.
For old-timers like $BTC, this isn’t new. Every country eventually follows this path: chaos first, then tightening controls.
Once controls tighten, short-term in-and-out transactions get complicated, but in the long run, it removes a layer of unclear risks.
For holders like me who hold long-term, the biggest fear has never been regulation itself, but not knowing which rule might trip me up someday.
At least now we have a timeline. When 2027 really arrives, we’ll see how the market responds.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $BTC The headline survived. The price didn’t.
CME plans regulated $UNI futures for Oct. 19, and UNI initially surged. Hours later, the trade reversed: UNI fell 7.3% in four hours, with about $400K in long liquidations. OKX now shows it near $9.29.
Same catalyst. Completely different positioning.$APP is the next $TTD.
I think:
People will passionately defend it all the way down as current growth & near term estimates look amazing.
They’ll cling to those static datapoints as estimates slowly & steadily fall.
They’ll ignore subtle execution cracks forming… Kokai for Trade Desk… last quarter’s model delay for AppLovin.
They’ll see competition keep undercutting them with their 80% EBITDA margin & they’ll grow more in line with the cyclical industry.
#DailyOrbit #USIranTalksProgress First, you must believe and accept that blockchain can change fate, especially the fate of ordinary people at the bottom who have no money, power, or influence;
Second, and most importantly, you must understand that changing fate is not achieved overnight. It does not require you to work harder; it only requires you to persistently and repeatedly do the simplest things. It requires you to have a long-term vision. Progress made daily will not be wasted!
Put the part you cannot afford to lose in the safest place!
The physical world is indeed very important—clothing, food, housing, and transportation are indispensable. When we achieve results, we can appropriately give back to the physical world, but with limited capacity, not causing trouble and quietly being a consumer is also a contribution!
We must keep up with the times, trends, and currents to be the trendsetters.
In this market, I have witnessed many who started from a5, at most a6.5, quietly reaching a8/a9, but very few who jumped directly from a7/a8 to a9. Most of them first shrank from a7/a8 back to a5/a4, and very few could rise again because their mindset had already collapsed!
Let me tell you a simple story: My cousin, at the hottest time for housing and at the age to get married, had a rigid demand to buy a house. His parents saved 600,000 through a lifetime of frugality and bought a nearly 1.4 million second-hand fully renovated house in a relatively remote area! The mortgage is for 30 years, and about eight years have been paid! Now there is still 580,000 left on the mortgage, but the current market price of the house is 690,000! How do you calculate this? How much is the loss? Starting this year, the mortgage has become a burden! Most of those who bought at the peak are from the lowest strata, and they have exhausted their last bit of savings!
This situation is on the verge of family collapse. If any member falls seriously ill, the consequences are unimaginable! Currently, this situation is common among the lower class!Moscow's exchange really listed $XRP! But don't get too excited yet, pay close attention to these two qualifiers before entering:
1. MOEX exchange launched five ruble perpetual contracts yesterday, one of which is XRP. But note: it's limited to qualified investors, and the XRP margin rate is as high as 43%.
Retail investors can't get in, and volume won't pick up yet, so it's more symbolic than substantial.
2. The issuer hasn't withdrawn: Bitwise just updated the XRP ETF prospectus, but ETF inflows have clearly cooled off this week, and institutions are waiting for clearer signals.
3. Technically, it's about to face the 1.6 integer resistance level, and whether it can break through is crucial. RSI is 65, a bit hot but not overbought yet, with plenty of room to rise.
My advice is not to enter now. XRP has had the curse of integer resistance levels several times, and I have psychological shadows from that, very worried it won't break through.THE BIGGEST TRADING TRAP? TRYING TO WIN FROM EVERY DIRECTION 😭 The longer I stay in crypto, the more I realize something: Sometimes the market isn't the problem. MY CONSTANT SWITCHING IS. 💀 I want to catch the pump. Then I want to short the correction. Then I flip bullish again because I don't want to miss the next breakout. Long → short → long → short... And somehow I manage to get stopped from BOTH sides. 😭 The market doesn't need to destroy your account. Impatience + leverage + FOMO can doThree hours of U.S.-Iran talks in New York — sounds positive, but no breakthrough deal has been announced yet. Qatar helped mediate the discussions, while Iran continues to link any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to conditions including easing the maritime pressure and releasing frozen assets. So for now, this looks more like a negotiation window opening, not the crisis being solved. 👀 Oil reacted quickly to the diplomatic headlines, with Brent moving back below the $100 area at one point. TAs usual, a glance before bed, why has the balance decreased? 😢
$BTC breaks below 84000: A textbook "stop hunt" is happening
Just two days ago, it broke above 84000 triggering $262 million short liquidations; today, at the same level, nearly $1 billion long positions were liquidated in a reverse sweep. The same threshold first kills shorts, then longs—this is a classic two-sided harvesting structure.
What exactly does 84000 represent?
Willy Woo points out that the short-term holder cost basis (STH price) is exactly at 84000 and is moving down daily. The meaning of this level is straightforward: those who entered in the past 155 days have an average holding cost here. If the price falls below it, it means all recent buyers’ chips are underwater, and any rebound will be seen as an "opportunity to break even" rather than the start of a new trend.
Simply put, 84000 is not an ordinary number; it is the on-chain defined "bull-bear dividing line."
Is the macro side cooperating or diverging?
ETF capital flow is not optimistic. Spot ETFs saw $5.3 billion outflow in one month, a record high, with hedge funds withdrawing. But on the other hand, BTC closed above the 50-week moving average on the weekly chart for the first time in 45 weeks. Galaxy Research’s head believes this is a key indicator of a bear market bottom.
Short-term funds are exiting, mid-term structure is repairing. The two are not contradictory, just different time dimensions.$ETH is feeling rough, $BTC directly plunged and smashed the market, breaking the support level. After waiting for a while, the rebound was weak, so I had no choice but to cut losses and exit. 😭
I originally thought the 2715 level could hold steady, so I took a long position there. But who knew the market selling pressure was so heavy that a big bearish candle smashed through the support. I still held some hope, thinking it could quickly bounce back after dropping, but the rebound was very weak and couldn't get back above the original support line.
Continuing to hold on is too risky, so I had to follow the plan and painfully cut losses, losing over 300 USD. This time I really stepped into a trap. What looked like support couldn't hold at all against the market downturn, and after breaking support, it immediately turned into resistance.
Now the price has dropped to around 2663, and the downward momentum hasn't stopped. I want to ask everyone, will $BTC continue to probe lower in this wave? Should we wait and watch for new support, or can we follow the trend and try shorting? Are there any friends who also got stuck trying to bottom-fish at this support level?
$BTC $ZEC #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #$ETH
Ethereum is also in a slight loss state today.
As a temporarily bullish position, I opened a trade around 2720. After oscillating between 2710 and 2724, I decided to stop loss at 2716.
Looking back, this decision was very correct. If I had allowed it to continue falling,
the problem would clearly not be as simple as an 11% loss.
After the US-Iran negotiations broke down, oil prices rebounded, and $BTC $XAU also plummeted together.
Is now really a good opportunity to bottom-fish?
Definitely not. The true bottom has not been reached, and the situation is very serious now.
Bottom-fishing at this time would instead lead to continuous losses.
Even if losses occur, it's best to stay out of the market and wait, just like now. Timely stop-loss is the only way to minimize losses.大饼下午刚冲上 87,280 美元，晚上就一头栽倒在 84,339 美元，把白天狂欢的跟风盘全挂在了山顶。 我复盘今晚的盘面数据，简直是一场教科书级别的诱多杀跌： 下午一度爆拉 35% 冲上 358 美元的 BCH，短短几小时直接跳水回 337 美元；UNI 从 10.4 美元跌回 9.39 美元；以太坊更是一路阴跌到 2,666 美元。大饼日内高低点直接撕扯出 3,400 美元的巨震空间。 为什么白天涨得好好的，晚上突然变脸？ 说白了，资金在借消息做期权交割前的主动压盘。周五就是 160 亿美元的季度期权交割，盘面上看涨期权堆积得太满。做市商为了降低赔付风险，天然有极强的动力把现货价格往下砸。白天 CME 上线期货的消息正好成了最好的诱饵，把场外流动性引诱进去接盘，晚上大资金顺势反手砸盘做对冲。 但问题来了。 如果这只是交割前的定点清算，周五交割落地后大饼应该迅速收复 86,000 美元。 反过来，如果大饼跌破 83,000 美元平台，且现货 ETF 连续两天转为净流出，这波反弹就彻底走到了头。 接下来盯两个细节： 一是 83,800 美元前低支撑能否扛住夜间抛压； 二是周五期权交割$BTC dropped from 87245 to 84376.5, falling nearly 3000 points. Reviewing my own trades.
Previously went long at 86000 without a stop loss, held until 84500 before cutting losses, lost quite a bit. Lesson: don't go long against the trend when it's bearish; 85000 is a strong resistance.
Now support is at 84000, I’m trying a small 5000U long position at the support level, stop loss at 83800, target 85000. Losing 200,000U and trying to recover, never hold a position without a stop loss, definitely remember this time. $ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 2026-09-23 地缘·实体快报（信息截止 22:40） 外交场边博弈寸步不让，利率重压击碎了日内的乐观预期。 晚间核心动态： - 美伊联大交锋复杂化（卫报、半岛电视台）。双方虽进行了三小时密集谈判，但伊朗官方公开否认放弃谈判先决条件，总统佩泽希齐扬登台回击强硬言论。 - 国际海事组织负责人就霍尔木兹海峡发声（半岛电视台），明确指出在国际公海海峡设立通行收费缺乏法律依据，航道控制权争端升级。 - 美英主权债券收益率再度抬头（卫报）。利率预期紧绷打断了美股连续上冲势头，避险买盘重回美元。 核心传导链： 美伊谈判未见实质协议，霍尔木兹海峡通航的乐观预期迅速降温；能源断供担忧无法彻底出清，叠加美英国债收益率反弹，市场对宽松转向的押注落空；美股涨势暂歇引发高位获利抛售；流动性收缩顺势传导至加密盘面，导致大饼跌破 8.5 万美元关口。 接下来盯紧： 一是佩泽希齐扬联大发言后美国的实质制裁动作； 二是美债收益率能否在当前高位止步。
#高利率下，黄金还能走多远？
The boss has something to say
Gold is currently around $4339, having pulled back somewhat from its historical highs but still in a high range. The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates; real interest rates and the dollar are strong, which theoretically puts pressure on non-yielding assets. However, ETF holdings hit a record high in August, China imported over 1000 tons in the first eight months, and central banks and family offices are still buying. High interest rates and allocation demand are in conflict.
My judgment is that gold is suppressed by high interest rates in the short term, but the medium- to long-term logic remains unchanged. Bernstein calls for a target price of 5700, UBS says high interest rates are a short-term headwind but do not change the long-term allocation value. As long as debt and monetary credit issues persist, gold’s floor is supported. But to be cautious, if real interest rates continue to rise and ETF and central bank buying weakens, gold prices will remain under pressure. Market divergence has shifted from rate hikes being bearish for gold to whether structural allocation can withstand high interest rates.
For crypto, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin is strengthening, but this gold rally did not lead Bitcoin. Bitcoin surged to 87,000 then pulled back, still following macro liquidity. Gold is driven by a safe-haven logic, Bitcoin by risk appetite logic, so they are not synchronized in the short term.
Wait for Bitcoin to retrace and see if 84,000 to 85,000 can hold before considering light buying. Macro pressure has not eased; do not chase highs or panic sell. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.Xiaoma's recent gain wasn't luck or a stroke of fortune; it was hitting the logic of asset resonance.
SOXL short position plus BTC short position—both are risk assets, positioned in the same direction.
The market had already warned that with rising US Treasury yields, expectations for rate cuts are cooling. Highly elastic assets bear the brunt first. SOXL itself carries 3x leverage, so its volatility is amplified, falling faster than regular US stocks; BTC, as the risk leader in crypto, has good liquidity and reacts quickly to any news or market stir.
Xiaoma chose the entry point at the resistance zone after the rebound.
Shorted BTC at 85900; although not the highest point, it was still a decent level. SOXL shorted at 142.24; no additional positions were added during the rise because it was expected to break 155, which unfortunately didn’t happen, but it was exactly after the rebound when bullish sentiment started to fade. The market failed to break higher, floating profits from longs began to be realized, and once the price turned, it triggered a chain of stop-loss orders, opening the downside space, allowing our short positions to profit from this pullback.
But it’s important to distinguish: this profit came from the logic aligning and the market cooperating, not that this method works every time.
Especially with BTC at 100x full position leverage—that leverage is truly scary. This time it went smoothly because the market followed expectations; but if a sudden strong rebound spike occurs, losses at 100x leverage will come extremely fast. SOXL is 10x leverage, so the pressure is much less, but still no room for carelessness.
Currently, the profit is floating, not yet realized.
Next, the focus is on changes in US Treasury yields. If yields fall back, risk assets could rebound and recover at any time.
Don’t assume shorting is always a sure win just because this trade made money. The market can change anytime. Protect the profits you’ve made, set stop losses, and don’t be greedy for the last leg of the move.
Correct predictions add points, but in the long run, trading always requires leaving room for the unexpected. Long live Manbo!
$BTC $ETH $SOXL
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ Broke the support! Everything broke the support! Why is it falling this wave?
No one expected that one piece of news would directly crash Bitcoin!
22:00:24 US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.04%, hitting the highest level since 2007.
Then $BTC $ETH directly waterfall, Bitcoin turned down from 85905, it had originally broken above 85900 with volume, no one expected one piece of news to change the fundamentals.
Then at 22:05 Fed Governor Barr: further rate hikes may be needed to ensure a timely return to the 2% inflation target.
Downtrend continuation, Bitcoin kept falling below 84000, Ethereum fell below 2700.
Bitcoin long positions liquidated $70.52 million
Ethereum long positions liquidated $60.633 million
The harshest father in the history of the bulls...
Then a piece of news:
The US delegation left the UN General Assembly hall during Iranian President Raeisi's speech.
This news intensified the negative sentiment.
Total long position liquidations across the network $240 million
The US-Iran situation is temporarily unresolved, the probability of a rate hike in October or December has risen again.
This wave the bears got high, the bulls lost money... Last month, I almost had my wallet stolen by a phishing scam.
It was simple: a fake website that looked almost exactly like the real one.
I clicked in and connected my wallet, then a signature request popped up.
I almost confirmed it in a moment of panic.
Luckily, my phone lagged a bit, so I quickly backed out.
Later, someone in the group said that site specifically steals authorizations.
Once you sign, the $ETH inside gets transferred away.
I was so scared I immediately moved the remaining $USDT to a new wallet.
Then I canceled all the authorizations from the old wallet one by one.
I also withdrew the $TRX, though it wasn’t much.
Now, I pause for three seconds before clicking any link.
I don’t click on anything unfamiliar, especially not links shared in the group.
Airdrop claims, node upgrades—it's all scams.
Real customer service won’t DM you, and they definitely won’t ask for your seed phrase.
Never give your seed phrase to anyone who asks.
Screenshots are no good, cloud storage is no good, even sending it to yourself is no good.
It’s best to write it down on paper and keep copies in two places.
Don’t use just one wallet; separate your funds.
Keep large amounts in cold wallets, small amounts in hot wallets.
Give as few authorizations as possible; don’t take shortcuts.
Now, every time I operate, I feel like a thief, double-checking three times.
Though it’s troublesome, it’s better than losing everything.
There are more bad actors in this space than you might think.
If you’re careless, they’ll celebrate the new year with your funds.
That’s all I wanted to say, just a reminder.BitMine holds 5.98 million ETH. Circulating supply is 122.07 million. That is 4.90% of every ether in existence sitting on one balance sheet, under a company programme named, literally, the Alchemy of 5%.
They are roughly 124,000 ETH from done — about $330 million at today's price, and less than two days of current ETF demand. US spot ETFs took in 67,597 ETH today alone.
$ETH $SOL The recent short sellers were really strong, with Bitcoin dropping all the way to $84,015.2, down 2.23% within 24 hours.
Ethereum fell to $2,651.76, down 3.22%.
Just a few days ago, Bitcoin touched 873; a 3-hour US-Iran meeting released positive signals, with Iran proposing a conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil promptly dropped more than 2%, and the geopolitical risk premium was quickly removed. Bitcoin once surged to 872 during the session.
However, this "cooling trade" did not bring sustained momentum to the crypto market.
After digesting such favorable macro headlines, Bitcoin only showed a fluctuation of a few tenths of a percent, indicating that marginal buyers were more macro allocators rebalancing rather than crypto-native funds.
The cost of the long-short struggle has been severe. In the past 24 hours, over 91,443 people worldwide were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $292 million, approximately ¥1.959 billion RMB.
Technically, the 830–840 range has become a key support for BTC; if it holds, it is expected to challenge 880–900. During the day, the market was still chasing stage highs, but in this hour, over 200 million long positions were liquidated first.
According to BlockBeats citing Coinglass: In the past hour, about $238 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, including approximately $230 million in long positions and about $6.83 million in short positions; BTC briefly dropped below $84,000. Another source, TechFlow from ShenChao, shows that in the past 24 hours, about $504 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network (about $358 million long / about $146 million short), with approximately 120,700 people liquidated; among them, BTC accounted for about $141 million, ETH about $103 million. Hourly liquidations ≠ trend reversal, breaking down ≠ holding steady, and figures vary with the time window. At the time of writing, OKX BTC is about 84340 / ETH about 2668. The above is compiled from public reports and is not investment advice. $BTC $ETH Adding to floating profits feels great as you keep adding, but one pullback and it crashes.The first time I bought crypto was while accompanying my wife shopping and waiting in line at the supermarket.
The person in front of me had a phone screen flashing red and green.
I sneaked a glance and felt an itch in my heart.
When I got home, I downloaded the app and registered, fiddling with it until midnight.
The verification code just wouldn’t come, making me so frustrated I wanted to uninstall.
Once inside, the screen was full of lines I couldn’t understand at all.
I first threw in a few hundred bucks to try it out.
Bought some $BTC.
After buying, I stared at the screen so intently I even forgot to drink water.
When it went up a bit, I chuckled.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being careless.
The next morning, I saw it barely moved and I was exhausted.
Later, I heard $ETH could be used on-chain.
I joined the fun again.
Transferring funds took forever.
The fees made me grit my teeth.
At that time, I joined several groups.
Every day, someone in the group shouted “rush in.”
Hearing that made my hands itch.
Afraid of missing out, I often bought at the peak.
Once I made a profit but didn’t sell, wanting to wait longer.
All the profits flew away and I even lost money.
Another time, it dropped so much I got scared.
Just after selling, it slowly climbed back.
I was so angry I couldn’t eat dinner well.
Later, I tried a small position in $SOL.
It’s really fast and the drops are fierce.
In minutes, it can make you smile or shut you up.
I’ve seen others show off profits and others delete the app.
Gradually, I stopped checking groups.
I don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
I only play with spare money, don’t borrow, and don’t go all in.
I don’t touch projects I don’t understand, even if they’re free.
I sleep when I should at night; if I miss out, so be it.
If I make money, I don’t get cocky; if I lose, I don’t get obsessed.
Being able to keep living is more important than how much you make in one trade.
This is my most genuine feeling after years of messing around. #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ #OracleAdobeToday AI demand is no longer the question. The bill is 👀
Oracle has a massive $638B backlog, but investors want to see how quickly it becomes revenue and whether that cash can outrun AI capex. Adobe faces a similar test with Firefly and GenStudio: can AI lift revenue without eating margins? I take a quick nap, wake up, and boom — another squeeze! Fine. I’m still here. I’m keeping the bearish setup alive, but I’m watching price action carefully rather than blindly throwing more leverage at it. Why am I still looking for a short? 📉 First: $USELESS has already experienced a huge speculative run. At these elevated levels, the market needs continued demand to justify the move. 📊 Second: the current crypto setup reminds me of the period following the previous rate hike. The first phase我們來看一下 Solana 的部分。 現價約 113，短線明顯下跌。下午跟大家說過可以嘗試做空，止損 140；照現在這波回落，有跟上的空單應該已經浮盈了。 點位照舊。壓力仍看 140 到 180，止損鎖 140 沒變。止盈時機自己抓——我這邊習慣只給大家止損點位，止盈看個人風格。若是我現在，會先跑一半，把利潤落袋一部分，剩下繼續帶止損看。 籌碼面上，山寨在大盤回落時往往跌得更兇，合約槓桿一鬆就容易加速。浮盈很舒服的時候，最怕的是捨不得減倉，結果又被洗回去。所以「可以空」跟「要不要全拿」要分開看。 消息面上，它還是跟大盤連動高。這波回落驗證了下午的試空節奏，但不代表後面不會反抽。反抽來了，剩餘倉位就靠 140 這條線守紀律。 做法很單純：浮盈可自行止盈；我會先跑一半。剩下止損仍 140，破了就砍。紀律比方向重要。 點數都講過了，照紀律做。 破 140 就砍，沒得商量。 點位沒變，變的是現價。$BTC
I really didn't expect this today; just a few minutes after entering the market, the news hit hard, so I cut losses in time.
Originally around 85700, I planned to see if it could return to 87000, because at that time I saw it had stabilized above 85000.
But obviously, it did stabilize, but the biggest problem is the news: the US-Iran negotiations have broken down again.
With such a huge market impact, $ETH also plummeted wildly. Now it's all about whether $BTC can hold the 83000 level. If it can hold, then the bull is still alive; if it can't, then get ready to accept the bear market blow.This profit curve looks like it exploded
I felt it was going to go bad this afternoon
US Treasury bonds keep rising
Crude oil is also going up
Crypto is quietly falling
It was originally 1800
Dropped to just 800
Luckily, I reversed to short and recovered a bit
Plus Iran's tough rhetoric
The market crashed directly
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 2026-09-23 ETHUSDT Perpetual Trading Log
Balance: 13.99U
Period: Mainly 15 minutes, 1 hour auxiliary
Leverage: 3x
Today's live trades: 2 orders (1st order completed as planned, 2nd order exited near cost)
1. Market Summary
• During the day, it fell from 2787 to 2748, then broke down further.
• First short segment: 2747 → 2732 → 2715, rebounded to 2724.
• In the evening, 2705 and 2700 were successively broken, accelerating the decline, lowest around 2650.
• Below 2700 is a new downtrend segment; all previous plans are void.
2. Live Trades
1st order: Short ETH
• Plan: Short on a pullback at 2748–2750 resistance.
• Executed: Around 2747.2.
• Execution: Closed half near 2732, reduced once more, remaining closed around 2724 after a rise from 2715.
• Result: Completed as planned, profitable, did not give back profits.
• Review: Clear entry, exit, position reduction, and invalidation lines; today's effective trade.
2nd order: Short ETH
• Plan: After breaking 2708, wait for pullback at 2717–2719 resistance to short, stop loss at 2725.
• Executed: Around 2717.6.
• Execution: Volatility too high, felt tense, closed near the average entry price.
• Result: Break-even.
• Review: Direction was not the main issue; unable to endure the back-and-forth between 2705–2719. Accepted and closed without adding or reversing to long; this is retained.
Then stayed flat. After breaking 2700 and accelerating to 2650, no new positions opened.
3. Rule Execution
• Single order 0.5U limit: Maintained.
• No adding positions: Maintained.
• Wait for confirmation: Basically achieved in 1st order; planned in 2nd order but lacked confidence during holding.
• Stop after consecutive losses: No consecutive losses today.
• New rule effective: After breaking 2700, all previous long/short plans void, reassess.
4. Psychology
• Able to hold and reduce in 1st order shows clear plans can be executed.
• In 2nd order, acknowledged "volatility exceeded tolerance, no regrets." This is more useful than stubbornly holding.
• During accelerated large bearish candles, chose to wait for completion and avoid fighting, preventing small capital from catching falling knives.
5. Rules to keep (for tomorrow)
1. 3x leverage, max loss 0.5U per order, calculate position size before entry.
2. No adding positions. No entry without confirmation.
3. Pre-entry fixed: entry zone, stop loss, first target, invalidation price.
4. If volatility during holding causes tension, allowed to exit near cost, then stay flat without immediately reopening the same segment.
5. After price breaks 2700, all old long/short plans void.
6. Do not chase shorts or bottom-fish during incomplete accelerated large bearish candles.
7. One effective trade per day is enough; do not erode 1st order profits during trash time or acceleration segments.
6. What to watch tomorrow
• Mark new structure first: 2650 low, 2700 round number resistance, pullback pressure.
• Without "pullback resistance" or "close above key level," default to flat.
• Target remains disciplined trades on the path from 13U to 100U, not to recover 2650 tonight.
Today's summary: 1st order effective, 2nd order broke even after recognizing volatility and exiting, then no participation in break and acceleration. Balance 13.99U, discipline more important than direction $ETH #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ Market pullback, options settlement approaching, funds preemptively hedging
The market is broadly retreating, with profit-taking concentrated at high levels. After a sharp rise, the market has entered a period of consolidation and shakeout.
$BTC: Falling from highs, breaking below short-term moving averages, MACD bearish crossover, OBV sharply declining. The main pressure comes from derivatives—nearly $16 billion in BTC options expire on Friday, with Call positions dominant. Market makers may increase short-term volatility to hedge risks, causing funds to withdraw early for safety. Around 84,000 is the key short-term battleground.
$ETH: Down nearly 3%, high elasticity turning into high drawdown. The trend is tightly correlated with BTC, failing to develop an independent rally, with technicals weakening in sync. Moving averages above now act as resistance, requiring time to rebuild momentum.
$SOL: The steepest decline. Besides following the market pullback, Forward Industries in the ecosystem plans to raise $25 million, which in a volatile market is interpreted by funds as potential supply pressure, prompting decisive exit to avoid risk.
This is a normal retracement after a sharp rise, combined with hedging demand before options settlement. It is a process of deleveraging and washing out floating chips, not a trend reversal. Position management is paramount; wait for derivative settlement pressure to ease and stabilization signals before reconsidering. 📉 Bitcoin just dropped from 87,300 to 84,000
24-hour retracement of 3.6%. The past two days saw over $800 million in short liquidations pushing it up, today it's the longs getting liquidated.
1 No sudden negative news. The CLARITY Act failing and the Fed rate hike were last week's events, the market has already digested them.
2 The real trigger was leverage. After the price fell below 85,000, stop-loss orders and long liquidations piled up, causing a stampede. The liquidation zone below is very clear on CoinGlass.
3 ETFs still had a net inflow of $715 million yesterday, institutions haven't fled, it's the contract positions that are exiting.
The pitfall is just one: after rising too fast, leverage didn't come down. First kill the shorts, then kill the longs, that's the rhythm in crypto these days.
Still holding?
#Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptocurrency #Contracts #Dive
$BTC $DOGE $OKB A common signal has appeared on-chain: exchange balances of BTC, ETH, and SOL are all declining. But the price reactions are completely different, indicating that funds are being reallocated.
$BTC: Balances have dropped to multi-year lows, with ETF inflows for two consecutive days this week, nearly 1 billion on 9/21 alone. Institutions are re-entering the market after the bill failed. The price holding at 84K indicates that selling pressure mainly comes from short-term traders, while long-term holders remain unmoved.
$ETH: Balances are also decreasing, combined with staking lock-ups, tightening the circulating supply. However, with the Glamsterdam upgrade approaching and technicals still fluctuating below 2.7K, the market has yet to price this in.
$SOL: Balances are also reducing, but after a 20% monthly gain, profit-taking is occurring. The long-term narratives of RWA and DeFi remain intact, but short-term needs to digest the gains.
The exchange balances of all three coins are decreasing, which is a shared positive signal — selling pressure is easing. But a catalyst is needed for a rally: clear regulatory paths for BTC, the Glamsterdam upgrade for ETH, and ecosystem data for SOL. Until the direction is clear, patience is advised.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 #Arc主网上线首日数据出炉 #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 What happened? Why did $BTC suddenly crash?
Just a moment ago, we were still discussing whether $BTC had a chance to hit 90,000, but when I turned to check the market, the price had already dropped to around 84,000.
I checked the news, but there wasn't any major negative information.
It's just that the US stock market opened weak. Oil prices and US Treasury yields rose, and tech stocks followed down...
Right now, the most uncomfortable are probably those who just chased in around 86,000 or 87,000.
Watching Bitcoin keep going up, they thought a slight pullback would be bought up; but when it really dropped, the quotes moved faster than their thoughts. After this wave of the market surge, the whole market collectively "bows down to rest." Many people have already started imagining a big bear market is coming. My view is simple and straightforward: this is a pullback to digest the overbought rise. After the pullback, the bullish outlook remains; don't be scared off by a single bearish candle.
$BTC
After a strong rally, a long upper shadow was thrown out, with many rushing to take profits and exit. Fortunately, the 5-day moving average is still firmly supporting, and the bulls' structure hasn't collapsed.
Attack point: Holding above 85200 means this rest is enough, and we can aim to retest the previous highs around 87300‑87400.
Defense point: 83700. If the daily candle decisively breaks below this level, the pullback will be significant, and the bullish stance should be abandoned. The next support to watch for survival is 80700.
$ETH
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's pullback is ruthless. After hitting 2806, it dropped sharply with a big bearish candle and is now hovering below the 5-day moving average without a sign of stabilization.
Attack point: Regaining and holding above 2720 is needed to catch a breath and have a chance to retest the 2800 highs.
Defense point: 2570. If it can't hold the MA10 level, this upward momentum is paused, and don't stubbornly fight the market.
$ZEC
The most volatile among the three brothers, it surged the most and fluctuated wildly. It pulled back after the high but all moving averages are supporting the price. Friendly reminder: this coin often experiences sharp spikes, so when trading, always leave room for slippage.
Attack point: Holding above 1635 to continue pushing towards the previous high at 1680.
Defense point: 1515. If it falls below the 5-day moving average, the short-term trend will pause and rest, with further support at 1406.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $84,000 support line in danger: Bulls and bears battle nearly $2 billion, who is orchestrating this surge and fall?
On September 23, Bitcoin dropped to $84,015.2, down 2.23% within 24 hours; Ethereum fell to $2,651.76, down 3.22%. Just one day earlier, Bitcoin had touched $87,300, marking a new high since January 2026. The 3-hour US-Iran talks released positive signals—Iran proposed a conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude oil fell over 2% in response, geopolitical risk premiums were quickly removed, and Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,200 intraday.
However, this "cooling trade" did not bring sustained momentum to the crypto market. After digesting such a bullish macro headline, Bitcoin only moved by a fraction of a percent, indicating that marginal buyers were more macro allocators rebalancing rather than crypto-native funds.
The cost of the bulls and bears struggle was severe. In the past 24 hours, over 91,443 people worldwide were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $292 million, approximately ¥1.959 billion. Technically, the $83,000 to $84,000 range has become a key support for BTC; if held, it could challenge $88,000 to $90,000; ETH must hold the $2,550 support line. In the medium to long term, the market is expected to continue wide-range oscillations. #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Just finished going through the Fed officials' speeches. Honestly, I have only one feeling — this isn't over, and don't expect any straightforward answers in the short term.
Barkin laid it out clearly: over 60% of PCE subcomponents have year-over-year increases still above 3%, so inflation risk outweighs unemployment risk. Collins added on, saying the likelihood of inflation staying above 2% is rising. Moussaalem was even more direct, suggesting further tightening may be necessary. Three hawks speaking on the same day with surprisingly consistent messages — this is no coincidence.
On CME, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October has reached 54.2%. What does 54.2% mean? It's basically a coin toss; the market itself is conflicted. To put it plainly, the question now isn't whether to hike, but how long this tightening cycle will last.
Inflation hasn't collapsed, employment remains strong, so high interest rates won't be "withdrawn immediately" but will be a "long-term" matter.
---
Let's talk about $BTC.
Short term is definitely uncomfortable, no avoiding that. The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed back above 5%, making the opportunity cost of risk-free assets obvious. Capital would rather earn 5% interest than bear volatility.
ETF data illustrates this further: on September 18, net inflows were only $6.21 million for the week, nearly the lowest in 141 weeks. Then suddenly on September 21, it exploded to $999 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. This on-again, off-again rhythm raises doubts about sustainability; once it stops, a pullback is likely. $BTC is hovering around 86,000, with a slight intraday dip; $ETH fell below 2,700. The Fear & Greed Index is at 70, in the greed zone, but down 9 points from yesterday, indicating sentiment is ebbing.
But looking at the longer term, the logic is completely different.
US national debt just broke 40 trillion in August, with annual interest payments soaring to 1.2 trillion, roughly equal to defense spending. The CBO forecasts that within ten years, public debt held as a percentage of GDP will rise to 120%. Interest keeps compounding, forcing the Treasury to issue more debt to cover payments. Ultimately, this leads either to implicit money printing or inflation dilution — either way, the dollar's credit is being eroded.
$BTC, as a non-sovereign hard asset, benefits from this dynamic.
So at this point, don't chase highs or panic. Short term watch interest rates; medium term watch credit. Once the rate hike path becomes clear, the direction will naturally emerge.
Do you think there will be a hike in October? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 The first time I heard people talking about crypto was at the small convenience store downstairs.
Two older guys were buying cigarettes and talking about how they made money yesterday.
I pretended to pick out a drink while listening closely.
When I got home, I searched how to buy.
After downloading the app and registering for a long time,
I waited for the verification code and almost wanted to throw my phone.
Once inside, the screen was full of red and green lines.
I looked for ten minutes but still didn’t understand.
I first deposited a few hundred yuan, my fingers trembling.
Bought some $BTC.
After buying, I stared at the screen.
If it went up a bit, I grinned.
If it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless.
My lunch got cold and I didn’t touch it.
At night, lying in bed, I still checked my phone.
The next day, seeing it barely moved, I was exhausted first.
Later, I heard people say $ETH can be used on-chain.
I joined the fun again.
Transferring funds took forever.
The fees made me grit my teeth.
At that time, I joined several groups.
Every day someone in the group shouted to rush in.
I got itchy hands hearing that.
Afraid of missing out, I often bought at the top.
Once I made a profit but didn’t sell.
Wanted to wait longer, but all the profits vanished.
Another time it dropped and I panicked.
Just sold it, then it slowly rose back.
I was so mad I slapped my thigh.
Later, I tried $SOL with a small position.
It’s really fast.
When it pumps, it’s fierce.
In minutes it can make you smile.
In minutes it can make you shut up.
I’ve seen others show off profits,
and others lose so much they delete the app.
Gradually, I stopped checking groups.
I don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
Only play with spare money.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t go all in.
Don’t touch projects I don’t understand, even if free.
Sleep when it’s time to sleep at night.
If I miss out, I miss out.
Don’t get cocky when you win.
Don’t get upset when you lose.
Being able to keep going is more important than how much you make in one trade.
This is my most honest feeling after messing around these years #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ Peter Brandt said if ETH breaks 5000, it can reach 8600.
I've been staring at this number for a long time.
He has been trading since 1976 and has seen all kinds of situations. Charts drawn by someone like him are very likely to be correct.
But the problem lies here as well.
He specifically added a sentence: Posting a chart doesn't mean he actually made that trade; anyone claiming they did must provide proof.
This sentence is more valuable than 8600.
It means—don't take my chart as your position.
I remember when I used to see such target levels, my first reaction was to calculate how much I could earn, never how much I would lose if I was wrong.
Now when I see this kind of news, I habitually think of one thing first: If it really reaches 8600, who is selling me the 3600 points in between?
Veteran draws the chart, novice takes the position, this script is too familiar.
Remember 8600 for now, I’m more interested in seeing who is placing orders at the 5000 level.
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $ETH There is a rather counterintuitive phenomenon in the crypto circle.
When a coin hits a new high, everyone starts researching why it can rise to 100,000.
When a coin falls for two days, everyone starts researching why it will go to zero.
The same SOL, with different prices, leads to completely opposite conclusions in the comment section.
So I view this surge and pullback the same way.
I don't think it will keep going north just because the weekly chart rose 20%.
Nor do I think the RWA narrative is just a pipe dream because it fell 3% today.
What needs to be studied should still be studied—Autobahn, 200,000 TPS, Ondo's USDY integration are solid facts.
What needs to be doubted should still be doubted—the monthly chart has risen a lot, and profit-taking could happen at any time.
When it comes to your own money, you still have to figure it out yourself.
$SOL
#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ SOL's spike to 119.7 today surged briefly, but no one dared to follow the wave at 120.0.
Yesterday's low was 115.6, the high was 120.0, and it closed at 117.4. Today it opened around 117.4, peaked at 119.7 without breaking through, dropped to a low of 113.0, and the current price is about 114.5. The volume ratio shrank again compared to yesterday; after the upward surge, it slid back down.
The resistance remains between 119.7 and 120.0, with the next major high at 295.9 above that. If it breaks below 113.0, it’s likely to first test 108.5; if that level doesn't hold, the short-term target will be around 107.4 to find space.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 114.5 can hold. If it can't hold, treat the recent rise and fall as digestion and avoid chasing at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low of 113.0 today can support; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait for a pullback and reconsider if it can't break through 120.0—don't catch a falling knife mid-air. $SOL $SOL The core of SOL's rise in this round is solving historical fatal shortcomings and establishing a differentiated high-speed settlement narrative from Ethereum. The official launch of the Firedancer multi-client eliminates the risk of a single client outage, achieving a qualitative change in network stability. Its low latency and high throughput characteristics suit high-frequency trading and on-chain clearing, forming a unique track positioning. The token economy significantly enhances fee burning through the SIMD proposal, directly converting on-chain activity into deflation, with inflation decreasing year by year, improving the long-term supply-demand structure.
The US spot SOL ETF and staking ETF continue to see capital inflows, opening compliant allocation channels for family offices and asset management institutions, bringing sustained base buying. The ecosystem forms a clear differentiated layout: Ethereum focuses on heavy DeFi and traditional RWA, while SOL undertakes AI Agents, lightweight asset tokenization, and on-chain Meme asset circulation. On-chain active addresses and stablecoin trading volume continue to rise. Meme is just short-term traffic; the long-term core is the infrastructure demand for institutional RWA and AI autonomous trading. Coupled with improved expectations for crypto regulation in this cycle, funds no longer treat it as a follower substitute for ETH but as an independent high-speed settlement layer, becoming a relatively resilient target among the top-tier public chains in this bull market.$BTC has fallen below 85000, now at 84376.5, are you panicking?
I previously lost 200,000 U because I panicked and cut losses recklessly, now I've learned my lesson. Resistance is at 85000, support at 84000, the range is very clear.
I have a small 5000 U position going long near 84000, stop loss set at 83800, target at 85000. Never hold a position without a stop loss, accept losses when they happen, take profits when you can, don't be greedy. $ #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $BTC $ZEC
Rallied again. It's not the market going crazy, it's me being wrong about the direction.
Phone turned on and off repeatedly. Didn't uninstall the app, just threw the icon into a corner, like hiding losses in a drawer.
At first, I didn't set a stop loss, thinking I could hold through. Now I realize holding on isn't a plan, it's procrastination; looking for funds isn't a cure, it's just paying for mistakes.
In a bull market, I stubbornly run against the flow, like rushing down an escalator. While others count profits, I count how many points I am away from the break-even line.
I no longer pray to God. God is busy, candlesticks don't listen to prayers. I only ask myself: stop first, find cash flow first, stabilize life first. Getting back to break-even isn't faith, it's a signpost; when you get there, reduce your position, leave, don't look back.
$BTC $ZEC, it's not bad compatibility, it's me mistaking obsession for a trading system.
This time I won't uninstall. I'll keep it as a mirror. If I really can get out, before quitting the circle, I'll do only one thing: carve "stop loss" before the next position opening.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ DOGE made a quick spike to 0.1044 today, but no one dared to follow the wave up to 0.1059.
Yesterday's low was 0.0952, the high was 0.1059, and it closed at 0.1000. Today it opened around 0.1000, peaked at 0.1044 without breaking through, bottomed at 0.0986, and the current price is about 0.0992. The volume ratio has shrunk significantly compared to yesterday; after the upward push, it slid back down.
There is still resistance between 0.1044 and 0.1059 above; only beyond that is the high point around 0.74. If it breaks below 0.0986, it’s likely to test 0.0952 first; if that level doesn’t hold, the short-term target will be around 0.0856 to find space.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 0.0992 can hold. If it can’t, treat the recent rise and fall as digestion and don’t chase the price now. For those already holding, watch if the low at 0.0986 today can hold; if not, consider reducing your position. For those looking to buy on dips, wait for a pullback and consider only if it can break past 0.1059; don’t catch a falling knife in midair. $DOGE Early morning BTC at 84K directly long
The previous high of 87.3K is the new high since January in this round, after a surge it pulled back to 84K, the cup handle is consolidating, the 100-day EMA is above 80K.
Double kill — the clear bill failure and the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points — neither broke below 80K, ETF inflows continued for two consecutive days this week, nearly 1 billion on 9/21 in a single day, institutions haven't fled at all.
Directly long, operate around 84K, the target first looks at the previous high of 87.3K, once that line is passed, 90K is the next stop.
It's just that straightforward to go long! A pullback to 80K is an opportunity to add positions!
$BTC #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 $BTC 847 took 120 hits✅
The main force chose to hunt downward, driven by the US stock market. The Nasdaq opened and fell all the way, and the US stock market declined. This is a macro risk, breaking the main force's upward momentum, which was unexpected. There's no time yet to study the new range.
However, this wave of reducing position risk was very extreme. Just after finishing, it started to fall, which involves an element of luck. Closed contracts + reduced altcoins, the only thing I didn't do was protect the BTC position. Overall, I'm very satisfied. Brothers, I hope you are too Is the altcoin season here? The Glassnode indicator has just shifted into "altcoin season," but are your positions in BTC or altcoins?
I came across some interesting data this morning.
Glassnode's "altcoin cycle" indicator officially entered "altcoin season" this week, with the 7-day moving average rising to 81.25, an absolute high within the 0 to 100 range.
This is not said lightly. Look at the data:
The total market cap of altcoins has surged to $1.19 trillion, hitting a new high since the end of January this year, up 33% cumulatively since August 19. Bitcoin's market dominance only slightly increased from 59.2% on August 19 to 59.7%, basically unchanged — indicating that funds are flowing out to altcoins rather than just pulling BTC.
And this time it's different from the August wave. Glassnode specifically pointed out: the first rebound in August was mainly driven by Bitcoin, with altcoins overall remaining flat; but this round, the market has spread to a broader altcoin market.
But here come some very real questions:
ETH is holding above 2700, SOL just broke 120, and DOGE rose 11% in a single day. So how much has your altcoin position recovered?
ETF funds are still flowing in — the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $1 billion in a single day, and the Ethereum ETF absorbed $414 million over two days. But this money mainly goes into BTC and ETH, not small-cap coins.
This is the most painful part: the "altcoin season" indicator lighting up doesn't mean every altcoin will rise. The kind of market in 2021 where "you could buy any altcoin and double your money" might not appear this round at all. Funds are rotating toward large-cap altcoins — ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB — rather than spreading to the "alts among alts."
Discuss your portfolio structure in the comments. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $DOGE $ZEC $SOL OKX perpetual total open interest increased to $8.223 billion, BTC funding rate at 0.0024% with no leverage chasing higher
Tonight, OKX perpetual total open interest rose to $8.223 billion, with BTC funding rate only 0.0024%, so night session holders don’t have to bear high funding fees.
I just checked the OKX contracts page and the market cap shrank by 3.22% in the last 24 hours across the whole market, but OKX perpetual total open interest didn’t decrease; instead, it increased to $8.223 billion. BTC perpetual alone accounts for $3.224 billion, ETH accounts for $1.876 billion. The overall fear and greed index dropped from extreme greed yesterday to 71 in the greed zone, indicating a slight cooling of bullish sentiment.
I also switched to the spot page to check: BTC is listed at 85,333.4 USDT, ETH at 2,699.93 USDT. BTC contract funding rate is 0.0024%, ETH rate is 0.003%, which annualizes to less than 1.1%. The altcoin-to-BTC open interest ratio is suppressed to 0.969, and BTC’s market cap share across the network remains at 58.78%, with funds revolving entirely within Bitcoin, leaving little for altcoin markets.
I personally hold my spot base position during the night session without moving it, and I’m not in a hurry to add leverage or chase orders in the contract account. As long as OKX perpetual open interest stays steadily above $8.2 billion with smooth turnover, I will continue to wait for the US stock night session liquidity to fully play out.$USELESS — they liquidated me, so I’m shorting again. 😤🔥
This altcoin has little fundamental value, while the broader market looks eerily similar to the post-rate-hike setup: euphoria first, weakness later.
$USELESS topped near $0.3588 and is struggling around $0.335. EMA5/10/20 are turning bearish, hinting momentum may be fading. 📉
I added a 5x short around $0.3337, liquidation near $0.4104.
⚠️ High risk. No blind leverage. Watch the levels, not the hype.
$BTC $ETH #BTC87KCryptoCap3T Fixing the faucet or turning back time? An article explaining the essential difference between hard forks and rollbacks, did CORE make the wrong choice?
⚠️This article is based solely on publicly available on-chain information and does not constitute any investment advice
Many people confuse hard forks with rollbacks, thinking that if a vulnerability occurs, a hard fork can erase the loss. To put it simply: hard fork = fixing the faucet, stopping future leaks; rollback = turning back time, erasing transactions that have already happened.
The 8.31 reward contract crisis, the CORE project team chose a hard fork (forward upgrade), firmly refusing to do an on-chain rollback. This technical choice directly determined the subsequent long-term stagnation of the token price.
1. Hard Fork VS Rollback, the core difference
✅ Hard Fork (forward upgrade, CORE's current solution)
Only modifies future network rules, patches contract vulnerabilities, and blocks channels that continue to be exploited for rewards.
All transactions that have already occurred and tokens that have already been released are fully retained; the ledger history will not be rewritten.
It's like a burst pipe at home: fixing the valve stops future leaks, but the water already spilled on the floor cannot be recovered.
CORE's Hermes hard fork this time blocked the vulnerability to prevent validators from continuing to claim excessive rewards; however, the 69 million ghost tokens already withdrawn remain legally on-chain and will not be destroyed.
✅ Rollback (turning back time solution, not adopted by CORE)
Restores the entire blockchain ledger to the block height before the vulnerability was exploited, revoking all transactions during the attack period, and returning tokens to their original accounts.
Typical case: The 2016 Ethereum The DAO hack, where Ethereum chose rollback, returning stolen funds to their original paths, at the cost of splitting the chain into ETH and ETC.
Rollback has huge costs: rewriting the ledger breaks the blockchain's fundamental consensus of "transactions are immutable," requiring all DApps, exchanges, and cross-chain bridges to adapt synchronously, causing massive trust disputes.
2. CORE faced two choices at the time, each with pros and cons
Choice 1: Hard fork, no rollback (project team's final solution)
Advantages:
1. Does not alter historical ledger, defends the narrative of blockchain immutability, avoids community splits;
2. Technically easier to implement, does not disrupt all on-chain DApps, staking, or exchange funds.
Fatal disadvantage:
The 69 million CORE tokens exploited by the vulnerability cannot be recovered. These low-cost tokens become ghost chips hanging over the market, ready to be sold on the secondary market at any time.
Blocks future vulnerabilities, but historical selling pressure remains permanently.
Choice 2: Initiate ledger rollback
Advantages: Directly revoke the excess tokens issued, eliminate ghost chips, restore the token release curve to the original plan, and remove the biggest selling pressure risk.
Huge disadvantages:
1. Rewrites on-chain history, directly damaging the public chain's belief in immutability; institutions worry that the project team could rollback any transaction at will in the future;
2. Many normal user transactions, staking, and transfers on-chain would be revoked, causing asset state confusion for many innocent users, DApp ecosystem paralysis, exchange business chaos, and severe community splits.
3. Did CORE really make the wrong choice? The market has given the answer
From a purely technical security perspective: hard fork is prudent, blocking vulnerabilities and preventing recurrence, and ordinary user assets were not stolen.
But from the token economics and secondary market perspective, this choice came at a heavy cost.
Institutions evaluating public chains value predictable token release models. The 8.31 incident proved that the original release rules could be broken by vulnerabilities; and the project team's refusal to rollback or destroy excess tokens means the risk remains permanently on the table.
Even though the Hermes hard fork completed the upgrade and no similar vulnerabilities will appear again, the 69 million ghost chips still exist. Once the market rallies, low-cost chips will be cashed out to dump the price, and major funds are unwilling to enter and support the price.
This explains why the BTCFi sector has warmed up, STX continues to strengthen, but despite continuous positive news, CORE's price has long been stagnant.
Objectively speaking: there is no absolutely perfect option. Rollback can eliminate ghost chips but destroys the underlying consensus of the public chain, bringing another set of greater risks. The project team chose the lesser of two evils, but market funds are unwilling to pay for this choice.
4. Extended thoughts: public chain crises and the trade-offs of two repair solutions
- Rollback: short-term relief of token selling pressure, long-term sacrifice of blockchain immutability consensus;
- Hard fork only without rollback: preserves ledger history but leaves historical chip risks, continuously suppressing token price.
Many retail investors hope the project team will destroy ghost chips, but under the no-rollback solution, the project team has no authority to directly destroy tokens already legally transferred out of user addresses.
Summary
Hard fork is fixing the faucet to prevent future leaks; rollback is turning back time to erase past transactions.
CORE chose a hard fork forward upgrade, successfully stopping the vulnerability from being exploited further, but unable to erase the 69 million ghost tokens already released.
This choice preserved ledger history but destroyed the predictability of the token release model, becoming the root cause of subsequent price stagnation.
There is no perfect solution; every technical decision must be paid for by the secondary market.
💬 Interactive question: If CORE had chosen rollback back then and ghost chips disappeared, would the market situation be completely different now?
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