#LaborMarketTestsWalsh

#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 After Wash's speech, where will the market go? What opportunities do we have? Once Wash spoke, many people's expectations for rate cuts vanished. The rate cut dreams from the Powell era, frankly, all turned into fleeting illusions. This guy's tone was quite firm, basically saying inflation isn't falling fast enough, and the Fed could raise rates at any time. The market responded realistically; the probability of a rate hike in September surged past 50%, and sentiment immediately shifted to a tightening capital environment. If you closely watch the US stock market, you'll find the crisis has long been written in. The S&P 500 just broke a record high, but buying is becoming more concentrated, and the divergence between price and market breadth has hit a nearly 30-year record. The funniest part is those who blindly chased AI hype; before, even pigs could fly, but now with a slight cooldown, many have ridden an extremely thrilling roller coaster on hardware stocks—the unrealized gains didn't get realized in time and were quickly given back. Everyone is asking, with the one-way rally over, what exactly will make money next? Think about it, in this kind of high-level volatility, the worst thing is to put all your chips in one direction. Recently, I talked with some traders, and they brought up Brown's old-fashioned "permanent portfolio" again. The logic behind it is extremely simple: allocate a quarter each to stocks, long-term bonds, Bitcoin, and cash, then periodically rebalance. The best part of this mechanism is that it forces you to buy high and sell low by design: when assets skyrocket, you sell some; when they crash, you buy the dip to replenish.

Bitcoin Is Near $79K. The Next 5 Days Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering one of the most important macro weeks of the current market. Bitcoin is trading around the $78K area after recovering from the recent sell-off. But the market is now facing a much bigger catalyst. The U.S. jobs report. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, September 4. And this time, the number could have a direct impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve's next decision. That makes the next few days more important than they might look. 🟠 $BTC IS STUCK BETWEEN TWO FORCES Bitcoin recently pushed above $81K before reversing sharply toward $77K. The $77K area has so far acted as important support. But $80K remains a major psychological and technical barrier. So the current structure is simple: $77K is where buyers need to defend. $80K is where bulls need to reclaim. $81K is where the previous rally peaked. Until one of these levels breaks decisively, Bitcoin is still inside a range. The problem is that macro conditions are becoming more important. 🏦 THE FED JUST CHANGED THE EQUATION Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message at Jackson Hole. Markets reacted quickly. The implied probability of a September rate hike reportedly increased to around 57%. The U.S. dollar strengthened. Treasury yields moved higher. And risk assets came under pressure. That creates a difficult environment for $BTC. Bitcoin has benefited significantly from expectations of easier financial conditions. If markets start pricing tighter monetary policy instead, liquidity becomes less supportive. But there is another side to the story. The Fed now has to look closely at the labor market. And that is where Friday's jobs report becomes critical. 📊 THE JOBS REPORT COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING The August U.S. employment report is scheduled for September 4. The previous report showed a weak labor market. July payroll employment declined by 23,000, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

$BTC : The Risk Signal Is Turning Red Walsh’s hawkish stance has pushed September rate-hike expectations higher. With restrictive rates likely to persist, risk assets are facing a tougher macro backdrop. Next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE data could become the catalyst. Any major disappointment may trigger a sharp risk-off move. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

🚨 Wash says "interest rate hike," trying to scare BTC off? Don't rush. Wash emphasizes inflation risk, with expectations of a rate hike in September heating up, the crypto community's first reaction is simple: Dollar strengthens → risk assets under pressure → BTC gets hit short-term. But this feels more like a macro sentiment shock, not a sudden deterioration in BTC's fundamentals.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

📊 [Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

Bitcoin Is Near $79K. The Next 5 Days Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering one of the most important macro weeks of the current market. Bitcoin is trading around the $78K area after recovering from the recent sell-off. But the market is now facing a much bigger catalyst. The U.S. jobs report. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, September 4#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BroadcomDellAIResults

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

#WalshInflationRisk Walsh didn’t commit to a September hike at Jackson Hole, but the market clearly heard a warning 🏛️ He said inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions are not restrictive and the labor market is still near full employment. He also pushed back on forward guidance, keeping short-term rates as the Fed’s main policy tool. What stood out to me is how quickly expectations shifted without an explicit promise. September hike odds rose from around 35% to nearly 58%, while the two-year yield moved from 4.22% to 4.35%. Stocks, gold and BTC all fell afterward 📉 To me, this wasn’t a clear signal that a hike is coming. It was a reminder that the Fed doesn’t believe the inflation problem is finished—and doesn’t want markets assuming the path is already decided. September now feels less about one speech and more about which incoming data point breaks the balance first.

MACRO HAS CHANGED THE SHORT TERM GAME The Jackson Hole message was a clear reminder that the market may have priced in easier monetary policy too quickly. The Fed didn't promise rate cuts. Instead, the focus remains firmly on inflation, employment and financial conditions, leaving the door open to tighter policy if the data demands it. Markets reacted immediately. September rate-hike expectations moved sharply higher, while Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened. That combination creates a difficult environment for crypto. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. A stronger dollar can also reduce global liquidity available for speculative markets. And when liquidity becomes tighter, the assets with the highest beta usually feel the pressure first. That's why I'm more cautious on altcoins, meme coins and heavily leveraged positions in the short term. But I wouldn't jump from "hawkish Fed" straight to "new bear market." The Fed hasn't actually delivered a rate hike. The next major data points still matter. If inflation remains stubborn and employment stays strong, markets could continue pricing a higher-for-longer environment. If inflation cools and labor-market conditions weaken, rate-hike expectations could reverse just as quickly. For BTC, the immediate priority is defending support and rebuilding momentum rather than chasing another breakout. For ETH, the same principle applies. A bounce from support is encouraging, but it needs follow through before calling the correction finished. So my current view is simple: Short-term: cautious and bearish. Medium-term: waiting for the data. The biggest mistake right now would be treating one macro event as the final verdict. Let the price confirm what the macro is telling us. If buyers can absorb the pressure and reclaim key resistance, the bullish structure can recover. If support keeps breaking while yields and the dollar continue rising, the market may need a deeper reset. For now, bulls need to prove they still have control. #WalshPolicyFramework