TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
34Following
1.7Kfollowers
Feed
Feed
Let me share my thoughts on the Bitcoin pullback. The conclusion upfront: for a regular pullback, look at 76k; for a deep pullback, look at 72k.
This rally started with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet doubling through repurchases, the White House convening a meeting with major players including Coinbase and Robinhood, and Trump calling for the passage of the Clarity Act. This was a combined squeeze move that directly eliminated over 4 billion in shorts. Subsequently, inflows into spot ETFs sustained the high-level consolidation.
Of course, the pullback premise is that there will indeed be a rate hike in September; if not, the price might directly break through 82k and test above 90k. $BTC
Assuming the division of labor and cooperation theory among Trump, Brainard, and Waller holds.
Under the current situation where Waller has been consistently hawkish, if inflation does not show significant improvement and the Fed suddenly stops raising rates in September, the bond market might start to believe that: the Fed is constrained by fiscal policy and is unwilling/unable/afraid to control inflation. The result could be unchanged policy rates, but rising long-term bond yields and corporate financing costs.
This would become a choice between two evils, a futile effort, and the personal credibility of the Fed and Waller would be seriously damaged.
Therefore, even if this Friday's CPI data is extremely dovish and the Fed really stops raising rates, Waller must maintain a hawkish stance; this is the last bottom line with no retreat.
In this case, relying solely on CPI statistics might still lack persuasiveness. At least Trump needs to quickly ease the Iran situation and lower oil prices during the week of 9.11-9.17, giving the market the illusion that oil prices are indeed controllable to support the decision not to raise rates.
So, if they are indeed managing the pace, the path that best fits the goal should be: allow oil price disturbances in the market but push for cooling when constraints are too strong; allow stock pullbacks but try to keep corporate financing smooth.
If Trump promotes easing the situation and oil prices fall, and Waller completes one rate hike, then the market lowers expectations for further hikes, gold, storage, and Bitcoin could all continue a recovery rally after the negative factors have been fully priced in. $XAUT $CL
TraderS | 缺德道人
Assuming the U.S. is really like the hot posts circulating these days: Trump, Bassett, and Walsh cooperate by dividing control over oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, interest rates, and the probabilities of rate hikes and cuts.
Especially Trump can completely adjust the pace of war in the Strait of Hormuz in Iran (for example, delaying retaliation, holding back) to short-term regulate oil prices, so inflation data can also be adjusted in the short term.
Then the recent rise in oil prices can be a good excuse for Walsh to be hawkish or even to raise rates in September.
If they really want to raise rates in September, they can keep oil prices high continuously.
If after the CPI release on September 11 the probability of a rate hike in September is maxed out and they want to suppress it again, then they can lower oil prices after the September 11 CPI data release. This way, even if the FOMC meeting on September 16 does not raise rates, they can say it’s because the high oil prices are not sustained (although the CPI released on September 11 is for August, they can forcibly explain that the high oil prices are not sustained). The Federal Reserve perfectly steps down. This allows them to advance or retreat, and at worst maintain a hawkish stance.
In short, whether to raise rates or not can be coordinated with oil prices, thus maintaining the Fed’s independent image and credibility.
If this speculation holds, then shorting crude oil might only be possible after the CPI data release. Let’s watch and see next week $CL
Assuming the U.S. is really like the hot posts circulating these days: Trump, Bassett, and Walsh cooperate by dividing control over oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, interest rates, and the probabilities of rate hikes and cuts.
Especially Trump can completely adjust the pace of war in the Strait of Hormuz in Iran (for example, delaying retaliation, holding back) to short-term regulate oil prices, so inflation data can also be adjusted in the short term.
Then the recent rise in oil prices can be a good excuse for Walsh to be hawkish or even to raise rates in September.
If they really want to raise rates in September, they can keep oil prices high continuously.
If after the CPI release on September 11 the probability of a rate hike in September is maxed out and they want to suppress it again, then they can lower oil prices after the September 11 CPI data release. This way, even if the FOMC meeting on September 16 does not raise rates, they can say it’s because the high oil prices are not sustained (although the CPI released on September 11 is for August, they can forcibly explain that the high oil prices are not sustained). The Federal Reserve perfectly steps down. This allows them to advance or retreat, and at worst maintain a hawkish stance.
In short, whether to raise rates or not can be coordinated with oil prices, thus maintaining the Fed’s independent image and credibility.
If this speculation holds, then shorting crude oil might only be possible after the CPI data release. Let’s watch and see next week $CL
According to the current script of expectation management verified again by Peking University's non-farm payroll data:
Wash first raises the rate hike probability to 60%—70%
↓
Waller pushes it back to around 50% before the blackout period to eliminate one-sided crowding
↓
The big non-farm payroll performs steadily, restoring the probability to about 60%
↓
PPI and CPI are on the hot side, pushing the probability to 75%—90%
↓
A 25 basis point rate hike on September 16, which does not constitute a true surprise attack
This script is completely logical.
The CME's September rate hike expectation probability has currently rebounded by eight points to 58.1%, and it is estimated to eventually rebound to around 60%.
Breaking it down, among the 162,000 new jobs added today, 59,000 were in catering and 40,000 in local government education. If these two categories are excluded, the data wouldn't seem so outrageous. The so-called art of data manipulation is to tweak figures within areas you control, so no one can really argue.
However, the July data was revised from a negative 23,000 to a positive 21,000, completely overturning last month's data. This means the previous premise that rate hikes couldn't happen due to poor employment in June and July has been overturned.
This kind of data basically follows the script I previously expected for managing expectations, meaning yesterday's hints from Waller were actually coordinated with Wash.
Moreover, due to the renewed rise in rate hike expectations, gold and U.S. stocks both fell, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield first rose then fell.
According to the previous script, after next week's CPI release, the probability of a September rate hike will continue to rebound above 70%, ultimately leading to a high-probability meeting and a rate hike, which the market will accept more smoothly.
The latest nonfarm payroll data has just been released, showing 162,000 jobs added, surprisingly nearly three times the expectation, and the combined revisions for June and July nonfarm employment additions were increased by 55,000. U.S. macroeconomic data is becoming increasingly absurd.
Such strong employment data has led to a drop in rate hike expectations, so the suspense over whether there will be a rate hike in September now entirely depends on next week's CPI data #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
As the quote says, after Waller's speech yesterday, next week's CPI data is the key factor in deciding whether the FOMC will raise rates on 9/16, but tonight's major nonfarm payroll data cannot be overlooked either, as the anxious market continues to seek confirmation through macro data.
Currently, the market's expected unemployment rate is 4.1%, and the expected nonfarm payroll increase is 56,000.
If the final announced figure shows a significantly higher increase in employment than expected and a lower unemployment rate than expected, the probability of a rate hike will likely rebound to around 70%.
If the increase in employment is slightly higher than expected and the unemployment rate meets expectations, the probability of a rate hike may slightly rebound to 60%.
If the increase in employment is lower than expected and the unemployment rate is higher than expected, the probability of a rate hike will further decline.
If the nonfarm payrolls continue the previous trend of significant downward revisions, gold and U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, but U.S. stocks and BTC may initially rise and then fall, pricing in recession risks.
Assuming Waller is actually cooperating in managing expectations, a reasonable sequence might be:
Waller first raises the rate hike probability to 60%–70%
↓
Waller then lowers it back to about 50% before the blackout period to eliminate one-sided crowding
↓
Strong nonfarm payroll performance restores the probability to about 60%
↓
Hotter PPI and CPI push the probability to 75%–90%
↓
A 25 basis point rate hike on September 16, which does not constitute a true surprise attack
So whether this Fed performance is scripted or not depends on tonight's major nonfarm payroll data. After the data is released, closely watch the changes in CME rate hike probability.
Let's continue to dig deeper into the impact of Waller's speech this time
Let's continue to dig deeper into the impact of Waller's recent speech.
First, this was the last effective statement before the FOMC meeting's silence period, which pushed down the high probability of a rate hike previously brought by Wash's speech to a stance of no hike unless CPI is very hot. This means the risk market decline caused by the increased probability of a rate hike last week has been recovered.
What we cannot determine now is whether Waller's speech was his personal opinion or a deliberate signal from the committee.
Therefore, we cannot conclude if this was intentionally dovish to disrupt the market's consensus expectations on rate hikes for the sake of managing expectations, or if it was a temporary cooldown because the rate hike probability had risen too quickly before.
The upcoming major nonfarm payroll data to be released on Friday will further point the market out of the fog, but the main event remains the CPI on September 11.
If the major nonfarm data continues the previous trend of labor market cooling, it will provide a good excuse for no rate hike in September. However, if the data reveals a high hourly wage signal, it will give the Fed a reason to hike rates to suppress inflation.
Back to the current 50-50 CME rate hike probability, it's really hard to say whether it's Captain America taking over or Wang Dun's 50-50 talisman working (just kidding, strike that 🤣).
The market generally believes the Fed will act in line with market expectations when the probability of a rate hike or cut reaches 70-90%, but in fact, there have been many exceptions and extreme swings near decision windows in recent years.
For example, in December 2025, Powell said at the end of October that a December rate cut was "far from certain," combined with the government shutdown and lack of data at the time, and a series of regional Fed presidents turning hawkish, the December rate cut...
Many stocks in the US market opened strong, $SPCX 148+ is a key point, and it might even be worth shorting a bit because the last rebound didn't surpass 150. This time it probably won't break through in one go either. Even if it does, a pullback will likely return to this level.
The main driver behind this SPCX rise seems to be the Nasdaq index adjustment rush, combined with the recent positive news from Waller and the upcoming Starship 14 launch.
Here are some key dates for SPCX:
September 9: Next batch unlock
September 11: Nasdaq announces new weighted index after market close
September 15: Starship 14 launch
September 18: Passive funds complete portfolio adjustments during closing auction
After September 21: All positive catalysts will have been realized
Next, we need to watch if 150 is broken through. Only if it holds above this level can we look towards the 155-160 range
The pre-market today is very strong, with gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all rising. It seems to be because of Waller's recent statement.
Waller said whether to support a rate hike in September will depend on the August CPI data released next Friday.
This effectively changes Waller's baseline at the Jackson Hole meeting from "hike rates unless the data is good enough" to "no hike unless the data is hot enough." Following his speech, the CME probability of a September rate hike dropped by ten percentage points to 50.4%.
According to the logic that gold prices rise when the rate hike probability falls and fall when it rises, the recent gold price surge is pricing in this 10% drop in the rate hike probability.
In other words, the previous price of 4280 might be the lowest point of this pullback. If tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls, next week's CPI, or even the 9.16 FOMC meeting bring prices close to this level again, be ready to jump back in.
Moreover, after gold's recent rise, the yields on US Treasuries for 2, 10, and 30 years all showed a significant decline. If yields rebound, today's sharp jump might still be retraced $XAUT
TraderS | 缺德道人
Just took profit and gold suddenly jumped sharply, really a slap in the face, but there's nothing I can do, sometimes you just can't stay calm.
But if it continues to rise now, the next resistance is around 4630, which means the rebound is too fast, indeed beyond my expectations.
Anyway, let's wait for the big Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow night.