Orbit Post Sitemap
#CLARITYActPathForward
CLARITY failed 49-50, but the more interesting story is what happens without it 👀
Seven Democratic negotiators called the vote a setback, not an endpoint, while the SEC and CFTC say rulemaking will continue under existing authority.
Congress may have stalled, but regulation hasn't.
The longer CLARITY waits, the more crypto's US rulebook could be shaped by agencies first and lawmakers later.$ETH just pulled up, then immediately corrected so sharply, what's the point of the rally?
Looking at the 15-minute chart, after this surge to 2479.99, it dropped with four consecutive bearish candles, and the gain from that big bullish candle was almost half given back.
Current price is around 2445, with EMA5 and EMA10 both broken down, short-term moving averages have started to turn down.
On MACD, the red bars just appeared but are shrinking, DIFF and DEA are still above zero line, but the fast line clearly shows signs of turning down.
The BOLL middle band at 2444 is supporting right below, the upper band at 2466 is short-term resistance, price is hovering near the middle band, looks quite precarious.
But fortunately, it still rose 2.23% in 24 hours, volume hasn't completely collapsed, with 3.52 million ETH traded indicating selling pressure is being absorbed.
The key is the SAR indicator at 2439 hasn't been broken yet; if this level holds, the 15-minute timeframe could form a double bottom or consolidate sideways.
If it breaks through 2439 directly, then this rally really turns out to be a bull trap.
In short, the immediate drop after the rally means either the main force is shaking out weak holders or short-term profit takers are exiting.
At this position, it's neither up nor down; chasing longs risks catching a knife, shorting risks a rebound, better to wait for this 15-minute candle to close and see if 2440 can hold before deciding.
$BTC $ZEC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ 369 million USD, 24 hours, over 80,000 people.
First question: Is this a lot?
Two years ago, we even saw 1 billion in a single day.
Second question: So who got hit harder this time?
Short positions 227 million, long positions 143 million, more shorts were liquidated.
Final question: What does this mean?
It means this wave is pushing up, not crashing down.
As an experienced trader, I've been hit on both longs and shorts.
My first reaction to this data isn’t excitement, it’s—someone else got taught a lesson by leverage again.
The largest single liquidation was 18.38 million, one position, $BTC on Hyperliquid.
The harsh truth is: it’s not the market that liquidates you, it’s your position size.
#OpenAI拟IPO前融资，估值目标达1.2万亿美元 $BTC US crypto legislation is showing divergence. The House Ways and Means Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, and the Financial Services Committee is advancing the American Reserve Modernization Act, which aims to enshrine strategic Bitcoin reserves into federal law, with government-held BTC to be retained in principle for at least 20 years. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The CLARITY market structure bill is stalled, but tax and strategic reserve-specific legislation is moving forward. US crypto policy is forming a multi-track advancing pattern.
My judgment is that the strategic reserve bill is a long-term positive but does not constitute buying pressure in the short term. Government BTC locked for 20 years reduces selling pressure expectations but does not authorize new purchases, so its symbolic significance outweighs actual demand. The tax bill closes tax loopholes and clarifies the compliance framework, which is beneficial for the industry's long-term health.
Enter Ethereum at the 2425 support level, exit above 2460. Short-term long positions to capture rebounds without greed. The logic is that after the rate hike is implemented, market sentiment recovers, Ethereum rebounds following Bitcoin, buy at support, and exit when the target is reached.
Currently out of position. The Fed rate hike is in place, and the dot plot shows more hikes before year-end, possibly restarting the tightening cycle. Risk assets are under pressure, so no rush to go long before the direction is clear. Wait for a proper pullback to reassess.
The above analysis is time-sensitive #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Tonight, the overall US stock market is warm, with the Nasdaq up 1.13% and TQQQ up 3.25%.
But crypto stocks are not warming up together. Among mining companies, Hut8 (Bitcoin mining company) is up 6.88%, CleanSpark (Bitcoin mining company) up 5.63%, Riot Platforms (Bitcoin mining company) up 4.32%; on the other hand, Coinbase (US crypto exchange) is down 1.62%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) down 0.20%.
If it were just the overall market risk appetite driving this, Coinbase shouldn't close down; if it were just BTC beta, MicroStrategy shouldn't be flat.
I interpret this as the market paying a premium for mining companies' computing power, but not for trading flow. If Coinbase surges tomorrow with volume to catch up, it means it's just a timing difference; if it continues to close down while mining companies keep rising, then this round of mining companies is not following BTC and should be viewed separately.#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ The Federal Reserve just implemented a 25 basis point rate hike, and here's the interesting part: long-term U.S. Treasury yields refuse to back down. After briefly touching 4.95% on the 10-year, it quickly climbed back near 5%, and even the 30-year yield firmly stands above 5%.
Many attribute this rise simply to the Fed's rate hike, but Wash's interpretation offers a new perspective: economic resilience, AI competing for capital, and geopolitical conflicts collectively push long-term rates higher—not a lack of market confidence in the Fed's inflation control. However, this explanation cleverly sidesteps the thorny issue of the massive U.S. debt deficit.
If short-term rates stabilize and the 10- and 30-year Treasuries hold above 5%, the valuation pressure on high-risk assets will persist, making it difficult for us to see a major bull market in $BTC. $BTC $CRCLB Conclusion first: short-term bias is bullish, but this is a passive follow-up rally driven by the overall market sentiment recovery, not an independently strong trend. Chasing highs has low cost-effectiveness; a pullback to the moving average is the entry point.
The Fear and Greed Index is 50, a neutral range, indicating the market is neither under panic selling pressure nor overheated chasing. BTC's oscillation direction directly determines CRCLB's rhythm. Currently, CRCLB is priced at 83.33, down 2.08% in 24h, with a trading volume of 40.4M USDT, representing a volume contraction pullback rather than a volume-driven sell-off. Technically, MA5=83.434 still stands above MA20=82.1375, the bullish moving average alignment remains intact; MACD histogram +0.3771 maintains bullishness, RSI=50.8 is neutral to slightly weak, indicating this correction has fully digested the overbought condition, actually providing bulls a second chance to enter. Bollinger Bands [79.6497, 84.6253] lower band serves as strong support reference for this pullback.
In sector rotation, ADA is up 3.94% and HBAR up 1.19% in 24h, both outperforming CRCLB, showing capital clearly favors the public chain catch-up rally direction; as a lagging stock, CRCLB has catch-up linkage expectations if BTC stabilizes.$AIXBT $$AIXBT Someone bought near 0.0195. Purely looking at the chart, the volume has shrunk to a somewhat boring level, then suddenly some funds pushed it up. I like to watch these kinds of rallies with no news the most; often it's the manipulative whales shaking out and accumulating chips, with technicals moving first and sentiment lagging behind. Whether it can run a stretch is uncertain, start with a small position, admit a mistake if it breaks the previous low, don't get carried away. Are you in the same boat? Or do you think this is a fake move? Share your thoughts in the comments.
👇👇👇$BTC has another $4 billion level U.S. Treasury buyback coming today.
The U.S. Treasury plans to repurchase about $4 billion of its own issued government bonds to improve liquidity in certain securities and enhance cash management efficiency. Using cash to buy back old debt changes the short-term distribution of funds, but this is not Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion and should not be equated with QE.
Many people immediately associate "buyback" with monetary easing, but the real issue is that Treasury buybacks and Federal Reserve QE are completely different. The former is cash management using its own money, not creating money out of thin air; the latter is central bank balance sheet expansion, which is fundamentally different. For BTC, a single $4 billion transaction is unlikely to directly drive the market; what really matters is whether it can resonate with TGA declines, improved financial conditions, and falling Treasury yields.
$4 billion is not QE, but the marginal change in short-term liquidity is worth watching. The real big opportunity will come when Treasury cash, Treasury yields, and the dollar all give signals together.
The 2023 buyback wave was also not large in single transactions, but over several weeks combined with falling yields, liquidity gradually eased, and risk assets caught a breather. Single transactions don’t mean much; sustainability is key.
Don’t mistake Treasury buybacks for QE. Single impacts are limited; sustained cash release and cooling yields are the real signals of liquidity improvement.
Don’t get excited over one buyback; watch for sustainability. See if TGA, Treasury yields, and the dollar weaken simultaneously. When all three resonate, the environment for BTC and ETH will truly improve. For now, observation is the priority.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $ETH $ZEC rose, but the shorts got liquidated first
When $ZEC moved up, one address closed its long position and reversed to short.
The short position was just fully bought back and closed by the system.
How this number is calculated:
He shorted at the 767.2 price level, with a position size of about one million USD.
As the price pushed up, losses ate up the margin, and the system bought back for him. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold — I finally understand what the three of them are playing at.
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached 0.56, a nine-year high.
This means: the market no longer treats Bitcoin as a “tech stock” but is starting to buy it as “digital gold.” Although Ethereum hasn’t caught up with this wave of risk-off narrative, when Bitcoin moves, there are calls for Ethereum’s catch-up rally.
The situation with gold is simpler — the 5-day average discussion volume of PAXG has doubled, and the forums are full of posts about “on-chain gold.” But honestly, PAXG’s price hasn’t risen as fast as the discussion heat; sentiment is ahead of price.
My view: Bitcoin is benefiting from the narrative dividend of “goldification,” Ethereum is still waiting for its next independent story, and gold is the source of this round of risk-off sentiment. These three are now tied together by one thread — fiat currency credit anxiety.
Are you currently hoarding Bitcoin, buying Ethereum on dips, or purchasing PAXG? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $PAXG #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Under the dazzling BTCFi hype of $CORE, is the explosive trading volume and community discussion of CORE truly driven by real capital inflow, or is it a prosperity created by marketing?
The market heat is maintained by two methods. The project team continuously pushes the BTCFi narrative, and the community massively reposts to create momentum; in exchange transaction data, whales engage in wash trading to create the visual effect of capital inflow.
The dual staking is the core incentive mechanism, attracting users to lock BTC and CORE with high yields, locking liquidity and temporarily suppressing selling pressure. However, staking rewards come from continuously issued tokens, and the returns are not cash flow generated by ecosystem business, heavily relying on continuous new participants entering.
Market participants can be divided into three categories: early users who mined at low cost and cash out on rebounds; holders attracted by the BTCFi narrative who are optimistic about the project long-term; and speculative traders betting on short-term market movements.
There is a core contradiction here: the ecosystem's landing speed is slow, and business income hardly covers the continuously issued tokens. Once new capital inflow slows and the staking unlock wave arrives, selling pressure will be a huge test.
Some are optimistic about the potential of the BTCFi sector, while others are cautious about the long-term pressure caused by token releases.
Marketing can create short-term heat, but on-chain data is the ultimate answer.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. Virtual currencies are highly volatile and carry high risk. $ZEC 资金费率转负，空军还有机会吗？
ZEC资金费率转负，市场情绪瞬间紧绷。巨鲸数据看，大户多头仓位明显领先，空头持续承压，多数空军已陷入亏损。负费率意味着空头需向多头支付费用，持仓成本不断抬升，想“熬出头”并不轻松。
但这不代表暴跌必然到来。负费率更多反映空头拥挤与博弈加剧。若多头继续掌控节奏，空头可能被迫平仓，形成反向挤压；若价格迟迟不跌，空军信心会被进一步消耗。反过来，一旦多头集中止盈，也可能引发快速回落。
关键看三点：价格能否跌破核心支撑、资金费率能否回正、巨鲸多头是否开始减仓。在此之前，空头仍处被动，多头也需防高位踩踏。
市场有风险，切勿重仓博弈。Just saw it, the SEC really took action tonight.
Only two days after CLARITY Senate died, Atkins directly threw out the "innovation exemption" — tokenized US stock trading venues don't need to register as exchanges for 5 years, effective immediately. It must be real stock rights; synthetic derivatives are excluded. The issuer can still veto with one vote within 30 days.
When legislation can't move forward, the administration goes hard; the Wall Street tokenization crowd probably won't sleep tonight.Term Structure Radar
$BTC annualized basis decreases with maturity: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +10.64% / +5.83% / +5.31% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$173.4.
$ETH annualized basis decreases with maturity: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +8.91% / +4.72% / +4.25% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$4.65.
$SOL annualized pricing at the three maturities is not monotonically arranged: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +6.08% / +1.62% / +1.92% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$0.13. The mid-term maturity breaks the monotonic pattern, and the difference between near and far terms is insufficient to describe the entire curve.
BTC, ETH: near-term annualized basis is higher than far-term, with higher annualized pricing concentrated near term.
BTC, ETH, SOL: all three maturities are in contango. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
The boss has something to say
There is a divergence in US crypto legislation. The House Fundraising Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, and the Financial Services Committee is advancing the American Reserve Modernization Act, which aims to enshrine strategic Bitcoin reserves into federal law, with government-held BTC to be retained for at least 20 years in principle.
The CLARITY Market Structure Act is stalled, but tax and strategic reserve-specific legislation is moving forward. US crypto policy is forming a multi-track advancing pattern.
My judgment is that the strategic reserve act is a long-term positive but does not constitute buying pressure in the short term. The government locking BTC for 20 years reduces selling pressure expectations but does not authorize new purchases, so its symbolic significance outweighs actual demand. The tax act closes tax loopholes, clarifies the compliance framework, and is beneficial for the industry's long-term health.
Enter long positions at Ethereum 2425 support, exit above 2460. Short-term long trades to capture rebounds without greed. The logic is that after interest rate hikes settle, market sentiment recovers, Ethereum follows Bitcoin's rebound, buy at support, and exit when the target is reached. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Currently holding no positions. The Fed's rate hikes have settled, but the dot plot shows more hikes before year-end, possibly restarting the tightening cycle. Risk assets are under pressure; do not rush to go long before the direction is clear. Wait for a proper pullback to reassess.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on trades. Good luck.BTC and ETH both saw increased volume, but the closing push was still less than 1%
A new round of trading volume has picked up after the Federal Reserve's decision, but prices haven't caught up yet. The 1H candle from 20:00 to 21:00 has closed, with BTC spot turnover at 39,172,800 USDT, 3.37 times the previous hour, closing up only 0.32%; ETH turnover was 39,915,800 USDT, 4.72 times larger, closing up 0.72%. During the session, they respectively touched 77,167.3 and 2,480, but both closed back below their highs.
My judgment is cautious: funds are re-entering, and selling pressure above is being digested. At this stage, it looks more like high turnover without an effective breakout yet. If BTC closes the next 1H candle above 77,167.3 and ETH above 2,480, maintaining turnover close to this hour's volume, then turnover might turn into a trend; if they fall back below 76,402.1 and 2,439.33 respectively, the volume increase without price rise will be confirmed.
Between turnover returning and the close failing to hold the high, which would you consider the primary condition for revising your judgment?
#BTC #ETHThe pace of US crypto regulation these days is quite interesting.
After the CLARITY Act got stuck in the Senate, the House of Representatives has actually seen new progress.
On one side is the "Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act," which passed the House Ways and Means Committee 38-5. It focuses on rules regarding crypto transaction taxes, mining, staking, and broker reporting.
On the other side, the "American Reserve Modernization Act" is advancing in the Financial Services Committee with a 28-21 vote, centering on strategic Bitcoin reserves and the government's long-term holding arrangements of BTC.
So the current situation is not a "complete halt of crypto legislation," but rather a divergence in the progress of bills in different directions.
However, it’s important to distinguish in trading:
Bill progress ≠ BTC price surge immediately.
Regulation is a slow-moving variable; what truly impacts short-term volatility are interest rates, liquidity, and market sentiment. Especially since the Fed just completed a rate hike, macro pressures still need attention.
Moving forward, I’m more focused on whether BTC can firmly reclaim key levels before judging if capital will flow back in.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The SEC implemented the "Innovation Exemption" this morning: Tokenized Securities Venues (TSV) can receive a conditional exemption for up to about 5 years, allowing them to list and trade tokenized securities using AMM/liquidity pools without first registering as an "exchange." Chair Atkins said this is an important step in advancing the US stock capital market onto the blockchain.
The boundaries are strictly defined: only tokens representing real equity (dividend rights, voting rights) are recognized; synthetic/derivative securities tokens are excluded—many offshore products are directly disqualified. Third parties wanting to tokenize someone else's stock must notify the issuer about 30 days in advance, and the issuer can veto with a single statement. Platforms only need to notify in advance to start operations, without relying on the SEC to name each one individually.
The timing is also right: the CLARITY Senate procedural vote just got blocked, and Atkins declared on Wednesday to "act decisively within statutory authority," with the exemption implemented the next day. This is an administrative path, not codified law; formal rules will still be needed later to firmly establish the framework. The workaround can run first, but long-term certainty still depends on #CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ $BTC $ETH and legislation.#Will long-term US Treasury yields at 5% become the new normal?
When everyone sees BTC surge, they immediately shout that the bull market has restarted. Here’s a cold splash of water: this is just an emotional rebound; the biggest constraint—the long-term US Treasury—has not yet been loosened.
BTC surged to 77167 then quickly fell back, currently at 76656, with resistance at 77013 and support at 75923.
El Salvador continues to increase BTC holdings, and the US crypto bill is advancing, providing narrative for the market. Capital is making a rebound driven by the expectation gap as interest rate hikes settle.
But after the surge, volume can’t keep up, and the bulls clearly lack momentum.
Focus on US Treasuries: with rate hikes settled, the 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5%, and the 30-year stays above 5%.
High long-term yields mean capital prefers risk-free US Treasuries, pushing down the valuation ceiling for high-risk assets. In this environment, any positive news can only bring short-term pulses, making sustained major rallies difficult.
Narrative positives are slow variables; US Treasury yields are the fast variables that determine the overall market.
If the 77000 level doesn’t break out with volume, short-term profit-taking is likely, leading to a period of consolidation and pullback.
Trading strategy: do not chase highs. The rebound is a game of speculation with a generally unfavorable risk-reward ratio. Going forward, focus on the 10-year Treasury; only if long-term yields continue to decline does this rebound have a chance to upgrade into a trending market, otherwise it will remain range-bound $BTC BTC is still around 76,626, up about 1.1% in 24 hours, with the market remaining lukewarm.
Switching to the 1-hour chart, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are all flat around 76,500, with the price slowly creeping up along these lines. The Bollinger Bands continue to contract, with the upper band at 76,882 and the lower band at 75,754, the band width compressed to the extreme. This kind of extreme low-volume sideways movement means both bulls and bears are holding back, and the direction will be chosen soon.
However, the hottest action today is not BTC but ZEC. The Zcash community voted 98.9% to keep the Bitcoin-style halving, and ZEC once surged directly to $794, with a daily increase of over 20%, reaching the highest point since February 2022. The privacy sector is indeed strong this round. This shows that funds haven't left the market; they are just not lingering in BTC but looking for assets with independent narratives and definite positive catalysts.
As for BTC, after the interest rate hike has been fully priced in, the short-term market is oscillating and recovering around 76,000. The resistance above is at 76,800; only a breakout there can lead to a retest of 78,000. The support below is at 75,700; if broken, look for 75,000.
The strategy is simple: hold spot positions and avoid leverage. In a choppy market, chasing highs or selling lows is the biggest taboo; wait for a clear direction. You can watch ZEC this round but don't chase the high; after a 20% rise, buying in risks catching the top. Keep monitoring tonight and we’ll discuss if there are any movements.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $ZEC SHORT UPDATE 📉
Entry: ~$1,165
Stop: ~$1,205
Risk: High
The last few trades have been stopped out, and this one is under pressure too.
I expected the previous high to hold as resistance, but price proved otherwise. BTC and ETH also aren’t confirming the bearish setup I was expecting.
At this point, protecting capital matters more than forcing another trade.
One more failed setup and I’m stepping back to reassess.
$$ZEC #200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 1
I'm back. In Phase 1, I went from 200 to 2335, then crashed from 680 down to 7.27 and got liquidated. After cooling off for a few days, Phase 2 officially starts today.
First, let me clearly explain why I got liquidated in Phase 1, no excuses: **I was blindly confident.** I thought no matter how much altcoins pumped, doubling or tripling was the limit, but it actually surged 130%, and a big bullish candle broke through my position. I never got the direction wrong — looking back today, those two coins had already dropped over 20% from their highs — but the market didn’t give me enough time to survive until then.
However, I realized one thing: **Having little capital is not an excuse for failure.** Which big player didn’t start with small funds? First, use small money to train your mindset, until you can handle profits and losses, then you’re qualified to talk about big positions. This fall was the tuition I had to pay.
For Phase 2, my new strategy is fully public:
1. Only short altcoins that have risen more than 40% that day; ignore those under 40%
2. Position size only 20% of total funds
3. The remaining 80% goes entirely into margin to extend the liquidation line
4. Leverage 2x
Clear rules for closing positions:
- If the next day the price drops 10% and there’s profit, close the position to take profit
- If no profit the next day, hold on until profitable
- If profit appears on the third day and the price also drops 10% that day, close the position as well
Today’s opening battle: $ONE topped the gain list with a 70% rise, so I entered a short position.
Honestly — I broke my own rule on this trade and **used 10x leverage directly**. For this opening battle, I want to start strong. I’m putting this out there clearly: **If this trade blows up today, I’ll top up 200 tomorrow and start over; if not, this trade marks the real start of Phase 2.** Win or lose, I’m transparent, fully live, no pretending.
In Phase 1, some were waiting to see me fail. To the commenter who said "If you succeed, I’ll eat shit," I remember you. Phase 2, here I come.
Wish me luck. And I wish you all great success in the crypto world. Let’s take Phase 2 slow and steady to the end 🤝
I only short altcoins, always use stop loss, manage position size, and disclose all holding funds. For reference only, not investment advice. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ I believe the reason zec has been reborn is actually almost unrelated to btc, privacy, or quantum.
These are indeed important features driving the store of value (SoV) narrative, but I think the bigger reason is that the market has realized that general-purpose L1 tokens will not be valued based on some "network value" or "Metcalfe's law" framework.
Two reasonable valuation frameworks are:
1) Cash flow
2) Store of value (SoV)
eth and sol are extremely overvalued relative to any cash flow, and this won't change unless they really achieve some crazy scale and usage. eth and sol are also hard to accept as pure stores of value, especially at their respective market cap levels.
Meanwhile, zec has a fixed supply, truly innovative privacy features, no systemic DeFi risk, and a smaller market cap. All this combined offers the remaining crypto participants a fairly attractive opportunity for real 10-20x growth with considerable scale. If the remaining participants all support zec as the "real" alternative store of value to btc, then early remaining participants will have a lot of money to make.
Yes, you could say this is a bit like a Ponzi scheme, but all stores of value are like that; they all require some kind of collective belief system.
zec's features do make it an attractive store of value, but I don't think it would be sought after if the L1 theory hadn't collapsed. The collapse of the L1 theory led to zec's pursuit, which has nothing to do with Bitcoin. $ZEC Okay, this version below has more of a Chinese crypto trader style, with a faster pace and more impact:
🚨 $CORE: It's not weakness, the selling pressure hasn't ended yet
🚨 $CORE: Don't rush to mistake the rebound for a reversal!
$CORE right now feels to me not like "quiet accumulation," but that selling pressure is still being released.
📉 It has retraced about 99.5% from the 2023 all-time high, and dropped nearly 8% in the past 7 days.
The most notable thing is: there hasn't been any shocking crash this time, but a continuous slow decline with repeated bottom testing. On top of that, validator-related vulnerabilities, emergency forks, and withdrawal impacts have piled up, naturally weighing on market confidence.
What's more troublesome is that monthly continuous unlocks still exist. The price has dropped this much, yet supply-side pressure hasn't completely disappeared; this is the biggest risk $CORE currently needs to watch out for.
🔥 So now, don't just focus on "has it dropped enough to buy the dip."
The real questions are:
When will buying return? When will the structure change?
Before these two signals appear, $CORE still needs time to re-prove market consensus.
#CORE #Crypto #BTC #Altcoins #FedRateHike #CryptoTax The crypto space has been interesting these past couple of days. One path got blocked, but two others opened up.
Just a few days after the CLARITY Market Structure Act was stalled in the Senate vote, the House suddenly accelerated. The Fundraising Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act with 38 votes in favor and 5 against, setting clear tax rules for crypto income, asset transfers, mining staking, and broker reporting. On the same day, the Financial Services Committee advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act with 28 votes in favor and 21 against, planning to enshrine a strategic Bitcoin reserve into federal law, requiring the government to hold BTC for at least 20 years and study budget-neutral ways to increase holdings.
These two bills are more substantial than CLARITY. Once tax rules are established, the long-standing ambiguity troubling US holders regarding reporting will have a standard answer. The strategic reserve bill is even more impactful; if passed, it would officially include Bitcoin in the national reserve asset framework, placing it on the same institutional level as gold. This is not just rhetoric, but a confirmation at the institutional level.
In terms of action, don’t treat legislative progress as a short-term catalyst. Regulation is a slow variable; interest rates are the fast variable. Wait for sentiment to settle and see if the market can stabilize at key support before deciding whether to enter.
What do you think, will the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill ultimately pass? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Nine million euros invested in a German real estate analysis company; the money hasn't entered the blockchain, but pricing power is shifting toward the data side.
Market makers look at cases like this and ask only one question: whoever controls granular data on land and real estate writes the script for the funds in advance. Amberra leading the investment and NRW.BANK following indicates that European public capital is willing to shift the valuation anchor from transaction matching to the analysis layer. There is still no direct evidence that this step will transmit to on-chain assets. A more likely path is that the due diligence cost of on-chain real assets is lowered by such platforms, narrowing the information asymmetry of counterparties in market making quotes.
Watch whether the due diligence disclosure cycle for European RWA projects shortens. If there is no change within half a year, this chain will remain confined within traditional finance.
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？
#贝森特听证释放多重信号 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 $ZEC S&P Signs Agreement to Acquire OpenZeppelin: $37 Trillion Library Still Intact, Closing Not Yet Complete
S&P Global officially announced today: signed an agreement to acquire OpenZeppelin.
OZ has been operating since 2015, with its own Contracts library endorsing approximately $37 trillion in on-chain value flow, has completed over 900 security services, and identified more than 10,000 vulnerabilities in advance. After the acquisition, it will remain an independent business unit, with CEO Demian Brener staying on and reporting to S&P Ratings President Yann Le Pallec; they explicitly stated that the open-source library will continue to be free and permanently open source.
The deal is still pending: the amount was not disclosed, and closing conditions must still be met. The agreement ≠ the deal is fully completed. The open-source commitment in the press release also does not necessarily mean zero changes in client contracts or reporting lines going forward—if you want to keep an eye on it, wait until the closing is finalized to take another look.$PONS JUST TAUGHT ME A LESSON IN PATIENCE. Watched it rip from 0.5482 to a 0.6684 high, then fade back toward 0.6531 despite holding a +13.68% day.
Wicks like that separate patient traders from impulsive ones. Chasing the top would've hurt. Are you buying this dip or standing aside? Here are the insights I recorded from yesterday's operations. This is what I was thinking at the time:
Hold on until the eve of the interest rate decision announcement, then decide whether to close the short position. Ideally, close it just before that moment.
(I actually did this yesterday, closing the short position two minutes before the rate announcement, making a small profit of 20,000)
Why do this?
1. Betting that if the bulls can't withstand the pressure and collapse early, the price will drop ahead of time. Then I get to take a big profit.
2. If it's already very close to the announcement and the bulls still don't give up their chips, it means the negative impact of the rate hike has already been fully digested, and most of the downward momentum from the past few days' decline has been absorbed. Then closing the position early is also to prevent a sudden price surge.
What do you think?
The reason for holding until the last moment is to bet on whether the bulls will collapse early.
If they don't collapse, then we exit.#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Recently, the community has been talking a lot about these two US crypto bills. I feel this is really worth pondering. The pressure of interest rate hikes is still looming, and now with new policies emerging, the industry's direction seems to be shifting.
The ARMA Bitcoin Reserve Act has passed the committee; seized BTC will be allocated to the national reserve, locked for at least 20 years, and cannot be casually sold off. In the long run, this reduces the risk of official dumping, but don't expect a direct surge—positive effects are likely priced in early, with a high chance of a peak followed by a pullback.
On the other hand, new tax regulations have also advanced, closing the loophole for deducting crypto losses. Small on-chain fees can be exempt from tax reporting, but high-frequency large transfers won't enjoy this benefit.
However, don't get overly excited—this is only committee approval, and there's still a long way before it becomes law. If the bill is ultimately enacted, US crypto will no longer be governed by temporary verbal rules but will become formal law, paving the way for institutional funds to enter. $BTC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Saudi Arabia has Oman come out to deliver a message, wanting to negotiate a two-week ceasefire with the Houthis—do you think the market moves are driven by technicals? No, it's all about the news hitting the market.
Everyone is tired of the mess in the Middle East by now; Saudi Arabia is annoyed, the Houthis don't want to keep burning money fighting every day, so "someone stepping down" is not surprising. What really made the market jump was the loosening of the Strait of Hormuz tension—recently the market feared incidents in the shipping lane every day, oil prices were like a firecracker with a fuse, ready to explode at any spark. Now that the words "talks are happening" came out, panic sellers withdrew first, bulls took advantage of the situation to exit gracefully, and prices shot up directly.
But let's not get carried away: it's only "talks happening" now, not "signed." Official announcements might come before the weekend, but in between there could be all kinds of shocks—talks breaking down, leaks, reversals, localized fighting again, all possible. That's how news-driven markets are, heaven in the morning and hell in the afternoon.
So don't chase the bullish candles:
- If you hold short positions, don't stubbornly hold through the news; look to reduce on rebounds or slip out on pullbacks, don't wait for "another drop back";
- If you want to short, don't go naked now; wait for the rebound to finish, or for fake breakouts before official announcements or after talks break down;
- Set stop losses, reduce your position size, don't get caught on the "news reversal" edge this week.
In short: the emotional tide receding ≠ risk disappearing. Until the ceasefire is finalized, it's all just on paper, not real peace. $BTC $ETH 美联储刚加息25bp，BTC却没怎么波动，之前提前跌的那波应该算是对这消息的消化了。 至于 VLongGame—— 前几天坐了一趟过山车，现在又改坐扶梯了。 速度不快，但方向暂时没走错。 今日实盘｜Day 23 收益率：+1.54% 带单资产：10,144.92 USDT 盈利20天 / 亏损3天 胜率：86.96% 盈亏比：1.90 : 1 比收益创新高更让我在意的是： 盈亏比从那次回撤后的0.41:1，慢慢修到了1.90:1。再过7天，交第一份完整的30天实盘成绩单。#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
[100x Challenge: Day 53 — Live Trading Record]
It's absolutely right, everything turned green today.
Last night I bet on the dovish rate hike expectation, and now half of it has come true. Next, let's see how the recovery path of the US stock market develops.
Actually, Waller's speech was hawkish, but why did the US stock market and gold still rally today?
I think the market understood Waller's remarks as a forced rate hike, so the market returned to focusing on oil price fluctuations to determine the extent of the recovery.
If oil continues to fall tomorrow, US stocks keep recovering, and gold keeps rallying, it at least proves that the market is further betting on the logic that oil will decide whether there will be another rate hike. At the same time, oil is more concretely and firmly linked to inflation.
I will closely monitor oil prices going forward.
Oil price rise = pressure for a second rate hike
Oil price drop = easing inflation $DOGE in 24 hours +2.58% versus BTC +1.13% — difference +1.45 p.p.
With a position of 83% within the daily range, the question is simple: is this real relative strength or is the movement already fading? AI regulation will most likely ultimately focus on computing power thresholds, model evaluation, and licensing
Tech giants have lawyers, computing power, and policy teams, and can even participate in defining what safety means
Newcomers to the space tend to only focus on coin prices, but they should actually pay more attention to this line
Anthropic and OpenAI call for slowing down frontier development, while Jensen Huang says safety is an engineering issue and no new laws are needed
Both sides have different positions, but both understand that rules will come
Once compliance costs rise, open source teams and small companies are often the first to be blocked
Giants, on the other hand, gain an additional moat
What I’m paying attention to now is: in subsequent regulatory drafts, at what specific scale the computing power threshold will be set
That will be the watershed
#OpenAI拟IPO前融资，估值目标达1.2万亿美元
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 #AnthropicIPO争议延续
$ZEC Brothers, Washington's moves these past two days are really something.
The Senate just killed the CLARITY Market Structure Act, 49 to 50, not even a simple majority. Polymarket's probability of passage dropped sharply from 82% at the start of the year to 14%. Senator Lummis's post-match words hit hard — "Miss this Congress, the next window might not come until 2030." The entire crypto community is cursing.
But guess what? One road is blocked, but two others have suddenly opened up.
---
News: Two fires have been lit
First fire — the tax bill.
Less than 24 hours after the Senate vote failed, the House Ways and Means Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act with a crushing 38 to 5 vote. Note this vote count, 38 to 5, not along party lines, both parties voted yes. What does this mean? It means that the normalization of crypto taxation is already a consensus in Washington, not a partisan issue.
Key points of the bill: on-chain transactions under $10 are no longer taxable events, so buying a cup of coffee won't trigger taxes; wash sale rules officially extend to digital assets; qualifying USD stablecoins get exemptions. The long-standing reporting ambiguity troubling US holders finally has a standard answer. I really like what Committee Chair Smith said: "Without a de minimis threshold, buying a cup of coffee triggers an absurd compliance maze."
Second fire — the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act.
On the same day, the Financial Services Committee advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act 28 to 21, aiming to write the strategic Bitcoin reserve into federal law. The government's BTC must be locked for at least 20 years, cannot be sold, exchanged, or auctioned. This is not just rhetoric; it's a systemic confirmation — Bitcoin is officially moving into the framework of national reserve assets, standing on the same institutional level as gold.
But honestly, all 28 votes in favor came from Republicans, and all 21 against from Democrats, making it heavily partisan. Prediction platforms give it only about a 6% chance of passing.
---
Market: Don't treat legislative progress as a short-term catalyst
Back to the market. $BTC is hovering around $76,000 to $77,000, with a 24-hour gain of about 1%. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, pushing rates to 3.75%–4%, the first hike since December 2025. After the hike, risk assets caught a breather, but it wasn't an easy one.
Technically? $75,000 is a strong recent support; buyers have defended it through several dips. Above, there's a dense liquidation cluster between $76,800 and $77,000, so rebounds to that level tend to be pushed back. The daily ADX remains above 43, so medium-term downward pressure hasn't eased.
The capital flow is interesting. BlackRock's IBIT has absorbed $1.08 billion in the past 20 days, holdings surged to 785,000 $BTC, while Grayscale's GBTC lost $255 million in the same period. US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold over 1.28 million $BTC, more than 6% of total supply. This shows institutions haven't fled, just rotating positions.
In terms of strategy: regulation is a slow variable, interest rates are the fast variable. Legislative progress won't change funding costs in the short term. Wait for sentiment to digest, watch if $75,000 can hold, then decide whether to act.
---
Finally, a question I'm really thinking about: the tax bill is pushed forward by bipartisan consensus, but the reserve bill is pushed along party lines — one is industry infrastructure, the other a political signal. Do you think the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act will ultimately pass? Or is it destined to be just a card before the midterm elections?
Discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #OKX百万规划师 [Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, The Real Test for Crypto Has Just Begun]
On September 17, the Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the interest rate to 3.75%–4.00%. The probability before the meeting was over 92%, so the result was not surprising. BTC dipped to $75,355 before pulling back near $76,513, a typical "bad news fully priced in" scenario.
But don’t be fooled by the rebound. Dot plot: 12 of 18 officials expect more hikes this year, with none expecting a cut in 2023, and the median rate for 2027 was revised up to 4.1%. Fed Chair Powell bluntly stated that financial conditions are hardly restrictive.
This means market logic shifts from "when will rates be cut" back to "when will rates rise again." With risk-free rates climbing, the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like BTC increases, and liquidity continues to be under pressure.
On-chain data is also not optimistic: exchange stablecoin reserves have evaporated by $16 billion from their peak to about $64 billion. Derivatives positions are light, so short-term liquidation risk is manageable, but spot market confidence is lacking.
My judgment: the rate hike itself has limited impact; what truly suppresses valuations is "higher for longer." The current situation resembles the first phase of the 2022 tightening template—rebound is normal but not necessarily the bottom.
Two points to watch going forward:
① If inflation remains persistently soft, expectations for a pause in hikes will come earlier, giving risk assets some breathing room;
② If stablecoin reserves rebound, off-exchange funds entering the market will be more critical than technical indicators.
Don’t mistake "bad news fully priced in" for a reversal. In a tightening cycle, rebounds are normal; the trend is the answer.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $BTC The fundamental logic should be divided into two layers: v4, Unichain, RWA/permissioned pools, etc., are expanding Uniswap's business boundaries; whether protocol fees, buyback, or burn mechanisms can be sustainably implemented ultimately determines if this growth can be converted into value capture for UNI. From the governance progress perspective, UNIfication and the activation of v4 protocol fees have been listed as executed proposals; UNIfication includes arrangements to retrospectively burn 100 million UNI from the treasury. This is the key reason the market is recently willing to reprice UNI, as the narrative shifts from "governance token" to "an asset potentially linked to protocol cash flow." However, it should be noted that proposal execution does not equate to the income scale, burn pace, and long-term valuation being fully realized; ongoing tracking of the actual scope of protocol fee activation and on-chain revenue is still required. (vote.uniswapfoundation.org) On the product side, Uniswap has recently been continuously advancing v4 dynamic fee hooks, Permissioned Pools, Robinhood Chain deployment, and product expansion around institutional/RWA liquidity. Their commonality is enhancing liquidity, trading volume, and the range of coverable assets; this is positive for the protocol fundamentals but cannot be directly equated to UNI immediately owning proportional cash flow. (blog.uniswap.org) Combining with the daily chart: the low point in mid-August was about 3.17, rising to the recent high From around $1,150 to nearly $1,400 in a single night… what kind of move is this? While $BTC and $ETH are struggling to find direction, $ZEC keeps pushing higher like the broader market doesn’t even exist. Forget the usual resistance lines for a moment — every time traders expect a pullback, another breakout appears. A lot of traders tried to short the rally after the sharp rise. The result? Short → squeeze → stop-loss → another squeeze. 📈 At this point, the biggest risk isn’t just volatility —We are currently using ChatGPT, and most of the logic is still:
A person asks a question → AI answers.
Huawei believes that in ten years, it might be completely different.
Its latest release, Intelligent World 2035, predicts:
By 2035,
Autonomous AI Agents will generate over 90% of global AI Token Traffic.
In other words, the biggest AI users in the future
might not be you and me.
But:
AI.
One Agent checks prices.
Another Agent does analysis.
A third Agent calls APIs.
A fourth Agent makes payments.
A fifth Agent audits.
They might communicate with each other 24/7, call models, and execute tasks nonstop.
This reminds me of a very interesting aspect of Crypto.
Humans already find traditional finance very convenient:
Visa, Alipay, bank accounts.
The real trouble is AI Agents.
AI has no ID card.
No credit card.
It’s hard for AI to open a bank account by itself.
But it can have:
Wallet + Stablecoin + Smart Contract.$ZEC SHORT UPDATE 📉
Entry: ~$1,165
Stop: ~$1,205
Risk: High
The last few trades have been stopped out, and this one is under pressure too.
I expected the previous high to hold as resistance, but price proved otherwise. BTC and ETH also aren’t confirming the bearish setup I was expecting.
At this point, protecting capital matters more than forcing another trade.
One more failed setup and I’m stepping back to reassess.
Trade smart. Protect your capital#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 The recent move looks like a combination of AI narrative + protocol upgrades + capital rotation + real ecosystem activity, rather than just one headline. 1️⃣ AI is only part of the story NEAR is positioning itself around an emerging agentic economy: AI agents that can interact with blockchains, move assets and execute transactions. Its 2026 roadmap combines NEAR AI with NEAR Intents, while Chain Abstraction is designed to let applications and AI agents interact across different chains without us加息之后风险资产反弹，加息不在是威胁吗？这么说有点为时尚早！ 核心因素 加息落地之后的反弹是符合靴子落地预期的，且在上周9月加息概率就已经站稳90%，当概率超过80%市场已经开始定价 所以当加息落地之后，意味着9月加息已经成为过去式，市场开始交易新的未来预期——下一次加息在什么时候？ 沃什本次加息后的讲话可以得出一个结果，单月数据不在成为影响美联储政策改变的核心，但是数据趋势的重要性被提高了， 也就是后续9月的数据对推动后续加息预期至关重要 截止目前，10月加息概率50.9%，12月加息概率49.6%，概率都处于50%附近，意味着后续是否加息还缺乏足够证据，市场自然对后续不在恐惧，不过一旦后续9月的CPI，PEC以及相关数据显示通胀继续维持高位甚至反弹，10月12月加息概率提升，市场还是要回归加息恐惧中 辅助因素 #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 目前打破美联储加息预期+债市收益率高位的关键就是能源价格，日内Brent WTI因为中东局势暂缓出现回落，带动债市长端收益率下降，给市场解压，有助于风险资产的反弹 对于风险资产而言真的度过危机了吗？ 这一点可以参考前文我的观点，近期还是有几$BSB $BSB /USDT current price around 0.0939, the market is quite interesting, outside it's very quiet, the order book is like dogs biting each other, buy and sell walls retreating back and forth, the candlesticks are making small steps upward, like the funds are testing the market. When it's this quiet, a strong pull-up or a sharp dump is mostly a dog trader shaking out the market; chasing highs is easy to get dumped on, and buying dips also requires stop-loss. I will watch with a small position myself, focusing on whether it can hold above 0.0939. What do you think, is this a real breakout or a fake move? Fellow traders, share your thoughts.
👇👇👇Will long-term interest rates remain high indefinitely?
A one-time rate hike can be absorbed by the market.
After the hike, if the economy weakens, rates can be lowered again in the future.
However, an increase in term premium means the market demands higher compensation for fiscal and inflation risks over the coming decades.
This pressure is more persistent.
It does not end after the central bank announces a single policy.
It will continuously weigh on corporate valuations, government financing costs, and the entire asset pricing system.
So, don’t just focus on the policy rate.
Pay attention to long-term government bond yields. But the bigger question isn't the 25bp itself. It's what the Fed signals about the next meeting. If policymakers keep emphasizing inflation risks and the possibility of additional tightening, liquidity could remain under pressure and risk assets such as $BTC and $ETH may stay volatile. If the message is more balanced, markets could interpret it as a sign that the tightening cycle is approaching its later stages. What I'm watching now 👇 🏦 Fed: 25bp hike already largely priced into expectations 加息靴子落地，行情却没按剧本跌，反而往上走了。这事儿挺有意思，回头看看历史上那些加息周期里BTC到底怎么走的，可能比盯着眼前这一根K线更有用。 先说2015到2018那一轮。2015年底美联储搞了十年来第一次加息，BTC basically没啥反应，跟没听见似的。然后2016到2017年继续加，BTC愣是从两百多刀一路干到快两万刀。史上最猛的那波牛市，恰恰就发生在加息周期里。不过后来2018年美联储接着加，BTC又跌了差不多七成。但那一轮牛市说白了是靠叙事、ICO投机和当时利率绝对值还很低撑起来的，所以参考价值其实不大。 再看2022到2023这一轮，这才是最接近“成熟市场碰上快速加息”的情况，也最有参考意义。2021年11月BTC见顶六万九，2022年3月首次加息的时候，已经从那高点回撤了四成，在四万附近晃悠。有意思的是，首次加息当天盘面还偏强，之后大概十二天里还反弹了差不多百分之十八，然后才转入更深的跌势，跌幅百分之六十三，低点大概一万五千五，出现在2022年11月。关键是，低点出现的时候加息还没停，2023年继续加，BTC反而从底部慢慢爬出来了。 所以往后看，如果真的确认进入多轮That massive $ZEC short position is starting to look seriously uncomfortable. 👀 The position reportedly entered around $690, while $ZEC has continued pushing higher instead of giving short sellers the pullback they were waiting for. The trader still has some breathing room, though. 📍 Entry: $690 🔥 Liquidation: $2,720 What makes it even more interesting is that the liquidation level was previously around $2,900, while the average entry has gradually moved higher from roughly $470 → $690. That Huang disclosed that Paradigm is an investor in ZEC and ZODL, while arguing that long-term funding for Zcash development remains important. He also raised concerns that governance based purely on token-holder voting could create unpredictability for Zcash as a monetary asset. That changes the conversation. The issue isn't simply bulls vs bears anymore. It's about how much influence large token holders should have over a privacy-focused network — and how Zcash balances decentralization with predi