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Performance of the crypto market during past Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays $BTC $ETH Historical data shows that there is no stable "must-rise" pattern in the crypto market during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day; a more reliable trend is seasonal: September tends to be weak, October tends to be strong, and post-holiday performance depends on macro conditions, BTC dominance, and altcoin liquidity. Performance during and after the Mid-Autumn Festival There is no stable "holiday effect" during the Mid-Autumn Festival. Historical data from 2011 to 2019 shows that BTC usually experiences a slight pullback around the Mid-Autumn Festival, generally small in magnitude, mostly influenced by the bull/bear cycle and macro environment at the time. - Bull market cycle: Even if there is a pullback around the Mid-Autumn Festival, the market may continue to oscillate upward afterward. - Bear market cycle: After the holiday pullback, the probability of further decline is higher. - Altcoins: More volatile but more susceptible to BTC fluctuations and liquidity; the holiday effect does not independently hold. Performance during the National Day holiday (October 1–8) In the past five years during the National Day holiday, BTC and ETH mostly rose, but not every year. Year BTC ETH 2021 +4.4% +5.0% 2022 +3.7%–4.1% +3.7% 2023 -1.9% -2.8% 2024 +2.2% +3.1% 2025 Experienced a spike during the holiday, but a sharp pullback occurred on October 10–11 Followed BTC's weakness 【$BTC View】Bearish bias (short-term within 24 hours) 【Basis】① 2-hour MA20 (83,836) is pressing from above, indicating a weakening mid-term structure; ② In the last 6 candles on the 15-minute chart, 2 are bullish, showing weak short-term momentum; ③ Price is at 26.7% of the 24-hour range, centered, direction undecided 【Trigger】Break above 83,626 and hold for two 15-minute candles → view turns bullish; break below 83,062 → view turns stronger bearish or invalid 【Invalidation】If a high-volume long bullish candle appears on the 15-minute chart reclaiming the key level, it indicates a wick shakeout, and this view is invalid. $BTC is currently 0.80% below the 2-hour moving average (83,836), with the short-term cost zone nearby. On the 15-minute chart, 2 of the last 6 candles are bullish—selling pressure dominates. Let's first discuss the short-term structure. On the 15-minute timeframe, $BTC is below both MA20 (83,559) and MA50 (83,403), with the two moving averages converging, indicating sideways consolidation awaiting a breakout. The 2-hour range is 82,501 ~ 87,245, with the current price at 13.9% of this range; the 2-hour MA20 is 83,836, and price is 0.80% below it (2-hour perspective). The daily chart shows a complete bullish structure: $BTC's MA20 is at 80,972, with price 2.70% above; daily range is 59,560 ~ 87,374,Going long on AAVE for a rebound after a quick reversal, but I still see the big picture as bearish Checked the market at 6:30 AM US Treasury yields broke 5.2%, oil prices surged to 106, the overall market is under pressure But AAVE dropped to around 147, indicators are oversold I got itchy and took a long position to catch a short-term rebound You read that right: bearish on the big trend, but going long to catch a rebound — just documenting this 😅 First, why go for the rebound On the 4-hour chart, KDJ's J value is only 11.49, RSI6 is around 33 Severely oversold, a technical bounce could happen anytime Bears taking profits and closing positions, bottom-fishing funds grabbing a bite — that's the emotional recovery gap to exploit Now, why the big picture is still bearish Macro fundamentals haven't changed: US Treasury yields at a 17-year high October rate hike probability nearly 70%, money sitting idle earns over 5% interest, who would risk it in crypto? Bitcoin stuck below 83,000, can't break 84,800 resistance no matter what Existing funds can only rotate among altcoins, shooting here and there The overall environment is easy to fall, hard to rise My judgment Long position cost near 147, currently floating profit of 0.13 USDT Account overall earned 0.07 USDT today, total assets 6.7 USDT Purely a small test, absolutely no heavy positions Upper resistance seen at moving averages between 151 and 152 Since this is a rebound, take profits when you can, no romance If it can't break resistance, take profits and leave immediately If it breaks previous lows, stop loss immediately, no stubborn holding Large positions remain empty, waiting for a clear big trend Do you trade these oversold rebounds? Do you take profits quickly or hold stubbornly as a trend? If you have longs or shorts, raise your hand and comment below 👇 $AAVE #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ZEC $SUI This BTC drop hit hard. I’ve officially surrendered — all positions are stopped out. Funny thing is, the moment I give up, the market will probably decide to pump. 😂 So if you’re bullish, maybe this is your signal. My overall view is still bullish, but I paid a heavy price trying to add around $84K–$82K while the trend was moving against me. Lesson learned: adding to a losing position against the trend can turn a manageable loss into a disaster. No hard feelings though. Reset, One-click code vulnerability fix, the problem of 21-node centralization, a single hard fork is fundamentally unsolvable CORE v1.0.26 hard fork was successfully completed, the reward contract minting vulnerability was blocked by a code patch, and 150 million excess tokens in the contract were destroyed, temporarily calming the 8.31 crisis. But this hard fork only solves the code bug and cannot resolve the deeper governance conflicts. The culprit of this vulnerability is the validator nodes in the network. CORE's governance power is concentrated in the hands of 21 validator nodes; major protocol upgrades and crisis handling are decided by the node circle, while ordinary token holders have no on-chain voting rights. Among these nodes are several exchange nodes, inherently creating conflicts of interest. The hard fork only patched the reward distribution logic and did not add mechanisms for pre-supervision, penalties, or removal of nodes. As long as the 21-node centralized structure remains, there is still the possibility of collusion among nodes to abuse their authority in the future. At the same time, 69 million ghost tokens that have already entered the market cannot be reclaimed on-chain, so the risk of selling pressure persists. Token burning is a short-term positive sentiment but merely an emergency patch. In summary: code issues can be fixed through upgrades, but institutional defects in checks and balances of power cannot be solved by a single hard fork. The biggest test of the BTCFi narrative is just beginning.$CFX Conflux Headlines 2026.9.28 1. 【POW Parameters】Current version V3.1.0, total hash rate ≈0.41T, total accounts 25M, yesterday's transactions 7.3+10K, gas fee <$0.00001, CMC global rank #121 2. 【POS Parameters】Total locked 907M, total nodes 68, annual interest rate 8.25% (theoretical calculation), total rewards 255M 3. 【Last Week's Updates】CRC-721 growth slowed, PoS decreased by 1.2M, XUnion's TVL 343K, Nucleon's xCFX minting volume decreased, Swappi liquidity increased, Unitus total deposits and loans 7.16M USD 4. 【Block Updates】USDT0 issuance 20.12M, AxCNH issuance 38.12M, FC/CFX: 1.25 5. 【Overseas Updates】@ConfluxAfrica African community special site Kudihub is now live! The site covers the latest industry news, Conflux community building, and more 6. 【Overseas Updates】On September 29, @Conflux_Network Korean community will hold an offline event in Seoul 7. 【Welfare Activities】Starting September 25, @Conflux_Network continues to distribute 120K CFX to AxCNH suppliers on @dForcenet's Unitus, and 55K CFX to borrowers for two weeks 5.27%, this is the highest yield US Treasury bonds have offered in 19 years The US-Iran standoff is keeping oil prices high. Inflation can't be suppressed, so the Federal Reserve has to keep raising interest rates. The rule is: Bond yields and prices move inversely. A yield rising to 5.27% means new bonds have to pay that much interest. At the moment this triggers: Old bonds pay less interest than new bonds. Holders of old bonds want to sell, so prices have to fall. Asian bond markets follow US Treasuries and open lower. The 30-year yield has reached 5.55%. With borrowing costs raised this high, pressure will spread to every leveraged position. The signal that yields have peaked is when oil prices turn down first. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $HYPE $ETH "Don't rush, the market is gathering strength" The US-Iran negotiations have broken down again, risk sentiment is spilling over, and BTC and gold are both falling unusually. The macro environment is indeed tough, but there has been no panic selling in the crypto market; buying support remains, and prices are temporarily stable. More notably, BTC's market dominance slightly declined this week, with funds showing signs of spreading to ETH and major altcoins. This means that even if BTC continues to pull back, altcoins may not collectively collapse; the rotation structure remains. On the chart, the 85,000 level has been tested three times unsuccessfully, the rebound lacks continuity, and daily divergence has been accumulating for a long time. It's not easy to directly launch a strong rally in the short term; most likely, there will be further consolidation to digest the overhead pressure. At this stage, shorting is easy to be proven wrong, and repeated tug-of-war seems more like building momentum for the next move. Strategically, it’s better to be patient and wait for BTC to drop below 83,000 before looking for a long entry window. Consolidation is not a bad thing; the key is not to make reckless moves amid the noise. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Term Structure Radar $BTC annualized pricing at three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +4.71%/+5.43%/+5.17% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$338.1. $ETH annualized basis decreases with expiration term: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +5.24%/+4.68%/+4.50% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$12.10. The near-term annualized basis is higher than the far-term, with higher annualized pricing concentrated near term. $SOL annualized pricing at three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +1.08%/+2.18%/+1.23% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$0.11. BTC, SOL: The mid-term expiration breaks the monotonic arrangement, and the difference between near and far terms is insufficient to summarize the entire curve. BTC, ETH, SOL: All three expiration points are in contango.$AIXBT current price 0.0226, down 13.41% in 24 hours, trading volume 125.9K. $PHA 0.05999, down 12.63%, trading volume 958.3K. $NEAR 4.793, down 12.10%, trading volume 52.7M. Don't forget to spend time with your family while watching the market over the weekend. ① Market Overview First, look at the $AIXBT/USDT 1h candlestick chart. $AIXBT has fallen from the high of 0.0265, forming a clear five-wave decline. Currently at the end of the fifth wave, the 1h RSI has dropped to around 28, showing a preliminary bullish divergence pattern with price making new lows but RSI not making new lows. The trading volume of 125.9K is relatively thin, and poor liquidity will amplify volatility. ② Key Indicators Next, look at the Fibonacci retracement. $AIXBT rose from 0.0198 to 0.0265, with the 0.786 retracement level at 0.0212. The current price 0.0226 is just above the 0.618 level at 0.0224. The MACD 1h fast and slow lines are still below zero, but the green bars are shortening, indicating weakening bearish momentum. $PHA lost the 0.06 psychological support level after falling 12.63%, with 0.058 as previous low support. $NEAR 4.793 broke below 4.8, with the next Fibonacci 0.5 level at 4.52. ③ Key Levels $AIXBT support at 0.0212, resistance at 0.0240. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 I took some time to look at UniHexa's documentation; it’s not an AMM-style slippage pool. You set the price yourself and choose to buy or sell, and the system matches orders based on price priority and then time priority. Unfilled orders automatically remain on the order book and can be modified or canceled. The documentation is very clear: matching happens first in the order book, and the actual settlement waits for confirmation on the Bitcoin mainnet. So trades can be very fast, but funds arrival requires confirmation. 2702 USD. A friend outside the circle just messaged me, asking if ETH is about to take off. What he doesn't know is that this number was already seen in 2021. Even less does he know that the intraday increase is only 0.94%. To put it plainly, it just hovered in place, not even a decent fluctuation. But the anxiety is real. Outsiders get nervous when they see the word "breakthrough," afraid of missing out, afraid of being left behind again. Insiders just yawn at 0.94%. That's the problem. What really makes people lose money is never the market itself, but the big bull market picture your mind automatically fills in when you see 2700. A breakthrough flash news, paired with less than 1% increase, can make two kinds of people excited at the same time. So, who do you think is really anxious now? #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $ETH Dissecting the CORE Hard Fork Plan: The BTCFi Narrative Game Behind Token Burn ⚠️This article is based solely on publicly available on-chain information and does not constitute any investment advice The CORE v1.0.26 hard fork has been implemented, directly burning 150 million excess minted tokens in the contract while fixing vulnerabilities in the reward contract. The core trade-off of this upgrade is the firm decision not to roll back the historical ledger, preserving the 69 million ghost tokens already circulating in the market. This is not merely a technical choice but a battle over the BTCFi narrative. The core belief of BTCFi, inherited from Bitcoin, is that the ledger is immutable. Choosing to roll back transactions might eliminate selling pressure in the short term but would directly shatter the foundational narrative of "Bitcoin-level security," triggering a collective trust crisis among BTC miners. Therefore, the project team prefers to bear massive selling pressure rather than compromise the immutability bottom line. Token burning is a market sentiment booster, reducing total supply, easing inflation expectations, and stabilizing short-term community confidence. However, the hard fork only fixes code vulnerabilities and does not change the governance structure centralized around 21 validating nodes. The governance conflict caused by excessive node permissions remains unresolved. On one hand, token burning is used to repair market expectations; on the other, the immutability of the ledger is upheld to maintain BTC miner consensus. Yet, the risk of 69 million ghost tokens still looms, and the structural governance shortcomings remain. This hard fork is essentially a compromise made to preserve the BTCFi narrative. It stabilizes market confidence in the short term, but long-term challenges continue. Whether the narrative can sustain depends on subsequent constraints on node power.BTC is hovering near $84K, ETH around $2,700, and ZEC near $1,530. The expected levels were: 📌 BTC $84.5K 📌 ETH $2,725 📌 ZEC $1,615 None managed to hold them. The important thing now is not to chase a move after the fact. ZEC has already taken a serious hit, so opening a fresh short at current levels could be risky. BTC and ETH are worth watching for a bounce into resistance before deciding on the next move. Would you rather trade the rebound or wait for confirmation?BTC: failed to hold $84.5K ETH: failed to hold $2,725 ZEC: failed to hold $1,615 All three were literally one step away. Now BTC is around $84K, ETH around $2,700, and ZEC around $1,530. After extended sideways action, another move lower is possible. But I wouldn't blindly chase a ZEC short here after the recent weakness. For tonight, patience matters more than forcing an entry. Do we get the rebound tomorrow, or does the market finish the move lower?9.29 BTC Analysis Analysis: Short near the rebound at 84000-84500, defend at 85000, first target 83000, second target 82000 After reaching the 1H cycle high point at 85159.03, it fell back, bottomed at 82563, then started a slight rebound repair. Currently, the rebound momentum is insufficient, belonging to a pullback within a downtrend, with limited bullish continuation momentum. The trading strategy is to short on rallies based on the resistance zone, avoid blindly bottom-fishing or chasing longs, strictly control position size, and always use stop-loss. $BTC $ETH $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟 At 20:30 Beijing time on September 30, the US August core PCE price index will be released, followed by the September nonfarm payroll report at 20:30 on October 2. Currently, the US economy remains resilient, inflation cooling is slow, and after the Federal Reserve's pause, US Treasury yields remain high. The market is extremely sensitive to the interest rate path and the duration of the high level. Several Fed officials will speak this week, with Barr discussing the economic outlook and Jefferson focusing directly on the US economy and monetary policy. $BTC is shuttling back and forth between 81,800 and 84,200 like a never-stopping rock crusher. Those trying to catch a rebound were suppressed just after opening positions at 82,300, while those waiting for a breakout hesitate at 84,600. Neither bulls nor bears are gaining an advantage. $ETH is tugging repeatedly around 2,610, with selling hitting immediately at 2,660 and buying sweeping in at 2,570. My long position at 2,640 remains open; I added a bit during the dip two days ago and took some off during today's rebound. The remaining position will just go with the flow. It's not that I don't want to exit, but until the range breaks, all the ups and downs are just tests. Bears haven't surrendered, and bulls haven't retreated.The most unusual number in crypto right now isn't $BTC above $85,000. It's $5.3 billion — the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows that have landed since the U.S. Treasury's buyback plan took shape. A government balance-sheet signal, not a halving or a rate cut, has become the marginal buyer's trigger. That flow has a weekly shape too: $2.39 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, the strongest since October 2025. On-chain, the 24-hour net inflow into BTC was 88.8268 BTC — modest by ETF standards, buBTC is sitting around $83,200, just above the $82,832 level. The market has already broken the $84K box, but that doesn't mean it's smart to chase shorts here. My area of interest is $84,200–$84,500. 📍 Short zone: $84.2K–$84.5K 📍 Stop loss: $85.3K 📍 Target: $82.9K → $82K The sequence of lower highs — $87,247 → $85,224 → $85,146 — is keeping the short-term structure bearish. US stocks went up. Crypto said: thanks, but no thanks. 😂 BTC $84.5K first, or $82K first?$ETH short position floating loss is 8500 dollars, $SOL short position floating loss is 1200 dollars. Both are full positions, and the margin ratio has reached 1400%. $ETH opening average price is 2668, the mark price is already 2696, liquidation price is 2883. Honestly, if it pushes up a bit more from here, my mentality will really explode. $SOL is even worse, shorted at 118, now at 119.8, although it hasn't reached liquidation yet, watching it creep up is more painful than getting liquidatedInfrastructure narratives rarely lead a cycle unless they are underwritten by stablecoin liquidity and a macro backdrop that rewards duration. When $LINK and $AVAX start breaking out together, the thesis is not just about better technology or stronger community sentiment; it is about capital seeking yield and utility in on-chain rails while the dollar remains the dominant reserve asset. If stablecoin supply continues to expand and on-chain activity rises, these assets can hold value even as risk"The Snowball Effect of $SOL and My Long Position Prayers" Bitcoin is stagnant, overseas old money is impatient, turning sharply toward SOL. Solana transfers are fast with low fees; dog coins, memes, and DeFi all flock in. JUP and RAY consistently rank high in trading volume, and on-chain popularity remains strong. When the market warms up, retail investors often first sweep up small coins in the SOL ecosystem. SOL also has narratives of halving and staking lock-ups, tightening the circulating supply. Once sentiment rises, the market trades not just a coin but the entire chain’s potential. SOL leads the rally, followed by RAY and JUP, meme coins rise in rotation, spreading the profit effect; the more people make money, the more enter, creating a positive feedback loop that snowballs. But my position hasn’t kept up with this excitement. On the pons platform, RH’s popularity has dropped sharply; the project team has no extra funds for buybacks and no good news is expected. Yet I opened a long position and can only pray for mercy now. Even if the ecosystem is booming, not every small token gets a share of the gains. When the wind stops, those who chased highs usually fall first. I just hope for one bullish candle to let me exit alive. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Rushing in despite knowing there’s a risk? Is the CORE sector’s pulse rally an opportunity or a trap? ⚠️This article is only an on-chain review and does not constitute any investment advice When BTCFi rotation heats up, CORE always manages to produce a strong pulse rally. With a low entry barrier, a large retail base, and a highly recognizable sector narrative, every time the sector warms up, short-term funds cluster together to push prices up. But everyone in the market knows well: the risk from the 69 million ghost tokens has never disappeared. People still rush in despite knowing the risk, essentially gambling on the coexistence of opportunity and risk traps. CORE’s advantage lies in its strong short-term elasticity. Relying on the EVM ecosystem and a huge retail base, after STX and MERL peak, funds habitually switch between highs and lows. At low levels, CORE easily triggers rapid catch-up rallies driven purely by sentiment, with sharp gains. But the biggest fatal flaw of this rally: fundamental risks remain completely unresolved. This hard fork only patched future minting loopholes; the 69 million low-cost ghost tokens already in circulation have no lock-up or burn. Every rally is an excellent exit window for large holders. The rally is driven by hype, with no real profits, no institutional support, and no governance improvements. Once the hype fades, prices quickly fall back. Summary: CORE is a battleground for short-term experts but a trap for retail investors to be left holding the bag. The BTC range has finally cracked. $BTC is now around $83.2K, down 1.4% over 24H. The structure still favors shorts, but the key is entry timing. I would rather wait for BTC to rebound into $84.2K–$84.5K than chase the breakdown. Plan: 🔻 Entry: $84.2K–$84.5K 🛑 SL: $85.3K 🎯 TP1: $82.9K 🎯 TP2: $82K With highs falling from $87.2K to $85.2K to $85.1K, buyers haven't shown much strength. Is $82K the next stop?$CRV surged 11% in a single day! Is this a "real breakout" or a "false peak"? Curve has integrated Circle's stablecoin L1 network Arc, assisting issuers in deploying liquidity pools; the H1 report proposes increasing protocol fee sharing from 10% to 30%. The liquidity hub for stablecoin swaps, the crvUSD ecosystem, and Llamalend lending expansion are the core areas of potential. Current price is 0.3673, with a 24-hour high of 0.3690. RSI6 has soared to 75.35, entering the overbought zone. Resistance at 0.3700-0.3800, support at 0.3500-0.3300. Recently, a large whale liquidated 31.4 million CRV at an average price of 0.35, incurring a loss of about 4.1 million USD. The rebound depends on whether new buying interest emerges. The DeFi sector is generally warming up, with UNI and others rising in tandem, and capital flowing back into decentralized exchange tracks. $BTC and $ETH are consolidating sideways; some funds are seeking catch-up targets by buying low and selling high, benefiting CRV. This CRV rally is supported by fundamentals, but RSI is overbought and there is significant resistance above 0.37. Holding above 0.35 is key to continuation; otherwise, watch out for profit-taking. Be cautious chasing the highs. Sigh, got sanctioned by ZEC again. Last time I dealt with ZEC it was the same, stuck for a long time. This time I don't know how many days I'll be stuck again. Damn manipulators, it crashes as soon as they say it will. Woke up today and found myself stuck. When will I get out of this? ZEC is now at $1470, down 7% in the last 24 hours, dropping sharply. Yesterday it was still above $1520, but it crashed through $1500 overnight. The $1500 level didn't hold at all. In comparison, BTC only dropped 0.85% today. This drop in ZEC is clearly an oversell. I'm really out of options. Why do I always lose when I play ZEC?Last night, Bitcoin's lowest dropped to 82,563, just over 60 dollars short of the first buying zone at 82,500, almost touching it before pulling back above 83,000. ETH held steady around 2,670, while SOL fell near 1.18. This drop looks scary but is actually a standard bottom-probing move. The quick recovery after the spike indicates there are buyers at the 82,500 level. Don't worry if your limit orders missed by a bit; the market signal shows the direction is correct. There's likely to be repeated testing ahead, and if it really breaks down, watch for the 80,000 and 78,000 levels. Hold your spot positions calmly; this is not a place to cut losses but a place to patiently wait for buying opportunities.CORE Hard Fork: Token Burn, 69 Million Sell Pressure Looming ⚠️ This article is for investment research sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice The CORE v1.0.26 hard fork was successfully completed. The project team burned 150 million excess minted tokens in the contract and fixed the reward contract vulnerability to prevent nodes from exploiting the loophole to mint tokens in the future. This upgrade insists on not rolling back the historical ledger, maintaining the immutable narrative baseline of BTCFi, and temporarily stabilizing miner confidence. However, the crisis is not completely over. The 69 million tokens that have already entered the secondary market as ghost chips remain a risk hanging over the market. These tokens will not be reclaimed through on-chain operations; the project team can only pursue accountability through offline legal litigation, which is difficult to gather evidence for and takes a long time. The probability of recovering these chips is low, and they may be sold off in batches at any time, causing continuous sell pressure. What is more concerning is that this hard fork only fixed the code vulnerability and did not change the governance structure of the 21 validator nodes. The structural issues of excessive node permissions and lack of prior checks and balances remain. The token burn brings short-term positive sentiment, but the ghost chip sell pressure and governance risks have not been eliminated. This hard fork is only an emergency fix; long-term risks still require the attention of all token holders.BTC fell below 83,000, OKB long positions in danger On Monday afternoon, the market started a one-sided decline. BTC fell below 83,000, hitting a low of 82,561; SOL broke 120, dropping to 117.52; OKB was the worst, crashing from 122.39 to 116.19. Key supports all broken, short-term weakness. BTC's 15-minute moving average shows bearish divergence, 83,337 is resistance, if it can't recover above 83,500, it will likely test 82,000. SOL support is at 117.5, if broken look for 115. OKB rebound above 118 is strong resistance. Important reminder: your OKB long position is at risk. 20x isolated margin, opened at 117.57, liquidation at 114.04 — only 2.7% margin left. A further drop will wipe out the 12.74U margin directly. Three life-saving suggestions: 1. Immediately set a stop loss at 116.5, accept a 6U loss, don’t hesitate. 2. Reduce positions on a rebound to 118.5-119, don’t hold stubbornly. 3. Never add margin; adding funds during a downtrend is like giving away money. Having just experienced liquidation, if this position is forcibly closed again, your mindset will collapse. Set your stop loss and protect your principal; that’s the most important tonight. $BTC $ETH $OKB Will BTC reach 82,000? Discuss in the comments👇 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Good news piles up, so why is Bitcoin still hovering around 83,000? Bitcoin recently dropped to around $83,000, leaving many confused: ETF inflows hit a new high, halving expectations are tantalizing, so why isn't it rising? The answer isn't in the crypto circle, but in Washington. The market is now focused not on on-chain data, but on two papers: Wednesday's PCE inflation and Friday's nonfarm payrolls. The former is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, with the last core reading at 3.3%; the latter has a market expectation of 100,000 new jobs, down from 160,000 previously. Having just raised rates in September, the Fed's biggest fear is that prices won't be contained while employment remains strong. The logic is straightforward: soft data means a weak dollar and gives Bitcoin strength to push upward; hard data heats up rate hike expectations, causing risk assets to fall first. Everyone is still betting on another hike in October, and this uncertainty weighs on the price like a slab of stone. But looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin's fundamentals haven't changed: a total supply of 21 million coins, about 20.09 million mined, with daily new supply only around four hundred coins. U.S. spot ETFs have locked up over a million coins, and corporate treasuries are still accumulating. The next halving won't happen until 2028. The more money printed, the fewer Bitcoins mined. In the short term, it is driven by macro data; in the long term, it follows a different path. Right now, 83,000 is not the end, but a waiting point. $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Friends placing orders during the National Day holiday, please note: August PCE will be released at 20:30 on September 30, and September Nonfarm Payrolls at 20:30 on October 2. These two data releases will affect expectations for continued rate hikes in October. If inflation remains hot and employment stays strong, BTC is likely to continue facing pressure; if inflation cools and employment slows moderately, it will be more comfortable for the bulls. The data hasn't been released yet, so the direction cannot be taken as certain in advance. BTC has retreated from above 85,000, recently rebounded to 84,300 but was sold off again. Today, consider shorting on the rebound first and wait for a position from above. Direction: Short on rebound Support: 83,000, 82,500–82,800 Resistance: 84,000–84,350 Entry: After a rebound to 83,900–84,100, if the 15-minute close falls back below 83,900, consider shorting between 83,800–83,900 Stop loss: 84,500 Take profit: first 83,000, then 82,600 Invalidation: Cancel the plan if 84,500 or 82,600 is touched before entry; if not triggered, wait until 23:00 on September 29. This trade is only for intraday pullback. After the data is released tomorrow night, reassess. Do not rigidly apply today's short trade idea. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Burning 150 million excess tokens, CORE hard fork: a crisis fix that treats the symptoms, not the root cause ⚠️This article is for investment research sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice The CORE v1.0.26 hard fork has officially been implemented. The most market-focused action in this plan is the direct burning of 150 million excess tokens issued by the contract, sealing the reward contract loophole at the code level to prevent nodes from exploiting the loophole to issue tokens privately again. Meanwhile, the project team sticks to the bottom line and does not roll back the historical ledger; 69 million ghost tokens that have already entered the secondary market will not be recovered on-chain. From a short-term market perspective, burning a large amount of tokens somewhat improves the token supply expectations, blocks the risk of similar future issuance, temporarily stabilizes the confidence of BTC miners, and allows this 8.31 loophole crisis to be temporarily calmed. Many in the community regard this hard fork as a satisfactory resolution to the crisis. But beneath the surface, it is not hard to see that this fix is merely a patch to the code loophole, a typical emergency fix that treats the symptoms, not the root cause. The instigators of this incident were the validator nodes within the network. The 21 validator nodes hold underlying protocol permissions, including several exchange nodes. Major network upgrades and crisis handling are decided internally by the node circle, and ordinary token holders have no on-chain voting rights. The hard fork only fixed the code bug in reward calculation; it did not change the node governance rules, nor did it add pre-constraints or recall mechanisms to prevent malicious behavior by nodes. In other words, code loopholes can be blocked through upgrades, but the structural contradiction of power concentration in the 21-node system remainsOil prices surged above $100, but BTC didn't crash! 82,500 might become the critical line between bulls and bears; if it doesn't hold, trouble is coming! The real market disturbance this time isn't from inside the crypto circle, but from a sudden macro push: Trump rejected Iran's conditions, oil prices climbed back above $100, US Treasury yields continued rising, and risk assets came under pressure together. BTC once dipped near 83,000. But the market didn't completely collapse. Bitget gradually resumed withdrawals, BitMine's ETH holdings surpassed 6 million, and Strategy continues to accumulate BTC—these news somewhat supported the market, though short-term sentiment remains cautious. $BTC Current price around 83,400. If you want to go long, wait for stabilization near 82,800-83,000 before entering lightly, with a stop loss at 82,000; resistance above is first at 84,000-84,500, and if broken, look toward 85,200. If it effectively breaks below 82,500, consider short positions with a stop loss at 83,500. $ETH Current price around 2,680. Consider going long after a pullback and stabilization at 2,630-2,650, with a stop loss at 2,600; resistance is at 2,700-2,740, and if it can't break through around 2,720, consider light short positions with a stop loss at 2,760. This is a typical case of “scary news, but the market hasn't fully collapsed.” Whether 82,500 holds might be the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Don't guess the direction now; focus on 82,500: if it holds, expect a rebound; if it breaks, watch out for a drop toward 82,000. The market is silent, but key price levels will speak for it.Friends placing orders during National Day, please note: August PCE will be released at 20:30 on September 30, and September Nonfarm Payrolls at 20:30 on October 2. These two data releases will affect expectations for continued rate hikes in October. If inflation remains hot and employment stays strong, Bitcoin is likely to continue facing pressure; if inflation cools and employment slows moderately, it will be more comfortable for the bulls. The data hasn't come out yet, so the direction cannot be taken as certain in advance. Bitcoin $BTC has retreated from above 85,000, recently rebounded to 84,300 but was sold off again. Today, consider shorting on the rebound first and wait for a position from above. Direction: Short on rebound Support: 83,000, 82,500–82,800 Resistance: 84,000–84,350 Entry: After a rebound to 83,900–84,100, if the 15-minute close falls back below 83,900, consider shorting between 83,800–83,900 Stop loss: 84,500 Take profit: first 83,000, then 82,600 Invalidation: Cancel the plan if 84,500 or 82,600 is touched before entry; if not triggered, wait until 23:00 on September 29. This trade is only for intraday pullback. After the data comes out tomorrow night, reassess. Do not rigidly apply today's short trade idea.The simulated account has already realized profits reaching +181.3U Realized profit (net), floating profit +100.8U. The live account shows losses due to a higher entry point and later start time, but the issue is minor as the position size has been automatically reduced. The strategy has been optimized again; it should now be at its optimum, likely reaching its limit. The strategy has a high profit-loss ratio and a low win rate. A low win rate is normal for trend-following strategies, which mainly add positions when the trend is confirmed. The weak points are reducing losses during weak or divergent phases. It is not a Martingale or grid strategy, which are specific market environment strategies with tail risks, short-term profits, and very high win rates but eventually cause large losses. K corresponds to capital utilization or risk exposure. K annualized MDD positioning: K1.0 (current T+0) +41.5% −8.6% most conservative, 30-day observation window baseline K1.15 +48.7% −9.8% completely equal risk to current (−9.8% ≈ −9.9%), earning 9.3pp more K1.2 +51.2% −10.4% slightly exceeds current risk K1.5 +66.7% −12.8% increased returns, reduced drawdown, lowered risk exposure in bear markets, both long and short reduced. 2026 (a weak year with lower but still positive returns) is a year of oscillation plus rebound. The current strategy filters part of the rebound to prevent false rebounds. This reduces drawdown and increases the possibility of leveraging.$ADA reverses SEC positive news with a -3.5% drop: scale in low below 0.2486   The SEC issued non-binding guidance early morning, stating that staked receipt tokens are not automatically considered securities, but $ADA's market didn't buy it — currently at 0.2438, down 3.56% in 24h. My stance is clear: this level is bullish, dips are buying opportunities.   Technically, it's not bad — daily RSI at 65.4 is strong, MACD shows a golden cross with red bars flattening above zero line, MA7 has been above MA30 for 7 days, bullish alignment intact.   Volume speaks too — 24h volume at 57,059,983 USDT, volume ratio 1.559, volume-driven drop looks more like a shakeout than distribution.   Sentiment hasn't collapsed — after the event ADA only moved from 0.2451 to 0.2438, down 0.53%, fear-greed index still at 74.   Resistance above: 0.2486   Support below: 0.2192   The broader market shows high-level divergence and pullback, rise/fall ratio 15/77, average of US and crypto stocks -2.05%, risk_off means no chasing highs, below 0.2486 is the buying zone.   Direction set — current price 0.2438, open first long position, scale in more on pullback below 0.2486; stop loss if breaks 0.2192, take profit if it holds 0.2486. Watching the market, follow me for the next signal.   $ADA $BTC#ETH This wave of ETH rebound is stronger than BTC's, and the exchange rate is also slowly recovering. But 2800 is the dividing line; only if it breaks above will there be room for 3400. For the short term, see if the trading volume can sustain; without volume, it'll touch and come back.NMR (Numeraire) has shown a quite impressive performance today, surging 40% in 24 hours, with the price reaching around $14. Such a magnitude of fluctuation is rare in the current market environment and is worth a brief discussion. NMR is the native token of the Numerai platform. Numerai is a unique project; it is an AI-driven hedge fund that distributes encrypted data to data scientists, allowing them to build predictive models to participate in trading strategies. Well-performing models receive NMR rewards, while poor-performing ones are destroyed—this mechanism gives NMR a certain deflationary characteristic. This recent surge does not appear to have a clear single catalyst based on public information. It could be a rebound repair after an earlier oversell, or a market re-pricing of Numerai’s recent developments. NMR’s liquidity is relatively limited, which also means the price is prone to amplified volatility—rising quickly but potentially retreating just as fast. If you are following this asset, it is recommended to pay close attention to on-chain token burn data and changes in platform participant activity. These fundamental indicators are more telling than short-term price movements. After a 40% daily increase, the risk-reward ratio of chasing the price higher needs to be carefully weighed by yourself. $NMR 🪙 BTC On BTC, we're seeing a break out of the structure ✔️ It's unlikely we'll manage to get back into the structure and hold there on the current candle, so I'm personally preparing to catch a bounce from the nearest support zone at 81,650–80,740. That said, I'm not marking a new resistance zone yet either. It's better to wait on that, so I'll come back with an update later 🤝 $BTC $ACH, you stubborn little bastard. Sipping black coffee while tech stocks bleed and gold pretends to care, yet here you are, playing dead like you owe nobody nothing. Bridges to fiat, promise of the future, but right now? Just dead silence testing a man’s patience. I’m not selling, purely out of spite. One fine morning you’ll wake up and run, or I’ll just drown in caffeine waiting. Life’s a messy bet anyway. ☕ ＃CoinMoveAlert ＃StrategyPlaybookFor those who didn’t get my last post: Bitcoin longs have been getting closed nonstop while shorts keep piling up That means the cost to push price higher is actually lower than the cost to push it lower That’s one reason BTC hasn’t sold off like Gold or the Nasdaq🎯 They force a quick squeeze to make shorts panic and close Only then do they get the liquidity needed to push price lower Watch the shorts. That’s where the real story isMid-Bull Market Volatility: Don't Charge at Every Pullback Mid-stage volatility tests differentiation: BTC pulls back first, but as long as the long-term trend and core support remain intact, it's still just a rotation; ETH follows the broader market with moderate rebound strength; DOGE is driven by sentiment, falling sharply and bouncing quickly, but struggles to sustain. Therefore, a pullback is not a universal buy signal. Weak coins' rebounds lack follow-through, and the more you add, the more passive you become. If funds flow back, BTC and ETH usually benefit first; Meme coins are only suitable for small, short-term positions, not heavy bets on the bottom. This week, non-farm payrolls, PCE, Micron earnings, and US-Iran negotiations may amplify volatility. In response, core assets should be accumulated gradually at lower levels, while maintaining cash and position flexibility. Volatility is a sieve, not a charge signal. Prioritize the strong, observe the weak; rhythm and position sizing matter more than direction. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $BTC Nice fake breakdown of the ascending triangle previously shared. I will long upon 4hr reclaim. Minimal target would be to take last week highs. Market will move up along side it.$BTC I can be wrong, & I am giving you this S/R to know when I'll be wrong as well. The OG 82.6K P-Level. We already closed 1 weekly candle above this level which does not look good. Tho, we did take profits on the original short bias from 87.4K & my pinned post entry. The next target I am looking for is 79K, let's see. Even if I am wrong about 73K, we'll be in profits. Win is a win.A blockchain doesn’t need a CEO to survive a crisis. Dogecoin’s 2014 fork is a perfect example: when miners exploited a predictable reward system, the community didn’t wait for a central authority. ➤ The protocol had a problem. ➤ The community identified it. ➤ The network changed through consensus. That’s the real experiment of decentralization: who decides when nobody is in charge?$BTC long plan. Still no business for me as we didnt reach the demand zone for longs. Still expecting a correction towards my POI as long we reject the mentioned area of supply. If it does reclaim from here then i reevaluate my plan. Let the price action do its thing 🪄$BTC EOD update: Pretty much what we mapped pre-NY. GP tagged, weekly open slightly front-ran, now seeing local rejection. Flows still aren’t convincing - old positioning driving flows, no new intitiative: > upside started with local spot support > then mostly short covering > very little fresh initiative We discussed this scenario on stream. GP with this weak initiative would’ve been a valid entry, but I was in the gym and I’m already well exposed. Recently, there have been quite a few UniHexa events, so I took some time to look through UniHexa's documentation. It's not an AMM-style slippage pool. You set the price yourself and choose to buy or sell; the system matches orders based on price priority and then time priority. Unfilled orders automatically remain on the order book and can be modified or canceled. The documentation is very straightforward: matching is first done in the order book, and the actual settlement happens on the Bitcoin mainnet. So, trading can be very fast, but the funds arrival requires confirmation. ETH spiked to 2720 then oscillated; the short-term key lies in this range Last night, ETH briefly spiked to 2720 before falling back to oscillate around 2673. Technically, the $2722–$2822 range is the main supply wall; the spike being pushed back indicates heavy selling pressure above. On the downside, $2650 is the Bollinger Bands lower support, and $2560 is the ascending trendline; if these break, a retest of $2440 is possible. Exchange data shows divergence between bulls and bears: ETH balance on exchanges has dropped to a multi-year low, only about 3.49%, with staking and DeFi continuously accumulating, indicating tight supply; however, large addresses’ CVD shows net selling, retail investors are absorbing, revealing a clear split between major players and retail, lacking short-term consensus. On the macro front, the Fed’s hawkish stance and high US Treasury yields suppress risk assets; if the Middle East situation eases, risk appetite may rebound, but if it escalates, pressure will continue. Overall, ETH is caught in a tug-of-war between "on-chain supply contraction" and "macro liquidity tightening." Short-term outlook: Holding above $2722 on strong volume could challenge $2900–$3000; breaking below $2650 and losing $2560 support may test $2440; most likely, it will oscillate between $2650 and $2722, awaiting direction from the Fed meeting or geopolitical developments. ⚠️ The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC Bottom might be in We got a really clean deviation of the range low and haven't been able to break through it after multiple attempts. For me this is clearly looking bullish, and I'd be interested in looking for longs targeting the high at 87k. Another key confluence is the double SMT at the main low with USDT and ETH, as well as on the internal low. Combining this with the fact that we've got more liquidity higher, I could see this being a really good long opportunity. The main POI I'm wat
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