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【On-Chain Trading Activity｜HYPE】
Monitored address 0xb7e0 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $87.25
▪ Transaction amount this time: $210,116.07
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over $1,418,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +28.04% The hottest topic in the community today: Someone officially proposed on GitHub to cut Dogecoin's block reward from 10,000 to 1,000, reducing inflation from 3.2% per year directly down to 0.3%. A community vote is expected later this year.
When I was on my way home tonight, pushing my bike across an overpass, I stopped and looked at my phone three times, my hands trembling a bit. It wasn’t fear, but the excitement of "after waiting so many years, someone is finally doing something serious." Cutting the newly issued coins to one-tenth of the original—doesn’t that mean scarcity? Scarcity is one of the most valuable words in the long run.
A net friend of mine was sarcastic in the group chat tonight, saying, "Dogecoin wants to imitate others and do deflation? Dream on." I stared at that sentence for a long time, typed a reply, deleted it, typed again, deleted again. Finally, I replied: Whether the vote passes or not, the community is moving forward. Haven’t you noticed this is no longer the joke Dogecoin it used to be?
Actually, I do have concerns—what if the proposal doesn’t pass? That would be disappointing. But then I thought, the fact that the proposal was even brought up shows there are people in the community with ideas and capabilities who have been working hard. These discussions didn’t even exist five years ago.
I’m holding steady, waiting quietly for the voting results. If it passes, I’ll hold with more confidence; if not, I’ll still hold. Because what I believe in isn’t just a proposal, it’s these people. Faith is watching them push forward again and again.BTC perpetual funding rate on OKX rises to 0.0063%, surpassing Ethereum; spot turnover at $83,465.3
Tonight, the BTC perpetual funding rate on OKX rose to 0.0063%, overtaking Ethereum. For those holding positions, tonight's focus is on the turnover at $83,465.3. The annualized cost of holding long positions has reached 6.9%. The short-side discount subsidy from a few days ago is gone, making the holding cost significantly higher than before.
I checked the contract position distribution; the total OKX perpetual contract size tonight stands at $7.792 billion. BTC contract positions account for $2.964 billion, ETH for $1.748 billion, and altcoin contract positions stand at $3.079 billion. The altcoin-to-BTC position ratio has dropped from 1.066 last night to 1.039. The overall market fear and greed index is at 74 (greedy). The total crypto market cap has fallen 3.35% in 24 hours to $2.875 trillion, with Bitcoin's market dominance at 58.11%.
I looked at the contract funding rates of other major coins, and the differences are quite large. ETH's rate is only 0.0032%, SOL has dropped to -0.0001%, and XRP is even at a discount of -0.0047%. On the altcoin contracts side, shorts are paying interest to longs, while only BTC longs are actually paying funding fees each period. The defensive willingness on both sides during market pullbacks is completely different.
I personally kept my BTC spot position during Monday's night session and did not place overnight orders in the contract account #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver
$BTC remains range-bound at $83K–$85K despite nearly $3B in ETF inflows over six days. Demand is strong, but the breakout is still missing.
$ETH is hovering near $2,680, with $2,742 resistance and $2,650 support. My $2,712 short is still partially open.
$SOL continues to lead, moving from $117 to $122, but chasing the move could expose traders to a pullback.
In this choppy market, patience may be better than constantly flipping positionDoes this count as bearish news for $ZEC and other privacy coins?
If anonymity itself is a false proposition,
then the current value of ZEC is too inflated.
In that case, shorting $ZEC is a surefire win.
I don't want to close my position now; I even feel like adding to my short.
Holding from $993 until now,
countless times I wanted to stop loss and close the position,
but now it seems none of that was necessary.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 我們來看一下狗狗幣的部分。 先講這一輪的重點：點位沒有什麼大的變動，基本上也沒有什麼太大的波動，我們就按照之前跟大家說的操作方式來做，止盈止損一定要做好。 現價約 0.0926，24 小時跌了大約 4.3%，還是今天這五個幣裡面最弱的一個。以 OKX 來看，24 小時最高 0.0978 左右、最低 0.0920 左右，傍晚在 0.0931 附近，晚上又再往下探了一點。 操作建議的部分，看法不變：0.1 附近可以空，0.1 補倉，0.12 止損，止盈看個人。 狗狗今天雖然跌最多，但對我們的計畫來說，重點只有一個：0.1 還沒到。計畫裡的空單位置在 0.1 附近，現在 0.0926 在下面追空，止損卻還是要放 0.12，這筆單的風險報酬比就很難看。所以正確的做法，是把空單預掛在 0.1 附近，等它自己反彈上來成交；沒有反彈，就代表這筆單本來就不該做，那也沒關係。 另外，狗狗是情緒幣，一根針上下好幾趴很常見。所以倉位一定要比大餅小，止損一定要跟著單子一起掛。倉位小，你才抱得住；止損有掛，你才睡得著。不要上頭。 技術面上，一樣看 4 小時圖。狗狗上禮拜衝到 0.106 附近，圖上標為弱高點，之$ETH 💥 Don't blindly trust the timeline! The market only recognizes capital and liquidity; remember the key levels.
Remember one thing in trading: price is the truth, the timeline is just a reference.
The market ignores all bullish speculations; what truly determines direction is always the strength of the buy and sell orders and liquidity.
$BTC key defense level at 84000
$ETH core support at 2660
$SOL needs volume to hold above 120 to be considered strong
Only a valid retracement with volume can reverse the current pattern; if the price refuses to reclaim key positions, the risk will continue to increase.
Patience itself is a position; don't make premature judgments, wait for confirmation signals before taking action.
Another major news: BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit a near one-year high.
Rumors say the Trump administration plans to launch an overseas stablecoin program, involving multiple departments and public-private cooperation to deploy stablecoins overseas. This narrative is worth continuous tracking.Under what circumstances do people most want to trade?
1. When seeing others making money, the fear of missing out
2. After a series of personal successes, feeling very confident
3. When suffering a big loss, desperately wanting to recover
Therefore, when encountering these three situations, you need to stay alert at all times. Missing out is always better than losing 💰 by ten thousand times. Opportunities come every day, and often the biggest enemy on the trading path is yourself…………
#discipline #tradingAccount Position Divergence Radar
$XAU Top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 3.753, top positions long-short ratio is 0.711; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 5.793; price down 0.49%, position value change -1.76%.
$DOGE Top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.619, top positions long-short ratio is 0.753; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.604; price down 0.29%, position value change +1.38%.
$USELESS Both top accounts and top positions are long-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.163, top positions long-short ratio is 1.055; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 0.350; price up 0.032%, position value change +0.61%. The structure of account numbers and position distribution in the top group are aligned. The overall market account structure is short-biased, which also differs from the top position bias.
XAU, DOGE: The side dominating in account numbers is opposite to the side dominating in positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution; the overall market account structure is long-biased, which also differs from the top position bias.The controversy over tokenized stocks is not about on-chain technology, but about voting rights.
Adam Aron of AMC has called out Robinhood again.
This time, he says that overseas tokenized stocks must also retain voting rights.
The original rule states:
Robinhood in the US supports the SEC's position.
Tokenized stocks must have voting rights, and companies can opt out.
Common misunderstanding:
The same stock has voting rights in the US version but not in the overseas version.
So the overseas purchase is just a price certificate.
When the company holds a shareholders' meeting, this certificate has no vote.
Market makers will quote based on two sets of assets.
Those with voting rights and those with pure price exposure carry different risks.
Naturally, the price spreads will differ.
With inconsistent rules on both sides, who will ultimately set the price?
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Ondo推出基于贝莱德策略的代币化投资组合 #ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化 $AMC $ETH I think Ethereum still has another wave of decline
Currently, the hourly chart shows a rebound near 2630, unable to break through 2700
This indicates the overall trend is still downward, going long is very risky
At this stage, you can follow the major trend
Overall, you can still see around 2550
$BTC Bitcoin is much weaker than Ethereum, only rebounded to 83500 before losing momentum, less than a thousand points of rebound space
This shows the buying power is very weak now, affected by the US-Iran situation, it may continue to decline, and today is only Monday. This week is a non-farm payroll week, which may be influenced by gold Support Below
Support Level Position Significance
Immediate Support 82,561 Today's low, quickly recovered after liquidity hunting
Core Support 81,194 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud + 50% Fibonacci double resonance
Liquidation Danger Zone $80,516 If broken, cumulative long liquidation intensity reaches $1.047 billion
Analyst Axel Kibar holds a cautious attitude, believing that BTC's weekly trend near 84,000-85,000 lacks decisive breakout characteristics, and the current indecisive pattern suggests the price may return to this range again. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 To add more, just now I saw some friends saying that the proposed amendments to Iran's proposal might be fake news, but it's quite the opposite.
Multiple media reports indicate that the Iranian Foreign Minister, originally scheduled to return home on Tuesday, chose to stay in the US, while at the same time the Qatari mediator also stayed. These reports corroborate the authenticity of the intermediary mediation in the US-Iran dialogue.
At the same time, media reports again confirm that the discussion is about a modified version of Iran's "7-day plan."
According to the current development trend, nominally the US and Iran still have opportunities for dialogue, which is optimistic, but caution must be maintained. As mentioned earlier, if Middle East energy output really recovers, it could very well become a reason for Trump to continue a tough stance. Of course, this does not rule out the possibility that this data is "fake news" released by the US through special means.
Obviously, the short-term news environment has entered a noise phase, and the situation can still be considered optimistic. The outcome depends on the situation in the next couple of days! #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Really annoyed, BTC is grinding around 83000 again! Current price 83195.6, support at 83000, resistance at 83949. It's been grinding all day, can we get a clear move? But I'm not impulsive, holding a small 5000U position, will short if it breaks 83000, go long if it holds above 83949. Those who lost 200,000U understand the cost of impulsiveness best. No holding losing positions without stop loss, whoever wants to hold can hold, but I won't. Market can grind as it pleases, I have patience. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 This week's non-farm payrolls: does weak data necessarily benefit BTC?
First, note two Beijing times: September 29 at 22:00, US August JOLTS job openings; October 2 at 20:30, September non-farm payroll report. The schedule is from BLS, data not yet released.
I'm more concerned about which market logic will prevail: a mild cooling might strengthen easing expectations; if employment deteriorates significantly, it could initially trigger risk aversion. We can't simply translate "below expectations" as "BTC must rise."
Before the release, keep the same source's expectations; after the release, look simultaneously at employment, unemployment rate, wages, and revisions to previous values, then observe whether the 2-year US Treasury yield, the dollar, and BTC give a consistent reaction. This is an observation framework, not a confirmed market cause-effect.
Do you think BTC fears overheating employment more, or employment slowdown? What data would make you change your judgment? $BTC $ETH $SOL Latest script: First kill leverage, then pump the market
The market has reached this point, and many people can't help but want to enter. $ETH is oscillating around 2650, with 2630 already broken. There will be another short-term drop; the whale long positions are piled up too thick, the chip burden is heavy, making it difficult to directly push up.
Clearing positions lie in ambush below: 8.86 million long orders at 2628–2631, only 1% away from the current price; 3.05 million at 2622; 20.2 million whale long orders hidden at 2613.89. But this is just the appetizer; 2555 is the deep water zone, where Huang Licheng has 95 million USD long orders that need to be tested one by one for shakeout.
This is active deleveraging, not a trend reversal. ETH futures open interest has decreased by 500,000 contracts over four days, leverage has fallen to March lows, ETF continues net inflows, and spot chips have not fled. The script is to sweep all liquidations first, then pump.
Macro is bearish. The Taiwan Strait situation pushes up oil prices, US and Japanese bond yields are at multi-year highs, and the market is still gambling on an October rate hike. QCP assessment: This is large-scale deleveraging, not simple risk hedging or portfolio adjustment.
$BTC broke below 84000, targets 81689 and 78590. ETH broke below the 7-day moving average, support at 2583; if broken, look for 2450-2500.
Place small test orders, do not go all in. Wait for 2613 and 2555 to be tested, and for macro signals to warm up before acting.
Whale positions not released, market can't be pushed; macro not easing, pressure remains. Opportunities come from waiting out #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
Bitcoin rose 43.5% in Q3, reaching $84,626. On the same day, the spot ETF weekly net inflow was 2.386 billion, the highest in nearly a year. Putting these two numbers together, it looks like "ETF bought it up." Let's calculate, it doesn't hold up.
▪️ Bitcoin's market cap rose from 1.16 trillion to 1.68 trillion in Q3, an increase of 519.9 billion. That 2.386 billion only accounts for 0.46%.
▪️ Every 1% increase this quarter corresponds to about 11.95 billion USD market cap growth. The 2.386 billion translates to a 0.2 percentage point increase.
▪️ The ETF's net inflow for the entire quarter is only in the tens of billions range, with the strongest in August at 3.52 billion. This accounts for about 1% of the over 500 billion.
▪️ Others surged even more: Ethereum +71% had the best Q3 ever, XRP +48.1% the strongest in four years. These two are unrelated to the ETF.
The disagreement isn't whether the inflow is the highest in nearly a year, but that the ETF only accounts for a small fraction of the money behind the quarterly rise. It is counted in the denominator but is not the hand pushing the price up.
Over 500 billion, the tens of billions on the exchange can't explain it—whose money is pushing the price up?In trading, the most important thing is not technical analysis, such as Wyckoff or Chan theory.
The most important thing is to cut losses when wrong and hold on when right. These 10 words are the holy grail of trading. But ordinary people stubbornly hold on when wrong and run away after making a small profit when right, ending up losing more than they gain overall.
I now mostly do long-term cycle trading, which is basically investing, and I don't do much short-term trading. But if you really trade, you must hold on to the winning trades, which means you correctly bet on the trend, and holding on yields especially rich profits. Losing trades mean the direction is wrong, so you should cut losses.
It's okay to cut losses multiple times; as long as you bet correctly on a trend once and hold on, you will ultimately make money overall. But this requires extremely high psychological and emotional control from traders, and very few can achieve it.$ETH $DOGE $SUI
Current price: around $2686, slight 24H decline of -0.18%
24H range: $2637–$2715, narrow intraday fluctuations, following BTC correlation, volatility converging.
🔢 Contracts & Funding Data
- Overall network long-short ratio: longs 56.02%, shorts 43.97%, longs dominant but not strongly, sentiment neutral to slightly bullish
- Funding rate: +0.0004%, slightly positive, leveraged longs cost low, no extreme crowding
- 24H total ETH liquidations about $64.12 million, mainly long liquidations ($53.76 million), short-term long washout, no large-scale chain liquidation risk
- Total open interest $34.2 billion, recent slight increase in positions, funds are range trading
📰 News
1. Spot ETH ETF inflows have slowed, institutional funds no longer continuously adding unilaterally, short-term lacks strong incremental bullish catalysts
2. Staking volume remains high, exchange ETH inventory continues to decline, mid-to-long-term supply tight, but short-term unable to drive rapid surge
3. Market core variables still focus on BTC correlation + US stock risk asset volatility, ETH independent rally remains weak
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 【On-Chain Trading Update｜XRP】
Short position detected at address 0xc30c:
▪ Execution price: $1.5
▪ Transaction amount: $1,268,075.7
▪ Leverage: 20x$XDP longs can't be closed no matter how you try, watching the liquidation happen helplesslyBTC takes a breather, altcoins sprint ahead: Today, focus on three pullback levels
BTC hovers around $83,000, while hot money flows into strong altcoins. Today, watch SUI, NEAR, and PUMP, but chasing highs is less advisable than waiting for pullbacks.
SUI is at $1.26, up 8.4% daily. Volume and price are most aligned; $1.20–$1.23 is a support observation zone—if it holds, keep an eye on it; if it breaks above $1.28 again, the next target is $1.35.
NEAR is at $5.37, up 6.7% daily. AI narratives are warming up combined with rotation, with nearly $900 million in volume, outperforming the broader market. $5.15–$5.25 can be used as a pullback zone; only breaking $5.50 will open short-term upside.
PUMP is at $0.00508, up 15.7% daily. The platform uses about half of its daily revenue for buyback and burn, totaling approximately $463 million, a straightforward logic. But with the biggest gains, only small positions are recommended; wait for pullbacks; if it falls below $0.0047, don’t hold on stubbornly.
Right now, the hard part isn’t picking coins, it’s controlling your hands. Buy on pullbacks if given, otherwise just watch. The market won’t lack a tomorrow. The above is for observation only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $SUI $NEAR
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Watching BTC hover around 83195.6, getting closer to the 83000 support, honestly a bit nervous. In the past, at times like this, I would heavily buy the dip, then hold the position, and end up losing 200,000 U. Now it's different, a small 5000 U position, stop loss set properly, if it breaks then I exit. Resistance at 83949, support at 83000, if broken then look at 82561. Never hold a position without a stop loss, these six words saved my life. The road to recovery is long, take it steady. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 WSJ just wrote: Citibank wants to bring stablecoins into its merchant acquiring channels, so large enterprise clients can directly receive stablecoins at checkout; Coinbase will handle the payment track and on-chain infrastructure, automatically converting coins into fiat currency, with Citibank acting as the settlement bank for transactions. Conversely, Coinbase payment clients can also use Citibank's account tools to receive and deposit funds; Incoming cash can also be automatically converted into USD-pegged stablecoins and placed on Coinbase, with an official annualized reward of 3.75%. This wave of bank channels aligns with exchange tracks—hilarious, not like another empty slogan presentation. It's just that the official launch date and the list of the first batch of merchants haven't been released yet—if the channel is open, who goes first?The Clarity Act failed to enter the voting procedure, causing short-term regulatory expectations to cool down directly, and compliance-driven buying is temporarily absent. Monochrome's IEO and the shutdown of several services have no direct capital pull on BTC and do not constitute market drivers. BTC will only fluctuate between 82000 and 84000 in the short term.
On the chart, short-term moving averages are converging, the MACD green bars are shortening and showing signs of a death cross, indicating a clear weakening of rebound momentum. The liquidation chart shows a large accumulation of high-leverage liquidity near 86184. Once this level is swept upwards, it is very easy to see a spike followed by a rapid fall, making it unsuitable for chasing longs.
Just delivered food to the office building, and a collection call came in again, too lazy to answer. Back at the 83426 price, I won’t easily add longs before breaking above 84500.
Entry strategy: On a pullback to 82000 to 82400 with a stop-fall structure, you can lightly try going long, with a stop loss below 81500. The first target is 84000, and after breaking through, take profit near 86000. If the market directly breaks above 84600 with volume and the pullback does not break down, chase the second leg with a target of 86000 to 86500.
Short positions wait for stagnation between 86000 and 86500 before reversing, with a stop loss above 87000 and a target back to 84000. Currently, the long and short forces are balanced but downward pressure is slightly increasing, so positions must be controlled.
$BTC
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
@OKX星球 BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit a nearly one-year high
The boss has something to say
The Trump administration is planning to launch an overseas stablecoin initiative. The Treasury Department, State Department, and DFC may all be involved, aiming to promote the use of dollar stablecoins overseas through government and private sector cooperation. The plan is still under discussion, with cooperating companies and target markets yet to be determined.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is soliciting feedback on the payment stablecoin regulatory framework under the GENIUS Act, and bank stablecoins are beginning to enter actual payment and settlement scenarios.
I believe the core of this matter is not about issuing coins, but an extension of dollar hegemony. The more widespread stablecoins become, the greater the global demand for dollars and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Tether alone holds $114.96 billion in U.S. Treasuries, and as the scale expands, issuers' appetite for short-term U.S. Treasuries will only grow.
This is a long-term positive for the crypto market. The use cases for USDT and USDC are expanding from trading settlements to cross-border payments and overseas dollar circulation, solidifying the underlying demand for stablecoins. However, there is no direct short-term boost to coin prices. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus Big Brother Maji is calling for ETH 3000, now at 2700 still 12% short, can this be trusted?
1. Phenomenon Data
1. $ETH pulled from 2635 to 2698 tonight, once again pushing 2700.
2. $BTC rebounded from 82606 to 83767, the market stabilized simultaneously.
3. $ETH rose 72% in 90 days, already at a high level.
2. Capital Signals
1. Big Brother Maji shouts "ETH love you 3000," sentiment is fully boosted.
2. But Wintermute opened 126 million ETH short positions on Hyperliquid, market makers are shorting.
3. ETF funds dropped from 999 million to 191 million, institutional buying slowed down.
3. Risk Warning
1. 2700 has failed to break three times, short-term pressure is obvious.
2. This week’s CPI plus meeting minutes, macro uncertainty is high. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC财库优先股融资升温 #ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 APP gapped up to about 322 in early trading, then dropped back to about 312 after more than an hour, halving its value for the year—don’t mistake the gap for a reversal.
Closed around 310.75 on Friday, opened about 322.7 this morning, intraday low hit about 308.3, current price about 312.6; this bullish candle has almost completely given back its gains.
It has halved from about 618 to about 312 this year, dropping nearly half; the current price is still below the 50-day moving average at about 341, and far from the 52-week high of about 745.
TTD in the same sector fell about 2% today, MGNI about 1.5%, neither keeping up with this gap up, more like an emotional rebound rather than sector-wide resonance.
I think: a gap up after selling pressure exhaustion is easily mistaken for a bottom-fishing gift, but with the shadows of AI delays and class-action lawsuits still hanging, short-term chasing the rally is not in your favor.
I’ll keep only an observation position for now, not chasing this move; invalidation would be a volume-backed break above the 50-day line at about 341, or a further drop below the yearly low near 297.5.
Do you think this is a bottom-building rebound, or a dead-cat bounce after a halving? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $TTD $MGNI $APP $BTC is repeating a pattern we've seen before.
Losing the weekly 200 EMA, building a base, and now reclaiming it.
The same type of structure we saw when breaking out from the 2022 bottom.
If $69K continues to hold as support, I will consider this another major cycle transition phase.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh The demand from those willing to pay Gas and those willing to buy ETH are two different needs.
An on-chain operation requires resource costs, but users preparing a small amount of $ETH to complete a task is not the same scale or cycle of demand as investors holding ETH long-term. Mixing the two can lead to overestimating the immediate impact of application growth on spot prices and ignoring other uses of the asset.
Transaction demand can be paid by the application or reduced through fund management to avoid repeated coin purchases. Long-term holdings focus more on security, liquidity, supply mechanisms, and holding costs. There are also staking, collateral, and other demands that place ETH into different economic relationships. Analyzing price requires understanding these different channels.
This makes me more willing to look for evidence of multiple demands improving together. Growth in one use case may only bring a small marginal coin purchase; if settlement activity, collateral use, and long-term holdings all strengthen together, the supply-demand structure is more likely to undergo lasting change. Even so, one must face profit-taking, issuance, and changes in market risk appetite.
My optimism for ETH has never required framing every transfer as investor entry. The network’s job is to provide useful services, and asset pricing is completed by various buyers and sellers together. Clarifying these two layers allows for more patient observation of real growth. A long-term view is not afraid of complex transmission processes but fears reducing complexity to a simple "must rise" statement, then lacking verifiable evidence when the market moves the other way.$BTC is showing that institutional money remains the pillar as the spot ETF attracted about 2.39 billion USD during the week of 9/21–9/25. However, the price has retreated from the 87K range to around 83K, indicating short-term profit-taking pressure. For $SOL, the ETF attracted about 188 million USD, setting a weekly record, showing that capital is expanding into high-beta assets. The scenario to watch: if $BTC holds the base, money may continue to rotate into $SOL; if BTC loses support, altcoins are likely to face strong selling pressure. Priority is to observe price, volume, and ETF before taking action Dull knife cutting flesh! Retail investors catch flying knives, why does the main force delay the rally?
1. Market Status: Trend Break, Volume-less Decline
① Both the 4-hour BTC and ETH charts have broken key trend lines, showing a technical breakdown and downward trend, with the market extremely weak.
② Active buy and sell volumes have shrunk drastically, trading volume is like dead water with slight ripples, volume-less decline is most tormenting, a typical dull knife cutting flesh.
2. Capital Game: Leverage Retreat, Retail Investors Catch Flying Knives Against the Trend
① Open interest has been continuously falling from highs, funding rates are close to zero, previous long leverage has basically cleared out, the market is entering the final stage of deflation.
② Danger signals emerge: the long-short ratio rises instead of falling during the decline, retail long positions continue to increase. This means retail investors are bottom-fishing against the trend, catching flying knives, and the main force will not give up easily, most likely using a final drop to break retail investors' psychological defenses.
3. Macro Concerns: Liquidity Crisis and Delayed Rate Cuts
① US Treasury yields remain high, macro liquidity is extremely scarce, risk-free rates suppress risk asset valuations.
② Without incremental funds, the market can only rely on brutal stock competition to clear floating chips, any rebound is easily stifled.
Core Summary:
The market is undergoing the darkest and most brutal washout. Institutions are watching, whales are selling, retail investors are blindly bottom-fishing. Under volume-less decline, do not try to guess the exact bottom. Be sure to put away greedy bottom-fishing, keep light positions, and respect the market. Endure this period of liquidity drought and emotional freezing point; when the main force completes the final chip cleansing, that will be the true breakout moment.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
The overall trend favors bears, don't be fooled by small rebounds! Short at 4150, stop at 4139, 11 points! Luodai 3200 dollars! $SOL /USDT 1H bearish retest
SOL is trading under MA5, MA10 and MA20 after losing the 120 area. Immediate support sits at 118.74, so the better risk comes from waiting for price to retest broken structure.
Entry: 119.20–119.80 short
SL: 120.70
TP1: 118.74
TP2: 118.14
TP3: 117.30
The bearish view fails if SOL firmly reclaims 120.64.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus US stocks lead the decline, Bitcoin begins correction
Futures of the three major US stock indices collectively weaken, with the tech sector leading the risk asset sell-off. After completing a five-wave rise technically, BTC has entered a correction phase. Some market views target this round of adjustment toward $76,000. This week, the PCE price index and non-farm payroll data are about to be released, and macro data will directly influence the short-term market trend.
💬 Can Bitcoin hold the $80,000 level?
Two scenarios analyzed from the chart:
✅ Conditions to hold $80,000
US stock risk appetite recovers, PCE and non-farm data are moderate, rate cut expectations remain; meanwhile, spot buying and ETF inflows continue, with strong chip support near $80,000, making the correction a healthy consolidation during the uptrend.
⚠️ Risk of breaking below $80,000
If inflation data exceeds expectations and US Treasury yields rise again, risk assets will continue to be pressured. Once the psychological $80,000 level is lost, a large amount of leveraged positions will trigger liquidations, pushing the correction closer to the $76,000 target.
Key point: $80,000 is not just a numeric threshold but also a psychological cost line for many market participants. Whether it can ultimately hold depends not on technical wave patterns but on macro data and the strength of real buying support.
Reminder: The market has two-way uncertainty; do not bet prematurely on a single outcome. Wait for data release and market signals before responding $BTC 6 billion shorts vs 2.6 billion longs, where is $BTC BTC really headed?
Just looked at the Bitcoin $BTC liquidation map, in this chart, two lines are fighting: Red line: cumulative long liquidation intensity.
Starting from 83,442, climbing all the way to the left side, it has accumulated over 2.6 billion USD on the far left. This means if the price drops, a large wave of longs will be liquidated.
Green line: cumulative short liquidation intensity. Starting from 83,442, climbing all the way up to the right side, it has piled up over 6 billion.
This means if the price goes up, there is a large group of shorts waiting to be liquidated above.
Key positions: look at those dense bars, high leverage positions are mainly concentrated in the 82,500 and 85,000-88,000 ranges.
Longs and shorts have each heavily positioned at the upper and lower levels. Are you bullish or bearish now? #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 上周美国现货 BTC ETF 继续吸引机构资金，周度净流入约 23.86亿美元，创下2025年10月以来单周较高水平，连续多日维持资金净流入。 不过，资金热度并不是一路加速。近期单日净流入已经从接近 10亿美元 回落至约 1.3亿美元，说明短线追涨情绪有所降温。 📰 市场观察： 不要简单理解成“机构资金正在从 BTC 撤出、转向山寨币”。 更值得关注的逻辑是：BTC 在第三季度累计上涨约 43% 后进入高位震荡，一部分短线资金可能开始寻找波动率更高、弹性更强的资产。 真正能够确认“山寨轮动”的信号，仍然需要看到： 成交量放大 + 价格抗跌 + 放量突破关键阻力位 只有这几个条件逐渐同时出现，才能说明资金扩散的迹象更加明显。 🐕 $DOGE 现价参考：$0.091 阻力：$0.094–0.097 突破后关注：$0.100–0.102 支撑：$0.088–0.089 跌破后关注：$0.085 💧 $SUI 现价参考：$1.20 阻力：$1.24–1.27 突破后关注：$1.30 支撑：$1.16–1.17 跌破后关注：$1.11–1.12 🌍 $WLD 现价参考：$0.52 阻力：Metaplanet hasn't bought for eleven weeks, while Strategy dumped 143 million in one week.
Some think this is institutions bottom-fishing together. I've fallen into the same trap before; it looks like bottom-fishing, but it's actually a dollar-cost averaging machine running on schedule.
First, what others think: net buying up 30.4% means big money still accepts this price. $BTC above 85,000, they buy more steadily than anyone else.
Now, my take: Strategy alone accounts for 60%, the other three just fill in the numbers. This isn't institutional consensus; it's clearly a one-man show.
Metaplanet stopping for eleven weeks is the real signal. Not buying—are they out of money or just afraid?
I want to ask people in the circle, who exactly is taking the baton this round? Anyway, I'm still holding my position, like a guaranteed livelihood.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 $BTC As expected, with the US-Iran situation and rising US Treasury yields, the stock market won't surge dramatically, nor will it crash. However, it will quietly decline due to panic and lack of market trust! $ZEC $BCH: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 315-318 range (near MA5) and then enter short.
· The target is first 304.4 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at 298-300. Set stop loss above 322 (near MA10).
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 4-hour level, MA5 (315.1), MA10 (325.7), and MA20 (331.4) diverge downward, with price running below all three lines, forming layered resistance above.
2. Pattern breakdown downward: After a sharp decline from the high of 366.0, the price consecutively broke through the 320 and 310 levels, currently approaching the 24-hour low of 304.4, within a typical downtrend channel, with bulls unable to reverse.
3. Indicator and volume coordination: Price runs along the lower Bollinger Band (309.5), the middle band slopes downward, and the decline phase is accompanied by increased volume, indicating full dominance of bearish momentum, making shorting with the trend the best risk-reward.
#OpenAI与Anthropic调查数万起AI安全事件 50x short position held for 5 days, why can't the bearish news push the price down?
I held a 50x BTC short position stubbornly for 5 days, feeling anxious every day. This is not trading at all, it's mental torture! Why does the price refuse to drop despite all the bearish news?
1️⃣ Bearish news priced in early: The bill failed, interest rate hikes are in place, the market has already digested this, so there's nowhere left to fall.
2️⃣ Institutions are aggressively buying: ETFs have seen nearly 3 billion net inflow consecutively, giants like Strategy hold over 840,000 coins, and all the panic-selling retail chips have been absorbed by the main players.
3️⃣ Shorts are extremely crowded: Exchange balances have dropped to a historic low of 2.7 million coins, exhausting the chips for dumping. Meanwhile, many shorts are stubbornly holding, funding rates are negative. Once a key resistance is broken, the forced buybacks from short covering will trigger a terrifying short squeeze, which the main players love to hunt down stubborn shorts.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 ⚠️ Whale Position Movement｜ETH Longs + New BTC Shorts
A certain whale's ETH longs currently have an unrealized profit of $14.06 million. This address opened 650 new BTC short positions today, with an unrealized profit of $950,000.
💬 Possible next steps for the whale's strategy breakdown
1. Priority on reducing positions to realize profits: The ETH longs have already accumulated unrealized profits in the tens of millions. The most common action is to take profits in batches at highs to lock in gains, rather than closing all positions at once to avoid damaging their own holdings.
2. BTC shorts serve as hedge protection: These BTC shorts are more likely not purely bearish on BTC but are used to hedge against systemic correction risks in the overall crypto portfolio. This is portfolio hedging and does not mean the whale expects a crash.
3. Two scenario analyses
✅ If the market continues to rise: ETH longs will be held to increase profits, and BTC shorts will have stop-losses set to exit, closing the hedge positions.
⚠️ If the market pulls back: ETH longs will gradually take profits, and BTC shorts can continue to amplify gains to offset losses on the longs.
Key reminder: The whale's positions and trading actions only represent their personal strategy and do not guarantee the market will follow their direction. Whales also cut losses and miss opportunities, so do not blindly copy their trades. BTC at 83K after rejection at $85K. Macro is the driver: Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz plan → oil above $93 → 10Y yield above 5%.
2,650. 121 holding.
Top movers:
• $QNT +88% (UK Finance tokenized deposit trial with Barclays, HSBC)
• $NEAR +30% (ETF news)
• $BCH +34% (CME futures)
Narratives:
• RWA & tokenization leading (+4.24%)
• Privacy/ZK back in focus (ZEC up 750% from lows)
• AI & DePIN (WLD)
• Memes: BNB Chain most active, $e/acc leading on Solana
$330M liquidations, mostly longs. I have hardly ever held a coin for the long term before.
This time, I want to try a different approach.
After this round of $ZEC rallying, it has started to show obvious volatility, and I’m actually less inclined to chase it. Rather than guessing the top, I prefer to wait for a pullback to see if there is support around $1,300, $1,150, or even $1,000.
The story of ZEC is far from over.
Grayscale’s Zcash ETF $ZCSH asset size is approaching or even surpassing $1 billion; meanwhile, the 3:1 split plan will officially trade at the post-split price on September 30. It’s important to note that the split itself will not change the total asset value held by investors.
What’s more interesting is that during the market pullback on September 28, a large holder increased their long position by about 8,017 ZEC, bringing their total holdings to approximately 18,400 ZEC.
So this time, I don’t want to FOMO.
At $1,300, I’m watching for support,
at $1,150, I’m watching the structure,
at $1,000, I’m watching whether the long-term logic is broken.
If it really falls back below $1,000, I’d rather first observe the fundamentals, capital flow, and market sentiment instead of rushing to sell just because the price is red.
This is my first serious attempt to hold a coin long term.
Not chasing the peak, not fearing pullbacks, slowly watching where it can ultimately go.
$ZEC
For personal opinion only, not investment advice, DYOR.$SNDK Short immediately! Look at the long positions, a heavy holding of 83.55 million U, current price 1692, which is pitifully only 3 dollars higher than the average cost of 1688.89.
With such a huge amount of capital, the unrealized profit is less than half a percent. Even worse, only 25% of the bulls are barely in the green, while the rest are underwater and taking hits. The entire 83 million plus U market barely squeezes out a meager 157,300 U in unrealized profit.
This is not making gains; it's like walking a tightrope on the edge of a cliff. As soon as the market moves down even slightly, this tiny paper profit will instantly turn into a total loss for everyone. I've already heavily shorted this position; the bulls' defense line could collapse at any moment!Publicly listed companies have started borrowing stocks to buy $SOL,
Crypto Treasury may be becoming a new channel for institutional entry.
This time, Forward Industries' approach is very interesting:
The company directly issued 3.125 million shares, raising about $25 million, then used this money to continue buying SOL.
And this is not the first time.
As of September 21, Forward already holds about 8.16 million SOL and equivalent assets.
Now there is a very interesting financial closed loop:
Institutions buy company stock → Company raises funds → Company buys SOL → SOL price rises → Company asset size expands → Market continues to finance the company.
This is essentially the crypto version of "balance sheet expansion."
In the past, institutions wanting to buy BTC, ETH, SOL mainly relied on ETFs or direct coin purchases.
Now there is an additional path:
Instead of buying coins directly, buy a publicly listed company that puts coins on its balance sheet.
BTC has MicroStrategy, and ETH, SOL are now starting to show similar models.
If more and more listed companies convert financing funds into BTC, ETH, SOL in the future, traditional capital market money can indirectly flow into crypto through the balance sheets of listed companies.
If this model continues to spread, the next real big capital entry might not just be ETFs
but increasingly the balance sheets of publicly listed companies #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Understanding Cathie Wood's Bottom-Fishing Logic! Why Does ARKK Buy More Bitcoin as It Drops?
Cathie Wood did not chase the highs in this cycle but instead kept increasing her positions during the crypto market pullback. This strategy is worth analyzing.
Bitcoin is the core holding of ARKK. As BTC fell from its peak, she continuously increased her indirect exposure by buying more crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Block, turning unrealized losses into lower-cost chips, retaining the base positions to avoid missing out on future rebounds.
She did not reduce positions in Ethereum-related assets, indicating she remains optimistic about the long-term value of the ETH ecosystem; some small-cap altcoin-related stocks hold small positions, serving as flexible slots in the portfolio to capture excess returns from a crypto ecosystem breakout.
This combination strategy of “buying more as core positions fall + retaining base positions + small flexible positions for speculation” is a classic approach for long-term value investors. The advantage is that during downturns, it can lower the average cost and avoid the risk of missing subsequent bull markets. The downside is the high concentration of holdings; even after adding some positions, the remaining holdings may still struggle to withstand prolonged market downturns.
Cathie Wood’s trading strategy aligns with her long-term investment philosophy. Ordinary traders should not directly copy the bottom-fishing approach of buying more as prices fall. BTC ETH $COINThat’s not what a structure shift means. A structure shift simply means the previous bearish trend has been broken. It tells us that Bitcoin is no longer following the same bear market structure. It doesn’t mean price has to immediately break out and make a new ATH. Look at the previous cycles. In 2022, after Bitcoin shifted its structure, BTC ranged around that area for roughly 203 days on the weekly timeframe. And in the 2018–2019 cycle, after Bitcoin broke its bear market structure, it stayedRisk Warning! ZEC bulls hold huge unrealized profits and may dump at any time
$ZEC decisively short!
Seeing bulls holding 123 million U in huge unrealized profits, are you tempted to chase the long and get on board? You must calmly weigh your own chips.
The old bulls' base cost is around 1087, with a huge gap of several hundred points from the current price, which is their indestructible safety cushion.
These people hold substantial profits and can easily dump to cash out; but those who chase in now will lose real principal if the market pulls back even slightly.
Many think they are following the trend to buy, unaware that the old bulls are worried about not finding funds to take over their profits of over 100 million. Don't become a tool for low-cost old bulls to cash out!
I have already entered a heavy short position; the rest is up to you to manage.
$ZEC $TRX
Where does TRX's defensive attribute come from amid strong stablecoin settlement demand?
High-frequency transfers and a large stablecoin scale bring real usage, making revenue relatively insensitive to market sentiment. If settlement volume and fees remain stable, the cash flow logic still holds.
If regulatory restrictions affect circulation, or fee increases cause user migration, I will reassess.