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⚠️ Risk appetite cools down, mainstream coins enter a critical short-term defense zone
🔴 Short-term risks
Expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire fall through, 10-year US Treasury yield rises near 5%, risk assets under pressure, BTC and gold weaken simultaneously. BTC around 83.5K, short-term weakness after breaking below 84,020 on 4H chart, key level at 82,563, if broken then watch 80,126.
🟡 Key observations
ETH oscillates around 2690, core range 2636–2721, watch for breakout direction first. SOL around $119, 117.26 is an important defense level, resistance at 121–122.93 above. UNI relatively weak short-term, 8.58 is key support, rebound focus on 9.03–9.48.
🟢 Opportunity observations
Gold currently around 4111, important observation near 4110, resistance forms at 4245–4260 above. Overall, daily structure is not yet fully broken, but 4H chart shows clear weakness. Going forward, don’t just watch a single candlestick, but observe if key levels hold and if breakouts are supported by volume.
📌 Key points:
Macro pressure remains, short-term risk defense first.
Watch for support holding before considering rebound, watch for resistance break before continuation.
Do not chase highs or sell lows, waiting for confirmation is more important than guessing direction early.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 "Wait for confirmation, don't rush to jump in"
BTC is still hovering above 83300, after surging to 84557 yesterday and then being pushed back. The 15-minute short moving averages are densely packed between 83339 and 83465, with the price suppressed below them, and the MACD hasn't turned positive. The first resistance to watch is 83465; only after stabilizing above it should we consider 83700 and 84000; 85000 is unrealistic for now. On the downside, 83200 is the short-term defense line; if lost, look at 82900, and breaking 82556 will face further tests. Those chasing highs are probably having a hard time now.
ETH retreated to 2675 after hitting 2748, with moving averages clustered around 2673, showing weak recovery strength. If it can't hold 2680, continue to wait and see; only breaking above 2700 will show improvement, while falling below 2668 targets 2656.
SOL is consolidating near 119.46, with moving averages concentrated between 119.3 and 119.5. A breakout above 120 could test 121.67; if 118.75 is lost, the probability of a pullback to 117 increases. It either stays silent or suddenly surges in volume.
Currently out of position, not rushing to go long. Having just experienced a double whammy of bulls and bears, chasing rallies and selling dips risks being harvested again. Wait for BTC to reclaim 83465, then see if ETH follows; if SOL breaks 120 first, just track it and prefer to wait until confirmed.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 According to market data, a whale known as "Big Brother Maji" recently expanded his long positions in perpetual contracts to about $165 million, taking long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL, with basically no significant hedging. Compared to the previous position size of about $102 million, this is a clear increase in capital exposure. His position distribution remains very clear: 🔹 BTC: as the base position, responsible for stabilizing the overall portfolio 🔹 ETH: core heavy position, with the highest capital allocation 🔹 SOL: high volatility, high elasticity offensive position But the problem is also very obvious—the directions of the three assets are highly consistent. When BTC rises, ETH and SOL often benefit simultaneously; but if the market suddenly weakens, it also means that all three positions may be pressured at the same time, rapidly amplifying portfolio risk. This timing is especially sensitive. The market is entering a period dense with macro data such as PCE, non-farm payrolls, and Federal Reserve officials' speeches. Inflation data, employment data, and rate cut expectations may all again influence U.S. Treasury yields and risk asset pricing. If the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to strengthen, the rebound potential of the crypto market may be limited; conversely, if macro data alleviates market concerns about tightening policies, BTC, ETH, and SOL may regain capital momentum. The whale's greatest advantage is capital depth. Facing short-term pullbacks, he can choose to add margin, adjust positions, or even wait for the market to return to a favorable direction. But ordinary traders do not have the same capital buffer. So what is truly worth paying attention toXAU's spike to 4282 yesterday, no one dares to chase it today.
Yesterday's low was 4119, the high touched 4176, closing at 4157. Today opened at 4159, the high reached 4200, the low was 4146, current price around 4185. Volume has shrunk.
Resistance remains between 4200–4282. If it breaks below 4146, it’s likely to first see 4119, and if that breaks, then 4111.
In the short term, watch if 4180 can hold. If it doesn’t hold, treat it as a rebound digestion and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 4146 can support; if it can’t, consider reducing positions. $XAU SNDK yesterday had a spike up to 1693, and before the market opened, no one dared to push it higher.
Yesterday's low was 1693, the high touched 1749.78 but didn't break through, closing at 1729.76. This morning it opened around 1723, current price about 1726. Volume ratio slightly shrank compared to the previous day.
Resistance remains between 1749–1762. If it breaks below 1693 again, it’s likely to first see 1659.
In the short term, watch if 1729 can hold. If it can’t hold, treat it as a pullback after a rally and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 1693 can support; if it can’t, consider reducing your position. $SNDK Pinning up and down, the candlestick is like a meat grinder!!!
$BTC dropped from 83,500 to 82,600, then bounced back to 84,000.
$SOL bounced back and forth between 118 and 123.
$DOGE was the wildest, falling from 0.095 to 0.089, then pulling back to 0.093.
The bulls just started to laugh, then got buried.
The bears just relaxed, then got swept out.
Positions with over fifty times leverage basically all became fuel.
I checked my own trades.
BTC shorted at 83,800 yesterday, closed at 83,500, made a breakfast profit.
SOL shorted at 121 at midnight, closed at 119, made a little extra.
Tossed and turned all night, made a total of 12U.
Heavy positions dare not touch, light positions can't hold long.
Watching this double kill, so many people got carried away directly.
Used to think liquidation was someone else's story.
Now looking at these pins, only a chill down the spine remains.
If you didn't get liquidated, consider it a win.
This market is made to punish all kinds of defiance.Recently, ETH has basically been locked in the $2,640–$2,730 range with repeated tug-of-war, and $2,700 has become a key watershed multiple times. Every time the price tries to stand above $2,700, it encounters obvious selling pressure. Today it once surged to $2,748, then quickly fell back, which also indicates that the willingness of funds to cash out above remains strong. 📌 Short-term key focus: - Support level: $2,640–$2,650 This is a position that has been supported multiple times recently. As long as it is not effectively broken down here, ETH is very likely to continue to oscillate within the range. - Resistance level: $2,720–$2,760 Only a volume breakout and stable stand above $2,760 can the short-term structure possibly strengthen further; otherwise, after a high surge, it is still easy to return to the oscillation range. - Funding risk: Recently, the exchange's ETH balance increased by about 118,000 coins, with some chips flowing back into trading platforms, which may mean some holders are taking profits. If the net inflow to exchanges continues to increase, beware of further expansion of selling pressure above. Additionally, the market is also paying attention to Micron's earnings report; the AI industry chain's demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) and storage chips remains a market focus. The performance of tech stocks and the AI sector may further influence the crypto market through risk appetite. Summary: ETH currently seems to be seeking support near $2,650 and bearing selling pressure above $2,720. In the short term, watch the direction of the range breakout first; before volume increases, it is not advisable to misinterpret the oscillation asZEC yesterday had that long bearish candle down to 1355, and today on the rebound no one dares to increase volume.
Yesterday's low was 1355.67, the high touched 1546.66 but didn't break through, closing at 1391.55. Today opened at 1391, the high was 1436.15, the low 1381.01, current price around 1427. Volume has shrunk.
The range 1436–1546 above is still resistance. Below, if 1381 breaks again, it's easy to see 1355 first.
In the short term, watch if 1391 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a rebound after a sharp drop to digest, don't chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if 1381 can support; if it can't, reduce your position a bit. $ZEC Many people's trading plans are made up on the spot after losses—they originally didn't have a clear stop-loss point, and only after being trapped do they find a reason to convince themselves to wait a bit longer.
A real plan should have the entry reason, stop-loss point, and take-profit point fixed at the moment of placing the order, and it must be written before opening the position; anything written after opening is a defense, not a plan.
You are clearest before opening a position; after opening, you already have a position, and the position will speak—it will find excuses for losses.
Is the stop-loss point in your mind now set before opening the position, or just thought up after seeing the floating loss?2737 is the real issue $ETH needs to solve today
As of the evening of September 30, $ETH's 24-hour high was about $2737. This level is more significant than the 2700 round number because it represents how far the buying pushed today and also where the selling pressure pushed the price back down.
If the price only briefly pierces 2737 without expanding volume and quickly falls back below 2700, it looks more like a liquidity test. Only if it breaks through and holds, and does not easily lose ground on a pullback, does it indicate that the selling pressure above is being continuously absorbed by buyers.
Only after holding above 2737 can the market reasonably reconsider previous highs; if it cannot hold, the current structure remains a range between 2664 and 2737.
Many losses are not due to wrong directional calls but because expectations were treated as facts before confirmation. If $ETH wants to start a new upward phase, don’t rush to talk about farther targets—first dismantle this immediate wall of selling pressure.Today's Key Macro Events
Time Event Expected Value Potential Impact
Tonight 20:30 US August Core PCE Inflation YoY 3.3%, MoM 0.3% The most important event this week; if higher than expected, it will strengthen bets on a rate hike in October
Tonight US August Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer spending remains strong Persistent inflation + strong consumption = Fed unlikely to pause rate hikes
Friday September Nonfarm Payrolls Approx. +83,000 If significantly above expectations → further pressure on risk assets
Special Note: Before the PCE data release, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will adjust historical data since 2021, possibly lowering July PCE YoY by 0.2-0.3 percentage points. However, Goldman Sachs expects that inflation data in the next month or two may be "slightly unfavorable." The historical data revision is a "rearview mirror" and may not change future trends. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 ⚡️ Around the 9.30 evening PCE release: BTC/ETH/SOL trading script
Data is about to be released; avoid spikes before the release, follow the trend after.
🟠 $BTC (83,778)
Before data: oscillate between 83k-84.5k, mostly bullish but cautious.
After data: hold above 84,500 to target 85,500; break below 83,000 to target 82,000 bearish.
🔵 $ETH (2,695)
Before data: linked oscillation, watch 2650-2750.
After data: break above 2,750 to target 2,800; break below 2,650 to target 2,600 (key defense).
🟣 $SOL (119.75)
Before data: pullback to 117, light position entry.
After data: hold above 123 to target 126; break below 115 exit.
⚠️ Key reminders:
1. Decrease leverage before release to avoid liquidation.
2. Wait for candle close after release before entering to avoid fakeouts.
3. Watch BTC 83,000 and ETH 2,650 closely; strict stop loss on break.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #PCE
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $BTC $ETH Tonight finally brings a real excuse for the market to change its trend!
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US August PCE inflation data will be released.
This data is very critical because the market is re-evaluating the Fed's next rate hike expectations.
Current market expectations:
PCE year-on-year: 3.7%
Core PCE year-on-year: 3.3%
Month-on-month about: 0.3%
So the question is—will this PCE be good news?
To be honest, I won’t be optimistic in advance.
On one hand, overall energy prices in August were relatively high, which could indeed put pressure on the overall PCE; but note that core PCE excludes energy and food, so rising oil prices don’t necessarily mean core PCE will rise sharply.
Moreover, there is a special factor in tonight’s data: the US statistical department has adjusted some price calculation methods, which may cause some PCE readings to be revised downward.
So what really matters tonight is not "whether PCE is high or not," but:
Actual data vs. market expectations.
If it meets expectations, the market may interpret it as "inflation temporarily controllable," which could be a short-term relief for BTC and ETH.
If it is significantly higher than expected, then trouble arises—
Rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields rise → US dollar strengthens → risk assets come under pressure.
Conversely, if it is significantly lower than expected, especially if core PCE cools down, the market may reprice rate cut or pause rate hike expectations #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 SOXL is trash! Dog market maker, you are really damn useless! The whole internet is shouting AI has peaked, but you with your triple leverage keep surging up. When you pulled the price to 123, I still had some hope, thinking you might soften, but you damn well turned around and pushed it to 145? Do you even know how to play? Why am I getting closer and closer to my liquidation line?
Looking at the 10x leverage short position in the chart, my hands are shaking. Drop it fast, damn! I really feel like I can't hold on anymore, the unrealized gains have long disappeared, now it's all huge unrealized losses. I was ready to take profits and run, but now, thanks to you dog market maker, I'm being crushed on the ground crazily. If the US stock market opens with a big gap up again, won't it just bury me alive?!
Dog market maker is really trash, can you learn from Nvidia? Look at their resilience to drops, then look at you. The whole internet is shouting AI bubble, but you SOXL are as stubborn as a bull, the short squeeze is making my position's unrealized losses grow, and the more it rises, the more anxious I get!
With the current market, is this wave really a short squeeze or a real reversal? #SOXL single-day surge 7% #Philadelphia Semiconductor Index strong rebound #Triple leveraged semiconductor ETF #AI chip demand still strong #Holding unrealized losses can't hold on. Can someone tell me, is it still time to cut losses now? $SOXL I hate you!Pump.fun is generating about $16M in 7-day revenue, while cumulative PUMP buybacks have reached roughly $463.5M, removing about 16.8% of the original supply. Meanwhile, a whale opened a $5.26M leveraged long.
$PUMP is near $0.00577, +~15%, after touching $0.00603 today.
Three engines. One very crowded trade.
The market data are unusually strong today’s OKX high is $0.006029. The $5.26M whale position, ~$16M seven-day protocol revenue and ~$463.5M cumulative buybacks are independently reported$MOVR's most dangerous misconception right now is equating "strong trend" directly with "continuing to chase is safe."
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are biased strong, with RSI reaching 71 and 85 respectively. The strength hasn't disappeared, but the sentiment is already crowded; at this point, what's truly important is not guessing the highest point, but seeing if the high-level support can quickly recover from any pullback.
Current price is 1.655, about 38.19% away from the 1-hour support at 1.023, and about 24.47% from resistance at 2.06. Here, what’s lacking is not directional speculation, but the sustainability after the price truly breaks through these boundaries.
My observation line is very clear: only by standing back above and holding 2.06 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 1.023, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.932. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 2.06 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Do you think this is normal overheating within a strong trend, or is the risk already greater than the remaining upside?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.ETH's recent trend has indeed been somewhat uninspiring. The price has been oscillating repeatedly around $2,640–$2,690, occasionally surging but quickly pushed back by selling pressure, with bulls not showing clear sustained momentum for now. Previously, the market kept talking about "ETH will be re-priced," "the ecosystem gradually recovering," and "funds flowing back," leading many to have expectations for the future. But the reality is that ETH is still stuck near $2,600, with limited rebound strength and often quicker pullbacks. 🐶 It now seems more like funds are waiting for a direction rather than actively choosing one. Notably, tonight's US August PCE inflation data is about to be released. The market currently expects overall PCE year-over-year at about 3.7%, core PCE around 3.3%–3.4%; meanwhile, the market's expectation for a Fed rate hike in October has dropped significantly from over 70% to about 43%. This means tonight's data could be an important trigger for short-term volatility: 📌 PCE below expectations → reduces rate hike pressure, risk assets may get some breathing room 📌 PCE meets expectations → market may continue to oscillate awaiting subsequent data like non-farm payrolls 📌 PCE significantly above expectations → renewed rate pressure, ETH may test lower support again 📌 ETH is currently around $2,680, with $2,800 still the key resistance above, and about $2,550 an important support level below. So the current ETHI've started short-term shorting again. Here's my view: Regarding this round of BTC decline, I'm more focused not on technical indicators but on today's US release of ADP employment and PCE inflation data. The market currently expects about 70,000 new ADP jobs in September, compared to 38,000 in August, with core PCE expected at 3.3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.
There is a key contradiction in this data set: if employment accelerates again while core inflation remains above 3%, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to quickly shift to easing. The US 10-year Treasury yield is already at a multi-year high, and the dollar index has strengthened again. Market pricing for an October rate hike remains highly volatile.
For BTC, what really matters is not the four words "whether there will be a rate cut," but whether global liquidity is expanding again.
If ADP beats expectations and PCE is higher than expected, the market will reprice for "higher for longer," pushing the dollar and Treasury yields up and putting pressure on risk asset valuations. As a high-beta risk asset, BTC will find it hard to stand apart from this environment.
So I am holding short positions again now. The data is not to predict a number but to observe the direction of liquidity. As long as the dollar, yields, and inflation expectations continue to rise, BTC rebounds are opportunities for me to look for shorting points.When I saw that string of numbers, the coffee in my hand suddenly lost its appeal. An account has leveraged up to 22x, with available margin at zero—would you dare to follow its rhythm? Maji currently holds four long positions, with a nominal value of about $148 million. BTC 360 coins, 40x leverage, opened near 83748, liquidation price 74100; ETH 36100 coins, 25x leverage, opened at 2674, liquidation price 2579, this is the largest position, close to $100 million; HYPE 186,000 coins, 10x leverage, floating loss already 960,000, the most painful among the four; PUMP 1 billion coins, 10x leverage, liquidation price 0.0023336. I stared at the ETH column for a long time. The liquidation line is too close to the current price, as close as a string stretched to its limit. In this structure, the market is fundamentally trading not direction but volatility itself. As long as a downward poke hits, forced liquidation will feed itself, creating a chain squeeze. At this time, the funding rate is often positive, with longs still paying to hold positions, indicating that the crowding hasn't eased and the fragile points haven't been repaired. A bullish path certainly exists. All four positions are long, which means the belief is pinned on a rebound. Once BTC and ETH rise together, this full-leverage elasticity will be extremely exaggerated, short covering will accelerate, and altcoin sentiment will also warm up. ETH, as the largest exposure, basically determines the breathing rhythm of this set of positions. But the other side is even more worth watching. Available margin is zero, meaning there is no buffer; any deep dip canRobinhood's Summit is essentially a positioning declaration: it no longer wants to be seen as a "commission-free stock app," but rather to become an all-day active trading gateway.
The path is clear — to pile high-turnover products like prediction markets, perpetual contracts, and crypto into the same account, driving up both user trading frequency and per-user value.
For brokers, commission-free is just a customer acquisition tactic; the real profit comes from users becoming more active.
Whether this logic holds depends not on the number of new accounts opened, but on whether ARPU can continue to rise.
Investors should also pay attention here: as activity increases, drawdowns will be more severe during down cycles.Geopolitical games as the core driver, combined with supply constraints and low inventory levels, lead to oil price increases that transmit top-down along the crude oil industry chain; the essence of this trade is the realization of geopolitical risk premium, and once geopolitical tensions ease, the entire logic collapses.
1. Macro & Geopolitical Underlying Logic (Your core premise: Energy as a tool for great power games)
1. Energy is the lifeblood of modern economies, and crude oil prices serve as an indirect weapon to strike target countries. The U.S. has ample domestic shale oil capacity; high oil prices benefit U.S. oil and gas companies and energy exports. In contrast, countries heavily dependent on oil imports see their foreign exchange reserves continuously drained by high energy expenditures, putting fiscal pressure on them. This is the underlying motive of the game.
2. Middle East supply-side risks: The Strait of Hormuz handles about 30% of global crude oil maritime transport. Geopolitical frictions cause shipping insurance to soar, tankers to detour, and expectations of export interruptions. The market prices in risk premiums in advance; oil prices may rise even without actual supply cuts, as long as conflict escalation expectations heat up.
3. OPEC+ proactive production cuts to support prices: Continuously implementing production cut quotas, deliberately compressing supply elasticity, and maintaining globally tight crude oil inventories. When geopolitical shocks occur, there is no excess idle inventory to quickly stabilize prices, amplifying the extent of oil price increases.
4. U.S. variables: U.S. shale oil capital expenditures have been restrained long-term, and the speed of new capacity release is slow, making it difficult to quickly ramp up production to offset supply shocks in the short term. However, the reverse risk is that the U.S. can release SPR strategic petroleum reserves to directly suppress oil prices, which is the biggest policy hedge tool for bulls.$BTC brothers, why hasn't Zec crashed yet? This time the sell-off isn't by the big players, but by early profit-taking retail investors. Why is it stuck at this position? 1400, because the big players are assessing risk. Pulling it higher from here might cause losses since the chips are already dispersed. Pushing it down might not make much money because the support volume isn't enough. Zec exceeded 1600 twice, but only held that level for a day. Calculating from the highest point to the current price, it's a full 280 points difference. Those 280 points were enough to liquidate most short sellers. Shorting at 1400 is extremely risky. I suggest everyone watch and wait, don't get on this pirate ship this round. Don't go long or short. As long as no one plays, it will definitely fall. The big players might let you make a little money, but making big money is almost impossible! Brother, don't ever play with trash like this. Didn't I get trapped? If I hadn't been trapped, I wouldn't play either. I watched it drop from 800 to a low of 186, then unfollowed. The crypto circle's "privacy" topic exploded everywhere, then I watched it rise from 200 to 800. I started shorting, added positions at 950, added more at 1100, then again at 1300, pretending to be dead and holding the position. At 1450 I had no money to add, at 1500 I added funds, at 1600 added funds again, almost at 1700, realized I had no money to add, let alone margin. In the end, I found my average price didn't even break 1300. It's hard to explain.
$ZEC Pre-Holiday Night Talk: Cold Reflections on Nonfarm Payroll Night and BTC's Bottoming Signal
Tomorrow is the National Day holiday, and I believe many friends have already set off tonight just to avoid the "parking lot" situation on the highways. On this eagerly anticipated pre-holiday night, the market's attention is focused on tonight's nonfarm payroll data to see if it will deliver a surprise at this special moment.
From last night's news, the probability of an interest rate hike in October is low, and the market's tense nerves have slightly eased. But the real concern lies in the long term—the rate hike expectations for December and February to March next year are quietly heating up. I don't believe the market can keep rallying under the shadow of rate hikes, especially before the uncertainty of the midterm elections is resolved. Once election expectations are realized, market volatility is likely to follow.
Back to the market, it no longer makes much sense to argue whether BTC will rebound to 838-839 or 844. The core logic now should shift from "watching the rebound height" to "watching the bottom's strength." Observing when the price can firmly hold above 835 is far more important than guessing the rebound peak. Currently, signs of bottoming are appearing around 830, and the key going forward is to see if the bottom can be effectively raised. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 14
Today the account is 53.86, today's change -6.93 (-11.39%).
I was busy with work today and barely checked the market, but there is one thing I did: from opening the position yesterday until today, I have held the $ZEC trade without closing or switching coins. The account's highest point in between reached around 61, now it is 53.86.
The $ZEC short position is still the same: 7x leverage, opened at 1440.94, now at 1425.85, with an unrealized profit of +7.23%. The liquidation price is set at 1675.49, which is still a safe distance from the current price.
Why do I dare to hold? Because what I said yesterday is still proving true today — the $ZEC correction wave has ended, and it is still expected to go down further. It did drop today, which is why I didn’t take any action: the direction hasn’t changed, so there’s no need to mess with it.
My biggest progress this month is not learning more indicators, but learning to "hold." Before, I couldn’t resist checking the market every minute, wanted to exit when it rose a bit, add more when it fell a bit, switching coins three or four times a day, and ended up catching nothing. Today, being too busy to watch actually let the position move at its own pace — sometimes "not acting" is the best move.
Of course, today’s account is at a loss, -6.93. The unrealized profit of the position and the account’s daily profit don’t necessarily sync due to funding fees and settlement differences. I don’t sugarcoat it. But I still stick to my view: I continue to be bearish on $ZEC.
Let’s discuss in the comments: at this position, where do you think $ZEC will go next?
Always use stop loss, low leverage, position management, and full transparency of held funds. For reference only, not investment advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 2B Rule Judgment
After BTC formed a 2B structure at 83100 on the 4H chart and rebounded to break the previous high, a short-term bullish signal is established. If the pullback to 83800-84000 holds without breaking, it is considered a valid 2B reversal. Breaking below 83600 invalidates the 2B, requiring reassessment.
3️⃣ Dow Theory
On the 4H timeframe, higher lows and higher highs indicate a complete uptrend structure. BTC key support is at 83000, resistance at 84500. The valuation logic of Lighter needs to be reassessed.
Robinhood's perpetual contract strategy is most likely a "split in two": the App and existing regulated markets follow Bitstamp's approach, while the Wallet and non-US users are directed to Lighter.
This means the previous expectation that "Robinhood would channel massive order flow to Lighter" is basically dashed — what it gets is a segmented channel, not the main battlefield.
The fundamentals haven't deteriorated, but the imagination space in the valuation has been cut down. The biggest risk in this kind of "being carried by a big company" narrative is never the technology, but rather your rank in someone else's strategy.
Full expectations lead to a premium, unmet expectations lead to a discount. CT surged over 500% in the first hour after listing, but this figure does not represent a full 24-hour market.
OKX announced that the CT call auction started at 17:00 Beijing time, with spot trading opening at 18:00. As of 19:08, the current price is about $0.463, approximately 517% higher than the opening reference price of $0.075; the intraday high was $0.48544, with the current price about 4.6% below the peak.
At the same time, the trading volume was about $2.96 million, and the best bid-ask spread was about 0.23%. However, the historical candlestick data currently covers only two hours, so the so-called "24-hour increase" mainly reflects price discovery after the new coin's opening and cannot be directly equated with a daily increase based on a complete trading baseline.
My judgment is that what is most worth observing now is not the 500% itself, but whether a second support level can form around $0.431. The easiest misjudgment is to treat the call auction reference price as a mature market price and chase exaggerated percentages based on it; the opening sample is short, and the order book is still being re-evaluated, so the scale of pullbacks may be much larger than in normal markets.
Next, pay attention to $0.431 and $0.48544. If the price holds above $0.431, trading volume continues to expand, and the spread narrows, it indicates that price discovery is beginning to stabilize; if it falls below $0.431 while the spread widens, the opening liquidity is retreating, and the 500% increase is even less suitable as a basis for chasing the price.
$CT $BTC Four-Year Cycle Series 84】
2012 Price broke above the blue line: Bull market recovery peak reached 42 days later
2015 Price broke above the blue line: Bull market recovery peak reached 50 days later
2019 Price broke above the blue line: Bull market recovery peak reached 46 days later
2023 Price broke above the blue line: Secondary bull market recovery peak reached 26 days later
Current blue line: $89,338
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Gray line: Bitcoin price
Blue line: Average purchase price of BTC held on-chain for 6-12 months 📊$DOGE HOLDER UPDATE — SEPT. 30
🐕 Dogecoin whales are showing renewed accumulation. Wallets holding 10M–100M DOGE reportedly added about 1.14B $DOGE between Sept. 24–27, worth roughly $112M at the reported prices.
📊 $DOGE : around $0.093
🎯 Key resistance: $0.10
🐋 Holder signal: Large-wallet balances are rising, although wallet transfers don't necessarily prove open-market buying.
Headline: 🐕🐋 DOGE whales are accumulating while the $0.10 level remains the key market test.$ZEC
The recent activity of this Square hot coin is all about the positions.
It has been oscillating between 1420 and 1430 for a long time, basically no movement in 24 hours.
Contract positions decreased by 3%, but retail short sellers still hold the majority, this signal is somewhat one-sided.
The long-short account ratio dropped to 0.67, with significantly more accounts betting on the short side.
If it can't hold above 1450, don't rush to take sides yet.
Are you more inclined to wait for it to stabilize before going up, or just lie down following the shorts?
Analysis only, not advice, risk at your own discretion. $ZEC
$ZEC Six companies signed an AI safety agreement, including OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
Many people's first reaction is positive, thinking AI will be regulated, and whether those AI concept coins in the crypto space can ride the wave.
I, on the other hand, think this matter has little to do with the crypto world.
To put it bluntly, this is the White House letting several AI giants do their own homework and grade themselves. The auditing agencies are self-selected, with no deadlines and no penalties.
Think about it, how strong can this constraint be?
What’s really worth watching is not who signed, but who didn’t. The one who didn’t sign is the one most likely to cause trouble later.
For the market, this news doesn’t even count as a sentiment boost, so don’t force it onto AI coins.
What I want to see now is this: whether any AI company will truly be found with problems by external audits next. That would be the real signal.
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 #AMD拟斥资82亿美元收购AI公司 $HYPE Can the trading heat of $UNI DEX support UNI's valuation?
This afternoon, OKX spot 24-hour range was about 8.72—9.30, with a trading volume of approximately 25.92 million USDT, and the price leaning towards the lower end. Increased decentralized trading volume can boost protocol usage, but there is still a gap between trading volume, fees, and the actual value to token holders. Competitor diversion will also suppress sustainable fee rates.
If the 1-hour chart shows volume recovery above 9.30 and maintains stability, I will raise my judgment on capital inflow; if 8.72 is breached and rebound volume is insufficient, the trading share and fee capture need to be reassessed. An increase in on-chain trading volume alone is not enough to justify token pricing.$NEAR hot search surged 10.651%, but OI dropped -4.63%
$NEAR surged onto CoinGecko hot search, currently at 5.288, up 10.651% in 24h. At this level, I am directly bullish but selective in entry, not chasing sentiment.
First, the heat brings volume, with 24h trading volume at 212,372,494 USDT, volume ratio 1.435. Second, leverage is not crowded, funding rate 0.0001, long-short account ratio 1.4704. Third, honestly, OI at 50,861,985.00 is down -4.63% compared to the 2026-09-29 record; the rally relies on spot, leverage hasn't followed.
The overall market is unhelpful, fear-greed index at 71, in a high-level retreat phase, BTC at 83,862.68 below the 7-day moving average, US stock crypto concept stocks average -1.16%, all heat depends on NEAR itself.
Resistance above: 5.337, 5.424, 5.578
Support below: 5.006, 4.831, 4.732
5.337 is the 24h high and first resistance. I only stand bullish above 5.006. Small positions enter near 5.288, cut losses if it breaks below 5.006, hold above 5.337 to reach 5.424. Like and follow, whether it continues or is a one-day trip, I'll alert you first.
$NEAR $BTCMicron Earnings Night: Can the AI Myth Withstand the "Strangulation" of U.S. Treasuries?
Last night, the account withdrew 5k, seemingly moving a step further from the target, but in this market, the real game is often not in the floating profits and losses of the account, but in the precise grasp of the macro trend. Tonight, Micron Technology will deliver its report, which is not only a performance test for the storage giant but also a direct confrontation between the AI bubble and macro liquidity.
The market generally expects Micron's performance to be impressive, as the shortage of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a clear advantage amid the rapid surge in AI computing infrastructure. But the real suspense lies in the battle between "sustainability" and the "macro environment." Currently, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has soared to a historic high of 5.6%, a Damocles sword hanging overhead, ruthlessly suppressing the rebound space of U.S. stocks, especially high-valuation tech stocks.
Capital is smart but cautious. On one side is the certainty of incremental growth brought by AI; on the other is the temptation of risk-free returns from high interest rates and the risk of valuation reappraisal. Tonight's Micron earnings may prove that AI demand remains strong, but if it cannot provide guidance that exceeds the market's very high expectations, in the face of a 5.6% Treasury yield, any "good news" could be interpreted as "good news fully priced in."
At this point, neither going long nor blindly bearish is advisable; instead, wait for the market to choose the true direction amid the squeeze between earnings and macro factors. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 The days of holding through losses are really agonizing,
I don't even dare to happily open other positions anymore,
Just staring fixedly at the coins that are stuck,
1. $SOON keeps rising,
It no longer experiences big pullbacks like a few days ago,
Now it only pulls back a few points,
Then immediately rallies back up,
I saw two pieces of news in the updates,
The first is that the circulating supply is only a bit over 3%,
It's very easy for the whales to control $SOON,
They can even get all the chips in their hands,
This means that a wild surge would be deadly for the short sellers,
And a sudden drop would be deadly for the long holders,
Going long or short feels like gambling.
The second thing is a picture I saw,
It shows Zhao from biiiiannnn's Twitter update,
He posted something about soon,
Some believe this update triggered the recent surge,
Not sure if it's true,
Actually, it doesn't quite fit,
The time on it is early morning September 30th,
But $SOON had already surged for several days.
As for my next moves,
My current position has reached 6% of the total portfolio,
I don't want to add more,
Feels like this rise is too fierce,
My rule is that a single loss shouldn't exceed 10%,
Leaving the remaining 4% to give it more room,
To prevent liquidation.
Holding through losses is really tough. SOL spot ETF has seen about $5.4 million inflow for 7 consecutive positive days, but the price is stuck around 119 and not following, don't sound the charge yet.
Here's what we see: US spot SOL ETF net inflow on 9/29 was about $5.4 million, marking 7 consecutive positive trading days; the total for the last five trading days is about $146.3 million, with a cumulative net inflow of about $1.612 billion.
Bitwise's BSOL led with about +$5.7 million that day, MSOL about +$1.3 million, while VanEck's VSOL was about -$1.6 million, hedging some of the heat.
Price-wise: on 9/27 the high was about 124.62, closed around 122.06; on 9/28 it dropped to close around 118.84; on 9/29 it closed about 119.06; in the Asian session Wednesday it was about 119.4, still some distance from the recent high.
Simply put: institutional channels are still accumulating, but the spot price hasn't caught the enthusiasm of last week's roughly $188 million inflow (the strongest week in nearly 10 months). It's like money is flowing into the ETF, but the market is digesting selling pressure. Plus, with nonfarm payroll and PCE week interest rates still firm, chasing the price is more likely to get shaken out.
My view: the ETF's consecutive positive inflows are a sign of confidence, not a license to chase the high immediately. I'll just observe for now and not treat the inflows as a buy signal.
Watch for invalidation if it breaks below the daily low around 116.5 again, or wait to talk about rhythm if it stands back above about 124.6. Don't rush to add positions in between.
Do you think it will first stabilize above 120 before following, or pull back near 116 before buying in?
$SOL $ETH $SUI
#ThisWeekKeyNonfarmAndPCEData
#USBondYieldsHitHighestSince2007GoldDropsOver3%$ETH is giving the market another clue about where liquidity may be moving.
Around $731.85M in 7-day ETF inflows puts Ethereum back on the radar, but the flow alone isn’t enough.
The real test is whether price can hold strength while spot volume picks up.
If ETH/BTC starts improving and OI rises with genuine volume, attention could rotate toward $SOL next.
If BTC stays strong while ETH fades, that would tell a very different story.
I’m watching the confirmation, not just the headline. 👀 SEC chief Paul Atkins has spoken out, saying the U.S. stock market is ready to "move onto the blockchain" to give it a try. This isn’t about turning Apple or Nvidia into Dogecoin-like tokens, but about creating "on-chain versions" of stocks.
What does that mean?
It means that in the future, what you buy won’t just be a number in your brokerage account, but an on-chain token that still represents U.S. stocks.
First, stock rights remain intact.
Dividends, voting rights—everything you’re entitled to will still be there. It’s not some fake stock that only tracks price but grants no real rights.
Second, settlement will be faster.
Previously, after a stock trade, you had to go through clearing, custody, reconciliation, and other processes. On-chain, using smart contracts, theoretically, trade and settlement can happen almost instantly.
Third, trading hours could become more flexible.
Traditional U.S. stock markets are open only a few hours. On-chain trading could run 24/7, so you could trade Microsoft even in the middle of the night on weekends.
Fourth, intermediaries might be reduced.
Clearinghouses and multiple layers of middlemen create frictions; cutting some out lowers costs.
This time, the SEC is implementing an "innovation exemption" for a 5-year trial.
It’s not a full deregulation party, but a selective, conditional trial on compliant platforms and specific assets:
- Platforms must be licensed
- Smart contracts must be transparent and auditable
- Tokens can’t be issued arbitrarily
- "Synthetic stocks" that only track price without shareholder rights are not allowed
- Listed companies can still object: "Don’t issue on-chain tokens for my company"
This is a real positive for RWA.
RWA basically means "real-world assets moving onto the blockchain": stocks, bonds, government debt, real estate, gold—all count. Previously, RWA was mostly talk, but now with U.S. stocks trying it, it’s no longer just a PPT.
But don’t get carried away.
Tokenized stocks are still securities regulated by the SEC. They’re not the same as "native crypto assets" like Bitcoin or Ethereum. Regulators will clearly distinguish between "real stocks on-chain" and "tokens issued by crypto communities."
If this path really works out, the future might look like this:
At 3 a.m., you’re lying in bed buying Tesla with stablecoins, settlement happens in seconds, dividends automatically arrive, and you can even vote on-chain with a click.
This time, Wall Street and crypto aren’t just shouting at each other—they’re sitting at the same table for a drink 🍻 Who is defending CORE? Unveiling the "Buy Only, No Sell" Public Opinion Trap
The $CORE project team dropped another set of "hype" rhetoric in the early morning, and the community supporters immediately mobilized, readily shouting "all in." Once someone raises doubts, they pull out the universal shield: "If you don't like it, just sell."
Behind this tough exclusionary reaction often lie the calculations of two types of people.
One type is retail investors deeply trapped at high positions. Facing huge unrealized losses, they choose self-hypnosis, stubbornly holding onto the "narrative faith," eagerly hoping for newcomers to enter and take over, pushing the coin price up so they can break even and exit.
The other type is professional community shills. Facing objective flaws like staking page crashes and token release cycles lasting 81 years, they avoid discussing these issues, only responsible for blocking negative voices and maintaining a false prosperity.
When "doubt" is equated with "malice," and "risk warnings" are labeled as "FUD," this itself is a dangerous game of hot potato. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Wang Yibing's chain was breached twice, with a total of 290 million USD worth of assets evaporated, only then did they think to jump the horse to the center and announce the reinforcement was complete—this is not defense, this is regretful retreat.
In this game of chess, the order in which the heavy pieces are deployed is everything. Custom verification, compliance gateways, configurable settlement—these three elements presented simultaneously are like finally placing the elephant on a long-open diagonal. The weakness of cross-chain bridges has never been speed, but that the square in front of the king is always left undefended. Security is not a tactical measure; it is the constitution of the layout phase. Whoever treats the constitution as decoration will inevitably see their midgame collapse.
What truly caught my eye was not the technical patches, but the two players sitting opposite on the board. One holds the clearing arteries of the southern hemisphere, the other controls trillion-level asset management parent accounts. Their entry into the game is not about conceding a few pawns, but about rewriting this line from an "open line" to a "semi-open line controlled by our side"—from then on, all the rooks will press forward along it, and the speed of piece deployment directly determines midgame initiative. A value migration of 15 billion USD in four months indicates a passage pawn has formed. But remember: a passage pawn is not promotion; there is still a whole endgame to calculate in between. Any misstep, and the passage pawn becomes the opponent's target.
Network tokens rising nearly 7% in 24 hours is a tactical pawn, not even the net value of piece exchange. The real question is: are these institutional flows sacrificed pawns or passage pawns? If trading volume only occurs at the settlement layer while fees leak out layer by layer, then this 7% is a baited sacrifice—luring you in, then taking your initiative. Value capture never depends on how lively the bridge is, but on whose pocket the toll fees ultimately settle into. This is the net account after piece exchange, not a momentum account.
The linkage with US stock mapped targets requires even more calm. That side is a flank advance on another wing, with a different rhythm. Don't mistake the two wings' advances as the same tactical combination. When the main wing is exchanging pieces, the flank is often waiting for you to make a mistake.
I've seen too many players personally move their king out to die in advantageous positions. The 300 million tuition fee is right there; whoever continues to treat compliance as decoration rather than the framework will be the next forced draw by perpetual check.
For this game, anyone who can't calculate within twenty moves does not deserve to sit at this board. #chainlinkccip2launchIn two days, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October dropped from 70% to 42.6%. The speed of this expectation reversal is faster than any previous FOMC meeting.
Such drastic swings indicate that the market has no consensus at all and is merely repricing back and forth based on officials' statements.
A few days ago, there was panic over hawkish signals, and now the market is trading on "no rate hike."
This is good for crypto, but it must be recognized: this is volatility in expectations, not a policy shift. Interest rates haven't moved, liquidity hasn't changed; only sentiment has.
Betting positions on probability numbers is like handing the steering wheel over to someone else's words. The real signals lie in inflation and employment data, not in the betting odds on the market.BTC surged from 63K all the way up to 86K, and now it's grinding back near 84K. The most interesting thing isn't the drop, but that every time it rises, the market starts shouting bull return; and with every pullback, it begins searching for the top again. Tonight, the focus isn't on whether the "PCE is bearish or bullish," but on whether the data exceeds expectations. Currently, the market expects August core PCE to rise +0.3% month-over-month and +3.3% year-over-year. If the actual data is hotter, concerns about inflation stickiness and high interest rates may intensify, pushing yields higher, which naturally makes BTC uncomfortable; if it's below expectations, the pressure might ease a bit. It has already risen over 40%, so it's no surprise to see some deleveraging and chip washing. What veteran traders really fear is never a 10% drop. What they fear is that after a 40% rise, the screen is full of "this time it's really different." Whether 84K can turn from a resistance level into a support level is the real thing to watch next.An $8.2 billion all-stock consideration is not exchanging for a finished building, but for a foundation formula that hasn't even been poured yet.
AMD Semiconductor has taken the entire World Labs under its name, with the delivery date scheduled all the way to the end of the year after next — this construction period is longer than the main construction cycle of many super high-rises. From my industry perspective: this means the client is taking away the structural calculation documents, the laboratory, and the original design team before the main structure is topped out. Because what truly determines how tall a building can be is never the facade rendering, but how deep the pile foundation is driven, whether the concrete grade is sufficient, and if the wind tunnel data has been empirically verified.
The relationship between large model R&D and computing power is, frankly, like that between a design institute and a general contractor. In the past two years, the designers finished their drawings and left, passing all the load-bearing responsibility to the computing power side; the computing side could only keep adding reinforcement, cross-sections, and floor height, struggling to bear it. The cost was uncontrolled expenses, astonishing structural redundancy, and terrible energy efficiency. Now, by integrating the research team into the same master plan, it’s like having the designers and the concrete pourers share one structural model — where to place shear walls, how to anchor nodes, and which floor to tension prestressing can be decided at the drawing stage, rather than knocking down walls after removing formwork.
But I have to pour a bucket of cast-in-place concrete cold water: acquisition never equals structural reinforcement. An all-stock payment means no cash flow stress test, only the gentle settlement of equity dilution. The delivery spans two years, during which core personnel turnover, technical route changes, and lack of supervision can each turn the blueprint into a pile of scrap paper. I've seen too many beautiful plans ultimately crack at the construction joints — not because the design was bad, but because no one maintained the curing between two processes, turning the post-pour joint into a permanent gap.
There is only one real acceptance criterion: when the demands of reasoning and intelligent agents come on, can this merged architecture withstand greater live loads at the same power consumption, and can it be replicated, prefabricated, and quickly assembled into an expandable system like a standard floor? If it’s just putting two teams into the same building connected by a corridor, that’s a developer’s vanity project, not a load-bearing wall for architects.
As for the linkage with the US stock token target, that’s just a beam of light cast in front of the sales office model, having nothing to do with the static load test of the pile foundation. #amdworldlabsacquisitionThe Logical Reversal of LIT: When "Borrowing a Path" Becomes "Direct Connection"
The anxiety of LIT holders is not unfounded. The core narrative that previously supported its high valuation was the deep integration between Lighter and Robinhood—the market was confident that Lighter would be Robinhood's sole technical gateway into the crypto derivatives market, thereby generating massive buyback and burn through a huge influx of retail users.
However, Robinhood's announcement to offer perpetual contracts to U.S. users through the acquisition of Bitstamp directly shattered this illusion. This means the giant chose a "direct connection" model with compliant licenses and mature infrastructure, rather than relying on a third-party protocol as a "borrowed path." For LIT, this is not only a dashed expectation but also a fundamental restructuring: when the largest potential traffic entry point is cut off, the previously high premium logic based on being Robinhood's exclusive partner instantly becomes invalid.
The current decline essentially reflects the market removing the illusion of "riding on traffic" and re-pricing LIT's true value as an independent technical protocol. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $ZEC will either free fall down to 1100 or surge up to 1800! I am firmly bearish on $ZEC, but this unstoppable upward trend makes me lean more towards it rising to 1800! Previously, I started shorting from 800 up to 1400, during which I was stopped out about seven or eight times, basically going all in on one path. After so many failures, I realized that $ZEC simply can't fall right now. Even if insiders are dumping spot positions, there will be funds supporting it; the buying pressure always outweighs the selling pressure! I know many brothers have suffered heavy losses shorting like me. Seeing ZEC start to drop these past two days got them excited, thinking a waterfall drop is coming and adding to their shorts. I still think caution is wise. This coin has backing; it can pump at any time. Brothers who think like me should hold back and not get deeper into losses![Old Leek Observation]
$ICP
This year, the ICP community has been promoting a plan called Mission 70.
The goal is straightforward:
Reduce ICP's annual issuance/inflation from about 9.72% to 2.92%. Simply put, this means a significant reduction in newly generated ICP in the future. Part of the plan relies on lowering node rewards, while the other part increases on-chain computation costs, causing more ICP to be burned through network usage.
The most noteworthy point here is:
One of ICP's biggest past issues was that when the price rose, new supply would continuously emerge. If Mission 70 is gradually implemented, the logic will reverse: increased network usage → more ICP consumption → reduced new issuance → less pressure on circulating supply. Of course, this plan does not take effect all at once today, nor does it "cut 70% inflation immediately."
Currently, it remains an ongoing adjustment to the network's economic model.
So what ICP needs to pay attention to this time is not how much it rises today.
But in the coming months:
Whether the actual burn volume can increase, and whether node new issuance can continue to decline.
If both data points improve simultaneously, then ICP will truly have undergone a change at the token economic level this time.
Entry: $3.30–3.45
Take profit: $3.65 / $3.90 / $4.20 / $4.60 / $5.10
Stop loss: $3.12
If it falls below $3.12, abandon this structure first. Stop loss means exit immediately.$BOME playing low market cap altcoins, better not use USDC, liquidity is not as high as USDT. When a sudden drop hits, my 10001 break-even stop loss got hit at 9966, causing a loss instead of break-even. Damn itAs previously expected, the probability of a rate hike in October cannot remain high for long
It was knocked down early this morning by remarks from New York Fed President Williams, who has been widely known in the crypto community since last year for calling Bitcoin's rebound from a downtrend at 80k, and has repeatedly expressed views at key market turning points that change market direction
Oil prices are also temporarily suppressed by news such as Saudi Arabia resuming exports and the US re-auctioning up to 40 million barrels of SPR crude oil, while US Treasury yields have started to decline
If tonight's PCE data provides further support, gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin could all see a good rebound. Even if there is no movement tonight, Friday's big nonfarm payrolls report will also bring market actionLooking at BTC, ETH, and ZEC, the trends of the three coins have actually shown clear differences.
BTC$BTC is currently fluctuating around 83,000. After a previous surge, there has been some pullback, but overall no obvious breakdown. The short-term focus remains on support around 82,000–83,000 USD, with resistance near 85,000 being quite critical. The biggest variable now is still the US Treasury yields; long-term rates remain elevated, suppressing the rebound potential of risk assets.
ETH$ETH is currently around 2,700 USD, showing a slightly more active trend than BTC. As long as it can hold the 2,650–2,670 range in the short term, there is still room for further upward recovery #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Q: What are your single trade risk and account drawdown limits?
Single trade risk should be controlled within 5% of total capital as much as possible, and account drawdown limits should be controlled within 10% as much as possible.
The most important point is to avoid emotional trading and blind directional guesses, otherwise you will likely incur losses and be eliminated by the market.
The reason for controlling within 5% is that on one hand, the loss amount is small, allowing you to find the right time to make up for losses later. If the loss amount is large, for example 50%, then just "breaking even" requires doubling your principal.
Smaller drawdowns ensure more "trial and error" opportunities and prevent a single "strategic mistake" from causing you to be eliminated.
However, for mainstream coins like $BTC and $ETH, some dynamic adjustments should be made, while for altcoins with more volatile fluctuations, I personally think the drawdown space can be relatively reduced.
For example, if BTC and ETH positions are established around 82000 and 2350 respectively, and later drop to 75000 and 2200 but the support levels hold effectively, these coins have relatively strong certainty. With large buy orders below, adding positions or accepting a larger single trade drawdown of 5-10% is acceptable. Over the mid to long term, losses can still be recovered and profits earned during upward trends 🤔
@OKX星球 @米妮Minnie_OKX