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$ZEC This small rebound is not going to scare me
Many brothers advised me to stop loss at the $1400 level
They said it will still rise above $2000
If the bull market continues
I do not doubt that ZEC will still rise
But rising to 2000 does not conflict with going down to 1000
I clearly feel that ZEC's rebound strength is weaker than $BTC and $ETH
In this case, if BTC continues to break below 80000, and ETH breaks below 2500
Then, ZEC will only fall more
It is not impossible to reach my break-even point at $993
I have already placed an order at $990
To prevent the dog whales from dumping while I sleep and missing the chance to break even
I really don't believe the drop will end at this level
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% AAVE surged nearly 20% today, what is the market rushing for?
On one side, there are already launched businesses: 7 tokenized US stocks including Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, etc., can be used as collateral on Aave V4 to borrow USDC;
On the other side, the founder Stani just mentioned that they are considering adding burn to Aavenomics 3.0 (has this year's narrative and hype shifted entirely to burning? 😂)
I want to do some math on the "burn expectation": Aave's protocol revenue in the last 30 days is about $5.06 million;
At the price of around $174 shown in the screenshot, assuming all this revenue is used to buy and burn, that would be about 29,000 AAVE per month, roughly 0.18% of the total supply.
So today's big bullish candle probably reflects not just how much can be burned immediately, but also how big the lending business can grow after US stocks go on-chain;
The business is already open, the burn is still under discussion;
Going forward, it depends on the actual loan volume and how much revenue is ultimately used for burning.
The price has risen fast enough, but the calculations need to be done slowly.📰 【US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2002】
BlockBeats reports that on September 29, the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.595%, reaching a new high since 2002.
Long-term rates are hitting new highs again, money is getting more expensive, and the first to lose liquidity are risk assets. Keep an eye on on-chain stablecoin issuance and net inflows to exchanges these days; memecoin sentiment tends to ebb during such times. When macro tightens, survival comes before opportunity. Are you reducing your positions now or holding firm? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $HYPE Forget checking Fear & Greed alone—watch $DOGE too. 🐕
DOGE often reflects retail risk appetite: rising volume can signal stronger participation, while weak price action may show fading interest.
It’s not a standalone indicator, but when DOGE and BTC move together, the market’s sentiment becomes easier to read.
#USIranNuclearTalks
#TetherFreezes550MUSDT
#ChainlinkCCIP2Launch ⚡️ Peter Brandt: BTC long-term cycle still has huge potential
Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently discussed Bitcoin's long-term cycle again. He believes that if the historical cycle structure continues to hold, BTC's next cycle peak could reach $300K–$600K around 2029, and expects the 2028 halving to be an important catalyst for the next cycle.
📍 The current market is more realistic: ➤ $BTC is currently around $84.4K, still fluctuating near $84K in the short term
➤ Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.4B, but the price did not simultaneously break the previous high
➤ US Treasury yields remain high, with the 10Y briefly rising to about 5.2%, continuing to suppress risk asset valuations ➤ This week, the market will also face PCE and employment data, which may further affect Fed rate expectations.
As for XRP, Brandt has indeed expressed strong skepticism about its investment logic in the past, but he recently stated that XRP's long-term price structure itself is worth attention. In other words, looking at charts ≠ unconditionally optimistic about the token's fundamentals.
🔥 Long-term cycles focus on narrative, short-term cycles focus on price.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #USTreasuryYieldHigh #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #MicronEarningsAhead
Micron isn't just reporting earnings. It's testing how much perfection the AI memory trade has already priced in 👀
Q4 guidance implies ~21% sequential growth, with an 86% gross margin.
Those are huge numbers.
What caught my attention is the bar keeps rising. A beat may not be enough anymore.
HBM4 demand, memory pricing and FY2027 guidance now matter more than Q4 itself. Strong results prove AI demand is real. Strong guidance proves it can last.Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $2.386B in net inflows — the strongest weekly inflow since October last year. At first glance, you'd expect BTC to explode higher. But instead, $BTC pulled back from last week's $87,400 high and is still hovering around $84K. So what’s going on? 👀 The money definitely came in, but the daily flow pattern tells a different story. 💰 Monday: nearly $1B 💰 Tuesday: $700M+ 💰 Friday: only around $135M 💰 This Monday: roughly $31M The strongest buying🐋 A ZEC whale just increased a short to 39K ZEC, worth ~$56M, with entry around $1,501 and ~$3M floating profit.
Heavy shorts + whale selling are adding pressure. $2K still looks like a major psychological hurdle for bulls. $ZEC
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #USTreasuryYieldHigh #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh Both low-entry longs are now in profit. 📝
$APT: entry $0.8247 → $0.8337
$OKB: entry $116.3 → $121.12
The plan worked: wait for support, avoid chasing, and let the rebound come. $BTC remains range-bound, so patience and tight risk management are key.
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh
#StrategyBuys1665BTC
#TokenizedStocksOnAave "CME Dual-Currency Futures: A Cooling-Off Period After the Sentiment Surge"
The news that CME will launch BCH and UNI futures initially ignited the market: BCH surged over 31% at one point, and UNI rose nearly 20%. However, after expectations were realized, the heat quickly cooled down, with both falling back 6.56% and 8.85% respectively. This is a typical "run-up followed by profit-taking," not a trend reversal.
This round is more like event-driven. The price had already priced in the launch expectations, so the official launch became an exit point for profit-taking. What really matters is whether trading volume and open interest can continue after the launch on October 19. If it’s just a news pulse, the rally will be hard to sustain; if funds continue to accumulate, it indicates real demand.
In terms of operations, I am still holding my BTC long position at 82800, with a stop loss at 81000 and a target of 86000–88000, with a light position. This week’s PCE and nonfarm payroll data are key variables; I won’t predict direction before the data. I’m not chasing BCH or UNI for now; I will reassess after a pullback stabilizes. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Markets have timing; always set stop losses. Wishing you success.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 AAVE surged from about 149 to a high of around 175 today, rising about 17% in one day. Stani hinted at adding burn, so I’m not chasing the high this time.
Here’s what I see: Monday low around 144.5, close about 149; today opened around 149, high about 175, currently about 175, leading DeFi gains.
The catalyst is the founder saying Aavenomics might add burn; buybacks were already running, and CRV and AVAX also bounced.
Simply put: the narrative upgraded from "buybacks going to the treasury" to "possibly burning directly," sparking sentiment first.
My take: during the nonfarm PCE week, a 17% surge in one day feels more like sentiment premium, not a confirmed trend.
I’m just observing for now, not chasing the gap; if it fails, watch for a break below about 160, or dropping back below about 150 before discussing the rhythm again.
Do you think it will first consolidate between 160–175 to digest, or directly pull back to 150 before getting back in? #ThisWeekNonfarmAndPCEKeyData #USTreasuryYieldsHitNewHighSince2007 GoldDownOver3% $AAVE $CRV $AVAXThis ETH trade is really frustrating. It dropped back to above 2600 earlier, and I was hoping it would continue downward, but now it's back to 2717.4 🥲 The short position opened at 2510.83 is still open, and the page shows this contract's floating return rate at -822.71%, with the 2400 take-profit untouched. It's not true that I'm not anxious, but being anxious won't push the price down for me.
On the funding side, there is indeed some change that fits the bears' expectations: on September 28, the net inflow of US ETH spot ETFs dropped to $17.1 million, lower than $87 million on the 25th, and the net inflow that day was concentrated in two products, with zero in the others. However, although buying slowed, it is still not a net outflow.
What I want to distinguish now is that fewer new buyers and old buyers rushing to sell are two different things. My bet is that after the cooling of new demand, the price will have difficulty sustaining an upward trend. But if subscriptions decrease and the price still holds, it might indicate that holders are not in a hurry to cash out. We can't just see fewer buyers and automatically assume the sellers are dominating.
For me, a more significant bearish signal would be if, even when buying picks up again later, the price can't rise or can't hold after rising. That would be more suspicious, suggesting more chips are willing to be cashed out. Right now, this is just a condition to observe; I can't assume it has already happened just because I hold a short position. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Brothers, I’m shorting this ETH rebound. Not because I’m blindly bearish — the current market structure is giving me a reason to stay cautious. Three things stand out: 1️⃣ Price is rising, but volume isn't confirming it The bullish noise is getting louder, but volume hasn't expanded with the move. That makes the rebound look more like potential distribution than a clean breakout. 2️⃣ ETH/BTC remains weak Whenever BTC pauses for a breath, ETH appears to lose momentum first. That relative weakness$BTC started the week by sweeping the lows.
Price grabbed the weekend liquidity and tapped the $82.8K level we had been watching.
I actually like this move. After several days of sideways consolidation and liquidity building on both sides, the downside has now been cleared.
The key area I’m watching next is around $82K — the HTF range high and the top of the consolidation that triggered the previous move higher.
$BTC
$ETH
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead ETH has a real ecosystem: DeFi TVL is close to $53 billion, on-chain stablecoin supply is nearly $147 billion, and ETFs have had net inflows for six consecutive days. These are all real.
But ETH also has real issues: a supply wall of 13.3 million coins, 73% long crowding, whales continuously selling, and macro pressure from the 5.18% US Treasury yield.
An asset with an ecosystem, ETFs, and problems will see its price repeatedly tug-of-war around 2700 until the supply wall is eaten away.
2633 is the lifeline. Holding it means there is room for consolidation and recovery. Breaking below it means $1.2 billion of longs will be the next fuel.
Don’t talk about a breakout above the 13.3 million ETH supply wall. First, see if it can hold 2633.
(The above content does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks; only those alive have the right to talk about the future.) $ETH $BTC $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $NEAR's first spot ETF launched, RSI 71.5: Take profits first
$NEAR welcomes the first spot ETF in the US: Bitwise launched, management fee 0.75%, raised from 4.929 to 5.016 (+1.77%). But I'm directly bearish—up 175.66% in 30 days, only -0.259% in 24h on launch day, the positive news has already been fully priced in.
Daily RSI 71.5 overbought, MACD red bars flattening, 30-day range position 0.852, fear greed at 73. Multi-timeframe signals are bearish, market stuck at high-level divergence pullback.
Volume didn't keep up, 24h trading volume 209,816,994 USDT, volume ratio 1.477. US crypto concept stocks collectively fell: COIN -1.7%, MARA -3.51%, MicroStrategy -0.93%, average -2.05%.
Resistance above: 5.051, 5.211
Support below: 5.006, 4.732
Watershed at 5.068, failure to break above hands a knife to the bears.
Conclusion: The positive news is priced in on the spot, the rebound is a gift to the bears. Short at the rebound near 5.051, stop loss at 5.211, first target 4.732, reduce position if it breaks below 5.006.
Like and follow, once 5.211 breaks or 4.732 hits, I'll alert you immediately.
$NEAR $BTCI am the mid-term intelligence guy!
Right now with $ETH, there are a few key points to watch closely.
From a technical perspective, the Glamsterdam upgrade is scheduled for Q4 2026, reducing block time from 13 minutes to 12-24 seconds. This is a solid benefit for institutional cross-chain settlements, but it’s a long-term solution that doesn’t solve immediate needs.
Binance withdrew 110,000 ETH in one week, reducing its holdings from 3.65 million to 3.54 million, a 3% decrease.
Coins are moving out; mid-term this looks like chip consolidation, but short-term it’s compounded by the liquidation of over 309 million long positions. Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Hyperliquid are all disaster zones with heavy leverage liquidations.
DYORSWAP’s fake bridge drained 767 ETH, and some wallets dumped over 5 million USD in the first week after distribution, with original addresses still selling.
My judgment: upgrade expectations provide a floor, but exchange outflows, chain liquidations, and selling pressure are weighing on sentiment.
Watch out for short-term spikes; manage your positions well and wait for certainty.
$BTC
$ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 🔥 What excites me most about ETH right now is not going long, but waiting for it to rebound to give shorts a chance.
📉 Three details on the chart make me cautious:
1️⃣ Many positives, but volume hasn't clearly supported it, so the sustainability of the rally is questionable;
2️⃣ ETH/BTC is weak, when BTC takes a breather, ETH actually dives first;
3️⃣ Heavy trapped positions above, so selling pressure is likely near resistance levels.
🎯 So my strategy is simple:
No chasing shorts, just wait for a rebound to short.
Position size 2%, 3x leverage.
If it breaks the previous high, admit the mistake immediately.
Target the previous low first, halve the position when reached, and move stop profit on the rest.
⚠️ This time I don’t want to repeat the old mistake: being right on direction but holding the wrong position size.
The market doesn’t reward stubbornness, only those who survive.
😂 ETH always makes me think "this time is different," then the next second tells me: you’re overthinking it.
Brothers, do you dare to go long this wave? $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Brothers, $ETH is really messing with my mindset.
I just want to ask: can Ethereum just drop decisively once?
Yesterday the low was 2633, my short position was still in floating profit, but today it reversed sharply, pushing back above 2700, reaching as high as 2748.
My position went straight from floating profit to floating loss.
Entry average price was 2688, now the latest transaction price is 2707.73, 100x short, currently floating loss is -73.37%. To be honest, the most frustrating thing about this market is that it always gives you hope.
Just when it drops, you think the bears are about to take over, the next second it pulls back up.
But I don’t dare to chase longs now.
Because there’s still resistance above, ETH/BTC isn’t strong enough to give me much confidence, and there are still many trapped positions above 2700.
So my strategy hasn’t changed: no chasing shorts, wait for a rebound.
If it really keeps pushing up and breaks the previous high, I’ll admit I was wrong; if it can’t break through, then I’ll keep watching for pullback opportunities.
I won’t stubbornly fight it this time, after all, the market always has the next opportunity.
But I’m really a bit annoyed now.
ETH, if you’re going to rise, rise decisively; if you’re going to fall, fall decisively. Don’t torment us back and forth every day.
Brothers, do you think 2700 will hold this time, or will the bears strike again?
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Damn, this market is really crazy! Bulls and bears are taking turns getting beaten up, the exchanges must be laughing their heads off.
$384 million liquidated in 24 hours, 92,709 people directly out. Bulls got wiped out for $252 million, bears didn’t fare much better, contributing $133 million. The most outrageous was that Binance ETHUSDT liquidation, a single liquidation of $11.82 million, damn, it even hurts through the screen.
I checked the data and found it quite interesting. BTC bulls liquidated $33.85 million, bears $34.86 million; ETH bulls liquidated $37.63 million, bears $46.26 million. The whole market clearly saw bulls losing more, but for the big brothers BTC and ETH, the bears got hit harder.
With this kind of market, I really don’t want to open random positions. When the price drops, some think the bull market is over and rush to short; when it pulls up a bit, others fear missing out and go all in long. After all this tossing around, both sides end up giving money to the exchanges.
Next, I’m watching BTC at 84000, waiting to see if it can firmly hold before observing 85000; if it falls below 83500, watch out for a second dip. For ETH, first see if it can reclaim 2700; if it continues to be suppressed around 2720, I’d rather wait for a pullback. SOL is even more volatile; until it recovers 120, I won’t rush in just because of a few green candles.
One more thing, a large liquidation amount doesn’t mean the market will reverse immediately; it depends on whether new funds come in afterward. Especially BTC and ETH, the bears have already taken a round of hits; if the rebound lacks volume, it could still crash again.
Damn, who’s still guessing tops and bottoms with full leverage every day lately? I can only say they have a really strong heart. The bullish case for $TRUMP isn't necessarily based on TrumpPad being confirmed today. It’s based on the gap between the TrumpPad narrative and the team’s on-chain actions. 🔍 First: TrumpPad is still unverified The current information reportedly comes from an anonymous source cited by a website registered only 6 days ago. So far, there’s been no official announcement from the team, no confirmed product page, no contract code, and no official launch timeline. At this stage, TrumpPad should be tr🔥 This time I won't be stubborn, I'm bearish on ETH.
📉 Why?
First, there are many positives, but the volume hasn't significantly increased. The higher the price goes, the more I worry about a sell-off at the peak.
⚠️ Second, ETH/BTC is clearly weak. BTC is slightly stabilizing, but ETH started dropping first. This relative weakness makes me uneasy about going long.
📊 Third, the resistance above is dense. The closer the rebound gets to the pressure zone, the more comfortable it is for the bears.
🎯 But I won't blindly short.
Position size is only 2%, with 3x leverage;
I'll short after the rebound;
If it breaks the previous high, I'll admit I'm wrong;
The target is the previous low first, and at the halving, I'll move the stop profit for the remaining position.
💰 The biggest fear in trading isn't losing once, but losing and still trying to prove you're right.
No holding on, no gambling, no getting carried away.
🧠 Going long requires confidence, going short requires even more discipline.
Will ETH let me take fewer hits this time? What do you think? $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 📣ETH double event this week: 9/30 20:30 PCE, 10/2 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls. No change to the 10/29 decision, only the expected slope changes, ETH high beta is most sensitive. Current price ≈2690. Baseline (40%): 2600–2800 range; PCE cooling + moderate employment (25%): break 2800 to target 2950–3050; sticky inflation/overheated employment (25%): break 2540 to target 2350. Wait 30 minutes after data, reduce leverage first. $ETH #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData
I extracted all seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll data from last April until now and organized it into two charts. The conclusion is straightforward: the greater the difference between the announced nonfarm value and the expected value, the more violent the gold price fluctuations in those few minutes.
Some of the most extreme examples: on March 6, 2026, the difference was -15.10, and the gold price surged dramatically; on August 7, the difference was -10.30, another violent spike; on September 4, the difference was +10.60, far exceeding expectations, and gold immediately plunged sharply.
Positive difference means $XAU gold price falls; negative difference means gold price rises. The larger the difference, the more intense the crash or surge.
On September 4, that +10.60 difference literally broke through the lower edge of my gold grid at 4256. The current -73% unrealized loss in my account was caused by this ten-point difference.
I used to think holding on before the nonfarm announcement was enough, but now I see that the moment the data is released, the big players slaughter retail investors relying on these dozens of points of difference. Our small margin simply can't withstand this level of sweeping ups and downs.#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
The seven-day plan was rejected; the core issue is not the conditions themselves but the deadlock over "who moves first." Iran wants the US to lift sanctions first, while the US wants Iran to open the Strait first.
Iran conveyed a plan via Qatar: the US would implement lifting sanctions, unfreeze assets, and stop fighting in Lebanon within 4 to 5 days; the Strait would reopen on the sixth day; and final negotiations would start on the seventh day. Trump directly rejected this on the 26th, stating "complete control of the Strait," and informed aides that bombing might resume after the midterm elections.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi responded: the plan's content is not new conditions but matters the US had already committed to in the June memorandum, and "there will be no concessions."
The result is: the earliest indirect talks between the US and Iran will restart on the 28th, but the core obstacle is the fundamental conflict in issue prioritization. Iran wants to separate the nuclear issue from the Strait, while the US wants to link the two.
Oil prices responded to the deadlock by rising. Brent intraday returned to $99.49, WTI at $94.66, both up over 2%. Daily traffic through the Strait remains far below pre-war levels.
Negotiations are ongoing, but both sides are reinforcing their bottom lines with military language; whoever concedes first loses. For BTC, high oil prices lock in inflation expectations, making a September rate hike less likely to be reduced, and the valuation ceiling for risk assets continues to be pressured. Watch for procedural consensus in the indirect talks on the 28th—that will be the next signal.🔥 This time I won't be stubborn, I'm shorting ETH.
📉 Why?
First, there are many positives, but the volume hasn't significantly increased. The higher the price goes, the more worried I am about a sell-off at the top.
⚠️ Second, ETH/BTC is clearly weak. BTC is slightly stabilizing, but ETH started dropping first. This relative weakness makes me uneasy about going long.
📊 Third, the resistance above is dense. The closer the rebound gets to the pressure zone, the more comfortable it is for the bears.
🎯 But I won't blindly chase shorts.
Position size is only 2%, with 3x leverage;
Wait for a rebound before shorting again;
If it breaks the previous high, I admit I'm wrong;
The target is first the previous low, then at halving, move the remaining position to trailing stop profit.
💰 The biggest fear in trading is not losing once, but losing and still trying to prove you're right.
No holding, no gambling, no getting emotional.
🧠 Going long requires confidence, going short requires even more discipline.
Will ETH let me take fewer hits this time? What do you think? $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Don’t let the headline “total unrealized profit” fool you into thinking the bulls are comfortably in control. On paper, bulls are sitting on around 2,322,900 U in unrealized profit. Sounds massive. 👀 But look deeper: 🔴 Only 41.35% of bulls are currently profitable 🔴 A large portion of the reported profit is concentrated among a small group 🔴 More than half of the bulls are still underwater Meanwhile, bears have around 303,600 U in total unrealized losses — but nearly 60% of bears are actuall🔥Sorry, this time I'm taking a short position.
Brothers, for this ETH rebound, I choose to short.
It's not about being bearish, but the market situation makes me more cautious.
📉 First glance: The bullish calls are loud, but volume hasn't clearly followed, and the rally feels like a high-level shakeout.
⚠️ Second glance: ETH/BTC is clearly weak, BTC is catching a slight breather, but ETH turns down first.
📊 Third glance: Layers of trapped positions above are pressing down; when the rebound hits resistance, it easily becomes a spot for shorts to re-enter.
🎯 My plan is simple:
Don't chase shorts, just wait for the rebound;
Position size 2%, 3x leverage;
If it breaks previous highs, admit being wrong;
First watch the previous low, halve position at the target, then move stop profit for the rest.
No holding losing positions, no stubbornness.
🧠 I'm not a short god, just don't want to stand on the mountaintop waiting to break even again.
ETH, every time you give me hope, you end up teaching me a lesson.
Are you bullish or bearish this time? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ETH Today, staring at the K-line suddenly made me want to cry. Thinking carefully, I've been losing continuously for more than a year. Every time someone asks me how I keep losing money yet still trade crypto, I answer that I got addicted after making many multiples at the start. In reality, I have never actually made money. I never dared to go all in, yet I slowly lost everything.
It's time to admit it: I damn well don't understand this damn K-line.
I simply can't make sense of these complicated damn economic data or what the damn Fed rate hikes or cuts really mean.
I try to imitate those trading masters, drawing everywhere, watching economists analyze over and over.
I look at the messy lines I drew tangled together on the charts and suddenly don't know what I'm even doing.
But ironically, it seems like besides these K-lines I don't understand, there's nothing else I can understand.
When I see the price make a standard breakout, I chase in, but end up closing my position repeatedly after being deceived.
Late at night, listening to the Fed's speeches, watching the price break through my mental defenses, I ultimately couldn't hold onto my views.
Entering with a light position, I don't believe I can recover and profit through compounding; entering heavy messes with my mind.
Fate says I have no luck with windfalls; I didn't believe it until I saw the price just hit my stop loss and then reversed. I really feel lost.
Tried opening positions with so-called signal teachers, but it just so happened that when I opened, they made mistakes.
🤕
Having vented, I gather my feelings and continue trading.
$BTC $ETH Micron will announce its fiscal Q4 2026 results in the early morning of October 1 Beijing time. Last quarter's revenue was $41.46 billion, up 346% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 84.9%.
The company's own guidance for this quarter is revenue around $50 billion, gross margin about 86%, and earnings per share around $31. UBS and other institutions have revised upward, seeing revenue of $52.4 billion.
What really needs attention is not whether it "beats expectations," but whether three key statements have changed. First, can price increases continue? This quarter, DRAM and NAND average prices are both estimated to rise about 20% quarter-over-quarter; volume growth is not exaggerated, and profits mainly come from price. Second, how long will the shortage last?
Last quarter, management said they do not see a point when supply will catch up with demand; tight supply will last at least until after 2027; some institutions see the HBM shortage lasting until 2028. Third, long-term contracts and buybacks. Micron has signed more than a dozen strategic supply agreements with guaranteed minimum revenue of about $100 billion; the buyback window restricted by the CHIPS Act will lift on December 9, and how cash is returned to shareholders will change valuation narratives.
The implication for A-shares is very direct: global manufacturers are still using earnings reports to price storage. Institutions see server DDR and SSD demand doubling, capacity is being drawn away by HBM, and consumer-grade chips are tightening accordingly. Domestically, watch for Yangtze Memory's G5 mass production, module factory orders, and interface chips; do not expect a daily limit rise. If the earnings report is only "better than guidance, with guidance continuing to be revised upward," the sector trades on how long the boom can last, not on whether there is a boom. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 🌍Planet Evening News
Goldman Sachs is introducing its approximately $100 billion FTIX treasury fund to an Avalanche-based institutional network.
FTIX will be traded through the Lynq platform. Lynq is a private, permissioned Avalanche L1 trading platform currently used by over 30 digital asset companies, including Wintermute, Galaxy, FalconX, Crypto.com, and Fireblocks.
FTIX will become the first external fund launched on the Lynq platform, providing institutional investors a way to hold cash between trades, earn yield, and redeploy funds as needed.
Unlike BlackRock's BUIDL or Franklin Templeton's BENJI, FTIX is not tokenized.
Instead, the Avalanche-based Lynq platform will serve as a new distribution channel for Goldman Sachs' existing traditional treasury fund.
$AVAX Micron will release orders early tomorrow morning, and the A-share storage sector has already started to run ahead these past two days. Don't treat Micron as just a US stock story; it’s more like a global storage thermometer: whether prices will still rise, how long the shortage will last, and whether next quarter’s guidance dares to be raised again. If these three points are right, then A-share stocks like Jiangbolong, Baiwei, Demingli, Zhaoyi, and Lanqi will see a second wave; if wrong, it will just be a continuation of the correction since July.
Last quarter, Micron already clarified the logic: AI servers have turned memory into a strategic material, ordinary DRAM and NAND production capacity has been cut, and price is more important than shipment volume.
Domestically, Changxin’s G5 is in mass production, and the half-year report shows explosive profits for original manufacturers, indicating that domestic supply is filling the gap, but it’s filling the mid-to-low end and domestic chain; the global high-end gap still lies with Micron, Samsung, and Hynix. So when Micron says the shortage will continue, A-share module manufacturers benefit from price increases and stocking differences; if Micron says demand is flattening and long-term contracts lock in price ceilings, the elasticity here will be cut first.
In terms of operations, I no longer fully load positions to bet after the earnings release. I keep positions in segments I understand: original manufacturers and module makers with chip inventory, which track prices better than pure concept stocks. After the earnings report lands, watch two things—whether next quarter’s guidance approaches $58 billion, and whether management still dares to say the shortage will last beyond 2027. If they do, then talk about replenishment; if not, let profits run for a while. This round of storage is not about whether there is demand, but that demand has already been priced in by the stock market in advance. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Dare to let me make some money, this $ETH Ethereum, is it really determined to mess with the bears?
Just stubbornly refuses to drop, right? It's not even the weekend yet, already hovering around 2700, can't hold the rise, just facing pressure from the bears, forcing people to cut losses and run.
Even when it falls, it only drops a little, teasing the bears for no reason, like filming a blockbuster heist movie here. With the current market, opening a position requires playing psychological games.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH Today I came across the Fed's dot plot; out of 18 officials, 16 believe there will be one more rate hike this year.
Some people in the group panicked again, saying it's over, the tightening curse hasn't been lifted yet.
At noon, I was walking around downstairs at the company to aid digestion, thinking about this matter, and the more I thought, the happier I got. The dot plot, to put it simply, reflects the officials' "current thoughts." During the 2023 rate hike cycle, the dot plot indicated many more hikes to come, but what happened? They eventually couldn't hike anymore, and the market immediately rushed to price in rate cuts. History always repeats like this; the official dot plot is always behind the market.
Now the interest rate is already at 3.75%-4%. Even if there is one more hike, it will top out around 4.25%. This peak is the foundation for the next easing cycle. Once the foundation is laid, the building can rise higher. For a highly elastic community asset like Dogecoin, once rates turn down, it moves faster than anyone else.
While others worry about the dot plot, I watch it to count the days: the closer to easing, the closer to Doge's takeoff. Hold on, don't let go before dawn. $DOGE Old Leek Observation】
$XRP
There was a change in XRP's upgrade node today.
Originally, the market was focused on the XRPL Batch upgrade scheduled for September 29, but the XRPL official urgently released version 3.4.1 on September 25 to fix security-sensitive issues and added a new fixBatchV1_2 amendment. The original Batch upgrade expectation has therefore been postponed, and the official currently expects the new fix to be activated on October 9.
However,.$BTC #MicronEarningsAhead $0G
For coins that crash to the bottom, then consolidate sideways for a long time before rebounding, I won't short them, at least not for now.
Because you never know how strong the rebound can be. If you open a position at the wrong time, you might have to hold for a long time. If the funding fees rise again, it will only make things worse. Just look at $ONE as a reference.
I’m still holding a position in $NMR, it’s really tough. It’s been a day and it just won’t drop further. Although it has fallen a bit, this time I want to hold on a bit longer and gain more before exiting. I can’t just hold the position for nothing.
Finally, I hope the market makers give me some face and stop grinding my funding fees. Little by little, it adds up, and it’s really painful… ⚡ Bitcoin has retraced 33.5% from its all-time high, but what’s truly worth watching is the once-in-24-years turmoil in the U.S. Treasury market.
On October 6 last year, Bitcoin surged to its all-time high of $126,272.
Today, its price is about $83,900.
That’s a drop of approximately 33.5% from that peak.
But what’s even more notable:
At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields are experiencing the most intense surge in nearly 24 years.
📊 Let’s first look at Bitcoin’s historical benchmarks
October 6, 2025: Bitcoin peak at $126,272
Today’s price: about $83,905
Retracement from peak: about 33.5%
30-day performance: about +8.06%
In other words, although it has dropped over 30% from the peak, it has actually been gradually recovering over the past month; the market is not entirely weakening.
💡 A key judgment
Looking only at the 33% retracement, many might think it’s a severe drop.
But in the context of Bitcoin’s historical cycles, this is not extreme:
2018: Fell from about $20,000 to just over $3,000, a drop of over 80%
2022: Fell from about $69,000 to $15,000, a drop of nearly 80%
This time: Fell from around $126,000 to about $83,000, a retracement of about 33%
Compared to the previous two, this looks more like a sharp correction at a high level rather than a full bear market.
⚠️ The truly historic event is not in the crypto market, but in the bond market
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently surged to 5.24%-5.27%, the highest since 2007.
The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.55%-5.58%, the highest in nearly 24 years since 2002.
This means:
The global "risk-free asset" pricing benchmark is under rare selling pressure not seen in the past 24 years.
Typically, a bond bear market of this magnitude puts pressure on stocks, gold, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets.
Gold has clearly fallen today, but Bitcoin has relatively withstood the pressure, firmly holding above $83,000.
🔍 Why look at these two events together?
In past Bitcoin crashes, market panic usually led to funds selling off all risk assets first.
But this time, despite the once-in-24-years turmoil in the bond market, Bitcoin’s decline has been relatively restrained.
This itself is a signal worth noting:
The pricing logic of this crypto market cycle may already be different from the past.
📌 Final summary
A 33.5% retracement is not new in Bitcoin’s history.
What’s truly new is:
The once-in-24-years turmoil in the bond market + Bitcoin’s relative resilience.
The upcoming PCE data will be the first key test to see if this logic can continue.
💬 Which Bitcoin crash have you experienced?
Was it the 2018 drop from $20,000 to just over $3,000, or the 2022 drop from $69,000 to $15,000?
Share your "blood and tears" story in the comments below 👇
⚠️ The data in this article comes from public market quotes and historical records, for review and analysis only, and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is historically volatile; please view price cycles rationally.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Bitcoin Review: Position Management Amid High-Level Volatility
Looking again at Bitcoin, after the surge, it did not continue its upward momentum directly; the market has been caught in repeated back-and-forth tugging. Every attempt to test resistance levels upward meets selling pressure and suppression, while on the pullback, funds enter to support, causing repeated oscillations and consolidation within the support and resistance range. The spike up and subsequent pullback repeatedly occur, clearing out many short-term positions in the tug-of-war.
The resistance around 84200‑85200 is very clear; every time this range is touched, selling pressure concentrates and releases. Support near 83105 also has funds propping it up, making it difficult for a decisive one-sided move in the short term. Market bulls and bears are increasingly divided, with neither side gaining absolute control.
Currently, the logic behind fund allocation in the market is especially clear: before an effective breakout above resistance, funds are reluctant to launch a large-scale attack. In the short term, it’s mostly a range-bound battle, with no room to break upward and support holding downward. At this stage, avoid blindly chasing highs or selling lows; do not let short-term spikes during trading disturb your judgment. Wait for the market to choose a direction before increasing your position, which will be much safer.
$BTC #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 The three assets $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL are showing three different layers of cash flow. $BTC is the main liquidity layer: when BTC holds the base, the altcoin market conditions stabilize more. $ETH requires monitoring of relative strength and volume to identify whether cash flow is shifting to the ecosystem. $SOL is sensitive to risk appetite, so its upward moves are usually fast but sell-offs are also intense. If the price rises while OI increases too quickly, caution is needed; if OI decreases during a correction, leverage pressure may be releasing.Term Structure Radar
$BTC annualized pricing at three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +4.72%/+5.43%/+5.15% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$332.8.
$ETH annualized basis decreases with expiration term: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +5.27%/+4.68%/+4.51% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$12.04. The near-term annualized basis is higher than the far-term, with higher annualized pricing concentrated near term.
$SOL annualized pricing at three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +2.17%/+2.22%/+1.21% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$0.22.
BTC, SOL: The mid-term expiration breaks the monotonic arrangement; the difference between near and far terms is insufficient to summarize the entire curve.
BTC, ETH, SOL: All three expiration points are in contango.Brothers, today my account finally got a breath of fresh air, the two short positions on $MUBARAK and $ZEC finally gave me some relief.
First, look at MUBARAK, I entered the short at 0.076852, now the mark price is 0.061898, floating profit +1.48U, return +58.15%. A demon coin is a demon coin, it pulls up recklessly and dumps even more recklessly. A few days ago it was pulled from 0.045 to 0.076, I was so trapped I almost panicked, luckily I didn’t cut losses, instead I added shorts at the high, and now I’m finally making some profit.
Next, look at ZEC, the short at 868.79, from a peak floating loss of -273% holding on to now -197.28%, margin 52.8U, liquidation price 2673. Although still at a loss, it dropped from 1660 to 1440, down 220 points, finally getting through the toughest part.
Why did I recover today?
First, the overall market is weak. The total crypto market cap has fallen from its peak, Bitcoin is stuck around 85,000, funds are withdrawing from high volatility assets. MUBARAK and ZEC, which surged the most earlier, face the biggest correction pressure.
Second, the fuel for short squeeze is burned out. When ZEC was rising, shorts were liquidated round after round, now shorts are mostly cleared, the squeeze momentum is exhausted. Without new long funds taking over, the price naturally can’t hold.
Third, profit-taking is starting. ZEC rose from 1295 to 1660, nearly 30% in five days, MUBARAK from 0.045 to 0.076, a huge short-term gain. The sharper the rise, the harsher the correction, that’s iron law.
What’s next?
Keep holding the MUBARAK short, stop loss above 0.07, target first at 0.055. For ZEC, 1440 below is key support, break it and it’s 1375, break again and it’s 1300. I’ll keep holding the short, stop loss above 1600.
Brothers, this recovery wasn’t easy, but don’t be greedy. The nature of demon coins is wild rises and falls, take a bite and run, don’t get attached to the fight.
$BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 🔥This market feels like a roller coaster ride, and damn, no seatbelt fastened!
📉 BTC just rebounded to around 84000 due to the Fed's dovish tilt, but large on-chain transfers are picking up again. Bulls and bears are battling back and forth, taking turns getting slapped.
🐋 Some shout that the bull is coming, but whales are quietly moving coins to exchanges. Translation: bullish words, but hands are getting ready to run.
⚠️ ETH around 2700 is equally awkward; there are many ecosystem stories, but no fresh capital, so the price struggles to keep up.
🎰 SOL near 120 still carries Meme afterglow, with big holders reducing positions and retail FOMOing. In this kind of market, the worst is catching the last baton yourself.
📊 This week PCE and Nonfarm payrolls are coming one after another, volatility could spike anytime.
💰 My approach is simple: cash is king, small positions if itchy, don’t gamble your living expenses on tomorrow.
Do you think this wave is a reversal or just another fakeout? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC The $85K Test for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has slipped below $85,000, and now everyone is asking what caused the drop.
But maybe the better question is being overlooked.
The common market narrative is that a large number of holders have their cost basis around $84K–$85K, making this zone an important area of support.
But there’s another way to look at it.
What does a heavy concentration of cost bases actually tell us about $BTC?
It could reveal where traders are most likely to react.
#DailyOrbit #ThisWeekWelcomesKeyNonfarmAndPCEData The data is out: US August JOLTS job openings at 7.079 million, below the expected 7.225 million, and the previous value was revised up from 7.271 million to 7.335 million. In other words, the actual number is nearly 150,000 less than expected and more than 250,000 less than the revised previous value.
This is another solid sign of cooling in the labor market.
What does this data mean?
JOLTS is one of the Federal Reserve's most closely watched labor market indicators, measuring the number of positions companies "want to fill but haven't yet." The more openings, the stronger the demand for labor, leading to higher wage and inflation pressures; fewer openings indicate companies are cutting back on hiring and the labor market is cooling down.
The 7.079 million figure is the lowest level since September 2020. Compared to the low of 6.54 million at the end of 2025, it hasn't reached that point yet, but the trend is clear: hiring demand is steadily weakening.
For the Fed, this is what they've been waiting for. Wash has been saying "the labor market is no longer overheated," and the JOLTS data provides ammunition for this assessment.
Transmission chain to the crypto space:
JOLTS weakening → labor market cooling → easing rate hike pressure → rising expectations of lower US Treasury yields → weaker dollar → risk assets (including $BTC and $ETH) get breathing room. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
But don't celebrate too soon. This chain has a fatal break: inflation.
JOLTS only reflects the demand side. If oil prices remain above $90, energy costs continue to pass through to consumers, the Fed won't dare to cut rates just because employment is cooling. The September ISM manufacturing price component has stuck at a high 71.1 for two consecutive months, with respondents reporting rising fuel and petroleum product prices—this is the real headache for the Fed.
So the current market logic is extremely conflicted: poor employment data first triggers a wave of "rate cut expectations," then the market realizes inflation is still high and sells off. This explains why BTC is repeatedly bottoming around 83,000, unable to break up or down.
BTC's current position:
BTC is currently around $83,300, barely above the 365-day moving average; 88,700 (the two-year moving average) is the ceiling. ETF inflows plunged from 999 million on September 25 to 134.5 million, the infusion pipe is nearly clogged.
JOLTS below expectations is a short-term positive for risk asset sentiment but not strong enough to break through 88,700. The real direction will be decided by Wednesday's PCE and Friday's nonfarm data. If PCE is also below expectations, BTC has a chance to challenge 85,000–87,000; if PCE exceeds expectations, the JOLTS boost will be instantly wiped out, and the 83,000 support will be tested again.
Summary #创作者激励
Employment is cooling, but inflation is not. The Fed is stuck in the middle, BTC is stuck at 83,000.
Tonight's JOLTS opened a window for the market, but whether it's clear skies or a storm outside depends on the inflation data in the next couple of days. Don't rush to jump in, wait for the signal.😅$ZEC 🔥 Today's rally looks like a reversal, but I'm more interested in the positions behind it.
📈 BTC, ETH, and SOL all bounced back together, and OKB surged with a big bullish candle. Why were the first two falling just a few days ago, and now suddenly they all rise together?
💥 One key explanation is: front-running data + short covering.
When short positions are crowded, the market only needs a bit of incremental buying to trigger a cascade of liquidations, pushing prices up quickly.
⚠️ But the biggest risk with this kind of rally is mistaking "position squeeze" for a "fundamental reversal."
PCE and non-farm payroll data haven't been released yet, and Fed officials will continue to send signals.
🎯 So I'd rather make less profit now than bet heavily on direction before the data.
Wait for the answers, then decide what to do.
📌 One bullish candle can't change the macro environment; a true trend requires confirmation from both data and price.
Tonight, will you choose to hold on or reduce your risk first? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% US Treasury yields have been rising steadily, yet the US stock market hasn't crashed and can even hit new highs — according to textbooks, this shouldn't happen, as interest rates are the anchor for asset pricing, and when the anchor rises, valuations should be suppressed.
This time, the support comes from earnings:
Forward P/E ratios have been compressed to around 19 times, while EPS growth is close to 29%. Earnings have firmly capped valuations, and the options market's dynamics have further amplified this resilience.
But there's a premise often overlooked: today's US stock market has been redefined by a few tech giants, making the index increasingly resemble a growth stock portfolio concentrated in a few companies.
Under this structure, using traditional valuation frameworks to judge market tops and bottoms will result in significant errors.Every time the Federal Reserve signals a rate cut, the brothers in the community always debate: does the capital go to buy BTC for hedging, or to buy ETH for speculation? I used to guess blindly, buying big cake $BTC today, chasing Ethereum $ETH tomorrow, and ended up getting slapped on both ends.
Later, I had an in-depth chat with a friend who does macro hedging at Tsinghua Shenzhen Institute, and finally figured it out! In the eyes of big money, these two are not even in the same track: buying $BTC is betting on "fiat over-issuance and sovereign credit crisis," it is a sovereign-less store of value; while buying ETH is betting on "the activity of the Web3 financial settlement network," it is a tech infrastructure with its own cash flow!
When liquidity is just released at the early stage of a rate cut, capital first seeks the safest and most consensual macro hedge, so big cake absorbs the blood first; only when macro risks are resolved and market risk appetite is extremely exuberant does capital spill over to pursue high beta returns on the ETH chain! The rhythm of capital inflow and outflow exists, following the money is the way to make money! The chessboard is already set, yet ninety percent of players are still counting how many pawns they've lost.
Tokens like $xUSAR, which represent US stock tokenization, are not a new type of chess game; rather, they move the castling on the New York chessboard into a dark room with all-day trading. You think you're trading a coin, but in reality, you're simultaneously playing against Wall Street's opening library, Asian time zone liquidity, and the weekend market gaps. This is a classic double-board endgame—the main board is paused in someone else's hands, while the secondary board still moves before you, and the price difference is that torn diagonal line.
What is a stop loss? It's you proactively exchanging pieces in a disadvantageous endgame, admitting you missed some variations along the way, preserving the king, and waiting for the next opening. What is position management? It's the valuation of pieces—pawns worth one, knights and bishops three, rooks five, queens nine—but true grandmasters never use fixed scales; they look at board control, passed pawns, and whose center is stronger. If you put eighty percent of your pieces on a single tokenized asset, that's not an attack; that's exposing your king's flank.
My worst game wasn't lost because of the opponent's sacrificed pieces, but because of my own obsession with "just one more move to turn the game around" three times in a row. The same script plays out daily in the market: averaging down means continuing to place pieces on a square already under check, only hastening the checkmate. The best moves are never the sensational queen sacrifices but quietly repositioning the rook to the only open file when no one is watching.
Volatility is the opponent's clock. When it's fast, you must be steady; when it's slow, you must seize the initiative to create threats. The mismatch between US stock spreads and crypto liquidity is like giving away pawns in the endgame—free gifts often come with poison, so calculate the three variations before taking them.
The real difference isn't how many opening books you've read but seeing the pawn promotion on move 41 at move 23. Market linkage isn't noise from news but the hesitation of the opponent's fingers when making a move, the ticking second on the clock. Remember, every move counts because the board won't replay your regrets. #okxtradervoices⚠️ SHORTS ALERT | LIQUIDITY IN PLAY
$BTC is hovering around $84K — short setups need confirmation, not assumptions.
🔴 Below $83K → watch $81.5K–$82K
🟡 $83K–$85K → likely chop zone
🟢 Above $85K → squeeze risk starts rising
$ETH $2.68K | $SOL $115 | $ZEC remains highly volatile
Stay patient. Wait for the setup to confirm, manage stops, and protect your capital. 🧠
#DailyOrbit #MicronEarningsAhead #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh ETH this morning stood back at $2,700 according to OKX data, reporting $2,700.73, up 0.86% intraday (PANews, September 29). The lower boundary at $2,630 held, next to watch is the upper boundary at $2,720; only if it stabilizes there will it retest $2,800, otherwise it may pull back to around $2,550 (Traders Union, no publication date noted on the page). Institutional money hasn't left the market, just split into two paths: on September 28, the net inflow for spot Ethereum ETFs was only $17.1 million, while SharpLink staked 42,074 ETH in reverse, with total holdings reaching 892,000 ETH (Traders Union). $ETH