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Can't rise but also can't fall
So hard to endure, now it rises again
Wait, will it fall again at midnight?
$ETH short position at 2640 is still open, now it has rebounded to around 2680, floating loss back to about 600U.
Although the 1-hour chart has risen above the short moving average again, it never truly broke through around 2700, and it didn't continue to drop around 2630 either; short-term is still oscillating.
Looking above at 2700–2720, as long as this resistance holds, I'll keep waiting for a pullback; if it breaks below 2670 again, then look at 2640–2630.
$ZEC is even weaker
Now around 1526, the 1-hour short moving averages are pressing from above, after dropping from 1695 earlier, the rebound strength is getting weaker. If 1520 is lost again, there is still room to continue giving back below.
So now just keep waiting for ETH to choose its own direction.
Sideways movement is the most frustrating, but the position has been held this far; if there is really another pullback at midnight, let's see if 2640 can be broken down again.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 The biggest lesson from last night wasn’t about how the market moves, but rather—never make decisions when you’re sleepy.
In the middle of the night, I impulsively opened a $WLD long position, my mind not fully clear, and when I woke up, the position had already been stopped out.
Looking back at that trade now, even I find it a bit ridiculous.
The biggest fear in trading isn’t making the wrong call,
but placing orders without a plan.
On the other hand, $PUMP hit the target set yesterday, successfully locking in about 3000U.
One loss and one gain together actually made me more certain:
What really needs to be controlled isn’t the market, but your own hands.
Currently, I still have a $SOON long position and a new coin long position under observation.
$SOON’s recent movement is quite intriguing; I’ll be closely watching whether it’s truly weakening or just shaking out short-term holders through repeated fluctuations.
For now, I’m holding my positions steady and waiting for the market to give its own answer.
As for myself...
Not wanting to work ≠ being able to skip work.
When the alarm rings, you still have to get up, squeeze into the subway, and keep grinding.
In crypto, if there’s market action, watch it; if not, go to work.
Have you ever had that kind of trade where you impulsively acted in the middle of the night and regretted it the next day?🔥A major market move might really be coming.
A few days ago, I predicted BTC would oscillate upward between 87,000 and 76,000, but now I'm starting to be cautious about the upcoming directional choice.
What concerns me most is not the short-term ups and downs, but how smoothly the new and old chips are exchanging hands.
Especially in an environment where interest rate hike expectations are heating up, the fact that BTC's pullback is less than 2% shows that the market's support strength is not as weak as imagined.
So I've already adjusted my stop loss near the cost; for me, holding positions now has entered a relatively safe zone.
Base position at 87,000, first add at 84,700, combined with high-level short positions as a hedge, enough to cope with the upcoming intense volatility.
BTC is currently grinding repeatedly around 83,000; I’m not guessing which way it will go.
The market direction will most likely be decided in the next couple of days.
My plan is simple: keep holding, with a target to take profit at 77,000.
Do you think BTC is accumulating strength this time or preparing for a trend reversal? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $BTC is sitting at roughly $84,406, essentially flat over 24 hours, and that stillness is the story. The most important question in this market is not whether $QNT or $TAO can extend their rallies, but whether Bitcoin can convert the 84K region into a genuine breakout rather than another rejected probe. The trigger is specific: a close above 85K on rising volume. Without it, the upside remains a hypothesis, not a regime change. And even that signal comes with a caveat — if $ETH keeps underperfor⚡ Black Monday, the market continues to decline steadily, but $HBAR is strengthening against the trend with increased volume!
As of September 28, $HBAR is around $0.115, with a 24H increase of about 21%–23%, and trading volume expanded to approximately $5.8B–$6.5B, significantly outperforming the market.
📈 What’s worth noting about this rise is not just the increase, but the volume-price coordination: the volume surge indicates a clear strengthening of buying interest.
On the fundamentals side, Hedera focuses on enterprise-grade DLT, RWA tokenization, and continues to attract attention from AI agents, payments, and enterprise application narratives.
At the same time, the strengthening of enterprise blockchain assets like QNT may also bring sector capital rotation.
🔥 In a weak market, targets that show strength and increased volume against the trend are often more worthy of being added to the watchlist.
#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #HBAR #Hedera #Crypto #dailyorbitIt's 1 AM and I still haven't slept, took another look at the Ouyi gainers list—$MON is really holding strong this round, spot price around 0.0292, daily low at 0.0263 touched up, daily high peaked at 0.0306, about +11% in 24 hours, with trading volume still hanging around 14 million USD.
The market $BTC is grinding near 83600, $ETH around 2685, but MON is pushing itself up on the hot list. The volume isn't fake, but don't get too hyped if it surges too fast.
I'll first see if it can hold around 0.0285; if it breaks, then look back to 0.027; if it can stabilize above 0.030, then we can talk about continuation. It's late at night, don't chase highs recklessly.
$BTC $ETH $MON #MON #HotList #GainersList #RiskWarning
Investment carries risks, the above is just personal observation and not advice. ⚠️ The 3 most important signals to watch today
1️⃣ BTC $82K
Hold → Bulls continue; break below → prevent a quick retest of $80K.
2️⃣ ETH 2,625
Breakthrough and hold → ETH takeover signal strengthens, altcoins may see a second wave of rally.
3️⃣ ETF fund flow
If BTC price consolidates/corrects, but ETF continues to maintain net inflow, this is the potential opportunity I consider most worth watching currently;
Conversely, if ETF suddenly turns negative consecutively, risks will clearly increase.
Today's overall judgment: 🟢 Slightly bullish with fluctuations. Here's a more natural, concise Chinese version suitable for OKX release, preserving the original ETH key data and logic:
⚡ $ETH: First a wick, then bullish?
I won’t rush to chase short-term longs. It currently looks like a liquidation shakeout is needed to digest the leverage below before watching for bullish opportunities.
📍 Around $32.12M whale long positions are stacked in the $ETH 2614–2632 range, with the largest liquidation line near 2613.
Short-term focus:
2630 → 2622 → 2614
If 2614 breaks, the next target is 2550.
Meanwhile, ETH futures open interest has dropped by about 500,000 contracts over nearly 4 days, indicating cooling leverage.
The trend remains bullish, but don’t rush short-term. 👀
First watch for liquidations, then see if capital steps back in.
#ThisWeekNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsWatch #USIranContinueNegotiationsOnHormuzOpening #dailyorbitThis time, I really give up.
This round of pullback in $BTC dragged $ZEC and $SUI down together. My original judgment did not develop as expected, and stubbornly holding on will only make the problem worse.
So this time I chose to clear out all my positions.
It's not because I suddenly turned bearish,
but because I finally understood one thing:
Making a wrong judgment is not scary; the scariest thing is to keep adding to your mistakes even after knowing they are wrong.
In the 82,000–84,000 range, I paid a lot of tuition for "averaging up against the trend."
I used to think that if I waited a bit longer, it would come back,
but now I realize the market never gives you a second chance just because you refuse to admit defeat.
After cutting losses, I actually feel relieved.
Next, I won’t try to guess the bottom or rush to recover losses.
The focus is to observe whether $BTC can reclaim key levels,
and whether $ZEC and $SUI show real signs of stabilization.
If conditions appear, I will reconsider the next steps.
I’ll keep watching the market tonight but only trade what I understand.
Do you think this pullback is not over yet, or has the next rebound already started brewing?
$BTC $ZEC $SUILong position entered at 82,000, reduced position at 83,000, but the return rate was only 15%.
This is not a matter of luck. Leverage amplifies price fluctuations into returns and compresses holding time into a function of psychological endurance. No matter how accurate the entry price is, holding one more day in a volatile market means the unrealized loss figure influences the decision once more.
What truly determines whether this trade can be cashed out is not the entry point, but the rhythm of reducing the position. The act of partial closing itself indicates that the holder has broken down "holding on" into executable segments, rather than relying solely on willpower to endure.
Going forward, you can monitor the funding rate of perpetual contracts. If the funding rate remains positive during price consolidation, it indicates that longs are still paying to hold positions, making this segmented position reduction behavior more common.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $ETH First kill leverage, then talk about counterattack
Don't rush to go long now. There are huge whale long positions clustered below, and the market will most likely dip down first to clear leverage before providing comfortable long points. The overall trend is still bullish, but the rhythm requires guarding against a sharp drop first.
$ETH: Around $32.12 million long positions clustered between 2614—2632, with liquidation line concentrated near 2613. Short-term targets are 2630, 2622, 2614 in sequence; if broken, 2550 may be tested. Futures open interest has dropped by about 500,000 contracts over four days, and leverage ratio has fallen back to March lows, more like active deleveraging rather than a trend reversal. Wait for whales to be liquidated and price to stabilize above 2630 before adding longs more securely. Aggressive traders should only open light initial positions and keep remaining funds for the dip.
$ZEC: Market cap about $26.4 billion. Supports at 1550, 1500; resistances at 1600, 1685. Trend is intact but volatility is high, so avoid chasing the rally.
SNDK: Supports at 1740, 1680; resistances at 1815, 1900. AI server NAND demand is a long-term logic, but after continuous rises valuation is not low, so better to buy on pullbacks.
Summary: This round looks more like killing leverage first then pumping. Initial positions can be tried, but don't use all your ammo at once. Truly comfortable long positions should wait until whales have been flushed out once.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC dropped continuously from 21:30 to 23:00, with one bearish candle after another, plunging directly from 83,566 to 82,556. The margin ratio in my account jumped, and my heartbeat followed with three beats. At that moment, the only thought in my mind was: tonight's late-night snack might have to be downgraded from grilled skewers to instant noodles.
Let's first talk about "why the drop" — half of the blame goes to Trump.
Last weekend, the US rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sharply increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude oil prices surged to $106, and WTI rose to around $94. When oil prices soar, inflation expectations soar with them, and capital instinctively flows to safe-haven assets. The problem is — gold is also falling, with spot gold down over 2% and silver down over 3%. What does this indicate? It means this is not a "safe-haven rotation," but a broad deleveraging. QCP analysts put it bluntly: Bitcoin fell from 84,500 to 82,800, Nasdaq 100 pre-market dropped from 744 to 737, and the US dollar index is also declining. This is not capital fleeing crypto to gold; everyone is reducing positions. Simply put, everyone is running together, so no one should mock anyone else.
Meanwhile, the market is still digesting the Fed's September 16 rate hike — 25 basis points, pushing the rate range to 3.75%-4%. CME data shows traders are now pricing in a 64.8% probability of another 25 basis point hike in October.Big $ZEC move just caught my attention.
Lee Goon Wang reportedly placed a limit sell order for 15,000 $ZEC, worth roughly $23M.
The unusual part? The order was set around $30 below the market price — about a 2% discount.
That’s a sizable sell wall worth watching.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead
#HormuzTermsInFocus $BTC
This is exactly what I was talking about...
But now, the data perspective has changed.
We’ve already retraced around half of yesterday’s move, but this time funding has flipped back significantly positive while OI going sideways.
This tells us that shorts are being closed while perp longs are starting to enter the market again. Yesterday, longs got squeezed completely. Now, after shorts are closing they are reopening their positions, trying to catch the bottom. The signal of a sudden shift in the wind has arrived. The U.S. side, through intermediaries, conveyed that as long as Iran makes concrete and substantive progress on its nuclear program, it will consider easing sanctions and unfreezing some assets. Once the news broke, the geopolitical risk premium was immediately cut—U.S. crude and Brent crude each dropped about $1 in the short term, with Brent subsequently quoted at around $101.97 per barrel. At the same time window, the crypto market rose briefly, with funds clearly betting on the narrative 'Middle East risk easing → risk assets benefiting.' But don't rush to conclusions: the two sides haven't even agreed on an implementation timeline, and Iran's officials have not formally responded. Currently, it looks more like headline-driven sentiment trading. Next, watch three things: whether there is a clear timeline, whether negotiations suddenly cool off, and whether the linkage between oil prices and crypto prices continues. Recently, gold has once again become a hot topic in the market.
But if you only focus on the rise and fall of gold prices, it's easy to overlook the real variables behind them:
interest rates, dollar expectations, and what changes are happening with global capital.
This week, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and the market's repricing of the interest rate path has put some short-term pressure on gold.
Meanwhile, the new information released from Sino-U.S. economic and trade high-level communications was limited; some of the expected positive factors did not expand further, so the sentiment for risk assets naturally lost some momentum.
However, looking at the longer term, gold's logic does not entirely depend on a single meeting or a single day’s U.S. Treasury fluctuations.
Over the past years, the global central banks' reserve structures, gold allocation demand, and the rebalancing of dollar assets have been continuously changing the flow of funds.
Therefore, I prefer to view gold as a long-term observation asset rather than a short-term target for simply chasing gains or cutting losses.
Short term: watch interest rates and the dollar.
Medium term: watch global capital allocation.
Long term: watch whether the reserve asset structure continues to change.
As for whether now is the "best buying point" for gold, no one can guarantee that.
But one thing is worth pondering:
As more and more capital begins to reassess traditional reserve assets, how much room is left for gold’s long-term story?
Do you think the next phase of gold deserves more attention on interest rates or changes in global capital allocation? 🔥BTC is hovering around 83K, which might be the most worth-watching spot right now.
A few days ago, I was thinking of a volatile rise between 87K and 76K, but the market signals are getting more complex.
🧐 The handover between new and old chips is smooth, and the market is digesting more steadily than expected.
📉 With increased expectations of rate hikes, risk assets should be under more pressure, yet BTC has only dropped less than 2%.
So I’m not planning to keep guessing the top or bottom.
🧱 First, move the stop loss close to the cost, safety first.
💰 My strategy is clear: base position at 87K, first add at 84.7K, and high-level shorts provide a buffer.
Now BTC is hovering around 83K.
🚨 The biggest risk at this position is betting on direction too early.
Wait for it to choose on its own.
If it goes down, I have shorts and cost protection; if it goes up, I won’t panic and exit early.
🎯 The only clear take-profit target now: 77K.
In two days, we might see the answer.
Are you more focused on a break above 83K or a break below it now? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 📊 What really matters about Bitcoin is not just the price, but where the funds are flowing.
Price is just a surface phenomenon; capital flow better reflects the real changes in market demand.
🔥 Spot BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days
As of September 25, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net capital inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative scale close to $3 billion. Among them, the net inflow for the week of September 21–25 was about $2.39 billion, marking one of the strongest weekly performances since 2026.
But one detail cannot be ignored:
On September 21 alone, inflows were nearly $999 million, dropping to about $135 million by September 25. Funds are still flowing in, but the pace is slowing.
🧠 What really needs to be observed is capital allocation
• Continuous ETF inflows → Institutional demand for BTC remains
• BTC falling back near $83K → Watch if funds continue to support
• If ETF inflows remain stable, the pullback may mainly reflect short-term profit-taking
• If capital flow weakens, the upward structure needs to be reassessed
Additionally, ETH and SOL ETFs also recorded net inflows of about $87M and $86.7M respectively on September 25, indicating that funds are not only concentrated in BTC, and some capital is starting to spread to other mainstream assets. 🔥What really makes me cautious is not how much BTC has risen, but why it can't fall.
A few days ago, my scenario was still a volatile rise between 87,000 and 76,000.
But now the market shows a signal worth observing:
🧐The handover between new and old chips is unusually smooth.
📉More importantly, after the increase in interest rate expectations, BTC has only dropped less than 2%.
I dare not draw conclusions about what this means, but at least it shows that the current support is not bad.
🧱So I took the simplest action: moved the stop loss close to the cost.
For me now, safety comes first, then profit.
💰Base position at 87,000, added at 84,700, and high-level short positions as a buffer are enough for me to cope with possible intense fluctuations ahead.
🚨Around 83,000 it continues to grind; the direction probably won't stay hidden for long.
We will see the outcome within two days.
🎯My plan remains unchanged: take profit at 77,000.
Brothers, do you think this big cake is gathering momentum, or is it the calm before the storm? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 To judge ETH's strength or weakness, you cannot look at its USD price in isolation. The ETH/BTC cross-asset ratio is the most core relative strength indicator, and many major cycle turning points are highly correlated with this ratio.
A clear feature this year: during market rebounds, ETH's gains often lag behind BTC; during market pullbacks, ETH's losses are deeper, and the ratio continues to decline, indicating that market risk appetite leans conservative, with funds prioritizing Bitcoin allocation and the premium on Ethereum shrinking.
The trend behind the ratio has several implications: first, in a stock market environment, funds will only choose the most certain targets; second, market confidence in ETH's narrative (L2, ecosystem, tokenomics) is weakening; third, after the launch of ETF products, Bitcoin has stronger institutional liquidity.
When ETH/BTC stabilizes at a key support level and stops making new lows, it may usher in a period of relative strength for ETH, which is the prerequisite for an "altcoin season"; if the ratio continues to break down, even if BTC rises, ETH is likely to underperform.
In the short term: the ratio has entered a low range, representing a "weak but not collapsing" state, with no clear reversal signal yet. In trading, if you are dealing with ETH, you must watch both BTC and this ratio. If BTC crashes, ETH is unlikely to remain unaffected; if BTC consolidates, the ratio determines whether ETH can have an independent rally. Don't simply fantasize about an independent big bull run for ETH; most of the time, ETH follows BTC, and only when the ratio reverses will Ethereum have its own market.$RAY current price is 1.9553, with the first resistance above at MA5 located at 1.9727, and the first support below at the lower Bollinger Band 1.90371. This marks the current boundary between bulls and bears.
Using moving averages to judge if the trend is healthy is simple: check if the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and both are trending upwards. Currently, MA5=1.9727 has crossed below MA20=2.05461, which is a typical bearish alignment, indicating the mid-term trend has deteriorated. A rebound near the moving averages is an opportunity to reduce positions rather than chase longs. Additionally, RSI=32.6 is close to the oversold zone but not yet dulled, and the MACD histogram at -0.01127 is still expanding below the zero line, indicating downward momentum has not exhausted; oversold does not equal bottom.
Funding rate +0.0000% is noteworthy: the price has dropped 10% but the rate has reset to zero, indicating that long leverage has been basically cleared and shorts are not crowded. Under this structure, a technical rebound after a sharp drop is likely, but the rebound height is constrained by MA5.
Operationally, adopt a bearish bias towards rebounds: entry reference is the 1.9727–2.0000 range (MA5 and round number resonance), take profit 1 at 1.90371 (lower Bollinger Band), take profit 2 at 1.8500 (extension of previous low), stop loss above 2.0550 (above MA20, trend reversal signal).[Old Chive Observation]
$NEAR
Bitwise's NEAR spot ETF has completed the key regulatory procedures, with the product code NRR, and is expected to start trading around September 29. This means that starting tomorrow, traditional U.S. securities accounts may directly gain NEAR exposure through the ETF.
Moreover, this ETF does not just buy and hold NEAR.
The prospectus clearly states that the NEAR held by the fund will also be staked. This is quite important.
Previously, NEAR's rise was mainly driven by funds within the crypto market.
Now there is a new capital inflow channel:
Traditional accounts → NRR → Hold NEAR → Stake
NEAR has already partially reflected this in advance.
On September 23, it was still around $4, then it surged to about $5.4.
But you shouldn't chase just because of the ETF.
Tomorrow is the real test of whether funds have come in.
If after the ETF launch NEAR can break through the previous high with volume and hold steady around $5.40, the next targets are $5.75 and then $6.00. If after the ETF launch there is a "good news priced in" drop back below $5, then wait for the next opportunity.
Entry: $4.75–$5.20
Take profit: $5.40 / $5.75 / $6.00 / $6.80
Stop loss: $4.35 🔥I'm actually less afraid of BTC dropping now.
A few days ago, I was firmly expecting a volatile rise between 87,000 and 76,000, but the market changes these days have made me reconsider this scenario.
🧐 The handover between new and old chips is very smooth, and the key is that despite the rising expectations of interest rate hikes, BTC hasn't even dropped 2%.
That's interesting.
📉 If negative news keeps coming but the price doesn't fall, what we really need to watch out for is the direction that follows.
🧱 So I've moved my stop loss close to my cost basis; at least now I don't have to fight the market hard.
💰 My position is a base at 87,000, with the first add at 84,700, and the high-level short positions also give me some buffer.
BTC is currently grinding around 83,000.
🚨 I don't chase, nor do I guess.
If the direction becomes clear in the next couple of days, I'll follow my plan.
🎯 The current target remains: take profit at 77,000.
Do you see 83,000 now as an opportunity or a trap? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 🔥Big moves might really be coming.
A few days ago, I was watching BTC oscillate upward between 87,000 and 76,000, but now I'm starting to be cautious about the real directional choice.
🧐 What concerns me most is not the price rise or fall, but how smoothly the handover between old and new chips is happening.
📉 Especially with rising expectations of interest rate hikes, BTC has only retraced less than 2%, which shows the market support isn't as weak as imagined.
🧱 So I finally honestly moved my stop loss close to the cost.
For me, this has already entered a relatively safe zone.
💰 Base position at 87,000, first add at 84,700, plus hedging with high-level short positions, now I have enough confidence to handle upcoming volatility.
BTC is now grinding around 83,000, I won't guess.
🚨 The direction will most likely be answered in the next couple of days.
My plan is simple: hold and wait to take profit at 77,000.
Do you think BTC is accumulating strength this time or preparing for a trend reversal? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $HBAR is bullish. Positions surged 151% in one day, with price rising synchronously by 35.9%. Price increase accompanied by position increase indicates that new leveraged longs are chasing the price. Liquidations also match: the amount of liquidated shorts is more than half higher than longs, indicating this phase is driven by short stop-loss triggers pushing the price up. The fee rate remains close to the benchmark level, so longs have not paid a congestion cost, and the chasing orders are not overheated. The key lies in the cost zone of the new longs. These longs entered during today's rally, with stop-losses mostly set below the breakout level. Holding above the previous high on pullbacks means these positions are the fuel for the next leg; if the price falls below the previous high, stop-losses will trigger in a chain reaction, causing a retracement as fast as the rise. RSI at 86 indicates momentum is with the bulls, not that a top has been reached. Confirmation of bullish reversal: price stands above 0.12867, and positions continue to increase simultaneously. Bearish reversal condition: price falls back while positions do not decrease but increase, indicating new shorts entering to suppress price and longs chasing higher are trapped, signaling a bearish outlook. $NVDA brothers, come witness the largest buyback in human corporate history!
NVIDIA officially announced tonight an additional $150 billion buyback, equivalent to 1 trillion RMB, bringing the total buyback amount directly to $235 billion. This sum could even buy the entire Kweichow Moutai.
Jensen Huang said the company has very abundant cash flow, able to continuously invest heavily in AI R&D while also returning dividends to shareholders.
The core bullish logic of the US stock market lies here: these top-tier companies earn cash, then buy back and cancel shares, pay dividends, directly boosting earnings per share.
Although NVIDIA is currently the world's largest market cap, the market has always questioned whether AI's high growth can continue, and its valuation has been continuously suppressed.
This large-scale buyback is equivalent to management directly signaling: the current stock price is undervalued.
Another very important change is that overseas capital allocation to US stocks has already surpassed US Treasury bonds.
Many mistakenly think capital is fleeing the US, but actually capital is just rotating within US assets.
Previously, global capital standardly allocated to US Treasuries as the safest asset.
But now, with the US deficit soaring, debt increasing, and interest rates remaining high, people are starting to worry about US fiscal health.
Money still flows to the US, but the choice has changed. Instead of buying US Treasuries to lend money to the US government, it's better to buy the most profitable US tech giants.
Riding the AI wave, these tech companies' strong earning power has become the new core choice for global capital.
Simply put: global capital has shifted from trusting US government credit to trusting the profitability of tech giants. ETH's performance tonight, how to put it—it’s like a good kid who quickly admits fault after being scolded by their parents.
From 21:30, it dropped from 2,697 down to 2,635, then made a V-shaped recovery back to 2,680. SAR support is at 2,679, SuperTrend at 2,659, and the current price of 2,680 is just above the SAR. The Bollinger Bands middle line at 2,665 is also right below. ETH’s rebound is more decisive than BTC’s, with a longer lower shadow and more determined buyers.
But don’t get too happy too soon. Resistance is at 2,685 above, 2,700 is a psychological barrier, and 2,703 is the 24-hour high. ETH needs to hold above 2,700 to truly be out of the danger zone. 🔥In this market wave, what worries me more is not the trend, but the leverage.
ETH looks strong now, but the space around 2630 has never been fully opened.
📉Around 2614—2632, about $32.12 million long positions are clustered, and liquidations near 2613 are also quite concentrated. This means that if the price dips down, chain liquidations can easily occur.
🧱In the short term, I will watch 2622 and 2614; if these break down, then look at 2550.
But don’t forget, both open interest and leverage have been declining recently; the market is actively deleveraging.
🚨So the scenario might not be "trend ending," but rather "washing out the undecided chips first."
I will only consider adding to long positions after ETH firmly holds above 2630 again.
⚡ZEC: If 1550 doesn’t hold, look at 1500; resistance at 1600 and 1685.
💰SNDK: Support at 1740 and 1680; resistance at 1815 and 1900.
Brothers, survive first, then talk about making big gains. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Does this count as bearish news for $ZEC and other privacy coins?
If anonymity itself is a false proposition,
then the current value of ZEC is too inflated.
$ETH
In that case, shorting $ZEC is a surefire win.
I don't want to close my position now; I even feel like adding to my short.
Holding from $993 until now,
countless times I wanted to stop loss and close the position,
but now it seems none of that was necessary.
#OpenAIInferenceCostTest
#SandiskSP100AIFocus
#HormuzTermsInFocus 🔥A truly comfortable long position is often not one you chase when you see the price rising.
ETH is exactly following this logic right now.
📉2630 is still being tugged back and forth, with huge whale long positions thick around 2614—2632, and clear liquidation pressure near 2613. In the short term, if 2622 and 2614 are consecutively broken, 2550 may continue to face pressure.
🧱So I’d rather wait than gamble.
Positions and leverage are falling in sync, indicating the market is actively deleveraging. After this round of liquidation is complete, we’ll see if ETH can reclaim 2630.
🚨If it holds above, then consider adding longs; if it breaks below, just keep waiting.
⚡Don’t chase ZEC’s rise; 1550 is the first line of defense, 1500 is the next level.
💰After SNDK’s continuous rise, don’t get carried away either; the 1740 and 1680 pullback levels are more worth watching.
🧠Real trading opportunities aren’t about participating in every fluctuation, but waiting for the price to reach a level where you’re willing to take the risk.
Would you choose to get in now, or wait for the market to clean out leverage first? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 White House National Economic Council Director Hassett spoke at the New York Economic Club, pointing out that the U.S. external debt is about $15 trillion. Achieving the 3% deficit target largely depends on force majeure factors. This speech exposes the fiscal pressure in the U.S., which will disturb expectations for U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar.
For Coca-Cola, fiscal pressure will push up long-term U.S. Treasury yield expectations, suppressing consumer stock valuations; but since the deficit target is difficult to achieve, the market will worry about economic weakening, and funds will prefer the defensive nature of essential consumer goods. The current price is 87.11, short-term resistance at 87.55, fundamentals still await the Q3 earnings report on October 20, overall a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
In the crypto space, BTC has dual attributes of debt hedging and interest rate sensitivity. The high U.S. debt expectation is a long-term positive narrative for BTC as an alternative reserve asset; but in the short term, if the market worries that bond issuance will increase U.S. Treasury yields and liquidity tightening expectations, it will suppress BTC and ETH. ETH more closely follows the overall market fluctuations without independent strong catalysts.
This is the White House advisor's view, not Federal Reserve policy. This week's PCE and non-farm payrolls are the core; the news only brings short-term sentiment disturbances and is unlikely to change the big trend.Night strategy!
$BTC
Long: 81800–80300 Stop loss 78400
Short: 83800–85200 Stop loss 87300
$ETH
Long: 2618–2578 Stop loss 2515
Short: 2718–2768 Stop loss 2835
$SOL
Long: 114–111.7 Stop loss 109
Short: 122–124.5 Stop loss 127.4
Leverage U-based 10x, position ratio 1:2 or 2:3, strictly execute stop loss, take profit strategy is partial take profit, set breakeven stop!
Strategy is for reference only! Strictly execute if you can bear normal stop loss risk control!🔥The most dangerous thing right now is not ETH falling, but that you just chased a long position and it suddenly dumps again.
📉Repeated battles around 2630, with a large number of whale long positions pressing between 2614—2632, and intense liquidations around 2613.
If 2622 and 2614 are consecutively broken, 2550 cannot be ignored.
🧱But here’s a detail: futures positions and leverage are both declining, which looks more like the market is actively deleveraging rather than a simple trend turning bearish.
🚨So I won’t go heavy now.
Wait for it to clear what needs to be cleared, then re-establish above 2630; only then will that long position feel more comfortable.
⚡ZEC1550 is support; if broken, watch 1500; 1600 and 1685 are resistance.
💰After SNDK’s continuous rise, don’t get overconfident; 1740 and 1680 are better pullback levels to watch.
🧠Trading isn’t about who’s braver, but who can survive to wait for certainty.
Will you take ETH now, or wait for another drop? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 🚨 Crypto Market Volatility Escalates｜BTC is Testing a Key Zone
Market fluctuations have clearly intensified, but real opportunities often arise when the price reconfirms its structure.📊
$BTC recently pulled back from the $87.3K high and is currently focusing on the $82K–$83K support zone. If buyers can hold this area and push back above $84.5K–$85K, short-term market sentiment may improve again.
📌 Latest Market Signals: • 🇺🇸 US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.39B last week, hitting a recent strong level
• But BTC retreated from above $87K during the same period, indicating that inflows don’t necessarily mean a one-sided price rise
• 📉 The current macro environment remains pressured, with US Treasury yields and rate expectations continuing to impact risk assets
• ☀️ SOL-related ETFs also recorded about $188M inflow last week, showing capital attention is spreading to some alt assets
🔹 Support: $82K–$83K
🔹 First Resistance: $84.5K–$85K
🔹 Strong Resistance: $87K–$87.4K
🔹 Breakout Confirmation: Volume-backed reclaim above $85K
🔹 Risk Signal: Effective breakdown below $82K
What matters now is not guessing whether BTC or Altcoins move first, but observing whether BTC can reclaim key levels + if volume expands in sync + if capital continues to flow in.
Patience 🔥Don't rush in, the whale hasn't been moved yet.
Brothers, this time I'm actually guarding against ETH dropping another leg.
📉2630 is the key level right now, around 32.12 million USD long positions are stacked near 2614–2632, with even denser liquidations near 2613. Short-term downside targets are 2622 and 2614; if it really breaks, 2550 might be coming.
🧱But I don't think this is a trend reversal. Positions and leverage are both decreasing, more like an active deleveraging.
🚨My script is simple: first clear the leverage, then watch the direction.
Wait for liquidation pressure to ease, ETH to firmly reclaim 2630, then consider adding longs.
⚡Watch ZEC at 1550, if it breaks, look at 1500; SNDK has support at 1740 and 1680.
💰Don't rush to go all in, you can have an initial position, but keep bullets in reserve.
Do you think this wave will first sweep 2613, or will 2630 hold directly? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Looking at this market, folks, don't rush to get hyped.
---
First, let's check BTC.
BTC 83611, up 0.34%. It looks green, but from last week's high of 87220, it has steadily declined, pulling back over 3600 dollars.
I exited my position at 87199 last week, and now it really seems like the right move. Some were still talking about pushing to 88000 or 90000 back then, but now at 83611, those who chased the highs are probably stuck.
24-hour volume is 1.03 trillion, not panic-level, but also no sign of bottom-fishing capital coming in.
---
Now let's look at ETH.
ETH 2682, up 0.24%. Last week it was at 2732, now it has dropped back to around 2682, down 50 dollars.
24-hour volume is 1.06 trillion, similar to BTC, showing low volume steady decline. This kind of trend is the most wearing — not a crash, but a little down every day, slowly draining your patience.
$BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $AEVO Damn it! This AEVO market is really something, outside it's as quiet as a graveyard, inside it's dog-eat-dog with fur flying everywhere. The 0.0253 level is pulled up inexplicably, volume can't keep up at all, it's purely a dog trader holding a sickle to fish. Don't get hyped, this wave is a typical bull trap shakeout, the taste of bag holders is too strong.
The resistance at 0.0258 above is tight, several attempts to break it failed weakly. My idea is simple, short directly around the current price of 0.0253, stop loss at 0.0262, if it breaks below 0.0245 look for 0.0238. Don't be greedy, take a bite and run.
If you want to follow the setup, click the market card below to enter, don't shake your hands. Control your position and always set a stop loss, don't blame me if you lose this trade, but remember to shout "bro" if you make money.💡🐢 The Turtle Rule in the Crypto World
Many people entering the crypto space first ask: How much more can this coin rise? Is this the bottom now? When will it surge? How far will the whales push it?
But true trend traders think completely differently. They don’t guess the future. They only wait for the market to give signals. This is the famous — Turtle Trading method.
In 1983, futures traders Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt conducted a famous experiment: they recruited a group of people with almost no trading experience and trained them to trade trends according to a clear set of rules.
The core of turtle trading is not about predicting which asset will rise, but: identify the trend → follow the trend → control risk → let profits run
🐢 Rule One: Don’t guess the bottom, wait for the breakout
The classic turtle system uses price breakouts as important entry signals.
Simply put: if a coin has been consolidating for a long time, suddenly breaks above the recent high, and the trend continues upward, the turtle system considers following it.
Not because: the coin has dropped a lot, so it must be the bottom.
These two ways of thinking are completely different; one guesses the price, the other waits for the market to prove the direction.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 On-chain funds show clear divergence, with BTC shorts increasing by $4.2 million, while ETH buying is upgrading, ENA selling pressure is simultaneously released, and dormant wallets have moved another 1,200 BTC; the main forces have not formed a unilateral consensus.
HBAR current price is 0.12787. Technically, although it has broken through the ascending channel and MACD shows a golden cross, RSI has already entered the overbought zone, making short-term chasing very poor in cost-effectiveness.
CoinGlass liquidation chart shows a large amount of long liquidations piled around 0.1223, making this level prone to magnetic attraction. Just finished climbing to the seventh floor and completed an order, glanced at the liquidation distribution; the risk of a pullback cannot be ignored.
Since bulls and bears are fiercely contesting around 0.1223, wait for the price to fall back to the 0.1230 to 0.1240 range before entering long positions; do not chase the rise.
Set stop loss at 0.1204; a break below indicates liquidation stampede is confirmed and exit is necessary.
For take profit, first target is 0.1340; after breaking through, look to 0.1385.
If it directly rallies and holds above 0.1295 with volume, light positions can be entered, with defense also at 0.1268.
Do not catch a falling knife at this time.
$HBAR
#OpenAI与Anthropic调查数万起AI安全事件
@OKX星球 $HYPE I see a set of intriguing data: Hyperliquid's on-chain perpetual contract bilateral position market share has reached 11.4%, hitting a record high.
This is a contradictory signal. The coin price is falling, but on-chain derivatives activity is surging to an all-time high. Institutions are using HYPE as a hedging tool, and leveraged funds continue to pour in. Historically, after HYPE's open interest (OI) breaks previous highs, the probability of a rebound within 3 days exceeds 70%.
What’s more critical is today's liquidation data. Hyperliquid's single largest liquidation was a $3.34 million XRP-USD contract, with a total platform 24-hour liquidation of $187 million, and 81,945 traders forcibly liquidated. This scale of liquidation means that while HYPE's OI is hitting new highs, liquidation risk is also accumulating. When the funding rate turns negative, chain liquidations often occur.
Even more crucial is the competitive landscape. BitMEX shut down at the end of September; this veteran platform that pioneered perpetual contracts in 2014 has exited the market, and the market share it vacated is very likely being divided among Hyperliquid, dYdX, and Gains. BitMEX’s departure marks the end of an era.
HYPE is suitable for swing trading but not for long-term holding; the window period after OI hits new highs usually lasts only 2 to 3 weeks. While the market bleeds, $QNT is exploding. 🚀
Quant jumped 11.79% in one hour after The Clearing House selected it for its On-Chain Money Initiative, triggering a short squeeze and about $25M in liquidations.
🏦 Bank-linked deal, targeting the first half of 2027
📉 Total crypto value fell 2.07% and $BTC slid to about $83,000
Real adoption or just a short squeeze? 👇
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead
#HormuzTermsInFocus The "$SOL" "heart surgery" has been implemented, so why is the price instead "bleeding"?
On September 28, Solana experienced its strongest upgrade ever—the Alpenglow mainnet launch, reducing finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. Technically, this was a true heart transplant.
But the market did not buy it. OKX quoted 118.5, down 4.8% in 24 hours, sliding from a high of 124.6. Good news turned into bad news upon arrival—a familiar script.
Who is dumping? Pump.fun treasury. They have sold a total of $848 million SOL at an average price of 162, suppressing the buying momentum as soon as it appeared. RSI7 has dropped to 26.2, indicating short-term oversold conditions. On the other hand, ETFs have seen net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, with a record $188 million last week. Institutions are buying, project teams are selling, the chip distribution is clearly torn apart.
Key levels: support at 118/112.5, resistance at 120/123.4.
From September 16, the price rose from 95.79 to 119.99; this "buying on expectation" wave has been fully consumed. Those with floating profits should take profits in batches today—don’t let a profitable position turn into a break-even one. For those wanting to enter, wait for a pullback to 112–115 with support before considering entry, stop loss at 112.
The cruelest moment in an expected market is the day the good news is realized.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Keep dumping tonight
I'll buy more in the morning
I think I've figured it out
This coin likes to move sideways repeatedly
Anyway, it can't break through 0.003
Today I managed to recover some
+479
+3.11%
From 15387 to 15877
Feels good
The losses from the past couple of days
I recovered most of them in one go today
Shorting feels really good
Entered at 0.0027
Exited at 0.0025
Nailed the timing perfectly
I think I've figured out this coin's pattern
Rising to 0.0029 is a bull trap
Dumping back to 0.0022 is a shakeout of longs
Back and forth, it's just this small range
0.003 is the ceiling
Who chases gets trapped
Who shorts profits
So tonight
Keep dumping
Dump down to 0.0022
I'll buy more when I wake up in the morning
No greed
Take a rebound and run
Exit at 0.0024-0.0025
Then keep waiting for it to dump
Sideways repeatedly
Repeatedly harvesting
This is the correct way to play ONE
Brothers
Keep shorting tonight
See you with longs tomorrow morning
$ONE $BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Midnight BTC/ETH Market View:
Today's market is really volatile, swinging back and forth over 1,000 points repeatedly testing levels. BTC has repeatedly rebounded but is pressured at 85000, pulling back to 82500 intraday to find support. Watch the closing situation: if it closes above 83000, then tomorrow it can still rebound to test resistance near 85000. If it fails to close above 83000, the probability of testing the 80000 level increases!
If you want to participate in low longs at midnight, watch the 83000-82500 support zone for attempts; for rebounds, watch resistance at 84000-85000-86000.
For ETH, watch support at 2650-2630; low longs can be attempted here. For rebounds, watch resistance at 2700-2750-2800.
Zhongliang's view remains the same: this is a normal technical correction. Don't jump to 70,000 on every dip or 100,000 on every rebound. As for short-term trades, once there is profit, I think there's no need to shout; everyone will reduce positions or exit. In this kind of choppy market, whether long or short, shouting loudly about making big gains and then big losses doesn't make much sense. The total fluctuation is just that small, what's the point? All the hype... everyone acts like they've hit some small targets, that tone... #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH One data point to understand BTC's long and short positions tonight.
As of September 28, BTC's total open interest is about $36.08 billion, down 0.27% in 24 hours; meanwhile, BTC price is still fluctuating around $83,000.
More notably, about $31.25 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for about $25.04 million, approximately 80%.
What does this mean?
Simply put, as the price falls, leveraged positions are also being cleared.
This is not exactly the same as the structure of "price falling and shorts continuously adding positions." Currently, it is closer to long positions deleveraging, with the market actively reducing risk exposure.
So the only real question to watch tonight is:
After BTC returns to around $83,000, will the open interest increase again?
If the price stabilizes and open interest rises again, it indicates that funds may be re-entering; if the price continues to be under pressure and open interest keeps declining, it looks more like continuous position clearing.
In terms of levels, watch the resistance near $85,000 above and the $82,700–$83,000 area below.
The key for BTC tonight may not be how much it falls, but who is still willing to stay and keep betting. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC Is this bearish news for $ZEC and other privacy coins? 👀
If anonymity itself is questionable, then ZEC’s current valuation could be seriously inflated. That would strengthen the short thesis.
I’ve held this short from $993 through countless moments when I wanted to stop out. But now, instead of closing, I’m even considering adding.
The key question: can privacy coins keep their premium if confidence in privacy gets challenged?
$ZEC #ZEC #PrivacyCoins#PCEAndPayrollsWeek Short squeeze ends, bulls hesitate: Bitcoin's "vacuum zone"
Bitcoin violently surged from $82,000 to $87,397. This nearly $5,400 increase was not driven by a frenzy of spot buying but was a classic short squeeze scenario.
Liquidation data reveals the truth: On September 21, shorts suffered the heaviest losses with over $10 billion liquidated; on September 22, short liquidations sharply dropped to $171 million; by September 27, long and short liquidations were nearly balanced. This means the fuel for the short squeeze has been exhausted—the buying pressure forced by shorts is fading.
The problem is: no one has taken over yet.
Technical indicators also confirm this delicate balance. The MACD histogram has returned to zero, indicating equal strength between bulls and bears; RSI is at 65.28, showing momentum remains but is not overheated; Bollinger Band %B is 0.78, with price steady in the upper half but still some distance from the upper band at $87,795.
Bitcoin is currently stuck in an awkward position: shorts have been flushed out and the short squeeze bonus is gone; meanwhile, spot buyers are hovering around $84,000, reluctant to enter aggressively.
To push towards $88,000 or $90,000 requires real capital, not short-covering.
The market has shifted from "short squeeze" to "bull hesitation" mode. Next, will spot buyers take the baton, or will the price stall and fall in the vacuum zone? The answer lies in the hesitation around $84,000. $BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Some traders see the altcoin market as a high-beta extension of risk-on sentiment, while others treat it as an independent regime that simply borrows Bitcoin's momentum for a few sessions. In the bull path, equities stabilize, the correlation between crypto and growth stocks eases, and altcoins trade on their own narrative fuel with $BTC acting as a stable base. In the bear path, a risk-off wave in equities drags the entire market lower, and altcoins with weaker liquidity get sold off faster tha🔥BTC might be quietly completing a trend reversal.
📉 What was the previous downtrend structure?
Lower highs.
Lower lows.
Constantly pushing the price down.
But now, this chain has been broken.
📈 BTC closed above the May high on the weekly chart, breaking through the previous downtrend structure. This is the signal I truly think is worth paying attention to.
🧠 Of course, there will still be short-term fluctuations.
So I don’t believe the breakout will lead to a straight, continuous rally.
A more likely path is continued consolidation around 83,000, digesting the overhead resistance, then looking for an opportunity to push toward the 96,000 area.
🎯 If there is a pullback afterward but the larger structure remains intact, that could actually be part of confirming the trend.
⚠️ What really needs caution is falling back into the downtrend structure and continuing to weaken.
Until then, I won’t easily change my long-term cycle judgment just because of a few short-term bearish candles.
The easiest mistake in the market is to use 15-minute fluctuations to negate the weekly structure.
This time, focus on the larger cycle first.
Whether BTC has truly entered a new bullish phase, let the price give the answer itself. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 🔥The most interesting thing about BTC next might not be the surge, but how it behaves around 83000.
📈The weekly candle has closed above the May high and has broken through the previous lower high–lower low structure.
This means the large-scale downtrend structure is being broken.
🧱So I am now more inclined to a scenario:
BTC will first oscillate around 83000, repeatedly digesting chips, then attempt to push towards the 96000 area.
But there is a premise here:
No structural breakdown near 83000.
📉A short-term pullback is not surprising to me at all.
The more the market grinds, the more it might be digesting the previous upward pressure.
🚀From the big picture, I currently lean towards an upward phase.
But this doesn’t mean you have to chase now.
Comfortable trading often isn’t about rushing in at a breakout, but waiting for the market to pull back and seeing if it can hold the key structure.
⚠️So next, I will focus on two things:
Support around 83000.
And whether new highs after the breakout can continue to form.
If the structure continues upward, the 96000 area is worth watching.
Will BTC really reverse the downtrend this time? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据