Bitcoin Pulled from 62,900 to 79,000, I originally thought it was just a normal short squeeze. Now I realize, it's not a bull market start, it's targeting shorts like us. The logic is actually very simple. For exchanges, the best outcome for retail investors is only one: losing everything. The moment money is deposited, it already belongs to the exchange owners; the rest is just a matter of time. And every dollar we make shorting is forcibly extracted from this time issue—money that should have gone into the exchange owners' pockets but didn't. There are roughly three types of shorts in the whole bear market: 1. At the bull market top and bear market start, going all-in and holding steady, safe; 2. As the bear market progresses, adding to positions with floating profits, risky; 3. As the bear market progresses, chasing shorts at lower levels, extremely risky, possibly already wiped out. So this wave is not the market correcting itself, nor the start of a bull market, but the house collecting debts.

2026.9.3 Early BTC/ETH/XAU/SNDK Trading Opportunity Analysis The market wiped out 280 million USD overnight, with 104,869 people going bankrupt and losing everything; the total amount didn't increase much, but the number of people increased by 30,000 to 40,000 compared to before. The market is accelerating its reshuffle, concentrating chips more. The more thoroughly chips are washed and concentrated, the more favorable it is for the market continuation! BTC support/resistance levels: 87550/85165/75475/78425/71500 Intraday has been consolidating with shrinking volume; a deep dip below 76600 tonight is an opportunity to go long once more; ETH support/resistance levels: 2750/2400/2225/2100 At 2345, continue to wait and see if an opportunity arises; XAU went long the night before last, was trapped during the day yesterday, and took profit directly last night. Now it surprisingly stands above 4400+, even the 1h/2h bulls still have fuel, so no shorting today; a pullback aiming to reach yesterday's price is unlikely today; SNDK has been fluctuating around 1500 for the past few days. If it fails to stabilize effectively above 1600+ after a spike tonight, it may test support around 1450 with another drop; pay close attention tonight; Operational advice does not constitute any investment basis: Last night’s minor non-farm payroll was below expectations, another typical case of much noise but little effect. Tomorrow night’s major non-farm payroll expectations are also bearish. Beware of manipulative smokescreens by market makers; rely on indicator signals. News and policy factors are uncontrollable! #USStock Gold web3 Trading Opportunities

ETH is suppressed by the descending trendline, with both highs and lows decreasing, forming a volatile downward structure. The 2404 box support bottom was broken, creating a lower low; follow the trend to short on the rebound. After a golden cross appeared below the MACD zero line, it immediately turned into a death cross; the rebound strength is weak and the signal is not obvious. It retests the 2365 support and oscillates upward, forming a small V-shaped rebound. On the 1H chart, the first bearish candle closed as a doji, followed immediately by a gravestone doji, then two solid bearish candles with volume, showing strong bearish momentum. The third bearish candle closed as a hammer, indicating a bottom rebound and a bullish naked K signal. The previous 2404 box bottom support has turned into resistance; if it pulls back above this level again, go long following the trend on the right side. Light position entry at 2365 to go long and catch the rebound, with a stop loss at 2306 and targets near 2422 and 2465 $ETH

$BTC #Bitcoin [Long Position Plan and Common Rising Range] 1. Position Update - Remaining 25% long position stopped out at $77,510 - No short position entered at $77,000. The alarm went off but I was too tired and just went to sleep. Because only when in good condition can one trade well - Currently no position - The current entry position is not looking good 2. Trading Plan and Common Rising Range - As shown in the chart below, if a wedge forms, plan to enter long during wave e - The common range is the first or second white box - At that time, partially take profits on the sides, set entry price stop loss for the rest - After the wedge, if the high point rises, short at the end of the main wave 5 - Or if wave e breaks down after the wedge, proceed with wave C-c. Then, after C-c ends, the main rising wave 5 will appear, so plan to go long (regard the wedge as wave C-a)

$BTC Last night, the Nasdaq dropped -1.03%, the S&P -0.71%; today the 10Y US Treasury yield briefly surged to 4.81%, and Brent crude oil rose to around $95. Oil prices → inflation → rate hike expectations, this chain is re-pressuring valuations. BTC is still fluctuating around 78,000, the key point is that the latest net inflow into the US spot ETF is about $217 million, indicating that institutional funds have not significantly withdrawn. Currently, BTC is more resilient than the Nasdaq, but the real breakthrough condition is not sentiment, but the 10Y US Treasury yield stopping its rise first. If US Treasuries peak, 80,000 is worth chasing; If US Treasuries hit 5%, all overvalued assets need to be recalculated.

Exclusive Perspective｜Reminder of Several Important Data Points: The Real Big Picture Is Far From Turning Bullish The market has given several very important signals these past two days. Let's start with the US stock market. US stocks continued to plunge last night, and it’s no surprise that the crypto market was dragged down along with it. Because from my big-picture framework, the US stock market is already at a position that requires adjustment. Why could it hold up in Q3? I said months ago: Institutional funds won’t dump the market all at once in a single day. So Q3 was more like maintaining a high level with repeated tugging, giving large funds time to exit. Structurally, the US stock market’s high point is increasingly approaching a double top pattern. My judgment remains: It can hold in September, but pressure will significantly increase in Q4. The truly bigger risk is in 2027. The macro environment is also unfriendly. Inflation issues haven’t been fully resolved, and the risk of interest rates staying high or even rising again can’t be ignored; the war situation hasn’t improved significantly, and policy uncertainty remains. So the external environment for the entire Q4, I still define as: Relatively harsh. This is why I have consistently emphasized: We are not currently waiting for a sustained bull market lasting one or two years. We only trade by month, only by quarter, only certain-stage rebounds. After the rebound, rest for the remaining time. ⸻ The second, even more important indicator: The annual lines of BTC and ETH. I have always said, this year we must first respect two words: Bear market. Especially BTC, the current annual-level adjustment, in my view, is far from complete. So my judgment on BTC going forward remains unchanged: Around 58,000 still needs to be reconfirmed. And if the risk asset environment continues to deteriorate in Q4 and beyond, I don’t believe 58,000 will necessarily hold. Levels of 50,000 or even lower must be included in the scenario in advance. Here, I wouldn’t attribute all reasons to macro factors. Macro is often just the most convenient excuse used by major players and institutions when manipulating the market. What truly determines the big trend is: K-line structure, annual line position, overbought degree, and volume. Overbought conditions that need correction will ultimately be corrected. ⸻ So now the two big trends that truly cannot be ignored are: First, the annual-level high pressure of the US stock market. Second, BTC’s annual line suppression this year. If these two trends don’t truly reverse, the crypto market will find it very difficult to break away from the entire risk asset environment and independently enter a long-term bull market. So my big direction remains: Continue to treat Q4 with bear market thinking. Don’t be prematurely optimistic about 2027 either. Truly worth heavy investment opportunities don’t come every day. Be patient. Wait for the monthly line to give an opportunity, trade the monthly line. Wait for the quarterly line to give an opportunity, trade the quarterly line. When the market comes, trade aggressively for a while; when it’s gone, rest. For me, this is the most important trading discipline in a bear market.

Keep following #Bitcoin and crypto market data: On Tuesday, September 1, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $236.5 million, marking a net outflow again after Monday's net inflow. Among them, IBIT had a net outflow of $201.2 million, accounting for 82.2% of the single-day net outflow. Considering last Friday's and yesterday's situations, a single-day net outflow cannot prove a trend reversal; continued attention is needed to see if subsequent funds maintain net outflows. Single-day net outflows, such as last Friday, are likely fund adjustments, especially when net inflows are overly concentrated in IBIT, making it more likely that a single channel's funds are adjusting. Next, ETF flows on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are crucial. If ETFs continue to have net outflows, it means the current BTC price has lost major fund support. Crypto market data: Market cap changes show BTC's share significantly increasing, with market risk preference concentrated on BTC, overall showing a cautious state. Trading volume slightly increased, with the largest change being a clear increase in ETH trading volume, indicating stronger turnover competition. Funds saw a net inflow of 400 million, with USDC having a net outflow of 303 million, and USDT still showing a small net outflow. Summary for today: ETF data on Tuesday shows net outflow. Combined with yesterday's crypto fund situation, Tuesday was an opportunity for concentrated fund withdrawal. Today, BTC price rebounded, and crypto funds simultaneously had net inflows, making it very likely that ETFs will see net inflows. The key focus going forward is the sustainability of one-way fund inflows. Whether ETFs or crypto funds, once sustained net inflows or net inflows occur, they are important factors that will change the short-term trend. Overall, whether ETFs or crypto funds, they have shifted from continuous net inflows last week to frequent switching between net outflows and net inflows this week. This means short-term bulls and bears are competing, market confidence is declining, and this week will be an important short-term window to decide direction!

$BTC Reviewing this round of Bitcoin's movement, my plan was very clear: take profit on short positions at 76150, wait for the price to rebound about 1000 points, then re-enter with another short. But the market deviated by 200 points, the lowest only hit 76380 before it was pulled up directly, so there was no chance to take profit at 76150. Since I didn't fully take profit on the first position, I simply held on without moving. The subsequent movement basically confirmed my judgment — the price indeed rebounded over a thousand points, now the rebound momentum is exhausted, the bears are regaining strength, and the market is starting to move down again. The next rhythm is very clear to me: the price will first test the support around 75500. But honestly, I think this level probably won't hold; at best, it will be a brief pause, it's hard to truly stop the downtrend. Once 75500 is broken, the downside will open further, with the next target directly at 74200. Why am I so pessimistic about this rebound? It's simple, this rise is essentially a recovery during a downtrend, not a bullish reversal. During the rebound, there was no significant influx of new funds going long; more so, positions previously trapped took the opportunity to exit and run. After these positions exit, selling pressure naturally resurfaces, and the market is still dominated by bears. For those already holding short positions, just keep holding. Focus on the 75500 level to see how strong the support is. For those not yet in, you can follow the trend and enter short positions. Don't try to bottom-fish for a rebound now; the cost-effectiveness is low and it's easy to get trapped halfway down. Of course, trading shouldn't be stubborn. If the price pulls back to the rebound high or even breaks upward strongly, that means my judgment was wrong. Short positions should be closed to preserve capital. But from the current market situation, the probability of such a strong reversal is low. First watch the test of 75500 support, predict it won't hold, then continue to look toward 74200. Just follow the bear trend to operate.

🤖《3D Integrated Trading System｜BTC Morning Market Analysis》 BTC current price is around 77.3K. Before the non-farm payroll data release, the price is forming a narrow range oscillation between 77K-77.6K. The market is overall pressured below 77.6K, with the bearish suppression pattern unchanged. This is a very frustrating market! Let's first look at volume and data. (1) Strength of Bull and Bear Volume 4H bullish volume continues to shrink, with noticeably insufficient trading volume. Daily volume has clearly declined from the peak on August 25, as the market awaits the non-farm data, lacking active upward momentum. Bearish volume is also not strong, overall in a "weak bull and bear" state. (2) Volume, Price, and Structure BTC has broken below the key support zone of 77,400-77,650. If it cannot quickly recover, it will face deeper correction pressure. The current rebound strength is limited, with a structure showing lower highs in a bearish arrangement. (3) On-Chain Data In the past week, about 3,700 BTC were net transferred to exchanges, indicating potential selling pressure. Spot CVD dropped from +280 million to -67.2 million, with selling pressure overwhelming buying pressure. Regarding ETFs, on September 1, there was a net outflow of about $236 million, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a single-day outflow of about $201 million. Although there are large whales accumulating, the bull market is not yet fully confirmed, and the rebound lacks sustained spot liquidity confirmation. (4) Macro Fundamentals ADP small non-farm added only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 47,000, indicating weak employment data. However, the probability of a rate hike in September remains as high as 57.5%, with the market pricing in stagflation logic. Friday's non-farm payroll is the biggest variable this week. The expectation is an increase of about 55,000-65,000 jobs. If below 30,000, it may trigger a rebound testing 79K-80K; if above expectations, prices may face further pressure, support will be tested, and a break could target 75K-76K or even 73,500. (5) Core Judgment Currently, price movements lack strength and sustainability; both bulls and bears are waiting for Friday's non-farm data. However, buying power is weakening, and the probability of a subsequent downward correction is greater. 73,500 remains the most probable correction target but requires a negative non-farm trigger. 77K is the short-term watershed; breaking below it targets 75K-76K; holding it maintains high-level oscillation. Before Friday's data release, going long is not recommended.

$SNDK Looking back at SanDisk's recent market movement, it basically matches the situations we analyzed multiple times before. The surge in August was nearly 80%, and many people directly assumed a major bull market had arrived. However, I have always thought this is not a new upward trend, but rather a rebound after a sharp drop. The price was driven up by speculation on AI storage themes, short-covering, and bottom-fishing funds rushing in, not because the fundamentals have been fully realized. After the rise, the price failed to continue making new highs and got stuck oscillating between 1400 and 1600, which is a large consolidation box, indicating high-level volatility with suspicion of a downward continuation. Yesterday, the price peaked at 1609, hitting the upper resistance of the range, and was immediately pushed down. It has now fallen back to 1535, which clearly shows heavy selling pressure at 1600. Bulls tried several times but couldn't break through. In the short term, it is very likely to continue grinding back and forth between 1400 and 1600. Don't expect a sharp drop immediately; the consolidation may last for a while, continuously shaking out positions. But the longer it stays at a high level, the greater the risk of breaking downwards. Currently, 1535 is in the middle of the box, which is the most dangerous position. Whether going long or short, stop losses are easily triggered back and forth here, so try to avoid trading in the middle. 🧣 The strategy is to honestly do high sell and low buy within the range. For longs, wait until it drops near 1400 before considering entry. This is a key support with better cost performance. Place stop loss just slightly below 1400. If it truly breaks below this level, the box is broken and long positions should admit defeat and exit immediately. Do not stubbornly hold on. For shorts, wait for a rebound near 1600 before entering. Yesterday’s 1609 was a very good short entry point, with a target near 1400 below. Do not expect to make huge profits trading inside the box. Watch for two key changes going forward. If it breaks below 1400, the downward continuation pattern is confirmed, the consolidation ends, and you should give up the high sell low buy strategy and follow the bears. Conversely, if it can firmly stand above 1600, then the bearish view is wrong and the market will strengthen again, though this possibility seems low at present. There are also fundamental risks. Next quarter’s earnings guidance may fail to meet market expectations, and consumer business revenue continues to shrink. The big surge in August has already priced in some positive factors, so once market enthusiasm fades, the price will face correction pressure. When trading SanDisk, strictly control position size and set stop losses. We lean bearish, but if the market actually breaks upward, be ready to change your view. Never go against the market; always follow the signals the market actually gives.