This week's sudden market risk-off, if Ajian were managing positions, I wouldn't suddenly sell everything off. Instead, I would first significantly reduce the impulse to "make the right judgment immediately," because it is clear that September will bring multiple key macro data and central bank meetings that will determine global asset pricing: September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls, September 10-11 US inflation data, September 15-16 FOMC, September 18 BOJ meeting This is not a period suitable for going all-in betting on a single macro direction, so I would choose to keep positions, reduce leverage, and wait for the data to provide answers. I would rather earn less for a while than wipe out the entire quarter's risk budget due to one wrong judgment#

Figure, a blockchain-based consumer lending platform company, has just completed the $717M acquisition of Kiavi, the largest residential bridge loan institution in the U.S., which will add over $7B in annual mortgage loan business and AI asset platform capabilities. Ajian specifically mentioned this to inform everyone that besides the recently popular on-chain bonds, RWA is also beginning to enter mortgages, credit, and asset services. This acquisition will expand Figure's asset sources, but the risks in the credit business will also become more complex, with defaults, valuations, recoveries, and regulations all being transmitted on-chain. However, this is precisely the most attractive aspect of RWA's real-world attributes: the more stable the returns, the heavier the legal and credit risks.

Ajian observed that since August 30, an institutional address has transferred about 142,800 $ETH to multiple CEXs, valued at approximately $345M, and continued to transfer about 39,500 ETH in the past day at an average price of around $2,420. This supply far exceeds ordinary whale transfers and is enough to impact ETH short-term liquidity. Although transferring to exchanges does not necessarily mean selling, as it could be custody, financing, market making, or OTC settlement, the potential supply has been unleashed. Combined with the signal that the ETH spot ETF stopped net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days as of yesterday, the market is likely to respond accordingly.

$BTC retraced from last week's high of around $85K to the current approximately $77K, a drop of over 6% at one point, but Ajian observed that some whales increased their holdings by about 6,765 BTC during this period, worth around $521M. Price pullbacks and accumulation by large holders can happen simultaneously, but if these addresses are not exchanges, market makers, or project wallets, this signal leans more toward mid-term accumulation and does not indicate an immediate short-term rally. Given BTC's current contracting volume and volatility, it is advised that friends avoid making bets when the direction is unclear

The just-released ADP data shows that about 38,000 jobs were added in the US private sector in August, below market expectations. Employment is cooling down, but oil prices remain above $90. So the question arises: should the Fed prioritize employment or inflation? This is the real dilemma in September. If employment continues to deteriorate, expectations for rate cuts will rise; but if oil prices push inflation back up, it will be difficult for the Fed to quickly turn dovish. Therefore, tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report is very important, because this time the data has a special aspect: the market doesn't need very good data, it just needs to confirm whether the economy is bad enough for the Fed to stop raising rates. Let's wait for tomorrow's results and see if the nonfarm payrolls variable can outweigh other factors to become the most important indicator

Still continuous net inflow, still the resilient Ethereum, in the last 5 settled trading days, ETH ETFs have had a combined inflow of about $616.5M, while BTC ETFs during the same period only about +$252.8M. Institutional funds are treating $BTC and $ETH differently. Although the ETF flow on the ETH side is relatively more stable, the price has still fallen back to around $2,400, indicating that the inflow can only temporarily offset selling pressure and has not fully driven a price breakout. However, such continuous net inflow is undeniably a positive and encouraging signal. Watch if it can retake $2,500; the funds have already given the opportunity, now it depends on whether the price can confirm it.

How hot has Robinhood Chain been these days? I'm not a professional dog-punisher and can't judge from a meme perspective, but from today's performance of $ARB and $UNI, it's already quite clear: Robinhood has generated about $13.05M in fees in two months since launch, of which about $1.3M was allocated to Arbitrum; Uniswap processed over 7 million transactions yesterday, setting a new record. Catalyzed by Robinhood, L2 tokens have finally seen a more concrete income return path. Of course, we can't ignore the unlocking of about 139.2M ARB on September 23 despite ARB's recent surge, since network earnings don't mean circulating supply pressure is absent. Uniswap's data also shows that DeFi users and trading activity are returning amid the enthusiasm brought by Robinhood. However, the old issue remains: high Uniswap fees do not equal UNI holders receiving equivalent income; these are two separate accounts.

I think a lot of Chinese Crypto content oversimplifies the Bank of Japan. Most people know about yen carry trades, borrowing yen to buy US Treasuries, stocks, and Crypto, and thus assume BOJ rate hikes → unwind carry trades → BTC falls. This logic isn't wrong in normal times, but today Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surpassed 3%, hitting a new high since 1996, and Japanese institutions have net sold about 3 trillion yen in overseas bonds as of August 22. This means Japanese capital is starting to recalculate whether it's more profitable to stay in Japan or invest abroad, which is a very significant change. Imagine you are Japanese (not insulting you), previously you could only get very low yields in Japanese banks, so you chose to take your money out to buy US Treasuries, European bonds, stocks, or even enter risk assets through various financial structures. But now Japan's own bond yields are rising, and you don't have to worry about exchange rates, hedging costs, or political risks associated with holding overseas assets, so naturally the money will return home. What really matters is that this process doesn't require a large-scale carry trade exit all at once; even a small monthly reduction in overseas allocation, accumulated over years, could change global capital flows. This is why I've recently started to re-examine Japan. Previously, I focused on when the BOJ would raise rates; now I want to explore when Japanese institutions will start to feel domestic assets are more worthwhile to buy. The former is a central bank issue, the latter is a global liquidity issue—completely different. If Japanese capital continues to flow back and US Treasuries remain high, global risk assets will face a sustained uncontrollable shock. I'm not being alarmist; Japan has been a major source of global capital markets for decades. If domestic Japanese bond yields become increasingly attractive, do Japanese institutions still need to play the role of global cheap capital providers? So if you hold BTC, the Nasdaq, or other high Beta assets long-term, I suggest you start thinking about a simple question: are Japanese people still willing to lend money to the world? This might be the real thing worth studying in the coming years, and Japan could even be one of the biggest hidden macro variables in 2026#日本长债收益率升至高位

The probability of a Fed rate hike has risen to 68%, whereas yesterday during Ajian's analysis this figure was still 65%, and about 40% just a week ago. Brent crude oil also once broke through around $95. It can be said that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has brought the transport risk of the Strait of Hormuz back to the market, which has led to an increasingly clear transmission chain: oil price ↑, inflation expectations ↑, bond yields ↑, Fed rate cut space ↓, risk asset valuations ↓ So recently I increasingly like to use what the market fears most to judge macro conditions. Now the market fears no longer revolve around war; war has become a known variable. Ultimately, war ends up affecting the entire liquidity environment. When the above transmission chain fully forms, it means the Fed doesn't even need to be particularly hawkish; the market itself will tighten financial conditions, and that is the most troublesome #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温

Seeing some discussions about a rate cut bull market, Ajian wants to break down this concept for everyone to improve your macro judgment framework: not all rate cuts are bullish for BTC. From what I know, there are at least two types of rate cuts. The first is inflation decline + economic soft landing → policy normalization; The second is rapid economic deterioration → Fed forced to firefight. The performance of risk assets in these two environments can be completely different. It is recommended not to assume a bull market just because the probability of a Fed rate cut is rising.