LuckyAria
LuckyAria
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Brothers, SUI has moved from 1.10 to 1.19, and now chasing more is a bit awkward. There's 4-hour resistance at 1.20-1.21 above, and a bunch of profit-taking below, so a direct surge is likely to be swept out.
Looking at several timeframes: 15 minutes is hugging resistance at 1.1977, short-term there's some desire to rise but no strength, it can't break through; 1-hour support at 1.1644, rebound structure is intact; 4-hour MACD death cross, momentum weakening, after falling back from the previous high of 1.2951, there's support at 1.10; daily chart is still bullish, up 64% in 30 days, but short-term needs a shakeout.
Data side: open interest fell then rose again, funds are bottom-fishing near 1.10; funding rate close to 0, cooling off the bulls is a good thing; long-short ratio peaked at 2.39 then fell back, still biased long; active buying is slightly stronger but no volume explosion.
My plan: don't chase 1.18-1.19.
1. Wait for a pullback near 1.15, with volume contraction and stabilization, then stand back above 1.16/1.17, try a small long position, stop loss below 1.10, targets 1.25, 1.30. Better if there's support back near 1.10.
2. Breakout with volume above 1.20-1.21, if pullback doesn't break support then follow, stop loss below 1.20, target 1.30+
3. Chase directly at 1.18-1.19, risk-reward is poor, better to wait.
In short: watch 1.15 first, then 1.20, do nothing in between. Light contract positions, keep stop loss tight.
Do you think SUI can break through 1.2 directly?
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SUI
Tonight's PCE
The market is quite frustrating right now. Williams said there's no need to rush after the September rate hike, and the expectation for a rate hike in October has dropped from about 70% to around 50%. Logically, this should be good news, but the dollar and US Treasury yields are still rising. The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.59%, a nearly 20-year high.
On one hand, rate hike expectations are cooling down; on the other, long-term yields are soaring wildly. This shows the market isn't really trading on whether rates will be hiked or not, but rather worrying about how long high rates will last.
Tonight's PCE is here to answer that question. The market expects core PCE to rise 3.3% year-over-year, still far from the 2% target. If the data beats expectations, rate hike expectations will heat up again, putting direct pressure on BTC. If it meets or falls below expectations, the logic that tightening is nearing its end will strengthen.
On the crypto side, BTC is oscillating narrowly between 83,000 and 84,300, with 82,500 as the bottom line. ETFs have seen net inflows for eight consecutive days, with 31 million coming in yesterday. ETH is hovering around 2,680, having risen nearly 10% in September, possibly the best September since 2016. However, in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations reached 241 million, with longs accounting for 144 million. Those chasing highs have already been washed out once.
Before the data is released, guessing the direction is like flipping a coin. After the release, watch for two conditions: a volume-backed break above 84,300 is worth attention; if it falls below 82,500, wait for a lower volume stabilization at a lower level before making moves.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债短端供给或增万亿美元 $BTC
Personal review, not investment advice
$SOL hasn't been rising or falling these past two days; it's stuck.
It hovered around 118 all day, bumped up to 120 then pulled back, dropped to 116 and buyers stepped in. The price is stuck in the middle, and this kind of market is most vulnerable to attacks from both sides.
I checked the contracts; open interest surged then started to fall, funding rates are close to zero, neither longs nor shorts are crowded. This means it's not that no one is watching SOL, but everyone is waiting for someone else to make the first move.
The resistance at 120-121 has been tested repeatedly, with obvious selling pressure. The support at 116 has also been tested but hasn't broken yet.
It's simple now: above 120 is where the bulls need to prove themselves, below 116 is where the bears can truly take control. In between these two levels, there's little room for correct guesses, and wrong guesses get hit back and forth.
I'm watching one detail: next time it hits 120, will the volume keep up? If volume expands and it holds above 121, the sideways consolidation is over, then we look at 124. If 116 is broken down with heavy volume, don't treat every rebound as a bottom; watch around 110 below.
So I don't have a particularly strong bullish or bearish view on SOL yet; it hasn't given a clear answer. Waiting for it to clarify is more comfortable than guessing.
What do you think will come first, a test of 121 or a drop to 116?
#SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SOL
Personal market review, not investment advice
$AVAX suddenly moved today
The price once surged close to $12, and now it’s still hovering above $11. More importantly, this time it wasn’t just a single spike pushing it up; the trading volume also increased.
I checked several timeframes; the 4-hour chart has already broken through the previous consolidation range, and after the breakout, it didn’t immediately fall back. This is more noteworthy than just a simple 10% rise.
Looking at the futures market, the changes are even more obvious.
I saw the 4-hour open interest increase from about 18.27 million to 25.65 million, indicating new positions entered during the rise.
Interestingly, the long-short account ratio dropped from about 2.49 to around 1.50.
In other words, the price is rising, but the market isn’t increasingly unified in chasing longs.
The funding rate hasn’t spiked significantly either, at least it hasn’t reached an overly crowded sentiment yet.
First, watch $12 above, which is the level just touched today.
The most important support below is $11.
If the price later retests around $11 with reduced volume and holds steady, then today’s breakout is quite significant.
Conversely, if it quickly falls back below $11 after breaking $12, be cautious that today’s bullish candle might be a false breakout.
So I won’t chase now.
For a sharp rally like AVAX’s, the comfortable entry point is often not the first big bullish candle but the first pullback after the breakout.
Next, we’ll see if $11 can turn from resistance into support.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
$MU has been consolidating around 1071 for a day, the daily chart has been sideways since dropping from the 1257 high, and the 4-hour chart is oscillating between 1030 and 1100.
The market looks boring, but the earnings report comes out tomorrow night (after market close on September 30 Eastern Time, early morning October 1 Beijing Time), and this level is actually quite critical.
The market currently expects revenue around $51 billion, earnings per share about $31.5, with a very exaggerated year-over-year growth; this expectation already fully prices in the "AI storage super cycle."
On fundamentals, HBM capacity is basically sold out, and management has previously said supply-demand tightness will continue beyond 2027.
Morgan Stanley forecasts gross margin could reach 86.4%, but guidance for next quarter's growth may slow compared to previous quarters.
The biggest risk for earnings season is expectations being too high; even if results just "meet expectations," profit-taking could cause a sell-off.
My plan is simple: wait for the earnings and watch two conditions:
If earnings beat expectations but the price rallies above 1100 with volume but stalls, I will wait for a pullback near 1050 to confirm support before considering.
If earnings miss expectations and the price breaks below 1030, I won’t touch it and will wait for it to stabilize with low volume in the 900 to 950 previous low area.
No guessing direction, just waiting for conditions.
Are you ready to bet on the earnings or wait for the results?
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元
$HYPE dropped from 98 to 86, but on-chain funds haven't fled
This correction isn't unexpected; the previous rise was too fast. But what's interesting isn't how much it fell, but whether the money left after the price dropped
Looking at some data
Burn monitoring shows Hyperliquid earned about $58.27 million in the last 30 days, averaging $1.16 million daily to repurchase HYPE. Yesterday's repurchase average price was 91.97, with nearly 49 million tokens burned, accounting for 4.9% of the total cap
Large holders are more obvious: wallets holding over 10,000 tokens increased 24.6% to 2,006, while retail addresses (over 10 tokens) decreased by 718, indicating chips are moving to whales
Hyperliquid Strategies recently bought another 494,000 tokens, about $45.8 million
But there is pressure: 5 whales unlocked about $90.4 million, and with more unlocking, the market worries about selling pressure
Now HYPE is pulled by two forces: repurchase and burn, whale accumulation vs unlocking and unlocking pressure
It depends on whether someone will take the chips from this batch of unlocked tokens
The macro environment isn't easy either; BTC is fluctuating around 84,000, 10-year US Treasury yield near 5.27%, risk assets are struggling
I won't be bearish just because of the drop, nor bullish just because of repurchases; I want to see where the coins go after unlocking
If new supply comes out, the price can still hold, and large on-chain accumulation continues, that's much more interesting than just watching the K-line
Can HYPE hold this time?
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Recently, the price seems sluggish, but ETF funds haven't been idle. I reviewed the data from September 21 to 28, and the differences among BTC, ETH, and ZEC are quite significant.
$BTC had a net inflow of $2.42 billion, with nearly $1 billion coming in on the 21st alone. However, the price is still hovering around 83,000 and hasn't surged. There is buying pressure, but the selling pressure above is also considerable.
$ETH saw an inflow of $690 million, with net inflows for several consecutive days. Unlike BTC, ETH seems to be slowly accumulating rather than chasing the price. The price is still fluctuating, and whether it can break through depends on whether this money turns into real buying pressure.
$ZEC is even more interesting, with a total of only $27.1 million, a small volume. On the 22nd alone, it surged by $32.8 million, but there was no movement in the following days, and on the 28th, $8.1 million flowed out. The early inflow was fast, and now it depends on whether that batch of funds will stay or leave.
Looking at the three together: BTC has the most money but price pressure, ETH has steady money but hasn't broken through yet, and ZEC surged too fast initially and is now entering a verification period.
I think the funds haven't left the crypto market; they're just rotating among different coins. The key question is, the money is coming in, but can the price rise? If money keeps coming in but the price can't move up, then caution is needed.
What do you think? Can BTC stand above 85,000 this week? Will that batch of ZEC funds stay or leave?
Personal review, not investment advice
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
PCE, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Fed's rate decision all packed into these two weeks
August PCE will be released on the evening of September 30, September Nonfarm Payrolls on October 2, and the Fed's rate decision on October 27-28
The core contradiction now is just one: whether inflation continues to decline and whether employment can hold up. If PCE exceeds expectations and Nonfarm Payrolls are strong, the expectation for a rate hike in October will heat up, pushing US Treasury yields and the dollar higher, putting pressure on risk assets. Conversely, if the data cools down, capital may flow back in
In the crypto market, BTC is trading sideways around 83,000, ETH is around 2,700, mainstream coins show little volatility, but altcoin spot trading volume has surged to four times that of Bitcoin. Glassnode's altcoin season signal has also reached 81, officially entering the altcoin season range
The key is that this rotation is not accompanied by a surge in leverage. Altcoin perpetual contract positions have barely increased in the past 30 days, and less than half of the markets have increased positions. This is different from the leverage-driven speculative frenzy in 2021; this time it looks more like rotation driven by spot participation and relative performance. BTC market dominance has stopped rising, and capital is starting to spill over into high-elasticity assets, which is a sign of market improvement
But altcoins outperforming BTC does not mean a full altcoin season; if only a few coins are rising, the base is still narrow
Before the data comes out, no guessing the direction. Wait for PCE and Nonfarm to give the answer, then follow the market trading logic, no rush
Personal review, not investment advice
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH
ZEC's drop this time is really quite harsh
It fell straight down from a high of 1695 to a low of 1367, now around 1376, dropping nearly 13% in one day
The main reason is that it had risen too much before, up 64% in 30 days, more than 4 times in 180 days, with heavy profit-taking pressure. Any slight disturbance easily triggers a chain stampede
Although the daily chart is still holding and hasn't completely broken down, the 4-hour MACD has already formed a death cross, the green bars are expanding, and the 1-hour and 15-minute moving averages are all pressing down
The short-term cycle is clearly weakening
The 4-hour open interest dropped directly from 219 million to 155 million, leverage funds are retreating frantically
The funding rate once flashed down to -0.05%, and the long-short account ratio dropped directly to 0.70
This indicates retail investors are actually aggressively shorting
Below, first watch 1367, today's low and the short-term lifeline
If it breaks, it will likely test 1315
Resistance above is at 1483, then 1592
Before reclaiming 1483, all rebounds can only be seen as weak rebounds
If it can hold around 1367, with volume shrinking and sideways consolidation for a few days, this is likely a violent shakeout to clean out leverage, leaving opportunities later
But if it breaks through 1367 directly, the downside space may open further
My plan is simple
Wait until it stops falling, consolidate with low volume around 1367 or 1315, then consider trying a small position
#ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 $ZEC
Personal review, not investment advice
$BTC is now around 83,500, with a 24-hour low of 82,500
This wave dropped nearly 4,000 dollars from the high of 87,385, open interest is decreasing, the negative basis is widening, and the funding rate is close to zero, which doesn’t look like a panic sell-off but more like funds slowly withdrawing
The daily chart is still bullish, MACD shows a golden cross with red bars, MA99 is at 69,972, the overall trend is intact, but the 4-hour chart shows a death cross, price is below MA25 and MA7, the 1-hour chart just formed a golden cross underwater, and the 15-minute chart has rebounded a bit. The long-term cycle supports, the mid-term cycle is bearish, and the short-term cycle is recovering
Open interest on the 4-hour chart dropped from 198.6K to 187.3K, total open interest value fell from 16.7 billion to 15.7 billion, funding rate is 0.0065%, negative basis widened to -62.4, contracts are cheaper than spot, large holders’ long-short ratio by open interest is 1.82, leaning long, but by account count the long-short ratio is only 1.36, showing a divergence between retail and large holders
First, watch 82,500, which is tonight’s low and short-term support; below that is 82,000. Resistance is between 84,000 and 84,500. Until it breaks back above, any rebound is considered weak
If 82,500 holds with low volume sideways movement, this wave is a pullback shakeout, and there’s still a chance to retest 85,000 later. But if 82,500 breaks, it will go directly to 82,000 or even lower, possibly testing 81,000
Let’s see if 82,500 can hold first, then talk
Personal review, not investment advice!
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 $BTC