#FOMCRateCallThisWeek

🚨 $BTC IS ENTERING ITS MOST IMPORTANT WEEK YET Bitcoin is hovering around $77.5K, but the market is facing a major double test: the Fed’s rate decision and the Senate’s CLARITY Act vote. At the same time, Brent crude has climbed above $107, pushing Fed hike expectations to around 86% and keeping pressure on risk assets. This week could decide whether BTC finally reclaims $80K—or starts another deeper correction. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

Fed hike odds are near 87%. Sept 16 at 2PM is the moment. If delivered, it would be the first hike under Warsh and the Fed's first since 2023. After holding at 3.50%-3.75% in July with a 9-3 vote, the FOMC heads into this week almost fully priced for a 25bps hike. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.3%, and PPI rose 5.4% YoY. Energy remains part of the pressure. Three members already dissented in favor of a hike last time. The political backdrop is loud: · Trump has renewed calls for lower rates · Hassett said the White House would accept the Fed's decision, while arguing inflation is decelerating · Several Wall Street desks shifted toward a September hike call But the bigger question is communication. Warsh has stripped back forward guidance since taking the chair, and his decision not to submit his own dot in June was an unusual break from recent Fed practice. September brings a fresh dot plot, but the statement may again leave fewer explicit hints. Markets may have to decode the press conference in real time. One contrarian read: Brookings' Robin Brooks argues a hike here may be less about classic tightening and more about anchoring the 10-year yield and restoring credibility. If that is right, the crypto impact may depend more on yields and the dollar than on the headline rate move. BTC trades around $77K, below the $80K area it failed to hold in recent attempts. US spot BTC ETFs have seen four straight sessions of outflows, even though September remains net positive so far. The rate decision matters. The dot plot and what Warsh says after may matter more. Which matters more for BTC this week: the rate decision, the dot plot, or Warsh's press conference? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

Wednesday is the one that matters. FOMC decision at 2pm ET, and markets are pricing a hike to 3.75-4.00% after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Everyone's focused on the number. I think the dot plot matters more. A hike that's already priced changes little. A dot plot signalling more hikes into next year is what would actually hurt. $BTC 77.8K and $ETH 2,520 are my lines. Below those, the reaction is real. Above, it's noise. Positioned or flat into Wednesday? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

Arthur Hayes said Japan’s unwinding of yen carry trades and rising French bond-market risks could pressure the Federal Reserve to expand dollar liquidity, while he expects interest rates to remain unchanged. Hayes said Maelstrom has a larger Ethereum position to capture a liquidity-driven rally. Why it matters: He views the euro-yen exchange rate as a leading indicator of potential liquidity shifts affecting crypto markets#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

$BTC / $ETH Sometimes the strongest signal isn't a huge breakout. It's how an asset behaves when the market gets uncomfortable. $BTC is holding around $77K while macro pressure is building ahead of the Fed meeting. $ETH is sitting around $2.5K and still trying to prove that its recent strength wasn't just another short-term rotation. That's what I'm watching. Not just green candles. I want to see which assets can absorb selling without completely losing structure. Anyone can look strong when everything is going up. The real information comes when the market gets tested. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

#FOMCRateCallThisWeek The Fed’s September decision lands on September 16, and a 25bp hike now looks like the market’s base case 🏛️ August PPI rose 5.4% YoY and CPI increased 0.4% MoM, while energy prices and long-term yields remain elevated. That explains why Goldman Sachs and others shifted their calls from a hold to a hike. What caught my attention is the political pressure building at the same time. Trump argued that US rates should be the world’s lowest, while White House adviser Hassett said he sees no case for tightening. The Fed is therefore making this decision with both inflation risk and its independence under scrutiny 👀 To me, the bigger question goes beyond “hike or hold.” If the Fed raises rates, markets will want to know whether this is a one-off response or the start of further tightening. If it holds, it will need to explain why the latest inflation data weren’t enough.

A September rate hike now seems almost unavoidable . How will the prices of $BTC $ETH , and $OKB move in the future? Does a rate hike necessarily lead to a price drop? I don't think so. Historically, it mainly depends on whether the hike meets expectations. The current price has already priced in the rate hike expectation. If the Fed raises rates by more than 25 basis points this month, prices will fall sharply. Otherwise, it should be fine.#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期

THIS WEEK IS THE BIGGEST ONE FOR CRYPTO THIS YEAR. Tuesday: - 🇺🇸 Senate vote on the Crypto Clarity Act. Wednesday: - 🇺🇸 FOMC Interest Rate Decision, with the market pricing an 86% chance of a hike. - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Press Conference. Friday: - 🇯🇵 BOJ Interest Rate Decision. Expect high market volatility.

🚨 ETH is pumping, but don’t mistake a short squeeze for a real reversal. Brothers, the rebound looks strong on the chart, but the bigger picture is still full of warning signs. PPI and CPI came in hotter than expected, rate-hike expectations have risen, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%. Meanwhile, $BTC is struggling to build momentum. Spot ETF outflows have reached around $450 million over three days, and the $76,000 support zone is under pressure. #DailyOrbit

$BTC — STILL IN THE TRENCHES $BTC ~$77,069 (-0.3%). Dipped below $77K, trying to stabilize. News: BTC ETFs bled $462.7M last week — first weekly net outflow in 4 weeks. $232M liquidated in 24h (BTC longs $22.28M, shorts $3.22M). Core CPI hot at 0.3% MoM, rate-hike odds hit 85%. Held $77K. Support $76,500 / resistance $78,500. BTC reclaims $78K or another dip first? #SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow