The $ARB unlocked tokens have just been absorbed, and the market has priced in a 10% drop in two days as a supply-side adjustment. After the cliff unlocking of 139 million tokens on September 23, the price dropped 10% in two days, clearly reflecting supply-side pressure, and there is another batch unlocking on 10/15, so the selling pressure calendar is not over. The taker buy/sell ratio dropped to 0.68, and the funding rate turned negative, indicating short-term capital is withdrawing, which is even more worth watching than the price drop itself. Notably, there is a new variable in the ecosystem: the USDAI compute power credit protocol TVL has surged past $600 million, and the RWA + compute power narrative is still accumulating on Arbitrum. Technically, the 14-day moving average at 0.208 is pressing overhead, while the 30-day moving average at 0.172 is supporting from below. A rebound target is 0.235-0.25. No fighting before the October 15 unlocking.

$DOGE The whole screen is shouting meme season, but Dogecoin is shrinking its neck and playing dead. I'm waiting for a signal. 1. The quality of the pullback is actually not bad: after 30 days +11%, it only retraced to above the 14-day moving average, with volume ratio dropping to 0.071, indicating an orderly decline rather than a stampede. 2. On the ETF side, TDOG funds continue to shrink, and the buying of the US DOGE ETF is increasingly concentrated in GDOG alone. The channel is becoming monopolized; the advantage is no need to guess who is buying, the downside is that if one party stops, there is no incremental volume. 3. The 14-day moving average is the floor; in the past two weeks, two spikes below it were bought back. This structure is still intact. The rebound first targets the 0.1015 level, and if stronger, it can reach 0.1068. Playing dead does not mean it's over; wait for volume to pick up before making a move.

$PUMP has risen for three days and no one knows why. Making money like this also doesn't let you sleep peacefully. Yesterday, after a volume surge pushed it to around 0.0055, it retreated. Throughout, no single news driver was found; both CMC and on-chain data point to technical squeeze plus momentum funds. The foundation of this rise is weak. The treasury's hand is still moving: another 48,000 SOL were transferred from the pump.fun wallet to Kraken, the cash-out pace hasn't stopped. The buyback relies on selling SOL to supply funds; the story of moving from left hand to right hand must continue. Up +11% in 7 days, all three lines for 7-day/14-day/30-day are trampled underfoot, after a large divergence, there is strong demand for a pullback. Wait for a pullback at 0.0045-0.0047, admit mistake if it breaks 0.0043, reduce position on rebound at 0.0052-0.0055. I won't chase this big bullish candle.

$UNI 1.37 million UNI transferred to Wintermute, such a large order is most likely an institutional wash trade to unload. On-chain anomaly on September 28: 1.37 million tokens transferred into Wintermute address, suspected OTC profit-taking; bulls lost $400,000 that day, at the 8.79 level, short-term floating positions are rotating. New development on governance: Arc's on-chain UNI protocol fee + burn proposal has entered the governance process. If truly passed, Uniswap's fee toggle will effectively have an additional mechanism. Technically, 8.79 retraced near the 14-day moving average, the 30-day moving average at 7.44 is far below providing strong support, the 30-day + 70% major trend remains intact, RSI at 63.5 is not overheated. Subsidy expiration is just a short-term friction, not a directional change.

$ZEC Hackers also stole ZEC, and no one can freeze it; this issue is much more serious than yesterday's big bearish candle. Bitget theft has expanded to $387.5 million, including ZEC assets. Hackers transferred them to THORChain, which refused to intercept citing "decentralization and inability to freeze." These stolen assets will continue to flood the market over the next few weeks, with supply pressure still unresolved. Futures open interest shrank by 10% in one day, with leveraged funds withdrawing first; meanwhile, spot institutions are still steadily buying. Smart money is diverging on both sides: derivatives retreat, spot remains stable. Technically, 1,485 fell back below the 14-day moving average, 1,537 is capped by the 7-day moving average, and the 30-day +71% deviation is still correcting. Stop loss at 1,345, rebound target 1,580-1,650. I won’t chase the rebound until the stolen assets are cleared.

$LINK Today, the oracle stands alone I don't hold much of LINK, but I've never dared to look away. The oracle business is unique; no matter how flashy other chains are, price feeds still have to come from it. CCIP connects traditional banks with on-chain systems; the Swift test wasn't just for show. With RWA tokenization bringing in big money, LINK is the underlying pipeline—whoever discovers real assets must first pass through it. LINK is one of the strongest infrastructures in institutional narratives, more solid than pure memes. But its tokenomics often get criticized; unlocking and selling pressure have happened before. Small spot positions lie in wait, ready to pick up on key pullbacks—don't chase the highs. Remember, it's a pipeline, not a money printer; it rises slowly but lasts long. Focus on spot, avoid contracts.

$ETH Ethereum is the only standout here. Among 19 assets, it was the only one that didn't turn red yesterday. It independently held steady at 2,690. While Bitcoin dropped over 1% and altcoins fell 2-10% in the evening, the 7-day moving average at 2,683 is right underfoot, and the 14-day moving average at 2,641 is the first line of defense. Two major events in derivatives: short positions surged 13,000% over two weeks (on-chain derivatives data). With shorts squeezed this tight, any rebound will be fueled heavily. The total staked amount surpassed 43.5 million tokens, hitting a record high, with tokens firmly locked on-chain. Lido initiated the migration of 8.4 million validators, and Vitalik declared Hegotá as the "last regular fork," signaling that the foundational work for the staking narrative is still intensifying. Stop loss at 2,545, first target range 2,780-2,850. With shorts this crowded, I lean toward an initial bounce.

$OKB Yesterday, the two most resilient assets in the market were Ethereum and this one. 1. On nights when altcoins dropped 2-10%, OKB only fell 1.8%, still holding above the 14-day moving average at 119, and up 3.9% over 30 days — the relative strength indicates holders were not panicking at all. 2. Some foreign media reported that OKX is advancing US IPO counseling, shifting the platform token’s valuation anchor from "fee deduction" to "group equity mapping". This is just a rumor, take it with a grain of salt, don’t treat it as a solid fact. 3. The 24-hour trading volume is only $13.4 million, turnover is very thin, a few million dollars can easily distort the candlestick, causing volatility to be misleading. I will keep my base position unchanged before next week’s press conference and let it move sideways on its own.

$HYPE Starting October 3rd, Circle and Coinbase will send money to Hyperliquid weekly, and many people haven't accounted for this. 1. USDC revenue sharing starts on 10/3: USDC income on HyperEVM+HyperCore will be shared with the ecosystem. The market estimates an annualized amount of about $250 million, which will go directly into the buyback and burn pool. This is the largest revenue-side increment since its listing, bar none. 2. But the supply side is worrisome: 983,600 tokens will be unlocked and tradable on 10/1, Wintermute has a $126 million short position, and large institutions are betting on a short-term pullback. 3. Technically, 87.4 has already dropped near the 30-day moving average, down 8% in 7 days, and the positive premium from Binance listing has basically been wiped out. My plan: buy in at 84.8-86.8, stop loss at 82.8, hold before the revenue sharing lands on 10/3, with the first rebound target at 94-97. With so many short positions, I won't short.

Yesterday's bearish candle was really not the fault of the crypto market alone; it was a hit taken by the entire risk asset class together. On days like this, those itching to trade should first tie their hands. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new high since 2007, and $BTC along with Bitcoin took a hit, which is not unfair. The 10Y yield surged to the 5.24% level, gold dropped 4% the same day, oil prices broke $100 intraday, and stocks, bonds, and gold all got hit—pure discount rate-driven valuation cuts. Bitcoin fell from around 85,000 to 83,500, with the 7-day moving average at 83,963 pressing overhead and the 14-day moving average at 82,568 providing support below. Bitget's stolen amount has expanded to $387 million, with withdrawals resuming in phases. Exchange risk events remain unresolved, and sentiment cannot recover in the short term. Four events collide on Wednesday: core PCE revision + final GDP + Micron earnings + MSCI consultation deadline, plus $202 billion US Treasury settlement. The volatility window is right ahead. Before PCE, keep positions light. This kind of rate-driven drop can easily trap those who enter too early. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据