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跟一条被行情盖过去的基建信号。中兴通讯刚在巴基斯坦建成当地最大的 AI 数据中心，总供电容量 8.5 兆瓦；同一天 MiniMax 又大手笔增资。把这些碎片拼起来，会看到一条清晰的线：AI 算力基建正在全球范围疯狂铺开，电力、机房、芯片的需求是实打实的。这也是为什么这轮 capex 叙事这么顽固——它背后是真订单、真投入。对加密圈的启示是：DePIN、去中心化算力这类「蹭 AI 基建」的叙事，接下来大概率还会被反复炒。懂的都懂，风口在哪，故事就往哪讲。Gold prices have skyrocketed.
On August 5, spot gold broke through $4,200, with an intraday increase of 3.2%. COMEX gold futures closed at $4,308, surging 3.74% in a single day. Silver also rose above $62, up more than 4% intraday.
Gold's market value surged by about $1.3 trillion in a single day.
More than half of the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency.
One day, 1.3 trillion.
What about Bitcoin?
BTC is still fluctuating between 64,000 and 65,000. Spot ETFs saw net inflows totaling $382 million over two consecutive days, while BlackRock IBIT attracted $281 million in two days—institutions were buying, prices remained steady.
Putting all the positive factors on the table:
ADP employment data for July saw only 44,000 jobs, far below the expected 70,000, marking the smallest increase since January this year.
The dollar plunged. U.S. Treasury yields retreated.
Fed rate hike expectations cooled.
Jobs collapsed, the dollar fell, and interest rate expectations eased—all conditions favored BTC.
Then the funds went to gold.
Why?
Three words: I don't recognize you.
This round of gains is a "rate cut expectation trade"—funds are betting on the Fed being forced to pivot. Gold is the oldest asset in this narrative, a five-thousand-year human consensus, with institutions buying it with their eyes closed.
Where does BTC rank in this narrative?
ETFs are buying, but the price is unchanged. What does this mean? This indicates that marginal buyers are not truly one-sided bulls. They're doing allocation, hedging, arbitrage—not here to carry your load.
The narrative of "digital gold" temporarily failed at this point.
Peter Schiff has long said: the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has never truly existed. In 2026, gold rose 9%, while Bitcoin fell 11%. BTC/Golden Ratio has fallen to a historic low.
We've been calling for 'digital gold' for so many years,
Real gold quietly made a fortune there, while our "digital gold" dawdled at 64,000.
But I don't think BTC will stay like this.
Gold prices rise due to Old World logic—inflation, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases. BTC's rise is driven by the logic of a new world—technology adoption, regulatory frameworks, and ecosystem expansion.
Two worlds, two pricing systems.
But today, capital has chosen that five-thousand-year-old story.
BTC needs its own catalyst—either a volume surpass above 65,000 confirms recovery, or it waits for new narrative drivers.
Before that, the "boredom bottoming out" of 64,000 yuan might be the norm.
$BTC $XAU $ETH #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in tandem? 放个一级市场的温度计。AI 独角兽 MiniMax 关联公司注册资本刚从 40 亿增至 55 亿，而三个月前它才从 10 亿增到 40 亿——半年内注册资本翻了 5 倍还多。一级市场对 AI 的定价热度，某种程度上比二级市场的熔涨还猛。把它和 capex 周期放一起看：算力、模型这条线的钱还在疯狂涌入，短期看不到降温迹象。这对加密的含义是双向的——它证明风险偏好没退潮，但也说明增量资金现在更愿意去 AI 而不是 $BTC。钱往哪流，比价格更诚实。#SanDisk SNDK Earnings Shock: Explosive Performance, Stock Price Drops as a Courtesy#
Q4 revenue of 8.97 billion (up 372% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, gross margin 84.6%—this quarterly report is a money-printing machine level in any industry.
But on August 5, regular session closed down 5.4% at $1350.5, after-hours dropped another 5.87%~8%, once falling below 1272.
The reason is simple: next quarter guidance didn’t "exceed expectations."
FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion (midpoint 10.55 billion), below the sell-side expectation of 11.16 billion; EPS guidance midpoint of 45 is also slightly weaker.
The market had previously priced in all the optimism for AI storage—volatility was 25% from late July to August 5, with a big 10.84% surge on August 4, loosening the chips heavily.
Now, a new $14 billion buyback (remaining authorization $15.5 billion) supports the floor, and institutions’ 12-month average price target still stands at $2217 (+64%). #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 「老二今天终于不像老二」$ETH
今天加密圈最离谱的画面：
$BTC 还在 6.4 万门口喘气（+0.6%），ETH 已经闷声冲回 1,910 美元、24h +2%，把老二的面子捡回来一半。
为什么说它今天「最有优势」，不是因为它涨得多，是因为它同时在三条线被机构喂饭：
ETF 连续回流：8/5 净流入约 7300 万美元，8/6 再净流入约 9800 万美元，贝莱德 ETHA 两天扫走 1 亿+，富达 FETH 也跟上；灰度 ETHE 还在吐，但已经压不住整体进水口
RWA + 稳定币底盘：2026Q1 以太坊链上代币化资产 2034 亿美元、稳定币 1789 亿、借贷占五大公链 79.2%——贝莱德、摩根大通上链基本默认走这层，不是 $SOL 抢得动的
质押当新储蓄罐：全网质押率破 31%，3600 万+ ETH 长期锁仓，交易所余额又回到 2016 年以来低位，流通盘越收越紧
BTC 是「数字黄金」，躺那不动也值钱；ETH 是「带租约的写字楼」——住的人多、租金在收、还在不停装修扩容。今天这波不是 FOMO 拉盘，是机构把办公楼又买下一层。
短线看 1928–1950 是压力，冲不上去就当震荡；但中长期，ETH 的护城河不是「涨得快」，是「别人想抄作业都抄不走」。
⚠️ 行情记录，非投资建议，别拿杠杆赌我这句话。 昨天写完 Coldcard，我一直在想一个问题：漏洞被 AI 找出来之后，下一步会发生什么。
今天有答案了，一个协议自己把门锁了。
不是被黑穿了，是算清楚打不赢，主动收摊。
关门的叫 Boltz 。比特币不止一条链：主链安全但慢、手续费贵；闪电网络快到几乎瞬间、手续费接近零，适合买咖啡这种小额。两边的币互相不通，得有个窗口帮你换，Boltz 就是干这个的。而且它不碰你的钱，一笔交易要么两边同时成功，要么钱自动退回你自己钱包。
8 月 3 号周一，它发帖停掉兑换服务，无限期。
理由就一句：「攻击者现在迭代的速度，比我们这种规模的团队发现和修补的速度更快。」而且「我们不认为这种不对称会反转。」
用户一分钱没丢，非托管的结构决定了钱本来就不在它手上。
停服时锁在里面的总资金 18 万美元。不是 18 亿，是 18 万。一套房的钱，就是它的全部体量。
同一篇报道里，一个收比特币付款的 AI 服务 PayPerQ 说，几个月来每隔一周就在挡漏洞利用，大部分他们认为是 AI 驱动的。Solana 基金会的安全负责人说，唯一的出路是让自主防御以机器的速度运行。
非托管一直被当成最高级的安全模型，钱在你手上，谁也拿不走。这次它确实兜住了资金，但兜不住服务。
协议能做到不丢钱，但做不到不关门。我以前没把这两件事分开想过。
还有一个我一直在算的账。攻击方用 AI 批量扫代码，扫一百个项目和扫一个的成本差不多。防御方得有人读代码、修补、验证、上线。这个不对称不是心态问题，是成本结构问题，Boltz 自己也说了不会反转。
我觉得接下来消失的很可能不会是漏洞，是那些养不起安全团队的小服务，而币圈绝大多数服务都是这个规模。
反过来看，恐慌也很有可能被高估了，只能说希望一切都往好的方面发展吧。On July 1, Leopold's Situational Awareness fund reportedly reached $45 billion, with a yearly return of about 450% and up to 4x leverage. From July 10 to 20, AI-related stocks began to plunge collectively, with many stocks dropping more than 30% within two weeks. Leopold's long positions included SK Hynix, SNDK, BE, Nebius, and others, with declines far exceeding the broader market. Even more troublesome, he was shorting software stocks like Adobe. While AI hardware stocks crashed, some software stocks began to rebound, likely resulting in a typical lose-lose situation for both bulls and bears. On July 24, Leopold sent a letter to investors, admitting the fund suffered huge losses but still called this crash the best AI buying opportunity since early 2025. From July 28 to 29, the fund began emergency financing from investors and lenders, but was subsequently pursued by banks demanding margin calls. On July 30, the fund was forced to sell all its public market stock positions, and Citadel took over most of it. The traders who truly survive aren't the ones who go all-in, but those who stay at the table every time they make a mistake.The total stablecoin market capitalization has dropped to $300.38 billion from an all-time high (ATH) of $322 billion—a decline of 6.8%.
In the previous cycle, the total stablecoin market capitalization fell by 32%, dropping from $185 billion to $124 billion.
Could the stablecoin market cap see such a significant decline this time around? I don't think so; stablecoin adoption has made massive strides since 2023.
The current BTC price is lower than it was when the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at $185 billion.
P.S. DefiLlama shows a 30-day decline of 1.16%. Around this time in July 2023, the stablecoin market capitalization was $311 billion. The figures don't align; either the current market cap should be above $300 billion, or the rate of decline should be greater than 1.16%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 看了下 $SNDK 的财报，个人感觉其实没啥大问题，财报数据也都是超预期：Q4调整后EPS为$39.25，超分析师预期的$34.45达13.93%；营收97亿美元，超预期的83.9亿美元，同比去年同期的19亿美元实现巨幅增长
那为什么会下跌呢？我们先来看一下表面能看出来的东西：
1. 首先指引不及预期，而这一份不及预期的指引盖过了亮眼的当季数据，股价盘后下跌6%。
2. 涨价的节奏变慢了，投资者已经在质疑新合约模式的持久性，10%-15%的季度提价虽然依然强劲，但随着涨价节奏放缓，公司需要更多依赖产品结构、合约需求和出货量增长，而不是重复的价格冲击，并且投资者喜欢的那种暴力式涨幅和增长预期已经慢慢不见了，这不是公司的问题，这是行业的问题，这个参考3年前的 $nvda
3. 历史上也都是利好出尽回调的故事，参考上一季度SanDisk营收超预期约12亿美元、调整EPS超预期近9美元，股价盘后依然下跌，投资者当时就在质疑新合约模式的可持续性
目前看来就是投资者的口味变大了，并且也price in了，但真的是这个问题吗？
我们从这家企业去看整个行业，这我们查一些资料：
TrendForce作出的预测整个存储市场规模2026年将达到5516亿美元，2027年跃升至8427亿美元，同比增长53%；NAND闪存市场收入预计2026年同比增长112%至1473亿美元，但是这个增长几乎完全由涨价驱动，而非出货量增长。 IDC预计2026年DRAM供给增速仅16%，NAND供给增速仅17%，均远低于2018年后20-30%的历史常态，而这就是市场今天用脚投票的核心原因：营收增长的质量正在被稀释。当涨价贡献了大部分收入增长时，一旦涨价节奏放缓（哪怕只是从”季度环比70%“降到”季度环比30%”），同比数字依然亮眼，但边际动能已经在走弱，这正是SNDK股价的隐忧。
而这里我有三层逻辑：
第一层：这是AI基建对传统存储的”资源挤占”，不是需求创造
AI基础设施每GB耗费的晶圆产能是普通DRAM的3倍，HBM与DDR5之间存在3:1的置换比例，换句话说每一片HBM晶圆的产出都意味着少了3片DDR5产能。 供应商正在把更多资本开支投向DRAM而非NAND，优先支持AI相关的高价值内存。所以涨价的根源不是”存储需求爆发式增长”，而是产能被结构性地重新分配走了，这是供给侧的稀缺性叙事，跟我们在光模块/InP衬底上的”物理层瓶颈”逻辑其实是同一个母题，只是这次载体是NAND/DRAM晶圆产能而非光学衬底。
第二层：新增产能的时间窗口，决定了这轮周期能走多远
新增产能公告后通常需要12-18个月才能落地，这意味着最早的实质性供给增量要到2027年年中才会出现。 新的晶圆厂产能要到2027年末才会大规模到位，实质性缓解要推迟到2028或2029年。这跟历史周期的对比很关键： 此前NAND价格上涨周期通常持续2-3年，2016-2018年和2020-2022年两轮都遵循这个轨迹。也就是说，如果这次遵循历史模式，2026-2027年大概率仍是上行周期，但2027年下半年到2028年初，供给端补上后周期可能反转——这跟你现在的持仓周期（比如AXTI）如果拉长到2027年后，需要重新审视需求端韧性。
第三层：中国供应链是这个叙事里最大的变量
中国本土晶圆厂特别是长江存储(YMTC)，正在扩大基于Xtacking技术的NAND产能，如果它们能快速爬产并在价格上竞争，可能为价格敏感型买家提供替代供应渠道；YMTC已经在232层及以上层数展示了具备竞争力的技术。这是行业内少有人愿意正视的风险，如果YMTC产能爬坡速度超预期，可能提前打破”供给到2027年才能缓解”的共识时间表，这对SNDK/美光/SK海力士的高定价能力构成潜在的下行风险。
所以这次SNDK的盘后走势其实印证了我一直强调的逻辑：当一个板块的叙事从”结构性稀缺”转向”涨价可持续性存疑”的时候，那么即使基本面数字依然亮眼，股价也会先跌为敬。这跟我之前分析AAOI Q1财报（营收创纪录但因毛利率和EPS miss跌15%）是同一种模式，市场现在对”AI基建供应链”类股票的容忍度在下降，任何指引层面的模糊信号都会被放大解读。
那我会说他们长期会跌吗？我并不认为
他们还是会涨，只是势头没那么猛了亲历2015股灾：现在的科技股，最恐怖的从来不是第一波下跌！
作为亲身完整经历过2015年A股灾的老股民，现在看着2026年科技股的这一轮调整，我的内心一直保持着别人没有的警惕和恐惧。
很多新股民、新进场的投资者，只看到当下跌了很多，觉得风险已经释放得差不多了，最坏的时候已经过去了。
但只有我们经历过2015年的人才清楚：真正毁灭账户、摧毁心态、让人彻底绝望的，从来不是第一轮急跌，而是反弹之后的第二轮绝杀。
我把当年最真实的市场体感，完整对照现在的科技行情讲一遍。
2015年第一轮杀跌下来的时候，市场根本不是所谓的“回吐利润”，绝大多数高位进场的人，第一轮暴跌就已经大幅亏掉本金了。
那一波急速、猛烈、毫无喘息空间的下跌，直接把无数人的账户直接打废。重仓题材、高位追涨的交易者，不需要等到第二轮下跌，在第一波杀跌里就已经深度被套、大幅亏损。
但恰恰就是这一轮极端惨烈的下跌，给整个市场埋下了最大的隐患。
因为所有人都亏怕了，也所有人都默认一件事：跌成这个样子，已经杀到极限了。
当时整个市场的主流情绪非常统一。大家一致认为，短期利空出尽，恐慌彻底释放，空头力量已经透支。市场几乎所有人都在期待、笃定，接下来一定会迎来一波像样的、修复性的超级反弹。
甚至当时很多人的观点更乐观：这只是牛市中途的深度洗盘，调整结束稳住之后，市场还会开启第二波更大、更猛的主升行情。
就在这种全网一致看多、人心回暖、所有人重燃希望的氛围里，第一轮超跌反弹如期来了。
这一波反弹，不只是简单的小修复，它实实在在地修复了盘面的悲观情绪。
之前深套本金的人，账户开始回血，亏损开始缩小，原本绝望的心态，瞬间被救活了。
原本不敢看盘、彻底悲观的人，重新燃起了回本、甚至赚钱的希望。
场内被套的人不再恐慌割肉，开始坚定死扛；场外观望的人，看到企稳回暖，开始大胆进场抄底、加仓博弈第二波行情。
整个市场，在一轮反弹之后，完全忘记了刚刚经历的惨烈暴跌。
所有人的预期，全部拉满：底部确认、调整结束、二波主升即将开启。
可就是在所有人信心最足、仓位最敢打、对未来行情最憧憬的时刻，毫无预兆的第二轮大幅下杀，突然降临。
这一轮下跌，才是2015年真正的噩梦。
第一轮下跌，是猝不及防的暴跌，虽然亏钱快，但人是清醒的、是警惕的、是有所防备的。
而第二轮下跌，是在你满怀希望、相信见底、期待翻身、甚至加仓博弈新高的情况下，被直接闷杀。
这种下跌，摧毁的不再是账户的数字，而是所有的信仰、所有的期待、所有翻盘的希望。
第一波亏的是本金，第二波亏的是心态。
第一波让人难受，第二波让人彻底绝望。
很多人第一轮大跌扛住了，没有割肉；
很多人第一轮大亏忍住了，心存期待；
却最终死在了反弹之后的第二轮极致杀跌里。
这一段刻骨铭心的经历，放在2026年的科技股身上，简直是一模一样的剧本。
今年AI、半导体、存储、算力一路抱团大涨，无数人高位进场。
本轮科技股第一轮极端杀跌下来，绝大多数追高进场的人，早已不是回吐利润，而是实打实的深度本金亏损。
现在市场的情绪，已经开始慢慢复刻2015年的样子。
跌了这么久、跌幅这么大，越来越多人开始喊：科技杀到位了、空头衰竭了、超跌严重了。
所有人都在等待一波强势反弹，所有人都在默认：只要反弹稳住，科技的二波主升行情，很快就会再来。
我不否认科技的长期产业逻辑，我也承认这一轮调整确实充分。
但我以2015年过来人的血泪经验提醒一句：千万不要在现在的乐观预期里放松警惕。
一旦后面科技走出一波像样的强势反弹，把所有人的情绪救活、把所有人的希望点燃、让市场一致认定底部确立、二波行情开启的时候。
那个时刻，就是第二轮最大级别杀跌，最容易降临的时候。
历史永远不会简单重复，但历史永远押着相同的人性轮回。
第一轮下跌，杀的是贪婪。
反弹行情，养的是侥幸。
第二轮杀跌，灭的是希望。
没有经历过2015的人，只会看跌幅、看位置、看超跌。
经历过2015的人，看的是情绪、看的是预期、看的是人性。
记住这句话：
股市里最致命的风险，从来不是大跌时的恐慌，而是反弹之后，你重新燃起的、不该有的希望。
当下所有持有科技股的人，务必高度警惕，谨防反弹之后，那一波让人彻底绝望的二次屠盘。说个叙事层面的挤压，值得留个心眼。现货黄金连创新高，国内金饰价格又涨了约 57 元/克，金店重新排起队——实物避险的钱是真金白银在涌入。问题是，「抗通胀就买黄金」这套叙事越火，「$BTC 是数字黄金」这套叙事就越尴尬：真到了避险时刻，大资金第一反应还是奔向有几千年共识的黄金，而不是波动率高得多的比特币。这轮金价狂欢，某种意义上是在替 BTC 做一场压力测试——考的就是它到底算不算避险资产。走着看，答案会写在资金流向里。#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
Don't be fooled by "digital gold"—this is the harsh truth 👇
Gold hit new highs, and the pancake was still weaving cloth in place, even a bit green. Everyone in the group is asking: "Has Digital Gold collapsed?" "
Let me get straight to the conclusion: BTC hasn't crashed; it's just that the market has amplified its 'tech stock attribute' and temporarily blocked its 'safe-haven aversion.'
Why do I say this? I also reviewed the ADP data and market data this time and found a very counterintuitive phenomenon:
Nowadays, money only recognizes "old money," not "new elites." The core logic behind this gold rally is "recession trading." Poor US employment data -> Expected rate cuts -> Funds seeking stability. In the eyes of those old Wall Street institutions, gold is a hard currency that has lasted thousands of years, while BTC is still classified as a high-beta tech growth stock. When people think the economy is doomed, their first reaction is to sell volatile tech stocks (including BTC) and switch to gold or US Treasuries. This isn't because BTC's fundamentals have broken, but because the capital's "risk appetite" has downgraded.
Many people worry that BTC can't keep up with gold. But looking back at historical data (like March 2020), at the start of the crisis, cash and gold reigned supreme, and BTC would also fall. The real turning point came when the Fed shifted from "preventive rate cuts" to "liquidity injections to rescue the market." Gold rose because of "fear," while BTC's subsequent rise was due to "excess liquidity." The current divergence precisely shows that BTC has not yet been overhyped and is still in a shakeout phase. Once the liquidity gates open, BTC's resilience is unmatched by a bulky asset like gold.
💡 My live trading strategy:
Since I saw through this, I wouldn't be beaten on both sides.
Don't chase gold at the 4200 level: Chasing gold at 4200 is very cost-effective and tends to hold your ground.
Holding BTC spot: As long as it doesn't break below key support, I'll treat it as a buildup. At this point, whoever loses their composure and chases the price or cuts losses first loses.
Guys, do you think Bing will catch up this time? Let's talk in 👇 the comments$BICO
It has maintained a strong rally for several consecutive days, with the latest current price at $0.027, a weekly surge of 126%, and daily turnover exceeding $104 million. Trading volume has surged nearly ninefold compared to usual, consistently topping the gainer charts. This round of rally relies on account abstraction and the narrative of popular smart account tracks, plus full token unlocking with no new selling pressure. Hot money is clustering and driving the market higher, with the daily chart maintaining a strong bullish close. However, the short-term RSI is severely overbought, with a market cap of just over 19 million, classified as a micro small-cap coin. Early investors made substantial profits, but after continuous rallies, concentrated profit-taking and sell-offs could occur at any time, causing extremely intense volatility. My trading style is usually cautious, so I won't chase the rally for the first half of the short-term rally. I'll patiently wait for the heat to fade and the price to fully pull back before evaluating the opportunity. In the long term, I firmly believe the market will gradually return.
$SNDK
$GRVT
These represent only personal views and do not constitute investment advice.A word of caution: don't let your judgments be held hostage by new highs in US stocks. Tonight, on one side, the Nasdaq and S&P hit new highs every day, and the AI semiconductor market was in flames; Meanwhile, Hang Seng Tech fell 2%, and the Korean stock market plunged so much that consumer spending dragged down. Globally, there is no consistent risk-on; rather, funding is extremely concentrated in a few narratives. The worst part of this divergence is that if you only focus on the US stock market, it's easy to think money and opportunities are everywhere, and then recklessly open positions in assets like $BTC that don't offer good to both sides. My approach is simple—when I can't see the big picture, I'd rather wait empty-handed than force a sense of participation.📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (August 6)
According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the short sellers...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $112,800
Long liquidations about $112,800
Short liquidations about $9.89
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $149,200
Long liquidations about $149,200
Short liquidations about $9.89
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $193,200
Long liquidations about $189,300
Short liquidations about $3,924.90
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $252,000
Long liquidations about $245,700
Short liquidations about $6,319.79
From the $SUI liquidation data, long liquidations in 1-hour and 4-hour periods overwhelmingly surpass shorts, with long liquidations tens of thousands of times that of shorts, marking a nuclear-level intensity in the long liquidation start; the 12-hour long advantage continues but narrows, ratio about 48 times, a full outbreak of long liquidations; the 24-hour long still leads by a wide margin, ratio about 39 times. The short sellers have completed a full-cycle slaughter of longs on SUI—short, medium, and long-term longs have been comprehensively targeted and blasted, with shorts' only resistance slightly stronger in the long term but still insignificant, cumulative liquidations exceeding $250,000. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 6
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly good"—"exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket, any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + $14 billion buyback, still knocked down by "not impressive enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
However, after-hours stock price once plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter's guidance—revenue midpoint $10.55 billion, below market expectation of $10.82 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% implies high margins may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14 billion buyback is not enough—the market demands "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC steady growth, Arc becomes new narrative
Before market on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701 million, up 7% year-over-year; net profit $48 million, turning profitable from loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19%; on-chain transaction volume $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310-$330 million, mainly reflecting $242 million Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of increasing crypto payment penetration, Circle is trying to upgrade from "stablecoin issuer" to "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubled, unlocking peak is the real storm
After market on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. The bigger storm is on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares unlock, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current circulating shares. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk exchanged 372% growth for an after-hours plunge, SpaceX exchanged 92% revenue growth for the market voting with its feet—"exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance and every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. The old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
SanDisk fell 7% after hours, with three overlapping reasons.
1. Guidance below expectations, the market is extremely sensitive to "not good enough" during a downturn
SanDisk's mid-quarter guidance is 10.55 billion, while the market expected 10.8 billion. A difference of 250 million. A year ago, this gap wouldn't have mattered. But now, with the stock price up nearly 490% since the start of the year, institutions with huge unrealized gains only need one reason to trigger concentrated profit-taking. Guidance below expectations is that reason. The market wants acceleration, but you give "still rising but not as fast"—so it falls first as a courtesy.
2. Signals of a slowdown in the storage price increase cycle are accumulating
This is not just SanDisk's problem; the whole sector's highlight moment is dimming. Goldman Sachs has already warned in advance that the momentum of storage price increases will gradually slow. Micron, Hynix, and SanDisk have all experienced varying degrees of pullbacks in recent months, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped more than 20% from its peak. SanDisk's mid-quarter guidance below expectations confirms the judgment that "the slope of price increases is starting to flatten." The market is repricing the entire sector.
3. The $14 billion buyback is positive, but no one bought it after hours
The board approved a new $14 billion buyback plan, bringing total authorization to $15.5 billion. Under normal market conditions, this is an extremely strong valuation signal. But in after-hours trading, this news was directly ignored. Because today's core market conflict is whether the guidance can support the current valuation. Buybacks can provide a floor but cannot hold up short-term expectation gaps. The real hidden risk in this earnings report is that the market is recalculating—how much longer can storage prices keep rising? How much can demand for high-bandwidth flash support the price-to-earnings ratio? If the answer is "growth is slowing but still rising," then the current valuation needs another cut. It will fall short-term first, then wait for the market to finish repricing before deciding the direction. A quick news flash, those who understand will get it. Changxin Storage directly rejected Apple's price reduction request, quoting prices in line with Samsung and Hynix — this is more worth pondering than the price increase itself. In the past, the terminal giant (Apple) called the shots, and suppliers could only be squeezed on price; now the storage manufacturer dares to say "no" to Apple, indicating that pricing power is shifting from buyers to sellers. Coupled with memory shortages expected unLast night, SanDisk delivered an almost crazy financial report.
Quarterly revenue was $8.965 billion. A year-on-year increase of 372%. A month-on-month increase of 51%. Gross margin was 84.6%. Adjusted earnings per share were $39.25. Revenue exceeded market expectations by about 7%. Earnings per share were about 14% higher.
Then, the stock price dropped. On August 5, regular trading closed down 5.4% at $1,350.50. After the earnings report was released, it fell nearly 8% in after-hours trading, hitting a low of around $1,243. Within a single day, the cumulative drop was nearly 13%. Many people can't understand it. With such a strong financial report, why is the stock price falling? The reason is simple. The market has already priced even more extreme results into the prices. SanDisk's response was excellent. But the market had previously imagined that beyond the perfect score, they would give an extra fifty points.
How outrageous is this financial report?
SanDisk's revenue for the fourth quarter reached $8.965 billion. In the same period last year, it was only $1.901 billion. Of this, data center revenue was $2.977 billion. A month-on-month increase of 103%. In the same period last year, it was only $213 million. Edge business revenue was $5.432 billion, up 48% quarter-over-quarter. Consumer business revenue was $556 million, down 32% quarter-on-quarter. This structure is very important. Data centers are the fastest-growing business. But Edge remains SanDisk's largest source of revenue. Therefore, SanDisk is not a purely data center AI stock. It also covers PCs, mobile phones, cars, gaming consoles, industrial equipment, and various embedded devices对于当前比特币在 60,000 – 65,000 美元区间的低位窄幅震荡，市场分歧加剧：一部分人认为这是底部筹码充分交换后的“横盘筑底”；另一部分人则警惕这只是下行趋势中的“熊市中继”。 如果我们抛开情绪，深入观察 Binance 交易所 1 年期日线级别的按订单规模划分累积成交量差值（CVD）数据，并结合 Realized Price（已实现价格）、CVDD（币龄销毁价值）以及 MVRV 等底层链上数据，就会发现：支撑此前反弹的最核心主力资金正急剧衰退，宏观与链上维度均未出现真正的“周期底”特征。比特币在下半年大概率还将迎来一次砸穿前低的“终极洗盘”。 一、 CVD 结构性变脸：主导市场的“巨鲸”已从吸筹转向派发 从 Binance 最新 1 年期的 CVD 资金分布中，我们可以清晰地看到不同资金梯度的博弈轨迹： 1m–10m 级巨鲸（Whale，棕色线）：从“逆势支撑”转为“清仓式减仓” 在此前 BTC 价格从 120,000+ 高位回落的过程中，1m–10m 级别的巨鲸资金是唯一的绝对主力买盘。棕色线曾逆势强劲上扬至 +1.5B 以上，形成了强烈的“量价背离”，也正是这笔资金支撑Circle财报不差，股价却跌了。
**USDC不是没增长，Circle真正的问题是：增长不能一直靠利息。**
Q2数据其实很强：
USDC流通量733亿美元，同比增长19%。
链上交易量14.8万亿美元，暴增151%。
但Circle总收入只增长7%，还低于市场预期。
为什么？
因为利率正在下降。
Circle大量收入来自USDC储备资产赚取的利息。
利率越低，这门生意就越难维持过去的利润弹性。
所以现在Circle开始押注Arc。
简单理解：
以前Circle主要赚：
USDC储备利息。
未来它想赚：
支付、结算、跨链、机构金融基础设施的钱。
这才是Arc真正重要的地方。
Circle现在最大的考题，不是USDC还能不能涨。
而是：**能不能从“稳定币发行商”，变成真正的链上金融基础设施公司。**
如果Arc跑起来，Circle估值逻辑会完全不同。
如果跑不起来，那美联储每降一次息，都会继续给它利润施压。
所以Circle下一阶段真正的对手，可能不是Tether。
而是： **低利率。**
你觉得Arc能成为Circle第二增长曲线吗？
$CRCL $USDC #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
Gold hit $4,300, surging more than 4 points, but looking back, BTC was still stalling around 64,000, without even a decent rebound. The so-called "digital gold" has completely decoupled from physical gold this time.
Let's start with the logic behind this surge in gold—it's actually quite clear:
Rumors from the Strait of Hormuz suggest that the US and Iran are negotiating a temporary navigation agreement, causing BZ crude oil to plummet by 6 points, instantly cooling energy inflation expectations. The market calculated that inflationary pressure had lessened. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 70% to less than 60%, US Treasury yields followed suit, and the holding cost of gold as a non-yielding asset dropped sharply. Combined with short covering and central bank gold purchases as a bottom-line support, the price exploded.
But what's strange is that BTC, which is also a non-interest-free inflation-protected asset, failed to keep up.
To put it bluntly, the pricing logic of the two is no longer aligned.
This surge in gold is driven by the logic of "falling rate hike expectations + safe-haven allocation," with buyers coming from central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and traditional safe-haven funds—these funds simply won't touch BTC.
BTC's current trend is more tied to the Nasdaq and risk sentiment, relying on liquidity and risk appetite. Recently, there have been many regulatory issues—the CLARITY Act is blocked, the Volencha Trump token is stagnant, market risk appetite is stagnant, incremental funds are not eager to enter, so prices naturally cannot rise.
There's also a very practical point: when institutions actually allocate safe-haven assets, gold is a legitimate reserve asset, backed by decades of consensus; BTC is still classified as a "high-volatility risk asset," and safe-haven funds would rather buy gold and US Treasuries than touch BTC.
Previously, the market always said BTC was digital gold, but when the market actually verified, the correlation between the two had long dropped below 0.1—they were completely different.
Don't be too pessimistic. This wave of gold rally at least indicates the market is starting to trade the logic of "rate hikes peaking." This overall direction is also positive for BTC in the long term, though its transmission is a bit slower. Once the recent regulatory downsides are digested and liquidity really eases, BTC is very likely to catch up—it's just a matter of time.
Do you think BTC will catch up later? Or will they go their separate ways completely from now on?
$BTC ，$BZ ，$XAU 。August 6 Market Review: SanDisk's financial reports deliver positive results, with earlier bulls taking profits early and exiting early. Veteran storage whales gradually buy back SNDK during declines.
When SNDK rose 8.4%, early long positions concentrated on reducing positions, weakening the long-short ratio and turning the funding rate negative; Even before the earnings report, there were long positions being closed and reversed to short positions.
This historically high win rate address took profits at $1,390 and exited. After the earnings report, the stock price plunged 11.8%, so it split into multiple levels to cover the market. Currently, it holds $5.733 million, with a 5 million reserve buy order below.
Since June, this address has made 14 profits from 16 transactions, with a cumulative profit of 5.634 million USD. Although the financial report showed a 51% quarter-on-quarter revenue surge, the market had already priced in the positive news in advance.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
$SNDK $ Sandisk beat the quarter. The market still wanted more.
Fiscal Q4 revenue reached $8.97B, up 51% sequentially and 372% YoY, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $39.25. The board also approved another $14B share repurchase program, taking the remaining authorization to $15.5B.
The details show how sharp, and uneven, the current flash cycle has become:
· About two-thirds of sequential revenue growth came from higher pricing, versus one-third from volume
· Datacenter revenue doubled quarter over quarter to $2.98B
· Consumer revenue fell 32% over the same period
· Q4 gross margin reached 84.6%
But expectations have moved even faster. Sandisk guided fiscal Q1 revenue to $10.3B-$10.8B and non-GAAP EPS to $44-$46. Shares traded lower after hours as investors focused on guidance that did not clear elevated expectations. Still, its 83%-85% non-GAAP gross-margin outlook suggests management expects margins to remain elevated.
The expanded buyback is notable alongside strong cash generation. Q4 free cash flow reached $7.08B, or $5.04B after adjusting for Flash Ventures activity and payments tied to its new business model agreements. Sandisk signed five more NBM agreements since April, including three with new customers, bringing the total to 10. Those agreements may improve demand visibility beyond the current pricing cycle.
There is a longer-term AI angle too. Sandisk and SK hynix released the first open High Bandwidth Flash specification through the Open Compute Project, targeting up to 512GB per package and bandwidth of up to 3TB/s for AI inference.
That leaves two stories in the same report. AI storage demand is accelerating, but much of the near-term upside still comes from NAND pricing. Investor Day on Aug 13 is the next opportunity for management to explain whether HBF and contracted demand can support more durable growth.
Do you see a lasting AI storage cycle here, or are expectations already running ahead of the fundamentals?
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #EarningsRealityCheck #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck #SandiskBeatAndBuyback Sandisk beat expectations, announced another $14B buyback… and still fell after hours 😅
Q4 revenue hit $8.97B with adjusted EPS of $39.25, but softer Q1 guidance spoiled the party. Classic market behavior: yesterday’s beat matters less than tomorrow’s outlook 📉
AI storage demand clearly isn’t the problem anymore. Now it’s all about whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash demand can justify the valuation.
Big buyback, cautious guidance — which signal are you trusting more? 👀#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck With explosive earnings reports and $14 billion in buybacks, why did SanDisk still fall?
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
If you only look at the numbers in SanDisk's financial report, it's really hard to find any obvious issues.
In the fourth quarter of SanDisk FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $8.97 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51%; Adjusted earnings per share reached $39.25, also above market expectations. Gross margin has reached 84.6%, with data center business revenue approaching $2.98 billion, more than doubling quarter-on-quarter.
In addition to performance growth, the board added $14 billion in share repurchase authorization. Including the original quota, the company's remaining repurchase amount has reached $15.5 billion.
According to a normal market script, after such a financial report comes out, the stock price should rise immediately. In reality, SanDisk experienced a pullback after the session.
This is not because the earnings report is poor, but because the market had already priced in the "very good" result in advance. By the time the financial report is finally released, what investors want is no longer just in line with expectations, but even more exaggerated than the previously high expectations.
SanDisk has set its next quarter revenue guidance at $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be between $44 and $46. Such growth is already very strong for an ordinary company, but it has not fully met the most aggressive expectations in the market.
Recently, savings stocks have risen too quickly, and the profits accumulated from their positions have been quite substantial. In this situation, as long as the financial report does not significantly raise the performance ceiling, some people will choose to sell some of the profits they have already made.
However, in this financial report, what I truly cared about was not the $14 billion buyback authorization, but where SanDisk's revenue growth actually came from.
The company disclosed that about one-third of this quarter's revenue growth came from increased shipments, and the other two-thirds from product price increases. This structure at least illustrates two things: AI data centers have strong demand for storage products, and the supply-demand relationship in the industry remains tight; However, the company's current high revenue and high profit also mean it is not low on NAND prices.
If product prices cannot continue to rise, even if market demand persists, SanDisk's revenue and gross margin growth may slow down first. This does not mean business will immediately decline; it's just that the growth rate driven by previous price increases may not be sustained indefinitely.
So, is AI storage a long-term opportunity? My judgment is still yes. But long-term opportunities do not mean that related stocks will only rise from now on and will not pull back.
What is truly worth watching next are mainly three aspects: whether data center business revenue can continue to grow, whether product price increases can be sustained, and whether the gross margin above 84% can be maintained.
Looking solely at the amount of repurchase authorization is actually not very meaningful. The board's permission to repurchase up to $15.5 billion does not mean management will immediately use up all of these funds. Compared to the authorized figures, whether companies are willing to continue using cash for buybacks better reflects management's true attitude toward the current stock price.
I feel that SanDisk's fundamentals remain very strong; the short-term problem is that market expectations have moved too fast, and it has already moved ahead of its earnings.
Good tracks can certainly be followed, but the price at the time of purchase is equally important. The question left by the market for SanDisk is no longer "can the company make money," but "how long can such high profit margins last?"
$XSNDK Commenting on a news story that's easily misunderstood. Samsung and SK Hynix have seen their stock prices plummet in the past couple of days, causing an uproar in the market: are they at the top, or are they just selling at the wrong price? Goldman Sachs is quite conservative—HBM is expected to double next year, and SK Hynix is about to announce a buyback plan soon. On one side, stock prices plunged; on the other, institutions were calling for price hikes + leading stocks preparing to buy back to support the market. This divergence itself was information. My take: a pit created by emotional breakdowns and a pitfall caused by weakening fundamentals are two different things; don't confuse them. The storage narrative isn't finished yet; a pullback doesn't mean the logic is broken. Those who understand understand that the real issue has never been "whether it has fallen," but "why it has fallen."📊 $CL Contract Liquidation Express (August 6)
According to liquidation data, the bulls in this wave were brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $21,900
Long position liquidations about $21,900
Short position liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $52,900
Long position liquidations about $30,300
Short position liquidations about $22,600
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $219,500
Long position liquidations about $177,900
Short position liquidations about $41,600
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $812,600
Long position liquidations about $556,900
Short position liquidations about $255,700
From the $CL liquidation data, long position liquidations monopolize the entire 1-hour period, shorts are zero, indicating a fierce short-squeeze blitz at the start; the 4-hour long advantage narrows, ratio drops to 1.34 times, squeeze power significantly strengthens; 12-hour longs regain strength, ratio rises to 4.28 times, long liquidations erupt comprehensively; 24-hour long liquidations soar to $556,900, 2.18 times that of shorts. The dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of longs on CL—short, medium, and long-term longs are all targeted and blasted, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $810,000. The bulls are bleeding heavily, the long liquidation market is unstoppable. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | August 6
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly good"—"exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket, any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + $14B buyback, still knocked down by "not impressive enough"
SanDisk delivered a smashing earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.97B, up 372% YoY; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14B stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25B, up 175% YoY.
However, after-hours stock price once plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter’s guidance—midpoint revenue $10.55B, below market expectation of $10.82B. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% implies high margins may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14B buyback is not enough—the market demands "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC steady growth, Arc becomes new narrative
Before market on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701M, up 7% YoY; net profit $48M, turning profitable from loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3B, up 19% YoY; on-chain transaction volume $14.8T, soaring 151% YoY.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310M-$330M, mainly reflecting $242M Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market is betting on. With crypto payment penetration continuously rising, Circle is trying to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, unlocking peak is the real storm
After market on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814B, up 92% YoY, far exceeding the expected $6.9B; adjusted EBITDA $3.5B.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4B, 6.5 times that of the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. The bigger storm is on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares unlock, with a market value of $114B, equivalent to 1.4 times the current float. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth led to an after-hours plunge, SpaceX’s 92% revenue growth led to market voting with feet—"exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance, every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $QQQ -0.9% is still sliding down, while $BTC is surprisingly in the green. I'm not in a rush to follow this stubborn short-term long position—who's holding up? Can anyone hold through the night and last two days? Looking at the numbers $BTC 64,676 +0.78% $ETH 1,910 +2.12% $QQQ -0.90% $SPY -0.20% $IBIT +0.96% $DXY -0.19% $GLD +4.14% Hormuz and crude oil are still fueling inflation expectations, US Treasuries and the Fed continue to tighten the string on high-valuation assets, and the Let me share a signal that made me a bit alert. AI unicorn MiniMax's registered capital grew from 1 billion to 5.5 billion in just half a year—more than fivefold. The crazy valuation of AI in the primary market is already on par with the semiconductors in the secondary market, which surges daily. I don't deny that AI is a real trend, but a 'real trend' and 'reasonable prices now' are two different things—the internet industry in 2000 was also a real trend, and it didn't stop a bunch of companies from going to zero. When everyone believes in a story and money pours in without hesitation, that's exactly when I, as a trader, should stay calm. It's not about being bearish, it's about reminding myself: just because the trend is true doesn't mean everyone who rushes in now will make money.#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
黄金$XAU 冲上4200美元，白银突破62美元，但比特币$BTC 依然停留在6.4万—6.5万美元附近，这背后反映的不是数字黄金失效，而是资金正在重新选择方向。
目前市场最大的特点是，热钱依然集中在美股，尤其是AI、科技股方向。相比之下，币圈流动性明显不足，资金并没有大规模回流加密市场。
今年以来，美股科技巨头用业绩证明AI商业化正在落地，资金愿意为增长买单，黄金则受益于降息预期和避险情绪，成为资金的防守选择。而比特币夹在中间，既没有黄金那么强的避险属性，也暂时没有美股那种明确的盈利故事，所以资金选择观望。
比特币像一辆性能极强的跑车，但现在赛道上的燃油大部分被美股这辆赛车吸走了。只有当美股上涨空间收窄，或者美联储真正进入宽松周期，市场寻找新的高收益资产时，资金才可能重新流向币圈。
所以现在不能简单说BTC失去了数字黄金叙事，更准确的说法是，资金还没有轮动到它。
市场每一轮行情都有顺序，先是确定性资产吸引资金，再是风险资产接棒。黄金已经启动，美股正在狂欢，而比特币可能还在等待下一轮流动性浪潮。
以上仅个人观点！#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
SpaceX这财报看得我目瞪口呆！
营收78亿美金，同比暴增92%，远超市场预期的69亿，净亏损还收窄了46%！这数据放在任何一家公司身上，盘后都得起飞。结果呢？盘后跌超8%，盘前直接跌超10%！这剧本谁写的？
凭什么？就因为它烧钱烧得太狠了！
一个季度资本开支183.69亿美金，同比暴增550%。86%的钱扔进AI算力基础设施，整整158亿美金！分析师只猜了132亿，完全低估了马斯克的疯批程度。虽说CFO保证回本不到一年，但市场不是来听故事的，是来看赚钱的。
但这还不是最恐怖的，明天才见真章！
美东时间周四，9.12亿股限售股解禁，按目前股价算，约1140亿美金市值。这是美国资本市场史上最大规模的锁定期解禁！现在流通盘也就总股本5%左右，9亿多股突然砸进来，等于流通盘翻了1.4倍。机构经纪商直接放话"抛售将难以抗拒"，内部人士套现动力太强了，毕竟有些人的成本远远低于135美元的发行价。
说句实在话，这公司我不敢碰。
拆开来看，星链二季度用户冲到1200万，同比翻倍，运营利润16.6亿，是唯一盈利的板块，确实是印钞机。AI业务暴增247%到25.6亿，运营亏损还环比收窄了49%，其实在进步。但架不住外围全是雷，解禁洪峰还没过，空头头寸已经干到2.2亿股了，约等于自由流通股的34%。
明天解禁到底多少人会跑路？没人知道答案。这个位置进去赌方向，跟接飞刀没区别。有胆量的拿住信仰，没胆量的，等它把这波解禁洪峰扛过去再看。
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 $SPCX $SNDK SanDisk released its earnings report, slightly below expectations
In fact, SanDisk has risen a lot and also fallen deeper; its fundamentals are not as strong as Micron's.
In this AI-driven cycle, HBM is the biggest beneficiary, while SanDisk does not directly compete in the HBM market.
The NAND Flash competitive landscape is more fragmented, with Yangtze Memory holding about a 13% share and a higher proportion in the consumer segment, making it more sensitive to weak end-user demand.
SanDisk and SK Hynix jointly released the HBF standard as a long-term strategy, but it cannot contribute to revenue in the short term.
The price of 1TB solid-state drives has risen from about $45 to nearly $90, and consumer "can't afford it" sentiment is spreading.
If consumer demand experiences a cliff-like drop, even with strong data center demand, memory prices may peak earlier than expected.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Note a temperature gap easily overshadowed by new US stock highs. Today, the Asia-Pacific side was noticeably cold: the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2% and the Hang Seng Index dropped 1.86%; South Korea was even more direct: in the fourth week of July, credit card spending fell 12.9% year-on-year, the largest single-week drop since the start of the year, driven by a stock market plunge combined with record high temperatures. On one side is the US AI surge, the Nasdaq hitting new highs; on the other, Asia-Pacific stocks and consumption are cooling simultaneously—the so-called global risk-on is actually highly divided. Against this backdrop, $BTC stuck around 64K, failing to keep up with US stocks and benefiting from safe-haven funds, missing out on both. Data won't play along with you.## Clarity Act最后48小时：参议院跳过周一投票，行业施压升级
参议院夏季休会已进入最后48小时倒计时，但Clarity Act仍未列入投票日程。周一参议院跳过法案表决，优先处理其他议程，令加密行业感到焦虑。Grayscale和Stand With
Crypto等组织正在加大施压力度，敦促领导层在休会前安排投票。
Senator Lummis表示仍相信法案能在8月前获得投票机会，但伦理条款的谈判仍是核心障碍。参议员Gallego和Tillis正在敲定的两党伦理妥协方案，是解锁民主党支持的关键。若能在未来48小时内达成共识，法案仍有可能在本周推进。
## 两种情景推演
**情景一：本周投票（概率~35%）**
Thune此前已确认将推动投票，但未提交cloture意味着更多谈判时间。若伦理妥协方案在最后时刻达成，法案可能以"打包"形式进入快速通道。投票一旦确认，BTC有望突破$65K-$70K。
**情景二：推迟至9月（概率~50%）**
参议院跳过周一投票是负面信号，法案在最后48小时内完成所有程序性步骤的难度较大。若推迟，短期BTC可能回踩$62K支撑，但跌幅有限——市场已部分定价了这一结果。行业将进入为期一个月的"立法真空期"。
**情景三：延长会期（概率~15%）**
参议院可能延长会期至8月中旬，为Clarity Act创造新的窗口。若有迹象表明延长会期正在推进，市场情绪将快速改善，BTC有望重新测试$65K。
## 链上数据：算力创新高，矿工持续增持
在价格横盘的同时，比特币网络算力在8月初创下历史新高，表明矿工对长期前景保持信心。算力上升通常被视为网络健康状况的积极信号，也意味着矿工生产成本上升，对BTC价格形成隐性支撑。
矿工持仓数据显示，尽管价格在$64K附近整理，矿工并未出现大规模抛售，反而在持续增持。交易所余额维持在低位，长期持有者持仓比例稳定，链上基础面保持健康。
## 总结
BTC在$64K附近整理，Clarity
Act进入最后48小时博弈窗口。参议院跳过周一投票是短期负面信号，但行业施压升级和延长会期选项为市场保留了希望。$64,587（50日EMA）是技术面关键阻力，$62,662是下方支撑。建议密切关注参议院议事日程，任何投票时间确认都是潜在的方向性催化剂。ETH从1860美元附近反弹，一度冲到1947美元，目前在1919美元左右。我在1900上方追了一笔多单，最高浮盈不错，结果想着“再拿一下”，利润被回撤吃掉一半。好在ETH今天重新站回1900，鲸鱼多单、空头回补和RWA在以太坊二层网络继续扩张，给了行情一点底气。
短线我盯1900能否由压力变支撑，守住可继续看1950，真正让多头舒服还得突破2000；若重新跌破1860，下一站可能又是1800。现在的ETH像个刚健完身的人，肌肉是有了，但还得证明不是拍照角度。
你最近做ETH，是它给你发红包，还是你给市场交学费？$ETH $BTC
#ETH #以太坊 #永续合约不构成投资建议。今日加密叙事｜币圈正在发生一场“信任大迁徙”
市场表面上在等比特币突破，水面之下，资金却已经悄悄换了船。
截至发稿，比特币约报 64,478 美元，日内波动不大。但真正值得注意的不是价格，而是钱正流向哪里：美国现货比特币 ETF 单日净流入约 1.72 亿美元，以太坊 ETF 也获得约 6,008 万美元净流入。恐慌尚未完全散去，机构资金却已连续伸手——这更像试探性吸筹，而不是情绪高潮。ETF资金数据
与此同时，Circle 公布了一组更有野心的数字：USDC 流通量达到 733 亿美元，同比增长19%；二季度链上交易量达到 14.8 万亿美元。更关键的是，Circle 的 Arc 主网计划于9月16日上线，首批参与者包括 BlackRock、DTCC、Mastercard、Visa、ICE 和渣打银行等传统金融巨头。Circle二季度公告#
这不是简单的“机构入场”，而是华尔街开始亲自铺设链上金融的轨道。
故事的另一面更加残酷：Coldcard 硬件钱包因随机数生成缺陷导致部分旧设备创建的助记词安全性不足，官方明确提醒——**升级固件无法修复已经生成的旧助记词，相关用户需要迁移资金。**与此同时，长期被视为“只买不卖”的 Strategy 最近出售了1,638枚比特币，目前仍持有842,138枚。Coldcard安全公告｜Strategy持仓账本
所以，今天真正的主线并非“牛市是否回来”，而是：
加密资产的信任中心，正在从个人冷钱包和单一企业资产负债表，迁往ETF、稳定币与受监管的机构网络。
这未必立即推高币价，却可能决定下一轮增量资金从哪扇门进入。
未来24–72小时关键信号：
ETF净流入能否连续维持，而非昙花一现
比特币能否有效站稳约64,000美元区域
Coldcard事件是否出现更大损失或新的受影响设备
资金是否从BTC进一步扩散至ETH及主流山寨币
以上为信息整理与市场叙事分析，不构成投资建议。The overnight overall trend of U.S. stocks was extremely fragmented, which is a typical structural rally. The late plunge does not indicate systemic risk in the market.
Market differentiation was very clear: the Dow rose against the trend and hit a new closing high, the S&P closed slightly lower, and the Nasdaq fell even more. The core was that funds were withdrawing from high-end tech growth tracks and shifting toward traditional undervalued blue chips like healthcare and materials.
This late-session weakness was caused by multiple negative factors combined with demand from high-level funds, with concentrated sentiment released and then a correction rally.
Core Plunge Triggers 📉
- Tech giant personnel changes: Alphabet has adjusted its core AI management team, with significant changes in core personnel responsibilities, which the market interprets as a major adjustment to the company's AI strategy. As a major index weight, the sharp drop in stock prices directly dragged down the S&P and Nasdaq at the close, serving as the most direct trigger for the market's plunge.
- Concentrated Fulfillment of Positive Tech Financial Reports: After the release of multiple core tech companies' earnings reports this round, funds began to be realized at high levels. AMD's performance met targets but its profit margins and future guidance did not exceed market expectations. Coupled with SpaceX's official announcement to prioritize Nvidia chips, its stock price plunged over 7%. SpaceX's financial reports show fundamentals have recovered, but concerns over high AI capital expenditures and cash flow consumption pressures have led to sharp corrections in individual stocks, prompting the market to reassess the AI sector's investment return logic. The storage sector weakened simultaneously, Western Digital posted a lackluster performance, and combined with previous high gains and a continued decline in consumer storage business, sentiment in the technology sector was further suppressed.
- Fed Hawkish Statement: Fed officials stated that U.S. inflation remains elevated and the economy remains resilient, with no short-term conditions for monetary easing, completely dispelling market expectations for rate cuts, significantly suppressing valuations of high-end growth stocks, and amplifying risk aversion at the close.
In my personal view, this is a normal structural correction rather than a trend reversal ✅
From the overall market signals, this adjustment is merely a valuation recovery and sentiment fulfillment for high-level tech stocks, not a mid-term market trend reversal.
The Dow Jones hit new highs and funds continue to switch between blue chip sectors, indicating that overall market bullish sentiment has not collapsed.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields and international crude oil remained stable, with no systemic risk release; this was merely a structural trend of sector style switching and internal AI funds selecting the best.
$SPCX $AMD $NVDA #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
SpaceX's earnings report was stunning: Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion (+92% year-on-year, expected $6.9 billion), net loss narrowed by 46% to $541 million—logically, post-hours should have taken off. As a result, it fell 8% in after-hours trading and 10%+ in pre-market trading.
There are only two reasons for the sell-off: first, capital expenditure of 18.369 billion yuan (+550% year-on-year), with 15.8 billion invested in AI computing power, far exceeding the expected 13.2 billion yuan, and the market ignored the story of "one-year break-even returns"; Second, tomorrow (8/6), 912 million shares will be restricted and unlocked, with a market value of about $114 billion. The free float will increase 1.4 times—the largest IPO in US history. Insiders are maxed out with cash-out momentum, and short positions have piled up to 220 million shares (34% of free float).
Looking closely, Starlink doubled its 12 million users and 1.66 billion yuan in operating profit, making it a money printer. AI revenue was 2.56 billion yuan (+247%), and losses were still collected, but it couldn't withstand the peak of unlocking + burning money. Entering this position is like catching a flying knife. Wait until you get through the unlock before dealing with it. I won't touch it. $SPCX $BTC 📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (August 6)
According to liquidation data, this bull market was frantically rubbed by the bull market...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $2,166.41
The long position liquidation was about $983.00
Short liquidation was about $1,183.41
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was about $33,900
Long positions were liquidated at about $32,400
Short liquidation at about $1,424.87
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $2.6635 million
The long position liquidation was about $2.2946 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $368,800
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $6.7763 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $5.2506 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $1.5257 million
From the $SPCX liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations slightly exceeded the long positions, with initial short squeezes appearing but not large differences; The 4-hour direction reversed, with long positions overwhelming the bears. The bulls were 22.7 times the shorts, with a full-scale explosion of the long selling; the 12-hour bullish advantage persisted, about 6.2 times, with the long sell-offs running through the short to medium cycle; the 24-hour long liquidation soared to $5.25 million, 3.4 times the bears' price. Gouzhuang completed a full-cycle slaughter of the bulls on SPCX—short, medium, and long-term bulls were targeted from all directions, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $6.77 million. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 6
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year earlier; the board approved a $14 billion share buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 175%.
However, in after-hours trading, the stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance—median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The guidance of a gross margin of 83%-85% suggests that high gross margins may enter a plateau phase. 372% growth is insufficient, and the 14 billion yuan buyback is insufficient—what the market wants is "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; Net profit was $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%; On-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–$330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
After hours, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market values efficiency in spending rather than burning through it. An even bigger storm occurred on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, bringing the unlocking market value to $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current outstanding shares. In less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to the "answer sheet" stage, every deviation in guidance and every dollar of capital expenditure will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is taking shape—and it punishes all the answers that are "imperfect." #闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? 聊条快讯，懂的都懂。长鑫存储直接拒绝了苹果的降价要求，报价向三星、海力士看齐——这条比涨价本身更值得琢磨。过去是终端大厂（苹果）说了算，供应商只能被压价；现在存储厂敢对苹果说「不」，说明定价权正在从买方向卖方转移。叠加内存短缺喊到 2027 年、产能提前售罄，这是一轮实打实的供给侧叙事。它外溢到币圈的逻辑是：市场正在给「有真实供需支撑的硬资产」重新定价，而 $BTC 这种纯叙事驱动的资产，短期反而被冷落。走着看，看这波钱最后会不会溢回加密。参议院会在8月7日正式休会，下一次复会是在9月11日。清晰法案基本确定继续延迟～
CLARITY法案想在8月7日投票“法案是否通过”，那么必须先终止“法案的辩论程序”，并且留足30个小时的讨论期。也就是说，必须要在8月5号投票“是否终止辩论程序”。
但要投票终止辩论程序，就必须要16名参议员提前2天提交申请，也就是说8月3号必须要提交申请。但8月3号的议程已经公布了，没人提交申请。也就是说，按正常流程来不及在8月7号讨论了。$XRP 正处于1.05美元关键支撑位磨损与大户提币吸筹的弱势博弈中，技术指标走弱与链上筹码锁定呈现截然不同的结构信号。
日线级别RSI跌至43.71并低于移动平均线44.87，配合零轴下方的弱势MACD，表明盘面动能匮乏。1.05至1.06美元区域自6月下旬以来经历多次测试，反复测试导致支撑强度递减，增加了短线向下突破的概率。
当前主导定价的因素依次为宏观监管压制、交易所筹码流出速度以及关键技术关口得失。CLARITY法案在参议院搁置与S&P Global剔除指数构成宏观压制，但Coinbase净充提指标降至-10900且30日实现波动率收窄至0.34新低，显示锁定筹码正积聚变盘能量。
多头突破剧本需满足日线收盘站稳1.06美元并带量攻克1.10美元阻力区，此情况下大户吸筹逻辑激活，下方防守失效点设定在1.02美元；若反弹无法触及1.10美元，升势将难以持续。
空头下行剧本触发条件为日线收盘跌破1.05美元支撑，下行空间将打开至1.01美元与1.00美元心理关口。若价格在1.00美元附近出现大额净提币与止跌信号，下行结构宣告失效。
实现波动率0.34收窄至三个月低位，意味着变盘窗口临近，在破位或突破方向确立前，右侧信号确认优于左侧预判。在攻克1.10美元阻力或跌破1.05美元支撑之前，盘面尚不具备高盈亏比的建仓环境。
未来7天核心观察变量在于1.05美元日线收盘价得失、30日实现波动率能否向上抬升，以及交易所净充提指标是否维持负值。
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧The previous round of 64.0K is still holding, but the real divergence shifted from direction to time frame: Chen Ge traded intraday pullbacks, Dongbi Cat did multi-year dollar-cost averaging.
Brother Chen's $BTC short position was triggered between 63.9K and 64.2K; admit mistake at 64.9K and look below 62.8K to 61.8K; If it falls to support, he is actually prepared to trade for a long position. Dongbi Cat will start investing regularly in $BTC spot from now on, emphasizing fixed positions and no leverage; Unity Academy also took advantage of the $VELVET rebound to take profits and exited, without further chasing.
Overall judgment: short-term shorting and long-term regular investment are not contradictory. Returning to 64.9K, intraday short positions should be downgraded first; Only when the near-end support is broken and the rebound fails will the lower target be confirmed. Will you pull back first, or allocate spot stocks in batches?
Anonymous $1000 RATS, $KGEN outcry, and commission-based $AAVE and $AXS plans have no official catalyst and will not be listed in this round.
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment adviceTo calculate the supply and demand account for the storage supercycle, just look at the numbers. In the first half of the year, global mainstream DRAM manufacturers combined revenue of $284.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 300%; Institutions bluntly warn that memory shortages may continue into 2027, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron already having their capacity sold out early. A more critical signal is the power to speak—Changxin Memory directly rejected Apple's price cut request, quoting in line with Samsung and SK Hynix. When major terminal manufacturers start passively accepting seller pricing, it means this is not a short-term shortage but a structural mismatch. $BTC In this cycle, the market has not benefited; incremental funds are all heading toward areas with certainty narratives. Do you think this wave of storage is a real cycle, or a capacity rush?Today, $BICO continues to rise, and logically, it should be time to short it now. However, after observing its contract data, I found that it is not very suitable for shorting. Personally, I think this is not a good opportunity to short at the moment. Although its price is relatively high now, the funds going long are still relatively abundant, and there might be another significant rise ahead. We shouldn't rush to short it now. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. We can see that its contract open interest is rapidly increasing, and the long-short ratio of contracts is mostly rising as well. This indicates that even at such a high price, there are still many funds willing to go long. Let's also look at its longer-term data. The longer-term data is relatively more complex. We can see that its open interest had a rising phase yesterday. At that time, the corresponding long-short ratio was decreasing, so we can observe that $BICO has been in a correction from yesterday until now. During the correction phase, its open interest rapidly declined, and the long-short ratio rose. This indicates that many shorts exited during the correction from yesterday until now. Then, from early yesterday until now, its contract open interest has increased to some extent. We just reviewed its detailed process, and indeed quite a few people are going long. Does this mean it's time to go long now? I also don't recommend going long because its long-short ratio is still declining in the end. In other words$SNDK SNDK SanDisk｜Post-Earnings Market Analysis📊
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Earnings Highlights Review
Just released Q4 FY2026: This quarter's performance data exceeded market expectations across the board, with revenue of $8.97 billion, EPS of $39.25, and a gross margin of 84.6%; the data center business maintained rapid growth, and the company added a $14 billion buyback plan, showing fundamentally strong performance.
However, the mid-point of next quarter's revenue guidance is below the market consensus, which became the main trigger for the recent stock price pressure. The stock closed down 5.4% on the regular trading day and declined further in after-hours trading, dragging the storage sector down collectively.
In simple terms: past results were very good, but the market's expectations for the future were higher. The guidance did not meet the elevated optimistic expectations, leading investors to take profits and exit, rather than a direct collapse in AI storage demand.
Technical Market Update
Previously, the rebound was an oversold recovery after a big drop; after the earnings release, the rebound logic was challenged.
🔸Key Resistance
First resistance: 1400-1420 (previous rebound highs); strong resistance at 1480-1500.
After the earnings-driven sell-off, the area above 1400 has turned into a strong resistance zone. To reverse the short-term weakness, volume must increase and the price must reclaim this level.
🔸Key Support
First support: 1260-1300; core defense level at 1240.
Personal Current View
The underlying logic of mid-to-long-term AI storage and long-term contract orders has not been damaged by the earnings, but short-term sentiment has weakened.
Before earnings, I defined the market as a corrective rebound during a downtrend; after earnings, this judgment was confirmed.
Until volume-driven stabilization above 1420 occurs, the priority is to consider the possibility of a weakening consolidation.
Two scenarios:
1) Hold the 1240-1260 support zone, maintain range-bound consolidation, and wait for sector sentiment to recover;
2) A volume-driven break below the 1240 defense level would signal the end of the rebound and open a new round of correction.
#In-depth review post (suitable for Planet main posts, with interaction)
Index hits new highs, individual stocks are being slaughtered—understanding the most tangled reality of the US stock market today
Right now, the US stock market is very fragmented: the Dow Jones and S&P keep hitting new all-time highs, but many tech stocks plunge after their earnings reports are released.
Not all stocks will rise just because the market is bullish; this earnings season isn't about how much money you make for the period, but about management's guidance for the future.
SanDisk and Western Digital posted explosive results this quarter, with revenue and profit significantly exceeding expectations. However, because next quarter's guidance did not meet the market's extreme optimistic expectations, they were hit hard after the market closed; SPCX and AMD also saw significant revenue growth, but also experienced sharp pullbacks due to poor expectations.
Core logic: The stock price had already priced in the good story ahead of time.
No matter how good the results have already become, they are all in the past; capital trading reflects future growth rates. Once the outlook cools, high valuations will shrink rapidly.
Sector differentiation is clearly visible:
✅ Traditional blue chips and consumer pharmaceuticals withstood the volatility, and the market's new highs mainly relied on them as the bottom.
⚠️AI hardware and memory chips have fluctuated explosively, and the market still has a booming economy, but the market's margin for error has become extremely low, and even a slight gap in expectations leads to sell-offs.
We still need to wait for major nonfarm payroll and CPI data. Inflation data will directly affect expectations for Fed rate cuts and further amplify market volatility.
🔥 Direction of capital concentration:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Personal market analysis:
🥇 $BTC — Controlling overall market liquidity is the core driving force of the overall market
🏧 $ETH — Funds are accumulating at a sustained low level, steadily accumulating momentum
🚀 $SOL — A highly elastic leader in the Layer 1 sector, with maxed offensive attributes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI-themed topics remain highly popular, continuing to attract financial support
📊 $HYPE — Can be used to measure overall market risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Visually reflects the bullish and bearish sentiment of ordinary retail investors
🇺🇸 US Stocks:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Fading Popularity, Weakening of Upward Momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔭 Backup tracking observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
我的看法很简单：闪迪这次财报，利好出尽就是利空。
EPS从0.29干到39.25，毛利率84.6%，营收破百亿，还扔出140亿回购。单看数字确实硬，但盘后跌了8%——市场已经提前把预期打满了，现在业绩兑现，反而没了继续拿着的理由。跟英伟达前几次财报一个路数，数字炸裂，股价横盘甚至回调，因为市场要的是“还能不能更好”，而不是“现在有多好”。
紧缺和HBF的故事已经讲了两三个月，股价从底部也翻了不少。现在财报把故事全验证了，后面怎么看？指引中值105.5亿，市场要111.6亿，差了6个亿就砸盘——说明资金已经开始计较细节了，不再是之前闭眼买入的氛围。
回购140亿这事，结合7月跌了47%的背景，更像是公司给套牢盘的一个交代。美光去年也干过类似的事，回购一宣布股价稳几天，之后该怎么走还怎么走。三星那边也不乐观，NAND涨到下游快扛不住了，客户库存堆得老高，这波紧缺到底有多少是真实需求、多少是囤货，大家心里都有数。长江存储产能一上来，供需反转只是时间问题。
闪迪这票，故事永远比账本好听。这次也一样。就看这波情绪杀透之后，能不能捡点肉吃了。 #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
$XAU $XAUT Gold rose from over 3,900 points to over 4,200 points
Weak ADP employment data has opened expectations for rate cuts, which in turn reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold
Gold has continued to be bought by central banks in other countries, and secondly, easing geopolitical tensions have eased market concerns about inflation, leading to further gains
As for $BTC, the lack of new funds to buy Bitcoin is mainly due to internal divergence in crypto market fund flows
BTC is consolidating in the 60,000-67,000 range, adjusting, and the price is close to the 200-week moving average at around $63,700
Second, the BTC digital gold narrative has not been activated, and most funds are currently flowing into popular sectors like AI. BTC needs breakthrough progress that may attract new capital inflow
More importantly, they are waiting for key data such as the nonfarm payroll report
@OKX Planet @Mini Minnie_OKX @Baxi Zora_OKX Tonight marks SpaceX's first stock lock-up, and it's the largest lock-up period after an IPO in US stock history.
1. According to the unlocking rules, after releasing the financial report the day before yesterday, today is the unlocking day, unlocking 20% of the shares held by insiders and employees, which is 912 million shares. At current prices, that's a potential selling pressure of over 100 billion. #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
2. This group is very likely to cash out and improve their lives. Today's lifting of the ban is likely the most intense selling pressure. Moreover, on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24, about 7% of the stock limit will be lifted, meaning the second half of the year should be the period when $SPCX's share price is under the most pressure.
3. Plus, as Musk clearly stated during the earnings call: $18.4 billion in capital expenditure is fully invested in AI infrastructure, and will continue to be slashed aggressively, aiming for over 2GW of computing power by year-end and nearly 10GW by the end of next year. This means there won't be any cash this year or even next, which has further heightened everyone's worries.
4. By the way, SpaceX said in its earnings report they bought 18,712 $BTC, but I estimate BTC won't be unaffected. After all, S&P just hit a record high, and if SpaceX's unban triggers a pullback in tech stocks, crypto will also be affected