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Just look at this fork chain—it's clear that computing power can't keep up, block generation slows down, and height continues to lag behind.
This precisely illustrates the core value of $DMT-NAT—it can revitalize the entire Bitcoin mining industry, provide miners with ongoing fee income, and attract more computing power to enter the market; Once hash power scale increases, Bitcoin's block production rhythm naturally stabilizes, and the underlying security of the entire network is firmly maintained. Forced liquidations, huge losses, forced stock sales at a discount—this is the playbook of losers on Wall Street. But in Silicon Valley, this has become a signal to "buy the dip." The 25-year-old "AI Stock God" Leopold Aschenbrenner suffered the most brutal drawdown of his career in July: 4x leverage weighed down his position, resulting in a net loss of 67% in July, forcing him to sell most of his public stock portfolio at a discount to Citadel. By Wall Street standards, this is a classic case of leverage runaway. But Silicon Valley's response was completely different. According to BlockBeats, after the liquidation, a wave of buying actually swept through—a large number of Silicon Valley investors proactively contacted the Situational Awareness fund within just a few days, expressing their intention to invest further. Pat Grady, a partner at Sequoia Capital, publicly stated: "He will be an important figure in Silicon Valley for a long time." Veteran venture capitalist Elad Gil also announced his first application to invest in the fund. Logan Bartlett, Managing Director of Redpoint Ventures, bluntly stated: "There is a hero archetype here—Leopold gets punched, but instead, it sparks unity among everyone." " Why do Silicon Valley and Wall Street have completely opposite views? A New York University professor explained this divide: Silicon Valley rewards those who judge the right direction in transformative technology—those who believe the direction is right and are willing to bet on the future even if their execution is flawed. Wall Street rewards those who preserve their principal while creating risk-adjusted returns—Recently, the market has shown a very fragmented trend: US stock-based tokens and various knockoffs are rotating and speculating, with profit-making effects concentrated in smaller cryptocurrencies; In contrast, the two leading crypto market leaders, BTC and ETH, have remained stagnant, with prolonged ranges fluctuating and fluctuations converging, and capital activity noticeably declining. In the crypto world, the real reason behind the harsh realities is the shift in capital choices. 1. Short-term funds chase narrative flexibility: US contract tokens are tied to the performance of overseas AI, storage, and optical module listed companies, serving as a sentiment anchor in the US market, making it easy to explode once good news materializes. Altcoin markets are small, and a small amount of capital can drive large surges, causing a large influx of short-term quick money players. The BTC and ETH market is huge, and to break through in major markets, massive incremental capital is needed. In the current stock game environment, it's hard for short-term funds to leverage them. 2. Macroeconomic constraints suppress mainstream currency performance. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, nonfarm payrolls, inflation, and other data continue to weigh on the market. $BTC is increasingly leaning toward macro risk assets. The movements of US Treasuries and the US dollar are directly tied to the market, and without clear signals of a monetary policy shift, it is difficult to open up sustained upward momentum. $ETH also compounded by internal narrative friction, with upgrades, staking, and ETF progress repeatedly and lacking strong catalysts, it is difficult to independently break out of a one-sided market away from BTC. Several future paths ✅ for BTC and ETH: Path One: Macro turning point arrives, incremental funds enter the market. The Federal Reserve has started a rate-cutting cycle, overall risk appetite in U.S. stocks has risen, spot ETFs have continued net inflows, and institutional funds have returnedLet's talk about INJ
I've always thought this coin is quite interesting.
It's not because it used to rise a lot, nor because it has fallen enough now, but because its token logic is relatively easy to understand among many public chains.
Now, when I look at altcoins, I increasingly focus on one thing: what exactly does project development have to do with tokens?
Many project ecosystems keep bringing good news every day, with collaborations coming one after another, but in the end, you'll find that projects are projects, and coins are coins.
INJ is at least trying to solve this problem.
INJ is now 100% in circulation, with no subsequent team or investor unlocking of supply pressure.
At the same time, Injective continues to carry out Community BuyBack.
The logic is straightforward: the ecosystem generates income to buy back INJ, and then permanently burns the repurchased INJ.
Currently, the official disclosure shows that cumulative burns have exceeded 7 million INJ.
This is an important reason why I am willing to follow it long-term.
But note, I'm talking about "tracking," not blindly bullish.
Buyback and burn sounds good, but what really determines whether it makes sense is whether Injective itself can continue generating revenue.
Without real usage, no matter how beautiful the deflation model is, it's just a math game.
So compared to INJ rising and falling a few points today, I'm more concerned now about whether Injective can truly break through the lines it is working on.
RWA, on-chain derivatives, native EVM, and AI Agent trading—these areas alone are not new stories.
The key is whether Injective can turn them into real trading volume and real fees.
There is another change this year worth keeping an eye on.
INJ futures have already appeared in regulated U.S. markets, and Injective is moving further toward traditional finance and compliance.
This means it aims to build more than just a crypto-native DEX ecosystem, but rather leans more toward on-chain financial infrastructure.
I agree with this direction.
But the market will not value you simply because the direction is "right."
It depends on the outcome.
So my attitude toward INJ now is very simple.
No guessing is the answer.
Nor does it mean it must be cheap just because it has dropped so much from its peak.
I'm just waiting for three things.
Real trading volume is rising.
Ecological income increases.
The scale of destruction has also increased.
If these three elements can continuously form a positive cycle, then INJ's deflationary model will truly be valuable.
Conversely, if ecosystem data never materializes, then "full circulation + buyback and burn" cannot save an asset lacking demand.
Over the years, playing with coins has made me less and less interested in listening to stories.
I like to see if a project can eventually turn its story into cash flow, and then pass that cash flow into tokens.
INJ at least gave me a framework worth further verifying.
So it's still on my watchlist.
Not faith.
It's about waiting for data to give you an answer.
Study trends and seek certainty.
Reject emotions, respect logic.
——Zero chain length
⚠️ The above represents only personal research and opinions and does not constitute any investment advice. INJ is a highly volatile crypto asset; please make independent judgments and manage your position and risk accordingly.
#INJ
#非农意外转负, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market stable? #黄金升破4300美元, are funds holding on to rate cuts or risk avoidance? A Brief Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trends from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Behavior (Part 2)
$BTC #星球日报
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the July 21 high of 66,914 has been reanalyzed:
Wave A decline (completed):
Wave A: 66,914 → 62,210 (August 3), a decrease of -4,704 (about -7.03%), a strong decline but failed to set a new low (above the July 8 low of 61,470).
Wave B rebound (which has evolved into a more complex structure, possibly a new round of upward waves):
B-a wave: 62,210 → 64,955 (August 5), with a rise of +2,745 (about +4.41%), showing strong strength.
B-b wave: 64,955 → 64,091 (August 6, 13:30), a decrease of -864 (about -1.33%), with a pullback of only 31.5%, indicating a strong consolidation.
Waves B-C: 64,091 → 65,348 (August 7, 12:45), with a magnitude of +1,257 (about +1.96%), showing strong strength.
X wave (correction): 65,348 → 64,790 (August 8, 00:15), range -558 (about -0.85%), very shallow pullback, indicating a very strong consolidation.
A new upward wave (unfolding):
Wave 1 (New): 64,790 → 65,149 (August 8, 14:30), amplitude +359, moderate strength.
Wave 2 pullback: 65,149 → 64,928 (01:00 on August 9), a decrease of -221 (about -0.34%), a very shallow pullback.
Wave 3 (current): Started from 64,928. If wave 3 breaks above the high of wave 1 at 65,149 and rises above 65,500, the 5-wave upward structure is confirmed.
Larger level structure: If 57,721 (July 1 low) to 66,914 (July 21 high) is considered the first wave of a new uptrend, then the current correction from 66,914 to 62,210 is a second wave correction. The second wave correction is 4,704, about 51.2% of the first wave gain of 9,193, which is a normal deep correction. If second wave has ended at 62,210, then the third wave is currently in the stage of initiating three waves, with the third wave target at least equal to the first wave, i.e., 62,210 + 9,193 = 71,403.
Wave conclusion: Currently possibly in the third wave phase of a new upward wave. The August 7 high of 65,348 has broken through the August 5 high of 64,955, confirming the continuation of the upward structure. The very shallow pullback on August 8 (only -0.85%) further confirmed strength. If the price can stabilize at 64,800-65,000 and continue to break above 65,500, the third wave will be confirmed, targeting 66,500-67,500; if it breaks below 64,500, the upward structure may fail again.
4. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: During the July 21 plunge, there was a clear increase in volume. From July 21 to August 3, during the downward phase, trading volume shrank overall, indicating selling pressure is gradually fading. At 09:45 on August 3, a signal for volume shrinking and a halt to decline appeared near 62,210. From the afternoon of August 3 to the rebound phase of August 5, trading volume moderately increased, with active volume-price coordination. On the evening of August 5, signs of increased volume stagnation appeared in the 64,800-64,900 range. On August 7, a strong volume breakout occurred, rising from 64,112 all the way to 65,348, with trading volume significantly expanding (about 1.3 billion yuan), marking the highest recent volume and indicating active entry by long capital. On August 8, the price fluctuated between 64,800 and 65,150 throughout the day, with trading volume noticeably shrinking, indicating that both bulls and bears have temporarily reached a balance and selling pressure is extremely limited. In the early hours of August 9, the price consolidated narrowly around 64,900, with trading volume shrinking further. Overall, the combination of "volume shrinks on decline + volume shrinks at the bottom and stops falling + volume increases on rebound + volume shrinks through consolidation" is extremely positive.
Key Volume and Price Nodes:
At 09:45 on August 3, trading volume began to decline (trading volume was only about 50 million yuan), forming a phase bottom at 62,210.
At 19:30 on August 3, a high-volume bullish candlestick appeared (trading volume around 450 million), rising from 63,365 to 64,019, confirming the start of the bullish counterattack.
At 20:15 on August 5, a massive bullish candlestick appeared (trading volume around 520 million), rising from 64,750 to 64,955, confirming the high point of the B-A wave.
At 13:30 on August 6, a shrinking bearish candlestick appeared (trading volume around 120 million), pulling back from 64,800 to 64,091, confirming the B-b wave low.
At 12:45 on August 7, a massive bullish candlestick appeared (trading volume around 1.3 billion yuan), rising from 64,936 to 65,348, confirming the start of wave 3 (or B-c wave), marking the highest trading volume recently.
On August 8, the market saw a consolidation with reduced volume (trading volume around 100 million to 200 million yuan), with prices fluctuating between 64,800 and 65,150 yuan, confirming a very strong consolidation.
In the early hours of August 9, there was a sharp contraction in volume (trading volume around 30 million yuan), with prices consolidating narrowly within the 64,900-65,000 range.
Recent volume-price status: In the early hours of August 9, trading volume shrank significantly, and the price consolidated within a narrow range of 64,900-65,000, which is normal digestion after a breakout with very limited selling pressure.
Volume-price conclusion: After breaking through 65,000 on August 7 with increased volume, volume decreased and consolidation began on August 8-9, with very positive volume-price coordination. Key observation points: If the pullback falls to 64,500-64,800 with reduced volume and stopping the decline, the third wave may continue; If volume increases below 64,500 below, the rebound will end. SPCX$SPCX surged 16% in one day—why did the market suddenly reprice space assets?
Recently, an interesting phenomenon has appeared in the market.
AI stocks are still enjoying industry dividends, but another tech sector, SPCX, suddenly rebounded with increased volume. The latest trading data shows SPCX closed at $133.11 in a single day, up nearly 15.9%, showing a clear recovery from the previous day's $114.92.
Many retail investors, upon seeing this trend, first react: Is this short-term speculation?
But true market watchers focus on another detail—closing and acceptance.
Previously, SPCX faced pressure from unlocking restrictions, and the market was once worried that a large number of newly circulated shares would cause selling pressure, with about 911.5 million shares entering tradable status. However, instead of sustained decline, capital was absorbed instead.
This indicates that the focus of capital trading is shifting from short-term chip changes to long-term industrial value.
Why is the AI market in the US stock market so strong now?
Because companies like Nvidia and Microsoft have entered the stage of realizing their earnings, capital is seeing revenue growth and industry demand.
SPCX, on the other hand, is different.
The market deals on space infrastructure for the next decade, including satellite internet, commercial launches, and future communication networks.
This is also something many retail investors tend to overlook.
Not all tech assets have to rise simultaneously.
AI is the industry realization cycle.
SPCX is more like the future industry expectation cycle.
The crypto world follows a similar logic: currently, people are more waiting for their own cycles to trigger the catalyst, rather than simply following US stocks. There's always a shortage of hindsight comments, no matter the time
$SPCX On weekends, the stock market is closed and can reach 137 before the market opens
How many air force units have been liquidated while sleeping with this single needle?
Right now, it's not a project boost for a rally, but a targeted explosion
They want to intimidate the Air Force. There are now rumors that next week it will reach 150
At the IPO price, the initial investors thought it was okay and didn't sell and waited for the price to rise
Even now at 135, short positions still amount to about 20 billion
Is the pull of point-of-point blasting sustainable? Obviously not
Such repeated ups and downs make no difference to an altcoin
Is SPCX working? Let's see next week #earningsObserver: Rebound after lifting restrictions, what do you think about SpaceX's future? Currently, $AAOI's core contradiction is that the market overestimates its milestone delivery capability for optical modules, while actual orders are being squeezed by peer shipment capacity. This fulfillment capability deviation is accelerating risk appetite exit through position restructuring.
Funds on the board are extremely sensitive to the pace of delivery milestones, and delays in shipments and fulfillment on the industrial side quickly spread to the chip side.
In terms of driver ranking, actual delivery progress and fulfillment ranked first, followed by the ability of industry capacity to divert massive orders, and macro risk appetite shifting toward defensive assets again.
When fulfillment expectations diverge, institutions' tolerance for high valuations in tech hardware decreases, and the contraction of risk appetite under high inflation pressure amplifies the drawdown of targets lacking delivery support. This drives long positions to concentrate on companies with certainty delivery capabilities, prompting heavy institutions to adjust their holdings.
The trigger condition for the downside scenario is $AAOI At the next evaluation node, delivery milestones are confirmed and not met, resulting in massive order transfers. The variable to watch is the change in the weight of the ETF holdings in heavy positions; if the weight continues to decline, position departures will dominate the market; The failure signal is the official release of actual shipments that exceed expectations and can be verified.
The trigger for the upward scenario is that AI infrastructure demand accelerates beyond expectations, and the overall industry supply gap expands to an irreplaceable level. The variable to watch is whether major customers relax delivery assessments due to tight capacity; if supply chain concentration is forced to increase, short covering will drive a rebound; The failure signal is the rapid release of peer capacity and full coverage of the gap.
The criteria for judgment failure are that the overall industry supply bottleneck is eliminated much slower than market expectations, or that major clients' rigid demands for supply chain diversification force forced order retention.
The most important variable to watch over the next 7 days is the weight flow of $AAOI in the relevant holdings structure, as well as the supply chain's statements about delivering on key milestones.
#西联稳定币卡落地, Visa payment scenarios advance further #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, regulatory window shifts back #存储股财报后续跌—is the AI memory bull market still stable?📊 $NEAR Contract Liquidation Express (August 11)
According to liquidation data, this bull market was frantically rubbed by the bull market...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $13,600 $13,600 $0
4 hours $34,100 $31,600 $2,523.53
12 hours: $73,300, $37,800, $35,500
24 hours: $97,200, $59,700, $37,600
From $NEAR liquidation data, 1-hour long liquidations crushed shorts, with zero bears, and the short selling was fierce right from the start; The 4-hour bullish advantage persisted, with bulls at 12.5 times the shorts, and the selling of long positions fully exploded; The 12-hour bullish advantage narrowed sharply, dropping to 1.06 times, with the balance between long and bear positions; 24-hour long liquidations surged to $59,700, 1.58 times the bears' price. Dog Zhuang completed a short- and medium-term long sell-off and a long-term renewed push on NEAR—short-cycle long sellers were targeted and destroyed, long-term long chasers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $97,000. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back and cut off.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? $BTC Liquidity was so poor over the weekend that many people said the fundamentals had changed and a bull market was coming—I really couldn't agree at all.
Look at the data: the BTC–USDT weekend bid-ask spread widened from the usual 0.012% to 0.028%, doubling.
Overall trading volume has dropped by 20–40% compared to the weekday, and liquidity in that 21:00 UTC tier can drop another 42%.
Why? ETF closing + market makers withdrawing, the order book is as thin as paper, and even a slightly larger order can trigger a false breakout.
Old Cat also muttered this morning that Sunday's trading volume was "very small," unable to push forward, and the doji was dragging its feet.
Without liquidity, prices just float.
Rising is a staple, a drop is a staple—what are you talking about?
Let's wait until the US stock market opens on Monday and volume returns. Right now, it's a stagnant pool + self-hyped game.$SPCX
Why do people say that $SPCX lifting the ban means a crash? They're either stupid or foolish
Since mid-July, I've repeatedly stated in the group that the $SPCX will break below issue price, and in the future it will definitely reach double digits.
At the time, many people didn't believe it.
I really don't get it. No short selling above 200, no short selling at 180, no short selling at 150, no short selling at 135 yuan. Now that it's 110, what does 'short selling' mean?
Today, a group member told me that their $SPCX was exposed.
I first gave him a scolding in the group chat.
Because if your trading logic is only this: unlock = shareholders sell = stock price crashes
Then you're trading elementary school math, don't play around
On the 6th, SpaceX's first round of large-scale restricted shares was officially lifted, with about 911.5 million shares eligible for sale, and the number of tradable shares significantly increased.
According to the simplest supply and demand logic, this is bearish.
But the market already knew.
Since July, SPCX has been continuously trading the full set of risks of "earnings report + unlocking + high valuation + capital expenditure."
Slashing from above 200 all the way to around 110 is itself a process of expecting early realization.
On the 6th, the day the stock was officially lifted, the SPCX not only didn't crash but actually rose; then on Friday, it surged about 16%, finally closing at 133.11, with an intraday high of 134.45, almost returning to the IPO price of 135.
The greatest impact of negative news often occurs before it materializes.
Why?
Because unlocking is never the same as selling.
900 million shares "can be sold" and 900 million shares "for sale" are two different concepts.
Whether employees, founding shareholders, and early-stage investment institutions will immediately dump liquidity depends on costs, taxes, asset allocation, long-term valuation assessments, and their own funding needs.
What changes the unlocking is the potential supply, not the instantaneous supply.
And when everyone in the market knows in advance that a huge number of stocks will be unlocked, there's an even more interesting question: what would happen if everyone waited for the unlocking day to short the stock?
The answer is—the short sellers themselves become the fuel for the market.
Before the unlock, SPCX had already fallen nearly half from its peak, with a large amount of pessimistic expectations entering the price early.
If the actual selling pressure after implementation falls short of the market's most pessimistic expectations, the stock price only needs to stop falling, and bears will start to suffer.
115、120、125……
Some short positions cut losses, while some leveraged positions were forced to close out
And the action of closing short positions is essentially buying back
Thus, the market experiences a very counterintuitive and interesting cycle:
Expectations for the lifting of the lock-up have plummeted
→ Heavily shorted in advance
→ The actual selling pressure after unlocking is not as terrifying as imagined
→ Stock price rises instead of falling
→ Short covering
→ Stock prices continue to rise
→ More bears are forced to cover the gap
It's not that all the rally in the past two days came from short squeezes, because there isn't enough real-time position data to prove it.
But from a trading structure perspective, this is a very common reflexivity after the lockdown is lifted.
So at that time, I went long at 112 and closed at 122.
Later, it continued to rise to over 130, but I didn't get any of it.
It's okay.
Fish heads and tails were never what I wanted to eat
As long as you can be more certain about eating the fish, that's enough
This rebound did not overturn my long-term bearish view of its current valuation
Short-term trading and long-term valuation are two different timelines.
I think around 110, due to over-trading expectations of the lock-up, it's worth going long in the short term.
At the same time, I can also say that 130, 135, or even higher does not mean SPCX is cheaper.
These two statements are completely uncontradictory.
Even if this round breaks through 135 again, I still won't change my previous core judgment: a great company doesn't mean every price is a great buying opportunity.
So I still follow my own pace, investing in one share every day or two, planning to hold for five to ten years.
At the same time, I still maintain the judgment that double-digit repricing opportunities will occur in the future.
Sounds contradictory, right?
In reality, this is not the case
Because one reason is that I am willing to hold SpaceX for the sake of time
Another is that I am unwilling to buy SpaceX at any price
Don't reflexively short just because the lock-up is lifted
Don't watch a sharp rise and then reflexively chase the long side
Price trading is never about "what happened."
Price trading is—how far apart is what happened from what the market originally expected?
The first round of SPCX unlocking is itself negative.
But a negative news that everyone knows in advance, panics about, and trades in advance will actually become a phased negative news when it actually materializes.
That's why I'm bearish on SPCX, and I dare to go long at 112.
Now that it has risen back to 130, I still think it will go to double digits
Trading is never about taking sides
Trading is pricing
We walked and explored the area
Time will tell🌍 THE MIDDLE EAST JUST TOOK A MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL STEP
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have reportedly signed the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement,” with discussions already pointing toward expanding membership.
Turkey’s foreign minister has indicated that Egypt could potentially join in the next phase, which would significantly broaden the bloc’s reach.
If the framework develops as described, the Middle East could be moving toward a more independent regional security structure — one that relies less heavily on the United States.
That could have meaningful long-term market implications:
🛡️ Greater regional autonomy
🌍 More complex great-power competition
🛢️ Higher sensitivity around energy markets
🥇 Potentially stronger safe-haven demand for gold
The key point for markets:
Geopolitical risk is evolving, and capital tends to follow the new risk map.
Gold and energy may benefit more directly from this shift than crypto.
The narrative is changing.
Don’t use yesterday’s map to navigate tomorrow’s market. 👀 If you only look at the price, $CORE already presents a very misleading candlestick. As of around August 9, 2026, the price of $CORE is about $0.0197, with a circulating market cap of approximately $24.6 million, circulating supply around 1.247 billion tokens, and a maximum supply of 2.1 billion tokens. Compared to its historical peak, $CORE has retraced over 99%. At this point, most people naturally form two completely opposite judgments: One believes that after a 99% drop, with a market cap of just over $20 million, it has "fallen as far as it can." The other believes that a coin that can drop 99% simply means the market has abandoned it. But both of these judgments are actually meaningless. A large price drop has never been evidence of undervaluation; likewise, a severe price drop does not necessarily mean the project is dead. The real question to answer when evaluating $CORE now is: Can Core DAO convert the benefits, transactions, financial services, and institutional demand generated by the Bitcoin ecosystem into sustained $CORE buying pressure? If the answer is yes, then the current circulating market cap of less than $25 million indeed has huge potential for revaluation. If the answer is no, then even if $CORE drops another 90%, it still cannot be considered cheap. This is the core of analyzing $CORE. First, clarify: Core is not trying to be just another ordinary L1. Many people understand Core as a chain similar to $ETH, $SOL, $AVAX 📊 $BCH Contract Overload Express (August 11)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but medium- and long-term bears have directly collapsed...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $2,881.07 $2,831.17 $49.90
4 hours $15,800 $12,400 $3,464.43
12 hours: $30,700, $12,400, $18,400
24 hours: $33,900, $13,000, $21,000
From $BCH liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts. 1-hour bulls were 56.7 times short, and 4-hour short positions were about 3.6 times. The long sell-off rally unfolded fiercely in the short cycle; the 12-hour direction reversed, with short liquidations overtaking long positions at about 1.48 times, triggering short squeezes; the 24-hour short advantage further expanded to about 1.62 times. Dog Farm completed a fierce turnaround from selling long to short squeezes on BCH—short-term long sellers were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $30,000. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Why hasn't the US stock market surged in sync with the crypto world? Where is the real reason?
Many people see the continued strength of US stocks and wonder: why hasn't the crypto world replicated this immediately?
Actually, the answer isn't complicated; many people are used to judging the present by the patterns of the past market.
The market today is no longer simply a liquidity-driven era, but has entered a tiered asset phase.
US stocks, especially in AI, are experiencing the realization of industry value.
Revenue growth, technology implementation, and expanding market demand are all factors driving the market's development.
Institutional funds see long-term industry trends, so their allocation logic is more stable.
The crypto world is different.
The crypto market reflects more of future expectations.
Many projects and ecosystems need time to develop, and the market must wait for new catalysts to emerge.
Therefore, the crypto world will not have to act immediately just because US stocks rise.
The biggest misconception among retail investors is the belief that different assets must be synchronized.
In fact, a truly mature market allows different assets to follow different cycles.
US stocks are currently a strong industry trend, supported by real growth.
The crypto world is gathering momentum, waiting for the market to reprice.
Divergence is not about division, but about opportunities after differentiation.
When the market no longer simply follows, investors find it easier to find their own cyclical opportunities.Why does the $SPCX US stock market get stronger while the $BTC crypto circle is quieter? What changes is brewing in the market?
Many people have recently been watching the market with a question: the AI sector in US stocks continues to strengthen, and tech companies keep expressing growth expectations, but the crypto world hasn't fully replicated this trend.
Many retail investors' first reaction is: Is the capital leaning toward US stocks?
In fact, this is the biggest misconception in the market.
It's not just about "whoever rises gets stronger" now, but different assets are entering different cycles.
Currently, the US stock market is following an industry realization logic. AI is moving from concept to application, with corporate profitability, business models, and supply chain orders being gradually validated. Institutional funds are focused on profit growth over the next few years, so they are willing to continue investing around core technology directions.
But the crypto world follows a different logic.
The crypto market trades more about future expectations, including ecosystem development, cycle changes, market sentiment, and new catalysts. Often, the market doesn't start after everyone agrees, but reacts early as market expectations gradually take shape.
So what we're seeing now isn't who is influenced by whom, but rather that both markets are following their own paths.
US stocks are industry-driven bulls, driven by real earnings; crypto is expected bull markets and need to wait for new market consensus to form.
The divergence between stock and coin currencies actually represents a more mature market, with assets starting to be priced according to their own value systems.
What truly deserves attention in the future is not who rises more each day, but who is approaching their key cycle. 📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Express (August 11)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but medium- and long-term bears have directly collapsed...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $101,600, $88,200, $13,300
4 hours: $383,600 $361,700 $21,900
12 hours: $3.7845 million, $479,700, $3.3048 million
24 hours: $8.1893 million, $504,500, $7.6848 million
From $SOL liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts. 1-hour bulls were 6.6 times the shorts, and the 4-hour ratio was about 16.5 times. The long selling trend in the short cycle unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity; the 12-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing the bulls, who were 6.9 times the bulls, leading to a full-blown short squeeze; the 24-hour short advantage further expanded to about 15.2 times. Dog Farm completed a fierce turnaround from selling long to short squeeze on SOL—short-term long sellers were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $8.18 million. Short sellers are bleeding like a river, and the short squeeze is unstoppable. Everyone controls their positions and doesn't get ripped back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 🔍 If you hold onto a "good coin" for a whole month, it won't budge at all—and $ADA in just one week, it has pulled up nearly 20%. This is the harsh reality of the current market: $BTC hovers around $64k, still down more than 48% from its all-time high, but funds have never stopped flowing, just being extremely picky.
📊 Small-cap memes ($PONS, $WKC, $HEI) are stirring, while the privacy sector is quietly strengthening—$ZEC rose 12% for the week, followed by $XMR; Meanwhile, $ONDO and the entire RWA sector fell 10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, and $PEPE are locked in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
🧠 The market splits into two interpretations: one sees this as smart money rotation, with coins with independent narratives still harvesting; The other warns that the $ZEC and $ADA movements are just short-term switches in a shrinking volume market—$BTC unless it breaks previous highs, cryptocurrencies won't see a real trend.
💡 My observation is: price is just the surface; capital flow is the trump card. Money is hiding in the privacy sector, and even gold tokens rose 7% $XAUT week—this is risk aversion, not the horn of a full-blown bull market. Altseason hasn't ended; instead, it has been broken into a pulse market driven by sector rotation.
$BTCIn-depth analysis of whether suspected miner addresses should sell 6,494 BTC (about $421 million) on exchanges:
* The market sees an average daily inflow of about 325 BTC. For exchanges with daily trading volumes often reaching tens of billions of dollars, this selling pressure in the "digest" of deep liquidity is just a hearty lunch, not enough to cause intestinal blockage.
* Absorption effect: This slow-cooked deposit over low heat means the seller doesn't want to trigger slippage and lose 800 points of their own. The market is currently in a typical "stepped bearish decline" defensive state, with bulls needing to build a solid buying wall in the $64,000 - $66,000 range to hedge against this ongoing spot outflow.
The psychological torment of the Sword of Damocles
*For retail investors, every trade by the whale is a "heartbeat." Even if selling pressure can be absorbed, the psychological implication of "miners fleeing" will cause leveraged players to close positions early to hedge risks.
* The most frustrating part of this sustained selling pressure is that it wipes out all rebound momentum. Whenever BTC attempts to break upward, this spot dump from the exchange's hot wallet acts like a fire extinguisher, precisely extinguishing the flames of the rebound.
* If the address is indeed a miner, it usually indicates that the current coin price is close to the shutdown price of some older models. They are using the recent liquidity rebound to realign assets or stockpile ammunition for hardware upgrades.
* Everyone is watching these 6,494 tokens 📊 $SUI contract liquidation express (August 11)
According to liquidation data, short-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears have just collapsed...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $25,900 $22,200 $3,708.87
4 hours: $84,000 $80,300 $3,713.85
12 hours: $275,800, $114,700, $161,000
24 hours: $434,000, $122,000, $312,000
From $SUI liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts. 1-hour bulls were 6 times longer than shorts, and 4-hour liquidations were about 21.6 times. The long selling rally unfolded with explosive intensity in the short cycle; the 12-hour direction reversed, with short liquidations overtaking the bulls at about 1.4 times, triggering short squeezes; the 24-hour short advantage further expanded to about 2.56 times. Dog Zhuang completed a fierce turnaround from selling long to short squeeze on SUI—short-term long sellers were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $430,000. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? $ONDO Currently, this coin is embroiled in internal legal battles and a large amount of coins that have not yet been unlocked, possibly due to significant selling pressure. Users holding the coin only have voting governance rights, causing the price to fall repeatedly
If things change in the future, there is a chance to break previous highs; If not, it may continue to test the bottom 🥲
Ondo Finance (ONDO) is one of the leading projects in the current RWA (Real World Assets) sector in the cryptocurrency market. Unlike public chain tokens such as BTC, ETH, or SOL, ONDO's core value is highly tied to the scale and speed at which traditional finance (US Treasuries, US stocks, and Treasury yields) enter the blockchain.
1. Market Status and Price Trend Analysis
Price and Market Cap Status: Currently, ONDO's price is consolidating within the $0.36–$0.39 range, with a total market cap of about $1.7–1.9 billion, ranking among the top cryptocurrencies worldwide.
Token Structure and Token Unlocks: ONDO has a total supply of 10 billion, with a current circulating supply of about 4.87 billion (about 49% of the total). Since more than half of the tokens have not yet been fully unlocked and released, there is a certain degree of unlocked selling pressure that the market needs to digest.
Technical Features: ONDO is a high-beta institutional token. When market risk appetite rises (risk-on) or the Fed's rate cut expectations are established, its resilience is usually stronger than the broader market; However, when the market deleverages, volatility and pullbacks tend to be amplified.
2. Four key highlights and risks to watch for
1. The Absolute Leader in the RWA Sector (U.S. Treasuries and Tokenized US Stocks)
Ondo's flagship products include yield-based tokenized USDY and institutional-grade USDG. Additionally, its launched Ondo Stocks / Ondo Global Markets have successfully brought traditional US stocks and ETFs on-chain, establishing partnerships or liquidity integration relationships with traditional financial giants such as BlackRock and Mirae Asset.
2. Organizational background and senior executive lineup
The Ondo team possesses a strong Wall Street DNA (founders and executives mostly come from top institutions like Goldman Sachs and Invesco), giving Ondo a barrier in compliance, integration with traditional financial resources, and institutional adoption, far surpassing other decentralized projects.
3. The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy directly affects yields
Ondo's Treasury product yields are closely linked to the Federal Reserve's Funds Rate.
High interest rate environment: On-chain capital has strong demand for risk-free US Treasury yields (4%~5%+), attracting a large amount of DeFi capital locked (TVL increases).
Rate-cutting cycle: When the Fed enters a major rate-cutting cycle, falling Treasury yields may cause some high-yield seekers to shift to other DeFi protocols. It is important to observe whether their tokenized stocks and derivatives can meet yield demand.
4. Regulatory Compliance Risk (Securities & Compliance)
Because ONDO's products directly collide with traditional securities (US Treasuries and US stocks), its business development heavily depends on financial regulatory policies of various countries (such as the US SEC and the European MiCA Act). Sudden changes in regulatory regulations will be the biggest black swan factor affecting its long-term operations and token value.
3. Strategic Recommendations for Operations
Medium- to long-term investors (spot): If you recognize that 'Traditional Financial Assets On-chain (RWA)' is the core trend for the crypto market over the next 3–5 years, ONDO is the top choice for allocation to this sector. It is recommended to build positions on dips around $0.30–$0.35, and to monitor TVL (Total Locked Value) and token unlock schedules over the long term.
Short-term traders: Currently, there is local range resistance near $0.38–$0.40. If the market pulls back, watch the support strength at $0.30–$0.32; Right-side traders should wait for volume to break through the short-term downtrend before following the trend. 💡 You bought the right coin, held it for a month, and it didn't budge at all—while $ADA jumped nearly 20% in a week. This is the current market: $BTC hovers around $64k, still 48% below the previous high, but funds never stop flowing—they're just extremely picky.
On one side, small-cap memes like $PONS, $WKC, and $HEI remain hot; on the other, $ZEC (up 12% this week) and $XMR are quietly strengthening; In contrast, $ONDO and RWA sectors fell 10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, and $PEPE fluctuated in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Two interpretations: one believes this is smart money circulating, with altcoins with built-in narratives still gaining local advantage; The other warns that the $ZEC and $ADA movements are merely short-term shifts in a low-liquidity market—$BTC don't break previous highs, it's hard for altcoins to sustain widespread gains.
What I care more about is funds flowing into defensive sectors—privacy coins and even the gold token $XAUT rose 7% for the week, which is driven by risk-averse sentiment rather than the altcoin season. The altcoin season isn't over; it's just being split into sector rotation cycles. People who choose the right track are eating meat; those holding onto so-called "good coins" waiting for a big bull market may have to wait a long time.
Those who can't understand the direction of the funds are destined to be washed out by the volatility.
#加密市场 #BTC
#CryptoWith massive cash reserves piling up, billion-yuan buying orders have precisely fallen into leading tech stocks, keeping the market tense between dull defense and the tension of targeted attacks.
In the second quarter, net profit of $12.98 billion was converted into $365.5 billion in cash, clearly maximizing the depth of the defensive posture.
While maintaining a massive defensive pool, $10 billion was directly invested in $GOOGL, indicating institutions are leaning toward top-quality assets.
In an environment where inflation expectations and risk appetite are in conflict, the combination of high cash flow defense and the offensive of leading tech stocks has redefined the current boundaries of capital safe-haven assets.
If funds continue to concentrate on tech giants with certain profitability, valuation centers will be supported by solid buying; Conversely, once a technical breakthrough lags weakens cash flow expectations, the support effect of concentrated buying will quickly fail.
If high-level fluctuations in US stocks trigger a concentrated take-off of profit-taking, high-valuation stocks may face a temporary liquidity squeeze; But as long as huge cash reserves do not suffer significant irrational consumption, the market's downside space will be marginally constrained.
When the overall valuation premium of the market collides head-on with macroeconomic recession risks, if the premium effect of institutional holdings is masked by indiscriminate selling pressure, the current logic of concentrated allocation will be disproven.
The most noteworthy variable to watch over the next seven days is the change in institutional net buying volume during the consolidation phase of leading tech sectors at high levels.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up rebound, what is SpaceX's outlook? #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效, the boundaries between transactions and payments are clear📊 $SUI contract liquidation express (August 11)
According to liquidation data, short-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears have just collapsed...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $25,900 $22,200 $3,708.87
4 hours: $84,000 $80,300 $3,713.85
12 hours: $275,800, $114,700, $161,000
24 hours: $434,000, $122,000, $312,000
From $SUI liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts. 1-hour bulls were 6 times longer than shorts, and 4-hour liquidations were about 21.6 times. The long selling rally unfolded with explosive intensity in the short cycle; the 12-hour direction reversed, with short liquidations overtaking the bulls at about 1.4 times, triggering short squeezes; the 24-hour short advantage further expanded to about 2.56 times. Dog Zhuang completed a fierce turnaround from selling long to short squeeze on SUI—short-term long sellers were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $430,000. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Here’s the uncomfortable truth about this $BTC and altcoin cycle:
The biggest problem isn’t the drop. It’s the lack of new stories.
Look at U.S. stocks.
AI keeps creating new opportunities.
Optical communications keeps producing fresh narratives.
Commercial aerospace is generating another wave of excitement.
Gold has its own powerful story: de-dollarization + central-bank accumulation.
Markets chase narratives because narratives attract capital.
But what’s the new story for crypto?
The ETF narrative has largely been priced in.
The halving narrative is old news.
And exchange liquidity is becoming increasingly selective and thin.
Without a fresh catalyst, there’s little reason for meaningful new capital to enter.
And that may be the real reason crypto is stuck moving sideways.
Instead of constantly getting chopped up inside the range, preserve your capital and wait for the next genuine narrative to emerge.
The next big story could be what finally brings the next wave of liquidity.
Until then, stay patient. 👀
Let’s see how it plays out.
$BTC 📊 BlackRock CEO Larry Fink just stated on CNBC:
"Bitcoin's leverage has been cleared, and stability is improving."
"I am bullish on the current crypto market."
🏦 The assets he manages total $15.3 trillion
My judgment:
This person, who in 2017 still called Bitcoin a "money laundering index," now openly calls for bullishness—the direction has changed, but the position hasn't changed. He doesn't need retail investors' money; he needs the market to understand BlackRock's layout direction.
📌 Leverage clearing + institutional entry = structural changes, not short-term sentiment.Last Friday, July's nonfarm payroll data was far below expectations: unexpectedly negative job growth, combined with downward revisions from the previous two months, clear signals of a cooling labor force, and the market quickly lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The S&P 500 hit a new record high, and the Nasdaq surged over 5% for the week.
However, the market has already shown clear divergence: core AI technologies are blocating to strengthen, while the storage sector is weakening independently. Investors worry that "economic weakness will suppress end-user storage demand," creating a dual landscape of indices and cyclical sectors.
The main focus this week is not Monday, but the July CPI inflation data set to be released on Wednesday. Monday is more about the digestion of nonfarm payroll sentiment + a warm-up window for volatility.
2. Three scenario simulations for Monday's market
🔹 Scenario 1 | High opening with volatility (probability is high)
Nonfarm payroll benefits continue, with moderate inflation in capital competition, and leading AI and computing power sectors maintaining resilience; The storage sector is under short-term pressure and recovering, with overall high-level fluctuations and converging volatility, awaiting Wednesday's CPI.
🔹 Scenario 2 | High opening followed by pullback
No new positive news over the weekend, with profit-taking at high levels fleeing and indices surging and retreating; Storage and cyclical stocks remain weak, with funds preemptively avoiding inflation exceeding expectations.
🔹 Scenario 3 | Sudden geopolitical disturbances open lower
News related to the Middle East is fermenting, risk aversion is rising, growth stocks are under pressure, and gold and US Treasuries have benefited.
3. Key sectors to watch
✅ AI computing power leader: Market theme, interest rate cut expectations benefit, the strongest short-term resilient sector
⚠️ Memory Chips (SNDK/WDC/MU): Sector logic diverges, nonfarm payrolls are positive, but recession expectations suppress demand, so the rebound is a recovery and hard to reverse directly
✅ Gold-related stocks: Nonfarm payrolls are driving rate cut expectations, while moderate inflation remains strong
⚠️ Defensive utility and consumption: A capital hedge option in volatile markets
4. Monday Practical Approach
Monday is a wait-and-see buffer period before CPI, not suitable for heavy positions to chase highs;
Short-term: Do not chase at index highs; prioritize buying the main core on dips; be cautious with bottom-fishing in the storage sector;
Medium-term: Patiently wait for Wednesday's CPI release; inflation is the final benchmark for Federal Reserve policy.🚨 $BTC ABOVE $65,309 DOESN’T PROVE A SHORT SQUEEZE
Don’t confuse a move above $65,309 with confirmation of forced buying.
Hyperliquid liquidations are triggered by the mark price, not the last traded price.
So stay out until:
• The live mark price clears the verified liquidation level
• "clearinghouseState" confirms the short position is actually shrinking
• Forced buying is clearly taking place
And if the squeeze is confirmed, trade regular $BTC — not $HYPE .
$HYPE has no direct claim on the forced BTC buying.
No position shrink = no squeeze confirmation = no trade.
Stay patient. Verify the data first. 👀$SPCX
The deadlock of traditional telecom operators is that under the base station fiber model, construction and maintenance costs lack economies of scale, especially in non-hotspot areas, where user expansion is even less economical.
That's why major traditional American operators claim "Starlink Mobile poses no threat," while unprecedentedly starting alliances and considering their own constellations.
As industry insiders, they understand best how much room there is for optimizing their balance sheets using base station + direct phone connection in non-hotspot areas. This is why I am not optimistic about these traditional carrier alliances, because their management teams are basically all professional managers. Faster and more effective balance sheet optimization is a very positive incentive for them. Whoever can reach cooperation and optimize their balance sheet faster is not only a positive incentive for the company itself but also for management itself.
So we can observe who will be the "Judas" of this fragile alliance after V3 Starlink and its V3-based modified direct connection Starlink are put into use.Gold has once again broken through $4,300, drawing market attention.
In the past, gold gains usually signaled heightened risk aversion, but this time the logic behind this is more complex. On one hand, global economic uncertainty persists, and funds are seeking safe assets; On the other hand, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and falling real interest rates also support gold's rise.
It is worth noting that gold's continuous record highs are not simply a reflection of market panic, but a repricing of the monetary environment for the next decade.
As investors begin to lose confidence in dollar assets, scarce assets like gold and BTC will receive more attention.
However, the biggest risk for high-level assets is overly strong consensus expectations. When everyone in the market believes in a rise, short-term volatility tends to intensify.
Whether gold can continue to strengthen in the future still depends on the Fed's policy path and changes in global liquidity.
For investors, understanding why funds are flowing in is more important than chasing the rally.
#黄金升破4300美元, are the funds at risk of interest rate cuts or safe havens? What happened when OKB suddenly surged? $OKB
OKB recently jumped from the $85–$86 platform to around $95, rising about 5%–6% in 24 hours, with gains exceeding 10% over the past 7 days.
This time, there was no announcement of any new massive destruction.
I lean more toward the idea that news about the X Layer ecosystem ignites the momentum, OKB's low circulation structure amplifies gains, and after breaking $90, it attracts contract funds to chase the rally.
The most direct catalyst was Circle's official integration of native USDC and CCTP into X Layer on August 7.
Previously, X Layer mainly used the cross-chain version of USDC, but now it can directly use native USDC issued by Circle and redeemed 1:1, and transfer funds via CCTP with 25 other chains.
For OKB, this means not that "launching USDC will immediately generate massive revenue," but rather that X Layer's stablecoin liquidity, institutional settlement, and DeFi infrastructure will become more complete.
Recently, on-chain data has indeed improved:
✔ X Layer TVL reached approximately $117 million, a 24-hour increase of 2.7%
✔ Stablecoin size reaches $2.078 billion, a 7-day increase of 2.67%
✔ DEX trading volume over the past 7 days was about $548 million, up 10.76%
✔ The daily number of transactions is about 1.44 million
OKB is X Layer's only gas asset, and future Exchange OS deployments will require staking OKB. This market transaction is actually anticipating "X Layer moving from storytelling to real expansion."
The second reason is the chip structure.
The total supply of OKB has been fixed at 21 million tokens, with a current market capitalization of about $2 billion. The 24-hour trading volume has increased by about 30%, but overall liquidity is still not very deep.
For these low-supply, highly traded coins, once there is sustained spot buying, price elasticity is significantly higher than that of BTC or ETH.
Futures are also amplifying the market.
OKB's open interest increased by about 18%–20% in 24 hours, and after breaking through $90, some short positions did emerge.
But this cannot be fully defined as a short squeeze.
Because as prices rise, OI is also increasing, indicating that besides short covering, many new bulls are chasing in. If it's pure short squeezing, you usually see price increases and lower OI.
The good news is that the funding rate is currently only about 0.0025%–0.01%, not yet in extreme bull crowding.
So my judgment is:
This rally is driven by genuine ecosystem catalysts and amplified funds after breaking $90, not entirely unreasoned "manipulative manipulation."
However, native USDC has just launched, and how much new capital it can actually bring to X Layer still requires further data verification. Currently, the price is rising faster than the growth rate of on-chain fundamentals.
Next, let's focus on three key positions:
✔ Only by holding above $95 can you continue to challenge $100
✔ If it does not break below $90 on a pullback, it indicates that the breakout structure remains valid
✔ It fell back below $90, possibly retesting the $85–$86 level
This is not a violent market where supply is cut again.
It seems the market is finally starting to re-price the progress of the X Layer ecosystem.Today, $HMSTR saw a significant surge. I failed to hold onto my previous long position, which caused me to miss this big rally. I analyzed the data, and based on the current situation, it should continue to rise. But I don't plan to chase it because after analyzing its previous candlesticks, I found that before a real rally, there was a period of sideways movement or pullback. So I plan to wait a bit longer. At this time, chasing more knockoffs is still quite dangerous. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its recent data. We can see that there are two key time nodes in the chart. The first time point was 4 a.m. today. At that time, its contract open interest was at a low point, while the long-short ratio was at a high point. This indicates that before 4 a.m., a group of bears were exiting, but after 4 a.m., a new batch of bears emerged. This actually corresponds to the price at that time. At 4 o'clock, $HMSTR experienced a small drop. The second time point is 8:30 today. At that time, its long-short ratio was at a low point, while its open interest was at a high point. The whole process is actually reversed: before this, there were shorts adding positions, then shorts reducing positions. However, the price at that time did not fluctuate much, indicating that bears were not very willing to short at this level. Moreover, its long-short ratio and open interest just rose in tandem, indicating that currently it is still dominated by those who are long. Let's take another look at its candlestick chart. $SKHYNIX The $71 billion return plan failed to trigger bullish sentiment as expected. The core contradiction is that the $28.4 billion buyback only corresponds to 2% of shares and is fully offset by ADR dilution, with funds leaning more toward Micron's highly certain 100% free cash flow allocation.
Market data shows that against the backdrop of macro inflation expectations volatility and liquidity suppression, institutional capital's risk appetite for the storage sector is shifting toward cash flow return efficiency. $SKHYNIX announced a 40 trillion won (about $28.4 billion) share buyback, accounting for only about 2% of the market value and just enough to offset equity dilution from ADR listings, resulting in insufficient momentum for long positions to increase positions.
The current drivers are: shareholder return cash flow delivery ratio is greater than HBM technology premium. Micron $MU committed to 100% of free cash flow for buybacks (expected to buy back 40% of shares), SanDisk $SNDK contributed $15.5 billion, representing 8.7% of market capitalization, directly raising the security margin requirements for storage assets on the trading table.
The trigger for the downside scenario is: if inflation data remains high and suppresses tech stock valuations, capital will accelerate outflows from low-buyback efficiency assets. In this scenario, $SKHYNIX's 2% buyback cannot provide a downside buffer, and positions will shift to Micron or SanDisk, which have higher free cash flow buyback ratios, squeezing their valuation premium.
The trigger conditions for the upside scenario are: AI hardware bottlenecks causing HBM demand and price premiums to exceed expectations, supporting a significant increase in free cash flow. When cash flow increases force management to announce additional buybacks beyond the $71 billion total return, it will trigger short positions and trend capital covering.
The current cautiously bearish judgment signals the failure of this judgment: management clearly changes the buyback terms, raising the $28.4 billion buyback quota to over 50% of free cash flow, or significantly delaying ADR dilution progress. Any decision to reduce the equity dilution ratio or increase the payout ratio per share will directly alter the assessment of the asset's financial attractiveness.
In the next 7 days, the focus will be on changes in HBM's actual spot premium, the evolution of position concentration between Micron and SanDisk, and the transmission path of macro inflation data to semiconductor risk appetite.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, the price rebounds—what is SpaceX's outlook on going forward? #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC see new growth? #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?ASTER | Unlock on 8/17, unresolved conflict among three calibers
ASTER expects the unlock on 8/17, with three sets currently available: Certik says unlock accounts for about 6.099% of circulating supply, CoinLaunch says about 164.7 million tokens (about $111 million), Tokenomist says about 46.95 million—a several-fold difference, and none are officially announced or confirmed on-chain. The proportion of tokens in circulation varies significantly depending on the standard, with recipients and categories unclear. This conflict has been recorded for several consecutive days, and no new official information has been added in this window. Investment impact depends on the final actual amount; if the maximum caliber is used, unlocking pressure is significant. Verification actions: Check official token contracts and unlock addresses, wait for official announcements, and remain pending verification until on-chain evidence is obtained.
HYPE | Monthly team unlock continues, selling behavior has already appeared in this window
HYPE's monthly unlock mechanism will continue until 2027, targeting core contributors. On 8/7, 433,000 tokens (about $24.25 million) redemptioned in this window have been sold through market makers and exchanges, accounting for about 0.19% of circulation. In the next 30 days, monthly team unlocking is expected, but historical claim rates are low (significant difference between nominal and actual claims). Investment impact is a coexistence of supply pressure and buyback hedges; validation actions track redemption and selling rhythms, as well as the proportion and destination of the next unlock.TC|Spot ETFs saw weekly net inflows of about $1 billion
On 8/9, Gelonghui cited Cointelegraph: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1 billion in net inflows this week (8/4 to 8/8), marking the strongest weekly inflow since April and the third best since October last year; Among them, IBIT increased its holdings by about 7,320 BTC in a single week, valued at approximately $478.5 million. This news differs from the 754.69 million yuan recorded in the 8/8 scan. Another Sina article reported that in the first week of August, crypto ETFs (BTC and ETH combined) had a net inflow of $280 million, ending the previous 8-week cycle of about $7 billion in losses. The three criteria differ significantly, possibly due to differences in statistical intervals and settlement timings, and should be accepted after reconciliation.
The impact on investment assumptions is on the capital side. If the $1 billion threshold holds, institutional demand recovery will be stronger than the previous day's assessment, directly strengthening the core question of whether institutions and long-term holding demand can absorb new supply.
The strongest negative explanation is that analysts generally view current inflows as "sentiment repair" rather than a trend reversal. Whether net inflows can be maintained for more than three consecutive days and whether funds will withdraw after nonfarm payrolls are implemented remains a key point to watch; Bloomberg ETF analyst Balchunas also cautioned that the speculation about "self-custody conversion to ETF" after the Coldcard security incident is only correlation, not causationBTC | BIP-110 mandatory signal window opens today, miner support rate only 2.64%
The BIP-110 mandatory signaling window opened at block 961632 (expected today, 8/9). On-chain data shows miner support at about 2.64%, an improvement from less than 1% a few weeks ago. However, large mining pools such as Foundry, Antpool, and ViaBTC have yet to send signals. Foundry uses a customer voting model and only responds when the Yes vote after hash power weight exceeds 51%. This proposal targets data-intensive fields such as Ordinals inscriptions and large OP_RETURN loads.
The impact on investment assumptions lies in the technical risk dimension. If nodes reject blocks that have not been signaled after the window opens, there is a tail risk of temporary chain divergence, which may trigger exchange policy responses and short-term price disturbances.
The strongest negative explanation is that the low support rate of 2.64% precisely means that soft forks are unlikely to reach the activation threshold in the short term, and the actual risk of divergence is limited; The support rate rose from <1% to 2.64%, indicating that proposals are beginning to gain some traction.$BTC $ETH $SOL #财报观察员: After the ban was lifted, prices rebounded—what is SpaceX's outlook on the future? #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has oil price risk cooled down? $182 million worth of BTC dumped on Binance! Miners have sold $421 million in the past 20 days—this signals retail investors shouldn't pretend not to notice
Beneath the surface of the crypto world recently, a huge bubble is emerging that many people have overlooked.
When the on-chain data monitored by Ember was released on August 9, several veteran miners around me who had been hoarding BTC couldn't sit still: an anonymous miner account had deposited 2,802 BTC to Binance in just 48 hours, which is a full $182 million at current market prices. Stretching the timeline even more shocking: in the past 20 days, this address has transferred 64,940 BTC to exchanges, worth over $421 million, with an average holding price of only about $64,798.
Many people's first reaction is, "Miners cashing out and running away"? Don't rush to conclusions; let's first understand the simplest logic: miners are the most "cost-savvy" group in the crypto world. Unlike speculators who rely on news to speculate on coins, every BTC is earned by machines running electricity bills 24/7 and paying mining farm rent. Their selling has never been random—the last time there was a 20-day consecutive 20-day scale of miners transferring coins to exchanges was last year, when BTC hit the $70,000 mark. Longtime fans remember that a deep pullback washed away at least 30% of retail investors chasing the highs.
This point is even more complicated: not long ago, BTC hit the 70,000 mark and then traded sideways, with bulls and bears fighting fiercely, many shouting to push for 100,000, while miners quietly moved almost all the assets mined over half a month onto trading platforms. It's worth noting that over 90% of BTC transferred to exchanges ends up directly with orders placed for cash, with less than 10% of BTC actually stored in wallets.
It's not that BTC is about to crash, but this signal is definitely sober: even miners with their cost lines here feel there's enough profit margin at the current price to cash in. Retail investors trading coins with spare cash shouldn't rush to max out leverage and rush in. At least don't chase the highs now. Once you see the momentum from miners' sell-offs, it's not too late to get in then. On-chain data doesn't lie. If you really wait for tens of thousands of BTC to crash, you'll be too late to escape.📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 11)
According to liquidation data, this bull market was frantically rubbed by the bull market...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $18,200 $18,200 $9.25
4 hours: $38,400, $38,400, $9.25
12 hours: $43,800 $43,800 $9.63
24 hours: $60,800 $59,200 $1,568.80
From $LAB's liquidation data, 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour long liquidations crushed the shorts, with almost zero 1-hour and 4-hour short positions, 12-hour short positions only $9.63, and the short selling in the short to medium term unfolded with explosive intensity; 24-hour long liquidations soared to $59,200, 37.7 times the short sell-out. Dog Farm completed a full-cycle slaughter of the bulls on LAB—short-, medium, and long-term bulls were targeted and destroyed from all directions, and the only resistance the bears had slightly strengthened in the long term but was a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations breaking through $60,000. The bulls were bleeding like rivers, and the long selling momentum was unstoppable. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? HYPE | The development team redeemed 433,000 HYPE and began selling
According to PANews referral on-chain analyst Yu Jin monitoring, HyperLabs redeemed 433,000 HYPE from staking in the early hours of 8/7, worth about $24.25 million, then transferred 165,000 (about $9.23 million) to market maker Flowdesk within a few hours, transferred 75,000 (about $4.19 million) into Hyperliquid for USDC, and 90,000 (about $5.04 million) into OKX and Bybit. This is the most important evidence upgrade in this window: On 8/8, scanning confirmed "actual withdrawal after unlocking on 8/6 was limited, with no signs of unexpected selling pressure." This on-chain behavior shows that after unlocking and claiming, there was indeed selling activity, reviving supply concerns.
The impact on investment assumptions is concentrated on supply and token capture dimensions. 433,000 tokens account for about 0.19% of circulating supply; the single batch size is not large, but combined with the monthly unlocking mechanism continuing until 2027, if selling trends occur, it will erode the capture narrative formed by "99% revenue buyback."
The strongest negative explanation is: the team has a total value of vested tokens of about $4.3 billion, but has only withdrawn 4.3% so far. Historically, early monthly withdrawals were often accompanied by re-staking and long-term holding. This sale may be a routine liquidity management move rather than a systematic reduction; 我的结论先放前面：CATI这轮不是“没资金”，而是巨量换手后涨幅被明显压缩。成交爆发是真实的，但新增杠杆并没有同步失控，我更愿把它定义为一次高强度价格发现，而不是已经确认的新趋势。 截至8月9日09:00，北京时间过去12小时，OKX现货CATI上涨约8.4%，成交额约69.2万美元，是前一等长窗口的53.5倍。币安现货同期上涨约8.1%，成交额约295万美元、放大约85.4倍；Bybit现货也上涨约8.2%，成交放大约18.2倍。三所方向一致，说明这不是单一盘口的报价异常。 但只看收盘涨幅，会漏掉真正的信息。CATI在03:25一度较窗口起点上涨约26.6%，到09:00已较高点回撤约14.4%。换句话说，大量成交没有把全部涨幅留住。它可能代表高位卖盘被充分交换，也可能意味着早期资金借题材热度退出；仅凭成交倍数，无法区分“承接”与“派发”。 衍生品给出了另一层线索。币安永续成交放大约42.2倍，Bybit约43.3倍，但两处未平仓量只分别增加约3.1%和6.6%。8月9日08:00，两处资金费率都回到约+0.005%的常规水平。价格上涨、成交剧增，而仓位只温和增加，说明本轮更像强换手It should be a miner who deposited 2,802 BTC ($182 million) to Binance in the past two days.
In the past 20 days, he or they have cumulatively deposited as much as 6,494 BTC ($421 million) to Binance, with an average price of about $64,798.
Address: bc1qsylwjhesm58uw9vsp7vwgadq5fqna4e3e8qnpdMichael Saylor said something that I found especially apt:
"Bitcoin doesn't need the CLARITY Act. It's the United States that needs it. ”
Whether Bitcoin has this bill or not, it's running, mining, and holding.
But American institutions can't get in. American banks don't dare touch it. American funds are watching and waiting.
A vacuum does not stop industry development; it only pushes development elsewhere.
FTX proves that the industry needs rules.
But Washington spent three years and still hasn't even clarified the question of "who sets the rules."
It has been over a year since the House passed the bill. It has been almost three months since the Senate Banking Committee passed it.
616 pages of bill text, with 300 pages of amendments. It took 11 months of discussion.
And then?
Adjournment. We'll talk about it in September.
What if it still doesn't get through in September?
The political landscape could change completely after the midterm elections. Lummis warned that if it is delayed until after the election, legislation could stall for up to four years.
In the fourth year.
Three years is long enough.The deepening divide over Fed rate hikes stems from the combination of "inflation resilience" and "vague policy communication." On one hand, core U.S. inflation remains above the 2% target, and total demand expansion driven by energy prices, tariff costs, and AI capital spending has made regional Fed chairs restless—the July meeting saw three unanimous rate hike dissenting votes, marking Walsh's first collective tightening call since taking office.
On the other hand, Walsh has proactively reduced forward-looking guidance and abandoned clear path anchors, forcing the market to piece together fragmented information, with different players choosing different dimensions for pricing. This has led to a split pattern of "hawkish voting, dovish market sentiment."
SPY (S&P 500): 📉📈 Short-term rate hike expectations are heating up and weighing on valuations, especially in high-valuation tech sectors; In the long term, if AI productivity improves and rate cuts resume, it will return 📈.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): 📉 Most sensitive to real interest rates, facing the greatest downward 📉 pressure on short-term liquidity tightening.
XAU (Gold): 📈📈 In the short term, it is pressured by rising real interest rates, but inflation resistance credibility is shaken, and central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization provide long-term bottom support, with both short- and long-term biases 📈.
Will core PCE rebound in the future, and when will Walsh's "constructive ambiguity" give way to a clear path? The greater the disagreement, the more intense the asset volatility; staggered positioning is more reliable than betting on direction. #美联储加息分歧加深
$XAU $SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU
SKHYNIX has bought back $SKHYNIX, but the market is unlikely to accept it.
The big winner in AI storage, SK Hynix, has this time poured in:
💰 100 trillion Korean won, approximately $71 billion in shareholder returns
Let's break it down:
🔥 40 trillion won in stock buybacks, about $28.4 billion
It only repurchased 2% of shares, just enough to make up for the diluted ADR listing.
Sounds intimidating.
But on the global storage battlefield, the comparison reveals the truth:
$MU Micron:
They openly declared that 100% of free cash flow would be used for buybacks, and the market expects to buy back 40% of shares by 2028.
$SNDK SanDisk:
$15.5 billion, accounting for 8.7% of market capitalization.
Kioxia:
$5.5 billion, accounting for 3.4% of market value.
What about Hynix?
It was more like saying:
"Shareholders, I will take care of you."
Instead of:
"AI dividends, I'll give you all of them."
In the AI era, HBM is the moat.
Cash flow buybacks are the real answer for investors.
The ultimate showdown among the future storage giants:
It's not just about who sells the most chips,
It's even more about who can turn profits into money in shareholders' pockets.
The storage war is just entering its most thrilling chapter.
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, pressure to invest in AI is intensifying
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes BICO有庄家在操盘，而且痕迹非常明显。
这不是猜测，是链上数据和盘面行为共同指向的结论！
① 筹码集中度：前100地址控制100%供应量
根据链上数据，BICO前100名持币地址合计持有100% 的代币供应量，其中第一大持币地址就占了50% 。前十大地址控制了约68%的流通量。这意味着几个大户联手就能决定价格方向——拉升只需要他们点一下鼠标，砸盘也只需要他们点一下鼠标。
② 历史拉盘行为：半小时翻倍，没有消息面支撑
2026年6月20日，BICO半小时内拉了近80%，成交量并不算特别大，且没有任何正经利好消息，团队也没有发推。这种走势被市场参与者明确标记为庄家行为。
8月8日，BICO从0.032拉到0.059，45分钟翻倍，成交额3.95亿。分析师指出，这种强势走法在庄家控盘币里常见于拉高建仓。一周之内从0.011拉到0.0638，涨幅超430%。而BICO的ATH是8美元，跌了整整4年半，跌掉了99.86%。
③ 项目方出货记录：9000万BICO转入交易所
2026年5月，项目方将9000万个BICO（价值约900万美元）解锁后转入交易所。这种操作在历史上每次都被市场解读为高位出货信号。不过，团队、VC早期份额的解锁周期已经基本走完，目前不再有集中大额砸盘压力。BICO目前属于全流通状态，这与其他仍有大量解锁压力的币种相比，是一个区别。
④ 项目基本面：有叙事，但缺乏收入支撑
Biconomy做的是账户抽象基础设施——免Gas交易、账户抽象、跨链中继，多链日处理约5万笔交易，对接40多个dApp。技术方向本身没问题，但这个赛道竞争激烈（Safe、Pimlico、Stackup等）。当前0.05-0.06美元的价格，相对于8美元的ATH仍跌了99%以上。短期暴涨基本靠投机资金推动，跟基本面关系不大。
BICO是一个典型的庄家控盘币——筹码极度集中、拉盘没有消息面支撑、项目方有过高位出货记录。在这个位置参与，本质上是在和筹码最集中的那批人博弈。 0.06上方有大量套牢盘抛压，短期波动极大。如果你决定参与，轻仓、止损、短线，缺一不可What happened yesterday? A big bullish candlestick, then came back again
During the day on August 8, $SPCX saw a sharp rally on OKX, reaching a high of around $130.66.
The logic behind this rally was clear: the sell wall was swallowed. At that time, there was a sell order wall of about $2.83 million hanging in the $117.2-$118 range, but it was swallowed up by active buyers. Once the sell wall broke, the price broke through $120 and climbed above $130.
But the high level didn't last long. The footprint chart has continuously recorded negative Delta values (-159,000, -192,000), indicating concentrated active selling and a rapid price drop from $130.66 to around $114, just hitting a support level.
One needle goes up, one needle falls, and those chasing higher are left to enjoy the wind atop the mountain.
Market Status: Bulls and bears are stuck between $126 and $128
According to OKX data, several key current signals are:
· Spot/Contract Spread: OKX perpetual contract $127.68, slightly lower than spot, indicating short-term bearish sentiment prevails
· Trading volume shrinked: 24-hour contract turnover was about 215,614 contracts, a clear decrease compared to previous days, indicating the market is moving in the same direction
· Upper selling pressure zone: $133.5-$153 gathers about $10.76 million in whale sell orders, with $7.61 million being long take-profits
· Support zone below: $100-$106.1 is the first support zone, with clear long-selling funds appearing at $83.8-$96.2
Conclusion: There are sell orders worth tens of millions hanging above, waiting to be dumped; below, whales are slowly accumulating shares. This position is flat, not surprising.
Operational Recommendations (Based on Current OKX Data)
Spot players:
· Placed small positions in the $125-$127 range, which is the lower boundary of the current price, with a decent profit-loss ratio
· Breaking below $120 means the bulls' defense line has collapsed
· Above $133-$135, take half the profit—this is the first major whale selling zone
Contract Player (High Risk):
· Long strategy: Stabilize near $127, light position, test long, target $130-$133, stop loss at $124.5
· Short strategy: Rebound to $133-$135 under pressure, light position to test shorts, target $127, stop loss above $137
· Note: Volatility has retreated from highs, but a single needle up and down of 5% remains normal, with leverage kept within 3x
Buddhist Players:
· This position is unclear between bulls and bears; wait for a exit below $120 or above $135 before moving out
· Or use OKX's spot grid robot, set a grid in the $120-$135 range, and automatically buy high and buy low
My judgment
SPCX jumped from $107 to $130, then back to $127, essentially a recovery after the negative impact was exhausted.
Yesterday's $117→130 rally was driven by active buying and selling walls, not a fundamental-driven trend reversal. The spike in the negative delta at high levels shows smart money is selling off, and those chasing the high have been listed again.
SpaceX's long-term story is clear—Q2 revenue up 92% year-on-year, Starlink users surpassed 10 million. But with whale orders piled up at $133-$153 worth of tens of millions of dollars, to surpass them in the short term, you'd need even bigger buying than yesterday.
I choose to wait. If below $125, see if there are signs of stabilization; if it confirms a breakout above $135, chase further. In the middle section, whoever wants to gamble can gamble.
💬 Discussion topic: Did you get caught in yesterday's $117 → $130 rally? Or did chasing the high get stuck at the peak? Share your SPCX trading in the comments 👇📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 11)
According to liquidation data, the bulls and bears repeatedly squeeze and squeeze, while the dog farmer buys back and sells...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $33,900 $25,900 $8,030.96
4 hours: $131,600 $66,900 $64,700
12 hours: $1,122,800, $583,500, $539,300
24 hours: $1,745,300 $1,110,500 $634,800
From $KAITO's liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with shorts outnumbering the bulls at 3.2 times, with a fierce short squeeze at the start; the 4-hour direction reversed, with long liquidations overtaking the bears, but the ratio was only 1.03 times, so the short squeeze was basically even; the 12-hour bullish advantage continued to expand, about 1.08 times, with a mild start of long selling; 24-hour long liquidations soared to $1.11 million, 1.75 times the shorts. On KAITO, Dog Farm made a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling—short-term short chases were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term long chases were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.74 million. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Yesterday, everyone was in the yellow zone, I didn't move.
Today, OP -1.03σ and H-0.93σ entered the green bearish zone, but I still didn't move.
Why? Because of two conditions for taking action, neither was met:
(1) ETH falls back below +0.5σ → currently at +0.13σ, still 0.6σ short
(2) OKX major players rebounded above 1.0 → Currently 0.30, historical low 📊. Today's sentiment panorama
• BTC +0.26σ (Yellow·Waiting)
• ETH +0.13σ (Yellow·Waiting)
• CRV +0.53σ (Light Orange · Bearish)
• OP -1.03σ (green, slightly bullish). ⚡
• H -0.93σ (light green, slightly bullish) Everyone ⚡ watches for day 2. However, OP and H have quietly entered the bearish zone, marking the first time in nearly seven days that a token has entered the green zone. ⚠️ But cross-department data is in conflict, deviation degree 1.35 = ● strong divergence
OKX whales are panic-short (0.30, historical low), while Binance whales are firmly going long (1.55, stable with a slightly bullish bias).
In the same market, the big players on both exchanges are trading each other's SB.
Four consecutive days of strong divergence, the first time in nearly 30 days. 💡 My operation
80% of the positions were empty.
If either of the two conditions is met, I'll take action:
1. ETH falls back below +0.5σ (normal range→ may open long
2. OKX major players rebound above 1.0 → Cross-exchange divergence resolved
Not swayed by fluctuations, only acting for signals.
📋 Today$BTC $ETH #非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes. Latest international front: US nonfarm payroll data has been sharply revised downward, and the weaker-than-expected job market has directly reduced the likelihood of Fed rate hikes. Expectations for rate cuts surged rapidly in the fourth quarter, while US dollar and Treasury yields fell simultaneously. Global liquidity has reached marginal easing, providing macro support for risk assets like BTC and ETH. Currently, BTC is fluctuating narrowly around $65,000, while ETH has held above the $1,900 mark and rebounded slightly in the short term. Both are trading sideways and gathering momentum, with bulls and bears trading especially cautious. On the capital side, spot ETFs have seen recent large net inflows. Institutions are positioning themselves on dips to support the market, but retail investor sentiment remains sluggish, market trading volume continues to shrink, and there is a lack of incremental funds to drive strong gains. Key resistance levels above are under obvious pressure, making rallies very easy to pull back. In terms of trends, the two are highly diverged: Bitcoin has a larger market capitalization, remains steady and resistant to declines, and tends to fluctuate within a range; Ethereum relies on DeFi and its public chain ecosystem, giving it stronger market elasticity, and its gains during favorable phases usually outperform BTC. In the short term, the market is highly tied to Fed policy expectations. Once inflation data rebounds and rate cut expectations cool, cryptocurrencies will quickly pull back; Only when easing expectations are truly realized can a bullish rally fully unfold. At present, macro positive factors provide a bottom-line support, with funds mainly watching from the sidelines. Unilateral price movements are unlikely to occur, and overall the market remains range-bound. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? Today I bought 14,000 fil, price 0.71. Why buy fil?
Recently, everyone knows that SK Hynix has surged fiercely and dropped sharply, mainly because it was heavily speculated, so a drop is quite normal; But we need to study a question: why is SK Hynix rising? Including Micron MU and SanDisk SNDK, mainly due to the surge in storage demand,
We tried to clarify a line of thinking
AI explosion fuels Nvidia's market value, which surpasses Apple's
This was then passed on to the storage market
AI has transformed "memory" from an ordinary semiconductor component into the core bottleneck of AI computing power, and SK Hynix has precisely bet on the most critical component: HBM.
You can think of an AI server as a supercar.
NVIDIA GPU = engine
HBM = Fuel tank supplying the engine at high speed / highway
No matter how powerful the GPU is, if the memory can't keep up, the GPU will be "starving."
Traditional DDR memory has large capacity, but its speed and bandwidth are insufficient.
Next, let's talk about filing
From a price perspective, the current trend is oversold, falling from 237 to 0.7, but FIL is still mining, meaning it is still producing FIL daily. But there is a core logic here: can real demand growth exceed mining selling pressure?
AI actually gives FIL imaginable possibilities
Training data, models, videos, images, user data, agent data...
The demand for data storage will only continue to grow in the future
So will FIL become the infrastructure for decentralized storage in the AI era? I think it's possible.
From a fundamental and technical perspective, there is room for imagination at 0.7 price here, but please bring stop-losses in advance, because these are assumptions. If our assumption is not valid, a drop to 0.1 or even deeper is a probability #BTC