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Since entering this week, crypto has been on a steady but slowly upward trend: Bitcoin started rising slowly from 63,000 on August 2 and is approaching 65,000 today; Ethereum once nearly dropped below 1800 but has now climbed back above 1900. Liquidity has been well coordinated, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows for three consecutive trading days this week, and Ethereum ETFs also seeing net inflows on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the current market, this liquidity is extremely valuable
The neighboring side is still on a roller coaster. US stock indices haven't fluctuated much, but individual stocks are very exciting: Google -4%, SpaceX -13.6% in a single day, falling below 110, and even below 100 is risky; SanDisk dropped -5% after earnings report. Korean stocks just rebounded yesterday but fell back today: KOSPI -4.6%, Samsung -6%, SK Hynix -10%. Most popular storage stocks have basically returned to April levels; the past three months have been just a pipe dream—but amid the ongoing FOMO rally and aggressive liquidations, countless leveraged principals have already been wiped out. In any market, principal is always the most precious
Macro slightly improved: oil prices remained steady below 80, and the probability of a rate hike in September dropped to 54%; Gold rebounded from below 4000 to near 4300, indirectly indicating inflation is under control. But for crypto, what's even more crucial is the clear bill—tomorrow is August 7th, just one working day left, so rationally, this time is basically unlikely to pass. There are only two windows left: after Congress finishes the budget in September, or after the midterm elections. No need to rush; this bill will definitely pass eventually, it's just a matter of time
Let's focus on on-chain platforms. The most exciting event last night was Robinhood, which originated from Uniswap personally getting involved. Uniswap's current 24-hour trading volume exceeds $1.7 billion, almost double that of second-place Pancake—the DEX leader uses technology and deep understanding of AMM as launchpads, giving them a strong latecomer advantage. My judgment: as long as Uni wants to do well, it's very likely to replace Pons as the leading launchpad on the RB chain. Pons has indeed dropped sharply recently, with market cap once falling below 20 million
Pools. Trading Day 1 Battle: Dragon One Frog once reached 10 million, now down to 8.6 million; Dragon Two official meme with the same name is at 2.3 million. The show just started, keeping a close eye on Uni and RB's official attitudes. The funny thing is, Sushiswap immediately teamed up with Bnker to launch a Pools. Fun directly copies the work, but the site currently only has one animation, and the few coins released aren't very high. Fighting aside, my favorite is still Uniswap
Cashcat wants to say a few words: after I sold for 160 million, it dropped below 40 million at the lowest, and in just three days, it recovered 120 million. This round of aggressive shakeout has completed the chip turnover. If the official side provides further support, breaking the previous high won't be a big problem
On the BSC side, after Alpha announced its support for dividends, Marscoin's price once surged to 70 million, but now it has retreated to about 50 million. Yesterday, CZ quoted Coin as the original post "All on Binance"—everyone carefully pondered this tweet: the first layer quoted "Why run around everywhere, the Binance Security Department has it"; The second layer translated this phrase for foreigners who don't understand Chinese; The third layer said AOB is a more widely spread advertising slogan in the English-speaking world than Bitcoin. So everyone on the chain is discussing whether AOB might take over the coin
The next key node for BSC is one thing: when CZ personally buys the token, and what to buy. My judgment is that buying Mars is more likely — this token is very tight in operation, chip control, and rhythm, with a market cap of 53 million already significant, but there is a short-term chance to challenge 100 million
Summary: Crypto steadily rose in August, but the external environment could cause the market to take a sharp turn at any time—this isn't a bad thing. If there really is a ridiculous drop in the next three months, it's actually a good opportunity to build positions and accumulate funds. All the hot topics are on the chain. No one knows how long BSC and RB can last. If you follow the market trend, it's already good if the market doesn't cool down. Wait patiently for the market, trust the cycle, protect your principal, and don't rushFrom an exclusive perspective, starting this year, a very obvious change in the crypto world is:
Daily fluctuations are getting smaller, but real big moves are becoming more concentrated.
ETH fell from over 3000 to 1500, then from 1500 back to 1900, showing a strong trend, but for most trading days, there was almost no volatility.
What truly determines direction is often the last crucial hour or two:
Before the weekly close, before the five-day line switches, and before the three-day moving average ends.
You can trade sideways for a few days at first, then suddenly surge or crash.
What does this mean for retail investors?
You have no idea when or where it moves.
Either chase the rally or sell it down.
This is exactly the rhythm the main players love most.
So now, those who open contracts every day, frequently go long or short and claim to make stable profits are basically nonsense, and they're all losing money.
With this kind of market that stays unmoved for a long time and suddenly completes a direction in just one or two hours, what can you use to compete with institutions, ETFs, and quantitative machines?
But from another perspective, spot goods are actually very comfortable.
ETH can wear you down for days with fluctuations of a few dollars or even a few cents, but the major trend has moved from 1500 to 1900.
So my principles are getting simpler:
The current crypto scene is dominated by spot trading.
Most of the time, there's no need to watch the market at all—once a day is enough.
Currently, this kind of daily volatility is even worse than many stocks.
Trade less and catch the trend.
This is the most suitable approach for ordinary investors right now.这个位置永久性看跌存储的人，不是愚蠢，就是坏
存储全球都缺。
它不是币圈垃圾山寨币，动不动奔着跌99%去。
这种全球性短缺的东西，有底。
最多极限跌个50%-70%，现在已经砸了接近50%，下跌空间极其有限。
一般市场有两个底部——政策底和市场底。
高盛刚重申买入，三星海力士长协已经锁到2027年了，韩国政府也救市了，这就是政策底
2015年A股，国家救市救出一个政策底，反弹完之后跌破政策底，跌出市场底。但回头看，政策底到市场底中间，就是一个完美的黄金坑。
历史不会完全一样，但相似性可以到99%。
所以现在存储，就是跌到了政策底。就算后面跌破这个政策底，走一个市场底——首先回调空间有限，其次这本身就是黄金坑的一部分。
肯定有人会说：那为什么不等等市场底再抄？
做交易的人会明白一个道理——下跌中没有你，上涨中也一定没有你。 几百年了，这个规律从来没打破过。
越跌越不敢买，涨了追进来，永远在追涨杀跌。
天天发帖子分析基本面、技术、对照历史，最后股价一定会回到赚钱能力上、回到估值上。到目前为止，你能看到公司变坏了吗？看到基本面变烂了吗？
既然没有，那就是机会，这是常识。
Buy the moat, ride the bull — 买护城河，拿长牛。
$SKHY $MU #存储 #芯片 #科技股 #A股 #美股At 20:30 tomorrow night, the July nonfarm payroll report will directly determine U.S. interest rate expectations for September, and the crypto market will also face its direction choice.
This data is the most important employment report since the Fed's July policy meeting, and will directly affect US Treasury yields, dollar movements, and short-term pricing of global risk assets. Previously, ADP's small nonfarm payroll data was clearly below expectations, and the market is already betting on the path of gradually cooling employment.
Market paths corresponding to three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, and wages rise in tandem
Hot employment data will delay rate cut expectations, US Treasury yields will rise, high-valuation AI technology and storage sectors will be under the heaviest pressure, and growth stocks like MU and SNDK will be easily sold off; Dow blue chips will remain relatively resilient, and there will be significant divergence at the index level.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises
The market will strengthen expectations for rate cuts, with falling US Treasury yields benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware are expected to see a recovery rebound. However, caution is needed regarding one risk: poor data may trigger market concerns about an economic recession, leading to short-term broad declines.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cooled mildly, neither hot nor lukewarm. U.S. stocks continued the current fragmented pattern, with the Dow slightly stronger and the Nasdaq oscillating at high levels. The market returned to earnings report logic, with internal sector rotation continuing.
Setting aside nonfarm payrolls, the structural assessment of US stocks themselves:
1. The storage sector is currently in a period of intense volatility following the financial report being disproven. SNDK has formed a deep V reversal, but the downward expectations caused by the earnings report have not been fully digested. Looking ahead, the key focus is on whether MU's key support can hold—holding it means sector differentiation and recovery; If it is effectively broken, storage will enter a medium-term valuation digestion phase, and it is not advisable to view the oversold rebound directly as the main rally.
2. Structural market differentiation will continue to unfold. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; Companies with high profits but conservative shareholder returns and guidance will be continuously abandoned by capital. The broad rally has ended, and stock selection has clearly become more difficult.
3. Risk points cannot be ignored. $SPCX the massive unlocking pressure remains, it will occasionally disturb the market and amplify the intraday spike volatility.
Key Targets to Watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with Weakening Momentum and Capital Exits:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation in the observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Market logic summary:
· $BTC — The liquidity center of the crypto market, which determines the overall market temperature
· $ETH — Institutional funds continue to lay out, accumulating assets amid volatility
· $SOL — Layer 1 acts as a flexible asset, with considerable space when the market launches
· $TAO & $WLD — The AI main theme continues to gain popularity, repeatedly attracting capital attention
· $HYPE — A gauge of speculative sentiment to assess current risk appetite
· $DOGE & $ZEC — Retail investor sentiment window, reflecting short-term speculative enthusiasm这轮行情里，不是每一颗星星都会发光✨ 把所有筹码都押注在“全市场一起涨”的想象上，往往是我们最快落入被动的方式。🧐
当下的市场，并不是“雨露均沾”的普涨季节，而更像是一场精心筛选的轮动游戏🎠 极度的流动性分化之下，资金只会流向那些叙事足够动人、盘面结构扎实、又有明确催化剂支撑的项目；而其余大部分代币，只能安静地停留在原地，在真实成交量稀缺的环境里默默挣扎。
🟢 近期资金流入较为明显的区域：
$JTO ／ $JELLY ／ $BTC ／ $OPG ／ $BTCSLX ／ $LAB ／ $BSB ／ $ALLO ／ $CHIP
📉 明显失去动能的币种：
$BEAT ／ $EDGE ／ $COAI ／ $TRUMP ／ $RAVE ／ $SPACE ／ $SOPH ／ $IP ／ $AVNT ／ $ZAMA ／ $OFC ／ $PIEVERSE ／ $VIRTUAL ／ $ACU ／ $H ／ $MEGA
👀 目前在我的观察列表里：
$MEME ／ $EDEN ／ $HUMA ／ $ZKP ／ $METIS
而就整体市场结构来看，我的理解是这样的🌿
👑 $BTC 依然是整个系统流动性的核心引擎
🏛️ $ETH 持续展现出平稳而耐心的吸筹节奏
⚡ $SOL 依然是 Layer 1 中弹性最强的选手
🤖 $TAO 与 $WLD 延续着 AI 叙事带来的关注度
📈 $HYPE 是我们感知整体风险偏好的温度计
🛍️ $DOGE 与 $ZEC 则像一面镜子，清晰映照出散户投资者的情绪起伏
这一轮周期带给我的感受，总是在。。这轮行情里，不是每一颗星星都会发光✨ 把所有筹码都押注在“全市场一起涨”的想象上，往往是我们最快落入被动的方式。🧐
当下的市场，并不是“雨露均沾”的普涨季节，而更像是一场精心筛选的轮动游戏🎠 极度的流动性分化之下，资金只会流向那些叙事足够动人、盘面结构扎实、又有明确催化剂支撑的项目；而其余大部分代币，只能安静地停留在原地，在真实成交量稀缺的环境里默默挣扎。
🟢 近期资金流入较为明显的区域：
$JTO ／ $JELLY ／ $BTC ／ $OPG ／ $BTCSLX ／ $LAB ／ $BSB ／ $ALLO ／ $CHIP
📉 明显失去动能的币种：
$BEAT ／ $EDGE ／ $COAI ／ $TRUMP ／ $RAVE ／ $SPACE ／ $SOPH ／ $IP ／ $AVNT ／ $ZAMA ／ $OFC ／ $PIEVERSE ／ $VIRTUAL ／ $ACU ／ $H ／ $MEGA
👀 目前在我的观察列表里：
$MEME ／ $EDEN ／ $HUMA ／ $ZKP ／ $METIS
而就整体市场结构来看，我的理解是这样的🌿
👑 $BTC 依然是整个系统流动性的核心引擎
🏛️ $ETH 持续展现出平稳而耐心的吸筹节奏
⚡ $SOL 依然是 Layer 1 中弹性最强的选手
🤖 $TAO 与 $WLD 延续着 AI 叙事带来的关注度
📈 $HYPE 是我们感知整体风险偏好的温度计
🛍️ $DOGE 与 $ZEC 则像一面镜子，清晰映照出散户投资者的情绪起伏
这一轮周期带给我的感受，总是在。The biggest concession from the U.S.? If Iran gains "control over the port," what would it mean for oil prices and BTC?
This week, if you keep an eye on oil prices and BTC, you should be overwhelmed.
On August 4, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said — "The U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement as soon as today or tomorrow" — causing oil prices to plunge more than 5% in an instant. BTC rebounded and climbed back above $64,000.
The market cheered: the straits are about to open, oil prices are falling, inflation is cooling down, and the Fed is going to loosen its tone.
And then?
On August 5, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson poured cold water on the issue: the Iran-Iraq agreement alone "does not mean the strait is safe for ships passing through." Because the U.S. blockade still exists.
On August 6, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibbadi responded: reaching an agreement does not automatically open the strait; the key depends on whether the U.S. fulfills its commitments—lifting maritime blockades, lifting sanctions, and unfreezing assets.
On August 7, Brent crude oil rose back to $83. Within a week, the market was played three times from $79 to $83.
Between the agreement "close to being reached" and "already implemented" lies a whole Washington gap.
So what exactly is this agreement? Why is there such a big controversy?
Reuters quoted sources saying the proposed agreement would grant Iran control over ships entering the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships entering the port are up to Iran.
The ship departing from port would take the Oman route, and after Oman notified Iran, it was released.
This is one of the largest concessions Iran has ever made.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil supply. The United States had previously made it clear that it would "never agree to Iranian control." If this step is conceded, it means the regional balance of power is beginning to tilt in favor of Tehran.
But the biggest issue isn't whether to sign it, but whether it can be enforced if signed.
Industry insiders have already warned that this agreement is difficult to implement.
Why?
First, U.S. sanctions. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Iran's "Persian Gulf Authority," which operates the waterway. Any fee collection could lead to asset freezing. The U.S. Treasury Department also prohibits American personnel from receiving services related to "ensuring safe passage" provided by the Iranian government.
Second, insurance clauses. At the end of July, Lloyd's Markets introduced new clauses—if ships pay transit fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, insurance coverage will be terminated.
Shipping companies are caught in a dilemma: if they don't pay, Iran won't let them pass; If they do, the insurance company won't cover them.
Iran wants to charge a fee of 5% to 7% of the value of goods, Oman wants 3%, and the U.S. wants to be completely free.
Each side spoke their own way, with no one willing to back down.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
Two scenarios, worlds apart:
Scenario 1: The agreement is truly implemented, and navigation resumes.
Oil prices retreat → cooling inflation expectations → easing Fed rate hike pressure → theoretically benefiting risk assets like BTC.
Scenario 2: Agreement stalled, continued navigation obstruction.
Oil prices climb → inflation expectations heat up → Fed maintains hawkish stance→ BTC under pressure.
Over the past week, the market has been repeatedly trading these two expectations.
But the real risk lies in the market—the market is pricing in "agreement signing," while the real risk lies in "agreement execution."
What Iran got in hand was a piece of paper, or control of a ship?
The result was worlds apart.
If it were just paper, oil prices would fall, BTC would rise, and everything would go on as usual.
But if control is truly gained—one-fifth of the world's oil lifeline is in Tehran's hands— Oil prices will not be just short-term fluctuations, but structural repricing. Inflation will not be just a short-term disturbance, but a persistent pressure. The Fed will not just stand by and watch, but will be forced to remain hawkish.
By then, BTC will no longer face a "geopolitical risk premium" but rather "macro liquidity depletion."
So next, don't just look at whether the agreement is signed.
Focus on three things:
👉 Whether the U.S. lifts the maritime blockade—if not, the agreement is worthless.
👉 Whether the Iranian parliament will approve the draft — the text is currently under parliamentary review.
👉 Whether Lloyd's insurance terms are loose—if not, shipping companies simply won't dare to take action.
An agreement "close to being reached" does not mean "already implemented."
The market is pricing in "agreement signing," but the real risk lies in "agreement execution."
Iran got either a piece of paper or control of a ship, but the outcome was worlds apart.
Oil prices ranged from 79 to 83, and the market was played three times in a week. How many times have you been played?
$BTC $BZ $CL #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻, oil price risks have intensified again On August 6, SpaceX experienced its first large-scale unlocking of restricted shares since its listing. According to the announcement, about 911.5 million restricted shares have been granted tradable rights, corresponding to a potential market value of approximately $100 billion. Such a massive unlocking scale is considered a major event in the history of listed companies, so the market generally expects the company's stock price to face enormous selling pressure. However, the market's final answer surprised everyone. On the day of the lock-up, SpaceX not only avoided the "stampede decline" investors feared, but instead rose 6.14% for the day, with a trading volume of 251 million shares, the highest since June 18. Why did the market's expected negative news not materialize? Does this rise mean the risk has been resolved, or is it just a short-term emotional recovery? To answer this question, we need to look at four aspects: market expectations, capital structure, company fundamentals, and future supply and demand relationships. 1. Why didn't the stock price crash after the lock-up lift? 1. The biggest negative news actually already sees itself in the stock price. There's a classic saying in the capital market: the market isn't trading news, it's expectations. What really drives stock prices down is often not the negative news itself, but whether the market fully anticipated it. SpaceX is a typical case. The day before the lock-up lift, the company released its first financial report after going public. Although revenue and core business performance exceeded market expectations, capital expenditures far exceeded market expectations, and combined with the upcoming large-scale lock-up, investor sentimentThe Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times this year (according to Bank of America CEO), nonfarm payrolls are hesitant to move on the eve of farm payrolls, and funds are clustering in gold/coal/high dividends for safe-haven funds.
On the AI side, they are completely ignorant of interest rates: DeepSeek price hikes, Meta implementing a "data tax," Alibaba's open-source model revenue cuts, ByteDance pouring money into creating Mythos-level supermodels...
The era of free reasoning has officially ended, and developers face the triple tax of "paying data, cash, and computing power"...
It's a case of 'raising interest rates in one hand to extract liquidity, right hand arms race to burn cash flow, small and medium entrepreneurs in between, squeezed to the bones.'Google is forcing financing despite soaring interest rates, and the market is already fearing this bottomless money-burning game.
To build AI data centers, Google is preparing to borrow another $25 billion. This loan interest rate is much higher than before, and it will take up to 40 years to repay. In the first six months of this year, they have already raised $135 billion in financing, and now big companies are frantically borrowing to compete on computing power.
The cost of borrowing money keeps rising, but fewer investors are willing to buy it. Because Google doubled its budget to $205 billion, people are very afraid of such massive expenses. The giants are all engaged in an arms race, and the biggest fear is that only the equipment sellers will take everything, while the big manufacturers buying equipment will just hold on.
I still think Google's cash flow is very tight right now. Although it claims $500 billion in cloud orders, that's just a figure on paper. How many of these orders will actually be converted into real cash, and whether the accounts can be quickly recovered, is the key. Before you see the cash flow, relying on high-interest loans to support investment risks is extremely high.
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, pressure to invest in AI is intensifying
@OKX planet cxmt/usdt
Changxin Technology's medium- to long-term bearish logic
The core reason for long-term short selling of Changxin Technology
1. Memory chips are destined for strong cycles and are currently at a high level of prosperity
DRAM is a bulk commodity, with a full cycle every 3-4 years: price increases→ expansion → oversupply→ price crashes, and industry losses.
Current high profits come from overseas giants' production controls combined with AI-driven price hikes, which is not a normal profitability.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will soon restart GM DRAM expansion, and with Changxin's own continued expansion, supply will be significantly released in 2027-2028. Once supply exceeds demand, DRAM prices will plummet in the short term, and company profits will shrink rapidly from tens of billions, even back into loss territory.
During historical storage downturns, overseas giants saw profit drawdown by over 80%; Changxin's production lines are relatively new, facing greater depreciation pressure, and its risk resistance during the downturn phase is weaker than the overseas big three. Management's IPO roadshow also warns: do not linearly extrapolate the current high profits into the future.
2. Valuation includes cycle premium + domestic substitution sentiment premium
A static PE of 30 times may not look high, but this is the price-to-earnings ratio calculated from peak earnings of the cycle. Once profits decline and the price-to-earnings ratio passively rises, it will lead to a double blow to Davis: declining performance + declining valuations.
Overseas, SK Hynix and Micron have prosperous PEs of only 12-20 times; Changxin's market value is significantly higher than overseas peers, including a large emotional premium for domestic substitution in A-shares, and valuation faces rebound pressure after sentiment subsides.
3. Due to technological gaps, it's hard to capture the highest profit margin for AI storage, HBM
The vast majority of Changxin's revenue and profit come from ordinary DDR5 and LPDDR general-purpose memory; High-margin HBM (AI high-bandwidth memory) is still under development and has not yet been mass-commercialized.
The highest premium AI storage business is occupied by SK Hynix and Micron, while Changxin mainly competes fiercely in the conventional DRAM track, with product structure weaknesses that will be further amplified during cyclical downturns.
4. Asset-heavy model, continuous massive capital expenditures, and high depreciation
Wafer fabs are a continuously burning cash race, with continuous investment required for line iteration and expansion. Changxin's production line is relatively new, and the annual equipment depreciation amount is substantial. If chip prices fall and capacity utilization decreases, depreciation will directly erode profits. A large portion of the cash flow earned during boom periods is invested in building and iterating factories, making it difficult to convert all of it into shareholder free cash flow.
5. Unlocking chip supply pressure (complete unlock timeline)
Listing Reference Date: 2026-07-27
1. 2027-01-27 (6 months since listing): 70% of the restricted portion of offline allocation unlocked, about 1.5 billion shares, the first wave of institutional capital release.
2. 2027-07-27 (12 months since listing): Social security and pension strategic placement shares unlocked, about 660 million shares, available for long-term institutional selling.
3. 2028-01-27 (18 months since listing): Insurance capital, industrial chain strategic investors, and core employee asset management plans unlocked, about 465 million shares, releasing industrial capital chips.
4. 2028-07-27 (24 months since listing): Sponsor institutions co-invest shares unlocked, about 230 million shares; brokerage co-investing portion can reduce holdings upon maturity.
5. 2029-07-27 (After 36 months of listing, super unlocking window): Hefei state-owned assets, Big Fund Phase II, early original shareholders, and employee stock ownership platforms unlocked large numbers of old shares, making it the largest chip supply window.
Additional special commitment: founder Zhu Yiming voluntarily locks in shares for 10 years; After the major shareholder is unlocked, the reduction must comply with the new STAR Market reduction regulations. Once the stock is lifted, the ≠ immediately sells everything, but the significant increase in forward chip supply is an objective fact. In the early stages of listing, circulating shares are very small, making the stock price easily pushed up by capital. The subsequent phased unlocking will gradually change the supply-demand structure of the chips.
6. Risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations
Performance is highly tied to AI server procurement, PCs, and mobile phone storage procurement. If global cloud providers cool down in AI capital expenditure, consumer electronics demand weakens, DRAM demand will weaken, and performance will come under pressure.
General principle: Never go all out in one go; build positions in batches, only during the boom phase, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing on the left side.
1. Warehouse building range
- First batch short testing: stock price rebounded and stabilized in the 54-58 yuan range, sector sentiment was high, themes continued to ferment, and small positions were started for short testing;
- Second batch of short positions: stock price surges to 62-66 yuan, market collectively bullish the storage cycle continues, valuation bubbles further expand, increasing short positions;
3. Set stop-loss (the most important step in short selling)
Unified hard stop loss: 70 yuan. The stock price effectively broke through 70 yuan, indicating that the current domestic substitution + AI sentiment far outweighs cyclical logic. The bearish logic has failed, and all positions must be closed out without bearing unsold losses.
4. Take-profit targets are divided into two levels
- First take-profit: 38-41 yuan, with cyclical sentiment cooling and valuation premiums falling, 60% of short positions can be eliminated, and most profits realized;
- Second take-profit: 30-33 yuan, corresponding to the peak of the cycle's prosperity and the start of a downward adjustment in profits, closing the remaining position.
5. Holding time frame
This is a mid-term cycle game, not an overnight short-term trade, with an expected holding period of 6 months;
Summary: The core logic of short selling is essentially betting on the storage cycle peaking and retreating, high profits during a boom period are unsustainable, and the sentiment premium in valuation is returning. However, it is difficult to accurately predict the timing of cycle turning points, making short selling a high-risk operation.$OKB I noticed a pattern: before every price rise, Old Xu would lower OKB's popularity ranking by a few days in advance. Just a few days ago, the popularity was 8, but today it dropped straight to 13, and then a big green stick jumped up. It was always like this before. 1. What truly deserves attention is not the negative news, but why the negative news fails After the U.S. market closed on August 6, 2026, Sandisk and Western Digital simultaneously released their financial reports for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. From the financial data perspective, the two companies' performance cards actually far exceeded previous market expectations. Among them, SanDisk achieved revenue of $8.965 billion, up 372% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter; Gross margin, operating profit, and free cash flow all hit new highs in recent years. More than two-thirds of revenue growth came from ASP (average selling price) improvements rather than shipment volume growth, indicating that this round of profit improvement mainly comes from an optimization of the industry's supply-demand structure rather than a brief rebound after a price war. Western Digital also performed strongly, achieving revenue of $3.747 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%. Gross margin remained high, free cash flow remained healthy, and enterprise SSD business continued to contribute as the main source of profit. However, market attention has focused on management's revenue guidance for the next quarter. Since SanDisk expects revenue of about $10.55 billion in the next quarter, only slightly below the market's previously highly optimistic forecasts; although Western Digital's guidance was even slightly above consensus expectations, it still faced concentrated capital sell-offs. After the market opened, the entire storage sector experienced a sharp decline. SanDisk's intraday low fell to $116.7, Western Digital dropped to a low of $40.8, Micron and Seagate plunged simultaneously, and the entire SOXX and SMH sectors took half各位，美元这两天有点动静，创了近两周以来较强的单日表现。市场开始重新押注美元了吗？
表面上看，这波上涨是市场在重新调整美联储降息预期。美债收益率回升，加上避险资金重新流入美元，美元指数站上了103.80上方，刷新了两周新高。非美货币普遍承压，日元跌了0.7%，英镑跌了0.6%，欧元也小幅走弱。
之前的逻辑是降息预期升温导致美债收益率下降、美元承压。现在变成降息推迟、利率维持更久、美债收益率回升、美元反弹。市场从押注快速降息，变成了押注降息没那么快。
但米哥的看法是，这波更像短线修复，还不能定义为美元新一轮强周期。接下来两个方向决定走势。第一是就业数据，如果美国经济继续保持韧性，降息预期会进一步下降，美元可能继续走强。第二是通胀走势，如果通胀持续回落，美联储打开降息空间，美元反弹就会受限。
美元短期还有支撑，但长期仍受到降息周期和财政压力的影响。对币圈来说，美元走强通常会压制BTC和高估值科技股。但如果后续降息逻辑重新升温，资金可能再次回流风险资产。
市场现在交易的，不只是美元的涨跌，而是美联储下一步到底怎么走。各位怎么看这波美元反弹，是短期修复还是趋势反转的信号？评论区聊聊你的判断。祝大家今天交易顺利。#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $SNDK Why did performance beat expectations and still fall? And is the storage industry already oversupplied?
#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Let's start with the conclusion:
Currently, SanDisk's decline is more due to "expectations being too high" rather than "the industry crashing."
There is currently no obvious overcapacity in the storage industry; instead, storage related to AI servers remains tight.
Why did the performance exceed expectations and then fall?
The capital market is looking at:
Future expectations > Current performance
SanDisk's earnings report is actually very strong:
* Revenue exceeded expectations
* AI data center revenue surged
* Profits exceeded expectations
* Long-term orders continue to increase
But the market still sells down, mainly because:
1. The stock price rose too much in advance
Since 2026, SanDisk's price has multiplied several times.
Many institutions follow the following logic:
It's not about whether you're good or not, but whether you're better than expected.
Results:
* Good financial reports
* But not "especially explosive"
So the funds took profits.
2. The guidance did not meet the most optimistic expectations
The market originally expected:
* NAND continues to skyrocket in price
* Gross margin continued to improve
However, the company's guidance for the future is rather conservative:
* Revenue forecasts are slightly below some Wall Street expectations
* Gross margin growth began to slow
So the market interpretation is:
The craziest times might be passing soon.
3. The overall valuation of the AI sector began to shrink
Recently, not only has SanDisk fallen:
* Western Digital declined
* $MU Decline
* $SKHYNIX Decline
This involves the entire storage sector being adjusted together.
It's more like:
Sector adjustment
Not a company collapse
So, is the storage already overloaded?
My judgment:
Consumer electronics NAND
It's somewhat close to supply-demand equilibrium.
Because:
* Limited growth in mobile phones
* Limited PC growth
This part is indeed not as strong as before.
AI server storage
Still tight at present.
Causes:
AI data centers require:
* SSD
* NAND
* HBM
* DRAM
Demand far exceeds traditional times.
SanDisk's management even stated:
The storage market may remain tight in supply for a long time to come.
The truly dangerous moment in the future
If you encounter the following:
1. Samsung expands production
2. Hynix expands production
3. Micron expands production
4. Large-scale volume increase in China's Changcun stock
Meanwhile, the growth rate of AI demand has slowed
So:
May enter again in 2027-2028:
Storage surplus→ prices plunged → cycles downward
This has happened repeatedly throughout the history of the storage industry.
However, based on current public information, institutions generally still believe supply will be tight in 2026-2027.
What is your view on SanDisk's stock price?
Short-term:
* May enter a valuation digestion period following the earnings report
* Continued oscillation or even a pullback of 10%-20% is normal
Medium to long term:
If demand for AI data centers continues to grow:
* SanDisk
* Micron
* Hynix
They are still among the beneficiaries of this round of AI infrastructure.
#AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? Major news has been released! Positive?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the non-farm payroll will be implemented, and US stocks are set to face a key decision
At 20:30 this Friday evening, the July nonfarm payroll report will be released. This is the most important employment data since the Federal Reserve's July meeting, and it will directly rewrite September rate expectations, affecting all assets in US stocks, Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies.
Previously, ADP's small nonfarm payroll data was clearly below expectations, giving the market an early warning as employment gradually cooled.
The three data scenarios correspond to the U.S. stock market trends
Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, and wages rise in tandem
Strong employment will delay rate cut expectations, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. High-valuation AI technology and storage sectors are under the heaviest pressure, while growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow blue chips are relatively resilient to declines, and the overall index shows divergence.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises
The market will strengthen expectations for rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields will fall, which is positive for tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware have the opportunity to see a recovery and rebound. But one risk must be watched for: if the data is too poor, it could trigger market concerns about an economic recession, leading to a short-term broad drop.
Scenario 3: Data and expectations basically match
Employment cooled mildly, neither hot nor lukewarm. U.S. stocks continue the current tear-off pattern, with the Dow slightly strong, the Nasdaq oscillating at high levels, the market returning to earnings report logic, and sector rotation continues.
Putting aside nonfarm payrolls, the U.S. stock market will be the next outlook
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility following the financial report falsification. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the issue of downward expectations brought by the earnings report has not completely disappeared. Looking ahead, focus on whether the key support in MU can be held; holding it will mean sector differentiation and recovery; Once it effectively breaks below the threshold, the current round of storage will enter a mid-term valuation digestion phase. Don't treat the oversold rebound as a new main rally.
2. Structural market differentiation will continue to unfold. Stocks whose guidance exceeds expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; Even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally has ended, making stock selection more difficult.
3. Risk points cannot be ignored. $SPCX massive unlocking pressure remains, which will occasionally disturb the market and amplify the spike volatility.
Key Targets to Watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with Weakening Momentum and Capital Exits:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation in the observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity center in the crypto market, which determines the overall temperature of the market
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to build positions, gradually accumulating shares through volatility
$SOL — The elastic role of the Layer 1 sector, with considerable upside potential at market launch
$TAO & $WLD — AI remains hot and repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — A market speculative sentiment gauge used to assess current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail investor sentiment window, intuitively reflecting short-term speculative heatCutting interest rates does not necessarily mean BTC will rise.
One of the most common linear logics in the crypto market:
Fed rate cuts → improved liquidity → BTC rose.
But history doesn't go that way.
In 2019, the Federal Reserve cut rates three times in a row, and QT ended in August, but BTC actually peaked in June and then weakened steadily.
So what truly matters is never whether interest rates are cut, but rather:
Why is the Fed cutting rates?
If inflation falls and the economy remains healthy, a precautionary rate cut would naturally benefit risk assets.
But if rate cuts correspond to declining growth, credit contraction, and worsening risk appetite, then a rate cut cannot immediately offset fundamental pressure.
That's also why I think 2019 is highly valuable for the present.
There are several similarities between 2019 and the previous BTC top:
The Fed has entered the rate cut phase, QT is nearing its end, but BTC has peaked early; The market has not experienced a full-fledged altcoin season in the traditional sense; BTC Dominance has instead remained strong.
This illustrates one thing:
A shift toward monetary policy easing can happen during a Bitcoin bear market.
Even when the Fed starts cutting rates, the market may not have finished its final clearing.
$BTC $ETH
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#黄金4200美元拉锯, why hasn't BTC risen in tandem? $USDC #Circle #USDC #稳定币 #机器经济 Circle's latest financial report reveals a set of extremely abnormal data. During Q2, USDC's on-chain trading volume surged to $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% year-on-year; However, during the same cycle, the total circulating supply of USDC increased by only 19%. Trading volume surged 151%, while circulating supply only increased by 19%. This huge gap means USDC's currency turnover rate has exploded completely. It has moved beyond the speculative market fluctuations of crypto asset cycles and is used by traditional giants like Bank of New York and BlackRock as the underlying artery for institutional clearing and cross-border settlement. But this is only the short-term surface logic; the real endgame narrative is the machine economy. In the future, the internet is shifting from serving people to serving machines. Billions of physical devices and hundreds of millions of AI agents operate automatically around the clock, purchasing computing power and exchanging resources, generating massive micropayments every second. Machines cannot open traditional bank accounts; the ACH account opening process is complicated, and the 2-3% credit card transaction fee directly paralyzes the machine economy at its root. Machine algorithms control budgets and require absolutely stable pricing targets. BTC and ETH have huge price fluctuations and are not suitable for such settlement tasks. Under the zero trust architecture, configuring native smart contract wallets for each AI Agent and relying on USDC to complete millisecond-level, frictionless micropayments is currently the most feasible engineering solution. 💡 Market Thinking PerspectiveI remember seeing an interview with CZ last year (or even earlier), where he mentioned that 2026 would kick off a crypto super cycle. At the time, I thought it was a bit far-fetched, but then I reconsidered—after all, he’s selling shovels and has always said to focus on building the ecosystem, not speculating on coins.
These days, I came across an interview with Grantham again, and it really struck a chord.
He once said:
"Those who tell the truth often don’t live to see the crash day."
Since 1929, 1972, 2000... Wall Street has experienced countless bubbles, but almost no major institution openly tells clients: "Get out of the market."
It’s not that they don’t see it, but their entire business model makes it very difficult to say that.
Grantham once conducted a survey at an analyst conference: about 400 professional analysts were present, and 99% believed the market would eventually enter a bear market. But none of their companies publicly expressed this view.
The reason is very practical.
If you warn about risks too early and the market keeps rising, clients will leave you first, not the market.
He himself experienced this: because he was bearish more than two years in advance, his business was almost halved.
Keynes’ saying might be the best summary of this phenomenon:
"You can be wrong with everyone, but never be right alone."
Then I think about AI.
Grantham said it’s one of the biggest bubbles in history, while Jensen Huang says there’s no bubble in computing power and demand is far from reaching its limit.
I don’t think Jensen Huang is lying.
It’s just that from his position, it’s almost impossible to say otherwise.
NVIDIA’s valuation, clients, capital expenditures, and the entire industry chain are all based on the premise that this computing power race will continue.
So many times, a person’s viewpoint is not just cognition but also identity.
Looking back at myself these past two years, I do feel a bit like a big fool.
Constantly warning about risks, constantly writing that cash is king.
Personally, I did avoid many big pitfalls, and my assets not only didn’t shrink but actually grew.
But externally, the feeling is not as good as during the 2022 bear market when everyone lost, retraced, and endured together.
Because during a downturn, warning about risks is called professionalism. During an upturn, warning about risks is only understood as missing out, being timid, or bearish.
If you’re right early but the market doesn’t fall, you’re wrong. When the market really falls, most people won’t remember you warned them; they might regret not listening to me back then.
But the fact has happened, and they can only be busy dealing with their losses, mindset, and the various problems reality throws at them.
Still stuck but persisting requires faith, searching everywhere for useful market information to recharge oneself. Looking back at my "cash is king" stance probably feels even more uncomfortable psychologically.
More realistically, those truly willing to listen to risk warnings don’t need you to repeat them. Those who won’t listen won’t change their positions no matter what you say.
In the end, you bear the pressure of expressing risk, while others continue to enjoy the rising market sentiment.
Now I realize that publicly warning about risks long-term is a very low cost-performance, even somewhat thankless task.
Shovel sellers must talk about super cycles, chip holders must remain optimistic long-term, and platforms that make money from trading volume can’t advise users to exit.
Only those without vested interests can say unpleasant truths.
But the problem is, truth-tellers have no commercial rewards and instead must endure ridicule, doubt, and pressure when the market keeps rising.
I guess this is the first and last time I’ll do this.
From now on, it’s an eternal bull market.
The answer is to hold long-term, the answer is to be optimistic long-term.
Find ways to collect some management fees, earn some commissions, and provide emotional value to everyone along the way.
Win hearts and profits.
Isn’t that beautiful? Isn’t that joyful? 非农前夜，别被盘中插针骗走筹码
很多人会陷入一个误区：把非农当成“开盲盒赌方向”。
实际上非农只是催化剂，它不会凭空创造一轮大行情，更多是把已经积攒的多空力量一次性释放出来。
回顾最近盘面，不管美股还是加密，已经明显进入分歧阶段。
美股存储板块上演“财报利空→砸盘→暴力V反”的过山车；币圈大盘横盘震荡，只有局部币种轮动狂欢，大量山寨依旧躺平不动。
增量资金没有大规模进场，存量资金来回博弈，这就是当下最真实的现状。
北京时间明晚20:30非农落地，市场会面对三种结局：
1、就业数据大幅走强
降息预期再度延后，美债收益率抬升。高估值成长股、AI硬件、加密货币会第一时间承压。但要分清：短期打压不等于趋势反转，急跌之后往往伴随虚假插针。
2、就业数据明显走弱
降息预期被点燃，风险资产理论上迎来利好。但这里藏着最大陷阱：如果数据差到超出限度，市场会开始交易“经济衰退”，反而出现利好落地直接跳水的行情。好数据不一定涨，坏数据不一定跌，这是非农最容易坑人的地方。
3、数据落在预期区间，不冷也不热
这也是概率最高的剧本。非农掀不起大波澜，行情重新交还财报与板块轮动。美股继续分化，存储看关键支撑；币圈依旧是BTC定基调，局部山寨轮动。
给普通交易者的现实忠告
①不要拿大仓位去博弈数据公布那一瞬间，前几十分钟绝大多数行情都是插针诱多诱空，真假难辨。耐心等15‑30分钟，等市场消化完噪音，真实方向才会浮现。
②不要把短期数据波动，当成中长期趋势改变。一个月的就业报告，改写不了大周期。
③当下选股＞选大盘。就算指数不动，部分主线依旧会跑出行情；反之就算指数反弹，很多弱势品种依旧跑不赢。
个人盘面思考：
🥇 $BTC — 把控全市场流动性，决定盘面整体做多氛围
🏧 $ETH — 筹码在不断沉淀，走稳步蓄力的格局
🚀 $SOL — Layer1赛道高弹性代表，行情来临时爆发力十足
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI故事持续发酵，反复获得资金关照
📊 $HYPE — 用来观测市场整体的风险承受意愿
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — 直观映照散户群体的多空情绪
💵资金热度集中的进攻方向：
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸美股重点跟踪观察：
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉资金退潮，上涨势能耗尽标的：
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎等待信号确认备选池：
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS$BTC # Storage stocks plunge after earnings, but is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Major storage companies delivered record-breaking financial reports, but their stock prices collectively plunged. The essence is not a collapse in AI memory demand, but rather a case of **profit-fulfilling under high expectations and a battle between bulls and bears**. Earlier, stock prices had fully priced in the benefits of HBM price increases and AI computing power expansion. The market was no longer satisfied with year-on-year earnings growth and began trading "whether profits could continue to exceed expectations." Once guidance shifted conservatively, funds would choose to cash in.
Short-term risks are clear: major manufacturers are accelerating HBM capacity expansion, supplier landscape is becoming more diversified, and ultra-high gross margins are difficult to sustain permanently; Cloud vendors' capital expenditures are marginally narrowing, consumer storage demand remains weak, and the price increase slope has clearly slowed. At the same time, the rise of domestic storage power is reshaping the global supply landscape and intensifying market concerns about future supply and demand.
However, the underlying logic of medium- to long-term AI memory has not been completely broken. AI training and inference continue to drive rigid demand for HBM, leading cloud providers remain full of long-term lock-in orders, and advanced HBM yield bottlenecks are constraining supply release rhythms. This round feels more like a valuation correction midway through a supercycle rather than a direct end to the bull market. Going forward, focus will be on tracking HBM quotes and cloud vendor capital expenditure guidance, distinguishing between short-term stock price fluctuations and real industry prosperity. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market stable? Storage stocks plunged collectively after earnings reports—is the AI memory bull market still stable?
After several storage manufacturers released their earnings reports, their stock prices generally pulled back.
Many people have begun to worry:
Has the AI memory bull market already ended?
My view is:
In the short term, the market adjusts valuations; In the long term, the market tests fundamentals.
The two are not the same thing.
Why did the stock price fall despite good performance?
High-growth industries are most likely to encounter the following situations:
It's not that the company is bad, but that market expectations are too high.
Over the past year, the AI industry chain has seen huge gains, and the market has already priced in its growth expectations for the coming years.
Therefore, financial reports should not only be "good," but also better than expected.
As long as growth slows slightly, or management's future guidance is not as optimistic as the market imagines, it is easy to see "positive news realized and stock prices falling."
This is more about valuation digestion and does not necessarily mean that an industry turning point has already appeared.
Has the core logic of AI memory changed?
At present, I don't think so.
Several core factors supporting this round of AI memory market still remain:
• Global cloud vendors' capital expenditures remain at relatively high levels;
• The demand for AI training and inference continues to grow, with strong demand for high-performance storage such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM);
• Data center construction and server upgrades are still underway;
• Industry supply remains relatively concentrated, with leading manufacturers possessing strong technological and product advantages.
These long-term logics have not fundamentally changed just because of a single financial report.
What really needs to be addressed?
Compared to short-term stock prices, I focus more on three issues:
First, have orders slowed down?
If AI-related orders continue to grow in the coming quarters, it indicates that demand has not fundamentally changed.
Second, will capital expenditure continue to increase?
AI investment plans by major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Google reflect industry prosperity better than individual quarterly earnings reports.
Third, are product prices and profitability stable?
If high-end storage products still have strong pricing power, the industry boom cycle is likely to continue.
What is the short-term outlook?
In the short term, the storage sector may still be affected by:
• Profit-taking;
• High valuation corrections;
• Changes in market risk appetite;
and other factors, volatility may continue to increase.
However, if AI demand does not significantly cool down, this adjustment is more likely to represent a valuation recovery rather than a reversal of industry trends.
A post-earnings decline does not necessarily mean the end of the AI memory bull market; it may more likely indicate the market is shifting from "expectation-driven" to "earnings deliveries." What will determine the sector's future trend is not short-term sentiment, but whether AI demand can continue to grow, whether cloud vendors' capital expenditures will continue to expand, and whether corporate profits can be continuously realized. $BTC #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market stable? $ADA Current price fluctuations are mainly driven by expectations of compliant spot ETPs. CME's ADA futures will meet the key threshold of six consecutive months of trading on August 9, combined with Grayscale's submitted Trust ETF application, promoting early positioning of gaming funds. Concentrated long positions have improved risk appetite in the short term, but caution is warranted regarding the risk of profit-taking distributions before event nodes occur. If there is no sustained spot buying after August 9 and derivatives holdings turn downward, this round of expectation drive has temporarily come to an end.
#闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorizations #西联稳定币卡落地, Visa payment scenarios advance further #联储鹰派信号升温—can weak employment outpace inflation?1. Tonight's Nonfarm Payroll Data Forecast Summary Market Mainstream Expectations: Nonfarm payrolls in July increased by 83,000 (previous value 57,000), unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose +0.3% month-on-month and +3.5% year-on-year. A Dow Jones survey shows economists on average expect an increase of 83,000, while Reuters predicted 80,000. Institutional divisions are obvious: · Bloomberg (released 9 hours before the data release): Expected new job count of only 65,000, unemployment rate 4.3% · Bank of America: about 80,000 people · Vanguard Group: Based on pension data, only 18,000 people. Leading indicators are weak: ADP's "Small Nonfarm" shows that only 44,000 jobs were added in the private sector in July (expected 75,000); the ISM services employment index fell from 51.2 to 47.4, returning to contraction territory. Goldman Sachs also pointed out historical patterns: in recent years, July nonfarm payrolls have often been below expectations, and previous values tend to be sharply revised downward. 2. Three scenarios where data impacts the crypto market. Crypto assets are high-beta risk assets, with prices closely following US growth stocks but experiencing greater volatility. Currently, BTC is trading sideways near $64,000, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. 📉 Scenario 1: Weak data (60,000 new ≤, unemployment rising to 4.3%+) Weak employment will strengthen expectations of rate cuts, weaken the dollar, and push U.S. Treasury yields down. BTC is expected to test upward between $65,000 and $65,500. Similar weak data last week helped Bitcoin rebound to $64,000. But caution is needed: if the market directly trades in a "recession,"14倍销毁，$SOL怎么反而跌了？
14倍销毁！
每天最多烧掉65万美元！
这个标题一出来，不少人已经开始喊$SOL要“通缩起飞”了。
但市场没那么好骗。
$SOL现价约72.36美元，24小时反而下跌2.16%。原因很简单：大家交易的是“已经发生”，而这件事目前只是提案。
真实数据是：
新方案拟把每天销毁量从约650枚SOL，提高到7,500—9,000枚；同时加快降低通胀，预计未来六年减少约1,890万枚新增发行。
听起来确实猛。
可Solana现在每天仍会新增约60,000枚SOL。就算按最高9,000枚销毁计算，也远没到真正通缩。
更关键的是，提案还需在8月18日前获得足够的验证者支持，之后才能进入正式投票。
币圈最贵的利好，往往不是假消息，而是把“可能发生”提前买成“已经落地”。
我不认为这件事没价值。
如果提案通过，链上活跃度又持续增长，$SOL的长期供给逻辑确实会改善。
但现在直接喊“通缩牛市”，多少有点替主力写出货文案了。
你觉得这是$SOL被低估的长期利好，还是又一轮熟悉的叙事炒作？#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
8.7今晚非农数据，最好空仓等方向，不要盲目押注$BTC $ETH 。
不是怂，是这数据根本没法押。
市场预期新增就业8到8.3万，失业率4.2%——看着还行对吧？但拆开看全是矛盾。初请失业金连降三周，裁员也在减少，一副"就业市场挺稳"的样子；可ADP才新增4.4万人，创年初以来最低，企业压根没在扩招。更关键的是劳动参与率掉到了61.5%，2021年3月以来最低。失业率没涨，不是因为岗位多，是因为找工作的人变少了。这4.2%的水分，美联储心里门清。
所以今晚真正影响市场的不是那个就业数字本身，而是就业+薪资+失业率会不会同时给通胀火上浇油。穆萨莱姆已经放话了，通胀持续高于目标的可能性在增加，他自己在最近一次FOMC上倾向加息。市场甚至开始讨论沃什9月加息的可能。这不是鸽派转鹰的问题，是鹰派已经坐在桌子上了。
更麻烦的是，沃什正在削弱前瞻性指引，以后别指望美联储给你喂饭了，市场得自己猜政策反应函数。戴蒙倒是支持改革，但他同时敲了警钟——主经纪商、对冲基金、ETF、国债套利，这些渠道的杠杆现在堆得有多高，你心里没数吗？政策沟通少了，杠杆又这么高，利率预期稍微一动，资产价格的传导速度会快得你反应不过来。
企业端也在承压。Alphabet刚要发250亿债券，Tesla还在德州砸钱建TeraFab，AI基建这头吞金兽根本停不下来。但另一边，刚果（金）禁了铜精矿和钴精矿出口，霍尔木兹海峡的风险也没消停，能源和原材料的供应约束只会把建设成本再往上顶。全球资本市场现在面对的不是单一的利率问题，是资金成本、能源成本、原材料成本三条线同时勒紧。
对加密市场来说，这种环境下比特币就是高波动性的流动性探测器。美元流动性、长端收益率、全球风险偏好，任何一个变量抖动，BTC都会先抖。如果今晚非农叠加后续通胀数据重新强化加息预期，市场承受的压力不会只是政策利率那25个基点，而是整个无风险利率和融资成本的重新定价；只有就业和通胀同步降温，风险资产才能喘口气。
所以今晚别赌。数据出来之前，空仓等方向，看美联储的反应函数怎么变，看美元和长端收益率怎么动，看清楚再下手。在这种级别的政策不确定性面前，"错过"不可怕，"押错"才致命。$SUI has remained relatively sluggish despite continued ecosystem development. While institutional adoption continues to expand, it remains unclear whether the network can break beyond its current niche and attract broader retail participation. Recent partnerships and infrastructure upgrades reinforce its long-term potential, but price performance has yet to fully reflect those developments.
A key concern remains tokenomics. $SUI still faces recurring monthly token unlocks, adding steady supply pressure at a time when revenue growth has not kept pace. That combination keeps the risk-reward profile elevated, especially if market liquidity becomes more selective.
The broader crypto market continues to favor quality over quantity. Liquidity is concentrating around major assets such as $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL, while AI- and infrastructure-related narratives remain among the strongest sectors. Many mid-cap altcoins are still struggling to attract sustained capital inflows, making disciplined position management increasingly important.
If the current rebound extends, reducing part of a $SUI position could be a reasonable risk-management approach rather than assuming an immediate trend reversal.
Another asset worth monitoring is $LDO. Ongoing governance discussions and the proposed token buyback could become meaningful catalysts if approved, making it one of the more interesting DeFi governance tokens to watch.
New observations and market findings will be shared periodically. Constructive discussion is always welcome.
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, pressure to invest in AI is intensifying
Don't be misled by clickbait like "Google is short on money."
Alphabet has hundreds of billions in cash on its books and is not short of that 25 billion. It insists on issuing bonds and even promises to issue them every six months in the future—a signal far more powerful than the numbers themselves: even the giants believe the AI arms race is a 10-year money-burning scheme, using low-cost bonds to lock in long-term ammunition without consuming equity.
My opinion is straightforward:
• This is not AI narrative falsification; AI is entering a "debt-driven period." Going forward, Oracle, Amazon, and Meta will all do this, and the flood of tech bond supply will continue to push long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher.
• Short-term bearish for crypto, long-term bullish bias—don't be negative. Short-term: Institutional funds are being absorbed by investment-grade tech bonds, risk-free returns are high, BTC/ETH valuations are under pressure, and while US stocks rise, they are likely to fall. Long-term: The larger the AI capex→ the sooner commercialization falls short of expectations someday → Credit bubble bursts → Fed forced to print money to rescue → Bitcoin completes the closed loop Arthur Hayes called "AI credit bubble →monetized rescue," which actually fuels the million-dollar narrative.
• Don't speculate on BTC as an AI concept stock now. Right now, it's a "high-beta risk asset," not an "AI beneficiary coin"; Only when the bubble bursts and liquidity is repriced will BTC's scarcity be revalued. ETH is stuck in the middle in an awkward position—following tech risk appetite while carrying its own expansion burden.
Google's debt = AI bubble is still inflating and not yet bursting; The crypto market should first withstand interest rate suppression, don't gamble with full leverage to take off immediately, and wait for the "bubble bursts → liquidity release" phase to be the real gain.#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Western Digital $WDC and SanDisk $SNDK actually reported decent earnings; the drop is due to expectations, not performance. The market had hyped AI storage too much, so as long as guidance doesn't continue to exceed expectations, funds will exit first.
NVIDIA $NVDA is even considering reducing some HBM configurations, which actually makes me think demand is genuinely strong; otherwise, they wouldn't adjust plans due to shortages.
I tend to believe this isn't an industry problem but the market starting to deflate a bubble. Previously, just mentioning AI would cause prices to rise; now it's about who can truly deliver orders and profits.
So I won't be bearish on AI storage just because of a temporary sharp drop. What will determine the market is whether HBM supply can keep up in the coming quarters and whether AI server shipments can continue to grow.
In short, the story-driven phase is almost over, and the performance-driven phase is just beginning.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice! Trading volume was the market's magic mirror last time—no matter how much the breadth flipped, a volume of -96.9% was a paper tiger. Today, the magic mirror flipped: total market trading volume jumped from -67.8% to -42.6% in one go, marking the first proper "recovery" in a week. The ice is melting; this is a real signal, not an illusion.
Macro tone: BTC is still squatting at $64,428, down 0.62% in 24 hours, neither alive nor dead. But the funding rate quietly jumped from +0.0025% to +0.0040%, with OI steady at 105,500 BTC—bulls are starting to pay dividends, though just a little, and the tone is different from last week's "short squeeze grouping."
The contradiction in capital flows is wide: OKX rose 7 times and fell 8 times this hour, slightly bearish. Volume has returned, but the daring buyers haven't come back yet.
The battle between volume and breadth is the most typical divergence pattern at the bottom—only when no one agrees is it a bottom.
Counterfeit Divide: OKX 24h Leader $BICO +41.82%, $AEON Falls Down -2.78% (Last week's 19-hour zombie pump finally died out).
The strong stay strong, the weak compensate for the decline; money is drawn to coins with narratives, not a broad rise.
Real review: My own $BICO long position is now +7.97%, the only live trading still in the red this round.
My framework is just one thing: volume recovery + funding turning is a sign of "no fall"; "To rise" requires a broad red-light (9 gains, 6 losses or more) to confirm.
Volume moves first, breadth moves later; if the order is wrong, it induces bullishness.
Don't let the -42.6% slump cloud your judgment. Fear is still stuck at 29, Wintermute is holding a US brokerage license, MARA is dragged down by losses from BTC crash—the regular players are quietly laying the groundwork.
Guys, are you following this wave? A: Buy the bottom with volume B, wait until the breadth hasn't rebounded, C: Go short, type the letter in the comments, use you as a reverse indicator (manual doghead).
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $BICO $AEON #OKX星球 #市场分析 #行情速递 #BTC行情 #资金流向$ETH 都在等非农呢，聊聊我的看法！
1900这个关口有多硬挺相信大家都看得到！想做波段那就空，但在晚间8.30前必须出局。
做空的理由很简单，都在等晚间非农数据公布后再选择进场，买盘量必然会减少！且目前预期就是超过前值。
甚至会出现这种可能，买盘减少造成场内恐慌，带动空单情绪来波回调！按捺不住的清仓空！先看到1890上方一点！寻求稳健得等数据公布#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $RE Not an investment, but a voting right certificate for the project team.
No matter how powerful the protocol is, it has nothing to do with $RE holders. Truly smart money buys reUSD/reUSDe for real returns, leaving $RE for those who still believe "governance = value."
$RE is the most typical **'governance coin scam template' for 2026—the project's reinsurance business may still be reliable, but the $RE token is almost pure air**, with holders having nothing but voting rights and bearing huge unlocking pressure.
The official statement clearly states: $RE has no rights over protocol income, premiums, reserves, collateral, or profits. reUSD and reUSDe receive real returns, $RE holders can only "vote." This is not governance; it is openly and legally allowing retail investors to support projects while receiving no money themselves.
The total supply is 1 billion, with only about 159.6 million (16%) in circulation during TGE, and the remaining 84% will be unlocked in many years. The massive unlock from teams, investors, and ecosystem funds is yet to come. The current price has already been halved again and again from its peak. When the next unlock comes, are the buyers ready?
Projects hype up reinsurance, RWA, and real returns, but the real profits are stablecoin deposit products, which have little to do with $RE. Buying $RE is like supporting someone else's business, while you yourself don't get dividends. The classic "good project, trash token."
Reinsurance itself carries catastrophe risks, underwriting model risks, counterparty default risks, and regulatory risks. Packaging these as "on-chain" and adding a valueless governance token essentially packages high-risk traditional financial products as crypto narratives to harvest.
After launch, it surged quickly and then dropped sharply, with liquidity maintained by exchange incentives and sentiment. Once incentives end and unlocking begins, the rest will be a long period of market decline. Fed Cook's hawkish stance: If inflation stalls, rate hikes may be supported
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that if the pace of inflation slows down, she is prepared to support further rate hikes. The market view is bearish for crypto assets, with the core impact being that expectations for US dollar interest rates are tightening again, putting liquidity discount pressure on BTC, ETH, and high-beta altcoins. This is not news from a single token but rather a resurgence of macro risks: if CPI and PCE continue to be strong, funds will be more cautious about chasing risk assets. In the short term, the focus is on whether US Treasury yields and the US dollar index continue to rise; if both strengthen simultaneously, the crypto market rebound may be easily suppressed.
Source: Cointelegraph
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100W$SNDK Delivered a 372% year-on-year revenue growth and an 84.6% gross margin, but after hours, it dropped nearly 14% and closed down 6.81%. The more you earn, the harder you sell.
Western Digital fell over 13%, SK Hynix dropped nearly 5%, and the entire memory industry chain collectively pulled back on the same trading day. The magnitude of sector linkage shows that this is not a problem for a single company, but rather a type of pricing logic being recalibrated.
The trigger was that SanDisk's revenue guidance for the next quarter failed to meet the market's most optimistic forecast. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is evaluating adjustments to the HBM configuration of its next-generation Rubin Ultra platform, and the tight supply of high-end storage is shifting from a positive factor to a variable limiting downstream shipment pace.
When these two factors overlap, the transmission path becomes clear: when profit margins rise from 50% all the way up to over 80%, the market's demand is no longer continued growth, but that the growth slope must not slow down. Once guidance suggests expansion speed is near the ceiling, funds will cash out before the industry cycle turning point. Historically, growth stocks often peak not because profits decline, but because margins stop expanding, and storage stocks are now reaching this sensitive point.
If tonight's nonfarm payroll data is significantly weaker than expected, the heated rate cut trading could create a technical rebound window for oversold, highly elastic stocks, and stocks with crowded short positions will face short-term squeeze pressure.
Conversely, if employment data is strong and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, liquidity in high-valuation growth sectors will tighten further. Storage stocks have already fallen at their best earnings, and once interest rate expectations turn hawkish, the room for further losses is greater than most people anticipated.
There is only one signal that invalidates current judgments: SanDisk or Micron will clearly raise their full-year profit margin guidance in subsequent communications and provide timelines for easing HBM capacity bottlenecks. Before this, each rebound feels more like a correction within a trend.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls mark a watershed moment for the storage sector's short-term direction, and this data point is worth watching.
#伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻, oil price risks heat up again. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #财报观察员: After the ban is lifted, prices rebounded—what is SpaceX's outlook on the future? 这几天群里、推上全在刷：美联储 9 月是不是必加息？ 我直说——不是必加，但你要是还按去年那套“马上降息、流动性大放水”来梭哈，那就是自己往枪口上撞。 先看盘口，别看情绪。 现在联邦基金利率还在 3.5%–3.75%。7 月会议按兵不动，但内部已经有人当场想加。市场对 9 月 16 日 那次会的定价，大致就在 加 25 个基点五成出头、不动四五成 这个区间晃。预测市场更狠，几乎是硬币。 翻译成人话： 没人能跟你保证一定加，但也没人敢跟你保证稳稳不动。降息？基本没进讨论区。 为啥预期拧成这样？三条线： 1. 油价和地缘，把通胀又从后门塞回来了。 中东一闹，能源往上顶。美联储最烦“暂时性冲击”变成“二轮传导”。新主席沃什对 2% 目标较真，油价等于帮他写鹰派剧本。 2. 美联储内部不齐心，点阵图已经往“年内可能加一码”偏。 以前市场还在掰“今年能不能再降一点”，现在主流叙事变成：别想宽松，顶多是加一码还是再拖一拖。 3. 风险资产最怕的不是加息那一下，是预期从松拧成紧。 这个过程，往往比决议日当天更疼。 那加密会怎么承压？ 我自己的框架很糙，但好用： BTC 短期就是高 bA Bitcoin that has been dormant for fifteen years has just moved its home, but the market's first question is not "who is selling," but "which path it plans to exit from." $BICO $BTC Recently, a Bitcoin wallet that has been inactive since 2011 transferred about $3.2 million in assets, with the destination pointing to an address associated with FalconX. The awakening of ancient coin holders is usually enough to keep traders focused on the market: if the old coin moves, will selling pressure follow? This time, don't rush to find excuses for the candlesticks. So far, only this batch of funds has left the dormant wallet and entered an address path linked to FalconX. It does not prove that the coin has been sold, let alone short or any clear directional bet. But the market shouldn't treat it as a trivial wallet migration: when long-term self-custody assets begin to approach institutional service networks, the first thing to change is often not the price, but the transaction environment, recognizability, and liquidity arrangements of the money. On-chain "moves" and assets "ready for trading," with a long road between them. A single transfer turns historical inventory into an active variable A long-dormant wallet means assets haven't been traded, mortgaged, lent, or settled across platforms for years. It is like a piece of inventory buried outside the supply curve: whether holders still hold private keys, whether they are willing to use them, and when they will return to circulation, are unknown to outsiders. Now, this wallet has transferred about $3.2 million worth of Bitcoin, and the funds have moved to a FalconX-linked address#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
It's ridiculous to say: Western Digital posted Q4 revenue of $3.747 billion in fiscal year 2026, up 44% year-on-year, with net profit doubling 12 times. Next quarter's revenue guidance also beat market expectations, but after hours, it plunged 11% and closed down 13.03% today. SanDisk is even worse, pulling out a $14 billion buyback move and still closing down 6.81%. So now, storage stocks are falling whether earnings are good or bad, with retail investors taking the blame, right?
Many people are now panicking, asking everywhere if the AI storage bull market is over, and the comment sections are flooded with people shouting "the cycle has peaked" and are ready to clear their positions and run away. To be honest, this drop is not fundamentals collapsing; it's simply because the previous rally was too wild, expectations were too high, and no matter how good the performance was, it couldn't cover the overdrawn valuation.
If you do the math, Western Digital has risen more than 200% this year, and in the past year, it has doubled sixfold. Every positive AI storage boost you can think of has already been priced into the stock price. Right now, the whole market is crammed into this track, with positions piled up like crazy. At the slightest sign of trouble, everyone jumps in and the price drops hard when they stamp on it. This isn't even the first pullback in this wave; previous pullbacks always started at just over ten points, so it's really not a case of the sky falling.
Now, let's talk about whether the core logic has changed. I've reviewed the original earnings reports from several major companies over the past few days to break through some solid data. Don't listen to those blind talkers about a crash to stir up trouble.
First, demand is real and unmistakable, not just empty talk. Samsung's just-released Q2 financial report showed operating profit doubling 18 times year-on-year. Management explicitly stated in a conference call that HBM4 sales in Q3 will increase more than threefold quarter-on-quarter, and HBM4 will account for over 60% of total HBM revenue in the second half of the year. Leading AI companies are now frantically competing for capacity, proactively signing five-year long-term contracts. Samsung has allocated 60%-70% of its storage capacity to long-term contract customers, and even predicts that the storage supply shortage will continue until 2028.
Don't just focus on HBM—with the explosion of AI inference and the rollout of agents, the increase in memory for ordinary servers is significant. The memory capacity of an AI server is more than ten times that of traditional servers—this structural change can't be achieved in just a quarter or two.
On the supply side, it's even more obvious—memory chip expansion cycles are set in two to three years, so it's not something you can just add by increasing capacity. Micron's latest data shows that DRAM inventory days are now less than 120 days, an extremely low in history; SK Hynix is even more outrageous, with inventory down to just 4 weeks, basically shipped out as soon as production is produced, leaving no room for inventory backlog. Moreover, OEMs are now shifting capacity toward high-margin AI storage, while standard model capacity is shrinking, and overall supply and demand remain tightly balanced. Micron itself has stated that the tight supply-demand situation will only last until after 2027, with some possibility of easing in 2028.
The real market disagreement now isn't about "whether there's demand for AI memory," but whether "the period when prices rose the most and valuations surged fastest has passed."
I agree with that. Previously, it was a phase of speculative expectations, with chickens and dogs rising to the top, and anyone with a bit of storage concept could fly; Next, it will definitely enter the stage of earnings realization. Companies without technology, no production capacity, and just chasing hot topics will sooner or later be reverted to their original state, and only the truly leading companies can slowly digest valuations through their earnings.
Let me share my own plan: in the short term, I won't blindly increase positions. I'll wait and see if it stabilizes, and for the long term, I'll just hold onto my position without moving it.
The essence of this wave in storage is a structural market driven by AI, completely different from the previous cycle logic of following consumer electronics. It's not easy to end it. There's no need to shout about being bullish every time it drops, nor to think it can soar just because it rises. Just focus on the two core indicators of supply, demand, and production capacity, and don't let intraday price fluctuations disrupt the rhythm.
$SNDK $ETH The most interesting thing now isn't whether it will go up, but that "someone has already started secretly buying it, but the price hasn't given an answer yet."
Currently, $ETH is around $1,900, and on August 6, the U.S. spot ETH ETF recorded a net inflow of about $92.15 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows. What's even more interesting is that ETH hasn't taken off directly with inflows recently, but has instead been grinding around the 1800 to 1900 range.
So my judgment on $ETH now is actually quite simple: $1900 is not the end, but a watershed point.
In the short term, first check whether the 1890–1900 USD range can truly hold; once it holds steady, the next step is to look at 1920–1960 USD; If it can't even hold above 1900 repeatedly, don't rush to call for a reversal. The first key support below $1828 is the first key level, and below that is the $1800 rounder level. Recently, ETH itself has been compressing and oscillating around 1828–1890, and the market is waiting for directional selection.
But what I really care about is the continuous inflow of ETF funds, not a sudden surge of money in a single day. In July, ETH spot ETFs also saw a net increase in funds, and institutions' allocation logic to ETH is gradually changing. Meanwhile, ETH's stake-to-hold ratio has already exceeded 34%, meaning the market is not as much leverage as people might imagine that can be sold at any time.
So if I were to make a judgment about ETH now:
💎 Holding near 1800, the structure remains;
⚔️ 1900 Holds Firm and Starts Getting Interesting;
🚀 Only after breaking through 1960 can the short-term trend truly be reversed;
🔥 Only after 2000 can market sentiment clearly change once it stabilizes.
I'm actually not too worried about ETH being slow right now.
What is truly frightening is that prices soar rapidly but no one buys ETFs.
Now it's quite the opposite—money has started to come back, but prices are still playing dead.
This is the most noteworthy aspect of ETH going forward.😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? I'm Ci Ge. Google also issued bonds, $25 billion, divided into 10 tiers, with terms ranging from 2 to 40 years, and subscription demand reaching $115 billion—a 4.6-fold increase.
This isn't Google's first time issuing debt, but the timing and scale of this debt are worth pondering. The 2026 capital expenditure forecast has been raised to $205 billion, and now another $25 billion has been added. What is the money for? The document says it is about AI infrastructure investment. DeepMind head Hassabis stepped down from daily operational responsibilities to become Chairman of DeepMind and Chief Scientist of Google's parent company. Google AI veteran Jeff Dean and several longtime colleagues founded the new company Discovery Loop. Personnel adjustments and bond issuance occurring on the same day indicate that the pace of the AI race is shifting.
The market divide is whether massive borrowing and organizational restructuring are seizing the AI infrastructure window, or is the AI race moving from technological competition to a new stage where capital consumption and talent competition run parallel? Google's credibility in the capital markets is beyond doubt, and the $115 billion subscription demand shows that the bond market is still paying attention to the long-term AI narrative. However, Alphabet previously faced pressure to match AI spending with cloud business growth, and the market remained wary of the return cycle of its massive AI investments. Moody's had previously placed Alphabet on its watch list for rating downgrade.
When a company is doing three things at once—sharply raising capital expenditures, issuing large bonds for financing, and adjusting core management—it shows this is not routine but a realignment of strategic priorities. Bond issuance and personnel adjustments indicate that capital investment and organizational structure are being adjusted simultaneously, and AI competition has shifted from a technical route dispute to a resource war of attrition. Whoever can keep burning money on computing infrastructure, who can gain an advantage in talent competition, will maintain the lead in the next phase.
This has limited impact on BTC but reinforces a long-term narrative: capital spending on AI infrastructure is accelerating, burning fiat credit and depleting the dollar's purchasing power. Google's $25 billion bond issuance is just the beginning; Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have more bond issuance plans to come. Every time a financing of this scale is launched, it reminds the market that the boundaries of dollar credit are continuously being stretched.
Transmission to the storage section is equally clear. Google's capital expenditure increase to 205 billion means data center expansion will not stop, and demand for enterprise-grade SSDs and HBM will not disappear just because SanDisk's guidance falls short of expectations. Short-term fluctuations in the storage sector are a correction of expectations, not a collapse in fundamentals. The rigid long-term demand for storage has once again been validated by Google's $25 billion debt issuance.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, the pressure to invest in AI is heating up $BTC $ETH $SNDK 😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Damn! This amazing AI memory story is already starting to leak!
No matter how explosive the financial reports are, it's useless. Western Digital and SanDisk have thrown revenue and profit to the skies, with gross margins ridiculously high, only to be crushed after hours. Asia is even worse: KOSPI was dragged down by semiconductors, SK Hynix crashed, and Samsung followed suit.
The market isn't about how much you've earned, but whether you can keep bragging. If you can't keep bragging, just smash it.
These people previously hyped the HBM shortage as a universal truth, causing the stock price to climb out of the ditch and multiply several times. Now the numbers are still rising, but their appetite has been fed up.
How many more quarters can these good times last? Is the shortage just the money printing machines of storage manufacturers, or the knives that are blocking downstream AI chip makers? NVIDIA is already considering cutting high-end memory configurations; if inventory is insufficient, shipments will have to be reduced. Upstream calls for full production, downstream redesigns—the double-edged sword of supply and demand is finally starting to strike both sides.
A KOL on X also said: If the guidance isn't strong enough, it's smashed; expectations are too high, valuations are just giving back, but underlying AI demand hasn't died yet. Others think: the blind-eyed, broad-surge phase is over; now it's just stock funds pecking at each other, leveraged products trampling, and underlying stocks spiral downward.
It's even more obvious in Korea: buying US stocks at night and selling Korean stocks in the morning, investors have already suffered psychological trauma from this memory crash. Some people break it down even further: SanDisk is relying on NAND and SSD, not the true HBM core; HBM is the real hot commodity, while pure DRAM and consumer-grade flash are showing signs of elasticity. Consumer SSD prices have doubled, and ordinary people are now saying they can't afford them. No matter how strong data centers are, they can't fill this gap.
Where's the money? US stocks have long been a stock market. Giants are shrinking their buybacks while issuing bonds for AI, while companies like SK Hynix and SpaceX are about to go public and draw blood, with bigger ones waiting ahead. Without new money to take over, trapped positions at high levels are extremely heavy. Want to hit new highs? When the signal of profit margins peaking, valuations are immediately compressed. Growth stocks never peak when profit margins turn point; they run away when profit margins start turning.
So now, stop staring at those few financial reports and getting carried away. The speed of HBM capacity expansion, cloud factory capital expenditure trends, and NVIDIA's actual shipments are the real indicators.
The amount of goods downstream produces determines how much upstream can profit. Pricing power is not in memory manufacturers' hands, but with AI chip manufacturers.BNY is about to engage in crypto staking, choosing Galaxy for infrastructure. The fact that traditional financial giants are rushing into custody + staking shows that institutions are increasingly recognizing on-chain yields. Once the door to compliance opens, stablecoins and mainstream assets benefit first. Note, this is staking on the custody layer, not your own private key for DeFi, so your risk preferences are completely different. $ETHNow that the bear market cycle has reached its peak, the old chips have actually quieted down
VDD Multiple doesn't look at ordinary trading volume, but rather at how long $BTC has been dormant before on-chain movement.
For the same BTC, selling after holding for 5 days and then reselling after 5 years is completely different. The longer you hold it, the older the destroyed coin, and the greater its reference value to the market.
Looking back at 2013-2014, 2017, 2021, and around 2024, VDD has risen above 2.9 in all years.
These highs may not correspond to BTC's highest price, but the underlying actions are quite similar: long-term holders begin to concentrate on transferring their chips, cashing in profits through market liquidity.
Therefore, high VDD is better suited for observing the cycle distribution and should not be used mechanically to escape the top.
The current situation is exactly the opposite.
VDD has fallen back to around 0.75, approaching the low price zone again. After BTC's significant correction, long-term holdings have not been continuously or concentrated.
Moreover, when BTC previously hit higher prices, VDD did not experience the extreme peaks seen in 2017 and 2021; prices rose higher, but the selling strength of old chips did not increase accordingly.
Now, it feels more like high-cost tokens have been cleared out, with long-term holders choosing to wait and see again, rather than the typical concentrated distribution at the top of the cycle.
However, a low VDD does not prove that a bottom has appeared.
It only shows that old chips are unwilling to sell, but it does not mean new buying has returned. If the market lacks liquidity, prices may continue to decline.
Next, I will observe two changes:
BTC is no longer hitting new lows, and VDD remains below 0.75. This indicates that selling pressure is shrinking, old chips are still locked, and the bottom structure will be more solid.
BTC rebounded, but VDD quickly broke above 1.5 and even re-entered above 2.9. This indicates that dormant chips are beginning to cash out on the rebound, and selling pressure may increase again.
So what I care about more now is not whether the old chips have been sold out.
It's about how long the market will adjust before new buying comes back when these chips are already unwilling to sell. Will you position early while the old chips are silent, or wait until the price reversal is confirmed before entering?#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
To start with the conclusion: this wave of storage is most likely nearing its end.
SanDisk and Western Digital both exceeded market expectations in earnings, but their stock prices collectively fell after the close hours. This sent a very clear signal: the market is no longer trading in performance, but on the future.
But it's important to note that ending doesn't mean an immediate crash. Institutional selling never goes all the way down with a single bearish candle; instead, it fluctuates downward, selling while pulling up. Each rebound is more like an opportunity for funds to realize profits, rather than a new starting point.
The core is simple: look at fundamentals at low points, look at capital at high levels.
Take Micron as an example: the cumulative trapped assets above correspond to floating losses exceeding $100 billion. To break historical highs, performance growth alone is far from enough; a continuous influx of new funds is needed. Without incremental capital, even the best fundamentals will struggle to drive valuation expansion.
And now, the biggest reality in US stocks is that liquidity is starting to tighten.
In recent years, tech giants have driven up stock prices through large-scale stock buybacks, but now the situation is changing. On one hand, buyback efforts have declined; On the other hand, to continue investing in AI infrastructure, more and more tech companies have begun issuing bonds to raise funds. Meanwhile, a batch of large IPOs are lining up to go public, continuously drawing market capital.
Funds do not increase out of thin air; they are only continuously reallocated.
Today it flows to AI, tomorrow it may go to IPOs, and the day after it could flow to other popular sectors. For the storage sector, which has already seen huge gains, the difficulty of continuing to attract incremental funds is clearly increasing.
It's not just Micron; Samsung and SK Hynix are facing similar problems. After two years of sharp gains, market holdings have become extremely crowded, institutions are profiting heavily, and further upward momentum increasingly depends on new capital rather than earnings itself.
More importantly, industry cycles are changing.
Storage companies' revenue and profits may continue to grow in the coming quarters, but what capital markets truly care about is whether profit margins can keep improving.
Historically, growth stocks have peaked not because profits have started to decline, but because profit margins have stopped expanding. Once the market believes profitability is close to its peak, even if earnings continue to hit new highs, valuations will be the first to enter a compression phase, and stock prices usually react several quarters ahead of the industry cycle.
This is also why, after SanDisk and Western Digital delivered earnings that exceeded expectations, the market still chose to sell. Not because the company was bad, but because it was already difficult to continue exceeding market expectations in the future.
Therefore, for the storage sector, there will still be a rebound in the future, but it should be understood more as a correction within the trend rather than a new main rally.
So, where will the funds go next?
My judgment is that the crypto market deserves special attention.
As high-prosperity sectors such as storage and AI hardware gradually enter the realization phase, market funds are likely to start seeking new highly elastic assets. If global liquidity marginally improves and expectations for Fed rate cuts heat up, BTC and ETH are likely to become key directions for the next phase of capital reallocation.
The market never lacks hotspots; it only keeps turning.
This year is AI and storage; the next phase may be BTC and ETH.
After all, the capital market has always been ruled by one saying: fortunes turn, and wherever capital flows, there are opportunities $BTC $ETH SPCX rebounded after unlocking. Why did the massive volume lift rise instead? 1. Negative news was realized early, with a sharp drop occurring the day before the lock-up. The real panic selling after the unlock-up was released a day earlier. On Wednesday, the single-day plunge was nearly -14%, with trading volume amplified and a large amount of panic and safe-haven funds fleeing early. By Thursday's official lifting of the ban, the market had already priced in "hundreds of billions in selling pressure," turning into selling expectations and buying facts. Negative news materializes, some short positions are being uncovered, forming a foundation for a rebound. 2. Not all 911 million shares were dumped on the market on the same day. A tiered unlocking rule is adopted, so you can't sell all at once: • Musk's 42% majority stake is locked up until 2027, with no participation in this unlock; • A large number of early-stage institutions and executives are constrained by the 10B5-1 trading plan and cannot be sold in a concentrated sale on the same day; • Many early investors unlocked their shares, but the stock price was already below the IPO price of $135. Some institutions chose to hold and wait, not rushing to cash out and exit. Unban = can be sold ≠ will definitely sell. 3. Forced buying by passive funds in the index (very crucial) After the lock-up was lifted, the circulating market expanded significantly, and the SPCX's weight in the Nasdaq 100 rose significantly. Index ETFs and passive funds had to passively add positions according to their weights to buy chips, providing strong buying pressure and offsetting some potential selling pressure. 4. Short positions are very high, indicating short squeeze force. Before the lock-up, short positions account for a high proportion of circulating shares, and the market unanimously plays on the risk of a crash after the lock-up. When there is no stampede and sharp drop, a large number of short sellers cover their losses, further driving the price reboundThe core logic of this news is: U.S. regulatory rules are being "forced to change" by market demand, and there are several main reasons behind this:
1. The crypto market has entered the era of 24-hour trading
In the past, the U.S. securities market had fixed trading hours, but the crypto market operated around the clock.
Traditional financial investors are increasingly doing so by:
BTC ETF
ETH ETF
Crypto funds
Trading platform
Participate in the digital asset market.
If the securities market continues to maintain fixed daily sessions, the following will occur:
Major news at night cannot be traded in time
Large price gaps occurred at the opening of European and American markets
Investor risk management is challenging
Therefore, extending trading hours is to adapt to market changes.
2. U.S. exchanges face competitive pressure from crypto trading platforms
Like:
Coinbase
Binance
OKX
These platforms offer 24-hour trading.
If traditional exchanges continue to restrict trading hours, it will:
Capital flows to round-the-clock trading platforms→ trading volume declines→ market influence diminishes.
Therefore, the U.S. securities market began to move toward an "all-weather financial market."
3. Institutional capital inflows drive rule changes
In the past, the crypto market was dominated by retail investors, but now a large number of institutions have entered the market:
ETF funds
Hedge funds
Asset management companies
Institutions require:
Higher liquidity
More continuous price discovery
More convenient risk hedging
Extending trading hours essentially provides institutional funds with a better trading environment.
4. What impact does it have on the crypto world?
Short-term:
Traditional funds have increased their participation time
Mainstream assets like BTC and ETH may strengthen their correlation with US stocks
Market volatility may be more continuous and it is less likely for large gaps to occur
Long-term:
Positive for the entire crypto industry:
Traditional financial systems are gradually embracing how the crypto market operates.
Possible future developments:
The stock market is increasingly resembling the crypto market (trading all day).
The crypto market is increasingly resembling traditional finance (with well-regulated regulations).
However, one thing to note:
This does not mean the U.S. is fully embracing cryptocurrency, but rather institutional adjustments made by capital markets for competition and efficiency.
For BTC and ETH, this is positive news, with limited impact on altcoins; the real beneficiaries are assets with strong liquidity and high institutional participation.今晚 20:30将公布美国 7 月非农就业数据（NFP）和失业率
市场预期：
- 非农就业人数（NFP）：预期增加 约 80k–100k
前值（6 月）：+57k（明显弱于预期，且有下修）
- 失业率：预期维持 4.2%（持平前值）
- 平均时薪：预计环比 +0.3% 左右，同比约 +3.5%。
当前劳动力市场处于“慢招慢裁”状态，整体仍有韧性，但增长已明显放缓。美联储更关注通胀粘性，而非单纯就业强弱。
三种可能：
✅ 符合预期 → 震荡消化
🚀 大幅超预期（>130k）→ 美元强、收益率升，BTC短线承压
📉 明显不及预期（<60k）→ 降息预期升温，风险偏好回升，BTC有反弹空间
波动必大，建议轻仓观望，重点看实际数值+失业率+薪资+修订。
数据一出市场立刻定价，稳住别追！🙂The "same class, different fate" of the top three storage giants: Micron is the top performer, SK Hynix at the bottom
According to monitoring by @HyperInsight_ZH (formerly Hyperinsight), in the past 30 days, all three top storage giants on Hyperliquid have declined, but the gap between strong and weak continues to widen: Micron (MU) fell 5.7% cumulatively, SanDisk (SNDK) fell 23.8%, and SK Hynix (SKHX) fell 31.8%.
Based on holdings data from some on-chain addresses, a relatively effective trading strategy this month may be the strength differential. Although MU also declined, it outperformed SNDK by about 18.1 percentage points and outperformed SKHX by about 26.1 percentage points.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound 北京时间明晚20:30非农落地，美股要迎来关键选择
本周五晚间20:30，7月非农就业报告即将出炉，这是美联储7月议息会议之后，最重要的一份就业数据，会直接改写9月利率预期，美股、美债、加密全部资产都会被牵动。
此前ADP小非农数据明显不及预期，已经提前给市场打了预防针，市场在博弈就业逐步降温。
三种数据情景对应的美股走向
情景一：非农大幅强于预期，薪资同步走高
就业火热，会推迟降息预期，美债收益率上行。高估值AI科技、存储板块承压最重，MU、SNDK这类成长标的容易遭遇抛压；道指价值蓝筹相对抗跌，整体指数会出现分化行情。
情景二：非农显著走弱，失业率抬升
市场会强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，利好科技成长股。存储、AI硬件有机会迎来修复反弹。但也要警惕一种风险：数据太差，会引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，造成短期普跌。
情景三：数据和预期基本吻合
就业温和降温，不冷不热。美股延续当前撕裂格局，道指偏强，纳指高位震荡，行情回归财报逻辑，板块内部继续轮动。
抛开非农，美股本身接下来的盘面判断
1、存储板块现在处于财报证伪后的剧烈震荡阶段。SNDK走出深V反转，但财报带来的预期下调问题没有彻底消失。后市重点盯MU关键支撑能不能守住，守住代表板块分化修复；一旦有效跌破，存储这一轮行情会进入中期估值消化，不要把超跌反弹直接当成新一轮主升浪。
2、市场结构性分化会持续上演。业绩指引超预期的标的会继续享受溢价；就算利润很高，但股东回报、未来指引保守的公司，会持续被资金抛弃。普涨行情已经结束，选股难度变大。
3、风险点依旧不能忽视，$SPCX巨额解禁压力还在，会时不时扰动盘面，放大盘中插针波动。
重点关注标的：
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
动能消退、资金离场品种：
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
等待信号确认观察池：
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
资金偏好的强势品种：
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
当下市场逻辑梳理：
$BTC — 加密市场流动性中枢，决定整体盘面的冷热程度
$ETH — 机构资金持续布局，依靠震荡慢慢沉淀筹码
$SOL — Layer1赛道的弹性担当，行情启动时上涨空间可观
$TAO & $WLD — AI主线热度持续，反复得到资金的青睐
$HYPE — 市场投机情绪标尺，用来判断当下风险偏好高低
$DOGE & $ZEC — 散户情绪窗口，直观反映短线投机热度