Orbit Post Sitemap
Liquidity was very low over the weekend, but on-chain data was quite lively.
Data from Santiment shows that over the past week, the Bitcoin network added 2.27 million new wallets, marking a new high in nearly a year.
This number exactly coincides with the exact point of the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability outbreak.
The vulnerability triggered a wave of panic migration among self-custodian users—either moving to new wallets or moving to custodians. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas quoted: "In the long run, I can't imagine some people moving from cold storage to ETFs."
The new addresses hit a 10-month high, indicating someone is entering the market, at least preparing. However, on-chain transfers have not increased much, and the activity of new wallets is still being verified $BTC Everyone agrees that the EIP-7702 protocol, officially deployed in the Pectra upgrade, is an experience accelerator for Ethereum moving toward large-scale adoption. This proposal, personally led by Vitalik, allows traditional EOA accounts (i.e., ordinary wallets like MetaMask we use daily) to temporarily have smart contract account capabilities during transactions through simple signature authorization, enabling advanced features like batch trading, third-party gas fee payments, and session keys. For a time, media and developers cheered "the era of smart accounts has fully arrived, with retail user barriers completely eliminated." But in my logic as a long-term on-market trader and high-frequency DeFi user, this technological leap is head-on against the high wall of interests built by wallet giants based on monopolistic land rent. Since the technical solution is already so mature and effective, why can't we feel this seamless experience in practice?
The answer is actually hidden in the wallet's issuer's secret cash flow ledger.
Previously, to perform a simple swap on the Ethereum Layer 2 network and stake it into the lending pool, I had to confirm multiple pop-ups on the MetaMask interface, confirming the limit and paying gas fees each time, making the process extremely fragmented and painful. In theory, EIP-7702 allows applications to package off-chain, allowing users to complete authorization, exchange, and staking in the backend with just one confirmation click, and even the gas fees paid by the project team. However, if this "contactless authorization" and "backend aggregated transactions" become widespread, users will no longer need to open MetaMask pop-ups every time. This means the MetaMask wallet's core traffic blocking advantage will be completely destroyed.
So, what does losing control over pop-up interception mean for wallet giants?
We should know that MetaMask's parent company ConsenSys's most profitable annual revenue is not from selling software services, but from its wallet's built-in swap feature, which charges channel intermediary fees as high as 0.875%. This fee rate is several times higher than most decentralized exchanges on the market, but it still intercepts and collects tens of millions of dollars in rent annually through convenience like retail users and one-click path dependencies in pop-up interfaces. Once temporary delegated accounts for EIP-7702 are fully implemented at the underlying layer, developers can silently redirect all transaction operations to third-party low-rate aggregators by paying gas fees and off-chain routers within DApps, so users don't even know what backend contract they called when completing the transaction. This directly cuts off wallet giants' revenue from intercepting pop-ups to collect purchase fees.
To defend against this commercial dehydration crisis, traffic entry parties have adopted a covert "cold handling" strategy.
Although they claim to support EIP-7702 protocol transaction types in their underlying code, on the client interface, they never proactively provide users with persistent intelligent delegate settings, and even set up complex security warnings in authorization pop-ups, keeping ordinary retail investors out with a very high barrier to understanding. Large-scale technical applications have been silently blocked at the forefront of the interface by traffic intermediaries.
This is a typical conflict in the crypto ecosystem between technological idealism and monopoly commercial interests at the entry point. Underlying protocols are desperately lowering barriers, while traffic intermediaries are building walls of profit to maintain their own land rent barriers.
Faced with this conflict of interests, I personally have great skepticism about Ethereum's so-called seamless Mass Adoption process. If the most profitable entry platform in the ecosystem is aggressively opposing and resisting experience optimization, can merely modifying Ethereum's underlying EIP proposals alone redeem user experience?
Perhaps only when the new generation of chain abstraction wallets—no pop-up ads and fully embedded in the app backend—begins to physically eliminate the established giants in terms of market share, will this high wall of interests truly be removed.
Do you think MetaMasks will continue to lag down on the road to optimizing experiences just to maintain the 0.875% swap tax deduction? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section.Next week's CPI data is the catalyst most likely to break the balance in the near term.
For the Fed, a cooler CPI is more challenging than a hot one—if core inflation stays above 3%, combined with a mix of nonfarm payrolls turning negative, policymakers will face a dilemma.
The market is currently pricing in a "falling inflation" scenario, but if oil prices remain at current levels, August CPI may not fall as expected. Prices will anticipate expectations in advance, but the final direction will be determined by the data.
Before the CPI data is released, the tug-of-war between 64,000 and 65,000 is very likely to continue. Let's wait for the data to come out; it won't matter in the next few days.
$BTC ETF data is showing signs of recovery.
Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $850 million, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-April.
But whether this trend can continue into next week depends on whether the CPI data supports the reinforcement of the "rate cut trade" logic.
If inflation data is cool, funds may flow back into crypto assets; If hot, institutions may pause buying and wait for clearer policy signals. Both buyers and sellers in the weekend market are watching from the sidelines; without new catalysts, prices will find it difficult to break out of the current range.
After next week's CPI data is released, the resistance level at 65,000 will be retested. If volume surges and it breaks through, upside space will open; If the data is bearish, the 63,500 support will be tested again.
$BTC The unlock may have removed a known supply overhang, but it did not settle the valuation debate. With more than 250M shares still short, about 16% of tradable stock, and options activity rising, price action can reflect positioning as much as improving fundamentals.
Strong revenue growth and a narrower loss support repricing, while higher AI capex keeps cash burn in focus. My read: the rally becomes more durable only if fundamental progress outlasts the mechanical bid from short covering; until then, volatility is part of the thesis, not noise. Not advice, just analysis.
#SpaceXShortCovering #OKXOrbitETF funds suddenly flowing back—is the next wave of BTC and ETH about to begin?
After a period of silence, institutional funds returned
In the past, the market has been waiting for a signal: who will drive the next round of crypto rally?
Now the answer is beginning to emerge.
From August 3 to August 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $865 million, marking the highest level in nearly 15 weeks. Among them, BlackRock IBIT contributed about $694 million in a single week.
Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs continue to attract capital, with a net inflow of about $244 million this week, maintaining inflows for five consecutive weeks.
The significance behind this is not just a few ETF numbers looking better.
The biggest change in the crypto market over the past year is the shift in capital structure. Previously, market trends relied more on retail investor sentiment and cyclical narratives, but now, ETFs are becoming an important channel for traditional capital entering the crypto market.
But the return of funds does not mean the rally has already started.
What the market is really focused on now is whether these capital inflows can form a sustained trend.
BTC's core logic remains institutional asset allocation, while ETH is undergoing a new narrative shift. With the development of stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain finance, Ethereum is gradually being redefined by the market from a pure blockchain asset to a part of financial infrastructure.
However, the macro environment remains the biggest variable.
If U.S. inflation continues to decline and the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle in the future, improved liquidity could further drive risk asset performance.
However, if rate cut expectations fluctuate or capital inflows are only short-term allocation adjustments, the market may still experience volatility.
In my view, this ETF capital inflow is more like a signal than an endpoint.
The crypto market is gradually shifting from an "emotional bull market" to a "capital bull market." What will truly determine the future of BTC and ETH is not short-term price fluctuations, but whether institutional funds continue to increase and whether traditional finance continues to migrate on-chain.
When capital begins to reprice the industry, the market is often just entering a new phase.
Price is always more honest than news. Next, let's see if the funds will continue to stay $BICO $SNDK $GRVT
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? To put it simply: the lukewarm reception of BIP-110 and the lagging forked chains precisely prove that Bitcoin's evolution logic has changed—it no longer pursues radical experiments but prioritizes "stability" above all. This is not community laziness but a rational choice of a mature system. First, about BIP-110, it’s not that it’s coldly received, it’s been deliberately shelved. Someone proposed a new idea to change the consensus rules, but the community response was lukewarm. The reason is si🚨 IF YOU’RE BUYING $SPCX HERE, YOU MAY BE BUYING DIRECTLY INTO A MASSIVE SUPPLY WALL.
Everyone seems convinced the bottom is in.
Everyone expects $SPCX to keep moving higher from here.
And honestly, that’s exactly what makes me cautious.
The real selling pressure may not have hit the market yet.
📌 911M shares unlocked on August 6.
And that’s only the beginning.
Early investors and employees who entered around $5 now have opportunities to realize massive gains.
More unlock dates are coming:
🔓 Aug 21
🔓 Sep 10
🔓 Sep 25
🔓 Oct 10
🔓 Oct 25
🔓 Nov — Q3 earnings
🔓 Dec 8 — Day 180
By Q3 earnings, roughly 93% of the shares could be eligible for sale.
Think about the supply the market may need to absorb.
That doesn't automatically mean $SPCX must dump, but it does mean selling pressure and dilution risk can't be ignored while the market is trying to push higher.
🎯 My Buy Zone:
$85–$95
I'm NOT buying this setup yet.
I'd rather let the market absorb the unlocks and show me where genuine demand is.
But the moment I make my first $SPCX buy, I'll post it here.
You won't have to guess.
Turn notifications on. 👀
⚠️ Personal market observation for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #财报观察员：高位震荡之后，SpaceX还有多少空间？
$SPCX 最近的走势很有意思。
上周从 105 附近一路冲到 141，涨幅超过 30%。更关键的是，解禁之后市场没有出现预期中的大规模抛压，反而继续上涨，空头回补明显加速了这波行情。
但现在价格回落到 135 附近，并开始高位横盘。
我目前依然持有 130 附近的多单。虽然从 141 回落后吐回了一部分利润，但暂时还没有选择离场。
为什么？
📊 第一，期权市场的博弈正在升温。
期权成交量持续扩大，说明资金正在押注下一方向，多空分歧也越来越明显。
📉 第二，空头仓位依然不低。
目前大约还有 2.5 亿股处于做空状态，占流通股约 16%。
如果后续继续出现逼空，$SPCX 不排除再次向上冲击。
但反过来，如果卖压持续增加，那么现在的高位横盘，也可能正在形成阶段性顶部。
我更倾向于认为：
这一轮上涨更多来自解禁后的空头回补，而不是基本面突然发生了质变。
财报表现确实不错，但 AI 相关资本开支依然是市场需要面对的问题。
目前市场给出的目标价甚至达到 220，但股价还在 135 附近，中间依然存在很大的预期空间，也意味着更大的波动风险。
所以我的计划很简单：
👉 站稳 145 上方，再考虑继续持有或等待加速
👉 跌破 130，严格考虑离场
👉 在 130–145 区间，不追涨，耐心观察
这更像是一场反弹博弈，现在还不能轻易定义成趋势反转。
另外几个标的也值得关注：
🟠 $BICO
小市值币波动太大，暴涨之后往往伴随剧烈回撤。目前日线趋势依旧偏弱，短线可能有反弹，但大方向仍然需要谨慎。
🟢 $BEAT
从 2.2 拉到 3.4，涨幅超过 50%。高位回踩后暂时稳住，成交量依然不错。短线可以观察，但当前位置追涨风险很高，真要参与也建议控制仓位。
🔵 $SNDK
目前仍在 1200 附近震荡，从 1326 回落后迟迟没有重新走强。AI 存储预期正在重新定价，暂时不是我的重点。
市场现在缺的不是故事，而是下一次真正的方向选择。
📅 下周重点看 CPI。
数据出来之前，别急着下注。
高位不代表一定见顶，回调也不代表趋势结束。
真正重要的是：资金下一步到底往哪里走。
#BTC #SPCX #BICO #BEAT #SNDK #Crypto #美股 #财报观察员 Putting $DOGE into the pressure chamber: a triple blow together, how will it go?
Let's talk about DOGE's "death spiral," let's clarify one thing first: it has no cash flow, no burn mechanism, no functional moat. Its price is essentially a product of "faith× liquidity× attention." So the correct way to conduct stress testing isn't technicals, but what happens when all three factors hit zero at once. Today is August 9, 2026. DOGE's current price is $0.0704, with a market cap around $11 billion, right above the weekly support band between 0.068 and 0.072, which has been worn down for nearly two months—let's start putting pressure on from here.
The first pressure: community split. DOGE's community is its only asset. Historically, it has experienced development team departures and infighting within the foundation, but it survived because retail investor sentiment is dispersed—arguments and buying are acceptable. The real danger is "community split + alternative emergence"—back then, DOGE's popularity was once diverted by SHIB. Splits occurred alone, cutting about 30-40% of its valuation, but not fatal, because the remaining loyal investors would become purer positions.
The second pressure: delisting from mainstream exchanges. This is even more severe than splitting. DOGE's daily turnover is $400-500 million, heavily dependent on the depth of platforms like Binance and Coinbase. Delisting doesn't immediately trigger a sell-off, but it triggers a mechanical chain: market makers pull out of pools→ slippage surges→ retail sell orders create liquidity black holes→ and spot ETFs and Paxos are forced to reassess. Looking at coins historically named by the SEC, delisting shocks usually occur instantaneously by -40% to -60%, followed by a prolonged bearish decline.
Third pressure: Musk's complete silence. Note, it's "completely." Since 2021, the marginal effect of each of his dog tweets has diminished to nearly zero, and the market's pricing weight for him has long been significantly reduced. But "silence" and "exit" are two different things—as long as there is option value where "he might call again," DOGE carries an invisible premium. I estimate this premium is 15-20%.
Now triple overlap: Musk's silence removes attention premium, splits and shatters faith, delisting cuts off liquidity. Here's how the chain works—the price first jumps from 0.070 to around 0.045 due to delisting panic, then finds no one buys because the split community doesn't form consensus to bottom-fish, ETF passive reductions break through 0.038, the cost-intensive zone of 2024, ultimately leading to a negative feedback of "low liquidity and a bearish decline—project team unable to support the market—developer loss." The end of this process isn't zero, but "zombification": the price shrinks to the 0.01–0.02 range, the chain is still alive, and no one cares.
Why not reset to zero? Because DOGE has two things to save it: first, a decentralized holding structure of over 170 billion coins, with no single party able to liquidate; second, its brand has been welded to "meme culture"—as long as there's another bull market in the crypto market, speculators will pick it up like a lottery. That's how it survived the 2022 bear market.
Conclusion: DOGE can withstand a single blow; the real death spiral requires "attention, liquidity, and faith" to break simultaneously. This probability is low, but every holder should think clearly—what you hold is not an asset, but a party ticket that requires continuous voters. When the party ends does not depend on the dog, but on the person.Objectively speaking, Ethereum is an extremely important infrastructure for the entire crypto industry. A large number of innovations in DeFi, NFT, and Layer2 originated here. The prosperity of the ETH ecosystem indeed drives the overall crypto market upward. During bull markets, ETH often shows greater upward momentum than BTC, offering higher returns. However, even acknowledging its growth potential, for an ordinary person like me who does dollar-cost averaging, I still prioritize BTC over ETH. The biggest difference between the two is not in growth potential but in long-term certainty. 1. Institutions, publicly listed companies, and reserve funds prioritize BTC. If crypto assets are viewed as alternative reserve assets, the choice of traditional large funds has already been made. The global spot BTC-ETF scale far exceeds that of ETH-ETF. Many publicly listed companies and sovereign-related reserve funds always choose BTC as their first option for crypto asset allocation. Companies like MicroStrategy have massively converted their balance sheet reserves into BTC; some countries have included BTC as a digital reserve asset, likening it to digital gold, using it as an inflation hedge and a tool to offset fiat currency depreciation. Although ETH also has institutional holdings, these are mostly venture capital and industry funds. Large funds that truly do asset reserves and value preservation rarely hold ETH in large quantities. The reason is practical: institutions buying reserve assets seek not the highest gains but predictability and low volatility. BTC is defined as a commodity-like digital asset with a simple and clear narrative: total supply #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has been moved backward
Actually, this issue has little to do with the big deal itself; it's purely the two parties using crypto as a political bargaining chip.
The Democrats use the "morality clause" as a slapstick against Trump, while the Republicans want to push the bill but lack enough votes.
What is the real impact?
In the short term, the negative news has basically been exhausted. The market began expecting the bill would fail at the end of July, with the probability dropping from 82% to 13%. Crypto stocks like Coinbase have already fallen once.
But in the medium term, uncertainty has indeed lengthened. Institutional funds dare not enter on a large scale, and the regulatory vacuum continues. The period between the September reconvening and the November election is the final window; if the election is delayed and all procedures in the new Congress restart, that would be a real disaster.
My view is simple—the bill is unlikely to die, just slowed down. Polymarket's 13% probability is actually an opportunity to think in contrarian fashion. The market always overreacts; in February, 82% was too optimistic; now at 13%, it might be too pessimistic again.
So just be patient and wait. Washington won't speed up just because you're anxious.
$BTC $ETH $OKB 📰 News Highlights: The U.S. Senate has submitted a procedural motion, and after the August recess, the key voting process for the Clarity Act will begin in mid-September. This is the first comprehensive crypto regulatory framework bill in the United States. Its core function is to distinguish whether tokens are securities or commodities, to separate the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC, and to end the industry's long-standing regulatory ambiguity. For the bill to be implemented, it must reach the 60-vote threshold and require some Democratic lawmakers to support it across party lines. Currently, the division remains huge: Democrats have demands regarding ethical restrictions on officials' crypto assets; Banking industry opposes stablecoin deposit reward clauses; The White House and bipartisan lawmakers are still locked in ongoing negotiations to revise the details. Industry warning: If a compromise cannot be reached before September 15, it will be very difficult to implement this year. If it is postponed until the next parliamentary cycle, the industry will continue to be in an environment of "enforcement-style regulation." How the market interprets this: This is a major medium-term catalyst, not news that will immediately trigger a market rally in the short term. ✅ If passed smoothly: it will open up a large number of policy opportunities for traditional large institutions to enter, which will benefit the entire crypto sector in the medium to long term, especially compliant assets like $BTC and $ETH. ⚠️ If it is postponed again: short-term market sentiment will be hit, but it will not directly change the overall price trend, and the market will mostly return to Fed liquidity. Many people expect the bill to be implemented and usher in a bull market, but in reality, even if the bill passes, funds will enter the market gradually, not overnight. After the nonfarm payroll, I watched the marketIn 2026, global hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle will smash their annual capital expenditures (CapEx) to an astonishing $635 billion to $750 billion. About 75% of that money is directly stuffed into the bottomless pit of AI infrastructure. To show Wall Street their control over the AI iron throne, tech giants are frantically buying computing chips and even using extremely generous 5 to 6 year depreciation periods on their financial statements to depreciate these hardware. But it's clear to anyone that as chip technology iterations shift from years to months, the actual economic lifespan of these GPU hardware is at most 2 to 3 years. This huge time gap is turning into hundreds of billions of dollars in invisible asset depreciation mountains hanging over the US stock market. And once this mountain begins to slide, the first to be crushed to dust are not the Web2 tech giants, but the highly valued decentralized AI computing sectors in the crypto market.
Many retail investors are still excited about the decentralized GPU computing power sharing blueprint outlined by Render or Bittensor, believing that by connecting idle graphics cards worldwide into a network, they can break the monopoly of NVIDIA and cloud service giants and achieve computing power democratization. This is simply a childish fantasy lacking basic business sense.
In the real AI computing power procurement and hardware rental market, pre-training and fine-tuning large models have extremely abnormal requirements for bandwidth and latency. They need to rely on a physical-level lossless high-speed internet like InfiniBand, linking tens of thousands of graphics cards in parallel for distributed computing. Meanwhile, the scattered home graphics cards distributed across the world, connected via public networks, cannot handle any serious mainstream AI tasks due to severe network latency. In reality, these decentralized networks can only rent computing power at reduced prices to small studios for simple 3D rendering or low-end image generation, earning a meager amount of fiat currency. Compared to the hundreds of billions of dollars annually industrial-grade AI matrices of Web2 giants, this is a product of a completely different dimension in terms of efficiency and delivery capacity.
So, since they have no real competitive qualifications in actual business, why can these decentralized hash power tokens still hold valuations worth billions of dollars?
The answer is that their valuations are built on leveraged speculative arbitrage of the Web2 AI bubble. When US stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft surged, crypto speculators needed a story to catch the overflowing hot money, packaging these hardware networks as "computing power alternatives" for the crypto world. But when major US tech giants are forced to lower profit expectations due to inverted AI application returns, or even conduct billion-dollar depreciation write-downs on outdated GPU assets backlogged in their reports, Web2 computing power rental prices will experience a devastating stampede crash. To recoup costs, big players will sell off excess cloud computing power depreciation, which will carry out a devastating dimensionality reduction liquidation on an already uncompetitive decentralized computing power market.
When truly industrial-grade computing power floods the market at floor prices, who will still tolerate the extremely unstable, severely latency, and costly shared services of decentralized networks?
This valuation liquidation may be even more intense than imagined amid the wave of profit cuts in US tech stocks.
When the bubble bursts, how will NakedSwim's distributed hash rate network explain itself to investors who believe in this narrative?
The answer may reveal its harshest true face after the real lease contract for this round of oversupplied computing power is revealed.This looks like stabilization, not a broad risk-on turn. BTC and ETH are nearly flat around $64,832 and $1,915, while SOL’s 1.91% gain is relative strength, not yet confirmation that liquidity is expanding across the market.
Returning BTC and ETH ETF inflows improve the underlying bid, but macro still sets the near-term ceiling. With payrolls weakening and attention shifting to CPI, I would treat current resilience as constructive consolidation rather than chase a breakout.
Not advice, just analysis.
#OKXOrbit#比特币BIP-110提案遇冷，分叉链落后主网
BIP-110真的把Bitcoin分出了一个小链，但我不会因为这件事减BTC。
最新情况更直接：
BIP-110链启动后大约8小时只挖出2个区块，
同期Bitcoin主网已经向前跑了48个区块。
原因也很简单：
最近两周只有约2.53%的区块支持BIP-110，离55%的目标差得非常远。
更重要的是：
分叉发生以后，BTC仍在64.7K—65K附近交易，市场没有出现明显恐慌。
所以我的判断：
**现在这不是Bitcoin系统性危机，更像一次失败的少数派分叉实验。**
我反而会继续看价格本身：
64K守住，我维持偏多；
66K—67K站稳，我才进一步转强。
真正需要小心的是参与BIP-110分叉币交易的人——两条链目前仍可能接受相同交易，存在replay风险。citeturn256544view0
一句话：
**主网没停、算力没跑、价格没慌，我不会因为一个2.53%支持率的分叉去看空BTC。**
$BTC 🚨 No $ETH Scarcity Trade Yet
There’s no confirmed $ETH scarcity setup just yet.
EIP-8363 — not EIP-8361 — remains an open draft, while roughly 2.44M ETH is waiting to enter staking and the exit queue remains empty.
Under the baseline proposal, regular staking yield could fall from around 2.6% to 1.2%.
For now, this is still a proposal—not a finalized catalyst.
Keep your $ETH productive, but I’d avoid jumping into an ETH/BTC long purely on the scarcity narrative while the proposal is still just paperwork.
Wait for implementation, not speculation. 👀
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn BTC 8.9 Weekly Report: $64,000 Tug-of-War, Both Bulls and Bears Waiting for a Signal
Today is Sunday, and the market is unusually quiet.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,500–$64,900, up about 3% over the past week. But looking over the past 24 hours, BTC has only slipped 0.28%, quoted at around $64,800—almost negligible volatility, with the market entering a typical "weekend sideways mode."
Looking back at this week, BTC once surged to $65,300, but the bulls failed to hold and then came under pressure and pulled back to the $64,800 range, repeatedly tugging back and forth. Surge—hit by resistance—pullback—this scenario has played out several times this week.
📊 Quick overview of the board
The core battleground for BTC right now is clear:
· Resistance above: $65,000 (psychological level), $65,300–$65,500 (recent resistance zone)
· Support below: $64,000 (short-term key support), $62,000–$62,200 (medium-term core support zone)
The 4-hour chart shows prices remain above the EMA50 ($64,402) and EMA200 ($63,722), with the overall bullish structure not yet broken. However, the MACD has formed a death cross, momentum has waned, and the RSI is hovering in the neutral zone around 55. Simply put: the overall direction is not bad, but short-term momentum is weak.
⚔️ Long-Bear Game: Who Is Buying, Who Is Selling?
On the bulls' side, ETF funds are the biggest source of confidence. Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling $853.5 million, the largest single-week inflow since April 17. BlackRock IBIT alone contributed $693.7 million. Institutional funds are quietly bottom-fishing, which is an important support signal for the medium-term trend.
On the bears' side, there are also many factors weighing them down. On one hand, concerns over a BIP-110 fork continue to shake market sentiment—even though this minority chain has actually stalled, producing only 2 blocks in 8 hours. On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady at 4.73%, and high yields continue to weigh on the valuation of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 29 today, still in the "panic" range.
🔮 What to watch next?
The market has entered a quiet period before direction selection—volume continues to shrink, and volatility is compressed to the extreme. This state won't last long.
The US CPI data for August 13 will be the key catalyst for breaking the deadlock. If CPI falls and ETF funds continue to flow, BTC is expected to break through $66,000; If CPI exceeds expectations and high yields are combined with strong hawkish expectations, the $64,000 support will be tested.
In the short term, maintain a volatile mindset, and avoid blindly chasing gains or selling losses in the $64,000–$65,300 range. Patiently waiting for the direction after CPI is implemented is much wiser than forcing trades in this consolidating market with shrinking volume.
---
The above is only a market information summary and personal opinion sharing, and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please manage your risks well
#BTC #比特币行情 #加密市场 #OKX星球 #周末分析😂 Trump Says Bitcoin Has “Relieved Pressure” on the U.S. Dollar — But What Does That Actually Mean?
I almost spit out my water when I heard that. 😂
But seriously, the statement raises an interesting question.
Maybe the bigger story isn’t Bitcoin replacing the dollar.
Maybe it’s Bitcoin and crypto creating even more channels for dollar liquidity to flow through the global financial system.
Just look at stablecoins.
$WLFI issues $USD1 , while $USDT and $USDC operate on essentially the same broader principle: different brands, different ecosystems, but ultimately backed by dollar-denominated assets.
Different logos. Different names.
But underneath it all?
The dollar remains at the center. 💵
As crypto adoption grows across trading, transfers, payments, and on-chain finance, dollar-backed stablecoins can circulate more widely throughout the digital economy.
So maybe Trump genuinely believes in $BTC.
Or perhaps he understands something even bigger:
Bitcoin can expand the crypto economy while the dollar remains its liquidity backbone.
Either way, retail traders shouldn’t blindly get excited every time a major political figure says something bullish about Bitcoin.
Narratives are narratives.
Candlesticks are candlesticks. 📉📈
If $BTC is still forming a bottom in 2026, I’m not jumping in simply because someone famous praised it.
I’d rather wait for price to reach a level where the risk-to-reward actually makes sense.
😂 What do you think?
Does Trump genuinely believe in Bitcoin, or is he recognizing Bitcoin and stablecoins as tools that could ultimately strengthen the dollar’s role in the digital economy?
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $XAUT In the past week, it rose from about $4,040 to $4,330+, an increase of over 7%. Let's analyze the reasons for the movement:
1. US nonfarm payroll data falls far short of expectations→ Rising rate cut expectations + falling real interest rates + safe-haven demand have led to a rapid surge in gold from $3,900–4,000.
2. When gold fell 14% in Q2, XAUT reserves actually increased by 9.5%, indicating that holders continued to grow, indicating funds were accumulating tokenized gold at low levels. Combined with Shariah certification and ADGM recognition, The BTCFi track is currently in a period of divergence between underlying architecture and liquidity capture models. The core conflict centers on the trade-off between the lock-up rigidity anchored by a minimalist ledger and the security of relay consensus compatible with EVM.
Funds are split between $STX's mainnet time lock and $CORE's hybrid consensus independent clearing layer. The native minimalist route requires staking BTC to be rigidly paired with about 5% of the value of STX and locked for 6 months, while the compatibility route transfers status via relay nodes and uses a free lock-up period.
The primary driver determining capital retention rate is institutional funds' trust in relay node security, followed by developers' migration efficiency and ecosystem returns on EVM chains.
The trigger for the upward scenario lies in institutional custody funds and accelerated inflows into the low-cost migration of the Ethereum ecosystem. If the real revenue from SatPay and lstBTC can continue to convert into transaction fee buyback and burning, it will directly offset the unlocking and selling pressure of dual-staking yield tokens, driving the existing funds to break upward.
The failure signal for the upward scenario lies in the matching threshold. If the mandatory token allocation requirement of about 5% suppresses the growth of total staked supply, the price breakout path driven by rigid matching will become invalid.
The trigger for the downside scenario lies in security concerns caused by architectural complexity. If the relay stage faces challenges from decentralized verification or significant node fluctuations, liquidity will quickly withdraw from the mixed consensus chain, triggering one-sided selling pressure.
When the downward trend unfolds, if the destruction flywheel generated by institutional custody business can provide sufficient cash flow to absorb, selling pressure will be successfully absorbed, and the downward trend will come to an end.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is the new staking share within the Bitcoin mainnet time lock, as well as the dynamic changes in the verification status of cross-chain relay nodes.
#Uniswap进军发射台, can UNI open up a new narrative? #非农意外转负, CPI is key to rate hikesI just suddenly realized something: the biggest problem with this round of $BTC and all the altcoins isn't the drop—it's that there are no new stories left.
Look at the US stock market—AI, optical communications, commercial aerospace—one after another, pushing new narratives upward, and money naturally flows there. Gold also has the hard logic of de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases. What about crypto? The positive news from ETFs has long been digested, and the halving narrative is behind the scenes. Funds on the market are becoming more picky, and the pool is getting shallower. Without new stories, there is no incremental capital—this is the root cause of sideways trading.
I used to get slapped back and forth inside the box, but looking back now, I just can't figure it out. I just stare at the candlestick charts, struggling hard in windless corners—no wonder I'm getting beaten. Rather than getting battered and bruised, it's better to put away the bullets, control your hands, and wait for the next real new story to come out. When there's no wind, just lie down; when the wind comes, move again—no rush. #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? BICO rebounded +3.9% from my stop-loss pit this morning, but I opened a short at 16:37 and took profit at 17:38—this order was a bargain +14.9%. Old retail investors finally stopped using it as a contrarian indicator.
$BTC 64,800 (24h -0.3%), funding cooled to +0.0052%, OI 106,400 remained unchanged, volume shrank by -80% week-on-week. Last hour's +129% "real volume" was the afterimage of BICO selling, not new money entering — the market remains stagnant.
The Shanzhai King's Day Tour: The consecutive rally king BICO fell to OKX's top loser in 24h (-3.7%), while the new king PUMP bucked the trend with a +8.5% gain, changing three rounds in the same hour.
$BTC Playing dead + counterfeit king swapping out faster than changing clothes = a market with zero consensus direction, not healthy rotation, but the last momentum of hot potatoes.
My XSNDK short position expired this hour with a slight loss of -0.44%. Newly opened PUMP and chased momentum (30% position), floating profit 0. Chasing new kings? I'm more afraid of a day trip than anyone.
Can you take this new King PUMP? A day trip, hurry up and run / B You can still rush, comment on your choice.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $PUMP #OKX星球 #山寨轮动 #一日游行情ETH 的數字看起來有方向感，但樣本量提醒我們別把比例說得太滿。 OKX Onchain OS 在 08 月 09 日 14:00 的官方快照中記錄到 ETH 一小時 10 次提及，其中 X 10 次、新聞 0 次；二十四小時合計 422 次。 最新一小時速度是二十四小時每小時平均的 0.57 倍，換句話說，比二十四小時的每小時平均低約 43%，整體屬於「明顯放慢」。這能描述注意力節奏，卻不能替代價格、成交或資金流資料。 語氣方面，一小時偏多 20%、偏空 10%、中性約 70%，所以目前是「偏多略佔優」。二十四小時對應比例為偏多 28%、偏空 20%；短窗是否正在偏離長窗，比單看其中一個百分比更有意義。 這裡我最在意的其實是分母：只有 10 次。多幾條集中討論，比例就可能被明顯改寫；轉發、引用和新聞重述也可能都在說同一件事。偏多或偏空可以照實寫，但不能順手翻譯成有多少資金建立了同方向部位。 目前 ETH 的來源結構是「幾乎全由 X 驅動」。若 X 提及先增、新聞仍少，較像社群先行擴散；若新聞同步增加，也只是代表可核對材料變多，仍需回到基金會、協議、監管或交易平台的原始公告確認細節。 SanDisk and SK Hynix have just released the HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) standard,
Google has joined in.
Once HBF begins generating real revenue, the market will reprice it from a "cyclical stock" to an "AI infrastructure stock."
Investor Day on August 13 is a key milestone—if the HBF schedule and client orders are disclosed in detail at the meeting, it is highly likely to be raised.
$SNDK Trump just said Bitcoin has “relieved pressure” on the U.S. dollar.
I almost spit out my water. 😂
But seriously… what does “relieve pressure” actually mean?
If you think about it, maybe the bigger story isn’t Bitcoin replacing the dollar—it’s Bitcoin and crypto creating even more ways for dollar liquidity to flow.
Look at stablecoins.
$WLFI issues $USD1, but it’s still backed by U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasury assets. Same basic idea with $USDT and $USDC.
Different brands. Different logos. But underneath it all?
The dollar is still sitting at the center of the system. 💵
The more people use crypto for trading, transfers, and payments, the more dollar-backed stablecoins circulate through the crypto economy.
So maybe Trump really does believe in $BTC.
Or maybe he understands something even bigger:
Bitcoin can grow the crypto economy while the dollar remains the liquidity backbone.
Either way, we small retail traders shouldn't get too excited just because the president praises Bitcoin.
Stories are stories. Candlesticks are candlesticks. 📉📈
If $BTC is still forming a bottom in 2026, I’m not going to blindly jump in just because someone famous said something bullish.
I’ll wait for the price to reach a level where the risk actually makes sense to me.
😂 So what do you think?
Does Trump genuinely believe in Bitcoin—or is he using Bitcoin to strengthen the dollar and expand the stablecoin ecosystem?
#DailyOrbit
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering $BTC weekend liquidity is extremely thin, yet people are already claiming the fundamentals have changed and a new bull market is coming.
Honestly, I don’t agree.
Look at the data:
📉 $BTC -USDT weekend bid-ask spreads have reportedly widened from the usual 0.012% to 0.028%, more than doubling.
📊 Overall weekend trading volume can be 20–40% lower than during weekdays, while liquidity around the 21:00 UTC window reportedly drops another 42%.
Why does this happen?
ETF markets are closed, market makers reduce activity, and order books become much thinner. In these conditions, even a relatively large order can create a temporary spike or fake breakout.
As Old Cat mentioned this morning, Sunday volume is simply too small. There’s little follow-through, and the market is basically printing doji candles while going nowhere.
When liquidity disappears, price can drift without meaningfully confirming a trend.
A sudden move up or down during thin weekend conditions doesn’t automatically mean a new bull market is starting.
I’d rather wait for the Monday U.S. market open, when liquidity and volume return, before judging the next real direction.
For now, it looks more like a stagnant pool with a lot of self-hype. 👀
$BTC
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward?
This rally was unexpected: SPCX unlocking did not trigger a sell-off, but instead rebounded in a short squeeze, directly breaking through the 135 issue price and surpassing 140 during trading. The core was short covering and closing positions, combined with warming macro interest rates and off-exchange capital inflow.
⚠️ Currently, the market is recovering from negative news and does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. High capital expenditures and multiple batches of unlocking chips to be released remain risks.
Key level update: 134-136 has turned into support; Resistance above is 144-148. Hold the resistance level, short pressing continues; If it can't break up, short-term profit-taking will be realized, likely to pull back.
It serves as a barometer of risk appetite, with strength and weakness transmitted to crypto tech narrative coins. Let's look at a tool to judge the 'true willingness' of funds: Coinbase Premium. Currently, CBs are trading at a slight discount to Binance (about −0.07%, which is just single digits in USD), indicating that US institutional funds have neither been aggressively buying or panic-selling these past two days—they're just lying flat. With trading volume shrinking and thinning, the whole market is in a state where 'no one wants to sell first.' At this point, it's easy to be fooled by the volume increase of a single exchange, and cross-exchange comparisons will give you away. $BTC If you want to confirm your direction, wait until the CB premium and trading volume both turn around. Data won't play along with you $BTC 🔥 Trump just said Bitcoin has “relieved pressure” on the U.S. dollar.
I almost spit out my water. 😂
But seriously… what does “relieve pressure” actually mean?
If you think about it, maybe the bigger story isn’t Bitcoin replacing the dollar—it’s Bitcoin and crypto creating even more ways for dollar liquidity to flow.
Look at stablecoins.
$WLFI issues $USD1, but it’s still backed by U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasury assets. Same basic idea with $USDT and $USDC.
Different brands. Different logos. But underneath it all?
The dollar is still sitting at the center of the system. 💵
The more people use crypto for trading, transfers, and payments, the more dollar-backed stablecoins circulate through the crypto economy.
So maybe Trump really does believe in $BTC.
Or maybe he understands something even bigger:
Bitcoin can grow the crypto economy while the dollar remains the liquidity backbone.
Either way, we small retail traders shouldn't get too excited just because the president praises Bitcoin.
Stories are stories. Candlesticks are candlesticks. 📉📈
If $BTC is still forming a bottom in 2026, I’m not going to blindly jump in just because someone famous said something bullish.
I’ll wait for the price to reach a level where the risk actually makes sense to me.
😂 So what do you think?
Does Trump genuinely believe in Bitcoin—or is he using Bitcoin to strengthen the dollar and expand the stablecoin ecosystem?
#DailyOrbit Legal Frontier: Bybit sues North Korea's Lazarus Group, marking a new paradigm in crypto recovery battles
Event
On August 7, Bybit filed a civil lawsuit in federal court in Washington, D.C., accusing North Korea, the General Investigation Bureau (RGB), and Lazarus Group of orchestrating the largest $1.5 billion cryptocurrency theft in February 2025, and has obtained a preliminary court injunction to freeze some of the stolen assets. (Source: CoinDesk, Crypto Briefing)
Background numbers
Scale of theft: $1.5 billion (February 2025, largest single heist in crypto history)
Recovered: approximately $433 million (through cooperation with multiple exchanges)
Defendants: North Korean sovereign state + intelligence agency + hacker group
In-depth analysis
This is the first time in the crypto industry that a sovereign state has filed a recovery lawsuit, and its significance goes far beyond Bybit alone:
Legal channels fill the gap. In the past two years, on-chain tracking + exchange collaboration have been the main means of recovering stolen funds, but against national-level attackers, civil claims are almost the only legal avenue. The value of a preliminary freezing order lies in the fact that once assets enter a compliant financial institution that has business with the defendant, the freezing order becomes effectively binding.
Enforcement is the biggest challenge. North Korean assets are mostly liquidated through mixers, cross-chain bridges, and over-the-counter transactions, and there are no assets within the country available for enforcement. The practical effect of the lawsuit is more likely to be pressure: forcing exchanges to strengthen suspicious address screening and establish precedents for similar cases in the future.
Narrative Twist. The industry narrative of "hackers are not accountable" is loosening—for the first time, national-level actors are being dragged into court proceedings, even though enforcement is fraught with difficulties.
Summary
This lawsuit marks a landmark shift in the crypto industry from "passive defense" to "proactive accountability." The short-term impact on market sentiment is limited, but in the medium to long term, the maturity of the recovery mechanism will boost institutions' confidence in on-chain asset security. (Data sources: CoinDesk, PR Newswire, CoinLaw)To put it bluntly: ETF funds are flowing back sharply but BTC prices haven't moved. This is not a divergence, but a more reliable bottom signal than a surge—institutions are accumulating shares, not pumping the market.
Over the past week, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs combined saw net inflows of about $1.1 billion, marking the strongest weekly performance since April. BTC accounted for the majority, over $800 million, with inflows spread across multiple trading days, not just impulse buying.
But what about the price? BTC is still hovering around 65K, without the expected violent breakout.
This "buying in and stable prices" situation is actually more convincing than simply pushing prices up.
The logic is simple: when large amounts of funds continue to buy spot ETFs and prices refuse to fall, it indicates that underlying demand is quietly absorbing available supply in the market. Institutional buyers are most likely taking advantage of market uncertainty to build positions in batches, rather than chasing high FOMO. This accumulation method is much more solid than short-term market rallying.
Another key variable is leverage.
After several rounds of cleanup, speculative high-leverage bulls have been largely cleared out, and on-chain data shows the position structure is shifting from "leverage-driven" to "spot-driven." This means that if ETF inflows continue and no major negative macro conditions occur, the foundation for the next rally will be more solid than before—less likely to be stabbed back to square one.
For the next rotation path, I will focus on these levels:
· 👑 BTC — the core anchor of institutional liquidity; stability means overall stability
· 🏛️ ETH — the most direct beneficiary of the rebound in ETF demand
· ⚡ SOL — High-beta variety, a barometer confirming the strength of the trend
· 🟡 BNB & XRP — Large-cap blue-chip catch-up participation
· 🔗 LINK — Fundamental support at the infrastructure layer
· 🤖 TAO & WLD — The Heat Trends in AI Narratives
· 🚀 SUI & HYPE — The most sensitive elastic targets with risk appetite
The conclusion is clear:
The key is not how aggressive the ETF inflows are on a given day, but whether the inflows can be sustained while BTC prices remain stable. If this "buy but not pump" combination can last another 1-2 weeks, the market is likely quietly gathering momentum for a broader Q4 recovery. I've been watching SPCX these past few days.
To be honest, what surprised me the most wasn't that it went up, but that it didn't get smashed after the ban was lifted.
Previously, the market was waiting for the August reopening.
The logic is also simple:
It was so hot when it went public, then it surged so fiercely earlier, and now a large batch of stocks can be sold. Employees and early investors must want to cash out, right?
But the market waited to see the fireworks, only to find out that what was exploding seemed to be the shorts.
The SPCX dropped nearly 16% on Friday.
I later reread the financial report and found that this stock is quite interesting now.
Q2 revenue has reached nearly $7.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion.
But what about the other side?
Net profit was still a loss, losing about $540 million.
So those buying SPCX now aren't really buying how much money they're making today.
What I bought was the future.
Starlink, rockets, satellite communications, and AI—the market has now started pricing it as a super infrastructure company.
This is precisely where the problem lies.
I really like SpaceX as a company, but "liking the company" and "liking the price" are completely different things.
At $225, the market had basically told every possible story.
After dropping to over 100, some people actually started to seriously calculate the accounts.
Now that it has pulled back to around 130, I think the real interesting phase for SPCX is just beginning.
Because the most feared anticipation of unlocking has temporarily passed, but valuation issues have not disappeared.
From now on, I won't care much whether it rises or falls 10% one day.
I want to see three things more:
Can Starlink continue its rapid growth?
Can AI business truly contribute profits?
Such a terrifying capital expenditure—can it eventually turn into cash flow?
If two of these three things come out, SPCX may look expensive today, but in a few years, it might not be expensive at all.
But if AI ultimately remains just a valuation story and Starlink's growth slows down again, then the current price is still not cheap.
So my attitude toward SPCX is pretty simple now:
I'm very optimistic about the company, and I'm starting to take an interest in the stock, but I won't chase this level just because it surges in one day.
The most common mistake SpaceX makes is because Musk, rockets, and Starlink are too sexy, and in the end, they forget that stock still needs to be settled.
A good company doesn't necessarily mean a good price.
But when a good company drops at a good price, I will definitely watch carefully $SPCX I'm Ci Ge. Over the weekend, I came across Jiang Bolong's private placement announcement while browsing forums, raising 3.7 billion yuan, with a price of 560 yuan and Friday's closing price at 386 yuan. Bought at a 45% premium, but the public fund I participated in was immediately at a floating loss.
I checked the private placement process myself, and there was a one-month gap after the private placement was completed before the official report was disclosed. At the beginning of July, the lowest subscription price was more than 600, so in the environment at the time, 560 subscription wasn't considered outrageous. The earliest quote was around 450, but eventually it was snapped up to 560, with the ratio of the issue price to the reserve price being 1.2 times. In recent years, after the new regulations, private placements have become fairer, with discounts around 90%. Fifteen years ago, private placements could be at 50%, which was truly outrageous. This year, there was a precedent for Zhipu, which was placed in a 1,588 HKD private placement, with institutions still holding 20%.
Jiangbo Long is not an isolated case; the entire storage sector is undergoing a brutal round of valuation correction. Korean leveraged ETFs are now virtually defunct, and LPs are undergoing large-scale redemptions, bringing additional selling pressure. Nvidia is weakening the HBM configuration of Rubin Ultra and instead betting on optical interconnection, which allows the Rubin Ultra cluster to maintain an advantage over the Rubin cluster, while HBM allocation is being compressed. The market is forming a consensus that memory chip prices will peak within the next two quarters. Citi downgraded Micron's rating, believing that the quarter-over-quarter price increases in DRAM and NAND will slow over the next four quarters, with pricing expected to peak in the second quarter of next year.
Storage has never been the anchor for AI; aggressive price hikes are not conducive to other segments. Recently, there has been a short-term combination in the US stock market called short-term storage and long optical communications. Capital is shifting from storage hardware to optical interconnection, and this signal deserves attention.
On the A-share side, there have been two main themes since the August rebound. Upstream AI materials: indium phosphide, optical wafers, PCBs, etc.; midstream and downstream software applications: software, cloud services, satellite communications, robotics, etc. PCB was the hottest main theme in the first week, catalyzed by Gousheng's short essay on Monday retesting boards. Since that day, news of board passes has been spreading, marking the biggest bottleneck for Rubin's smooth mass production. By Wednesday, Gousheng was launched. The price hike slope for electronic fabrics widened again, Goldman Sachs raised its PCB market size forecast, and the entire PCB chain is growing stronger.
US July nonfarm payroll data was negative 23,000, while the market expected 80,000, providing a reasonable explanation for gold's recent strength. Over the weekend, the US federal court approved WuXi AppTec's temporary injunction application, meaning WuXi will no longer be added to the 1260H list during the injunction period. The exchange plans to improve the LOF exit mechanism, with commodity futures LOF and QDII LOF delisting no later than the end of 2027. About 125 LOF warrants are involved in delisting, with a scale of around 26 billion. The reason is that factors such as foreign exchange quotas, subscription limits, and futures holding limits have caused on-exchange LOF premiums to be much higher than off-exchange ones.
The future is bright, but the road is winding. After the hardships of July, the first week of August got off to a good start, and the market is very likely to continue, so everyone can recover well.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Take a closer look.Holding the right coin but stagnating all month is no match for watching $ADA surge nearly 20% in a week — this is the harsh reality of the current market. $BTC hovers around 64K, still 48% below its previous high, but capital never sleeps and is rotating rapidly. Small-cap meme coins $POR, $WKC, $HEI are hot for short bursts; privacy sector $ZEC rose 12% weekly, $XMR quietly building momentum; meanwhile, $ONDO and the RWA sector pulled back 10%, and $XRP, $SUI, $PEPE are caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. This is not a traditional alt season, but a narrative rotation amid liquidity fragmentation. A sharp signal: $ZEC and the gold token $XAUT strengthening reveal the market is shifting toward defensive hedging rather than full-on risk chasing. Alt season hasn’t died; it has just fragmented into sector-level waves. Picking the right narrative crushes the market, missing the rhythm means endless waiting. If you could keep only one coin until the end of the month, what would your choice be?
$BTC #AltSeason
#CryptoTether's recently released Q2 2026 financial audit report shows impressive data as always: net operating profit reached $1.5 billion, mainly from interest income from $114.96 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and buyback operations. USDT's global circulating supply also climbed to a historic high of $184.6 billion. But amid this prosperity, a key data hidden in the audit report made my eyelids twitch: Tether's excess reserve buffer (the portion of assets exceeding liabilities) was cut from $8.23 billion at the end of Q1 to $4.11 billion. Against the backdrop of a net profit of $1.5 billion, why did the reserve buffer evaporate by $4.1 billion?
The answer lies in Tether's aggressive "asset diversification" strategy over the past year. The audit report shows that Tether is no longer content with just holding Treasuries and cash, but is now reaching into highly volatile assets. During this quarter, they swept up another 14 tons of gold, bringing their total gold holdings to 146 tons (worth about $18.84 billion), while still holding $5.8 billion worth of Bitcoin on their books. When gold and Bitcoin experienced market price drawdowns in the second quarter, the market-to-market accounting standards required financial write-downs. This led to a rather ironic result: Tether's cash profits from Treasuries were mercilessly swallowed up by the floating losses of gold and Bitcoin.
So, is this diversified reserve, which comes at the expense of introducing volatile assets, strengthening USDT's credibility, or is it planting a systemic detonator for the entire stablecoin network?
The official statement is that gold and Bitcoin help Tether withstand the "sovereign risk of a single fiat currency," thereby achieving fully decentralized credit endorsement. But in my logic as a long-term on-exchange trader, the greatest value of stablecoins is "absolute redemption rigidity" and "zero volatility." When retail investors choose to exchange funds for USDT during panic periods, what they need is one dollar that can be 100% converted back to one dollar. If the acceptance issuer's reserve vault holds over $24 billion (about 13% of total assets) in market-volatile gold and Bitcoin, then if the crypto market experiences an extreme credit crisis like the one in 2022, the fair value of these reserve assets will face a crushing shrinkage, and the excess buffer will be completely broken in an instant.
The consequence of the slowdown breakdown is that USDT faces substantial insolvency, triggering an epic depegging and crushing stamp.
Tether clearly recognized this risk, so it proactively cut its secured loan exposure by $2.38 billion this quarter. But this does not hide the overall change in risk structure. A financial giant that has accepted $184.6 billion and almost serves as the underlying liquidity lifeblood of the entire Web3 world is actually pushing itself into the role of a high-risk investment institution.
Will this shift in logic ultimately lead to a black swan that disrupts the liquidity balance in the crypto market?
I'm not sure when regulators will step in, but I'll keep a close eye on this $4.11 billion buffer zone in the upcoming earnings tracking. If this number falls below $2 billion next quarter due to Bitcoin's continued decline, I'll push my defensive stance to the limit in trading.
What do you think of Tether's gold and Bitcoin reserve strategy? Is it a moat against centralized confiscation, or a ticking time bomb beneath the stablecoin edifice?你有没有想过一个问题：为什么全世界最无聊的东西，反而最值钱？ 水泥。钢筋。下水道。电力网格。这些东西没有人在社交媒体上讨论，没有人给它们做短视频，没有任何一个正常人会在深夜两点因为想到排水系统而兴奋得睡不着觉。但你仔细看——人类文明的每一层楼，都踩在它们上面。 我今天想聊的是：以太坊正在变成数字世界的混凝土。 不是比喻。是结构性的、物质性的、不可逆的那种"变成"。 一、混凝土悖论：越无聊越不可替代 先说一个反直觉的事实。 2026年8月，以太坊社区正在为EIP-8363吵得不可开交——这个提案建议在质押率达到50%时将新增发行降至零。Aave的创始人说这会毁掉DeFi，Lido的研究负责人说这会杀死独立验证者，而提案的作者Justin Drake说这是拯救ETH长期稀缺性的唯一路径。 这场争论本身就是答案。 你见过有人为水泥的配方吵架吗？没有。但你见过一栋楼因为水泥配方不对而塌掉吗？见过。混凝土的特点就是：平时没人关心它，一旦它出问题，所有人都要死。 以太坊正在进入这个阶段。它不再是一个"平台"——平台可以被替换，用户会用脚投票。它正在成为一种基础设施物质——你不需要知道它的存在，但你How will Da Bing move tomorrow? Let's first look at the weekend market.
Currently, the price is stuck near 64,800, and over the weekend it has been grinding between 64,600 and 65,000. It can't fall, nor can it rise again. Resistance remains at 65,000-65,500 above, while 63,800-64,000 below is a short-term support line.
On Monday, US stocks will open with increased liquidity. If the market can rise above 65,000 after the open, there is a short-term chance to test 65,500-66,000. If it can't hold, it will likely continue to move within this range, or test near 63,800 before seeking direction.
The approach to trading is quite straightforward:
• If it pulls back near 64,000-64,200, if it doesn't break, you can lighten your position and try going long, stop below 63,800, with a target of 64,800-65,000.
• If volume breaks through 65,000 and it holds steady, you can chase a bit, stop loss at 64,800, target 65,500-66,000.
• If it falls below 63,800, short-term bearish is the first time, targeting 62,800-63,000.My answer is: maybe it can! Over the weekend, watching $XAU surge past $4300, then reach 4354 and even test 4370, bullish sentiment across the internet was reignited. Macro positive news has indeed piled up: the U.S. July nonfarm payroll data was disappointing, sparking market concerns about an economic slowdown, significantly weakening expectations for Fed rate hikes, and causing the US dollar index to decline all the way. Against this backdrop, safe-haven funds have poured into gold, pushing the market to new highs. However, rushing to short at 4350 or even 4370 carries significant risk. Because the bulls are very inert now, blocking this high-speed train halfway up the mountain is easy to be forcibly overwhelmed. My core logic: The real high P/E short spot is above $4500. Why do I set the short line above $4500? First, liquidity hunting. The main force has never driven prices up to cash out retail investors, but rather to seek higher liquidity at the top. 4300-4350 is only the first stage of the breakout. The market often uses a fierce "ultimate squeeze" to lure and kill all the short sellers, while attracting all retail investors to chase long frantically. The very strong psychological level of $4500 is the best liquidation endpoint. Second, an excellent profit-loss ratio. Short near 4350, it's hard to set a stop-loss position; But if the price surges above $4,500, this will not only trigger a tightening correction in the overbought zone but also a temporary profit$XAU This rebound in gold is something ordinary people shouldn't chase
It's just that after falling too much, you can catch your breath—it's not the bull market that's back.
But why did gold rise? Actually, this is only temporary.
Direct reason: US employment data is not looking good, and people think the Fed is afraid to raise rates aggressively. With the dollar falling and Treasury yields falling as well, the pressure of holding gold without "paying interest" is much less.
Supporting factors: The Middle East has calmed down a bit, oil prices have dropped, and inflation is no longer as alarming.
Who is buying: Central banks around the world have been secretly hoarding gold in large quantities, and with funds flowing back into gold ETFs, prices have been pushed even further.
This wave is just a chance to catch your breath after a big drop—don't chase it like a major bull market. If you really want to pair it with gold, buy some physical gold bars as a long-term asset as your safeguard—it's safer than chasing gains and selling losses.
#黄金升破4300美元, are the funds at risk of interest rate cuts or safe havens? To put it simply: the lukewarm reception of BIP-110 and the lagging forked chains precisely prove that Bitcoin's evolution logic has changed—it no longer pursues radical experiments but prioritizes "stability" above all.
This is not community laziness but a rational choice of a mature system.
First, about BIP-110, it’s not that it’s coldly received, it’s been deliberately shelved.
Someone proposed a new idea to change the consensus rules, but the community response was lukewarm. The reason is simple: Bitcoin is now a network carrying trillions of dollars in value, and any change must be premised on "not introducing new risks." "If it works, don’t fix it" is not conservatism but responsibility to coin holders. If a consensus vulnerability or rollback risk arises from changes, no one can afford that cost.
In contrast, projects that frequently hard fork or change consensus algorithms may seem lively, but each upgrade results in trust loss. Bitcoin avoids these, which has become its strongest moat.
Looking at forked chains, those who once shouted "surpass Bitcoin" now have none that can compete.
BCH, BSV, BTG... these names were once thunderous, but how many people mention them now? Their problem isn’t technical quality but that after losing Bitcoin’s mainnet effect and hash power moat, they simply cannot build a trust network of the same scale.
Hash power, node count, developer activity, institutional acceptance—these hard metrics show the gap between forked chains and the mainnet is not shrinking but widening. The mainnet remains the big brother; the forks are little siblings barely getting a taste.
This situation tells us one thing: Bitcoin’s moat is no longer technology but "immutable certainty."
BIP-110 being shelved and forked chains marginalized are essentially extensions of the same logic—in a sufficiently decentralized and secure system, any proposal that might disrupt this balance will be automatically filtered out by the market.
So there’s really no need to worry. Bitcoin is like the quiet top student in class—no matter how others mess around, it remains firmly in first place. 😎 On the foundation, every inch of land is worth its weight in gold.
Looking at this report, I don't see boring numbers like "revenue" or "profit"; what I see are three pillars: stablecoin settlement, tokenized assets, and institutional settlement networks. Circle is pouring these into a new foundation—Arc. Names like BlockRock, DTCC, Visa, and Mastercard are posted on the mainnet validator list, which is like putting up a sign on the construction site that reads "Structural Great Wall, Core Tube Set."
Some say USDC's circulating volume dropped 4.8% at the end of the quarter, so they started knocking on load-bearing walls. Outsider. The average circulating volume in Q2 increased by 25%, which is the true tensile strength of rebar. The quarter-end data only shows the temporary elevation of a floor slab during pouring; during construction, concrete shrinkage and formwork shifting were normal. You stared at that temporary elevation map, but couldn't see that the plot's floor area ratio had been approved.
What is Arc? It's not a chain, it's a logistics corridor. It's like looking at a super high-rise—the core value is elevator speed and fire evacuation routes, not the marble lobby. Arc aims to bridge vertical traffic between the stablecoin settlement layer and the institutional asset custody layer. It moves tokenized assets from the "model showroom" into the "structure lab." That's why Visa and Mastercard are on the validator list—they're the vertical elevator suppliers for this building.
The market always focuses on the USD0:1 anchoring rigidity, like focusing only on the compressive strength of concrete. But the maximum height of a skyscraper depends on the synergistic deformation ability of the core tube and the outer frame, and on whether the damper can hold a resident's coffee cup in windy weather. Arc is this damper, welding USDC's settlement momentum with RWA's asset yield genes, upgrading stablecoins from "cash management tools" to "institutional balance sheet fillers."
Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter grew by 8%. 143M, in construction jargon, is the gross margin compliance rate for the project. Don't expect positive cash flow on every floor; you should look at the internal rate of return for the entire project. A 25% year-on-year increase in average float means the project's "clearance rate" is accelerating, which means presale pre-sale properties are selling well and that the startup capital for the next milestone is in place.
On September 16, private networks transitioned to public networks. This is like the main structure topping out, scaffolding starting to be dismantled layer by layer, and curtain wall glass starting to be installed. The real pressure test is just beginning. Blackstone's massive tokenized fund assets are like steel beams, and DTCC's clearing and settlement system is anchor connection nodes. Whether these components can fit seamlessly in a public network environment is the key to whether USDC will build 200 or 400 layers next.
The design notes stated that the biggest risk for the project wasn't financial breakdown, but the construction team crossing over to financial sites without producing structural calculation reports. Arc's current pain points are obvious: validators aren't short of big players, but they need an engine that can handle high concurrency settlements without collapsing.
Anyone involved in architecture understands one thing: a building is great not because it is prepared to become a monument a hundred years from now, but because its foundation sets the direction of a hundred years from the very day construction begins.
The foundation of Arc is laid on the rock layer of the Institution's trust layer. The rest depends on whether it can withstand the first wave of thunderstorms #circlearclaunchDon't ask whether the AI bull market is dead; you should ask whether it has shifted gears.
Don't use the first half's strategy to fit the second half; the first half is a beta market—you can profit from any type of storage. The second half is an alpha market—be selective. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
1. SanDisk's $SNDK :P E is 12 times, plus a 14 billion unexpectedly repurchased amount, plus HBF's first move, and last time it all fell out of cost-effectiveness.
2. SK Hynix: The king of HBM However, its previous valuation was too high and expectations were hyped, so it's best to wait and see how it performs in Q3.
3. Micron $MU: Caught between Samsung and SK Hynix, HBM has the smallest share, beta is the highest, and is also the most dangerous. This risky period for choosing a direction is not recommended for those who haven't invested seriously.
In short: the stored bull market is shifting gears, not stalling. The ticket for the second half is "who can mass-produce the next generation," not "who profited the most from the previous generation."One of the most discussed topics in the Bitcoin community these days is the chain rule divergence triggered by BIP-110. Some miners supporting BIP-110 chose to mine according to their own consensus rules, attempting to establish an independent chain. Roughnecks managed to mine 2 blocks consecutively at one point but then basically stopped extending further, and the related hash power quickly dropped to a very low level. 📉 This is the most critical point of the entire event: the miner support for BIP-110 had long been below 1%, far below its designed 55% activation threshold. After the actual fork occurred, the mainstream Bitcoin network continued to produce blocks normally. The latest community data even shows that the main chain not supporting BIP-110 has clearly taken the lead in cumulative work. Therefore, rather than saying this is a "complete split of the Bitcoin mainnet," it is more accurate to say: 👉 A minority of participants tried to leave the existing consensus rules and create their own chain. The problem is, creating a chain does not equal creating a truly competitive Bitcoin network. You need: ⛏️ Sufficient hash power 🖥️ Enough nodes 💧 Adequate liquidity 🏦 Support from exchanges and custodians 👥 Recognition from users and developers 💰 Most importantly — the market willing to assign it value Currently, BIP-110 has not formed a strong enough network effect in these key dimensions. This incident instead once again demonstrates Bitco$SPCX
Buying $GOOGL = buying half a space ETF?
Alphabet disclosed its 13F holdings as of June 30, 2026, with a securities portfolio of approximately $99.08 billion.
Among them, the space industry accounts for about 97% of the total holdings.
$SPCX approximately $94.18 billion, accounting for about 95% of the entire portfolio.
Additionally, Planet Labs is valued at about $1.17 billion, and AST SpaceMobile at about $795 million.
The three space companies together are valued at about $96.1 billion.
In fact, as early as 2015, Google invested about $900 million to acquire approximately 7.64% equity in $SPCX.
Today, Alphabet discloses its holdings of 551,189,500 shares.
Assuming these shares all come from the current year's investments and are adjusted for the stock split, the cost price is about $1.63 per share.
As of June 30, 2026, $SPCX 170.86 per share, representing a return of approximately 104 times.
The $900 million invested ten years ago has now multiplied a hundredfold.
Buying Google means not just buying Gemini, Search, and Cloud. They also give you half a space ETF 😂In early August 2026, in the cycle position heatmap proposed by Glassnode co-founder Rafael, a rarely mentioned but heavily weighted indicator hit a historic low: the Bitcoin cycle composite index score dropped directly to 19.9. What does this mean? If you look at the historical records, the last time this composite score fell below 20 was at the end of 2022, when the FTX collapse and Bitcoin's price slid straight to the abyss of $15,600. For a time, panic spread across various trading groups, as if a new avalanche was imminent. But this actually hides a counterintuitive phenomenon: among the 45 tracked on-chain and price indicators, 41 (over 91%) have sunk into the lowest two quintiles of their respective cycles, showing a widespread deep blue capitulation pattern. So, does this mean the perfect bottom has been officially established, and we can go all-in with our eyes closed?
The answer may not be as easy as imagined. If we deeply compare the current market situation with the FTX crisis at the end of 2022, many intriguing differences emerge. In the cold winter of November 2022, the entire internet indicator showed an unresistible deep blue—a desperate endgame where retail investors, miners, and lending institutions were all completely liquidated, and liquidity was completely strangled. In August this year, despite a composite score as low as 19.9, activity indicators represented by daily active addresses and actual on-chain transfers showed a hidden resilience amid the fluctuations. In other words, the chain is not a stagnant pool; there is still a large amount of capital secretly engaged in friction movements. Is this resistance to decline and the implicit retention of trading volume good or bad?
From my personal trading history, this divergence is often the source of pain. During that bottom consolidation at the end of 2022, I also watched various on-chain models daily, thinking that after the price bottomed at $15,600, a needle would appear and pull up as usual. To catch the so-called perfect bottom, I repeatedly added positions to the left of resistance, only to lose my mindset during months of narrow bearish declines, repeatedly stopping losses out of fear when inserting needles. The lesson at that time was deeply ingrained: on-chain indicators entering the extreme cold zone indicate the market has entered a high-cost-performance period accumulation zone, but that doesn't mean the market will give you an immediate rebound. Bottom formation is often a jagged process that repeatedly wears down your position patience.
So, since 41 out of 45 indicators have already signaled surrender, why has there been no consensus on a major rebound in the market for so long?
This brings us back to the macro liquidity mechanism we discussed earlier. Although fundamental indicators have been suppressed to the limit at the bottom of the cycle, external US dollar credit and cross-market credit are still in a contraction cycle. In this environment, even if domestic funds want to launch an offensive, they face a situation where they have no money to put into the pot. Even if large funds quietly accumulate funds, they cannot forcibly lift a market lacking depth without external incremental capital support.
This is exactly where the current cycle diverges. On-chain data shows extremely high token resilience; big players are locking positions, but the thickness of buying cannot support a decent trend rally. This causes prices to continue to be torn by extremely cold indicators and dead consolidation until the last unresolved speculator is washed out.
Faced with such an extremely cold reading, I personally kept about 15% margin for error. If the market experiences a final drop in the coming weeks due to a sudden liquidity collapse and breaks through the psychological support line of these 41 indicators, I wouldn't be surprised; in fact, I would fire all my last bullets at that moment. But until then, I will choose to continue lying flat and avoid frequent trading at the midpoint of narrow fluctuations.
Do you think this time, the 19.9 extreme cold score will need months of freezing and consolidation to emerge like it did at the end of 2022? Or will this time end the bottoming out early due to expectations of macro rate cuts?$SPCX The highs were consolidated sideways, falling back to around 135.
Last week, it surged from 105 to 141, up more than 30%. After the lock-up was lifted, it didn't fall but actually rose, forcing bears to close out positions and push it all the way up. But now it's starting to push hard, and it's starting to consolidate at high levels.
My long position was still held, going from 130 to 141 and back to 135, giving back some profits, but still not exiting. I've been thinking about whether to sell or not these past couple of days.
After looking at several signals, options trading volume is amplifying, indicating funds are betting on direction, with a large divergence between bulls and bears.
Short positions still hold about 250 million shares, accounting for 16% of tradable stocks, which is not a low proportion. If bears continue to be forced to close positions, SPCX might still be able to rally. But if selling pressure continues to build, the high-level sideways movement could be the top.
I think this rally is more driven by short-covering after the lock-up is lifted, not by sudden fundamental improvement.
The financial report is good, but the problem of AI capital expenditure being too high remains. Citibank set a target price of 220, but now it's 135, and there is still a long way to go before it reaches 220.
So I'm holding onto long positions for now, but I also know this is just a rebound, not a trend reversal. If I push another wave above 145, I'll consider reducing my position. If it falls below 130, I'll exit too.
$BICO I'm really a bit caught up in this coin. These small coins fluctuate too much. After a sudden rally, they often pull back, and if the timing is off, they get hit back and forth. Its daily chart is still trending downward. It might rebound a bit in the short term, but the overall direction is still bearish.
$BEAT is still at a high level, surging from 2.2 to 3.4, up more than 50%. Last night's rally then pulled back, but today it stabilized somewhat. Volume is still there, buy orders are increasing, so there may still be opportunities in the short term. But chasing in at this level carries considerable risk. If you really want to participate, just try holding a small position.
SanDisk$SNDK is still hovering around 1200. Since falling from 1326, it hasn't rebounded, and even with good news, it hasn't risen. Expectations for AI storage are still being revised, and the market is still in the digesting phase, so it's not my main focus for now.
The trend is coming next week—just wait for the CPI.
#财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? "Say Things Without Saying Anything, Say Things Hard When Nothing Matters"
1. Current Market Environment: Not a comprehensive bull market; rotation remains the main theme
The recent market is not a broad-based trend, but rather a typical rotation of tracks under stock competition. $BTC Maintaining range-bound fluctuations $ETH weak follow-up, indicating that large funds have not yet formed a synergy; In contrast, $SOL and $XRP show stronger resilience, reflecting funds seeking localized excess returns in mainstream assets. Under this pattern, strong intraday stocks (such as $BICO, $MMT, $BEAT, etc.) that chase gains are easily trapped in a "buy high, sell low" cycle—impulse rallies often lack sustainability, liquidity shrinks rapidly the next day, and selling stagnant stocks may miss opportunities to catch up, resulting in two-way losses.
---
2. How to identify the main theme and the "one-day tour" market
Distinguishing between sustainable main themes and short-term sentiment hotspots, the key is to observe the support strength during pullbacks:
· True main sectors (such as AI computing power and memory chips if a trend reversal) usually show clear large buy orders to support the bottom when pullbacks to key moving averages or support levels, with moderately increased trading volume, indicating capital acknowledges the price.
· Sentiment-driven impulse stocks (such as some small-cap tokens) often see shrinking volume or massive turnover during surges. Once the hype fades, buying quickly dries up, and prices can quickly give back gains, sometimes even breaking below the starting point. Currently, the rally in $BICO and other stocks better fits the latter pattern, so caution is needed to buy at high levels.
---
3. External market transmission risks cannot be ignored
US storage chip giants ($SNDK, $MU, $SK HYNIX) have been weakening recently. Although news suggests "selling pressure is easing," their stock prices have yet to stabilize. Projects in the crypto market linked to storage and AI concepts are partly priced by traditional semiconductor cycles and cannot be judged solely based on internal crypto charts. If the US storage sector pushes further downward, it could trigger a follow-up decline in crypto-related assets, suppressing overall market risk appetite and dragging down core assets like BTC.
---
4. Strategic response: Hold your position and wait for a definite signal
1. Avoid frequent switching: The best strategy during rotation periods is to hold high-quality positions already positioned, adding only at key support levels rather than frequently adjusting positions following daily hot topics.
2. Reduce positions in batches at pulse highs: For stocks with large short- or mid-term gains and volume-price divergence, consider securing partial profits on high prices to lower holding costs.
3. Enter after a main line pullback: If you are optimistic about AI or storage direction, wait for them to undergo a full correction (such as testing key moving averages or previous lows), and only enter when a bullish candlestick stabilizes or rebounds with increased volume, avoiding chasing intraday highs.
4. Pay attention to BTC direction selection: The longer the consolidation, the stronger the momentum for market change. If BTC breaks through or breaks below the current range with increased volume, it will trigger increased volatility across the market, and the rotation rhythm may be reshuffled, so contingency plans should be prepared in advance.
---
5. Key Market Observation Indicators
· Spot $ETF Capital Flows: Whether continuous net inflows can be sustained determines whether $BTC can break above resistance levels.
· Deposit stock earnings or industry guidance: If there are signs of demand recovery, it may drive crypto-related stocks to follow; otherwise, caution is warranted.
· Volume changes for high-beta varieties ($BICO, $MMT, $BEAT, etc.): If there is continuous volume shrinkage and a decline, it indicates a cooling sentiment and a decline in short-term participation value.
In short, at this stage, patience should be maintained, using position management to hedge uncertainty, and waiting for the market to provide a clearer resonance direction, rather than being led by short-term fluctuations. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? Hormuz Talks Advance: A New Bullish Catalyst for Oil and Crypto?
One of the most important macro events investors are watching is the latest progress in negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz—the strategic waterway responsible for transporting nearly 20% of the world's oil supply.
According to recent reports, Iran, Oman, and international mediators have made significant progress toward an agreement to restore commercial shipping. However, Tehran insists reopening Hormuz still depends on sanctions relief and broader commitments from the United States.
This mix of diplomatic progress and geopolitical uncertainty has kept oil markets volatile. Optimism over improving supply initially pushed crude prices lower, but ongoing risks quickly reversed part of those losses.
For the crypto market, these developments could become a key macro catalyst.
If the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal operations, energy supply would improve, easing pressure on oil prices and inflation. Lower inflation could strengthen expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve, creating a better liquidity environment for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH.
Meanwhile, easing Middle East tensions could restore global risk appetite. Combined with resilient Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and continued institutional accumulation, this would provide another tailwind for digital assets.
However, no final agreement has been signed. Any collapse in negotiations or renewed regional conflict could send oil prices sharply higher, increase inflation concerns, and delay expectations for easier monetary policy.
For now, HormuzTalksAdvance remains one of 2026's most important macro catalysts. If negotiations succeed, improving liquidity and investor confidence could help fuel the next major rally in $BTC, $ETH, and the broader crypto market.
If you found this analysis helpful, follow me for more high-quality Crypto market insights and updates.
#HormuzTalksAdvance
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
$BTC
$ETH Recently, altcoins have dominated the market
ETF net inflows this week are about $1.1 billion, the strongest single-week inflow since April, but BTC price has never broken 65,500. This indicates institutions are only buying the dip during sideways trading and have no intention to chase highs. So buying on pullbacks to support is safer than chasing breakouts.
Three macro variables
CPI is currently the biggest uncertainty. The non-farm payrolls have already triggered recession expectations, so now it depends on how inflation data moves. If inflation is high, it would be a bearish factor that has already been priced in, possibly leading to a rebound; if inflation is hotter than expected, that would be a real bearish shock and could trigger another sell-off.
The Middle East situation is also heating up, gold has risen quite a bit, and BTC has benefited from short-term safe-haven demand. But if the situation escalates further, risk assets may deleverage first, falling before bouncing back.
Additionally, long-term US Treasury yields remain above 5.2%, and with midterm elections approaching, the macro environment is not one of unilateral easing, so BTC is more likely to move in waves and is unlikely to have a clean main upward trend.