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🔥 This week's data is worth marking on your calendar in advance.
Crude oil, inflation, retail, and central bank statements all have plenty of highlights in all four directions.
Monday was relatively quiet, as the Bank of Japan released a summary of the July monetary policy meeting review committee members' opinions. The Bank of Japan's last meeting was hawkish, and the market needs more details to determine whether to raise rates or hold steady next. The impact of this point on the yen and US dollar indices requires attention.
Two events occurred during Tuesday's Asia-Pacific session. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision, with market expectations to hold steady, with the key to wording. If it turns hawkish, the Australian dollar will move first, which will then be passed on to the US Dollar Index. The Tokyo Stock Exchange will be closed, so liquidity will be low, so don't take the Asian session lightly.
Wednesday is the real highlight.
US July CPI is expected to be 3.0% year-on-year, compared to the previous 3.3%. On the surface, it seems moderate, but the risk lies in oil prices rising significantly in July, and energy may push overall data higher. If it exceeds expectations, the September rate hike spark will reignite, significantly increasing pressure on risk assets.
On the same day, there were EIA crude oil inventories and OPEC monthly reports. Considering that both Hormuz and the Black Sea energy corridors are facing issues simultaneously, any supply-side data will be magnified and interpreted. If OPEC lowers its demand forecast, oil prices may face short-term pressure; If it raises it, inflation expectations are harder to suppress.
On Thursday, further increases were introduced. Initial jobless claims, PPI, and speeches from Hamack and Balkin. Hamack has clearly voted on rate hikes; if she continues to hawkish, market concerns about a rate hike in September will flare up again. If PPI exceeds expectations, it will also set the stage for a lagging CPI response.
Friday's retail sales and Michigan inflation expectations. If retail sales are weak, the recession narrative will resurface; If strong, it could push up inflation expectations. Michigan's inflation expectations are strong and have a stronger outlook than CPI itself.
For BTC, there is only one core variable — CPI.
If CPI moderately falls below 3.0%, the market will reprice "rate cut expectations," and risk assets may see a corrective rebound. BTC may retest the 68,000 resistance level.
If CPI exceeds expectations at 3.2% or higher, rate cut expectations will fade further, putting pressure on both tech stocks and BTC. BTC may retest the 60,000 support level, or even briefly break below it.
In terms of operations, control positions before CPI release to avoid heavy bets before data is released. During periods of rising volatility, contract positions should be reduced. During geopolitical variables combined with data-intensive periods, the margin for error in direction judgment is extremely low.
👇 What do you think about next week's CPI data? Can BTC withstand this wave of pressure? Let's talk in the comments.Next week, the real focus of U.S. stocks will be trading is not non-farm payrolls, but inflation.
Last week's nonfarm payrolls already indicated that U.S. employment is cooling down.
But weakening employment is not necessarily a bad thing for U.S. stocks. What the market most wants to confirm now is:
Can inflation come down along with it?
Five key things to watch next week:
(1) CPI: The most critical data for the week
If CPI continues to cool down, rate cut expectations will intensify further, with tech growth stocks, gold, and BTC typically benefiting more.
Weak employment + low inflation = interest rate cut deals continue
But if CPI rebounds, things get complicated:
Weak employment + high inflation = rising risk of stagflation
This is the script the market least wants to see.
(2) PPI and retail sales: With prices falling, can consumption remain stable?
The ideal state is:
Inflation continues to fall, but American consumers have not lost momentum.
If prices cool and consumption can hold up, expectations for a soft landing will continue to rise.
(3) AI hardware financial reports: Stop telling stories, just look at orders
Next, the financial reports of servers, optical communications, and semiconductor equipment companies will still verify one question:
Has AI capital spending actually cooled down?
Now, the market is more concerned not about the "great prospects for AI," but whether orders, revenue, and capital expenditures continue to grow.
(4) Crude oil: the hidden variable of inflation
If oil prices surge again, it could likely drive up inflation expectations.
Oil prices rose → narrowed room for rate cuts→ US Treasury yields came under pressure, → tech stock valuations were affected
(5) Global liquidity: Beware of sudden amplified volatility
The yen, US dollar, and US Treasury yields are all worth watching.
Once carry trades are concentrated and unwinding, high-volatility assets like the Nasdaq and BTC may see significant short-term volatility.
So, the logic for next week's market is actually quite simple:
Last week, jobs were traded; next week, inflation is traded.
There are mainly three types of scripts:
✅ Weak employment + low inflation = interest rate cut deals continue
⚠️ Weak employment + high inflation = rising risk of stagflation
❌ Worsening employment + slowing consumption = shift to recession trading
For US stocks, the most comfortable state is always:
The economy can cool down, but it cannot slow down; Inflation can fall, but it cannot rebound.
In short: Next week, what will truly determine the market's direction is whether the CPI can open the door for the Fed to cut rates.#比特币 #BIP110 Proposal cools down: Forked chains fall behind, mainnet continues as usual
This is not a "fork feast," but more like a farce doomed to fail from the start.
Recently, the Bitcoin community has once again been embroiled in controversy over BIP-110.
Simply put, supporters believe Bitcoin's block space is being occupied by inscriptions, images, and various non-payment data, increasing node burden and disrupting the fee market. Therefore, they hope to restrict such transactions through rules to focus more on Bitcoin's "currency" function.
But the opponents' views are also very direct:
One type of transaction can be restricted today, and another might be restricted tomorrow.
Is this really protecting Bitcoin, or is it adding artificial censorship to the protocol?
The real embarrassment is—miners don't seem to be buying it.
Large mining pools have very limited support signals for BIP-110, and only a few miners are truly willing to invest hash power.
So, supporters tried to launch their own fork chains.
And what happened?
The mainnet keeps moving forward, but forked chains are slowing down.
Only one or two blocks can be mined in a few hours, and the gap with the Bitcoin mainnet keeps widening. Even if some small mining pools continue to mine, their hash power is far from enough for this chain to catch up normally.
Some even joked on X:
"We originally wanted to save Bitcoin, but it turned into a stress test—mining two blocks in 8 hours, and the next difficulty adjustment would take 350 days 😂."
This is reality.
Without sufficient computing power, capital, and genuine consensus, even the most aggressive protocol proposals are unlikely to become Bitcoin's new rules.
More importantly, miners ultimately face one of the most realistic issues:
Profit.
Miners won't keep losing money long-term just because a narrative is idealistic.
Whoever can provide better economic incentives is more likely to obtain computing power support.
Therefore, attempts to restrict fee income or alter miners' economic interests through tough measures face enormous practical resistance.
Bitcoin's history has repeatedly proven:
A hard fork without broad consensus can easily end up as an edge chain.
Some past forks have at least created new asset and market opportunities, but this time, ordinary $BTC holders don't even need to expect "free airdrops" or "new token bonuses."
Because for the market, the most important thing is actually quite simple:
The Bitcoin mainnet is still operating normally.
Blocks continue to produce, networks keep running, $BTC or $BTC.
As for whether inscriptions, images, and low-value data should exist or not?
In the end, it is left to the market and economic incentives for fees.
Truly valuable transactions willing to pay fees will gain block space; If low-value data costs increase, it will naturally be squeezed out by the market.
There is no need for any group to act as the "moral judges" for Bitcoin.
So, for ordinary investors:
There's no need to panic over BIP-110, nor FOMO because of forked narratives.
The mainnet is still the same mainnet.
Bitcoin's true power has never been a single proposal, but rather:
Consensus + computing power + economic incentives + global network.
Miners pursue profit, the market determines value, and nodes determine rules.
Rule changes without consensus are just self-entertainment; Forks without hash power support are also hard to truly shake up Bitcoin.
Eventually, time filters out the noise.
The Bitcoin mainnet continues to move forward.
#DailyOrbit 📊 AI Demand Is Still Strong — But Beating Expectations Is Getting Much Harder
The latest earnings from the memory and storage sector highlight an important shift: strong AI demand alone is no longer enough to push stocks higher.
Western Digital reported around $3.75B in quarterly revenue and $3.56 in adjusted EPS, yet the stock still came under pressure.
SanDisk delivered an equally strong quarter, with roughly $8.97B in revenue. But expectations were already extremely high. Investors weren’t simply looking for strong results — they wanted guidance pointing to another acceleration in growth.
That tells us a lot about where the market stands today.
The question is no longer whether AI will drive massive demand for memory and storage. That thesis is already priced into expectations.
Now the market wants to know whether manufacturers can sustain:
🔹 Pricing power
🔹 Tight supply
🔹 Expanding margins
🔹 Strong, durable earnings growth
—all while supporting valuations that already assume years of aggressive AI-driven expansion.
AI demand can stay strong and stocks can still struggle if expectations are even stronger.
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#SpaceXShortCovering Guys, $BTC I really feel this position is a watershed moment. The market change is very likely to happen in the next few days.
A net inflow of $865.3 million over five days sounds impressive, but on the last day, it dropped to just $101.7 million, with the token price still stuck around $64,800.
Most importantly, it made 244.4 million yuan in a single day during the week, shrinking to 101.7 million yuan by Friday.
The buyers didn't die, but they didn't keep pushing forward.
What does this mean?
Money is the foundation, not the sedan chair.
Personally, I tend to view this as "funds supporting the market and moving sideways," rather than confirming the main upward wave.
If the 65,500 yuan can't be recovered, the Air Force still has a say; If the 64,100 yuan is smashed again, the 63,200 yuan will basically be knocked on.
What I focus on is not whether I can still enter the ETF, but whether the 65,500 can hold steadily.
If you can't stand up, those chasing cash flows and calling for breakthroughs may have to pay tuition first.BTCUSDT + Comprehensive Analysis of Next Week's US CPI Expectations
Market Status:
A critical window for BTC directional choice.
1. Current Technical Position of BTC
Currently:
BTC ≈ 65,200
Technical Status:
✅ Price has reclaimed above 65000
✅ Contract CVD continues to improve (active buying increased)
✅ OI has not surged wildly (no obvious leverage bubble)
✅ Funding rate 0.0049, slightly bullish but healthy
However:
⚠️ Spot CVD remains weak (around -40K)
Explanation:
The current rise:
Is more driven by contract funds,
No large-scale spot institutional buying seen yet.
2. Market Expectations for Next Week's CPI
The market is mainly focused on:
US CPI (inflation)
Key points:
Overall CPI
Core CPI
Month-over-month changes
Market expectation direction:
High probability:
Inflation continues to decline moderately, but not very rapidly.
My forecast:
Scenario probabilities:
🟢 Scenario 1: CPI below expectations (bullish)
Probability:
About 45%
For example:
Core CPI below market expectations.
Market reaction:
USD ↓
US Treasury yields ↓
Rate cut expectations ↑
Nasdaq ↑
BTC ↑
BTC may:
Break through:
66000
Targets:
68000
70000
Even:
72000
🟡 Scenario 2: CPI meets expectations (sideways)
Probability:
About 40%
Outcome:
Market will not significantly reprice.
BTC:
Likely:
Range-bound between 64000-67000.
Waiting for follow-up:
Fed speeches.
🔴 Scenario 3: CPI above expectations (bearish)
Probability:
About 15%
If:
Core inflation rebounds.
Market:
USD rises
US Treasury yields rise
Risk assets under pressure.
BTC may:
Break below:
64000
Targets:
62000
60000
3. Combined BTC Indicator Projection
If CPI is low:
Technical conditions:
BTC is near a breakout level.
Possible sequence:
CPI bullish
↓
Break 66000
↓
Short stop-loss triggered
↓
Accelerated rise
↓
68000-70000
Because:
Shorts currently lack extreme advantage.
If CPI meets expectations:
More likely:
Sideways consolidation.
Range:
64000-67000
Trading:
Buy low, sell high.
If CPI is high:
Because currently:
Spot CVD is weak
Possible sequence:
CPI bearish
↓
Break 64000
↓
Long stop-loss
↓
Test 62000
4. BTC Key Prices (combined with CPI)
Before CPI:
Long defense:
64000
Very important.
Holding this level:
Maintains upward structure.
Break confirmation:
66000
Breakout:
Opens:
68000-70000.
Risk level:
63000
Break below:
Market turns weak again.
5. Trading Strategy Before CPI Release
I would not recommend:
❌ Heavy long positions before CPI
More reasonable:
Plan A (bullish bias)
Wait for:
BTC pullback:
64500-65000
Go long:
Stop loss:
63800
Targets:
66000
68000
70000
Plan B (breakout)
After CPI:
BTC stabilizes above:
66000
Chase longs:
Targets:
68000-70000
Plan C (bearish)
Break below:
64000
Short:
Around 63800
Targets:
62000
60000
6. My Comprehensive Judgment
Combine:
BTC technicals + CPI expectations + market structure
My inclination:
Next week BTC direction:
🟢 Slightly bullish
Probability:
About 60%
Reasons:
BTC has completed consolidation after a big drop
OI is not overheated
Contract CVD improving
Market still expects rate cuts
If CPI declines moderately, it will be a catalyst
However:
Biggest risk:
No obvious spot capital inflow.
So I think:
If CPI is bullish, BTC has a high chance to break 70000;
If CPI meets expectations, continue sideways;
If CPI exceeds expectations, first pull back to 62000 area.
My key observations:
📌 At CPI release moment:
US 10-year Treasury yield direction
US Dollar Index DXY
Whether BTC spot CVD turns positive
If all three support risk assets:
BTC next target:
70000 → 72000 我是老高，ETF的钱，真回来了。
8月3号到7号这一周，美国现货比特币ETF净流入8.65亿美元，创下近15周新高。其中贝莱德IBIT一家就吞了6.94亿，机构在65000刀附近持续接盘，一点不怂。以太坊ETF也没闲着，同步净流入2.44亿，连续五周保持正流入。
这个数字得放在两个背景里看：
7月份ETF连续多日净流出，市场情绪偏弱，BTC从66000+被锤回62000附近。
8月非农数据一出来，转负，加息概率直接从50%以上被打到44%，宏观预期边际转鸽。ETF资金秒变脸，流出转流入，反应快得像抢跑。资金对利率预期的敏感度就这么高，只要加息概率压住，买盘就敢上。
贝莱德一家独占80%的流入量，这不是散户在抄底，是大资金在65000一线做配置。贝莱德从来不是来玩短线的，人家是来布长局的。ETF资金回流，说明主流资产的买盘正在恢复，但BTC和ETH能不能真正接力往上走，还得看三个硬条件：
第一，宏观利率预期不能反复，加息概率别再飙回50%以上；
第二，市场风险偏好不能崩，美股别来个大跳水；
第三，现货成交量得跟上，缩量上涨就是耍流氓。
三个里最关键的，还是下周CPI。
CPI偏弱——降息预期升温，BTC直接捅破65500，冲67000。
CPI偏强——加息预期卷土重来，BTC回踩63500~64000，ETF资金会先观望，但不会跑。
现在BTC就在65000附近横着，非农已经把桌子掀了一半，另一半等CPI来掀。ETF回流是增量信号，但65000的有效突破，必须等CPI来盖章。数据落地之前，别重仓赌方向，止损挂好，方向清了再跟进。
ETF在买，主力在接，咱就等这阵风。
老高说完了，你细品。#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ $BTC $ETH $BICO
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？
#财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？ 24-hour two-way long-short battle! Liquidated $417 million across the entire network, 90% of liquidations stem from a fatal mistake | The iron rules of risk control for anti-explosion warehouses must be read carefully
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced a textbook-level two-way shakeout: first driving up to lure short sellers, then dumping to accumulate long positions. Total contract liquidations across the network reached $417 million, with large-scale liquidations in both long and short directions, and countless high-leverage accounts wiped out. This round of rally features distinctive features: the collective weakness in the US storage sector triggered a broad bullish stamp, combined with the positive positive impact of large positions locked in mainstream coins triggering short squeezes, with leveraged funds on both sides being harvested simultaneously.
1. 24-hour summary of core data for clearing across the entire network
Total scale of forced liquidations across the entire network: $417,000,000
Long liquidation amount: $274 million, accounting for 65.7% of total liquidations
Short liquidation amount: $143 million, accounting for 34.3% of total liquidations
Complete list of the top 15 coins by liquidation amount:
1. $BTC Bitcoin
Total liquidation amounted to $146 million, with long positions liquidating 71%. The key support level at 64,200 was quickly breached, and chain stop orders were triggered in concentrated numbers, making it the core hardest-hit area for this round of liquidations.
2. $ETH Ethereum
Total liquidation amounted to $82 million, with long positions accounting for 75%. At the 2380 level, a large amount of long-selling leverage accumulated, and after the market plunged, a stampede occurred.
3. $SOL Solana
Total liquidation amounted to 51 million USD, with balanced liquidation in both directions. After a short-term positive pulse surge, the market's selling pressure quickly pulled back, and all leverage in the 74–76 range was completely cleared.
4. $ENA
Total liquidation amounted to $36 million, with short positions concentrated in liquidation, 42 million tokens staked and locked by whales driving up the trend, and collective forced liquidation triggered by short positions around 1.28.
5. $AR storage public chain
Total liquidation amounted to $20.6 million, mainly from long positions. The sharp decline in US storage chips spread across the board, with bulls at the 47-point level selling losses concentrated in exit.
6. $XRP Ripple
Total liquidation amounted to $14.3 million, with long positions liquidated, cross-border payment benefits digested early, and funds fleeing from high profits.
7. $DOGE Dogecoin
Total liquidation amounted to $10.5 million, with long positions liquidated. Negative sentiment spread in the aerospace sector, and liquidity in the Meme sector was rapidly declining.
8. $FIL
Total liquidation amounted to 7.9 million USD, with long positions liquidated. The valuation of the storage sector was revised downward in tandem, and sector linkage declined.
9. $PEPE
Total liquidation amounted to $7.1 million, with long positions liquidated, market risk aversion heating up, and high-volatility small-cap MEME stocks being the first to be sold off.
10. $XLM Stellar Coin
Total liquidation amounted to 6.2 million USD, with two-way clearing. Cross-border financial news was realized, intraday volatility was maxed out, and both bulls and bears suffered losses.
11. $ORDI
Total liquidations amounted to $4.8 million, with long positions liquidated. BTC's weakness dragged down the inscription sector, causing collective capital withdrawals.
12. $LINK oracle
Total liquidation amounted to $4.1 million, with long liquidations. Even with long-term RWA narratives, it still couldn't withstand macro chain selling pressure.
13. $TIA modular public chain
Total liquidation amount: $3.5 million, long positions liquidated, long-term narrative funds in a volatile environment with reduced attention.
14. $AVAX
Total liquidation amounted to 3.2 million USD, with long positions liquidated, incremental funds continuously flowing into SOL, causing severe sector capital divergence.
15. $WIF
Total liquidation amount: $2.8 million, long liquidation, high-beta Meme assets, large liquidations at slight market fluctuations.
2. The two main core drivers of this round of large-scale two-way liquidation
1. Cross-market linkage sell-offs, diverting macro liquidity
International gold prices held above $4,230, with safe-haven funds continuously flowing into gold, drawing a large amount of incremental liquidity from the crypto market; The US Nasdaq heavyweight was diverging, storage stocks plunged collectively, and the crypto storage sector was under simultaneous pressure. Currently, cross-market asset correlation has greatly increased, and negative US stock news will directly affect crypto growth coins, shattering bullish confidence and triggering a series of stop-loss orders.
2. Institutional liquidity inducement bullish and bearish double kill tactic
Major funds leveraged the positive momentum of $ENA pledges to boost the market, short-term short squeeze to harvest the bears; After the US session opened, the US stock market quickly dumped on the negative news of falling US deposits, precisely breaking through key support levels across major currencies.
3. Four Strict Risk Control Guidelines for Experienced Traders to Prevent Explosion Positions (A Must-Read for Extreme Market Conditions)
1. Disable cross-margin mode to isolate the risk of a single position
In this round, over 76% of zero-down accounts used all cross-margin margins. Many traders, after unrealized losses on a certain currency, started reverse currency hedging. Currently, the entire sector is highly interconnected, and negative US stock news simultaneously suppresses public blockchains, storage, and MEME, completely invalidating the hedge and ultimately causing the entire account to be liquidated.
Practical requirements: All contracts must uniformly switch to isolated margin; losses in a single currency are only isolated in the corresponding position and will not affect the entire principal.
2. Stop loss to avoid integer levels and rely on ATR for dynamic settings
Institutional tactics: insert small pins below integer support levels like 64,000 or 2,380 to sweep out retail investors' stop-loss orders in bulk.
Practical requirements: Stop loss should not be close to the support line. Use the ATR's true volatility as the baseline, set a 1.5x ATR distance below the support level, leaving enough volatility buffer to avoid passive exit with false insertion needles.
3. Strictly control leverage limits and increase the strong parity safety cushion
In this 417 million yuan liquidation, 83% of liquidated orders had leverage exceeding 20 times, and even the slightest reverse fluctuation triggered forced liquidation. Currently, macro volatility is at a high level, and cross-market linkage risks persist.
Practical requirements: Maximum leverage for conventional markets is 5x; for sharp volatility, it can drop below 3x. Margin price and current price should be left with more than 30% volatility, eliminating full-leverage gambling for short-term markets.
4. Do not rely on news to heavily bet on one side
Good news comes in the face of negative news, which has become the norm in the market: $ENA pledge positive momentum followed a pullback, and the storage sector's strong earnings report continued to plunge. The pulse market driven by news is very short-lived, and heavy positions and chase orders are easily harvested by major players.
Practical requirements: After positive or negative news materializes, no new positions are allowed. Wait until the market has fully digested and the structure stabilizes before taking a light position.
Market summary
This round of large-scale liquidation is a result of cross-market valuation repricing and leveraged clearing. Currently, market volatility remains high, and a one-way trend has not yet formed. Blindly heavy positions carry huge loss risks. Short-term observation is key. Once sentiment in the US semiconductor and gold markets stabilizes, investors can buy main narrative coins on dips. Principal safety always takes precedence over short-term profits. The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please use this with caution.SNDK$ at 1218, do you dare to bottom-fish?
Let's look at the surface first: the financial report exceeded expectations, but the stock price plunged
Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, EPS was 39.25, exceeding expectations, and gross margin soared to 85%—a legend-level figure in any industry. So what happened? After hours, it plunged 7-9%, from 2354 to around 1218, and another 12% in the past five days
First: The guidance is "slightly soft," but you overlook the most crucial number
Q1 FY27 guidance revenue was 10.3-10.8 billion, with a median of 10.55 billion, below some optimistic expectations of 10.9 billion. So the market interpreted this as slowing growth and decided to pay respects first
SanDisk has secured minimum revenue for over 50% of FY27 capacity and about two-thirds of FY28 capacity, totaling $94 billion, plus $16.5 billion in financial guarantees, with a median contract length of up to four years
Second thing: 15 billion yuan buybacks are in full swing, management is telling you I'm cheap
The report also announced an additional 14 billion in repurchase authorization, bringing the remaining total to 15.5 billion USD. At the current stock price of around 12 million, over 12 million shares could be repurchased, accounting for about 6-7% of total circulating circulation
Listed companies know their value best. When a company is willing to spend $15 billion to buy back its shares, there are only two possibilities: either the management is crazy, or the stock is severely undervalued
Third: AI storage narratives are underrated; HBF is the real killer weapon
Most people only see the NAND price increase cycle, missing the most crucial long-term logic.
SanDisk and SK hynix are advancing the High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) OCP standard, with Google participating, specializing in AI inference and near-memory computing. BiCS10 1Tb TLC has been sampled, further improving density, power consumption, and performance.
AI inference requires flash memory close to compute units, low latency, and high bandwidth—this is exactly what HBF solves.
More details are likely to be released on August 13 at Investor Day. This is the next big catalyst $SNDK #存储股抛压缓和. Is the AI memory bull market still stable? According to the pattern of past midterm elections, October is the best time to buy. Prices start rising in early October, and before election day, the November 3 election has an average maximum drawdown of 16%. The Nasdaq rises for 12 months after the election, with 100% returns. Without exception, buying the S&P on election day means you will make steady profits the following year, with an average return of 18.6%. This has been the case since 1950!
$BTC On Friday (August 7), the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to close above 7,780 points, setting a new closing record. The Dow rose 0.28%, the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, and the weekly gains were the largest since mid-April. The driving force behind this new high was interesting—not because the economy was too strong, but because the July nonfarm payroll unexpectedly turned negative. With weak employment, the pressure to raise interest rates instantly eased, and the market is betting that the Fed won't dare tighten further, so liquidity expectations are expected to ease first.
This kind of "bad news is good news" rally is essentially money finding an outlet. As interest rate expectations decline, the dollar and US Treasury yields softened, benefiting risk assets across the board. The S&P is less than 3% away from 8000 points. At this momentum, planting flags before year-end is not a dream; sectors like optical communications and AI are still accelerating funding.
Crypto is also getting the soup. BTC is currently holding around $64,000, ETH around $1,870. Although the gains have lagged behind US stocks, the logic is the same: cooling rate hike expectations + liquidity easing expectations. Historically, when US stock risk appetite rebounds, some funds tend to flow into crypto, but this round is slow—ETF funds are still waiting, while BTC repeatedly tests the 65,000 resistance level.
The core contradiction is one: Is the nonfarm payroll data a one-time disturbance or a trend turning point? If CPI weakens in line with this, the US stock market hitting 8,000 points and $BTC breaking through 65,000 may be realized together; If inflation rebounds, both sides will be hammered. Don't get carried away; keep an eye on the data.On the evening of August 9, $BTC hit a high of $65,300. The price looked strong, but the 24-hour increase was only 0.22%. The biggest problem this weekend wasn't the stagnation, but the thin trading volume. A little buying could push prices up. Tomorrow, Monday, traditional markets and institutional funds will reopen, and this rally will truly be handed over. The market is still trading the same ugly nonfarm payrolls. US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, and were revised down by 103,000 in May and June combined. Cooling employment has made capital bet on the Fed to avoid further rate hikes. But the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, wages have risen 3.2% year-on-year, and hawks have not completely exited. The next big day for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report is August 12, when the US will release July CPI. Inflation continues to cool, so this rebound has a chance to rise; Data has hardened again, and the early weekend bulls are likely to get hit first. CPI release schedule: BTC should first focus on 65,300–65,400 USD tomorrow. If volume stabilizes, the next step will be 66,000; If it falls back below 64,700 after Monday's open, it can basically be judged that this weekend break is likely false. The more important level below is around 64,150. $ETH Currently around 1,926 USD, the trend is more stable than in previous days, but the 1,945–1,950 level has yet to be passed. Only a breakout here qualifies for further rebound; If 1,910 cannot hold, it may return to rub around 1,895. $SOL has already reached 76.94 USD, close to the recent high of 77#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
This round of adjustment in storage stocks isn't about losing logic, but rather about the market starting to re-price its valuation after the previous rapid rally.
SanDisk and Western Digital actually performed well, even exceeding expectations, but the problem is that the guidance is cautious. Funds are now focused not on how much they earned in the past, but on whether AI storage demand can continue to support high valuations.
From the news front, leverage selling pressure in the Korean market has eased, and volatility has declined, indicating signs of earlier panic selling. SK Hynix's continued capacity expansion also indicates that the supply chain is not pessimistic about long-term demand.
But short-term trading cannot rely solely on the story.
The expansion cycle, valuation pressures, and cautious guidance will all keep the sector highly volatile.
My view is:
The logic behind the AI memory bull market still holds, but in the short term, it has moved from sentiment to a performance verification phase.
If subsequent demand is met and corporate guidance stabilizes, the correction in storage stocks will be more like a repricing after the leverage wave retreats;
If performance can't keep up with valuations, high-level fluctuations and differentiation will continue.
Therefore, this is not the time to blindly chase highs, nor is there a need to be completely bearish just because of a pullback.
Once selling pressure eases and the trend stabilizes again, look for a more comfortable price-to-loss ratio.Frankly, the wealth dividend in the crypto world has long since faded significantly.
Since $BTC began this upward cycle in 2024, ETF approvals, favorable policies, large-scale institutional moves, political figures endorsing the market, and expectations of Fed rate cuts have all materialized, but the overall gains have fallen far short of expectations. Various strategies such as coin accumulation and short-term arbitrage have emerged in the market, and the market narrative has basically spread out, but the large volume of incremental off-exchange funds is far less abundant than people expected.
The industry has officially bid farewell to the more than decade-long period of wild growth and fully entered the era of stock competition
Many investors have exhausted their principal and exited, with large amounts of funds redirected to the AI sector and the US stock market. Most players holding the crypto space are left with only on-market funds competing back and forth.
The key point is: without a continuous flow of off-exchange incremental funds and the disappearance of the overall profit-making effect, it is difficult for a broad bull market to emerge out of thin air.
Simply copying past candlestick patterns or imagining a market surge out of thin air is completely untenable. Nowadays, market rules are increasingly refined, and the gaps that used to be easy to exploit for arbitrage are tightening. Institutions now only rely on cycle-based highs and lows to recover and cut off swing profits.
If the market is always dominated by only existing funds cycling back and forth, it will be difficult to see a full-scale bull market in the future. Most likely, only occasional local sector rallies will occur, which is the core reason why the medium- to long-term rally will maintain wide fluctuations for $ETH $SOL The highly anticipated "first quadruped robot stock," Unitree Technology, will officially open its STAR Market IPO online subscription tomorrow. Based on current market information, the profitable effect of this IPO subscription may be quite substantial. Core Data Overview: The issuance price for this issuance is 150.8 yuan per share, with a planned issuance of 40.4464 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total share capital after issuance. Based on this, the total share capital after issuance is approximately 404 million shares. The winning lot is 500 shares, meaning you need to prepare about 75,400 yuan in subscription funds. On the trading platform Trade.xyz, Unitree Technology's latest pre-IPO perpetual contract price is $87.525, approximately 590 RMB. This price is 3.91 times the issue price. The biggest highlight is the profit estimate for $SPCX. If calculated based on the above 590 yuan contract reference price, a single contract of 500 shares would be worth about 295,000 yuan. After deducting the cost of 75,400 yuan, the potential profit from the single contract is about 220,000 yuan. This means that relative to the subscription amount, its potential yield could reach as high as 291%. To summarize briefly: judging from the current pre-market trading heat, the market has high expectations for Unitree Technology's performance on its first day of listing. If the contract price is reliable, this IPO subscription will be a high-investment, high-return gamble. Of course, pre-market prices only reflect market expectations; the final performance will depend on the official trading results after tomorrow's trading.Weekend review, took a look at last Friday's market.
QQQ rose 1.17%, while SPY only followed with 0.6%, the gap is quite noticeable.
The hot dog indicator (that fund flow thing) shows tech stocks are still attracting capital, but the overall market is cautious, not exactly a full risk on. It feels more like institutions are concentrating their buying on a few top tech heavyweights, while other stocks barely moved.
Short-term momentum should still be there; money that goes in won’t run out the next day. But the real test is ahead—can SPY catch up? If financials, industrials, and other sectors can follow, the rebound will have better sustainability, and with broader participation, it’s easier for everyone.
If it still relies on a few tech giants to carry the index and volume shrinks, then the quality of this rebound is questionable. This pattern has been seen several times over the past year; once the heavyweights pause, the whole market softens.
I know many have good floating profits in tech stocks, but I still recommend paying more attention to market breadth, not just your own holdings. This indicator explains the situation better than the rise and fall of individual stocks, something I only started to value after losing money.
Tomorrow at the open, I’ll watch how SPY moves. If it doesn’t follow, I might reduce my positions.
Not bearish, just structurally uneasy. Just jotting down some thoughts for reference.
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Weekend review notes, not investment advice. #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 在加密世界的漫长历史中，很少有资产像Zcash（ZEC）这样，经历过如此漫长而令人绝望的沉沦。对于在2024年入场的新一代交易员来说，ZEC几乎是一个只存在于远古教科书中的僵尸代币，长期在30至40美元的泥潭里装死，被市场打上了彻底死亡的标签。当时，我也倾向于认为，这部分被遗忘的古典PoW资产已经丧失了所有弹性，只配留在垃圾堆里。然而，当你今天把ZEC/BTC的周线图拉开，看着那条压制了九年之久的巨型下降楔形上轨被一根突破阳线横扫，且现货价格一路收复并站稳500美元支撑位时，你不得不感叹：市场的记忆或许很短，但波动制造的惩罚却极其暴力。
这一场出人意料的九年大出狱，其背后的催化剂并非简单的投机喊单，而是由一次被低估的硬核技术升级和供给侧黑洞所驱动的。
在7月28日，Zcash顺利完成了Ironwood（NU6.3）网络升级。这次升级不仅是一次代码层面的常规迭代，更在事实上引发了隐私币历史上面积最大的一次资产大迁徙。根据最新的链上数据，NU6.3激活后，短短几天内就有超过133万枚ZEC被转移进了全新的Ironwood屏蔽池中。这相当于全网流通供给量的7.9%被一键锁死在了隐私护盾之后。
在微观经济学里，这就是典型的供给侧浮动筹码压缩。当近8%的流动代币在极短时间内退出了二级市场的卖盘循环，变成屏蔽池内无法被追踪的休眠筹码时，供给的短缺便不可避免。
更重要的是，这只是Zcash本轮飞轮的开始。紧随其后的是即将于8月25日开启的NU7升级 coinholder 治理投票。这次持续18天的投票，决定着 Project Tachyon 以及 Orchard 级抗量子攻击恢复方案等核心扩容协议能否正式并入主网。根据规则，投票必须有至少100万枚ZEC锁定在Ironwood投票系统中才算有效。
这代表着，在未来数月内，不仅二级的浮动供给会被进一步抽干，治理权与锁仓收益的双重预期，正在把ZEC变成一个不断吞噬现货流动性的黑洞。
回看这一轮隐私币的复苏，我们能得到一个极具价值的博弈启示。在2026年1月SEC正式宣告结束对Zcash基金会的调查后，笼罩在这个老牌资产头顶最大的合规阴云已经消散。当一个曾经的白马资产，在价格打折到极致、筹码洗得最干净的阶段，突然迎来了合规解封与供给侧极度收缩的双重共振，它的爆发力往往超出所有人的常规想象。
虽然老一代投资者还在对隐私币在各大交易所的下架风险疑虑重重，但土耳其以及瑞典等国在房地产、跨境航线等真实支付场景对ZEC shielded 结算的正式接纳，正悄无声息地为其提供真实且合规的价值流。
这再一次证明，在流动性寒冬中，寻找那些被严重错估、但底线坚固且有独特供需结构重塑的古典资产，往往比盲目追逐新发行的项目有更高的盈亏比。
你们觉得，这次ZEC突破九年压制站稳500美元，是一场由屏蔽锁仓引起的短期资金费率逼空，还是隐私共识层真正的估值回归？欢迎在评论区聊聊你们的看法。 关键消息面
1. 美国加密监管法案推进
美国参议院多数党领袖推动《Clarity Act》加密监管法案，计划9月中旬进行关键程序性投票。该法案旨在为加密行业提供首个全面联邦监管框架，若通过将是重要利好。但法案推进不及预期，短期压制了市场上行空间。
2. ETF资金流入 vs 分叉担忧
比特币ETF上周资金流入强劲，但BIP-110分叉实际上已陷入停滞——约8小时内仅产出2个区块，而主链已推进48个区块，暴露了分叉网络算力严重不足的问题。目前仅2.53%的区块支持该提案，远低于55%的通过门槛。
3. 宏观环境
8月7日非农就业报告意外下降2.3万人（预期增加8万人），5月和6月数据合计下修10.3万人。市场对美联储9月加息的隐含概率从约57%降至约44%。后续关注：7月CPI数据、8月下旬杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会。
4. 山寨币异动
BSC生态代币TUT今日剧烈波动——24小时涨超200%后1小时内暴跌44%，1小时爆仓3,402万美元。此外，BICO涨超18%、VIC涨超9%、EPIC涨超11%。And again, this heartbreaking script.
With profits in hand, greed runs rampant, and I watch the floating gains evaporate until my principal is damaged. Last night, ETH hit 1950. At that moment, there was only one voice in my heart: "Wait a little longer, 2000 is just around the corner; this wave will never stop here." " But the market taught me the cruelest lesson—waking up, not only was profit zero, but the principal also started to show red lights.
Ether, oh ether, what are you hesitating about? $ETH Warm winds keep blowing in the news, rate cut expectations are repeatedly hyped, and there is no large-scale capital outflow. But every time the enemy is at the gates, invisible selling pressure always drives prices down. This feeling is not that there are no buyers, but that the selling orders above are like dark clouds pressing down, waiting quietly for every prey that surges.
The most challenging thing is its rhythm—if you say it's weak, there will always be support around 1900; If you say it's strong, 1950 has been repeatedly broken through. Consecutive attempts to break through resistance levels have failed, and the bulls' momentum is visibly fading. What it needs now is a shocking volume bullish candle, not this grueling rally and pullback.
On the market front, 1950 has quietly turned into short-term resistance. If it cannot be quickly recovered, the first step below is to look at the support strength at 1900; If it falls, panic may erupt, forcing a retreat to 1850—that is the true battlefield testing the bulls' determination.
Looking at BTC$BTC, the same goes for Bitcoin. The rally increasingly relies on catalysts; after rate cut expectations fully trade, the market urgently needs new stories to keep things alive; otherwise, good news will materialize, easily turning into negative ones.
Counterfeit tokens like $BEAT can enjoy elastic premiums when the market is strong, but once ETH leads the pullback, high volatility becomes a double-edged sword. $SNDK may have solid fundamentals and AI storage logic remains unbroken, but expectations are overhyped. The biggest fear is—excellent performance but not "impressive" enough, ultimately becoming a victim of "buying expectations and selling facts."
In the end, the root of the problem lies with yourself. Always wanting to get the last bite of fish tail, only to get stuck painfully by the thorns. The market never shows mercy just because you once made a profit; when it's time to cash out, you harbor illusions and ultimately face more passive choices.
Now, I've decided to change my approach. If ETH still can't break through the 2000 mark, I won't go along anymore. I'll first handle my current position, and even consider trying to short on a counter-move. This time, I won't fantasize about that empty 'last big bullish candlestick.'
Ethereum, when it's time to rise, please don't hesitate any longer.
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up 🔽Bitcoin lost -93.1% in 2011 bear market.
Drawdowns that followed hit -88%, -83.5% and -76.6%. In the current run, we reached -53.2% from the peak.
There is a pattern of decreasing drawdowns. It's normal volatility falls as the market matures.$ETH ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, setting the longest inflow record in 2026
How much is ETH worth now?
Just over $1900.
It is still down 61% from its all-time high of $4,957.
Five consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling $244 million, with prices remaining unchanged.
Do you think institutions are foolish, or is there something wrong with the market?
None of them.
Continuous inflows have not pushed prices higher; there is only one explanation: sellers are also strong.
Who is selling?
First, staking unlocking. Ethereum's staking rate has already surpassed 33%, with a large number of early-staked ETH being unlocked one after another.
Second, the whales of the ICO era. The group from 2015 to 2017 cost just a few dollars, now selling for 1900 is 300 times profit—if it were you, you'd sell too.
Third, cross-chain arbitrage. ETH has price differences across multiple global markets, and arbitrage funds are constantly being moved.
On one side, institutions are buying; on the other, old money is selling. The price is consolidating, indicating that the forces on both sides are temporarily balanced.
Five consecutive weeks of net inflows is a signal never seen since the ETF listed.
1900 ETH, given this context, the odds are becoming interesting.
Technically, ETH has strong support at $1837, with resistance above in the $1939-$1940 range. The MACD has not yet formed a clear golden cross, but the RSI is already in the bullish zone at 61.
Once the price breaks below the downtrend line at $1940, the next target is $2042.
If continuous inflows into ETH ETFs continue for another 2-3 weeks, the supply-demand balance may tip.
At that point, it won't be a matter of 1900. #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Can you get rich again by buying spot in crypto?
It's hard for me to pour cold water on you directly—it's basically a dream.
What was this place before? It was a big casino. Although it was chaotic, buying trash with your eyes closed could double the price, as long as you were bold and quick.
And now? The guys in suits at BlackRock blocked the door. They didn't come in to carry your sedan chair, they came to make some stable money. After buying$BTC they locked the custody vault and immediately went to issue US Treasuries. Who the hell came to take over those shabby knockoffs you had?
The result is: all the money is locked in $BTC C as ballast stones, and the knockoffs become orphanages with no one to manage, forced to kill their own people. In the past, it was like water flooding the Golden Mountain; now, water is as precious as oil. Want to get rich right under the watchful eyes of the regular army by relying on knockoffs? The odds are even lower than winning the lottery.
It used to be a rough underworld, full of gold and pits. Now it's a financial office building—the money is clean, but it's as thin as paper. The chance to get rich is cut down by the knife of compliance, leaving only leftover soup for institutions.
Old retail investors like us can't compete with algorithms or compete in compliance, just waiting for $BTC to crash and give it a comfortable position, pick up some spot and play dead. Only $OKB who do real work are left in the knockoffs; the rest? Do whatever they want, even if it hits zero, no one cries.
Finally, a heartbreaking question: Do you want to go back to the chaotic times of the past and get scammed, or stay in this office building starving now? $MUBARAK
MUBARAK是个模因币，名字跟巴勒斯坦某政治人物同名，带有强烈的巴以冲突叙事。成交额仅1429万USDT，涨幅却高达36.84%——这种流动性深度，狗庄花几十万美金就能拉出这么一根大阳线。7月9日币安上线MUBARAK永续合约，到今天正好一个月。新币上市初期，狗庄最喜欢利用散户FOMO反复收割。 The densely laid liquidity entry has yet to support buying confidence, and the three-tenths pullback over two weeks has pushed $GRVT toward the 0.287 level, exposing the fragility of the chip structure to the upcoming selling pressure window.
The price quickly moved from 0.42 to 0.287, with the trading range tightening to 0.26 to 0.31, and buying highs quickly exited amid consecutive bearish candles.
Currently, the circulating ratio is only 11.43%, and the upcoming 20% unlock on August 29 has sharply boosted inflation expectations and suppressed bullish growth.
The gap between low circulating market and high fully diluted valuations led to a defensive position pattern before the event, directly manifesting as repeated price pullbacks at key support zones.
If the price stabilizes within the 0.26 to 0.28 range around August 29 and sells out, the market will have the conditions to stabilize and form a medium-term bottom; if 0.26 breaks through, this rebound assumption will become invalid.
If the unlock window opens and selling pressure concentrates, the price may accelerate its sliding toward the bottom-seeking zone between 0.20 and 0.22; conversely, if there is a strong rally to break through 0.31, it indicates that short squeeze has prematurely ended downside risk.
If unlocked tokens are seamlessly absorbed by long-term funds off-market, or if selling pressure is quickly absorbed by buyers, the judgment that high inflation will break valuation support will be disproved by facts.
The most noteworthy variable to watch in the next 7 days is the chip turnover rate and support strength in the 0.26 to 0.28 support range as the unlock node approaches.
#霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down? #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has shifted backward$BTC $ETH $BICO Will non-farm payrolls no longer raise interest rates? What will the CPI be like next week? Has the market changed?
Think about it: at this critical time just before the midterm elections, the U.S. labor force data has seen such an unusual plunge and cooldown—what is hidden behind this? It conceals the highly coordinated behind-the-table moves of Washington's politicians. What does that mean? Simply put, the Federal Reserve and statistics departments are likely revising this set of data and then matching it with future political playbooks.
A deeper reason here is that Trump has always strongly advocated a weak dollar and low interest rates. If the nonfarm payroll data remains bright and the Fed is divided, calls for rate hikes will grow louder, undoubtedly going against Trump. So the Fed and statistics departments are clearly sending signals of economic weakness at this time, adapting to Trump's policy direction and offering him a token of loyalty. Don't you think this makes sense? Moreover, the room for artificial manipulation of U.S. nonfarm payroll data is now growing.
Why? Because now, the response rate for U.S. companies to the Bureau of Labor surveys has dropped from 70% in the past to 40%, and the remaining 60% of data comes entirely from statistical officials using mathematical models to guess, analyze, and deduce. How the parameters in the model are adjusted and weighted are all determined by the pen in their hands and their keyboard.
Since the first half of the nonfarm payroll data has already been played out according to the political script, we can boldly speculate on what the second half will be. The latest US inflation data to be released next week is very likely to follow this script with an unexpected decline. Because from a macro perspective, employment and inflation are the twin stars in the Fed's prescription and must be coordinated.
Since the tone is set for weak employment and falling wages, next week's CPI must be accompanied by a performance that serves as ironclad evidence that the wage inflation spiral has been cut off and disrupted. Only when inflation data also falls can the political script be perfectly closed and played well, with the Fed's two core trump cards in their hands.
The Fed can justifiably not raise rates before the end of this year, and even open a rate cut channel without hesitation. So that's the end of this numbers game—it will definitely bring about a new round of global asset value revaluation. Because once the market sees through the scenario of rate cuts restarting at the end of the year, the one-sided downward channel for the US dollar index can be said to have officially opened.
For the entire market, ordinary investors need to see this trend and follow it. With rising expectations for rate cuts and the likely continued weakness of the US dollar, global capital will enter a new round of positioning. Under this major trend, Bitcoin, A-shares, and US stocks are very likely to see a sustained rebound before the mid-term elections. At the same time, gold, as a hedge against inflation, depreciation, and hard currency, will also see a new round of reversal opportunities. So next week, when the CPI is released and two consecutive months of data bring positive results, I will adjust my market outlook on Bitcoin, gold, Nasdaq, and other commodities..... From short to bearish shifts to bullish #Spot ETF capital inflows—can BTC and ETH take over? If BTC falls below the daily MA20 before the US market opens, then tonight's direction is not just a technical issue, but a rehearsal of contraction in risk appetite. Have you ever wondered why, while global assets are falling, BTC is still holding firm and not collapsing? 🫧 I actually didn't have much desire to trade today; I was mostly watching the market and feeling the rhythm. US stocks are weak, Korean stocks are weak, platinum is falling, and crude oil is also falling. In this environment, BTC's relative strength is not an isolated signal. It indicates that the crypto market is not currently being sold off as risk assets, but at the same time, BTC has already fallen below the daily MA20, which makes me cautious about chasing long positions. My own approach is to wait for the US stock market to open and close the monthly moving average before deciding whether to increase my long-term position. It's not about guessing the direction, but about confirming. ETH is even more two-faced. ETF net inflows were interrupted for five consecutive days, but today they turned into outflows, with prices dropping 4%. However, the MA20 is still holding, indicating that selling pressure has not yet formed a trend breakdown. My current attitude toward ETH is: no preset direction, just to see if it can regain above the MA20. My current observation board roughly looks like this: - BNB, AAVE, LDO, UNI are in a strong consolidation with no obvious signs of selling - ZEC and HYPE have weakened momentum, rebound strength is weak - SNDK is weak, rebound remains a window to observe short positions - The weakening of Korean stock chains SK HYNIX, SK HYNIX, MU, SAMSUNG is starting to spread下周最重磅的数据无疑是7月CPI，市场普遍预期通胀将继续小幅回落，但核心服务业的反弹可能成为9月加息是否仍被“摆在桌面上”的关键变数。 核心预期：通胀延续温和下行 路透社调查的经济学家预计，美国7月整体CPI年率将从6月的3.5%降至3.4%；核心CPI年率将从2.6%降至2.5%。彭博经济团队甚至给出了更乐观的预测，认为核心CPI可能创下2021年3月以来最低同比涨幅。 分歧焦点：核心服务业通胀 通胀能否持续降温，服务业是关键变量。经济学家预计7月核心服务业通胀将环比上涨0.3%，而5月和6月均为持平。 花旗集团认为，连续两个月通胀走软基本意味着9月加息的可能性被排除。但美国银行分析师警告，核心服务业指标的回升可能让9月加息“依然摆在桌面上”。分析师Kate Duguid指出，如果后一种观点占上风，而通胀数据又低于预期，美联储加息可能被推迟到12月或更晚。 对加密市场的潜在影响 当前CME数据显示9月加息概率已从约55%降至44%。若7月CPI低于预期，可能推动该概率进一步下降，为风险资产提供短期支撑；若核心服务业通胀超预期回升，可能抑制市场对政策转向的预期。 $BTC $ETH $$BTC is trading sideways near $65,200, $ETH struggling at $1,925. Behind the market's apparent calmness, the real eye of the storm is Washington. The U.S. Senate has submitted a procedural motion, and in mid-September, the Clarity Act will enter a critical voting process. This bill addresses the industry's long-standing ultimate dilemma: whether tokens are securities or commodities, and where the boundaries of power between the SEC and CFTC are drawn. The current issue is that this bill requires a threshold of 60 votes, meaning it must win over at least seven Democratic lawmakers. The Democratic Party demands ethical restrictions on crypto assets for officials, the banking sector boycotts the clause for stablecoin deposit rewards, and the White House continues to negotiate and revise the details. Industry institutions warn bluntly: if no compromise can be reached before September 15, the bill will be delayed until the next congressional cycle, and the entire industry will continue to live under the shadow of SEC's enforcement-style regulation. Looking at this in terms of the market, it is a medium-term catalyst, not a short-term trigger. If approved, the entry channels for traditional large institutions will be opened, and compliant assets like $BTC and $ETH will see structural benefits. If it is shelved, market sentiment will be affected, but the overall trend will not reverse, and short-term market activity will still be dominated by the Fed's liquidity. Currently, the market is oscillating within a narrow range, and this uncertainty is suppressing risk appetite. Don't expect the bill to trigger a bull market as soon as it passes; even if it passes, institutional funds will enter in batches, so it's impossible to rush in overnight. The best strategy now is to keep a close eye on September 15 and increase the price when it passes**Arcium will get better, it just takes a little time. **
As a committed Arcium builder, I've been shaken lately. After TGE, news has decreased, and the community's enthusiasm seems to cool down. That worry of "Will it just fade away like other projects?" once made me hesitant to hold onto it firmly.
So I directly asked the community lead: Will Arcium be like other projects, with no follow-up after TGE?
The person in charge, Loosty, responded directly and pragmatically:
“It’s not. We have been working extremely hard to release Blackthorn as it’s a much more foundational product. It also doesn’t make us rely on ecosystem teams as heavily as it’s a product we’ve built.”
Translated: No. We've been working extremely hard to push the release of Blackthorn because it's a more fundamental, low-level product. And it doesn't need to rely heavily on ecosystem teams as before—this is a product we built ourselves.
This sentence helped me regain my composure.
Many projects remain "silent" after TGE because they still rely on external sources and wait for others to provide content and scenarios. But Arcium chose to first polish the most core, most fundamental aspects. Blackthorn is not just a simple feature update; it is a foundational product that truly reduces dependence on external ecosystems and allows projects to stand more securely. This kind of work is often quiet but determines how far it can go ahead.
As a builder, I understand the feeling of "anxiety without real-time news." I was also afraid to admit that "it might take a while longer." But the reply's response showed me: the team is not lying flat; they are burying their heads in harder, more important tasks.
So I want to say to all the builders who, like me, are still holding on:
Arcium will get better.
It just needs some time to build a more solid foundation.
The launch of Blackthorn will be an important signal. Before that, less panic about following the crowd, more patience for long-term value. Since we've chosen to build, let's give the team some time to produce something truly substantial.
I remain a steadfast builder of Arcium.
I'm waiting for the next big move.
$ARX
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? $GRVT What is the next step for the dog farm?
Short-term (before August 29): Most likely to fluctuate between 0.26 and 0.31. Before the unlock on August 29, Dog Farm may first rally to attract retail investors to chase long positions, then combine this with unlocking to sell off — a classic "good news turns negative" scenario.
Mid-term (after unlocking): GRVT's fundamentals are solid—TVL over 100 million, monthly trading volume 51.6 billion, former Goldman Sachs/Meta team, ZKsync architecture, Coinbase endorsement. But token economics are a major weakness. Two unlocks on August 29 and November 29, each increasing circulating supply by 20%. If these two unlocks can hold the 0.26-0.28 range, GRVT may form a mid-term bottom; If not, the lower limit is 0.20-0.22.
The final heartfelt words:
GRVT was 0.287 today, down 30% from 0.42 in less than two weeks. ZKsync architecture, former Goldman Sachs team, TVL over 100 million—the story is very exciting. But 11.43% circulating, 20% unlocked on August 29, and the community is already complaining—all three major landmines are right there. At 0.287, you might think you're bottom-fishing, but in reality, you're taking over the shares unlocked on August 29. Hold on, wait until all the negative news is cleared and the direction is clear before making your move! Remember, staying in the crypto world long is ten thousand times more important than making a lot! Meeting adjourned!Monday's US Stock Market Outlook: Has SNDK Reached a True Window for Sentiment Recovery?
SanDisk closed at $1,212 on Friday, with an intraday low of $1,184. What's more noteworthy is that on the day, QQQ rose 1.17%, SOXX rose 2.03%, while SNDK fell 3.64%, indicating that valuation digestion after the earnings report is not yet complete.
But the industry logic hasn't deteriorated in tandem. SNDK's latest quarterly data center revenue grew about 400% year-on-year, with next quarter revenue guidance of $10.3–$10.8 billion; The company has also locked in about $93.9 billion in long-term contracts, and demand for AI storage remains strong.
On Monday, I will focus on whether effective support forms between 1180 and 1210; The first rebound target is near 1310. Once it holds above 1360, the short-term structure will truly recover.
The real macro variable was the August 12 CPI.
Right now, it's not about judging the end of the AI storage bull market, but about how far the selling pressure has cleared after high expectations have driven down valuations. $SNDK #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? 🚨 WHY IS NOBODY SEEING THIS
2020 → bottom near 2,400
2022 → bottom near 3,500
2025 → bottom near 4,800
2026 → projected bottom near 6,400
Four cycles. One structure
Here's how the machine works
$SPX rips higher. Everyone calls it a new era
Then index doesn't crash into nothing - it rebalances back to last consolidation zone
The shelf where previous breakout was built
2020: COVID dragged it roughly 34% down - straight into 2019 base
2022: Fed's hiking cycle cut about 25% - straight into 2021 breakout zone
2025: tariff shock knifed it roughly 20% lower - straight into prior shelf
Every single time, price returned to the origin of the previous leg
Not random. Mechanical
So now connect the dots
$SPX just closed at a record near 7,800
The shelf this entire rally was built on sits near 6,400
That's a roughly 17% air gap between euphoria and structure
Here's what the market isn't pricing in
Each reset needed a trigger nobody saw coming. COVID. Inflation. Tariffs
The trigger is never the point. The structure is
And right now a handful of mega-caps are holding entire index together:
→ Apple
→ Nvidia
→ Microsoft
→ Amazon
→ Meta
When leaders break together, trip to shelf doesn't take months. It takes weeks
This isn't a crash call into the abyss
It's a rebalance. Same as 2020. Same as 2022. Same as 2025
The market always comes back for the zone it left behind
6,400 is that zone
Pin this post. Come back to it when we get there
Turn notifications on - I'll post warning BEFORE next leg down beginsBIP-110: From a "Groundbreaking Proposal" to "No One Cares": A Bitcoin Governance Experiment Doomed to Fail
Mining lambs
Attention
The content of the post is truthful and contains no factual bias
August 8th, early morning.
Bitcoin block height is 961,632.
A small number of nodes decide to leave the mainnet and implement BIP-110 rules.
The media started hyping up: "Bitcoin split in two!" ”
Are you panicking?
Don't panic. Let's see how this "forked chain" is doing now—
While the Bitcoin mainnet had advanced to block 961,651, the BIP-110 fork chain had only mined two blocks, remaining at 961,633.
It lags behind the main chain by 18 to 20 blocks.
Moreover, the gap continues to widen.
This fork farce, hailed as "the biggest governance crisis in Bitcoin history," took less than 48 hours from start to cooldown.
Let's start from the beginning.
In December 2025, a developer named Dathon Ohm proposed BIP-110. Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr provided manuscript suggestions.
Proposal content: Restrict non-financial data such as Ordinals inscriptions from being written to Bitcoin blocks within one year.
Supporters say: Inscriptions are "junk transactions," occupying block space and driving up fees. Bitcoin should focus on making money.
Sounds pretty reasonable, right?
But the problem is—no one agrees.
Let's see how this play turned into a "farce."
In July, Michael Saylor published a lengthy article listing 110 reasons for opposition. He said BIP-110 is a "Bitcoin medical-derived proposal"—a therapy that could bring new harm.
In the same month, Blockstream CEO Adam Back directly criticized it, calling it "idiocracy." He said the essence of BIP-110 is an attempt to use consensus layers to restrain others' behavior, which completely contradicts Bitcoin's core decentralization and permissionless nature.
On August 4, Saylor publicly refused to support it, citing that miners' support rate was only 2.7%, and the 55% threshold was "mathematically impossible."
On August 8, blocks 961 and 632 saw a fork.
And then?
And then there was nothing more.
Data shows that the BIP-110 miner signal support rate fluctuates between 0.3% and 2.6%.
No major mining pools have publicly supported it. Foundry, AntPool, F2Pool, ViaBTC—none have made any statements.
In the past two weeks, only 2.53% of blocks have shown support signals.
A 55% threshold? Not even a fraction.
Nodes supporting BIP-110 mainly come from users running the Bitcoin Knots software. The only mining pool publicly supporting BIP-110 is Luke Dashjr's own Ocean.
A single mining pool supports a chain.
What's even more outrageous is that this fork didn't even take basic safety precautions.
Ledger issues a warning: BIP-110 does not have built-in playback protection.
What does that mean?
If you rashly transfer or fork assets on the chain, it may also cause the real BTC on your main chain to be transferred.
Developer Kevin Loaec also warned that selling forked coins could lead to the theft of real BTC.
A forked chain that can't even guarantee security—tell me this is the "future of Bitcoin"?
To put it bluntly—
It took only eight months for BIP-110 to go from being a "groundbreaking proposal" to being "ignored."
At its peak, support was less than 3%.
A massive "Bitcoin fork crisis" ultimately ended with almost zero support.
Bitcoin has not been "split in two," which precisely proves its ability to "merge into one."
This story tells us that Bitcoin's governance mechanism is more robust than anyone imagines.
The dual threshold of miner signals + community consensus worked perfectly in this event.
What is the outcome of a proposal that lacks broad support and forks fork?
A lone chain with 20 blocks behind the main chain, only two blocks, and a chain that may stop producing blocks at any time.
Because Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism relies on stable computing power, when a few chains lose sufficient miner support, block generation times can extend from 10 minutes to hours or even days.
This is not a fork; it is a slow death.
Bitcoin has not been "split in two," which precisely proves its ability to "merge into one."ETF funds are flowing back again—has a new cycle for BTC and ETH begun?
After a long silence, institutional funds have once again turned their attention to crypto assets
From August 3 to August 7, the total net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $865 million, marking the highest level in nearly 15 weeks. Of this, BlackRock IBIT contributed about $694 million.
Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs continued to see inflows, with a net inflow of about $244 million over the same period, marking five consecutive weeks of net inflows.
This change in funds means more than just short-term buying.
In recent years, the biggest change in crypto assets has been the faster entry into the traditional financial system. ETFs have made it easier for institutions to allocate BTC and ETH, and have also enabled more long-term capital to participate.
Bitcoin remains the crypto asset most easily accepted by institutional capital.
It has a clearer value logic: limited supply, global circulation, and an increasingly mature financial product system.
Meanwhile, Ethereum is searching for new directions for growth.
With the expansion of stablecoin scale, advancement of RWA (tokenization of real-world assets), and the increase in on-chain financial applications, the functions Ethereum supports are gradually shifting from a simple blockchain network to digital financial infrastructure.
However, the return of funds is just the beginning.
What determines the next stage of market trends is not only the scale of ETF inflows, but also the global liquidity environment and the development speed of the crypto ecosystem itself.
If a future rate-cut cycle begins and funding costs decrease, while institutions continue to increase allocations, crypto assets may usher in a new capital cycle.
My view is that the biggest change this time is that the crypto industry is moving away from its previous model of relying solely on sentiment.
BTC is becoming part of institutional asset allocation, while ETH is competing for its place in future financial infrastructure.
In the coming years, truly valuable opportunities may not exist only in token price increases, but rather in a new round of infrastructure construction generated by the connection between traditional finance and blockchain.
ETF funds flowing back is a signal.
More importantly, whether these funds will shift from short-term allocation to long-term allocation.
$SPCX $SNDK $GRVT
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? In this faith marathon called "Never Sell Coins," the man who once shouted "Sell your kidneys to buy Bitcoin"—Michael Saylor—is here
On August 9, disclosed sales of 1,637 BTC (about $105 million), reducing the position to 842,138.
* First: Don't be scared by "selling coins." For a monster-level holding holding of 842,138 BTC (about 4.01% of the global supply), these 1,637 BTC account for only 0.19% of its total position. How is this a share reduction? At most, this was like Saylor trimming a nail for his own "diamond hand."
* Faith shattered: Once said "I wouldn't sell even if I died," now I say "to manage capital." This shift of face has made believers who treated MSTR as a Bitcoin "perpetual call option" feel a bit of "cyber betrayal."
* This selling was not due to bearishness, but because the price of STRC (its preferred share) fell below issue price. Both Morgan Stanley and quantitative institutions saw clearly: Saylor was cutting losses at $63,957 (his average cost was $75,419) to buy back preferred shares that had fallen below $100 in face value.
* Logic: This operation essentially means "selling discounted coins and buying back even more heavily discounted bonds." On the financial statements, this effectively narrows the capital structure and locks in future dividend costs.
*Since Strategy has started frequently using "BTC currency."49577, this is $BTC's last line of defense
As long as it doesn't break below this level, the long-term bull market hasn't been broken. In the two bear markets of 2018 and 2022, BTC only truly bottomed out after breaking below previous lows on the monthly chart. 49577 was the low point of the previous cycle, and above that, it was a normal pullback
There's another signal on the monthly chart—BTC is currently just above the 20-period moving average. Historically, every time this line is broken, it has entered a deep bear market, but it hasn't been broken yet
But on a macro level, things are a bit dilemma
The S&P 500 hit a record high, gold rose 60%, BTC was still hovering around 64,600, down 49% from its all-time high. Neither in the AI narrative nor in the risk-averse narrative, stuck in the middle like a sandwich
The monthly closing over the next two months will be crucial. If 49,577 is not broken, the trend is there. Only when it breaks is the real time to panic.
It's still far from there, so there's no need to scare yourself🔥 NFP Tonight: What Are You Watching? $BTC $ETH
One economic report could create a major volatility spike tonight.
🇺🇸 NFP Forecast: 83K
Previous: 57K
Unemployment: 4.2%
Here's my map:
🟢 60K–100K
Near expectations.
Probably less dramatic after the initial volatility, assuming unemployment and wages remain stable.
🔴 >130K
Strong labor market.
Potentially:
BTC 📉
ETH 📉
USD 📈
Yields 📈
🟢 <40K
Weak labor market.
Potentially:
BTC 📈
ETH 📈
Gold 📈
But watch unemployment.
If unemployment jumps sharply, the market may stop thinking:
“Rate cuts = bullish.”
And start thinking:
“Recession = risk-off.”
🎯 What I'm watching after the release:
DXY
Treasury yields
BTC reaction
ETH reaction
Volume
Breakout or rejection
Don't predict.
Observe. Confirm. Execute.
And most importantly:
Don't let one NFP candle decide your entire trading account.
$BTC $ETH #NFP #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoTrading #MacroTrading #TradingStrategy
$ETH $BTC #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering 🚨 NFP Shock: What It Really Means for $BTC & $ETH
The July US jobs report came in dramatically weaker than expected.
🇺🇸 NFP: -23K
📊 Expected: ~83K
📉 Unemployment: 4.1%
💵 Wage growth: 3.2% YoY
And there's more:
Previous payrolls were revised down by 103K.
So this wasn't simply one weak month. The recent labor-market picture was weaker than previously reported.
🧠 Why Does This Matter for Crypto?
A weaker labor market can increase expectations for monetary easing.
That can potentially mean:
📉 Treasury yields
📉 USD
📈 Risk appetite
📈 BTC
📈 ETH
But there's a second side to the trade.
If investors interpret the data as evidence of a deeper economic slowdown, recession fears can overwhelm the rate-cut narrative.
That's why I'm watching the reaction rather than making a simplistic call.
🎯 What Matters Now
BTC: around $65K
ETH: around $1,915, with ETH showing stronger recent momentum.
I'm watching:
• Treasury yields
• DXY
• BTC/ETH volume
• ETH/BTC relative strength
• Equity-market reaction
• Follow-through after the initial NFP volatility
The NFP number has already been released.
Now the real trade begins:
How does the market interpret it?
A weak labor market can mean easier policy.
It can also mean weaker growth.
The difference will be decided by price action.
No fake trades.
No guaranteed predictions.
No chasing candles.
Just real data, real market reaction, and disciplined risk management.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #NFP #CryptoTrading #Macro #Fed #TradingStrategy $BTC $ETH #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering 💧 Weak Jobs Data Could Change the Liquidity Narrative
The July NFP report surprised almost everyone:
-23K jobs vs. roughly 83K expected.
Wage growth also cooled, while earlier payrolls were revised down.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Because labor-market weakness can influence expectations for monetary policy.
If markets begin pricing a greater probability of easier policy, yields can come under pressure and financial conditions can become more supportive for risk assets.
That's the bullish case for $BTC and $ETH.
But liquidity isn't enough by itself.
We still need demand.
That's why I'm watching:
Macro data → yields → risk appetite → crypto flows → price action.
The data creates the opportunity.
Capital flows decide whether the move lasts.
$BTC $ETH #Liquidity #NFP #Macro #CryptoTrading $ETH $BTC #AIMemorySelloffEases #SP500Eyes8000 #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Previously, the entire storage sector went through a complete bear cycle: South Korea introduced new regulations on high thresholds for margin subsidies for SK Hynix, leading to mass retail investors selling losses and triggering sector leverage. Coupled with SK Hynix's subsequent Q2 earnings falling short of market expectations, the resonance of these two negative factors drove the entire storage industry chain weaker. SanDisk, as one of the four major storage giants, plunged deeply in line with sentiment.
With the negative news fully realized, the market has fully digested negative expectations of SK Hynix's leverage reduction and financial report failures. Funds have begun competing for the storage industry cycle to recover from the bottom. SNDK has taken advantage of the momentum to recover valuations and catch up, quickly becoming the leading rally in this round of the storage sector rebound, officially establishing the bullish logic in the sector.
Judging from the fundamental and broader environment, there is still momentum for an upward trend going forward.This is my first time trading a hedge trade, so I remember all the pitfalls I stumbled on ⚠️🤯
$BICO This market is my first time trying hedging—going short on one side, going long on the other side, the experience is maximized.
After a violent spike at 0.08998 at the front, the market 📉 fell sharply, and short positions gained 204% from the big gain.
Afraid of closing out a position and missing out on a rebound, I opened a long position to hedge and lock in risk.
✅ Benefits of hedging surfaces:
The market fluctuates back and forth, and the positions on both sides can offset some of the volatility, so you don't have to worry about sharp ups and downs going back and forth.
❗ Beginners must pay attention to these pitfalls when hedging; many people lose more and more the more they lock in:
1. Dual consumption 📊 of fees + funding fees
Both long and short positions exist simultaneously, and both sides charge fees. After settlement, you have to pay funding fees. If you drag on too long, profits will gradually be eatped away. You shouldn't hold on for a long time for hedging; it's suitable for short-term transitions. Don't lock your hands tightly.
2. Distinguish the Models! Here, I have one cross-margin and one isolated margin, with margin not interconnected
Short is cross-margin, mostly isolated margin.
If the price surges violently, cross-margin shorting still carries a risk of liquidation. Profits from isolated positions cannot save cross-margin shorts, which is crucial and often leads to confusion.
3. The unlocking order is very important 💡
Don't close recklessly! If the market rebounds strong, prioritize closing short positions; If it keeps dropping, prioritize closing long positions.
The biggest fear is chaotic liquidations on both sides, turning hedging into mutual attacks.
4. Hedging does not mean guaranteed profit; it only locks in unrealized gains on paper
Floating profit is just a number; if you haven't closed all your positions, it won't count until you realize your profits.
Don't think that opening hedges means you can rest easy; altcoins can still cause surprises.
Currently, $BICO is oscillating at a low level after a decline, with a low RSI and a potential rebound and recovery at any time.
Hedging is just a transitional measure. Once you know your direction, you should choose the right moment to open your position, rather than just keep holding up and wasting your position.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard The daily transaction count has surpassed 2.6 million, while the median on-chain gas fee is firmly held at a very low level of $0.01 to $0.15. This is the real operational picture Ethereum will deliver in 2026. For any DApp user who frequently operates on-chain, this is an unbelievable paradise. But in stark contrast, Ethereum's deflationary engine has pressed the pause button amid the joyous expansion of the entire network. Ethereum's ultrasonic token deflation story has become a thing of the past after the Fusaka upgrade and PeerDAS's comprehensive victory.
Is this a technological leap, or a setback in tokenomics? In my trader group, a recent debate between two veteran players perfectly exposed Ethereum's current awkward predicament.
Deflationary believers say, 'Look, we've finally achieved internet-level scalability, processing 2.6 million transactions in a single day without any network congestion. This shows that Fusaka raised the block gas cap to 60 million last December, and with PeerDAS data availability sampling technology, they successfully maxed out the efficiency of mainnet and L2s.' Ethereum is no longer a playground for the wealthy—everyone can afford it.
But another rationalist specializing in long-term spot allocation directly retorted, "You only count the trading experience, not the token value capture." Do you remember in 2021 when we did a simple exchange on the mainnet and had to pay a $50 gas fee? Back then, we felt sorry for the fees while watching the EIP-1559 burn mechanism burn ETH in large amounts, singing the story of ultrasonic token deflation. But now? Although transaction volumes keep hitting new highs, the capacity has been expanded several times over, diluting the gas fee base and burning volume to negligible levels.
This has led Ethereum to slide into a persistent inflation abyss.
According to calculations, as newly issued validator rewards continue to be generated and on-chain base fee burns nearly stall due to ultra-low gas fees, Ethereum's annual supply is slowly growing at a rate of 0.2% to 0.8%. Its once proud deflationary self-purification capability has been diluted by technological upgrades.
This is indeed Ethereum's most tangled paradox right now.
On one hand, if Fusaka and PeerDAS upgrades are not made, Ethereum will hand over the entire market to high-performance monochains like Solana due to congestion and sky-high fees; But on the other hand, once scaling is complete, the token burn mechanism that relied on congestion will be declared bankrupt. The better Ethereum is to use, the cheaper its gas fees become, the more inflation it becomes, and the secondary valuation center loses the momentum to push the market up.
Looking at the ETH spot I had accumulated in my wallet, my feelings were quite complicated. Ultra-low gas did make on-chain interactions less painful, but it also completely drained my confidence in holding coins long-term. Under the combined pressure of multi-chain split-off and Ethereum's inflation, native tokens have shifted from hard assets to universal currencies that are continuously diluted during issuances.
This forces us to take a step back and look at the bigger picture: in this industry, are high performance and strong value capture truly destined to be irreconcilable contradictions?
In the coming period, I will focus on tracking changes in two micro-level indicators: one is whether the burn value of the mainnet's daily average Gas base fee can return to the daily bonus issuance of validators; the other is whether the sustained surge in L2 transactions can introduce secondary value accumulation in non-Gas forms to L1 through indirect channels in the future.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? NVDA今年YTD才涨了7%，费城半导体指数同期涨了近30%。AI算力之王，跑输了自己所在的板块。
NVDA基本面没出问题。Q1财报营收同比+85%创新高，数据中心业务一条腿就能碾压整个芯片行业。问题出在市场叙事在变，SK海力士7月底业绩miss之后，整个AI trade出现了明显的获利了结。NVDA、MU、AMD当天一起被砸，AI概念不再是买了就涨的确定性。
市场在给AI估值挤水分。去年底到今年初那波暴涨，透支了太多预期。现在NVDA earnings还是beat，但股价反应越来越钝——业绩够好，但优秀已经被市场当成基准线了。
这轮AI估值回归还没走完。9月Broadcom财报是个关键节点——如果AVGO的AI芯片指引继续超预期，整个板块会重新获得叙事支撑。在此之前，NVDA和存储链MU、海力士会继续在区间震荡。
HBM库存去化进度、超大规模云厂商Q3 capex指引、AVGO9月财报的AI revenue guidance。三个如果都正面，下半年AI半导体还有一波。
以上不构成投资建议，预测市场有风险，判断请基于自己的研究The S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs, and the 8,000-point target is being put on the table by more and more institutions.
But there is one detail that may be even more noteworthy than "US stocks rising to 8000 points":
While US stocks are surging, Bitcoin is clearly lagging behind.
What does this really mean?
To start with the conclusion: a bull market in US stocks ≠ a bull market in Bitcoin is inevitable.
The core driving forces behind this round of US stock market rallies have actually shifted.
In the past, the market relied more on liquidity easing and valuation expansion, but now it is more about real earnings growth driven by the AI industry. Tech giants like Microsoft and Palantir have consistently exceeded expectations, with corporate profits continuously rising, ultimately passing on to the index.
Therefore, the current rise in US stocks is not simply a "liquidation rally."
But the problem is also obvious:
The index is increasingly reliant on a handful of AI heavyweight stocks.
The market appears strong, but the actual rally is not as broad as it seems. If AI leaders perform below expectations, or inflation resurfaces and the Federal Reserve continues to maintain high interest rates, market valuations may also be rapidly squeezed.
So, 8000 points can be watched, but don't think of it as a straight line.
So, if the S&P really surges to 8000 points, can Bitcoin reap the dividends?
I think there are two scenarios.
First: US stocks rising + inflation falling + easing interest rate expectations.
This is the most Bitcoin-friendly combination.
If AI profits continue to materialize, CPI moderately declines, the market resumes trading rate cut expectations, and overall risk appetite continues to rise, some funds may indeed spread from traditional risk assets to the crypto market.
In this environment, Bitcoin is very likely to benefit.
But don't overestimate this transmission speed.
Currently, much of the funds used to rise in U.S. stocks are still in the stock market, without a large-scale spillover of crypto funds.
So it is entirely possible that the following occurs:
While US stocks keep hitting new highs, BTC is hovering sideways.
This is not contradictory.
Second: U.S. stocks rise, but high interest rates persist.
This situation is not so favorable to Bitcoin.
If inflation rebounds and wage data remains strong, and the Fed is reluctant to signal easing, then even if U.S. stocks can continue to rise thanks to corporate earnings, the actual liquidity dividends Bitcoin can provide remain very limited.
Even more dangerous, if AI performance falls short of expectations and leads to valuations of heavyweight US stocks, risk appetite can quickly retreat:
Bitcoin, a high-beta asset, usually falls faster than the S&P.
So don't form a simple trading formula:
US stocks rose → BTC rose
US stock market high→ BTC surges
Reality is far from that simple.
Now, the driving logic of the two has clearly diverged.
US stocks focus more on corporate earnings and AI industry trends;
BTC is more sensitive to US Treasury yields, dollar liquidity, ETF funds, and the crypto market's own funding environment.
Now let's look at BTC's own market
Currently, Bitcoin is still stuck within the large range of $63,200–$65,200.
US stocks hit new highs every day, but BTC incremental funds have not clearly kept up, and ETF funds are showing phased inflows and outflows.
So currently, it looks more like:
US stocks are trending, BTC is fluctuating.
Key positions remain relatively clear:
$64,800–$65,200: Short-term core resistance zone. Only a breakout with increased volume and a stable position will have a chance to open new upside opportunities.
$63,200–$63,500: Near the lower edge of the range, this is also a key defensive area for bulls right now.
$62,000–$62,400: Stronger support. Once it is effectively broken, it means risk assets may begin to weaken overall.
Finally, a few reminders for fellow circle members
First, don't use the S&P 8000 as a reason to go long on BTC.
Whether the S&P can reach 8,000 points is a medium- to long-term macro narrative; The true major BTC market ultimately depends on inflation, U.S. Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and the liquidity of the crypto market itself.
Second, the truly BTC-friendly combination is:
US stocks rise + interest rates fall + liquidity improvement.
If the US stock market rally is only supported by AI leaders in a high interest rate environment, the actual boost to BTC may be very limited.
Third, BTC is still operating in box mode.
Before a breakthrough, there's no need to fantasize about a one-sided bull market.
Near the upper edge of the box, control the position; Near the lower edge of the box, consider light position gambling; there's no need to gamble on direction with high leverage.
Fourth, be sure to guard against US stocks surging and pulling back.
If the S&P shows a significant correction from its highs later, BTC, as a high-volatility risk asset, is likely to experience greater downward resilience.
So the most important thing now is not to guess:
"Can the S&P really reach 8,000 points?"
Instead, focus on a more critical issue:
While US stocks are rising, has liquidity truly started to flow into BTC?
If not, then the stronger the US market, the more sideways BTC tends to be, which is actually more worth being cautious about. $BTC #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #美股全线走高, crypto stocks lead the gains OKB and BTC: Medium- to Long-Term Bottom Explanation
August 9, 2026.
I always selectively ignore small fluctuations in the crypto world.
The two core indicators I focus on are: first, a reference for long-term historical declines, and second, a link to the mid-term crash low.
First (Long-term Indicator):
OKB has dropped 77% from its peak, close to historical decline data, which is one of the factors I judged OKB hit bottom early.
BTC has fallen 54% from its peak, not yet close to the decline data. The bear market decline is insufficient and it will continue to fall in the future.
Second (Mid-term Indicator):
OKB hit a February low of $60 and a June low of $65.
BTC hit a February low of $60,000 and a June low of $57,000.
BTC's major cycle hasn't adjusted properly—$60,000 → $57,000→? Every sharp drop at a low point is lower.
OKB's major cycle has already adjusted into place. → $60 → $65? Each drop has seen its low gradually rise.
In the next crash, BTC will easily take down even lower lows.
When the market crashes again, at best it drags OKB into a weekly double bottom, and the average rebounds faster after the decline.
BTC will plummet in the future, but there are still opportunities to buy OKB at lower prices.
But we must also accept the reality that OKB's major cycle lows are gradually rising.
That is, $60→ $65→ and the next sharp drop lows will rise.
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(08/08,26) Reading notes and reflections:
Don't watch short-term fluctuations, because watching them is pointless.
The bottom of the large cycle is the most critical indicator; mid-term correction is the entry point; short-term fluctuations are almost all noise.
Abandoning tried-and-true principles is the beginning of disaster.
Risk is asymmetrical; sometimes the returns accumulated over half a year or a year can be destroyed by a sudden black swan.
Keep mean reversion in mind, and your investments won't stray from the right path.
Investors lacking patience and judgment often cut losses and wait by when asset prices crash.
The lower your purchase price, the higher your investment return.Macro Economics Completely Torn Apart! Extreme Polarization Between Long and Bearish Data, Global Assets Enter a Chaotic Market Window 🔥
The biggest core contradiction in the recent global financial markets is not the rise and fall of the market, but the extreme fragmentation of U.S. macroeconomic data.
Employment, policy expectations, and asset pricing are all misaligned, with bullish and bearish logic pulling in both directions, and all assets are experiencing independent divergence. Without a unified trend or clear direction, the market has fully entered a "chaotic game cycle," which is the fundamental reason why the recent stock market, crypto world, and gold have been completely out of sync.
1. Employment data is severely conflicted: recruitment collapses, but layoffs are never made
This round of the U.S. labor market has undergone the most bizarre structural divergence in recent years, with two sets of core data showing completely opposite economic signals.
First, ADP small nonfarm payroll data was a major surprise, adding only 44,000 people, the lowest increase of the year.
The reality behind the data is very clear: SMEs' willingness to hire has cooled across the board, the momentum for new market positions has almost plummeted, and the strength of economic expansion is visibly weakening.
According to conventional macro logic: weakening employment = economic cooling = easing interest rate hike expectations = marginal liquidity easing, so growth and risk assets should strengthen accordingly.
But another set of authoritative data directly overturns weak economic expectations:
Initial jobless claims reached 199,000, holding below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, marking the best level since September 2022.
This means that U.S. companies are not experiencing large-scale layoffs, the employment market is highly resilient, and companies are simply stopping to expand staff, not reducing capacity.
Summarizing the current real economic situation:
A cold balance pattern of low hiring and low layoffs.
The economy is neither hot, strong, nor in recession, stuck in an awkward range that neither rises nor falls, directly locking the Fed's monetary policy space.
Wall Street institutions consensus: ADP's sample is biased toward small and micro enterprises, causing significant disruption and high distortion; Initial jobless claims better reflect the true employment baseline of the market, indicating the current economy is "slowing but not weakening."
2. Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, market expectations stuck at half
Even more fatal than the data divergence is the extreme polarization within the Federal Reserve.
Currently, several Federal Reserve officials have expressed a fully hedging stance, with both bulls and bears sticking to their views: some continue to warn about sticky inflation risks, some believe current interest rate suppression is insufficient, and some officials have clearly stated that further rate hikes are unnecessary.
Internal views cannot be unified, directly leading to complete confusion in market interest rate expectations.
CME rate pricing shows the probability of a rate hike in September is stuck at 55%, with evenly split between bulls and bears, with no consensus on the situation.
The biggest fear in macroeconomics is not bad news or positive news, but uncertainty.
With unclear policy expectations, major funds dare not make one-sided long bets or extreme short selling, so all assets can only fluctuate within a narrow range and rotate differentially.
3. Extreme differentiation among asset types, with pricing logic completely misaligned
Macro tearing has directly caused different asset categories to emerge from completely isolated markets, with each asset category pricing logic completely different.
1. US storage stock $SNDK: explosive performance but plunges 7%
This round of storage sector has seen a typical bullish turnaround in a bearish rally.
$SNDK delivered an outstanding financial report: revenue surged 372% year-on-year, gross margin surpassed 84.6%, and a buyback plan worth tens of billions was implemented, with impeccable fundamental data.
But in the end, the price soared and then retreated, with a deep decline.
Many people don't understand the core logic: the capital market trades future expectations, not past performance.
With rate hike expectations hanging high, growth stock valuations continue to be suppressed. No matter how strong the fundamentals, short-term benefits are completely ineffective in the face of expectations of tightening macro liquidity, and valuation contraction crushes all earnings dividends.
2. Gold $XAU: The only asset with logical logic
At this stage, gold is the only product with the most standard and macro trend across the market.
The weakening ADP employment data directly weighed on the US dollar and cooled expectations for rate hikes, prompting funds to bet on marginal liquidity easing, driving gold to continue strengthening and breaking new highs.
Currently, gold is priced entirely in line with interest rate expectations, with clear logic and a definite trend, making it the most stable macro hedge right now.
3. Bitcoin $BTC: The most awkward sandwich market
Currently, Bing is in the most passive position on the market, completely pulled by macro expectations, breaking out of an independent weak volatility.
Gold continues to surge on weak employment expectations, while $BTC holds firm at the 64,000 mark, showing weak momentum.
Extremely fractured capital structure:
Institutional ETFs continued to see long-term net inflows, with single-day net inflows reaching $243 million;
However, the secondary market Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days.
The real truth of the market: US institutions distribute on high prices, while Asian spot funds take in at low levels.
Hedging by bullish and short funds completely offsets the upward momentum. Coupled with the unclear direction of the Federal Reserve's policy direction, BTC lacks a one-sided trend catalyst and can only continue to bottom and fluctuate, waiting for macro intervention to break through.
4. The ultimate core conclusion of the current market
1. The macro market has entered an extreme window of chaos, with data opposition between bulls and bears, policy views split, and no clear unilateral trend;
2. Assets no longer rise and fall together, entering a complete structural differentiation: gold trading interest rate expectations, U.S. stock trading valuation suppression, and capital competition in the crypto world;
3. The essence of all these fluctuations is that funds are waiting for certainty: waiting for nonfarm payrolls to be implemented, waiting for the Fed's stance to unify, waiting for interest rate expectations to be set;
4. The main trading principle at this stage: no one-sided guessing, no heavy positions, only range arbitrage, patiently waiting for macro direction to set the direction.
The market is never absent; it's just that before macro measures are implemented, the market will absorb uncertainty through volatility.
(This is for macro market review teaching only and does not constitute any investment advice. Trading must be conducted with independent risk control (DYOR)#比特币BIP-110 proposal cools off, forked chains lag behind mainnet
Damn! This was not a forked feast at all, but a farce doomed to fail from the start.
Recently, a group of people created something called BIP-110 on the Bitcoin network. To put it bluntly, some people can't stand the chain stuffed with inscriptions, images, and all sorts of junk data, and want to forcibly block these non-payment spaces to force everyone to honestly treat Bitcoin like money.
Supporters think node burdens are too heavy and fees are ruined; opponents directly criticize this as censorship and bias into protocols, saying that if one transaction can be blocked today, anything you want can be blocked tomorrow.
But miners simply didn't buy it. The big pools collectively played dead, with signal support rates pitifully low, barely holding onto the fragmented hash rate. At critical moments, supporters created a small chain themselves, but the mainnet kept racing. That forked chain was as slow as constipation, only popping up one or two blocks every few hours, stretching further and further from the main chain. Small pools like Roughnecks were mining there but couldn't keep up at all, and difficulty adjustments would probably take forever.
A KOL on X also joked: "I originally wanted to save Bitcoin, but it turned into a stress test. Only two blocks in 8 hours, and the next difficulty adjustment will take 350 days 😂." ”
Some people even think that past forks could at least distribute some dividends, but this time there probably won't be any nonsense, with the only benefit being that a few troublemakers have disappeared.
To put it bluntly, miners only care about fees and profits, and whoever pays more gets the chance. Such proposals that block the flow of money are bound to fail.
Veterans like Adam Back and Saylor have long warned: pushing hard will only cause useless forks like BSV. History has repeatedly proven that rule changes without hash rate, capital, or real consensus are just self-indulgence.
The mainnet will run however it should—safety first, and extensions will be left to the second layer to play. Low-value data will naturally be squeezed out by fees, and the market will clean up the junk itself—there's no need for a group of people to use rules as moral judges.
This has basically no impact on the market. Bitcoin is still the original Bitcoin, operating normally according to established rules. Don't expect airdrops or new coins anymore; just honestly hold mainnet BTC and don't get hyped up by these unpopular proposals.
Miners care about profits; what really matters is consensus; everything else has little substantive meaning. Today's tape: capital rotating out of majors into leftover names from past hype cycles. $BOME , $PUMP , and $JOE posting double-digit gains — meme infrastructure and old DEX tokens waking up simultaneously. $ME and $DOOD reflect the same pattern in NFT-adjacent plays, while $CVX rides the broader small-cap bid despite being pure DeFi plumbing.
None of this is majors moving. It's a classic low-liquidity rotation — traders chasing beta when BTC and ETH sit flat. Worth watching volume closely here: several of these names are trading on thin turnover, meaning the moves can reverse just as fast as they appeared.
Rotation days like this are a mood read, not a trend call.
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering MARA mortgaged Bitcoin to raise $600 million, mining while also laying out AI computing power
US mining companies pledged massive amounts of BTC for financing, and crypto and AI computing power began to be deeply intertwined
📰 Key News Highlights:
US-listed Bitcoin mining company $MARA recently completed a $600 million credit financing round, pledging 18,750 bitcoins (valued at about $1.2 billion). The funds will be used to acquire power generation assets, build a total computing power base of 2GW, and undertake Bitcoin mining and AI high-performance computing businesses.
This company directly connects two main lines: on one hand, it holds large amounts of BTC to use as crypto assets; on the other, it enters AI computing power, targeting the US US AI server supply chain.
A new trend has emerged in the market: many North American crypto mining companies are no longer just mining, but are using cheap electricity resources to transform into AI computing outsourcing, directly intersecting with US clients like NVDA and AVGO.
Interpretation of the market linkage
From the US stock perspective: If future AI computing power outsourcing orders continue to materialize, MARA will benefit from both crypto cycle dividends and AI computing boom, with stock price fluctuations affected by both coin prices and AI capital expenditures.
From the crypto perspective: A large amount of BTC is used as collateral to lock positions, reducing market circulation chips, which is an indirect positive for the medium to long term; However, caution is also needed if the price experiences a deep correction, it could trigger collateral risk and bring passive selling pressure.
Risk Points: This debt is collateralized by BTC. If BTC drops sharply, margin calls will be triggered, and in extreme cases, large amounts of BTC may be dumped onto exchanges.The true strength of capital inflows into BTC ETFs: From Monday to Friday, all were positive, with a single-day peak of about $244 million on Wednesday. IBIT alone contributed nearly $700 million. ETH ETF: weekly inflow of about $245 million, also the best since April, and has been positive for several consecutive weeks. BlackRock ETHA is also a major player. On Friday (August 7), BTC still recorded net inflows of about $98.85 million and ETH about $49.6 million, indicating that this was not the pre-weekend wave of impulse buying. It should be noted that trading volume is not high, and overall ETF trading volume remains relatively low. Since 2026, BTC ETFs have still accumulated net outflows of about $4.4 billion, while ETH has also seen a net outflow of about $870 million. This round of returning flows only makes up for part of the large previous outflows and is far from reversing the annual trend. Some analyses link the inflow to the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability incident—after rising self-custody risks, some funds shifted to regulated ETF products, which may explain the sluggish price response. Why didn't prices immediately take over? Capital inflows ≠ immediately rose, especially in the current macro environment: Macro remains tight: Fed maintains interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%, and the market remains highly sensitive to the future trajectory. The CPI around August 12–13 and the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of the month remain the core pricing factors. Technical pressure: BTC repeatedly tested the 65,000–65,500 area, but resistance is reached, E