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On September 16th, Circle's ARC mainnet will go live. For an event-driven trader, I have already added Circle to the Select list. I think this upgrade follows the logic and makes it worth trading: 1. The ARC mainnet launch is undoubtedly positive for CRCL, but you should also beware of the narrative that good news comes with negative news. But whether you can determine this "good news comes with negative news" logic depends on CRCL's actual stock price reaction in the three days before mainnet launch. If CRCL has risen continuously independently of BTC or rises significantly, then you can basically short when ARC mainnet launches. Otherwise, you can decisively go long. 2. Another positive factor for CRCL when ARC mainnet launch is that more and more MEME tokens will pair with CRCL. If one MEME surges, demand for CRCL may skyrocket, passively pushing CRCL's stock price higher. Currently, Long.supply has seen many MEME pairs with CRCL, which is a mainstream trend in the crypto world recently. 3. Other key coins to watch in the secondary market include EDGE, LONG, AAVE, MORPHO, and UNI, but the ones who will truly make money this round are probably the first batch of MEME coins to launch on the ARC mainnet. As a secondary trader, I guess I'll just be watching the show. Or rather, I can only watch the secondary market and see if it happens#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
Institutions are withdrawing this week, and it's not a small matter
From September 8 to 10, during three U.S. stock trading days
BTC spot ETF saw a continuous net outflow of about $450 million
On the 10th alone, about $283 million outflow, with BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and ARK all selling
Looking further back, from September 2 to 4, there was a continuous inflow of about $1.01 billion
The direction of funds flipped quickly within a week
Price is hovering around 77,000, not crashing but buying pressure is weakening
Focus on ETF outflows, 9/16 FOMC, and 9/25 quarterly options over the next two weeks
BTC options nominal value is about $14.39 billion
So my judgment is: the funding side is weakening, but the trend is not dead
Before outflows slow down, treat rebounds as opportunities to reduce positions, not as a new trend
$BTC $ETH #ETF #资金面Single Coin Contract Fluctuation
$UB buyers dominate active transactions, price recorded an increase: In 3 sets of 5-minute statistics, active buying accounts for 58.8%, active selling accounts for 41.2%, the amount of active buying is about 1.43 times that of active selling; the 15-minute K-line of this root rose by 0.91%; open interest increased by 1.14%, open interest amount changed by +2.39%, open interest has indeed expanded, quantity change and amount change are in the same direction. The price increase and buying dominance mutually confirm each other, current performance is relatively strong. #霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟
On September 13, an Iranian commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz was attacked, causing casualties, and another transit ship was hit by a projectile. The regional meeting originally scheduled for September 14 to discuss shipping arrangements in the strait was also postponed. Just a few days ago, the market was speculating on easing expectations, but this incident directly contradicts that; this situation is far from being resolved in the short term.
This matter has a very direct impact on the market. The key oil pipeline bypassing the strait in Saudi Arabia remains closed, and US diesel prices have just broken $6 per gallon for the first time. The energy supply risk remains unresolved, so oil prices cannot fall. Once oil prices stay high, inflation will be hard to truly cool down. This will firmly hold back the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts, and US Treasury yields will also struggle to decline.
Pay attention to Trump's statement; he said the US-Iran war might end after the midterm elections in November. This is clearly a politically motivated statement—before the election, there is neither a desire to escalate the war nor a real ceasefire plan. This "delay" tactic represents the greatest uncertainty for the market.
The current market logic is extremely conflicted. On one hand, macro funds are defending ahead of the FOMC, with Bitcoin fluctuating between 76,000 and 78,000, repeatedly testing the bottom. On the other hand, the energy crisis could reignite inflation expectations at any time. This is also the fundamental reason why Bitcoin has yet to break through 80,000. Macro liquidity is being suppressed on two fronts, and bulls dare not exert force.
Tomorrow night is the CLARITY Act vote, the day after is the FOMC, plus the Middle East situation—volatility this week will be extremely amplified. $CL $BTC Shipping lanes in crisis! The Strait of Hormuz attacked, oil prices surge, and the FOMC is under intense pressure
Chain reaction:
Geopolitical disruption → rising oil prices → inflation picks up → Fed rate hike expectations rise → risk assets under pressure
The most delicate point in the market now:
Trump has floated ceasefire expectations, temporarily easing some panic, but the attacks have not stopped, and talks are still being postponed.
As long as the sense of security for the strait's navigation disappears, oil prices will continue to pressure the FOMC, and the Fed's rate hike weighting will be further increased this week.
Crypto finds it hard to stay unaffected:
Oil price surge = return of inflation variables, which will strengthen hawkish pricing, and Bitcoin will have to bear macroeconomic headwinds;
Only if the conflict cools down quickly will this negative chain be broken.
The Strait of Hormuz is not distant news; it is rewriting the balance of this week's Fed meeting.
#霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟 Interest rate hike expectations have hit over 85%, yet the market actually fell first as a sign of respect; this sequence is worth pondering.
Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, CPI returned to 3.4%, and hawkish statements directly extinguished the wait-and-see sentiment. What truly suppresses prices is not the decision itself, but that no one dares to increase positions before the decision.
$BTC and $ETH have been relatively resistant to decline in this round; a more likely explanation is that during capital contraction, only the most liquid assets are retained, rather than them having any real safe-haven properties.
Watch the wording of the press conference at 2:30 AM on September 17. If the dot plot still points to further action within the year, the rebound is just short-covering. Don’t mistake defensive counterattacks for a trend reversal.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 $BTC $ETH What exactly is going on with $CAP? Why is it rising again? Let's first look at its fundamentals. Is it really the next $LAB or $BEAT with high suspicion of market manipulation and a pump-and-dump coin? What is its top ten holder concentration?
CAP itself operates an on-chain credit lending and stablecoin yield protocol. It is a narrative combining RWA (real-world assets) and institutional finance. Its TVL is over 300 million plus a market cap of 70 million, which is far higher than the market cap. This indicates that the market valuation is not currently unreasonable. It also has a legitimate background. However, risks exist because the circulating supply is low, meaning more tokens may be released in the future. The low circulating supply structure makes it very easy to pump the price. Institutional holdings are also high. Therefore, CAP represents a DeFi project with real business, but with a low circulation rate and some characteristics of a market dominated by whales; it is not a pure pump-and-dump coin. When trading this coin, pay attention to leverage and position management! This is something I have always emphasized!White House Agrees to Ethical Provisions in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act: Market Structure Legislation Enters Final Window Senate Republicans released the final text of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act / H.R. 3633) on Sunday night. The White House has accepted the core ethical provisions. Republicans view this as the "final plan" before the procedural vote on Tuesday. If passed smoothly, it will mark a key step forward in U.S. digital asset market structure legislation. thehill.com The core of this bill is not a single-point benefit but the incorporation of the digital commodity regulatory framework, the boundaries between stablecoins and the banking system, and official conflict of interest rules into law. 1. Ethical Provisions: Covering the President and Federal Officials The new text prohibits the President and other federal officials (including spouses) from issuing or sponsoring digital assets and restricts their holding of "substantial financial interests." The enforcement scope is expanded compared to previous drafts, allowing state attorneys general to participate in enforcement rather than solely the Department of Justice. Republicans say the White House has accepted most of the Tillis-Gallego ethical proposal. lummis.senate.gov For the industry, this institutionalizes a firewall between public officials and token issuance or platform sponsorship; for the market, it advances long-standing political disputes from "case-by-case games" to "legislative constraints." 2. Stablecoin "Circuit Breaker" Mechanism: Treasury Secretary Granted Authority to Intervene Tomorrow's procedural vote in the Senate is becoming a new betting table for both bulls and bears of Dogecoin. The Republican Party has released the final draft of the "Clarity Act," incorporating 126 amendments proposed by the Democrats. Trump has accepted most of the bipartisan ethics proposals, including granting state attorneys general enforcement authority. Bernstein believes this progress exceeds market consensus, while the just over 30% approval probability on Kalshi indicates that under pessimistic pricing, "any positive surprise is not priced in."
For Dogecoin, the significance of the bill goes beyond sentiment. As a proof-of-work asset with no fundraising history, DOGE has long been classified more as a commodity than a security; once the "Clarity Act" clearly delineates the jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, compliance barriers for spot ETF approvals and payment use cases will be reduced, widening the channel for institutional capital inflows. The DOGE narrative led by Musk also gains an additional layer of policy endorsement. Even if the bill fails to pass, the regulatory process will not stop—the SEC and CFTC will accelerate their own rulemaking, making the path longer but the direction unchanged.
Risks are also clear: if the bill is blocked combined with hawkish Fed statements, the market may face pressure and pullback, amplifying the high-beta volatility of Dogecoin. For holders, rather than betting on the vote outcome, it is better to focus on the regulatory schedule after the vote—that is the slow variable that will determine the valuation center of $DOGE.Night session funds are starting to shift positions. Who will set the pace first among ETH, SUI, and FET?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
The market looks like a night market just entering its busiest period. The main street's foot traffic hasn't noticeably accelerated yet, but several stalls nearby are already forming queues—ETH, SUI, and FET are all waiting for night session funds to make a real choice. The biggest risk at this stage is chasing after a sudden sharp rise; the first wave can only be considered a head start. If the pullback holds steady and volume continues to follow, it indicates that chips are concentrating on the stronger side.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
ETH remains the main switch for risk appetite. As long as the structure holds, funds dare to keep increasing positions; SUI has more direct elasticity—once there's support on the pullback, it can easily accelerate again, but $SUI's true strength depends on whether it can hold after a breakout; FET is more sentiment and volume-driven—the longer it consolidates, the faster it tends to move once active buying appears, often outpacing the mainstream.
Bulls are waiting for three moves: ETH to actively increase volume, $FET to break out without pulling back, and SUI to keep raising its lows. If any two occur, the night session may shift from rotation to offense; bears are waiting for ETH to weaken first, then to see if FET will lead in volume contraction and decline.
Looking ahead, upward moves mean $ETH opening strong, SUI accelerating, and FET taking over; downward moves mean FET losing momentum first, and SUI falling back to the consolidation zone. The real opportunity to follow in the night session isn't the first sudden spike, but who can absorb the initial selling pressure and continue pushing higher.Making this money gave me no sense of achievement at all, purely luck. Just after lunch when I checked the market, $ICX was still pretending to be strong, I almost laughed out loud.
The volume didn't keep up, no one caught it on the way up, heavy false bullish signals, I judged it would fall back, signaled bearish, short position entered at 0.01440.
It dropped all the way to 0.01123, return +220.13%, feeling good brothers, the earlier part was really dragging, but coming out of it feels really sweet.
The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding. Even if you only earn one point, as long as you can take it away, it's yours; floating profits, no matter how much, belong to the market.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection, let the profit run if it continues to drop, don't give back profits on the rebound. Don't be greedy for the last bit.
If you haven't gotten on board, don't chase; chasing shorts can easily get you taught by a rebound, wait for the next signal to move, there are still opportunities, don't rush.
$ETH $LAB Just saw a key piece of news on $ZEC — in the discussion of the US "Clear Act," the SEC and CFTC are advancing regulatory frameworks for assets like BTC, ETH, and ZEC. Previously, regulation was a sword hanging over privacy coins, but now it has become a catalyst. ZEC dropped to 1035 this morning, then sharply rebounded to 1134, up 4.31%. Funds are clearly betting on the expectation of regulation being implemented. Moreover, ZEAL and Robinhood are collaborating on native Zcash DeFi, planning to launch a buy-and-burn mechanism backed by real reserves. On the charts, the super trendline at 1113 has turned into support. This rally is not baseless speculation; there is a fundamental qualitative change underpinning it. Hold your spot positions and see if tomorrow's bill vote can ignite another surge. I see a lot of people asking in the comments how I managed to bounce back later.
I don't want to lie about some bullshit value investing or trading skills.
The money made from crypto trading isn't really income; it's gambling. Professional gamblers can succeed, but many sacrifices are made along the way, and it's very hard to do.
Value investing requires capital, and during the capital accumulation phase, having an income is the most important.
I believe the core is to never leave the circle; this circle has many opportunities to get rich quickly and is close to the money.
So I first continued working a regular job to earn a salary, while also running a Twitter account to accumulate followers and keep up with new things.
On Twitter, you can take advertising, and ads count as income.
But relying on ads alone, you can't get rich quickly; at best, you can maintain a basic living or a bit more.
Using this income to cover living expenses, I then engaged in activities like farming inscriptions, claiming airdrops, swing trading, and opening contracts.
Actually, the most profitable was swing trading, but I don't think my gradual rise was because of swing trading; essentially, I relied on being a KOL and taking advertising deals.
Although the money isn't much, it is capital.
This approach might not suit everyone because many people aren't interested in tweeting.
But having some income is necessary.
If you don't want to be a KOL, you can work a job, deliver food, run a snack shop, start a company—anything that can help accumulate capital.
I'm the kind of person who likes to brag, so I'm suited for Twitter; even if I don't make money, I'm willing to post.
Doing something you’re willing to do even if it doesn’t make money helps you persist.$Lobster looks strong, but in reality, there's considerable pressure above.
Brothers, don't rush to get hyped on Lobster this wave; position is more important than direction. Wait for it to reach the position we want on its own. From the chart, the price hovered repeatedly between 0.135—0.150 for the past few days, then suddenly surged quickly, reaching a high near 0.16. But after the spike, volume didn't continue to expand for a breakout; instead, it quickly fell back, indicating that the major holders started selling after taking profits.
Although there was a large inflow of funds for a short-term breakout attempt, it hasn't yet formed an effective pullback and stabilization. If the rebound touches the level again but fails to hold, I tend to see it as confirmation of resistance rather than a signal to keep chasing the upside.
Strategy: For those wanting to short, focus on positioning after stabilization near 0.154. The first target is around 0.145. Stop loss can be set near 0.158 after stabilization.
Stop loss on breakout, follow the trend under pressure, and don't bet on direction before confirmation from the chart.This isn't a rebound; it's like CPR for my short account, right? Last night before bed, I glanced at $TRIA and almost thought this trade was doomed. But when I opened my eyes this morning, it obediently kept going down.
My entry price was 0.005308, and the logic is straightforward—weak rebound, every upward push falls just short, feels like a one-man show with no one to catch the fall. This kind of movement is clear when you look at it, but buying in is foolish, so I treated it as a short directly.
Now at 0.003398, the account floating profit is +719.66%, definitely worth the wait. This isn't luck; it's confidence given by the structure. Don't lose patience grinding through the volatility, then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
For position management, the first goal is to close 70%, having some capital in hand keeps the mind calm. The remaining 30% is protected at cost, let it run on its own—even if it only gains one point, as long as you can take it away, it's yours.
Now is not the time to enter; once the market moves out, don't chase hard. I'll pop up anytime at a more comfortable position next round, so everyone keep your bullets ready.
$ZEC $SNDK Brother Maji holds three fully long positions, with a total value of approximately $151 million
Ethereum $ETH
This is his heaviest position and the only profitable asset. He holds about 39,800 ETH, with 25x leverage, valued at around $100 million. The average entry price is about $2,480, with a current unrealized profit of approximately $1.21 million, serving as the core support for the entire account. However, the ETH liquidation price is near $2,331, leaving limited buffer from the current price.
$BTC
He holds about 569 BTC, using the highest leverage on the market at 40x, valued at approximately $44.14 million. The average entry price is about $77,548, with only an unrealized profit of $35,000, nearly break-even. Notably, he experienced a full liquidation of his BTC long position in early September, resulting in a loss of about $260,000.
$HYPE
He holds 88,000 HYPE, with 10x leverage, valued at about $7.03 million. The entry price is around $79.86, with a current unrealized loss of about $50,000, the only losing position among the three. HYPE has dropped about 7.3% in the past 7 days, but still shows a 41.5% gain over 30 days.
Overall, his strategy is to leverage an extremely low net value with massive leverage. The unrealized profit in ETH is the only risk buffer, while the performance of BTC and HYPE will determine whether the account can withstand volatility.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Market sentiment clearly warmed today, with Binance's top gainers all turning positive. Funds are scrambling for shares in small-cap and thematic coins, and the flavor of greed is returning. $T 24h +31.0% (Binance Top Gainers) is number one today. This volume pulling up 30% shows capital is fiercely attacking. This is a short-term sentiment indicator. Be cautious of buying when chasing highs. $CVC 24h +28.5% (Binance Top Gainers): Old coins suddenly revived, usually due to news or buying from major players. Such dormant coins often move more than overnight, so it's worth watching for subsequent volume. $FIL 24h +23.1% (Binance Gainers Leaderboard): The storage sector leader finally stood firm. $FIL A large market cap that can jump 20% often signals sector rotation, not isolated markets. $REZ 24h +19.1% (Binance Gainers Leaderboard): Recent coins have high elasticity, rising quickly and falling quickly. Suitable for quick entry and exit, not for buying in and out. $BANK 24h +12.8% (Binance Gainers Leaderboard): Average gains, but the list indicates capital is paying attention. Chasing highs is more comfortable than buying low. $CAKE 24h +8.3% (Binance Gainers) $CAKE is a long-established DeFi asset in the $BNB ecosystem. Its movement is often related to overall ecosystem activity. The gains are small but the direction is worth considering. $LSK (CoinGecko trend): Appearing on the trend list indicates a surge in search heat. Established public chain narratives are occasionally resurfaced, with heat leading the way. Prices may not keep up, so observation is the main focus $Life-or-death vote! The CLARITY Act marks a watershed moment for the crypto market
✅ If it passes, the bill moves forward
Key changes: classify mature assets like BTC and ETH as digital commodities, transferring jurisdiction from the SEC to the CFTC, ending the SEC's stalemate of "enforcement-style regulation" by suing exchanges everywhere.
• Major Wall Street institutions, ETFs, and compliant U.S. exchanges will face significantly lower entry barriers;
• It will bring a wave of regulatory certainty premium, benefiting large-cap coins;
• Small altcoins and non-compliant tokens will face higher compliance thresholds, accelerating polarization;
• DeFi has limited exemptions but is not completely unregulated.
❌ If it fails to get 60 votes, the bill stalls
• Status quo remains: regulatory gray area, SEC continues case-by-case securities law enforcement, lawsuits remain common;
• Expectations for large-scale institutional entry are delayed, short-term market sentiment weakens;
• Funds will prefer offshore platforms, U.S. compliant routes will cool off in the short term;
• The crypto legislative window closes, and the next opportunity may take a long time.
In a nutshell:
CLARITY is not about loosening or flooding the market; it’s about adopting a clearer regulatory framework.
Pass = The U.S. opens a compliant path for crypto;
Fail = Continued chaos and tug-of-war, with long-term uncertainty pricing.
#特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 $ARB This isn't a rebound; it's like CPR for my empty account, right?
Just finished watching the bad news earlier, the market symbolically pulled up a bit, but volume didn't follow, no one was really buying on the way up. I judge this as a bull trap; the resistance above ARB hasn't been digested. I'm still bearish and shorting at the top, opening short positions and waiting for a pullback.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they're the smartest.
During the intraday bottoming, it was dragging on, but in the afternoon, it dropped straight from 0.14470 to 0.13471, +346.23% given directly, enough to have a good meal, the wait wasn't in vain.
First, close 80%, pocket the main chunk, keep the remaining 20% at the protection level to the cost price, if it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don't give it back.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me, now is not the time to rush in; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next move, I'll notify immediately.
$SNDK $BNB 🔥 ETH Liquidation Heatmap Major Update
ETH is currently firmly holding above the brightest liquidity pocket below.
3-day heatmap shows:
📉 Below: $2,450–$2,460 high-intensity long liquidation zone
📈 Above: $2,550–$2,560 dense short leverage cluster, extending with higher density to $2,600–$2,650
Price surged then fell back to the lower liquidation zone, followed by a strong rebound.
The $2,450 area has been tested, and the short cluster above $2,550 has not yet been cleared.
If the rebound holds, $2,550 is likely to become the next magnet target.
What do you think will happen next: sweep the short positions above first, or test the long liquidation below again? Let's discuss in the comments 👇$LIT No monitoring, no thinking, it just jumps there by itself, like working overtime for me.
When the market was just crushed in the morning session, every time LIT surged it was just short of breath, volume couldn't keep up, and there was a layer of sell orders hanging above. I've seen this pattern once and shorted once.
Entered at 4.5543, exited at 4.5543, +79.7% gained, feeling good brothers. Took profit on 70% first, moved the stop loss down with the remaining 30%.
Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, waiting for the next hit.
$ETH $LAB Ethereum made a double top with two spikes this afternoon
Since the explosive rally from 819 until now, it reminded me of the market situation in May and June 2025, when the price was also around 2500
There was a wide-range consolidation lasting a full two months, followed by a raging bull market starting in July and August
During that period, the market was calling for rate cuts every day, but the Fed only started cutting rates three times consecutively in September, while the top had already appeared at the end of August, followed by six consecutive monthly bearish candles!
Let's temporarily call the last bull market the “Rate Cut Expectation Bull”
In June this year, the market was shouting every day that the Fed would hike rates aggressively, but so far no hike has happened; if the first hike starts in September
At this stage, it can be considered a “Rate Hike Expectation Bear”
So the 1503 in June is most likely the lowest point; even if the hike happens, the pullback space won't be large
Unless there are continuous hikes after September, multiple retests of the bottom are possible, providing more opportunities to accumulate at low levels in batches, and naturally a big harvest in the next bull market
Alright, no more nonsense, let's watch for a pullback tonight
First resistance at 2525, second resistance at 2550
Minor support at 2460, major support at 2405 While eating, I casually placed a $ARB short order at 0.13689 with 50x leverage. After finishing, I checked and it was actually running. Now at 0.13469, floating profit is 80.35%.
To be honest, I usually don't touch these established coins because their liquidity is too good and it's hard for the main players to control the market, but that day the order book's sell side was unusually thick, clearly showing a big player was unloading.
The holding logic is simple: the price stayed sideways at a high level for two days with volume thinning day by day, the upper shadows got longer and longer, and the buying side couldn't hold, so it dropped. Now around 0.134, market makers have started absorbing orders, and the frequency of low-level spikes has increased, indicating shorts are taking profits and flipping positions. I've already moved my stop loss above the entry price to lock in no loss.
For friends who haven't entered, don't think you can short just because it dropped a few points. With 50x leverage, $ARB, a coin with good depth, fluctuates very fast in the opposite direction; a single spike can sweep stop losses and then pull back. It's better to wait until the daily-level structure breaks down before acting. Don't gamble your principal for a few minutes of thrill. $BTC $ETH #Anthropic plans to IPO on Nasdaq
HBM and storage are about to change: one AI giant exits the secondary market, another rushes to IPO
Impact on the AI storage sector:
Many see OpenAI not going public and immediately bearish on HBM and storage, which is a typical superficial misconception.
OpenAI not going public ≠ stopping computing power expansion; it just switched fundraising to primary private placements;
Once Anthropic's IPO succeeds, massive new capital will convert into rigid orders for GPUs, HBM, and enterprise storage.
Two clear paths have emerged:
✅OpenAI: private AI giant, controls growth freely, not bound by financial reports
✅Anthropic: public AI giant, uses capital to build arms, procurement is more predictable
The only looming question: will the market accept the 2 trillion valuation?
If IPO pricing falls short of expectations, it will severely damage AI hardware risk appetite;
If the story succeeds, the storage industry chain will see new demand variables.
Verbal brakes, but stacking computing power in hand.
AI is not cooling down; it's just that wild growth has ended, and a regulated arms race has begun.
$SNDK $xMU Everyone is focused on BTC ETFs, but these five small coins have already tied themselves to big narratives
BTC hovers around 77,000, ETF funds flow in and out, everyone is watching the mainstream, but some small coins have already linked themselves to major narratives 😋.
$TRUMP 1.99, don’t just treat it as a meme, the family holds 8,300 BTC, 90,000 mining machines, and has submitted a third BTC ETF proposal. The GENIUS stablecoin bill has also been signed. Essentially, it acts as the sentiment proxy for US crypto policy. If it holds 1.7, there will be policy impulses. Do you still believe in policy-driven rallies?
$CORE 0.0184, a serious BTC L2, Coinbase just officially listed it on September 11, and the hard fork vulnerability has been fixed. The positive news is currently suppressed by panic. Once BTC chooses an upward direction, the L2 sector will rebound first. If it can’t reclaim 0.0177 by close, it will move lower.
$SLX 0.064, an institutional yield product on Solana, TVL quietly broke $500 million. It’s one foot on Solana and one on AI. aiUSX will launch soon. When the market drops, it actually runs an independent trend. Remember to exit before unlocking.
$BCH 223, the most neglected BTC relative. After the SEC leadership change, the market bets it’s the next spot ETF candidate. There are real rumors of filing. This veteran coin, dormant for a year, is bouncing the strongest.
$BOME 0.00084, a front-runner Solana meme coin, currently stuck at the 50-day moving average 0.000807. When SOL strengthens and meme sentiment warms up, it moves first. If it breaks the line, it’s out.The price first swept the range low near $76.4K, then quickly reversed and regained above the upper boundary of the $77.8K range—a relatively clean liquidity sweep + reclaim. However, during the rise, a price gap near $77.0K remains unfilled. For me, this means chasing long directly above $77.8K is not ideal. My plan is simpler: wait for the price to test near $77.0K and see if this area can turn into support. If buying reappears after the pullback, consider following the upside, targeting liquidity near $79.8K. There are still several variables to watch in the market: • BTC is still within the large $76K–$82K range recently, with significant resistance above $80K. • The latest macro environment is cautious, and Fed rate expectations are putting pressure on risk assets. • ETF capital flows and changes in exchange BTC reserves may also affect the sustainability of this breakout. • From a broader structural perspective, if BTC truly wants to confirm a new bull market, the market is still watching key resistance near $81.7K. So for me now, it's not about "chasing after a breakout," but rather: chasing the $77.8K above ❌ $77.0K and pulling back to confirm ✅ the $79.8K liquidity target 🎯 Chasing the breakout$SKHY, this obscure coin pumped is a trap, topped at 179.5 with 50x short, now at 176.39, floating profit 86.62%. High-level sideways consolidation with volume exhaustion, a single bearish candle breaking support will trigger a drop.
Positioning is smooth but don't be greedy with 50x leverage, around 176 the battle tightens, profit-taking flips. Reduced position to lock in most profits, remaining position to push stop loss.
If you missed it, don't rush; chasing shorts easily gets stuck mid-move, wait for a pullback confirmation before entering, don't gamble principal on sentiment. $BTC $ETH XRP further rose with a 4H close, hitting 1.4098 before volume retreated
From 12 to 16 o'clock, XRP 4H closed at 1.3908, surpassing the previous six highs at 1.3808; trading volume was 8,566,400 USDT, a slight increase of only 2.31% compared to before, with price breakout faster than volume expansion.
Between 17 and 18 o'clock, it once touched 1.4098 and closed at 1.4029, with a trading volume of 6,387,100; from 18 to 19 o'clock, it retreated to 1.3970, and volume shrank to 4,190,700, still holding above 1.3908.
Confirmation: subsequent 4H close above 1.4098 with trading volume not less than 8,566,400 USDT; invalidation: 4H close below 1.3908. Which data would you use to judge whether this pullback is healthy?
#XRP #MainstreamCoin #TradingWatch$PONS The largest short position starts to close
This guy turned from a floating loss of over $8 million to a profit of $2.8 million
The average opening price was 0.66, and the total position has decreased from 27.75 million tokens to 27.02 million tokens
Watching his operation, closing a few hundred tokens each time, it probably isn't manual. If it were manual, how long would it take to close?$LIT bled all day Saturday down to 4.0437, then ripped 16% in three hours this morning. Biggest volume on the chart came on the way up.
That's the part worth noticing. The selling was slow and quiet. The buying was fast and loud. When a chart flips character like that, it usually means different money showed up.
4.35 is my line now. Hold above it and the base is real. Lose it and this was just a squeeze. $ZEC is retracing after its recent explosive move, while the 4H chart continues to show a developing CHoCH. I’m keeping the 1H timeframe on watch for a move back into the FVG before looking for a potential short. The 15M structure has also produced a fresh BOS, giving us an early sign that sellers may be gaining some short-term control. 📊 Updated levels: • Initial support: $1,030–$1,050 • FVG / reaction zone: $1,085–$1,110 • Major supply: $1,140–$1,175 • Downside targets: $1,000 → $965 → $925 ?The easiest mistake to make in DeFi today: just because CRV is the strongest gainer, people assume the entire sector has recovered.
#Lending, yield, trading pools—capital is not treated equally
$CRV is about $0.353, up nearly 5% intraday. Pumping the price up initially isn’t hard; the challenge is whether a second wave of spot buyers will follow. Around 0.355 is the intraday upper boundary; if it can’t break through, treat it as a rebound for now; 0.33 has been broken again, so don’t expect short-term “holding back sales.” It’s still clearly weak over the week, and today’s green candle hasn’t erased previous losses.
$PENDLE is about $2.22, up nearly 3% intraday, showing a more restrained pattern than CRV. Whether it can sustain trades around 2.23 is more important than a single breakout. Market talk about yield trading doesn’t mean tokens will keep rising; holding 2.08 is necessary to have confidence for further upward attempts.
$AAVE is about $126, actually down slightly today. Having users on the protocol doesn’t mean the token will be immediately bought in the short term; only if it breaks above 128 does it look like capital is shifting from speculative rebounds back to DeFi’s core. AAVE focuses on lending, PENDLE on yield trading, CRV is closer to stablecoin liquidity—don’t lump these three buying forces together just because they’re all DeFi. My judgment is simple: CRV leads the rally, PENDLE follows, AAVE strengthens; at least two of these three steps must happen for me to acknowledge sector rotation. Chasing only the hottest token risks becoming the bag holder at the most crowded point. #Trump accepts new ethics rules, CLARITY vote approaching
Tomorrow is the Senate procedural vote, the last window for the CLARITY Act in 2026. If it passes, the crypto regulatory framework will accelerate; if it fails, the earliest chance will be 2029.
Even if the vote passes, it still needs to go through debates, amendments, and final reviews. If it drags past the midterm elections, the new Congress in 2027 will have to restart the entire legislative process.
The Democrats' main concerns about the bill are lax anti-money laundering provisions and conflicts of interest in public officials' crypto assets. To secure a hearing, the negotiated version significantly improves ethics rules: public officials' crypto assets must be sold or placed in blind trusts, and state attorneys general are granted corresponding enforcement powers.
But compromise does not guarantee passage. The Republicans hold only 53 seats and need Democratic support; some party members still disagree on stablecoin yield provisions, posing a risk of defections. Prediction markets give only a 16% chance of passage.
For BTC and ETH, this vote mainly brings short-term market volatility. In the long term, crypto moving toward compliance is the main trend. Holders need not blindly chase rises or sell-offs; just wait quietly for the early morning results. $BTC, $ETH $BTC just broke out of a two-day range and I don't trust the first move.
Price swept the range low at 76.4K, reversed hard, and is now above the range high at 77.8K. Clean sweep and reclaim. But it left an untested gap at 77.0K on the way up, and that kind of gap usually gets filled before continuation.
My plan is to wait for the dip into 77.0K rather than chase 77.8K. Target is the liquidity above 79.8K.
Chasing or waiting for the retrace💰 $BTC —Only a few ways to make money in crypto:
1️⃣ Airdrops: Made ~$400K through ZK airdrops.
2️⃣ Spot: Bought $BTC near $18K and $ETH near $1.5K in late 2022,exiting around $115K and $4.1K.
3️⃣ Futures: Lost tens of thousands. The stress wasn’t worth it,so I quit.
4️⃣ KOL: I don’t chase views. I document my thoughts,decisions,and progress.
5️⃣ Building: I value freedom,so I prefer working independntly.
Different paths, different risks. Find what fits your mindset and risk tolerance. CVC at $0.035, are you going to chase it?
First, look at the surface: an old coin is making a comeback, the whole network is shouting "CVC is about to fly."
Today, CVC ignited directly from 0.022-0.023, reaching an intraday high of 0.046-0.060, with a 24-hour increase of 30%-50%+, and a trading volume hitting $200 million to $250 million. Its market cap is only 32 million to 36 million, with a turnover rate 6-7 times its market cap. Then what? It surged and then pulled back, now hovering around 0.035. A typical low market cap speculative pulse. Funds concentrate in, pump it up, then take profits.
First thing: no official positive news, purely capital rotation.
Today, Civic's official channels had no major announcements, no partnership launches, no fundamental changes.
The reason for the rise is just one: liquidity suddenly concentrated, funds rotated into established Ethereum utility tokens. Similar old names like LSK and STEEM were also pumped together.
Second thing: a 2017 old project, with a story, but the token lacks capture.
Civic is a 2017 project, with 1 billion tokens fully circulating, market cap only 32 million to 36 million, a small cap among small caps. Its core business is decentralized identity (DID), Web3 login/authentication, solving repeated KYC pain points, expanding DeFi onboarding, anti-bot gaming, and RWA compliance.
It has SOC 2 certification and Nexus workflow automation, sounds solid.
But the token itself lacks a strong capture mechanism. It is more of an ecosystem incentive and trading medium, not a "protocol earns money and directly buys back and burns" type of hard asset.
Third thing: highly concentrated chips, explosive turnover, this is the dealer's game.
Top 10 addresses hold about 77%, a single address about 44%.
The chips are in others' hands, the candlesticks are in others' hands, your stop loss is also in others' hands.
Today's turnover is 6-7 times, huge volume. Many think "volume increase means accumulation," but for low market cap coins, huge volume more often means concentrated capital inflow and outflow, not continuous building. Once volume shrinks, it's a "air pocket" pullback—when buying stops, price free falls.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Funds rotate into established ETH utility coins, CVC has DID narrative
Product shifts to Civic Auth SDK, covering EVM+Solana
Small market cap, low cost to pump, emotions drive fast rises
On the other side:
No official major positive news, purely capital-driven
Top 10 holdings 77%, single 44%, dealer controls the market
Turnover 6-7 times, today's funds may leave tomorrow
Macro is tight, Fed + US bonds + ETF outflows suppressing
Resistance above: 0.040-0.042 → 0.045-0.050
Support below: 0.030-0.028 → 0.025 (strong support)
Trading strategy
Short term:
If it pulls back to 0.030-0.028 and a 1-hour stop-fall signal appears (volume surge with bullish candle or long lower shadow), you can lightly try long, target 0.038-0.042, stop loss below 0.026. If it fails to hold 0.028 and falls with volume, bearish bias, target 0.025 or even lower, stop loss above 0.033.
Mid term:
Wait for macro to settle (after Fed decision). If BTC stabilizes and CVC can surge again above 0.028, it can be seen as a continuation of the rebound; otherwise, treat it as a pulse then return to the original range. Mid-term is better to wait for a pullback to 0.025-0.028 area before reassessing, rather than heavy positions now.
CVC rose 50% today, not because it changed, but because funds have nowhere else to go.
You chase the gains, the main force wants your principal.
At 0.035, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $ETH $CVC This order was opened just as I closed the software and reopened it; a careless click actually turned out right. Shorted $EDGE with 20x leverage, opened at 0.6548, now at 0.6217, floating profit 101.09%.
Before closing the software, I caught a glimpse of three high upper shadows stacked together, visible selling pressure, so I nervously placed the order. Around 0.62, some funds started probing the bottom, the wicks became denser, and the bears accelerated their turnover. With double profits secured, I cut half to lock in gains and kept the remaining position at breakeven stop loss.
If you haven't entered, don't chase. At this level, a drop followed by a rebound is just a trap. Wait for a bounce back above 0.64 to confirm resistance before making a move. Being steady beats being reckless. $BTC $ETH When watching the market late at night, veteran traders have a habit: they use the audio of the Washington hearing as background noise. Every word spoken by politicians on Capitol Hill sounds like a sacred moral declaration, with nothing but a calculated calculation of interests beneath it. The hottest news in the circle these past few days is that Senate Republicans updated the text of the CLARITY Act, and even more intriguingly, Trump actually swallowed the moral provisions—basically adopting nearly 80% of the content from Tillis-Gallego's bipartisan proposal. The most striking aspect is the expansion of the Attorney General's (AG) enforcement powers and the mandatory requirement for officials holding shares of large crypto asset issuers to strip off or establish blind trusts. Schumer immediately called a closed-door meeting among core Democratic members, all eyes on the procedural vote on September 15 that would require 60 votes to advance the debate. Many new investors are still cheering that "Trump's compromise is good for the industry" or mocking "the understanding king is bowing his head." But in the eyes of veterans, there has never been a true conscience in politics, only bargaining chips. Trump has struggled in the business world all his life; would he really bind himself for so-called public morality? Impossible. The only explanation is that this moral clause was a "buy money" he paid to secure the approval of the crypto bill from both pro-establishment parties. Without this 80% concession, the bill wouldn't even reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate; the grand narrative that follows would be everything【Multiple Bottom? Stopping the Decline Does Not Equal a Reversal】
BTC
The small neckline at 775 has passed. As per yesterday's view, the small-scale decline has stopped. But there is heavy resistance above here; the higher point at the hourly level is 796. If this level cannot be surpassed, objectively the hourly level still lacks a bullish structure~~
This weekend's multiple bottom at 765 can only be considered as intraday short-term support. From the perspective of the 7.6-8.23 consolidation zone, my personal subjective view is that it won't drop below 7.6 for a sweep. The upside is quite limited.
Intraday, with the current price, the risk-reward ratio for both longs and shorts is not favorable. It is recommended to stay out of positions here. Either wait for a breakout above 796 to confirm a bullish trend and enter on a pullback, or wait for a sweep around 7.6 before engaging in trading.
For those already in short-term positions, if the price remains blocked at 781 after the evening open, it is advised to prepare timely defenses.
$BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Super central bank week is here, and there are no absolutely safe options now.
Previously, the market was still betting on a rate cut, but the trend completely reversed within a few weeks.
BTC is now in a typical pre-meeting volatile squeeze.
Within 24 hours, there were sharp fluctuations, 120,000 traders liquidated, both longs and shorts hit hard, with the 76500–78500 range repeatedly consolidating chips.
75800 is a key strong support; above that, heavy selling pressure accumulates at 77500‑78500.
On one side, inflation data forces the Fed to act; on the other, the White House and politicians oppose rate hikes. The Fed must control inflation while bearing political pressure, making this game more important than the interest rate figures themselves.
Three scenarios are on the table:
1️⃣ True rate hike + hawkish speech: risk assets plunge, BTC dips to the 74000–75000 range;
2️⃣ No rate hike but hawkish stance: maintaining high rates longer, short-term volatility, mid-term bearish logic unchanged;
3️⃣ No rate hike + dovish statement: all bad news priced in, a short-term rebound reaching 78500‑79500.
The biggest mistake most retail investors make: heavily betting now on either a rate hike or no hike.
Top players won’t all-in on one outcome early; they keep light positions and liquidity ready, waiting for the referee’s whistle.
Remember: what can truly crash the market isn’t just whether they raise or not by 25 basis points,
it’s the entire future interest rate path set by one sentence from Powell.
This week, all the volatility is just waiting for that segment of the press conference text.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC is currently consolidating narrowly around $76,700, with an intraday high of $77,400 and a low near $76,500. The price is compressed within a very tight range, which itself is a signal worth noting—the true short-term direction has yet to be revealed.😌
The next critical observation is the outcome at the $77,400 and $76,500 levels. If it breaks above and holds above $77,400, the short-term target could be $78,500; if it falls below $76,500, caution is needed for a possible retest around $75,500. Mechanically, this is a typical range-bound battle: capital probes near key levels, and the direction is determined by the strength of the follow-through after the breakout, not by a single candlestick.
This compression often means liquidity is accumulating on both sides, and once a breakout is triggered, volatility may be amplified. Therefore, false breakouts at the edges of the range are risks to watch out for. In terms of observation, pay attention to whether the price can close consecutively outside the key levels after a breakout, rather than just looking at momentary spikes.
The most common mistake is to hastily change plans based on a single candle. A more prudent approach is to wait for confirmation at key levels before deciding whether to follow, without guessing tops or bottoms. Before the range is broken, chasing highs or selling lows often results in losses on both ends.
Risk reminder: The above is only a market structure observation and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please strictly control your position size and risk.Opened a short on ETH at 2525.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
To be honest, I don't feel particularly confident after opening this position.
Because 2525 is neither an absolute high nor far from the round number 2500. There is support below and trapped positions above, so the most likely scenario is repeated oscillations, testing both longs and shorts.
Let's start with the technical structure.
ETH previously rallied on CPI sentiment, reaching a high near 2600, but after breaking through, it failed to hold and quickly returned to the previous consolidation range. This indicates that the chasing funds above 2600 temporarily cannot absorb the selling pressure, and the short-term trend has shifted from a strong breakout to a pullback after a rally.
So I opened a short at 2525 mainly betting on weakening rebound strength, not directly judging that ETH has already peaked.
Currently, the 2500–2550 range is the most critical battleground.
If the rebound fails to hold above 2550 or falls back after reaching 2550–2580, the structure of lower highs will become more apparent, and the short position can initially target 2500. If 2500 breaks, then look at 2470–2450; if 2450 also fails to hold, there is a chance to further drop near 2400.
But the capital flow cannot be viewed as entirely bearish.
Recently, ETH spot ETFs still see inflows, indicating institutional funds have not fully withdrawn and there is still support below. This means even if the price breaks 2500, it may not immediately enter a one-sided decline and could be accompanied by quick rebounds.
Sentiment is also worth noting.
After ETH broke 2600, the market clearly started chasing the rally. If these chasing longs get trapped and the price breaks 2500, it could trigger stop losses and accelerate the decline; conversely, if everyone is shorting near 2500, the main force might first push the price up to clear short-term shorts before choosing a direction.
On the macro side, the Fed interest rate decision is coming this week.
The positive sentiment from CPI has already been priced in. What will truly affect the market next is the Fed's stance on inflation and rates. If the tone is hawkish, the dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and risk assets like ETH are likely to continue falling; if the outcome is more moderate than expected, ETH might challenge 2580 or even 2600 again.
Also, BTC's cooperation matters.
ETH currently struggles to move independently. If BTC continues to weaken, the probability of ETH breaking 2500 increases; if BTC rallies and holds, ETH's bearish structure could be quickly invalidated.
So for this short at 2525, my judgment criteria are clear:
As long as ETH stays below 2550–2580 and the pullback after rally logic holds, I will keep watching 2500 and 2450.
If ETH regains 2580 on the hourly chart and then breaks 2600 with volume, it means the previous decline might just be a retest, and the short logic basically fails. I can't comfort myself with "it always falls after rising this high."
This trade has logic but the entry is not perfect.
What I hope to see now is not a sudden crash of ETH, but a weak rebound followed by a gradual break below 2500. This kind of bearish structure is more reliable than a single sharp spike up and down.🟠 BTC + 🔵 ETH + 🟣 SOL｜The next key lies in "market breadth" 👀
Currently, BTC is stabilizing around $77K–$78K, but what truly determines whether this rebound can continue is not just BTC rising alone, but whether ETH and SOL can follow suit. Today, BTC is about $77.7K, still below the critical psychological resistance at $80K.�
Barron's +1
📊 BTC → Market Direction
If BTC can firmly hold above $78.5K–$79K and further challenge $80K, market sentiment will significantly improve.
🔵 ETH → Capital Participation
If ETH starts to clearly outperform BTC, it indicates that capital is spreading from BTC to a broader crypto ecosystem.
🟣 SOL → Risk Appetite
If SOL simultaneously surges with volume, it means traders are willing to take on higher risk again, which is usually an important signal of increased market risk appetite.
🔥 The truly strong signal: BTC + ETH + SOL all rising together.
This is more convincing than a simple BTC rebound because it means the rise may come from broader capital demand rather than localized buying.
⚠️ Conversely, if BTC consolidates sideways while ETH/SOL The most dangerous piece on the chessboard is never the opponent's sacrificed piece, but when you think you see the whole board clearly yet miscount the squares on the second move. When the $xAAPL piece was placed, I saw two chessboards fighting simultaneously—the slow game of Nasdaq and the fast game of crypto, their clocks completely out of sync. Most people focus on token prices chasing highs and lows; that's amateur play, taking it step by step. True grandmasters calculate the liquidation spreads, market maker inventories, and the silent check from the US stock market opening.
Tokenized stocks are endgame thinking, not opening tricks. Their value lies not in leverage multiples but in moving the liquidity finale of US stocks onto a never-closing chessboard. You need to understand the midgame battle here: US stock dealers position during the day, crypto funds push pieces in thin markets at night, with slippage and funding rates as traps laid by the opponent each round. Whoever manages positions precisely down to the pawn's square movement can seize the initiative during turnover.
What is stop loss? It's the non-negotiable baseline in the king's wing pawn sacrifice. You can sacrifice a pawn in the endgame to gain initiative, but never expose the king to the opponent's hook. Many lose not because of judgment but position management—they occupy the wrong square at the wrong time and then get checkmated by a simple passing pawn.
I don't look at single trade wins or losses; I look at the overall piece value ratio on the board. When a target's market linkage depth is insufficient, it’s like a lone pawn—seemingly advancing but always at risk of being captured. True masters treat every trade as endgame training: first calculate where forced draws and check lines are, then decide whether to sacrifice pieces to attack. Remember, the most costly thing in this game is not loss but wasting the initiative in a round when you shouldn't have moved. #okxtradervoices80% unrealized profit feels good, holding a lot of $FLOCK, 20x leverage, opened at 0.06606, entered at a high point, now at 0.0687, riding a mild rebound.
The logic is simple: weak trend stops falling, reclaims key level, only follow when short-term trend turns bullish. Leveraged positions must allow for error tolerance, don’t get disrupted by a single spike.
In the background, altcoin rotation continues, AI sector has capital probing, FLOCK is supported by narrative and trading heat, so the price climbs slowly.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
Short-term outlook is slightly strong but oscillations are possible, above 0.066 is considered healthy. Recommend partial profit-taking, watch volume for the rest, if rebound lacks strength then exit, safer is better. $CAP $LAB But a strong rally does not mean risk disappears. 📈 The current $ZEC has entered a clear emotional high-temperature zone, with the price deviating from the cycle average approaching the extreme zone seen before the previous major market peaks. ⚠️ This does not mean $ZEC will definitely peak today, nor does it mean the uptrend has ended. What really needs to change is risk management: around $400 → the market suspects $750 → trend confirms $1,000+ → heat accelerates → now need to be more vigilant about high volatility and mean reversion. Meanwhile, the market is still digesting US inflation data and Fed policy expectations; interest rate paths, dollar liquidity, and BTC trends may amplify volatility in high-beta assets. So I won't chase gains out of FOMO now. If $ZEC continues to strengthen, let the price prove the trend itself; If there is a spike in volume and pullback, a receding capital flow, or a breakout below a key structure, consider whether risk is shifting. The hardest part of a bull market is not finding opportunities, but protecting profits when opportunities become crowded $BTC $ZEC #USCPIReignitesHikeOdds #ZECGoesInstitutional$BTC Bitcoin rose to $78,096 today, up 1.7% in 24 hours.
But the most surreal thing isn't this number.
US AI chip stocks all plunged. SK Hynix dropped over 6%, Intel over 6%, Corning over 7%, AMD over 5%, Micron nearly 5%, Nvidia down 2.7%.
What's the reason?
AI is too risky, tech stocks crashed. Then money flowed into the crypto market, and Bitcoin rose against the trend.
I looked at this logic for a long time and found it quite absurd. But that's how the market moves.
However, despite the rise, there's a data point that contradicts this.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $463 million last week, the first weekly net outflow since September. ARKB outflowed $234 million, GBTC $129 million, BlackRock's IBIT also outflowed $52.57 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $197 million in the same period, buying for the fourth consecutive week.
Institutions are shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum. The money hasn't disappeared, just moved places.
In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $278 million, with long positions liquidated at $196 million. 114,000 people were wiped out in one wave, the largest liquidation happened on Binance, where an Ethereum long position was liquidated for $4.46 million.
Discuss in the comments: AI panic caused tech stocks to fall and Bitcoin to rise, how many days do you think this logic can hold?Watching the market, I found that $SNDK has an absurdly thick sell order above 1563.9, and the buy orders can't absorb it at all, so I decisively shorted at 75x leverage. Currently at 1542.41, up +103.05%.
Volume-price divergence combined with order book suppression, the main downtrend wave is progressing smoothly. But after the 75x short position doubled in profit, the mindset must shift to defense.
The current price is approaching short-term support, bulls are starting to buy, and volatility will increase. I chose to take profits on most of my position and set a breakeven stop loss on the remaining.
For those waiting on the sidelines, don’t be envious; chasing shorts here has a very poor risk-reward ratio, a single rebound candlestick will trigger a stop out. Wait for the structure to complete. $BTC $ZEC Account Position Divergence Radar
$LAB: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.808, top positions long-short ratio is 0.625; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 5.019; price increased by 1.73%, position value changed by +1.79%.
$DOGE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.660, top positions long-short ratio is 0.761; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 4.074; price decreased by 0.06%, position value changed by -0.21%.
$SUI: Both top accounts and top positions are biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.871, top positions long-short ratio is 0.775; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.221; price increased by 0.18%, position value changed by -0.06%. The structure of the number of accounts and position distribution in the top group are aligned.
LAB, DOGE: The side with the majority of accounts is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
LAB, DOGE, SUI: The overall market account structure is biased towards long positions, which also differs from the bias in top positions.AI and Quantum Technology: Are They a Threat to BTC Security?
1. Quantum Computing: A Long-Term Threat, Not an Immediate Crisis
Bitcoin's security is based on two major cryptographic systems:
1. SHA‑256 mining hash algorithm: Quantum computing is almost incapable of breaking this; quantum only provides a slight acceleration for hashing, so the mining mechanism is not threatened by quantum.
2. Elliptic Curve Signature (secp256k1/ECDSA): This is the weak point for quantum.
A mature fault-tolerant quantum computer, using Shor's algorithm, could derive private keys from public keys exposed on the blockchain, thereby stealing assets.
Key Practical Boundaries
1. There are currently no available attack-capable quantum computers. Today's quantum machines are still laboratory prototypes and require a large number of physical qubits to break BTC signatures, making this a long-term risk spanning years to decades, not an immediate disaster.
2. Not all BTC addresses are equally vulnerable:
- Risky addresses: old addresses with public keys already exposed on the chain;
- Relatively safe: new Taproot addresses, where public keys are not exposed long-term;
- Quantum attacks can only steal assets corresponding to private keys, but cannot tamper with the BTC ledger, create coins out of thin air, or destroy the entire Bitcoin network.
The BTC Community Is Already Preparing Against Quantum Threats
- BIP‑360 proposal: introduces new quantum-resistant addresses that no longer expose public keys long-term, implemented via a soft fork upgrade to protect newly created UTXOs.
- Long-term plan: adopt NIST-standardized post-quantum cryptography (PQC) to replace elliptic curve signature algorithms, fundamentally resisting quantum attacks.
- Challenges: post-quantum signatures are large in size, consuming block space; the community is still debating migration plans, requiring network-wide consensus upgrades, which will not happen overnight.
Summary: Quantum computing is a significant long-term technical challenge but will not immediately destroy BTC; as long as protocol upgrades are completed before quantum computers mature, the risk can be controlled.
2. AI Artificial Intelligence: Will Not Break BTC's Underlying Protocol but Amplifies Ecosystem Risks
AI cannot break Bitcoin's underlying cryptography; it cannot directly break SHA‑256 or signature algorithms. AI's threats are entirely on the upper ecosystem, user side, and third-party tools:
Risks brought by AI (attack side)
1. Automated discovery of wallet, node, and third-party software vulnerabilities: AI rapidly scans firmware and wallet code to find zero-day vulnerabilities, greatly lowering the barrier for hackers. Many theft incidents stem from wallet firmware vulnerabilities, not the BTC mainnet itself.
2. AI phishing and deepfake social engineering attacks: AI generates highly convincing customer service personas, fake messages, and deepfake videos to deceive users into revealing private keys and mnemonic phrases, which is the most common source of real-world losses.
3. AI automated trading, amplifying market volatility and creating market manipulation.
AI Can Also Be Used for Defense
AI can perform code audits, scan for vulnerabilities, and detect abnormal transactions, helping developers quickly fix security issues and improve ecosystem security.
In short: AI does not threaten the BTC mainnet itself but intensifies security battles at the wallet, exchange, and user levels.
3. Overall Summary
1. Quantum computing: a long-term threat, not an immediate risk. The threat targets elliptic curve signatures without damaging mining or the ledger; the community has initiated quantum-resistant upgrade plans, whose success depends on future consensus progress.
2. AI: will not break BTC's core but poses risks at the ecosystem's upper layers, including wallets, software, and phishing attacks; both attack and defense capabilities are evolving.
3. Real risk distinctions:
- ✅ BTC's underlying ledger and mining consensus: currently very secure;
- ⚠️ Users' wallets, addresses, and third-party software are the main targets for AI and future quantum attacks.