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ETH at $2515, are you buying? First glance: volatile but leaning strong, yet down 16% year-to-date. Up 31-34% in the past month, breaking above the 20/50/200-day moving averages, RSI at 58-61, not overbought. Today a small rebound of 1.5%, bouncing from 2460 back to 2515. Short-term bullish alignment, 4-hour EMA50 support effective, direction undecided, waiting for the FOMC decision. First point: ETF funds are rotating, BTC outflows, ETH inflows. On September 11, spot ETH ETF net inflow was $216.4 million, with BlackRock ETHA contributing $149 million. Meanwhile, BTC ETFs saw net outflows. Institutions are moving from Bitcoin to Ethereum. ETH staking ratio is 34%, exit queue near zero, circulating supply continues to tighten. When institutional BTC funds start relocating, ETH's catch-up rally may just be beginning. Second point: FOMC is a double-edged sword, but the market has priced it in early. FOMC on September 15-16, market pricing a 79-90% chance of a 25bp rate hike. August CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, core inflation remains sticky. The key is not whether to hike, but the dot plot. If it signals a "one-time hike" rather than a new cycle, the bad news is out, and risk assets will take off. If it hints at continued hikes, short-term pressure— but ETH has already retraced from 2660 down to 2460, priced in early. Third point: technically, it's time to choose a side. On September 11, a strong bullish candle hit 2660, then dropped to 2460, and rebounded today. Is this a shakeout or distribution? Look at two levels: 2550: Breakout with volume, short-term bulls recover, target 2660-2700. 2460: Breakdown, retest 2400 or even lower. Daily RSI 58-61, still room to rise, but MACD histogram shows divergence. Breaking 2550 means choosing direction; breaking 2460 means a second bottom test. Bull vs. bear, you decide. On one side: ETH ETFs have consecutive days of inflows, BTC outflows, institutional rotation 34% staking, exit queue near zero, supply tightening Above all moving averages, RSI not overbought Clarity Act Senate vote on September 15, potential positive catalyst Stablecoins, RWA, DeFi TVL still leading On the other side: FOMC uncertainty, high probability of rate hike Down 16% year-to-date, far from ATH 4950 L2 fee diversion, value capture questioned Three failed attempts at 2550, selling pressure remains If BTC falls, ETH follows Resistance above: 2550 → 2580 → 2660-2670 → 2700-2800 Support below: 2460-2480 (strong support) → 2430-2440 → 2400 Trading strategy Short-term traders: Wait for a pullback to 2480-2500 to stabilize, look for lower shadows or 4H stop-fall candles, lightly go long with stop loss at 2460, target 2550-2580. If volume confirms holding above 2550, add and target 2660. If rebound stalls at 2540-2550 with resistance, consider light short positions, stop loss 2580, target 2480. Swing traders: Wait for FOMC outcome + Clarity vote, daily close above 2550 to enter on the right side, target 2700-2800. Exit unconditionally if below 2460. Long-term believers: Buy the dip below 2400 with eyes closed. Staking tightening + institutional adoption accelerating + ETF structural buying, target 3000-3500 by end of 2026. But don’t go all in, keep funds to add after FOMC. ETH now is like Bitcoin in 2020— Everyone is waiting for FOMC, institutions are quietly buying. ETF funds flowing from BTC to ETH is no coincidence. The day 2550 breaks out, you’ll realize: It’s not that ETH can’t perform, it’s that you got scared away before the event again. After FOMC, will you dare to get on at 2515? $BTC $ETH $FIL