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Bonk Guy discouraged Arc this time, with an interesting reason — "Best execution" does not equal "the next Solana."
I casually counted, and FOMO, DEX Screener, Argus, Tolly, Lift, Long — all six platforms are connected. This kind of lineup definitely doesn't look like a small project.
But wait.
Having many connected platforms means strong BD capabilities, not that users are actually pouring real money in. These two things are often confused.
Experienced investors know that the wider the launch platforms, the easier it is early on to turn into a "who will take over" game. Good execution is a good thing, but there's still a river between good execution and being valuable.
He himself said, don't see it as Robinhood, BNB, or Solana. So the question is — if not those, then what should it be seen as?
#Arc主网上线首日数据出炉 $SOL 📂 20U Real Account Record 079
💰 Principal: 20U
📈 Profit on this trade: Position open
✅ Total earnings: +40U
📌 Current position: $SOL 5x long
I've been pondering a question these past two days:
The market news is actually quite bad right now, so why is SOL slowly returning to around 100?
Earlier, SOL dropped to about 96 but didn't continue to fall; instead, it gradually recovered.
The funding situation isn't particularly good either.
Yesterday, BTC spot ETF still saw net outflows, and there’s no obvious capital inflow in the market.
So now I'm actually paying attention to this detail.
If the market really were weak, given this environment, SOL should continue to drop.
But now it just isn’t falling much.
This is also why I dared to take this long position at 97.1.
Of course, with 5x leverage, I’m not being stubborn.
The stop loss at 94.9 is already set; if it hits, I’ll accept it.
For now, I’m watching to see if it can hold at 100.
If it holds, I’ll keep holding and see.
If it falls back below 97, then I’ll honestly exit.
Is this wave really forming a bottom, or is it just trying to trick me into getting on board...
Let’s wait and see.$SOL has once again approached the $100 mark. This round of recovery from the lows shows seemingly strong price momentum; however, the trading volume has not increased correspondingly. During the price climb, volume has actually gradually decreased. Judging solely by price, one might mistakenly believe that the bulls have regained control of the market rhythm, but in reality, the strength of capital follow-through is not significant. Further observation of position data shows that the proportion of long positions has risen to about 67%, with market sentiment clearly leaning bullish. With rising prices and highly concentrated positions, this situation is prone to intensify short-term trading divergences. If resistance appears above, rapid long position liquidations may occur. The current position of SOL is quite delicate, with $100 forming a significant psychological resistance level. Whether it can hold steady at this price will depend decisively on subsequent volume and capital cooperation. The sustainability of this rise, based solely on shrinking volume, is indeed questionable. 有粉丝让我看下，ZEC进入了良性的价格上涨轨道当中，大户和散户在疯狂做空，庄家逼空拉盘，目前看会一直吃流动性到1441，当前价格1354
奉劝一句，当前谨慎做空，庄家手中的筹码太多了，等剿灭完空头，空头杀无可杀就杀多，到时也会很惨烈，多头的流动性是空头的10倍还多吧$BTC is sitting in a zone where patience matters. 👀
Around $75K–$76K, Bitcoin needs to prove whether this is consolidation or the start of deeper weakness.
$75K remains the level I’m watching closely.
A reclaim of $77.5K could improve momentum, while losing support would change the short-term structure.
Let price confirm.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 Why does $CORE surge wildly right before delisting?
Step 1: Pumping the price to trigger short squeezes, creating "hidden buy orders"
When an exchange announces delisting, many retail traders' first reaction is to short. These short positions accumulate above a certain price, forming "liquidation orders." The market maker uses a small amount of capital to push the price up, breaking through the short liquidation line, forcing all shorts to buy back at market price to cover, instantly generating millions or even tens of millions in strong buy orders.
Step 2: Within the buy orders from short liquidations, the market maker simultaneously "closes long positions" and "opens shorts"
The buy orders generated by short liquidations are the best counterparties for the market maker to sell. The market maker places sell orders at the peak to lock in profits from long positions while simultaneously establishing new short positions.
Step 3: Dumping the price to realize profits from shorts
After building short positions at the high, a flood of sell orders causes the price to plummet rapidly. Retail traders who chased the highs get liquidated, and the market maker's shorts realize huge profits during the crash.
In short: The pump before delisting is a "fake buy order" created by the market maker exploiting short liquidations, aiming to profit from both longs and shorts before liquidity completely disappears. Those who chase the surge are often the last to hold the bag Recently, Ethereum has been oscillating between $2400 and $2500, with the price stuck quite tightly.
In mid-September, because the US "Clear Act" failed to pass the Senate procedural vote, it caused a sharp drop, briefly falling below $2400, with nearly 120,000 liquidations. But it didn’t stay down for long and gradually climbed back near $2440, indicating there is buying support at the $2400 level.
There is an on-chain signal worth noting: the ETH supply on exchanges has dropped to around 6.06 million, down more than 70% from the 2020 peak. About 35% of ETH is locked in staking and cannot be moved, so the circulating supply has indeed thinned. Large holders are also active; a whale swapped over $65 million worth of wrapped Bitcoin for ETH, and Abraxas Capital bought more than $34 million. But at the same time, Binance received over 700,000 ETH in a single day, the largest daily inflow since June, showing selling pressure and buying demand are hedging each other.
Technically, the $2431 to $2435 range is near the 20-day moving average and serves as the boundary between bulls and bears. If it breaks above, there’s a chance to test $2544 or even $2626. If it falls below $2380, the next support zone is around the $2280 to $2270 moving averages.
On the news front, there is a long-term variable: the Glamsterdam upgrade is tentatively scheduled for October 6 on the Sepolia testnet, which will raise the block gas limit from 60 million to 200 million, but the mainnet timing is not yet decided.
In short, the bearish pressure hit but didn’t break through, the bullish factors exist but haven’t materialized yet, so the price is stuck in the middle.#ZEC hits a new all-time high, NU7 upgrade expectations draw attention
The leader has something to say
ZEC has hit a new all-time high again, reaching a peak of 1491. The NU7 governance vote passed with 99.9% supporting the block time reduction from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, 98.9% supporting maintaining Bitcoin-style halving, and 96.6% supporting postponing the NSM-collected ZEC issuance to 2031. Paradigm disclosed holding ZEC, and mining company Fortitude is advancing its Nasdaq listing.
Three signals combined: technical upgrade, institutional entry, and mining company IPO; the narrative remains intact. But at the 1400 price level, volatility is high, and the cost-effectiveness of chasing the price up is decreasing.
I took profits on my ZEC short positions long ago and am currently out of the market. This wave from over 800 to 1400 missed the latter half, but I didn’t lose. Don’t chase sharp rises; wait for a pullback to reassess positions. If the NU7 upgrade is implemented and the positive effects materialize, and the price stabilizes around 1200 on a pullback, then consider buying. Don’t catch a falling knife on sharp drops; wait for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The Fed’s rate hike is in place, and the dot plot shows more hikes before year-end, possibly restarting the tightening cycle. Risk assets are under pressure overall; both Bitcoin and ZEC are in high volatility zones, so manage your positions well and don’t get carried away.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.The share swap between Upbit and NAVER Pay is currently stuck due to two conflicting sets of rules.
The Fair Trade Act requires a holding company to own no less than 30% of a listed subsidiary and no less than 50% of a non-listed one. However, the second phase of virtual asset legislation is discussing setting ownership limits for major shareholders of exchanges.
On one hand, you are required to hold more; on the other, you are required to hold less. NAVER Pay is not yet a holding company, but once it becomes one and places the exchange into a subsidiary, these two standards will apply simultaneously to the same equity.
So this is not about the deal being blocked, but the governance structure needs to be changed first.
I tend to believe this matter will ultimately be resolved by adjusting the share swap ratio or hierarchy, rather than a direct confrontation.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 $NAVER This market is really strange.
Now it suddenly feels peaceful, like the bull market has just arrived out of nowhere!
The whole internet is now saying that the interest rate hike is as expected, and it's a positive.
So the entire crypto space is rising.
Mainstream coins are up, altcoins are also up.
Especially $ZEC, leading the way, carrying the banner alone, lifting the whole crypto market.
This cheerful market feels so strange to me.
Today it surged wildly from 1127 to a high of 1507.
The entire market is celebrating, as if the interest rate hike landing has really become a huge positive.
Short-term sentiment definitely needs to be vented, I can understand that.
But precisely because the whole market is so optimistic, I feel that this is the biggest problem.
It’s like everyone suddenly forgot about the next interest rate hike and is crazily speculating on this one being a positive because it was expected.
The next interest rate hike is at the end of October, only 30 days away from now.
30 days, not too long, not too short.
But I always feel this rally might not be as solid as it looks on the surface; the chance of it being a bluff is quite high.
The manipulators are now using the "as expected" excuse to hype sentiment to the highest point. Once they've sold off enough, who will care about when the next rate hike is?
When October approaches and rate hike expectations come back to the forefront, the market might show a different face again#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 Long and Short Crowding List
$ONE negative fee rate is at a historical sample low, with shorts bearing the settlement cost: current rate -0.5871%, at the 3rd percentile among the most recent 100 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 14 times is -5.762%; price increased by 1.79%, position value changed by -0.79%. Price rise coexists with shorts paying fees, shorts face both rising prices and funding cost.
$ZEC negative fee rate is at a historical sample low, with shorts bearing the settlement cost: current rate -0.0436%, at the 0th percentile among the most recent 100 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 3 times is -0.102%; price dropped by 0.23%, position value changed by +0.29%.
$NEAR positive fee rate is at a historical sample high, longs bear relatively high settlement cost: current rate +0.0100%, at the 100th percentile among the most recent 100 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 3 times is +0.030%; price increased by 1.21%, position value changed by +1.11%. At the current fee rate settlement, funding fees are paid by longs to shorts, and the current rate is higher than most historical single settlement samples.
ONE, ZEC: At the current fee rate settlement, funding fees are paid by shorts to longs, with the negative fee rate magnitude at an extreme side of historical samples. An asset called $SPCX can have an independent trend when the entire market is falling, and this fact itself is a signal.
The material does not include its circulating supply or position distribution, so currently we can only confirm the price behavior diverges from the overall market. A more likely explanation is concentrated chips, where a small amount of capital can drive the price, rather than any independent fundamentals.
Under this structure, those chasing the price are bearing not directional risk, but liquidity risk. The cost of watching the spectacle is usually paid by the last batch of entrants.
The observation point is on the coordination of trading volume and open interest: if the price continues to rise but trading volume shrinks, it indicates the pushing cost is decreasing, and the independent trend is more likely artificial. Once volume expands but the price stagnates, this judgment is overturned.
#OKX百万规划师
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $SPCX South Korea is stuck again.
Upbit's parent company Dunamu is swapping shares with NAVER Pay, which was originally a pretty normal matter, but now the legislative investigation office has jumped in saying: there might be two conflicting shareholding standards.
One is the "Fair Trade Act," which requires a holding company to own at least 30% of a listed subsidiary and at least 50% of a non-listed one. The other is the second phase of virtual asset legislation, which sets a shareholding cap for major shareholders of exchanges.
One requires you to hold more, the other requires you to hold less. I know the feeling of being caught in the middle.
I’ve encountered this before when working on projects—two departments each issue a document, neither can be ignored, and in the end, you can only restructure and delay.
My guess: this deal won’t move forward in the short term, it’s not a money issue, it’s a rules misalignment.
No direct impact on the market, but everyone knows Upbit’s scale in Korea; whenever there’s a stir there, local sentiment tends to sway a bit.
To be honest, this kind of news seems far from the coin price, but it’s actually what truly determines whether money can flow smoothly in and out.
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 $NAVER 1️⃣ RATE HIKE ≠ MARKET OVER
Everyone expected a crash after the rate hike.
Instead, BTC is still fighting for the key range.
That tells me one thing:
The market isn’t as weak as the bears want you to believe.
Watch $77K–$78K closely.
One clean breakout and the whole sentiment can flip fast.
#CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve
#OutcomesOnOrbit
2️⃣ BTC IS AT A DECISION POINT
$77K is becoming the battlefield.
Hold it → bulls can push toward $78.8K+
Lose it → $74K–$75K becomes the area to watch. $BTC 目前徘徊在约75,600美元附近，$ETH 则在2,395美元左右震荡。📉 过去一天市场表现相对平静，但美联储25个基点的加息，正式将利率区间推升至3.75%–4.00%，同时释放出年内仍可能继续收紧政策的信号，风险资产面临新的压力。 值得注意的是，尽管加息落地，BTC和ETH并未出现预期中的剧烈下跌，说明部分市场参与者此前已经提前消化了这一利空。 当然，我之前的判断并没有按照预期发展，所以现在不会为了证明自己而强行交易。 我的$BTC多单依然持有，$ETH多单也还没有平仓。但接下来我更关注价格能否守住关键支撑，以及市场在美联储消息消化后的真实方向。 另外，美国众议院金融服务委员会推进比特币战略储备相关法案，为加密市场带来了一定的政策层面关注，但距离真正落地仍有进一步程序。 当前阶段，比起急着做出下一步决定，耐心等待确认可能更加重要。 计划第一，情绪第二。 $BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoMarket #BitcoinEarly morning focus on the king coin one: Bitcoin is aiming for 7800, can the other four keep up?
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
$BTC at 76400, last night CLARITY was rejected and dropped to 74910, once the reserve bill advanced it immediately V-shaped back, bulls and bears both hit hard overnight. Technically, if 76000 holds, it will test 7800, which is a dense area of previous trapped positions; breaking through means a real strength shift, failing to hold means a pullback to 75500. It is the anchor; if its direction is right, other coins will follow.
$OKB around 113, when Bitcoin fluctuates, funds tend to hide in platform coins; 21 million locked supply benchmarked against Bitcoin, X Layer upgrade as the sole Gas, previous high at 142 still has 20% room. It has the smallest pullback this round.
$WLD around 0.40, Altman iris AI coin, fell 20% from 0.50 and is stabilizing, 0.37 is the critical point. When risk appetite warms up, it has the greatest elasticity; once AI regulation news comes out, it moves first, an offensive spear, but if 0.37 breaks, don't get attached to the fight.
$RE near 0.45, DeFi insurance small RWA, 71 million market cap, daily volume only 5 million, the smallest liquidity. It weakly correlates with the market; if it should fall but doesn't, that's a strong signal itself. When the wind blows, small caps can rise fast, but poor liquidity means avoid heavy positions.
$BICO at 0.018, account abstraction and wallet simplification are real needs, the sector is good but has lacked funding support; when the market rises it follows a bit, when it falls it falls more. Don't force trades at this position. The bill failed, the rate hike came, but the crypto market didn’t crash?
This week, the crypto world felt like it was kicked down the stairs, only to find a trampoline at the bottom.
The U.S. Senate voted 50:49 to reject the Clear Act, with Trump's crypto interest provisions stirring trouble. Bitcoin briefly dropped below 76,000, with 120,000 liquidations totaling $670 million. But the negative news was already priced in, and after the drop, it bounced back to 76,300.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points for the first time in 38 months. The market had priced in 90% of this, so the actual announcement didn’t cause panic; risk assets actually breathed a sigh of relief.
The privacy sector went wild: the ZEC community voted 98.9% to keep the halving, Grayscale’s ETF attracted funds, with a single-day gain of 14% and a yearly gain of 2500%. Institutions are re-pricing the privacy narrative. The Japanese yen stablecoin JPYC paused Ethereum issuance reservations, adding another bottleneck for ETH.
Traditional finance is quietly going on-chain: $39 billion in RWA on-chain, Canada recognizes tokenized deposits, India launched a 620 billion bond tokenization pilot, and stablecoin monthly transfers rose 49%. The higher the wall, the faster the climb over it.
This week’s bloodbath was in leverage, not the trend. Don’t short lightly, or you might get carried away
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ $ZEC current price 1464.81, 24h +15.13%, trading volume 817.4M USDT, MA5=1420.15 crossing above MA20=1371.36, MACD histogram +4.919 maintaining bullish momentum, RSI=71.0. Looking horizontally within the same sector, $ETH only +2.92% in the same period, 30 candlesticks amplitude 4.64%, $LSK even -36.90%, amplitude 92.28%, all with bearish moving average alignment. $ZEC has run with nearly 20% amplitude showing the strongest relative strength in the sector, and the funding rate is -0.0392%, shorts are still paying, indicating this rally is not driven by crowded leveraged longs but a spot-dominant short squeeze structure, which is the core reason it deserves separate tracking.
However, the price has touched the upper Bollinger Band at 1456.67 and slightly exceeded it, RSI 71 entering overbought territory, the fear and greed index at 50 remains neutral, sentiment is not extreme, meaning there is still inertia space above, but chasing highs increases risk. Operationally, do not chase highs; wait for a pullback near MA5 to confirm support.
The directional bias is bullish. Entry reference range 1420–1440 (MA5 support + breakout pullback confirmation); Take profit 1 at 1500 (round number + extension of upper Bollinger Band); Take profit 2 at 1560 (extension of previous high, target before MACD histogram shrinks); Stop loss at 1385 (break below MA5 and losing the structure above MA20, invalidating the bullish logic).🚨 THE FED SHIFTED THE MOOD — BUT I’M NOT CHASING
$BTC is hovering around $75.6K, while $ETH is near $2.4K this morning. 📉
Yesterday was relatively quiet, but the Fed’s rate decision and hawkish tone changed the market backdrop.
My earlier prediction didn’t play out, and I’m not going to force a trade just to be right. I’m watching the early session closely before making my next move.
My $BTC long remains open, and I’m still holding my $ETH long as well.
For now, patience > FOMO. 🧘♂️📊 Getting ready to sleep! I came across the news that Tether dumped 1.5 billion to buy gold, and I was stunned for a while.
This is the stablecoin giant, the whole crypto market's liquidity pump, and now it's hoarding gold itself. To put it bluntly, even the biggest market maker inside the exchange is keeping a backup plan and hedging against fiat currency depreciation risk. Is this bullish or bearish? Thinking deeply, it's terrifying.
Looking back at my own positions, it feels even worse: $CAP short is still up 17%, CNPY slightly down 3%, $FLOCK directly stuck with nearly 120% loss. All three positions are shorts, going against the entire market.
The market is indeed strange. The CLARITY Act failed the Senate vote, which should have been bearish and crushed the market, right? But it didn’t fall at all; it kept rising as usual. Previously, the rise was said to be driven by regulatory optimism, but now that the regulatory benefit is stuck, it still rises, indicating this rally is not supported by regulatory expectations but pushed hard by other funds behind the scenes.
The technical side is awkward too. $BTC is grinding back and forth around 76,000, with a pile of long leverage orders stacked below 75,000 and a bunch of short orders pressing down at 82,000. My small retail short positions are neither in the main long liquidation zone nor in the main battlefield of shorts, just getting rubbed back and forth in the middle.
Tether is already hugging the gold leg, and here I am stubbornly holding short positions in these three small coins. It’s almost ironic to say out loud. I don’t know if I’m just too stubborn or if the market is really about to turn bullish.Many people equate "big gains" directly with "strength," so they chase the top gainer of the day, only to buy at the emotional peak. Relative strength is not about who rises the most, but who maintains a cleaner structure and more controllable retracement under the same conditions.
$ETH current price 2468.57, 24h +3.12%, trading volume 848 million, is the most liquid and least volatile among the three candidates. The moving averages MA5=2464.57 crossed above MA20=2438.93, forming an initial bullish alignment; MACD histogram +3.571 maintains bullishness, RSI 68.7 is slightly hot but below the 70 overbought line, indicating there is still room to move up rather than being exhausted. The upper Bollinger Band at 2478.55 is just overhead, with price running along the upper band, a typical strong consolidation. Funding rate is only +0.0071%, leverage sentiment is moderate, with no risk of overheating or liquidation; the Fear & Greed Index at 50 is neutral, the market has not entered greed territory, which provides a safety margin for trend-following longs. The 30 candlesticks have an amplitude of 4.64%, the lowest among the three, with good retracement tolerance, making it suitable as a relatively strong sector leader.
In comparison, $MSTRB rose 4.26% but with a trading volume of only 16.5 million and an amplitude of 7.41%, leaning speculative; $HEI fell 11.98%, MA5 has crossed below MA20, MACD turned bearish, clearly weaker than ETH.There was a piece of news today that many people missed: the DOGE-1 satellite has entered orbit. A cryptocurrency-funded lunar probe is flying in space; if this had been said ten years ago, it would have been taken as a joke.
Dogecoin started as a joke. In 2013, two strangers online—one came up with the idea, the other wrote the code—put together this blockchain in a few hours to mock the then rampant altcoins. The joke ended with no one laughing: today, it has a market cap of over $12 billion, ranks 12th among global crypto assets, its name is printed on a satellite, flying toward the moon.
Why do I hold a long position in $DOGE? Not because it’s perfect. It has inflation, high volatility, and its price is largely supported by community enthusiasm and a few tweets from Elon Musk—I acknowledge all that. Going long is not about ignoring these facts but about calculating another set of numbers.
What I value: a community that has lasted twelve years, evolving from tipping culture to funding a satellite; the widest retail recognition—among three coins an outsider can name, it’s usually one of them; real usage habits, and a payment mainline that keeps moving forward. Laws may block progress, ETFs may liquidate, prices may fall, but the satellite still goes to space. These things aren’t flashy, but stacked together, they form a foundation others can’t copy.
Most days holding look like today: the market is dull, positive news is muted, prices don’t move when news breaks. At times like this, it’s not about technicals, but whether you believe in the logic you wrote down and are willing to give it time.
The satellite is already in space. People on the ground, keep working, keep holding. Good night.Honestly, when I look at $CORE , I don't see quiet strength — I see exhaustion. It's already down 99.7% from its 2023 high, and it dropped another 11% in a week while the rest of the market barely flinched. No dramatic crash I can point to, just a slow bleed made worse by the validator exploit that forced an emergency fork and froze withdrawals. Ongoing monthly unlocks on top of that? I'm not reading this as conviction anymore.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 The boot has dropped! The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023. But strangely, BTC surged 1.10%, and ETH skyrocketed 3.15%—even though a rate hike is clearly negative news, the market went crazy bullish.
Why? Because this is a case of "bad news fully priced in." The market had already fully priced in the rate hike expectations, so the actual implementation turned out to be positive. More importantly, the Fed's statement hinted this might be the last rate hike in this cycle, signaling the tightening phase is nearing its end. The tightest liquidity period may be over, and risk assets can finally catch a breather.
But don’t celebrate too soon. Rates remain high at 4%, funding costs are still expensive, and corporate profits and consumer credit pressures won’t disappear immediately. For the crypto space, the short-term rebound is an emotional recovery; the long-term reversal depends on whether rate cut expectations can truly materialize.
This rate hike could be the last tail of the bear market or the starting gun of a bull market. Which do you believe? $ETH $XRP current price 1.3045, 24h +2.92%, trading volume 234.9M USDT. MA5=1.3044 just crossed above MA20=1.2999, RSI=52.6 neutral, MACD histogram +0.001632 turned bullish, funding rate -0.0000%, Fear and Greed Index 50 neutral. The data indicates: the trend is in a "weak bullish recovery" phase, not an acceleration phase.
Here, using $XRP to illustrate a reusable market analysis method: use moving average alignment to assess trend health. A healthy bullish trend is not about the price being farther from the moving averages, but that after MA5 crosses above MA20, both move upward synchronously, and the price retraces without breaking below MA20. Currently, the difference between MA5 and MA20 is only 0.0045, classified as a "just golden cross, not diverged" structure, which usually corresponds to two scenarios: one is a volume-driven rally causing the moving averages to widen, the other is sideways consolidation until the moving averages converge again before choosing a new direction. Combined with Bollinger Bands [1.29039, 1.30941] narrowing, bandwidth about 1.5%, indicating compressed volatility and an imminent breakout. At this time, it is not advisable to chase the high; wait for a retracement near MA20 to confirm support before entering, which has a higher probability of success. What the heck is this? Is the Bank of Japan's rate decision causing a rapid drop? A 10% drop would be perfect.
Currently, ZEC is an independent main trend (leader in the privacy sector), but it has surged significantly in the short term with high leverage accumulation; the biggest variable ahead is today's Bank of Japan rate decision. In the medium to long term, it's about ETF funds + NU7 upgrade + EU regulatory battles.
Short term (1~3 days, core focus on today's Bank of Japan)
ZEC's volatility is much greater than BTC/ETH, belonging to a high-beta sector leader, and will be directly affected by yen carry trade:
1. Scenario 1: Ueda Kazuo is hawkish (highest risk)
Indicates continued rate hikes within the year, USDJPY drops rapidly, yen strengthens, carry trade funds close positions.
→ Privacy sector collectively under pressure, ZEC will quickly pull back, the retracement will be deeper than BTC and ETH, with many long leverage liquidations.
2. Scenario 2: Neutral to hawkish (most likely baseline)
Rate hike implemented but no commitment to continuous hikes, maintaining "data-dependent" rhetoric.
→ USDJPY fluctuates slightly, market oscillates, ZEC mainly oscillates at high levels, likely profit-taking and high-level consolidation, no direct crash.
3. Scenario 3: Dovish (low probability)
Signals rate hikes near the end, yen weakens, carry trade funds remain in risk assets.
→ ZEC has a chance to continue rising, challenge previous highs, and privacy coin sentiment continues to ferment.The SEC has just issued a temporary, conditional "innovation exemption": The SEC allows qualified "Tokenized Securities Venues" (TSV) to use permissioned automated market makers (AMMs) and liquidity pools to trade tokenized NMS stocks (i.e., tokenized stocks listed in the U.S. national market system) on-chain, and under certain conditions, these venues are temporarily not required to be classified as "exchanges" under the Securities Exchange Act; participants providing proprietary liquidity to the pools are also temporarily not required to be classified as "dealers."
The exemption period is about 5 years, with public comments solicited to pave the way for subsequent formal rules or legislation.
SEC Chair Atkins' goal is clear: since Congress failed to advance the CLARITY Act this week, the SEC is taking this step within its statutory authority to "bring the U.S. capital markets into the digital age." He also called this a bridge toward more durable rulemaking. Let's discuss in detail what this policy allows and does not allow.
1. Core permissions:
1) Tokenize listed U.S. stocks on-chain and match trades in permissioned AMM/liquidity pools.
2) TSVs bring buyers and sellers together by providing AMM liquidity pools and setting who can trade.
3) Tokens must grant holders rights equivalent to traditional stocks, including dividends, voting, etc., and cannot be mere synthetic exposures that only track price movements.
4) Tokens can be minted by the issuer (or its representative) or by unrelated third parties; if minted by third parties, TSVs must notify the issuer in writing and provide an opportunity to object. Reports indicate a window of about 30 days; if the issuer vetoes, the token cannot be traded on that venue.
Key restrictions (very important):
1) Not synthetic stocks or tokens that only track prices. The SEC emphasizes "No Synthetics." This is a cold shower for many "U.S. stock tokens/synthetic stock" products in the crypto market, not a green light.
2) Not permissionless, open-to-all DeFi. Participants must be permissioned, TSVs must be U.S. entities, and comply with OFAC sanctions.
3) Smart contracts must be auditable, public, and deployed on a public, permissionless distributed ledger; trades must be publicly disclosed; when the underlying stock is suspended on the primary exchange, the token must also suspend trading.
4) There are limits on the number of underlying shares and trading volume, with controls such as tiered price limits; this is a pilot, not a full replacement for NYSE/NASDAQ.
5) Expires after 5 years unless rules are amended, extended, or legislation follows.
Impact and significance for the industry:
1) A milestone for "real tokenized U.S. stocks," not for "synthetic U.S. stock tokens." Truly 1:1 stock tokens with shareholder rights now have a relatively clear, operable U.S. regulatory pathway: no immediate national securities exchange registration required, and AMM can be used for secondary trading. This is a substantial benefit for compliance-focused tokenization companies like Securitize and brokers/infrastructure providers aiming to put U.S. stocks on-chain.
2) Traditional exchanges, brokers, and transfer agents will feel pressure and be forced to transform. If on-chain settlement, T+0/near-instant delivery, and programmable corporate actions can truly operate, some functions of existing central counterparties, clearinghouses, and transfer agents will be diverted. Also, issuers have veto rights, meaning companies like Apple and Nvidia can refuse third parties from unauthorized "on-chain trading" of their stocks. This will shift the market from "anyone can issue U.S. stock tokens" to an "issuer consent + compliant venue" model.
3) For public blockchains and DeFi, this is a "conditional quasi-entry," not full DeFi-ization of Wall Street. Contracts must run on public permissionless chains, offering potential settlement layer opportunities for Ethereum, Solana, etc.; but trading itself is permissioned, with KYC/sanctions screening and volume limits.
4) At the market structure level, this is a "pilot first, then legislate/rule" regulatory sandbox. The SEC itself says this is an interim step toward formal rules or congressional legislation. It will accumulate real on-chain stock trading data (price, volume, time, pool addresses, end-of-day pool size, etc.) to assess whether AMMs impact best bids, cause manipulation, or drain liquidity from lit markets.
So, the short-term symbolic significance outweighs immediate volume expansion.
This exemption can be seen as three things combined:
1) A political substitute: since the CLARITY Act failed, the SEC uses Section 36 exemption under the Exchange Act to take a first step.
2) A regulatory experiment: using limited underlying assets, limited scale, and public data to observe whether tokenized stocks can operate without destroying existing market integrity.
3) An industry filter: rewarding "true equity tokens + permissioned venues + compliant market making," while sidelining "non-rights synthetic tokens + permissionless global trading (remaining a gray area, also unenforceable)."
For the first time, U.S. regulators acknowledge that on-chain AMMs can be a legitimate experimental venue for secondary trading of listed stocks.🚨 Oil just dropped 3%+… and the market may have front-run the repair news.
Why did crude suddenly crash? Pharaoh’s take is simple: the market heard that Saudi Arabia’s damaged East-West oil pipeline could be urgently repaired, and traders started pricing in the return of supply before the repairs were even complete.
Saudi Aramco is reportedly bypassing the damaged section and working to restore around half of the pipeline’s capacity within a few days — roughly 2 to 2.5
#DailyOrbit This round of ZEC rally is essentially a triple narrative resonance of technical fixes, regulatory relaxation, and institutional entry. Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang publicly confirmed his holding of ZEC, adding another layer of institutional endorsement. On the technical side: Ironwood's upgrade completes the reconstruction of the trust model. Ironwood (NU6.3), activated on July 28, permanently closed the Orchard shielding pool with reliability vulnerabilities. Old funds must flow out through a "turnstile" to allow any node to independently verify the supply cap, while introducing "quantum-recoverable" notes to leave a future hold. Community voting supported 99.9% of the block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while 98.9% supported retaining Bitcoin-style halving arrangements. The SEC ended its investigation into the Zcash Foundation in January 2026, without recommending any enforcement action, directly clearing the core uncertainty of institutional participation. Grayscale immediately submitted an application for a ZCSH spot ETF, accumulating nearly $700 million in assets in less than two weeks after listing. The risk warning is equally clear. Industry figures like Wang Chun publicly questioned the speculative nature of the rally, saying blocking transaction throughput remains a long-term bottleneck. Whether ZEC can turn the narrative into a sustainable payment network scale is the true touchstone of this market cycle $ZEC Shorted $ZEC at $822, held for five months, and eventually cut the loss.
Then I shorted again at $816… and $ZEC just kept climbing.
The lesson is simple: don’t blindly short strength just because you’re expecting a pullback.
Even with rate-hike expectations running high, the market refused to break down.
This time, I’m done guessing.
Just watching the $816 level closely and letting price action speak.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve Version 2｜Short-term Trading Style
U.S. crypto policy has seen an unexpected "divergent market."
The CLARITY Act is stalled in the Senate, but the House of Representatives has not stopped moving forward.
Latest news shows two important bills advancing through committees:
🔹 "Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act": improving crypto asset tax and reporting rules.
🔹 "U.S. Reserve Modernization Act": promoting the institutionalization of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
This is a medium- to long-term policy positive for the entire crypto industry, indicating that the U.S. is still continuously building digital asset infrastructure.
But short-term interpretation should not be overdone.
The core variables BTC currently faces remain:
Liquidity pressure after the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields holding above 5%
Risk asset funds continuing to stay on the sidelines
So my understanding is:
Fundamental policies are improving, but market prices may not immediately follow.
First, let's see if BTC can regain key support before judging the subsequent direction.
$BTC
#CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 Less than a day after the CLARITY Act failed, the House of Representatives immediately took over
On September 16, the Fundraising Committee passed the "Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act" with 38 votes in favor and 5 against, establishing the first federal tax framework for digital assets
Key provision: Crypto transactions with network or transaction fees not exceeding $10 are exempt from taxation
On the same day, the Financial Services Committee advanced H.R. 8957, the "American Reserve Modernization Act," with a vote of 28 to 21
Its core requirement is for the Treasury Department to establish a $BTC strategic reserve within 180 days, with the included BTC not to be sold, exchanged, or pledged for 20 years
The bill does not authorize additional Bitcoin purchases; the reserve only comes from seized assets
Currently, the federal government holds about 198,000 BTC
Tax bill passed 38 to 5, with strong bipartisan support
Reserve bill passed 28 to 21
The House will recess until after the November elections, and the bills may advance during the lame-duck session
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 🟠 $BTC → $ETH → $SOL
$BTC holding steady keeps liquidity stable.
If $ETH/BTC turns higher, rotation may be starting.
If $SOL/ETH follows, risk appetite could be expanding further.
Watch the ratios, not just the price. 👀 CL (WTI Crude Oil): 105 dollars is not the oil price, it's the "war insurance premium" invoice.
On September 18, the WTI front-month CL was welding between 104.6–105.4 USD/barrel, while Brent nudged above 108. The Fed just hiked 25bp, with the dot plot hinting "one more hike this year," the dollar and US Treasuries are biting, but oil isn't falling—because the current pricing isn't about "how strong demand is," but whether the supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz + Red Sea + Saudi east-west pipeline have been extinguished.
This thing and BTC/SOL are completely different physics:
- Crypto looks at funding rates, ETF outflows, on-chain revenue;
- CL looks at EIA inventories, OPEC+ quotas, missile impact points, VLCC freight rates. The model's pivot is 104.43, with an upside of 117.89 and downside of 92.97, meaning very straightforwardly: 105 is not value, it's a bet. The fair value is roughly 86–91, the extra 14–19 dollars is the market's option premium for "Middle East shutting valves in the middle of the night."
Three lines to remember:
102.0 / 103.0 is the pullback support—if it holds after the FOMC, it means shorts dare not naked short in the war premium;
105.0 is the switch—only if it holds can we talk about 108.5 and then aim for the previous high zone at 112.95;
100.0 is face value—if the daily close breaks below, the geopolitical premium starts to fade, targeting 96.8 / 90.9, at which point "rate hikes kill demand".I opened a short position at 1538, now with a floating loss of 75 points. The hardest part isn't the loss, but knowing you should cut losses, yet still being reluctant to part with those 75 points. Close the position, unwilling to accept it. Keep holding on, but afraid tonight will break through 1700 without even giving a chance to react. This is the most tormenting part of trading. It's not just about misdirection, but when losses occur, you start being held hostage by your own costs. ONE follows the same storyline. It used to be a public blockchain, then suddenly transitioned to AI video technology. Even more absurd, a recent hacking incident caused a large number of tokens to be abnormally minted, and the team chose to roll back the product, causing market sentiment to hit rock bottom. But today, it surged 65%, from 0.0006 to 0.0012. I didn't even see the taillight. LAB is even worse. In 15 minutes, it dropped from 0.056 to 0.051, and the candlestick moved like a joke. These highly concentrated small tokens have a few addresses controlling large supply; once funds flow in and out, retail investors have little room to react. All coins on the screen are rising. Only my position is still at a loss. The most ironic thing is that the market is constantly hyping SanDisk's AI storage logic: explosive data center business, rapid revenue growth, and declining industry cyclicality—each reason sounds more convincing than the last. But the question is— what do these positive factors have to do with my 1538 short position? The market won't come down to uneven just because I shorted. Nor will it stop just because I lost 75 pointsThe 148% move looks impressive, but context matters more than the headline.
➤ Huge drawdown from ATH
➤ Recent unauthorized mint added major supply concerns
➤ No clear catalyst behind the latest pump
A sharp rebound doesn’t automatically mean the underlying risk has disappeared.XAUT: The only one that doesn't flinch on the rate hike night — because it was never meant for speculation.
On September 18, Tether Gold (XAUT) was reported around $4340–4360 per ounce, hitting new highs alongside spot gold. BTC hovered at 76,000, SOL fought at $100, ZEC squeezed at $1400, DOGE trembled at $0.08 — XAUT said nothing, just steadily stuck to the anchor of "one ounce of gold = one token."
This thing's romance is very old-fashioned:
1 XAUT = 1 troy ounce LBMA deliverable gold bar, custodial held by Tether in Switzerland, serial number verifiable, Redemption through qualified investor channels. The Fed raised rates by 25bp, the dot plot hints "one more time this year," US stocks and bonds shook, but gold hit new highs — because the market was listening to Powell's speech while pricing "dollar credit erosion" into gold. XAUT is not high beta; it is the embodiment of macro anxiety.
But don't treat it like a knockoff:
- 4250 is the pullback zone after the rate hike decision; failure to hold means gold prices are gasping within profit-taking;
- 4340–4360 is the current anchor price; XAUT's "rise and fall" is not driven by the project team but jointly priced by COMEX + LBMA + central bank gold purchases;
- 4400 / 4500 are not resistance levels but the next steps in the gold standard narrative of "de-dollarization." The Fed's hawkish rate hike lands, BTC doesn't crash, but ZEC goes crazy?
OKX data shows $BTC BTC currently around $76,000, briefly dropped to about $75,000 last night, then quickly V-shaped recovered. $ZEC ZEC is even more extreme, hitting an intraday high of $1,492, a new all-time high.
On one side, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, and 16 of 18 officials still expect at least one more hike this year; on the other side, BTC didn't continue to break down, while ZEC squeezed short positions all the way up.
This ZEC move isn't just sentiment.
In the past day, OKX trading volume exceeded $2.7 billion, and yesterday a giant whale withdrew about 15,300 ZEC combined from Binance, OKX, and Kraken.
More notably, the SEC today introduced a 5-year exemption for tokenized stock trading, pushing traditional stocks further onto the blockchain. The RWA (Real World Assets) sector might heat up again.
Tonight, I'm only watching three levels:
BTC: $75,000, must not break down effectively.
ZEC: $1,492, new high resistance, only a breakout with volume will open more space.
ZEC: $1,400, a recently broken important psychological level; if it falls back, beware of a false breakout.
The most interesting thing now isn't guessing bull or bear.
It's why BTC can still hold up despite so many bearish factors.
If funds continue to flow back tonight, the real danger might not be the bulls, but those still stubbornly shorting.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $BTC perpetual 100x short position, opened at 78188.9, 76686.4, floating profit +192.16%. Before opening the position, I looked at the smaller timeframes; the price made a new high but the MACD red bars shortened, showing a clear bearish divergence.
I lightly tried shorting at 78188.9 with a stop loss at 79000. After the divergence, the bears counterattacked fiercely. Using extreme 100x leverage with only 1% position size.
Now moving the stop loss to lock in profits. Bearish divergence is a reversal signal, don’t blindly chase longs. $ZEC $ONE #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $ARB ARB has been hammered hard this round, repeatedly spiking around 0.17, the candlesticks look more like accumulation than distribution. The dog whales are aggressively dumping money, likely targeting low-position floating chips, but volume hasn't expanded accordingly, and the panic sellers have already fled first. I lightly tried a position at 0.1727; if it breaks the previous low, I'll admit I'm wrong and exit, not gambling with the whales. The biggest fear at this position is a fake rebound; the 0.16 support level is what to watch next, if it doesn't hold, the script changes. What do you think, is this a setup or a bull trap?
👇👇👇ONE (Harmony): Not an “L1 resurrection,” but a “dying transformation show” around $0.0013.
On the interest rate hike night, others were talking about BTC at 76,000, SOL at 101, ZEC at 1400, while ONE was still hovering near $0.0013 — with a market cap of $19 million, down 99.6% from its 2021 peak of 0.38, like a forgotten old L1 suddenly awakened by the script of “mainnet shutdown.”
The story is more exciting than the price:
In August, a cross-shard vulnerability minted tens of billions of ONE, shattering trust; on September 10, validators began shutting down nodes, and the team planned to migrate ONE to Ethereum and then pivot to an “AI video Remix” narrative.
In plain language: the original chain gave up, the coin became an ERC-20 token with zero utility, leaving only the “migration snapshot + new pie-in-the-sky” option.
So ONE now is neither a sports car like SOL nor a heartbeat like DOGE, but a lottery ticket found in the ruins:
- 0.00118–0.00120 is the August low zone; if it doesn’t hold, it will drop to 0.0006;
- 0.00133–0.00145 is the rebound weld zone; it pumps when macro conditions improve and crashes when the narrative fails;
- 0.0017 / 0.0023 are the old chip break-even lines; without migration landing or AI products, don’t believe it can truly recover. 📊 $BTC staying firm doesn't automatically mean the whole crypto market is participating. The bigger signal is whether capital starts rotating into other major assets. 🧠 $ETH/BTC → First checkpoint If the ratio starts building a sustained recovery, it suggests ETH is gaining ground relative to Bitcoin rather than simply following BTC higher. ⚡ $SOL/ETH → Second checkpoint Strength here would indicate traders are moving further along the risk curve toward higher-beta assets. 🔥 BTC stability → EToday BTC really showed one thing: strength is not about never falling, but about getting up faster than anyone expects after falling.
Fed raises rates, bill fails — two double blows hit at the same time, yet BTC only briefly touched the bottom at 75,300 USD then quickly recovered, closing around 76,600 USD. No panic, no sell-off, simply "the worst news has come, so it's time for peace to return
Today's market teaches us a lesson: when all the bad news is out and the price no longer falls.
--$BTC 🚨 Nordic Bitcoin Treasury Watch
H100 Group’s CEO has reportedly added around 407K shares at 1.53 SEK, lifting affiliated holdings to approximately 5.4M shares.
With nearly 3,506 $BTC on its balance sheet, H100 combines Bitcoin exposure with longevity technology. Management accumulation and BTC price action remain key mid-term factors.
Meanwhile, $ETH is watching macro liquidity and U.S. crypto legislation developments. 👀
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#BTC #ETH #H100 #CryptoToday's trading review:
After today's opening, $BTC first swept down for a while but did not enter the long zone I planned. Then it reclaimed the daily open. I entered a long position after the 5-minute candle reclaimed the daily open.
The price rebounded to the consolidation area POC, around 77,100, where it was resisted, then fell back to my cost zone before rising again. The market looks more like it is continuing to oscillate and accumulate strength within the range. I am still holding the long position entered near the daily open.
From the CVD perspective, spot buying remains quite active, possibly accumulating chips. The 4H candle closed with a solid bullish body. I still lean towards an upward distribution, with TP1 set at 78,000, planning to take half profit upon reaching it. Paradigm disclosed holding a new high of ZEC, and I smell a hint of selling? Brothers, ZEC hit a new all-time high again today, reaching $1388 at one point. It has risen 160% in a month and 25 times in a year; anyone seeing these numbers would be stunned. The NU7 upgrade vote just passed, with 99.9% agreeing to cut block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. Paradigm also publicly admitted holding ZEC, and the ETF size is about to hit $1 billion.
But let's look at the chart. Yesterday's candle showed a volume surge with a spike up, then a pullback close, and today it surged again. Anyone who's traded for years knows this pattern—when liquidity is at its best, someone is offloading.
The ETF is indeed accumulating, but ZEC has already surged 2590% in the past year; those who built positions at low levels have profits thick enough to crush an elephant. The NU7 vote passing is a bullish event realized, and Paradigm disclosing holdings is also a bullish event realized. After the good news is out, when retail investors FOMO in, who is selling?
I'm not saying ZEC will crash; the trend is still intact. But chasing highs and taking the bag can sometimes be just one candlestick apart. $ZEC $DASH DOGE: An ECG at 0.08 cents, Musk hasn't tweeted, it’s gasping on its own.
The most ironic scene on the rate hike night: The Fed pushes rates to 3.75%—4.00%, BTC returns to 76,000, SOL jumps back to 101, ZEC goes crazy to 1400, while DOGE still lies around 0.0807, up less than 1% in 24h, down 5%—10% over 7 days.
It doesn’t pretend to be "infrastructure," nor talk about "privacy return." DOGE is the retail investor’s ECG:
No income, no burn, no ETF backing with real money, 155 billion circulating, inflation supply never stops, price rises rely entirely on Twitter + rate cut expectations + dopamine from poor investors’ principal. The rate hike dot plot says "possibly one more hike this year," and the first to get hit is it—the most exposed in high beta.
But don’t underestimate 0.08:
0.0765 is the bulls’ grave line, where millions of dollars in long positions are liquidated; pushing below would hurt its own holders;
0.0807—0.0825 is the welded zone, 76.7% of accounts are long, but funding rates are near 0, meaning "everyone is bullish, but no one is willing to pay more";
0.0842 / 0.092 are switches, surpassing the former counts as recovery, standing back above the latter qualifies to talk about "meme season phase two." The people in the UK really know how to take action.
FCA, tax authorities, and police together raided three P2P crypto spots in London and directly posted shutdown orders. The operation was done on September 10, but the news is only being released now — the era of light regulation is really coming to an end.
If you still want to trade crypto face-to-face offline, you better think twice.Gold has gone completely crazy! Openly challenging the Fed's hawkish rate hike🔥
This wave of gold movement really breaks the norm, directly rubbing the Fed's hawkish policy into the ground!
Just landed a 25 basis point rate hike, and the dot plot is even more extremely hawkish. The market theory script should be: dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields soar, and interest-free asset gold is under deep pressure and plunges.
The result is completely abnormal! Gold ignores the negative pressure, violently rebounds, and shows an independent strong trend.
The core logic is too magical: nominal interest rates rise, but yields fall, driving real interest rates down, directly offsetting the biggest pressure of the rate hike on gold.
All rate hike negatives have long been fully priced in by the market, and the boot landing has completely turned into a sell-off of bad news. Traditional trading logic fails; gold is no longer held hostage by short-term monetary policy, resilience is maxed out, and the trend is completely beyond expectations! #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ ZEC: The wildest secret weapon on the rate hike night, above $1400, bears are crying, bulls are trembling.
On September 17, the Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%—4.00%. The market should have killed high beta, but ZEC reversed and surged over 20%, reaching 1360—1430, with market cap pushing into $23 billion, breaking into the top ten. Other coins are "bad news fully priced in," but this one is "bears being hanged by the noose"—futures OI hit $2.2 billion, funding rates are negative, bears keep adding positions, and when the price pulled up, $55 million liquidations included $49 million in shorts.
The fundamentals are not just air:
Grayscale ZCSH launched on 8/25, AUM surged to over $600 million in three weeks; NU7 voting involved 2.4 million ZEC, with 98.9% supporting halving, block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds; shielded transactions account for 28.8%, Ironwood patched old vulnerabilities, making the "privacy + compliance ETF" established simultaneously for the first time. But on-chain revenue and real payment volume still don't justify a $1400 market cap—this is a triple fire of narrative + ETF + short squeeze, not cash flow strength.
Three key levels re-marked:
1023—1050 is the lifeline; a return here means "consolidation";
1215—1259 is the pivot; failure to hold means high-level welding;