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BTC has not truly broken down under the squeeze of oil prices and U.S. Treasury bonds
Looking at $BTC today, the most interesting thing is not that it dropped to around $77,000, but that it hasn't been smashed through despite such a grim macro backdrop. The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate, risks related to the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices above $90, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the market is again worried about a rate hike in September. According to previous patterns, this combination usually causes risk assets to fall first. But $BTC only retreated from around $80,000 and has been trading back and forth near $77,000, indicating that there is selling pressure in the market, but there are indeed buyers at the lower levels.
Many panic at the pullback, wondering if failing to hold $80,000 means the rally is over. I, on the other hand, think today looks more like the first stress test after the main uptrend. $BTC rose nearly 25% in August, and at the start of September it faced pressure from oil prices, U.S. bonds, and geopolitical conflicts all at once, so short-term profit-taking is normal. The key is not whether it fell 1% or 2%, but whether it triggered panic selling. So far, it hasn't reached that point; it's more about high-level chips being redistributed.
The current trading logic for $BTC is clear: $76,000 to $77,000 is the first support zone, $75,000 is the short-term emotional bottom line, and $80,000 is the confirmation threshold for regaining strength. As long as $75,000 is not effectively broken, bulls have not lost control; if $75,000 is broken with volume, caution is needed as the trend continuing from August may enter a deep shakeout. Short-term pullbacks are not feared; what is feared is no rebound after the pullback.
Another detail in today's market is that the strengthening dollar should theoretically suppress $BTC, but it hasn't collapsed like typical high-beta assets. This is important because the market is viewing $BTC in two ways simultaneously: on one hand, it is still a risk asset suppressed by interest rates; on the other hand, it is a hedge asset that attracts buying amid fiscal, war, and debt pressures. These two forces clash, causing the price to oscillate repeatedly at key levels.
The Trump factor cannot be ignored either. U.S. crypto policy is now more friendly, and the market is willing to discuss $BTC within the framework of "clearer regulation and better institutional allocation." Macro pressures weigh down, policy provides support; this push-pull structure is one reason the price hasn't collapsed outright today.
What will truly determine the next phase are U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve expectations. If employment continues to weaken, the market will bet on looser policy, and $BTC could likely challenge $80,000 again; if employment is strong, oil prices remain high, and rate hike probabilities rise, then $75,000 will be repeatedly tested. This is not a matter of simply "bullish" or "bearish"—one must watch macro data and market support closely.
My approach is simple: don't chase the excitement near $80,000, and don't panic blindly near $77,000. If the price pulls back near $76,000 with shrinking volume and holds, that is a position to observe bulls reorganizing; if it rebounds to $79,000 but volume is insufficient, it means short-term selling pressure hasn't cleared. The truly comfortable signal is a rebound above $80,000 with a pullback that doesn't break support—then the market will change its suspicion of a "false breakout" to a "pre-new-high shakeout."
One more reminder: this $BTC cycle is different from previous retail-driven bull runs. With ETFs, corporate treasuries, and institutional allocations entering, the rise will be slower but the bottom will be firmer. The downside is that getting rich overnight is difficult; the upside is that its mainline status becomes more stable. Today, altcoins have fallen harder than $BTC, signaling that when risk comes, capital prioritizes protecting the mainline, not the story.
So the conclusion is straightforward: today $BTC is not strong enough to ignore macro factors, but strong enough not to be broken by them. As long as $75,000 holds, the market is still consolidating at a high level; reclaiming $80,000 means sentiment turns bullish again; breaking below $75,000 means reducing position size and pace. The market is not denying opportunities now; it is punishing those who react chaotically to volatility.
Looking more closely, if you create content today, don't just write "BTC resists decline," write "who is behind the buying that supports the resistance." Retail investors usually don't buy into bad news; the price holding steady mostly reflects capital with allocation logic. This distinction makes the article more actionable: not just urging others to chase, but showing where capital remains and where it has withdrawn.Today's Cryptocurrency Market Rally Core Reasons (2026.9.4)
1. Macro Core: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Significantly Cool Down (Main Driver)
Fed Governor Waller released dovish remarks, clearly stating that if inflation continues to decline, the September FOMC meeting is inclined to keep rates unchanged and pause rate hikes. CME interest rate futures data show a sharp drop in the probability of a September rate hike, the US dollar index weakens, US Treasury yields decline, and global risk assets (US tech stocks, cryptocurrencies) collectively experience valuation recovery, with risk appetite significantly rebounding.
2. Concentrated Liquidation of Derivatives Shorts Accelerates the Rally
The crypto leverage market saw large-scale forced liquidations of shorts: over $300 million in shorts liquidated within 4 hours, and over $500 million liquidated across the entire market within 24 hours. A large amount of short-selling funds were forced to buy back, pushing prices higher, creating a "short squeeze" scenario that amplified the upward momentum.
3. Positive Expectations for US Crypto Regulatory Policies
The US Senate's "CLARITY Act" crypto regulatory bill is about to advance. The market expects the US to introduce a clear compliance framework for crypto assets, clarifying the distinction between crypto securities and commodities, reducing regulatory uncertainty, and increasing institutional capital willingness to enter. Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, providing long-term buying support.
4. Resonance and Strengthening in External Markets
US tech giants and crypto concept stocks (Coinbase, Galaxy Digital, etc.) rose sharply in sync, creating a positive feedback loop in risk asset sentiment, further driving a bullish atmosphere in the crypto market.The moment the CORE reward address had an issue, the most panicked were not retail investors, but the nodes that rely on arbitrage for their livelihood. Have you ever wondered why a small bug in an on-chain contract can cause major exchanges to collectively hit the pause button? The situation is actually not complicated. The $CORE reward distribution address had an error, and some nodes actually received rewards exceeding their due amount. On-chain data doesn't lie; once over-distribution is confirmed, the most direct consequence is that someone might dump the excess tokens into the market before the fix. Major exchanges pause deposits and withdrawals not to punish anyone, but to first protect themselves from potential bad debts. I see many people shouting "It's going to crash again," but what the market is really trading is something else: this pause on deposits and withdrawals has shut down arbitrage channels, artificially cutting off short-term selling pressure. But once resumed, will the backlog of withdrawal demands turn into fuel for a second wave of selling? - The bullish logic is that CORE, as a public chain with a certain ecological foundation, once the reward mechanism is restored after the fix, the panic accumulated during the pause might actually become an opportunity for chip rotation. The big holders haven't fled; it's the leveraged positions that have. - The bearish risk lies in the fact that the node reward error exposes roughness at the governance level. If even a core process like reward distribution can have bugs, the market's technical trust in it will be re-evaluated, which is more concerning than short-term price fluctuations. Note a detail often overlooked: the smaller chain $BICO is still publicly supporting the bigger chain, calling it a quality public chain. Such siding at times like this is often the project party's way of... BTC
Damn, the 10-year US Treasury yield is causing trouble again
It once surged to around 4.817% during the session
The highest since November 2023
Don't be fooled by the rise from 4.7% to 4.8%
In the financial market, these few basis points are no joke
Why is the market so scared?
Because the 10-year US Treasury
is, to some extent, the main valve of the global financial market
When it rises
mortgage rates, corporate financing, stock valuations, bond prices
and even global asset pricing all suffer
What's worse is
now oil prices are hovering around $90
The Middle East situation is still unsettled
Oil prices rise, inflation expectations go up, rate cut expectations go down, and US Treasury yields continue to climb
This creates a pretty nasty cycle
Moreover, the market is even betting on a Fed rate hike in September
The probability has reached about two-thirds
If that's the case
BTC is definitely going to take a hit $DOGE Haha, I am really satisfied with Dogecoin's performance tonight!
Dogecoin is very strong tonight, rising 10% in a few hours, leading the mainstream coins.
The price has risen to 0.08995, just a step away from 0.09, which puzzles me — it’s just 0.00005 short of breaking through, making the data look better?
What’s so scary about the 0.09 level?
I analyzed the fundamentals; the open interest (OI) is currently declining, having fallen below $70 million.
This indicates that the current rally is dominated by a short squeeze, with a large number of high-leverage positions driving this surge.
According to on-chain data, recently a whale accumulated 1.7 billion coins between 0.081 and 0.083.
Additionally, the Xpayments payment benefit has been hyped repeatedly; this news has been circulated over and over, each big surge is promoted again, really putting the main players in a tough spot, as they can’t find a better story to tell! 😂
The price, combined with the previous gains, has already increased significantly.
The short-term price is extremely deviated from the moving average, especially after the short squeeze, with OI continuously falling. I think it’s unrealistic for the main players to spend real money to push up a coin that has already risen so much, so the chance of a pullback is increasing.
Currently, a sideways consolidation is urgently needed to clear out the weak profit-taking positions, which might allow for a higher move.
For bulls, around 0.0895 could be considered for taking some profits to reduce the risk of drawdown caused by a pullback.
I do not recommend going fully short yet, because the uptrend stalling is likely due to insufficient short positions above, making it hard to maintain the short squeeze rally.
Now, there is a high chance that these shorts will become fuel for the main players to push the price up, so it’s best to wait for the market to stabilize, consolidate, and confirm direction before following the trend.
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice! This candlestick in the early morning was somewhat sudden. From 20:00 to 24:00, BTC climbed from around $77,936 all the way to $81,359, reaching a high of $81,377. It rose about 4.7% in the past 24 hours. ETH also climbed back above $2,500, SOL rose to around $105, and both DOGE and XRP rose more than 9%. The previously lackluster market finally came alive a bit, which is quite uplifting. But whether this good mood can continue, we need to first look at the US August nonfarm payroll data at 20:30 tonight. If you only look at new jobs this time, it's easy to misjudge the market. Whether the unemployment rate has changed, whether wage growth is hot, and whether previous values have been revised downward will all affect how the market interprets this report. If employment weakens significantly, funds may continue to ease concerns about a rate hike in September, giving BTC a chance to continue its rally from last night. But if employment and wages are both strong, the bullish sentiment that just heated up will likely cool down quickly. The most frustrating thing is actually the mixed data. For example, new jobs look average, but wages remain hot. No one can immediately draw conclusions about this outcome; it's not surprising if the candlestick first jumps up, then drops down. Waller's speech last night gave the market some breathing room. He said that if data released over the next two weeks continues to show inflation is declining, he tends to maintain current rates; If inflation rebounds in August, then the September 15-16 meeting could still raise rates. That's all for now$EGLD This short position is indeed a bit frustrating.
The total contract open interest across the network is 39 million, with a long-to-short ratio of 6 to 4, meaning 6 out of 10 people are chasing longs. Logically, in this situation, the manipulator should be dumping, but instead, it pulled the price up by 30 points during the market's slow decline, and the contract open interest multiplied several times in one day.
Why the pump?
Essentially, the chip structure is too light. EGLD's circulating market cap is less than 200 million, with very poor spot depth. Whales can push the price up by 30% with just a few million dollars. Additionally, during market oscillations, funds tend to concentrate on speculating small-cap altcoins, amplifying liquidity premiums.
But a pump doesn't mean a reversal.
On-chain data shows frequent large transfers and a clear increase in net inflows to exchanges—this looks more like a sign of a pump-and-dump rather than a trend reversal. Such volume-less pumps usually don't last long.
From a technical perspective, 5.3 is the first resistance level; above that, 5.8-6.0 is a vacuum zone with a chip gap. If it really pumps there, it’s likely to trigger a large number of limit sell orders.
Honestly, the core reason why people lose money shorting altcoins is heavy positions and high leverage, not the market targeting anyone. Small positions can withstand volatility; the altcoin game is that it will eventually come down.
My position is still open; I haven't exited.
If it breaks above 5.5, I admit defeat and will exit; if it doesn't, I'll add to my position when it comes down. Altcoins are about riding volatility—manage your position size well and patiently wait for the right moment. #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Reasons why Bitcoin can't fall further
It might be because leverage has mostly been washed out
$BTC has recently been fluctuating repeatedly between 77,000 and 80,000 USD, which looks exhausting, but the derivatives market has actually undergone a positive change.
After this round of adjustment, the open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has dropped to about 280,000 BTC, reaching the lowest level since May, while the funding rate has also returned to a relatively neutral level.
In other words, the high leverage from previous chasing rallies has been largely cleared out
So now I'm actually less afraid of this sideways movement.
The price is still high, but leverage has already been reduced first.
As long as 76,000 to 77,000 USD continues to hold, I prefer to interpret this period as chip consolidation.
The next time it retakes 80,000, the market might be healthier than before.
$BTC $SPCX Elon Musk's Nine Crazy Toys
Number Two: Kicked out of the driver's seat but didn't lose the race: X.com and PayPal
The public often views Musk being replaced as CEO of PayPal as a failed decision, but looking back at the merger process, it seems more like a corporate power struggle. In 1999, Musk invested the proceeds from Zip2 into X.com, aiming to build not just an online payment tool but a single portal encompassing deposits, payments, investments, and financial services. After X.com merged with Confinity, conflicts over branding, technical architecture, and management style were constant. In 2000, some executives pushed the board to replace Musk with Peter Thiel while Musk was abroad. Musk did not step down voluntarily, and the market did not reject the concept of online finance; he remained on the board and retained one of the largest shareholder positions. PayPal went public in 2002 and was acquired by eBay for about $1.5 billion the same year. It was spun off from eBay in 2015 and remains a publicly traded company today. Psychologically, this event may have made him permanently alert to control issues; without the protection of the board and capital, creative ideas might ultimately be taken over by others. More than twenty years later, he bought back the X.com domain and renamed Twitter to X, as if returning to the game that was forcibly interrupted back then. PayPal is not his decision's tombstone; rather, it proves he foresaw the future of online finance early on, only to have the controller taken from him by his own people in the first round.The ETF flows in the crypto market are revealing an important signal: 💸 $BTC → Outflow of about $236 million 💰 $ETH → Inflow of about $10.95 million 🟣 $SOL → Inflow of about $10.19 million 🟢 $XRP → Inflow of about $14.38 million On September 1, there was a significant capital outflow from the Bitcoin spot ETF, while ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to attract new funds. This does not mean the altcoin season is fully confirmed. But it does indicate one thing: institutional funds have not disappeared; they are just redirecting. 📌 Latest market update: On September 3, it was announced that spot BTC and ETH trading services will be offered to institutional clients in the UAE, showing that traditional financial institutions are still expanding their digital asset footprint. Meanwhile, the market remains influenced by interest rate expectations, oil prices, and geopolitical risks. Federal Reserve officials stated that if inflation continues to ease, they might support keeping rates unchanged in September, but rising oil prices could still change that judgment. So, what really matters now is not: "When will altcoin season start?" but rather: Where will the next round of incremental funds flow first? Can BTC's capital flow strengthen again? Can ETH continue to attract institutional allocations? Can the inflows into SOL and XRP translate into sustained market momentum? Capital is voting. Next, let's see who it will cast its vote for. 👀Capital inflows show divergence, market funds becoming increasingly selective
Currently, the crypto market is experiencing capital inflows, but the flow of funds shows a clear imbalance, with ETF fund data clearly reflecting internal institutional disagreements.
On September 1, BTC ETFs saw a large net outflow, with outflows reaching $236.46 million. In stark contrast, ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to see net inflows of $10.95 million, $10.19 million, and $14.38 million respectively. Institutional funds are flowing out of Bitcoin and reallocating to other major coins, highlighting a pronounced rotation of capital.
This phenomenon does not indicate that a full altcoin market rally has officially begun, nor can it directly confirm the arrival of an altcoin bull market. It more so reflects institutional fund selection; funds are no longer blindly piling into Bitcoin but are actively diversifying into other sectors, becoming more selective in their picks.
While BTC faces institutional sell-offs, other major coins continue to attract capital. The core market question becomes: which direction will the next wave of incremental funds choose? Will it continue to spread around mid-sized major coins like ETH and SOL, or will subsequent funds flow back into BTC?
With non-farm payroll data approaching and macro uncertainties still unresolved, even if some coins receive capital support, the market remains uncertain. Under this capital divergence pattern, the market is no longer a broad rally. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the ongoing changes in ETF funds to judge the direction of shifting capital preferences.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #FOMC last data set before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Elon Musk won big tonight, SPCX and TSLA both surged over 7%+
Nothing much to say, Musk's ecosystem collectively went wild tonight.
SPCX hit 151, up nearly 8 points, TSLA also soared over 7%, directly reaching 382. These two brothers taking off simultaneously is no coincidence.
The logic is basically twofold: first, the market sentiment is truly fomo, with expectations of Fed easing, funds are scooping up quality growth assets; second, Musk's recent moves in AI and aerospace are very frequent, and the market is repricing the "Musk premium."
Simply put, institutions are betting on the synergy of Musk's ecosystem—SPCX's Starlink + TSLA's autonomous driving + AI computing power. This storyline is sexy enough and enough to make funds rush in first.
But a reminder, such dual-line surges often come with short-term sentiment peaks. $TSLA $SPCX 🚨 Beyond Expectations! U.S. Services PMI Soars to 55.4, Recession Predictions Once Again "Proven Wrong"?
Key Data Overview:
- Actual: 55.4 (Significantly above expectations)
- Forecast: 54.3
- Previous: 54.1
- Key Signal: Continuous expansion with strengthening momentum
💥 Data Interpretation: The Resilient U.S. Economy
While the market is still debating between a "hard landing" or a "soft landing," the latest services PMI data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has thrown cold water on the bears.
1. Crushing Expectations, Rejecting Recession
The actual figure of 55.4 not only surpasses the previous 54.1 but also significantly exceeds the market forecast of 54.3. In economics, a PMI above 50 indicates expansion. The 55.4 reading means that the U.S. services sector — the core engine accounting for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy — is not only running but accelerating.
2. Trend Reversal, Momentum Rebound
The long-term chart below clearly shows that after peaking and falling in 2022, the ISM services PMI struggled around the 50 expansion-contraction line between 2023 and 2024. However, the latest green candlestick (green dot) establishes a clear short-term upward trend, indicating economic activity is emerging from the trough and re-entering a strong expansion phase.
📉 Potential Market Impact
This "red-hot" data report is destined to trigger a chain reaction in global financial markets:
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations Cool Down
This is the most direct impact. The strong performance in services suggests inflation may be sticky, and the economy is not fragile enough to require the Fed to immediately implement "preventive large rate cuts." The aggressively priced rate cut path may need revision, and the "Higher for Longer" interest rate environment might last longer than expected.
- U.S. Dollar Index Supported
With fundamentals stronger than Europe and other major economies, combined with delayed rate cut expectations, the dollar exchange rate is typically pushed higher. For non-U.S. currencies, this presents another stress test.
- Risk Assets as a "Double-Edged Sword"
- Positive side: The logic of "no news is good news" still partially applies here. A strong economy means corporate earnings have support, and U.S. stock markets (especially cyclical sectors) may rise short-term due to "recession fears easing."
- Negative side: If the market starts pricing in "no Fed rate cuts," concerns over tightening liquidity will suppress valuations, especially for high-growth tech stocks, where elevated risk-free rates remain a Damocles sword.
🔮 Summary: Don’t Short the U.S. Lightly
The core message from this chart is simple: don’t underestimate the resilience of the U.S. economy.
Despite a prolonged high interest rate environment, the services sector, a pillar of the economy, continues to operate above 55. For investors, now may not be the time to blindly bet on a "deep recession." Following the data’s guidance and staying flexible is the best strategy to navigate the current macroeconomic fog. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 After a sharp surge of nearly twenty thousand US dollars and subsequent consolidation, everyone is very nervous. The 'tyrant chart' has appeared again: many influencers who shouted last month that the price would crash from around 60,000 to thirty or forty thousand, wavered a bit and changed their stance when the price rose a couple of weeks ago. But after a slight short-term pullback in the last two or three days, they started shouting again that it will drop to 60,000. I actually think that if $BTC just consolidates here and pulls back a bit, it might be fine; the real thing to watch out for is if it first creates a higher high around 83,000—completely ending this downtrend. Then, those who originally expected a crash and a bottom in October based on the four-year cycle will believe the bull market has truly arrived, surrender there, and even chase the price up. The real correction is very likely to happen right there. When gathering information, remember to filter out the noise from those who are bullish when prices rise and bearish when prices fall. Non-farm payrolls are about to be released, BTC surged by two thousand points, and many are guessing whether the good news has been priced in advance.
I’m hesitant to chase here; it feels more like funds are preemptively speculating on the data.
Officials’ speeches have released dovish signals, but the services PMI data remains strong, inflationary pressure persists, and the probability of a 25BP rate hike in September remains high.
Tomorrow’s non-farm payroll expectation is an increase of 56,000; if the data strengthens, 80,000 will become a strong resistance again.
Looking at two market targets:
$BEAT is around 0.126, with decent 24-hour trading activity; previous unlocked chip selling pressure still exists. To open up upward space, holding above the 0.13 level is a key test.
$ZEC continues its strong momentum, currently near 860, with sustained large transactions and intense high-level speculation.
In the current situation, chasing highs has a poor risk-reward ratio, and betting against the trend on a pullback is equally risky.
BTC is approaching a key resistance level; I choose to watch patiently and not participate in a tail-end rally, waiting for the data release to seek more certain opportunities. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC $ETH Macro Background: US-Iran Conflict + Interest Rate Hike Expectations, Dual Pressure on BTC
Recently, the pressure on BTC is no longer just a technical issue; the macro environment is clearly deteriorating.
1. Escalation of US-Iran Conflict — The Biggest Geopolitical Risk
In early September, the US-Iran military conflict continued to escalate, causing crude oil prices to surge rapidly. Risk assets came under pressure, and BTC fell from above $79,000 to around $76,000-$77,000.
At the same time, Brent crude briefly broke above $93, and US Treasury yields rose again. The biggest problem caused by the geopolitical conflict is not just a simple risk-off sentiment but the potential for further pushing up energy prices, thereby intensifying inflationary pressure. (TradingView)
2. Interest Rate Hike Expectations — Still a Macro Headwind
After Jackson Hole, the market sharply increased expectations for a September rate hike, with CME data showing the highest probability close to over 60%.
However, the latest situation has changed; the probability of a September rate hike has fallen back to about 48%, mainly influenced by more dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials. In other words, the market has re-entered a phase of uncertainty where both hiking and not hiking are possible. (Barron's)
3. Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls — The Biggest Variable This Week
ADP employment data has shown signs of weakening, but a cooling labor market does not necessarily mean the Fed will not hike rates.
What the market is truly focused on now is: how weak the nonfarm payrolls will be and whether employment data can offset the inflationary pressure caused by rising crude oil prices.
If nonfarm payrolls are significantly weaker than expected, rate hike expectations may cool further, giving BTC a chance to rebound; but if employment data is stronger than expected and crude oil continues to rise, then September rate hike expectations may heat up again, and BTC will still face considerable short-term downside pressure.
Therefore, I will not judge bull or bear markets based on a single data point.
In the short term, watch the nonfarm payrolls first; the real macro key remains: employment + inflation + crude oil.
BTC’s downside needs to focus on the $68,000-$75,000 range, which can serve as a risk protection zone for subsequent market moves.
$BTC $ETH $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 BTC's September trend unfolds chronologically as follows. This report does not cite any specific price, level, probability, or capital data, only analyzing possible trend structures and market sentiment evolution. September 1–11: Upward attempts stalled, news disturbances gradually increase positioning. Time anchors: 9/4 Nonfarm Payrolls → 9/6 Large token unlocks → 9/10 PPI → 9/11 CPI possible scenarios: Buying attempts to advance, but upbound levels are blocked. The market opens with the previous upward momentum, making several attempts to push upward, but each time it approaches a key resistance zone, it is pushed back, forming a "try—fail—try again" cycle. This is not because there is no buying, but rather that buying pressure is insufficient to break through in one go. 9/4 Nonfarm Payrolls is the first watershed. Weak employment data weakens tightening expectations and benefits risk assets; Strong data intensifies tightening pricing and suppresses the market. This is the most important single-day volatility trigger before the FOMC: the unlocked large tokens on 9/6 disrupt supply. Although a large number of token unlocks do not guarantee specific outcomes, they significantly increase volatility and drag down overall market sentiment, causing a double blow to PPI and CPI from 9/10 to 9/11. These are the last two inflation readings before the FOMC, determining how the market bets on the mid-month interest rate decision. If the data is hot, tightening expectations heat up; If cool, it may change market policy bets. The meaning of unresolved challenges: the market is stuck at the "critical point," with volume rising but no result. This stage of rally is not a signal to increase positions but to reduce positionsThe dominance of USDT+USDC stablecoins broke below 9.65% today. Recall that according to our estimates, this level is a "watershed" between the bear and bull markets. A detailed analysis of this chart was made on August 27. Now, the dominance, in addition to the breakout of the level, has returned to a stable downtrend according to our indicator on the 4-hour TF. This is due to the fact that #ETH and 32 other assets from the TOP-200 have returned to a stable uptrend on the 4-hour TF. The nuance is that the chart has one Strong signal of potential loss per hourTonight $BTC and $ETH suddenly rose in sync, and the US stock market also followed suit. My $SPCX also turned green, with a moderate increase in trading volume.
The core reason is not positive news, but the market pricing in advance. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll data may be weak, and funds are rushing to anticipate a rate cut. The correlation between the US stock market and cryptocurrencies indicates the same underlying logic: improved liquidity expectations.
However, this kind of market that sells on expectations and buys on facts often experiences a pullback after the data is released. After tomorrow's non-farm payroll data comes out, whether to chase the rally or wait for a pullback to enter the market can be discussed.
#FOMC last set of data before: this Friday's non-farm payroll #30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days #There has been a clear dynamic change in recent news factors affecting Bitcoin's movement. The sudden shift in Fed policy expectations on September 3 has become the biggest variable currently, while previously feared market concerns about rate hike risks have significantly eased. 1. Short-term Technical Resistance (Mild Impact) 1. Long-term holder selling pressure zone between $83,000 and $86,000 - On-chain data shows that this range concentrates about 1.05 million Bitcoins (worth about $85 billion) of long-term holders, who have not sold after a full downward cycle, forming key resistance. - If the current price remains above $80,000, it will test whether holders take profits near the breakeven point, potentially triggering a phased pullback. 2. Doubts about the sustainability of ETF inflows - In August, the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $3.52 billion, but the inflow structure was highly concentrated: BlackRock IBIT alone contributed 75.6% ($2.3 billion), and there was already a single-day net outflow in the first week of September. - If subsequent inflows cannot be sustained, the market may fall back into liquidity inadequacy. II. Mid-term Market Sentiment Drivers (Moderate Impact) 1. Geopolitical Conflicts and Energy Price Volatility - Tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude prices above $90 per barrel, intensifying inflation concerns and indirectly affecting the Fed's policy path. - Rising oil prices may weaken demand for risk assets by squeezing corporate profits and consumer purchasing power, but the current impact has been partially offset by the Fed's dovish shift. 2. Regulatory Policy Progress - New from the US SECA quick glance at the liquidation data from the past 24 hours reveals the nature of this rally: shorts were forcibly liquidated for over 180 million, while longs only for a little over 10 million — this is a textbook short squeeze, not a rally driven by active buying capital.
A characteristic of a short squeeze is that it relies on the "passive buying" from shorts capitulating and closing positions; once all the stop losses are triggered, the fuel runs out. So after shorts are wiped out, many think the price will keep rising, but this is precisely when short-term tops are most likely to form.
Looking at the funding rates now, they have only mildly turned positive and haven't reached extreme levels, indicating that longs haven't been aggressively adding leverage — but this also means this rally lacks new long consensus to take over.
Don't equate "shorts being cleared" directly with "the start of a bull market"; those are two different things. Here's a subtle but very trade-relevant hidden signal covered by the K-line: Oman quietly rejected Iran's proposal to charge commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz — previously, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard hinted that the two countries had reached an agreement, but now that claim has been contradicted.
Why is this important? Over the past two weeks, oil prices have been rising steadily, with about half of that increase priced in as a "Strait of Hormuz chokepoint" premium. Now that narrative is cooling down, loosening one of the supports for oil price gains.
The transmission chain to crypto is like this: oil → inflation expectations → rate hike bets → pressure on risk assets. So if you reflexively shout "geopolitical tension means bullish BTC" at every sign of trouble, it's time to shelve that old script.
On the market front, don't chase trades in a panic over geopolitical news; the key is to see how it actually prices in.#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch a US Dollar Stablecoin
Twenty-one major overseas banks have come together, planning to release a coin pegged to the US dollar in the first half of 2027.
It will be a digital US dollar on the blockchain, with one coin equivalent to one US dollar.
I think this is a signal that traditional large institutions are gradually starting to accept the crypto ecosystem. In the long run, it will be easier for banks' money to enter the space, which is good for the entire industry.
However, I won’t rush in impulsively to bet on a big surge just because of this news.
First, this is only a plan; the actual launch won’t happen until 2027, so there’s still a long way to go with many uncertainties. Right now, it’s mostly hype and won’t immediately drive a market surge.
Second, products made by banks will definitely have to comply with various regulatory rules. The controls will be much stricter than now, and the user experience may not be the same as what we’re used to.
In the short term, how the market moves still depends on the Federal Reserve, non-farm payroll data, and other indicators. This news won’t change the current market situation. $BTC $ETH $SOL The signal to watch most closely right now: greed is replacing divergence as the biggest market risk
When BTC consolidates with low volume at a high level and altcoins start to rise indiscriminately, what I hear most is no longer "Will it fall?" but "What to buy to double the fastest." Technical analysis in group chats is becoming less frequent, while screenshots of orders and trades are increasing, and even the most conservative friends are starting to ask how to increase leverage — this shift makes me more uneasy than any bearish divergence
The most dangerous moments in the market are often not continuous declines, but when all pullbacks are instantly bought back and the long-short ratio is extremely skewed. At this point, fundamentals no longer matter; chip turnover changes from "exchanging beliefs" to "fool's relay." Once marginal new funds weaken, the structure will collapse under its own weight
Underlying coordinates more worth monitoring than drawing lines:
First, BTC is the "pressure relief valve" of the market. If BTC can maintain a narrow consolidation above the MA120, it indicates systemic risk is still distant; but if it breaks down below the recent consolidation support with volume, no matter how calm the news is, it could trigger a sentiment reversal. The longer the sideways movement, the greater the inertia for a trend change
Second, ETH is the "leading indicator" of altcoin liquidity. If the exchange rate stabilizes and rises, there is confidence for capital to overflow; if the exchange rate continues to weaken or key support is lost, the rotation game of altcoins may pause at any time. If ETH is stable, the sector dares to follow; if ETH is weak, independent rallies are mostly traps
The best current strategy is not to bet on direction, but to reduce leverage and control position size, letting the "fear of missing out" settle down. Real opportunities always come after the next panic8:30 PM tonight, key variable: $BTC Don't rush to judge bullish or bearish.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
On September 4th, 8:30 PM Beijing time, August nonfarm payrolls will be released. The market's habitual reaction: poor data bets on rate cuts as positive, good data bets on tightening as negative. But this time, the script isn't that simple.
Compared to "new additions," the market fears "revisions to previous data" more.
July employment decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by over 100,000 combined — the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' "post-facto corrections" have become routine. If tomorrow night’s new additions turn positive, but the previous two months are sharply revised down, the quality of this "improvement" is questionable. Focusing only on the headline number might mean the market doesn't even understand what it's trading.
For BTC, expectations of rate cuts do not equal direct benefits.
Cooling employment eases rate hike pressure, provided the market believes the economy can "soft land." If the data reveals signs of recession, risk assets will be sold off first, and BTC will hardly be an exception. When the "recession trade" hit in 2022, this correlation was always present.
The core focus: whether the quality of new employment can withstand revisions, and whether wage growth slows down simultaneously.
A reminder: this is the last nonfarm payroll report before the rate decision, but not the final verdict — the CPI on September 11th is the decisive factor. Even if the direction is guessed right tomorrow night, it’s only a preliminary round.
It’s too early to set the tone for the rate hike path based on a single number. If holding positions over the weekend, fasten your seatbelt and leave enough room for error. It’s not hard to guess the direction, but surviving the interim volatility is the challenge.#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
Short term: The non-farm payroll data will determine whether the probability of a rate hike in September rises or falls, directly affecting whether institutions increase or decrease their ETF positions after the data release. The market has already reduced positions ahead of the non-farm data (ending 12 consecutive days of inflows).
Medium term: The CPI on September 11 is the real "decisive factor." The ETF fund flow changes caused by the non-farm data are more likely to be impulsive, while the CPI will determine the final rate decision of the FOMC on September 15-16.
Structural: Even if short-term fund flows fluctuate, the sustained net inflow trend of the Ethereum ETF from the end of August to early September reflects that institutional demand for ETH allocation is still accumulating. This structural demand will not fundamentally reverse due to a single month's non-farm data. $ETH Crude oil hasn't been blocked at the Strait of Hormuz, but it's stuck in the global supply chain.
These past couple of days, crude oil has really pushed emotions to the limit.
The Strait of Hormuz hasn't been completely blocked as many imagined; the real trouble lies in the rerouted supply chain. Saudi exports have dropped to multi-year lows, Red Sea transport is disrupted, and Russian energy facilities are under pressure.
As a result, oil prices have been pushed up continuously, with Brent crude reaching a six-week high again.
But the more I see this, the less I want to chase the long side.
I'm even preparing to try a small short position on crude oil.
Not because I think the supply issues are fake—on the contrary, the problems are real.
But the biggest risk in trading is mixing "facts" with "how much higher prices can still go."
Right now, oil price trading isn't just about crude itself; it's a combination of transport risks, supply concerns, inflation expectations, and emotional premiums all stacked together.
So what I want to try isn't guessing the oil price peak.
I just feel that when all the bad news has already been used to fuel the bulls, can every new piece of news still push the price up by the same magnitude?
If it can keep surging, I'll admit it.
If the risk premium starts to fade, then this small short position of mine becomes interesting.
Small position, no directional bet, just a trading logic:
Crude oil isn't blocked at the Strait of Hormuz, but could the price already be stuck in sentiment?
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $CL $BZ The market sentiment clearly returned today, with ETH rising nearly 5% in one day.
While others are chasing the rally, babala opened a short position at 2500.
I'm not bearish on ETH in the long term, nor do I think this rebound is over.
This trade is based on a short-term logic: ETH quickly surged from around 2370 to a high of 2515, a significant increase in a short time, and 2500–2520 happens to be a round number resistance zone.
When the price rises too fast, more funds chase the long side.
But the more everyone gets excited, the less willing I am to take the last leg at the resistance.
ETH's rise today is partly due to BTC strengthening again, boosting sentiment across the crypto market; and partly because ETH spot ETFs have been continuously attracting inflows recently, reducing circulating supply on exchanges.
These are the bulls' current advantages and also the biggest risk to my short position.
So I won't force myself to believe ETH must fall just because I opened a short.
What I really watch is whether the price can continue to hold above 2520 with volume after breaking 2500.
If it can't hold, the funds chasing the rally earlier may start to take profits, and ETH might first retest 2450, or weaker, 2400–2380.
My plan is:
✔ Open short at 2500
✔ Take partial profit near 2450
✔ If it breaks below 2450, hold remaining position for 2400–2380
✔ If it reclaims 2520, I will actively reduce my position
✔ If it effectively breaks 2535, this short trade will be stopped out
Based on opening at 2500 and stop loss at 2535, my risk is about 1.4%.
The first target at 2450 offers a $50 range, the second target at 2400 offers $100. This risk-reward ratio is acceptable, so I'm willing to try this short.
The worst thing about shorting against the trend is not being wrong in judgment, but continuing to find excuses even when the price clearly tells you otherwise.
I can be bearish at 2500, but if the market holds above 2535, I will admit my mistake straightforwardly.
Trading is not about proving you're always right, but about taking more when you're right and losing less when you're wrong.1. Tonight at 20:30, U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls Report The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report tonight at 20:30 Beijing time. The various forecasts differ somewhat, with new nonfarm payrolls expected to be roughly between 55,000 and 65,000, and the unemployment rate forecasted between 4.1% and 4.2%; July's nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000. This baseline is already weak, so if August employment continues to cool, the market may further lower its expectations for a September rate hike. Conversely, if both employment numbers and wage growth are hotter than expected, the risk appetite that was just restored in the early hours could quickly give back some gains. 2. Waller Speaks, Market Pulls Back Rate Hike Expectations Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool in August, he tends to maintain rates unchanged in September; if inflation heats up again, he would consider supporting a rate hike. After his remarks, U.S. stocks rose, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and BTC accelerated as well. Reuters' technical analysis on September 3 listed around $82,793 as a key resistance level above BTC and $75,674 as a level to watch below. BTC is now not far from the upper resistance, so chasing gains at this level does not actually offer as comfortable odds as a big bullish candle might suggest. 3. ETF Money Flows Back to BTC, ETH Sees Outflows The latest fully disclosed data as of September 2 shows: U.S. spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $101.1 million, with BlackRock's IBIT inflow at $115.4 million, while Grayscale's GBTC saw an outflow of $56.2 million New developments have emerged in Iran's strike range, with reports claiming missiles and drones have targeted the US military base Ali Al Salem in Kuwait. The local air defense system intercepted attacks for the second consecutive night, and a US-related residential area was hit and caught fire. The US side's preliminary assessment indicates no casualties so far, and the extent of damage to the base has not been fully verified. There are discrepancies between the two sides' statements, and more definitive information is awaited.
What truly deserves attention is the change in the conflict radius. Previously, the focus was on direct US-Iran confrontation and the Strait of Hormuz. Now, retaliatory actions are spreading to US-deployed countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq, with risks expanding from a single battlefield to the entire Gulf military network.
However, the market reaction is somewhat restrained, with Brent crude around $95.2 and WTI around $90.8, both declining rather than rising. The reason is the coexistence of geopolitical premiums and short-term cooling expectations: no confirmation of new large-scale clashes within hours, and Trump also stated that the new round of actions will not be prolonged.
Currently, there are two scenarios: if attacks affect energy facilities such as refineries and ports, the probability of oil prices breaking through $100 increases, and inflationary pressure will transmit to Federal Reserve policy and BTC; if the conflict is limited to military targets and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, market sentiment may stabilize. Regarding data, this Friday's nonfarm payrolls are a key reference before the FOMC, and volatility may intensify.
Risk warning: The geopolitical situation changes rapidly, and information verification may lag. Please assess risks cautiously. $BTCMany people focus on the historical average 3% drop in September to short, but actually the past three Septembers all ended up rising. This August also saw one of the strongest performances in recent years, so simply applying seasonality can easily lead to misjudgment. The current core contradiction is: whether ETFs can continue to absorb profit-taking, and whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in mid-September. If interest rates remain unchanged and funds continue to flow in, $BTC could completely break the "September curse" once again. Shouting out a crazy chase of 230 billion for Nvidia: Behind Broadcom's confidence, who is undermining Jensen Huang?
The era when Nvidia monopolized computing power and made the entire industry pay expensive taxes is facing Wall Street's fiercest gravedigger.
Broadcom has directly set an astonishing AI chip revenue target of 230 billion USD for the coming years. Daring to openly compete on Jensen Huang's home turf, its fundamental reliance is not on head-to-head competition with general-purpose GPUs, but on the global tech giants' collective mass exodus from Nvidia.
Think about it, Google, Meta, and major cloud providers have long been fed up with contributing 70% of gross profit to Nvidia. They are frantically investing in developing their own custom chips, and Broadcom is the only super arms dealer behind this group of trillion-dollar giants. From custom chip design to Ethernet switching bases, Broadcom is capturing the biggest dividend as AI infrastructure shifts from general monopoly to self-developed internal competition.
This calculation is also a loud wake-up call for the AI concept hype in the crypto circle.
Many retail investors in the secondary market are still blindly speculating on decentralized computing power projects renting GPUs, unaware that traditional top-tier computing power architecture has already entered the era of custom chips and high-speed clusters. If you only look at hype concepts and ignore the reality that computing power industrialization is rapidly lowering marginal costs, you will often be ruthlessly eliminated by the new hardware of the times.
Understanding this power throne handover, how much longer do you think Nvidia's moat can hold, and can Broadcom truly rewrite the AI chip landscape?
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 ETH's drop today is not undeserved, but it's far from a death sentence yet
$ETH returned to around $2400 today, with a more noticeable drop than $BTC, which actually fits its current role. $BTC can be considered digital gold, a safe haven asset under war and debt pressures, but $ETH is more like an on-chain financial asset. When interest rates rise and risk appetite shrinks, its valuation gets hit first. Today, with high oil prices, high US Treasury yields, and rising rate hike expectations, it's no surprise the market stepped on ETH a bit harder.
But I don't think $ETH is doomed just because of today's drop. Its real challenge isn't the fall today, but that it needs to provide more evidence than $BTC to keep funds invested. As long as BTC maintains its scarcity narrative, institutions will keep buying; for ETH to rise, the market will ask if on-chain revenue is recovering, if ETF funds are sustained, if staking yields are attractive compared to US Treasuries, and if the L2 ecosystem is still capturing value. This is ETH's tough spot: many stories, but each requires data.
On the short-term chart, the $2400 level is very critical. If this level holds, today's drop is just a normal pullback after August's rebound; if $2400 breaks, the next support to watch is around $2350 or even $2300. The $2500 to $2550 range above remains a confirmation zone; until ETH climbs back there, it can only be called a recovery, not a market re-domination. It needs a strong bullish candle with volume to dispel the impression of being "weaker than BTC."
A good angle to write about ETH today is that it is being repriced by US Treasury yields. When Treasuries are high, 2% to 3% on-chain yields aren't that attractive; but if employment data weakens later and the market bets on rate cuts, ETH staking yields will immediately regain relative appeal. In other words, ETH doesn't lack cards now, but it needs a favorable interest rate environment to play them well.
The worst scenario on the chart is this: $BTC sideways, $ETH continuing to drift down. That means funds only want the most certain assets and are unwilling to spread risk. If BTC stays flat but ETH can reclaim $2500, the situation is completely different, indicating the market is shifting from "defensive allocation" to "application-driven resilience." This signal is more important than daily price moves.
Compared to $SOL and $DOGE, $ETH's advantage lies in accumulation, not speed. Stablecoins, DeFi, institutional custody, RWA pilots—many funds will ultimately settle in the Ethereum ecosystem first. The problem is the market is currently unwilling to pay a high premium for "long-term accumulation" because short-term focus is on interest rates and the dollar. Its fundamentals are there, but sentiment hasn't fully returned.
If I were doing short-term observation, I wouldn't curse just because it dropped to $2400 today, nor would I rush in on a rebound. My plan would be: watch for support above $2400, look for strength above $2500, and consider the short-term structure broken below $2300. ETH's trickiest zone is the middle ground—neither breaking up nor down, grinding you into doubt.
$ETH now is like a compressed spring, but whether it can bounce depends not on how loudly it shouts bullish, but on whether interest rates, ETFs, and on-chain fees all improve together. Today's drop isn't pretty, but it's not a crash; whoever can reclaim $2500 next will earn the right to say ETH is back at the center of the table.
So I prefer to treat $ETH as a "waiting for confirmation" asset, not a "rush in immediately" one. Its opportunity lies on the right side, not in sentiment. The longer $2400 holds, the harder it is for bears to keep pressing; once $2500 is reclaimed with volume, those who criticized its weakness will come back looking for reasons. ETH's biggest fear is no discussion; discussion is still ongoing, what's missing is a convincing candle.Ansem: Bear market strategies will lose money in bull markets; to maximize profits, you have to learn to "dream" again. Crypto trader Ansem said that short-term and high-frequency strategies that survive in a bear market can actually become sources of losses during a bull market. To capture the biggest profits in a bull market, you need to dare to hold spot positions and fantasize about long-term holding. He suggests that traders who have already made profits can hold part of their positions long-term and keep the rest for short-term trading. At the same time, he publicly traded ZEC again, saying that buying ZEC at $948 is like buying Bitcoin at $948. According to HTX market data, ZEC is currently trading at $948, up over 16% in 24 hours. Ansem's core point points to the most classic problem in crypto market cycle transitions: the strategy that helps you survive in a bear market may actually be the root cause of losses in a bull market. In a bear market, the downward trend is key, and short-term, high-frequency, fast-in, fast-exit defensive styles are key to survival. Any long-term fantasy can turn into deep trapping; But in a bull market, the biggest profit often comes from holding the entire trend, rather than repeatedly buying high and low. Using bear market thinking in a bull market often results in frequent exits, missing the main rally, then chasing back with higher prices, only to wear down profits back and forth. Based on this logic, Ansem's solution is a compromise: accounts already profitable convert part of their positions into long-term holding, keeping exposure to the trend; The remaining funds continue to trade short-term as usual, maintaining their feel and cash flow. This essentially acknowledges that no one else existsHistorically, $ETH has been one of the weaker months for Ethereum in September. After a surge in August, it is often followed by a sharp profit-taking in September. Considering the current market situation, there are likely to be three scenarios ahead:
Scenario 1 (Neutral, High Probability): High-level range-bound oscillation. The market will repeatedly tug between $2250 and $2550, using consolidation to digest previous profits and await clearer macro data in mid-September.
Scenario 2 (Optimistic): Breakout with volume. If macro data exceeds expectations positively (e.g., the Federal Reserve turns dovish) and ETF funds flow back in large amounts, ETH is expected to break through the $2550 resistance with volume, opening an upward space toward $2800 to $3000.
Scenario 3 (Pessimistic): Breakdown and decline. If macro negatives intensify (e.g., confirmed rate hikes) combined with continuous ETF outflows, ETH may break below the $2250 support, returning to a deep correction and challenging the $2000 level in the short term. $BTC $ETH institutional ETF outflows coexist with spot buying
ETF outflows: In early September, the US spot Ethereum ETF ended a 12-day streak of net inflows, recording about $48 million in net outflows. This reflects institutions taking profits and adopting a wait-and-see attitude at current highs, weakening short-term upward momentum.
Spot buying support: Despite ETF outflows, institutions have not fully exited. For example, US-listed company BitMine recently made a large purchase of over 50,000 ETH, with its total holdings approaching 5% of Ethereum's total supply. This continued accumulation at the spot level provides solid mid-to-long-term bottom support for ETH. $BTC ETH Latest Analysis: Price and Funding Interpretation After the Fed Turns Dovish
⚠️ This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Core Macro Signal: The Fed’s “Swing Hawk” Suddenly Turns Dovish
Fed Governor Waller’s statement on September 3 became a key market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if the August inflation data continues to slow, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. This statement directly reduced the market’s probability of a September rate hike from 63% to 48.4%.
2. Waller, previously a hawkish official, was interpreted by the market as signaling that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is likely nearing its end. The US dollar index weakened accordingly, while gold, silver, and the US tech stock sector rose simultaneously.
3. The core impact of this signal on the crypto market is that the funding pressure under a high interest rate environment is expected to marginally ease. ETH, as a highly elastic risk asset, is more sensitive to Fed policy than BTC.Focus on tomorrow's non-farm payrolls, ETH funds have clearly cooled down 👀
$ETH is still fluctuating around $2400 tonight, with no obvious breakout in price for now, but the key driving force behind the previous rise—ETF funds—has already started to slow down significantly.
Data shows that daily inflows into ETH ETFs have dropped sharply from $102 million → $88 million → about $9 million.
This is worth paying close attention to.
After all, one of the important drivers for ETH's rapid rebound from around $2000 to $2500 was the continuous inflow of institutional funds.
Now that funds are slowing, ETH will need to rely more on spot buying to prove its strength.
So tonight, I won’t rush to call $3000.
📍 Whether $2400 can hold is key.
Next, we focus on tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data.
If the data favors risk assets, and $ETH can reclaim $2500, then I believe the next wave of the market can truly begin.
For tonight, just observe; tomorrow, watch the data. 📊$ARB 0.128.
Seven days ago it was 0.09. No one was looking.
Now up 40% in a week, another 14% in 24h. Market's dead, but ARB is carrying the whole damn show.
Why? Robinhood paid its first "rent." Orbit chain fees — 10% flow back to the DAO. First month: $360K. Not huge, but it flipped the narrative. ARB is no longer just governance air — it's a yield-generating asset.
#AVGODipsSNOWPops
#GoldETFAdds10Tons
#TradFiStablecoinAlliance Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for Bitcoin performance, with sharp profit-taking often following the surge in August. Considering the current market situation, there are likely two scenarios ahead:
Scenario One (High Probability): High-level range-bound oscillation. The market will repeatedly tug between $75,000 and $83,000, using consolidation to digest August's profits and await clearer macroeconomic data in mid-September.
Scenario Two: Breakout or breakdown. If macro data exceeds expectations and ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC is expected to break out above $83,000 with volume and challenge $90,000; conversely, if it falls below the $73,000 support line, there is a risk of a deep correction down to around $68,000. $ETH Besides the pressure brought by the overall market fluctuations, OKX's recent market buzz is not as strong as it was earlier. Coupled with some on-chain Meme hotspot funds shifting, and the market constantly comparing OKB with Robinhood-related narratives, it’s actually not surprising that short-term funds are loosening. But I believe the real determinant of OKB's long-term value has never been the price fluctuations over these few days. The core question remains: Does OKX truly have the determination to build up the X Layer? Judging from the current actions, I actually feel the answer is becoming clearer. This year, X Layer has been continuously advancing infrastructure upgrades; Flashblocks was launched in January, with the official claim that the mainnet speed increased about 5 times; after the Jovian upgrade completed in July, the base fees were further reduced. Meanwhile, OKB’s positioning has become increasingly clear—it is becoming the core Gas asset of the X Layer. Moreover, OKX is not just telling stories. The product development of OKX Wallet over the past few years itself is a very intuitive example. Now the Wallet covers over 130 public chains and continues to expand towards DEX, DeFi, AI, and Onchain OS directions. Therefore, I prefer to view the current OKB as an asset in the ecological construction phase, rather than simply judging by the price strength over a few days. In the short term, it may continue to grind, and even cause some short-term funds to lose patience According to the latest news from Wall Street, the leading prediction platform Polymarket has completed a major financing round, led by 1789 Capital under Donald Trump Jr., with the round reaching a scale of $1 billion. The post-investment valuation surged to $21 billion, making it the hottest core track in Web3 currently pursued by top-tier capital.
This dual bet from top political capital and Wall Street funds is no coincidence; the core lies in Polymarket delivering real value that traditional Web3 projects lack.
First, it is the world's authentic event pricing center. Unlike subjective forecasts from traditional media and institutional polls, Polymarket relies on users betting real money to price events, covering all dimensions such as the U.S. elections, Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical conflicts, and industry hotspots. The largest single popular event betting scale has exceeded $80 million. The consensus of funds is far more accurate than public opinion forecasts, making it an important reference tool for institutions to assess macroeconomic trends.
Second, it builds a sustainable business closed loop. The platform does not rely on token speculation to harvest the market but depends on massive transaction fees and settled funds to maintain stable cash flow. It also has extremely strong network-wide public opinion penetration, connecting real political and economic events with on-chain liquidity, breaking away from the common "musical chairs" model seen in Web3 projects.
From the industry landscape perspective, the deep involvement of political capital in the on-chain track marks Web3's official transition from pure crypto narratives to a new stage of deep integration with real finance and geopolitical events. Prediction markets, with their real-world application scenarios, stable profitability, and continuous capital support,$BTC The current macro environment is the biggest factor suppressing Bitcoin's breakout. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are heating up (probability has risen above 60%), mainly driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical risks pushing up inflation expectations.
Liquidity tightening concerns: A high interest rate environment typically limits the price potential of interest-free risk assets like crypto.
Key timing: The Fed meeting on September 15-16 will be a critical variable in determining the next direction. If a rate hike is confirmed, it could trigger a significant market pullback; if rates remain unchanged, it could end the "September curse" and start a new rally. $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Someone in the group asked me if I’m still holding short positions, but I didn’t dare to reply because I’m pretty panicked myself 😅
After thoroughly reviewing the market, I still have a bearish outlook. It’s not just emotional hype; the signals are too clear. According to online reports, there’s a 68% chance of a rate hike in September, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, Japanese government bond yields have broken 3%, and after Wash’s hawkish stance, the market is moving toward tighter and longer conditions. On-chain whales have been transferring BTC and ETH to exchanges; the sideways movement is a sign of distribution, not accumulation, and ETH is even weaker than BTC. 21 banks issued stablecoins, Broadcom exceeded expectations, Snowflake rose 24%, but $BTC and $ETH only rose slightly. The positive news can’t push prices up, indicating the internal structure is already bearish.
I used to believe the positive news would trigger a catch-up rally, but I chased in and got stuck for half a month, losing 2300 and cutting losses to exit. My judgment is simple: if non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, it will directly break through 76000. Even if non-farm is weak, CPI is the real judge. In Wash’s framework, inflation is the core variable; weak employment doesn’t mean no rate hikes.
Are you still holding long positions? Let me see in the comments how many people are going against me 😂 Don’t blame me if you lose; I’m still holding on myself. What is driving CRV coin towards the 10U mark?
📊 Basic calculations
CRV circulating supply is about 1.55 billion tokens.
If the coin price reaches 10U, the corresponding market cap would need to be: 15.5 billion USD.
Compared to the current market cap in the hundreds of millions, this requires a market cap growth of several tens of times.
The historical CRV peak was 15.37U, which was created by a special environment with very few early bull market chips.
✅ Five core pillars CRV must rely on to reach 10U
1️⃣ Business explosion: crvUSD and Llamalend lending become the second growth curve
Curve’s traditional advantage is low slippage trading of stablecoins; relying only on spot stablecoin trading makes it difficult to support a market cap at the hundred-billion level.
- Wide adoption of crvUSD algorithmic stablecoin, Llamalend V2 lending market volume expansion, lending interest becomes a major new source of protocol revenue.
- Large-scale integration of RWA (real-world assets) and institutional stablecoins into Curve pools, TVL and real trading volume multiply, protocol fee income surges.
Revenue is the foundation of CRV’s value; the protocol’s real profit scale determines the attractiveness of veCRV locking.
2️⃣ veCRV locking flywheel continues to strengthen, large amounts of circulating tokens voluntarily locked
Currently, voluntary (veCRV) locking accounts for about 68% of the circulating supply.
To reach 10U, it requires:
- Protocol dividend income continues to rise, attracting more holders to actively lock CRV into veCRV;
- Further contraction of sellable liquid tokens on the market;
- "Curve wars" replay, whales competing for governance weight, actively absorbing circulating tokens.
Note: veCRV is user voluntary locking, not project team locking; in bearish markets, locks expiring will release large sell pressure.
3️⃣ Inflation pressure is largely hedged, DAO governance optimizes token release
CRV’s biggest long-term burden: continuous inflation issuance from liquidity mining every year, decreasing by 16% annually, continuously producing new CRV distributed to LP miners.
To reach 10U, one of the following must be achieved:
1. DAO votes to significantly reduce mining emission rate, lowering new token supply;
2. Protocol revenue is large enough that dividend income fully covers selling pressure caused by inflation.
The team and investor tokens have long been fully unlocked, so no large team unlock sell pressure exists, which is a major advantage for CRV, but mining inflation remains a long-term constraint.
4️⃣ Defend the moat of the track, prevent competitors from eroding market share
CRV’s foundation is low slippage trading of stablecoins and staked derivatives.
Competitors like Uniswap and Aerodrome continuously compete for stablecoin liquidity pools.
- Must maintain leadership in stablecoin trading;
- Expand multi-chain deployment, spreading Curve protocol to more public chains to enlarge the ecosystem footprint.
Losing core track market share will shrink revenue and invalidate all upward logic.
5️⃣ Super bull market environment, DeFi sector sees institutional capital inflow
10U is a very high target, difficult to achieve by project development alone, relying on external macro environment:
- Overall crypto bull market, large-scale capital returning to established DeFi blue chips;
- Clear DeFi regulatory environment, institutional capital allocating to DeFi underlying protocols;
- Market willing to assign high valuations to DeFi track.#FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday. Don't overhype the impact of Nonfarm Payrolls on the mid-to-long-term market trend.
On the eve of Nonfarm Payrolls, market trading tends to be cautious, with $BTC continuously tugging back and forth between the 77000‑78000 range. Leading employment indicators have weakened, but expectations for rate hikes remain high. Nonfarm Payrolls are just the appetizer; the core factor deciding whether there will be a rate hike in September is next week's CPI report.
Strong data tends to increase downward pressure, while weak data may test higher levels. Tonight, focus on the directional breakout of the range.
Do you think Nonfarm Payrolls will drive the price to break down, or trigger a rebound rally? Robinhood Coin Stock Meme NUDES Market Cap Surpasses $23 Million, Hits New High On September 4th, according to GMGN data, the market cap of the Coin Stock Meme project NUDES on Robinhood Chain surpassed $23 million, reaching a historic high, with a 24-hour increase of over 113% and a trading volume of $13.9 million. NUDES is paired with tokenized US stock Snap, ticker symbol SNAP. NUDES represents the emerging Coin Stock Meme gameplay. Unlike traditional Meme coins paired with USDT or ETH, Coin Stock Meme directly pairs Meme coins with on-chain tokenized US stocks; NUDES is paired with the tokenized US stock Snap. This model retains the high volatility and community-driven speculative nature of Meme coins while leveraging the popularity and narrative of real stocks. Transaction fees often partially flow back to the community treasury to accumulate the corresponding US stock tokens, creating a dual-driven structure of sentiment speculation and real asset anchoring. This market trend reflects a new fusion of tokenized stocks and Meme culture: as traditional broker Robinhood enters the on-chain ecosystem, tokenized US stocks are becoming a new narrative vehicle for on-chain speculative capital, and the derived Meme gameplay is gaining independent popularity and liquidity. However, it must be made clear that the prices of such assets are entirely driven by community sentiment and short-term capital, lacking fundamental support. The explosion in market cap and trading volume does not represent substantial capital inflow into the corresponding stocks, nor does itAs BTC quickly surged from 63,000 to 80,000, traditional finance professionals have started paying attention to the crypto space again.
Over the past week or so, I’ve been invited to calls by more than 20 leading brokerages and traditional buy-side institutions, all asking how to view this Bitcoin rally—whether the bear market is truly over or if it’s just a short squeeze.
Here are a few personal judgments, not investment advice:
1️⃣ Bitcoin has always been known for its large volatility and explosive rallies; it just lost the spotlight to AI over the past year. Now that the AI hype is reaching a turning point, Bitcoin is simply returning to its former self.
2️⃣ Bitcoin is a stubborn asset—every cycle, some people short it out of disbelief, only to end up fueling the rally.
3️⃣ The low of 57,800 in this cycle was most likely caused by market panic triggered by the Strategy board’s approval of coin sales on June 29. Although Strategy has sold coins multiple times since, it hasn’t broken that low again, indicating the market has mentally adjusted.
4️⃣ The highs in AI hardware stocks in May-June were purely emotion-driven, just like every peak in Bitcoin bull markets. This sector remains extremely crowded, with capital continuing to flow out, so only lower highs are expected over the next 12 months.
5️⃣ The macro environment is indeed under pressure, but that’s long-term pressure. Crypto assets still have room to run at this level. Plus, some people outside our industry are even more anxious; our scale is small, so everything is subject to change.
6️⃣ In this rally so far, conservatively 70% of native crypto participants have missed out, and 99% of outsiders have missed out. There’s no worry about a lack of buyers or no one getting on board.
7️⃣ Previous bear markets took 12-13 months to recover, with maximum drawdowns often exceeding 70%. This time, neither the magnitude nor the duration has reached that level.
8️⃣ Speaking of which, it just broke 81,000 again. If it breaks 83,000, we could see prices in the 90,000s.On September 2nd, the total holdings of $BTC spot ETFs rebounded to 1,259,084.11 BTC, with a net increase of 1,637.20 BTC on the day, partially recovering the outflows from September 1st, but the recovery strength is still insufficient.
The net outflow on September 1st was 3,153.48 BTC, and the inflow on September 2nd only recouped about half of that, so the past two days resemble funds being tugged back and forth at a high level rather than returning to the continuous and stable accumulation seen at the end of August.
In the first three trading days of this week, the cumulative net increase was 1,083.06 BTC, and over the past seven trading days, the cumulative net increase was 8,828.45 BTC, indicating that short-term capital flow remains positive, but the advantage has clearly narrowed, with strength not comparable to the last week of August.
Structurally, the BTC capital inflow on September 2nd was still relatively concentrated. The BTC inflow that day was not a broad-based recovery but mainly supported by a few products, especially BlackRock.28x in a single day! Apple paired stock Meme ICOIN market cap surpasses $5.5 million On September 4, according to GMGN market data, the market cap of the stock Meme ICOIN on Robinhood Chain exceeded $5.5 million, reaching a recent high and approaching the all-time peak of $5.8 million, with a 24-hour increase of over 28 times and a trading volume of $8.9 million. The uniqueness of ICOIN lies in that it is not paired with USDT or ETH, but directly forms a trading pair with tokenized Apple stock (AAPL). Stock Meme is a recently emerging on-chain play: it directly binds traditional Meme coins with tokenized stocks, so trading pairs are no longer USDT or ETH, but on-chain stock tokens like NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, etc. This design on one hand retains the high volatility and community-driven speculative nature of Meme coins, and on the other hand leverages the popularity and narrative of real stocks, attracting overlapping attention from two types of capital. Mechanically, the transaction fees of such coins often partially flow back to the community treasury to continuously accumulate the corresponding stock tokens, thus forming a dual-driven model of "sentiment speculation + real asset anchoring." ICOIN's 28x single-day surge is a typical example of this model: Apple's global recognition provides natural topicality for the token, and the on-chain community's capital relay further amplifies volatility. It should be noted that the $5.5 million market cap is still very small, liquidity is limited, and prices are easily driven by small amounts of capital, posing a risk of chasing highs