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Brothers, take a look at the candlestick, this big bullish candle on ETH is quite interesting.
During the day it was barely holding around 2368, but at night it shot straight up to 2487 in one move. A 3.77% increase, which in this dead market is like a shot of confidence for the bulls.
But don’t get too excited yet. There’s a detail in this rally — Term Labs issued an announcement saying that all fixed-rate loan positions affected in the vault have been fully recovered. This acted like a calming injection for market sentiment. Plus, the US spot ETH ETF has seen net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days, totaling over $1.5 billion.
The problem is, institutions are buying but the price hasn’t risen much. ETH has still dropped 4.57% over the past 7 days. What does this mean? Some are taking the spot market risk, while others are dumping in the derivatives market. These two forces are battling hard around the 2400 level; whoever lets go first loses.
The bigger drama is tomorrow — at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the August nonfarm payrolls.
This is the last full employment data before the September 16 FOMC. August ADP was only 38,000, far below the expected 47,000. If the nonfarm payrolls disappoint again, the probability of a rate hike in September at 62.3% could plummet; if the data unexpectedly holds strong, the hike will be confirmed, and risk assets will take another hit.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $ETH $BTC Tonight $BTC broke above 81,200, rising over 4% in 24 hours.
Catalyst: Fed Governor Waller took a dovish stance, stating that if inflation continues to slow, he tends to keep rates unchanged. Traders' rate hike bets dropped from 63% to 60%, the dollar index plunged below 99, and gold surged simultaneously. The market is trading on "improving liquidity expectations."
Capital flow: On September 2, the US spot BTC ETF shifted from net outflow to a net inflow of $101.15 million, combined with chip accumulation in the 76,000-79,000 range. Bulls took advantage of the positive news to break through 80,000 in one move.
⚠️ There is about 1.05 million BTC held long-term in the 83,000-86,000 range, forming strong resistance; if Friday's nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations and rate hike expectations rise, BTC may quickly retreat. This move looks more like expectation repair rather than a trend reversal, so chasing above 80,000 requires caution.
$SOL $ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Ethena fee conversion vote unanimously approved, programmatic ENA buyback officially launched. The Ethena Foundation announced that the fee conversion proposal was approved with 100% support, and the programmatic ENA buyback is about to begin, gradually scaling up as protocol metrics and milestones are met. Driven by this, ENA rose over 10.5% in 24 hours, currently trading at $0.166. Ethena is a DeFi protocol that issues synthetic USDe, with revenue mainly coming from the price difference between the underlying asset's yield and hedged positions. Fee conversion refers to using the protocol's real income to buy back the platform token ENA, allowing token holders to indirectly share protocol cash flow—a classic DeFi token value capture mechanism. This vote was passed with 100% support, demonstrating the community's strong consensus on the buyback plan. According to the announcement, programmatic buybacks will be launched immediately, but not all at once; rather, they will gradually scale up as protocol metrics and milestones are met, meaning buyback strength is directly linked to protocol revenue performance rather than merely short-term market support. It is worth noting that this fee conversion is not an isolated event. On August 27, the Ethena Foundation announced four ecosystem adjustments: repurchasing locked tokens held by early investors, promoting further alignment of token and equity value, launching a governance proposal for revenue buyback of ENA, and canceling future monthly VC investor unlocks. Looking at the combination of these four measures, Ethena is systematically addressing two major long-term issues facing tokens: early-stage investmentBTC is almost touching $78,000, yet the market is starting to hesitate a bit.
But there's an interesting data point.
On September 2nd, the US spot BTC ETF suddenly recorded a net inflow of $101 million. The day before, it was a $236 million outflow, and on this day it turned positive again.
So what’s most worth watching now isn’t "whether BTC will break through."
Instead, it’s:
Who exactly is still buying at this level?
If it’s just retail investors chasing the rally, the price near $78,000 could easily start to shake again.
But if ETF funds keep flowing in, and BTC can gradually turn $78,000 into support, then the nature of the move is different.
Because this means funds aren’t chasing after a breakout.
They’re already betting before the market consensus is fully formed.
Of course, $101 million is still far from enough to draw conclusions.
The real answer depends on whether funds continue to come in over the next few days.
Breaking through isn’t hard; the hard part is who’s willing to keep buying after the breakout.
$BTC Another giant is about to buy 20,000 BTC: The corporate treasury arms race is fully escalating
The dominance of MicroStrategy as the king of corporate Bitcoin reserves is being completely broken by a new wave of Wall Street capital.
When asset management institutions publicly list 20,000 BTC on their purchase list, it means corporate asset allocation has evolved from Michael Saylor's aggressive experiment to a standard hedging tool favored by conservative funds and anti-ESG asset managers. Once the position is established, the ranking of the world's second-largest corporate Bitcoin holder will be instantly rewritten.
This move represents an extremely hardcore spot market liquidity drain for the crypto secondary market. From MicroStrategy to Strive, traditional capital is treating corporate treasuries as the ultimate stronghold against fiat currency dilution.
The freely circulating supply on exchanges is already at a historic low, and if tens of thousands of coins are locked up by large OTC buyers, the supply side will face an even more severe vacuum gap. But on-exchange traders need to clearly understand the institutions' expectation management tactics; such high-profile buy signals often occur near the end of large OTC block trades. Institutions do this to attract clients to their wealth management services, not to act as philanthropists in the secondary market.
Institutions buy coins to build a long-term moat with their balance sheets. Retail investors who blindly leverage futures to chase prices just because of the positive figure of 20,000 coins will often be violently shaken out after the news settles.
Understanding this corporate treasury arms race, will you hold your spot coins long-term alongside institutions, or wait for this buying wave to push prices up before cashing out?Waller's remarks caused the rate hike expectations to collapse directly, BTC 81154, ETH 2509, both surged 5%.
Yesterday we were still talking about 2400 and 78000 not holding, today a big bullish candle pulled it back.
The logic is very clear, Waller said inflation is easing, CPI is reasonable, willing to be patient, completely diverging from Wosh's previous hawkish tone. The market directly translated this signal as a rate hike cancellation, triggering risk-on mode instantly.
This bullish candle pierced through several layers of resistance, forcing shorts to cover, and buyers rushed in stampede-style.
Short-term sentiment is already in place, next to watch is sustainability. If it can hold above 81000 and 2500 before non-farm payrolls, as long as Friday's data isn't a cold surprise, it should basically be stable.
No special comments on operations, bullish trend confirmed, pullbacks are opportunities to add positions.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Regarding the phenomenon of “X Layer’s $120,000 incentive being less effective than token buyback and burn,” it is a form of “short-term rent,” whereas token buyback and burn is a “long-term equity value reshaping.”
This $120,000 is part of the first round of X Layer’s $5 million RWA liquidity incentive program, mainly used to incentivize RWA+ ecosystem token trading pairs.
The specific differences between the two mainly manifest in the following three aspects:
1. Different incentive targets and coverage
· $120,000 incentive: targeted at specific liquidity providers (LPs). Requires token market value over $1 million, holders over 2,000, etc., with an indirect impact on token price.
· Token buyback and burn: directly benefits all token holders. By reducing the total supply, it increases each holder’s share, covering all token holders.
2. Different impacts on the token economic model
· $120,000 incentive: an external stimulus. Uses subsidies to attract liquidity, but liquidity may quickly disappear once subsidies stop, unable to change the fundamental value of the token.
3. Different market psychology and signaling meaning
· $120,000 incentive: conveys the operational signal of “we are taking action!” “Spending money to boost volume,” pursuing short-term data.
· Token buyback and burn: conveys the strategic determination of “our interests align with everyone’s,” “deflation provides value,” pursuing long-term fundamentals and triggering stronger FOMO emotions $14 billion. $2 billion. The former is Aave's current TVL, the latter is AAVE's circulating market capitalization. Let's temporarily remove the crypto filter and just treat Aave as an internet finance infrastructure company—is it expensive now? A DeFi lending protocol managing $14 billion in assets, annualized protocol revenue (excluding staking earnings) exceeding $100 million, and cumulative lending volume exceeding $1 trillion, is valued at only about $2 billion. Even at $2 billion, the corresponding Protocol Revenue valuation is only about 19 times higher. Of course, Aave is neither a bank nor a publicly listed company, so it cannot simply use the bank's PE to be applied upward. But today's real question is: how much is AAVE worth? First, forget the so-called "leader halo." The crypto world is not short of leaders; Luna was once the leader in algorithmic stablecoins, with a $40 billion market cap dropping to zero in one week. Being a leader is not a get-out-of-jail-free game. 1. What exactly does Aave make money? What Aave does is actually very simple: some people have money and want to earn interest; some people lack money and are willing to pay interest. Aave connects both sides. But the biggest difference from banks is—banks need offices, account managers, risk control departments, and regulatory licenses...... And Aave's coreWaller backed out, shorts got trapped.
On the evening of September 3rd, BTC surged straight past $80,000, rising 4.19% in 24 hours to 80,462; ETH rose 3.44% to 2,484, and Dogecoin jumped over 6%.
The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statement "leaning towards keeping rates unchanged this month," causing the rate hike bets to drop from 63% to 60%. The US dollar index plunged below 99, and gold simultaneously rose nearly 2%—money is flowing back into "devaluation hedge" assets.
It's not that fundamentals changed, but the rate hike expectations have eased. The 80,000–83,000 range is the ETF trapped cost zone; whether it can hold depends on tomorrow night's nonfarm payrolls.What I care about now is not 80,000, but whether $BTC can hold steady.
Just checked $BTC, currently around $80,963, up 1.80% in 24 hours, having climbed back above $80,000.
I think there are two interesting things about this wave.
On September 2, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $101 million, after a net outflow of about $236 million the day before; funds are clearly being pulled back and forth.
Even more interesting, on September 3, it was reported that Strategy increased its BTC holdings by 4,603 coins. Institutions are still buying, indicating that around 80,000 there are buyers.
I won’t chase just because it’s back above 80,000 now. If 80,000 can turn from resistance into support, I’ll be more optimistic; if it falls back near 78,000, I’d rather wait.
What I fear most at this level is not a drop, but chasing in only to be hit back down by a big bearish candle.September's market was indeed lively, but there was always a sense of "everyone is smiling but sweating nervously." Have you noticed that while ETFs are still accumulating shares, the floating gains in short-term accounts are like sand in an hourglass—the tighter you grip, the faster they leak? My feeling these past two days is that the market is quietly changing its script. On the surface, BTC and ETH still firmly hold the boat of ETF demand. Big money hasn't left, but the sailors in the cabin have already started adjusting their positions for possible waves. Volatility is rising, and the signs of profit-taking are becoming more obvious at the minute level—this isn't panic, it's a tacit understanding of "cash in first, then wait for the next train." So my structure has also been subtracted, like organizing a wardrobe, keeping only the most convenient items: - The core positions are still BTC and ETH, which are the ballast stones responsible for providing certainty amid the noise. - The middle layer is reserved for stocks like SOL and XRP, which have their own ecosystem narratives, following the market but with greater flexibility. - For the outermost high-risk attempts, I only put KAITO and BEAT, and gave them very small weights. Honestly, I don't envy those who chase daily limit-ups. At this stage, it's about who can "wait" more. Behind every chase is a move to return the initiative to the market. I prefer to keep my bullets at those points where I "dare to catch when it falls, hold it when it rises." Here's a point everyone might overlook: what the market is trading right now isn't about "rising or falling," but about "how much the rate cut expectation has been priced in in advance."$CORE is really interesting. The core project team is completely dodging the main issues. First, the team said they destroyed 150 million tokens, but I just checked the contract, and the burn contract still shows the original 8 million plus. I don't know where they burned the tokens. Secondly, the current circulating supply is still over 1.4 billion, whereas before the incident it was over 1.1 billion. So the team's claim that the nodes issued an extra 150 million as rewards is also incorrect. Finally, the team said that executed transactions will not be rolled back, which means the actual extra 300 million tokens in circulation will continue to circulate. Even if 150 million were burned, the incident directly caused the current circulation to increase by 150 million. The 150 million should have been unlocked over 5 years, but now it was taken out and dumped on the market, causing everyone's tokens to devalue by 15% or even more. Are the two nodes really the only ones who got the 150 million tokens? From my on-chain observation, after the two nodes received the tokens, they systematically moved them through multiple new wallets repeatedly, programmatically flowing them into exchanges. Such organized and planned liquidation—who would believe it’s not premeditated? In short, whoever has the ability to pull this off is obviously the biggest beneficiary. The project team should answer directly.The key words for Ethereum's next phase are not just "cheaper," but also "more reliable." The Glamsterdam plan aims to reprice the cost of state creation and access, essentially making Gas more reflective of the actual computational burden. For developers, now is the time to review Gas estimation, limit transactions, and contracts that rely on old cost assumptions.
As mainnet fees decrease and account abstraction and cross-layer interoperability continue to advance, the competitive focus will shift from "which chain is faster" to "who can provide a safer, more natural user experience." The real opportunity belongs to teams that can turn protocol upgrades into product experiences. $ETH Robinhood Chain volume keeps climbing. Dune shows $1.89B in 24h DEX volume, and DeFiLlama puts 24h chain revenue near $3.38M, above most major chains. Built on Arbitrum's stack, it has generated licensing income for Arbitrum DAO, supporting ARB's revenue narrative. Memes like CashCat and Pons drive most of the heat, so the question is whether this becomes real trading and RWA demand or just hype and subsidies. OKX's built-in DEX now supports Robinhood Chain tokens with 0 gas fee perks.$During dinner, Bitcoin was still hovering around 77,000, sluggishly moving, then suddenly violently broke through 80,000. Honestly, this wave of market action tonight left me dumbfounded. Everywhere online, people are searching for reasons for the rise—ADP data, Standard Chartered news, every piece of information is being used as an excuse for the surge. I was going through each one trying to figure out what was really driving the market until I went back and reviewed the timeline, then the real cause was uncovered. The true trigger was the statement released by Waller at 8:30. You have to know Waller used to be a solid hawk, always firmly calling for tightening and rate hikes. Tonight, he directly softened his stance: if inflation continues to cool, at the September FOMC meeting, he tends to support no rate hike. When he first spoke, the market only had a small stir, but as the market slowly digested this news, the market exploded in the latter half of the night, and Bitcoin violently broke through the 80,000 mark. Here's the interesting part: his original words actually left room for maneuver. If inflation rebounds again, rate hikes remain an option. But the market ignored the latter risk warning, automatically filtering out the negative content and only picking up the good news they wanted to hear. Funds rushed in en masse, and Bitcoin followed the momentum to stand above 80,000. Honestly, news-driven markets are just this magical. One sentence can leverage a market worth hundreds of billions. Despite the celebration, I still keep a tight grip on my nerves. Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are the real big BOSS. Everything now is just pre-game speculation; whether the hype stirred up by the news can hold is really uncertain. I'm very curious whether this wave is the real start of the market or just emotional bait before the non-farm payrolls arrive ARB, ZORA, and TRUMP have recently been targeted by short sellers one after another. An investor who has experienced multiple long position losses reviewed their shift in strategy, bluntly stating that altcoin operations have turned from long to short. In their view, ARB previously dropped to 0.105 without exiting, then rebounded to the cost zone where they halved their position. Subsequently, the high-level funding rate shifted from positive to negative, suggesting that institutions and whales completed a long-short handover, prompting them to double their position again. With the unlocking period approaching, the rise is more of a follow-up rally. Currently, attention is on whether the 0.105 support will break. To prevent profit retracement, they plan to reduce their position by 30% at this level. The current average price is 0.11518, with a liquidation price at 0.12286. ZORA, due to an overall downward candlestick trend, was pumped today to 0.0082, seen as a short-covering fake rally, so they added half of the original position, with an average price of 0.008552 and a liquidation price of 0.012851. TRUMP, having failed to break the previous high, was shorted at 2.9, citing reasons including the controversial nature of family tokens, declining election support rates, and a large amount of upcoming unlocking. The average price is 2.941, with a liquidation price of 3.415. The investor emphasizes the need to clearly consider direction, stop-loss, and position-adding plans before opening a position. Accumulating experience during losses is equally important. Market competition is complex; although the short logic is smooth, rebound risks must still be watched. The above content is only a personal operation sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices fluctuate sharply; please assess risks cautiously. $ARB $TRUMPThe ISM services data supports the hawkish policy of Wosh, but Wosh has started to guide market expectations, and the market actually believes the latter? Strange! The August ISM services data was released, showing overall strength; detailed data shows strong new orders, weak employment, and prices paid higher than expected. This means tonight's combination is a mild stagflation mix: strong new orders + weak employment + high prices paid. This data implies that the US economy has resilience; although employment is weakening, there is no risk of a sharp slowdown, and inflationary pressure remains significant. This is clearly a mild stagflation combination, even more evident than Tuesday's manufacturing ISM data. Originally, it did not support weakening the probability of a September rate hike, but currently, CME shows the probability of a September rate hike falling from 60.2% to 50.4%, which puzzles me. If the data itself did not affect market expectations, then it must be tonight's Waller speech. In his speech tonight, Waller stated that the probability of a September rate hike is not set in stone, implying that Waller does not support a rate hike. This may be the main reason for the significant reduction in the probability of a September rate hike. However, if the market believes Waller, then a contradiction arises. Under Wosh's policy, there have been multiple calls for the Federal Reserve to reduce forward guidance, especially to reduce guidance and speeches regarding central bank policy. But Waller's speech clearly overturns Wosh's policy expectations, and more importantly, the market believes Waller's guidance. Does this mean that Wosh's so-called policy of reducing forward guidance has failed, and the market does not accept this policy, instead preferring the original Federal Reserve's expectation management ability? The Fed Just Changed the Bitcoin Setup
Bitcoin’s macro backdrop changed within hours.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he could support keeping rates unchanged this month if inflation continues to cool. Markets reacted quickly, with September hike expectations falling from roughly 63% to 48%.
That matters because crypto has been trading under a very different assumption.
A potential rate hike means tighter financial conditions, stronger pressure on risk assets and less room for speculative capital.
A pause removes part of that pressure.
$BTC responded by pushing back toward the $80K area, putting the market back in front of a major technical decision. Reuters identifies $82,793 as key resistance, with a sustained break potentially opening the path toward $90K.
But I am not calling a breakout yet.
My radar is watching whether $BTC can hold above $75K while buyers continue absorbing supply near $80K.
The next signal should come from $ETH.
If $ETH begins outperforming $BTC, the market could be transitioning from Bitcoin-led recovery into broader risk rotation.
Then I want to see $SOL, $XRP and $BNB confirm the move.
For Layer 1s, $SUI, $APT, $AVAX and $NEAR are worth watching for relative strength rather than simply following the market.
DeFi could provide another confirmation. $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE need stronger participation if liquidity is genuinely moving deeper into crypto.
Infrastructure remains interesting through $LINK and $ONDO, while $TAO and $RENDER could benefit if risk appetite expands toward higher-beta narratives.
The bigger signal is this:
The Fed does not need to cut rates for crypto to react positively. Sometimes removing the expectation of tighter policy is enough to change positioning.
But the inflation report due next week remains critical. Waller made it clear that hotter inflation could put the hike back on the table.
So I am watching price and macro together.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC
#AVGODipsSNOWPops
#RobinhoodChainRevenue Clarity bill 2026 legislative probability 15% Death or life decided on September 15! SEC Chair speaks out: Will the CLARITY bill pass this time?
Brothers, SEC Chair Atkins has come out again to hype, saying the Senate will hold a procedural vote on September 15, hoping to get the CLARITY bill to Trump's desk for signing by the end of the month.
Honestly, the industry's expectations are very low right now; Polymarket shows only about a 15% chance. The resistance isn't from the industry itself but purely political games—the Democrats want to use this to block Trump, since his family is deeply involved with crypto assets, and the conflict of interest clauses are unresolved.
Atkins insists it can pass mainly because the Republicans are unanimously supportive, and they only need to pull 4 Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold. Institutions like Coinbase have been lobbying hard in DC recently, but time is tight, and September has a lot of messy issues queued for votes.
Regarding price impact, if the bill passes, it's a long-term positive; BTC, ETH, and SOL's commodity status will be directly written into law, and ETF funds will continue to flow in. But if it fails on September 15, expect a short-term dump, especially for altcoins like SOL that are relying on ETF lifelines. Before the news lands, the market will likely price in pessimism early $SOL $ETH $BTC The real reasons behind this BTC/ETH rally
1. Tonight, Federal Reserve officials' speeches leaned dovish, and the market preemptively priced in rate cut expectations. US Treasury yields declined, leading risk assets to surge first. The market is front-running rate cut expectations on the eve of the non-farm payrolls.
2. $BTC, as the large-cap leader, led the way, with $ETH following due to beta elasticity; ZEC, being a small-cap coin, attracted concentrated short-term leveraged funds, amplifying its elasticity, so its gains far exceeded the major coins.
3. The 15-minute candlestick chart shows consecutive large bullish candles, MACD surged rapidly, indicating a short-term overbought condition.
Key risks
This is a preview rally based on expectations, not the actual non-farm payroll results.
Tomorrow is the real test:
• If tomorrow's non-farm data meets weak expectations, this rally has a chance to continue;
• If tomorrow's non-farm data exceeds expectations, the bulls who front-ran tonight will collectively take profits and sell off, causing a significant pullback, with small-cap ZEC experiencing an even harsher correction The 11-month suppression of SOPR has just been broken — a cycle reversal signal
"Every rise has seen profit-taking, but the market is holding. This indicates a significant breakthrough compared to the past 11 months." Read more $BTC #FOMC last data before Friday's nonfarm
Short-term holder profit-taking indicator (SOPR) — simply put: it looks at whether those who just bought coins recently are selling at a profit or loss.
Key signals:
Blue line (SOPR) breaks above 1.0 and continues rising = short-term players are selling for profit
But the gray line (coin price) does not fall and instead stabilizes = someone is stepping in, selling pressure is absorbed
Why is this a cycle reversal?
In the past 11 months, every time short-term players made a profit and ran (blue line surged), the coin price fell accordingly. But this time is different — the blue line hit a new high, yet the coin price stayed flat. This means more people are selling, but even more are buying; the market has shifted from "selling off at every small rise" to "the more selling, the more buyers step in."
Simply put:
Previously, everyone panicked to sell after making money; now new funds are coming in to support the bottom. Short-term selling pressure can’t push the price down, which is often a sign of a new upward wave. But don’t FOMO, this indicator is just a sentiment reference; actual positions still depend on structural levels 😂
Look at how the exchange rate keeps falling, how could BTC possibly fall? Big investment banks are pouring large amounts of exchange rate inflows into BTC, gold is a safe haven🚨 $SOL JUST RAN 47% IN ONE MONTH — BUT THE REAL STORY ISN’T THE PUMP. IT’S WHAT CHANGED UNDERNEATH. 👀
$SOL went from roughly $70 to $110 in August, delivering a 46.9% monthly gain and its strongest monthly performance since March 2024.
Even more important: after 10 straight months of declines, SOL finally closed a monthly candle in the green.
So is this just another relief rally?
I don’t think it’s that simple.
#DailyOrbit The crypto world went crazy tonight, summarizing a few reasons:
1. Federal Reserve officials released a "dovish" signal, cooling rate hike expectations. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently stated that if inflation continues to slow, he tends to support the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged. This statement was interpreted by the market as dovish, and traders immediately lowered their bets on Fed rate hikes (from 63% to 60%), greatly easing macro pressure on the market and boosting risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
2. The "Kimchi Premium" in the South Korean market makes a strong comeback, spreading FOMO sentiment. Bitcoin prices on South Korean crypto exchanges (such as Upbit) have shown a sustained positive premium compared to overseas platforms (the "Kimchi Premium"), maintaining this for 7 consecutive trading days. Due to strict capital controls in South Korea, retail funds can only compete on domestic platforms, pushing prices up. Historical data shows that a premium turning from negative to positive is usually a market confirmation of bullishness, triggering FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment in the market. $BTC $ETH $SOL From last night to today, gold has experienced a strong oversold rebound rally, starting its rise from the lowest point at 4282, with an overall increase of over 150 points. The short-term market sentiment is currently very bullish. However, everyone must remain clear-headed: this surge is not a true bullish trend reversal, but rather a short-term corrective rally driven by data.
The main trigger for this rebound was the ADP private payrolls data significantly missing expectations, which briefly eased market concerns about rate hikes. Yet, the market still expects a 62% to 66% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, so the pressure to raise rates has not truly eased. Therefore, relying solely on one weaker forward-looking data point is insufficient to completely change the tightening outlook, and gold still faces heavy resistance above.
The key factor that will determine gold’s next move is the nonfarm payroll data to be released this Friday. This data is crucial as it will directly decide the outcome of the Fed’s mid-September policy meeting. If the nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations will cool further, allowing gold’s rebound to continue; if the data is strong, rate hike expectations will heat up again, likely ending this short-term gold rally quickly and pushing prices back into the previous downward pressure trend.
From a technical perspective, after gold’s rebound stabilized above the 4400 level, it has gradually faced resistance from mid-term moving averages above, and the short-term upward momentum has clearly slowed. The short-term strength boundary lies roughly between 4410 and 4425; as long as gold holds above this range, the short-term trend remains strong, but if it falls below, a pullback and correction may occur. After this hundred-point surge, bullish momentum has clearly waned, and chasing higher at these levels carries significant risk.
The market overall remains in a tug-of-war consolidation pattern. On one side, high rate hike expectations and inflation concerns from oil prices continue to suppress gold prices; on the other, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and the oversold rebound support gold’s recovery. Short-term bullish and bearish forces are balanced, so before the key nonfarm data release, the market lacks the momentum for a decisive breakout in either direction and will likely continue to oscillate within a range.
Therefore, short-term trading should focus on steady range-bound strategies, avoiding chasing rallies or betting on a single direction. On dips, traders can follow the trend and buy short-term longs near the 4420-4440 support zone, with a stop loss at 4385 and targets around 4480 to 4500 resistance. On the upside, suitable high-level resistance zones can be used to initiate short positions; since gold has rebounded to around 4510-4520, a short can be taken here with a stop loss at 4545 and targets at 4450 and 4420. In any case, with the nonfarm data release imminent tomorrow, short-term volatility will remain erratic, so strict position control and stop losses are essential. Patience and range trading should be the focus while waiting for the data to see if the market can establish a clear bullish or bearish direction. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #日本长债收益率升至高位
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged past 3%, hitting the highest level since 1996, with the market sharply increasing the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. Previously, the low-interest yen carry trade was a major source of funding for global risk assets; now, with borrowing costs rising, carry trade funds face repatriation pressure.
BTC and ETH may not necessarily plunge immediately in the short term, but latent selling pressure is hidden. Historically, a sustained rise in Japanese bond yields tends to trigger deleveraging in global risk assets, making the crypto market prone to flash crashes.
This is part of a global liquidity contraction, not an isolated event. Don't just focus on the surface strength of the market; pay attention to the interplay between US Treasury yields and the yen exchange rate, and be wary of volatility caused by forced liquidations later on.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注
SanDisk has been added to the MSCI index.
After the market closed on August 31, the MSCI quarterly adjustment officially took effect, and SanDisk became one of the largest new constituents by market cap in this adjustment. On that day, SNDK closed up 5.5%, reportedly pushed up by passive buying at the close. On the platform, xSNDK is still hovering above $1500, so short-term sentiment is considered supported by index allocation.
But inclusion in MSCI is a short-term liquidity catalyst, not a change in long-term valuation logic. What really determines whether SanDisk can hold above $1500 is still the $31 billion expansion plan and whether AI storage demand can keep pace.
The market is stuck in the middle now—long-term customer agreements do lock in some revenue, but the capacity ramp-up in 2029 and NAND price trends are the biggest uncertainties. Passive money from index funds coming in is good, but it won't change the market's core judgment on the storage cycle and AI demand alignment.
For xSNDK, the buying from the MSCI adjustment has already been realized in the short term. Next, focus should be on the storage sector's own rhythm and capital flow. The direction hasn't changed, but don't expect a single index adjustment to rewrite the valuation logic.
What do you think?
$SNDK $SNDK Will SanDisk be able to hold above 1500 this time? SNDK's gains this year have already been very exaggerated, and market expectations for it are very high. Analyst target prices remain optimistic; for example, the average target of 23 analysts compiled on a certain site is about 2125, but the highest and lowest targets reach 3600 and 1000 respectively, showing huge divergence. Meanwhile, the biggest risk for US stocks today is not SNDK itself, but the macro environment: the US 10-year Treasury yield has approached 4.8%, and oil prices are also rising, which is unfavorable for high-valuation AI/semiconductor stocks. Currently, I still lean toward SNDK being able to hold 1500, but the "truly safe" level is not 1500, but regaining 1600. Holding 1500 = no damage; breaking through 1600 = strengthening; breaking below 1450 = caution; breaking below 1400 = short-term trend clearly deteriorates. 🎯 Now I only want you to focus on three numbers
No need to worry every day: "Should I look at Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, PPI, or FOMC?" Just watch: ① 10Y: 10-year US Treasury
4.80% ↑ → Danger
4.70% ↓ → Positive
4.60% ↓ → Very positive
It has now dropped from around 4.82% to about 4.75%, which is a good sign.
② BTC
$75.7K hold → Bullish
$80K breakthrough → Strengthening
$82.8K breakthrough → 🚀 New trend confirmation
Finally, here is the scenario I currently believe in most
If the following happens:
Nonfarm Payrolls cool down moderately
↓
Wages do not accelerate significantly
↓
CPI/PPI do not spike again
↓
Oil price falls back from around $95
↓
10Y falls below 4.70%
↓
Fed does not raise rates in September
↓
BTC breaks through $80K → $82.8K
Then I believe:
🚀 This is not just an ordinary rebound, but the true start of the "second bull market" I mentioned.
Currently, I assign this scenario:
About 70–75% probability.
Moreover, the market has already given the first positive signal today: Fed rate hike expectations decline + US Treasury yields fall + US stocks rebound + BTC retakes above $80K.
@天才交易员绿毛 @天才少女秋秋 🚨 $BTC JUST RECLAIMED $80K THE MARKET IS MOVING FAST.
Bitcoin has pushed back above $80,000, while $ETH has recovered above $2,450 as expectations for a Fed rate hike continue to fade.
And the leverage is getting flushed.
In just the last 60 minutes, roughly $86M in short positions have been liquidated.
This is exactly how quickly positioning can change in crypto.
Traders who were betting on further downside are now being forced out as price moves higher, and those liquidations can add additional buying pressure to the move.
The interesting part is that this isn't happening in isolation.
A shift in Fed expectations is giving risk assets some breathing room, while Bitcoin is reclaiming a major psychological level.
Now the question is whether BTC can hold above $80K rather than simply wick through it.
If buyers can defend the level and build momentum, the short squeeze could continue pushing price higher.
ETH reclaiming $2,450 is also worth watching, especially if strength continues to spread beyond Bitcoin.
But after a fast move like this, I wouldn't chase blindly.
Liquidations can accelerate both upside and downside.
The next few hours will be important.
$80K reclaimed.
$2,450 reclaimed.
$86M shorts liquidated.
Fed hike expectations falling.
Now we need to see whether this is the start of a stronger recovery or simply another sharp liquidity-driven move.
$BTC $ETH 📈$MSTR MicroStrategy might be more familiar to everyone in Chinese. It is the parent company of USDT. Let's talk about the company's drawbacks: financial opacity, and there is a risk of a crash when BTC prices fall. But when prices rise, none of that matters! Looking at historical trends, it once peaked at $543. With BTC breaking new highs this round, it's believed that it can also break new highs at 4 times the current price. Compared to $BTC breaking new highs and rising to $150,000–$200,000, which is just over twice, it still offers quite good value for money!
If you're worried about crash risks, you can prioritize $CRCL, the parent company of USDC, which is financially transparent and less worrisome about crash risks.Main Reasons for Bitcoin's Rise Today (2026-09-03)
Today, BTC rebounded from the intraday low near 76000, showing a corrective rise driven by a combination of improved macro expectations, oversold rebound, and capital replenishment. There was no sudden major positive news; this is a recovery rally driven by the resonance of sentiment and technical factors.
1. Macro: Cooling of Fed rate hike expectations (most crucial)
US ADP employment data missed expectations, leading the market to lower the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell, and the US dollar index weakened.
The decline in Treasury yields means lower risk-free returns, making investors more willing to embrace high-risk assets like Bitcoin; a weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated crypto assets more likely to rise. The market is now focused on tomorrow's nonfarm payroll data, which will again reshape rate hike expectations and directly impact BTC's subsequent direction.
2. Technical: Short-term bottom-fishing rebound after overselling
The previous day, BTC quickly dropped to 76000, a recent key psychological support level. Many short-term short positions hit stop losses, triggering short covering (short position closing = buying), which drove a rapid price rebound.
- Key support: $76000, today's low just tested this level, with strong buying support
- Short-term resistance: $79500-80000, where a large amount of trapped selling pressure has accumulated, making it difficult to break through in one go.
3. Market sentiment: Risk appetite warms, broad market rise
US stocks and gold both strengthened simultaneously, global risk asset sentiment recovered, and the crypto market broadly rose. Ethereum and major altcoins followed suit, pushing Bitcoin higher.
ETF funds did not see explosive large inflows; it was more a battle of trading funds on the market rather than a large-scale institutional entry driving a major rally.
$BTC
1. If tomorrow's nonfarm data is significantly strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and BTC will face renewed pressure and decline;
2. This is a corrective rebound after a decline, not the start of a new bull market. The heavy selling pressure around the $80,000 level means there could still be repeated fluctuations after the rebound;
3. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; news and leveraged liquidations can cause rapid price swings. #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Robinhood chain trading volume surges wave after wave, with $ARB becoming the biggest winner. The reason is simple: the Robinhood chain is built on Arbitrum, and net income has to share 10% with the Arbitrum ecosystem, meaning the busier the chain, the more $ARB earns passively. Previously, speculation on ARB was about the Layer2 story, but this time the Robinhood chain is genuinely working for $ARB, with revenue sharing written into the mechanism.
Initially, volume was propped up entirely by Meme, which some called hollow, but later tokenized stocks also took off, making the structure healthier than when it first launched. This wave isn't just pure sentiment; the foundation is solid, but the premise is that the chain's volume must hold steady. If volume cools down, no matter how attractive the revenue narrative is, it remains just paper wealth. #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC $CORE official has completed the v1.0.26 hard fork, fixing the reward loophole, burning 150 million excess minted tokens on-chain, permanently removing them from the total supply. User assets will not be confiscated or rolled back, and staking rewards will resume in 48 hours.
In simple terms, the bug-caused extra minted tokens have been destroyed, and there will be no more arbitrary minting in the future, which is a solid positive.
However, there is still an important issue:
Only the tokens minted due to the loophole were destroyed; the over 90 million tokens that were previously unlocked and scattered across thousands of wallets will not be reclaimed.
The most important factor remains the opening of deposit and withdrawal channels on exchanges.
Once these channels open, if these scattered wallets transfer large amounts of tokens to exchanges, the sell pressure will still suppress the market.
This rally is a pulse rebound triggered by news, not a trend reversal.
Do not blindly buy the dip just because of the burn. Treat the rebound primarily as a shorting opportunity. Whether long or short, always use stop-loss orders, and focus on monitoring on-chain transfer data after deposit and withdrawal channels open. The bears are completely overwhelmed and crying out loud😭! BTC violently surged 4.37%, with shorts liquidated for $250 million in 4 hours
Tonight's market move can only be described as violent.
BTC directly launched a strong counterattack from the low of 76925, reaching a high of 80945, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 4%, firmly reclaiming the 80,000 level. The most direct cost of this surge is the complete washout of the bears, with the market resembling a bloodbath.
The data is clear: in just one hour, $128 million was liquidated across the network, with shorts accounting for $116 million; in four hours, short liquidations totaled $250 million, and 24-hour short liquidations reached $370 million. Over 110,000 accounts were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation hitting $5.265 million. This short squeeze was extremely fierce.
Many wonder about the core reason behind this sudden surge; the market logic is actually very clear.
The most direct trigger was the sudden cooling of Fed rate hike expectations. Previously, the market bet on a soaring probability of a September rate hike, causing BTC to fall from 80,000 down to the 76,000 range, with overall sentiment remaining weak. Last night, dovish comments from Fed officials indicated that with inflation continuing to ease, rates would likely remain unchanged this month, causing the market to instantly reprice the rate hike risk.
Bad news turned good, with US stocks and gold rebounding simultaneously. As a high-risk asset, the crypto market naturally saw a strong recovery.
At the same time, escalating geopolitical conflicts further boosted the market. The Middle East situation remains tense, pushing oil and gold higher. Bitcoin’s digital gold safe-haven attribute was fully activated, attracting massive safe-haven funds into the market, creating strong resonance with macro positive factors.
Liquidity also warmed up, with BTC spot ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding $100 million again yesterday, and leading institutions continuously buying to support the market. Coupled with the upcoming key vote on US crypto regulatory legislation, market expectations for industry compliance are heating up, providing solid fundamental support for this rebound.
Much of last night’s surge was driven by a short squeeze. A massive amount of short positions had accumulated in the 76,000 to 77,000 range. Once the price broke through key resistance, shorts were forced to close positions en masse, creating a positive feedback loop of rising prices triggering more liquidations, which in turn pushed prices even higher. This is the core reason for the extreme V-shaped reversal.
Looking at on-chain chip structure, a large amount of turnover chips settled in the 75,000 to 80,000 range, forming a solid bottom support at this stage. The market’s average holding cost is concentrated around 76,350. Last night’s price retraced close to this cost line, with buying pressure directly supporting the bottom, making the reversal move fully justified.
However, a reminder: a rebound does not mean the trend has completely reversed, so don’t get overly excited.
There is still heavy selling pressure above, with millions of long-term holding chips accumulated in the 83,000 to 86,000 range, all waiting to be freed at higher levels, acting as resistance. Moreover, the risk of a Fed rate hike in September has not been fully eliminated and remains relatively high. Combined with continued weak overseas capital demand, the market cannot simply rise blindly in one direction.
In short, this move is a recovery rebound jointly driven by improving macro expectations, capital inflows, and a short squeeze.
Although shorts were heavily liquidated, the pressure above and macro uncertainties remain.
Holding above 80,000 is just the first step. Whether it can hold and continue to break through depends on the final release of nonfarm payroll data and the Fed decision.
The real decisive battle between bulls and bears is just beginning.
$BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 As of the week ending August 29, initial jobless claims reached 206,000. Market expectation was 205,000, but the previous value was slightly revised up from 203,000 to 204,000. In short, that's an extra 1,000. You can't find fault with the most common problems. Over the past year, initial claims have mostly hovered between 200,000 and 230,000. Companies neither conduct large-scale layoffs nor rush to hire people. Economists call this a 'no hiring, no layoffs' labor market. The continued hiring side is even more interesting. In the week ending August 22, the figure recorded 1.779 million, below the market expectation of 1.795 million This shows that the unemployed are finding new jobs faster—not because they can't find jobs, but because job changes are smooth. Looking at both data together, layoffs haven't worsened, and the pace of reemployment hasn't stalled. The labor market is still holding up, but this hasn't eased the pressure for a rate hike in September. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September is still hovering between 66% and 68%. The real driver of rate hikes isn't employment, but inflation expectations pushed by soaring oil prices. The real test is Friday's nonfarm rolls. Initial and renewal is just the appetizer—nonfarms are the main course. If the August nonfarm payrolls are strong The probability of rate hikes still needs to surge. If the data is weak, the market may reassess the rate hike path. Initial requests for renewal are not important; what matters is Friday's non-farm payroll $BTC $ETH $SNDK #FOMC前最后一组数据: This Friday's non-farm payrolls #财报观察员: Broadcom's earnings beat expectations, Snowflake raises guidance #Robinhood链放量, ARB revenue narrative heats up 10-year US Treasury yield hits a nearly 3-year high! Should BTC and ETH be cautious next?
A signal that many in the crypto community tend to overlook has arrived:
🇺🇸 The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.814% intraday,
reaching the highest level since November 2023.
Why is this data important?
Because the Treasury yield essentially serves as the "anchor" for global asset pricing.
Now that yields continue to rise, there are several pressures behind it:
① Inflation concerns are heating up again
Oil prices near $95, and rising energy prices may push inflation higher again.
② Expectations for Fed rate cuts are weakening
The market is even starting to price in the possibility of a rate hike in September.
③ US fiscal deficit and bond issuance pressure
Both government and corporations are heavily financing, maintaining pressure on long-term bond supply.
What does this mean for Crypto?
Simply put:
Risk-free rate ↑ → Cost of capital ↑ → Risk appetite ↓
So BTC, ETH, and high-beta assets like Nasdaq will face short-term pressure.
Pay special attention to a key level:
10-year Treasury yield at 5%
If it really breaks through 5%, the market may undergo another round of asset valuation repricing.
But looking at it from the opposite angle:
If subsequent employment and inflation data weaken, the Fed turns dovish again, and Treasury yields fall, risk assets might actually see a wave of recovery.
So don’t just focus on BTC prices now.
The real big money is watching the Treasury yields. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $ZEC hit a new high, but I’m not chasing this peak, and the reason lies in the funding rate.
The numbers are clear: reaching 917.54 is the highest since listing, current price 911.09, 24h +12.51%. One year +2091.7%, ninety days +134%, thirty days +79.9%. The gains themselves are indisputable.
The issue is who is pushing it. Contract 24h volume is $1.148 billion, spot only $126 million, a ninefold difference; open interest is $516 million. This peak wasn’t driven by spot buying but built up by leverage, and the leveraged position is also retreating quickly.
More importantly, the funding rate has turned negative at -0.0018%. Perpetual contracts are trading at a discount, not a premium, indicating that there aren’t as many longs chasing at this price as imagined; instead, shorts are entering. We backtested nine sets of negative funding rate samples ourselves, and prices tend to continue falling afterward, not the so-called short squeeze.
In the next 48 hours, I expect a pullback to around 850 first. The observation point is whether spot volume can catch up. Conditions to turn bullish: funding rate returns positive, and spot volume reaches over 30% of contract volume. *$CORE tears apart the biggest paradox in crypto: decentralization vs control 👀*
You hit the nail on the head with this question
*Core contradiction*
If *validators can vote to increase the supply cap*,
then today's 2.1B $CORE could become 21B+ tomorrow
In that case, "fixed supply" becomes an empty phrase.
*Scarcity = can be diluted with just one vote*
*Two camps' views*
*1. Supporters: Flexibility > rigidity*
- Can respond quickly when there's a vulnerability or need for growth
- PoS governance is meant to let the community decide, not be set in stone
- Bitcoin has also changed code before, just never touched the 21M
*2. Opponents: This is centralization*
- Fixed supply only matters if it's "immutable"
- Today you can vote +150M, tomorrow +15B
- How is this different from fiat "printing money"? 😂
- Institutions and retail buy into "code is law," not "rule by humans"
*In summary*
`Variable supply cap = not a scarce asset`
`Variable supply cap = governance token`
$CORE's v1.0.26 burning of 150M is a good thing, but if this "burn + mint" switch remains in validators' hands, the market will keep discounting it
This is also why $BTC's narrative is the strongest. Because no one can vote to change 21M to 42M
Do you think $CORE needs to write the supply cap in the future $BTC and other major cryptocurrencies rose,
while $SNDK, $MU and other storage sector stocks fell.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller said in an event interview at 8:30 PM:
The interest rate decision will "largely depend on" the August inflation data to be released next week,
and rate hikes will only be considered if inflation is too high.
This is a dovish signal released,
and the market subsequently lowered the Fed rate hike probability bet from 63% to 60%.
Major cryptocurrencies surged.
However, the US semiconductor sector plummeted.
Why is that?
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo, in an interview with CNBC, signaled an increase in semiconductor tariffs:
— Chip manufacturers building plants in the US will be exempt from tariffs,
otherwise, exports to the US will be subject to additional tariffs,
with the goal of raising the US domestic chip production share to 40%-50%.
This directly impacts South Korean memory chip giants—Samsung and SK Hynix,
whose core production capacity is in South Korea.
Once tariffs are implemented,
export costs will rise sharply.
This also dragged down Micron, SanDisk, and Qualcomm, all falling sharply.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell to 98.72.
These two American men
have influenced the entire market sentiment tonight.2026 Monthly Nonfarm Payroll Trends: January 160,000 → February -156,000 → March 214,000 → April 148,000 → May 63,000 → June 20,000 → July -23,000.
The trend line steps down month by month, turning negative in July. August is theoretically expected to have a technical rebound (due to the very low base in July), but the rebound strength will be limited — May and June data were revised down by 103,000, indicating previous data was inflated.
Tomorrow's baseline nonfarm scenario (about 50% probability): 30,000–60,000
Reason: ADP weakening continuously + initial jobless claims rising + JOLTS job openings declining, three indicators resonating to point to weak growth. The low base of -23,000 in July will bring a technical rebound, but the rebound magnitude is limited. The highest probability is in the 30,000–60,000 range.
If 30,000–60,000 (baseline): the probability of a rate hike falls from 62% to 48–55%, gold rises slightly, BTC may rebound to around 85,000, but the magnitude is limited, and the market continues to wait for the CPI direction on September 11.The CLARITY Act is expected to heat up, with market benefits and cautious capital forming a game of tug-of-war
Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. SEC, stated in an interview that the CLARITY Act is expected to be implemented this month. This act will clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, establishing clear industry standards for trading platform operations, token issuance, and institutional capital allocation. In the long term, it can effectively reduce regulatory uncertainty in the crypto industry, representing a major benefit at the industry level.
However, despite the positive policy expectations, market capital remains cautious, with short-term large holders choosing to actively reduce risk exposure. Large holder Garrett Jin closed out 276 BTC long positions, pocketing $210,000 in profits, while still maintaining a total position of $123 million, showing a pattern of taking profits while moving forward.
Compared to BTC, the selling pressure signal for ETH is more prominent. An institution transferred 39,500 ETH to multiple exchanges in a single day, equivalent to $95 million, indicating potential selling risk; meanwhile, a ShapeShift whale moved 2,759 ETH to a new address without transferring to exchanges, so there is no immediate direct selling pressure.
The current core market contradiction is clear: regulatory policy expectations continue to improve, but major funds have not entered the market in large scale. The CLARITY Act mainly addresses the long-term institutional framework. Whether $BTC can hold above the 80,000 mark still depends on ETF capital flows, Federal Reserve macro policies, and spot buying strength. Policy can only open the institutional entry channel; only sustained inflows of real capital can turn expected benefits into a lasting upward trend.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 From the market perspective, $BTC's 50-day moving average is approaching a crossover above the 200-day moving average, with a golden cross about to form. USDT's market share is simultaneously weakening, indicating that some funds may be flowing back from stablecoins into crypto assets. Both technical structure and capital flow are signaling bullish tendencies.
The macro outlook is also warming up. Arthur Hayes pointed out that if Japan's GPIF adjusts its asset allocation, it could trigger a new round of liquidity expansion. However, the "money printing spree" is still hypothetical at this stage. The real determinants of BTC's direction remain interest rates, the US dollar, and global financing costs.
Institutional involvement continues to increase. Standard Chartered Bank has extended BTC and ETH spot trading services from the UK to the UAE, making it more convenient and compliant for traditional funds to buy crypto assets. Willy Woo suggested that BTC's cycle might shift from a 4-year cycle to a 6 to 8-year cycle. This does not mean the bull market is over; rather, after ETFs and institutional funds enter, the cycle lengthens and the market no longer revolves solely around halving events.
News is generally positive for the medium to long term but will not directly drive a breakout in the short term. The golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market share may only be a temporary correction in risk appetite. Going forward, sustained net inflows into spot and ETF funds and BTC reclaiming the $80,000 to $83,300 range are needed to confirm the establishment of a new trend.
$BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Rate hikes are a false negative, while rate cuts are the real test: many people have completely misunderstood the macro logic.
The entire internet is nervously awaiting the Federal Reserve's move in September. Many instinctively think "rate hikes will cause a crash, while rate cuts will save the market," but looking at the true historical records, the conclusion is counterintuitive and surprising.
Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve's first rate hike after ending a rate cut cycle usually only triggers a brief pullback within a month, after which the market gradually stabilizes. The average returns three months or even a year after a rate hike often outperform the long-term average.
Many people don't understand this logic because they treat the direction of interest rates as the sole switch for market trends.
The reason the Federal Reserve dares to hike rates again is fundamentally that the economy is resilient enough and corporate profits are still expanding. Such rate hikes merely tighten valuation's superficial heat and do not break through the foundation of the real economy. On the contrary, the first rate cut that many eagerly await often comes as an emergency rescue forced by economic slowdown or crisis. When corporate profits collapse, that slight liquidity easing cannot hold back the downward pull of recession.
For traders in the market, the most fatal losses often do not come from rate hikes but from blind labeling thinking. Panicking and selling before a rate hike lands, or rushing to lever up and bottom-fish at the start of a recession and rate cut, usually results in heavy losses.
Understanding this pattern, when facing the upcoming decision-making battle, are you frozen in fear by rate hike expectations, or calmly positioning yourself after seeing through the illusion?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The peculiarity of the August non-farm payrolls lies in the coexistence of cooling employment and rebounding inflation.
The market's pricing of the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 60%-66%, which means that regardless of whether the non-farm data is stronger or weaker, it may trigger a "reverse" market reaction — no longer simply "bad news is good news."
Impact on U.S. stocks
JPMorgan's market intelligence team believes that the S&P 500 is more likely to weaken after the non-farm payrolls release.
Scenario 1: Non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations (increase of over 100,000)
Employment resilience combined with high inflation will further raise expectations for a September rate hike.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields will pressure overvalued tech stocks, with the Nasdaq being more sensitive than the Dow.
The logic is "good news is bad news" — strong employment means more consumption and inflation pressure, which drags down the stock market.
Scenario 2: Non-farm payrolls meet expectations (increase of 50,000-60,000)
This is the "mild cooling" the market most hopes to see.
Employment is still expanding but at a very slow pace, insufficient alone to determine September's policy direction; the Federal Reserve still needs to wait for the CPI data on September 11. U.S. stocks may remain volatile with unclear direction.
Scenario 3: Non-farm payrolls show negative growth again or near zero growth
The market will not simply interpret this as positive.
If employment weakens rapidly combined with high inflation, stagflation logic will be triggered — weak data becomes a new source of risk.
The market may shift focus from "whether the Fed can pause rate hikes" to "whether the U.S. economy is accelerating its downturn," increasing recession trades and putting pressure on U.S. stocks. $SNDK $NVDA The 50-day moving average of $BTC is approaching a crossover above the 200-day moving average, signaling an imminent golden cross pattern. Meanwhile, the market share of USDT is weakening simultaneously, indicating that some funds may be flowing back from stablecoins into crypto assets. Both technical and capital aspects are beginning to release bullish signals.
Macro expectations have also warmed up. Arthur Hayes stated on X that Japan's GPIF adjusting its asset allocation could bring a new round of liquidity expansion. However, the "money printing spree" is still just speculation at this point. The real factors affecting BTC's trend remain interest rates, the US dollar, and global funding costs.
Institutional entry continues. Standard Chartered Bank has expanded BTC and ETH spot trading services from the UK to the UAE, meaning traditional capital channels for buying crypto assets have become more convenient and compliant. Analyst Willy Woo believes BTC may shift from a 4-year cycle to a 6-8 year cycle. This does not mean the bull market is gone; rather, with ETFs and institutional funds entering, the market may be extended longer, and the rhythm of price movements will no longer revolve solely around halving events.
Overall, the news leans toward medium- to long-term improvement, but BTC will not break out immediately. The golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market share may also be just a short-term risk appetite rebound. Only with continuous inflows of spot and ETF funds, and BTC firmly standing in the $80,000 to $83,300 range, can a new upward trend be truly confirmed.
$BTC $ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 ISM suddenly surged to 55.4: What BTC really fears is not a strong economy, but "growth not weak, inflation not falling"
The ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, exceeding expectations and hitting a multi-month high; more importantly, new orders jumped directly to 60.9, the highest since 2023, indicating that U.S. demand remains resilient.
But there is a contradiction hidden in the data:
Employment sub-index is only 47.8, while input prices are as high as 72.6.
In other words, companies are cooling down on hiring, but demand and price pressures remain firm.
This is the hardest for the Federal Reserve to handle because it neither gives a reason to "stop because employment collapsed" nor signals that "inflation is already safe."
The market currently still assigns about a 64% probability of a rate hike in September, with the real judge left to Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
If nonfarm payrolls are strong and wages are strong, BTC's 77,000–80,000 pressure zone may continue to be under pressure; conversely, if employment clearly slows down, the rate hike trade may quickly cool off.
ISM gave no direction but raised the importance of Friday's nonfarm payrolls to a higher level. The most dangerous thing now is not bad data, but data continuing to be "not bad enough." $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC Bitcoin has risen to $80,900, very close to the $82.8K resistance zone — the May peak and also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci zone. Reuters reports that BTC has just experienced a rally of about 30%, while surpassing the 21, 55, 100, and 200-day MAs, indicating that the bullish structure is marked. It's worth noting that the momentum doesn't just come from crypto: Treasury yields cooled, the USD weakened, and expectations of a Fed rate hike fell to around 50% after Waller's dovish speech. Current data shows that there is a high probability that BTC will continue to head towards the $82.8K area. Always saying Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme? Come on, don't talk nonsense. A Ponzi scheme relies on centralized manipulation, promised returns, and newcomers paying off earlier investors; when funds dry up, it collapses. BTC has no operator backing it, no customer service groups, no dynamic yield model; its supply rules are hardcoded in the protocol, the ledger and code are verifiable, transfers depend on market consensus and key control, and profits or losses are borne by the user. Comparing it to a pyramid scheme is indeed a conceptual mix-up.
Of course, this doesn't mean there are no risks. Volatility, regulation, on-chain security, custody errors, and leveraged liquidations all truly exist. Many people criticize BTC, but what they really criticize are high-leverage contracts, shady platforms, and zero tolerance for drawdowns—not the underlying asset itself. Holding spot long-term and speculative trading are completely different approaches.
Now it resembles a global liquidity-sensitive hybrid of risk asset and digital scarce commodity. After institutions enter through channels like ETFs, macro interest rates and the dollar cycle will have a more pronounced impact. You can be bearish or think its valuation is purely consensus-based, but calling it a “Ponzi” is too crude. Understanding its mechanism before judging is more useful than emotional labeling. $BTC
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Reviewing last night's phenomenal meme on Robinhood — code $JINQIAN, named Money Mushroom. In one hour, it skyrocketed from zero to a market cap of 70 million USD; "to the moon" was the ultimate dream for all the bros, beyond any description. Then the crash came, burying countless bag holders. I lost 60% and cut my losses to exit. Was this a great scam or a great manipulation? My answer: a great manipulation. Countless bros who got rekt, including myself, were willing sacrifices blinded by greed. --- 1. Background: An explosively sexy script The whole thing started on August 31 when crypto trader Rune revealed on Twitter that he spent about 1.8 million USD OTC to buy 37.4% of a small-cap Nasdaq company — "market cap 4.8 million, stock price $0.12, short interest 92.3%." He claimed he would tokenize this stock on the Robinhood Chain + issue paired meme coins, using on-chain funds to buy the underlying stock to squeeze shorts. Veterans from the GameStop battle would be instantly hooked by this script. --- 2. Timeline: From skyrocketing to a dismal exit - 9/2 5:34 AM: Someone deployed $FAMI on the Robinhood ChainMarket Brief: Case Review of Short Squeeze in Early Morning
Market Overview
Traders simultaneously opened short positions on ETH and BTC, entering ETH at 2375 and BTC at 77005. In the early morning, a sudden surge with increased volume triggered stop losses, resulting in a total loss of over 2400 U. The market broke above the 2400 whole number level and the upper Bollinger Band, causing a large number of shorts to be stopped out in a cascade.
The KDJ-J technical indicator surged to 108, entering the overbought zone. The view is that if the 2420 resistance cannot be effectively broken, there is a possibility of a wick down, making it unsuitable to chase higher.
Market Logic
Liquidity in the crypto market is low in the early morning, allowing small funds to create large spikes easily, which can quickly trigger a batch of well-placed stop losses. This looks like a "precise sniper shot" but is essentially chip harvesting under low liquidity.
Subjective judgment like "the price is high, it should fall" leads to opening shorts without leaving enough room for upward error. In a choppy market, guessing the top and shorting can easily lead to short-term squeezes.
Even if indicators enter overbought territory, it does not mean an immediate pullback. Overbought conditions can persist for some time, so one should not rely solely on a single technical indicator to confirm a reversal.
Trading Insights
1. During low liquidity periods in the early morning, leverage position risks are amplified. When placing stop losses, consider spike disturbances and avoid setting stops near whole number levels.
2. Do not short simply based on a "price feels expensive" intuition; in a choppy market, overvaluation can continue to push higher.
3. Overbought only indicates high heat, not an immediate drop. Indicators should be used as an aid, not the sole basis for entry.