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#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
The script has turned another page,
Last night, just as the US-Iran conflict escalated, Walsh still held firmly to a hawkish stance. $BTC once dipped to a low of $76,762, and $ETH also fell below the $2,400 mark. However, tonight's ADP nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly "softened"—August ADP increased by only 38,000, below the expected 48,000, marking the slowest growth since January this year—the market sentiment immediately reversed 180 degrees.
The 30-year US Treasury yield quickly dropped, US stock futures turned positive, BTC rebounded to around $77,200, ETH recovered to $2,409, with 24-hour declines narrowing to 1.9% and 2.6% respectively. SanDisk ($SNDK) also bucked the pre-market trend, rising from a drop of over 2% to a peak gain of 2.5%.
Connecting the dots over the past two days, the pattern is clear: geopolitical tensions push oil prices up → rate hike expectations rise → risk assets come under pressure; weak economic data → rate hike expectations retreat → risk assets breathe a sigh of relief. The pace of switching directions is so fast it’s almost impossible to adjust positions in time. The rhythm is tight, and the face changes faster than flipping a book.
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 Bitcoin ETF Money Is Leaving. But It May Not Be Leaving Crypto. The first signal from September looked bearish. $BTC slipped below $77K as oil surged, Treasury yields climbed and geopolitical risk pushed investors away from risk assets. But then the capital flows got interesting. Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $236.5M in net outflows on September 1. At the same time, Ethereum ETFs recorded roughly $11M in inflows, XRP about $14.4M, Solana about $10.2M, and Hyperliquid around $1.8M. That is not a brBitcoin and Ethereum doing this won't cause an A-share crash, right? The market collapse is abnormal.
In the short term, it really looks like leverage is being washed out, not just a simple pullback. BTC is watching the 75000 area, ETH is looking for support around 2350; if it breaks below, it means long positions are still being targeted; when contracts are crowded, only after the spike and liquidation can the bottom be discussed.
Macroscopically, non-farm payroll expectations are diverging, September rate hikes/hawkish pricing are retreating, US Treasuries and the dollar are suppressing risk assets, US stocks like storage and SNPK are repeatedly plunging, liquidity expectations tighten first in crypto. On-chain hotspots and crypto-stock memes may be lively, but they can't overshadow the main theme of interest rate trading.
Now don't guess "whether or not," watch volume and funding rates: a drop on low volume is digestion, a break on high volume is continued testing; rebounds that don't hold key areas are considered repairs, not reversals. Positioning is more important than opinions, leverage should be reduced first.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 There is a group of people buying Sandisk, and another group selling it; the market shows that it is very likely different institutions behind this. I checked outside, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this month is over 60%? It seems the institution buying leans toward the view that this month's data won't be overheated, and the Fed is not in a hurry to raise rates. Personally, I think if the data isn't overheated, the Fed still has about a 30% chance of raising rates once by the end of the year. I'm really curious how the probability of a rate hike this month reached 60%; could it be intentional?? $BTC $SNDK On Wednesday, assets related to the "devaluation trade" fell again. Bitcoin dropped below $77,000, down more than 1% from 24 hours ago; meanwhile, gold retreated to $4,300 per ounce. The decline occurred as global bond yields continued to surge. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.81%, up 0.38% in the past 24 hours, and the dollar index strengthened to 99.85—further pressuring risk assets. Brent crude oil prices were slightly lower, hovering just above $90 per barrel. After Warsh delivered a hawkish speech, the probability of a Fed rate hike rose to 68%. According to CME FedWatch, traders currently assign a 68% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points later this month. The benchmark rate is currently in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. This probability has steadily climbed since Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole—about 36% before his speech, rising to 58% over the weekend, 64% on Tuesday, and now 68%. The indicator has been operating within the 60% to 70% range, which historically the Fed uses to validate market expectations rather than catch the market off guard; it is also close to the "priced in" level. Higher expectations create headwinds for stocks and assets lacking inherent yields, such as gold and Bitcoin. Higher risk-free rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, which is the direct channel behind the decline of these two asset classes. The "devaluation trade" is currently#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒
Before Broadcom's earnings report, let me pour some cold water
Broadcom reports earnings after the market closes tonight, and expectations are too high, so it's wise to stay cautious.
How high are the earnings expectations? Revenue is expected to reach 29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year; AI semiconductor revenue target is 16 billion, doubling year-over-year. It sounds impressive, but these are guidance figures previously given by management and have long been priced in by the market.
The real focus should be on three points:
First, the 16 billion AI revenue is a must-defend baseline; falling below this number would be disastrous.
Second, the Q4 guidance is the main event. Morgan Stanley bluntly said: the market is currently betting on AI revenue reaching 150 billion in fiscal 2027; if management only guides to 120 billion, no matter how good the quarterly report is, it won't matter. Last quarter was a lesson: earnings beat expectations but the stock price dropped 12% after hours.
Third, concerns about Google orders need to be addressed directly. Marvell just disclosed a TPU agreement with Google, raising market worries that Broadcom might lose some market share.
What is the options market betting on? Implied volatility shows about 8% one-sided movement after the earnings. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.48, with higher Call activity. A big player spent $5.51 million on a Call Spread targeting a price range of 540-560, indicating a bullish stance by large investors.
Long or short? At this position, the game is about expectations exceeding expectations. The stock price has only risen 7% this year, significantly underperforming peer $AVGO Small non-farm payrolls surprise! Employment hits an 8-month low, BTC gets a breather window
US August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 48,000, marking the weakest reading since the start of the year. In detail, hiring in goods manufacturing and professional services is contracting, wage growth at the low end continues to slow, and the labor market is truly cooling down. However, the Fed’s tone hasn’t fully softened yet; the inflation target remains the anchor, so the market is reluctant to bet directly on dovishness.
For BTC/ETH, short-term interest rate expectations are being suppressed, giving risk assets a temporary breather, but the path for September is still undecided; oil prices and geopolitical tensions are weighing on risk appetite, so the rebound feels more like a buffer than a trend reversal. Technically, BTC first looks to hold support near 77k; if it stabilizes, then recovery can be discussed. ETH follows BTC, remaining cautious below 2500.
The real verdict will come with Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Don’t add drama before the data; position sizing and stop-losses are more important than directional calls.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 The $BTC golden cross is indeed coming, and I don't deny that this has historically been a valid signal. But there's one detail many people haven't mentioned — in history, the golden cross usually appears after the price has already rebounded significantly from the bottom. This time is no different; BTC rose from 62K to 81K before the golden cross finally showed up. The signal is real, but the best buying opportunity may have already passed. I prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation before ta打在比特币身上的逆风并没有“落到”它身上，尽管它确实对主要传统资产造成了伤害。这种相对强势可能仍会遭遇来自韧性十足的美元指数的挑战$BTC WTI站上90美元，10年期收益率创2023年以来新高 据TradingView数据，WTI期货涨破90美元，本周累计上涨近9%。油价更高意味着通胀更多，也意味着美联储降息空间更小。 发达经济体中更长久期限的政府债券收益率仍在因财政担忧而持续飙升。美国10年期国债——它会影响全经济体的借贷成本——上涨10个基点至4.81%，为2023年以来最高水平。这会带来金融紧缩，降低在实体经济与市场中承担风险的动机。 这两项进展正在让股市感到紧张不安。标普500指数周一连续第三个交易日下跌，触及四周低点。随着油价反弹带来对能源进口国的宏观风险，亚洲股市也在流血。 黄金大幅回落，从每盎司4,700美元跌至4,300美元，跌幅发生在不到一周的时间内。 比特币对上周五下跌的后续跟进偏弱 比特币保持稳定。对上周五下跌3%并在7.7万美元下方徘徊的走势，后续承接乏力——最好的情况也只是平淡无奇——使得价格在7.6万到8万美元之间来回震荡 一个在逆风中还能站得住的市场，The 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $ETH have formed a golden cross. Looking back at history, every time this cross appeared at a bear market low, it was followed by a major rebound. The last time was in June 2025, which also saw a direct surge, and the previous cross led to about a 40% increase. Of course, it’s not a guaranteed signal; there was one instance when it appeared near a top. But this is definitely one of the signals I’m watching closely right now. $SNDK Can SanDisk hold steady after surging past 1500 this time? SNDK's gains this year have been quite remarkable, and market expectations have been pushed to very high levels. Analyst target prices remain optimistic, with an average target of about 2125 from 23 analysts compiled by a certain platform, but the range is wide—from a high of 3600 to a low of 1000, showing significant divergence.
However, the real risk that US stocks need to watch today may not come from SNDK itself. The US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.8%, and oil prices continue to rise, which is not favorable for the highly valued AI and semiconductor sectors.
Currently, I still lean towards SNDK holding at 1500, but the "truly safe" level is not 1500, but regaining and holding above 1600. Holding 1500 = structure intact; breaking through 1600 = trend strengthening; breaking below 1450 = start to be cautious; losing 1400 = short-term trend clearly weakening.
$BTC $ETH
#Pre-nonfarm data divergence, September rate hike expectations heating up
#Robinhood on-chain volume surge, crypto stock Meme sparks controversy
#Earnings watcher: Dell beats expectations, Broadcom and Snowflake take overBitcoin Has A September Problem. But This Time The Setup Is Different. $BTC is entering September after one of its strongest August performances in years. Bitcoin gained roughly 24% in August and pushed above $80K. Now it is back around $77K. And September is already testing whether that rally has real strength behind it. Historically, September has been one of Bitcoin’s weaker months. But history alone is not enough. The market structure has changed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a major sourceRobinhood Chain generated $1.92 million in protocol revenue in one day, with DEX daily trading volume continuously breaking historical records, exceeding $1.28 billion. Morgan Stanley directly raised HOOD's target price to $150, with the stock price already up more than 21% in August.
Looks great, right?
But think carefully: HOOD's current stock price is around $104, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 46. No matter how high Robinhood Chain's on-chain activity is, what is the actual efficiency of translating that into the company's real revenue growth? That is the key issue.
Moreover, in the prediction market, the probability of HOOD reaching $120 in September is only 43%—the market itself isn't that confident.
This round of "crypto stock Meme" rally—is it a value revaluation or just a brief liquidity premium frenzy? All I know is, every time Wall Street starts wildly pricing a story, it's often not far from retail investors stepping in to take the risk. #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 $ETH $BTC Today I opened gold and for a second thought: the market broke. The US and Iran are exchanging strikes again. Oil is already above $95. And gold, instead of a normal safe haven move, dropped to the $4,300 area — the lowest in more than three weeks. My first reaction was: "How come?" Then I looked a bit deeper. The problem is that this war simultaneously creates two completely opposite flows. On one hand — fear and demand for defensive assets. On the other — expensive oil → stronger inflationary pressure → higher yields →Many people still think "war = safe haven = bullish for BTC," but I advise you to throw away this old script. How is the market pricing the conflict now? Inflation. High energy prices in the Middle East → rising inflation → central banks dare not cut interest rates. Today, the Bank of Canada held steady for the seventh consecutive time, and central banks worldwide are uniformly hawkish, with the yen falling to 160, forcing authorities to intervene. When money becomes more expensive, no risk asseADP employment data fell short of market expectations, and this is not a one-time short-term disturbance; it will provide important guidance for this Friday's major nonfarm payroll data.
It is predicted that the nonfarm payroll data will most likely also fall short of expectations, further raising market expectations for rate cuts.
Subsequently, the crypto market will experience upward momentum driven by this major cycle of positive catalysts. If Bitcoin encounters resistance at the 78,000 level, it will enter a range-bound consolidation.
The more thoroughly the consolidation phase is completed, the stronger the subsequent upward momentum will be. 80,000 will not be the end point; 82,000 also has a very high probability of being reached. Stay patient and wait for the market to mature. $BTC $ETH #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The just-released August ADP employment data shows that the U.S. private sector added only 38,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 47,000 and also below the upwardly revised 46,000 in July, marking the slowest growth since January this year. More notably, manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services lost 16,000, with new jobs mainly concentrated in education and healthcare services. This means that the original logic of "waiting for nonfarm payroll verifiSmall Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise! Employment Hits 8-Month Low, BTC Gets a Breather
US August ADP employment increased by only 38,000, far below the expected 48,000, marking the slowest growth since January this year.
Key Data Points:
① Manufacturing and professional services sectors weakened across the board, with a clear cooling in the hiring market
② Momentum for wage growth in low-paying jobs has disappeared, now below pre-pandemic levels
③ Employment growth stagnates, but Federal Reserve officials still emphasize that "the top priority is inflation"
Impact on Cryptocurrencies:
① Weak ADP → marginal easing of rate hike expectations → short-term positive for BTC/ETH, possibly leading to a breathing space rebound
② However, the Fed remains focused on the 2% inflation target, so the September rate hike uncertainty remains
③ Geopolitical conflicts (with oil prices staying high) continue to suppress risk appetite, limiting rebound potential
Bottom line: Small Nonfarm Payrolls give bulls a breather, but the real direction depends on Friday's Nonfarm data. Hold your hands, wait for the shoe to drop.
$BTC $ETH
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注
Strait shipping risks are rising again, Brent crude oil has reached $92, and the market is repricing energy inflation risks. The continuous rise in oil prices will slow down the pace of inflation decline, indirectly limiting the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts.
BTC and ETH are no longer pure safe havens. Once inflation expectations rise and U.S. Treasury yields increase, crypto assets will face pressure and pull back, with the main market trend driven by macro factors. The gold market is showing divergence; in the early stages of conflict escalation, it will also be suppressed by interest rate logic and does not rise blindly.
Geopolitical news is repeatedly changing, and volatility caused by news can easily trigger stop-loss sweeps. Do not open positions directly based on geopolitical news; focus on subsequent changes in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. BTC ETH sudden crash? Bulls collectively jump off the cliff again
BTC quickly dropped from around 79,000 to near 76,700, ETH simultaneously lost 2,400, and a chain of liquidations within an hour cleared out leveraged longs. On the surface, it looks like a flash crash in the crypto market, but the real driver is macro: divergence in non-farm payroll expectations, September rate hike/hawkish pricing rebound, U.S. Treasury short-end and dollar suppressing risk assets, and the correlation between gold and BTC being used as a safe-haven comparison, with liquidity-sensitive assets taking the first hit.
On-chain/contract level, concentrated liquidations amplified the speed of the decline, but the root cause is not internal to crypto. Next, watch for support around 76k and ETH reaction between 2,350-2,400; if data continues to be strong, it may test lower liquidity zones. A rebound that doesn't hold key levels is considered a recovery, not a reversal. Position sizing and stop-losses are more important than guessing the bottom.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 September 4th, Friday, US nonfarm payroll data. Fed, gold, Bitcoin, and stock markets may see scenarios. Friday's US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) will be a key data point ahead of the Fed's September meeting. The market expects new jobs to be 55-60K, unemployment rate 4.1-4.2%. The response will depend on employment, unemployment rate, wages, and revised data. NFP below 30K: If unemployment is above 4.2% and wages are weak, lower rate hike expectations may be strengthened. The 2-year yield and DXY may decline. Support for gold, Bitcoin, and Nasdaq to rise. NFP 30-50K: If results fall short of expectations but the economy has not slowed sharply. And wages are weak, which still provides some support for the market. NFP 50-70K: If the result is close to expectations, it may have limited impact on Federal Reserve pricing. At that point, the focus will shift to wages, unemployment rates, and revised data NFP 70-100K: If the results are strong, unemployment is low and wages are strong, this could raise expectations for rate hikes. Yields and DXY may rise. Gold, Bitcoin, and Nasdaq will fall back NFP above 100K: if the data is clearly strong, especially if the unemployment rate is 4.1% or lower and wages remain strong, it could reinforce the Fed's hawkish outlook. This could further suppress gold, Bitcoin, and tech stocks. The key point is: NFP must be evaluated together with wages. Strong NFP + weak wages may ultimately lower rate hike expectations. Weak NFP + strong wages may indicate persistent inflationary pressures, which may reinforce the Fed$BTC $ETH have rebounded in the short term, but it's not stable yet. The reason for the rebound is that the small non-farm payroll data was originally expected by the market to be higher than last month, but now it is even lower than last month. Although the decline is not very large, it is still very good news. The big non-farm payroll data is therefore highly anticipated. $#加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
As listed companies like Strategy and Metaplanet continue issuing shares and bonds to expand their Bitcoin treasuries, the proportion of crypto assets on corporate balance sheets is soaring. With the implementation of MSCI's new round of rule consultations, crypto treasury companies are facing a major qualification test for mainstream stock indices, and the classic "coin hoarding flywheel model" by Seller is encountering strict institutional constraints.
1. Core contradiction: Are they operating enterprises or investment funds disguised as stocks?
MSCI's new screening framework no longer simply looks at the proportion of crypto assets but adopts a two-step testing mechanism:
1) First threshold: whether operating assets account for more than 50% of total assets;
2) If not met, enter the second round of five financial screenings: operating asset intensity, business cash flow, operating expenses, fair value volatility exposure of assets, and reliance on external financing. If four out of five are triggered, the company is classified as a "non-operating company" and directly excluded from global investable indices.
According to simulation backtesting: Strategy's Bitcoin assets account for nearly 99% of enterprise value, with software main business revenue accounting for a very low proportion, highly dependent on issuing new shares to finance coin purchases, directly hitting the red line of this rule; a batch of follow-up treasury companies like Japan's Metaplanet also fall into the high-risk list.The most important change in the market tonight is not a sudden surge in a particular altcoin, but that after BTC approached the $77,000 region again under macro risk pressure, altcoins began to show obvious structural differentiation. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy supply risks again, with Brent crude once nearing $95–97, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surging above 4.81%, and the US dollar strengthening. The market is re-trading the logic of "rising oil prices → inflation pressure → declining rate cut expectations." As a result, BTC fell below $78,000, and ETH simultaneously retreated to around $2,400. (Reuters) But it is worth noting: a market pullback ≠ the end of the altcoin rally. Currently, it looks more like after the first layer of funds withdraws, the market begins to seek a second layer of assets that "won't fall further, can absorb volume, and still have a narrative." The core question on the altcoin radar tonight is only one: Who shows relative strength when the market is falling? ⸻ 1. 🟢 Activation Radar｜UNI becomes the strongest sample worth watching tonight 🟢 $UNI｜Exceptionally strong against the trend UNI is currently around $6.23, with a 24-hour increase of about 8.5%, while BTC, ETH, and SOL remain in a downtrend during the same period. This kind of movement is more worth observing than a simple rise. Because overall market risk appetite has clearly declined, if UNI can maintain above $6 while BTC continues to be under pressure and volume continues to support it, then it belongs to a typical **"relatively strong in a weak market" structure.** Short-term focus: 6.00—Complete Analysis of OKX Delisting Rules: 8 Things You Need to Know from Token Hiding to Official Delisting
⚠️ This article only discloses the rules and does not constitute investment advice.
First, distinguish three things
Delisting on-chain earning/staking financial products ≠ Delisting spot trading pairs
Delisting spot trading pairs ≠ Immediate withdrawal suspension
Delisting financial products is product contraction, not token delisting or market exit
OKX handles tokens in two levels: 【Hidden Tokens】warning observation and 【Official Delist of spot trading pairs】. The official stance is "including but not limited to," and the exchange reserves final discretion.
1. Compliance and Legal Risks (Highest Priority)
Project team/founders are investigated or sued by the SEC or overseas regulators for securities violations, market manipulation, fraud
Project involved in money laundering, pyramid schemes, or other major criminal negatives
Regional regulatory new rules restrict the token from compliant operation in that area, triggering regional delisting
Major changes in core team or project sold without prior notification to the exchange for re-evaluation
2. Token Supply and Contract Technical Risks (Corresponding to CORE 8.31 Scenario)
Failure to notify exchange and users 15 days in advance, unauthorized total supply increase, hard forks, token splits—high-risk triggers
Note: Code bugs causing reward overflow or abnormal minting, even if not admin minting, will trigger risk assessment and observation list entry.
Public chain mainnet frequent failures, repeated block anomalies, frequent deposit/withdrawal errors
Major contract vulnerabilities, multiple hacks and thefts, no comprehensive remediation plan
Existence of 51% hash power attack risk, network security concerns
3. Liquidity and Trading Hard Metrics (Most Common Delisting Reasons)
Trading pair daily average volume below 5 BTC for 7 consecutive days
Zero trades in 24 hours, extremely poor depth, huge slippage
Project team faking trading volume
Many small tokens delist not due to malice but simply liquidity failure.
4. Team, Operations, and Development Fundamentals Deterioration
Official website inaccessible, Twitter/community unattended for over two weeks, team unreachable
No development/ecosystem progress on official channels for 1 month
GitHub public chain protocol no code commits for 3 consecutive months
Whitepaper roadmap seriously delayed without explanation
Foundation locked tokens sold in large amounts violating lockup plans or lockup plans not executed
Major information fraud deceiving exchange and investors
Marketing activities seriously damaging platform or community interests
5. Two States: Hidden VS Official Delisting
Hidden Tokens (Observation period, not delisting)
Trading still possible, just not shown in default lists/rankings, visible via search
Provide a rectification window; if standards met, display restored; if worsened, escalate to official delisting
Official Delist (spot trading pair delisting) typical process (based on OKX actual announcements)
Announcement issued, deposit suspended (e.g., ULTI/GEAR/VRA deposits suspended from 2026/1/20 08:00 UTC)
Spot trading closed at set time, open orders automatically canceled (system cancellation takes 1–3 business days)
Assets moved to "Funding Account / Untradable assets," withdrawal window retained (from several days up to about 3 months, e.g., MAJOR/J trading stopped early June, withdrawal stopped August 26)
After window ends, withdrawal closed completely, exchange no longer custodial
Key: Delisting trading pairs ≠ token value zero; tokens remain on public chain, just no longer traded or custodied by the exchange.
6. Delisting "On-chain earning/staking financial products" ≠ Token Delisting
Example: CORE/PYTH delisting on-chain earning means the exchange no longer acts as staking agent; orders mature and principal + earnings auto-redeemed to funding account; spot trading and deposits/withdrawals unaffected.
Common reasons:
Long staking unlock periods, protocol bug risks, exchange bears redemption responsibility
Stricter overseas regulation on centralized platform DeFi staking
High node maintenance costs, mismatched yield risks
7. CORE 8.31 Incident Realistic Interpretation
Nature: A few validators’ block rewards exceeded protocol design (reward distribution layer logic bug), not manual minting by project backend, no user asset theft; but failure to announce 15 days in advance + abnormal supply triggered OKX observation list conditions
Not immediate delisting; follow-up depends on four points:
Official full review + exact overflow token quantity
Overflow token handling (recovery/destruction/allow circulation)
Whether supply abnormalities recur
Whether liquidity remains compliant
Only if risk is unsolvable will official delisting proceed
8. Practical Checklist for Token Holders
Check announcement classification: delisting financial product / hidden token / spot trading pair delisting
Distinguish: product function delisting ≠ token delisting
If entering hidden/observation state → monitor official review and handling plan
Withdrawal window provided → withdraw to self-custody wallet during window (note UTC and Beijing time conversion, keep network confirmation margin)
Check "Untradable assets" dead zone in account; don’t wait until cutoff day to act $OKB short position 20x, from 114.56 to 107.36, +125.69%. The mid-to-long-term logic is solid: OKX has restructured OKB into the sole Gas + Exchange OS threshold asset on the X Layer, with a hard cap supply of 21 million and no unlocking, compliant with EU MiCA/payment licenses and connected to ICE's traditional financial channels.
However, the short cycle is digesting: after the August burn/upgrade expectations, it retraced from the highs; on-chain activity and staking returns (user feedback indicates APY is below expectations) currently do not support valuation extension. The chart shows weak oscillation and downward probing; observe around 107 first, if 110 breaks, then look at 105/102. Do not gamble on the narrative at 20x, take profit near 110. $BTC $ETH #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $ENS — Bulls Facing a Big Test
$ENS has slipped -5.68% to around $5.378. The $5.10–$5.25 zone is important; a strong defense could trigger a recovery.
EP: $5.15–$5.40
TP: $5.80
SL: $4.95Bitcoin ETF Money Is Leaving. But It May Not Be Leaving Crypto. The first signal from September looked bearish. $BTC slipped below $77K as oil surged, Treasury yields climbed and geopolitical risk pushed investors away from risk assets. But then the capital flows got interesting. Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $236.5M in net outflows on September 1. At the same time, Ethereum ETFs recorded roughly $11M in inflows, XRP about $14.4M, Solana about $10.2M, and Hyperliquid around $1.8M. That is not a brRobinhood Chain has been quite strong recently.
On 8/31, the single-day DEX volume hit $1.33B, breaking records for the fourth consecutive time
TVL surged to $708M
Protocol revenue in 24h was about $2.66 million
PONS issued 22,600 new tokens in one day
At first glance, it looks like a new Solana, but looking closely at the trading structure: a large portion involves meme coins and tokenized stock pairs.
In other words, the trading volume is real, but the core driving force is still speculation and memes, not a "blockchain financial revolution."
However, this sector is indeed evolving: Russia’s digital ruble officially launched on 9/1, Thailand’s SEC wants retail investors to compliantly trade overseas derivatives, and the SEC has postponed Form PF disclosure until 2027.
Regulation is gradually making way, and on-chain infrastructure is maturing.
The question is:
When the meme hype fades, can Robinhood Chain retain its users?
Do you think it can become the next Base/Solana-level Layer 2?
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 As soon as John Ternus came on, Apple's stock price actually rose against the trend.
Many people think the market is betting on Apple's new AI features.
I think it's not that simple.
What’s really worth watching is this man's judgment on AI, which might be different from the whole Silicon Valley.
Google and OpenAI are crazily stacking models, increasing parameters, and competing for computing power.
John Ternus, however, has shifted the battlefield down a level:
The ultimate entry point for AI may not be in the cloud, but in the devices in your hands.
What does that mean?
Whoever controls enough terminals controls the real entry point to AI.
And Apple's most terrifying chip isn’t any single model.
It’s the more than 2.5 billion active devices worldwide.
iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch...
If AI ultimately wants to enter everyone's daily life, Apple doesn’t need to beat OpenAI on model parameters.
It just needs to truly run AI on these devices.
Last night, as I was writing this, I suddenly understood why Cook needs to step down, and I seem to have more expectations for Apple.
Even more interestingly, Ternus understood something very early on:
Technology’s real value isn’t how complex it is, but whether it can enter people’s bodies and lives.#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 Good evening everyone
ADP small nonfarm payrolls essentially serve as a leading indicator for Fed rate cut expectations, transmitted to the crypto market through actual US Treasury yields and the US dollar index. BTC, ETH, and SOL show progressively higher sensitivity to the data, with withdrawal risks simultaneously increasing.
$BTC BTC
Reacts moderately to ADP. If ADP misses expectations, rate cut expectations heat up, US Treasury yields decline, and institutional ETF capital preference rises. BTC, relying on base holdings, is the first to price in macro benefits and shows the strongest resilience to pullbacks.
If ADP significantly exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations are delayed, actual yields rise, and BTC will face pressure. However, large whales’ accumulated holdings will limit the decline. BTC mainly trades medium to long-term liquidity; a single ADP report rarely changes the large range but amplifies intraday volatility.
$ETH ETH
Falls between BTC and SOL. ETH is constrained by macro interest rates, on-chain staking arbitrage, and regulation. When ADP weakens and liquidity improves, ETH’s elasticity exceeds BTC’s; but after benefits are realized, staking arbitrage holdings tend to be taken profit on, often resulting in the phenomenon of “macro benefits but underperforming the market.”
If ADP is hawkishly above expectations, growth assets collectively devalue, and ETH’s pullback will be significantly larger than BTC’s, with trapped positions pressure quickly emerging.
$SOL SOL
Most sensitive to interest rates, driven purely by sentiment and hot money. The expectation gap in ADP data impacts SOL the most: if ADP misses expectations, risk appetite opens, short-term speculative funds flood in, and SOL’s rebound explosiveness is strongest; if ADP beats expectations, rate cut expectations vanish, high-valuation growth speculative assets are sold off, and SOL, lacking long-term accumulated holdings to support it, will experience rapid deep declines, with spike and two-way liquidation probabilities far higher than the other two.
Summary
Data misses expectations (liquidity positive): rebound elasticity ranking SOL > ETH > BTC;
Data exceeds expectations (rate cut delayed): pullback magnitude ranking SOL > ETH > BTC;
ADP is only a leading indicator; the market ultimately awaits the nonfarm payroll cross-verification. In a stock market environment, it is difficult for positive news to translate into sustained large moves, mostly short-term pulses; only continuous weakening of multiple employment data sets and fully realized rate cut expectations will trigger a larger-scale upward move.On the first trading day of September, Bitcoin lost the $78,000 level, causing market sentiment to tighten sharply. This is not an ordinary correction but the result of concentrated macro pressure release. Currently, the futures market prices a 66% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike on September 16, the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to a cyclical high of 4.784%, Brent crude oil has broken through $90, and combined with the hawkish remarks from Fed official Waller, multiple negative factors have pushed the market back to its original state.
The shift in capital flow is even more direct. After nine consecutive days of cumulative net inflows totaling $924 million, ETFs turned to a net outflow of $202 million on August 29, with Fidelity being the main seller. Market maker Wintermute clearly marked the monthly long-short boundary: three failed attempts to break $82,000 have formed a temporary iron ceiling; if $75,000 is lost, the price may slide toward $72,000.
Historical data is also unfavorable. Since 2013, September has been the worst-performing month on average for Bitcoin, with an average decline of about 3%, earning it the nickname "Rektember" in trading circles. In the past 24 hours, the entire network's long positions have exploded to $438 million, with leveraged longs undergoing a precise cleansing. Next, if the September 5 nonfarm payroll data is hotter than expected, rate hike expectations will further intensify, making the test of the $75,000 level even more severe.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above analysis is based on public data and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions rationally and pay attention to risks. $BTC"On-Chain Dogecoin Frenzy Boosts Underlying Landlords: Robinhood Earns Two Million in a Single Day, ARB Rents Surge 30%"
Robinhood public chain fees surged over $2 million in a single day, while the underlying landlord Arbitrum saw rents soar 30% in one day!
Previously, layer-2 governance tokens were widely scorned for lacking cash flow support, with major layer-2 networks mired in high subsidies and fake TVL competition.
According to Orbit protocol rules, dedicated application chains must forcibly remit 10% of net protocol revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem treasury and developers.
Retail investors in U.S. stocks flood the chain, generating massive fees and driving the underlying mainnet to realize a textbook-level platform tax revenue sharing closed loop for the first time.
As Wall Street giants’ on-chain casinos continuously pay taxes to the underlying public chain, the value capture logic of infrastructure tokens has been completely rewritten by code. $ARB The just-released August ADP employment data shows that the U.S. private sector added only 38,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 47,000 and also below the upwardly revised 46,000 in July, marking the slowest growth since January this year. More notably, manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services lost 16,000, with new jobs mainly concentrated in education and healthcare services.
This means that the original logic of "waiting for nonfarm payroll verification" in the picture now has an additional latest piece.
Moreover, the JOLTS data released the day before was not particularly strong either. July job openings were about 7.27 million, slightly up from the revised 7.18 million in June, but overall still at a relatively low level; according to the latest data, there are about 1.05 job openings per unemployed person, indicating companies are still hiring, but the hiring enthusiasm is not as strong as in previous years.
Looking at manufacturing again, the August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 55.6 to 54.6, still above the 50 expansion line, but the employment sub-index fell from 52.8 to 51.2, and new orders declined from 56.7 to 53.7.
So the signals from the U.S. economy right now are actually quite subtle:
The economy has not clearly entered a recession, but employment is gradually cooling down.
Ironically, the Fed’s biggest headache right now is not just employment.
Recently, Warsh’s hawkish remarks have reignited expectations for a September rate hike. CME FedWatch shows that the market had previously pushed the probability of a September hike to about 66%, a clear increase compared to before the speech.
This creates a very interesting contradiction.
The weaker the employment data, theoretically the more it supports the Fed easing; but if inflation remains high, the Fed has no reason to immediately pivot based on a single employment report.
So I think the real drama has not yet begun.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, September 4, the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls will be the key data to determine whether this round of expectations can continue to ferment. The BLS has confirmed that the August employment report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time that day.
Currently, the market expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.1%.
If the nonfarm payrolls also show only a few tens of thousands or even negative growth, then it’s not just that the ADP looks bad, but that employment cooling is beginning to form continuous evidence.
In that case, September rate hike expectations are likely to quickly fall back, and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may come under pressure, which could instead support BTC, gold, and U.S. growth stocks.
But if Friday’s nonfarm payrolls suddenly come in much better than expected, then today’s ADP might be regarded by the market as a leading indicator with limited reference value. After all, ADP counts only the private sector, while BLS nonfarm payrolls also include government employment, and the two data sets have not always been synchronized in the past.
Personally, I now lean more toward the second view: don’t rush to bet on rate cuts just because employment weakens.
Because the biggest risk this round is not "employment too strong," but "employment not strong, yet inflation won’t come down."
This combination is the most painful.
If it’s just economic cooling, the Fed has room to rescue; if it’s just high inflation, the Fed can continue to suppress demand.
The worst scenario is when both happen simultaneously—employment weakens while price pressures remain.
At that time, the Fed will be forced to choose between "saving jobs" and "controlling inflation," and asset prices tend to experience sharp volatility when policy expectations swing back and forth.
So going forward, I will focus on three numbers:
How many people the August nonfarm payrolls actually added, whether the unemployment rate breaks above 4.1%, and whether wage growth continues to cool.
If all three data points are weak simultaneously, September rate hike expectations may really become untenable.
Conversely, if employment is significantly stronger than expected, then the recently rekindled rate hike trade still has room to ferment, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may continue to pressure gold and BTC.
There are only two days left until the nonfarm payrolls.
ADP has already shown a somewhat weak answer, but the real determinant of September’s direction will be Friday’s data.
And this time, it may really be necessary to look beyond just "how many new jobs" to see whether U.S. companies still have the confidence to keep hiring.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $ZEC and $TRUMP, old familiar faces on the square, got hit again
Today ZEC dropped 5%, TRUMP fell nearly 7%. Four days ago, they were trending on the square with people saying one was pulling up while the other was consolidating, but today they both got hit together.
TRUMP fell from around 2.9 to 2.2, down almost 7 points. When BTC surged to 80,000, it followed along, and when the Meme sector heated up, funds rushed in. But once the market corrected, the 2.5-3.0 range was where previous trapped positions concentrated, with profit-taking and stop-loss orders running together, so the drop was fast.
ZEC fell from 861 to 788, with clear signals that whales are exiting. Four days ago it was consolidating near 800, but today it smashed through support. Sell orders accounted for 64%, buy orders only 35%, funding rate at -1%, shorts are paying to hold positions. After the Grayscale ETF news landed, high-level profit-taking has been ongoing.
Four days ago, the square was still shouting long and short, but today both sides have quieted down considerably. The excitement was real, and the drop was definitely ruthless. Let's watch and see.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $CORE CORE, here you go again?
Just finished a 350 million oversupply, and now there's a new 300 million staking — the official side isn't "solving problems," they're clearly just issuing new coins in different ways.
The validator over-reward loophole hasn't even clarified how many tokens have entered the market, multiple exchanges have directly suspended deposits and withdrawals, and retail investors can't even escape. The old debts haven't been settled, and now there's another batch of node September 2nd, the first day of real trading with 100U.
Opened a short position on $ETH at an average price of 2367.46, 15x full margin, margin just over 15U, nominal 226U. The current mark price is 2405, floating loss of 3.55U, drawdown about 24%. There is still 81U available to operate in the account.
I haven't changed my direction; the entry point was my own mistake. During the day, it dropped from 2429, and I shorted near the low point at 2358. Shorted near the floor, with little room above and no profit below, then it pulled back and held the position.
No stop loss was set in advance. Full margin liquidation is at 3415; the number looks far, and the farther it is, the easier it is to hold, which is the real trouble. If it rebounds to 2410–2420 tonight, I will reduce part of the position first; if it passes 2430, I will close it and not hold it until tomorrow.
Not calling this a signal, nor explaining it as a planned drawdown. The loss is just because the entry point was late. Will add another position after closing this one.#BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage under test
The strong linkage model between "digital gold" and physical gold has reached a critical testing window. Both belong to interest-free assets, but their underlying capital structures and asset attributes are not completely identical.
1. Core drivers of the synchronized pullback
1) Fed policy expectation repricing: Wash emphasized that the inflation target remains unchanged, the market has pushed the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September close to 65%, and US Treasury yields continue to rise. The holding cost of interest-free assets increases, putting pressure on capital outflows from both gold and BTC.
2) Rising oil prices amplify inflation concerns, Middle East tensions push up crude oil prices, market trades "stronger inflation stickiness, longer high interest rates," and a stronger dollar further suppresses the prices of both assets.
3) BTC's own leveraged positions take profits, ETF inflows marginally slow down, concentrated profit-taking by high-level longs amplifies the retracement, and short-term liquidation positions exacerbate volatility.
2. The linkage logic is undergoing a reality test
During easing market phases, BTC and gold rise and fall highly synchronously; but when liquidity tightens, their attribute differences become exposed.
- Gold: traditional reserve and safe-haven asset, continuously supported by global central bank gold purchases. Even under interest rate suppression, geopolitical crises and credit risks bring independent buying that buffers the decline.
- BTC: a dual-attribute asset, half is the "digital scarce asset" narrative, the other half is tied to US stock risk appetite. In a global risk-off environment, the crypto market's high leverage is liquidated and sold off first, with a downside elasticity often greater than gold.What is the reason for Bitcoin's recent surge to $80,000?
The price was low enough, the bears kept pushing but couldn't push it lower, and after a second bottom test, it didn't trigger a new round of selling pressure.
This indicates that the remaining chips are held by spot investors who are believers prepared to hold long-term. Meanwhile, the US stock market is in a high-level consolidation phase, and after peaking, a large amount of institutional funds need to rebalance their portfolios, choosing to shift to assets with higher investment returns.
At this time, with the Federal Reserve's bond repurchase policy, it is quite normal for some institutions to start driving the price up.
This asset has fluctuated up and down for more than a decade to reach the current level, and the crises it has experienced were all bigger than the current one.
The main problem now is that the AI narrative dominates the market, causing a clear siphoning effect on funds.
Bitcoin, as a naturally deflationary currency, can only serve as a savings vault for funds in the future and cannot produce breakthrough-level changes.
With the obvious benefits of AI, it is inevitable that liquidity will be drained and shrink in the crypto space.
Therefore, what we are seeing now is just volatility caused by institutional portfolio rebalancing triggered by favorable policies against the backdrop of AI peaking and value returning.Recently, the macro market has been playing something interesting. The non-farm payrolls haven't even been released yet, but the leading data has already caused a stir—ADP says employment is still pretty strong, while initial contracts are quietly climbing higher, with both sides torn between the two. The market has pushed up the probability of a rate hike in September even higher. Extending to BTC, the logic is clear: the rate hike expectations are heating up→ the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen→ global capital is shrinking into safe-haven markets→ risk assets are being drained. BTC is the first to bear the brunt. But if you look closely, every time this data gap occurs, it's actually when big money is readjusting. They don't bet on direction; they bet on the volatility of the non-farm payroll that night. So don't just focus on price guessing; it's more practical to see where the money flows.Dell exceeded expectations, but the market reaction was muted, indicating these numbers had long been priced in. AI servers reached 16.4 billion, with the full-year forecast raised to 74 billion. The figures do look good, but there was no significant surge after hours; the positive news had mostly been digested before the announcement. Next up, Broadcom and Snowflake are the main events. Broadcom needs to see if its custom AI chips can capture the overflow demand from Nvidia, while Snowflake musBrothers, tonight is destined to be a sleepless night.
The US August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, below the expected 55.2 and the previous 55.6. Manufacturing expansion is slowing down, which sounds like good news, right? After all, economic cooling = lower rate hike expectations = risk assets rebound. But the problem is—the Prices Paid Index is still stuck at 71.1. Inflation shows no sign of easing.
This is awkward. The economy is slowing, but prices keep rising—a classic stagflation scenario.
What’s worse, the Fed folks are all hawkish now. After Waller’s speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to nearly 60%, and CME FedWatch now shows 65.4%. What about Bitcoin? It plunged from above $81,000 to as low as around $76,000.
The Friday nonfarm payroll data is coming soon, with market expectations of about 80,000 new jobs. But honestly, good or bad data is a double-edged sword now—good data fears rate hikes, bad data fears recession.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $ETH $BTC Small non-farm payrolls surprise, where are non-farm payrolls and the crypto market headed?
The US ADP August new employment increased by only 38,000, far below expectations, hitting a new low for the year. Both manufacturing and business services showed declines, and wage growth slowed simultaneously. After the data release, crude oil and US Treasuries plunged, while the US stock market reacted mildly. As a leading indicator before the non-farm payrolls, the weak ADP significantly raised the downside risk of Friday's official report. Currently, the market forecasts non-farm payrolls to increase by about 53,000-58,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. However, combined with previously weak JOLTS job openings, if non-farm payrolls fall far short of expectations or even show negative growth, stagflation concerns may reignite. More critically, CME data shows the Federal Reserve's probability of a September rate hike still exceeds 62%. If non-farm payrolls also weaken, the rate hike logic will face severe challenges.
For the crypto market, theoretically, a weak ADP is positive for risk assets—cooling employment reduces the basis for rate hikes, improving liquidity expectations. But the actual market was hedged by geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran conflict, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $77,000, and the market mostly adopting a wait-and-see stance. In the short term, Friday's non-farm payrolls are key: if confirmed significant employment slowdown, cooling rate hike expectations will be a medium-term positive for crypto; if the data is unexpectedly strong, it will suppress risk assets. However, the CPI data before the September 16 FOMC meeting may be even more decisive.
Summary: The ADP surprise sounds a warning for non-farm payrolls, but the market awaits final confirmation. Short-term volatility in crypto is inevitable, and the medium-term direction depends on whether non-farm payrolls can truly shake the Fed's rate hike stance. Currently, it is advisable to wait and watch for the data to land. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC Risk Warning: Virtual currency trading is an illegal financial activity explicitly prohibited in our country and is not protected by law. Leveraged trading can easily result in the total loss of principal. U.S. stocks belong to overseas markets and carry multiple risks including exchange rate, geopolitical, and policy risks. The following is only an objective summary of publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Participation in trading is strictly prohibited.
On the night of September 2, after the New York session opens, it marks a critical window for global risk asset volatility. The U.S. stock market officially opens in the evening Beijing time, with European and American institutional funds entering the market in concentration. U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar, and crude oil trade simultaneously. Bitcoin (referred to as "Big Cake") and Ethereum ("Second Cake") operate continuously around the clock. Futures and options derivatives undergo concentrated clearing, volatility rises significantly, and the probability of flash crashes and chain liquidations is relatively high. Technical support and resistance levels are easily broken by sudden news, market-wide long-short divergences further widen, and the overall environment is one of risk appetite contraction.
Bitcoin (Big Cake) on the night of September 2 is generally in a pattern of oscillation and digestion after a rally and pullback. The previous attempt to break the strong resistance at $81,000–$82,000 failed, with bullish momentum continuing to wane. The main intraday trading range is $76,300–$78,100. After the Jackson Hole meeting released a hawkish tone, the market raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to around 4.80%, suppressing valuations of risk-free assets and directly limiting Bitcoin's upside. There was a noticeable shift in capital flows: the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF changed from sustained net inflows to a phase of net outflows, with institutional funds taking profits at highs and insufficient incremental buying, lacking capital to push prices to challenge previous highs again. On-chain data shows no large-scale concentrated selling by whale accounts, providing some bottom support, but ordinary retail investors increased profit-taking at highs, reducing market consensus on the long side. Derivative open interest remains high, with many long and short orders stacked at key price levels. Slight touches of these key levels at night easily trigger forced liquidations, further amplifying price swings.
The crypto market has no daily price limits; daily fluctuations of thousands of dollars are normal. Regulatory rumors, official statements, and sudden changes in Middle East situations can instantly reverse market trends. Relying solely on technical indicators for market judgment has limited reference value. The core variables at night remain U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index. If Treasury yields continue to rise and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin will face pressure to test lower support levels. Only if yields fall and global risk appetite recovers will Bitcoin have the conditions to retest upper resistance. Geopolitically, escalation of Middle East conflicts pushes oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and indirectly reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, which indirectly suppresses Bitcoin.
Ethereum (Second Cake) is a typical high-beta asset, with price movements closely following Bitcoin but generally exhibiting greater volatility. On the night of September 2, its trading range was $2,350–$2,470. During market upswings, Ethereum often outperforms Bitcoin, but when risk aversion rises, its pullbacks are also deeper. Besides the systemic trends driven by Bitcoin, Ethereum is influenced by multiple factors including its own spot ETF fund flows, DeFi on-chain activity, staking unlocks, and sector rotation. Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio remains low, indicating market funds prioritize Bitcoin allocation, making it difficult for Ethereum to develop an independent trend. Although Ethereum's spot ETF maintains slight inflows, the scale and sustainability are far less than Bitcoin's ETF, unable to drive an independent upward trend based on fundamentals alone. Compared to Bitcoin, institutional support for Ethereum is weaker, and during risk-off phases, funds exit faster, showing less resilience. The night scenario can be summarized as: Bitcoin holds within a range, Ethereum follows with range-bound oscillation; if Bitcoin breaks key support effectively, Ethereum will experience a deeper correction.
U.S. stock market sentiment before the night session on September 2 was generally cautious, with the three major indices diverging. The Nasdaq showed the largest volatility, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 were relatively more resilient. Historical data shows September is traditionally a weak month for U.S. stocks, with institutions conducting quarterly fund rebalancing and repositioning, compounded by market repricing of the Fed's rate path, accumulating short-term correction risks. Rising Treasury yields directly suppress high-valuation growth sectors such as AI and semiconductors, which heavily weight the Nasdaq, resulting in significantly greater Nasdaq volatility. Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising international oil prices raise concerns about inflation rebounding, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain high rates or even hike, continuously suppressing stock valuations. The U.S. August nonfarm payroll data, to be released this Friday, is the most important reference before the September Fed meeting, leading to strong market wait-and-see sentiment and a tendency to reduce positions to avoid uncertainty.
The correlation between U.S. stocks and crypto assets remains high, sharing the same global risk appetite logic. When U.S. tech stocks strengthen and risk appetite rises, it indirectly benefits Bitcoin and Ethereum; when U.S. stocks collectively sell off, high-risk assets are uniformly reduced, and cryptocurrencies come under pressure simultaneously. There is also a capital siphoning effect: as U.S. stocks generate profits, some speculative funds flow back from crypto to stocks; when risk aversion erupts, funds withdraw simultaneously from both markets. Crypto-related concept stocks weaken in tandem with Bitcoin, further confirming their linkage.
In summary, the core contradictions among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. stocks on the night of September 2 focus on Fed policy expectations, U.S. Treasury yields, oil prices, Middle East geopolitical risks, and nonfarm payroll outlooks. Under the baseline scenario, the night will likely continue a range-bound tug-of-war, with large one-sided moves requiring major economic data or sudden events as catalysts. Derivative leveraged positions have not been fully cleared, market sentiment is highly sensitive, and false breakouts and rapid flash moves will frequently occur, making technical support and resistance levels not absolutely reliable.
A solemn reminder again: Chinese law explicitly prohibits virtual currency trading and speculation. Overseas trading platforms are not regulated domestically, and risks such as platform shutdowns, fund theft, and price manipulation objectively exist. Losses cannot be legally recovered. Overseas U.S. stock trading also faces multiple risks including exchange rate fluctuations, overseas regulation, and trading time differences. Ordinary participants are easily tempted by huge overnight volatility, and using leverage can cause massive principal losses in a short time. It is recommended to stay away from such high-risk speculation and prioritize domestic compliant financial investment channels. (Full text 1994 characters)
This analysis involves multiple types of overseas assets and covers many information dimensions. The work mode can assist with public data retrieval, risk point sorting, and scenario comparison. Would you like to continue using it?I just made $CRDO a top 5 position in my growth portfolio because Credo is evolving into a much broader bet on owning the connection inside AI clusters.
As those clusters move toward 1.6T and eventually 3.2T then Credo can capture more of the link across electrical, optical, DSPs and silicon photonics as bandwidth and distance requirements increase.
And once you own more of the link then products like Pilot let Credo move up another layer by monitoring connection health.
#DailyOrbit AI earnings relay, Dell has already submitted its report, and Broadcom and Snowflake will reveal their results tonight
The AI earnings season is not over yet. Nvidia's wave just passed, and this week Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake are taking over.
Dell submitted its report last night, with revenue of 47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58%, and its stock jumped 11% after hours. AI server quarterly revenue reached 16.4 billion, nearly doubling, and it still holds 95 billion in backlog orders. The full-year revenue guidance was raised from 167 billion to 192 billion, an increase of 25 billion, which is indeed solid data.
Tonight it's Broadcom and Snowflake's turn. Broadcom's focus is whether AI semiconductors can reach the 16 billion guidance line and how it responds to Google TPU orders being taken by Marvell; the statements during the call may be more critical than the numbers themselves. For Snowflake, the market expects revenue of 1.48 billion, with core attention on RPO and NRR renewal metrics for cloud data; the progress of AI monetization on the software side is what the market most wants to verify.
The market now cares about the same question: can AI money spread from chips to servers, networks, and enterprise software? Computing power demand is real, but whether it can extend to the entire industry chain depends on this week's data. Dell has already told a convincing story on the hardware side; next, it depends on whether the software side can take the baton.
$SNOW $AVGO $xDELL
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 ADP only increased by 38,000, hitting an 8-month low, yet Williams is still shouting "inflation target priority"—is the September rate hike in doubt?
Last night, the ADP data was released: private sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, far below the expected 48,000, marking the lowest since January this year. Manufacturing cut 17,000 jobs, professional business services unexpectedly cut 16,000 jobs, and wage growth in low-paying positions has completely lost its pre-pandemic momentum—the job market is cooling down rapidly.
But the Fed's number three, Williams, said something surprising on CNBC. He acknowledged that recent inflation data is encouraging, tariff impacts are fading, Middle East energy prices have not yet spread to the service sector, and then added: the current interest rate level is "in a good position."
In plain language: employment is cooling, inflation pressure is easing, and rates may not need to rise further.
Previously, Warsh's "hawkish catchphrase" pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%, now Williams' dovish remarks suggest a rate hike is not a foregone conclusion—the Fed is divided internally, bulls and bears each have their own backers.
My judgment: the nonfarm payrolls are the real referee. ADP has already disappointed; if Friday's nonfarm payrolls also fall short of expectations, the probability of a rate hike will drop significantly, and BTC may see a rebound window. But don't rush in—hold back until the data is out and wait for a clear direction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#日本长债收益率升至高位 #日本长债收益率升至高位 Japan's 10-year government bond yield has reached 3%, and the 30-year bond yield has surpassed 4.18%, both hitting the highest levels since 1996. This is not just a matter for Japan alone; U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and long-term bond yields in the UK and Germany are also near multi-year highs. Global long-term interest rates are undergoing a systemic repricing, with Japan being the most extreme case. For the market, the real impact is that the global cost of capital is trendMany people still think "war = safe haven = bullish for BTC," but I advise you to throw away this old script. How is the market pricing the conflict now? Inflation. High energy prices in the Middle East → rising inflation → central banks dare not cut interest rates. Today, the Bank of Canada held steady for the seventh consecutive time, and central banks worldwide are uniformly hawkish, with the yen falling to 160, forcing authorities to intervene. When money becomes more expensive, no risk asset can stand alone—both gold and $BTC are under pressure. Stop using the "safe haven narrative" to boost your long positions; first, look at where the two-year US Treasury yield is heading. When macro is not on your side, holding positions is slow suicide.Dell exceeded expectations, but the market reaction was muted, indicating these numbers had long been priced in.
AI servers reached 16.4 billion, with the full-year forecast raised to 74 billion. The figures do look good, but there was no significant surge after hours; the positive news had mostly been digested before the announcement.
Next up, Broadcom and Snowflake are the main events. Broadcom needs to see if its custom AI chips can capture the overflow demand from Nvidia, while Snowflake must prove that enterprise data cloud still has growth potential in the AI era.
Dell validates the old logic, while Broadcom and Snowflake need to validate the new logic.
If these two can also deliver numbers beyond expectations, the AI infrastructure chain will truly be up and running. If only Dell looks good and the others don’t follow, the market won’t go far.
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒