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🚨 The real focus of the $CORE DAO hard fork this time is not the word "upgrade"
This is due to some validators claiming rewards beyond the protocol's expectations. Core has already contained the situation and is preparing to fix it through an emergency hard fork.
The key point is: this time there will be no rollback, nor will any confirmed transactions be revoked. Instead, it will upgrade forward and patch the vulnerability.
So for ordinary token holders, the focus is not "whether a new coin will be forked out," but on three things:
How much was overissued?
Has any entered the market?
After the fix, can the $CORE supply model still remain credible?
Core officials have not yet disclosed the exact amount of excess rewards or how much has entered circulation.
I think this is the real test of this incident.
The hard fork can fix the code, but market confidence still needs to be restored by the data that follows. ISM and JOLTS were released simultaneously, but their directions are inconsistent.
Manufacturing momentum is slowing but still above the expansion line.
Job vacancies slightly rebounded but remain below expectations.
The data itself does not provide a one-sided answer.
However, the market has pushed the probability of a September rate hike to over 66%.
For BTC and ETH, this means macro pressure continues.
The rebound space is suppressed.
The real direction will be determined by Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
Before that, BTC and ETH are unlikely to have an independent trend.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The most common mistake in the current market is focusing only on the $BTC candlestick chart. $BTC is repeatedly tugging around $77,000, $ETH has returned to around 2420, and gold has retreated from a high to around 4330. Although these look like three different charts, they are actually trading the same issue: the market is starting to reassess whether to continue raising interest rates in September. This week's non-farm payrolls are especially critical. The market currently expects about 58,000 new jobs in August and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, but leading signals are contradictory—hiring is declining, unemployment has not worsened significantly, and inflation remains sticky. Meanwhile, the Middle East situation has pushed Brent crude oil to around $95, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.81%. The market's pricing for a 25bp rate hike in September has already reached about 68%. So now there is a very unusual combination: signs of economic slowdown, but interest rate expectations are becoming more hawkish. This is why $BTC did not continue to accelerate after breaking through 80,000, and $ETH, $SOL, $SUI, $HYPE, $AVAX, and $LINK have also entered a consolidation phase. In the short term, I am more focused on $BTC between 76,000 and 77,000; only by reclaiming 79,000 can it qualify to challenge 80,000–81,500 again. If 76,000 is effectively lost, we need to guard against the market retesting daily-level support. For $ETH, first watch if 2380–2400 can hold, and then reclaim 2480–2500; only then can altcoin risk appetite possibly reopen. But on the other side of the chain, things are heating up dramatically. Robinhood ChUNI at $6.3, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: up 97% in a month, market cap hitting 3.9 billion.
Up 47% in the past 7 days, another 8-12% surge in 24 hours, climbing nonstop from 3.2 to 6.3. The candlestick chart tells you: short, medium, and long-term moving averages are all bullish, ADX shows a strong trend, a bull market structure, but the short term is heating up fast.
First thing: UNI has transformed from a “useless governance token” to a “money-printing burn machine.”
UNI used to be criticized—“only governance rights, no value capture, price rises depend entirely on whales’ moods.”
Now the fee switch is officially activated: the protocol takes a portion of fees from every transaction to buy back and burn UNI on the market.
Robinhood Chain explosion: tokenized stocks/RWA trading volume surged to $130 million/day, with Uniswap taking most of the share.
Daily burn records keep breaking: recently about 150,000 UNI burned in one day, cumulative burn has reached tens of millions to over a hundred million.
Second thing: Robinhood Chain gave UNI a second life.
Data as of September 2, 2026:
Protocol TVL $3.455 billion: Ethereum mainnet $2.38 billion, Base $412 million, Arbitrum $185 million, Robinhood Chain already at $163 million.
30-day trading volume $54.8 billion, annualized fees $851 million.
Protocol revenue (for burning) annualized about $56.4 million, 30 days $9.19 million, 24 hours $610,000.
The real trading demand for tokenized stocks and RWA on Robinhood Chain has turned UNI from a “meme coin casino” into a “compliant asset trading infrastructure.”
Third thing: risks remain, FOMC is the biggest variable.
FOMC on September 16, current pricing for a 25bp rate hike is about 35-66%. Chair Warsh is hawkish, 10-year US Treasury yield is at a cycle high, suppressing no-yield assets.
If Nonfarm Payrolls (September 4) or CPI (September 11) data are strong, BTC might retest 75,000 or even lower—no matter how strong UNI is, it can’t withstand a BTC crash.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Fee burn activated, UNI changed from governance token to a protocol token with cash flow
Robinhood Chain’s explosive contribution, real incremental trading demand
30-day rise of 97%, trend strength ADX shows bulls dominate
All moving averages bullish, mid-term structure intact
On the other side:
RSI 78, extremely overbought short term, strong pullback demand
If funding rate turns too positive, risk of bull squeeze
FOMC rate hike expectations suppress macro, BTC breaking 75,000 will drag down
6.3 is already a position after a sharp rise, chasing high has average risk-reward
Resistance above: 6.37-6.5 → 6.8-7.2 → 8-9 (needs volume breakout)
Support below: 6.0-5.96 → 5.78-5.70 → 5.50-5.39 → 5.22-5.13
Trading strategy
If you already have long positions:
Move stop profit to 5.70, first target 6.8-7.2 to sell half, second target 8-9.
If you are empty and want to go long:
Don’t chase! Wait for a pullback to 5.85-5.70 with low volume stabilization before entering. Or wait for daily volume to break and hold above 6.5 to chase the breakout, but keep position light.
If you want to short/reduce positions:
Light short near 6.3-6.4, target pullback to 5.9-5.7, stop loss above 6.5.
Risk control iron rules:
Perpetual leverage within 3-5x, single trade risk no more than 1-2% of principal
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls on September 4, CPI on September 11, FOMC on September 16
Reduce or hedge if BTC breaks below 75,000
UNI’s move from 3.2 to 6.3 is the first real value return in DeFi narrative—
99% of people still criticize “governance tokens are useless,” yet UNI doubled in a month, burning 150,000 daily.
6.3 is neither bottom nor top—it’s the starting point of a newly validated narrative.
But don’t forget, even the best coin can trap you for three months if you chase in an overbought zone.
What’s your UNI cost?
At 6.3, are you chasing?
$BTC $ETH $UNI $BTC
【The Market Is Evolving, Avoid Rigid Thinking: A Deep Reflection on the Bottom Cost of BTC On-Chain】
I had been puzzled: the chart structure already shows signs of reversal, so why hasn't the classic STH-RP broken below the LTH-RP to trigger an extreme signal? The two seem contradictory.
After reading wander's correction on LTH cost, I suddenly realized: traditional indicators are undergoing "structural distortion." As BTC's history lengthens, a large amount of ancient dead coins and lost coins over 7 years old have severely dragged down the traditional LTH cost benchmark.
But when we exclude these dormant chips, the truth emerges: on June 19, STH-RP had already substantially crossed below the corrected LTH cost (Ratio < 1, only 0.966). This not only means the extreme convergence and clearing of the deep bear market had long been completed, but currently it is building momentum to form a right-side "golden cross" contrast, fully resonating with the recent volume rebound!
The biggest trap in trading is often not the market itself, but using old maps to find new lands. Market capital structure is changing, and on-chain understanding must also dynamically iterate.
Say goodbye to static rigidity, embrace trend reversals! Core driver of the decline: sudden escalation of US-Iran military conflict
The direct catalyst for today's decline is the sharp escalation of the US-Iran military conflict:
· US military airstrike: At noon on September 1, the US military launched strikes against targets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran, with explosions reported in multiple locations including Abbas Port and Qeshm Island
· Iranian missile counterattack: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced a "decisive" retaliatory action against US targets, using missiles and drones
· Trump warns of escalation: Stated that if Iran continues retaliation, the next US strike will be "stronger and at a higher level"
· Explosion in Iran's energy hub: An explosion was reported in Asaluyeh (Iran's most important natural gas and petrochemical industrial center)
Transmission path: Geopolitical conflict escalation → Brent crude oil surges 4.6% to $94.65/barrel, WTI surges 5.2% to $90.22/barrel → inflation expectations rise → US Treasury yields increase → attractiveness of interest-bearing assets strengthens → zero-yield assets like Bitcoin come under pressure → $115 million long positions liquidated within an hour → price spirals downward. $BTC $ETH $CORE #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 US tech, storage, and crypto-related stocks broadly declined, while Apple and Meta rose against the trend.
Today is Apple's CEO's first day on the job, even Musk had to say congratulations.
After-hours tonight, AVGO and HPE earnings reports will be the next volatility nodes.
The storage sector is pulling back in sync: MU -2.69%, SNDK -1.94%, SKHY -2.38%.
CRDO released earnings and dropped more than ten points directly. Unfortunately, I only shorted it in my mind yesterday, haha.
Dell + PANW, mentioned yesterday morning, had big swings after hours during earnings and calls.
20:15: US August ADP employment data. Worth paying more attention tonight.
Tomorrow 04:30: HPE FY2026 Q3 earnings call; Binance has HPEUSDT contracts.
05:00: Broadcom FY2026 Q3 earnings call; Binance has AVGOUSDT contracts.
At the hottest moments, timelines are often full of profit screenshots, which is exactly when calm is most needed. It's not that there are no opportunities now, but opportunities are increasingly concentrated in short-lived hotspots.
Robinhood Chain indeed has real transaction and revenue support, but hot money, KOLs, and tool promotions have all flooded in together, making it easier to enter a phase of mutual harvesting later.
When it takes off, missing out feels bad. When losing money, you realize it's better to stay in cash.The underlying truth behind the 40 billion trading volume: many early ve(3,3) model DEXs eventually fell into a vicious cycle of "token emission - inflation - mining disaster," but THENA achieved a crucial second evolution: by introducing TWAP, limit orders, take profit and stop loss, as well as perpetual contracts (Perp), THENA successfully transformed from a "liquidity mining farm" into a "high-frequency and quant capital-friendly DEX." The 40 billion USD spot trading volume is continuously generated by a relatively lean TVL with high-frequency turnover, driven by concentrated liquidity and advanced algorithmic matching. THENA's pool routing trigger frequency consistently ranks among the top. Especially during high volatility markets, its limit order and TWAP engines handle a large amount of on-chain hedging and automated execution demands. When new MEME tokens or innovative protocols emerge on BNB Chain, THENA is often among the first DEXs to complete deep pool creation and ve(3,3) voting incentive responses, forming a positive cycle of "new asset listing — trading volume surge — protocol revenue increase — bribery income boost." THENA's official 2.0 upgrade focuses on "improving liquidity execution" and "expanding ecosystem cooperation." Under the strong support of BNB Chain's official efforts to enhance decentralized trading experience and bridge the gap between CEX and DEX, THENA is playing the role of a "CEX-comparable experience on BNB Chain" $ETH ETH Holds at 2,425 – Whale Pressure Persists
ETH trades around $2,425, down 0.2%, stuck in a $2,400–$2,450 range.
Headwinds: U.S.-Iran tensions weigh on risk assets. The whale that moved ETH to exchanges last week still lingers — ~$20M sell orders at $2,442.
Bright spot: Cboe confirms VanEck ETH ETF options launch Sept 11 — potential liquidity boost.
Levels: Support $2,380–$2,400 (break → $2,220). Resistance $2,450–$2,470 (break → $2,550). Stay patient.Historical data shows a pattern: since 2020, Bitcoin has only closed positive in August twice, and September has subsequently dropped by 7.30% and 7.96% respectively.
After rising 25% in August, September faces triple pressure from interest rate hike expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and ETF outflows — will this "Red September" curse be broken this year? $ARB After a 30% surge, will it consolidate sideways? Don't be fooled by illusions—here's the truth!
After a 30% surge in a single day, it quickly pulled back to consolidation. Many people are asking: is this the main force selling off or just air refueling? Combining the latest hot topics and market trends, Ali will break down the logic behind it. After reading, you'll understand!
The sole driving force behind this rally was Robinhood Chain's explosive revenue! In just 8 days, daily trading revenue soared from $54,000 to $2 million! Arbitrum protocol took a 10% cut, and the market directly revalued it with $73 million in annualized revenue. That's why even when the market falls, it can still pull up a big bullish candlestick against the trend.
Another point is, since the positive news is so big, why did it stop rising at 0.11664?
Around 0.119 is the early dense trap zone, with uneven and profit-taking positions falling together, and the main players don't want to be the PLA. The current boom is supported by gas subsidies (expiring in October). Funds are gambling: if subsidies stop, can income still be maintained? Before the answer comes out, buyers are hesitant. And on September 23, a large token will be unlocked! Before this point, the main players are very likely to hold on the market and fluctuate, unwilling to give unlocked chips the chance to sell at high levels.
What do you do next?
Don't expect a V-shaped reversal in the short term; it's most likely a wide-range shakeout and shakeout:
The core range is between 0.105 and 0.116. Watching Robinhood Chain's daily revenue📝 Today's share $BTC #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
BTC rate hike expectations heat up, chain reaction after losing 77K
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has surged to 66%-70%. After the hawkish Jackson Hole, Bull added on Tuesday: "If inflation does not cool sufficiently, be prepared to support a rate hike." The CPI data on September 11 will be the final verdict, with the market pricing in advance.
BTC fell below 77,000 overnight, hitting a low of 76,458. A stronger dollar, oil prices soaring above $90, and escalating Middle East tensions create multiple bearish factors. The historical average decline in September is about 3%, and the "September effect" is unfolding.
Key levels: support at 76,000-76,500, if broken look for 73,700-75,100; resistance at 79,400-80,100.
Strategy: Hold the base position, no adding. Wait for CPI release or a low-volume stabilization near 76K before reassessing. With rate hike expectations plus seasonal weakness, heavy directional bets have very low cost-effectiveness.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Last night (September 1), the underlying logic of this drop was very clear: the surge in oil prices reignited the market's expectations for interest rate hikes.
Geopolitical conflicts pushed crude oil up to $89 at one point, but the market didn't treat this as a safe haven signal; instead, it was trading on rising inflation. The US stock market led the decline, and the crypto market also suffered, with SOL directly falling below $100, and long positions on Bitcoin liquidated nearly $90 million.
Although the 1H chart is oversold and could bounce at any time, the 4H level correction signal has been confirmed, and the CB premium also shows that US institutional investors are selling at a discount.
The idea is simple: pull up to the $78k-$78.5k magnetic zone to look for opportunities to short on rallies, with support at $76k-$74.5k.
Before the Friday non-farm payroll data is released, risk control is paramount; do not heavily bet on direction. Did everyone get caught off guard by this wave of oil price and geopolitical black swan events last night?
#BTC #CryptoMarket #Macroeconomics #PersonalReview #RiskControl$BTC Family, can I still make it to the other side?
Previously at 60,000, it was said to be the most important support; now above 80,000, it's the rebound peak.
Recently, Bitcoin once strongly broke through $80,000, reaching an intraday high of $81,270. From the low point of about $60,000, the rebound has exceeded 35%, and the August increase set the largest single-month gain record since November 2024.
Market sentiment has since heated up, with the extreme greed index reappearing. Some institutions even called for a target price of $100,000. However, is this explosive rise the start of a new bull market, or a short-term pulse driven by specific macro events and leverage?
I believe it is still too early to declare the bull market restarted.
The core driving force of this round of market movement leans more toward the latter. The trigger for this rebound was the U.S. Treasury's announcement on August 19 of a liquidity support measure: doubling the single repo operation limit for long-term Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion.
After the announcement, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield promptly fell from above 5.3%, the dollar weakened, and non-sovereign assets like gold and Bitcoin surged simultaneously.
The market interpreted this as a mini quantitative easing, betting on impaired dollar credit and capital flowing to alternative assets.
Given doubts about fiscal policy sustainability, the lack of a stable trend in incremental funds, and the price reaching the heavy resistance zone at $80,000, the current market movement should be characterized as a bear market rebound rather than a bull market restart. $SKHYNIX Hynix 1182, silicon wafer procurement surged 104% month-on-month, but prices are falling.
SK Hynix's silicon wafer procurement surged 104% month-on-month, and the AI storage arms race is accelerating. Semiconductor equipment giant BESI expects AI-related revenue to nearly double next year, and Hynix's advanced packaging equipment orders have already started queuing. The fundamentals are indeed improving, but the price dropped from 1230 to 1179, a nearly 4% decline. SAR=1240 is pressing overhead, EMA21=1208 and EMA55=1212 have both been broken. KDJ's J value is -12.2, RSI6=32.14, short-term momentum is indeed weak, but structurally it is already in the oversold area.
At today's 1200 level for Hynix, those chasing highs are starting to hesitate, holders want to sell but are reluctant, buyers are waiting for lower prices, and sellers are waiting for a rebound to offload. The doubling of silicon wafer procurement is a fact, and the price decline is also a fact. When fundamentals and technicals clash, the market usually resolves short-term sentiment issues first. If 1179 does not hold, the next support is near 1160.
Comment below, do you think Hynix is consolidating for a rebound or has it peaked in the short term?🫡$BTC $XAUT Gold has dropped to $4300
I've started to bottom-fish some
$XAUT Gold surged near $4700 earlier, finally ushering in a fairly decent correction.
Today, spot gold has reached around $4300, hitting a more than three-week low, weakening for the fourth consecutive trading day. The main pressure remains inflation concerns driven by rising oil prices and higher US Treasury yields. The market currently prices in about a 67% chance of a rate hike in September.
So my plan is simple:
Buy some at 4300 first, and if it really hits 4200, buy more.
The long-term gold thesis hasn't changed; it's just that we've finally waited for a much more comfortable level than 4700. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 Added $UNI spot
Bought it last year, then cleared it. A few days ago, I came across news that Robinhood officially launched its own public chain, entering RWA and on-chain finance, which seemed very promising. But by the time I saw the news, it was already a bit late; the event happened on July 1st, and I saw it at the end of August. Also, I’m not very familiar with Hood, so researching it would take quite some time, making it easy to miss the opportunity. After thinking it over, I still bought some familiar UNI.
I bought UNI last year because I thought its protocol was very profitable. Uniswap can be said to be one of the most successful and highest-volume protocols in DeFi. I casually bought UNI, then realized that this token almost never captured the success dividends of Uniswap for the long term.
Because of the original fund structure—users pay fees after trading, LPs take the fees, but actual UNI holders only have governance voting rights.
I had some inertia in thinking because most stocks benefit shareholders through revenue growth → profit growth → shareholder benefits. I felt UNI’s fundamentals were strong, but after buying, I realized the token’s value capture was particularly weak.
At the end of 2025, a new mechanism was introduced, which essentially opened the Protocol Fee and directed protocol revenue to UNI burn.
Now, the more Uniswap is used → the more protocol fees → the more UNI is burned.
Although UNI is still not a dividend token, at least it’s no longer purely governance rights; there is at least a deflationary mechanism driven by protocol revenue.$BTC and $XAU are both pulling back, raising an interesting question: how closely are these two “safe-haven” assets actually correlated, and what could come next?
Recently, U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all weakened together, signaling a clear cooling in risk appetite.
But I wouldn’t assume BTC and gold are moving for the same reasons.
Gold is heavily influenced by the dollar, real yields, and central-bank demand. BTC is more sensitive to liquidity, sentiment, and institutional flows.
The biggest variable remains the Federal Reserve.
If rate-hike expectations continue rising, the dollar stays strong, and Treasury yields remain elevated, both assets could face additional short-term pressure.
For BTC, the $75K–$77K area is an important support zone. Until BTC can reclaim $80K, I’d remain cautious rather than aggressively bullish.
For gold, the key question is whether it can stabilize around $4,300. Continued strength in the dollar and Treasury yields could keep pressure on it.
My view: gold looks more defensive in the short term, while $BTC BTC remains more interesting for the longer-term picture.
The real question isn’t simply “gold or digital gold?”
It’s understanding what is driving each market before choosing a side.
#BTC #Gold#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Before the official non-farm payroll release, a series of leading economic data show a clear divergence, intensifying the market's debate over whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September.
Some inflation and employment-related indicators are relatively strong, combined with the hawkish tone from the Jackson Hole meeting delivered by Powell, leading the trading market to increase the pricing probability of a September rate hike; however, some economic activity data are weakening, and the constraints from a weakening economy limit the Fed's room for aggressive tightening. This tug-of-war between bullish and bearish signals is the core meaning of the current "data divergence."
Asset transmission logic:
1. U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar: Strong data segments push short-term bond yields higher and the dollar stronger; if employment weakens, rate cut expectations will quickly recover, causing Treasury yields to fall and the dollar to come under pressure.
2. Precious metals gold and silver: Gold prices are pressured during periods of rising real interest rates; if non-farm payrolls fall significantly short of expectations, rate cut expectations will drive a gold rebound.
3. Risk assets (U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies):
Non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations → rate hike expectations rise again, putting short-term pressure on high-valuation tech stocks, BTC, and ETH;
Non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations → tightening expectations cool down, risk assets enter a recovery phase;
If the final announced figure falls in the middle range, the market will most likely maintain high-level volatility.
The current trading focus is no longer on one-sided bets on rises or falls but on preparing for three scenarios. Non-farm payrolls are just a phase node; the real determinant of September policy will be the subsequent inflation CPI reports. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #HormuzRiskHeatingUp, Energy Inflation in Focus
The situation in the Middle East is heating up again, with risk aversion quickly spreading outward. The South Korean stock market was the first to react sharply.
On Wednesday, South Korea's KOSPI plunged 3.99%, closing at a two-week low and marking the largest single-day drop in nearly two weeks. All major sectors on the market fell sharply, with Samsung, battery manufacturers, and leading car companies generally seeing large declines. Over 80% of stocks closed lower, and foreign investors net sold 1.9 trillion KRW in a single day, as capital accelerates its withdrawal from risk assets.
The logic behind the decline is very clear: the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to a sell-off in global bonds, pushing up government bond yields and directly suppressing market risk appetite. The geopolitical conflict-driven rise in oil prices further deepens market concerns about a rebound in inflation and the difficulty of rapid monetary policy easing.
Adding to the negative news, Israel has confirmed targeted eliminations of Hamas military commanders, indicating no signs of easing in the conflict. Short-term risk aversion is unlikely to dissipate quickly.
Looking at the crypto market, the current environment is not conducive to a strong rally. The recent rebound in Bitcoin is merely a technical correction after a sharp drop, not a trend reversal. Against the backdrop of weakening external stock markets and risk-averse funds flowing back into the US dollar, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable.
Until there is a clear signal of easing geopolitical risks, market volatility and repeated fluctuations will become the norm. Heavy positions chasing highs are not advisable; priority should be given to controlling positions and waiting for the situation to become clearer.
$BTC $XAU $ETH Wednesday, 2026.09.02
Yields on long-term US Treasury bonds have all reached a peak, intensifying the risk of global inflation expectations. US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all declined, but Bitcoin still showed clear strength.
On September 1, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $236 million. Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $8.6 million.
Robinhood's on-chain Meme tokens issued through the Long.xyz platform are leading the market. Long is very much like the PUMP on SOL back then. From my impression, when the pump was hot, it was also during a phase of Bitcoin's upward trend followed by sideways consolidation. At that time, almost no other so-called VC altcoins attracted attention, which is somewhat different from now, but at least it proves the crypto space is active and liquidity is gradually returning.
Market Analysis
Although Bitcoin has declined, it remains relatively strong, repeatedly holding at 76,000. This level may serve as support for a pullback, with a higher possibility of a rebound later. However, if US stocks continue to fall, there is no way Bitcoin can independently maintain an upward trend. Therefore, without external positive stimuli, the current macro environment may not support Bitcoin breaking new highs, as US stocks are performing poorly.
The US stock index dropped significantly yesterday but has not yet broken through support. If it continues to fall today, it might break through, which would be a bearish signal. The market cap hat is on, and US stocks may be bearish for some time.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 72 (Greed) #Diverging data before non-farm payrolls, September rate hike expectations heat up Data doesn't have a one-sided answer, but the market has already taken sides.
August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, below the expected 55.2 and lower than July's 55.6. Although still above 50 and expanding for eight consecutive months, the growth rate is indeed slowing. JOLTS job openings at 7.27 million, below the expected 7.3 million, with June data significantly revised down. Manufacturing is slowing, labor demand hasn't collapsed but isn't strong either—both data points are cooling down, but not fast enough.
The market has already chosen a side. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has surged to 66.9%, with the chance of no change down to 33.1%. Before the Jackson Hole speech, this figure was just over 30%. In other words, the market sees a September rate hike as a high-probability event.
The problem is, the data itself doesn't support such a hawkish pricing. Manufacturing is slowing, job openings are below expectations, and first-quarter non-farm payrolls were revised down by 79,000. The economy is indeed cooling, but the Fed has locked in the inflation target, and oil prices have been pushed above $90 by geopolitical conflicts—sticky inflation combined with energy shocks, the market is pricing in that the Fed will prioritize controlling inflation over preserving employment.
Non-farm payrolls are the final verdict. If the data is below 50,000, the rate hike probability may fall; if above 80,000, the hike is basically set in stone. On September 4th at 8:30 PM, before the data release, watch more and act less. $BTC $XAU @OKX星球 At present, there are still many macroeconomic uncertainties in the next two months, but the high volatility caused by uncertainty is not necessarily a bad thing for us, and the long-awaited golden opportunity may very well appear during this period. 1. The uncertainty in the US-Iran situation leads to high oil prices, high inflation expectations, and global inflation amplifies economic risks, which is an economic uncertainty. #Japan's 10-year government bond yield hits 3% for the first time 2. Inflation risks caused by inflation issues increase the probability of a US rate hike in September. In addition, European countries and Japan have frequently signaled rate hikes or possible rate hikes. A high interest rate environment is unfavorable for risk assets and imposes certain liquidity restrictions. 3. Global government deficit rates continue to hit new highs. This is not the main risk, but combined with the continuous surge in US and Japanese bond yields, it means government trust risks are accumulating, and the bond market faces significant risks. 4. The Japanese yen is very likely to see a rate hike on September 18. The rate hike itself is not the biggest risk; the market worries that after the rate hike, the Bank of Japan will continue to signal sustained rate hikes. The narrowing US-Japan interest rate spread leads to the unwinding of arbitrage trades, liquidity flowing back to Japan, which may cause financial liquidity to continue tightening under high interest rates, unfavorable for risk assets. 5. The US midterm elections, based on history, do not necessarily cause a drop before the election, but yields tend to weaken gradually from the first half to the third quarter, with significantly increased drawdowns and volatility. Although the US stock market is supported by the AI narrative, the AI industry has entered a more rigorous validation phase, and investor sentiment has somewhat contracted. Additionally, referring to history for September-October, USXHOOD has surged to the second highest in traffic, so why does RWA suddenly have a Meme vibe?
Robinhood Chain is really getting interesting this time. The DEX's trading volume in the past 24 hours has already surged close to $1.28 billion, and topics related to XHOOD have directly climbed to the second most popular traffic spot. But if we immediately label this surge as an "RWA explosion," I think it's still too early.
Because what's truly igniting on-chain sentiment is no longer just tokenized stocks.
AI and M00, these kinds of coin-stock Memes, have clearly become active recently. The stock narrative, on-chain assets, and Meme sentiment are starting to mix together. It used to be about moving stocks onto the chain; now it’s more like using stocks as a Meme story backdrop, then leveraging the crypto market’s most familiar high-volatility play to hype up trading volume.
This is actually the most interesting aspect of Robinhood Chain right now.
RWA is responsible for providing the imagination space of "this thing is backed by real-world assets," while Meme provides sentiment, volatility, and trading impulses. One tells the value story, the other attracts people in, and together the trading volume surges.
So for this $1.28 billion, I’m actually not in a hurry to hype it up.
$xHOOD $HOOD #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
The real test will be how much genuine tokenized stock trading remains on-chain after the Meme hype cools down. If the trading volume can still hold up then, it means Robinhood Chain might have truly converted a batch of crypto users into RWA users.
But if the Meme tide recedes and the trading volume drops along with it, then this so-called RWA boom might just be a traditional finance outfit worn by Meme.
And XHOOD surging to the second highest traffic spot precisely shows that what everyone is most interested in right now might not be RWA itself.
It’s that "stocks can actually be played like this."The most unusual scene today: the US-Iran conflict escalates, yet gold is still falling.
Normally, war equals a safe haven, so gold should rise. But today spot gold $XAU actually dropped to around $4304, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of decline. The reason is not that the market fears war less, but that it fears another thing more right now—interest rate hikes.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds
#RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes
#DellAIServerBeat $ETH The strangest thing recently isn't the lack of funds, but that after the capital increased significantly, ETH/BTC did not continue to break through. 1. ETF funds are indeed strengthening In July, the net inflow of US ETH spot ETFs was about $347 million. By August, net inflows expanded to about $1.837 billion, roughly 5.3 times that of July. From August 17 to 31, ETH ETFs continued to see net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.596 billion. Meanwhile, about 42.72 million ETH are currently staking, indicating that some ETH is also entering a lower turnover holding state. So ETH is not lacking allocation funds right now. 2. The real contrast is that ETH/BTC did not continue to break through. On August 18, ETH/BTC was around 0.0296. On August 19, it quickly rose to about 0.0325, with a single-day increase close to 9.7%. But by September 1, it had returned to about 0.03123. In other words, the first round of ETH strengthening relative to BTC had already occurred, but subsequent ETF inflows continued, and the second round of relative strength did not appear immediately. 3. There was a short squeeze in the first round, but on-chain trading funds did not keep up. In the August 19 round, ETH rose about 18% in about 24 hours, accompanied by obvious short liquidations. So that rally was not entirely driven by long-term capital; there was also a one-time short covering. Now, this part of the fuel has weakened. At the same time, Ethereum is internally highBesent wants to ease bank credit, which sounds like loosening the economy, but in a high interest rate environment, it's not that comfortable
Small banks have been tightly squeezed by regulation and financing costs over the years, so relaxing rules could indeed release lending capacity. The problem is whether credit can expand depends not only on whether banks are willing to lend, but also on whether borrowers dare to borrow, whether projects can withstand the interest, and whether bad debts will be exposed with delay
What I fear most is the market hearing "easing credit" as "risk disappearing"
If interest rates remain high, every dollar banks lend out must endure the test of more expensive funding costs. In the short term, it supports growth; in the long term, it may be a test of asset quality. The scariest part of the credit cycle is that everyone is optimistic when loans are made, but when problems arise, we realize who was swimming naked
#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 #New Zealand Interest Rate Hike Implemented, Global Tightening Pace Sees Marginal Easing
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lifting the rate to 2.75%. The market's most critical signal: the risk of large-scale rate hikes in the future has decreased.
The direct trigger for this round of rate hikes came from the Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, driving the country's quarterly inflation up to 4.1%. The central bank judges that the current wage growth and inflation expectations still make it possible to bring inflation back to the 1-3% target range by mid-2027, moving toward a 2% midpoint next year. On the economic front, signs of recovery have appeared after previous weakness, though the recovery pace is uneven.
The central bank also keeps options open; volatility in commodities and uncertainty in external export demand remain potential inflation variables. If price stickiness exceeds expectations, further tightening cannot be ruled out. The overall policy approach is a gradual exit from easing, seeking a balance between controlling inflation, stabilizing growth, and preserving employment.
From the crypto market perspective, although New Zealand is not a core heavyweight economy, its stance is indicative: the most intense phase of the aggressive rate hike cycle is behind us. The market is trading on expectations of "converging rate hike increments."
However, easing does not mean immediate rate cuts; it only means the pace of negative news release is slowing. The short-term Bitcoin rebound is more of a technical correction after a sharp drop. Macroeconomic uncertainties remain, making it difficult for the market to experience a direct, one-sided surge. The time for consolidation and bottoming is likely to be extended, so it is not advisable to blindly chase gains.
$BTC#Pre-nonfarm data divergence, September rate hike expectations heat up #Nonfarm data divergence before release, September rate hike expectations heat up
The recent US employment data is mixed, and market speculation about whether to raise rates in September has suddenly heated up. My view is cautious; employment data has not clearly weakened, so the possibility of a rate hike cannot be ignored, which is not friendly to the crypto space.
Some data shows employment cooling down, but other data remains strong, making the overall picture very divided. Wash previously stated that controlling inflation is the priority, and as long as employment does not collapse significantly, the option to continue raising rates is not ruled out. The market is currently unsettled, waiting for the final nonfarm payroll results to settle the matter.
Looking at the crypto space, the impact is very direct. BTC will be firmly driven by macro factors, making it difficult to have an independent trend. If rate hike expectations continue to rise, the dollar and US Treasury yields will increase, putting pressure on Bitcoin and major altcoins. Altcoins will suffer more, mostly only experiencing short pulses and easily falling with the overall market.
In terms of trading, I will not bet on the data results in advance❌. Volatility will be exaggerated on the eve of the nonfarm payroll release, with frequent spikes, making it unsuitable for heavy positions. Try to reduce leverage on existing positions and avoid chasing highs with long positions. You can wait for the data to be released and the market direction to emerge before entering accordingly. During this period, prioritize position control and put risk management first. $BTC $ETH $SOL
This is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC $XAU The recent rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold has sparked market questions about whether their "safe-haven attributes" are highly linked. However, from a fundamental logic perspective, this high correlation is mostly a short-term resonance under tightening macro liquidity, and such correlation is usually highly sensitive to the time frame.
The US dollar index has risen above 99 and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.8%. Both gold and BTC are non-yielding assets, so this environment is inherently unfavorable. Market risk appetite cools down, with BTC, as a high Beta risk asset, taking the brunt, while gold is pressured by the strengthening dollar.
In the short term, due to higher macro uncertainty from interest rate decisions, gold's traditional defensive attribute gives it a slight edge as a short-term hedge. But over a longer cycle, if the US fiscal deficit continues to expand triggering ultimate liquidity easing, BTC, with its high elasticity and anti-devaluation narrative, still has far greater long-term explosive potential and payoff than gold.
Honestly, these two are completely different categories and should not be confused with each other by the term "safe-haven assets."#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
Oh my, this time they might really raise interest rates.
In August, the US manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6, still above 50, indicating factories are not contracting. But new orders have clearly slowed, and raw material prices remain high.
Tariffs, supply chains, plus the Middle East situation pushing up costs, bosses say they want to expand production, but are already hesitating.
Hiring hasn’t collapsed either; July job openings were 7.27 million, slightly below expectations but a slight rebound from June. This means companies are still hiring, just not as urgently as before. July nonfarm payrolls increased by only 23,000, with the previous two months revised down. Employment is cooling off, not collapsing.
The hardest part now is that the economy isn’t completely broken, and inflationary pressure hasn’t eased. Fed Chair Waller leans hawkish, with September rate hike odds pushed above 60%, and the two-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.36%.
These data alone aren’t enough for the Fed to act immediately; the real decision will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. If the data is weak, rate hike expectations might be cooled off. If strong, the September hike will be more certain.
The direction still depends on interest rates; the pace will be decided after the nonfarm data comes out.
$BTC $ETH Japan's 10-year government bond yield breaks 3% for the first time in 30 years! $500 billion arbitrage trades face liquidation—can BTC still hold?
On Tuesday, Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit 3% intraday, the first time since 1996 to surpass this threshold; the 30-year bond yield broke 4.18%, setting a new record. Meanwhile, long-term bond yields in the UK and Germany also surged simultaneously.
Kazuo Ueda just stated: "Monetary conditions remain accommodative, so we hope to continue raising rates." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is also continuously pressuring Japan to hike rates.
What does this mean? — The yen arbitrage trades are facing systemic liquidation risk.
In recent years, institutions have borrowed yen at nearly zero cost to invest in U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and crypto assets. The 10-year Japanese yield breaking 3% directly pushes up the global financing cost of "cheap money." HSBC points out that rising Japanese bond yields may prompt Japanese investors to sell overseas assets and repatriate funds.
Will history repeat? In August 2024, after Japan raised rates, BTC and ETH both plunged 20% within a week. That was a forced sell-off triggered by margin calls. The current arbitrage trade size may reach $500 billion, and any liquidation impact would be even greater.
My judgment: Rising expectations of Japanese rate hikes are a medium-term bearish factor for BTC. Ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on September 18, BTC may remain under pressure. If 77,000 does not hold, the next support is at 75,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#日本长债收益率升至高位 止损单被扫掉的那一刻，我反而松了一口气。 你有没有过这种体验——明明亏钱了，心里却踏实了？ 今早行情像被人泼了盆冰水，美伊又交火了，伊朗态度比想象中硬，说要和美国打到底。油轮在霍尔木兹海峡那边受阻，布油直接弹回90美元上方。这种消息一出来，风险资产先跪为敬，BTC从高位砸到76000附近，ETH一度失守2400，XRP也跟着趴下。 我挂在1.35的止损被精准触发，最低插到1.33，差两个点就够到我更深的仓位。说实话，那一刻反而觉得清静了。 因为衍生品市场早就把剧本写好了。 你看，价格下跌本身不可怕，可怕的是没人提前定价。但这一轮不一样——资金费率在消息出来前就已经偏向空头，期权市场的偏斜度也在悄悄走陡，说明有资金提前在买下行保护。这不是事后诸葛，是合约持仓量在告诉你：聪明钱早就在对冲了。 所以当消息落地，价格反而是"卖事实"的走法，跌了一波之后开始横住，没有出现连环爆仓的踩踏。这说明什么？市场在交易的是"冲突会持续多久"，而不是"会不会打"。前者是情绪定价，后者才是真正的黑天鹅。 现在的问题是，山寨币的处境比主流币更微妙。BTC和ETH好歹有ETF资金托底，但很多山寨的永续合约资金费率Do you think that on the eve of this US stock market crash, institutions are quietly fleeing or are they positioning themselves in advance for the next surge?
JPMorgan and Castle Securities collectively turned bearish and urged buying hedges, essentially saying the market is paying the price for previous excessive optimism.
1. Hawkish reality shatters rate cut fantasies
Wash's statement was very clear: more than half of commodity and service price increases still exceed 3%. Inflation is much more stubborn than imagined, directly shattering the market's previous one-sided bet on easing.
2. Retail investors lose steam, buying momentum completely dries up
Retail investors are the main force buying US stocks on dips, but in September their buying willingness was cut in half. Institutions are busy building hedges, retail investors no longer take the baton, and the market's defense has dropped to freezing point.
3. Options extremely cheap, hedging cost-effectiveness peaks
Volatility is low, option prices are extremely cheap. Institutions abandoning longs and buying put options now is a smart choice to insure assets at very low cost.
Forecast for the next moves
Short term - before the FOMC meeting
The market is highly fragile; if nonfarm payrolls are too strong, rate hike fears loom; if too weak, recession panic spreads. The S&P 500 is very likely to see a tactical pullback of 3% to 5%.
Mid term - Q4
After squeezing out valuation bubbles and waiting for macro factors to settle, the US stock market will see a genuine bottom rebound.
The current strategy is not to blindly bottom-fish but to take full defense while insurance costs are cheap. Are you currently fully invested holding on hard, or have you already bought hedges?
DYOR Data is at an impasse; the non-farm payrolls are the real judge
The 2-year US Treasury yield remains stable around 4.36%, with the market pricing in a 66%‑66.9% chance of a rate hike in September. ISM and JOLTS data were released consecutively, leaving the market confused without a clear trading direction.
Although the August ISM Manufacturing PMI at 54.6 remains above the expansion threshold, it has declined compared to the previous 55.6 and the market expectation of 55.2, indicating a weakening momentum in manufacturing expansion. July JOLTS job openings reported 7.27 million, below the expected 7.31 million, but slightly improved from the revised 7.18 million in June.
Neither of these data sets is sufficient to directly determine whether the Federal Reserve will choose to raise rates or maintain a wait-and-see stance; the true core variable will be revealed by Friday's non-farm payrolls. Reviewing previous data, July non-farm employment decreased by 23,000, with May and June data cumulatively revised downward by 103,000. If August non-farm payrolls weaken again, market expectations for a rate hike may quickly decline; if the data significantly exceed expectations, it will provide solid data backing for a hawkish policy stance, further increasing the likelihood of a September rate hike.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 77,500, overall suppressed by the macro environment. The situation is quite tricky: manufacturing has not yet contracted, employment is only marginally cooling without systemic collapse, and this intermediate state makes it difficult to decide on rate hike expectations.
It is not recommended to speculate on data trends prematurely; it is more prudent to wait for the non-farm payroll results before planning trading actions. $BTC Storage costs are becoming the invisible battleground of the AI era.
TrendForce predicts that enterprise-grade SSD prices could cumulatively increase by up to 235% by 2026, with about a 35% rise already seen in the second half of 2025.
Even more dramatically, memory spending is consuming an increasing share of cloud providers' capital expenditures:
Currently about 47%, expected to rise further to 68% by 2027.
The stronger the AI, the more data there is;
The more data, the higher the demand for SSDs, memory, and data center infrastructure.
But Filecoin's logic is exactly different:
It operates on global storage hardware deployed before this round of price surges.
No need to build a new data center for the AI wave,
but rather to connect the storage resources that already exist worldwide.
Traditional cloud: continuously increasing CAPEX.
Filecoin: leveraging existing storage supply.
The AI compute arms race is just beginning,
will storage become the next real infrastructure opportunity?
$FIL If you're still afraid to touch it after this price rises, when will you dare to? Are you also hesitating—if you jump in now, should you buy in or get in the stock? Honestly, I was stunned when I saw those screenshots—not envy, but a bit sentimental. Some people went all in and made 200,000 USD. Just one BTC position, 100x leverage, yielded an 825% return. That ETH trade with 50x returns of 577% sounds like a joke, but it's actually a real position story from this market rally. I don't intend to repeat the operation; what I want to talk about is what the market is trading behind the scenes. - Funding rates remain high, and perpetual contract positions are piling up, indicating leveraged funds are actively increasing their holdings and sentiment has moved out of the cautious zone. - After the daily chart W bottom breakout, the pullback confirmed by technical and trend funds has reached a consensus. This is not a single buying pressure supporting the market - The continued net inflows of ETFs are a clear sign, but more importantly, large funds have been accumulating shares at the bottom area, never stopping. Why do I say the most dangerous time is not yet? Because market trading is never about "now," but about "expectations." The Fed rate cut line is not over yet; as long as this expectation is not broken, funds have reason to remain in risk assets. As BTC and ETH, as the two major anchors of the crypto market, as long as they don't collapse, the activity of altcoins will not completely fade. But risks are also hidden in the same logic. High leverage means volatility is amplified, and once the direction reverses, it continuesPersonal market insights, not investment advice. Looking through the trending search list, all market heat is concentrated here. Yesterday, many missed out on $UNI in this wave of DeFi market action. The market won't end here. We break down the listed tokens by sector to see which sector might produce the next hot token. 🟢DeFi sector｜The market has been ignited by UNI, will the sector continue to expand? Representative tokens: $UNI, $AAVE, $CRV $UNI has already generated profit effects. The buyback and burn narrative of $DEX has ignited the market, warming up the entire DeFi sector. $AAVE, the lending leader, is also strengthening today, with funds starting to flow back into the DeFi sector. $CRV, stablecoin swap sector, is recovering along with sector sentiment. DeFi is now the main market theme, with $UNI as the sentiment leader. Hot tokens can easily emerge from the catch-up tokens within the same sector. Risk point: Most of this is speculative expectation trading; if positive news is realized, it may trigger collective sell-offs. 🟡Public chain sector｜Underlying infrastructure, waiting for rotation and breakout Representative tokens: $ARB, $SOL, $SUI, $TRX $ARB, Ethereum L2, hosts many DeFi applications on this chain. With the DeFi market booming, L2 theoretically benefits from sector gains. $SOL and $SUI are new generation public chains with considerable market caps, requiring large capital to drive major market moves.$BTC
BTC is currently undergoing a relatively concentrated macro stress test.
Oil prices are approaching $100, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the dollar is strengthening, and the probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed above 60%. Almost all factors unfavorable to risk assets have converged.
However, BTC has only pulled back from above $80,000 to around $77,000 so far, without any uncontrolled decline.
Therefore, the $75,000–$78,000 range is very critical.
If BTC can still hold this range despite a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, it indicates that the funds that entered in August have not withdrawn easily, and market support still exists.
But if it breaks below and fails to recover for a long time, caution is needed as this may not be just a short-term macro disturbance, but a concentrated profit-taking of the gains accumulated since August.
There is no need to rush to guess the top now; first, observe how long BTC can withstand in such a macro environment.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. DYORThe "top whale" who bought 103 trillion SHIB (17.4% of the total supply) in 2020 for only 37.8 ETH ($13.7K) has today transferred out 600 billion SHIB ($3.09 million).
These 103 trillion SHIB were worth as much as $9.1 billion at the peak price in 2021.
He sold some in 2021 and has been selling gradually this year. In total, he sold 10.06 trillion SHIB ($66.6 million) at about $0.0000066 each, and the address still holds 93.27 trillion SHIB ($478 million).$BTC Divergence in pre-nonfarm data, September rate hike expectations heat up
Following the hawkish stance at Jackson Hole, a series of forward-looking U.S. employment data have shown clear divergence. On one hand, some indicators show signs of cooling, while on the other, wages and service sector conditions remain relatively strong. The market's pricing for a September rate hike continues to rise. Leading signals such as ADP and initial jobless claims are mixed, providing no one-sided answer, which increases the weight of this Friday's nonfarm payroll report. This data will be the most important real-world test before the Fed's September decision.
Current trading has already priced in a high possibility of a rate hike, but the data divergence means there is still room for expectations to reverse. If nonfarm employment and wages strengthen again, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, and risk assets will face valuation pressure; if employment weakens significantly, the market will quickly lower rate hike bets, and growth assets are expected to see a phase of recovery.
It is not advisable to directly bet on a rate hike landing now, as the policy path highly depends on data outcomes. Before the official nonfarm data is released, market volatility will remain high. U.S. Treasuries, stocks, gold, and crypto assets will react sensitively to every employment signal. Caution is needed in operations, waiting for core data to provide a clear direction. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC # Today's News｜Geopolitical turmoil stirs oil prices, global bond markets face sell-off, sharp rise in rate hike expectations
The Middle East conflict escalates again, with the US military striking Iranian targets, causing oil prices to surge sharply. US crude oil holds steady above $90, and inflation concerns resurface. The global bond market experiences concentrated sell-offs, with long-term government bond yields in the US, Japan, and the UK rising simultaneously. The US 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.8%, and the market pushes the probability of a Fed rate hike in September close to 67%, putting collective pressure on risk assets and triggering a pullback.
US stocks have fallen for three consecutive sessions, with the tech hardware sector retreating noticeably. Most AI leaders closed lower, and funds shifted to defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals. The crypto market weakened along with the broader market, continuously fluctuating under the dual pressure of rising interest rates and risk aversion sentiment. Institutional funds are exiting for safety, short-term contract selling pressure increases, and the market repeatedly tests key support levels. Gold experienced an abnormal decline, as the rising holding costs caused by high US Treasury yields outweigh geopolitical safe-haven buying.
The market will next focus on non-farm payroll data, with the strength or weakness of the data further defining the Fed's policy path. Current macro uncertainties have significantly increased, making blind bottom-fishing inadvisable. Priority should be given to controlling positions and waiting for key data to be released before making further judgments.
**Risk Warning: The above content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.**$BTC price has reached a critical level again, this time! The indicators for both bulls and bears are quite clear! But don't rush to go long.
Currently, I won't consider Bitcoin's price at 77,500 as the starting point of a new major uptrend.
Because in my view, it hasn't even stopped the main downtrend since the drop from 81,500, so how can it be the start of a major uptrend?
The current price can only be seen as a key turning point in the market, also the first significant recovery since the drop from 81,500.
Looking at the indicators, this recovery is not bad; multiple indicators on the 30-minute level show bullish resonance, and the bearish momentum on the 1-hour level is also waning.
The starting point of the next market phase depends not on whether the price can smoothly break through 78,000, but on whether there is a key increase in volume.
If volume increases and breaks through at this level and holds, I will raise the targets to 79,000, 81,000, and 85,000.
If the price is pushed down again near 78,000 while open interest continues to rise but the price can't move up, then sorry, I will side with the bears, targeting a break below 77,000 or even 76,000.
Although during the downtrend, there have been multiple sporadic strong buy orders, each sudden surge pulling the price up by one or two thousand points, many thought the downtrend was ending.
I have also carefully considered multiple indicators and current hot topics in the community for a comprehensive analysis.
I believe bears don't need to be so pessimistic; the downtrend may not be over yet.
Looking back at August's market, we find some very key information.
Since the breakout on August 19, the price surged from 64,000 to 81,500.
According to the latest reviews from relevant institutions, during the breakout week, spot market growth outpaced contract growth, while contract open interest kept declining.
This means real money was indeed buying, not just everyone opening longs in contracts.
Statistics show that in August, US ETFs had a net inflow of about $3 billion.
There were many factors driving the price up: ETF inflows, dollar depreciation, favorable policies, and short squeezes.
After more than half a month, these factors have been fully digested.
The environment has changed now.
Today, the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.8%, the dollar has strengthened again, and the market has even raised expectations for a rate hike in September.
The issue in September is not whether the price can rise back to 80,000, but whether there is money willing to buy after each drop.
Looking at the charts, MACD is recovering. DIFF is clearly moving up toward DEA.
RSI has returned to a neutral state.
The Bollinger middle band around 75,400 has also been repaired.
These signals look like a perfect bearish resonance.
But don't rush to conclusions.
Because the resistance from 77,700 to 80,000 is very strong; the Bollinger upper band, Donchian upper band, and SuperTrend are all in this area. KDJ is also in this area, triggering overbought signals, and more importantly, open interest has been pulled up.
Overall, bullish and bearish indicators are about to clash.
Resistance above, support below.
Considering the macro environment, resistance is hard to eliminate, but support can easily be shaken by the market.
Therefore, consolidation is very likely to continue.
The above is just my personal opinion and not investment advice!"Last night, the US stock market fell, but $BTC didn't really crash along.
Oil prices surged, US Treasury yields also rose, and high-valuation indexes like the Nasdaq took the hit first. $BTC is still hovering around 78,000, hasn't reclaimed 80,000 yet, but at least it wasn't dragged down together.
On Friday, $200 million flowed out of ETFs, and on Monday, over $200 million flowed back in, so the money hasn't completely fled.
That's how it is now: when the US stock market falls, it doesn't rise; when the US stock market stabilizes, it doesn't necessarily surge immediately.
Let's first see if it can reclaim 80,000.
If it can't, altcoins should avoid too much fuss.US August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, still above 50. July JOLTS openings were 7.27M, below the 7.31M consensus but up from June's revised 7.18M. The data are mixed: factory momentum slowed, but labor demand has not collapsed. CME pricing puts the chance of a 25bp September hike near 66%-66.9%. August payrolls arrive Sep 4 at 12:30 UTC. For BTC and equities, the key is whether the report reprices.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat Bitcoin is today between $76,700–$77,700. Yesterday it fell back from $79,200 to $76,400, marking a pullback at the start of September.
Geopolitical issues interrupted the August ETF + liquidation rally. Spot is still active but has turned into a tug-of-war: outflows last Friday, then IBIT brought back about $217 million the next day.
$77,000 is more important than $81,000. Holding this level keeps the August monthly line intact; breaking below and failing to recover means a failed breakout. To rise above $80,000 again depends on spot; we can no longer wait for liquidations.
(Data as of 2026-09-02)
#Bitcoin #BTC #MarketAnalysis$STABLE I originally just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up handing me half a year's worth of dumplings.
Last night before bed, I took another look at the chart; STABLE was hovering around 0.02748. The movement looked like it hadn’t fully woken up, but buy orders underneath were quietly thickening. I thought the risk was limited at this level, so I placed long orders and waited for it to choose a direction. Who knew that when I woke up this morning, the candlestick shot up with a big bullish candle, pulling me from a sweet dream into an even better one.
Now it’s surged to 0.02885, +101.16% in hand. This gain feels really satisfying; everyone in the car must have woken up smiling.
The market is something you wait for, profits are something you hold for; panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking. This bottom consolidation wasn’t endured in vain, I finally caught the rhythm right.
First, manage the position: take profit on 75%, move the stop loss on the remaining 25% to the cost price for protection, and let it run on its own. Hold as long as the trend holds, exit if it breaks; don’t fall in love with the market.
For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Wait for the next signal before making a move, and patiently await good news.
$BTC $SOL Where is the money station?
The net inflow on the position side best reveals the direction of smart money. $BTC has a cumulative net inflow of +41 million over seven days. Although 500 million ran off on 8/28 (the day of the Fed hawkish stance), 230 million flowed back in the next two days before 160 million flowed out again, resulting in an overall net positive. What about $ETH? It has a cumulative net outflow of -501 million, completely bottoming out.
Regarding fees, $BTC's daily average is 0.0082%, with bulls still honestly paying fees, and position crowding is not extreme. $ETH's daily average is 0.0036%, dropping to 0.0001% on 9/02, with bulls basically lying flat. Such a low level indicates that $ETH bulls have been worn down to the limit; it’s either the bottom or it will continue to drift down, forcing the last wave of bulls to surrender. $FIL suddenly got interesting today. OKSpot 24h is about +13.2%, with the price rising from around $0.69 all the way up to a high of $0.811, and now still hovering around $0.79. Looking at the candlestick alone, this is a very nice breakout. But what I care more about is: the price is still high, and the funds in the contracts have started to diverge. FIL's open interest (OI) surged from about 60.3 million to 63.7 million in the past few hours. This indicates that when the price was pulled up, a large number of new positions entered. But then the OI fell back to around 62.6 million. In other words: the price hasn't dropped significantly, but some leveraged positions have already withdrawn. This is actually the most important signal to watch now. Looking at the top traders: a few hours ago, the long position ratio among top holders was about 70.4%. Now it has dropped to about 68.6%. Not a flip to short, but the direction is clear: the higher the price goes, the top funds are not continuing to aggressively add longs. Meanwhile, FIL perpetual funding rate is now about 0.01%, long sentiment has clearly risen but hasn't reached an out-of-control level. So right now FIL is not simply "strong" or "weak." It's more like: after the first batch of funds pulled the price up, the market is starting to decide who is willing to take the second leg. I won't chase just because FIL rose 13%. Nor will I turn bearish immediately because OI fell. I only watch two things. First, whether it can retake around 0.81. BTC vs ETH Money-Making Ability Comparison, PK Day | Verdict: $BTC Wins.
First, the verdict
This round, $BTC crushed $ETH to the ground. Over 7 days, $BTC dropped 3.45%, $ETH dropped 3.93%. The difference looks small, but $BTC still had a net inflow of 41 million, while $ETH lost 500 million. Smart money voted with their feet. On the days when Powell turned hawkish, $ETH panicked and fled, while $BTC stayed steady like an old dog and even attracted inflows. The zero fee rate for $ETH looks like a bottom signal, but in this PK match, $BTC’s fee rate holding at 0.008% actually shows bulls still have faith. "Hurry up and start school," $ETH bulls really need to go back and study.
Returns and Drawdowns Face to Face
In the 7-day period (8/27-9/02), $BTC fell from 80,208 to 77,440, a return of -3.45%. $ETH fell from 2,509 to 2,411, a return of -3.93%. The difference seems small, but the drawdown data shows a wider gap: $BTC’s max drawdown was 3.5%, $ETH’s was 3.9%.
Looking at volatility more directly: $BTC’s 7-day annualized volatility was 28.7%, $ETH’s was 34.6%. With the same drop, $ETH endured 6 percentage points more volatility, so its Sharpe ratio naturally looks worse. $BTC’s Sharpe was -7.30, $ETH’s was -7.90.