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5 Quick Takes on Today's Market Quick Take 1: Oil Prices Are the Main Director Brent crude oil broke through $96.56/barrel today, up 2% intraday, with a cumulative surge of 51% year-to-date. What does 51% mean? If you bought oil for 1 million at the start of the year, it’s now 1.51 million. The bond market crashed first, who’s next? Oil prices are the "main director" of this global asset repricing round. It’s not the Fed, not Trump, it’s oil. Quick Take 2: Global Bond Markets Are Undergoing a "Rate Reset" The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.798%. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit 3%, the highest in 30 years since 1996. The UK 10-year government bond yield is 5.255%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Germany’s 10-year yield also surged to its highest since 2011. This is not a problem of any single country. This is a global rate reset. Borrowing costs are soaring, and global governments’ interest expenses are exploding. The "dry wood" accumulated from fiscal stimulus has been ignited by the Iran conflict. The cash you hold is being squeezed from both inflation and rising interest rates. Quick Take 3: BTC Falls Below 77,000 — Why Doesn’t It Rise Amid War? Bitcoin dropped to a low of $76,454 today. Some ask: Shouldn’t safe-haven assets rise during war? Wrong. The current market logic is: "Oil price up → inflation up → Fed rate hikes" → all risk assets come under pressure. BTC’s safe-haven attribute is temporarily overshadowed by "rate hike fears." It’s not that Bitcoin is weak; the macro narrative is just too strong. Quick Take 4: 66% Chance of Fed Rate Hike in September, Two Weeks to Decide The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has surged to 66%. Before the speech by Waller at Jackson Hole on August 28, this number was just over 30%. It doubled in less than a week. September 11 CPI data + September 15 FOMC meeting = the most important macro window of 2026 in the next two weeks. No contest. CPI beats expectations → rate hike → risk assets crash. CPI misses expectations → no rate hike → risk assets rebound. That simple. And that brutal. Quick Take 5: Only Two Scenarios If oil prices stay above $90, inflation expectations will heat up further. BTC’s next script has only two options: Scenario A: Bottom near 77,000, wait for macro reversal → get through it, and it’s spring. Scenario B: Continue to fall with risk assets → another drop ahead. Which way? Watch the September 11 CPI. Before then, all moves are guesses. The bond market has already crashed. Oil prices keep rising. The rate hike probability keeps climbing. Before September 11, hold your hands, don’t act rashly. $BTC $BZ $XAU #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注