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$SNDK Why did the US stock market drop last night? Let's calmly talk about it.
Last night, the Nasdaq fell 1%, with tech stocks taking the hardest hit.
On the surface, it looks like a US-Iran conflict, oil prices surged 5%, and inflation expectations were immediately ignited. But the real powder keg was those few words from Walsh.
The meaning is, if inflation doesn't come down, I'll keep tightening, don't expect me to go easy.
The market was directly scared out of its wits, with the probability of a September rate hike soaring to 68%.
Many people panic at the mention of a rate hike and shout crash at the mention of war. But the worst thing in trading is to be led by the news.
A rate hike may not necessarily come.
The CPI data on the 11th is the real judgment day; if the data is strong, a rate hike is nailed down; if the data is weak, there’s still room to breathe. The Fed always talks tough first, pumping up expectations, and if they don’t actually hike, it will be treated as a positive.
How long the 5% oil price surge can last is still unknown; geopolitically driven price hikes come fast and go fast. This Middle East issue will probably calm down after a couple of days of hype.
Institutions are guessing too; you can see the market jumping around these days, big money itself has no direction.
Next, we wait for the CPI data on the 11th. Before that, the market will just swing up and down, rising one day and falling the next.
Reduce positions, don’t bet heavily on one side. Don’t get carried away on either long or short; the direction will only become clear once the data lands. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 #OilTankerRiskLiftsOil moved from production to transportation. Brent above $90 matters because even available barrels become expensive when tankers face disruption, insurance costs rise and shipping routes tighten.
Venezuela can't quickly fill that gap either. If transport risk persists, freight and fuel costs can spread inflation far beyond crude itself.
That's where BTC gets tested. An energy shock may support the inflation-hedge story, but higher yields and tighter liquidity can hit.如果一只币的名字直接叫"没用"，它却从 0.033 一路涨到 0.12，那你到底是该笑它，还是该笑自己？ 你有没有一瞬间，也对着一个明知是泡沫的标的，心里想着"我就做一波就跑"，结果手却很诚实地挂上了空单？ 今天想聊的其实不是 $USELESS 本身，而是它背后那种特别典型的山寨情绪：越觉得荒谬，越有人冲进去赌；越知道是顶部区域，越有人想卖在最高点。这种博弈里，真正赚钱的从来不是判断最准的人，而是资金成本扛得住的人。 我看到的是，这轮山寨的节奏和去年很不一样。去年很多币是阴跌，你慢慢买、慢慢摊，总有一波反弹给你解套的机会。现在不一样，很多小币种是直接断头铡，比如 $XAN 被下架、$XPL 跌了 99%、$IP 也归零了。这种走法说明一个事情：市场的容错率在变低，资金不再愿意给垃圾时间买单。 跨市场联动这个视角，现在特别值得拿出来看。BTC 只要横住，ETH 稍微动一下，山寨就敢自己讲故事；但一旦 BTC 出现小时级别的插针，山寨的跌幅往往是 BTC 的三到五倍。这意味着什么？意味着山寨现在的定价权根本不在自己手里，而是在大饼的波动率里。你研究再多的基本面，不如盯一眼 BTC 的资金费I wonder if anyone has noticed a subtle change: the voices shouting about the last dip in the market are gradually decreasing.
BTC and ETH remain fragile on the charts. Despite the sharp fluctuations caused by news between the US and Iran, there has been no complete crash. One signal worth noting: the price movements of BTC, ETH, and gold are becoming increasingly similar, with their correlation strengthening and gradually detaching from the influence of US stock market fluctuations. Even though gold's market size far exceeds that of crypto, the narrative shift in assets has quietly taken place.
On the fundamentals side, positive factors are still present. BTC and ETH ETFs continue to see capital inflows, institutional spot buying is increasing, and there is clear expectation for legislation to be enacted.
However, all these positives cannot outweigh the power of interest rate hike expectations, which remain the biggest Damocles sword hanging over the market.
Currently, we are in a chaotic phase of bulls and bears battling, with news driving the market more than technical trends. Before major data releases, repeated market oscillations will be the norm. We might as well patiently wait and observe whether the market can produce a decisive candlestick that provides a clear direction.
$ETH $BTC $XAU
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Bitcoin starts to face continuous pressure
Recently, you really can't just think about bottom-fishing
$BTC has already returned to around $77,400 today, with the entire crypto market's 24-hour market cap dropping nearly 4%.
I've been reminding to pay attention to ETF fund changes recently, and now there's another signal worth watching:
In the latest trading day, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $35.3 million again.
However, over the past 7 days, there is still a net inflow exceeding $1.1 billion, so it can't be directly defined as institutional withdrawal yet.
The real trouble is the external environment.
Oil prices are rising, US Treasury yields are climbing, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are heating up again. This environment itself will suppress risk assets like BTC.
So now I am a bit more cautious about BTC than at the end of August.
77,000 is the first line of defense.
If it holds here and recovers back above 80,000, I still consider it a high-level shakeout.
If ETFs continue to see outflows and 77,000 doesn't hold, then this round of correction may go further down.
$BTC #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 SanDisk's recent peak escape had me watching the market and laughing for a long time. That feeling of "just stepping back from the cliff edge" is sweeter than eating candy🫧 Have you ever had such a moment—where the price is still falling, but you just know that at that point, it's time to go? Today, SanDisk dipped to a low of 1511, and I exited in batches at 1512 and 1513. Looking back, there was indeed a thin layer of support around 1500, but the whole day's movement was "drop a bit, sideways a bit, drop again, sideways again," a sticky, sluggish rhythm with no desire for a volume-driven rebound. This kind of movement is most dangerous when you greedily hold out for the last bit of profit and end up stuck inside. I chose to clear out before the US market opened, not because I was bearish, but because "uncertainty" itself is already a risk. Just because it doesn't fall during the day doesn't mean it won't at night. When the US market opens, the direction will truly be revealed. Entering then is much more comfortable than guessing blindly now. This trade added another entry to my ledger with a 95% win rate, but honestly, I'm happy not because of how much I earned, but because of the reassuring feeling of "market intuition being validated." What is the market really trading now? It's not SanDisk itself, but a re-pricing of the AI return cycle. Broadcom and Dell are about to report earnings, and the market's patience regarding "whether investments can translate into profits" is thinning. Any slight disturbance could cause funds to withdraw from hardware stocks to seek safety. - Bullish path: If US market sentiment holds steady tonight, SanDisk will pull back to 15 SanDisk is gaining strength again
The AI storage market may not be over yet
$SNDK has recently seen a return of capital, with intraday gains exceeding 5% on the previous trading day. This is not just due to the renewed hype around AI concepts; enterprise-grade SSDs are entering a new phase of volume expansion.
What the market is truly trading now is the storage demand driven by AI and the tight supply of NAND. Mizuho still rates SanDisk as Outperform, with a target price slightly lowered from $1900 to $1875, but expects SanDisk's earnings to potentially grow about 5 times from fiscal years 2026 to 2028.
Moreover, SanDisk and Kioxia just announced plans to invest approximately $31 billion in Japan by 2032 to expand flash memory production capacity.
I previously mentioned that this level is a good point to take some profits, mainly because the gains this year have been quite exaggerated.
But in the long term, AI's demand for storage is far from over.
SanDisk's biggest issue now is not fundamentals, but that good assets have already been priced very expensively by the market.
$SNDK There is no longer a so-called "altcoin season" in the crypto space.
The market has never lacked newcomers, nor has it ever lacked capital.
Capital is fluid. As long as the crypto space continues to create wealth effects, new capital will keep flowing in.
But where will the money flow in the future?
The answer is becoming clearer:
After institutionalization, capital will only become more concentrated.
The assets that can truly receive long-term institutional allocation are likely BTC, ETH, and a very few mainstream assets, no more than ten.
So my position logic has always been simple:
90% ETH, 10% allocated to SOL, UNI, and other secondary mainstream assets.
Why prioritize ETH even over BTC?
Because the E/B exchange rate has already given the answer.
The long-term structure I understand, institutions obviously understand as well. If ETH’s odds relative to BTC are higher over the next 2–3 years, then from a capital efficiency perspective, there’s no need to hold two highly correlated assets simultaneously; instead, concentrate the core position on ETH with the higher odds.
As for the so-called "altcoins" and "altcoin season," these are increasingly outdated concepts.
Five years ago, the era when small investors could get rich quick by speculating on altcoins did exist.
But the market structure has changed.
If today you still put the vast majority of your positions on the so-called "altcoin season," waiting for funds to rotate there automatically after BTC and ETH rise, you are more likely to face continuous new lows rather than sudden wealth.
Newcomers will leave.
But don’t worry about the crypto space lacking people.
The market will never lack the next batch of newcomers, nor will it ever lack the next influx of capital. $SOL fell back to $100
I actually started paying attention again
SOL followed the entire crypto market's pullback today, once dropping near $100, with a 24-hour decline of over 3%.
But this month, SOL has a very important catalyst.
Solana's Alpenglow upgrade has entered the activation phase, currently planned to launch on September 28. One of the biggest changes in this upgrade is further improving Solana's confirmation speed and consensus mechanism.
Plus, with the earlier inflation reduction proposal passed, SOL is actually improving two issues at the same time:
The network is getting faster, and the new coin supply growth is slowing down.
So near $100, I wouldn't be bearish just because of a one-day pullback.
If BTC can stabilize again later, I think SOL, as a large-cap alt with ETF funds, upgrade catalysts, and supply improvements, will still be a coin worth watching in September.
$SOL $BTC Just took a look at CME FedWatch: the Fed's rate hike probability has surged to 68%, up from less than 40% a week ago.
Current impact on global assets:
US Treasuries: The policy-sensitive 2-year yield has risen significantly (once near or above 4.34%), the 10-year yield climbed to about 4.75%–4.79%, hitting a multi-month high. The short end usually rises more than the long end, flattening the curve, reflecting the market pricing in near-term hikes while some believe the anti-inflation resolve may lower forward inflation premiums.
US Stocks: On September 1, the three major indices closed down, with the Dow down about 0.8%, the S&P 500 about 0.7%, and the Nasdaq about 1%. Growth and tech stocks, more sensitive to discount rates, were under greater pressure. Rising yields increase corporate financing costs and depress forward earnings valuations.
US Dollar: Strengthened, putting pressure on other currencies.
Gold and Crypto Assets: Gold fell significantly from highs (dropping over 3% on the day of Powell's speech, then continuing to weaken), and Bitcoin also came under pressure simultaneously. Rising real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Crude Oil: Often rises due to geopolitical conflicts, which in turn reinforces inflation concerns, creating a "oil price–inflation expectations–rate hike pricing" feedback loop.
The market reaction has already priced in the September rate hike. In the next two weeks, attention will focus on nonfarm payroll and CPI data. If inflation and employment remain strong, the probability of a September hike could rise further above 80%; if they cool significantly, it may return to a roughly 50-50 chance or even lower. Bitcoin Is Weak. But The Market Is Starting To Rotate Beneath The Surface.
$BTC is still struggling below $80K.
And the latest ETF data makes the setup even more interesting.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded about $236.5M in net outflows on September 1, reversing the $216.7M inflow from the previous session.
At first glance, that looks bearish.
But I’m not convinced the entire market is simply exiting crypto.
September is showing something different.
The institutional ETF market is becoming much broader, with products tied to $ETH, $SOL and $XRP now competing for capital alongside Bitcoin. 2
And that changes how I’m reading the current weakness.
$ETH is sitting near the $2.4K area while Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $80K.
$SOL is especially interesting because U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded fresh inflows as September opened. 3
$XRP remains another major asset I’m watching as regulated crypto exposure expands.
This is where the rotation thesis becomes interesting.
$BNB remains a major liquidity hub.
$SUI and $APT are two L1s I’m watching for relative strength if capital moves deeper into altcoins.
$AVAX, $NEAR and $SEI could also become important if risk appetite returns.
Then there is DeFi.
$AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE remain on my radar because capital rotation usually creates opportunities beyond the majors.
For infrastructure, $LINK remains one of the most important assets in the oracle ecosystem, while $ONDO continues to benefit from the tokenized-asset narrative.
And if traders start moving back toward higher-beta sectors, $TAO, $RENDER and $FET could attract attention quickly.
But there is still one major problem.
Macro.
The U.S. 10Y yield has climbed to around 4.81%, Brent crude is near $95, and markets are pricing roughly a 67–68% probability of a September Fed hike. 4
That makes it harder for crypto to sustain a clean breakout.
So I’m watching two things at the same time.
Price.
And where capital is moving.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat BNB settled at $688.66, 1.9% lower on the week. bStocks give BNB Chain a distribution advantage while the equity economics stay with the custodial shares.
BNB benefits only while settlement and gas demand stay inside the stack.
One exchange still supplies most of the volume.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #BTCGoldCorrelationTest #DellAIServerBeat Grantham, the legendary Wall Street prophet, has accurately predicted three major crises.
The tech stock market has turned into a ghost story, predicting a 70% plunge in tech stocks.
1. AI is the fourth industrial revolution, with capital markets pouring in regardless of cost
2. Tech giants are crazily raising funds and borrowing money, wildly increasing capital expenditures to build computing power centers
3. The narrative has become "If you don't invest, you'll be left behind by the times"—exactly like the CDS before the 2008 subprime crisis
4. Nvidia builds a computing power financing platform, essentially layering risk transfer
5. Ordinary people are always the last to pay the price
His core view: history does not simply repeat, but human nature never changes.
Grantham makes sense, but he is talking about US tech stocks, not the crypto market.
The bubble in traditional finance is always a "leverage + narrative" cycle. In 2008 it was mortgage CDS, in 2026 it will be AI computing power financing. Each time it’s a new packaging, but the essence remains—borrowing money to speculate on expectations, with ordinary people left holding the bag.
What’s different about the crypto market:
- BTC has no "financing platform," no CDS, no layered leverage transfer
- You hold spot, you are your own bank
- When the US tech stock bubble bursts, where will the money flow? Gold, BTC, commodities—safe-haven assets
So Grantham’s warning only affects me in one way:
It’s right not to touch US tech stocks. Hold BTC spot firmly and keep waiting. When the bubble bursts, those holding spot won’t die; those with leverage will.$BTC $ETH $SOL Yesterday, BTC dropped from 79,225 to 76,420, now hovering around 77k. In 24 hours, liquidations reached 239 million, with longs accounting for 82.9%, and over 100 million cleared in one hour — looks scary, but it's actually aftershocks from the 3 billion liquidation wave on August 19-20 (92% shorts).
The strange thing is: open contracts haven't dropped below a 5-month low (about 587,600 BTC), funding rates even turned negative, and leverage has already been washed out. This time it's not a long squeeze, but a macro slap.
In August, ETFs net injected 3.5 billion, and on September 1, they recovered 216.7 million (IBIT took 95%). Spot funds haven't left, but leveraged funds are gone. So as long as 76.8k (the low before 8/28) holds, spot is supporting the bottom; 79k-81k is a triple wall of URPD heavy chips + ETF cost + 50-week moving average (81k). Without volume, don't expect to break through by force. Sideways consolidation with wicks means shaking out traders, not a sell-off. Full leverage positions die first, spot holders wait for the wall to break. #BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage under test #Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注 #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 $TRUMP volume and price signals have huge flaws in meme coins
In regulated markets, trading volume is an important reference; but in the crypto space for small-cap meme coins, whales can fake trading volume by wash trading: buying and selling between their own accounts, making the candlestick charts look like volume is increasing, but in reality, no real funds are flowing in or out.
Common real and fake volume and price signals
1. Volume and price signals at the top
Price parabolically surges with huge volume, but the price cannot rise further (volume increases but price stagnates): frantic trading with sharply reduced gains, this is a classic distribution signal where big players sell to incoming retail investors.
Volume far exceeds market cap, daily turnover reaches several hundred percent, social media is flooded with FOMO posts, often close to the peak.
On the futures side: open interest (OI) surges, funding rates remain extremely high for a long time, everyone is going long, making it easy for a violent dump to trigger a long squeeze.
⚠️ However! Whales can fake volume increases to create a "distribution illusion," tricking retail investors into shorting, then pumping again to kill both longs and shorts.
2. Volume and price signals at the bottom
After a sustained plunge, a volume spike during a crash (panic selling), followed by continuous volume contraction, indicating selling pressure is exhausted.
Don't buy the dip just because the price has fallen a lot; a big drop ≠ the bottom, meme coins can drop 99% and then drop another 99%.
Fatal misconception:
"Lowest volume means lowest price" does not hold for small coins controlled by whales. As long as whales stop trading, the market shows very low volume and can be dumped further at any time. #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员: Dell's performance exceeds expectations, Broadcom and Snowflake take over AI computing power demand explodes, Nvidia profits, now Dell proves with its earnings report that this is not just a story.
Dell's Q2 revenue reached $47 billion, up 58% year-on-year, a record high, exceeding expectations by more than $2 billion. The most impressive is AI servers, with single-quarter orders of 60.9 billion, backlog directly reaching 95 billion, and the full-year guidance raised from 167 billion to 192 billion. These AI servers basically all use Nvidia's GPUs, Huang Renxun profits, Dell follows along. But the CEO also complained: nothing is lacking except DRAM, storage can't keep up.
Dell has validated hardware demand, and there are two more to follow.
Broadcom's Q2 AI revenue was 10.8 billion, up 143% year-on-year, with Q3 guidance directly calling for 16 billion. Google, Meta, and ByteDance are its clients; in the custom AI chip business, Broadcom is the most stable besides Nvidia.
Snowflake's Q2 report is also coming out these days; last quarter revenue was 1.39 billion, up 33%, with after-hours surge of 35%. AI programming agent Cortex Code has started making money, and enterprises are migrating AI workloads to its platform.
In short, from Nvidia's GPUs to Dell's servers, then to Broadcom's custom chips and Snowflake's data software, the entire AI industry chain is delivering, this is not just a story.
Personal opinion, just sharing.Two different institutional crypto treasury strategies, no absolute superiority but completely different logic
Strategy and BitMine almost simultaneously started increasing their holdings, representing two completely different institutional crypto asset accumulation models. Neither path is right or wrong; their focuses are entirely different.
Strategy ended a ten-week pause and resumed buying $BTC, with funds coming from stock market issuance. The average purchase price this round was $80,320. As BTC prices fell, this position currently shows a slight unrealized loss. Its total BTC holdings have reached 845,050 coins. This model relies on equity financing to acquire Bitcoin, with returns entirely dependent on BTC price appreciation. As long as the coin price rises long-term, it can offset the dilution effect from equity issuance, but it cannot generate cash flow. Short-term price fluctuations directly impact accounting performance.
On the other hand, BitMine has continuously increased its ETH holdings for 65 consecutive weeks, recently adding over 5,350 $ETH. Its core difference is that a large amount of ETH is staked, generating ongoing staking rewards and forming a stable cash flow source.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 Robinhood Chain has been very popular recently. When I saw the four characters "on-chain stock," my first reaction was still to check the contract.
Robinhood's official statement is very straightforward: Classic Stock Token is a derivative that tracks the price of US stocks or ETFs, and what is recorded on-chain is the contract between you and Robinhood Europe. You do not actually own the stock, nor do you have voting rights. Currently, these tokens cannot be transferred to external wallets or other platforms.
It handles corporate actions such as stock splits and mergers, and distributes equivalent cash dividends when conditions are met. The benefits are that you can invest starting from 1 euro and trade 24 hours on business days, but there is an additional layer of Robinhood's performance and bankruptcy risk. The official risk disclosure states that in extreme cases, you may lose your entire investment.
When I look at this type of product, I first check who custodies the underlying assets, whether the tokens can be freely transferred, and exactly which contract you hold. The term "on-chain" changes the recording and settlement method but does not automatically grant shareholder rights.
Source: Robinhood official support documentation. Personal record, not investment advice.
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #RWABTC ETF buyers are back, so why did Bitcoin drop back to 77,000?
The US spot BTC ETF saw a clear resurgence of buying at the end of August.
From August 17 to 27, there were net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about $3 billion; on August 31, there was another net inflow of $217 million, with BlackRock's IBIT product alone contributing $206 million.
But BTC has now returned to around $77,000.
This indicates that the market is not lacking buyers, but macro selling pressure is temporarily stronger.
Oil prices have risen back above $90, the US 10-year Treasury yield is close to 4.8%, and the market's probability of a rate hike in September has risen above 60%. ETF funds are flowing in, but high interest rates and a strong dollar are pressuring risk assets on the other side.
Here, a signal worth watching has emerged:
ETFs have bought $3 billion consecutively, but BTC has not continued to surge, indicating sellers above; yet despite such strong macro pressure, BTC can still hold around $77,000, which also indicates buyers below.
So going forward, we cannot just look at "how much net inflow the ETF has today."
What really matters are two combinations.
If ETFs resume continuous net inflows and US Treasury yields start to fall, and BTC climbs back above $80,000, it means institutional buying is truly driving the second phase of the rally.
If ETFs continue to receive funds but BTC never breaks above $80,000, it means this buying is being absorbed by profit-taking, macro pressure, or other spot selling.Điều đáng chú ý nhất lúc này không phải BTC sẽ tăng hay giảm trong vài ngày tới, mà là dòng tiền đang lựa chọn ở lại với tài sản nào khi thanh khoản toàn cầu trở nên khắt khe hơn. BTC hiện quanh $77K, trong khi lợi suất trái phiếu Kho bạc Mỹ kỳ hạn 10 năm lên khoảng 4,81% và kỳ vọng Fed tăng lãi suất trong tháng 9 gia tăng. Điều này tạo áp lực lên toàn bộ tài sản rủi ro. Nhưng đây chưa giống một cuộc tháo chạy khỏi thị trường crypto. Nó giống một quá trình tái phân bổ dòng tiền hơn. $BTC — nơi d$XAU sharply corrected, don't panic excessively over short-term news
Gold prices experienced a sharp short-term pullback, falling from 4700 to around 4360, with a weekly decline close to 7.1%. Intraday, it briefly approached the 100-day moving average before rebounding on support.
This round of decline was mainly influenced by the Fed's hawkish stance, with the market raising expectations for a September rate hike and the stronger dollar suppressing gold prices. However, it is important to note that while ETFs and retail investors are selling, global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings. The underlying mid-to-long-term logic such as geopolitical conflicts has not disappeared, and institutions remain optimistic about future prospects. Currently, short-term indicators have entered oversold territory.
The market is in a high volatility phase, with opportunities for both bulls and bears, but it is necessary to wait for clear signals of a bottom or resistance from the market before making decisions, and strictly set risk protections. Short-term volatility is intense, so blind bottom-fishing is not advisable.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 #Divergence in pre-nonfarm data, September rate hike expectations heat up
What impact do rate hikes have on gold and crypto?
Rate hike expectations have already hit gold and crypto once.
On the day of Wash's speech on the 28th, spot gold dropped about 3% from its high, closing around $4450, with silver falling even more sharply. Bitcoin dropped from 81,300 to about 76,900, roughly a 3% decline that day, with crypto liquidations around $480 million, mostly long positions. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.34%. Over the weekend, gold held near 4456, and Bitcoin bounced back to around 79,000. This is not the rate hike landing, but futures pricing in a 66% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September.
There are two mechanisms. When rates rise, the risk-free rate increases, forcing a revaluation of non-yielding assets like gold; the dollar strengthens, making gold and crypto priced in dollars more expensive. Crypto has an additional layer: leverage is first unwound, and ETF funds will watch US Treasuries rather than oil. Geopolitical premiums remain in gold since the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, so gold won't fall exactly in tandem with crypto.
A 66% chance is not a done hike. Nonfarm payrolls are on Friday, FOMC on the 15th-16th. If expectations rise further, gold and crypto will be discounted first; if expectations retreat, both can breathe. Don't interpret simultaneous declines as a permanent future correlation of rises. $BTC $XAU Apple changes leadership, Ternus takes over as CEO. The hardest part is not succeeding Cook, but succeeding an Apple that is too good at making money.
Cook transformed Apple from a hardware cycle company into a cash machine running services, supply chain, buybacks, and ecosystem together. Ternus comes from a hardware background, so the market naturally expects foldable screens, AI devices, and new form-factor products. But the problem lies here: what Apple lacks now is not another flashy launch event, but proof that it can redefine the next generation of entry points.
I think the outside world will underestimate the pressure of this matter.
A new CEO comes in who cannot recklessly change the profit machine Cook left behind, nor let Apple continue to be labeled as "AI lagging behind." Apple's most valuable asset is user habits, and its most dangerous point is that user habits are too stable, so stable that innovation seems not urgent enough.
#苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO $DOGE's biggest narrative this year — satellite launch on September 14!
Is it worth buying?
Currently, the RSI is relatively healthy, not overheated, so you can take a chance riding the hype.
The DOGE-1 satellite will launch on September 14, executed by SpaceX Falcon 9. This is DOGE's biggest narrative catalyst this year; Musk won't miss this marketing opportunity.
But historically: sentiment peaks 3-5 days before launch, and the positive momentum is usually exhausted on the launch day or the day after. 0.08 is the recent support, 0.09 is resistance.
My approach: take a small position to speculate on the pre-launch sentiment. You can buy around 0.08, targeting 0.09-0.095. You must sell on the launch day; don't be greedy. This is a typical event-driven trade, not value investing.#Rising Hormuz Risk, Energy Inflation in Focus
US Stock Market Analysis: US-Iran conflict triggers oil price surge, stocks and bonds both hit, gold plummets
Overall Market: A black start to September, all three major US indices fell, Nasdaq plunged 1%. Geopolitical tensions took center stage, global markets entered risk-off mode.
Macro and Asset Performance:
Oil Prices: US-Iran clash, WTI crude surged 5.2% to above $90, energy stocks became the only safe haven.
Bond Market: Global sovereign bonds sold off, 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.8%, rate hike probability directly hit 68%.
Gold: Real interest rates rose, gold broke below $4350, down nearly 2%.
Stock Market: As rates rise, tech stocks took the hardest hit first. Software and semiconductor sectors led the decline, AI concepts underperformed the broader market.
Core Logic: Geopolitical conflict → oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → bond yields spike → growth stock valuations pressured. Oil price rise boosted energy stocks but crushed almost all other sectors.
Summary: Geopolitics is unpredictable and can only be managed. Oil prices surged too sharply now; if the situation cools down later, the pullback will be quick $CL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
Before key data releases, the market often 'runs ahead' in pricing, which is more worth noting than the data itself.
The key logic is: the market reaction after data release is more important than the data itself.
If prices don't rise after good news, it means the positive factors have already been priced in, and the upward momentum may be insufficient.
If prices don't fall after bad news, it actually indicates strong support below, and the market may have already "price in" the bad news.
What really needs attention is not a single data point, but the combined reaction of BTC trends, the US dollar, US Treasury yields, ETF fund flows, and the options market after data release; together, they provide the true market answer.
Currently, the market is in a "waiting for new signals" phase. At the end of August, Bitcoin consolidated narrowly near the eighty-thousand-dollar mark, with short-term implied volatility rising, indicating participants are positioning ahead of price fluctuations around macro events. Interest rate expectations are the core variable affecting the coin price now, and capital flows have also diverged—spot fund inflows are a clear source of demand, but the decline in open interest is closer to short covering rather than new buying.
So at this stage, the direction is indeed not yet determined; there is no need to rush to guess the direction. The focus should be on observing the market reaction after the data release. If the data signals strong rate cut expectations, Bitcoin may challenge upward; if inflation rebounds, the previous upward structure may be broken. 9.02 $SNDK
Many friends still view SanDisk with an old perspective.
In the past, this was a typical flash memory cyclical stock, with performance basically tied to the consumer electronics cycle, and the market fluctuated violently with the cycle.
But now the situation is different; the AI wave has reshaped its core logic.
Currently, major cloud service providers and AI companies are signing long-term flash memory procurement contracts, and these long-term agreements can hedge some of the risks brought by cyclical fluctuations.
Yesterday's stock price strength has already reflected this. The current pullback can be temporarily regarded as a consolidation on the way up. There is no sign yet that the core logic has been broken, but continuous verification is still needed.
My personal view is moderately bullish in the medium to long term; pullbacks can be key opportunities to buy the dip.
For those who haven't acted yet, you can pay attention to layout opportunities around 1515, with the first target at 1650.
$BTC $ETH robin has been super hot these past two days, with fee revenue rising to $13.05 million just two months after launch
Setting a historical high!
Smart friends should have positioned themselves in Arbitrum ($ARB) when robin took off
Why?
Because these two are linked — according to the cooperation agreement, Robinhood Chain must return 10% of net income to the Arbitrum ecosystem, with 8% going to the DAO treasury and 2% to the developer guild.
The more Robinhood earns, the more the ARB ecosystem benefits.
$ARB has indeed been impressive recently, rising 46% in two weeks.
However, there is a big unlock on September 23rd, releasing 139 million ARB tokens worth over $15 million, accounting for 1.4% of the total supply, which may create pressure.
Watch the rhythm for short-term trades; for the long term, if robin stays this hot, the logic still holds.
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 I am Brother Ci, shorting BTC at 78888, stop loss at 81500, with a clear logical chain and triple resonance from technical, macro, and capital perspectives. First, let's see what the 78888 position means. BTC has rallied from 63000 to above 81000, a monthly increase of over 28%. However, on August 28, ETFs turned to net outflows, and on September 1, there was another net outflow of $236.5 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $201.2 million. Institutional buying above 80000 has already cooled off. The 78888 level falls exactly on the upper edge of the key resistance zone between 78500 and 79000, which is the limit of the rebound, not the starting point of a breakout. The stop loss at 81500 is about 2620 points away from the entry, allowing reasonable price fluctuation space. Once the daily chart effectively holds above 81000 and breaks out with volume, the short logic fails. Technical perspective, triple pressure resonance: First, 78500 to 79000 is an important resistance area. When BTC rebounds to this zone, there are strong resistance levels at 80000 and between 81000 to 82000 above, limiting further upward space. Second, the rebound is on shrinking volume, indicating exhaustion of chasing buyers. The previous short squeeze from 62000 to 81000 has consumed $3 billion in short positions; the short fuel is basically burned out. Further upward movement requires new spot buying rather than relying on short covering. Third, 78K to 79K is a battleground of repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears; the price oscillates here without effective breakout, indicating weakening bullish strength. Macro perspective, ongoing interest rate hike expectations continue to suppress risk assets. Wash at Jack刚看到 SoSoValue 的数据，9月1日美国现货比特币 ETF 整体净流出了 $2.36亿。最让人大跌眼镜的是，以前那个只会买买买的巨无霸 iShares IBIT，昨天竟然一口气流出了 $2.01亿。
咱们来盘一盘这组耐人寻味的数据：
1. IBIT 这一波 $2.01亿 的流出，绝对是近期罕见的。虽然人家累计还躺着 $633.7亿 的净流入，但这波操作直接给市场蒙上了一层九月大跌的心理阴影。
2. 就在大家都在跑路的时候，BITB 默默地买了 $838万。钱虽然不多，但态度很明确：你们跑你们的，我捡点便宜筹码。
3. 别看流出这么多，ETF 总资产还有 $971.2亿，占比特币总市值的 6.25%。说白了，华尔街现在动一动小指头，咱们的盘面就得抖三抖。
老韭菜都知道，“Red September（血色九月）” 在币圈不是开玩笑的。历史数据告诉我们，九月往往是比特币表现最拉跨的一个月。
* 贝莱德背后那些养老金、对冲基金的大佬们，对宏观风险的嗅觉比狗还灵。这波流出，更像是为了应对接下来的非农数据或者美联储动向做的预防性撤退。
* 别忘了，虽然最近震荡，但长期持仓位还是浮盈的BTC｜现在是抄底，还是先卖？$ARB $UNI $ZEC 比特币今天重新回到 $78,000 下方附近，从前期反弹高位回落。短线压力正在明显增加。� MarketWatch +1 更值得关注的不是一次下跌，而是宏观环境正在变得不利于风险资产：中东局势升级推高油价，美国10年期国债收益率升至约4.81%，美元走强，市场甚至重新提高了对美联储加息的预期。� Reuters +1 但另一方面，BTC并没有出现趋势性崩塌。8月现货BTC ETF仍录得约 30亿–35亿美元净流入，说明机构需求并没有完全消失。� CoinStats +1 我的策略：现在不建议一次性重仓抄底，也不建议恐慌清仓。 如果已经持有BTC，可以保留核心仓位；如果准备新资金，可以采用分批布局，而不是试图精准猜最低点。 真正需要观察的是：BTC能否重新站稳 $80,000附近，以及ETF资金能否持续回流。 👉 你认为这次回调是**新的买入机会，还是上涨后的风险释放？**#DellAIServerBeat #OKXOutcomesRelay #HormuzEnergyInflation #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
The leader has something to say
Two routes for crypto treasuries, both expanding on the same day.
Strategy bought 4,603 BTC last week at an average price of 80,318, with a total holding of 845,100 BTC. BitMine holds 5,901,100 ETH, with 86% staked, generating an annual staking income of $335 million.
But the bigger variable lies in index eligibility. MSCI is advancing a rule adjustment regarding the eligibility of "non-operating companies" for index inclusion. If implemented, treasury companies like Strategy that rely on financing to buy coins may be removed from the MSCI Global Investable Market Index.
Strategy is opposing this, but the rule's direction is out of its hands.
The scale of coin purchases is for show; index eligibility and financing capability are the substance. Strategy's model depends on financing to buy coins and wait for appreciation, while BitMine stacks staking income on top of ETH price gains. One bets on asset appreciation, the other on cash flow. Whichever among $BTC $ETH $SOL can continuously increase asset value per share will have a viable model.
Continuing to hold short positions on ZEC.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.非农前数据分化，9月加息悬念拉满 美国最新两组数据，给市场出了一道难题。 8月 ISM 制造业 PMI 从55.6降至54.6，低于预期的55.2，说明制造业扩张速度正在放缓；但价格支付指数仍高达71.1，通胀压力并没有明显降温。 就业市场同样是表面稳定、内部降温。7月 JOLTS 职位空缺录得727.1万，高于下修后的6月718.2万，但招聘人数减少27.8万至505.4万，说明企业没有大规模裁员，却也越来越不愿意招人。 真正麻烦的是，油价上涨继续推高通胀预期，美债收益率和美元同步走强。目前市场对美联储9月加息25个基点的定价已经升至约66%—68%，10年期美债收益率一度逼近4.8%。 风险资产已经开始承压，美股三大指数集体收跌，纳指跌约1%；BTC也在78,000美元附近反复震荡。 接下来最关键的是北京时间9月4日20:30公布的8月非农。就业太强，会继续加固加息预期；就业明显转弱，又会引发经济降温担忧。对BTC来说，短期已经不是单纯的“数据差就涨”，而是要同时看美元、美债收益率和加息概率怎么重新定价。 我个人会重点盯住78,000美元附近的承接力度。非农落地之前，追涨杀跌都容易Feeling the profits are unstable
Looks like it dropped a bit
But the pullback was too fast
$BTC didn't drop below 76000
So it didn't break the support level
Clearly still an uptrend
Not really daring to add more short positions
Just holding this short position for now
This one was opened at 78662
Now around 77600
Floating profit is already over 1200U
Logically this position should be comfortable
But every time it dips these past two days
The buy orders below are filled very quickly
A truly weak market wouldn't give so many rebound chances
Before losing 76000
It looks more like a high-level shakeout in an uptrend
So the short position can be held
But definitely not chasing to add more
If it really stands back above 78200
I'll start protecting profits
$XAUT recently seems like an amplifier of risk-off sentiment
With geopolitical risks combined
Funds immediately flow to gold
It keeps strong
Indicating the market hasn't fully relaxed its vigilance yet
Small-cap coins like $BICO are more about liquidity
When BTC drops suddenly, it tends to amplify volatility
But on a rebound, it might suddenly pull back
Now is not the time to heavily bet on direction
I'll keep holding this $BTC short position
With profits, just hold for now
But if 76000 doesn't break
I absolutely won't turn a short-term short into a dead short!
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 Analyzing the K-line chart — over the past month, BTC has risen steadily from around 63,500 to 77,000, while ETH surged from 1,880 to 2,400.
ETH's increase is more aggressive, indicating that market funds are gradually increasing their risk exposure. However, both still have room before reaching their yearly highs; currently, it looks more like a consolidation after a rebound rather than a true trend breakout.
The logic for BTC is relatively simple: fixed supply + institutional allocation, with the core purchase driven by scarcity and market consensus. ETH is much more complex, with stablecoins, DeFi, and L2 forming a complete ecosystem. When liquidity warms up, funds usually flow to BTC first, and only when risk appetite further increases does ETH's elasticity truly release.
The macro environment remains challenging: interest rate at 3.75%, inflation at 2.5%, unemployment at 4.1%. Expectations of rate cuts can support valuations, but as long as inflation and the dollar fluctuate again, the market will remain under pressure.
My judgment is simple: BTC for direction, ETH for odds. With easing expectations strengthening, ETH is more likely to outperform; if macro tightens again, BTC is relatively more resilient.
No need to overthink it, just take what you need.
#Pre-nonfarm data divergence, September rate hike expectations heat up
#Robinhood on-chain volume surges, crypto-stock Meme sparks controversy
$BTC $ETH $SOL 5 Quick Takes on Today's Market
Quick Take 1: Oil Prices Are the Main Director
Brent crude oil broke through $96.56/barrel today, up 2% intraday, with a cumulative surge of 51% year-to-date.
What does 51% mean? If you bought oil for 1 million at the start of the year, it’s now 1.51 million.
The bond market crashed first, who’s next?
Oil prices are the "main director" of this global asset repricing round. It’s not the Fed, not Trump, it’s oil.
Quick Take 2: Global Bond Markets Are Undergoing a "Rate Reset"
The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.798%. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit 3%, the highest in 30 years since 1996. The UK 10-year government bond yield is 5.255%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Germany’s 10-year yield also surged to its highest since 2011.
This is not a problem of any single country. This is a global rate reset.
Borrowing costs are soaring, and global governments’ interest expenses are exploding. The "dry wood" accumulated from fiscal stimulus has been ignited by the Iran conflict.
The cash you hold is being squeezed from both inflation and rising interest rates.
Quick Take 3: BTC Falls Below 77,000 — Why Doesn’t It Rise Amid War?
Bitcoin dropped to a low of $76,454 today.
Some ask: Shouldn’t safe-haven assets rise during war?
Wrong. The current market logic is: "Oil price up → inflation up → Fed rate hikes" → all risk assets come under pressure.
BTC’s safe-haven attribute is temporarily overshadowed by "rate hike fears."
It’s not that Bitcoin is weak; the macro narrative is just too strong.
Quick Take 4: 66% Chance of Fed Rate Hike in September, Two Weeks to Decide
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has surged to 66%.
Before the speech by Waller at Jackson Hole on August 28, this number was just over 30%.
It doubled in less than a week.
September 11 CPI data + September 15 FOMC meeting = the most important macro window of 2026 in the next two weeks. No contest.
CPI beats expectations → rate hike → risk assets crash.
CPI misses expectations → no rate hike → risk assets rebound.
That simple. And that brutal.
Quick Take 5: Only Two Scenarios
If oil prices stay above $90, inflation expectations will heat up further.
BTC’s next script has only two options:
Scenario A: Bottom near 77,000, wait for macro reversal → get through it, and it’s spring.
Scenario B: Continue to fall with risk assets → another drop ahead.
Which way? Watch the September 11 CPI.
Before then, all moves are guesses.
The bond market has already crashed.
Oil prices keep rising.
The rate hike probability keeps climbing.
Before September 11, hold your hands, don’t act rashly.
$BTC $BZ $XAU #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 Is $FIL about to revive?
The price rebounded from about $0.6 in August and has recently risen again.😱
Let's first figure out what this thing really is.
You can think of it as a "worldwide shared cloud storage": some people provide hard drives to store files, others pay to rent space. FIL is the token used in this cloud storage—for payments, collateral, and rewards.
Before, everyone compared: whether the hard drives were big enough and the data stored was enough.
Now the official stance has changed: it depends on whether people actually pay monthly.
The warehouses are already large; what's missing are tenants.
When tenants come and money flows on-chain, this coin gains more confidence.
Just stacking empty warehouses with no rent paid makes it hard for the price to improve long-term.
So what does buying $FIL mean?
It’s a bet on whether this decentralized cloud storage can transform from an "experimental project" into a "business that collects rent."
If it succeeds, then it looks like a revival. If not, it remains a cheap but empty warehouse.
A two-day price increase doesn’t equal revival. What really matters is whether there are continuous paying users coming in afterwards.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 BTC and ETH face macro pressure
$BTC hovers between $77,000 and $78,000, while $ETH holds around $2,400. The pressure is no longer driven solely by US-Iran tensions; a tighter financial environment adds another layer of resistance
Brent crude oil prices exceed $95, 10-year Treasury yields approach 4.81%, and the market prices in about a 67% chance of a rate hike in September
This is a troubling combination for risk assets. For $BTC, $76,000 to $77,000 remains key support. Holding this range could stabilize market sentiment; once broken, it may accelerate selling pressure.When everyone is panicking, whales might be quietly accumulating
Oil prices have risen to $95, bond markets are crashing, the probability of a rate hike has surged to 65%, BTC has dropped from 81,000 to 77,000——
Seeing these headlines together, are you panicking?
If you are, congratulations, you’re a normal person.
But normal people usually don’t make money in the crypto market.
On September 1, the US launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran. Brent crude oil rose 4.5% in two days, breaking through $94 and approaching $95.
Global bond markets crashed simultaneously—Germany’s 10-year government bond yield hit the highest since 2011, the UK’s the highest since 2008, Japan’s the highest since 1996. The US 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.8%, a new high since January 2025.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from just over 30% before Waller’s speech to 66%.
Oil prices have risen 51% year-to-date.
All traditional market signals are telling you one thing: run.
Bitcoin rose 24% in August, marking its best monthly performance since November 2024. It once surged to $81,500, a 15-week high.
Then what? After Waller’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, BTC fell below $78,000. It is currently fluctuating between $77,000 and $79,000.
ETF funds also showed issues—after nine consecutive days of net inflows, on September 1 there was a net outflow of $202 million. Yesterday (September 2) continued with a $236 million outflow.
On the surface, it looks like: the good news is all out, it can’t rise anymore, time to run.
But—note this “but”—
On-chain data tells a completely opposite story.
CryptoQuant data shows that in the past 60 days, addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have net accumulated 73,300 BTC, the highest since April 21.
Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 43,300 BTC in the same period.
What does this mean?
At $77,000 per BTC, these whales have quietly bought over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past two months.
You see headlines panicking, they are silently absorbing the supply.
On September 2, a whale address starting with 0xe2ad executed the first order of a preset $60 million buying plan.
At an average price of $76,499, it bought 121.53 BTC, worth about $9.3 million.
Moreover, this address has 17 unfilled limit orders, planning to continue buying 671 BTC in the price range of $75,479 to $76,245, with a total value of about $50.88 million.
See that?
Retail investors are panic selling, whales are placing buy orders at $75,000–$76,000.
Who is absorbing whose supply?
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 81 last week to 62. Market sentiment is cooling, retail investors are panicking.
But the number of whale wallets hit a 6-month high in August, with 90 addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC.
Retail is selling, whales are buying.
This is no coincidence. This is the classic crypto market script—always the same.
So how "real" is this round of macro panic?
Honestly, it’s quite scary.
If oil prices stay above $90, inflation pressure will spread from energy to broader consumer goods prices. Among the Fed’s preferred inflation indicators, 54% of commodity prices have year-over-year increases exceeding 3%, far above the 32% historical average.
The CPI data on September 11 and the Fed meeting on September 16—two major bombs waiting to explode.
If CPI exceeds expectations, if the Fed really hikes rates, the market might drop again.
These risks are real; I’m not trying to fool you by saying "it’s nothing."
But what is the core of contrarian thinking?
It’s not ignoring risk, it’s judging whether the risk is already priced in.
Oil at $95—the market already knows.
Rate hike probability at 66%—the market already knows.
Bond market crash—the market already knows.
All these "bad news" are already priced in.
So what hasn’t been priced in?
September 11 CPI might show controlled inflation—that’s not priced in.
Oil price spike might be a geopolitical flash event, then ease as the situation calms—that’s not priced in.
Whales buying $9 billion BTC in the past 60 days—that’s even less priced in.
In March 2020, when the pandemic broke out, US stocks circuit-breakered, Bitcoin dropped 40% in one day. Everyone was selling.
Whales were buying.
In November 2022, FTX collapsed, Bitcoin dropped to $15,000. Everyone said "crypto is dead."
Whales were buying.
In August 2024, Japan’s rate hike triggered global carry trade unwinding, Bitcoin flash crashed to $49,000. Everyone panicked.
Whales were buying.
Then what?
Every time, it bounced back.
Not because whales are smarter, but because whales can endure panic better.
Contrarian doesn’t mean blind.
The current strategy is simple——
First, don’t be scared by headlines. Oil prices, bond markets, rate hikes—these are noise, not signals.
Second, watch on-chain data. Whales buying means someone thinks this price is not expensive.
Third, before the September 11 CPI data is released, buy in batches with light positions. Save your bullets for after uncertainty dissipates.
The most panic-filled moments often correspond to the best value entry points.
But the premise is—you must have bullets.
"Be greedy when others are fearful"—everyone can recite this.
But few can truly do it.
Because greed is not a strategy, it’s a counter-human nature ability.
When everyone in your group is shouting "run!"
When your Twitter feed is full of "Bitcoin will drop to 60,000"
When you see your account’s unrealized losses and start trembling—
Ask yourself:
Are you doing what 90% of people are doing?
If yes, you’re probably losing money.
$BTC $CL $BZ #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Why did Robinhood Chain suddenly become popular? On-chain DEX trading volume surpassed $2 billion, rising 61% in one month, and on August 31 alone, it hit $1.49 billion, directly ranking second among all chains. It's like Pharaoh suddenly discovering a spring in the desert—no one expected such speed.
Where did the volume come from? It's not that retail investors suddenly understood DeFi; it's that the "crypto-stock pairing" Meme has created a new twist.
Simply put, this gameplay means the liquidity pool for Meme coins no longer pairs with ETH or USDC, but with tokenized stocks. You buy a Meme coin called AI, and on the other side of the pool is NVDA token. Buying the Meme coin simultaneously means indirectly buying NVDA. Suddenly, you become a "stockholder."
The controversy lies here.
The liquidity pools of Meme players directly lock the supply of on-chain stock tokens. During the weekend when the US stock market was closed, the HIMS token once traded at a 112% premium over the NYSE closing price. The essence of this is—"the scarcity of stock tokens is not determined by real stock supply and demand, but by how FOMO the Meme players are."
What does Pharaoh think? Robinhood Chain's approach indeed activated RWA liquidity, but it feels more like an experiment of "Meme hijacking stocks." It's fun, but don't mistake Meme-driven premiums for value discovery. $ETH $BTC $ARB #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has caused $CL oil prices to surge dramatically, intensifying market fears of inflation and sharply increasing expectations of interest rate hikes; this very logic has led to a steep decline in risk assets, and gold, as a non-yielding asset, has also been affected.
So when will risk assets led by BTC warm up? A key indicator is oil prices.
Only when oil prices fall will market panic over inflation subside, shifting the logic from trading inflation and rate hikes to trading high-risk preference assets; the saying among experts that "when crude oil falls, all things thrive" reflects this principle.
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注
@OKX星球 [Breaking Analysis] Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Confirmed? Follow the Trend and Buy the Dip!
Today, I’m going to make a bold statement (don’t hate if you disagree): The cycle model (Figure 1) shows that the 20-month major cycle bottom for Bitcoin was finally confirmed in early July. How does the Hurst cycle determine the bottom? For example, to confirm the bottom of the 20-month major cycle, we look at the next lower cycle, the 40-week fld line. When the 40-week fld line crosses above and holds above the K-line, it means the 20-month major cycle bottom has formed (see the green line and red circle in Figure 1). Of course, if the price later falls below the fld line and breaks to a new low forming a lower bottom, then this 20-month major cycle bottom is invalidated.
At least for now, the formation of the 20-month major cycle bottom means the start of a long upward cycle. This also implies that this bear market is a shallow one, with large institutions entering the market, reducing Bitcoin’s volatility, and bringing the bull market earlier than expected.
This is a bold analysis, and many may not understand it. I remain open to different viewpoints. If a new low forms later and the bottom is invalidated, I will admit my mistake.
But one important point is that bull markets often arise amid divergence, continue amid doubt, and collapse amid consensus.
Before the 20-month major cycle bottom is invalidated, I tend to view the upward trend as the main direction. So the trading strategy becomes mainly buying on dips, with selling on highs as a secondary approach. If you don’t believe the cycle model’s prediction, that’s fine; responding to the market is more important than predicting it.
With the main strategy set, here is the short-term operation plan.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin may have completed waves 1, 2, and 3, and is currently in wave 4. Wave 4 often shows complex and tangled movement, and after correction, usually leads to wave 5, as shown in Figure 2.
Therefore, in the short term, you can buy at the low point of wave 4. Measuring from the lows of waves 1 and 3, the improved Fibonacci retracement support level is between 74,500 and 75,500. This can be considered strong support. If the market provides an opportunity and the price falls to this range, consider buying to capture the upward wave 5. Early September is the 20-day minor cycle bottom; watch if the market offers an opportunity.
October, the end of this year, and early next year are still cycle bottoms and remain good times to add to spot positions.
In my personal trades, I advised caution and partial profit-taking on short positions at 78,200 tonight, with limited profits. But the Link long positions I shared in the group a few days ago have performed well, as shown in Figures 3 and 4.
Defensive trading: My style is to take opportunities when they arise and patiently wait when they don’t, without over-focusing on trend predictions. If there are profits, I move stop-losses to lock in partial gains. We have many positions, many of which quickly become profitable with a high win rate, so there’s no need to be greedy.
Current personal position status (all operations announced in advance):
Spot: 63,000 worth of Bitcoin, 1,800–1,900 worth of Ethereum, 60+ Circle, 140+ Coin.
I usually buy in batches, keep cash ready, and add more at cycle bottoms like October and the end of this year or early next year.
Spot purchases may be locked for a considerable time, but you sow in the bear market and reap in the bull market.
All the above is based on cycle model theoretical values; actual results may vary. Please think independently. These are personal views and operations and do not constitute any trading advice. September is already starting with serious volatility. Renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities have pushed global risk sentiment lower, with oil climbing above $95 and investors moving toward safer assets. Bitcoin briefly fell toward the $76K area and is now hovering around $77K, while Ethereum remains below $2,400. The bigger concern isn't just the crypto sell-off. Higher oil prices → higher inflation pressure → higher bond yields → tougher conditions for risk assets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has Is the bull market really starting? The signals I've been watching have basically never failed in past cycles.
Earlier, I actually talked about $BTC's 50-week moving average, but after reviewing the history again these past couple of days, I think we need to add another indicator: 50 Week MA + Weekly Supertrend.
Looking at these two together is much more interesting than just focusing on 80,000, ETF inflows, or how much it rose on a certain day.
Let's look at the past first.
In October 2015, $BTC reclaimed the 50-week moving average around $280, and then the Weekly Supertrend also completed a long-term bullish flip.
Everyone knows what happened next.
$BTC went from a few hundred dollars all the way to nearly $20,000 in 2017. That round of the real bull market started gradually from this stage.
Galaxy's historical statistics also show that after reclaiming the 50W MA in 2015, the price stayed above this line for 135 consecutive weeks.
After BTC dropped to over $3,000 at the end of 2018, it reclaimed the 50W MA again in May 2019, when the price was about $5,800.
Just over a month later, BTC surged to nearly $14,000, more than doubling.
The 2022 bear market was even more typical. BTC bottomed at just over $15,000, the Weekly Supertrend flipped bullish again at the start of 2023, and then in March BTC officially reclaimed the 50-week moving average around $28,000.
A year later, BTC had already broken through the previous all-time high of $69,000.
There is a detail here I find very critical.
Looking at the 50W MA alone, it is not 100% accurate.
Because at the end of 2021 and in March 2022, BTC briefly reclaimed the 50-week moving average, but ultimately continued to fall.
At that time, the Weekly Supertrend did not simultaneously complete a true long-term bullish flip.
This is why I no longer look at any single line alone, but always combine these two indicators:
➡️ 50W MA to judge whether BTC has crossed the long-term bear market resistance again.
➡️ Weekly Supertrend to determine if this breakout has truly formed a long-term trend.
In past cycles when the market truly switched from bear to bull, these two signals basically resonated together. Conversely, the few false 50W MA breakouts in 2021–2022 were not confirmed by the Weekly Supertrend.
So looking back at now, it’s very interesting.
Recently, BTC surged from over 60,000 to above 80,000, reaching a high of $81,265.
At that time, the 50-week moving average was around $81,000–82,000.
It almost touched it.
But it ultimately didn’t hold, the weekly candle closed back below, and now BTC is back near $78,000; the Weekly Supertrend still hasn’t fully flipped bullish.
So my current judgment on this round is simple: the bull market has not officially started yet.
It looks more like it’s oscillating just below this last layer of long-term resistance. As I said before, I still expect a dip before a healthier rise...
But if BTC can truly hold above the 50W MA on the weekly chart, with the Weekly Supertrend flipping bullish, and then hold on a retest after the breakout—
I will take this signal very seriously.
Because past cycles have told us the same thing: once the bear market ends and these two long-term indicators both turn bullish, it’s usually no longer just a rebound of a few dozen percent.
It starts to be measured in years for the next phase.
So whether $BTC is at 77,000 or 79,000 right now, I’m not so worried.
What I really want to see is when it can truly cross both lines near 81,000 together.
If it really holds this time, then the area around 60,000 might very well be the last bear market bottom we see this cycle.
I’m also preparing to add this trendline to our observation indicators to help everyone with investment decisions.
In one sentence: invest scientifically, everyone stay tuned...The logic behind the decline of a basket of semiconductor stocks including $MRVL, $ORCL, $COHR on 09/01 is actually very clear
US-Iran conflict escalates again → crude oil rises → inflation expectations heat up → market increases bets on Fed rate hike in September → global bond sell-off, long-term yields surge → high-valuation assets like AI/semiconductors get devalued
1/ Honestly, these are not things ordinary people can predict.
1. US-Iran clashes resume, oil prices suddenly rise
2. Then global bond sell-off occurs
The market pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 65%–70%
3. Fed Governor Michael Barr spoke clearly:
If inflation does not sufficiently ease, the Fed should "raise rates decisively."
2/ Why semiconductors fell more than the broader market
Semiconductor valuations are based on profits from 2028–2030; discounted cash flow calculations make future profits discounted to today less valuable
High-valuation, high-volatility internet-related stocks are the easiest to be sold first
3/ Reviewing the year’s decline
For example, $MRVL, in 2026 this stock’s every big rise and fall is driven by multiples rather than fundamentals. Multiples mean stock price divided by earnings per share, commonly called P/E ratio, meaning how many dollars you are willing to pay today for one dollar the company earns in a year
From the June 4 high of 316.43 to the July 29 low of 163.40, it dropped 48%, while the market’s consensus for next year’s earnings per share only moved from 6.08 to 6.18. From July 29 to August 20, it rose 54%, with expectations moving only 1%. From June 4 to August 31, the stock price fell 33%, earnings expectations rose 9%, and the multiple dropped 39%
I am currently writing a fundamental article on $MRVL as of September, providing three points of upside potential based on current research for reference; the full article will be published later $ETH $BTC $LAB
Bitcoin fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762; Ethereum dropped below $2,400, closing at $2,395. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $315 million, with long positions accounting for $251 million.
1: US-Iran conflict triggers risk-off sell-off
The US military launched airstrikes targeting the Revolutionary Guard within Iran, which responded with missile counterattacks. Trump warned that the next round of strikes would be "stronger and at a higher level." Brent crude surged 4.6% to $94.65, and WTI crude rose 5.2%. The spike in oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher, US Treasury yields climbed, risk assets came under broad pressure, and the S&P 500 fell to its lowest since August 4.
2: Interest rate hike expectations weigh down
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 66.4%. Although Bitcoin surged 25% in August, it now faces multiple headwinds in September, including rate hikes, rising oil prices, and resistance in the $80,000-$86,000 range.
3: ETF funds show significant divergence
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $236 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading single-day outflows at $201 million. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $8.6 million, marking 17 consecutive days of net inflows. Institutional funds are clearly rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
Bitcoin near $77,100 still has spot and ETF demand support, but on-chain structure is weak, and holders continue to take profits. If geopolitical tensions worsen, Bitcoin could test $70,000; if the conflict eases and spot demand dominates, it may replicate the 2023 bottoming breakout pattern. $BTC $ETH $LAB
Bitcoin fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762; Ethereum lost the $2,400 level, closing at $2,395. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $315 million, with long positions accounting for $251 million.
1: US-Iran Conflict Triggers Risk-Off Selling
The US military launched airstrikes targeting the Revolutionary Guard inside Iran, which retaliated with missile attacks. Trump warned that the next round of strikes would be "stronger and at a higher level." Brent crude surged 4.6% to $94.65, and WTI crude rose 5.2%. The spike in oil prices pushed up inflation expectations, US Treasury yields climbed, risk assets came under broad pressure, and the S&P 500 dropped to its lowest since August 4.
2: Rate Hike Expectations Weigh
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 66.4%. Although Bitcoin surged 25% in August, it now faces multiple headwinds in September, including rate hikes, rising oil prices, and resistance in the $80,000–$86,000 range.
3: ETF Funds Show Significant Divergence
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $236 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading single-day outflows at $201 million. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $8.6 million, marking 17 consecutive days of inflows, indicating a clear rotation of institutional funds from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
Bitcoin near $77,100 still has spot and ETF demand support, but on-chain structure is weak, and holders continue to take profits. If geopolitical tensions worsen, Bitcoin could test $70,000; if the conflict eases and spot demand dominates, it may replicate the 2023 bottoming and breakout pattern. Crude oil surged to 90, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.796% intraday (a new high since January 2025), and the probability of a rate hike in September has been repriced to over 66% — the chain of oil price → inflation → rate hike is like a knife held at the neck of risk assets.
Bitcoin: The bearish logic hasn't changed since the surge above 81,500. Now stuck around 77k, several moving averages are exerting resistance, the bearish alignment remains, and the volume-heavy drop in the early morning saw the main players exit faster than anyone else. The script is simple:
Hold 75-75.5k and then reclaim 79-80k, which would be a strong resistance against macro pressure from three sides, giving bulls something to work with;
If it decisively breaks below 75k, leverage will trigger a chain liquidation, heading straight for the major support at 70-72k for a deep cleanse.
Ethereum: Last night it spiked to 2381, with the 2400 level effectively broken, turning support into resistance. Below, only the old liquidity between 2200-2300 remains. The rhythm remains "Bitcoin hasn't stopped falling, Ethereum takes the hit first."
In short: Macro conditions are like a pressure cooker, technicals show bearish alignment plus volume-driven sell-off. Until the 75k and 2400 levels are effectively reclaimed, any rebound should be treated as a downward continuation, so don't rush to mistake a bounce for a reversal. $BTC $ETH $BTC failed to break through $80,000. Is the next key support level to hold at $77,000?
This morning, Bitcoin's price was still near $78,000, but selling pressure intensified afterward, and it has now dropped to the $77,000 range.
Not only did it fail to retake $80,000, but the price was pushed back to around $77,000 again. Bitcoin has reached a very critical short-term juncture.
This decline is not just due to profit-taking sell-offs.
Concerns about domestic inflation in the U.S. have intensified, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 4.81%. The market believes the likelihood of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting has increased, which is bearish for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, tensions in the Middle East are rising, pushing oil prices higher.
Higher oil prices → increased inflation concerns → rising interest rates
This chain of logic is suppressing Bitcoin's upward momentum.
So, will Bitcoin continue to fall from here?
There is an indicator to watch: ETF fund flows.
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $201.9 million on August 28; on September 1, funds flowed back in with a net inflow of $216.7 million.
However, after the latest data revision, the inflow on September 1 was adjusted downward, confirming that the momentum of capital entering the market is not as strong as before.
To summarize the current situation:
Bitcoin's price is retreating, ETF buying strength is weakening, and market concerns about U.S. rate hikes are intensifying. $FIL dropped from $237 to $0.8, a cumulative decline of over 99.7%
The fundamental bearish factors are:
Tokenomics fatal flaw — annual inflation as high as 18%~21%, total supply expanding to nearly 2 billion tokens, miners forced to sell daily, early investors continuously unlocking at low cost, creating permanent selling pressure;
Severe supply-demand imbalance — storage capacity exceeds 23 EiB, but actual paid usage rate is only 0.43%, mostly junk data, not adopted by enterprises;
Ecosystem confidence collapse — STFIL project encountered issues, the Shipyard team responsible for IPFS maintenance will cease operations in September 2026 due to funding interruption; security vulnerabilities have caused node risks. Multiple structural problems overlap, making any rebound difficult to sustain.