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$UNI Wall Street really got a tool
CME will launch UNI futures on October 19, this is not just lip service but a real implementation. The protocol's daily fees are about 2.5 million dollars but no governance tokens enter.
Futures on CME allow institutions to compliantly go long or short UNI, which is a stronger move than the SEC lifting restrictions, effectively integrating UNI into the traditional framework. However, all protocol revenue goes to LPs and the treasury; governance tokens only benefit from valuation, not cash flow. The benefit is pricing power, not dividend rights.
CME providing this tool is a real implementation, with a neutral to bullish stance, holding 8.4, pushing to 9.6, reducing positions below 8.1; position size is 20%. The futures launch expands boundaries but fees do not enter tokens, so don't treat institutional tools as wallet top-ups. #OpenAI与Anthropic调查数万起AI安全事件
Tens of thousands of AI security incidents are not scandals; they are the inevitable result of security monitoring shifting from sample audits to full-scale scanning. The surge in numbers is due to improved detection capabilities, not a loss of control over risks.
Basis: OpenAI and Anthropic each released transparency reports in September, collectively disclosing over 40,000 incidents. Most involve jailbreaks, harmful content generation, and Agent misoperations, with high-risk cases accounting for less than 0.5%. However, Agent-related incidents have grown the fastest month-over-month because agents have begun autonomously invoking tools and executing code.
Details: OpenAI reported about 26,000 incidents, Anthropic about 15,000. Both companies stated that most were triggered by automated red teams and user reports, not actual accidents.
AI security is shifting focus from whether incidents occur to whether large-scale monitoring is possible. For the crypto market, the more active the Agent economy, the more security incidents there will be. Watch the proportion of high-risk cases and whether Agent misoperations propagate on-chain. Only if both remain stable will AI truly dare to delegate authority to machines. Everyone knows AI needs GPUs. But the memory sitting next to those GPUs is becoming just as interesting to me.
That’s why Micron’s upcoming earnings are worth watching.
The AI infrastructure boom has created huge demand for advanced memory, especially HBM. But at this point, I’m not just looking for another “AI demand is strong” comment from management. Expectations are already high.
Personally, I want answers to three things:
→ Is memory pricing still improving?
→ Can margins keep expanding?
→ Is AI demand strong enough to support growth beyond the next few quarters?
The third one matters most to me. Memory has always been a cyclical business, and strong demand eventually attracts more supply. The real opportunity would be if AI changes that cycle enough to create a longer period of structural demand.
So I’m treating Micron earnings as more than another chip report.
#MicronEarningsAhead $BTC #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
US Treasury yields have surged to their highest level since 2007, and gold has dropped more than 3% in a single day. The most expensive phrase in the world is: "The risk-free rate has finally taught risky assets a lesson."
When the 10Y US Treasury—the "global asset pricing anchor"—rises, the logic becomes simple: buying government bonds yields about 5% with almost no worries; gold yields no interest, so holding it means losing opportunity cost; BTC is even worse, being a highly volatile asset and heavily leveraged, so when macro conditions tighten, long positions get liquidated first.
Stop just repeating "BTC is digital gold."
In the short term, rising US Treasury yields → stronger dollar, liquidity tightening, risk appetite falling → gold and BTC often fall together. Yesterday, gold plunged, and the crypto market was dragged into deleveraging, with liquidations happening faster than anywhere else—this is the evidence.
But seasoned crypto veterans look deeper.
Why are US Treasury yields so high? It’s not because the economy is so great, but due to fiscal deficits, bond supply, recurring inflation, and the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance all squeezing together. When the market starts doubting US Treasuries themselves, only then will gold and BTC be reclaimed together as "non-sovereign hard assets."
So don’t blindly call bull or bear markets now.
There are three operational points:
1️⃣ US Treasury yields haven’t turned yet; don’t mistake a pullback for a bottom;
2️⃣ Hold stablecoins; waiting for macro signals is better than going all-in;
3️⃣ BTC’s long-term story remains intact, but in the short term, it must first survive the "5% era."$ZEC Finally seeing hope for breaking even this round 🤣
Felt something was off yesterday, $BTC rebounded to 85K, $ETH back to 2.75K, but ZEC clearly couldn't keep up.
Sure enough, it directly dropped below 1500 today, hitting a low near 1430.
Anyone still think my short position around 1000 can't be closed? 😂
It rallies hard, and the pullbacks are just as fierce; no mainstream coin is absolutely safe.
Still holding, patiently waiting for the outcome.
If it really breaks even, every brother in the comments gets a serving of pork trotter rice! 🐷🍚
#ZEC #BTC #ETH #PCE #NonFarm[The Truth Behind Micron's Pre-Market Plunge: It's Not Storage Crashing, It's U.S. Treasuries "Killing" It]
Micron is reporting earnings early tomorrow morning, but it took a hit in pre-market today: Luxshare down 4%, SanDisk down 3.25%, and Micron itself down 2%. Many are panicking—has the storage rally ended?
Don't panic! Storage isn't to blame here. Nvidia just announced a $150 billion buyback, the industry's cash flow is rock solid, so it's definitely not a fundamental issue.
The real culprit is macro: oil prices rising, U.S. Treasury yields breaking 5% across the board, even the 2-year yield is nearly hitting 5%, causing market risk appetite to collapse.
Gold is also getting hammered, not because it's weak, but because global central banks are aggressively buying, yet they can't withstand the drain from U.S. Treasuries.
Is Micron scared? It actually makes up a bigger portion of my portfolio than Nvidia, precisely because it’s been the strongest gainer. JPMorgan set a $1540 target price, TD set $1600, just waiting for the earnings report to drop—no fear at all. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Boeing plunged about 6.9% on Monday: FAA delays 737 MAX 10 certification due to Flight Management Computer software failure, about 30% of undelivered orders stuck at the gate, not a bottom-fishing gift.
Seen: BA closed around 184.39 on Monday, down about 6.91%, intraday low about 184.01; previous close about 198.07.
FAA delays MAX 10 certification due to Flight Management Computer software issue; MAX 10 accounts for about 31% of Boeing's undelivered commercial aircraft orders, no clear timeline for lifting the ban yet.
On the same day, GE about 318/−2.7%, LMT about 518/−0.3%, the most vulnerable in aerospace.
Simple understanding: This is a regulatory rhythm risk, not a "crash to the floor price immediately"; interest rate selling pressure combined with oil prices, short-term looks more like event premium retreat.
My view: Non-farm payrolls and PCE data haven't landed yet, don't reach out for the flying knife; first see if there's a new certification timeline, then talk about catching it.
I will only keep an observation position for now, not bottom-fishing this one; invalidation if volume breaks below Monday's low around 184, or if it reclaims the previous close around 198.
Do you think it will first consolidate between 184–190 waiting for FAA news, or break down directly and wait for data next week? #ThisWeekKeyNonFarmAndPCEData #USBondYieldsHitHighestSince2007, Gold down over 3% $BA $GE $LMTINJ is facing a new variable: the spot ETF hasn't launched yet, but 90% of the position is already targeted for staking!
On September 29, Injective disclosed that Canary Capital has submitted the third revision of the S-1 filing for a staking-type INJ ETF to the SEC.
The most noteworthy aspect is not the word "ETF" itself, but this design: under normal circumstances, at least 90% of INJ is expected to be used for staking.
This means that once the product is approved and funds flow in, institutional demand could bring two simultaneous paths: buying spot INJ → locking it up for staking → earning staking rewards.
For INJ, this offers more room for imagination than a simple ETF capital narrative, because the new demand could simultaneously affect both the circulating supply and the on-chain staking ratio.
But don’t equate the "third revision" directly with "imminent approval"; the final outcome still depends on SEC approval and actual fund inflows.
If it really materializes later, what INJ needs to watch is not just ETF net inflows, but also staking scale and actual circulating supply changes.
$INJ [100x Challenge: Day 64 — Live Trading Record]
1. Capital Status
Initial Principal: ¥3000
Today's Profit: +¥11
Total Profit: ¥4356
Current Assets: ¥6956 (114.9%)
Profit Withdrawal: ¥400
Final decision to withdraw the additional ¥10,000, keeping the initial principal of ¥3000
2. Current Positions and System
$BTC short at 87,000, risk-reward ratio 3:1, current return 21%
Added position at 84,700
View remains unchanged, expecting a 77,000-85,000 range with upward oscillation
First, cancel the second add-on plan.
Second, move stop-loss fully to break-even.
Third, hold! Take profits in three batches between 77,000-79,000.
Fourth, if it rebounds again above 84,500 and stabilizes in the range, immediately sell half the position.
A big move might really be coming soon; recently crude oil and gold have been very volatile, but this has had almost no significant impact on Bitcoin, which is unusual.
This is a clear early warning of major volatility.
$CL long at 89, risk-reward ratio 4:1, current return 24%, half position exited at 96.59, added position at 92.3
Conclusion: The US-Iran situation still points to an inevitable conflict, increasing the likelihood of crude oil reaching 100-120.
However, in the long term, a honeymoon period between China and the US is expected, with a short plan at 100-110 prepared.
First, move stop-loss fully to break-even, then hold. Recently, there have been many crude oil news events causing volatile swings and double-sided losses, but fortunately, the base position is sufficient $USELESS is finally about to break even
Brothers who know me well know how long I've been holding this position
Entered on the third day of the rise at a price of $0.2
And then? Held the position all the way, almost a month now
At $0.36, I almost stopped the loss
Fortunately, I chose to keep holding, and I don't regret that choice
Unrealized loss is just unrealized loss; once you stop the loss, it becomes a real loss
Then there's no chance to break even
If it drops another 10%, I'll break even
If it drops 20%, I'll double my money
It's not impossible
Unfortunately, I foolishly went long on $HYPE and $AKE yesterday
Trying to bet on a rebound, now the whole set
Causes the short position's unrealized loss to pull back and the capital doesn't increase
Trading is still better when you firmly stick to one direction to increase the chance of making money
I realize this now, and it might not be too late.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% MARSCOIN current price is 0.1611, the hourly moving average cluster is still diverging upwards, MACD golden cross has not closed, buying pressure remains strong. Below 0.1512 is a large long position liquidation zone; if the price dips to around 0.1550, as long as it does not break 0.1508, it is a false bearish trap rather than a trend reversal. Just completed a trade on the seventh floor, sweat running down my neck, no time to wipe it off, this kind of fake drop structure has been seen often in proprietary trading desks before.
Entry range is set between 0.1580 and 0.1605, stop loss at 0.1508; the stop loss logic is based on the outer edge of the dense liquidation zone. Take profit first targets the long position liquidation release above 0.1650, and after holding above that, the second target is 0.1720. If the price rallies directly without pullback, do not chase; wait for a confirmed breakout above 0.1650 before entering.
$MARSCOIN
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
@OKX星球 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
US Treasury yields drag down the global market, and with Treasury yields unable to fall, global assets find it hard to truly relax.
In the early hours today, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to around 5.27%, hitting a multi-year high.
The current situation is that oil prices are high, inflation risks persist, expectations for a rate hike in October are rising, plus the US fiscal deficit and long-term debt supply pressure. Therefore, I judge that in the short term, US Treasury yields are unlikely to drop quickly.
US Treasuries are the global pricing anchor; yields staying high for a long time primarily suppress valuations.
▶️ US Stocks: AI and tech stocks can still rely on earnings support, but valuations will continue to be under pressure, making the market more prone to high volatility and strong divergence.
▶️ Gold $XAU : No interest income; if real interest rates and the dollar continue to strengthen, it will be difficult for gold to accelerate again in the short term. First, watch if it can hold around $4100.
▶️ $BTC : Faces the greatest pressure. It now behaves more like a high-beta risk asset; as yields rise and liquidity tightens, BTC is easily the first to be reduced by funds.
So, don’t rush to bottom-fish just because BTC and gold have fallen in the short term.
Focus on four key things next:
Whether oil prices continue to rise; whether PCE cools down; whether nonfarm payrolls and wages weaken; and whether the Fed will continue to hike rates in October.
If oil prices fall, inflation cools, and employment weakens, then US Treasury yields have a chance to truly turn around.
At that time:
US Treasuries ease → Dollar eases → Gold recovers first, then BTC and US stocks will see greater upside.The screen color hasn't changed for half a day, and when I glance at the time, another forty minutes have passed. This kind of low-volume oscillation is the most mentally exhausting; greed gnaws at logic like ants, always thinking that even entering a small position to catch a rebound is okay. But looking back at past loss records, when have I not lost control during times when system signals were unclear? At such times, the so-called oversold indicators are just excuses to enter the market. Close the trading software and clean the desk; even going downstairs for a couple of laps is better than stubbornly staring at a motionless K-line on the screen. Don't let your anxiety become nourishment for the market.
$BTC $ETH #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit a new high since 2007, with market expectations for rate hikes rising again, the U.S. dollar strengthening, and non-yielding assets facing sell-offs. Spot gold plunged more than 3% in a single day.
U.S. Treasury yields are the global anchor for asset pricing. As interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold and BTC increases significantly, causing funds to shift toward U.S. Treasuries for stable returns, suppressing risk asset valuations.
The sharp drop in gold indicates the market's current priority on high interest rate logic. Although BTC has shown some resilience recently, it is still difficult for it to completely detach from the macro environment.
If U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the crypto market will continue to face liquidity pressure, and the risk of high-leverage positions will increase.
However, it is important to distinguish that part of this yield rise is due to the massive U.S. fiscal deficit, and concerns about the long-term credit of the dollar have not disappeared, which is the underlying logic for BTC still holding some buying support.
The macro environment has no one-way direction; continuously rising yields will suppress the market; once data weakens and rate expectations fall, risk assets will begin to recover. The focus going forward is on two key data points: Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE. Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.683, top positions long-short ratio is 0.780; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.327; price dropped 0.70%, position value changed by -0.87%. The side with the majority of accounts is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
$WLD top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.755, top positions long-short ratio is 0.880; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.277; price dropped 0.90%, position value changed by -1.39%.
$SUI top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.652, top positions long-short ratio is 0.880; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 1.814; price dropped 0.78%, position value changed by -1.02%.
DOGE, WLD, SUI: overall market account structure is long-biased, which also differs from the top position bias.
WLD, SUI: the account number structure and position distribution of the top groups are aligned.做交易的人，几乎都经历过爆仓。爆仓之后最容易听到一句话：我心态不好。 但视频讲得很直接：心态只是背锅的，真正让你一次次爆仓的，是风控没做好。 为什么这么说？因为心态崩之前，仓位早就失控了。你连赢几把就飘，开始重仓干；做反了不甘心，开始扛单；亏了想回本，越亏越加。这些表面看是情绪问题，实质是没有规则管住仓位。 如果有规则呢？单笔最多亏1%到2%，总仓位有上限，止损进场就挂好。那情绪再大也翻不了天，因为规则会先把你拦住。 散户爆仓，常见就两条路。 第一条，重仓不止损。本金不多，想快点翻身，一把梭。错了不认，扛着，最后扛到保证金归零。 第二条，亏损加仓。第一笔亏了，第二笔加倍，第三笔再加倍。这已经不是交易了，是赌回本。市场不会因为你急，就给你面子。 风控其实就管三件事。 第一，单笔亏损上限。每笔进场前，先算好最多亏多少钱。亏到就走，不商量。 第二，总仓位上限。不能同时开一堆方向差不多的单子。看着是分散，实际是变相加仓。行情一反向，全部一起亏。 第三，行为边界。止损提前挂，不靠盘中意志力。连赢之后也不能随便放大仓位，甚至要降。规则定死，人才不会乱来。 做市商和机构为什么能活？ 不是他们心态比你☀️$BTC Morning Brief
Bitcoin is holding around $83K after pulling back from the recent $87K area. U.S. spot BTC ETFs attracted about $2.39B from Sept. 21–25, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices and Treasury yields remain important macro factors for BTC. ETF flows are a useful market signal, but they don’t guarantee price direction.
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh #HormuzTermsInFocus Is the ETH needle at 2720 deep enough?
Yesterday's low was 2633.8, the high touched 2703.2 but didn't break through, closing at 2676.57. Today opened at 2676.57, the high reached 2720, the low was 2650.69, current price is about 2663. Volume has shrunk.
2720 above is still resistance. If 2650 below breaks again, it’s likely to revisit yesterday’s 2633 first.
In the short term, watch if 2663 can hold. If it can’t hold, treat it as a pullback after a rally, don’t chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if 2650 support holds; if it doesn’t, consider trimming a bit. $ETH NVIDIA $NVDA is smashing down an additional $150 billion in stock buybacks at this point in time, bringing the total to $235 billion. Essentially, it’s using cold hard cash to hedge its own valuation anchor.
The market’s biggest anxiety right now isn’t that NVIDIA can’t sell GPUs, but whether the massive capital expenditure on computing infrastructure can be sustained.
Large model vendors have spent hundreds of billions on chips, and Capex growth will inevitably slow down someday. As forward PE keeps dropping, the market starts discounting it like a cyclical stock. At this point, just relying on Jensen Huang shouting about a tech revolution in speeches can’t drive the stock price anymore.
The real power of massive buybacks lies in changing the supply-demand balance and the denominator for earnings per share calculations.
When free cash flow is abundant, continuously tightening the float means that even if future revenue growth slows from explosive to steady, EPS can still be artificially boosted.
For capital in the secondary market, this is equivalent to directly converting the heat of AI capital expenditure into a liquidity stepping stone in the capital markets.
This move clearly separates NVIDIA from those software companies that simply burn money to build large models.
However, the buyback plan extends to fiscal year 2028, indicating this is not a short-term one-off price support but a long-term defensive counterattack.
If downstream AI applications never produce blockbuster commercial closed loops, causing big companies to cut chip procurement budgets in a year or two, then relying solely on capital operations won’t sustain long-term growth logic.
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $HYPE couldn't hold up this time either and was directly liquidated, with $NEAR and $USELESS also stopping losses and exiting.
In two days, there was a drawdown of about 4000U; this wave really hurt a bit.
Currently, no longer holding hard, first shrinking the position, only keeping the previous three brothers for observation.
Recently, market volatility has clearly increased, BTC is repeatedly tugged around 83,000 USD, rising US Treasury yields and oil prices are also suppressing risk assets, and the differentiation of altcoins is more obvious.
NEAR has also experienced a significant pullback recently, but Bitwise's NEAR ETF has already passed the relevant listing and registration procedures, and the market is still watching the subsequent fund performance.
These two days, no rush to recover losses; staying alive is more important than anything.BTC's 82501 spike from yesterday is still hovering around that area today.
Yesterday's low was 82501, the high touched 84973.6 but didn't break through, closing at 83329.5. Today opened at 83329.4, with a high of 84346.8, a low of 82726, and the current price is about 83061. Volume has shrunk.
The resistance above is still at 84346, and only above that is yesterday's 84973. Below 82726, if broken again, it’s likely to revisit 82501 first.
In the short term, watch if 83060 can hold. If it doesn't hold, consider the dip not over yet; don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 82726 support holds; if it doesn't, consider reducing your position. $BTC $GRASS this wave is a "catch-up + narrative upgrade" double click — about 50% increase in 7 days, +90% in 14 days, nearly quadrupling from the February low of $0.17. Current price is about $0.63-0.68, with a market cap of approximately $440 million, ranking #120. Today it oscillated at a high level and pulled back, but this is not the end of the trend; rather, the core narrative of AI data has just been repriced by mainstream capital. There is still 5x room from the 2024 high of $3.89. In the AI+DePIN sector, it is one of the few targets that "has not yet completed a main upward cycle."
**Four major reasons for takeoff:**
① Narrative upgraded from DePIN to "AI data layer": Grass converts millions of idle household bandwidth into network data collection for AI labs, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching $60-70 million, potentially hitting $100 million, and the revenue directly benefits token holders — this is an AI narrative with real cash flow, not just hype.
② Coinbase listing explosion: On 8/27, Coinbase opened full trading, allowing US retail and institutional investors to buy directly with fiat, fully opening the capital inflow.
③ Catch-up + capital rotation: The altcoin season index broke above 60, capital rotated from BTC to high Beta small caps, and GRASS became a key undervalued pick heavily promoted by institutions and influencers (such as Van de Poppe) due to its previous lag.
④ Derivatives short squeeze fueling: Contract open interest and volume surged, shorts were continuously liquidated and bought back, and low liquidity amplified the gains. $ETH Ethereum is the only standout here. Among 19 assets, it was the only one that didn't turn red yesterday.
It independently held steady at 2,690. While Bitcoin dropped over 1% and altcoins fell 2-10% in the evening, the 7-day moving average at 2,683 is right underfoot, and the 14-day moving average at 2,641 is the first line of defense.
Two major events in derivatives: short positions surged 13,000% over two weeks (on-chain derivatives data). With shorts squeezed this tight, any rebound will be fueled heavily. The total staked amount surpassed 43.5 million tokens, hitting a record high, with tokens firmly locked on-chain.
Lido initiated the migration of 8.4 million validators, and Vitalik declared Hegotá as the "last regular fork," signaling that the foundational work for the staking narrative is still intensifying.
Stop loss at 2,545, first target range 2,780-2,850. With shorts this crowded, I lean toward an initial bounce.SKHYNIX continued to decline on Tuesday, with 1303 already lower than Monday's low, and the spike at 1419 this week is basically being ignored.
On Monday, it dropped from 1365 to 1315. Today, OKX's current price is about 1303, volume is still there, and the bears haven't stopped.
Resistance is still between 1315 and 1366 above; only above that is 1419 to 1438. If 1303 breaks below again, it’s easy to first see 1262; if that area can't hold either, the short term will look for lower space.
In the short term, watch if the current price can hold at 1303. If it can't hold, consider it as accelerating the drop from 1419 to digest, and don't chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if the low at 1303 today can hold; if not, reduce some; for those wanting to catch a dip, wait for a pullback and consider only if it can't break 1315, don't catch a falling knife in mid-air. $SKHYNIX Ethereum will rise to $10,000 each.
Just now, Ethereum confirmed quickly and integrated into Chainlink CCIP 2.0.
The upgrade done by ETHLabs reduces cross-chain confirmation from 13 minutes to as fast as 12 to 24 seconds.
Large transfers still retain full security verification, balancing speed and security.
Cross-chain infrastructure acceleration will make institutional funds flow across chains more smoothly. $ETH SPCX dropped to 146.9 on Tuesday, and the low point of 146 on Friday couldn't hold, making the unlocked high point of 158.1 even further away.
On Monday, OKX roughly dropped from 149 to around 145. Today's current price is 146.9, with a volume of 9.68 million, still searching for a position downward.
The resistance above is still between 149 and 154.8, and only above that is 158.1. If 146.0 below breaks again, it's easy to first see 143; if this area also can't hold, the short term will look for space even lower.
In the short term, first watch if the current price at 146.9 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as accelerating a drop from 158 to digest, don't chase the current price. Those already holding should watch if the previous low at 146.0 can hold; if it can't, reduce a bit; those wanting to catch a dip should wait for a pullback and consider only if it can't break 149, don't catch a falling knife in mid-air. $SPCX Overnight short swing trade perfectly executed 🎉
BTC 84350‑83066, down about 1284 points
ETH 2720‑2663.01, down about 57 points $HBAR trending surge 23.8%, RSI 80.2 overbought, I am bearish
$HBAR surged +23.8% in 24h, currently at 0.118, even hitting CoinGecko trending — at this hottest moment, I am directly bearish.
First, the daily RSI hit 80.2, a standard overbought signal; the close also jumped above the upper Bollinger Band, bandwidth stretched to 57.2%, MACD golden cross on day 9 with the red bars still expanding, overheated to the point of burning.
Second, positions are really crowded, OI for 09-27 contracts surged +48.97%, long-short account ratio at 1.4795, volume ratio at 12.241, bulls are all on board, no one to take over above.
Third, the overall market is still breaking down, high-level divergence and pullback phase, risk appetite is risk_off, only 24 out of 65 major coins are rising, BTC stuck at 83296.01 with almost no movement, overnight US stocks crypto concept stocks average -2.05%.
Resistance above: 0.1266 (1h SAR flipped above)
Watershed level: 0.1171 (if broken, this rally is directly invalidated)
Support below: 0.1076 (4h SAR holding)
Trading plan: open short at current price 0.118, stop loss above 0.1266, first target 0.1076, if broken look down to 0.09415. Watching the market, follow me, next signal coming.
$HBAR $BTCBitcoin is currently facing its fifth consecutive losing session.
That's worth paying attention to.
Not because five red days automatically mean a major reversal.
But because momentum has clearly cooled after the $87K+ move.
The important question now:
Does BTC stabilize here and rebuild?
Or does selling pressure continue to push price lower?
The answer will come from price action, not predictions.$ZEC finally broke even today
I was stuck for a whole month, barely making any moves during that time
Woke up today to see it at over 1380, already below 1400. I'm afraid 1690 was the peak for this cycle. Those chasing highs hoping to break even might have to wait another two years
Just opened my phone and saw the news: a giant whale who held a long position for two months closed it today, selling over 20,000 coins
This is probably a major factor behind today's panic selling
I also feel this is a key signal of a market topGot wrecked by $ZEC once. Position was too big. If it were smaller, I’d probably be back in profit by now.
Low position size is key in crypto. Keep every position small, and even the bags you have to hold can eventually recover. Let’s get back to overall profit ASAP. 📈Strategy repurchased preferred shares last week, spending more money than buying $BTC.
From September 21 to 27, it bought 1,665 BTC for $142.7 million and repurchased STRC preferred shares for $151.7 million, $9 million more.
And this has been happening for two consecutive weeks. From September 14 to 20, it spent $75.7 million on buying coins and $174 million on repurchasing STRC. Looking at the two weeks together, the spending on buying coins nearly doubled, while the repurchase spending actually decreased.
The repurchase has its own calculation. When the company announced the policy in July, it explained: when STRC is below $100 per share, buying back at a discount can reduce future preferred stock dividend payments; the deeper the discount, the stronger the planned repurchase usually is.
The $246.2 million raised from issuing common stock last week was also split two ways: about 58% to buy BTC, about 42% to repurchase STRC, with the repurchase also supplementing some cash.
From the actions of these two weeks, Strategy is increasing spending on buying coins while spending money to reduce future dividend burdens. Behind "buying another 1,665 coins" is also the accounting of this financing cost.
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #This week迎 Nonfarm and PCE key data
@币圈超短王马大帅
• Market: BTC range-bound oscillation, altcoin hotspots rotate quickly
• Contracts: intense long-short battles, slight increase in liquidations, beware of spikes
• Macro on-chain: large BTC transfers are internal institutional reallocations, not sell-offs; Bitget gradually resumes withdrawals
• Industry: Chainlink launches CCIP2.0, CMC changes CEO #This week迎 Nonfarm and PCE key data
@币圈超短王马大帅
• Market: BTC range-bound oscillation, altcoin hotspots rotate quickly
• Contracts: intense long-short battles, slight increase in liquidations, beware of spikes
• Macro on-chain: large BTC transfers are internal institutional reallocations, not sell-offs; Bitget gradually resumes withdrawals
• Industry: Chainlink launches CCIP2.0, CMC changes CEO $ZEC When it comes to trading notes, first of all, a few days ago I opened a short position on zec at 1547, with a take profit range around 1450 to 1470. But at that time, it never broke the support near 1520 and instead rebounded to around 1690. Then it dropped from around 1690 to 1530. I closed my short position at 1547 for profit. Then I planned to open a short position on zec when it rebounded to around 1580 to 1600 (because the daily chart showed a downtrend structure), but I impulsively opened a short at 1562, then closed at 1540. So actually, each trade only made a profit of one or two points at most. Then last night I opened a long position again at 1537, hoping to catch a small rebound to 1552 and exit, but it rebounded only to 1547 before dropping sharply (this was my mistake, because last night the ultra-short rebound to around 1547 was rejected). Then I held a double long position at 1537 until now with a floating loss of 20%. My biggest problem is that I can't hold positions. I take profits on winning trades at the slightest gain, but stubbornly hold losing trades. I always want to do ultra-short-term trades, but I can't control the entry points and take profit points well, and even though I know I'm trading against the trend, I just can't stop myself. For now, I'll just endure slowly and see if there's a chance to rebound again to the 1540 range. I think the current decline mainly follows the overall market downtrend, with bulls taking profits. The fundamentals shouldn't be bad. Of course, I could be wrong; zec dropping to 300 or rising to 2000 is possible, all depending on the market makers' mood. But I am optimistic about this coin in the long term. For now, I'll just endure slowly My Tuesday morning read:
$BTC 's barely moved, sitting near $83,325 — just testing the floor of last week's range while the 10-year yield hits its highest since 2007. $ETH 's doing nothing either, basically flat at $2,672. But $ZEC dropping 9-12% to $1,387 is the real story — after doubling in a month, this looks like overdue profit-taking, not a broken thesis. I'm not touching any of these until yields cool off.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead I am your uncle, $ETH current price 2672.63.
To be honest, recently going back and forth, whether bullish or bearish, it's easy to get hurt. Many people keep struggling over whether to go all-in long or all-in short, but right now it's not a one-sided market at all.
A lot of people were brainwashed by the previous rally, blindly rushing in to go long, and holding on stubbornly when prices fall; there are also many shorts who are convinced of a big drop, heavily shorting early, only to get stopped out by small rebounds. Just like the current market, a slight rebound looks like strength, but the resistance at 2687.69 is firmly pressing down, volume is lagging, and the rebound feels more like a correction during a downtrend.
Don't be fooled by some news hyping a bull market narrative; funds in the market are actually very cautious. Even the crypto options market has never really taken off, indirectly showing that people don't dare to boldly bet on a big move.
Ethereum is just like this—neither up nor down, very frustrating. Chasing longs often means buying near short-term highs, while shorting risks getting caught by small rebounds. Don't always think you can bet big on a major move; don't stubbornly hold onto one-sided beliefs. Going all-in long or short in a choppy market will lead to big losses.
Blindly holding positions will not bring a reversal but a significant drawdown in your account. No one's capital can withstand repeated turmoil.
Market observation only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoOptionsIndustryCooling
#ETHLongShortBeliefBattleOne wallet, one week, moved 22,960 $ZEC into its own pocket, which is about 31.7 million USD at the current price.
I checked the details: the main wallet received 41,690 coins, sent out 18,730 coins, leaving this net amount. And it hasn't stopped; in the past three hours, another 4,200 coins were added.
This action doesn't look like short-term flipping.
More like slowly accumulating.
Honestly, ZEC is an old coin that usually doesn't get much chatter, so when someone suddenly starts collecting it coin by coin like this, my first reaction was to check if something was about to happen. But looking only at the chain, you can only say they are indeed buying; what they plan to do after buying, nobody knows.
Don't rush to follow.
If you really want to follow, wait until the next time they transfer to an exchange—that's the real signal.
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 $ZEC The trend of gold and BTC, which one is wrong?
The divergence between the trends of gold and BTC appeared on September 21. On that day, BTC surged more than 6%, while gold started its own correction.
Yesterday, gold corrected significantly again, while the BTC/gold ratio hit a new high.
So the question arises, who will catch up with whose trend in the future?
My judgment is: BTC will catch up with gold's trend, first further bottoming out, then, as macro conditions improve (currently the market's expectations for interest rate hikes over the next year have become irrationally extreme, with the market expecting four more hikes), both will rise together.
This round of gold's correction stems from the rise in real yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. Theoretically, in such an environment, BTC should be under pressure just like gold.
However, the strong net inflows into BTC ETFs have brought an independent alpha rally, largely offsetting the pressure from high real interest rates.
But, as ETF net inflows have significantly declined; and since the 22nd, there has been a clear divergence from price, no longer able to drive price increases.[Old Leek Observation]
$ADA
ADA has pulled back in the past two days, but on the fundamentals side, there have been continuous new developments.
On September 24, Fireblocks announced full support for Cardano Native Tokens.
Banks, exchanges, payment companies, and fintech firms served by Fireblocks will now be able to custody, send, and receive Cardano native assets through it.
Today, September 29, Cardano also participated in CV Summit 2026 as a Gold Partner. This trend is not just about speculating on ADA, but about Cardano's assets starting to integrate into institutional infrastructure. The price, however, has not surged.
ADA previously surged to around $0.259, then retreated to around $0.24.
Current: $0.24
Entry: $0.232–$0.240
Take Profit: $0.255 / $0.270 / $0.290 / $0.320
Stop Loss: $0.221$ZEC's rally logic has ended; this round only has a tail-following trend with the big coin! As $BTC pulls back, the drop far exceeds that of mainstream coins. Reviewing the previous logic: the core driver of ZEC's surge was the massive short squeeze causing liquidations. The top short exited with a loss of $35 million, but the spot position had already made multiple times profit, resulting in overall substantial gains.
With the largest opponent out, the momentum for continuous rise has vanished, and this rally has prematurely exhausted the bull market gains. Previously able to independently rally strongly, now with no shorts left to liquidate, it will most likely just follow the big coin's flow, making another independent big move unlikely.
The current lowest price touched 1355, with the current price around 1383. The Bollinger lower band at 1339.6 serves as short-term support, while MA20 at 1481 forms strong resistance. Moving averages are collectively trending downwards, and bearish pressure has not been fully absorbed.
The weakness of such narrative coins is evident now: the rise depends on short squeezes, and once the market oscillates, selling pressure will be released in concentration. The big coin's 82500 level is the dividing line between bulls and bears. Even if the big coin holds support, ZEC will at best see an oversold rebound, making it difficult to replicate the previous surge.
There are many options in the bull market; there's no need to gamble on tail-end trends or rush to bottom-fish. Wait for the market to truly stabilize before seeking better opportunities. $XDP #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 My honest read: PCE hits Wednesday, jobs Friday, both feeding into October's hike decision — odds already near 65%. I don't love that for $BTC . A soft payrolls print plus tame PCE eases pressure fast. A hot reading or another strong jobs beat pushes hike odds higher, and that's real downside risk. Not trading ahead of either. Two rate-critical releases this close together isn't a week to guess.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #PCEAndPayrollsWeek Term Structure Radar
$BTC annualized pricing at three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +4.94%/+5.46%/+5.16% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$350.6.
$ETH annualized basis decreases with expiration term: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +5.24%/+4.69%/+4.35% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$11.91. The near-term annualized basis is higher than the far-term, with higher annualized pricing concentrated near term.
$SOL annualized pricing at three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +1.59%/+2.26%/+1.25% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$0.16.
BTC, SOL: The mid-term expiration breaks the monotonic arrangement; the difference between near and far terms is insufficient to describe the entire curve.
BTC, ETH, SOL: All three expiration points are in contango.ZEC's decline today, I believe, is not due to a single negative factor but rather a combination of several factors:
🔹 1️⃣ Excessive prior gains
ZEC experienced a rapid rise earlier, and profit-taking at high levels began, causing price pullback pressure.
🔹 2️⃣ Long liquidations amplify the drop
When the price broke key support, high-leverage long positions were forced to liquidate, and the selling pressure from liquidations further pushed the price down.
🔹 3️⃣ Key support lost
After ZEC broke important previous support, the short-term technical structure clearly weakened, and some traders might choose to cut losses and exit.
📊 Now 1350 is a critical observation zone
🟢 If a stop to the decline appears near 1350 and the price regains important support, a technical rebound may occur.
🔴 If the price continues to break below 1350 with increased volume, further drops to find lower support zones should be guarded against.
Within one hour on September 28, Binance, Bybit, and OKX combined liquidated about $6.5 million in long positions, while short liquidations were only about $10,000. The forced liquidations further amplified the decline. The main reason remains that ZEC had surged nearly 83% in the past month, even once reaching the historical high of 1697.Based on the afternoon of September 29 today, with ETH's current price around $2,686 for short-term projection. Different exchanges quote slightly different prices; CoinGecko currently shows about $2,648, while OKX shows about $2,686; therefore, the price levels below use OKX/mainstream spot range as reference.
Key Levels
First Resistance: $2,715–2,725
Today's high is about $2,718.
If it breaks through and holds, the short-term upward space is truly opened.
Second Resistance: $2,775–2,825
This is the previously identified potential consolidation/resistance zone in technical analysis.
First Support: $2,665–2,640
Currently a battleground between bulls and bears; if broken, the short-term structure weakens significantly.
Second Support: $2,600–2,560
Around $2,600 is also a structural support recently noted in technical analysis; Reuters previously pointed out $2,560–2,565 as a more important defense area.
Scenario One: Upward Breakout
Trigger Conditions:
ETH breaks above $2,720 with volume, and after retesting $2,700–2,720, does not quickly fall back.
Possible Path:
$2,720 → $2,775 → $2,825 → near $3,000
Among these, $2,775–2,825 is the first target zone; if volume expands simultaneously, consider higher-level targets. Reuters' previous technical pattern analysis gave a breakout target of about $3,050, but this is a pattern estimate, not a confirmed target.
Long Position Risk Control:
Aggressive: Stop loss/reduce position below $2,690
Conservative: Exit after breaking below $2,665
If already profitable, stop loss can be gradually moved up instead of strictly holding the original stop loss.
Scenario Two: Failed Rally, Downward Breakdown
If ETH tests $2,700–2,720 multiple times without breaking through, then falls below $2,665:
$2,665 → $2,640 → $2,600 → $2,560
In this case, the short-term bullish structure weakens significantly.
Short Position Risk Control:
Not recommended to chase shorts near $2,640, as this is a support zone.
If shorting after breaking below $2,665, use $2,700–2,720 as the invalidation zone above.
Reduce position near $2,600, as this is the next important support level.
This afternoon I will focus on these numbers:
ETH price short-term significance: Important resistance above $2,825; first target after breaking $2,775; $2,720⭐ bull/bear dividing line/near today's high; $2,700 important psychological level; $2,665⭐ short-term strength dividing line; $2,640 first support; $2,600⭐ second support; $2,560 structural defense level
Currently, ETH's short-term technical indicators are not one-sided: the technical summary on the evening of September 28 was bullish, but stochastic indicators are already at a relatively high level; meanwhile, today's price remains below the intraday high near $2,720.
Therefore, the most critical point this afternoon is not guessing rise or fall, but watching which level, $2,720 or $2,665, is effectively broken first.
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $ETH $HBAR just ripped 30% while nearly every other L1 bled red. The trigger: IBM listed Hedera's IDTrust identity tool in its Cloud Catalog, giving enterprise clients a direct path to AI-agent verification. Same day, Hedera's council got named alongside NVIDIA's new AI safety platform — visibility, not a confirmed deployment yet. Add a Nasdaq-listed ETF (ticker HBR) and real institutional access exists now. RSI at 81 though — this is stretched, not a green light to chase.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek 🌅 BTC HOLDER MORNING UPDATE
🐋 Bitcoin whales holding 100–1,000 $BTC have accumulated about 113,950 BTC since July 15, according to Santiment-tracked data.
🏦 Strategy also bought 1,665 BTC for ~$142.7M, bringing its holdings to 847,666 BTC.
📌 Holder signal: Large-wallet and corporate accumulation remains active, although $BTC is trading around the $83K area, so short-term price pressure is still present.
**$BTC holders are still stacking despite the pullback. 🟠🐋**Lessons Learned from New DEX Coins (Seventeen)
TALIS's x hasn't been updated for two days. Yesterday's sharp drop already had signs of a crash. I was reflecting yesterday and found it very similar to CME, both borrowing existing financial products and well-known companies, with very polished official websites. I asked AI about the possibility that the two websites were created by the same team; one said 75%, the other 35%. Plus, the price pump wasn't very high, so I continued to observe, but the lack of update on x is abnormal. Therefore, I just liquidated my position to cut losses.
SAPLING continues to be observed; the official website shows 4 new coins issued, compared to 80,000 coins burned this morning. This week, with PCE and non-farm payroll data hitting back-to-back, don't just focus on whether the data is good or bad to guess the market moves; this is a battle targeting positions and psychology.
Many people think data weeks are just about betting on big or small—shorting if it beats expectations, going long if it falls short. That's too naive. Institutional big money doesn't move before data releases; liquidity dries up, and the main players love to exploit expectation gaps at these times by suddenly pumping or dumping, blowing up leverage on both sides, then revealing the real direction. You can see the whole market has been falling these past two days, even gold dropped over three points, which is a typical sign of funds retreating early to hedge risk.
Additionally, this week Federal Reserve officials are speaking intensively; Barr and Jefferson's speeches combined with the data form a one-two punch. The data is just the prelude; policy expectations are the main event. If inflation remains stubborn and rate hike expectations are heavy, risk assets will stay under pressure. If inflation cools and rate hike expectations ease, gold and Bitcoin can finally catch a breather.
Currently, Bitcoin is holding firm above 80,000, Ethereum's decline is smaller due to ETF and upgrade expectations, but overall liquidity is contracting. Betting on data now is luck if you win, and principal loss if you lose. Even if your direction is right, a single long wick can wipe you out.
My stance is clear. Before the data lands, absolutely no heavy bets on direction. Hold spot positions steady as ballast, and unload short-term leverage when needed. Endure this intense data period, wait for market sentiment to fully vent, then pick up cheap chips with blood on them. $BTC $ETH $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 @OKX星球 [Old Leek Observation]
$0G's Infinite AI officially opened public sale today.
Simply put, it converts staked 0G into AI computing power quota.
According to the official design, 1 staked iAI can earn 1.271 compute credits daily, which can be used for AI services within the 0G ecosystem.
This is quite new.
Previously, staking mainly earned token rewards; now it directly exchanges for AI computing power.
But 0G has already surged once today, so chasing it now is unnecessary.
The product can be real, but the price might have been overhyped first.
Wait for the market to digest the initial wave of sentiment before deciding if 0G is worth buying.