Orbit Post Sitemap
The proportion of cryptocurrencies held by institutions mostly ranges between 1% and 2%. Despite a 50% market decline, all 15 surveyed institutions did not reduce their holdings. From the end of March to April 2026,
Bitwise conducted a survey of investment professionals from 15 organizations including endowment funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and publicly listed companies.
All respondents holding cryptocurrencies owned Bitcoin.
These institutions' cryptocurrency holdings accounted for 0.5% to 13% of their investable assets, with most institutions holding between 1% and 2%.
During the approximately 50% decline in the cryptocurrency market from October 2025 to April 2026, no institution reduced their holdings; instead, several increased their positions.
Almost all respondents have used or plan to use spot cryptocurrency ETFs.
Bitwise stated that concerns regarding governance, operations, and reputation remain the main barriers to large-scale allocation. #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ After holding on for so long, I still got liquidated. No one can understand the huge ups and downs of the past three days. From making 600 every day to suddenly being liquidated, my savings wiped out and all lost, it only took less than 2 hours. I originally thought I was a genius trader, but the moment I got liquidated, I realized it was all just luck playing tricks. I knew nothing about it. I don't even have the strength to reflect anymore. Now I just want to escape. 8,000 yuan principal is not a small amount, two months' living expenses, sigh.
I never understood my father, why he missed the wave of reform and opening up. Now standing at the forefront of new eras like Bitcoin, artificial intelligence, and the digital economy, I finally understand that, like my father, I am just an ordinary person.
I can see the wave, but not necessarily ride the wind. Some things are ultimately beyond grasp.If you were also watching ZEC and MUBARAK yesterday, then today's derivative perspective review might help you avoid a pitfall. Have you noticed that this sudden brake actually had signs early on? When I opened my account this morning, my heartbeat went on a roller coaster ride. Yesterday in the group, people were shouting ZEC would hit 1700, but today it just stalled. MUBARAK's situation was even more dramatic; the short position went from 0.076852 down to 0.052548, with a paper profit of +94.87%. When the altcoin was pumped, it was reckless; when it was smashed, it was even more reckless. First, let's look at the data snapshot and put emotions aside: - BTC is stuck around 85000, weakening after an attempt to rise, and as the market cools, altcoins lose momentum first. - MUBARAK's short squeeze fuel is exhausted: during the recent pump, capital inflow accounted for 92%, with an inflow growth rate of 19.51 times, showing aggressive accumulation by major players. - After the short squeeze ended, the price was pulled up and washed out repeatedly, dropping from 0.076 to 0.052, a retracement of over 30%. - BEAT is at an unrealized loss of -279%, BICO at -142%, positions entered at high levels have not yet broken even. Momentum signals and risk signals should be viewed separately. On the momentum side, the short squeeze indeed gave MUBARAK a windfall, but that was a short-term misalignment within the derivatives structure, not a trend. On the risk side, the deep underwater losses of BEAT and BICO indicate that altcoins were chased at the peak, with almost no escape window when the tide receded. From another perspective, what is really being traded this round is the fragile balance between position crowding and funding rates. When the short squeeze$ZEC Why the 1425 support has held up 3 times repeatedly
1. Concentrated chip area
The 1425 area is a cost-intensive zone from the early rally start, where a large number of long-term base positions entered; when the price falls to this level, there are few trapped positions and bottom-fishing funds are willing to step in to support, so every dip is met with buying pressure.
2. Dual support of psychology + structure
This is a previous low at the wave level; multiple retests without breaking down form a market consensus: a dip here is a chance to bet on a rebound. The main force also uses this position to repeatedly shake out the market; multiple tests of support do not make it stronger but gradually consume buying power.
Key point: Support "weakens with each test." After holding three times, the probability of breaking on the fourth attempt significantly increases. The strength of support depends on the trading volume during each retest.
- Low volume retest: high support effectiveness
- High volume sell-off dip: easy to break through directly
Current 1-hour chart
Price pulled back to 1502, just stuck at MA20=1503, a short-term resistance threshold; MACD still shows a slight red bar, RSI back near 50.
- Holding above 1503: short-term recovery, aiming again to challenge 1520~1540 resistance
- Falling back again, 1483 is the first short-term defense; below that is the major support at 1425
Critical reminder
A support level tested repeatedly, once effectively broken, will turn from support into strong resistance.
That is: holding 1425 is the rebound starting point; once broken with volume, any subsequent rebound to 1425 will become a selling pressure zone. Title: $ZEC — Lesson Learned: Don’t Fight Strength $ZEC bulls got the last laugh. 😅 I got the short thesis wrong this time, and the lesson is simple: don’t keep fighting a coin when the price action proves you wrong. I’ve avoided heavily shorting $BTC for years, and this move is another reminder of why risk management matters more than stubborn conviction. As for $ETH, the short-side setup may look tempting at times, but every trade still needs confirmation and a clear invalidation. Respect For the ONDO token, $ONDO currently feels more like a strong narrative and positive ecosystem expectations rather than a definite cash flow benefit. What truly determines long-term value is not the name BlackRock itself, but whether Ondo can channel the growth in assets under management, issuance revenue, and on-chain usage through clear mechanisms to ONDO holders. But so far, it all seems too early.Tonight, the US stock market opened lower, US Treasury yields continue to stay high, and the latest economic data is again on the strong side, reigniting expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates this year. According to the previous script, with these factors stacking up, the crypto market should have taken a hit first, right?
But just now, the market shot up with a big bullish candle!
Right now, my feeling is that the market no longer strictly follows the simple logic of "rate hikes = decline, rate cuts = rise." The previous rate hikes, war, and legislative setbacks came one after another, yet every time the market was hit, someone stepped in to buy.
Could it be that what we should really be looking at now is not how many negative factors remain, but who has been buying all along despite these negatives?
It’s starting to feel more and more like a bull market 👀Title: $UNI — Whale Accumulation During the Dip: Signal or Trap? $UNI dropped sharply from around $9.92 to $8.78, with the 15-minute structure looking clearly bearish and EMAs stacked overhead. While retail sentiment turned fearful, on-chain data caught my attention: one address reportedly bought around $10.13M worth of $UNI, $LTC and $BNB during the decline. That doesn’t automatically mean the bottom is in. Whale activity can be genuine accumulation—or part of a larger strategy. I’m holding 今天机器人没做多，三笔全是空单。 13:11开的那笔空单，13:14止盈，净赚0.40 USDT。 15:56又开一笔空单，15:58平掉，扣完手续费后净亏0.02，基本白忙。 22:20第三次开空，0.095134附近进场，10.52张，22:49:43止盈，净赚7.94 USDT。 前面两单像在交工时费，最后一单才把今天的工资发下来。 全天3单，2胜1负，毛利+10.30，手续费-1.99，最后净赚8.31 USDT。 📊 今日账单 净盈亏：+8.31 USDT 已实现盈亏：+10.30 USDT 手续费：-1.99 USDT 交易：3笔（2胜1负） 胜率：66.67% 状态：无持仓 📊 本周账单 净盈亏：+117.95 USDT 已实现盈亏：+141.38 USDT 手续费：-23.43 USDT 交易：15笔（9胜6负） 胜率：60% 累计：+117.95 USDT 今天和周二那种一天赚126块不一样。 没有特别夸张的大单，就是靠最后一笔7.94把结果拉回正数。 15:58那笔尤其典型：毛利是正的，手续费一扣，几乎原地踏步。 单子开得越多，这种“账面没输，实际没赚”的小交易BTC 83850, my long position just took another hit 🙈
$BTC 83850 looks a bit better than when it broke below 84000. Not a big win, but at least a breather.
The long position at 78700 is still open. Everyone remembers that period: the 84000 level was first swept short, then long, nearly a billion dollars in positions evaporated on the spot, liquidation warnings sounded, account numbers fluctuated, and fingers hovered over the close position button. Now it’s back to 83529, a bit of a loss recovered, but still far from "stable."
What does the recovery mean? It only means the market didn’t completely crush the bulls, not that the trend has restarted. In areas with thin liquidity, the price can be pushed down or pulled up; the same level repeatedly harvesting traders is naturally the most volatile zone.
The logic hasn’t changed: the ETF channel remains, the post-halving supply rhythm is unchanged, and the rate cut expectations are only delayed, not gone. But short-term capital outflows and macro swings are real. So after the recovery, what should be done is not to bet again on the regained space, but to move stop losses up, reduce leverage, and set liquidation points beyond normal volatility.
$BTC as always, recovery tests traders the most. When it falls, you want to cut losses; when it rises, you want to add; when it’s sideways, you doubt yourself. But surviving your position isn’t about guessing right every time; it’s about not maxing out leverage when opening, and not letting volatility decide for you during drawdowns.🔥"Market Watch Diary: $BTC Yawns, $ETH Rushes PPT, $SOL Bungee Jumps"
First thing after waking up is to check crypto on the phone, more accurate than touching glasses. $BTC hangs at 84,200, down 1.8% in 24h, after last week's high dive from 87,000, now squatting in the 83,000–85,000 range drawing a horizontal line. The so-called "institutional accumulation zone" analysts talk about becomes "institutions accumulating, I'm building mindset" in my account. Want to push to 90,000? First ask if those ETF big shots are willing to carry the load.
$ETH reports 2695, down 2.2%, fluctuating between 2650–2790 during the session. It's like a big company's P6: Layer2, re-staking, EIP upgrades in three weekly reports, on-chain data looks good, but the coin price plays dead. Support at 2650 must hold; if broken, it will "optimize" down to 2600; only breaking above 2780 counts as passing the positive confirmation.
$SOL slid to 115.8, down 2.7%, yesterday still acting tough at 117, today directly seeking support in the 110–114 range. Riding it is like riding a drop tower: screams aren't over, the next surge is already queued. Resistance at 119–121; if it can't break through, it continues as "high performance, low price."
Today's summary: BTC watches the Fed's mood, ETH watches Cancun developments, SOL watches if the on-chain local dogs are still crazy. Don't call a bull when all three lines are green, don't delete the app when all three lines are red — jokes can be made, but don't recklessly add positions.$ONE has been experiencing wild fluctuations these days, with very large swings up and down. A few days ago, when it was at a high point, I wrote an article saying it was a good time to short. After I finished the article, its price dropped all the way down and is now around $0.002. Just now, I analyzed its data again and I think shorting it now is not advisable; shorting at this point is still quite risky. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. We can see that its contract open interest and long-short ratio have been rising simultaneously during this period. This means that during this downtrend, a lot of capital has been coming in to go long. Generally, during a downtrend, shorts also take profits, which causes open interest to decrease. But currently, open interest is rising, indicating many longs are entering. Let's look at data over a longer period. We can see that its contract long-short ratio has climbed back to previous levels, and open interest is approaching its peak. Personally, I believe this position is relatively close to a bottom. —————————————————— At this position, it is best not to short. As for whether to go long, I personally think it depends on the market situation. If the market suddenly drops sharply to a very low level, I think it would be worth considering going long on $ONE, because it will likely rebound along with the market. —Title: Macro Pressure Rising, but the Bull-Market Thesis Remains Intact Oil has climbed toward $94, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has pushed toward 5%—a combination that continues to pressure risk assets. Tech stocks remain under pressure after their previous rally, and AI/storage names have also seen sharp pullbacks, with $SNDK opening lower. Despite the short-term volatility, I’m not abandoning the broader bull-market thesis. The recent rate cut can be viewed as a preventive move rathWhat exactly is the $CORE project team thinking?
They want to maintain the monetization channel. The project team does not immediately let the project die because maintaining a "zombie" state still holds value for them:
Preserving the monetization channel: As long as the token is still trading, the project team can earn fees through associated market making or nodes, and keep the possibility of handling the remaining tokens in the future.
Avoiding legal risks: Directly shutting down is equivalent to admitting "fraud," which would immediately trigger accountability. Maintaining the illusion of "technical maintenance" or "ecosystem development" is a safer delay tactic.
Pie-in-the-sky self-rescue: The official plan sets 2026 as the "revenue era," intending to use ecosystem fees to buy back CORE. But community users bluntly point out: "If trading volume and lending demand don't pick up, CORE can't withstand selling pressure by buybacks alone." Currently, ecosystem fees are negligible, and the buyback seems more like a "pie in the sky."$LINK 12.442 (24h +0.89%), 90 days +70%, but the leverage side is speaking ironically.*
The most noteworthy structure: retail long-short ratio and large holder long-short ratio have been inverse for 6 consecutive days —
Retail for six days
1.81/1.69/1.74/1.68/2.01/1.78,
Large holders 0.908/0.836/0.857/0.839/0.905/0.894.
Retail never below 1.68 any day, large holders never above 0.91 any day.
The fee rate tells the same story: current 0.0100% (percentile 1.00 maxed out), longs paying fees up to the limit; early this morning it briefly turned negative to -0.0082% (corresponding to the -6.56% daily candle on 09-23), then squeezed back to the max in the afternoon. OI 24h -9.41% (34.5M→31.2M) = price rising, positions withdrawing; perpetual discount -0.0804%.
Two levels: I reduce if it breaks below 12.05, only consider breaking sideways if it stands above 13.686. I do nothing in between.
Who do you think is right, retail or large holders?
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？
#加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 (Er Bing) $ETH My view
Er Bing is indeed weak today, the channel didn't hold, and it slipped back into the old box around 2650-2570 to fluctuate. Don't rush to buy the dip yet, see if it can stabilize here.
Right now, focus on 2610. If the hourly close can't get back above 2650, forget about a reversal; look down first to 2610. To bounce, it must first break 2710; if it can't, it basically won't bounce.
If 2610 holds, you can keep your base position. Once it breaks, reduce longs as needed; don't fight your position size. Losing 2610 likely means 2560 is also at risk, and then it's not just an hourly issue—it might directly turn into a larger downtrend, so don't take this lightly.
Operate according to this: if 2650 breaks up with volume, chase longs on the right side, first target 2678-2700; if 2630 breaks down with volume, chase shorts on the right side, target 2600-2565. Don't act without volume; spikes love to trap quick hands, always use stop loss.
On the 4-hour chart, breaking 2630 means directly targeting 2600-2565. 2670 is a hurdle; if three consecutive candles can't close above it, the 4-hour target is 2530; if it can close back above 2670, no problem for now, but don't stubbornly hold if it can't.
The small consolidation on the daily chart also broke, returning to the big box, structure is weak. Don't rush to bottom fish; wait for signals before acting, signals are more valuable than guts.
Delayed, didn't send out earlier, sending now 【$ONE Don't fool yourself, this rebound is the last cut】
1. First, let's talk about $ONE's fundamentals — this project is already dead, not just dying soon.
At the beginning of the month, Harmony officially proposed to completely shut down the mainnet launched in 2019, migrating the $ONE token to Ethereum. The team themselves have switched to working on AI video remixing. To put it bluntly, a public chain that has been running for seven years, with the official team pulling the plug — what is this? This is the project team sentencing themselves to death.
The earlier disaster exploded back in August. Attackers exploited a cross-shard vulnerability to illegally mint over 3 trillion $ONE tokens, forcing the project team to roll back and cancel more than 109,000 transactions. CoinEx delisted ONEUSDT margin and futures on September 9, KuCoin Earn removed all ONE products on September 10, and Cobo delisted the ONE chain as early as August 14. One after another are fleeing; this is no coincidence, they smell the danger.
2. Market perspective: that "pump" was a typical distribution rhythm.
A few days ago, $ONE suddenly surged from around 0.0005 to 0.006, a single-day increase of 56%, with a 24-hour amplitude over 70%, and a trading volume of 700 million USDT — this turnover rate is not a pump, it's a meat grinder. Looking at the fundamentals, it’s clear: the project team is running away, so who is this pump for? It's for you.
Gate Square's analysis also put it bluntly: $ONE previously surged from 0.0005 to 0.006 in a speculative frenzy, now it has completely reverted to its original state, RSI is severely distorted, and buying a coin with such fundamental problems is like catching a flying knife; the whales have no bottom line in unloading.
3. Operation advice, don't hesitate.
If you have long positions, it's still time to cut losses and break even. Don't think "wait for another rebound," there is no logic for a rebound. What awaits is only the next big bearish candle.
If you have short positions, hold on for another one to two days. The psychological target remains around 0.00059; delisting and zeroing out is the most probable outcome.
If you have no position, don't touch it. The liquidity of such a coin will get worse and worse, easy to enter but hard to exit.
4. Briefly about the overall market.
$BTC surged to 87,000 but failed to hold, falling back to around 86,000 with a 36% volume shrink, bears now account for 51% of taker volume. When $BTC surges and falls back, where will the funds flow? They will rotate to sectors with stories and fundamentals, not to a coin whose mainnet is about to shut down and whose token is migrating chains.
$ONE's current position is not "bottom fishing," but "catching the falling knife."
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #40亿ONE异常铸造，Harmony考虑回滚 #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象 No vision, can't hold on, the profit this time is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. Last night before bed, I saw $MUBARAK's rebound was weak, every surge lacked a breath, and volume didn't keep up. I immediately warned of high-level pressure; short positions can still be watched, don't rush to reverse.
From 0.056208 to 0.047210, +160.4% in hand, the earlier part was really dragging, but the outcome is really sweet. The wait wasn't in vain, this piece of meat is comfortable to eat, time for a good meal.
Position moves aren't complicated: first close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don't let the gains become uncomfortable. Don't be greedy for the last bit, pocket the big part first.
Being out of position isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in, chasing shorts easily gets slapped by a rebound. There will be more opportunities later, wait for the next shot, watch for new structures, I will notify at the first moment.
$SNDK $XRP US Treasury yields have surged again! The 10-year yield touched about 5.13% intraday and closed near 5.11%. CME shows about a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on October 28, and the interest rate path has been repriced.
This is generally bearish for risk assets, but the main impact is on discount rates, not an immediate reversal in the spot market. BTC and ETH have still pulled back with volume today: BTC's daily high was 85,940, daily low around 82,875, current price about 83,400, down about 2.4%; ETH's daily high was 2,728, current price about 2,644, down about 3%. There are reports of over $500 million liquidated across the network, with longs flushed out. The key deleveraging zone is around 83,000–83,500, and prices are tracking closely.
Simply put, the market is really making way for the interest rate path. My view is straightforward: short-term defensive bias, either wait for digestion around 83,000 or only reduce positions on rebounds, don't treat it as a confirmed trend reversal. For those with longs, reduce some at 84,500–85,000 first; if the daily low near 82,875 is lost, this interest rate shock is not over yet. Next observation points: about $16 billion in BTC options expire on Friday, and the next set of US inflation data. Until rates fall back, expect high-level volatility.
$ETH $DOGE $BTC
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $ETH Early Morning Trend Analysis
The early morning belongs to the end of the Asian session + US market closed, market liquidity thins, order book depth is poor, prone to spikes (false breakouts/false breakdowns), but the overall direction basically follows $BTC.
Characteristics: dominated by small funds and bot contract orders, volatility will be amplified, trend continuation is weak, higher probability of consolidation.
Direction: Long.
First short-term support: 2600–2620, consider trying 5% position here.
This range is the intraday bullish defense zone, prone to spike tests; if it only briefly breaks through and quickly recovers, it is a false breakout.
Second key support: 2540–2560 (strong support), 10% position
Important defense area at the 4-hour level, once effectively broken (closing firmly below), the short-term consolidation structure is destroyed and will further decline.
Third defense support: around 2450, this area is the stop-loss point
Mid-term bull-bear dividing line, breaking below here indicates weakness. #BTC high-level oscillation, is the rotation signal already appearing?
When narratives fade, who still stands? — The underlying trump card of the crypto market
The market is always changing scripts. In a bear market, fear can crush faith, and a single fake news can trigger a chain stampede. But when sentiment recovers and funds flow back, those "house of cards" propped up by leverage are quickly forgotten.
Bitcoin holds onto the "physical cost forged by computing power." It doesn't promise TPS, doesn't pander to developers, nor chase hot narratives — this "clumsy" stubbornness instead makes it the only asset where computing power and price anchor each other. Miners keep mining, the chain exists; the chain exists, the cost line exists.
Ethereum holds onto the "default entry point of developers' mindset." New protocols incubate here, new standards propose here, new hackers start here. Solidity is no longer just a language but an industry-shared "cognitive operating system." The more L2 expands, the harder it is to replace the main chain's position as the source of trust.
Solana holds onto the "speed of capturing retail attention." It doesn't care about criticisms of "decentralization degree," only whether matching can be completed in milliseconds. New launches happen here, meme chasing happens here, and stories of 100x overnight happen here too. Traffic settles into fees, and fees feed the operation of the entire chain.
Betting on a single track wins the trend; holding core chips wins the confidence to "still be at the table in the next round." No need to guess the rotation order, just ask yourself: when all narratives are falsified, what do you still have in your hand?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC continues to hold the short positions tightly, at least aiming for 1200. I will take partial profits at 1200 and then continue to look below 1000! I believe $ZEC will keep rising, but a healthy bull market is not a straight upward trend. After several weeks of continuous strong pulls by the whales without any pullbacks, it has clearly reached a stage of upward fatigue recently. Moreover, the market's mindset of shorting $ZEC just because it keeps rising is becoming increasingly rare, and the whales' motivation to push it up is weakening. For a genuine upward bull run to follow, there must be a significant correction. This will definitely happen within two weeks. Let's wait and see!$DELL shorting Dell is what I consider the best in my certainty trades, because even when it hit new highs daily during that period, it was still within my expected range, and I did not change my view due to superficial data and media hype NVIDIA's earnings report is explosive, but its valuation is "discounted": Is the AI leader really expensive?
NVIDIA's biggest current dilemma is not "whether it makes money," but "how long can high growth continue."
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, NVIDIA's revenue reached $96.221 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%; net profit attributable to the parent company was $59.688 billion, up 126% year-over-year. The data center remains absolutely core, with strong demand for Blackwell and continued supply tightness. Management also expects Blackwell demand to exceed supply in multiple quarters of fiscal year 2026. However, after the earnings release, the stock price did not continue to surge and has recently been fluctuating around $220. The market's concern is not about current performance, but whether AI capital expenditure, gross margin, and competitive landscape can support the current profit level.
NVIDIA is no longer a "graphics card company" in the traditional sense. The data center business now accounts for over 90%, while gaming, professional visualization, automotive, and other segments are still growing but are no longer the main drivers. The company's true moat is the combination of GPU hardware, NVLink interconnect, CUDA ecosystem, and full-stack AI infrastructure.
Risks mainly come from three aspects: first, pressure on gross margin due to rising storage, packaging, and system costs, which may cause gross margin to fall from high levels; second, cloud providers developing their own chips and competitors like AMD diverting some demand; third, if AI capital expenditure slows down, valuation will be repriced. Share your thoughts in the comments.
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #TokenizedStocks24/7 The SEC’s Innovation Exemption has opened a temporary path for certain tokenized U.S. stocks to trade on permissioned blockchain venues. The framework could eventually support near-continuous trading, automated liquidity pools and faster settlement across time zones.
The opportunity is large because tokenization connects crypto infrastructure with traditional capital markets. However, the exemption remains conditional and limited, and companies still need to address custody, corporate actions, investor protection and market surveillance. My view is that 24/7 tokenized stock trading is technically possible, but its success depends on regulated settlement and deep liquidity. Around-the-clock access may also increase volatility if risk controls are weak.Title: $BTC — $87K Rebound or Liquidity-Driven Squeeze? $BTC ’s move toward $87K looks strong on the surface, but the structure deserves caution. The rally was accompanied by heavy short liquidations, suggesting part of the upside came from forced covering rather than sustained spot demand. BTC then pulled back toward the $84K area, showing how quickly leverage can unwind. Meanwhile, altcoins also rallied sharply without a clear corresponding increase in BTC dominance. That points to broader roEvening Report: $BTC BTC spiked to 83,000 to liquidate leverage, $SOL SOL steadied after a rollercoaster, beware of big volatility on the eve of $17.9 billion options expiry
Good evening, brothers. With today's market, those who chased longs this morning probably still haven't recovered.
BTC surged to 87,245 at midnight then suddenly reversed, a big bearish candle smashed down to 83,439, a drop of over 2,700 points completed within a few hours. SOL was even more dramatic, plunging from 119.69 to 112.78, then pulling back near 114.67. Looking back now, that sharp morning drop was a classic "leverage washout after a big rally."
📊 Market Snapshot
BTC: Current price around 83,988, up slightly 0.04% in 24 hours. 24h high 86,413, low 83,439. On the 15-minute chart, MA5/MA10/MA20 all converged near 84,000, price running below moving averages, SUPERTREND resistance at 84,432 overhead. Short-term has broken key support at 85,000; if it doesn't recover today, likely to seek support around 82,500-83,000.
SOL: Current price about 114.67, up 0.77% in 24 hours. Dropped sharply from 119.69 to 112.78, then rebounded near 114.6. 15-minute moving averages show bearish alignment, SUPERTREND at 115.91 is the first resistance for the rebound. SOL is highly elastic, falling deep but rebounding fast, overall still in recovery.
ETH: Around 2,650, following the market pullback, showing weakness.
News: Several points to note today. First, Glassnode data shows BTC market net profits of $5.1 billion in the past 7 days; profit-taking is the core reason for this sell-off. Second, $17.9 billion worth of BTC, ETH, and SOL quarterly options are about to expire, usually accompanied by intense volatility around massive settlements. Third, a whale swapped 1,308 BTC for 40,670 ETH within 6 days, indicating capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
💥 Liquidation Data
About $680 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with $510 million long liquidations and $170 million short liquidations. Bulls were hit hard in the sharp morning drop, especially high-leverage long positions, mostly wiped out in one move. This is why we repeatedly emphasize: don’t get carried away after a big rally, always reduce leverage.
📌 Key Levels
· BTC: Support 83,000-83,400, strong support 82,000; resistance 84,500-85,000. Only a reclaim above 84,500 counts as recovery.
· SOL: Support 112.7-113, resistance 115.9. Only a break above 115.9 signals strength again.
· ETH: Support 2,600, resistance 2,720.
💡 Trading Tips
1. Don’t rush to bottom-fish: BTC just had a big bearish candle, heavy overhead trapped longs, plus $17.9 billion options expiry coming, market volatility will remain high. Wait for confirmation of stability near 83,000 before considering, don’t catch a falling knife.
2. Protect profits on shorts: If you shorted SOL at high levels this morning and have good profits, set a trailing stop to avoid giving back gains.
3. Control leverage: In this volatile market, high leverage is a meat grinder. A 2% BTC move equals 60% profit or loss on 30x leverage; wrong direction means total loss. Use low leverage and small positions, surviving the volatility is most important.
📌 Summary
$5.1 billion profit-taking in 7 days triggered concentrated selling, combined with $17.9 billion options expiry, BTC sharply corrected after hitting new highs. The market is currently in a leverage washout phase, direction unclear, better to watch more and trade less. Protect your capital and wait for stabilization signals before acting.
Brothers, did you profit from shorts in today’s sharp drop or get trapped in longs? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Long and short positions both hit hard, $1.24 billion in short positions "hanging overhead"
ETH fell below 2650, but whales chose to add to their long positions at this time.
As of September 24, ETH was around $2,649, down 3.3% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of $2,628. In the past 24 hours, $513 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, including $95.55 million in Ethereum long liquidations and $17.93 million in short liquidations, with leveraged longs once again becoming the "hardest hit area."
Whales are sharply divided. On one hand, a whale moved in 42,000 ETH (about $112 million), accumulating at an average price of $2,161 and taking profits of about $21.12 million before exiting. On the other hand, the address 58bro.eth has been cycling long positions in the past 24 hours, continuously borrowing USDT through Aave to add to positions, accumulating a long position of 7,000 ETH at an average price of about $2,677, currently at an unrealized loss.
ETF funds are still providing support. Today, the US Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 49,304 ETH, with a 7-day net inflow reaching 211,638 ETH; yesterday, the spot ETF had a net inflow of $104.5 million, maintaining a net inflow trend for four consecutive days.
Key liquidation price points are worth watching closely. If ETH breaks above $2,766, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.24 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,529, the long liquidation intensity will be about $669 million, and the short squeeze trigger has not yet been removed.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
$ETH BTC falling to 80K is not impossible, just a bit less likely.
Today's liquidation scale shows that the bulls are very crowded. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation in the crypto market was $617 million, of which longs accounted for $546 million. BTC single-hour liquidation was $116 million, with longs making up 97.66%. On Hyperliquid, 7 giant whale addresses were liquidated in a chain reaction. This indicates that there were too many people going long before, and once the price drops, it triggers a chain reaction.
Macro pressure is real.
The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.12%, the highest since 2007. Oil prices remain above $103, and inflation pressure has not eased. As long as yields continue to rise, BTC as a non-interest-bearing asset will be suppressed.
🐉 Xiaolong's judgment
I believe the price is most likely to oscillate between 82K-85K in the short term; today's low of 82,800 has already tested the lower support.
If 84K is effectively broken down, the next support is at 81K-82K. 80K may only be tested if new macro negative factors emerge, such as a sudden rise in October rate hike expectations or another surge in oil prices.
Today, $546 million of longs have been liquidated, releasing some leverage risk.
The fear and greed index is 71, market sentiment is still "greedy," indicating it has not reached the level of "panic selling." If sentiment shifts from greed to fear, the test of 80K becomes truly possible, which would be the time to enter and bottom-fish!
Let the bulls and bears battle for a while longer, and we patiently wait another day or two to see.Just got off work, first wishing my brothers a happy Mid-Autumn Festival! 🌕
Tomorrow is the holiday, whether going long or short, don't heavily position today, don't let one trade affect your holiday mood.
The market has generally been moving up over the past week, be cautious with shorting. BTC just reclaimed above 84500, I continue to look at 86000; ETH is around 2485 now, still targeting 2600.
$ETH hit a low of 2633, now around 2687; $BTC and SNDK are also pulling back in sync.
At times like this, it's easiest to get itchy hands. I've wanted to short at market price several times but held back.
Currently, ETH shorts are only placed at 2715; won't chase if it doesn't reach that level.
I haven't forgotten the losses from recent short squeezes; the sharper the drop, the more you shouldn't blindly chase shorts.
Short on rallies, the key is "rally."
If there's no high point, just wait and act when the position is right. If you really short, try not to exceed 10x leverage.
It's okay to miss a trade, but losing back what you just earned is truly painful.
Light positions for the Mid-Autumn Festival, no chasing, no holding through, getting a good night's sleep is more important than anything.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ "Three-Dimensional Trading System | Latest BTC Market Observation and Analysis" ---- Can the expected bottom at 80K still come?
I have been monitoring Bitcoin's price trend because this correction is just a healthy pullback and an opportunity to enter the bull market launch.
After the U.S. stock market opened, ETF institutions started buying BTC again. Today, the price dropped to a low near 82,800, reaching the strong support level around 83K below, leaving little room to the expected target price of 80K.
The price around 84,000 is currently stuck, with weak bullish volume and large whales watching...
First, 84K-84.5K is the cost concentration zone for long-term holders.
Glassnode data shows that a large supply cost for long-term holders is concentrated in the 84K-84.5K USD range. This is not just a random number but a real on-chain chip concentration zone. As long as the price can stay above this range, there is natural support below.
Second, ETF institutions are still flowing in.
Although the price fell from 87K to 82.8K, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has still seen net inflows for five consecutive days, with $347 million inflow on September 23 alone, totaling about $2.65 billion over five days. This indicates institutions are not panicking and are still buying, continuing to buy now.
Furthermore, bullish leveraged funds have already been cleared in a round.
Open interest for BTC contracts on Hyperliquid has dropped by 20.77%, and funding rates have cooled down accordingly. This means the previously leveraged long positions chasing highs have been liquidated.Killa has started building his own $BTC 10x long plan.
The first position is bought at the current price, the second position at 75584.17, the third position at 68417.89, and if it falls below 61956.82, all positions are stopped out.
This is also the main personal observation of key levels. If it breaks below 82K, the first range down is the 82K-75K consolidation zone; if it breaks again, the second range down is the 75K-68K consolidation zone. So far, it is still the early stage of the bull market.
Breaking below 62K is defined as a bull trap in the past two months. This possibility is very low.
Waiting for the long-term options to launch in September 2027, preparing to continue deploying LEAPS Calls.$OKB’s X Layer TVL has surged by 30%, while the token price has been pulling back. This divergence could present an interesting opportunity, especially after today’s dip. According to DefiLlama data, X Layer’s TVL has increased from around $53M to approximately $70M over the past two weeks — a rise of about 32%. The growing TVL suggests improving ecosystem activity and fundamentals, which could provide support for $OKB. The OKX Hackathon ends today, with winning projects expected to be announcedThe market is now pricing a 69.7% chance of another Fed hike in October. Sounds bearish for crypto, right? 👀 Not necessarily. The Fed already raised rates 25 bps in September, taking the target range to 3.75–4.00%. Now look at the bigger picture: 69.7% — October hike odds
25 bps — September increase
3.75–4.00% — current target range
~4.9% — 2-year Treasury yield Here’s the paradox: A 69.7% probability doesn't automatically mean a 69.7% shock. If the hike is already priced in, the decision itsel🔷 Why you should watch $ZRO
📋 Achievements and events:
• 09/23 (previous day): +21.4%, ~$1.43
• ~$87 billion assets through 750+ OFT
• $AAVE on 09/22 watches USDe via OFT
• USAT and USDe already on OFT standard
• Zero-chain for institutions — since February
🧠 Transport of tokenized finance: regulated money chooses OFT as the pipeline. Cap — monthly unlocks
🔮 Follow: integrations Aave/USDe, Zero
⚠️ Risks: 3.1% monthly unlocks, CCIP
❓ Will ZRO become the TCP/IP of finance?👇 Bitcoin sharply retreated from $87,300 under the macro shock of US Treasury yields soaring to a 19-year high, with the $82,000-83,000 defense line being tested. The 10-year US Treasury yield rising sharply to 5.11% significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, triggering about $366 million in concentrated long liquidations. However, whales have accumulated nearly $200 million over 20 days, and BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day inflow of $166 million, indicating that institutions and large holders are still buying against the trend. The short-term direction depends on the defense of the $82,800-83,000 level and the outcome of Friday's PCE data, with quarterly options expiry potentially amplifying volatility. Before macro uncertainties are resolved, preserving ammunition and waiting for signals is more important than chasing rallies or selling off. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美股探索代币化与全天候交易 Just saw that #XLayer's asset made it onto the #OKX Boost leaderboard for the first time!
And based on my speculation, the next step will very likely replicate a path similar to Alpha's, bringing high-quality assets on XLayer to OKX exchange contracts, and even spot trading.
Previously, I always thought XLayer lacked a pump, a short-term explosive breakout asset.
Now it seems this move is steady and deliberate, compared to a short-lived explosive breakout that comes and goes quickly. XChain seems to want to be like the surname Xu, "gradually" progressing, with long-term support, far-reaching plans and incentives, starting from a cold launch, and ultimately letting the market decide.
As mentioned before, this shows XLayer's determination to develop RWA MEME is real, which is also very positive news for $OKB .$ETH
A whale sent 42K $ETH (approximately $111.88 million) to Galaxy Digital for sale one hour ago.
Don't panic
Key points: OTC unloading, limited direct market impact, but sentiment is bearish.
· Short term: No public order book activity, so immediate impact is small; however, "whale profit-taking" will amplify bearish sentiment and may trigger follow-up selling.
· Medium term: The key is whether Galaxy transfers ETH to exchanges like Binance, OKX; only transfers indicate actual selling pressure.
· Long term: The whale still holds about 10K ETH, so there is potential selling pressure ahead, signaling caution.
Conclusion: Short-term volatility may increase, but not necessarily a trend crash. Focus on whether Galaxy transfers coins to exchanges.The 10-year US Treasury yield hits a new high since 2007, Bitcoin falls below $84,000! With a 5% risk-free return, can Bitcoin still compete? Recently, the linkage between the US Treasury market and the cryptocurrency market has attracted intense attention from global investors. Driven by strong economic data and rising energy prices, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged 15 basis points on September 23, closing at 5.11%, and intraday reaching 5.13%, the highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices came under pressure and sharply retreated, falling below the $84,000 mark during the Asian trading session, hitting a low of about $83,200. Core drivers of the surge in US Treasury yields This round of sharp rise in US Treasury yields is not merely a technical adjustment but the result of multiple factors resonating on the same day. First, economic data broadly exceeded expectations. The preliminary S&P Global US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 58.4 in September, higher than August's 56.0, marking the highest level since July 2021. Business activity expanded at the fastest pace in over five years, employment growth reached the fastest in about four years, and price pressures also increased. After the data release, US Treasury yields noticeably jumped around 9:45 AM Eastern Time. Second, international energy prices continued to rise. Brent crude oil prices intraday climbed back above $100 per barrel, with Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher, becoming a significant risk factor for renewed US inflation. Reuters noted that oil prices and US Treasury yields have been highly correlated recently, with rising energy prices reinforcing the marketBTC fell below 83,000, so why are altcoins dropping even harder?
What’s really worth noting in the market today isn’t just BTC falling below $83,000.
Although BTC’s current pullback is obvious, many altcoins have dropped even more. Market data shows BTC’s market dominance remains relatively high at about 58.8%, while coins like XRP and DOGE have clearly retraced more than BTC today.
This indicates a fairly typical risk contraction in the current market:
Funds are not evenly withdrawing from all coins; instead, after the market weakens, they exit the more volatile altcoins faster.
I am currently still bearish on BTC in the short term.
Tonight, the key focus is whether BTC can reclaim the $84,000–$84,500 range. If the rebound never holds above this area, it means short-term pressure remains; if it stabilizes above again, then we can reassess whether today’s drop below 83,000 was just a quick shakeout.
For altcoins, whether BTC can stabilize is even more important.
If BTC continues to test lower lows, the more volatile altcoins usually face greater pressure; conversely, if BTC stabilizes first, the strong coins that were heavily suppressed today may present new trading opportunities.
$BTC *Version 1 - Deep Thinker / Big Picture:* $BTC - Will history repeat? Recent violent pumps, new memes popping up, alts taking turns skyrocketing... it's put everyone back into bull market euphoria. But if this pullback pattern plays out like last time, anyone rushing to long here will get destroyed. Yes, there is another scenario: Sideways consolidation + major good news, big bids absorb the bearish divergence and push again. But with current conditions? Very hard. This rally started right at thAs expected, the richer you are, the better you get at making money
The capital Matthew effect is showing! Big players dominate both large and small trades, profiting from the big trend and picking small gains from minor moves
Reality starkly confirms: traders with superior capital volume see their profit snowballs only grow larger.
This BTC trade is a textbook example of trend trading. A big player used 30x leverage to short, entering heavily with 100 BTC at an average price of 86576 and closing at 84558, firmly capturing a 2000-point drop. The position was held for nearly 21 hours, ignoring intraday noise, steadfast in the major direction, netting nearly 200,000 U in profit, with a return rate of 69.21%.
ETH employed a different strategy, a short-term quick arbitrage. Also using 30x leverage, holding 2000 ETH, the position lasted just over two hours, capturing a small rebound from 2665 to 2671, quickly pocketing over 9000 U, a 5.09% return, exiting immediately without lingering.
Even big players can't win every battle. A SNDK 10x full position long trade entered at 1819, decisively stopped loss at 1816, losing over 3700 U in just over two hours, a 2.04% drawdown. When wrong, losses are cut quickly without stubbornly fighting the market.
The strength of big players lies not in winning every trade, but in taking full profits when winning and cutting losses promptly when losing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Tom Lee is back telling stories about $ETH.
He said Robinhood chose Ethereum for its security and liquidity, not because it's cheap. He also said ETH is becoming a store of value asset.
That sounds reasonable, but let me pour some cold water first.
The label of store of value has been worn by $BTC for so many years; it's not that easy for $ETH to take over. Security and liquidity are indeed its foundation, but these two support "use," not "hoarding."
To put it plainly, people are willing to hold ETH because it's truly indispensable on-chain, which is a different matter from "I want to store it like gold."
Tom Lee himself is the chairman of Bitmine; his position determines his perspective, so of course he hopes the ETH narrative gets stronger.
I don't deny the direction, but the timing is questionable.
What really needs to be watched next is whether ETH staking and on-chain locked value are increasing. Just talking won't convince the price.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $ETH $BTC $ZEC alone consumed 20.2 billion, $XMR only got 4.3 billion
In five months, the privacy coin sector's market cap surged from 11.97 billion to 36.51 billion. Backtracking, ZEC accounted for over 80% of that.
The data looks like this: ZEC rose from 319 to 1507, XMR only from 330 to 555. Same track, nearly five times difference.
Follow or not: January SEC settlement, August Grayscale spot ETF listed on NYSE, September DCG exchanged ZEC for 100 million shares. All the positive news hit ZEC, XMR just tagging along.
In the short term, this wave is capital clustering on a single point, not a sector-wide rally. Buying the wrong asset is like watching the right direction in vain.
That's exactly what I did last time; the direction was right, my position is on the one enjoying the gains, still holding. The fate of a welfare recipient, the heart of Wall Street's dog.
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $ZEC Just these few days, my 10x short position of 0.0010131 $ONE suffered a maximum unrealized loss of over 6000%. Watching it pump or dump every day, my heart was in my throat. Now the price has rolled up to 0.0021, and the unrealized loss has shrunk to -1100%, almost breaking even.
But brothers, I’m actually clearer-headed now than a few days ago. After so many days of continuous dumping, the short momentum has finally released more than half. If this wave can recover, it’s definitely luck, like the big whales finished dumping longs and conveniently gave shorts a lifeline.
I absolutely won’t be greedy for that last bit of profit to break even! As long as it dumps a bit more, even if the loss remains 10% or 20%, I will immediately close all positions at market price! Take the remaining USDT back in my pocket, have a good meal, and sleep peacefully. I absolutely cannot let this miracle of escaping death turn into the next real grave.
These days, watching the continuous big red candles, have you doubted life holding your positions? If you cut now, will you see the light as soon as I do?$ONE Short position barely survives the aftermath?
🔥🔥The tide of meme coins recedes, shorts catch a breath, leverage not yet triggered, staying alive is a victory
$ONE This short was entered at 0.0010131 with 10x leverage. Once the mainnet shutdown news broke, the pump by the dog whales went crazy, peaking at 0.0057, with unrealized losses once exceeding -2000%. Those days weren’t holding positions, but fighting for survival; no liquidation happened because the market temporarily didn’t press the button.
Today it finally crashed. Fifteen minutes of continuous big red candles, MACD green bars bottoming out, panic selling fleeing, a nearly 45% drop in 24 hours. Price fell from 0.0057 back to 0.0031, unrealized losses still large, but at least pulled back from the ICU doorstep. Meme coins can skyrocket or crash through the earth’s core.
Don’t be greedy. Plan to sell most around 0.002, accept losses and exit. No longer fight stubbornly against coins driven by news. Surviving this wave is already the market showing some mercy. Under leverage, first think about liquidation, then about profit.
Lesson from $ONE: News stimuli only change the rhythm, not the risk; position size and stop loss are the bottom line. Crawling back from hell to the human world, want to cry, but more importantly remember the pain.
A good fighter must first defend; without eliminating risk, don’t lightly attack; if the trend exists, the wind will rise in its own time.9.24｜Evening Briefing
Before dinner this afternoon, I had already secured profits from my short-term short positions. Now looking at the market, it seems mid-to-long-term opportunities have emerged again.
BTC just pulled back from a high and found support around 83,600–84,000; it is now back near 84,400. ETH has also reclaimed the 2,680 level. The market's previous pressure mainly came from strong PMI, the US dollar, and rising US Treasury yields, but prices have completed a rapid release phase.
Technical aspect: Platform breakout, short-term structure starting to repair.
Capital aspect: Clear support near 84,000, watching for a pullback confirmation.
Sentiment aspect: Yesterday was panic selling, but today is starting to recover; this is when chips are most easily shaken out.
So my approach is very clear:
The previous short positions have been closed for profit; now after the breakout, I can reverse positions.
Short-term focus is on the pullback after the breakout; mid-to-long-term still follows the trend.
No chasing highs, no bottom guessing, follow the trend after the platform breakout. *Version 1 - Clean Trader Post:* Only one thought right now: Reduce near breakeven on the dip. There is no real strength left to push up at the moment. My $ETH short at 2640 is still open, price is chopping around 2680. After the drop from 2806, most of the floating loss has recovered. On the 1H chart, MA5 / MA10 / MA20 are all squeezed together. Multiple rebounds failed to restart the uptrend. Short-term structure has changed from one-sided rally to high-level tug-of-war. 2685-2700 is now the k$CORE Why is it "not thriving"?
The fundamental reason lies in the trust black hole that can no longer be filled.
"Ghost tokens" hanging overhead: In the validator vulnerability incident at the end of August, although the hard fork destroyed about 150 million abnormal tokens, approximately 69 million tokens had already been transferred to external wallets before the fork and cannot be recovered. These chips, which could hit the market at any time, are a sword hanging over all holders.
Lack of transparency: The core questions the community is asking—how long was the vulnerability lurking? Which nodes were involved? Where did the 69 million tokens go?—have not been fully answered by the project team to date. This lack of transparency is the fundamental reason institutional funds refuse to enter.
Exchanges vote with their feet: Although some exchanges have resumed deposits and withdrawals, CoinEx closed trading on September 18. This split state of "partially resuming while delisting" is a true reflection of the industry's varying trust levels in it.500U Challenge to 1 Million | Day 12
Initial Capital: 500U
Current Net Value: 587.86U
Profit/Loss: +87.86U (Total) | -126.7U (Today)
Profit Rate: +17.57% (Total) | -17.73% (Today)
-------
Yesterday's pullback was quite heavy. Actually, when it hit 87,000 again, I already felt the risk was high, so I closed most of my long positions at 87,126. For SOL, I closed most of the long positions at 119.45. But when it dropped again near 85,800, I added to my positions. This time, because BTC was more stable, I increased the position size to 9x leverage. I didn't expect such a severe drop. SOL, due to its higher volatility, was still controlled at 5x leverage. So the biggest loss yesterday was on BTC.
Lesson learned: next time, control the position size to match the net value. No matter how good the upward trend is, the position size must be controlled accordingly and not enlarged. Fortunately, my overall leverage was within 8x, or it would have been disastrous. With proper position control, even if there is a pullback, the loss won't be this big. Always remember, too high leverage won't last long. Today I saw a "genius trader" blogger who went all-in with 10U and made 31,000 RMB in a few days. But after the sudden big drop last night, his account is left with only 2.85U today.
The above is my personal trading experience record and does not constitute investment advice! $BTC $ETH