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小龙先生
小龙先生
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BTC跌至80K不是不可能,只是概率降低了一点。 今天的清算规模说明多头很拥挤。过去24小时加密市场总清算6.17亿美元,其中多头占了5.46亿。BTC单小时清算1.16亿,多单占97.66%。Hyperliquid上7个巨鲸地址被连环爆仓。这说明之前做多的人太多,一旦下跌就会引发连锁反应。 宏观压力是真实存在的。 10年期美债收益率突破5.12%,创2007年以来最高。油价维持在103美元上方,通胀压力没有解除。只要收益率继续走高,BTC作为无息资产就会被压制。 🐉小龙判断 我认为,价格短期在82K-85K之间震荡的概率最大,今天最低82800已经测试了下方支撑。 如果84K被有效跌破,下一道支撑在81K-82K。 80K可能只有在出现新的宏观利空,比如10月加息预期突然升温、油价再次暴涨的情况下才会被测试。 今天已经清了5.46亿的多头,杠杆风险释放了一部分。 恐慌贪婪指数71,市场情绪仍然“贪婪”,说明还没有到“恐慌割肉”的程度。如果情绪从贪婪转向恐慌,80K的测试才真正有可能发生,那就是进场抄底的时机到了! 让多空双方博弈一段时间,我们再耐心等待一两天看看。
小龙先生
小龙先生
"Three-Dimensional Trading System | Latest BTC Market Observation and Analysis" ---- Can the expected bottom at 80K still come? I have been monitoring Bitcoin's price trend because this correction is just a healthy pullback and an opportunity to enter the bull market launch. After the U.S. stock market opened, ETF institutions started buying BTC again. Today, the price dropped to a low near 82,800, reaching the strong support level around 83K below, leaving little room to the expected target price of 80K. The price around 84,000 is currently stuck, with weak bullish volume and large whales watching... First, 84K-84.5K is the cost concentration zone for long-term holders. Glassnode data shows that a large supply cost for long-term holders is concentrated in the 84K-84.5K USD range. This is not just a random number but a real on-chain chip concentration zone. As long as the price can stay above this range, there is natural support below. Second, ETF institutions are still flowing in. Although the price fell from 87K to 82.8K, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has still seen net inflows for five consecutive days, with $347 million inflow on September 23 alone, totaling about $2.65 billion over five days. This indicates institutions are not panicking and are still buying, continuing to buy now. Furthermore, bullish leveraged funds have already been cleared in a round. Open interest for BTC contracts on Hyperliquid has dropped by 20.77%, and funding rates have cooled down accordingly. This means the previously leveraged long positions chasing highs have been liquidated.

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