
#AugPayrollsBeat
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About AugPayrollsBeat
US Aug nonfarm payrolls rose 162K, far above expectations of under 60K, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Forecasts had ranged from a 25K drop to a 121K gain, so the print cleared the top of the range. Swaps now price a September Fed hike above 60%, versus roughly 50% on CME futures beforehand. CPI lands Sep 11 and the FOMC meets Sep 15 to 16. BofA calls payrolls the appetizer and CPI the main course and still expects a hike; Morgan Stanley sees a hold, with August core CPI at 0.23% MoM.
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In den USA wurden im August 162.000 neue Arbeitsplätze außerhalb der Landwirtschaft geschaffen, was deutlich über den Erwartungen liegt
Wu berichtet, dass die saisonbereinigte Zahl der Nicht-Landwirtschaftlichen Beschäftigten in den USA im August um 162.000 gestiegen ist, während der Markt einen Anstieg um 56.000 erwartet hatte, der Vormonat wurde mit einem Rückgang von 23.000 angegeben; die Arbeitslosenquote lag bei 4,1 %, was den Erwartungen entspricht. Die durchschnittlichen Stundenlöhne stiegen im August im Jahresvergleich um 3,1 %, was über den erwarteten 3,0 % liegt; im Monatsvergleich stiegen sie um 0,3 %, was den Erwartu
September 🔥 & August 💥 2026
A stronger-than-expected rebound in U.S. nonfarm payrolls could add fresh pressure to the Fed’s September rate decision. Markets had already been pricing in elevated odds of a 25-basis-point hike, and the surprisingly strong jobs report may further fuel those expectations.
With inflation data still ahead, the September FOMC meeting remains a key event for risk assets and crypto.
#OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #BTCGoldRatioHigh #AugPayrollsBeat

September 🔥 & August 💥 2026
A stronger-than-expected rebound in U.S. nonfarm payrolls could add fresh pressure to the Fed’s September rate decision. Markets had already been pricing in elevated odds of a 25-basis-point hike, and the surprisingly strong jobs report may further fuel those expectations.
With inflation data still ahead, the September FOMC meeting remains a key event for risk assets and crypto.
#AugPayrollsBeat #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC
Why did US stocks, bonds, gold, silver, Bitcoin and Ethereum suddenly pump at the same time?
It’s not random — the Fed just gave the market a reason to breathe.
The probability of a rate hike at the September 16 Fed meeting dropped from nearly 70% yesterday to just over 50%.
So what changed?
Fed Governor Chris Waller basically sent a more dovish message.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC
🚨 Why did US stocks, bonds, gold, silver, Bitcoin and Ethereum suddenly pump at the same time?
It’s not random — the Fed just gave the market a reason to breathe.
The probability of a rate hike at the September 16 Fed meeting dropped from nearly 70% yesterday to just over 50%.
So what changed?
Fed Governor Chris Waller basically sent a more dovish message.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC
#WallerEyesAugCPI Waller’s latest comments make the September decision feel more conditional than the market was pricing a few days ago 👀
He said he favors holding if August inflation continues to improve, but could support a hike if the data comes in strong. Next week’s CPI and PPI will be central to that call, while he described the labor market as satisfactory.
Jobless claims came in at 206K, close to expectations and still within this year’s familiar range. Meanwhile, CME odds of a 25bp hike fell to 50.2% from above 70%, as Treasury yields slipped and the dollar weakened 📉
To me, that shift shows how little conviction the market currently has. Expectations are moving sharply even though the underlying data has changed only gradually.
Tonight’s payroll report should add another clue—but inflation still looks like the final test before the September meeting.
$BTC traders have a new number to watch: US jobs.
Fed Governor Waller says he could support holding rates in September if inflation keeps cooling, while a hotter inflation print could still trigger a hike.
Now all eyes are on August payrolls.
A weak jobs report could push hike expectations lower and support risk assets.
A strong print could revive the hawkish case.
**BTC bullish or bearish after the data? 👀**
#WallerEyesAugCPI


The probability of a rate hike in September continues to rise
After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged directly from 35% to nearly 60%-66%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a rate hike has reached 66.1%. The non-farm payroll data this Friday (September 4) will be a key catalyst—if employment exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectation will be confirmed, and the market may take another hit. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood

US August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, still above 50. July JOLTS openings were 7.27M, below the 7.31M consensus but up from June's revised 7.18M. The data are mixed: factory momentum slowed, but labor demand has not collapsed. CME pricing puts the chance of a 25bp September hike near 66%-66.9%. August payrolls arrive Sep 4 at 12:30 UTC. For BTC and equities, the key is whether the report reprices the dollar, Treasury yields and risk appetite.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds
BREAKING: Commerce Secretary Lutnick expects US rates to hold steady and begin falling within 6 months.
$BTC

🚨 NFP BOMB 💣 — 162K vs 56K Expected!
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls — August
Actual: +162K
Expected: +56K
Previous: -23K
Beat: Nearly 3× expectations 🚀
Private Payrolls: +127K vs +45K expected
Wages YoY: 3.1% vs 3.0% expected
ISKA MATLAB KYA? 👀#AugPayrollsBeat #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC