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BTC Tests 50-Week Moving Average: Bear Market Ends, Confirmation Needed Next Week Friday, August 28, 2026 Q3 · Issue 104 Aspirin · A Cyclical Analysis from the Perspective of a Data Scientist BTC rebounded by about 24% last week and for the first time this week, it truly reached the 50-week moving average of this bear market. The easiest mistake to make at this moment is to directly label the touch of the weekly MA50 as a "breakout." In July 2018, during the initial test in 2015, and again in 2022, the market rebounded near the 50-week moving average after breaking through the bearish resistance zone. The commonality between 2019 and 2023 was that after the weekly line broke above the resistance, the following week continued to rise, without immediately giving back the gains from the breakout. Therefore, my judgment is that evidence of the bear market ending is forming, but it has not yet been confirmed. If the market quickly falls back below the 50-week moving average next week (early September), this rally will still resemble a bear market rebound. Only if it closes above the 50-week moving average for several consecutive weeks, with follow-through gains or pullbacks that do not break below it, will the probability of the bear market ending significantly increase. The closing of the weekly chart over the next one to two weeks will provide more answers than any slogan. Of course, if the market changes its structure, I will also adjust my judgment.$BTC $ETH