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The Fed's September rate decision lands Sept 16 at 18:00 UTC. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and HSBC have shifted to a 25bps hike; 86 of 101 economists in a Reuters survey agree, market pricing near 90%. If delivered, fed funds moves to 3.75%-4.00%. Key data: August PPI 5.4% YoY, CPI 0.4% MoM. Goldman sees this as the Fed avoiding a pricing reversal rather than reacting to worsening fundamentals. Trump remains opposed. If the Fed holds, how it explains the inflation-policy gap will be watched.
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Kommer Federal Reserve att "höja räntan kontinuerligt"? Kommer "stramningscykeln" från slutet av 1980-talet att upprepas?
Originaltitel: "Kommer Federal Reserve att "höja räntan i följd"? Kommer åtstramningscykeln från slutet av 1980-talet att upprepas?"
Källa: Wall Street Insights
Citibank-rapporten påpekar att den nuvarande makroekonomiska miljön är mycket lik åtstramningscykeln 1988-1989, då ekonomin förblev motståndskraftig, inflationspressen gradvis ökade, och därefter avtog den ekonomiska aktiviteten innan politiken blev mer expansiv. Under den åtstramningscykeln höjde Federal Reserve räntan 16 gånger i f

🚨 $BTC HAS A NEW PROBLEM: OIL
Bitcoin is around $77.6K while Brent crude has surged above $107, adding fresh inflation pressure just before the Fed’s decision this week. Markets now see roughly an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
Higher oil can keep inflation elevated, which makes easier Fed policy harder to justify. That puts Bitcoin and other risk assets under pressure.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq
#TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

$BTC
This week's FOMC announcement is out. Will the rate hike actually happen?
Currently, the most likely scenario is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25bp.
This could have a significant impact, causing a sharp drop in risk assets like $BTC and $ETH.
At the same time, the US dollar is expected to strengthen
🚨 Bitcoin (BTC) Today: Bulls Face a Major Test
$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin is trading around $77,700, but the bulls are still struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level. BTC recently reached a three-month high near $82,163, making the $80K–$82K zone a key resistance area. �
Barron's +1
The biggest catalyst this week is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Rising inflation and expectations of a rate hike are supporting the dollar and putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
Wednesday is the one that matters. FOMC decision at 2pm ET, and markets are pricing a hike to 3.75-4.00% after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech
Everyone's focused on the number. I think the dot plot matters more. A hike that's already priced changes little. A dot plot signalling more hikes into next year is what would actually hurt.
$BTC 77.8K and $ETH 2,520 are my lines. Below those, the reaction is real. Above, it's noise.
Positioned or flat into Wednesday?#FOMCRateCallThisWeek

🚨 $BTC HAS A NEW PROBLEM: OIL
Bitcoin is around $77.6K while Brent crude has surged above $107, adding fresh inflation pressure just before the Fed’s decision this week. Markets now see roughly an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
Higher oil can keep inflation elevated, which makes easier Fed policy harder to justify. That puts Bitcoin and other risk assets under pressure.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq
#TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

Super week is here, what is the market really trading?
Many think the market is waiting for a rate hike,
but the rate hike has already been mostly priced in on the charts.
What is being traded now is whether September will mark the start of a new tightening cycle.
If this rate hike is 25BP and the dot plot shows further tightening potential within the year, then risk assets need to be repriced.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

Short-term holders have significantly increased their $BTC selling.
Two major events are ahead:
• September 15 - Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is expected
• September 16 - FOMC meeting
Volatility could rise sharply around these events.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics
$BTC HAS A FED PROBLEM IN 3 DAYS
Markets are pricing 78% chance of a Fed rate hike.
Higher rates can mean tighter liquidity not exactly what $BTC needs when risk appetite is already fragile.
But don’t panic over the headline.
If BTC holds strong → bullish resilience.
If BTC gets rejected → downside pressure could accelerate.
The reaction matters more than the probability. Watch the price, not the fear.$ETH @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics
Fed hike odds are near 87%. Sept 16 at 2PM is the moment. If delivered, it would be the first hike under Warsh and the Fed's first since 2023.
After holding at 3.50%-3.75% in July with a 9-3 vote, the FOMC heads into this week almost fully priced for a 25bps hike. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.3%, and PPI rose 5.4% YoY. Energy remains part of the pressure. Three members already dissented in favor of a hike last time.
The political backdrop is loud:
· Trump has renewed calls for lower rates
· Hassett said the White House would accept the Fed's decision, while arguing inflation is decelerating
· Several Wall Street desks shifted toward a September hike call
But the bigger question is communication. Warsh has stripped back forward guidance since taking the chair, and his decision not to submit his own dot in June was an unusual break from recent Fed practice. September brings a fresh dot plot, but the statement may again leave fewer explicit hints. Markets may have to decode the press conference in real time.
One contrarian read: Brookings' Robin Brooks argues a hike here may be less about classic tightening and more about anchoring the 10-year yield and restoring credibility. If that is right, the crypto impact may depend more on yields and the dollar than on the headline rate move.
BTC trades around $77K, below the $80K area it failed to hold in recent attempts. US spot BTC ETFs have seen four straight sessions of outflows, even though September remains net positive so far.
The rate decision matters. The dot plot and what Warsh says after may matter more.
Which matters more for BTC this week: the rate decision, the dot plot, or Warsh's press conference?
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
Tuesday’s CLARITY Act procedural vote is widely expected to fail. An unexpected pass would be a major bullish surprise, as bearish risks are already priced in.
The real test is 2AM Thursday’s FOMC decision, with nearly 90% odds of a 25bp hike.
Geopolitics and energy keep inflation sticky; a single hike is no shock.
The critical factor is the dot‑plot. If it signals another December hike, it will reprice higher‑for‑longer rates and hit $BTC hard.
