#PCEAndPayrollsWeek

A packed US macro calendar could reset rate expectations and volatility this week. First, August JOLTS arrives Sept 29 at 10:00 AM ET, offering an early read on labor demand through job openings, hiring and quits. Then August Personal Income and Outlays lands Sept 30 at 8:30 AM ET, including headline and core PCE inflation. This release also begins BEA’s annual update of the national accounts, so markets may watch not only the latest inflation print but also revisions to the historical path for income, spending and prices. September nonfarm payrolls follow Oct 2 at 8:30 AM ET. August payrolls rose by 162K, while unemployment held at 4.1% and labor-force participation edged up to 61.6%. This time, the headline jobs number will be only part of the story. Wage growth, unemployment, participation and revisions to prior months could all shape the market reaction. The Fed raised the target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16. Its latest projections showed a 4.1% median policy rate for year-end 2026, leaving another move possible, but not guaranteed, before the next FOMC meeting on Oct 27-28. Fed communication could add context. Governor Michael Barr discusses the economic outlook on Sept 29, Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller speak on Sept 30, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson discusses the US economy and monetary policy on Oct 1. Potential market setups: · Sticky PCE + resilient hiring could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations, lifting yields and the dollar while pressuring rate-sensitive assets. · Softer inflation + weaker labor data could reduce near-term tightening expectations, though details and revisions will matter. · A mixed outcome, such as softer payrolls but firm wages, could produce a less straightforward reaction across Treasuries, US stocks, gold and BTC. BTC remains sensitive to shifts in real yields, dollar liquidity and risk appetite, so the Fed’s interpretation of the data may matter as much as the headline numbers. Which matters most for BTC this week: inflation, jobs or the Fed’s reaction function? #PCEAndPayrollsWeek

#PCEAndPayrollsWeek This week feels like a two-part test for the Fed’s next move 🗓️ August PCE arrives on September 30, followed by September payrolls on October 2. With inflation still elevated, the economy holding up and Treasury yields already high, both reports could shift expectations quickly. The tricky part is that strong data may not feel entirely positive right now. Persistent inflation could support further tightening, while another resilient jobs report might give the Fed more room to keep rates restrictive. On the other hand, softer numbers could ease pressure on yields but raise fresh questions about economic momentum. Fed officials Barr and Jefferson are also scheduled to speak, so markets will be interpreting both the data and the messaging around it. I’m curious which report ends up carrying more weight this time: inflation or employment 👀

⚡️ Key Economic Events This Week: Tuesday - September Consumer Confidence data, August JOLTS Job Openings data Wednesday - August PCE Inflation data, US Q2 2026 GDP data Thursday - September ISM Manufacturing PMI data Friday - September Jobs Report 22 Fed speaker events lined up this week, making it a packed week for markets. Which release are you watching most closely? $FIL $ZEC $SUI

Inflation first. Jobs next. This could be a big week for the Fed narrative. PCE and payrolls are two reports I’ll be watching together rather than separately. PCE tells us whether inflation pressure is improving, while payrolls give us a clearer picture of how much strength is left in the labor market. Personally, I think the most interesting scenario would be sticky inflation combined with strong jobs. That would make it much harder for the Fed to justify easing policy anytime soon. On the other hand, softer inflation together with weaker hiring could completely change the rate conversation again. For BTC and equities, I’m less interested in guessing each number and more interested in how Treasury yields and the dollar react once both reports are out. One report can create a headline. Two reports pointing in the same direction can change the whole macro story. 👀 This week, I’m watching the combination not just the individual numbers. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek $BTC

PCE and payrolls will test whether markets can keep treating resilience as benign. Elevated inflation alongside high Treasury yields leaves little room for a soft reading in either release: stronger data may sharpen policy sensitivity, while softer data must be convincingly broad to ease it. For BTC, the cross-asset reaction may matter more than the headline alone. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek

The Week Ahead: Monday: Start of the @BTCtreasuries Conference in NY. @Cryptonomista keynote at 11.55 AM Tuesday: Australian Central Bank expected to raise rates by +0.25% to 4.60% Wednesday: U.S. Core PCE Friday: BTC mining difficulty expected to increase by +1.6% to 134.9T Catch the full details in our Bitcoin Economic Calendar for the week of September 28th:

📍 Market Levels to Monitor * $BTC — $83,600: Support near $82,500; reclaiming $85,000 could improve short-term structure. * $ETH — $2,680: Holding $2,600 remains important, while $2,800 is the next resistance area. * $SOL — $121: Watch $118–$120 support and a potential recovery toward $128. 📰 Market Catalyst: U.S. PCE inflation data, JOLTS, and Friday’s employment report are scheduled this week. Micron’s September 30 earnings will also put AI-related market sentiment in focus. The latest market picture shows BTC and ETH trading lower while SOL remains comparatively firm. 🎯 Trading Focus: Let the market confirm its direction. Monitor support reactions, volume, and breakout strength before taking a position. Avoid emotional entries and unnecessary FOMO. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoMarket

One week, four major data points and plenty of Fed commentary. Markets are about to get a serious dose of macro data. • Tuesday: Consumer Confidence + JOLTS • Wednesday: PCE Inflation + Q2 GDP • Thursday: ISM Manufacturing PMI • Friday: September Jobs Report On top of that, 22 Fed speaker events could add another layer of volatility as markets digest the numbers. The big ones for me are PCE and the Jobs Report both could shape expectations around the Fed’s next move. Which data point are you watching most closely? 📊

PCE And Payrolls Week The market is heading into a week where data could matter more than narratives. 📊 PCE inflation and upcoming labor-market data can quickly change how traders think about rates, liquidity and risk. The interesting part isn't just the number itself it's how markets react to the number. Sometimes the reaction tells a bigger story than the headline. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #Markets

Three dates decide this week. Sept 30: US core PCE. July printed 3.3%. Oct 2: Non-farm payrolls. Oct 2: Hester Peirce leaves the SEC. A hot PCE pushes October hike odds and yields higher. $87K if the data cools. $82K if it doesn't.